Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/17/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
750 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Some minor adjustments to the grids this evening. Isolated
thunderstorms have developed over southwestern Weld County, with
small hail and wind gusts to 40 mph possible. These storms will
continue to track northeast this evening. The focus should remain
north of the Denver area, but will keep isolated pops in the grids
this evening. This is handled well in the grids so no changes
there. I added areas of smoke to the grids as well for tonight
and Friday, especially for areas south of the I-70 corridor.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Broad southwesterly flow aloft, on the western periphery of an
expanding upper level ridge, will remain in place across the area
through Friday, while an upper trough slowly pushes onto the west
coast. Closer to the surface, we`re seeing gradual moisture
advection into the plains this afternoon with surface dews in the
upper 40s to upper 50s east of the urban corridor. A few shallow
clouds have developed over the mountains and Palmer Divide in the
last hour, and we should see a gradual increase in cloud cover
this evening.
There`s still a bit of uncertainty surrounding this evening`s
weather. The HRRR is slowly joining the high-resolution model
consensus with some high-based convection developing over the
Foothills around 5 or 6pm this afternoon, which then drifts across
the metro and into Weld County. Initially this airmass will be
deeply mixed and fairly dry, meaning gusty winds will be possible
in the metro if a storm develops. The better/more moist airmass
from Greeley east towards Akron looks to remain weakly capped this
evening, but a conditional hail/wind threat exists in this area
with any CI that can occur there.
With continued south-southwesterly flow aloft, a better plume of
monsoonal moisture will slowly spread into the forecast area,
especially across the higher terrain. The brunt of the moisture
should remain to the west, closer to the four corners region,
where IVT and specific humidity will be above the 95th percentile.
Still, the increase in moisture should be enough for widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the high country by the
afternoon hours. There will be a limited threat of burn area flash
flooding... see the Hydro section below for additional
information.
The last challenge of the day will be temperatures and heat
related impacts across the plains. Mid-level temperatures should
be on the order of 3-5C warmer than today... reaching 19C in the
mid-afternoon. The result should be temperatures 4-9F warmer than
today`s highs. Mid-level SSEerly flow will increase tomorrow as
well with a few gusts of 25-30 mph possible in the afternoon
hours. With afternoon highs reaching the upper 90s, we may see
some heat impacts across the metro and in portions of the plains.
This is especially true across portions of the Denver metro and
along the I-76 corridor where the HRRR and ECM both have
temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s by 11am. The real
wildcard in the forecast is the presence of smoke. Recent HRRR
smoke forecasts keep smoke in the area through much of the day
which will also lead to additional health concerns... though this
also may limit surface heating a little.
With all that said, we`ve opted for a Heat Advisory across our
forecast area with health related concerns from the heat and
smoke, especially on a day when many people are participating in
outdoor activities near peak heating early in the summer season.
This is also well supported by the WR Experimental Heat Risk that
shows widespread high risk (level 3 of 4) across the metro and
plains.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
High amplitude pattern developing across Colorado through
the weekend with high pressure ridge aloft building across the
central plains states while a strong low pressure area over
Washington, Oregon and Northern California. This regime will result
in Colorado sandwiched between the two with a south to southwest
flow aloft. This flow will bring increasing subtropical moisture
into Colorado, especially in the mountains from Friday evening
through the weekend. Given the mostly southerly flow at mountain top
there won`t be much transition of storms out over the plains on
Friday evening but possibly spilling out onto the plains more so on
Saturday afternoon and evening. The overall severe threat will be on
the lower side with CAPE values generally 500-1000j/kg and
unidirectional shear profile. Main main impact will be heavy rain
and gusty winds threat, especially over the fire burn scars.
Precipitable water values will range from .8 to around an inch of
water for both Saturday and Sunday. This will lead to a bit higher
chances for flash flood concerns, mainly over the burn scars. On
Sunday, the flash flood threat may be even less with faster storm
motions of 20-30kt as the upper trof moves into the Great Basin.
On Monday, the main trof will rapidly move into the northern high
plains with somewhat drier air moving into the mountains with a less
threat of flash flooding. For Tuesday through Thursday, expect drier
conditions in a post trof regime and a return to drier westerly flow
aloft. Temperatures will also begin to warm up by mid week with
readings back around 90 degrees on the plains. The coolest day will
be on Tuesday behind the trof with readings mainly in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 637 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
VFR through the TAF period. There is a very slight chance of
shower/storm or two developing near DEN prior to 04z this evening.
Confidence in this occurring is low, but if anything develops
there could be a brief period of variable/gusty winds. Winds
should be fairly light overnight tonight before strengthening out
of the southeast late Friday morning. Gusty southeast/southerly
winds expected Friday afternoon/evening with gusts to 30 kts
possible. Isolated shower/storm possible again late Friday
afternoon primarily west of I-25, so only added vcsh to BJC.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected Friday with
humidities near 15%. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible
across the plains.
There will still be elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
across the northeast plains of Colorado this weekend with low
humidities and breezy conditions. There will be a gradual increase
in moisture this weekend which will help to alleviate fire
weather concerns this weekend along with continued green-up. By
Tuesday and Wednesday of next week look for drier and warmer
conditions again by Wednesday with only isolated date day showers
over higher terrain.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
A limited threat of burn area flash flooding is expected Friday as
a plume of better moisture slowly pushes into the state.
Precipitable water will be above normal across the mountains...
near 0.5-0.75"... along with weak instability. There should be
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the higher
terrain by the afternoon. Storm motions look just fast enough
(near 15kt) but can`t rule out some issues over the burn areas
given the convective coverage expected.
Expect increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the
mountains and adjacent plains from Friday through the weekend.
This will lead to a low threat of flash flooding over the burn
scars, especially for Saturday. The flow on Sunday will be a
little faster so storms will be moving at a bigger clip. Drier
weather will gradually return later Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for COZ038>040-
042>045-048>051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Hiris
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Cooper
FIRE WEATHER...Hiris/Entrekin
HYDROLOGY...Hiris/Entrekin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1011 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two, will move
across the region tonight as more humid air arrives. Another
round of scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday
afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. A few storms may
be strong to severe, with the greatest risk across eastern
Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Much cooler this weekend with
below normal temperatures, along with a few showers at times
Saturday night into Sunday. Drier conditions with near normal
temperatures should return for early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1010 PM update...
Quiet evening so far across SNE with widely scattered
convection to the north and west within the low level theta-e
ridge axis. This higher theta-e air will move east across the
region overnight. This combined with a modest low level jet and
increasing elevated instability moving in from the west will
result in scattered showers and perhaps a few t-storms
developing overnight. Latest HRRR and 3km NAM indicate highest
risk across SE New Eng coast in the vicinity of the low level
jet axis. Otherwise stratus will become more widespread
overnight with patchy fog developing as higher dewpoint air
advects northward. Not much change in temps overnight given
southerly breezes and increasing dewpoints, with lows mainly
low/mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights...
* Very warm Fri with highs in the middle to upper 80s away from
the south coast, Cape and Islands
* A few strong to severe t-storms possible in the afternoon, but
the threat is conditional and not expecting threat to be
widespread
Friday...
Any left over activity should be exiting the New England coast
by early Friday morning. Subsidence behind this shortwave should
allow at least partial sunshine to quickly develop. This coupled
with southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front will
allow for a very warm day. High temps should top out in the
middle to upper 80s away from the south coast. In fact, not out
of the question that a few spots flirt with 90. Gusty southwest
flow will keep temps in the middle 70s to the lower 80s on the
very immediate south coast, Cape and Islands with a modified
marine airmass.
The big concern will be the threat for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms Friday afternoon associated with a pre-frontal
trough and cold front. We will be dealing with decent
instability as surface based Capes climbing to between 1500 and
2500 J/KG. In addition...effective bulk shear on the order of
40 to 50 knots is favorable for severe weather. However, a big
limiting factor will be an abundance of mid level dry air. This
will attempt to disrupt the updrafts and cut their cores off
from growing too high.
Given at least modest instability Friday afternoon along with
very impressive effective bulk shear there is certainly the
potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. However,
this threat is conditional in the dry mid level air being able
to be overcome. We also think this threat will be more
isolated/localized than widespread. The high resolution CAMs
differ a bit on their simulations, but they tend to indicate a
scattered line of activity instead of a solid line as a result
of the dry air. The ensemble updraft helicity swaths tend to be
higher towards eastern sections. This is also true when looking
at the CSU machine learning probabilities. This is where
moisture appears to be a bit deeper.
So in a nutshell, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible Friday afternoon with the greatest risk across eastern
MA/RI. This is a conditional threat and will depend upon whether
the dry air can be overcome. Main risk will be localized strong
to damaging wind gusts given steep low level lapse rates with
hail a secondary threat. The main time frame looks to be roughly
from noon to 6 pm.
Friday night...
Dry and cooler weather will work into the region behind the cold
front Friday night. Low temps should bottom out the middle 50s
to the lower 60s by daybreak.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights...
* Below normal temperatures this weekend, with most locations
remaining dry.
* Tranquil weather with moderating temps to start the new work
week.
Details...
A low pressure lingering near Nova Scotia, and a high pressure
near James Bay Canada, will maintain a flow of cooler air into
southern New England for most of this weekend. Expecting
temperatures to be nearly 10 degrees below normal in spots. The
core of the upper level low pressure passes by our region
Saturday night into Sunday, which will be the period of our
greatest risk for some instability showers. Despite the cold air
aloft, am not overly concerned about thunderstorms at this
moment.
Drier and warmer conditions expected to return early next week.
It does appear that a blocking pattern in the mid level flow
sets up over the North Atlantic, preventing this upper level low
from moving much farther east than the Maritimes. There is
considerable uncertainty in the details regarding this feature,
leading to a low confidence forecast in the details for southern
New England after Tuesday. The GFS, in particular, is the most
aggressive in keeping this mid level low closer to the East
Coast. This will have implications for how quickly a series of
fronts can approach or cross our region Tuesday into Thursday.
Kept the forecast mostly dry at this time, mainly due to the
lack of focused humidity.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z TAF Update...
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
MVFR cigs already developing across western MA & CT this
afternoon will gradually overspread eastern MA/RI this evening
and into the overnight hours. Localized IFR ceilings may develop
across the interior too. Scattered showers and a few embedded
t-storms are possible late this evening into the overnight
hours. S wind gusts 15 to 25 knots with the strongest of those
winds likely near the coast.
Friday...Moderate confidence.
MVFR to localized IFR conditions early Friday morning will
improve to VFR in most locations by lunchtime if not earlier.
The exception will be Nantucket and perhaps portions of the
Cape, where IFR-LIFR conditions in low clouds and fog will be an
issue with moist southwest flow off the ocean. The other concern
will be scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Friday
afternoon with an associated cold front. A few storms may be
strong with the greatest risk across eastern MA/RI, but those
are not expected to be widespread more of an isolated threat.
SW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots will shift to the W during the
afternoon.
Friday night...High Confidence.
Any remaining low clouds and fog patches across Nantucket and
perhaps parts of the Cape will burn off early in the evening.
Otherwise, VFR conditions with WNW winds of 5-15 knots.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF. Showers overnight,
as ceilings become MVFR/IFR at times before 12Z. Conditions
gradually improved between 12 and 18Z before shower and
thunderstorm chances increase around 19Z.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF.Showers overnight,
as ceilings become MVFR/IFR at times before 12Z. Conditions
gradually improved between 12 and 16Z before shower and
thunderstorm chances increase around 18Z.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night through Juneteenth: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance
SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...High Confidence. A modest southerly LLJ will continue
to generate southerly wind gusts up to 25 knots tonight.
Therefore, Small Craft Advisory headlines continue for all
waters.
Friday...High Confidence. Southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots
expected ahead of an approaching cold front along with 3-6 foot
seas across the open waters. SCA headlines will continue for
most waters. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across the waters during the afternoon/early evening.
Friday night...High Confidence. Winds shift to the WNW behind
the cold front with gusts generally below 25 knots. However,
lingering marginal SCA seas are expected across the southern-
most outer-waters for the first half of the night.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday Night through Juneteenth: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ230-236.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ231-233-234.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ232-235-237-
250.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ251.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Frank
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Frank
MARINE...Belk/Frank
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
531 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight - Friday Night)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Warm & dry conditions prevail across southeast Wyo and the western
Neb Panhandle w/ upper-level ridging continuing to support strong/
deep subsidence across the area. As the ridge axis shifts eastward
later this evening, the models suggest several pieces of mid-level
short wave energy traversing the flow along the edge of the ridge.
H7 theta-e advection becomes quite strong in the 04-08z time frame
with the GFS suggesting surface dew points climbing into the 55 to
60 degree F range & MUCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg by 06z. Some high
resolution guidance including the HRRR suggests some potential for
convection to move northward into far southeast Wyo and the south-
western Neb Panhandle from Colorado late tonight. These storms may
be accompanied by a threat for small hail and gusty winds. General
ridging remains in place for Friday with H7 temperatures remaining
+18 to +20 deg C. Temperatures will quickly soar into the lower to
middle 90s (near 100 F in the Platte River Valley) by late morning
or early afternoon, warmest along/east of I-25. Scattered/numerous
thunderstorms are expected to develop in response to lee troughing
along the Laramie Range by early afternoon. Forecast soundings are
showing deep inverted-v profiles w/ the LCL above the 0C level and
very weak flow in the sub-cloud layer. The latest DY2 MRGL Risk is
looking good for the possibility of 55-65 MPH wind gusts with some
of this activity.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday - Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
The challenges of the long term forecast concern the heat wave
continuing through the weekend, and the monsoon-like surge of
moisture that will return precipitation to the forecast.
The major player for the weekend weather will be the impressive
upper level low over the West Coast and highly amplified downstream
ridge located over the central plains. At the beginning of the long
term period on Saturday morning, the anomalous upper level low will
be located roughly over southwest Oregon. The digging trough over
the west will help to significantly amplify the downstream ridge,
the axis of which is expected to be located near the border of the
Dakotas and Minnesota by Saturday morning. 500-mb height anomalies
is expected to be over 3 standard deviations below the
climatological mean along the west coast, and over 2 standard
deviations above the normal over the northern Great Plains. The
result will be deep southerly flow in between the trough and ridge
across the four corners states and into Wyoming. Southerly flow will
tap into ample moisture sources including the eastern tropical
Pacific, juiced by the expected traverse of Hurricane Blas south of
the mouth of the Gulf of California, as well as the Gulf of Mexico.
this will result in a monsoon-like surge of moisture, penetrating
substantially further north than is typical for mid June. In fact,
NAEFS mean precipitable water shows values over southern Wyoming
reaching the 99th percentile of climatology late Saturday into
Sunday. The main local impacts of this large-scale setup will be
continuing heat and increasing rainfall potential.
On Saturday, temperatures will climb well above normal again
underneath the highly amplified ridge. However, with the core of the
ridge shifting slightly east, high temperatures are expected to be
generally a couple degrees cooler than Friday. 700-mb temperatures
will moderate slightly to around +15C while enhanced cloud cover
especially west of the Laramie range helps keep temperatures down
slightly. Predominantly southerly flow may also prevent significant
downslope warming enhancement. Thus while a very warm day is
expected, the current forecast keeps highs several degrees away from
daily records at most locations. The main plume of moisture pushes
into our area on Saturday with precipitable water values generally
between 0.8 and 1.0 inches per the GEFS forecast. The best lift and
column saturation will be over western portions of the CWA, while
low level moisture may be lacking somewhat further east. Instability
is limited, but the CAPE profiles are tall and skinny, which points
to more of a heavy rain threat as well as potentially some gusty
outflow winds if convection is able to move out over the drier
environment. General storm motion will be to the NNE with cloud
layer wind speeds of 20-25 kts. The GEFS sets up the moisture plume
slightly further west than the European ensembles, which leads to a
more favorable trajectory across the lower elevations of the
Colorado Plateau rather than losing more moisture to the higher
peaks across southern and central Colorado. The ECMWF solution has
slightly lower PWAT and much less QPF over our area. If the GFS
solution ends up becoming favored, there could be a flash flood
threat on the Mullen burn scar. WPC has highlighted Carbon and
Albany counties with a Marginal risk of exceeding flash flood
guidance for Saturday.
On Sunday, the trough pushes further inland, tilting the moisture
plume more to the northeast. The heat will also ease as the trough
nears from the west. Much drier air is expected to start to push in
across Utah and southwest Wyoming, but most of our area should
remain fairly moist through Sunday. PWATs creep up slightly over the
Nebraska panhandle with slightly better low level moisture, although
it still does not look particularly impressive. Nonetheless, it does
look like Sunday will be the best opportunity for precipitation
across the high plains. Instability is forecast to be very modest
which should preclude a hail threat, but we still could see some
localized heavy rain or gusty winds.
The trough axis pushes into Wyoming on Monday, pushing much drier
air into our western counties. Thus, the door will likely close to
significant precipitation chances west of the Laramie range.
Temperatures will also return to near normal with the amplified
ridge pushing further east. Ensemble forecasts favor precipitable
water values returning to near to slightly below normal for Monday
through the end of the forecast period. There still will be
opportunities for isolated storms each day as we return to more
zonal flow aloft towards the middle of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Diurnal gusty winds will start to ease this evening, leaving
sustained winds around 10 kts overnight. VFR conditions are expected
through the night and into the morning hours. Winds will pick back
up tomorrow afternoon due to daytime heating. VCTS is also possible
during the afternoon hours, however, did not have enough confidence
to put in this TAF issuance.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Increasing temperatures over the next several days as high
pressure builds over the central Rockies. Afternoon temperatures
will continue to rise into Saturday with triple digit temperatures
likely in the Panhandle Friday and Saturday. 90s will be common
over southeast Wyoming lower elevations...leading to afternoon
humidity falling critical for most areas. Fortunately...fuels are
still reported not receptive to rapid fire growth. Begin to see
some southwestern moisture moving into the area for the afternoon
hours beginning Friday...spreading east into the Nebraska
Panhandle Saturday and Sunday. This will lead to increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...SF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
946 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the East Coast will shift out into the
Atlantic tonight in response to a cold front approaching from
the Great Lakes. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible tonight ahead of the front with potential for strong to
severe storms Friday afternoon with the frontal passage. Cool
and unsettled conditions are expected over the weekend as an
upper low sits over New England. Temperatures moderate early
next week with mostly dry conditions as the upper low pulls away
from the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
940 PM...I`ve updated the forecast for this evening a bit based
on current radar. BKN line of convection popped up across the
east. It looks like elevated convection in response to a sharp
mid level temp/moisture gradient. These should move out shortly.
Otherwise convection to our west is dying, and only a few spotty
showers, and maybe a little thunder will be possible overnight.
I`ve also bumped up mins a bit in many spots, given strong S
flow and lots of clouds.
740 PM...Based on latest radar, pushed back arrival time of
SHRA/TSRA in the N and W this this evening by about 2 hours,
which should have them moving in 8-9 PM. Latest HRRR continues
to support the idea that most significant convective clusters
skim our N and S zones, with just some SCT showers, and maybe a
few rumbles of thunder in between overnight.
Previously...High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard this
afternoon will continue to shift east into the Atlantic as an
upper trough digs across the Great Lakes. Ridging aloft over New
England will break down through this evening in response to the
approaching trough. This upper trough will eventually move
overhead by Saturday morning while sending a cold front through
the area before doing so.
The latest information from the 12Z CAM suite suggest precipitation
chances will be limited through tonight. CAMs generally agree
thunderstorms will develop within a pre-frontal trough this evening
across Upstate NY and southern Quebec with storms congealing into
clusters/linear segments as they track to the longitude of the NY/VT
border this evening. Once storms reach this longitude they are
projected to weaken and split around the forecast area with one
cluster tracking towards southern New England and the other tracking
across Quebec that may clip far northern zones. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms that do track across the area will tap into an
environment with PWATs greater than 1.5 inches, some elevated
instability, and warm cloud depths greater than 10Kft. These factors
will lead to the potential for brief heavy downpours although
coverage is expected to be limited and little in the way of impacts
are expected. It will be a mild and increasingly humid night as
dewpoints increase with lows generally in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Attention then turns towards the potential for strong to severe
storms to develop late Friday morning through the afternoon. Any
overnight shower or thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish by
day break on Friday with the 12Z HREF showing filtered sunshine and
strong heating during the morning hours along the coastal plain.
This heating along with dewpoints climbing into the mid 60s will
allow for an axis of SBCAPE up to 2000 J/kg to develop along the
coastal plain and maximized near the Capital District of Maine. This
instability will align with deep layer shear favorable for organized
convection. The consensus amongst HREF members is that showers and
storms will approach the Canadian border around 10 am with a broken
line of storms reaching the foothills around noon and then the coast
between 2 to 3 pm.
The SPC has continued a marginal risk for severe storms Friday
as uncertainty in how much the atmosphere will destabilize ahead
of the front has held back an upgrade to slight risk. Have
continued to mention gusty winds and small hail in the forecast
for areas along and south of the foothills where the greatest
instability is expected.
The front is expected to push offshore by late afternoon with
drier air pushing into the region on WNW winds. As the upper
trough will approach from the NW Friday night it will allow for
another round of showers and possibly embedded thunder Friday
night primarily in the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overview: Closed low pressure will reside over the region
through the weekend, resulting in cool, dreary weather for much
of the area. The low will slowly move east as another low
pressure system slides east of James Bay.
Details: Much of the discussion will revolve around an upper
level low set to drop into northern New England through the
weekend.
Most noticeable will be the continuous cloud cover beginning
Saturday morning as well as a rather sharp decrease in
temperature values and ranges...especially for the mountains and
foothills. The mid level low will have advanced towards the
western ME mountains by Sat morning, with cool air spilling over
the peaks. Highs only in the 40s cannot be ruled out for much of
this region, with warmer valleys perhaps touching the lower 50s.
Abundant cloud cover will help to limit insolation. Any warming
of the atmosphere that does take place will assist in developing
some diurnal rain showers surrounding the low. Flurries will be
possible at the higher summits, particularly those above 5000ft.
Guidance has backed off on instability Saturday, so chances for
deeper showers are limited. Regardless, winds on the SW portion
of the low cutting through NH will pick up Sat afternoon. This
will combine with the cool temps to create some raw wind chills
below freezing during the day, potentially into the lower teens
on peaks such as Mount Washington.
As typical with any blocking pattern, there is little arriving
that will move the low out of the region. Its residence seems
likely through Sunday as well, albeit shifted east more. NW flow
continue across much of the area with showers continuing.
The vertically stacked low will lose lower level strength
progressing into early week. This thus reduces the chance of
precip as NW flow channels in drier air from Canada. The next
chance for more area wide precip comes past mid-week,
potentially around Thursday as a front approaches from the west.
This appears to be quite weak and dissipating on multiple
guidance packages however.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Increasing low level moisture through tonight will
cause conditions to deteriorate to to IFR/LIFR in low cigs and
reduced visibility in BR. Conditions will improve Friday morning
before a broken line of showers and thunderstorms crosses the
area from late morning through afternoon with showers and storms
expected to be offshore by 20Z.
Long Term...VFR with some areas of MVFR are possible into the
afternoon hours Saturday and Sunday. There will be the chance
for -SHRA through Sunday and potentially Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Southerly winds ahead of a cold front will continue
SCA into Friday afternoon. Cold front crosses the waters Friday
afternoon bringing chances for thunderstorms and a wind shift
out of the west Friday night.
Long Term...Low pressure overhead will bring NW winds over the
waters through the weekend. This will result in a downtrend in
wave heights below SCA Saturday afternoon. Winds will hover
around 20 kts into Sunday night and Monday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides start their downward trend tonight after
peaking last night. Limited to no impacts were observed from
last night and have held off on a coastal flood statement as
tonight`s high tide will be lower.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Cornwell
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hanford CA
424 PM PDT Thu Jun 16 2022
.UPDATE...
Updated AIR QUALITY ISSUES section.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move across the region with a much cooler
air mass moving over Central California on Friday, with daytime
highs lowering to around 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Gusty
winds are expected across the region on Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will remain much cooler than average Saturday before
another warming trend resumes early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A nice clear day today with temperatures just a few degrees above
normal for this time of year. Breezy conditions near Merced are
developing in advance of an approaching cold front. Winds will
gust tonight across the NRN SJV tonight as onshore flow increases.
The cold front is expected to move across the CENCAL interior
tomorrow with increasing clouds and continued breezy conditions.
The HRRR and NAMNEST guidance is not advertising significant winds
across the Kern county mountain and desert regions tomorrow. It
will be marginal advisory criteria near Mojave.
As the front passes and clouds moves through, we will see a
significant cool down for tomorrow. We are forecasting a 15 to
near 20 degree drop from todays high temperatures. One concern we
have is that the rapid drop in temperatures may create some
problems for hikers and campers who may not be prepared for the
rapidly falling temperatures in the Sierra. Low temperatures
Friday night and into Saturday morning will be below freezing in
several locations down to near 6000 feet. Breezy conditions
combined with colder temperatures could lead to hypothermia
overnight on Friday. Please encourage everyone who might be going
camping Friday night to be prepared for cold temperatures and
breezy conditions in the Sierra. We are not expecting any
precipitation with the front at this time.
Unseasonably cold temperatures and breezy conditions will
continue into Saturday. Some residual clouds are possible early
Saturday in the Sierra. Temperatures will moderate Sunday and
Monday to near normal values. Upper level high pressure will build
in over the area by Tuesday and increase temps to near triple
digits in the SJV and Kern Desert areas. High pressure will hold
in strong over the region through next week with triple digits
expected in the SJV and Kern county desert regions.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across Central California through at
least the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
JDB
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1127 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Surface analysis this evening shows a weak frontal boundary still
draped across southern Central Indiana. High pressure was found over
W IA/E NB. Deep low pressure was found north of Ontario, but was
providing broad cyclonic flow as far south as the Great Lakes and
into the Ohio Valley. Water vapor shows a broad area of high
pressure aloft stretching across the southern plains and deep south.
A few upper level weather disturbances within the flow around the
broad high were triggering some minor thunderstorms over MO, W KS
and NM. Dew points across Indiana have fallen to the lower 70s
across northern and Central Indiana, while upper 70s were still
present on the south side of the cold front. Skies were mostly clear
across Indiana, but a few high clouds remained near the frontal
boundary across southern Central Indiana.
Overnight, the surface high pressure is expected to continue to
build into the Ohio Valley. This will result in mostly clear skies
and slightly cooler temperatures overnight for much of Central
Indiana. However the showers and storms in place over MO associated
with a weak upper disturbance are shown by the HRRR to arrive in
southern Central Indiana toward daybreak, spreading weak showers and
storms across the BMG, Bedford, Sullivan and Seymour areas. With the
surface frontal boundary still in this vicinity along with access to
the upper 70 dew points, we will include a small chance for showers
or storms late tonight and early Friday for the far southern parts
of the forecast area.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022
...Low risk of a strong to severe storm late tonight into
early Friday...
A weak cold front, oriented from SW to NE, has stalled over the area
leading to a swath of thin clouds overhead. Off to our northeast, a
few showers have developed along the front where forcing is better.
The stronger forcing could expand into eastern central Indiana
through the afternoon and evening, potently bringing isolated
showers or thunderstorms in our eastern counties. As the sun sets,
precipitation chances will drop again as daytime heating drops
off. In addition to the low PoPs with this front, slightly breezy
winds will continue into this evening with the relatively tighter
pressure gradients near the front.
Tonight will have one more warm night for the week with lows
overnight in the low to mid 70s.
Through the rest of the day and towards tomorrow morning, the ridge
that brought us the hot weather this past week will flatten and
retrograde westward. As it does so, a small vorticity max will slide
southwesterly down the ridge. This should be enough to trigger a
round of showers and thunderstorms along the stalled front late
overnight and into early morning. Models are indicating plenty of
instability and shear. Given the along-boundary shear vector
orientation and potentially strong cold pools, storms should quickly
congeal into a loosely-organized cluster capable of producing strong
winds. The greatest risk of strong to severe storms will be across
our southern counties during the overnight hours.
The ridge will continue to retrograde Friday, eventually centering
itself over the Ozarks. This will allow for the stalled cold front
to finally push south of the forecast area and usher in slightly
cooler and drier temperatures as we return to NW flow aloft.
Friday`s conditions will be more pleasant as dew points drop into
the 50s and clouds will clear out through the day. Highs tomorrow
will still be above normal, ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s.
Temperatures will continue to drop Friday night as overnight lows
are expected to fall from the mid 60s to upper 50s.
&&
.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022
On Saturday, in the wake of an amplifying and departing shortwave
trough, cool and dry air mass will overspread much of the eastern
part of the country. This will result in negative 2m temperature
anomalies of up to 5 degrees. We noticed a cooler trend in GFS and
its ensembles by a couple of degrees in the most recent model cycle,
but the ECMWF and its ensemble mean are slightly warmer. So, with
the conflicting signal we decided not to deviate from the blended
model approach. It is possible that a cooler air mass may occur
which would restrict high temperatures to the mid 70s area wide.
Noticeably drier air will accompany this cold front as well.
As the shortwave moves further way and its attendant surface high
moves east of the area, return flow will begin by Sunday bringing
temperatures closer to mid-June normals. However, since the
continental polar intrusion was so broad and extensive, return of
moisture will be delayed until later next week. We could see
increased mid-high level clouds cover from upstream convection on
Sunday into Monday on the east side of the ridge. As the ridge
builds in Tuesday, temperatures will be nearly as hot as we`re
currently experiencing. With the moisture return, heat index values
will again approach dangerous levels.
We have above average forecast confidence into the middle of next
week since models all agree on broad and extensive ridging across
the southern part of the country, and a shortwave trough moving
eastward across the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes by mid
week. There are some timing differences in the deterministic
guidance, but it`s not substantial. In most scenarios depicted by
the deterministic and ensemble guidance, a cold front will move into
the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Mesoscale details on
residual convection moving into the area from Wednesday night and
potential left over boundaries cannot be resolved at this time
range. Thus, there is some inherent uncertainty on the details of
convective coverage and timing that will be resolved as the time
nears. Early indications are that organized and/or widespread
convection will be unlikely since stronger westerlies aloft remain
north of our region, and overall shear will be weak. Even with weak
flow, modest westerlies aloft often support steeper midlevel lapse
rates above a warm/moist PBL, resulting in at least moderate if not
strong conditional instability. So, any severe storm threat would
probably be limited to brief single/multi-cells and associated
downbursts upon collapse.
As the cold front moves through, slightly drier air may return. At
least slightly positive midlevel height anomalies signal a warmer
pattern than normal toward the end of the week. But this is a time
where chaos in the models increases as is evident by looking at the
ensemble spaghetti 500-mb plots.
&&
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1126 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022
IMPACTS:
* VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period.
DISCUSSION:
Clear skies will be expected overnight and mostly clear skies will
be expected on Friday. Strong ridging is expected to continue to
develop over the plains resulting in NW flow aloft along with
subsidence. Furthermore surface high pressure is expected to build
across Indiana from the west on Friday.
A small caveat overnight...an upper level weather disturbance
over MO continues to generate some thunderstorms. HRRR suggests
these storms arriving in Southern Indiana between 11Z-15Z. This
will be a diurnal minimum for this type of storms. Thus confidence
is low on the progression and timing. For now...have just included
a VCTS mention at BMG to account for this.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...Puma
Short Term...KH
Long Term...BRB/Melo
Aviation...Puma
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1157 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022
Grids were freshened up based on recent observations and trends.
This led to no substantial changes at this time. At this time, the
rest of the overnight was left dry although a stray shower cannot
be completely ruled out.
UPDATE Issued at 840 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022
Cumulus have largely dissipated across East KY and those that
remain are shallow. These should generally also decrease
overnight. Recent convective allowing models have generally
trended toward less of a chance for activity this evening, though
some do have late night activity after the 6Z to 8Z period nearer
to the TN and VA border. This activity if it were to occur would
be in advance of convection now upstream of the area or an MCS
potentially moving into the OH Valley around an upper level ridge.
Numerous runs of the HRRR bring this activity into eastern KY
late on Friday morning or early in the afternoon with an
associated potential for gusty winds perhaps near or in excess of
50KT. There does remain differences from run to run with the
details, but the Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday
appears well warranted.
With the heat advisory having now expired, messaging for the risk
of severe thunderstorms on Friday will be expanded to a weather
story and associated social media posts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 501 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022
The latest observations show temperatures ranging in the mid to
low 90s across most of the area while dew points in the 70s make
it feel more like 100 to 105. Accordingly, the Heat Advisory
remains in effect until 8 PM this evening. Radar imagery shows
convection, some of which is in the strong to severe firing over
the over northeast Ohio and northeastward into the St. Lawrence
valley. An agitated cumulus field is found further to southwest
into southern Indiana and Illinois. The 20z analysis shows that
this area of convection is associated with a band of enhanced 850
mb moisture and subtle pre-frontal surface trough. The analysis
also shows the ~1020 mb surface high pressure, responsible for our
hot, steamy weather, situated just off the Atlantic Seaboard. A
stout ~594 dam closed high is centered just to our southwest over
the Ozarks. Well to our north, a robust ~545 dam low and strong
surface low pressure are situated near James Bay. A trailing cold
front extends S-SW from the low across the Lower Great Lakes and
into the lower Missouri Valley.
Models remain in good agreement with the synoptic pattern through
the short-term period. The upper low low will drop into northern
New England as the upper high will retreat westward into the
Central Plains. This will allow the aforementioned cold front to
sag southward across the Ohio Valley on Friday. Ahead of the
front, remnants of the subtle surface trough will drop into the
Commonwealth during the first half of tonight, but any convection
will be very sparse due to weak forcing.
The best chance for deep convection this evening appears to be
north of the Mtn. Parkway, over the higher terrain of southeast
Kentucky, and also out near Lake Cumberland. If a storm develops,
model soundings still show plenty of dry air in the mid-levels,
which could support strong wind gusts. A more notable but
conditional threat for severe weather exists on Friday. CAMS show
storms firing in the Lower Missouri Valley/Central Plains along
the cold front this evening. However, there is considerable model
spread as to where this activity initiates and maintains. In
general, the CAMS show this convection becoming a cold-pool
dominant MCS which then accelerate eastward into the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys late tonight and Friday morning before
eventually weakening/dissipating by the time it encounters the
western foothills of the Appalachians. Over the last 30 hours, the
HRRR (which usually struggles to resolve cold-pool dominant MCSs)
has very consistently maintained this MCS as it races eastward and
suggests that damaging winds will impact much of eastern Kentucky.
The other CAMS are quicker to weaken the MCS`s cold pool and in
some cases dissipate the system entirely before it reaches our
area. The shear for maintaining storm organization will be very
marginal once it reaches eastern Kentucky. Given the lack of any
other notable forcing, the system’s evolution will strongly
depend upon how the upstream activity and especially its cold pool
evolve tonight. With that said, model soundings show over 1,300
J/kg of DCAPE, over 3,000 J/kg of MUCAPE and steep sfc-3 km lapse
rates -- a very favorable environment for strong to damaging
straight-line winds if the MCS materializes. The actual cold front
will drop southward late in the afternoon and evening, but will be
weakly forced, likely attended by isolated to scattered convection
at best. Much drier and cooler air moves in behind the boundary
Friday night. Temperatures are expected to fall back into the
lower to middle 70s tonight before surging back into the upper 80s
to lower 90s on Friday. Refreshingly cool northerly flow will help
temperatures settle back into the upper 50s and lower 60s on
Friday night.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 437 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022
We start the extended on a pleasant note with temperatures closer to
average for this time of year. Unfortunately, this does not last
long, and the abnormally hot temperatures make a quick return for
the new week. Aloft, we begin the period with a large trough over
New England helping to squeeze the ridge further west and putting
our region under northwesterly flow. At the surface, Kentucky lies
under northerly winds behind a cold front that will have pushed to
our south, while a cool Canadian high nudges down over the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. All in all, this will bring some relief from
the recent heat. Highs Saturday and Sunday will range from the low
to mid 80s. The drier northerly flow will also help lows to become
almost chilly, at least relatively speaking. Lows Saturday night are
in the low 50s for most, though some of the deeper valleys could dip
into the upper 40s. Lows Sunday night are in the mid 50s.
Heading into the workweek though, the upper ridge moves east over
the area once again and the surface high shifts eastward over the
Mid-Atlantic. Consequently, temperatures take an upward turn. Both
deterministic and ensemble guidance point to well above normal, to
possibly record breaking, temperatures, and current forecast highs
Tuesday and Wednesday are in the mid to upper 90s. However, there is
some potential wiggle room there. There is some uncertainty about
how much rain will fall before we head into the extended, which
lowers confidence. Guidance also exhibits some spread as models
disagree around the strength of the ridging, with a few cooler
solutions being depicted. Overall, would not be entirely surprised
if adjustments need to be made with later updates, but did not feel
convinced enough to deviate from the NBM at this time given the
uncertainty. Will continue to monitor trends, but the extended is
expected to be hot regardless. However, dewpoints will be lower than
what we have been seeing with the recent heat, so that will
thankfully help keep the heat index values a bit closer to actual
temperatures. Later in the week, models suggest a possible front
approaching the region, bringing a slight dip in temperatures and
possible showers and storms. However, model agreement is poor at
this point, and only slight chance PoPs are in the forecast for
Wednesday night/Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022
VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through much of
the period. There will be two main exceptions. The first, river
valley fog with MVFR and IFR reductions during the 5Z to 12Z or
13Z timeframe that is not expected to affect the TAF sites. The
primary aviation concern will be the potential for thunderstorms
with gusty winds of at least 30 to 40KT for time during the 16Z to
20Z window. Any location impacted by a storm could experience
brief MVFR or even IFR conditions in the strongest cells. Winds
will be light and variable tonight, before becoming SW to W at
near 10KT after 13Z, before becoming more northwesterly toward
18Z and after.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1014 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast looks good with only some small changes. Latest
HRRR model continues to develop convection across parts of
southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee, generally along and
north of interstate 40, later tonight. Airmass will remain
moderately unstable with MLCAPES of 2500-3000 with DCAPES of
1100-1300. Mid-level lapse rates near 7 degrees will remain steep.
Can not rule out isolated strong to severe pulse severe storms
tonight.
Main concern will be damaging winds due to the high DCAPE, dry
and steep mid-levels, and melting of hail below the high freezing
levels.
Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly clear (south) with muggy
conditions remaining.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Main concern through the period of potential of convection.
Ridging over the area will weaken as an upper wave approaches.
This will allow for a greater chance of showers and storms at all
TAF sites. Timing of these scattered storms is difficult but best
chance is Friday afternoon.
Otherwise, as frontal boundary moves toward the area Friday the
pressure gradient will tighten producing breezy conditions in the
afternoon. Southwest to west winds will increase to 10 to 15kts
with gusts up to 20kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 97 74 90 63 / 10 20 20 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 93 71 85 60 / 10 40 20 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 74 94 70 85 60 / 10 40 20 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 92 65 81 53 / 30 40 20 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 525 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Will lead by saying that this discussion paragraph focuses on a
highly-conditional, low-end potential for thunderstorm
development. It may be likely that nothing will happen, but still
worth mentioning because the chance is non-zero. Between roughly
6-9 PM, there is a small chance for convective initiation near the
NE/KS border immediately along and north of a retreating frontal
boundary. The north side of this front is quite unstable, and
despite it being the "cold" side, temperatures are in the low 90s
and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s with mixed layer CAPE on the
order of 3-4000 J/kg. This zone is also characterized by
significant cyclonic curvature in the low levels of the hodograph
and sufficient deep layer shear to support supercell structure IF
convective initiation should take place. Current visible
satellite patterns in southern NE suggest a stable layer is in
place but immediately on the KS side the clouds take on a more
unstable appearance. Convergence in this zone is quite impressive
and the LCL-LFC relative humidity is forecast to increase over the
next 2-4 hours, perhaps increasing the probability of initiation.
If storms develop and subsequently organize into cyclonic
supercells, all hazards would be possible...but again this is a
highly conditional outcome and the end result could very well be
no storms at all. Looking west into north central KS, a convective
cluster is attempting to develop. This cluster may also have a
low end chance of organizing and forward propagating into the
instability axis and favorable low-level shear profile near the
front. This also is highly conditional upon it`s ability to be
maintained, but could result in a damaging wind potential. Beyond
this note, the remainder of the forecast and discussion are on
track for late evening thunderstorm development.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Potential for severe storms and locally heavy rain is the short
term problem from now through tonight, then attention turns to
excessive heat. Went ahead and issued an excessive heat watch for
all of the area from Noon Saturday to 10 pm Monday after
collaborating with neighboring offices.
Skies started out clear this morning but by early afternoon some
mid level clouds had bubbled up and a few of these had turned into
thunderstorms by about 145 pm around Lincoln. Think these will
continue to move east into southwest IA and end. So the early
evening may end up mostly dry in our area. Will still keep some
POPs going late this afternoon and early this evening, but higher
coverage is likely to wait until after 9 pm.
At mid afternoon today, a nearly stationary front at the surface
extended from northeast MO back across northern KS to a low in
CO. South of the front, in eastern KS, temperatures were in the
90s and dewpoints in the 70s. The KOAX sounding from this morning
only had a Precipitable Water (PW) value of 0.63 but looking down
toward KDDC the PW was 1.21 and they had a K index of 40. Moisture
will be transported into our area via a low level jet, which will
also provide lift north of the front. Recent RAP model solutions
show 0-6 km MUCAPE values increasing to over 3000 J/kg in a band
over our area, and PW values from 1 to 2 inches. The highest PW
values are forecast near the NE/IA/MO border. So, some severe
storms appear possible along with locally heavy rain that could
cause flooding - if storms stay over the same area or if the same
area gets multiple rounds of storms. These could linger until
around sunrise Friday, then the rest of the day looks dry.
Temperatures will top out mainly in the upper 80s to mid 90s on
Friday, with heat index values mostly 100 or less. The heat
really cranks up for Saturday through Monday. Air temperatures
should peak in the mid 90s to about 100 in eastern NE and in the
90s across western IA Saturday with heat index values 95 to 105.
Then heat index values should peak mostly from 100 to 108 Sunday
and Monday. An excessive heat warning may be issued at some point
for those days. Although we can`t completely rule out isolated
storms, the period from Friday afternoon through Monday morning
looks mainly dry as mid level heights increase and the atmosphere
becomes capped.
A frontal boundary is expected to move into the area from the
northwest Monday night and Tuesday, with slightly cooler
temperatures, more clouds and some chance for storms. Afternoon
highs should reach the 90s Tuesday and Thursday, with upper 80s
and lower 90s Wednesday. Storm chances seem highest for Monday
evening, then again from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Main focus in this TAF period is likely TS development at LNK and
near or over OMA. OFK is likely to remain dry. Have highlighted
most likely times for TS via FM group at LNK although it should be
noted that TS could persist beyond this time frame. OMA is
expected to be on the edge and could see a true TEMPO TS scenario
or could very well need a persistent TS FM group but for now have
highlighted with TEMPO. Outside of storms, expect VFR.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
DISCUSSION...Miller
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
817 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Another hot, humid evening for Middle TN. At 8 PM CDT, temps had
only dropped to the 80s to lower 90s, except 79 at "cool"
Crossville. Nothing was on radar this evening, but that could
change tomorrow morning. Storms already firing up over Missouri
are expected to head ESE Friday morning with a few pushing down
into our area. Sadly, coverage is expected to be just around 30
percent. The latest HRRR model shows isolated storms popping up
directly over our area around 4 AM CDT, but we do not see much
other support for this happening, so keeping the overnight
forecast rain-free for now. Friday`s scattered storms will occur
ahead of a cold front that will bring much welcomed relief for
Saturday and Sunday, with temps in the 80s and much lower
humidity.
No forecast changes are needed at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Continued heat advisory for most locations through 7 PM CDT
tonight. Still expecting a quite muggy night tonight with lows
mainly mid 70s, lower 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. At least for
the short term period, no more heat advisory products are expected
at this time. A weak surface boundary will approach mid state
region as Friday progresses. A weak upper level disturbance across
south central KY might work into northern and eastern portions of
mid state region as later tonight into Friday progresses also.
This weather setup might spur some isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms especially during morning hours on Friday. Some
strong thunderstorms could be possible with ample moisture,
instability, and a focusing lifting mechanism in place, and don`t
forget that enhanced diurnal heating influences might factor in
too. Highs will be a few degrees cooler tomorrow also, mainly low
to mid 90s, upper 80s to around 90 Cumberland Plateau Region. Yes,
some around 100 degree afternoon heat index values look to be
experienced on Friday afternoon west of Cumberland Plateau
Region, but nothing at or above 105 degrees. So a heat advisory
will not be issued for Friday as of this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
The upcoming holiday weekend will feature temperatures at or
slightly below seasonal normal values, much less humidity, and
dry conditions. Actually lows Saturday night will span the 50s.
One of the Founding Fathers of our nation, first President George
Washington, is attributed to saying "I cannot tell a lie." As
much as I would like to tell everyone that the possibility of
unseasonably warm temperatures has ended as next work week
progresses, I cannot tell a lie either. Look for high temperatures
to rebound back into mid to upper 90s on Juneteenth Holiday and
remain unseasonably warm through remainder of at least most of
next work week. Upper level high pressure influences to our west,
which in reality will keep northwesterly upper level flow across
mid state region this holiday weekend, will eventually shift
eastward and become established across our area. One reason
that we have continue not to reach the century mark yet is all
the green outside continuing to provide moisture in the air, what
we call evaporative transpiration, but even that process, as we
begin to dry out across mid state region as Saturday through next
Thursday progresses will become slightly diminished each day.
Both latest GFS/ECMWF model solutions showing one of the most
impressive upper level ridges in terms of strength settling over
our area Tuesday into Wednesday that the global model solutions
have shown in a while. It is looking more and more like the
century mark maybe toppled next week as little moisture expected
under this strong upper level ridging cap. Lowered NBM high
temperature values next Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons that
have been trending too high as of late for highs during our heat
wave event so far, but only by a couple of degrees at most.
Muggy conditions will once again be experienced at night as
lows in the low to mid 70s lows look to prevail. Highs
potentially around Nashville Metro Area could go over century
mark on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, and possibly
even Thursday afternoon also.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
VFR conditions with light winds expected at all sites through
tonight. After 14Z Friday, an approaching cold front will shift
winds to WNW near 10KT and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will form. Storms will not be included in tafs at this time
because of low coverage along with uncertainty about location and
timing. Friday morning radar and near term model trends may
support inclusion at some sites with tomorrow`s 12Z tafs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 77 95 70 86 / 10 30 20 0
Clarksville 75 91 68 85 / 10 30 10 0
Crossville 71 87 65 80 / 10 30 20 0
Columbia 74 94 70 87 / 10 20 20 0
Cookeville 74 89 67 81 / 10 30 20 0
Jamestown 70 87 63 78 / 10 40 20 0
Lawrenceburg 74 93 70 87 / 10 20 20 0
Murfreesboro 74 95 70 87 / 10 20 20 0
Waverly 74 92 70 85 / 10 30 20 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1033 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front gradually moves across the the region tonight. A
cold front will then move in on Friday and pass across during
the late afternoon into the evening. High pressure builds to the
west Saturday through Monday. The high weakens as a slow moving
warm front approaches from the west Monday night into Tuesday
night, possibly lifting through on Wednesday and into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Low confidence forecast tonight with potential convection. CAMs
continue to indicate varying solutions although the last three
runs of the HRRR have shown much less coverage than earlier this
afternoon. Have updated Pops to cap off at chance PoPs as
evidence is growing that coverage will be isolated to scattered.
A mid level shortwave, height falls, and approaching warm front
will be a mechanism for any convection. A broken line of
convection to the west has not shown any signs of organized it
is slowly approaches. There is one surface based cell that is
moving along a sharp surface based CAPE gradient in central PA
and another cluster of thunderstorms developing across north
central PA. The northern cluster appears to be elevated. This
activity could develop a bit more as it approaches over the next
few hours.
Still thinking any convection will occur about 03-05z west of
NYC, 04-06z in NYC metro, and 06-08z east of there. Any
convection is going to be elevated as there is a fairly strong
inversion around 2-3 kft. This should prevent any severe weather
tonight.
Height falls are expected at 500mb through tonight. An embedded
mid level shortwave ahead of a larger trough approaches tonight
and passes east of Long Island late tonight into early Friday.
At the surface, a warm front moves into the region from west to
east tonight, eventually exiting east of the region by early
Friday morning. The main concern with any convection will be
from locally heavy downpours. 35-45 kts of flow in the lower to
middle levels will help move activity along and inhibit any
flash flooding.
Low temperatures tonight were a blend of NBM and MOS consensus,
ranging from the low to upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
In the mid levels, the longwave trough continues to approach the
region with continuing height falls. At the surface, the local
region is in warm sector for Friday, with SW low level flow helping
provide warm air advection. A much warmer day is in store. Did not
take the highest of guidance considering the potential for pop up
showers and thunderstorms and the overall decreasing 850mb
temperatures forecast during the day. The NBM was used for high
temperatures, ranging from the mid 80s to near 90 for much of
the region.
A cold front will be approaching the region from the north and west.
With the increase in temperatures, surface based instability will
increase, potentially up to near 1000 to 2000 J/kg Friday morning
into Friday afternoon. The one main limiting factor for
precipitation will be drier air and the drying trend with lowering
dewpoints coincides with the increase in daytime instability. The
result is that most large scale model solutions are mainly dry
without indicating much of any shower or thunderstorm development.
However, mesoscale models such as the HRRR and the NSSL do indicate
widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development on Friday,
around 16-20Z. Will keep POPs no more than 30 percent because
of this uncertainty. The forecast 0-6 km bulk shear is near
45-50 kt. For the forecast region, there will be a marginal risk
of severe thunderstorms with the main threat being damaging
winds as well as the possibility of large hail. The drier air
in the mid levels will add to the downburst potential with any
thunderstorms that develop.
For Friday night, the mid level trough continues to push farther
south into the area. The cold front at the surface moves
southeast of Long Island Friday night, with a cooler and drier
airmass establishing itself in the area. Winds will be NW and
help advect in this drier and cooler air. Lows were taken from
MET guidance and NBM with more weight on the MET guidance and
lowered further slightly in a few spots. Lows forecast range
from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry conditions expected for this weekend as a surface cold front
pushes offshore on Saturday and a ridge builds to the west. This
ridge will remain to the west of the region into Wednesday as
another trough passes to the north and brings a warm front into the
region Wednesday into Thursday bringing the next chance of
precipitation to the area.
As for temperatures, Saturday will be cool with highs mainly in the
60s to low 70s which is 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal normals.
Temperatures warm up a tad on Sunday but remain below normal with
highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Temperatures for the week will
bounce back to near normal with temperatures in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front approaches this evening and moves across the
terminals overnight into Friday morning. A cold front follows
Friday afternoon and evening.
MVFR ceilings will continue tonight. KGON will likely stay VFR
through 05z before lowering to MVFR thereafter.
Probability for thunderstorms has lowered and have removed them
from the TAF. Showers remain possible tonight and an isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, generally 4z-7z from NYC
terminals on NW and 5z- 9z for Long Island and southern CT
terminals. Any shower could bring brief heavy rainfall and a
brief lowering in visibilities.
For early Friday morning, flight categories will range from MVFR
to locally IFR, especially near the immediate coast. Conditions
should improve quickly after 12z to VFR except for KGON where
MVFR may linger through the morning. VFR then prevails into
Friday afternoon.
SE-S winds 10-15 kt tonight with gusts around 20 kt possible
near the coast. Winds may weaken somewhat as the warm front
passes early Friday, but should pick back out of the SW through
the day, becoming 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Winds will shift
towards the WNW in the late afternoon as the cold front begins
to move through.
There is a chance for a shower/thunderstorm Friday afternoon,
but not enough confidence to include in TAF at this time.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Isolated thunderstorm possible 04z-07z.
Chance for IFR ceilings at KLGA, KEWR, and KTEB 08-12z Friday.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday night...WNW-NW winds G20kt diminishing overnight.
.Saturday...VFR. NW winds G20-30kt.
.Sunday...VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
.Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions expected tonight, all waters tonight, and the
ocean waters on Friday. For Friday night, the ocean SCA lingers
across Fire Island Inlet to Moriches until 8PM and across
Moriches to Montauk, lingers until 11PM. Non-ocean waters and
ocean west of Fire Island Inlet are expected to stay below SCA
criteria Friday night.
Behind a cold front, winds will gust out of the northwest and
increase through Saturday with gusts reaching SCA levels across
all the forecast waters by the afternoon. Ocean seas will also
build to around 5 feet. Winds and seas will diminish Saturday
night, falling below advisory levels. Sunday through Wednesday
winds and seas will remain below SCA levels across the forecast
waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
At this time significant or widespread flooding is not
expected tonight. Locally heavy rain is possible with minor
flooding.
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the remainder of
the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides continue to run high after a full moon Tuesday.
Minor coastal flooding benchmarks may be reached or exceeded by one
or two tenths of a foot along the back bays of southern Queens and
southern Nassau county with this evenings high tide cycle. A coastal
flood statement has been issued for this possibility.
A high risk of rip current is forecast on Friday for central
and eastern ocean facing beaches, otherwise for the remainder of
the ocean facing beaches there will be a moderate risk of rip
currents. There is a high risk of rip currents on Saturday for
all ocean facing beaches except in Brooklyn where the risk is
moderate.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday
evening for NYZ080-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ355.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...20/JM
HYDROLOGY...20/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
336 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Key Messages:
1) Isolated thunderstorm development continues through early evening
across the far southeast plains, with a strong storm or two
remaining possible.
2) Increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the mountains and mountain valleys on Friday, with localized heavy
rainfall the main threats.
Latest radar imagery is showing isolated thunderstorms developing
over the far southeast plains, mainly focused around the Kim area at
this time. This development, in response to lifting mid level energy
and a remnant boundary/surface trough in place, will likely continue
through early evening. Do expect this development to remain more
isolated, but should see this shift more northeast into Bent,
Prowers, and Baca counties late this afternoon. While a general
drying trend with lowering instability has been the trend,
previously noted moist advection is helping to keep MLCAPE values in
the 500-1000 j/kg range in this area. Wind shear remains weak/low,
though this MLCAPE and steep lapse rates with decent focus will
continue to support a stronger storm or two along and southeast of a
Kim to Lamar line. Wind gusts to around 55 mph with hail to the size
of pennies will be the main hazards. The remnant boundary/trough
continues to be a concern for possible brief landspout tornadoes in
this location as well, with the latest RAP analysis showing some
increasing trends with the non-supercell tornado parameter and 0-3km
MLCAPE/Surface vorticity. So, will continue to message this
potential as well, before all development ends by early this evening.
After a dry period tonight, expect deep southerly flow to return
higher moisture to much of the region but more so across the
mountains and mountain valleys. This will support increases in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms across these areas, and
especially over the Continental Divide. In this setup, localized
heavy rainfall will be the main concern. Elsewhere, conditions
should be on the drier side. Some potential for some storms to try
and move closer to the I-25 corridor, but at this time, this chance
looks to be low. Hot conditions will once again develop over the
plains Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 90s likely.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Key Messages:
1) Rain shower and thunderstorm chances will remain elevated for
southern Colorado, especially for the western and central mountains.
Saturday - Monday... The long term period will continue an active
and wet pattern across southern Colorado. The GEFS and EPS ensemble
models remain in solid agreement with each other, leading to higher
confidence in the forecast and related impacts. Synoptically, the
models keep a large ridge of high pressure over the central US, and
a trough across the western US and push it to the east/northeast
over this time period. With these systems in place, winds at the
surface and aloft will maintain a south/southwesterly component.
Given this, a deep moisture plume is expected to be streaming across
Colorado, especially over western Colorado given the placement of
the trough and ridge. Also with the southerly component winds,
orographic lift over the mountains will be taking place, especially
over the San Juan Mountains. With the rich moisture streaming
northward, and persistent orographic lift in place, daily rain
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the mountains,
particularly the San Juans, where lifting will be strongest. At
lower elevations, such as the San Luis Valley (SLV), precipitation
chances are also expected to increase throughout this period. Higher
moisture content will be advecting into the SLV as well, and this
will aid in maintaining rain showers and thunderstorms as they push
off of the mountains during the day. As the for the I25 corridor and
eastward across the plains, precipitation chances will remain low
Saturday and Sunday, as the deepest moisture will stay further west
and southerly winds do not support orographic induced precipitation
for most of that area. However, the aforementioned trough is
expected to push to the NE Monday, along with the moisture plume,
and this would be expected to allow for rain showers and
thunderstorms to push eastward off of the mountains and across the
eastern plains. As for temperatures, the same signals as previous
forecast are still present, with a cooler west and warmer east.
Areas along and west of the Sangre de Cristo mountains will remain
cooler because of the increase in cloud cover and precipitation,
which will help to keep temperatures near to below average for most.
Along and east of the I25 corridor, the ridge will remain the
dominant synoptic feature, and cloud cover will not be as thick, so
temperatures are expected to be near to above average for most
across this area.
Tuesday - Thursday... For the rest of the long term period, models
remain in agreement about pushing the trough to the NE and keeping a
large ridge of high pressure across the central US. This ridge will
become the dominant synoptic feature over the region. Given the
ridge is expected to stay over the central US, moisture will
continue to wrap around the western side of this feature. With the
moisture still streaming over the region, and westerlies around the
high still inducing orographic lift, daily rain showers and
thunderstorms are likely. Precipitation chances will be increased
for all of southern Colorado, but the highest chances will still
remain in the mountains. Temperatures will also continue the same
trend as before. The western part of the forecast area will be near
to slightly below average, while the eastern part of the forecast
area will be near to slightly above average.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022
VFR conditions with dry weather will continue across the TAF sites
for much of this period. Isolated thunderstorm development will
continue through early this evening, but still expect any
development to stay away from the terminals. Thunderstorm
development returns Friday afternoon, mainly for ALS. Confidence is
increasing that ALS will be impacted, with this potential increasing
through mid to late afternoon. Some potential that COS could briefly
be impacted by a storm, though confidence is low at this time. Winds
will generally be out of a south southeast direction, with gusts
increasing during Friday afternoon.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
940 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough will be over central NC through tonight. A
cold front will move through the area Friday and early Saturday.
Cool high pressure will build in Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 PM Thursday...
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms moved across the region from
northwest to southeast, bringing much needed rain to nearly all
locations. The bulk of the precipitation has moved south into South
Carolina, although a tongue of precipitation is persisting north
from Laurinburg up to Pinehurst and is slowly moving south, still
producing some lightning. This rain should move south of the area in
the next hour or so.
However, a cluster of thunderstorms developed around Washington DC
this afternoon and moved south, expanding slightly in coverage back
to the mountains and currently extends along the I-64 corridor.
While the HRRR and RAP initialize with these storms, they
immediately disappear one or two hours into the forecast, so there
is little numerical guidance to follow. This may be because the
HRRR/RAP model soundings for Richmond show a very strong inversion,
while a recent ACARS sounding does not show nearly as sharp of an
inversion, and storm dynamics may be overcoming the lack of surface
instability. These storms could make their way into northernmost
counties by 11pm-12am, and have added a slight chance of
thunderstorms to the forecast. The Storm Prediction Center has kept
a slight risk of severe thunderstorms through most of Virginia, and
continued the marginal risk across our forecast area. Eventually
these storms should die out, but cannot rule out that these storms
may make their way more than one county deep into North Carolina.
Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...
...A Slight Risk of Severe Storms with Damaging Wind Gusts and Large
Hail, along with Dangerous Heat Indices...
The upper ridge will push west on Friday helping to lower heights
aloft, however southwesterly surface flow will continue a moist,
warm airmass over the region for another day. Mostly clear skies
early in the day will allow for excellent insolation across the
region, then cloud cover increases in the afternoon as storms
develop. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s by the
early afternoon, and with dewpoints in the uppers 60s to low 70s,
heat index values will vary from 100-107 degrees, with highest
values across the southern Coastal Plain and Sandhills. A Heat
Advisory will likely be needed for areas with the highest
temperatures.
The warm and moist airmass will be in place as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Storms will develop ahead of the
front, and with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg, and weak shear, storms may
be more pulse-like rather than more organized. SPC now has the whole
area under a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe storms. Damaging wind
gusts will again be the main threat, however large hail is possible
in the strongest storms.
Storms will exit the area to the southeast by late evening, with
mostly dry conditions expected across the region overnight. The
drier air and lower temperatures will be delayed behind the front,
not arriving until later Saturday. Lows Friday night will be mild,
ranging from the upper 60s N to mid 70s S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...
The weekend looks beautiful with dry and cooler air moving in as
high pressure builds in from the NW. Highs will be in the mid and
upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s in
the north, to low 60s in the south.
As the high pressure slowly moves offshore Monday and Tuesday,
temperatures early next week will quickly climb back into the upper
90s. By mid week dry air mass continues to dominate the area but the
strong mid-level ridge will be over NC and hazardous temperatures in
the upper 90s to low 100s are expected. Dew points will be generally
in the 60s. For now heat indices for Wednesday and Thursday will be
below heat advisory criteria.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 940 PM Thursday...
Although precipitation has cleared all terminals, a high overcast
remains across the region. A broken line of east-west oriented
showers and thunderstorms extends from Richmond back towards
Blacksburg, and these storms remain strong. Although no additional
precipitation is included in the TAFs, cannot rule out the
possibility of one of these storms reaching one of the northern TAF
sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast, with winds veering
from the southwest to the west overnight. Model predictability with
thunderstorms has been very poor this week, and with only a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for Friday afternoon, no
mention of precipitation has been made in the TAFs.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ084>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJT
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...JJT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Green
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
911 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 907 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Nice little convective push associated with a decent tropical wave
across cenLA modeled by HRRR to live another couple of hours
before dissiapating while moving to the WNW around 20 mph. We
could see some gust toward 40 mph going against the grain so to
speak. So we have added slight chance to even some likely wording
to the rest of the evening anyway. No other changes needed at
this time. /24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
The persistent upper level ridge will be anchored just north of the
region by the start of the long-term period invof of Kansas City. As
it often the case with this positioning south of the ridge axis, we
should see weak disturbances riding along the underside of the ridge
and triggering some isolated to widely scattered convection Saturday
afternoon. Therefore, have carried slight chance PoPs areawide on
Saturday afternoon to account for this possibility even if being
slightly optimistic given our very hot and dry pattern as of late.
Regardless of the possible convection and additional cloud cover,
don`t expect much reprieve from the heat and humidity on Saturday
with high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 90s.
By Sunday into early next, it appears that we may get some relief
from the humidity as a weak cool front attempts to back door its way
into the region. Although the front isn`t expected to shift very far
into our area, model progs suggest that drier air will manage to
infiltrate deeper into the region and should at least knock the edge
off the intense humidity we have seen for much of this month. Other
than that, don`t expect much of any relief as far as temperatures
are concerned with the upper ridge building back southward toward
the region with afternoon highs pushing into the upper 90s to lower
100s areawide throughout next week with rain chances effectively
shut off once again. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
For the ArkLaTex terminals light and variable winds overnight and
limited if any MVFR at daybreak. The upper ridge is to our NE and
underneath a weak disturbance associated with an easterly wave has
a load of convection from LCH to AEX to JAN this early evening.
This inverted trough tropical feature will edge Wward into E TX
w/ east winds 5-10KT. We may have some better aftn coverage of
shwrs and T`storms. Further rain chances arrive during Sat. as a
weak fropa shifts our winds around w/ drier if not cooler air./24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 76 98 77 98 / 20 20 10 20
MLU 74 96 76 97 / 30 20 10 20
DEQ 72 96 73 95 / 0 10 0 20
TXK 75 97 76 96 / 0 20 10 20
ELD 72 95 73 95 / 10 20 10 20
TYR 75 98 76 98 / 0 20 10 20
GGG 74 98 75 97 / 10 30 10 20
LFK 74 98 74 99 / 10 30 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24