Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/14/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 .DISCUSSION...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Key Messages: - Heat for Tuesday - Severe Thunderstorm Risk Mainly Wednesday TUESDAY: Ridge builds in impressively strong on Tuesday with model consensus of warm front quickly shifting northward. Veering winds to more favored warm up pattern should push temperatures and dew points upward with impressive +27C 850 temperatures and strong capping in mid levels. Hoping breezy southwest winds will provide some relief but many locales will be in the upper 90s to 107 range for heat index falling squarely in the advisory realm. While record daytime highs likely safe, we could see some record warm minimums, especially Tuesday night. As cap weakens Tuesday night, could see convective development ahead of front to the west. Steep lapse rates and abundant CAPE will likely lead to storms southwest of area initially but could get into far western areas at some point. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Perhaps main threat time will be on Wednesday as upper trough begins to shift east. This will drive the short wave across the upper Midwest and push associated front east and south. MUCAPE /3000-4000 J/kg/ will remain locked up along and ahead of front with increasing moisture transport in response to approaching wave and precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches. Depending on how convection earlier in the day hampers sunshine and boundaries, could see airmass lead to healthy convective development going into Wednesday evening. This has better dynamics including increase in mid/upper level wind flow and related shear. Still some uncertainties but would not be surprised with an upgrade to convective outlook risk level. THURSDAY-MONDAY: After Wednesday night, passage of upper trough will put area more into a west to northwest upper flow and shunt hot and humid airmass off to the east and south. This should bring a very seasonal end to the week. Break down in ridge will be temporary though with flow advertised to greatly amplify again this weekend and early next week. Strong ridge could dominate nation`s midsection for a quiet stretch of weather with warm up again by late weekend. Of course there area always concerns that ridge could be more flattened allowing more of a convective threat along perimeter so will have to watch how this evolves. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 CIGS: mostly high/mid level scattered vfr conditions expected through the overnight/Tue...but latest fog/stratus satellite imagery showing some development of lower cigs across southeast MN into western WI. These could linger/impact the TAF sites into the overnight, although RAP trends suggest this saturation will push north with the approach of a warm front to the south. Will trend TAFs accordingly. BKN VFR cigs return Tue night, with some threat for MVFR overnight (associated with shra/ts). WX/vsby: Some MVFR BR currently associated with the developing MVFR cigs...which should push north with the lower cloud deck overnight. Potential vsby impacts to TAF sites into the overnight. Another round of storms later Tue night, with CAMS generally suggesting after 06z. Continued threat for more shra/ts Wed into Wed evening - with increased risk for severe. Winds: east southeast through the night. KLSE could decouple and go light while KRST hangs closer to 10 kts. LLWS a concern overnight with RAP/HRRR blowing south/southwest at 40/50kts. Will continue mention for both TAF locations. Winds will pick up and become more southerly by mid/late morning Tue. Gusts 30+ kts at KRST expected. A swing to more westerlies in the evening, along withe drop in speeds with loss of mixing. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ008>011-018- 019-029-030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shea AVIATION...Rieck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
857 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 842 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 A cold front is currently pushing south across the plains and will move into the Denver metro around 10 pm. Strong winds up to 50 mph with the front will be possible near the Wyoming border and up to 35 mph in the Denver area for a few hours this evening. Blowing dust could accompany the frontal passage and strong winds which could reduce visibility for a short period of time. Additionally, moisture ahead of the upper trough that is over southern Idaho is bringing some isolated showers to the western portions of the state and the higher terrain. Kept some pops in the forecast for the northern mountains for this but do not expect anything to make it onto the plains with continued upper level winds out of the southwest and the dry adiabatic mid-levels. For Tuesday, temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front with highs reaching into the mid-80s on the plains. Current HRRR smoke models have smoke moving south and out of the NE which will improve air quality. Increased dew points with some instability in the 300 to 700 j/kg range over the far eastern plains could bring some isolated storms Tuesday night east of a Limon to Sterling line. Some could be strong to severe with a decent amount of shear but could be battling as well. Will keep some light pops to account for this. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 213 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery showing a deep upper level trough over the Great Basin and Northern Rockies with strong southwest flow aloft over Colorado. There is an area of showers and a few storms over eastern Utah and western Wyoming behind a cold front. This activity will spread into northwest and north central Colorado this evening and continue overnight. Best chance for rain will be over the northern mountains from late evening to around sunrise Tuesday morning. Westerly downslope flow is expected to keep areas east of the mountains dry. Gusty north winds of 40-50 mph will accompany the cold front late this evening as it pushes south across eastern Colorado. For Tuesday, strong westerly flow aloft will prevail with the upper level trough now a closed low over the Northern Rockies. Gusty west winds are expected to prevail Tuesday. The downslope component and subsidence will keep most of the area dry. Cooler air moves into the area with highs in the lower to mid 80s across northeast Colorado. A low pressure trough forms over far eastern Colorado Tuesday afternoon. Dew points in the 40s, weak instability, and convergence along the trough could produce a few storms over far northeast Colorado mid to late afternoon. Elsewhere, a dry day is expected across the area. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 250 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 A weak shortwave will push across the northeast plains tomorrow night with a slight chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm. We`ll be mostly quiet during the day Wednesday as an upper ridge slowly tries to build back into the region. Highs should remain below 90, but should still be above normal for this time of the year. Ridging will continue to build on Thursday across the southern Great Plains with warmer weather returning for the area. Highs will make it above 90F across the plains. Moisture will slowly be working its way into the region during the afternoon, but guidance shows little in the way of any convective development. By Friday, an omega block will establish over the US, with deep troughs over the west and east coasts, while a 594dam ridge remains over Kansas. This will likely be the warmest day of the long term forecast period, with mid/upper 90s likely across the urban corridor and low 100s possible over the far eastern plains. With deep south-southwesterly flow aloft, we should see a surge of monsoonal moisture arriving with chances for storms increasing across the mountains. Moisture will remain in place this weekend as the approaching trough slowly shifts east and weakens. Both the GFS and ECM are in good agreement on well above normal precipitable water amounts... approaching 3-4 sigma (roughly 175-300% of normal). With modest instability likely across the high country, widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely. Less activity is forecast along and east of I-25 as the best moisture should remain closer to the continental divide. The best chance for rain will be Sunday over the high country and Monday for the plains. This pattern should break down early next week with drier weather returning by Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 602 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Smoke will continue to impact area terminals with reduced slantwise visibility. A circulation currently over the airport will bring variable winds to KDEN and KBJC through 02z with mostly southwest winds turning northeast with the passage of a cold front. Winds could gust as high as 35kts at KDEN and 30 by 06z at BJC with a little later at APA. Winds will continue to be an issue with another circulation impacting DEN with light southeast turning south then variable with speeds between 6 and 12kts. Winds will increase again by 21z Tuesday with gusting up to 30 kts possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 213 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Dry and windy conditions will prevail again Tuesday over much of the area, though it won`t be as hot. Westerly gusts up to 45 mph will be possible over the higher terrain with gusts to 35 mph on the plains. Green up will lower the threat of rapidly growing fires such that a Red Flag Warning was not issued. Dry and breezy conditions are likely Wednesday and Thursday, with gradually improving conditions this weekend into Monday. Though wind and RH may approach Red Flag criteria, no fire highlights are planned at this time with fuels OK. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Bowen SHORT TERM...Meier LONG TERM...Hiris AVIATION...Bowen FIRE WEATHER...Meier/Hiris
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1041 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Expect increasing warmth and humidity as we reach the middle of the week. Chances for thunderstorms will increase later Wednesday through Thursday as a strong cold front crosses the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Mid and high clouds are slowly trying to fill in from west to east across the area this evening from the thunderstorms in the Central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Clouds and light rain showers are having a hard time making it farther east than current position as the mid-levels of the atmosphere is pretty dry. This is resulting in showers over SW Ontario to scatter out with only sprinkles expected across WNY over the next few hours. Temps for most areas in the upper 50s to mid 60s this evening. Most of the area tonight will be dry with comfortable temps mainly in the 50s. We`ll continue to watch upstream across MI/IN/OH this evening as showers and thunderstorms there will eventually help develop a strong MCS that tracks east-southeast across Ohio following H85-H3 thickness lines and along edge of very strong instability due to strong hot ridge over central Plains. A few light showers may drift across western NY overnight. Better chance of rain, though still low, will be overnight over western Southern Tier as showers and embedded thunder to the northeast of expected MCS. Severe weather threat should remain south and west of our area where stronger low-mid level winds and greatest instability are located. This continues to line up with surrounding offices and SPC, WPC Day1 outlooks for severe and heavy rain. Take note though, nothing is set in stone even at this short lead time as models, including HRRR and other high-res CAMS, are scuffling in handling of current upstream convection which casts some doubt on how they project the convection later tonight. Trends of this upstream convection will have to be closely monitored into the late evening. On Tuesday, other than a small risk of a shower very early near NY/PA line, it looks mostly sunny. A bit warmer too, though still not that humid, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Northeast winds to north of warm front over Ohio Valley will again keep immediate Lake Ontario shoreline cooler in the 60s. Tuesday night starts off dry. The encroaching warm front and any shortwave diving southeast along eastern edge of approaching H85-H5 ridge and reservoir of instability could result in chance of showers or thunderstorms late western NY to Genesee Valley. Gradient in min temps follows the warm front with mid 50s east of Lake Ontario while increasingly muggy low 60s begin to creep into far western NY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A broad upper level trough-ridge pattern will lie across much of the Continental United States Wednesday, where the trough will surround a closed low centered over southern Saskatchewan and ridge will lie to its east across the Great Lakes. Initially Wednesday this pattern will mainly support surface high pressure overhead of the Northeast, though a warm front will be approaching New York from the southwest. This surface pattern will support plenty of warm air and moisture to advect into the region which will not only result in two pieces of notable weather: 1. sultry conditions and 2. chances for showers and storms. Looking further in the details for Wednesday. T sultry conditions, southerly winds will support a warm moist airmass to spill across the region and result in temperatures climbing up into the upper 80s to low 90s. Consequently, the warm air and additional moisture will support head indices in the low to mid 90s across far Western New York. Otherwise, the other main headliner for Wednesday will be showers and possible thunderstorms forming from the approaching warm front. With regards to storm severity, forecast uncertainty raises as the atmosphere in the low levels will be primed with the ingredients for deep moist convection (shear, lift, instability and moisture) but due to the upper level ridge overhead a cap will be placed in the lower levels, and therefore it will take for storms to form on a mesoscale boundary (i.e. lake breeze) to really take off. Also should note that given the underlying environment any storms that do take off will be more than capable to become severe. Showers and possible thunderstorms will then continue into Monday night as the warm front enters the region. Otherwise, muggy conditions will continue into the overnight hours with lows across Western New York and northern Finger Lakes ranging in the upper 60s to low 70s and the eastern Lake Ontario region only cooling off into the mid to upper 60s. Should note that these values will be the start of near record warm low temperatures for June 16th. Record low temperatures for June 16th at the three climate sites are: Buffalo 73/1944, Rochester 71/1876, and Watertown 71/1949. By Thursday morning, the trough aloft will become negatively tilted across eastern Manitoba and western Ontario, Canada pushing the now skinny ridge overhead of the Northeast. Meanwhile within the trough a subtle shortwave trough will be in the midst of rotating through, where at the surface a mature surface low will lie across western Ontario, Canada, extending a warm front across the Lower Great Lakes and a cold front shortly behind it. Similar to Wednesday, Thursday will be another sultry active weather day, with the main difference Thursday being the cap that was in place the day before from the ridge overhead will be much smaller due to the ridge now being displaced to the east. Therefore, with a limited cap and the atmosphere being primed with ample shear, instability, moisture and lift, expect a better chance of storms to become severe. Additionally should mention, modeled PWAT values continue to remain elevated and range between 1.5 to 1.75 inches across the region and therefore moderate to locally heavy rain will also be possible Thursday. Otherwise Thursday will be another warm day with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and heat indices across western New York and Genesee Valley climbing into the low to mid 90s. Thursday night, the cold front will exit east across the region. This will not only support chances of showers and thunderstorms to diminish from west to east but also allow a cooler air mass to spill across the region, dropping lows down into the 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The upper level trough axis overhead of the upper Great Lakes Thursday night will slide southeast across the Lower Great Lakes Friday, resulting in the surface low to slide southeast across northern New England and the Canadian maritimes. Consequently, its secondary cold front will sweep southeast across the area. Overall, wrap around moisture in combination with diurnal instability will support some showers and thunderstorms across the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. By the time the upper level trough reaches the East Coast Friday night, a broad ridge will span across the Central Plains. With the ridge to the west, surface high pressure will span across the Upper Midwest and into the Lower Great Lakes for the weekend and into the start of the next work week. Consequently this will support dry air to filter into the region Friday night through Monday. Otherwise, with the passage of the cold fronts late in the week and the upper level trough overhead, cooler air will filter in across the region returning temperatures to near normal with highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR through tonight. Still the potential for a few showers at JHW overnight as a strong thunderstorm complex tracks just to the southwest of western NY. Confidence too low to include thunder at JHW at this time. Tuesday...VFR. A slight chance of showers or thunderstorms early near the NY/PA line. Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR. A slight chance of showers or thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Thursday...VFR with areas of IFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers. Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Light winds and minimal wave action on the lakes most of the week. Next chance of stronger winds and building waves will be Thursday into Friday as strong cold front crosses the region. Main hazard most of the week will be potential for thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail and heavy rain. The greatest chances for thunderstorms on the waters will be overnight tonight near and south of Ripley, then Wednesday night through Thursday for all areas as the strong cold front crosses the region. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JLA NEAR TERM...JLA/SW SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...JLA/SW MARINE...JLA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
933 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A significant severe wind threat continues to be a possibility late this evening and overnight. Following tonight, weak high pressure will build for Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will move east across the area on Thursday, followed by high pressure for Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 935 PM Update... Line of convection getting organized in NW OH, but the biggest issues could still be to come with the activity forming further northwest over Lake Michigan and west central Michigan. Will be watching this as it moves southeastward. CAMs suggesting a modest surge in the instability gradient to the northeast, and will keep the possibility of this activity reaching further east into the CWA. Previous Discussion... The threat for a potential significant severe wind and flash flooding event continues across the area for late this evening and overnight. A large area of the "hatched" significant wind outline in the current SPC SWODY1 outlook remains in place, with perhaps significant damaging wind gusts in excess of 75 mph possible. More details on the severe weather and flash flooding potential for late this evening and overnight will be discussed below. Recently of note, a cluster of storms has developed within the warm sector across southern IN this afternoon which, in general, is not being handled well by most hires models, except for the 12z ARW and 15Z RAP models. The anticipation is for this cluster of storms to quickly grow upscale into the first MCS of the day, traveling southeastwards across the lower OH Valley. This activity should, for the most part, skirt just to the south of our area through the rest of the afternoon and evening. The main show still awaits us in the Upper Midwest; specifically across WI this afternoon where a remnant MCV continues to produce prolific lightning and maintain cold cloud tops. On the southern end of this MCV is where an overlap between strong instability and shear, on the order of 50 to 55 knots, resides. Activity is beginning to blossom on the southern end of this MCV, noted by IR sampled cloud top temperatures in excess of -80 degrees C, and is expected to ride the generally NW to SE instability gradient through the rest of the afternoon, evening, and into the overnight hours. This instability gradient currently extends from southern WI, through south-central MI, and along the lakeshore of northern OH. Thus, the expectation is for a severe convective complex to arrive across NW OH/northern OH sometime between 10 PM and 2 AM, tracking southeast across the region and exiting shortly before sunrise. The heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat also remains apparent for late this evening and overnight. Some models suggest several rounds of heavy thunderstorm activity, residing within an exceptionally moist airmass with PWATs in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range. Current forecast rainfall totals do not represent the scope of the flash flooding threat given the uncertainty on location of the possible convective complex/s. It is entirely possible for some areas to quickly receive 2 to 3 to locally higher amounts of 4 inches of rain in a very short period of time. Finally, have let the excessive heat watch continue across NW OH at this time, given uncertainty on the timing and location of the convective complexes tonight. The general thinking is that we will need at least a heat advisory for much of NW OH tomorrow (Tuesday). && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Large upper level high pressure is expected to become situated over the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning. A strong flow of hot air and very high dewpoint air will surge northeast through the Middle Mississippi Valley region into the eastern Great Lakes. Dewpoint temperatures are scheduled to rise into the middle 70s for the local area by Wednesday with 850 MB temperatures climbing to the lower 20s C during the day Wednesday. Model soundings support a fairly dry profile throughout the column Wednesday as dry slot slips into the local area. This will allow air temperatures to become quite warm. Some record high temperatures for Wednesday are in the low 90s and potential exists for some of these records to fall. Heat watch remains in effect for the western portions of the forecast area at this time. Temperatures are expected to be quite warm Wednesday night well ahead of a cold front progged to shift east toward the area. Timing of the front places it just west of the forecast area by 12Z Thursday morning. The cold front sweeps east Thursday across the area and should bring a break to the warm temperatures by later in the day. Highs still expected to top out in the lower to middle 90s across the area. Increasing instability ahead of the cold front should support a threat for showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Upper level trough and reinforcing cold front could support a lingering threat for showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening but gradually ending from west to east. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A rapidly amplifying upper level ridge expected to be over the Central Plains states by Thursday afternoon should shift east over the Mississippi Valley region by Sunday. Surface high pressure building southeast through central Ontario, Canada will then force a return southerly flow of air back to the local area late Saturday into Saturday night. A gradual surge of warmer air will then follow the warm front and gradually increase surface temperatures through the weekend into Monday. Otherwise, forecast area should remain predominantly dry across the area during this forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Aviation forecast in the first 12 hours is completely dependent on the upstream formation of thunderstorms. Still have a threat for a significant complex of storms to develop and move in from the northwest, but timing and which sites will take the direct hit still remain a bit of a question mark. Once the complex becomes organized, many questions will be answered in this respect. The potential for very strong winds exists, and will update TAFs accordingly when this is resolved. IFR should be expected at the onset of the storm complex. AMDs likely for improving timing. Outlook...Non-VFR possible again Wednesday night through Friday morning with showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds are expected to remain primarily light and less than 10 knots through much of this forecast period. The exception will be tonight as a thunderstorm complex is progged to move southeast across the area. Main threats could be strong thunderstorm winds, large hail, there is also the possibility for tornadic waterspouts. The thunderstorms complex is expected to move southeast across the area and be out of the area tomorrow morning. Small craft advisories are not anticipated through the period but special marine warnings may be needed later tonight. && .CLIMATE... Parts of the area may approach record high temperatures on Wednesday. Here are the records for area climate sites for June 15: Climate site Record (year) Akron area 94 (1925) Cleveland area 97 (1954) Erie area 91 (1991) Mansfield area 94 (1925) Toledo area 96 (1994) Youngstown area 93 (1994) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for OHZ003-006-017. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn/26 SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...26 MARINE...Lombardy CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
938 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 .MARINE...Southerly low level jet will increase to 30-35 knots over the coastal waters tonight. Latest CONSShort and HRRR show winds increasing to around 20 knots over the Gulf waters through most of the night. Expanded the SCA for all of the Gulf waters until 10Z Tuesday. SCEC conditions will occur over the bays. SCA may need to be extended into the daytime for portions of the Gulf, but will let midnight shift determine that. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 714 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022/ AVIATION...00Z TAFs VFR conditions along with strong and gusty southeast winds will continue this evening under cirrus clouds over south Texas. Hazy conditions will continue over the coastal region with reduced vsbys to 6 SM at times this evening. MVFR ceilings will be possible between 04-08Z along the coast as low level southerly jet increases to 35-40 knots. Winds will remain elevated over the coastal region overnight. With lighter winds inland, low level wind shear is expected at ALI/COT from 08-14Z. MVFR ceilings will become prevalent over the coastal plains from 08-14Z. Conditions will improve to VFR around 14Z with strong southerly winds mixing to the surface. Winds will turn southeast in the afternoon with gusts over 30 knots at CRP. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)... The upper trough over the region appears to have a structure that is similar to, and appears to behave like, a TUTT low, with a vorticity maximum at 250mb (center of 250mb low SW of BRO), and with associated convection early this morning east of the low. Deterministic runs move this system toward the NW during the period, which will place the SERN CWA/adjacent Waters under the SE quadrant if this system Tuesday night, along with the associated increase in PWAT values from 1.75 to 2 inches. Anticipate isolated convection to develop near the coast/offshore during the 06-12z Wednesday period. Otherwise, the upper ridge to the NE will remain quasi-stationary during the period per deterministic output, while disturbances move across the Rockies. The RFD issued for the WRN CWA for today is verifying with Elevated fire weather conditions. Will allow the RFD to expire at 01z Wednesday. Although breezy conditions expected to continue to around 04z, expect relative humidity values to no longer meet Elevated criterion by 01z Wednesday. Current SPS for maximum Heat Index values 105-109F verifying this afternoon. Expect 105-109F maximum Heat Index values again Tuesday. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)... The inverted trough will continue to exit to the northwest Wednesday as the mid-level ridge builds in from the east. There is potential for a few showers to develop underneath the cap Wednesday morning, but will expect any activity to wane as the day progresses. Surface low pressure across Colorado and surface high pressure across the southeast US will maintain persistent onshore flow as well as moisture in the boundary layer. These events combined will maintain hot and humid conditions through the week and into the weekend for South Texas. Long-term models do pick up on a shortwave that will trek east on the southern periphery of the ridge this weekend which may increase moisture and potentially bring showers and/or thunderstorms for portions of South Texas, especially toward the Victoria Crossroads. Model trends with respect to the Saharan dust continue to show the dust to remain in the region through the week. This will lead to hazy skies as well as air quality concerns, especially for sensitive groups. Find more information on air quality from the Texas Commission of on Environmental Quality. With the full moon approaching and models showing increased swell periods, will need to continue to monitor the potential for minor coastal flooding along the gulf-facing beaches mid-week, mainly Wednesday. At this time, P-ETSS and ETSS still show trends to remain just below coastal flood criteria, but will continue to monitor trends in the coming days. MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory issued earlier today for the southern bays/southern nearshore waters is verifying with most recent sustained surface wind 20kt at BABT2, IRDT2, and PACT2. The strong MSLP gradient that developed in response to lower MSLP pressure over the Rio Grande, should relax significantly by 03z Wednesday. Deterministic HiResW- FV3, GFS, and RAP runs suggest sustained 20 kt wind over the coastal waters 00-12z Wednesday. However, will maintain a Small Craft Exercise Caution. As mentioned above, an apparent TUTT low may contribute to at least isolated showers 06-12z Wednesday. Will maintain Hazy conditions tonight through Tuesday night, given the NASSA/GMAO output. Moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow is expected to continue through Wednesday. Hazy conditions will continue this week in response to Saharan dust. The flow will become weak to moderate Thursday and Friday before a gradual strengthening trend over the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 92 79 93 78 / 0 0 10 10 0 Victoria 78 96 78 95 76 / 0 0 10 10 0 Laredo 79 101 79 100 77 / 0 0 10 0 0 Alice 77 97 77 97 75 / 0 0 10 10 0 Rockport 82 93 82 93 81 / 0 0 10 10 0 Cotulla 79 104 79 101 76 / 0 0 10 10 0 Kingsville 78 94 77 95 76 / 0 0 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 82 89 82 90 81 / 0 0 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Tuesday For the following zones: Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Tuesday For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM. && $$ TMT/89...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
659 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 ...Updated Aviation section... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 The main challenge in the forecast will be whether or not DDC sets an all time record high minimum temperature today. The current record is 81 degrees. So far, today`s minimum temperature is 83 degrees. The hot, windy airmass in place right now will continue through tonight and into Tuesday at DDC. In fact, the 25 to 35 mph sustained winds will not abate much at all after sunset, so this will keep the boundary layer fairly well mixed through the night, and the temperature will only slowly fall through the 90s this evening. If DDC manages to stay above 81 degrees through 0559Z (1259 AM CDT/1159 PM CST), the Dodge City long-term climate station will establish a new all-time record high minimum temperature. It certainly appears this has a rather high probability of occurring, as the official forecast calls for a 06Z temperature of 85 degrees at DDC. The only obstacle to reaching this record would be thunderstorm outflow. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the leeside trough axis, however it does not appear coverage of storms will be enough to generate much in the way of a cold pool, and most storms are expected to remain northwest of DDC this evening. Given the significant temperature-dewpoint spreads of 45+ degrees, isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main risk. As mentioned, tonight will remain very windy, keeping temperatures up much of the night, although the 850mb temperatures will be dropping off slightly by 06-12Z time frame vs. this morning, so low temperatures Tuesday morning will likely be a touch lower than this morning most locations, although it really won`t feel like it. The advancing cold front tomorrow will reach west central KS by afternoon before slowing down and eventually stalling out. The front is expected to stall out north of GCK-DDC line, so much of the forecast area will see highs in the lower 100s again. Low level convergence along the front will likely be strong enough to support thunderstorm development, and we will carry some 20-30 POPs up in the northern counties Tuesday evening. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Western Kansas will not see much of a break from the heat, although Wednesday certainly looks like the "coolest" day of the forecast period with highs in the upper 80s north to mid 90s south (97 in the Red Hills). Mid level heights will be on the rise again as the next high develops over the Southern Plains with expanding influence across the Central Plains. This will result in the return to 100 degree heat by the weekend. Another upper level trough will develop out West by the weekend, but the intense ridge across the central CONUS will prevent this trough from advancing east toward the Central Plains. By early to mid next week, the Central Plains high will likely finally break down enough, allowing another polar front down toward Kansas, but at Day+7 to +9 in the forecast, this is all very much uncertain. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Scattered cumulus can be found along and east of a Garden City to Liberal line. Some of the HREF CAM members, namely the more robust ARW and nested NAM, develop high based convection with convective thunderstorm outflow early this evening, disrupting the ambient gusty southelry winds in the model fields. However the said models had that activity ongoing already by 22 z - which is not currently occurring per the latest GOES and KDDC 88D radar observations. Looks like most of the CAMS are over convecting this evening, at least in this DDC area of responsibility while the far less robust HRRR has the best handle on the trend for this evening with it`s dry solution. Look for a cold front to approach the area by the noon hour Tuesday, turning winds westerly and ramping down the winds gusts and sustained speeds as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 78 101 68 93 / 10 10 10 0 GCK 75 101 62 91 / 20 10 10 0 EHA 74 102 62 94 / 10 0 10 0 LBL 75 102 67 94 / 20 0 10 0 HYS 78 97 64 87 / 10 20 20 0 P28 79 99 76 97 / 10 0 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
646 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Monday/ Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Forecast Highlights: - Hot and humid through tonight, again Tuesday with Heat Advisories remaining - Windy Tuesday - Active weather returns Tuesday evening through Wednesday, with chance for strong to severe storms A broad upper level ridge continues to slide east across the Central Plains/Midwest today, followed by a deepening trough over the Pacific Northwest. Convection with a few severe warned storms occurred across mainly northeastern Iowa with the lingering MCS this morning, which have now moved on across much of Wisconsin. A low pressure system remains stationary over eastern Nebraska/Kansas, with the warm front draped mainly across northern Iowa into southern Minnesota. Cloud cover largely ascended to the north with any lingering storms, with some lingering mid to upper level clouds this afternoon across central to southern Iowa. This clearing as expected has added to increase heating across the area with insolation reaching the surface, with temperatures in the upper 80s through the mid 90s for most and dewpoints largely in the low 70s. With the lingering clouds over the northeastern parts of the state, temperatures have been struggling to increase, which will likely cause highs across this portion of the state to barely make it through the 80s given that peak temperatures will occur shortly given time of day. Mid to low level southwesterly flow will continue through this afternoon and tonight with strong warm air advection and LLJ. 850 temperatures from the NAM and RAP models continue to trend on quite appreciable values above 25 to 30 C into the evening. Therefore, no changes to the Heat Advisory were made as the trends are headed in the right direction over the issued counties, which will continue until 7pm tonight. The upper Midwest will remain under the influence of the upper ridge overnight through at least Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures overnight will be some of the warmest this year, possibly reaching records for some areas as values are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s. Considering the aforementioned 850 temperatures, guidance suggest these will not be as big as an influence Tuesday as the thermal ridge breaks down through the peak heating hours, with values only slightly less compared to Monday in the mid to upper 20s C. Windy conditions are expected through the afternoon Tuesday as the mixing layer deepens into near 850-800mb through the day. Winds are expected to largely range between 20 to 30 knots after sunrise through the late afternoon, before calming into the evening. GFS and NAM model soundings depict values upwards of 35-40 knots at the top of the mixed layer, which could easily mix down given that skies will mainly be mostly sunny. Wind Advisory criteria may be close but have decided to not issue at this time given some uncertainty and will depend on how conditions set up through the day. Given the mentioned factors above, temperatures are still on track to reach into the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, though the axis of higher temperatures will be more centered on the southeastern half of the state. Overall will continue with the Heat Advisory that the mid shift issued across the CWA from 11am through 7pm. A mid-level low pressure system will continue to strengthen with the deepening trough into Tuesday evening as it tracks into the Northern Great Plains. Low level winds will make a shift into Tuesday evening ahead of a cool front associated with the low pressure entering the region. The next chance for more active weather comes with this system, with showers and storms expected Tuesday evening through Wednesday. There is some model discrepancy when it comes to timing, as the NAM has a slightly later start after 06z Tuesday over the western portions of the state while the GFS shows and earlier start after 00z. The HREF members in comparison are not much better currently, as disagreement also exists. Overall this system looks to come in two waves: the first one being Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon and then Wednesday evening into early Thursday, though will both be driven by the advancing cold front. With the first round, MUCAPE values around 2500-3000 J/kg with wind shear values between 35-40 knots could produce some larger hail and severe wind gusts, though this could be largely elevated through the morning with the inversion in place overnight. The SPC in recent updates today upgraded most of the CWA as a slight risk, which is also in place Wednesday as well. These storms based on guidance look to mainly impact the northwestern the central parts of Iowa. The second round will likely occur in the late afternoon to evening Wednesday, where temperatures out ahead of the front in the upper 80s to 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s will provide ample instability over mainly the southeastern half of Iowa. MUCAPE values above 3500 J/kg with shear values between 30-40 knots are concerning for severe potential, with large hail and damaging winds looking to be the main threat. If supercells become organized along the cold front, a tornado threat may also be in place. Will continue to closely monitor as more details come into focus. WPC guidance over the bulk of the event suggest higher rainfall totals over central and northern Iowa, with totals up to a half inch to inch over much of the area. Given the slow moving cold front impacting the area over this period of time, could cause some hydro concerns as well. Lingering showers with weakening storms may continue early Thursday, drying out with another buonday Morning Max Low Temperatures: Lamoni (73, 1994)ilding thermal ridge over the western CONUS. This will help reinforce the warming trend earlier in the week, with highs through the rest of the week largely in the mid 80s to low 90s, along with mainly dry weather at this time. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening/ Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Cumulus clouds are moving across northern Iowa this evening. The bases of these have improved to MVFR, and will continue to improve to VFR over the next few hours. The cloud cover itself also appears to be mixing out, which will remove the ceilings this evening. The main issue will be low-level wind shear during the overnight hours. Tuesday afternoon, wind gusts at the surface around 30 kts will be possible. Rain showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast late on Tuesday, but most chances are outside of the current 00z TAF period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Temperature records at risk of falling at our major climate sites Today/Tuesday: Monday Highs: Des Moines (99, 1886) Lamoni (95, 1963) Ottumwa (98, 1987) Tuesday Morning Max Low Temperatures: Des Moines (75, 1994) Waterloo (75, 1994) Mason City (73, 1994) Ottumwa (77, 1981) Lamoni (77, 1981) Tuesday Highs: Waterloo (99, 1987) Ottumwa (99, 1987) Lamoni (96, 1987) && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ004>006-015-016- 023>025-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ007-017- 026>028. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bury/Fowle AVIATION...Krull
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
808 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 802 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Have allowed the blowing dust advisory to drop off across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado at 8PM MDT. However, a thick plume of smoke from fires across Arizona continue to impact the air quality, visibility, and ceilings across the Western Slope. Have made adjustments to account for areas of dense smoke across the Four Corners region, stretching northeast over the Gunnison Basin and Roaring Fork River Valley this evening. Please, heed to air quality alerts and guidance issued by Colorado Department of Health. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 219 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Local observations and webcams tell the story this afternoon with widespread gusts of 35 to over 50 mph being reported across the region. As expected, deep mixing has tapped into the stronger winds aloft thanks to the jet stream moving overhead. Along with this mixing, an approaching trough/surface cold front has tightened the surface pressure gradient which is also helping to cause those gusty winds. The High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect through later this evening for obvious reasons. Latest satellite imagery shows plenty of smoke from Arizona moving into the area as well as some dust in northwest New Mexico moving to the northeast. Local webcams are already showing some drops in visibilities due to this dust in the Four Corners area (Blanding, UT airport is reporting varying visibilities from 1 to 2 1/2 miles) and expect this trend to continue for the remaining southern valleys through the evening hours. Went ahead and issued a blowing dust advisory for the southern valleys from SE UT eastward to Pagosa Springs for those reduced visibilities through 8PM. The worst conditions are expected along the border of UT/AZ and CO/NM. Looking west, the cold front is just about to enter our CWA and as it does, a few showers/storms are possible along the front where the best lift will be located. Both the HRRR and NAMNEST do show a slight uptick in convective intensity as the front moves through this evening...again mainly for the northern valleys. Some showery precip will linger overnight for those same areas into the northern mountains but coverage will be limited. Any convection that fires will have the ability to bring some strong winds to the surface...possibly reaching 60 mph, it not a bit higher. If you haven`t brought loose objects from outside in, now would be a good time. Areas to the south will see winds subside heading into the evening and late evening hours. By tomorrow morning, the front will have pushed well to our east allowing much cooler air to move in. Triple digit highs? Naah, look for daytime highs to be about 5 degrees below seasonal averages while from the San Juans south, highs will be right around their usual average. Some clouds will linger north of the I-70 corridor and central mountains in the morning hours before mostly sunny skies become predominant across the CWA. Some gusty winds will occur again tomorrow but should be on the order of 25 to 35 mph with stronger winds closer to the Continental Divide. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 219 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Models are consistent with a shortwave trough rotating under the main low along the Canadian Border Tuesday night, reinforcing the cooler morning low temperatures that will be five to ten degrees below normal. Look for Wednesday to start with lows 45 to 50 degrees in the lower valleys and 35 to 45 degrees in the higher mountain valleys. As the low pressure system kicks northeast into the Hudson Bay area Thursday, a ridge moves in from the west to warm the region 10 to 15 degrees by Friday. Models consistently indicate a deep trough dropping south along the Pacific Coast Friday and the high pressure over the Southeastern States shifting west of the Mississippi River to put the Southwestern States and Rockies up into Colorado under a southerly flow to pull the moisture north out of northern Mexico in a monsoon-like flow. This isn`t a true monsoon as the pressure gradient is partially due to the trough to the west that will pass to the east cutting off the tap to the moisture. Look for dew points to rise into the upper 40`s and low 50`s Friday afternoon through Monday morning before the trough moves east across the region, sweeping the moisture out of the area. Expect showers and thunderstorms across the southern and central Colorado mountains Friday afternoon, spreading across all of the eastern Utah and Western Colorado region Saturday and Sunday before being swept out of the area Monday. Much of the area will see wetting rain with the mountains, particularly the San Juans getting the most rain. Behind the trough, a zonal flow will dry out the area for a few days, but guidance is showing the high pressure will stay in place over Oklahoma and Arkansas, hinting of a possible early monsoonal pattern. Confidence in this is low at this point, so stay tuned to see how this develops. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Cold front currently draped along a line north of Green River to Meeker and Steamboat will continue to push south and east this evening. Do expect the boundary to slow down over the next few hours, as these boundaries typically get `hung up` along the Roan Cliffs and Flat Tops. Line of convective activity trailing behind the surface boundary will take a more easterly track impacting TAF sites along and north of the I-70 corridor this evening. Showers may temporarily drop ceilings below ILS break points as they move through and locally enhance surface gusts. South, blowing dust and smoke from AZ fires will continue to impact visibility and lower ceilings at KDRO, KTEX, KMTJ and KGUC. Plume will continue to push east and be truncated south as the cold front approaches from the north. Though, the front will weaken over night as it sags southeast, and will eventually cross over the southern portion of the region by mid Tuesday morning. Strong westerly winds move in over in the cold front`s wake, so expect afternoon gusts to ramp back up, though about 20 kts weaker than experienced today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Strong southwest winds are occurring as deep mixing are tapping into the jet stream aloft while an approaching cold front is causing a tightening of the surface pressure gradient. Strong winds are being reported across the area resulting in extreme fire behavior. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through 11 pm this evening for all Fire Zones where fuels remain critical. Even though cooler temperatures will follow tomorrow, conditions will remain dry and breezy resulting in critical fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Colorado. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect as gusts look to be in the 30 to 40 mph range for portions of southwest Colorado, particularly the higher elevations across the San Juans and central mountains, including the Gunnison Basin. Winds are a bit lower with gusts around 30 mph for the lower elevations of west- central and southwest Colorado, but relative humidity remains in the single digits so those areas also remain in a Red Flag Warning for Tuesday as well. Critical fire weather conditions are looking more marginal and not as widespread in terms of wind gusts reaching criteria for eastern Utah so opted not to issue anything for Tuesday for those zones. Wednesday, some pockets of localized critical fire weather conditions are possible for the central-eastern and southern zones. As of this afternoon, coverage and borderline winds look marginal at best so held off on any fire weather highlights. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-203- 207-290>295. High Wind Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for COZ001-002- 006>008-011-014-020>022. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ203-207- 290>295. Wind Advisory until 11 PM MDT this evening for COZ003-005-009- 017-023. UT...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for UTZ487-490-491. High Wind Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-024- 027-029. Wind Advisory until 11 PM MDT this evening for UTZ028. && $$ UPDATE...ERW SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...TGJT FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
812 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 812 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Radar this evening shows one lonely shower has been able to pop up in Fentress County in association with a shortwave trough moving southeast across Kentucky. Despite the extreme instability present on our 00Z sounding with MLCAPE over 4000 J/Kg, substantial MLCIN also exists so I`m not expecting this shower to last much longer. Latest HRRR model runs show a few piddly mid- level showers could also occur late tonight over our far eastern counties, but too uncertain to include a precip chance for this potential. Otherwise, heat advisory definitely verified today with most areas seeing heat indicies peaking in the 105-110 range. Since the upper ridge will be parked right overhead again tomorrow and low levels winds look to be weaker than today, we should be able to heat up a degree or two versus today`s readings. Therefore I went ahead and expanded the heat advisory eastward to include more of the Upper Cumberland counties for Tuesday, with only the highest Plateau counties left out. Only fly in the ointment is weaker capping tomorrow may allow for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms to develop on the Plateau in the afternoon as some guidance suggests, and this activity or its associated cloud cover could affect temps in the farthest eastern parts of the advisory. Made several adjustments to temps/dewpoints/apparent temps for tonight/tomorrow based on latest guidance, but otherwise forecast is generally on track. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 So, if you haven`t been outside, don`t. If you have to? Eesh. Heat Index values (or feels-like temperatures) are running 105-110 with one or two spots creeping to 111. This is the case for just about everyone west of the Cumberland Plateau. After speaking with Nashville OEM and ascertaining that at this point, there hasn`t been anything close to significant uptick in heat- related issues, I`m going to hold onto the Heat Advisory for today, abstaining from upping it to an Excessive Heat Warning. Similarly for tomorrow, expected Heat Index values should keep us in the Advisory category. My biggest concern regarding the heat is the idea that we`ll only cool into the upper 70s tonight, so there won`t be much in the way of relief over the next 48 hours. (See Climate section below) && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Rain chances are slim for awhile. Global models are trying to spark convection to our southeast and south tomorrow and Wednesday, but I`m having a hard time believing it`s going to affect us, given the overall strength of the ridge. I`ll carry a small afternoon/early evening PoP both days, but don`t be surprised if no one sees rain. Of course, if storms do fire up, there will be plenty of instability leading to at least a damaging wind threat. Again though, this is a very small chance. Where`s the relief? Well, it`s coming. Both the GFS and Euro show the passage of a weak front Thursday, which could do two things: increase rain chances that day (not greatly, but at least some, to limit some of the heat) AND we`ll see a *cool* down this weekend. Of course, that`s a relative phrase. Highs will fall back to the low 90s, if you consider that *cool*. Still a couple of degrees above normal. Upper ridging to our west next week could spell another bout of mid 90s just in time for the arrival of SUMMER. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 VFR conditions will prevail for the taf period. Winds will be at or below 5 kts overnight and increase to 5-10 kts out of the SW/WSW after 14z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 78 99 76 97 / 10 10 10 30 Clarksville 77 97 74 96 / 0 10 0 10 Crossville 72 90 72 90 / 10 20 10 30 Columbia 76 98 74 96 / 10 10 10 30 Cookeville 74 94 73 92 / 10 20 10 30 Jamestown 71 91 71 91 / 10 20 10 30 Lawrenceburg 75 96 73 95 / 10 10 10 30 Murfreesboro 76 98 74 97 / 10 10 10 30 Waverly 76 98 74 96 / 0 10 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for Bedford-Cannon- Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman- Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury- Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford- Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson- Wilson. && $$ UPDATE.......Shamburger SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Reagan
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
812 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 812 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Current surface analysis shows cold front slowly tracking east across far western SD right now. Line of showers and storms have developed and filled in along the front from eastern Harding County to Fall River County. Storm had stayed rather disorganized up until recently, but isolated storms along the front have started to become severe, with larger hail and gusty winds accompanying them. Storms are moving into a more favorable environment further east, so they could sustain themselves for a while, with additional stronger development possible. Latest runs of the HRRR are mostly focusing stronger storm potential with the expected activity across southwest SD over the next few hours as it moves northeastward. Locally heavy rainfall is also noted, especially over parts of northwest SD where storms are slower moving and training over some of the same areas. Severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 05z for western SD. Only minor adjustments have been made to the forecast for the rest of tonight at this point. Showers and storms will continue to shift east-northeast with the front tonight, with severe potential likely dissipating toward midnight. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Current surface analysis shows Pacific cold front stretching from eastern MT to eastern WY, with weak low pressure along the front across northeast WY. Upper level analysis shows trough across the western US, with low pressure across western MT. Strong upper jet is in place on the east side of the trough from southwest WY to eastern MT and far western ND. Low clouds have dissipated across much of the area, except for far northwest SD, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Regional radars show some storms have started to develop near the front from eastern MT to northeast WY. Temps range from the 70s over northern and western areas, where clouds lingered through the morning, to near 90 over south central SD. Humid conditions are in place across a good portions of the western and south central SD plains, with mid 60s to lower 70s dewpoints. One more late afternoon and evening of potentially active weather can be expected as the front pushes through the area. The main focus area for strong to severe storms looks to be from far northeast WY to the northern half of the Black Hills and northwest SD as stronger upper level support generally passes over those areas and is able to overcome weakening CIN in place late this afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE values to around 1000 j/kg are forecast for those areas late today, with strong shear supportive of supercell development. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats from severe storms, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out again from far northeast WY into northwest SD if a stronger storm gets going along the front. With precipitable water values 150 percent or more of average, locally heavy rain is also possible, especially if there is any training of storms. Further south and east, CAPE values increase with the warmer temps and increasing moisture. However, CIN is higher and storm development will be increasingly difficult the further south and east you go through the early evening, especially to the south and southeast of the Black Hills. Some activity could eventually develop and push through some of these areas with the front later this evening and into the overnight, but severe potential should gradually diminish with time. Upper trough will move further east across the northern Rockies and northern Plains Tuesday into Tuesday night. Front will be well east of the area Tuesday morning, with much cooler air and brisk winds in place. Highs will range from the 60s over northeast WY, the Black Hills, and northwest SD to near 80 over south central SD. Best chances for showers and a few storms on Tuesday will be across northern portions of the CWA, from far northeast WY to northwest SD. Chance for stronger storms looks minimal, with MUCAPE up to 500 j/kg and much weaker shear. As the upper trough finally starts to push northeast of the region later Tuesday night and Wednesday, a drier pattern will set up for a few days. Gusty winds will develop across northwest SD on Wednesday as tightening pressure gradient sets up to the north of the region. Cooler conditions will continue on Wednesday, then a warming trend takes place late week into the weekend as a high amplitude ridge builds over the region. Upper high is expected to set up over the central and southern Plains, with a period of hot weather over the weekend and possibly into early next week. Highs by the weekend should be in the 90s to near 100 across much of the plains, with 80s to near 90 over the Black Hills. Mainly dry conditions will likely continue through at least Saturday, but at least some slight chances for storms could return toward the latter half of the weekend or early next week if the ridge drifts further east and allows some shortwave energy in southwest flow to move across the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 542 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop during the evening hours, tracking from southwest to northeast across a good portion of northeast WY and western SD. A few storms could be severe with large hail and strong wind gusts. Areas of MVFR conditions are expected into the overnight hours. Activity will taper off in most areas overnight. A passing cold front will switch winds to the northwest, breezy for a period behind it. There will be chances for showers and a few storms on Tuesday, mainly across far northeast WY and northwest SD. Breezy west to northwest winds can be expected as well. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ Update...26 DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...26