Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/15/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1005 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Key Messages:
- Multiple rounds of storms tonight-Wednesday, with a more
significant severe weather event looking increasingly likely
Wednesday afternoon/early evening
- Dry weather returns Thursday into the weekend
- More hot weather Sunday into early next week
Tonight-Wednesday night...
An active period of weather remains likely heading through tonight
and especially Wednesday with multiple rounds of storms and
perhaps one more hot day on Wednesday for parts of the area.
For tonight, there is fairly good consensus among high res models
in showers/storms developing by late evening as a boundary works
into the area and mid-level temps cool slightly. Despite boundary
layer stabilization and a shrinking surface-based CAPE pool,
substantial elevated instability and flow aloft could support a
few strong/severe storms with large hail/heavy rain the main
threat and some risk for strong winds.
There is loose agreement in another area of showers/storms
spreading northeast late tonight into Wednesday morning near/north
of the surface boundary in association with a weak upper wave/warm
advection. Heavy rain, hail, and perhaps strong winds will be
possible with these storms.
The likely higher impact event is slated for tomorrow
afternoon/early evening as a stronger shortwave trough approaches
with favorable afternoon timing. Some uncertainty remains in how
morning storms will evolve with potential impacts on
destabilization. This could have impacts for afternoon
development, especially for western areas, although the 14.12Z
HREF shows an increasing signal via UH tracks for severe storms
during the afternoon into western/central WI. Current thinking is
that strong destabilization will occur over at least the southeast
half of the area with the RAP showing MLCAPE in excess of 3000
J/kg by afternoon. A strengthening low-level jet will aid in
increasing low-level shear with enlarged clock-wise turning
hodographs in the warm sector ahead of the front by afternoon.
40-50 kts of 0-3 km bulk shear is expected, sufficient for
supercells, although shear drops off above around 6 km. Despite
some weakness in mid-level lapse rates, large deep CAPE profiles
would suggest potential for large to very large hail. Tornadoes
are also possible, with some chance for a strong tornado,
particularly if a weak surface low with backed low-level flow develops
as indicated by some models, enhancing low-level shear. This
currently seems most likely across parts of central Wisconsin. A
more organized wind threat could develop if upscale growth with a
well-defined cold pool occurs across the area. See the hydro
section below for more on the heavy rain potential, but the
airmass will remain ripe for high rain rates and localized higher
rainfall amounts. The cold front will move through by early to mid
evening with storms quickly exiting. Details will be fine-tuned
through the overnight/morning as convective evolution becomes more
clear.
While more cloud cover/convection should keep most areas several
degrees cooler than today, at least southeastern counties may see
temps climb into the 90s with heat indices nearing 100 on
Wednesday.
Thursday-Tuesday...
A drier, more seasonable airmass will settle across the area late
this week into the weekend as surface high pressure drifts east.
Heading later into the weekend and early next week, mid/upper
level ridging will build eastward from the plains into the Upper
Midwest, setting the stage for a return of heat/humidity. Highs
back into the 90s are possible during the Sunday-Tuesday time with
NAEFS 850 mb temp standard anomalies already in the +2-3 range on
Monday, highlighting the potential for an anomalously warm
airmass, even by June standards. With the ridge building across
the area, the late week/weekend looks to be mostly dry. However, a
few showers or storms could not be completely ruled out with any
low amplitude shortwave topping the ridge. There is some
indication that the ridge could flatten by early next week, aiding
in increased convective potential, but substantial uncertainty
exists in these details.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
A few rounds of showers and storms tonight through Wed. A few could
be strong, potentially severe, with a greater threat for severe
storms Wed afternoon. Wind, hail and vsby impacts all likely for Wed
afternoon. Timing the rounds in is tricky and expect some refinement
as the various forcers (shortwaves, sfc cold front, overnight
convection boundaries, etc) play out. For now, will lean heavily on
the CAMS models to time the higher threat/impact times for shra/ts.
CIGS: trends favor mostly bkn VFR into Wed morning. Expect some
lowering with the storms associated with cold front for Wed
afternoon, dipping into MVFR. Should clear out Wed evening with
passage of front east.
WX/vsby: heavy rain likely with most storms...so dip into IFR/MVFR
vsbys should be expected. Followed latest CAMS meso model trends to
highlight the periods with higher threat for SHRA/TS - expect some
adjustments as we move through Wed.
WINDS: generally south tonight but a fair amount of variability
indicted in the models...with a few boundaries and potential for a
weak area of low pressure. Should steady out from the south Wed
morning, swinging west/northwest with cold front passage late Wed
afternoon/evening. Note-expect some enhanced wind gusts with any
storm Wed afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Multiple rounds of storms are likely late this evening through
Wednesday evening. Given high precipitable water values nearing 2
inches, a deep warm cloud depth, and ample instability, any storms
will be capable of rain up to 1-2"/hr. HREF guidance suggests
potential for 3"+ of rain in localized corridors. Rain rates alone
could cause minor urban flooding. Flash flooding could not be ruled
out in areas impacted by multiple storms late tonight and Wednesday,
particularly those areas impacted by heavier rainfall over the past
day or two.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION....Rieck
HYDROLOGY...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
642 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Tuesday/
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Forecast Highlights:
- Heat Advisory remains until the evening with winds remaining gusty
through the evening
- Another hot and humid day, mainly southeast half afternoon/evening
-Showers and storms return tonight into Wednesday morning, some
severe
- Another round of strong to severe storms late afternoon to evening
Wednesday, more limited coverage
Satellite imagery depicts mainly clear skies across the state this
afternoon, with some high clouds over the far western area given the
interaction with the approaching trough to the west. The thermal
ridge continues to lift north this afternoon, with strong warm air
advection keeping gusty winds across the state. The northwestern
area as expected saw the highest gusts through the morning, with
gusts between 40-45 mph. These winds have since slightly died down
this afternoon, though winds will continue to be gusty between 30 to
35 mph through the early evening. Temperatures are trending as
forecast, with values largely in the low to mid 90s across Iowa.
Temperatures through peak heating will continue to increase just
slightly yet in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s
keeping rather uncomfortable weather into the evening.
Tonight/Wednesday morning:
A trough axis with a strengthening mid level low pressure system is
expected to pivot into the Northern Central Plains tonight, with an
associated cold front entering into eastern Nebraska/western Iowa
into the early evening. Temperatures overnight will be on the warmer
side into the mid 60s to 70s with dewpoints in the 60s, keeping
conditions relatively unstable. MUCAPE values off the 12z HRRR and
RAP models range in the 3500-4000 J/kg, along with moderate lapse
rates around 7-7.5 C/km and 35-40 knots of effective shear over
western Iowa late Tuesday and overnight into Wendesday morning.
These conditions are expected to be quite favorable for severe
thunderstorms this evening and overnight, as the SPC has a slight
risk over the majority of the warning area. HREF ensemble members
largely have storms traveling across the northwestern to central
portions of the state through Wednesday morning, though slight
differences exist on location of development and overall movement,
compared to the 12Z NAM having more widespread storms across much
of the state. The primary risk with this round of storms is
expected to be hail greater than 1 inch. Damaging wind gusts with
this storms also are looking possible, though a few tornadoes
cannot be ruled out. On the hydro side, model soundings continue
to show rather impressive PWAT values around 2 inches over
southwestern/western Iowa, along with the warm cloud layer
approaching 15kft that may prove favorable for heavy rainfall of
2-3 inches per hour, which the WPC currently has a marginal over
much of the state and a slight risk to the southwest. Considering
the storm motion, mean wind values are generally around 25-35
knots between RAP and NAM soundings which would help storms to
move along relatively quickly. Guidance also suggests low level
jet intensification towards 35kts after 03z tonight across the
much of the state which could increase the chance for training and
higher rainfall totals. Overall WPC guidance has 1-2" rainfall
totals over west/central parts of the state, though localized
higher amounts, especially to the southwest are likely.
Wednesday late afternoon to evening:
Temperatures across the southeastern half of the state will remain
dominated by southwesterly flow ahead of the slowly tracking cold
front, with peak heating values in the upper 80s to low 90s and dew
points in the low 70s. A Heat Advisory across portions of the
southeast will remain in effect between 1-8pm Wednesday. Winds will
continue to be on the breezy side with gusts largely between 20-30
knots ahead of the approaching cold front. Plenty of instability
will be available for storms to develop ahead of the front towards
the late afternoon to evening. Looking into the location of storm
initiation, the NAM and HHHR runs suggest development occurring
east of I-35/Des Moines metro area after 22-23z this evening,
which also comes into general agreement with the HREF ensembles as
well. MLCAPE values around 3000-3500 J/kg with 3500-4000 J/kg
MUCAPE will again be favorable for large hail at times with some
storms. Shear values are suggested at even higher values with 0-6
km vertical shear values of 50-55 knots. Given the orientation of
the shear vectors in relation to the storms themselves are more
favorable for cold pool dominant storms, which could overall limit
tornado potential. Large hail continues to be the primary threat,
though damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain cannot be ruled
out, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially
northeast where conditions are looking more favorable. A slight
risk again is over mainly the eastern half of the state looking
into this afternoon`s SPC guidance. On the hydro side for this
round storm motion is looking relatively on the faster side with
mean winds of 30-35 knots and lower PWATs. This should help limit
hydro concerns, though overall locally heavy rainfall may occur at
times with these storms.
Thursday and beyond:
Showers and weakening storms are expected to move out of the area
early Thursday morning. Conditions will largely remain dry through
the rest of the week as another large thermal ridge skirts out of
the northwest into the north central CONUS. The NAM suggests a
chance for some quick moving showers and storms late Thursday
through early Friday morning over southern Iowa, with strong
instability and moderate shear overhead. Some disagreement exists
though between the GFS and NAM on the placement of the boundary,
with more details expected in the coming days. Otherwise with the
prominent ridge, hot and uncomfortable temperatures are likely to
return into the weekend/early next week. Values from the NBM range
in the upper 90s to low 100s through Tuesday, with heat headlines
expected if not guaranteed by then.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
The line of cumulus clouds from southwest through central Iowa are
finally starting to break the cap, with few storms appearing on
doppler radar in west-central Iowa. A cold front is expected tos
stall over western Iowa. As the low-level jet kicks in, more
thunderstorm development is expected. This will expansively grow
during the overnight hours. Activity may continue through mid
morning on Wednesday. MVFR ceilings are expected with
thunderstorms bases around 2000 feet. Heavy rain at the terminal
may result in MVFR, possibly IFR visibility at times. Expect gusty
winds in the presence of thunderstorms.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Another day of record or near record heat is expected to continue
through this afternoon/early evening, which may lead to both high
and maximum low records for Tuesday/Today. The records for our
five primary climate sites are noted below. Waterloo, Ottumwa, and
Lamoni would be the more likely record high locations today based
on the current forecast. Record maximum low records appear likely
at all five locations, but this will be dependent on convective
trends into this evening as well.
Today`s record highs:
Mason City (100/1987)
Des Moines (101/1886)
Waterloo (99/1987)
Lamoni (96/1987)
Ottumwa (99/1987)
Today`s record maximum lows (though 1am CDT/midnight CST):
Mason City (73/1994)
Des Moines (75/1994)
Waterloo (75/1994)
Lamoni (77/1981)
Ottumwa (77/1981)
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004>007-015>017-
023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for IAZ062-075-085-
086-095>097.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bury/Curtis
AVIATION...Krull
CLIMATE...Bury/Curtis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
602 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022
...Updated for 00Z TAF Discussion...
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
We have low end gusty winds across the region this afternoon.
Those gusty winds are beginning to drop off and should slow
completely a little after sunset. The one exception may be some
gusty outflow winds moving up from the south later this evening.
For the rest of tonight we will see light west or southwest winds.
For Wednesday, we should see a little less winds, but I still
think several TAF sites will see another round of low end gusty
winds. Our ceilings will be mostly unlimited tonight, with some
high ceilings over Hudspeth County and a lingering smoke layer in
Sierra County. For Wednesday will have generally unlimited
ceilings in the morning and then a few mid and high clouds in the
afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will continue to run hot, but not as hot as over the
past week with high temperatures closer to normal through the
period. The first surge of monsoon moisture looks to enter the
area starting Thursday with eastern and northern zones having the
best chance for rain, then shifting westward for Friday and
Saturday before moving back toward the Rio Grande Valley for early
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow...
Currently, the visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds across
the the Otero and Hudspeth counties associated with the remnants
from the weak convection that developed last evening. The
temperature for El Paso is in the upper 90s with the winds below
advisory criteria. For tonight, an upper level ridge of high
pressure will linger across the East while the a trough of low
pressure gradually moves northeastward into the Northern Rockies and
the Upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture near the surface will be
drawn up into northern Mexico and far West Texas from off the Gulf
of Mexico. A few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or
two could develop across southern and eastern Hudspeth county. Any
active weather at this location will diminish before midnight and
should not be severe as the MUCAPE this evening will be below 1000
J/kg. I cannot rule out a heavy down pour or two with the dew point
temperatures in the 50s and the PWAT values near an inch.
For tomorrow, the dew point temperatures do not appear to be as high
as they will be overnight over the aforementioned area. The center
of the upper level ridge will push slightly westward while the ridge
broadens across the South and the Southwest. This will limit the
amount of convection across the CWA. As of now, a few convective
allowing models suggest one or two isolated thunderstorms along the
eastern edge of the CWA. The only models that suggest this are the
HiResW-FV3 and the HRRR while rest keeps us mostly dry. Due to this
uncertainty, I kept any mention precipitation out of the forecast.
The high temperatures will continue to be in the triple digits for
El Paso at least for one more day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Models in good agreement with the main synoptic features for the
long term. Expect period to start with upper low shifting east
along the Canadian border while upper high strengthens over the
southeast and elongates E-W then rebuilding over the Srn/Ctrl
Plains. This will setup a typical monsoon pattern for the region
with moisture starting to move in Thu. Initial moisture push isn`t
overly impressive with generally around an inch PW east and north.
Should still see some storm development over the higher elevations
and eastern zones during the aftn/evening and possibly pushing
over SW NM overnight. Going into Friday, already getting some
detail differences showing up as the GFS is bringing in some much
drier air to the area with dew points down to 30-35 over the east
and all the precipitation basically in AZ. This seems out of line
given the deep southeast flow off the Gulf up to the Borderland
continuing. EC sets up moisture plume west of the Divide with
decent precip during the day Fri. Canadian is more in line with
it`s ensembles as the EC and NAM. NBM pops out west were around
30-40 percent out west and didn`t modify too much. A similar
situation for Saturday with the EC keeping precip up to the Divide
while the GFS is in AZ. Still expecting moisture to remain at
least somewhat in NM.
Models come back into agreement even with precip starting Sunday
as an upper trough moves into NV and starts to push the moisture
back to the east. Strong ridge remains in place over the Plains
into the MS River Valley which stalls out the pattern a bit and
trough starts to weaken and move northeast. Should see precip
chances areawide early next week with this pattern. PW`s look to
be in the 1-1.25" range Mon/Tue, so some locally heavy rain will
be possible, but not quite what we will likely see in the peak of
the monsoon season.
As for temperatures, still hot with highs up near 100 to start out
the period for Thu/Fri, but with the southeast winds and
increased moisture, should see a drop in temps. Highs look to drop
into the lower to mid 90s for the lowlands by early next week with
overnight lows mainly in the 60s to lower 70s with some 50s in
area mountains.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and less breezy conditions are expected on Wednesday with the
temperatures still several degrees above the normal. There will
be no fire weather concerns on Wednesday. For Thursday, moisture
will begin to increase across the most of the zones. Areas mostly
east of the Rio Grande will have a chance of showers and
thunderstorms while areas to the west of the Rio Grande will see
less of a chance. Even though the moisture will increase across
much the area, some areas could see dry lightning where
precipitation might not reach the surface. This could cause some
fire weather concerns by then. By the end of the weekend, the
precipitation will begin to shift mainly to the west of the Rio
Grande. The temperatures will be near normal on Friday due to
rain-cooled air and cloud coverage. For the rest of the period,
similar conditions are expected with marginal moisture across the
Borderland.
The min RHs will be mostly below 15% except for part of the
Sacramento Mountains Wed and Thu. The min RHs will increase to
above 15% starting Fri starting from the east and extending to
the west. The ventilation rates will be fair to good Wed and
improving to very good to excellent Thu.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 73 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 20
Sierra Blanca 70 96 70 93 / 20 0 0 30
Las Cruces 67 100 71 98 / 0 0 0 20
Alamogordo 67 98 70 94 / 0 0 0 30
Cloudcroft 54 79 56 74 / 0 0 0 40
Truth or Consequences 68 99 70 96 / 0 0 0 10
Silver City 64 91 66 93 / 0 0 0 20
Deming 65 99 67 99 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 66 97 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 72 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 20
Dell City 67 100 68 94 / 0 0 0 30
Fort Hancock 71 102 72 99 / 20 0 0 20
Loma Linda 67 95 70 93 / 0 0 0 30
Fabens 72 102 73 100 / 0 0 0 20
Santa Teresa 68 99 72 98 / 0 0 0 20
White Sands HQ 73 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 30
Jornada Range 66 99 65 98 / 0 0 0 30
Hatch 65 100 69 99 / 0 0 0 20
Columbus 70 99 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 68 99 71 96 / 0 0 0 30
Mayhill 60 87 59 82 / 0 0 0 50
Mescalero 56 87 58 84 / 0 0 0 40
Timberon 57 87 57 83 / 0 0 0 40
Winston 60 91 62 89 / 0 0 0 20
Hillsboro 65 96 68 94 / 0 0 0 20
Spaceport 64 98 67 97 / 0 0 0 20
Lake Roberts 57 91 52 90 / 0 0 0 20
Hurley 61 95 61 97 / 0 0 0 10
Cliff 52 98 55 98 / 0 0 0 10
Mule Creek 60 93 51 96 / 0 0 0 10
Faywood 65 94 67 95 / 0 0 0 20
Animas 64 97 67 100 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 65 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 65 97 67 99 / 0 0 0 10
Cloverdale 63 93 66 96 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Brice
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1038 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level high will remain over the area through mid week
and maintain hot and humid conditions through the work week.
Dangerously high afternoon heat index values are expected through
Wednesday. Unsettled weather will continue, with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms possible each afternoon. Drier conditions
with near normal temperatures are expected for the weekend. The hot
ridge may build back over our region early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1015 PM EDT Tuesday: No significant changes for the late
evening update. Have gone through the 18z global models and looked
at CAMs/hi-res guidance and have opted not to issue a Heat Advisory
for tomorrow at this time. NBM 50pct is cooler, and CAMs are really
all over the place with convection. HRRR and NAM remain on the lower
end with convective potential, whereas FV3 is quite a bit more
bullish with more widespread convection...and of course the HRRR did
not do well with today`s convection. Given this continued
uncertainty, and in collaboration with surrounding offices, have
opted to let the midnight shift take a look at 00z guidance as it
trickles in and make a decision at that point rather than have a
repeat of today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tue: Assuming convection is able to initiate Wednesday
afternoon, certainly like subsequent rounds of storms convection
will linger well into the evening, or fire anew along outflows. Not
terribly confident in any of the CAMs given poor performance with
today`s activity, so will keep overnight PoP small.
The stalled boundary at the periphery of the East Coast sfc high
appears to activate as a warm front Thursday ahead of the low passing
north of the Great Lakes. Sfc winds appear likely to veer back to SW
as sfc high shifts offshore and in response to pressure falls in the
NE CONUS, ahead of the trough. This takes away the easterly component
that models seem to have keyed on to initiate convection Wednesday,
although they seem to hint at some weak prefrontal convergence
developing in East TN and our mountains which could trigger storms.
If any storms are able to fire, we probably would be looking at
seasonable pulse storms or loosely organized multicells, posing
mainly a damaging wind risk. Not seeing much reason to expect
Thursday to be much cooler than Wednesday. Partial thicknesses do
diminish a tad, but upper ridge effectively retrogrades, and
downsloping flow develops across the southern Appalachians.
Convection looks less likely overall, so that also allows us to be
somewhat more confident in advertising a heat risk. Forecast heat
indices are mostly in the 100 to 104 range for the Piedmont, so can`t
yet say an Advisory will be needed.
Gradual height falls do begin Friday morning over the region as the
trough moves to the East Coast. Meanwhile deep ridging will develop
in the central CONUS. The frontal trough is progged by most models to
pass the CWA during the afternoon, with little QPF response perhaps
on account of downsloping; several runs have depicted precip
developing south of the area Friday night. On the other hand,
downsloping will help keep Friday quite hot, although dewpoints are
expected to mix out nicely via that mechanism and with the trough
settling in. Temperatures still look to rise into the mid to upper
90s across the Piedmont although dewpoints may be able to mix out
well into the 60s. Heat index will top out around 100.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tue: Omega block will dominate the CONUS this weekend
into early next week. A deep upper ridge centered over the eastern
Plains and Mississippi Valley will be flanked by closed lows. We
should expect a few days of suppressed convection and unmentionably
low PoPs. Saturday looks to be a refreshingly less humid day as a
continental sfc high builds into the region downstream of the ridge,
though temperatures will still be a little above normal. Sunday is
expected to be the coolest day, with temperatures at or just below
normal; dewpoints may mix out into the 40s. Gradual progression of
the pattern will mean rising heights/thicknesses and the return
of well above normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Humidity
will remain low. We could end up trading the risk of excessive
heat for some degree of fire danger.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at TAF time. Cannot rule out some fog
overnight at KAVL, but otherwise no real restrictions expected
through the overnight hours at TAF sites. SW winds should shift NW
overnight but generally light as they continue to veer around to NE
into the morning hours. Expect VFR Cu to develop by late morning.
Uncertainty with timing of potential convection, also with how
widespread convective activity may be. Included PROB30 at all sites
except KAND where convection may be last to reach (perhaps after
00z). At KCLT, winds should swing on around to the SE in the out-
periods.
Outlook: Afternoon and evening convection will be possible through
the end of the work week. Mountain valley fog will be possible each
morning and in areas where heavy rain falls the previous day.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1952 63 1917 68 2004 42 1933
1969
1958
KCLT 99 2015 60 1884 75 1998 51 1933
1981
KGSP 97 1981 69 1965 74 1918 51 1904
1885 1906
RECORDS FOR 06-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 92 1934 62 1961 69 1939 43 1933
KCLT 99 2015 62 1965 75 1998 52 1961
KGSP 98 1981 65 1979 73 1914 50 1917
RECORDS FOR 06-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 92 1936 61 1927 68 2016 40 1917
1939
KCLT 100 1943 68 1927 75 1881 53 1917
KGSP 101 1887 67 1927 75 1981 49 1974
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/TDP
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
737 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend down from the north Wednesday into
Thursday with temperatures down closer to normal, but still very
warm. A brief warmup on Friday will be followed by a cold front
bringing relatively cooler and drier weather for the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Changes were made earlier when it became apparent that the Heat
Advisory wasn`t going to verify. Convective potential still
remains an uncertainty. Most CAMS show that storms miss us to
the N as they slide offshore along the Crystal Coast. Have
maintained very low POPs though, less so in deference to the
WRF, which looks to have feedback but moreso the GFS which does
have isolated activity across a good part of the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The near term has been extremely complex, especially with an old
outflow boundary moving south across the forecast area today with
implications on POPs and temperatures/heat indices. Additionally the
HRRR has had a hard time reconciling the convection along this
boundary which approached severe limits across the far southern
zones. Big questions remain about the upstream convection across
south central Virginia diving southward. If these storms hold
together they could mainly impact eastern NC and clip portions of
southeast NC. In addition they will be moving into an area with
lower dewpoints in the wake of the aforementioned outflow. At this
time will maintain 20-30 POPs (highest across the northeast zones)
through the evening, then improving conditions overnight.
The surface trough will move off the coast overnight allowing winds
to veer to a NE-Ely direction during Wednesday with a weak surface
ridge setting up along the Mid-Atlantic and Carolina coasts. The
onshore flow will help limit the heat index along the coastal areas
however, the heat index may approach Heat Advisory criteria again
along/near the I-95 corridor. Also, could see isolated to widely
scattered showers and tstms in this area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Not a lot of changes in order for the short term/end of
the work week period. Mid level ridging will be in control once again
Thursday but will begin to make its move west based on what is
seemingly a relentless volley mid level shortwaves moving across the
eastward extent of the feature. The most active of these features
will move across Friday with a surface cold front moving across.
Pops remain in the low chance range. Temperature guidance has cooled
ever so slightly and there may not be a need for a headline Thursday
with lower dewpoints probably playing more a role. A Heat Advisory
may be needed Friday but a little more uncertainty at this point.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High and dry for the extended period as the area will be under
the influence of a broad cyclonic flow aloft. High pressure at
the surface will slowly build in from the north as well. The
highlight of the temperature forecast will be highs only in the
middle 80s or so Sunday with a couple of cool mornings, Sunday
and Monday. Some guidance is showing numbers in the upper 50s
but for now the official forecast leans a little warmer.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through the period. Winds in the very near term will be
light and variable, the airmass still in recovery mode from the
earlier convection. From then on FM groups will only be needed
for wind direction changes.
Extended Outlook...Early morning fog/stratus through Thursday cannot
be entirely ruled out but confidence is low at this time. Mainly
isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible each afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Wednesday:
Outflow moved from north to south across the
waters and has temporarily skewed the wind fields early this
afternoon. Southwesterly flow is expected across all of the waters
during this afternoon and evening. The flow will veer to an offshore
direction tonight in the wake of the surface trough, then from a
northeast direction Wednesday morning as a weak ridge builds in from
the Mid-Atlantic coast. Additional veering to an onshore direction
is expected by Wednesday afternoon. Seas will average 3 ft through
Wednesday.
Wednesday Night through Sunday:
Benign wind fields will remain in place across the waters
Thursday with a modest flow with wind speeds around ten knots at
best with a southerly component. A more pronounced southwest flow of
10-15 knots will develop Friday and may increase to 15-20 knots
briefly. For the weekend a brief offshore flow will develop in the
wake of a decent cold front but northeast winds will be the main
nature of the winds. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet at their peak
coinciding with the stronger winds Friday and early Saturday
otherwise moreso around two feet.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MBB
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MBB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
819 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds back into the region Wednesday through
Friday. A much stronger cold front is expected to move through
Friday night bringing a cooler and drier airmass.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM Tuesday...A quiet evening across Eastern NC with
nothing on radar at the moment. Was tempted to make the rest of
the night completely dry but maintained a low chance (20%)
through midnight for a few showers. We still have a backdoor
cold front moving in from the northeast over the next few hours.
The latest HRRR shows an area of scattered showers between 01Z
and 05Z, along and just ahead of this front. With that in mind
kept these shower chances in for a few hours, but removed any
mention of thunder. Lows remain in the 70s overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 PM Tuesday...High pressure over Maine will control our
weather Wednesday. A much drier airmass will translate into a
dry day with highs in the 90s and comfortable dewpoints in the
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Tue...Atms stabilizes behind today`s convection and
temps/RH`s become much more tolerable with near-climo temps
expected Wed-Thu. Hot and humid Fri ahead of cold front and deep
trough. Cooler and much drier behind the front second half of
the weekend to early next week.
Wednesday night through Thursday...The heat ridge should get
knocked down mid week as instability works westward behind MCS
or convective activity that happens today. Temps/TD`s will drop
respectively, and conditions back to near climo with highs in
generally 85-90 and lows upr 60s to lowr 70s.
Friday...14/00Z global model suite in good agreement on synoptic
pattern, with amplifying ridge in the ctrl CONUS and respective
digging trough across the ern CONUS. This will drive a strong
cold front through ENC by Friday night. Ahead of it will be the
next chc of thunderstorms for the area. The question is how
much moisture is available with the front, and thus retained
30-40% pops in the fcst. Atms should become quite warm and
unstable, with fcst CAPES aoa 3000 J/KG and deep layer shear
(30-40kt) sufficient for severe thunderstorms. Again, moisture
availability is the question at this time, so will have to
monitor model trends through the week. Highs Friday will soar
back into the mid 90s interior with mid/upr 80s beaches.
Saturday through Monday...Aforementioned front will be off the
coast by Sat, setting the stage for a much more comfortable air
mass with TD`s falling into the 50s to low 60s for most folks
this weekend, esp by Sunday when thicknesses are at their
lowest. Highs will be in the 80s, with lows in the 60-65 degree
range, or possible a touch cooler. This would be around 5
degrees below climo.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday night/...
As of 800 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions expected through the end
of the TAF period. Broken mid level clouds between 5kft and 10kt
will rule the TAFS overnight as a cold front passes through.
Earlier guidance had suggested a brief window of MVFR cigs
behind the front toward daybreak, but this remains too unlikely
to include in the TAFS. Instead expected VFR conditions through
Wednesday with light winds overnight, backing into the northeast
at least than 10 kts Wednesday, behind the front.
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Tue...Mainly VFR through the pd as high pres will
generally be in control. Next cold front set to move through
late Friday, with showers/storms possible ahead of the front
Friday afternoon and evening. Dry high pres returns for the
weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
As of 8 PM Tuesday...A cold front will move through the waters
this evening, shifting winds from southwest to northwest with
the passage. Overall winds will be 10 to 20 kts and we allowed
the previous SCA to expire this evening. Winds behind the
front will shift into the northeast Wednesday, at 10 to 20 kts
with seas 2 to 3 feet.
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Tue...Back door cool front will bring nerly breezes
to the waters and sounds on Wed, with speeds generally 5-15 kt,
and seas will be 3-4 ft. Winds turn erly Wed night, then veer
further to serly on Thu, though speeds should generally only be
10 kt or less. Seas subside further to 2-3 ft. Winds turn swrly
and inc to 15 kt or higher Thu night and last into late Friday
as gradient increases due to approaching cold front. Seas
increase to to 3-4 ft, with some 5 ft sets developing by early
Fri evening. Cold front passes Friday night with winds turning
north for Sat.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...EH
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...EH/TL
MARINE...EH/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
933 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak back door cold front will move through portions of central NC
tonight. High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic will remain in place
through Thursday. A cold front will move through the area late
Friday and early Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 933 PM Tuesday...
Water vapor imagery this evening depicts continued northwesterly
flow aloft across central NC. At the surface, observational analysis
showed a backdoor cold front draped along a line extending from KTDF
southeast towards KGSB with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower
80s behind the front. This front could induce some scattered showers
through early tomorrow morning as it progresses westward. Decided to
lean heavily on the HRRR tonight as it did the best job depicting
today`s lack of convection across the area. With that in mind,
updated POPs tonight to focus moreso along the I-95 corridor where
showers may be possible through midnight or so. Forecast soundings
in this vicinity depict ~300 to 400 J/kg of SBCIN tonight, which
will likely inhibit any convective activity if anything develops at
all. Otherwise, some guidance suggests that stratus may develop
across the region early tomorrow morning. Lastly, another muggy
night is on tap with lows in the upper 60s (far NE) to lower 70s
(elsewhere).
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...
There is a Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms again on Wednesday
mainly for the western portion of the forecast area. As the sub
tropical ridge continues to influence the area, any MCV that
develops in the afternoon could trigger some stronger convection as
the ridge pulls warm moist air into the region. Skies will be party
cloudy which will help with temperatures stay in the low to mid 90s.
Heat indices are expected to stay below heat advisory criteria, but
everyone should still be cautious of the heat.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...
Thursday and Friday... temperatures will remain around 10 degrees
above normal with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the low
70s. A cold front that will move across the the OH valley and into
the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday will bring a chance of showers and
storms during the morning to the Triad before spreading eastward by
the afternoon and continue into the evening and overnight hours. As
the front pushes east of the area Friday morning, expect a few
lingering scattered showers and storms Friday afternoon especially
areas along and east of the US1 corridor.
Saturday through Tuesday... As the cold front exits the region high
pressure will build in from the NW and bring cooler and drier air.
Highs for the weekend will be in the mid 80s NW to upper 80s and
some low 90s SE. Saturday night temperatures will drop down into the
upper 50s NW to low 60s everywhere else. As high pressure slowly
moves offshore Monday and Tuesday, temperatures early next week will
climb back into the mid and upper 90s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 743 PM Tuesday...
Through 00Z Thursday: Currently we`re seeing a mixture of mainly mid
and high clouds which are remnants of earlier convection. Look for
mainly VFR conditions to continue through the night, however it`s
worth noting that some of the guidance suggests a brief period of
MVFR cigs could develop a few hours either side of sunrise. Once any
MVFR cigs lift after sunrise, look for VFR conditions to continue
through the rest of the 24 hour TAF period. The exception may be
near KINT/KGSO, where some of the CAMs suggest another batch of
tstms may drop south out of SW VA late in the TAF period. However,
confidence in that happening is too low attm for inclusion in the
TAFs.
After 00Z Thursday: Generally VFR conditions are expected through
much of the long term period. The exception may be late Thursday
through mid-day Friday when another round of shower/tstms are
possible with the passage of a cold front.
&&
.CLIMATE...
(Corrected).
Upcoming record highs for climate sites:
Tue June 14 Wed June 15
FAY 100 101
GSO 98 97
RDU 97 99
Upcoming record high minimums for climate sites:
Tue June 14 Wed June 15
FAY 75 76
GSO 71 73
RDU 76 76
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...np
CLIMATE...Badgett