Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/16/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1037 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching warm front from the southwest will bring
increased cloudiness and a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms
overnight, as high pressure moves east of Cape Cod. Thursday
afternoon and evening brings another chance for a round of
thunderstorms, particularly for the southern Adirondacks and western
Mohawk Valley, ahead of a slowly progressing cold front which will
pass through the region on Friday. Some of the storms may be strong
to severe. Cooler weather arrives this weekend beneath a deep upper
level low.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.UPDATE as 1037 pm EDT... High pressure is moving slowly
east/southeast of Cape Cod. A warm front remains over western NY
extending southeast into central PA. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms popped up over western NY over the past few hours.
The upstream 00Z KBUF sounding is very unstable with a SBCAPE
of 4375 J/kg and steep mid level lapse rates. Sfc dewpoints are
also in the lower 70s across western NY. Western NY is situated
in the warm sector. Further east into the ALY forecast area, the
air mass is more stable with temps cooling off into the 60s to
lower 70s with dewpoints in the 50s to around 60. In the
north/northwest flow aloft some convective debris clouds from an
old MCS continues to move from N/NW to S/SE across the region.
We have seen some thunderstorms pop up over southeast Ontario
and the northern tip of Lake Ontario the past couple of hours.
Based on the latest 3-km HRRR from 00Z we have slowed down the
timing of isolated-scattered showers/thunderstorms
north/northeast of the warm front over western-central NY and
PA until after midnight. We do think some of the showers and
isold thunderstorms moving towards the western Adirondacks may
move in between 04Z-06Z/Thu. Some weak amounts of MUCAPE are
present. However, the push southward is uncertain from that
batch of showers and isold-sct thunderstorms. It is uncertain if
the convection over western NY moving into PA moves into the ALY
forecast between 08Z-12Z. The best chance may be south and west
of the Capital Region. The 00Z 3-km NAM is further north
spreading some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
The latest 18Z GFS/00Z NAM shows Showalter
Stability indices lowering to 0 to -3C mainly along and west of
the Hudson River Valley overnight and prior to 12Z/THU. We
still kept slight and low chances for thunderstorms due to the
elevated instability implied up to the Hudson River Valley,
Glens Falls/Lake George Region. We kept thunderstorms out of
most of western New England, but later updates may need to add
it in prior to 12Z/Thu if trends change. A milder night is
expected compared to the last few with lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s with a light southeast to east breeze of less than 10
mph. PWATs increase to 1.0-1.5" so some brief locally heavy
downpours are possible with any elevated convection.
Previous near term...
By Thursday morning, the upper level ridge axis will be
positioned over the region which should result in convection
decreasing in coverage and eventually dissipating. Some
differences among the guidance with regards to possible low
stratus and marine influence lingering through the day for much
of the area with the NAM most aggressive with this scenario.
While surface winds will be southerly, the flow aloft becomes
more southwesterly, which should allow for morning low stratus
clouds to mix out. Leaning more towards the latter scenario with
clouds decreasing and warmer temperatures, which follows closer
to the NBM. Given ample sunshine/mixing, highs should reach the
mid 70s to near 80s across the region. Clouds could linger
longer across the higher terrain of western New England, where
temps will be on the cooler side.
During the afternoon, upper level heights lower in response to
a trough approaching from upper Great Lakes. At the surface,
guidance showing a pre-frontal trough likely sparking convection
across northern/central NY during the early/mid afternoon. This
activity should make it into northern/western parts of our area
late afternoon (4-6 PM). Decent instability gradient expected
to set up near the Mohawk Valley and western Adirondacks with up
to 500-1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE from the HREF. Farther south/east,
there looks to be some elevated instability, but surface-based
CAPE looks meager. So the Storm Predication Center outlook for
mainly Marginal to Slight Risk of severe storms north/west of
the Hudson Valley looks good as the deep layer shear (0-6 km
shear of 40-50 kt) supports organized/severe storms. A very
small area of Enhanced Risk was added to northern Herkimer
County this afternoon, so will continue to monitor trends. With
such a sharp gradient of possible severe storms, the risk areas
may need to be shifted east or west depending on where the best
instability ends up setting up.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Convection that develops late Thursday afternoon will likely
linger into the evening as the pre-frontal trough tracks
eastward into New England. However, there should be a
significant degree of weakening as the storms move SE into the
Hudson Valley, Taconics and western New England due to storms
entering a more hostile (stable) environment. Again, some
elevated instability will lead to continued chances for
thunderstorms although they are not expected to be severe. Once
storms move south/east of the Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley the main
threats look to be lightning/brief downpours. Storms should end
by late evening as the pre-frontal trough moves east. It will
be warm/muggy night with no real change in air mass. Low
temperatures and dewpoints will mainly be in the 60s.
On Friday, a deep upper level trough will start to settle in
across the Northeast, with the main core moving from southern
Ontario to southern Quebec. At the surface, a cold front will
move across the region mainly during the morning hours to early
afternoon hours with a few showers. However, the NAM is slower
than the GFS and ECMWF, indicating potential for renewed
development of showers and possible strong thunderstorms later
in the day given ample heating and instability development. Will
continue to monitor trends, but will tend to side with the
consensus faster timing for now, which would limit the threat of
afternoon storms. Temperatures should warm just ahead of the
cold front, with highs in the lower/mid 80s from the Hudson
Valley south/east and cooler 70s farther west where the cold
front will move through earlier. Even across south/east areas,
temperatures should start falling during the late afternoon as
cold advection commences. It will also become breezy Friday
afternoon with good mixing developing as the cold advection
starts. W-NW winds could gust up to 30 mph in favored areas.
A much cooler and less humid air mass will settle in Friday
night as the anomalous upper level trough (forecast 500 mb
height anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV becomes firmly established
across the region. Widely scattered showers are possible north
of Albany as a disturbance moves through the mean trough,
otherwise it should be mainly dry. Lows will be much cooler than
recent nights, ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Changeable conditions expected during the long term period,
with unseasonably cool and blustery conditions to start, and
ending with a return to more summer-like conditions by midweek.
The weekend starts with an anomalously strong mid/upper level
trough across the region Saturday, along with an unseasonable
850-700 mb cold pool (-2 to -3 SD according to the GEFS). This
should create blustery conditions on Saturday, with a mix of
sun/clouds, with clouds more prevalent in the afternoon and
across higher terrain, where some isolated showers/sprinkles may
also occur. Max temps are only expected to reach the 60s for
most valley areas outside of the mid Hudson Valley, where some
lower 70s are possible. Higher elevations are only expected to
reach the mid 50s to lower 60s, coldest across the southern
Adirondacks and southern VT. Brisk winds are expected as well,
and for the high peaks, the combination of wind and cool temps
may produce apparent temps only in the 40s for much of the day.
Chilly for Saturday night, and with clouds and wind decreasing,
temps should fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s for most areas,
with 30s across portions of the southwest Adirondacks. It is
possible that some frost occurs across portions of the southern
Adirondacks if skies clear out.
Fair but still somewhat cool for Sunday, with highs reaching
the lower/mid 70s in valleys, and mainly 60s for higher
elevations. It still may be breezy at times. Chilly for Sunday
night again, with some frost potential across the southern
Adirondacks, with lows mainly in the 40s and lower 50s, with
some 30s for the southern Adirondacks.
Rising heights should allow for dry and warmer conditions for
Monday- early Tuesday. Then by Wednesday, a warm and humid air
mass may expand into the region from the southwest. Some
showers/thunderstorms may develop late Tuesday into Wednesday in
the transition to this air mass, so some slight chance/low
chance PoPs have been indicated.
As for temps, still a bit below normal for Monday and Tuesday
with 75-80 in valleys and 65-70 across higher elevations, and
Mon night lows in the 50s for most areas (except some 40s for SW
Adirondacks). Warmer and more humid by Wednesday, with highs in
the upper 70s to the lower/mid 80s, and early morning lows in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front will approach from the southwest late tonight into
Thursday.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected overnight. However, showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms will approach from the
west/northwest after 08Z/Thu. Have included a PROB30 group for
roughly 08Z-13Z/Thu for -TSRA, although kept mention of just
showers at KPSF. Periods of MVFR conditions will be possible
within any heavier showers/thunderstorms.
A break in the precipitation is expected for mid morning through
at least mid afternoon, with VFR/MVFR Cigs and mainly VFR Vsbys.
Another band of showers/thunderstorms may approach from the
west/northwest after 22Z/Thu, with best chances for any impact
at KALB/KGFL, where PROB30`s are indicated. A period of MVFR/IFR
Vsbys/Cigs will be possible within any heavier
showers/thunderstorms.
Light/variable winds will trend into the south overnight at 5-10
KT (although may be slightly stronger at KALB). On Thursday,
south to southeast winds will increase to 8-15 KT, with gusts of
20-25 KT possible, except possibly slightly stronger (25-30 KT)
at KALB.
There is a chance of low level wind shear late tonight at KGFL
is surface winds remain below 8 KT, as winds around 2000 FT AGL
increase from the south to 30-40 KT.
Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.
Outlook..
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tonight, an approaching warm front brings increased cloudiness
and a chance of showers and thunderstorms as an upper level
ridge axis nudges east over New York state. Thursday afternoon
and evening brings another chance for a round of thunderstorms,
particularly for the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk
Valley, ahead of a slowly progressing cold front which will pass
through the region on Friday. Some of the storms may be severe.
Cooler weather arrives this weekend beneath a deep upper level
trough.
Relative humidity values will increase to around 75 to 95
percent tonight, dropping to minimum values of between 50 and 70
percent on Thursday. Maximum RH values will be around 90 to 100
percent Thursday night.
Winds tonight will be southeast around 10 mph or less, becoming
southerly and increasing to 10 to 15 mph on Thursday. Some
gusts up to 25 mph are possible on Thursday. Winds will remain
southerly Thursday night around 5 to 15 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather will continue through this evening beneath an area
of high pressure. A frontal system will move through the region
Thursday and Friday with showers and a few thunderstorms.
Precipitation amounts will depend on the coverage and location
of activity but some locations with heavy thundershowers could
pick up as much as 0.5-1" of rainfall. Some within bank rises of
rivers, creeks, and streams are possible with this rainfall,
but widespread hydrological issues are not expected thanks in
part to a lack of antecedent precipitation. Drier weather then
returns for the upcoming weekend.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Picard/Wasula
NEAR TERM...JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Evbuoma/KL
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...Main/Picard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1001 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Will expire the wind advisory for far north central ND and the
Turtle Mountain region. Winds are not high enough, and are no
longer expected to reach advisory criteria looking at the track of
the low. Will keep the remainder of headlines as is with this
update for now with still a few gusts in the ballpark.
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Strong west/southwest winds continue across much of the region as
stacked low pressure moves east across the Northern Plains region.
Have had a few winds gusts at or above 50 knots outside of the
warned area, but not widespread or prolonged enough to justify an
upgrade from the advisory to a warning. Thus far northwest ND has
been on the low side of winds, but that should change over the
next few hours as gradient forcing increases as the low moves
farther east...one of the reasons I opted to extend wind
headlines across the west through this evening. Winds overnight
should decrease, but we may need to extend some wind headlines
overnight, most likely an advisory for some areas.
First wave of showers is exiting off to our east, with another
round now moving east-southeast into western ND, spreading
eastward over the next several hours. Some lingering light precip
across our north overnight is then possible.
UPDATE Issued at 554 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
With additional shower activity moving into the region mid
evening, opted to extend wind headlines across western North
Dakota till 1AM CDT, same as when the wind advisory over central
North Dakota expires. RAP and HRRR model soundings show potential
for high wind criteria wind gusts through late evening west,
especially associated with any shower that could mix down
stronger winds to the surface. Will continue to monitor wind gusts
for any possible upgrades central. Have had a few wind high wind
gusts in Morton County, but right now not widespread enough to
justify an upgrade at this point.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
A closed upper level low continues to rotate over the Northern
Plains this afternoon, while an embedded shortwave pushes through
northeast Montana into western North Dakota. Radar imagery shows
showers associated with this wave spreading over northwest North
Dakota, which will continue to move east and south into the
evening. Wind gusts in eastern Montana have ranged from 50 to 65
mph this afternoon, while the surface pressure rise/fall couplet
approaches the North Dakota border.
As isallobaric forcing and greater momentum transfer potential
arrives from the west, a few high wind reports will be likely for
western North Dakota under the High Wind Warning over the next
several hours. There is still an isolated potential for higher
wind gusts further east of the warning under showers, but with the
later arriving winds aloft this potential doesn`t carry enough
certainty to change headlines at this moment.
Tonight, shower activity and winds diminish with the loss of
insolation, but the pressure gradient will still allow for 15-25
kt sustained winds overnight.
Thursday, the pressure gradient shifts east with the exiting low
and high pressure builds from the west. This will allow winds to
diminish from west to east Thursday afternoon before becoming
light late Thursday night. Partly cloudy skies Thursday and
warmer temperatures are forecast with highs in the 70s across the
state. Global guidance is producing low QPF over northern and
eastern North Dakota during the day Thursday, but forecast
soundings show subsidence and very minimal instability, thus the
forecast was kept dry.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
The long term forecast period is highlighted by hot temperatures
this weekend along with returning thunderstorm chances.
Starting Thursday, an upper level ridge will build as the synoptic
pattern becomes amplified and an upstream trough deepens and
closes over the Pacific coast. The upper level ridge axis will
park over the Northern Plains this weekend, which will bring the
hottest temperatures of the year so far. NBM shows high confidence
in widespread highs in the 90s each day, with some locations
possibly reaching 100. Additionally, the ridging pattern will
allow for southerly return flow and the poleward advection of low
level moisture, bringing surface dew points into the 60s. Heat
index values exceeding 100 F will be possible, especially east,
which may necessitate Heat Advisory headlines. Morning low
temperatures should be rather warm, especially east again where
lows in the 70s are forecast on Sunday.
As low level moisture pushes north into the region, initially low
but non-zero chances for convection develop while this moisture
moves in under very steep mid- level lapse rates associated with
the ridge aloft. Given the likelihood of initially significant
capping, surface based convection is not expected, but nocturnal
low-level jet initiated convection will be possible. Global
guidance is picking up on this possibility as slight chances for
precipitation have been introduced to areas of the state Friday
night and Saturday morning. Then on Sunday as the ridge begins to
shift east and southwest flow develops aloft, greater chances for
convection develop and severe weather may be possible given the
moisture and instability in place.
Through the first half of next week, 500mb clusters show good
agreement in the western closed low opening and pushing east,
which should continue precipitation chances in the Northern Plains
during this period. This will also allow the hot weekend
temperatures to exit with a modest cool down by mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Strong winds and MVFR ceilings will highlight the beginning of
the 00Z TAF period.
West to southwest winds will remain strong through this evening
across western and central North Dakota. Sustained winds of
around 30 kts and wind gusts to around 50 kts expected,
especially at KXWA-KDIK. Locally higher wind gusts remain
possible this evening as scattered to numerous showers move east
across the local area. Low VFR to MVFR cigs will remain across
the area overnight, improving by Thursday afternoon. Winds will
also subside overnight but will remain breezy through the period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday for NDZ001-
002-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>047-050.
High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday for
NDZ009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...AE
AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
802 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Satellite shows no clouds across the forecast area this
afternoon. Temperatures will continue to climb a bit more over
the next couple of hours, with temperatures already in the mid 80s
for the metro. Winds are relatively light for the urban corridor
but are a bit more gusty in the high country. Expect little change
overnight with light winds and lows falling back into the low
50s.
Tomorrow will see a ridge begin to build back into the area and
we`ll see similar conditions as today. Mid-level temperatures are
a few degrees warmer so highs should make it back into the low to
mid 90s, with low 100s possible for the far eastern plains. There
is a very slight chance of a late afternoon/early evening storm
for Denver into the I-76 corridor as low-level moisture advection
brings better dew points to the plains. However, moisture depth
isn`t particularly deep and there is still some uncertainty
regarding how quickly the surface moistens tomorrow afternoon.
Otherwise, dry conditions are likely over the high country like
today, with elevated fire weather conditions continuing. See the
Fire section below for additional details.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022
A pattern change upcoming for later this week and into
the weekend. High pressure ridge aloft will be building over the
central plains while a strong low pressure area deepens over the
Pacific Northwest. This will result will put Colorado under a
moderate southwest flow pattern and will begin to draw subtropical
moisture into Colorado from late Friday and through the the weekend.
Initially, on Friday, moisture will be confined mainly to the
mountains as the ridge aloft is just barely east of Colorado. There
could be a few storms/showers that drift over the urban corridor
Friday evening. Conditions will be hot over the plains on Friday as
700mb temperatures climb to around +17c. This will result in
readings in the mid to upper 90s and possibly 100 degrees in a few
locales over the plains. The record for Denver is 100 on Friday so
may be a few degrees short. In addition, could be seeing an
increasing in hazy, smoky conditions on Friday from fires from New
Mexico and Arizona. Latest HRRR smoke guidance showing an increase
in smoke as early as Thursday night and increasing even more on
Friday.
Overall trend through the weekend is for continued good chances for
showers and thunderstorms in the mountains and a slight eastward
progression of potential storms on the plains on Sunday and
especially on Monday. Precipitable water values increase to just
over an inch on the plains so heavy rain and gusty winds will be
the main impacts.
The west coast trof ejects out into the northern Rockies early next
week as main plume of moisture shifts especially by Tuesday and
Wednesday. There will also be a slow cooling trend from late weekend
through early next week with increasing cloud cover.
There will still be near critical fire weather conditions on the
plains on Friday and Saturday but recent green-up will keep
overall fire.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 551 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022
VFR through the TAF period. Winds are expected to remain light.
Drainage winds will gradually establish later this evening with
E/SE winds 5-9 kts until 22z, then 10-15 kts after 22z. No cloud
cover or precipitation is expected through 18z Thursday. Some mid
level cloudiness developing after 21z Thursday. High based
shower or tstm could start to impact the terminals after 22z, so
introduced vcsh in the terminals around that time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 800 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022
The Red Flag Warning for South Park was allowed to expire at 7
PM. Elevated fire weather conditions across the higher elevations
of the forecast area on Thursday, especially over South Park.
Gradual moisture advection will lead to a slight increase in
daytime humidities, but will still be at or below 15% across much
of the area. Winds aloft are also forecast to be weaker, and only
a few gusts above 30 mph are expected. Though FZ214 will be close
to reaching criteria, not enough confidence in the setup to
justify any highlights for tomorrow.
There will be elevated fire danger across the plains for Friday
and the weekend with dry and breezy conditions. However, green-up
continues which will keep the overall threat of fires across the
plains on the lower side, so no watches/warnings will be issued.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022
There will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms in
the mountains from Friday afternoon through the weekend with the
threat for heavy rain with the showers and storms on the fire burn
scars.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hiris/Holdren
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Cooper
FIRE WEATHER...Entrekin/Cooper
HYDROLOGY...Entrekin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1109 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms after expected to end the
work-week before gorgeous weather abounds for the weekend.
Thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening will likely be
severe with damaging wind gusts, hail, and possibly a few
tornadoes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
02Z surface analysis places a stationary front over the
Allegheny Plateau. An anomalous upper level ridge has
successfully suppressed convection so far this evening. However,
the bulk of latest guidance indicates a weak shortwave rounding
the crest of the ridge will initiate thunderstorms late this
evening over northwest Pa.
Many of the latest convection-allowing models, including the
HRRR, develop this cluster of storms into a MCS, which tracks
southward through the eastern half of Pa late tonight. Plenty of
instability and sufficient deep layer shear on the order of
30-40kts support this possible scenario. The primary threat of
severe wx should be along and just east of the stationary front,
or roughly over the western half of the forecast area. Further
east, model soundings indicate weaker and mostly elevated
instability. Increasing low level shear and low LCLs indicate a
brief tornado over north central Pa can`t be ruled out late this
evening. However, the primary threat will be damaging straight
line wind gusts. Although ensemble mean qpf is between 0.1 and
0.5 inches, will have to watch for isolated flash flooding
across the north central mountains, where the latest HRRR and
earlier HREF both support the potential of spot amounts of 3+
inches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
There should be a lull in convective activity Thursday morning
into early afternoon, then falling heights ahead of approaching
cold front combined with heating of moist/unstable airmass
should result in another round of potentially severe
thunderstorms during the PM hours.
The consensus among convection-allowing models indicates early
afternoon initial storm development over northwest Pa will
rapidly grow upscale under the influence of strong forcing ahead
of upstream shortwave. High instability, combined with strong
mid level winds/deep layer shear, support a good chance of
damaging wind gusts accompanying the developing line of
convection. The greatest risk appears to be over the western
half of the forecast area, along and west of stationary front.
Although damaging wind gusts are the primary threat, large hail
is also quite possible over the central and western counties,
where capes in excess of 2000 J/kg are progged. Enhanced low
level shear in the vicinity of the front could also potentially
result in an isolated tornado over the western half of the
forecast area. High pwats and instability should certainly
support some torrential downpours. However, the anticipated
progressive motion of the convection may limit the threat of
flash flooding. The wettest members of the HREF currently cap
spot amounts in the 2-3 inch range, with most locations in the
0.25 to 0.75 range Thursday PM.
Current guidance indicates the mid level shortwave and
associated band of strong storms will exit the southeast part
of the forecast area by late Thursday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There is a slight chance of a shower in spots early Friday in
association with a trailing secondary cold front and trough axis,
but larger scale subsidence and drier air moving in will keep
most locales dry.
Beyond that, a minimal amount of spread among medium range
guidance is supporting a high confidence forecast of dry and
cool weather for the weekend, as high pressure and associated
low-pwat airmass builds southeast across the area.
Remarkably cold air for mid June looks to advect southeast into
northeast PA at the 850 mb level with values of 4-7C. This is a
bit warmer than previous guidance, but still expect highs 5-10
degrees below average this weekend, despite a good deal of
sunshine. Sunday night could be the chilliest night of the
stretch with high pressure over the region providing the most
favorable conditions for radiational cooling.
Warmer and more humid conditions should return by early next
week, as surface high pressure passes southeast of PA and a
warm front approaches from the midwest. Ensemble plumes support
chance PoPs Monday and Tuesday, focused mainly during max
heating of the afternoon and early evening.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not a lot of chance as of late evening, low clouds out
of AOO and JST now. Still low clouds at UNV. Minor changes made
to the TAFS as of late evening.
Earlier discussion below.
For the 00Z TAFS, held onto timing of lower clouds and fog
tonight and early Thursday. Lower clouds at times now across
the far west, where dewpoints have come up some since early
this morning. Still the drier air to the east not all that
far away yet.
Anyway, Winds kicked up at IPT during the last hour, typical of
this time of day.
Timing of showers and storms for Thursday looks to be from
west to east later in the afternoon into the evening hours.
Outlook...
Fri...Improving conditions.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Lower CIGS possible across the north and
west early.
Sun...VFR.
Mon...Mainly dry, but a chance of a shower late across the
west.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Gutierrez
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Gutierrez
LONG TERM...Guseman/Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
639 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 442 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Rain and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening before a
drier pattern into the weekend. Very windy tomorrow and a return of
very hot temperatures Sunday-Monday.
An upper level low continues to spin over the Canadian Plains,
dragging warm moist air up the Mississippi and along a stationary
boundary stretched from Iowa to Lake Superior, accompanied by a
upper level jet. Closer to the frontal boundary in NW WI, messy
embedded thunderstorms continue to scream northeast along mean winds
of 50-60 knots. While these storms have plentiful bulk shear to work
with, they are somewhat removed to the best instability and any
surface-based potential and appear to be mostly sub-severe at this
point. Precipitation in NE MN is mostly rain with some embedded
rumbles of thunder. Some of the radar returns over north central
Minnesota are likely struggling to materialize at the ground thanks
to low level dry air apparent in RAP soundings and current observed
dewpoint depressions. Further west in NW MN, a line of storms has
fired along a surface boundary visible in surface observations and
radar. These storms have gone up in an isolated pocket of marginal
shear and instability but could potentially pose a sub to near
severe downburst wind threat with around 1000 J/kg of DCAPE, steep
mid level lapse rates thanks to some cooler air, and dry mid levels.
Any severe precipitation should be out of the CWA by mid evening.
Tomorrow, a tighter pressure gradient will combine with steep low
level lapse rates to pick up winds out of the west-southwest as
early as daybreak. Ensembles put winds in the max percentiles,
especially south of Highway 2. The Euro ENS EFI is over 0.8 at
multiple points across the CWA for max wind gusts, indicating a
potentially significant wind event. Model soundings indicate steep
low level lapse rates which could be able to transport down 850mb
winds of 35-45 knots to the surface. Have brought wind gusts up to
34-37 knots in places but have held off on a Wind Advisory for now.
One may be needed, particularly along the North Shore, through the
Twin Ports, and across NW WI.
Further into the extended forecast the big story is the signal for
the return of heat to the Northland. Temperatures will remain
slightly above normal through Friday but a large ridge across the
central CONUS looks to usher back in an extremely warm airmass.
With stronger southwest winds, communities along the lakeshore may
not benefit from as much natural Lake Superior air conditioning this
time. Hottest days appear to be Sunday-Monday with dew points in the
mid to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Storms are largely clearing out of NW WI this evening with a few
showers lingering in northern MN. There is also a line of storms 70
miles to the west of INL but radar trends show this line losing
strength rapidly. If they do manage to hold together it will cross INL
a little after 01Z. INL will still have several more chances for
rain later tonight and through tomorrow with MVFR ceilings.
Additionally, LLWS will impact several terminals tonight. Tomorrow,
a strong west wind will impact all terminals with gusts in excess of
30kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 442 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Fairly calm conditions today will begin to change early Thursday
morning and through the day. Strong and gusty winds from the west-
southwest will build to gust around 30 knots in the afternoon. Some
gale force gusts may be possible through the Wisconsin nearshore
waters, especially closer to shore. This will force waves of 3-5
feet along the South Shore and through the Apostle Islands. With a
westerly wind direction, mariners along the cliff-line from Port
Wing to Sand Island should use extreme caution as waves can double
in size and become erratic and unpredictable near caves and cliffs.
A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect tomorrow morning.
Additionally, marine fog will likely continue overnight. A Marine
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 7AM Thursday for all of
Western Lake Superior. Visibilities should begin to improve with
decreasing dewpoints through the day tomorrow. Winds turn northerly
and calm down overnight into Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 57 74 55 76 / 10 10 0 0
INL 56 73 51 74 / 40 40 0 0
BRD 60 76 55 81 / 10 0 0 0
HYR 55 77 53 78 / 10 10 0 0
ASX 57 77 55 75 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ021.
LS...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-140>148-
150.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-
142>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ140-
141.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Levens
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1202 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022
.AVIATION...
The atmosphere is well capped with convective inhibition between 4.0
and 8.0 kft. There has been no forward propagating cold pool
generated with the thunderstorm complex. Therefore, confidence
remains high that no widespread shower or thunderstorm activity will
track into Southeast Michigan. Decaying convection will gradually
move eastward this evening accompanied by a wind shift. This
enhanced mesoscale feature will push through the area roughly 7-10Z.
Included a tempo for some isolated thunder at MBS with tempo showers
at FNT. For the Detroit terminals, just included a wind shift to the
northwest and some VCSH. A very narrow axis of modestly deeper
moisture will anticyclonically pivot through Southeast Michigan
between 09-15Z. Short residence time of moisture with nocturnal
minimum in diabatic heating limits the precipitation potential
Thursday. Models support very dry air with active subsidence between
2.5 and 10.0 kft agl Thursday. Dry conditions with SKC.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for thunderstorm activity between 07-10Z tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022
DISCUSSION...
Dangerously hot and humid conditions are largely on track today with
the Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remaining in effect
into tonight. A very warm start to the day as temperatures around 8
am were in the low to mid 70s. The southwest winds kicked this
morning and finally ushered in the low 70s dewpoints. The daytime
heating and depth of mixing has resulted in some gusts of 15-20 mph
while the limited cloud cover has brought afternoons highs well into
the 90s as expected. Current heat indices at press time have climbed
to or above 100 degree mark for several locations across southeast
Michigan. Daily record high temperatures also being challenged today
with FNT and MBS having currently tied the record as of 1915Z.
Minimal cumulus have developed so far this afternoon with capping
likely preventing any precipitation chances through this evening.
The upper ridge axis sliding to the east will be followed by
increasing height falls associated with closed mid/upper low pressure
system across central Canada tonight. This will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms late tonight with the inbound surface
trough and cold front. Arrival of this activity will be after
midnight tonight with bulk of activity occuring between 1 am and 8
am. There remains some question as to how well this activity will
hold together and its intensity after crossing Lake Michigan and into
northern Lower and central Michigan. A weakening trend with the
complex gusting out before it reaches the Tri-Cities appears like the
more likely scenario, especially given the warm mid levels that will
help cap activity. However, the RAP for tonight still offers a
corridor of instability with MUCAPE of over 2000 J/kg. The steep mid
level lapse rates up to 7 C/km and 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-50 kts
will also be supportive of thunderstorm activity if the complex can
maintain some organization as it arrives. Current thinking is there
will be a decent shot at some scattered showers and thunderstorms
moving into the CWA, especially north of I-69 corridor of southeast
Michigan, but with a lower severe potential. A Marginal Risk is in
place northwest of a line from just north of Flint to Bad Axe where
an isolated strong to severe storm is possible.
Passage of the front will begin to shove the 70s dewpoints out of
southeast Michigan throughout the morning and early afternoon
Thursday with dewpoints plummeting into the 50s by peak heating. The
warmer airmass, however, will still be lingering with 925 mb
temperatures still in the low to mid 20C range. This will be
supportive of a another day with above normal temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s. The lack of humidity will keep max heat
indices well below 100.
Base of the upper trough with the mid level low over the Hudson Bay
will send some shortwave energy over Michigan Friday and then into
the weekend as it drifts into eastern Canada. Surface high pressure
moving in from the west and drier northwesterly flow should keep
conditions dry into the weekend. A stronger surge of cooler air will
move in over the weekend as well bringing daytime highs back down
into the 70s for the weekend. There will be some increasing moisture
on Sunday that warrants a slight chance PoPs, but any coverage looks
limited with the presence of the high pressure still lingering over
the region.
Heat and humidity make a return as an amplified upper trough across
the plains begins to work eastward over the region early next week.
Temperatures at 850 mb and 925 mb climb above 20C again for Tuesday
and will support daytime highs into the mid/upper 90s and make a run
at daily record highs. Current forecast dewpoints are to around 70
degrees, which would push heat indices near 100 again.
MARINE...
Hot and humid conditions persist through the afternoon as ridging
aloft supports clear skies and light southwest flow this afternoon
and evening. A surface cold front then tracks through the region
late tonight into early tomorrow morning which will be the focus for
shower and thunderstorm activity. An isolated strong to severe storm
cannot be ruled out across the northern half of Lake Huron and
Saginaw Bay. A brief period of gusty winds will be possible as the
front pushes through. More favorable wind field arrives tomorrow
afternoon across Lake Huron, prompting Small Craft Advisories for
the Lake Huron nearshore zones tomorrow afternoon and evening. While
low level thermal profiles remain stable over the open waters, gusty
winds around 25 knots will be possible close to the shoreline within
westerly offshore flow. Gusts diminish overnight Thursday before
picking up again on Friday and Saturday as winds become more
northwesterly. High pressure builds in late this weekend resulting
in calmer marine conditions.
CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for Wednesday June 15th:
Detroit 95 (set in 1988)
Flint 93 (set in 1988)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 93 (set in 1994)
Here are the record high tempertaures for Tuesday June 21st:
Detroit 96 (set in 1933)
Flint 98 (set in 1923)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 95 (set in 1988)
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Heat Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ068>070-
075-076-082-083.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this
evening for LHZ421-422-441>443.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....99
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......MV
CLIMATE......SF
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
801 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 744 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022
The overall severe threat for tonight appears to be decreasing as
the better forcing appears to be located to the southeast of the
area. However, moisture return is occurring east of KGLD as a
retreating dryline is evident on radar and SPC Mesoanalysis. Due
to this moisture return a slowly northward propagating frontal
boundary, the potential does exist for a isolated or widely
scattered thunderstorms after 2am MT east of Kansas Highway 25.
CAMS have been backing off on initiation, but usually in weak
forcing events they do have a hard time picking up on initation.
Due to this will maintain slight chance pops. If a storm were to
occur hail up to quarter size would be possible as RAP soundings
indicate 2000-2500 j/kg of MUCAPE across Gove/Graham counties near
12Z. Wind shear will be fairly weak around 25 knots may limit
storm organization and potentially any hail threat.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Tonight...a frontal boundary currently south of the area this
afternoon is forecast to lift north into the area after midnight.
There is a considerable amount of instability around 2km with
limited inhibition. As a result, will maintain (for now) slight
chance pops for thunderstorms generally in the vicinity of I-70 plus
a row of counties either side in western Kansas. There is a threat
for severe thunderstorms with large hail being the primary hazard.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 50s to around 60.
Thursday-Thursday night...monsoonal type moisture arrives in the
east-southern zones Thursday afternoon supporting previous forecast
of slight chance pops. Could see an isolated thunderstorm very early
in the evening otherwise it will be dry. High temperatures rise into
the lower 90s to 102 degrees (hottest in Logan and Gove counties.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 60s to around 70.
Friday-Friday night...a 595dam high pressure center is expected to
reside over southern/southeast Kansas during the day, expanding its
coverage during the night. The pressure gradient between this high
and the deep low pressure system over the west coast of the country
will increase, supporting breezy to windy southerly winds. High
temperatures are expected to range from the middle 90s to around 100
degrees in far eastern Colorado to the upper 90s to around 104
degrees elsewhere. Low temperatures are expected to be in the middle
60s to lower 70s.
Saturday...little change in the upper level pattern. High
temperatures look very similar to Friday with middle 90s to 104
degrees with breezy to windy southerly winds.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022
For the extended period, the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF do show
the upper ridge over the Plains region sliding slowly eastward
through the forecast. This will keep the entire region under
southwest flow aloft during this time.
Down to the surface, lee-side trough coming off the Front Range late
in the weekend, will meander over west/central Kansas as a front.
Chances for rw/trw will result, aided in part by several shortwaves
working along the western side of the ridge. Increased areal
coverage of precip does occur from Monday into Wednesday, as low
level moisture increases as the front sets up in Kansas.
With the southwest flow aloft, expecting above normal temperatures
through much of the forecast, especially for daytime highs east of
the Colorado border. RH readings during the day will range in the
mid and upper teens Sun-Mon, but increase through midweek next week
into the 20s as remnant surface moisture/rain chances increase.
Also with the rain and heat expected, the region will see several
low level jets around 850mb pass through the region, allowing for
the potential for windy conditions to ensue. If enough mixing
occurs, steady 20-30 mph possible with gusts at times to 40 mph in
some locales. These conditions could occur during the daytime and
evening hours.
For temps, daytime highs to end off the upcoming weekend will have a
range from the upper 90s to low to mid 100s on Sunday, with warmest
areas east. Going into Monday, slightly cooler in northeast Colorado
in the mid to upper 90s with the remainder of the cwa the same as
Sunday. By Tuesday, highs will range from the upper 80s west to
around 100F east. On Wednesday, mid 90s to around 100F.
Lows in the extended will have a range for Sat-Sun nights in the mid
60s west to mid 70s east. For next Mon-Tue-Wed nights, upper 50s
west to around 70F east.
With the expected heat in the extended period, heat index values
come into play for the daytime heating timeframe. With low RH
readings during the afternoon/evening hours, expecting heat indices
to remain at or below forecasted highs. Overnight though, heat
advisories may be needed as the value of 75 degrees for nighttime
heat index versus 105 or higher during the day, might be reached.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 454 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022
VFR conditions are expected throughout the entire period for each
site. Winds will be just under 10 knots at the start of the
period, but will become light and variable overnight. A very
conditional chance for some storms does exist after 09Z for KGLD
but will refrain from including in TAFS until confidence
increases in the formation. Winds will then turn easterly tomorrow
at around 10-12 knots.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1035 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Outflow boundary has raced well out ahead of convection as the
storms moved across Lake Michigan. Gusty 40 to 45 mph winds can be
expected with this gust front as it moves east across areas from
Baldwin to Fremont through 11 PM. The severe weather threat
appears to be low for now but we will have to watch for any storms
initiated along the outflow boundary and also monitor for
excessive rainfall overnight if any training of storms occurs, as
is currently happening across southern Wisconsin.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022
--Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tonight--
All eyes this evening will be on the line of convection which
evolves/congeals over Wisconsin then makes a run at wrn Lwr MI later
this evening. Even though Lk MI water temps are cold there`s plenty
of instability rooted just above the stable marine layer to sustain
a line of storms as it crosses the lake.
Once the storms get here, SBCapes over Lwr MI stay elevated at
1500-2500 j/kg much of the night in very warm/moist environment,
allowing at least scattered convection to continue well into the
overnight. Also a low level jet of 40 kts will be present along
with around 30-35 kts of deep layer shear per RAP guidance.
Expectation is for wind gusts of 30-50 kts to impact the Lk MI
waters and coastal counties north of Holland after 9 PM or so -
either with the arrival of outflow boundary or by the line of
storms itself. Soundings show Dcapes around 1000 j/kg over Lwr MI
ahead of the front lingering tonight due to nearly dry adiabatic
lapse rates below the cloud layer. This is supportive of a gusty
wind threat persisting even as the storms continue inland into the
overnight hours. Storms exiting/weakening by 4-5 am.
--Quite Breezy, Less Humid Thursday--
Still rather warm behind the cold front on Thursday with highs
well into the 80s, but arrival of dew points in the 50s from the
west will usher in less oppressive conditions. Once deeper mixing
develops in the afternoon and 40-45kt westerly low level jet
arrives within base of upper trough digging into the nrn
GrtLks region, expect some healthy gusts of 30 to 40 mph in the
afternoon. Strongest wind gusts are expected to be north of I-96
and could even approach wind advisory criteria near/north of Hwy
U.S. 10.
--Cool and Comfortable Weekend--
A large cool/dry Canadian sfc high impacts the region Friday
through Sunday, keeping humidity in check and providing highs in
the mid to upper 70s. Even some chilly overnight low temps
expected, especially Friday night, when lows could dip into the
40s in some spots. The next chance of convection commences on
Sunday as warm front begins to shift back in our direction,
although confidence low as to coverage/timing of that risk.
--Heat and Humidity Returns Next Week--
Strong ensemble support for at least a few days of temps back up
near 90 next Monday through Wednesday, although frontal boundary
progged to slip south through the area Wed night may bring a
round of storms followed by cooler temps/lower humidities.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022
VFR conditions will continue this evening then thunderstorms will
move through Lower Michigan overnight with areas of MVFR and
brief IFR conditions in heavy rain and the potential for hail and
winds in excess of 40 knots.
There will also be LLWS this evening. Surface winds will gust over
20 knots at times and again on Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Waves so far at Ludington have stayed below 3 feet, but southerly
flow will be ramping up this evening. We are extending the
BHS/SCA north of Grand Haven into Thursday based on the strong
west-southwest winds which arrive behind the front. High pressure
follows for Friday-Saturday, but some suggestion of a strong
north flow event for Saturday in the west MI nearshore in
advancing sfc high pattern.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022
With the record set yesterday at KMKG, we took a look at all of the
max temperature and warmest low temperatures for today for each
site. The records are below:
Record High Temperature Record Warmest Low Temperature
Grand Rapids: 97 - 1894 76 - 1994
Muskegon: 90 - 1987, 1954 74 - 1994
Lansing: 92 - 1994, 1988 76 - 1981
Kalamazoo: 96 - 1987 75 - 1994
Battle Creek: 95 - 1897 76 - 1981
Jackson: 92 - 1994, 1988 76 - 1981
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late Thursday night for MIZ037-
043-050.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LMZ847>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ostuno
DISCUSSION...Meade
AVIATION...Ostuno
CLIMATE...NJJ
MARINE...Meade
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1105 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend down from the north tonight thru Thu
with temperatures remaining above normal. Temperatures will be
hotter Fri ahead of an approaching cold front. Isolated to
scattered convection possible ahead of the cold frontal passage
late Fri. Relatively cooler and drier weather to follow for the
weekend as high pressure prevails. Dry weather with a warming
trend is expected early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
1100pm edt Update...
Canceled the coastal flood advisory for the beaches originally
scheduled to expire at midnight. Tide levels at Johnny Mercer
and Springmaid Piers have dropped below the minor coastal flood
thresholds based on readings from the NOAA Tides and Currents
Web Site.
1028pm edt Update...
Just very little tweaking needed for the overnight into Thu time
line...mainly to hrly temps/dewpoints/winds. Based on latest
trends and HRRR and 18Z models and a peak at 00Z NAM. Little
more tweaking applied to clouds or the lack there-of, especially
the evening into the early morning. Could see a cu-fractus for
several hrs after daybreak Thu, especially coastal areas given
onshore low-level wind field.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level ridge will hang on tonight and push westward on
Thursday. At the surface high pressure will be in place tonight
and basically wash out Thursday. Any convection should remain
west of the area tonight but some high resolution guidance and
the GFS as well is showing at least some isolated chances for
Thursday afternoon and have trended pops up just a tad. Lows
Thursday morning should be quite refreshing due to the much
lower dewpoints perhaps reaching the upper 60s in areas with
good coverage of lower 70s. Highs Thursday afternoon should be
90 to 95 with the higher values inland of course. The lower
dewpoints come into play once again and should prevent the need
for a heat advisory.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mid to upper ridge begins to be pushed westward Thursday night
as a weak shortwave moves down from the northwest. May see
isolated elevated convection from west to east during the late
evening into overnight hours. Low temps in the low 70s. Friday
is shaping up to be another hot day under mostly clear skies as
low level ridge edges in from the west. Highs near 100F and
forecasted heat indices in the 105F to 110F range away from the
immediate coast on Friday. A pre- frontal trough is expected to
move across Friday afternoon ahead of a front Friday night. May
see scattered convection in the afternoon given decent
instability with sea breeze, trough, and diurnal heating, with
lingering subsidence inversion hindering widespread coverage.
POPs limited to around 30%. Marginal risk of severe weather in
place for Friday, though largely depends on the evolution of
potentially ongoing convection to the north Friday morning. Rain
chances linger into early Friday night with the frontal passage
before ending by Saturday morning. Lows Friday night again in
the low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry extended forecast in store for upcoming weekend into next
week, and combined with prolonged heating will not help our
drought at all. Ensemble guidance does not have any rain for our
area until perhaps mid next week. Mid to upper ridge to our
west this weekend will shift eastward again early next week,
with high pressure at the surface building from the northwest.
Brief cooling trend over the weekend, with temps slightly below
normal Sunday. Warming trend returns next week as that ridge
rebuild, though how quickly temps warm up will depend on how
quick the ridge builds eastward and may see return of triple
digit temperatures by midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions dominate this 24 hr period. Upper high to
slightly retrograde westward-some this period, leaving the SW-
NE upper ridge axis just west and north of the I-95 corridor.
Could see periodic debris convection clouds in the mid and
upper levels push across the terminals later tonight thru Thu.
Can not rule out a 2 to 4 hr period of stratus fractus or
cumulus fractus in the 1500-2000 ft range at the coastal
terminals Thu daytime morning. Have indicated either VCSH or
VCTS especially for the inland terminals Thu aftn and the
coastal terminals midday due to the resultant wind aka sea
breeze.
Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR thru the period. Except for brief
MVFR clouds Fri morning followed by brief MVFR/IFR from isolated
or scattered convection Fri aftn and night ahead of a CFP.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Thursday...Quiet times across the coastal waters
through the near term period. An easterly flow of 10-15 knots
this afternoon and tonight will become more southeast Thursday
as high pressure weakens. Significant seas will be 2-3 feet.
Thursday Night through Sunday...Southwest winds pick up
Thursday night through Friday evening as a front approaches
Friday night. Southwest winds 10-15 kts Thursday night increase
to 15-20 kts Friday afternoon and evening with gusts 20-25 kts.
As the front moves across the waters Friday night, winds weaken
a bit and turn offshore by Saturday morning. Northeast winds
10-15 kts dominate late Saturday through Sunday as surface high
pressure builds from the northwest. Seas 2-3 ft Thursday night
build to 3-4 ft by late Friday afternoon as SW wind wave builds
and mixes with 1-2 ft ESE swell. Seas lower again Friday night
into Saturday morning, with 2-3 ft forecasted for Saturday and
Sunday, combination of diminishing SW wind wave, building NE
wind wave, and continued ESE swell.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/VAO
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
The primary forecast concerns are storm chances returning
possibly as early as mid afternoon Thursday, but chances are
higher after 7 pm. Heat is also a concern. We may need some heat
headlines at some point, especially for Sunday and Monday.
Clouds and light precipitation lingered this morning but skies were
clearing pretty fast by late morning and early afternoon. At 3 pm
skies were sunny in eastern NE and were becoming mostly sunny to
partly cloudy in western IA.
The pattern at 500 mb this morning featured a closed low across
southern Saskatchewan and a high centered over eastern TN. There was
a jet streak at 300 mb to the east and southeast of the low which
will help it track into Ontario through Thursday. At the same time,
the high will expand westward and recenter itself over eastern KS
Friday, then continue across NE/IA/KS/MO through at least Saturday.
For tonight, expect mainly clear skies and winds under 10 mph. Some
patchy fog seems possible for areas along Interstate 80, where the
heaviest rain fell the past 24 hours, but the fog signal was not
strong enough to include in the forecast at this time.
For Thursday,
we should see warmer temperatures compared to today, with highs
reaching around 90 to 95. A few of the high resolution models
indicate isolated development during the mid to late afternoon, but
preferred a blend of the 12Z NAM Nest and HRRR. The 12Z NAM Nest
showed most of the storms across southeast NE. Recent HRRR runs
indicate that development would be mainly after 7 pm and mostly in a
fairly narrow band along or south of a line from Norfolk to Blair
and Atlantic Iowa. At this point, prefer the HRRR solution and have
trended our current forecast toward that. Instability and shear
should be enough for at least a few storms that could become severe
and produce locally heavy rain. These could linger until around
sunrise Friday.
As mid level temperatures increase with building heights, expect the
atmosphere to become mostly capped. This means a mainly dry period
from Friday afternoon through Sunday night. As the mid level ridge
shifts more toward AR and southern MO by Monday, a trough approaching
from the west will possibly allow slightly cooler mid level
temperatures, weak mid level disturbances and increasing monsoonal
type moisture from the southwest. Will have POPs mostly 20 to 30
percent from Monday through Wednesday.
The heat will be returning and is a concern starting Saturday
through Wednesday, but especially Sunday and Monday when we could
have some heat index values near 105.
Here are the current expected highs in eastern NE and southwest IA
the next several days. Saturday - 90s, Sunday - 97 to 102, Monday -
96 to 103, Tuesday and Wednesday - mostly 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with light and
variable winds becoming light northwest and mainly under 10kts.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Miller
AVIATION...Kern