Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/15/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1005 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Key Messages: - Multiple rounds of storms tonight-Wednesday, with a more significant severe weather event looking increasingly likely Wednesday afternoon/early evening - Dry weather returns Thursday into the weekend - More hot weather Sunday into early next week Tonight-Wednesday night... An active period of weather remains likely heading through tonight and especially Wednesday with multiple rounds of storms and perhaps one more hot day on Wednesday for parts of the area. For tonight, there is fairly good consensus among high res models in showers/storms developing by late evening as a boundary works into the area and mid-level temps cool slightly. Despite boundary layer stabilization and a shrinking surface-based CAPE pool, substantial elevated instability and flow aloft could support a few strong/severe storms with large hail/heavy rain the main threat and some risk for strong winds. There is loose agreement in another area of showers/storms spreading northeast late tonight into Wednesday morning near/north of the surface boundary in association with a weak upper wave/warm advection. Heavy rain, hail, and perhaps strong winds will be possible with these storms. The likely higher impact event is slated for tomorrow afternoon/early evening as a stronger shortwave trough approaches with favorable afternoon timing. Some uncertainty remains in how morning storms will evolve with potential impacts on destabilization. This could have impacts for afternoon development, especially for western areas, although the 14.12Z HREF shows an increasing signal via UH tracks for severe storms during the afternoon into western/central WI. Current thinking is that strong destabilization will occur over at least the southeast half of the area with the RAP showing MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg by afternoon. A strengthening low-level jet will aid in increasing low-level shear with enlarged clock-wise turning hodographs in the warm sector ahead of the front by afternoon. 40-50 kts of 0-3 km bulk shear is expected, sufficient for supercells, although shear drops off above around 6 km. Despite some weakness in mid-level lapse rates, large deep CAPE profiles would suggest potential for large to very large hail. Tornadoes are also possible, with some chance for a strong tornado, particularly if a weak surface low with backed low-level flow develops as indicated by some models, enhancing low-level shear. This currently seems most likely across parts of central Wisconsin. A more organized wind threat could develop if upscale growth with a well-defined cold pool occurs across the area. See the hydro section below for more on the heavy rain potential, but the airmass will remain ripe for high rain rates and localized higher rainfall amounts. The cold front will move through by early to mid evening with storms quickly exiting. Details will be fine-tuned through the overnight/morning as convective evolution becomes more clear. While more cloud cover/convection should keep most areas several degrees cooler than today, at least southeastern counties may see temps climb into the 90s with heat indices nearing 100 on Wednesday. Thursday-Tuesday... A drier, more seasonable airmass will settle across the area late this week into the weekend as surface high pressure drifts east. Heading later into the weekend and early next week, mid/upper level ridging will build eastward from the plains into the Upper Midwest, setting the stage for a return of heat/humidity. Highs back into the 90s are possible during the Sunday-Tuesday time with NAEFS 850 mb temp standard anomalies already in the +2-3 range on Monday, highlighting the potential for an anomalously warm airmass, even by June standards. With the ridge building across the area, the late week/weekend looks to be mostly dry. However, a few showers or storms could not be completely ruled out with any low amplitude shortwave topping the ridge. There is some indication that the ridge could flatten by early next week, aiding in increased convective potential, but substantial uncertainty exists in these details. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1005 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 A few rounds of showers and storms tonight through Wed. A few could be strong, potentially severe, with a greater threat for severe storms Wed afternoon. Wind, hail and vsby impacts all likely for Wed afternoon. Timing the rounds in is tricky and expect some refinement as the various forcers (shortwaves, sfc cold front, overnight convection boundaries, etc) play out. For now, will lean heavily on the CAMS models to time the higher threat/impact times for shra/ts. CIGS: trends favor mostly bkn VFR into Wed morning. Expect some lowering with the storms associated with cold front for Wed afternoon, dipping into MVFR. Should clear out Wed evening with passage of front east. WX/vsby: heavy rain likely with most dip into IFR/MVFR vsbys should be expected. Followed latest CAMS meso model trends to highlight the periods with higher threat for SHRA/TS - expect some adjustments as we move through Wed. WINDS: generally south tonight but a fair amount of variability indicted in the models...with a few boundaries and potential for a weak area of low pressure. Should steady out from the south Wed morning, swinging west/northwest with cold front passage late Wed afternoon/evening. Note-expect some enhanced wind gusts with any storm Wed afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Multiple rounds of storms are likely late this evening through Wednesday evening. Given high precipitable water values nearing 2 inches, a deep warm cloud depth, and ample instability, any storms will be capable of rain up to 1-2"/hr. HREF guidance suggests potential for 3"+ of rain in localized corridors. Rain rates alone could cause minor urban flooding. Flash flooding could not be ruled out in areas impacted by multiple storms late tonight and Wednesday, particularly those areas impacted by heavier rainfall over the past day or two. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION....Rieck HYDROLOGY...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
642 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Tuesday/ Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Forecast Highlights: - Heat Advisory remains until the evening with winds remaining gusty through the evening - Another hot and humid day, mainly southeast half afternoon/evening -Showers and storms return tonight into Wednesday morning, some severe - Another round of strong to severe storms late afternoon to evening Wednesday, more limited coverage Satellite imagery depicts mainly clear skies across the state this afternoon, with some high clouds over the far western area given the interaction with the approaching trough to the west. The thermal ridge continues to lift north this afternoon, with strong warm air advection keeping gusty winds across the state. The northwestern area as expected saw the highest gusts through the morning, with gusts between 40-45 mph. These winds have since slightly died down this afternoon, though winds will continue to be gusty between 30 to 35 mph through the early evening. Temperatures are trending as forecast, with values largely in the low to mid 90s across Iowa. Temperatures through peak heating will continue to increase just slightly yet in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s keeping rather uncomfortable weather into the evening. Tonight/Wednesday morning: A trough axis with a strengthening mid level low pressure system is expected to pivot into the Northern Central Plains tonight, with an associated cold front entering into eastern Nebraska/western Iowa into the early evening. Temperatures overnight will be on the warmer side into the mid 60s to 70s with dewpoints in the 60s, keeping conditions relatively unstable. MUCAPE values off the 12z HRRR and RAP models range in the 3500-4000 J/kg, along with moderate lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km and 35-40 knots of effective shear over western Iowa late Tuesday and overnight into Wendesday morning. These conditions are expected to be quite favorable for severe thunderstorms this evening and overnight, as the SPC has a slight risk over the majority of the warning area. HREF ensemble members largely have storms traveling across the northwestern to central portions of the state through Wednesday morning, though slight differences exist on location of development and overall movement, compared to the 12Z NAM having more widespread storms across much of the state. The primary risk with this round of storms is expected to be hail greater than 1 inch. Damaging wind gusts with this storms also are looking possible, though a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. On the hydro side, model soundings continue to show rather impressive PWAT values around 2 inches over southwestern/western Iowa, along with the warm cloud layer approaching 15kft that may prove favorable for heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches per hour, which the WPC currently has a marginal over much of the state and a slight risk to the southwest. Considering the storm motion, mean wind values are generally around 25-35 knots between RAP and NAM soundings which would help storms to move along relatively quickly. Guidance also suggests low level jet intensification towards 35kts after 03z tonight across the much of the state which could increase the chance for training and higher rainfall totals. Overall WPC guidance has 1-2" rainfall totals over west/central parts of the state, though localized higher amounts, especially to the southwest are likely. Wednesday late afternoon to evening: Temperatures across the southeastern half of the state will remain dominated by southwesterly flow ahead of the slowly tracking cold front, with peak heating values in the upper 80s to low 90s and dew points in the low 70s. A Heat Advisory across portions of the southeast will remain in effect between 1-8pm Wednesday. Winds will continue to be on the breezy side with gusts largely between 20-30 knots ahead of the approaching cold front. Plenty of instability will be available for storms to develop ahead of the front towards the late afternoon to evening. Looking into the location of storm initiation, the NAM and HHHR runs suggest development occurring east of I-35/Des Moines metro area after 22-23z this evening, which also comes into general agreement with the HREF ensembles as well. MLCAPE values around 3000-3500 J/kg with 3500-4000 J/kg MUCAPE will again be favorable for large hail at times with some storms. Shear values are suggested at even higher values with 0-6 km vertical shear values of 50-55 knots. Given the orientation of the shear vectors in relation to the storms themselves are more favorable for cold pool dominant storms, which could overall limit tornado potential. Large hail continues to be the primary threat, though damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially northeast where conditions are looking more favorable. A slight risk again is over mainly the eastern half of the state looking into this afternoon`s SPC guidance. On the hydro side for this round storm motion is looking relatively on the faster side with mean winds of 30-35 knots and lower PWATs. This should help limit hydro concerns, though overall locally heavy rainfall may occur at times with these storms. Thursday and beyond: Showers and weakening storms are expected to move out of the area early Thursday morning. Conditions will largely remain dry through the rest of the week as another large thermal ridge skirts out of the northwest into the north central CONUS. The NAM suggests a chance for some quick moving showers and storms late Thursday through early Friday morning over southern Iowa, with strong instability and moderate shear overhead. Some disagreement exists though between the GFS and NAM on the placement of the boundary, with more details expected in the coming days. Otherwise with the prominent ridge, hot and uncomfortable temperatures are likely to return into the weekend/early next week. Values from the NBM range in the upper 90s to low 100s through Tuesday, with heat headlines expected if not guaranteed by then. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/ Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 The line of cumulus clouds from southwest through central Iowa are finally starting to break the cap, with few storms appearing on doppler radar in west-central Iowa. A cold front is expected tos stall over western Iowa. As the low-level jet kicks in, more thunderstorm development is expected. This will expansively grow during the overnight hours. Activity may continue through mid morning on Wednesday. MVFR ceilings are expected with thunderstorms bases around 2000 feet. Heavy rain at the terminal may result in MVFR, possibly IFR visibility at times. Expect gusty winds in the presence of thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Another day of record or near record heat is expected to continue through this afternoon/early evening, which may lead to both high and maximum low records for Tuesday/Today. The records for our five primary climate sites are noted below. Waterloo, Ottumwa, and Lamoni would be the more likely record high locations today based on the current forecast. Record maximum low records appear likely at all five locations, but this will be dependent on convective trends into this evening as well. Today`s record highs: Mason City (100/1987) Des Moines (101/1886) Waterloo (99/1987) Lamoni (96/1987) Ottumwa (99/1987) Today`s record maximum lows (though 1am CDT/midnight CST): Mason City (73/1994) Des Moines (75/1994) Waterloo (75/1994) Lamoni (77/1981) Ottumwa (77/1981) && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004>007-015>017- 023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for IAZ062-075-085- 086-095>097. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bury/Curtis AVIATION...Krull CLIMATE...Bury/Curtis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
602 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 ...Updated for 00Z TAF Discussion... .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE We have low end gusty winds across the region this afternoon. Those gusty winds are beginning to drop off and should slow completely a little after sunset. The one exception may be some gusty outflow winds moving up from the south later this evening. For the rest of tonight we will see light west or southwest winds. For Wednesday, we should see a little less winds, but I still think several TAF sites will see another round of low end gusty winds. Our ceilings will be mostly unlimited tonight, with some high ceilings over Hudspeth County and a lingering smoke layer in Sierra County. For Wednesday will have generally unlimited ceilings in the morning and then a few mid and high clouds in the afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022... .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will continue to run hot, but not as hot as over the past week with high temperatures closer to normal through the period. The first surge of monsoon moisture looks to enter the area starting Thursday with eastern and northern zones having the best chance for rain, then shifting westward for Friday and Saturday before moving back toward the Rio Grande Valley for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow... Currently, the visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds across the the Otero and Hudspeth counties associated with the remnants from the weak convection that developed last evening. The temperature for El Paso is in the upper 90s with the winds below advisory criteria. For tonight, an upper level ridge of high pressure will linger across the East while the a trough of low pressure gradually moves northeastward into the Northern Rockies and the Upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture near the surface will be drawn up into northern Mexico and far West Texas from off the Gulf of Mexico. A few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two could develop across southern and eastern Hudspeth county. Any active weather at this location will diminish before midnight and should not be severe as the MUCAPE this evening will be below 1000 J/kg. I cannot rule out a heavy down pour or two with the dew point temperatures in the 50s and the PWAT values near an inch. For tomorrow, the dew point temperatures do not appear to be as high as they will be overnight over the aforementioned area. The center of the upper level ridge will push slightly westward while the ridge broadens across the South and the Southwest. This will limit the amount of convection across the CWA. As of now, a few convective allowing models suggest one or two isolated thunderstorms along the eastern edge of the CWA. The only models that suggest this are the HiResW-FV3 and the HRRR while rest keeps us mostly dry. Due to this uncertainty, I kept any mention precipitation out of the forecast. The high temperatures will continue to be in the triple digits for El Paso at least for one more day. && .LONG TERM... Models in good agreement with the main synoptic features for the long term. Expect period to start with upper low shifting east along the Canadian border while upper high strengthens over the southeast and elongates E-W then rebuilding over the Srn/Ctrl Plains. This will setup a typical monsoon pattern for the region with moisture starting to move in Thu. Initial moisture push isn`t overly impressive with generally around an inch PW east and north. Should still see some storm development over the higher elevations and eastern zones during the aftn/evening and possibly pushing over SW NM overnight. Going into Friday, already getting some detail differences showing up as the GFS is bringing in some much drier air to the area with dew points down to 30-35 over the east and all the precipitation basically in AZ. This seems out of line given the deep southeast flow off the Gulf up to the Borderland continuing. EC sets up moisture plume west of the Divide with decent precip during the day Fri. Canadian is more in line with it`s ensembles as the EC and NAM. NBM pops out west were around 30-40 percent out west and didn`t modify too much. A similar situation for Saturday with the EC keeping precip up to the Divide while the GFS is in AZ. Still expecting moisture to remain at least somewhat in NM. Models come back into agreement even with precip starting Sunday as an upper trough moves into NV and starts to push the moisture back to the east. Strong ridge remains in place over the Plains into the MS River Valley which stalls out the pattern a bit and trough starts to weaken and move northeast. Should see precip chances areawide early next week with this pattern. PW`s look to be in the 1-1.25" range Mon/Tue, so some locally heavy rain will be possible, but not quite what we will likely see in the peak of the monsoon season. As for temperatures, still hot with highs up near 100 to start out the period for Thu/Fri, but with the southeast winds and increased moisture, should see a drop in temps. Highs look to drop into the lower to mid 90s for the lowlands by early next week with overnight lows mainly in the 60s to lower 70s with some 50s in area mountains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry and less breezy conditions are expected on Wednesday with the temperatures still several degrees above the normal. There will be no fire weather concerns on Wednesday. For Thursday, moisture will begin to increase across the most of the zones. Areas mostly east of the Rio Grande will have a chance of showers and thunderstorms while areas to the west of the Rio Grande will see less of a chance. Even though the moisture will increase across much the area, some areas could see dry lightning where precipitation might not reach the surface. This could cause some fire weather concerns by then. By the end of the weekend, the precipitation will begin to shift mainly to the west of the Rio Grande. The temperatures will be near normal on Friday due to rain-cooled air and cloud coverage. For the rest of the period, similar conditions are expected with marginal moisture across the Borderland. The min RHs will be mostly below 15% except for part of the Sacramento Mountains Wed and Thu. The min RHs will increase to above 15% starting Fri starting from the east and extending to the west. The ventilation rates will be fair to good Wed and improving to very good to excellent Thu. && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 20 Sierra Blanca 70 96 70 93 / 20 0 0 30 Las Cruces 67 100 71 98 / 0 0 0 20 Alamogordo 67 98 70 94 / 0 0 0 30 Cloudcroft 54 79 56 74 / 0 0 0 40 Truth or Consequences 68 99 70 96 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 64 91 66 93 / 0 0 0 20 Deming 65 99 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 66 97 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 72 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 20 Dell City 67 100 68 94 / 0 0 0 30 Fort Hancock 71 102 72 99 / 20 0 0 20 Loma Linda 67 95 70 93 / 0 0 0 30 Fabens 72 102 73 100 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Teresa 68 99 72 98 / 0 0 0 20 White Sands HQ 73 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 30 Jornada Range 66 99 65 98 / 0 0 0 30 Hatch 65 100 69 99 / 0 0 0 20 Columbus 70 99 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 68 99 71 96 / 0 0 0 30 Mayhill 60 87 59 82 / 0 0 0 50 Mescalero 56 87 58 84 / 0 0 0 40 Timberon 57 87 57 83 / 0 0 0 40 Winston 60 91 62 89 / 0 0 0 20 Hillsboro 65 96 68 94 / 0 0 0 20 Spaceport 64 98 67 97 / 0 0 0 20 Lake Roberts 57 91 52 90 / 0 0 0 20 Hurley 61 95 61 97 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 52 98 55 98 / 0 0 0 10 Mule Creek 60 93 51 96 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 65 94 67 95 / 0 0 0 20 Animas 64 97 67 100 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 65 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 97 67 99 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 63 93 66 96 / 0 0 0 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ Brice
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1038 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong upper level high will remain over the area through mid week and maintain hot and humid conditions through the work week. Dangerously high afternoon heat index values are expected through Wednesday. Unsettled weather will continue, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible each afternoon. Drier conditions with near normal temperatures are expected for the weekend. The hot ridge may build back over our region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1015 PM EDT Tuesday: No significant changes for the late evening update. Have gone through the 18z global models and looked at CAMs/hi-res guidance and have opted not to issue a Heat Advisory for tomorrow at this time. NBM 50pct is cooler, and CAMs are really all over the place with convection. HRRR and NAM remain on the lower end with convective potential, whereas FV3 is quite a bit more bullish with more widespread convection...and of course the HRRR did not do well with today`s convection. Given this continued uncertainty, and in collaboration with surrounding offices, have opted to let the midnight shift take a look at 00z guidance as it trickles in and make a decision at that point rather than have a repeat of today. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 100 PM Tue: Assuming convection is able to initiate Wednesday afternoon, certainly like subsequent rounds of storms convection will linger well into the evening, or fire anew along outflows. Not terribly confident in any of the CAMs given poor performance with today`s activity, so will keep overnight PoP small. The stalled boundary at the periphery of the East Coast sfc high appears to activate as a warm front Thursday ahead of the low passing north of the Great Lakes. Sfc winds appear likely to veer back to SW as sfc high shifts offshore and in response to pressure falls in the NE CONUS, ahead of the trough. This takes away the easterly component that models seem to have keyed on to initiate convection Wednesday, although they seem to hint at some weak prefrontal convergence developing in East TN and our mountains which could trigger storms. If any storms are able to fire, we probably would be looking at seasonable pulse storms or loosely organized multicells, posing mainly a damaging wind risk. Not seeing much reason to expect Thursday to be much cooler than Wednesday. Partial thicknesses do diminish a tad, but upper ridge effectively retrogrades, and downsloping flow develops across the southern Appalachians. Convection looks less likely overall, so that also allows us to be somewhat more confident in advertising a heat risk. Forecast heat indices are mostly in the 100 to 104 range for the Piedmont, so can`t yet say an Advisory will be needed. Gradual height falls do begin Friday morning over the region as the trough moves to the East Coast. Meanwhile deep ridging will develop in the central CONUS. The frontal trough is progged by most models to pass the CWA during the afternoon, with little QPF response perhaps on account of downsloping; several runs have depicted precip developing south of the area Friday night. On the other hand, downsloping will help keep Friday quite hot, although dewpoints are expected to mix out nicely via that mechanism and with the trough settling in. Temperatures still look to rise into the mid to upper 90s across the Piedmont although dewpoints may be able to mix out well into the 60s. Heat index will top out around 100. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM Tue: Omega block will dominate the CONUS this weekend into early next week. A deep upper ridge centered over the eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley will be flanked by closed lows. We should expect a few days of suppressed convection and unmentionably low PoPs. Saturday looks to be a refreshingly less humid day as a continental sfc high builds into the region downstream of the ridge, though temperatures will still be a little above normal. Sunday is expected to be the coolest day, with temperatures at or just below normal; dewpoints may mix out into the 40s. Gradual progression of the pattern will mean rising heights/thicknesses and the return of well above normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Humidity will remain low. We could end up trading the risk of excessive heat for some degree of fire danger. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at TAF time. Cannot rule out some fog overnight at KAVL, but otherwise no real restrictions expected through the overnight hours at TAF sites. SW winds should shift NW overnight but generally light as they continue to veer around to NE into the morning hours. Expect VFR Cu to develop by late morning. Uncertainty with timing of potential convection, also with how widespread convective activity may be. Included PROB30 at all sites except KAND where convection may be last to reach (perhaps after 00z). At KCLT, winds should swing on around to the SE in the out- periods. Outlook: Afternoon and evening convection will be possible through the end of the work week. Mountain valley fog will be possible each morning and in areas where heavy rain falls the previous day. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 06-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 93 1952 63 1917 68 2004 42 1933 1969 1958 KCLT 99 2015 60 1884 75 1998 51 1933 1981 KGSP 97 1981 69 1965 74 1918 51 1904 1885 1906 RECORDS FOR 06-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 92 1934 62 1961 69 1939 43 1933 KCLT 99 2015 62 1965 75 1998 52 1961 KGSP 98 1981 65 1979 73 1914 50 1917 RECORDS FOR 06-17 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 92 1936 61 1927 68 2016 40 1917 1939 KCLT 100 1943 68 1927 75 1881 53 1917 KGSP 101 1887 67 1927 75 1981 49 1974 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...JDL/TDP SHORT TERM...Wimberley LONG TERM...Wimberley AVIATION...TDP CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
737 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend down from the north Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures down closer to normal, but still very warm. A brief warmup on Friday will be followed by a cold front bringing relatively cooler and drier weather for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Changes were made earlier when it became apparent that the Heat Advisory wasn`t going to verify. Convective potential still remains an uncertainty. Most CAMS show that storms miss us to the N as they slide offshore along the Crystal Coast. Have maintained very low POPs though, less so in deference to the WRF, which looks to have feedback but moreso the GFS which does have isolated activity across a good part of the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The near term has been extremely complex, especially with an old outflow boundary moving south across the forecast area today with implications on POPs and temperatures/heat indices. Additionally the HRRR has had a hard time reconciling the convection along this boundary which approached severe limits across the far southern zones. Big questions remain about the upstream convection across south central Virginia diving southward. If these storms hold together they could mainly impact eastern NC and clip portions of southeast NC. In addition they will be moving into an area with lower dewpoints in the wake of the aforementioned outflow. At this time will maintain 20-30 POPs (highest across the northeast zones) through the evening, then improving conditions overnight. The surface trough will move off the coast overnight allowing winds to veer to a NE-Ely direction during Wednesday with a weak surface ridge setting up along the Mid-Atlantic and Carolina coasts. The onshore flow will help limit the heat index along the coastal areas however, the heat index may approach Heat Advisory criteria again along/near the I-95 corridor. Also, could see isolated to widely scattered showers and tstms in this area. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Not a lot of changes in order for the short term/end of the work week period. Mid level ridging will be in control once again Thursday but will begin to make its move west based on what is seemingly a relentless volley mid level shortwaves moving across the eastward extent of the feature. The most active of these features will move across Friday with a surface cold front moving across. Pops remain in the low chance range. Temperature guidance has cooled ever so slightly and there may not be a need for a headline Thursday with lower dewpoints probably playing more a role. A Heat Advisory may be needed Friday but a little more uncertainty at this point. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High and dry for the extended period as the area will be under the influence of a broad cyclonic flow aloft. High pressure at the surface will slowly build in from the north as well. The highlight of the temperature forecast will be highs only in the middle 80s or so Sunday with a couple of cool mornings, Sunday and Monday. Some guidance is showing numbers in the upper 50s but for now the official forecast leans a little warmer. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR through the period. Winds in the very near term will be light and variable, the airmass still in recovery mode from the earlier convection. From then on FM groups will only be needed for wind direction changes. Extended Outlook...Early morning fog/stratus through Thursday cannot be entirely ruled out but confidence is low at this time. Mainly isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday: Outflow moved from north to south across the waters and has temporarily skewed the wind fields early this afternoon. Southwesterly flow is expected across all of the waters during this afternoon and evening. The flow will veer to an offshore direction tonight in the wake of the surface trough, then from a northeast direction Wednesday morning as a weak ridge builds in from the Mid-Atlantic coast. Additional veering to an onshore direction is expected by Wednesday afternoon. Seas will average 3 ft through Wednesday. Wednesday Night through Sunday: Benign wind fields will remain in place across the waters Thursday with a modest flow with wind speeds around ten knots at best with a southerly component. A more pronounced southwest flow of 10-15 knots will develop Friday and may increase to 15-20 knots briefly. For the weekend a brief offshore flow will develop in the wake of a decent cold front but northeast winds will be the main nature of the winds. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet at their peak coinciding with the stronger winds Friday and early Saturday otherwise moreso around two feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...MBB NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MBB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
819 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds back into the region Wednesday through Friday. A much stronger cold front is expected to move through Friday night bringing a cooler and drier airmass. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 800 PM Tuesday...A quiet evening across Eastern NC with nothing on radar at the moment. Was tempted to make the rest of the night completely dry but maintained a low chance (20%) through midnight for a few showers. We still have a backdoor cold front moving in from the northeast over the next few hours. The latest HRRR shows an area of scattered showers between 01Z and 05Z, along and just ahead of this front. With that in mind kept these shower chances in for a few hours, but removed any mention of thunder. Lows remain in the 70s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... As of 4 PM Tuesday...High pressure over Maine will control our weather Wednesday. A much drier airmass will translate into a dry day with highs in the 90s and comfortable dewpoints in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 4 AM Tue...Atms stabilizes behind today`s convection and temps/RH`s become much more tolerable with near-climo temps expected Wed-Thu. Hot and humid Fri ahead of cold front and deep trough. Cooler and much drier behind the front second half of the weekend to early next week. Wednesday night through Thursday...The heat ridge should get knocked down mid week as instability works westward behind MCS or convective activity that happens today. Temps/TD`s will drop respectively, and conditions back to near climo with highs in generally 85-90 and lows upr 60s to lowr 70s. Friday...14/00Z global model suite in good agreement on synoptic pattern, with amplifying ridge in the ctrl CONUS and respective digging trough across the ern CONUS. This will drive a strong cold front through ENC by Friday night. Ahead of it will be the next chc of thunderstorms for the area. The question is how much moisture is available with the front, and thus retained 30-40% pops in the fcst. Atms should become quite warm and unstable, with fcst CAPES aoa 3000 J/KG and deep layer shear (30-40kt) sufficient for severe thunderstorms. Again, moisture availability is the question at this time, so will have to monitor model trends through the week. Highs Friday will soar back into the mid 90s interior with mid/upr 80s beaches. Saturday through Monday...Aforementioned front will be off the coast by Sat, setting the stage for a much more comfortable air mass with TD`s falling into the 50s to low 60s for most folks this weekend, esp by Sunday when thicknesses are at their lowest. Highs will be in the 80s, with lows in the 60-65 degree range, or possible a touch cooler. This would be around 5 degrees below climo. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday night/... As of 800 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions expected through the end of the TAF period. Broken mid level clouds between 5kft and 10kt will rule the TAFS overnight as a cold front passes through. Earlier guidance had suggested a brief window of MVFR cigs behind the front toward daybreak, but this remains too unlikely to include in the TAFS. Instead expected VFR conditions through Wednesday with light winds overnight, backing into the northeast at least than 10 kts Wednesday, behind the front. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/... As of 4 AM Tue...Mainly VFR through the pd as high pres will generally be in control. Next cold front set to move through late Friday, with showers/storms possible ahead of the front Friday afternoon and evening. Dry high pres returns for the weekend. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/... As of 8 PM Tuesday...A cold front will move through the waters this evening, shifting winds from southwest to northwest with the passage. Overall winds will be 10 to 20 kts and we allowed the previous SCA to expire this evening. Winds behind the front will shift into the northeast Wednesday, at 10 to 20 kts with seas 2 to 3 feet. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/... As of 4 AM Tue...Back door cool front will bring nerly breezes to the waters and sounds on Wed, with speeds generally 5-15 kt, and seas will be 3-4 ft. Winds turn erly Wed night, then veer further to serly on Thu, though speeds should generally only be 10 kt or less. Seas subside further to 2-3 ft. Winds turn swrly and inc to 15 kt or higher Thu night and last into late Friday as gradient increases due to approaching cold front. Seas increase to to 3-4 ft, with some 5 ft sets developing by early Fri evening. Cold front passes Friday night with winds turning north for Sat. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...EH SHORT TERM...EH LONG TERM...SK/TL AVIATION...EH/TL MARINE...EH/TL
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
933 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak back door cold front will move through portions of central NC tonight. High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic will remain in place through Thursday. A cold front will move through the area late Friday and early Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 933 PM Tuesday... Water vapor imagery this evening depicts continued northwesterly flow aloft across central NC. At the surface, observational analysis showed a backdoor cold front draped along a line extending from KTDF southeast towards KGSB with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s behind the front. This front could induce some scattered showers through early tomorrow morning as it progresses westward. Decided to lean heavily on the HRRR tonight as it did the best job depicting today`s lack of convection across the area. With that in mind, updated POPs tonight to focus moreso along the I-95 corridor where showers may be possible through midnight or so. Forecast soundings in this vicinity depict ~300 to 400 J/kg of SBCIN tonight, which will likely inhibit any convective activity if anything develops at all. Otherwise, some guidance suggests that stratus may develop across the region early tomorrow morning. Lastly, another muggy night is on tap with lows in the upper 60s (far NE) to lower 70s (elsewhere). && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Tuesday... There is a Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms again on Wednesday mainly for the western portion of the forecast area. As the sub tropical ridge continues to influence the area, any MCV that develops in the afternoon could trigger some stronger convection as the ridge pulls warm moist air into the region. Skies will be party cloudy which will help with temperatures stay in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices are expected to stay below heat advisory criteria, but everyone should still be cautious of the heat. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 115 PM Tuesday... Thursday and Friday... temperatures will remain around 10 degrees above normal with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the low 70s. A cold front that will move across the the OH valley and into the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday will bring a chance of showers and storms during the morning to the Triad before spreading eastward by the afternoon and continue into the evening and overnight hours. As the front pushes east of the area Friday morning, expect a few lingering scattered showers and storms Friday afternoon especially areas along and east of the US1 corridor. Saturday through Tuesday... As the cold front exits the region high pressure will build in from the NW and bring cooler and drier air. Highs for the weekend will be in the mid 80s NW to upper 80s and some low 90s SE. Saturday night temperatures will drop down into the upper 50s NW to low 60s everywhere else. As high pressure slowly moves offshore Monday and Tuesday, temperatures early next week will climb back into the mid and upper 90s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 743 PM Tuesday... Through 00Z Thursday: Currently we`re seeing a mixture of mainly mid and high clouds which are remnants of earlier convection. Look for mainly VFR conditions to continue through the night, however it`s worth noting that some of the guidance suggests a brief period of MVFR cigs could develop a few hours either side of sunrise. Once any MVFR cigs lift after sunrise, look for VFR conditions to continue through the rest of the 24 hour TAF period. The exception may be near KINT/KGSO, where some of the CAMs suggest another batch of tstms may drop south out of SW VA late in the TAF period. However, confidence in that happening is too low attm for inclusion in the TAFs. After 00Z Thursday: Generally VFR conditions are expected through much of the long term period. The exception may be late Thursday through mid-day Friday when another round of shower/tstms are possible with the passage of a cold front. && .CLIMATE... (Corrected). Upcoming record highs for climate sites: Tue June 14 Wed June 15 FAY 100 101 GSO 98 97 RDU 97 99 Upcoming record high minimums for climate sites: Tue June 14 Wed June 15 FAY 75 76 GSO 71 73 RDU 76 76 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kren NEAR TERM...Luchetti SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...CA CLIMATE...Badgett