Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/16/22

National Weather Service Albany NY
1037 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching warm front from the southwest will bring increased cloudiness and a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms overnight, as high pressure moves east of Cape Cod. Thursday afternoon and evening brings another chance for a round of thunderstorms, particularly for the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, ahead of a slowly progressing cold front which will pass through the region on Friday. Some of the storms may be strong to severe. Cooler weather arrives this weekend beneath a deep upper level low. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... .UPDATE as 1037 pm EDT... High pressure is moving slowly east/southeast of Cape Cod. A warm front remains over western NY extending southeast into central PA. A few strong to severe thunderstorms popped up over western NY over the past few hours. The upstream 00Z KBUF sounding is very unstable with a SBCAPE of 4375 J/kg and steep mid level lapse rates. Sfc dewpoints are also in the lower 70s across western NY. Western NY is situated in the warm sector. Further east into the ALY forecast area, the air mass is more stable with temps cooling off into the 60s to lower 70s with dewpoints in the 50s to around 60. In the north/northwest flow aloft some convective debris clouds from an old MCS continues to move from N/NW to S/SE across the region. We have seen some thunderstorms pop up over southeast Ontario and the northern tip of Lake Ontario the past couple of hours. Based on the latest 3-km HRRR from 00Z we have slowed down the timing of isolated-scattered showers/thunderstorms north/northeast of the warm front over western-central NY and PA until after midnight. We do think some of the showers and isold thunderstorms moving towards the western Adirondacks may move in between 04Z-06Z/Thu. Some weak amounts of MUCAPE are present. However, the push southward is uncertain from that batch of showers and isold-sct thunderstorms. It is uncertain if the convection over western NY moving into PA moves into the ALY forecast between 08Z-12Z. The best chance may be south and west of the Capital Region. The 00Z 3-km NAM is further north spreading some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The latest 18Z GFS/00Z NAM shows Showalter Stability indices lowering to 0 to -3C mainly along and west of the Hudson River Valley overnight and prior to 12Z/THU. We still kept slight and low chances for thunderstorms due to the elevated instability implied up to the Hudson River Valley, Glens Falls/Lake George Region. We kept thunderstorms out of most of western New England, but later updates may need to add it in prior to 12Z/Thu if trends change. A milder night is expected compared to the last few with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s with a light southeast to east breeze of less than 10 mph. PWATs increase to 1.0-1.5" so some brief locally heavy downpours are possible with any elevated convection. Previous near term... By Thursday morning, the upper level ridge axis will be positioned over the region which should result in convection decreasing in coverage and eventually dissipating. Some differences among the guidance with regards to possible low stratus and marine influence lingering through the day for much of the area with the NAM most aggressive with this scenario. While surface winds will be southerly, the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly, which should allow for morning low stratus clouds to mix out. Leaning more towards the latter scenario with clouds decreasing and warmer temperatures, which follows closer to the NBM. Given ample sunshine/mixing, highs should reach the mid 70s to near 80s across the region. Clouds could linger longer across the higher terrain of western New England, where temps will be on the cooler side. During the afternoon, upper level heights lower in response to a trough approaching from upper Great Lakes. At the surface, guidance showing a pre-frontal trough likely sparking convection across northern/central NY during the early/mid afternoon. This activity should make it into northern/western parts of our area late afternoon (4-6 PM). Decent instability gradient expected to set up near the Mohawk Valley and western Adirondacks with up to 500-1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE from the HREF. Farther south/east, there looks to be some elevated instability, but surface-based CAPE looks meager. So the Storm Predication Center outlook for mainly Marginal to Slight Risk of severe storms north/west of the Hudson Valley looks good as the deep layer shear (0-6 km shear of 40-50 kt) supports organized/severe storms. A very small area of Enhanced Risk was added to northern Herkimer County this afternoon, so will continue to monitor trends. With such a sharp gradient of possible severe storms, the risk areas may need to be shifted east or west depending on where the best instability ends up setting up. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Convection that develops late Thursday afternoon will likely linger into the evening as the pre-frontal trough tracks eastward into New England. However, there should be a significant degree of weakening as the storms move SE into the Hudson Valley, Taconics and western New England due to storms entering a more hostile (stable) environment. Again, some elevated instability will lead to continued chances for thunderstorms although they are not expected to be severe. Once storms move south/east of the Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley the main threats look to be lightning/brief downpours. Storms should end by late evening as the pre-frontal trough moves east. It will be warm/muggy night with no real change in air mass. Low temperatures and dewpoints will mainly be in the 60s. On Friday, a deep upper level trough will start to settle in across the Northeast, with the main core moving from southern Ontario to southern Quebec. At the surface, a cold front will move across the region mainly during the morning hours to early afternoon hours with a few showers. However, the NAM is slower than the GFS and ECMWF, indicating potential for renewed development of showers and possible strong thunderstorms later in the day given ample heating and instability development. Will continue to monitor trends, but will tend to side with the consensus faster timing for now, which would limit the threat of afternoon storms. Temperatures should warm just ahead of the cold front, with highs in the lower/mid 80s from the Hudson Valley south/east and cooler 70s farther west where the cold front will move through earlier. Even across south/east areas, temperatures should start falling during the late afternoon as cold advection commences. It will also become breezy Friday afternoon with good mixing developing as the cold advection starts. W-NW winds could gust up to 30 mph in favored areas. A much cooler and less humid air mass will settle in Friday night as the anomalous upper level trough (forecast 500 mb height anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV becomes firmly established across the region. Widely scattered showers are possible north of Albany as a disturbance moves through the mean trough, otherwise it should be mainly dry. Lows will be much cooler than recent nights, ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Changeable conditions expected during the long term period, with unseasonably cool and blustery conditions to start, and ending with a return to more summer-like conditions by midweek. The weekend starts with an anomalously strong mid/upper level trough across the region Saturday, along with an unseasonable 850-700 mb cold pool (-2 to -3 SD according to the GEFS). This should create blustery conditions on Saturday, with a mix of sun/clouds, with clouds more prevalent in the afternoon and across higher terrain, where some isolated showers/sprinkles may also occur. Max temps are only expected to reach the 60s for most valley areas outside of the mid Hudson Valley, where some lower 70s are possible. Higher elevations are only expected to reach the mid 50s to lower 60s, coldest across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT. Brisk winds are expected as well, and for the high peaks, the combination of wind and cool temps may produce apparent temps only in the 40s for much of the day. Chilly for Saturday night, and with clouds and wind decreasing, temps should fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s for most areas, with 30s across portions of the southwest Adirondacks. It is possible that some frost occurs across portions of the southern Adirondacks if skies clear out. Fair but still somewhat cool for Sunday, with highs reaching the lower/mid 70s in valleys, and mainly 60s for higher elevations. It still may be breezy at times. Chilly for Sunday night again, with some frost potential across the southern Adirondacks, with lows mainly in the 40s and lower 50s, with some 30s for the southern Adirondacks. Rising heights should allow for dry and warmer conditions for Monday- early Tuesday. Then by Wednesday, a warm and humid air mass may expand into the region from the southwest. Some showers/thunderstorms may develop late Tuesday into Wednesday in the transition to this air mass, so some slight chance/low chance PoPs have been indicated. As for temps, still a bit below normal for Monday and Tuesday with 75-80 in valleys and 65-70 across higher elevations, and Mon night lows in the 50s for most areas (except some 40s for SW Adirondacks). Warmer and more humid by Wednesday, with highs in the upper 70s to the lower/mid 80s, and early morning lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A warm front will approach from the southwest late tonight into Thursday. Mainly VFR conditions are expected overnight. However, showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will approach from the west/northwest after 08Z/Thu. Have included a PROB30 group for roughly 08Z-13Z/Thu for -TSRA, although kept mention of just showers at KPSF. Periods of MVFR conditions will be possible within any heavier showers/thunderstorms. A break in the precipitation is expected for mid morning through at least mid afternoon, with VFR/MVFR Cigs and mainly VFR Vsbys. Another band of showers/thunderstorms may approach from the west/northwest after 22Z/Thu, with best chances for any impact at KALB/KGFL, where PROB30`s are indicated. A period of MVFR/IFR Vsbys/Cigs will be possible within any heavier showers/thunderstorms. Light/variable winds will trend into the south overnight at 5-10 KT (although may be slightly stronger at KALB). On Thursday, south to southeast winds will increase to 8-15 KT, with gusts of 20-25 KT possible, except possibly slightly stronger (25-30 KT) at KALB. There is a chance of low level wind shear late tonight at KGFL is surface winds remain below 8 KT, as winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the south to 30-40 KT. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms. Outlook.. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tonight, an approaching warm front brings increased cloudiness and a chance of showers and thunderstorms as an upper level ridge axis nudges east over New York state. Thursday afternoon and evening brings another chance for a round of thunderstorms, particularly for the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, ahead of a slowly progressing cold front which will pass through the region on Friday. Some of the storms may be severe. Cooler weather arrives this weekend beneath a deep upper level trough. Relative humidity values will increase to around 75 to 95 percent tonight, dropping to minimum values of between 50 and 70 percent on Thursday. Maximum RH values will be around 90 to 100 percent Thursday night. Winds tonight will be southeast around 10 mph or less, becoming southerly and increasing to 10 to 15 mph on Thursday. Some gusts up to 25 mph are possible on Thursday. Winds will remain southerly Thursday night around 5 to 15 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry weather will continue through this evening beneath an area of high pressure. A frontal system will move through the region Thursday and Friday with showers and a few thunderstorms. Precipitation amounts will depend on the coverage and location of activity but some locations with heavy thundershowers could pick up as much as 0.5-1" of rainfall. Some within bank rises of rivers, creeks, and streams are possible with this rainfall, but widespread hydrological issues are not expected thanks in part to a lack of antecedent precipitation. Drier weather then returns for the upcoming weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Picard/Wasula NEAR TERM...JPV/Wasula SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...Evbuoma/KL FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun HYDROLOGY...Main/Picard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1001 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 959 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Will expire the wind advisory for far north central ND and the Turtle Mountain region. Winds are not high enough, and are no longer expected to reach advisory criteria looking at the track of the low. Will keep the remainder of headlines as is with this update for now with still a few gusts in the ballpark. UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Strong west/southwest winds continue across much of the region as stacked low pressure moves east across the Northern Plains region. Have had a few winds gusts at or above 50 knots outside of the warned area, but not widespread or prolonged enough to justify an upgrade from the advisory to a warning. Thus far northwest ND has been on the low side of winds, but that should change over the next few hours as gradient forcing increases as the low moves farther of the reasons I opted to extend wind headlines across the west through this evening. Winds overnight should decrease, but we may need to extend some wind headlines overnight, most likely an advisory for some areas. First wave of showers is exiting off to our east, with another round now moving east-southeast into western ND, spreading eastward over the next several hours. Some lingering light precip across our north overnight is then possible. UPDATE Issued at 554 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 With additional shower activity moving into the region mid evening, opted to extend wind headlines across western North Dakota till 1AM CDT, same as when the wind advisory over central North Dakota expires. RAP and HRRR model soundings show potential for high wind criteria wind gusts through late evening west, especially associated with any shower that could mix down stronger winds to the surface. Will continue to monitor wind gusts for any possible upgrades central. Have had a few wind high wind gusts in Morton County, but right now not widespread enough to justify an upgrade at this point. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 A closed upper level low continues to rotate over the Northern Plains this afternoon, while an embedded shortwave pushes through northeast Montana into western North Dakota. Radar imagery shows showers associated with this wave spreading over northwest North Dakota, which will continue to move east and south into the evening. Wind gusts in eastern Montana have ranged from 50 to 65 mph this afternoon, while the surface pressure rise/fall couplet approaches the North Dakota border. As isallobaric forcing and greater momentum transfer potential arrives from the west, a few high wind reports will be likely for western North Dakota under the High Wind Warning over the next several hours. There is still an isolated potential for higher wind gusts further east of the warning under showers, but with the later arriving winds aloft this potential doesn`t carry enough certainty to change headlines at this moment. Tonight, shower activity and winds diminish with the loss of insolation, but the pressure gradient will still allow for 15-25 kt sustained winds overnight. Thursday, the pressure gradient shifts east with the exiting low and high pressure builds from the west. This will allow winds to diminish from west to east Thursday afternoon before becoming light late Thursday night. Partly cloudy skies Thursday and warmer temperatures are forecast with highs in the 70s across the state. Global guidance is producing low QPF over northern and eastern North Dakota during the day Thursday, but forecast soundings show subsidence and very minimal instability, thus the forecast was kept dry. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 The long term forecast period is highlighted by hot temperatures this weekend along with returning thunderstorm chances. Starting Thursday, an upper level ridge will build as the synoptic pattern becomes amplified and an upstream trough deepens and closes over the Pacific coast. The upper level ridge axis will park over the Northern Plains this weekend, which will bring the hottest temperatures of the year so far. NBM shows high confidence in widespread highs in the 90s each day, with some locations possibly reaching 100. Additionally, the ridging pattern will allow for southerly return flow and the poleward advection of low level moisture, bringing surface dew points into the 60s. Heat index values exceeding 100 F will be possible, especially east, which may necessitate Heat Advisory headlines. Morning low temperatures should be rather warm, especially east again where lows in the 70s are forecast on Sunday. As low level moisture pushes north into the region, initially low but non-zero chances for convection develop while this moisture moves in under very steep mid- level lapse rates associated with the ridge aloft. Given the likelihood of initially significant capping, surface based convection is not expected, but nocturnal low-level jet initiated convection will be possible. Global guidance is picking up on this possibility as slight chances for precipitation have been introduced to areas of the state Friday night and Saturday morning. Then on Sunday as the ridge begins to shift east and southwest flow develops aloft, greater chances for convection develop and severe weather may be possible given the moisture and instability in place. Through the first half of next week, 500mb clusters show good agreement in the western closed low opening and pushing east, which should continue precipitation chances in the Northern Plains during this period. This will also allow the hot weekend temperatures to exit with a modest cool down by mid-week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Strong winds and MVFR ceilings will highlight the beginning of the 00Z TAF period. West to southwest winds will remain strong through this evening across western and central North Dakota. Sustained winds of around 30 kts and wind gusts to around 50 kts expected, especially at KXWA-KDIK. Locally higher wind gusts remain possible this evening as scattered to numerous showers move east across the local area. Low VFR to MVFR cigs will remain across the area overnight, improving by Thursday afternoon. Winds will also subside overnight but will remain breezy through the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday for NDZ001- 002-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>047-050. High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday for NDZ009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...AE LONG TERM...AE AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
802 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 233 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Satellite shows no clouds across the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures will continue to climb a bit more over the next couple of hours, with temperatures already in the mid 80s for the metro. Winds are relatively light for the urban corridor but are a bit more gusty in the high country. Expect little change overnight with light winds and lows falling back into the low 50s. Tomorrow will see a ridge begin to build back into the area and we`ll see similar conditions as today. Mid-level temperatures are a few degrees warmer so highs should make it back into the low to mid 90s, with low 100s possible for the far eastern plains. There is a very slight chance of a late afternoon/early evening storm for Denver into the I-76 corridor as low-level moisture advection brings better dew points to the plains. However, moisture depth isn`t particularly deep and there is still some uncertainty regarding how quickly the surface moistens tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions are likely over the high country like today, with elevated fire weather conditions continuing. See the Fire section below for additional details. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 233 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 A pattern change upcoming for later this week and into the weekend. High pressure ridge aloft will be building over the central plains while a strong low pressure area deepens over the Pacific Northwest. This will result will put Colorado under a moderate southwest flow pattern and will begin to draw subtropical moisture into Colorado from late Friday and through the the weekend. Initially, on Friday, moisture will be confined mainly to the mountains as the ridge aloft is just barely east of Colorado. There could be a few storms/showers that drift over the urban corridor Friday evening. Conditions will be hot over the plains on Friday as 700mb temperatures climb to around +17c. This will result in readings in the mid to upper 90s and possibly 100 degrees in a few locales over the plains. The record for Denver is 100 on Friday so may be a few degrees short. In addition, could be seeing an increasing in hazy, smoky conditions on Friday from fires from New Mexico and Arizona. Latest HRRR smoke guidance showing an increase in smoke as early as Thursday night and increasing even more on Friday. Overall trend through the weekend is for continued good chances for showers and thunderstorms in the mountains and a slight eastward progression of potential storms on the plains on Sunday and especially on Monday. Precipitable water values increase to just over an inch on the plains so heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main impacts. The west coast trof ejects out into the northern Rockies early next week as main plume of moisture shifts especially by Tuesday and Wednesday. There will also be a slow cooling trend from late weekend through early next week with increasing cloud cover. There will still be near critical fire weather conditions on the plains on Friday and Saturday but recent green-up will keep overall fire. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 551 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 VFR through the TAF period. Winds are expected to remain light. Drainage winds will gradually establish later this evening with E/SE winds 5-9 kts until 22z, then 10-15 kts after 22z. No cloud cover or precipitation is expected through 18z Thursday. Some mid level cloudiness developing after 21z Thursday. High based shower or tstm could start to impact the terminals after 22z, so introduced vcsh in the terminals around that time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 800 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 The Red Flag Warning for South Park was allowed to expire at 7 PM. Elevated fire weather conditions across the higher elevations of the forecast area on Thursday, especially over South Park. Gradual moisture advection will lead to a slight increase in daytime humidities, but will still be at or below 15% across much of the area. Winds aloft are also forecast to be weaker, and only a few gusts above 30 mph are expected. Though FZ214 will be close to reaching criteria, not enough confidence in the setup to justify any highlights for tomorrow. There will be elevated fire danger across the plains for Friday and the weekend with dry and breezy conditions. However, green-up continues which will keep the overall threat of fires across the plains on the lower side, so no watches/warnings will be issued. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 233 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 There will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms in the mountains from Friday afternoon through the weekend with the threat for heavy rain with the showers and storms on the fire burn scars. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hiris/Holdren LONG TERM...Entrekin AVIATION...Cooper FIRE WEATHER...Entrekin/Cooper HYDROLOGY...Entrekin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1109 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms after expected to end the work-week before gorgeous weather abounds for the weekend. Thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening will likely be severe with damaging wind gusts, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 02Z surface analysis places a stationary front over the Allegheny Plateau. An anomalous upper level ridge has successfully suppressed convection so far this evening. However, the bulk of latest guidance indicates a weak shortwave rounding the crest of the ridge will initiate thunderstorms late this evening over northwest Pa. Many of the latest convection-allowing models, including the HRRR, develop this cluster of storms into a MCS, which tracks southward through the eastern half of Pa late tonight. Plenty of instability and sufficient deep layer shear on the order of 30-40kts support this possible scenario. The primary threat of severe wx should be along and just east of the stationary front, or roughly over the western half of the forecast area. Further east, model soundings indicate weaker and mostly elevated instability. Increasing low level shear and low LCLs indicate a brief tornado over north central Pa can`t be ruled out late this evening. However, the primary threat will be damaging straight line wind gusts. Although ensemble mean qpf is between 0.1 and 0.5 inches, will have to watch for isolated flash flooding across the north central mountains, where the latest HRRR and earlier HREF both support the potential of spot amounts of 3+ inches. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... There should be a lull in convective activity Thursday morning into early afternoon, then falling heights ahead of approaching cold front combined with heating of moist/unstable airmass should result in another round of potentially severe thunderstorms during the PM hours. The consensus among convection-allowing models indicates early afternoon initial storm development over northwest Pa will rapidly grow upscale under the influence of strong forcing ahead of upstream shortwave. High instability, combined with strong mid level winds/deep layer shear, support a good chance of damaging wind gusts accompanying the developing line of convection. The greatest risk appears to be over the western half of the forecast area, along and west of stationary front. Although damaging wind gusts are the primary threat, large hail is also quite possible over the central and western counties, where capes in excess of 2000 J/kg are progged. Enhanced low level shear in the vicinity of the front could also potentially result in an isolated tornado over the western half of the forecast area. High pwats and instability should certainly support some torrential downpours. However, the anticipated progressive motion of the convection may limit the threat of flash flooding. The wettest members of the HREF currently cap spot amounts in the 2-3 inch range, with most locations in the 0.25 to 0.75 range Thursday PM. Current guidance indicates the mid level shortwave and associated band of strong storms will exit the southeast part of the forecast area by late Thursday evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There is a slight chance of a shower in spots early Friday in association with a trailing secondary cold front and trough axis, but larger scale subsidence and drier air moving in will keep most locales dry. Beyond that, a minimal amount of spread among medium range guidance is supporting a high confidence forecast of dry and cool weather for the weekend, as high pressure and associated low-pwat airmass builds southeast across the area. Remarkably cold air for mid June looks to advect southeast into northeast PA at the 850 mb level with values of 4-7C. This is a bit warmer than previous guidance, but still expect highs 5-10 degrees below average this weekend, despite a good deal of sunshine. Sunday night could be the chilliest night of the stretch with high pressure over the region providing the most favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Warmer and more humid conditions should return by early next week, as surface high pressure passes southeast of PA and a warm front approaches from the midwest. Ensemble plumes support chance PoPs Monday and Tuesday, focused mainly during max heating of the afternoon and early evening. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Not a lot of chance as of late evening, low clouds out of AOO and JST now. Still low clouds at UNV. Minor changes made to the TAFS as of late evening. Earlier discussion below. For the 00Z TAFS, held onto timing of lower clouds and fog tonight and early Thursday. Lower clouds at times now across the far west, where dewpoints have come up some since early this morning. Still the drier air to the east not all that far away yet. Anyway, Winds kicked up at IPT during the last hour, typical of this time of day. Timing of showers and storms for Thursday looks to be from west to east later in the afternoon into the evening hours. Outlook... Fri...Improving conditions. Sat...Mainly VFR. Lower CIGS possible across the north and west early. Sun...VFR. Mon...Mainly dry, but a chance of a shower late across the west. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Gutierrez NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Gutierrez LONG TERM...Guseman/Fitzgerald AVIATION...Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
639 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 442 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Rain and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening before a drier pattern into the weekend. Very windy tomorrow and a return of very hot temperatures Sunday-Monday. An upper level low continues to spin over the Canadian Plains, dragging warm moist air up the Mississippi and along a stationary boundary stretched from Iowa to Lake Superior, accompanied by a upper level jet. Closer to the frontal boundary in NW WI, messy embedded thunderstorms continue to scream northeast along mean winds of 50-60 knots. While these storms have plentiful bulk shear to work with, they are somewhat removed to the best instability and any surface-based potential and appear to be mostly sub-severe at this point. Precipitation in NE MN is mostly rain with some embedded rumbles of thunder. Some of the radar returns over north central Minnesota are likely struggling to materialize at the ground thanks to low level dry air apparent in RAP soundings and current observed dewpoint depressions. Further west in NW MN, a line of storms has fired along a surface boundary visible in surface observations and radar. These storms have gone up in an isolated pocket of marginal shear and instability but could potentially pose a sub to near severe downburst wind threat with around 1000 J/kg of DCAPE, steep mid level lapse rates thanks to some cooler air, and dry mid levels. Any severe precipitation should be out of the CWA by mid evening. Tomorrow, a tighter pressure gradient will combine with steep low level lapse rates to pick up winds out of the west-southwest as early as daybreak. Ensembles put winds in the max percentiles, especially south of Highway 2. The Euro ENS EFI is over 0.8 at multiple points across the CWA for max wind gusts, indicating a potentially significant wind event. Model soundings indicate steep low level lapse rates which could be able to transport down 850mb winds of 35-45 knots to the surface. Have brought wind gusts up to 34-37 knots in places but have held off on a Wind Advisory for now. One may be needed, particularly along the North Shore, through the Twin Ports, and across NW WI. Further into the extended forecast the big story is the signal for the return of heat to the Northland. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through Friday but a large ridge across the central CONUS looks to usher back in an extremely warm airmass. With stronger southwest winds, communities along the lakeshore may not benefit from as much natural Lake Superior air conditioning this time. Hottest days appear to be Sunday-Monday with dew points in the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Storms are largely clearing out of NW WI this evening with a few showers lingering in northern MN. There is also a line of storms 70 miles to the west of INL but radar trends show this line losing strength rapidly. If they do manage to hold together it will cross INL a little after 01Z. INL will still have several more chances for rain later tonight and through tomorrow with MVFR ceilings. Additionally, LLWS will impact several terminals tonight. Tomorrow, a strong west wind will impact all terminals with gusts in excess of 30kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 442 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Fairly calm conditions today will begin to change early Thursday morning and through the day. Strong and gusty winds from the west- southwest will build to gust around 30 knots in the afternoon. Some gale force gusts may be possible through the Wisconsin nearshore waters, especially closer to shore. This will force waves of 3-5 feet along the South Shore and through the Apostle Islands. With a westerly wind direction, mariners along the cliff-line from Port Wing to Sand Island should use extreme caution as waves can double in size and become erratic and unpredictable near caves and cliffs. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect tomorrow morning. Additionally, marine fog will likely continue overnight. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 7AM Thursday for all of Western Lake Superior. Visibilities should begin to improve with decreasing dewpoints through the day tomorrow. Winds turn northerly and calm down overnight into Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 57 74 55 76 / 10 10 0 0 INL 56 73 51 74 / 40 40 0 0 BRD 60 76 55 81 / 10 0 0 0 HYR 55 77 53 78 / 10 10 0 0 ASX 57 77 55 75 / 10 10 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ021. LS...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-140>148- 150. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ121- 142>148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ140- 141. && $$ DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Levens
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1202 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 .AVIATION... The atmosphere is well capped with convective inhibition between 4.0 and 8.0 kft. There has been no forward propagating cold pool generated with the thunderstorm complex. Therefore, confidence remains high that no widespread shower or thunderstorm activity will track into Southeast Michigan. Decaying convection will gradually move eastward this evening accompanied by a wind shift. This enhanced mesoscale feature will push through the area roughly 7-10Z. Included a tempo for some isolated thunder at MBS with tempo showers at FNT. For the Detroit terminals, just included a wind shift to the northwest and some VCSH. A very narrow axis of modestly deeper moisture will anticyclonically pivot through Southeast Michigan between 09-15Z. Short residence time of moisture with nocturnal minimum in diabatic heating limits the precipitation potential Thursday. Models support very dry air with active subsidence between 2.5 and 10.0 kft agl Thursday. Dry conditions with SKC. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for thunderstorm activity between 07-10Z tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 DISCUSSION... Dangerously hot and humid conditions are largely on track today with the Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remaining in effect into tonight. A very warm start to the day as temperatures around 8 am were in the low to mid 70s. The southwest winds kicked this morning and finally ushered in the low 70s dewpoints. The daytime heating and depth of mixing has resulted in some gusts of 15-20 mph while the limited cloud cover has brought afternoons highs well into the 90s as expected. Current heat indices at press time have climbed to or above 100 degree mark for several locations across southeast Michigan. Daily record high temperatures also being challenged today with FNT and MBS having currently tied the record as of 1915Z. Minimal cumulus have developed so far this afternoon with capping likely preventing any precipitation chances through this evening. The upper ridge axis sliding to the east will be followed by increasing height falls associated with closed mid/upper low pressure system across central Canada tonight. This will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight with the inbound surface trough and cold front. Arrival of this activity will be after midnight tonight with bulk of activity occuring between 1 am and 8 am. There remains some question as to how well this activity will hold together and its intensity after crossing Lake Michigan and into northern Lower and central Michigan. A weakening trend with the complex gusting out before it reaches the Tri-Cities appears like the more likely scenario, especially given the warm mid levels that will help cap activity. However, the RAP for tonight still offers a corridor of instability with MUCAPE of over 2000 J/kg. The steep mid level lapse rates up to 7 C/km and 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-50 kts will also be supportive of thunderstorm activity if the complex can maintain some organization as it arrives. Current thinking is there will be a decent shot at some scattered showers and thunderstorms moving into the CWA, especially north of I-69 corridor of southeast Michigan, but with a lower severe potential. A Marginal Risk is in place northwest of a line from just north of Flint to Bad Axe where an isolated strong to severe storm is possible. Passage of the front will begin to shove the 70s dewpoints out of southeast Michigan throughout the morning and early afternoon Thursday with dewpoints plummeting into the 50s by peak heating. The warmer airmass, however, will still be lingering with 925 mb temperatures still in the low to mid 20C range. This will be supportive of a another day with above normal temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. The lack of humidity will keep max heat indices well below 100. Base of the upper trough with the mid level low over the Hudson Bay will send some shortwave energy over Michigan Friday and then into the weekend as it drifts into eastern Canada. Surface high pressure moving in from the west and drier northwesterly flow should keep conditions dry into the weekend. A stronger surge of cooler air will move in over the weekend as well bringing daytime highs back down into the 70s for the weekend. There will be some increasing moisture on Sunday that warrants a slight chance PoPs, but any coverage looks limited with the presence of the high pressure still lingering over the region. Heat and humidity make a return as an amplified upper trough across the plains begins to work eastward over the region early next week. Temperatures at 850 mb and 925 mb climb above 20C again for Tuesday and will support daytime highs into the mid/upper 90s and make a run at daily record highs. Current forecast dewpoints are to around 70 degrees, which would push heat indices near 100 again. MARINE... Hot and humid conditions persist through the afternoon as ridging aloft supports clear skies and light southwest flow this afternoon and evening. A surface cold front then tracks through the region late tonight into early tomorrow morning which will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out across the northern half of Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay. A brief period of gusty winds will be possible as the front pushes through. More favorable wind field arrives tomorrow afternoon across Lake Huron, prompting Small Craft Advisories for the Lake Huron nearshore zones tomorrow afternoon and evening. While low level thermal profiles remain stable over the open waters, gusty winds around 25 knots will be possible close to the shoreline within westerly offshore flow. Gusts diminish overnight Thursday before picking up again on Friday and Saturday as winds become more northwesterly. High pressure builds in late this weekend resulting in calmer marine conditions. CLIMATE... Here are the record high temperatures for Wednesday June 15th: Detroit 95 (set in 1988) Flint 93 (set in 1988) Saginaw/Tri-Cities 93 (set in 1994) Here are the record high tempertaures for Tuesday June 21st: Detroit 96 (set in 1933) Flint 98 (set in 1923) Saginaw/Tri-Cities 95 (set in 1988) && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Heat Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ068>070- 075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422-441>443. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....99 DISCUSSION...AA MARINE.......MV CLIMATE......SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
801 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 744 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 The overall severe threat for tonight appears to be decreasing as the better forcing appears to be located to the southeast of the area. However, moisture return is occurring east of KGLD as a retreating dryline is evident on radar and SPC Mesoanalysis. Due to this moisture return a slowly northward propagating frontal boundary, the potential does exist for a isolated or widely scattered thunderstorms after 2am MT east of Kansas Highway 25. CAMS have been backing off on initiation, but usually in weak forcing events they do have a hard time picking up on initation. Due to this will maintain slight chance pops. If a storm were to occur hail up to quarter size would be possible as RAP soundings indicate 2000-2500 j/kg of MUCAPE across Gove/Graham counties near 12Z. Wind shear will be fairly weak around 25 knots may limit storm organization and potentially any hail threat. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Tonight...a frontal boundary currently south of the area this afternoon is forecast to lift north into the area after midnight. There is a considerable amount of instability around 2km with limited inhibition. As a result, will maintain (for now) slight chance pops for thunderstorms generally in the vicinity of I-70 plus a row of counties either side in western Kansas. There is a threat for severe thunderstorms with large hail being the primary hazard. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 50s to around 60. Thursday-Thursday night...monsoonal type moisture arrives in the east-southern zones Thursday afternoon supporting previous forecast of slight chance pops. Could see an isolated thunderstorm very early in the evening otherwise it will be dry. High temperatures rise into the lower 90s to 102 degrees (hottest in Logan and Gove counties. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 60s to around 70. Friday-Friday night...a 595dam high pressure center is expected to reside over southern/southeast Kansas during the day, expanding its coverage during the night. The pressure gradient between this high and the deep low pressure system over the west coast of the country will increase, supporting breezy to windy southerly winds. High temperatures are expected to range from the middle 90s to around 100 degrees in far eastern Colorado to the upper 90s to around 104 degrees elsewhere. Low temperatures are expected to be in the middle 60s to lower 70s. Saturday...little change in the upper level pattern. High temperatures look very similar to Friday with middle 90s to 104 degrees with breezy to windy southerly winds. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 136 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 For the extended period, the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF do show the upper ridge over the Plains region sliding slowly eastward through the forecast. This will keep the entire region under southwest flow aloft during this time. Down to the surface, lee-side trough coming off the Front Range late in the weekend, will meander over west/central Kansas as a front. Chances for rw/trw will result, aided in part by several shortwaves working along the western side of the ridge. Increased areal coverage of precip does occur from Monday into Wednesday, as low level moisture increases as the front sets up in Kansas. With the southwest flow aloft, expecting above normal temperatures through much of the forecast, especially for daytime highs east of the Colorado border. RH readings during the day will range in the mid and upper teens Sun-Mon, but increase through midweek next week into the 20s as remnant surface moisture/rain chances increase. Also with the rain and heat expected, the region will see several low level jets around 850mb pass through the region, allowing for the potential for windy conditions to ensue. If enough mixing occurs, steady 20-30 mph possible with gusts at times to 40 mph in some locales. These conditions could occur during the daytime and evening hours. For temps, daytime highs to end off the upcoming weekend will have a range from the upper 90s to low to mid 100s on Sunday, with warmest areas east. Going into Monday, slightly cooler in northeast Colorado in the mid to upper 90s with the remainder of the cwa the same as Sunday. By Tuesday, highs will range from the upper 80s west to around 100F east. On Wednesday, mid 90s to around 100F. Lows in the extended will have a range for Sat-Sun nights in the mid 60s west to mid 70s east. For next Mon-Tue-Wed nights, upper 50s west to around 70F east. With the expected heat in the extended period, heat index values come into play for the daytime heating timeframe. With low RH readings during the afternoon/evening hours, expecting heat indices to remain at or below forecasted highs. Overnight though, heat advisories may be needed as the value of 75 degrees for nighttime heat index versus 105 or higher during the day, might be reached. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 454 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022 VFR conditions are expected throughout the entire period for each site. Winds will be just under 10 knots at the start of the period, but will become light and variable overnight. A very conditional chance for some storms does exist after 09Z for KGLD but will refrain from including in TAFS until confidence increases in the formation. Winds will then turn easterly tomorrow at around 10-12 knots. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1035 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 1035 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Outflow boundary has raced well out ahead of convection as the storms moved across Lake Michigan. Gusty 40 to 45 mph winds can be expected with this gust front as it moves east across areas from Baldwin to Fremont through 11 PM. The severe weather threat appears to be low for now but we will have to watch for any storms initiated along the outflow boundary and also monitor for excessive rainfall overnight if any training of storms occurs, as is currently happening across southern Wisconsin. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 --Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tonight-- All eyes this evening will be on the line of convection which evolves/congeals over Wisconsin then makes a run at wrn Lwr MI later this evening. Even though Lk MI water temps are cold there`s plenty of instability rooted just above the stable marine layer to sustain a line of storms as it crosses the lake. Once the storms get here, SBCapes over Lwr MI stay elevated at 1500-2500 j/kg much of the night in very warm/moist environment, allowing at least scattered convection to continue well into the overnight. Also a low level jet of 40 kts will be present along with around 30-35 kts of deep layer shear per RAP guidance. Expectation is for wind gusts of 30-50 kts to impact the Lk MI waters and coastal counties north of Holland after 9 PM or so - either with the arrival of outflow boundary or by the line of storms itself. Soundings show Dcapes around 1000 j/kg over Lwr MI ahead of the front lingering tonight due to nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates below the cloud layer. This is supportive of a gusty wind threat persisting even as the storms continue inland into the overnight hours. Storms exiting/weakening by 4-5 am. --Quite Breezy, Less Humid Thursday-- Still rather warm behind the cold front on Thursday with highs well into the 80s, but arrival of dew points in the 50s from the west will usher in less oppressive conditions. Once deeper mixing develops in the afternoon and 40-45kt westerly low level jet arrives within base of upper trough digging into the nrn GrtLks region, expect some healthy gusts of 30 to 40 mph in the afternoon. Strongest wind gusts are expected to be north of I-96 and could even approach wind advisory criteria near/north of Hwy U.S. 10. --Cool and Comfortable Weekend-- A large cool/dry Canadian sfc high impacts the region Friday through Sunday, keeping humidity in check and providing highs in the mid to upper 70s. Even some chilly overnight low temps expected, especially Friday night, when lows could dip into the 40s in some spots. The next chance of convection commences on Sunday as warm front begins to shift back in our direction, although confidence low as to coverage/timing of that risk. --Heat and Humidity Returns Next Week-- Strong ensemble support for at least a few days of temps back up near 90 next Monday through Wednesday, although frontal boundary progged to slip south through the area Wed night may bring a round of storms followed by cooler temps/lower humidities. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 742 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 VFR conditions will continue this evening then thunderstorms will move through Lower Michigan overnight with areas of MVFR and brief IFR conditions in heavy rain and the potential for hail and winds in excess of 40 knots. There will also be LLWS this evening. Surface winds will gust over 20 knots at times and again on Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Waves so far at Ludington have stayed below 3 feet, but southerly flow will be ramping up this evening. We are extending the BHS/SCA north of Grand Haven into Thursday based on the strong west-southwest winds which arrive behind the front. High pressure follows for Friday-Saturday, but some suggestion of a strong north flow event for Saturday in the west MI nearshore in advancing sfc high pattern. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 With the record set yesterday at KMKG, we took a look at all of the max temperature and warmest low temperatures for today for each site. The records are below: Record High Temperature Record Warmest Low Temperature Grand Rapids: 97 - 1894 76 - 1994 Muskegon: 90 - 1987, 1954 74 - 1994 Lansing: 92 - 1994, 1988 76 - 1981 Kalamazoo: 96 - 1987 75 - 1994 Battle Creek: 95 - 1897 76 - 1981 Jackson: 92 - 1994, 1988 76 - 1981 && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late Thursday night for MIZ037- 043-050. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LMZ847>849. && $$ UPDATE...Ostuno DISCUSSION...Meade AVIATION...Ostuno CLIMATE...NJJ MARINE...Meade
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1105 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend down from the north tonight thru Thu with temperatures remaining above normal. Temperatures will be hotter Fri ahead of an approaching cold front. Isolated to scattered convection possible ahead of the cold frontal passage late Fri. Relatively cooler and drier weather to follow for the weekend as high pressure prevails. Dry weather with a warming trend is expected early next week. && .UPDATE... 1100pm edt Update... Canceled the coastal flood advisory for the beaches originally scheduled to expire at midnight. Tide levels at Johnny Mercer and Springmaid Piers have dropped below the minor coastal flood thresholds based on readings from the NOAA Tides and Currents Web Site. 1028pm edt Update... Just very little tweaking needed for the overnight into Thu time line...mainly to hrly temps/dewpoints/winds. Based on latest trends and HRRR and 18Z models and a peak at 00Z NAM. Little more tweaking applied to clouds or the lack there-of, especially the evening into the early morning. Could see a cu-fractus for several hrs after daybreak Thu, especially coastal areas given onshore low-level wind field. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mid level ridge will hang on tonight and push westward on Thursday. At the surface high pressure will be in place tonight and basically wash out Thursday. Any convection should remain west of the area tonight but some high resolution guidance and the GFS as well is showing at least some isolated chances for Thursday afternoon and have trended pops up just a tad. Lows Thursday morning should be quite refreshing due to the much lower dewpoints perhaps reaching the upper 60s in areas with good coverage of lower 70s. Highs Thursday afternoon should be 90 to 95 with the higher values inland of course. The lower dewpoints come into play once again and should prevent the need for a heat advisory. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Mid to upper ridge begins to be pushed westward Thursday night as a weak shortwave moves down from the northwest. May see isolated elevated convection from west to east during the late evening into overnight hours. Low temps in the low 70s. Friday is shaping up to be another hot day under mostly clear skies as low level ridge edges in from the west. Highs near 100F and forecasted heat indices in the 105F to 110F range away from the immediate coast on Friday. A pre- frontal trough is expected to move across Friday afternoon ahead of a front Friday night. May see scattered convection in the afternoon given decent instability with sea breeze, trough, and diurnal heating, with lingering subsidence inversion hindering widespread coverage. POPs limited to around 30%. Marginal risk of severe weather in place for Friday, though largely depends on the evolution of potentially ongoing convection to the north Friday morning. Rain chances linger into early Friday night with the frontal passage before ending by Saturday morning. Lows Friday night again in the low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry extended forecast in store for upcoming weekend into next week, and combined with prolonged heating will not help our drought at all. Ensemble guidance does not have any rain for our area until perhaps mid next week. Mid to upper ridge to our west this weekend will shift eastward again early next week, with high pressure at the surface building from the northwest. Brief cooling trend over the weekend, with temps slightly below normal Sunday. Warming trend returns next week as that ridge rebuild, though how quickly temps warm up will depend on how quick the ridge builds eastward and may see return of triple digit temperatures by midweek. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions dominate this 24 hr period. Upper high to slightly retrograde westward-some this period, leaving the SW- NE upper ridge axis just west and north of the I-95 corridor. Could see periodic debris convection clouds in the mid and upper levels push across the terminals later tonight thru Thu. Can not rule out a 2 to 4 hr period of stratus fractus or cumulus fractus in the 1500-2000 ft range at the coastal terminals Thu daytime morning. Have indicated either VCSH or VCTS especially for the inland terminals Thu aftn and the coastal terminals midday due to the resultant wind aka sea breeze. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR thru the period. Except for brief MVFR clouds Fri morning followed by brief MVFR/IFR from isolated or scattered convection Fri aftn and night ahead of a CFP. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Quiet times across the coastal waters through the near term period. An easterly flow of 10-15 knots this afternoon and tonight will become more southeast Thursday as high pressure weakens. Significant seas will be 2-3 feet. Thursday Night through Sunday...Southwest winds pick up Thursday night through Friday evening as a front approaches Friday night. Southwest winds 10-15 kts Thursday night increase to 15-20 kts Friday afternoon and evening with gusts 20-25 kts. As the front moves across the waters Friday night, winds weaken a bit and turn offshore by Saturday morning. Northeast winds 10-15 kts dominate late Saturday through Sunday as surface high pressure builds from the northwest. Seas 2-3 ft Thursday night build to 3-4 ft by late Friday afternoon as SW wind wave builds and mixes with 1-2 ft ESE swell. Seas lower again Friday night into Saturday morning, with 2-3 ft forecasted for Saturday and Sunday, combination of diminishing SW wind wave, building NE wind wave, and continued ESE swell. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH UPDATE...DCH NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...DCH MARINE...SHK/VAO
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 The primary forecast concerns are storm chances returning possibly as early as mid afternoon Thursday, but chances are higher after 7 pm. Heat is also a concern. We may need some heat headlines at some point, especially for Sunday and Monday. Clouds and light precipitation lingered this morning but skies were clearing pretty fast by late morning and early afternoon. At 3 pm skies were sunny in eastern NE and were becoming mostly sunny to partly cloudy in western IA. The pattern at 500 mb this morning featured a closed low across southern Saskatchewan and a high centered over eastern TN. There was a jet streak at 300 mb to the east and southeast of the low which will help it track into Ontario through Thursday. At the same time, the high will expand westward and recenter itself over eastern KS Friday, then continue across NE/IA/KS/MO through at least Saturday. For tonight, expect mainly clear skies and winds under 10 mph. Some patchy fog seems possible for areas along Interstate 80, where the heaviest rain fell the past 24 hours, but the fog signal was not strong enough to include in the forecast at this time. For Thursday, we should see warmer temperatures compared to today, with highs reaching around 90 to 95. A few of the high resolution models indicate isolated development during the mid to late afternoon, but preferred a blend of the 12Z NAM Nest and HRRR. The 12Z NAM Nest showed most of the storms across southeast NE. Recent HRRR runs indicate that development would be mainly after 7 pm and mostly in a fairly narrow band along or south of a line from Norfolk to Blair and Atlantic Iowa. At this point, prefer the HRRR solution and have trended our current forecast toward that. Instability and shear should be enough for at least a few storms that could become severe and produce locally heavy rain. These could linger until around sunrise Friday. As mid level temperatures increase with building heights, expect the atmosphere to become mostly capped. This means a mainly dry period from Friday afternoon through Sunday night. As the mid level ridge shifts more toward AR and southern MO by Monday, a trough approaching from the west will possibly allow slightly cooler mid level temperatures, weak mid level disturbances and increasing monsoonal type moisture from the southwest. Will have POPs mostly 20 to 30 percent from Monday through Wednesday. The heat will be returning and is a concern starting Saturday through Wednesday, but especially Sunday and Monday when we could have some heat index values near 105. Here are the current expected highs in eastern NE and southwest IA the next several days. Saturday - 90s, Sunday - 97 to 102, Monday - 96 to 103, Tuesday and Wednesday - mostly 90s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with light and variable winds becoming light northwest and mainly under 10kts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Miller AVIATION...Kern