Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/17/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
750 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 747 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Some minor adjustments to the grids this evening. Isolated thunderstorms have developed over southwestern Weld County, with small hail and wind gusts to 40 mph possible. These storms will continue to track northeast this evening. The focus should remain north of the Denver area, but will keep isolated pops in the grids this evening. This is handled well in the grids so no changes there. I added areas of smoke to the grids as well for tonight and Friday, especially for areas south of the I-70 corridor. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Broad southwesterly flow aloft, on the western periphery of an expanding upper level ridge, will remain in place across the area through Friday, while an upper trough slowly pushes onto the west coast. Closer to the surface, we`re seeing gradual moisture advection into the plains this afternoon with surface dews in the upper 40s to upper 50s east of the urban corridor. A few shallow clouds have developed over the mountains and Palmer Divide in the last hour, and we should see a gradual increase in cloud cover this evening. There`s still a bit of uncertainty surrounding this evening`s weather. The HRRR is slowly joining the high-resolution model consensus with some high-based convection developing over the Foothills around 5 or 6pm this afternoon, which then drifts across the metro and into Weld County. Initially this airmass will be deeply mixed and fairly dry, meaning gusty winds will be possible in the metro if a storm develops. The better/more moist airmass from Greeley east towards Akron looks to remain weakly capped this evening, but a conditional hail/wind threat exists in this area with any CI that can occur there. With continued south-southwesterly flow aloft, a better plume of monsoonal moisture will slowly spread into the forecast area, especially across the higher terrain. The brunt of the moisture should remain to the west, closer to the four corners region, where IVT and specific humidity will be above the 95th percentile. Still, the increase in moisture should be enough for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the high country by the afternoon hours. There will be a limited threat of burn area flash flooding... see the Hydro section below for additional information. The last challenge of the day will be temperatures and heat related impacts across the plains. Mid-level temperatures should be on the order of 3-5C warmer than today... reaching 19C in the mid-afternoon. The result should be temperatures 4-9F warmer than today`s highs. Mid-level SSEerly flow will increase tomorrow as well with a few gusts of 25-30 mph possible in the afternoon hours. With afternoon highs reaching the upper 90s, we may see some heat impacts across the metro and in portions of the plains. This is especially true across portions of the Denver metro and along the I-76 corridor where the HRRR and ECM both have temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s by 11am. The real wildcard in the forecast is the presence of smoke. Recent HRRR smoke forecasts keep smoke in the area through much of the day which will also lead to additional health concerns... though this also may limit surface heating a little. With all that said, we`ve opted for a Heat Advisory across our forecast area with health related concerns from the heat and smoke, especially on a day when many people are participating in outdoor activities near peak heating early in the summer season. This is also well supported by the WR Experimental Heat Risk that shows widespread high risk (level 3 of 4) across the metro and plains. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 High amplitude pattern developing across Colorado through the weekend with high pressure ridge aloft building across the central plains states while a strong low pressure area over Washington, Oregon and Northern California. This regime will result in Colorado sandwiched between the two with a south to southwest flow aloft. This flow will bring increasing subtropical moisture into Colorado, especially in the mountains from Friday evening through the weekend. Given the mostly southerly flow at mountain top there won`t be much transition of storms out over the plains on Friday evening but possibly spilling out onto the plains more so on Saturday afternoon and evening. The overall severe threat will be on the lower side with CAPE values generally 500-1000j/kg and unidirectional shear profile. Main main impact will be heavy rain and gusty winds threat, especially over the fire burn scars. Precipitable water values will range from .8 to around an inch of water for both Saturday and Sunday. This will lead to a bit higher chances for flash flood concerns, mainly over the burn scars. On Sunday, the flash flood threat may be even less with faster storm motions of 20-30kt as the upper trof moves into the Great Basin. On Monday, the main trof will rapidly move into the northern high plains with somewhat drier air moving into the mountains with a less threat of flash flooding. For Tuesday through Thursday, expect drier conditions in a post trof regime and a return to drier westerly flow aloft. Temperatures will also begin to warm up by mid week with readings back around 90 degrees on the plains. The coolest day will be on Tuesday behind the trof with readings mainly in the 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 637 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 VFR through the TAF period. There is a very slight chance of shower/storm or two developing near DEN prior to 04z this evening. Confidence in this occurring is low, but if anything develops there could be a brief period of variable/gusty winds. Winds should be fairly light overnight tonight before strengthening out of the southeast late Friday morning. Gusty southeast/southerly winds expected Friday afternoon/evening with gusts to 30 kts possible. Isolated shower/storm possible again late Friday afternoon primarily west of I-25, so only added vcsh to BJC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected Friday with humidities near 15%. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the plains. There will still be elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across the northeast plains of Colorado this weekend with low humidities and breezy conditions. There will be a gradual increase in moisture this weekend which will help to alleviate fire weather concerns this weekend along with continued green-up. By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week look for drier and warmer conditions again by Wednesday with only isolated date day showers over higher terrain. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 A limited threat of burn area flash flooding is expected Friday as a plume of better moisture slowly pushes into the state. Precipitable water will be above normal across the mountains... near 0.5-0.75"... along with weak instability. There should be widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain by the afternoon. Storm motions look just fast enough (near 15kt) but can`t rule out some issues over the burn areas given the convective coverage expected. Expect increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and adjacent plains from Friday through the weekend. This will lead to a low threat of flash flooding over the burn scars, especially for Saturday. The flow on Sunday will be a little faster so storms will be moving at a bigger clip. Drier weather will gradually return later Monday and Tuesday. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for COZ038>040- 042>045-048>051. && $$ UPDATE...Cooper SHORT TERM...Hiris LONG TERM...Entrekin AVIATION...Cooper FIRE WEATHER...Hiris/Entrekin HYDROLOGY...Hiris/Entrekin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1011 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two, will move across the region tonight as more humid air arrives. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. A few storms may be strong to severe, with the greatest risk across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Much cooler this weekend with below normal temperatures, along with a few showers at times Saturday night into Sunday. Drier conditions with near normal temperatures should return for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 1010 PM update... Quiet evening so far across SNE with widely scattered convection to the north and west within the low level theta-e ridge axis. This higher theta-e air will move east across the region overnight. This combined with a modest low level jet and increasing elevated instability moving in from the west will result in scattered showers and perhaps a few t-storms developing overnight. Latest HRRR and 3km NAM indicate highest risk across SE New Eng coast in the vicinity of the low level jet axis. Otherwise stratus will become more widespread overnight with patchy fog developing as higher dewpoint air advects northward. Not much change in temps overnight given southerly breezes and increasing dewpoints, with lows mainly low/mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Highlights... * Very warm Fri with highs in the middle to upper 80s away from the south coast, Cape and Islands * A few strong to severe t-storms possible in the afternoon, but the threat is conditional and not expecting threat to be widespread Friday... Any left over activity should be exiting the New England coast by early Friday morning. Subsidence behind this shortwave should allow at least partial sunshine to quickly develop. This coupled with southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front will allow for a very warm day. High temps should top out in the middle to upper 80s away from the south coast. In fact, not out of the question that a few spots flirt with 90. Gusty southwest flow will keep temps in the middle 70s to the lower 80s on the very immediate south coast, Cape and Islands with a modified marine airmass. The big concern will be the threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon associated with a pre-frontal trough and cold front. We will be dealing with decent instability as surface based Capes climbing to between 1500 and 2500 J/KG. In addition...effective bulk shear on the order of 40 to 50 knots is favorable for severe weather. However, a big limiting factor will be an abundance of mid level dry air. This will attempt to disrupt the updrafts and cut their cores off from growing too high. Given at least modest instability Friday afternoon along with very impressive effective bulk shear there is certainly the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. However, this threat is conditional in the dry mid level air being able to be overcome. We also think this threat will be more isolated/localized than widespread. The high resolution CAMs differ a bit on their simulations, but they tend to indicate a scattered line of activity instead of a solid line as a result of the dry air. The ensemble updraft helicity swaths tend to be higher towards eastern sections. This is also true when looking at the CSU machine learning probabilities. This is where moisture appears to be a bit deeper. So in a nutshell, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon with the greatest risk across eastern MA/RI. This is a conditional threat and will depend upon whether the dry air can be overcome. Main risk will be localized strong to damaging wind gusts given steep low level lapse rates with hail a secondary threat. The main time frame looks to be roughly from noon to 6 pm. Friday night... Dry and cooler weather will work into the region behind the cold front Friday night. Low temps should bottom out the middle 50s to the lower 60s by daybreak. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights... * Below normal temperatures this weekend, with most locations remaining dry. * Tranquil weather with moderating temps to start the new work week. Details... A low pressure lingering near Nova Scotia, and a high pressure near James Bay Canada, will maintain a flow of cooler air into southern New England for most of this weekend. Expecting temperatures to be nearly 10 degrees below normal in spots. The core of the upper level low pressure passes by our region Saturday night into Sunday, which will be the period of our greatest risk for some instability showers. Despite the cold air aloft, am not overly concerned about thunderstorms at this moment. Drier and warmer conditions expected to return early next week. It does appear that a blocking pattern in the mid level flow sets up over the North Atlantic, preventing this upper level low from moving much farther east than the Maritimes. There is considerable uncertainty in the details regarding this feature, leading to a low confidence forecast in the details for southern New England after Tuesday. The GFS, in particular, is the most aggressive in keeping this mid level low closer to the East Coast. This will have implications for how quickly a series of fronts can approach or cross our region Tuesday into Thursday. Kept the forecast mostly dry at this time, mainly due to the lack of focused humidity. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update... Tonight...Moderate confidence. MVFR cigs already developing across western MA & CT this afternoon will gradually overspread eastern MA/RI this evening and into the overnight hours. Localized IFR ceilings may develop across the interior too. Scattered showers and a few embedded t-storms are possible late this evening into the overnight hours. S wind gusts 15 to 25 knots with the strongest of those winds likely near the coast. Friday...Moderate confidence. MVFR to localized IFR conditions early Friday morning will improve to VFR in most locations by lunchtime if not earlier. The exception will be Nantucket and perhaps portions of the Cape, where IFR-LIFR conditions in low clouds and fog will be an issue with moist southwest flow off the ocean. The other concern will be scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon with an associated cold front. A few storms may be strong with the greatest risk across eastern MA/RI, but those are not expected to be widespread more of an isolated threat. SW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots will shift to the W during the afternoon. Friday night...High Confidence. Any remaining low clouds and fog patches across Nantucket and perhaps parts of the Cape will burn off early in the evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions with WNW winds of 5-15 knots. KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF. Showers overnight, as ceilings become MVFR/IFR at times before 12Z. Conditions gradually improved between 12 and 18Z before shower and thunderstorm chances increase around 19Z. KBDL Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF.Showers overnight, as ceilings become MVFR/IFR at times before 12Z. Conditions gradually improved between 12 and 16Z before shower and thunderstorm chances increase around 18Z. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night through Juneteenth: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...High Confidence. A modest southerly LLJ will continue to generate southerly wind gusts up to 25 knots tonight. Therefore, Small Craft Advisory headlines continue for all waters. Friday...High Confidence. Southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots expected ahead of an approaching cold front along with 3-6 foot seas across the open waters. SCA headlines will continue for most waters. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the waters during the afternoon/early evening. Friday night...High Confidence. Winds shift to the WNW behind the cold front with gusts generally below 25 knots. However, lingering marginal SCA seas are expected across the southern- most outer-waters for the first half of the night. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Saturday Night through Juneteenth: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ231-233-234. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ232-235-237- 250. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ251. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Frank NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...Frank LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/Frank MARINE...Belk/Frank
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
531 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight - Friday Night) Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Warm & dry conditions prevail across southeast Wyo and the western Neb Panhandle w/ upper-level ridging continuing to support strong/ deep subsidence across the area. As the ridge axis shifts eastward later this evening, the models suggest several pieces of mid-level short wave energy traversing the flow along the edge of the ridge. H7 theta-e advection becomes quite strong in the 04-08z time frame with the GFS suggesting surface dew points climbing into the 55 to 60 degree F range & MUCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg by 06z. Some high resolution guidance including the HRRR suggests some potential for convection to move northward into far southeast Wyo and the south- western Neb Panhandle from Colorado late tonight. These storms may be accompanied by a threat for small hail and gusty winds. General ridging remains in place for Friday with H7 temperatures remaining +18 to +20 deg C. Temperatures will quickly soar into the lower to middle 90s (near 100 F in the Platte River Valley) by late morning or early afternoon, warmest along/east of I-25. Scattered/numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in response to lee troughing along the Laramie Range by early afternoon. Forecast soundings are showing deep inverted-v profiles w/ the LCL above the 0C level and very weak flow in the sub-cloud layer. The latest DY2 MRGL Risk is looking good for the possibility of 55-65 MPH wind gusts with some of this activity. .LONG TERM...(Saturday - Thursday) Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 The challenges of the long term forecast concern the heat wave continuing through the weekend, and the monsoon-like surge of moisture that will return precipitation to the forecast. The major player for the weekend weather will be the impressive upper level low over the West Coast and highly amplified downstream ridge located over the central plains. At the beginning of the long term period on Saturday morning, the anomalous upper level low will be located roughly over southwest Oregon. The digging trough over the west will help to significantly amplify the downstream ridge, the axis of which is expected to be located near the border of the Dakotas and Minnesota by Saturday morning. 500-mb height anomalies is expected to be over 3 standard deviations below the climatological mean along the west coast, and over 2 standard deviations above the normal over the northern Great Plains. The result will be deep southerly flow in between the trough and ridge across the four corners states and into Wyoming. Southerly flow will tap into ample moisture sources including the eastern tropical Pacific, juiced by the expected traverse of Hurricane Blas south of the mouth of the Gulf of California, as well as the Gulf of Mexico. this will result in a monsoon-like surge of moisture, penetrating substantially further north than is typical for mid June. In fact, NAEFS mean precipitable water shows values over southern Wyoming reaching the 99th percentile of climatology late Saturday into Sunday. The main local impacts of this large-scale setup will be continuing heat and increasing rainfall potential. On Saturday, temperatures will climb well above normal again underneath the highly amplified ridge. However, with the core of the ridge shifting slightly east, high temperatures are expected to be generally a couple degrees cooler than Friday. 700-mb temperatures will moderate slightly to around +15C while enhanced cloud cover especially west of the Laramie range helps keep temperatures down slightly. Predominantly southerly flow may also prevent significant downslope warming enhancement. Thus while a very warm day is expected, the current forecast keeps highs several degrees away from daily records at most locations. The main plume of moisture pushes into our area on Saturday with precipitable water values generally between 0.8 and 1.0 inches per the GEFS forecast. The best lift and column saturation will be over western portions of the CWA, while low level moisture may be lacking somewhat further east. Instability is limited, but the CAPE profiles are tall and skinny, which points to more of a heavy rain threat as well as potentially some gusty outflow winds if convection is able to move out over the drier environment. General storm motion will be to the NNE with cloud layer wind speeds of 20-25 kts. The GEFS sets up the moisture plume slightly further west than the European ensembles, which leads to a more favorable trajectory across the lower elevations of the Colorado Plateau rather than losing more moisture to the higher peaks across southern and central Colorado. The ECMWF solution has slightly lower PWAT and much less QPF over our area. If the GFS solution ends up becoming favored, there could be a flash flood threat on the Mullen burn scar. WPC has highlighted Carbon and Albany counties with a Marginal risk of exceeding flash flood guidance for Saturday. On Sunday, the trough pushes further inland, tilting the moisture plume more to the northeast. The heat will also ease as the trough nears from the west. Much drier air is expected to start to push in across Utah and southwest Wyoming, but most of our area should remain fairly moist through Sunday. PWATs creep up slightly over the Nebraska panhandle with slightly better low level moisture, although it still does not look particularly impressive. Nonetheless, it does look like Sunday will be the best opportunity for precipitation across the high plains. Instability is forecast to be very modest which should preclude a hail threat, but we still could see some localized heavy rain or gusty winds. The trough axis pushes into Wyoming on Monday, pushing much drier air into our western counties. Thus, the door will likely close to significant precipitation chances west of the Laramie range. Temperatures will also return to near normal with the amplified ridge pushing further east. Ensemble forecasts favor precipitable water values returning to near to slightly below normal for Monday through the end of the forecast period. There still will be opportunities for isolated storms each day as we return to more zonal flow aloft towards the middle of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 530 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Diurnal gusty winds will start to ease this evening, leaving sustained winds around 10 kts overnight. VFR conditions are expected through the night and into the morning hours. Winds will pick back up tomorrow afternoon due to daytime heating. VCTS is also possible during the afternoon hours, however, did not have enough confidence to put in this TAF issuance. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Increasing temperatures over the next several days as high pressure builds over the central Rockies. Afternoon temperatures will continue to rise into Saturday with triple digit temperatures likely in the Panhandle Friday and Saturday. 90s will be common over southeast Wyoming lower elevations...leading to afternoon humidity falling critical for most areas. Fortunately...fuels are still reported not receptive to rapid fire growth. Begin to see some southwestern moisture moving into the area for the afternoon hours beginning Friday...spreading east into the Nebraska Panhandle Saturday and Sunday. This will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...MN AVIATION...SF FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
946 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the East Coast will shift out into the Atlantic tonight in response to a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight ahead of the front with potential for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon with the frontal passage. Cool and unsettled conditions are expected over the weekend as an upper low sits over New England. Temperatures moderate early next week with mostly dry conditions as the upper low pulls away from the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 940 PM...I`ve updated the forecast for this evening a bit based on current radar. BKN line of convection popped up across the east. It looks like elevated convection in response to a sharp mid level temp/moisture gradient. These should move out shortly. Otherwise convection to our west is dying, and only a few spotty showers, and maybe a little thunder will be possible overnight. I`ve also bumped up mins a bit in many spots, given strong S flow and lots of clouds. 740 PM...Based on latest radar, pushed back arrival time of SHRA/TSRA in the N and W this this evening by about 2 hours, which should have them moving in 8-9 PM. Latest HRRR continues to support the idea that most significant convective clusters skim our N and S zones, with just some SCT showers, and maybe a few rumbles of thunder in between overnight. Previously...High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard this afternoon will continue to shift east into the Atlantic as an upper trough digs across the Great Lakes. Ridging aloft over New England will break down through this evening in response to the approaching trough. This upper trough will eventually move overhead by Saturday morning while sending a cold front through the area before doing so. The latest information from the 12Z CAM suite suggest precipitation chances will be limited through tonight. CAMs generally agree thunderstorms will develop within a pre-frontal trough this evening across Upstate NY and southern Quebec with storms congealing into clusters/linear segments as they track to the longitude of the NY/VT border this evening. Once storms reach this longitude they are projected to weaken and split around the forecast area with one cluster tracking towards southern New England and the other tracking across Quebec that may clip far northern zones. Showers and embedded thunderstorms that do track across the area will tap into an environment with PWATs greater than 1.5 inches, some elevated instability, and warm cloud depths greater than 10Kft. These factors will lead to the potential for brief heavy downpours although coverage is expected to be limited and little in the way of impacts are expected. It will be a mild and increasingly humid night as dewpoints increase with lows generally in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Attention then turns towards the potential for strong to severe storms to develop late Friday morning through the afternoon. Any overnight shower or thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish by day break on Friday with the 12Z HREF showing filtered sunshine and strong heating during the morning hours along the coastal plain. This heating along with dewpoints climbing into the mid 60s will allow for an axis of SBCAPE up to 2000 J/kg to develop along the coastal plain and maximized near the Capital District of Maine. This instability will align with deep layer shear favorable for organized convection. The consensus amongst HREF members is that showers and storms will approach the Canadian border around 10 am with a broken line of storms reaching the foothills around noon and then the coast between 2 to 3 pm. The SPC has continued a marginal risk for severe storms Friday as uncertainty in how much the atmosphere will destabilize ahead of the front has held back an upgrade to slight risk. Have continued to mention gusty winds and small hail in the forecast for areas along and south of the foothills where the greatest instability is expected. The front is expected to push offshore by late afternoon with drier air pushing into the region on WNW winds. As the upper trough will approach from the NW Friday night it will allow for another round of showers and possibly embedded thunder Friday night primarily in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Overview: Closed low pressure will reside over the region through the weekend, resulting in cool, dreary weather for much of the area. The low will slowly move east as another low pressure system slides east of James Bay. Details: Much of the discussion will revolve around an upper level low set to drop into northern New England through the weekend. Most noticeable will be the continuous cloud cover beginning Saturday morning as well as a rather sharp decrease in temperature values and ranges...especially for the mountains and foothills. The mid level low will have advanced towards the western ME mountains by Sat morning, with cool air spilling over the peaks. Highs only in the 40s cannot be ruled out for much of this region, with warmer valleys perhaps touching the lower 50s. Abundant cloud cover will help to limit insolation. Any warming of the atmosphere that does take place will assist in developing some diurnal rain showers surrounding the low. Flurries will be possible at the higher summits, particularly those above 5000ft. Guidance has backed off on instability Saturday, so chances for deeper showers are limited. Regardless, winds on the SW portion of the low cutting through NH will pick up Sat afternoon. This will combine with the cool temps to create some raw wind chills below freezing during the day, potentially into the lower teens on peaks such as Mount Washington. As typical with any blocking pattern, there is little arriving that will move the low out of the region. Its residence seems likely through Sunday as well, albeit shifted east more. NW flow continue across much of the area with showers continuing. The vertically stacked low will lose lower level strength progressing into early week. This thus reduces the chance of precip as NW flow channels in drier air from Canada. The next chance for more area wide precip comes past mid-week, potentially around Thursday as a front approaches from the west. This appears to be quite weak and dissipating on multiple guidance packages however. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...Increasing low level moisture through tonight will cause conditions to deteriorate to to IFR/LIFR in low cigs and reduced visibility in BR. Conditions will improve Friday morning before a broken line of showers and thunderstorms crosses the area from late morning through afternoon with showers and storms expected to be offshore by 20Z. Long Term...VFR with some areas of MVFR are possible into the afternoon hours Saturday and Sunday. There will be the chance for -SHRA through Sunday and potentially Monday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Southerly winds ahead of a cold front will continue SCA into Friday afternoon. Cold front crosses the waters Friday afternoon bringing chances for thunderstorms and a wind shift out of the west Friday night. Long Term...Low pressure overhead will bring NW winds over the waters through the weekend. This will result in a downtrend in wave heights below SCA Saturday afternoon. Winds will hover around 20 kts into Sunday night and Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides start their downward trend tonight after peaking last night. Limited to no impacts were observed from last night and have held off on a coastal flood statement as tonight`s high tide will be lower. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ150>154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa/Schroeter SHORT TERM...Schroeter LONG TERM...Cornwell AVIATION... MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hanford CA
424 PM PDT Thu Jun 16 2022 .UPDATE... Updated AIR QUALITY ISSUES section. && .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move across the region with a much cooler air mass moving over Central California on Friday, with daytime highs lowering to around 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Gusty winds are expected across the region on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will remain much cooler than average Saturday before another warming trend resumes early next week. && .DISCUSSION... A nice clear day today with temperatures just a few degrees above normal for this time of year. Breezy conditions near Merced are developing in advance of an approaching cold front. Winds will gust tonight across the NRN SJV tonight as onshore flow increases. The cold front is expected to move across the CENCAL interior tomorrow with increasing clouds and continued breezy conditions. The HRRR and NAMNEST guidance is not advertising significant winds across the Kern county mountain and desert regions tomorrow. It will be marginal advisory criteria near Mojave. As the front passes and clouds moves through, we will see a significant cool down for tomorrow. We are forecasting a 15 to near 20 degree drop from todays high temperatures. One concern we have is that the rapid drop in temperatures may create some problems for hikers and campers who may not be prepared for the rapidly falling temperatures in the Sierra. Low temperatures Friday night and into Saturday morning will be below freezing in several locations down to near 6000 feet. Breezy conditions combined with colder temperatures could lead to hypothermia overnight on Friday. Please encourage everyone who might be going camping Friday night to be prepared for cold temperatures and breezy conditions in the Sierra. We are not expecting any precipitation with the front at this time. Unseasonably cold temperatures and breezy conditions will continue into Saturday. Some residual clouds are possible early Saturday in the Sierra. Temperatures will moderate Sunday and Monday to near normal values. Upper level high pressure will build in over the area by Tuesday and increase temps to near triple digits in the SJV and Kern Desert areas. High pressure will hold in strong over the region through next week with triple digits expected in the SJV and Kern county desert regions. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across Central California through at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information an/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ JDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1127 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 936 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Surface analysis this evening shows a weak frontal boundary still draped across southern Central Indiana. High pressure was found over W IA/E NB. Deep low pressure was found north of Ontario, but was providing broad cyclonic flow as far south as the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. Water vapor shows a broad area of high pressure aloft stretching across the southern plains and deep south. A few upper level weather disturbances within the flow around the broad high were triggering some minor thunderstorms over MO, W KS and NM. Dew points across Indiana have fallen to the lower 70s across northern and Central Indiana, while upper 70s were still present on the south side of the cold front. Skies were mostly clear across Indiana, but a few high clouds remained near the frontal boundary across southern Central Indiana. Overnight, the surface high pressure is expected to continue to build into the Ohio Valley. This will result in mostly clear skies and slightly cooler temperatures overnight for much of Central Indiana. However the showers and storms in place over MO associated with a weak upper disturbance are shown by the HRRR to arrive in southern Central Indiana toward daybreak, spreading weak showers and storms across the BMG, Bedford, Sullivan and Seymour areas. With the surface frontal boundary still in this vicinity along with access to the upper 70 dew points, we will include a small chance for showers or storms late tonight and early Friday for the far southern parts of the forecast area. && .Short Term...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 ...Low risk of a strong to severe storm late tonight into early Friday... A weak cold front, oriented from SW to NE, has stalled over the area leading to a swath of thin clouds overhead. Off to our northeast, a few showers have developed along the front where forcing is better. The stronger forcing could expand into eastern central Indiana through the afternoon and evening, potently bringing isolated showers or thunderstorms in our eastern counties. As the sun sets, precipitation chances will drop again as daytime heating drops off. In addition to the low PoPs with this front, slightly breezy winds will continue into this evening with the relatively tighter pressure gradients near the front. Tonight will have one more warm night for the week with lows overnight in the low to mid 70s. Through the rest of the day and towards tomorrow morning, the ridge that brought us the hot weather this past week will flatten and retrograde westward. As it does so, a small vorticity max will slide southwesterly down the ridge. This should be enough to trigger a round of showers and thunderstorms along the stalled front late overnight and into early morning. Models are indicating plenty of instability and shear. Given the along-boundary shear vector orientation and potentially strong cold pools, storms should quickly congeal into a loosely-organized cluster capable of producing strong winds. The greatest risk of strong to severe storms will be across our southern counties during the overnight hours. The ridge will continue to retrograde Friday, eventually centering itself over the Ozarks. This will allow for the stalled cold front to finally push south of the forecast area and usher in slightly cooler and drier temperatures as we return to NW flow aloft. Friday`s conditions will be more pleasant as dew points drop into the 50s and clouds will clear out through the day. Highs tomorrow will still be above normal, ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will continue to drop Friday night as overnight lows are expected to fall from the mid 60s to upper 50s. && .Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 On Saturday, in the wake of an amplifying and departing shortwave trough, cool and dry air mass will overspread much of the eastern part of the country. This will result in negative 2m temperature anomalies of up to 5 degrees. We noticed a cooler trend in GFS and its ensembles by a couple of degrees in the most recent model cycle, but the ECMWF and its ensemble mean are slightly warmer. So, with the conflicting signal we decided not to deviate from the blended model approach. It is possible that a cooler air mass may occur which would restrict high temperatures to the mid 70s area wide. Noticeably drier air will accompany this cold front as well. As the shortwave moves further way and its attendant surface high moves east of the area, return flow will begin by Sunday bringing temperatures closer to mid-June normals. However, since the continental polar intrusion was so broad and extensive, return of moisture will be delayed until later next week. We could see increased mid-high level clouds cover from upstream convection on Sunday into Monday on the east side of the ridge. As the ridge builds in Tuesday, temperatures will be nearly as hot as we`re currently experiencing. With the moisture return, heat index values will again approach dangerous levels. We have above average forecast confidence into the middle of next week since models all agree on broad and extensive ridging across the southern part of the country, and a shortwave trough moving eastward across the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes by mid week. There are some timing differences in the deterministic guidance, but it`s not substantial. In most scenarios depicted by the deterministic and ensemble guidance, a cold front will move into the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Mesoscale details on residual convection moving into the area from Wednesday night and potential left over boundaries cannot be resolved at this time range. Thus, there is some inherent uncertainty on the details of convective coverage and timing that will be resolved as the time nears. Early indications are that organized and/or widespread convection will be unlikely since stronger westerlies aloft remain north of our region, and overall shear will be weak. Even with weak flow, modest westerlies aloft often support steeper midlevel lapse rates above a warm/moist PBL, resulting in at least moderate if not strong conditional instability. So, any severe storm threat would probably be limited to brief single/multi-cells and associated downbursts upon collapse. As the cold front moves through, slightly drier air may return. At least slightly positive midlevel height anomalies signal a warmer pattern than normal toward the end of the week. But this is a time where chaos in the models increases as is evident by looking at the ensemble spaghetti 500-mb plots. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1126 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 IMPACTS: * VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period. DISCUSSION: Clear skies will be expected overnight and mostly clear skies will be expected on Friday. Strong ridging is expected to continue to develop over the plains resulting in NW flow aloft along with subsidence. Furthermore surface high pressure is expected to build across Indiana from the west on Friday. A small caveat upper level weather disturbance over MO continues to generate some thunderstorms. HRRR suggests these storms arriving in Southern Indiana between 11Z-15Z. This will be a diurnal minimum for this type of storms. Thus confidence is low on the progression and timing. For now...have just included a VCTS mention at BMG to account for this. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...Puma Short Term...KH Long Term...BRB/Melo Aviation...Puma
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1157 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1153 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022 Grids were freshened up based on recent observations and trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time. At this time, the rest of the overnight was left dry although a stray shower cannot be completely ruled out. UPDATE Issued at 840 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022 Cumulus have largely dissipated across East KY and those that remain are shallow. These should generally also decrease overnight. Recent convective allowing models have generally trended toward less of a chance for activity this evening, though some do have late night activity after the 6Z to 8Z period nearer to the TN and VA border. This activity if it were to occur would be in advance of convection now upstream of the area or an MCS potentially moving into the OH Valley around an upper level ridge. Numerous runs of the HRRR bring this activity into eastern KY late on Friday morning or early in the afternoon with an associated potential for gusty winds perhaps near or in excess of 50KT. There does remain differences from run to run with the details, but the Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday appears well warranted. With the heat advisory having now expired, messaging for the risk of severe thunderstorms on Friday will be expanded to a weather story and associated social media posts. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 501 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022 The latest observations show temperatures ranging in the mid to low 90s across most of the area while dew points in the 70s make it feel more like 100 to 105. Accordingly, the Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM this evening. Radar imagery shows convection, some of which is in the strong to severe firing over the over northeast Ohio and northeastward into the St. Lawrence valley. An agitated cumulus field is found further to southwest into southern Indiana and Illinois. The 20z analysis shows that this area of convection is associated with a band of enhanced 850 mb moisture and subtle pre-frontal surface trough. The analysis also shows the ~1020 mb surface high pressure, responsible for our hot, steamy weather, situated just off the Atlantic Seaboard. A stout ~594 dam closed high is centered just to our southwest over the Ozarks. Well to our north, a robust ~545 dam low and strong surface low pressure are situated near James Bay. A trailing cold front extends S-SW from the low across the Lower Great Lakes and into the lower Missouri Valley. Models remain in good agreement with the synoptic pattern through the short-term period. The upper low low will drop into northern New England as the upper high will retreat westward into the Central Plains. This will allow the aforementioned cold front to sag southward across the Ohio Valley on Friday. Ahead of the front, remnants of the subtle surface trough will drop into the Commonwealth during the first half of tonight, but any convection will be very sparse due to weak forcing. The best chance for deep convection this evening appears to be north of the Mtn. Parkway, over the higher terrain of southeast Kentucky, and also out near Lake Cumberland. If a storm develops, model soundings still show plenty of dry air in the mid-levels, which could support strong wind gusts. A more notable but conditional threat for severe weather exists on Friday. CAMS show storms firing in the Lower Missouri Valley/Central Plains along the cold front this evening. However, there is considerable model spread as to where this activity initiates and maintains. In general, the CAMS show this convection becoming a cold-pool dominant MCS which then accelerate eastward into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys late tonight and Friday morning before eventually weakening/dissipating by the time it encounters the western foothills of the Appalachians. Over the last 30 hours, the HRRR (which usually struggles to resolve cold-pool dominant MCSs) has very consistently maintained this MCS as it races eastward and suggests that damaging winds will impact much of eastern Kentucky. The other CAMS are quicker to weaken the MCS`s cold pool and in some cases dissipate the system entirely before it reaches our area. The shear for maintaining storm organization will be very marginal once it reaches eastern Kentucky. Given the lack of any other notable forcing, the system’s evolution will strongly depend upon how the upstream activity and especially its cold pool evolve tonight. With that said, model soundings show over 1,300 J/kg of DCAPE, over 3,000 J/kg of MUCAPE and steep sfc-3 km lapse rates -- a very favorable environment for strong to damaging straight-line winds if the MCS materializes. The actual cold front will drop southward late in the afternoon and evening, but will be weakly forced, likely attended by isolated to scattered convection at best. Much drier and cooler air moves in behind the boundary Friday night. Temperatures are expected to fall back into the lower to middle 70s tonight before surging back into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday. Refreshingly cool northerly flow will help temperatures settle back into the upper 50s and lower 60s on Friday night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 437 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022 We start the extended on a pleasant note with temperatures closer to average for this time of year. Unfortunately, this does not last long, and the abnormally hot temperatures make a quick return for the new week. Aloft, we begin the period with a large trough over New England helping to squeeze the ridge further west and putting our region under northwesterly flow. At the surface, Kentucky lies under northerly winds behind a cold front that will have pushed to our south, while a cool Canadian high nudges down over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. All in all, this will bring some relief from the recent heat. Highs Saturday and Sunday will range from the low to mid 80s. The drier northerly flow will also help lows to become almost chilly, at least relatively speaking. Lows Saturday night are in the low 50s for most, though some of the deeper valleys could dip into the upper 40s. Lows Sunday night are in the mid 50s. Heading into the workweek though, the upper ridge moves east over the area once again and the surface high shifts eastward over the Mid-Atlantic. Consequently, temperatures take an upward turn. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance point to well above normal, to possibly record breaking, temperatures, and current forecast highs Tuesday and Wednesday are in the mid to upper 90s. However, there is some potential wiggle room there. There is some uncertainty about how much rain will fall before we head into the extended, which lowers confidence. Guidance also exhibits some spread as models disagree around the strength of the ridging, with a few cooler solutions being depicted. Overall, would not be entirely surprised if adjustments need to be made with later updates, but did not feel convinced enough to deviate from the NBM at this time given the uncertainty. Will continue to monitor trends, but the extended is expected to be hot regardless. However, dewpoints will be lower than what we have been seeing with the recent heat, so that will thankfully help keep the heat index values a bit closer to actual temperatures. Later in the week, models suggest a possible front approaching the region, bringing a slight dip in temperatures and possible showers and storms. However, model agreement is poor at this point, and only slight chance PoPs are in the forecast for Wednesday night/Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022 VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through much of the period. There will be two main exceptions. The first, river valley fog with MVFR and IFR reductions during the 5Z to 12Z or 13Z timeframe that is not expected to affect the TAF sites. The primary aviation concern will be the potential for thunderstorms with gusty winds of at least 30 to 40KT for time during the 16Z to 20Z window. Any location impacted by a storm could experience brief MVFR or even IFR conditions in the strongest cells. Winds will be light and variable tonight, before becoming SW to W at near 10KT after 13Z, before becoming more northwesterly toward 18Z and after. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...JP
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1014 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 .UPDATE... EVENING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... Current forecast looks good with only some small changes. Latest HRRR model continues to develop convection across parts of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee, generally along and north of interstate 40, later tonight. Airmass will remain moderately unstable with MLCAPES of 2500-3000 with DCAPES of 1100-1300. Mid-level lapse rates near 7 degrees will remain steep. Can not rule out isolated strong to severe pulse severe storms tonight. Main concern will be damaging winds due to the high DCAPE, dry and steep mid-levels, and melting of hail below the high freezing levels. Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly clear (south) with muggy conditions remaining. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Main concern through the period of potential of convection. Ridging over the area will weaken as an upper wave approaches. This will allow for a greater chance of showers and storms at all TAF sites. Timing of these scattered storms is difficult but best chance is Friday afternoon. Otherwise, as frontal boundary moves toward the area Friday the pressure gradient will tighten producing breezy conditions in the afternoon. Southwest to west winds will increase to 10 to 15kts with gusts up to 20kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 97 74 90 63 / 10 20 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 93 71 85 60 / 10 40 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 74 94 70 85 60 / 10 40 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 92 65 81 53 / 30 40 20 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.UPDATE... Issued at 525 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Will lead by saying that this discussion paragraph focuses on a highly-conditional, low-end potential for thunderstorm development. It may be likely that nothing will happen, but still worth mentioning because the chance is non-zero. Between roughly 6-9 PM, there is a small chance for convective initiation near the NE/KS border immediately along and north of a retreating frontal boundary. The north side of this front is quite unstable, and despite it being the "cold" side, temperatures are in the low 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s with mixed layer CAPE on the order of 3-4000 J/kg. This zone is also characterized by significant cyclonic curvature in the low levels of the hodograph and sufficient deep layer shear to support supercell structure IF convective initiation should take place. Current visible satellite patterns in southern NE suggest a stable layer is in place but immediately on the KS side the clouds take on a more unstable appearance. Convergence in this zone is quite impressive and the LCL-LFC relative humidity is forecast to increase over the next 2-4 hours, perhaps increasing the probability of initiation. If storms develop and subsequently organize into cyclonic supercells, all hazards would be possible...but again this is a highly conditional outcome and the end result could very well be no storms at all. Looking west into north central KS, a convective cluster is attempting to develop. This cluster may also have a low end chance of organizing and forward propagating into the instability axis and favorable low-level shear profile near the front. This also is highly conditional upon it`s ability to be maintained, but could result in a damaging wind potential. Beyond this note, the remainder of the forecast and discussion are on track for late evening thunderstorm development. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Potential for severe storms and locally heavy rain is the short term problem from now through tonight, then attention turns to excessive heat. Went ahead and issued an excessive heat watch for all of the area from Noon Saturday to 10 pm Monday after collaborating with neighboring offices. Skies started out clear this morning but by early afternoon some mid level clouds had bubbled up and a few of these had turned into thunderstorms by about 145 pm around Lincoln. Think these will continue to move east into southwest IA and end. So the early evening may end up mostly dry in our area. Will still keep some POPs going late this afternoon and early this evening, but higher coverage is likely to wait until after 9 pm. At mid afternoon today, a nearly stationary front at the surface extended from northeast MO back across northern KS to a low in CO. South of the front, in eastern KS, temperatures were in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. The KOAX sounding from this morning only had a Precipitable Water (PW) value of 0.63 but looking down toward KDDC the PW was 1.21 and they had a K index of 40. Moisture will be transported into our area via a low level jet, which will also provide lift north of the front. Recent RAP model solutions show 0-6 km MUCAPE values increasing to over 3000 J/kg in a band over our area, and PW values from 1 to 2 inches. The highest PW values are forecast near the NE/IA/MO border. So, some severe storms appear possible along with locally heavy rain that could cause flooding - if storms stay over the same area or if the same area gets multiple rounds of storms. These could linger until around sunrise Friday, then the rest of the day looks dry. Temperatures will top out mainly in the upper 80s to mid 90s on Friday, with heat index values mostly 100 or less. The heat really cranks up for Saturday through Monday. Air temperatures should peak in the mid 90s to about 100 in eastern NE and in the 90s across western IA Saturday with heat index values 95 to 105. Then heat index values should peak mostly from 100 to 108 Sunday and Monday. An excessive heat warning may be issued at some point for those days. Although we can`t completely rule out isolated storms, the period from Friday afternoon through Monday morning looks mainly dry as mid level heights increase and the atmosphere becomes capped. A frontal boundary is expected to move into the area from the northwest Monday night and Tuesday, with slightly cooler temperatures, more clouds and some chance for storms. Afternoon highs should reach the 90s Tuesday and Thursday, with upper 80s and lower 90s Wednesday. Storm chances seem highest for Monday evening, then again from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Main focus in this TAF period is likely TS development at LNK and near or over OMA. OFK is likely to remain dry. Have highlighted most likely times for TS via FM group at LNK although it should be noted that TS could persist beyond this time frame. OMA is expected to be on the edge and could see a true TEMPO TS scenario or could very well need a persistent TS FM group but for now have highlighted with TEMPO. Outside of storms, expect VFR. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ UPDATE...Barjenbruch DISCUSSION...Miller AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
817 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 806 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Another hot, humid evening for Middle TN. At 8 PM CDT, temps had only dropped to the 80s to lower 90s, except 79 at "cool" Crossville. Nothing was on radar this evening, but that could change tomorrow morning. Storms already firing up over Missouri are expected to head ESE Friday morning with a few pushing down into our area. Sadly, coverage is expected to be just around 30 percent. The latest HRRR model shows isolated storms popping up directly over our area around 4 AM CDT, but we do not see much other support for this happening, so keeping the overnight forecast rain-free for now. Friday`s scattered storms will occur ahead of a cold front that will bring much welcomed relief for Saturday and Sunday, with temps in the 80s and much lower humidity. No forecast changes are needed at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Continued heat advisory for most locations through 7 PM CDT tonight. Still expecting a quite muggy night tonight with lows mainly mid 70s, lower 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. At least for the short term period, no more heat advisory products are expected at this time. A weak surface boundary will approach mid state region as Friday progresses. A weak upper level disturbance across south central KY might work into northern and eastern portions of mid state region as later tonight into Friday progresses also. This weather setup might spur some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms especially during morning hours on Friday. Some strong thunderstorms could be possible with ample moisture, instability, and a focusing lifting mechanism in place, and don`t forget that enhanced diurnal heating influences might factor in too. Highs will be a few degrees cooler tomorrow also, mainly low to mid 90s, upper 80s to around 90 Cumberland Plateau Region. Yes, some around 100 degree afternoon heat index values look to be experienced on Friday afternoon west of Cumberland Plateau Region, but nothing at or above 105 degrees. So a heat advisory will not be issued for Friday as of this time. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 The upcoming holiday weekend will feature temperatures at or slightly below seasonal normal values, much less humidity, and dry conditions. Actually lows Saturday night will span the 50s. One of the Founding Fathers of our nation, first President George Washington, is attributed to saying "I cannot tell a lie." As much as I would like to tell everyone that the possibility of unseasonably warm temperatures has ended as next work week progresses, I cannot tell a lie either. Look for high temperatures to rebound back into mid to upper 90s on Juneteenth Holiday and remain unseasonably warm through remainder of at least most of next work week. Upper level high pressure influences to our west, which in reality will keep northwesterly upper level flow across mid state region this holiday weekend, will eventually shift eastward and become established across our area. One reason that we have continue not to reach the century mark yet is all the green outside continuing to provide moisture in the air, what we call evaporative transpiration, but even that process, as we begin to dry out across mid state region as Saturday through next Thursday progresses will become slightly diminished each day. Both latest GFS/ECMWF model solutions showing one of the most impressive upper level ridges in terms of strength settling over our area Tuesday into Wednesday that the global model solutions have shown in a while. It is looking more and more like the century mark maybe toppled next week as little moisture expected under this strong upper level ridging cap. Lowered NBM high temperature values next Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons that have been trending too high as of late for highs during our heat wave event so far, but only by a couple of degrees at most. Muggy conditions will once again be experienced at night as lows in the low to mid 70s lows look to prevail. Highs potentially around Nashville Metro Area could go over century mark on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, and possibly even Thursday afternoon also. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 546 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 VFR conditions with light winds expected at all sites through tonight. After 14Z Friday, an approaching cold front will shift winds to WNW near 10KT and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will form. Storms will not be included in tafs at this time because of low coverage along with uncertainty about location and timing. Friday morning radar and near term model trends may support inclusion at some sites with tomorrow`s 12Z tafs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 77 95 70 86 / 10 30 20 0 Clarksville 75 91 68 85 / 10 30 10 0 Crossville 71 87 65 80 / 10 30 20 0 Columbia 74 94 70 87 / 10 20 20 0 Cookeville 74 89 67 81 / 10 30 20 0 Jamestown 70 87 63 78 / 10 40 20 0 Lawrenceburg 74 93 70 87 / 10 20 20 0 Murfreesboro 74 95 70 87 / 10 20 20 0 Waverly 74 92 70 85 / 10 30 20 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......13 SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1033 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front gradually moves across the the region tonight. A cold front will then move in on Friday and pass across during the late afternoon into the evening. High pressure builds to the west Saturday through Monday. The high weakens as a slow moving warm front approaches from the west Monday night into Tuesday night, possibly lifting through on Wednesday and into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Low confidence forecast tonight with potential convection. CAMs continue to indicate varying solutions although the last three runs of the HRRR have shown much less coverage than earlier this afternoon. Have updated Pops to cap off at chance PoPs as evidence is growing that coverage will be isolated to scattered. A mid level shortwave, height falls, and approaching warm front will be a mechanism for any convection. A broken line of convection to the west has not shown any signs of organized it is slowly approaches. There is one surface based cell that is moving along a sharp surface based CAPE gradient in central PA and another cluster of thunderstorms developing across north central PA. The northern cluster appears to be elevated. This activity could develop a bit more as it approaches over the next few hours. Still thinking any convection will occur about 03-05z west of NYC, 04-06z in NYC metro, and 06-08z east of there. Any convection is going to be elevated as there is a fairly strong inversion around 2-3 kft. This should prevent any severe weather tonight. Height falls are expected at 500mb through tonight. An embedded mid level shortwave ahead of a larger trough approaches tonight and passes east of Long Island late tonight into early Friday. At the surface, a warm front moves into the region from west to east tonight, eventually exiting east of the region by early Friday morning. The main concern with any convection will be from locally heavy downpours. 35-45 kts of flow in the lower to middle levels will help move activity along and inhibit any flash flooding. Low temperatures tonight were a blend of NBM and MOS consensus, ranging from the low to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... In the mid levels, the longwave trough continues to approach the region with continuing height falls. At the surface, the local region is in warm sector for Friday, with SW low level flow helping provide warm air advection. A much warmer day is in store. Did not take the highest of guidance considering the potential for pop up showers and thunderstorms and the overall decreasing 850mb temperatures forecast during the day. The NBM was used for high temperatures, ranging from the mid 80s to near 90 for much of the region. A cold front will be approaching the region from the north and west. With the increase in temperatures, surface based instability will increase, potentially up to near 1000 to 2000 J/kg Friday morning into Friday afternoon. The one main limiting factor for precipitation will be drier air and the drying trend with lowering dewpoints coincides with the increase in daytime instability. The result is that most large scale model solutions are mainly dry without indicating much of any shower or thunderstorm development. However, mesoscale models such as the HRRR and the NSSL do indicate widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development on Friday, around 16-20Z. Will keep POPs no more than 30 percent because of this uncertainty. The forecast 0-6 km bulk shear is near 45-50 kt. For the forecast region, there will be a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms with the main threat being damaging winds as well as the possibility of large hail. The drier air in the mid levels will add to the downburst potential with any thunderstorms that develop. For Friday night, the mid level trough continues to push farther south into the area. The cold front at the surface moves southeast of Long Island Friday night, with a cooler and drier airmass establishing itself in the area. Winds will be NW and help advect in this drier and cooler air. Lows were taken from MET guidance and NBM with more weight on the MET guidance and lowered further slightly in a few spots. Lows forecast range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry conditions expected for this weekend as a surface cold front pushes offshore on Saturday and a ridge builds to the west. This ridge will remain to the west of the region into Wednesday as another trough passes to the north and brings a warm front into the region Wednesday into Thursday bringing the next chance of precipitation to the area. As for temperatures, Saturday will be cool with highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s which is 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal normals. Temperatures warm up a tad on Sunday but remain below normal with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Temperatures for the week will bounce back to near normal with temperatures in the 80s. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A warm front approaches this evening and moves across the terminals overnight into Friday morning. A cold front follows Friday afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings will continue tonight. KGON will likely stay VFR through 05z before lowering to MVFR thereafter. Probability for thunderstorms has lowered and have removed them from the TAF. Showers remain possible tonight and an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, generally 4z-7z from NYC terminals on NW and 5z- 9z for Long Island and southern CT terminals. Any shower could bring brief heavy rainfall and a brief lowering in visibilities. For early Friday morning, flight categories will range from MVFR to locally IFR, especially near the immediate coast. Conditions should improve quickly after 12z to VFR except for KGON where MVFR may linger through the morning. VFR then prevails into Friday afternoon. SE-S winds 10-15 kt tonight with gusts around 20 kt possible near the coast. Winds may weaken somewhat as the warm front passes early Friday, but should pick back out of the SW through the day, becoming 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Winds will shift towards the WNW in the late afternoon as the cold front begins to move through. There is a chance for a shower/thunderstorm Friday afternoon, but not enough confidence to include in TAF at this time. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Isolated thunderstorm possible 04z-07z. Chance for IFR ceilings at KLGA, KEWR, and KTEB 08-12z Friday. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday night...WNW-NW winds G20kt diminishing overnight. .Saturday...VFR. NW winds G20-30kt. .Sunday...VFR. NW winds G15-20kt. .Monday...VFR. .Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ && .MARINE... SCA conditions expected tonight, all waters tonight, and the ocean waters on Friday. For Friday night, the ocean SCA lingers across Fire Island Inlet to Moriches until 8PM and across Moriches to Montauk, lingers until 11PM. Non-ocean waters and ocean west of Fire Island Inlet are expected to stay below SCA criteria Friday night. Behind a cold front, winds will gust out of the northwest and increase through Saturday with gusts reaching SCA levels across all the forecast waters by the afternoon. Ocean seas will also build to around 5 feet. Winds and seas will diminish Saturday night, falling below advisory levels. Sunday through Wednesday winds and seas will remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters. && .HYDROLOGY... At this time significant or widespread flooding is not expected tonight. Locally heavy rain is possible with minor flooding. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the remainder of the forecast period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides continue to run high after a full moon Tuesday. Minor coastal flooding benchmarks may be reached or exceeded by one or two tenths of a foot along the back bays of southern Queens and southern Nassau county with this evenings high tide cycle. A coastal flood statement has been issued for this possibility. A high risk of rip current is forecast on Friday for central and eastern ocean facing beaches, otherwise for the remainder of the ocean facing beaches there will be a moderate risk of rip currents. There is a high risk of rip currents on Saturday for all ocean facing beaches except in Brooklyn where the risk is moderate. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for NYZ080-081. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ353. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...20 AVIATION...DS MARINE...20/JM HYDROLOGY...20/JM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
336 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Key Messages: 1) Isolated thunderstorm development continues through early evening across the far southeast plains, with a strong storm or two remaining possible. 2) Increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the mountains and mountain valleys on Friday, with localized heavy rainfall the main threats. Latest radar imagery is showing isolated thunderstorms developing over the far southeast plains, mainly focused around the Kim area at this time. This development, in response to lifting mid level energy and a remnant boundary/surface trough in place, will likely continue through early evening. Do expect this development to remain more isolated, but should see this shift more northeast into Bent, Prowers, and Baca counties late this afternoon. While a general drying trend with lowering instability has been the trend, previously noted moist advection is helping to keep MLCAPE values in the 500-1000 j/kg range in this area. Wind shear remains weak/low, though this MLCAPE and steep lapse rates with decent focus will continue to support a stronger storm or two along and southeast of a Kim to Lamar line. Wind gusts to around 55 mph with hail to the size of pennies will be the main hazards. The remnant boundary/trough continues to be a concern for possible brief landspout tornadoes in this location as well, with the latest RAP analysis showing some increasing trends with the non-supercell tornado parameter and 0-3km MLCAPE/Surface vorticity. So, will continue to message this potential as well, before all development ends by early this evening. After a dry period tonight, expect deep southerly flow to return higher moisture to much of the region but more so across the mountains and mountain valleys. This will support increases in coverage of showers and thunderstorms across these areas, and especially over the Continental Divide. In this setup, localized heavy rainfall will be the main concern. Elsewhere, conditions should be on the drier side. Some potential for some storms to try and move closer to the I-25 corridor, but at this time, this chance looks to be low. Hot conditions will once again develop over the plains Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 90s likely. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Key Messages: 1) Rain shower and thunderstorm chances will remain elevated for southern Colorado, especially for the western and central mountains. Saturday - Monday... The long term period will continue an active and wet pattern across southern Colorado. The GEFS and EPS ensemble models remain in solid agreement with each other, leading to higher confidence in the forecast and related impacts. Synoptically, the models keep a large ridge of high pressure over the central US, and a trough across the western US and push it to the east/northeast over this time period. With these systems in place, winds at the surface and aloft will maintain a south/southwesterly component. Given this, a deep moisture plume is expected to be streaming across Colorado, especially over western Colorado given the placement of the trough and ridge. Also with the southerly component winds, orographic lift over the mountains will be taking place, especially over the San Juan Mountains. With the rich moisture streaming northward, and persistent orographic lift in place, daily rain showers and thunderstorms are expected over the mountains, particularly the San Juans, where lifting will be strongest. At lower elevations, such as the San Luis Valley (SLV), precipitation chances are also expected to increase throughout this period. Higher moisture content will be advecting into the SLV as well, and this will aid in maintaining rain showers and thunderstorms as they push off of the mountains during the day. As the for the I25 corridor and eastward across the plains, precipitation chances will remain low Saturday and Sunday, as the deepest moisture will stay further west and southerly winds do not support orographic induced precipitation for most of that area. However, the aforementioned trough is expected to push to the NE Monday, along with the moisture plume, and this would be expected to allow for rain showers and thunderstorms to push eastward off of the mountains and across the eastern plains. As for temperatures, the same signals as previous forecast are still present, with a cooler west and warmer east. Areas along and west of the Sangre de Cristo mountains will remain cooler because of the increase in cloud cover and precipitation, which will help to keep temperatures near to below average for most. Along and east of the I25 corridor, the ridge will remain the dominant synoptic feature, and cloud cover will not be as thick, so temperatures are expected to be near to above average for most across this area. Tuesday - Thursday... For the rest of the long term period, models remain in agreement about pushing the trough to the NE and keeping a large ridge of high pressure across the central US. This ridge will become the dominant synoptic feature over the region. Given the ridge is expected to stay over the central US, moisture will continue to wrap around the western side of this feature. With the moisture still streaming over the region, and westerlies around the high still inducing orographic lift, daily rain showers and thunderstorms are likely. Precipitation chances will be increased for all of southern Colorado, but the highest chances will still remain in the mountains. Temperatures will also continue the same trend as before. The western part of the forecast area will be near to slightly below average, while the eastern part of the forecast area will be near to slightly above average. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 VFR conditions with dry weather will continue across the TAF sites for much of this period. Isolated thunderstorm development will continue through early this evening, but still expect any development to stay away from the terminals. Thunderstorm development returns Friday afternoon, mainly for ALS. Confidence is increasing that ALS will be impacted, with this potential increasing through mid to late afternoon. Some potential that COS could briefly be impacted by a storm, though confidence is low at this time. Winds will generally be out of a south southeast direction, with gusts increasing during Friday afternoon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
940 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface trough will be over central NC through tonight. A cold front will move through the area Friday and early Saturday. Cool high pressure will build in Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 PM Thursday... A cluster of showers and thunderstorms moved across the region from northwest to southeast, bringing much needed rain to nearly all locations. The bulk of the precipitation has moved south into South Carolina, although a tongue of precipitation is persisting north from Laurinburg up to Pinehurst and is slowly moving south, still producing some lightning. This rain should move south of the area in the next hour or so. However, a cluster of thunderstorms developed around Washington DC this afternoon and moved south, expanding slightly in coverage back to the mountains and currently extends along the I-64 corridor. While the HRRR and RAP initialize with these storms, they immediately disappear one or two hours into the forecast, so there is little numerical guidance to follow. This may be because the HRRR/RAP model soundings for Richmond show a very strong inversion, while a recent ACARS sounding does not show nearly as sharp of an inversion, and storm dynamics may be overcoming the lack of surface instability. These storms could make their way into northernmost counties by 11pm-12am, and have added a slight chance of thunderstorms to the forecast. The Storm Prediction Center has kept a slight risk of severe thunderstorms through most of Virginia, and continued the marginal risk across our forecast area. Eventually these storms should die out, but cannot rule out that these storms may make their way more than one county deep into North Carolina. Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Thursday... ...A Slight Risk of Severe Storms with Damaging Wind Gusts and Large Hail, along with Dangerous Heat Indices... The upper ridge will push west on Friday helping to lower heights aloft, however southwesterly surface flow will continue a moist, warm airmass over the region for another day. Mostly clear skies early in the day will allow for excellent insolation across the region, then cloud cover increases in the afternoon as storms develop. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s by the early afternoon, and with dewpoints in the uppers 60s to low 70s, heat index values will vary from 100-107 degrees, with highest values across the southern Coastal Plain and Sandhills. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for areas with the highest temperatures. The warm and moist airmass will be in place as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Storms will develop ahead of the front, and with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg, and weak shear, storms may be more pulse-like rather than more organized. SPC now has the whole area under a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe storms. Damaging wind gusts will again be the main threat, however large hail is possible in the strongest storms. Storms will exit the area to the southeast by late evening, with mostly dry conditions expected across the region overnight. The drier air and lower temperatures will be delayed behind the front, not arriving until later Saturday. Lows Friday night will be mild, ranging from the upper 60s N to mid 70s S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Thursday... The weekend looks beautiful with dry and cooler air moving in as high pressure builds in from the NW. Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s in the north, to low 60s in the south. As the high pressure slowly moves offshore Monday and Tuesday, temperatures early next week will quickly climb back into the upper 90s. By mid week dry air mass continues to dominate the area but the strong mid-level ridge will be over NC and hazardous temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s are expected. Dew points will be generally in the 60s. For now heat indices for Wednesday and Thursday will be below heat advisory criteria. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 940 PM Thursday... Although precipitation has cleared all terminals, a high overcast remains across the region. A broken line of east-west oriented showers and thunderstorms extends from Richmond back towards Blacksburg, and these storms remain strong. Although no additional precipitation is included in the TAFs, cannot rule out the possibility of one of these storms reaching one of the northern TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast, with winds veering from the southwest to the west overnight. Model predictability with thunderstorms has been very poor this week, and with only a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for Friday afternoon, no mention of precipitation has been made in the TAFs. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ084>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJT NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...JJT LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Green
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
911 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 907 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Nice little convective push associated with a decent tropical wave across cenLA modeled by HRRR to live another couple of hours before dissiapating while moving to the WNW around 20 mph. We could see some gust toward 40 mph going against the grain so to speak. So we have added slight chance to even some likely wording to the rest of the evening anyway. No other changes needed at this time. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 The persistent upper level ridge will be anchored just north of the region by the start of the long-term period invof of Kansas City. As it often the case with this positioning south of the ridge axis, we should see weak disturbances riding along the underside of the ridge and triggering some isolated to widely scattered convection Saturday afternoon. Therefore, have carried slight chance PoPs areawide on Saturday afternoon to account for this possibility even if being slightly optimistic given our very hot and dry pattern as of late. Regardless of the possible convection and additional cloud cover, don`t expect much reprieve from the heat and humidity on Saturday with high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 90s. By Sunday into early next, it appears that we may get some relief from the humidity as a weak cool front attempts to back door its way into the region. Although the front isn`t expected to shift very far into our area, model progs suggest that drier air will manage to infiltrate deeper into the region and should at least knock the edge off the intense humidity we have seen for much of this month. Other than that, don`t expect much of any relief as far as temperatures are concerned with the upper ridge building back southward toward the region with afternoon highs pushing into the upper 90s to lower 100s areawide throughout next week with rain chances effectively shut off once again. /19/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 For the ArkLaTex terminals light and variable winds overnight and limited if any MVFR at daybreak. The upper ridge is to our NE and underneath a weak disturbance associated with an easterly wave has a load of convection from LCH to AEX to JAN this early evening. This inverted trough tropical feature will edge Wward into E TX w/ east winds 5-10KT. We may have some better aftn coverage of shwrs and T`storms. Further rain chances arrive during Sat. as a weak fropa shifts our winds around w/ drier if not cooler air./24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 98 77 98 / 20 20 10 20 MLU 74 96 76 97 / 30 20 10 20 DEQ 72 96 73 95 / 0 10 0 20 TXK 75 97 76 96 / 0 20 10 20 ELD 72 95 73 95 / 10 20 10 20 TYR 75 98 76 98 / 0 20 10 20 GGG 74 98 75 97 / 10 30 10 20 LFK 74 98 74 99 / 10 30 10 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...24