Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/14/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
.DISCUSSION...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Key Messages:
- Heat for Tuesday
- Severe Thunderstorm Risk Mainly Wednesday
TUESDAY:
Ridge builds in impressively strong on Tuesday with model
consensus of warm front quickly shifting northward. Veering winds to
more favored warm up pattern should push temperatures and dew points
upward with impressive +27C 850 temperatures and strong capping in
mid levels. Hoping breezy southwest winds will provide some relief
but many locales will be in the upper 90s to 107 range for heat
index falling squarely in the advisory realm. While record daytime
highs likely safe, we could see some record warm minimums,
especially Tuesday night.
As cap weakens Tuesday night, could see convective development ahead
of front to the west. Steep lapse rates and abundant CAPE will
likely lead to storms southwest of area initially but could get into
far western areas at some point.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
Perhaps main threat time will be on Wednesday as upper trough begins
to shift east. This will drive the short wave across the upper
Midwest and push associated front east and south. MUCAPE /3000-4000
J/kg/ will remain locked up along and ahead of front with increasing
moisture transport in response to approaching wave and precipitable
water values exceeding 2 inches. Depending on how convection earlier
in the day hampers sunshine and boundaries, could see airmass lead
to healthy convective development going into Wednesday evening. This
has better dynamics including increase in mid/upper level wind flow
and related shear. Still some uncertainties but would not be
surprised with an upgrade to convective outlook risk level.
THURSDAY-MONDAY:
After Wednesday night, passage of upper trough will
put area more into a west to northwest upper flow and shunt hot and
humid airmass off to the east and south. This should bring a very
seasonal end to the week.
Break down in ridge will be temporary though with flow advertised to
greatly amplify again this weekend and early next week. Strong ridge
could dominate nation`s midsection for a quiet stretch of weather
with warm up again by late weekend. Of course there area always
concerns that ridge could be more flattened allowing more of a
convective threat along perimeter so will have to watch how this
evolves.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
CIGS: mostly high/mid level scattered vfr conditions expected
through the overnight/Tue...but latest fog/stratus satellite imagery
showing some development of lower cigs across southeast MN into
western WI. These could linger/impact the TAF sites into the
overnight, although RAP trends suggest this saturation will push
north with the approach of a warm front to the south. Will trend
TAFs accordingly. BKN VFR cigs return Tue night, with some threat
for MVFR overnight (associated with shra/ts).
WX/vsby: Some MVFR BR currently associated with the developing MVFR
cigs...which should push north with the lower cloud deck overnight.
Potential vsby impacts to TAF sites into the overnight. Another
round of storms later Tue night, with CAMS generally suggesting
after 06z. Continued threat for more shra/ts Wed into Wed evening -
with increased risk for severe.
Winds: east southeast through the night. KLSE could decouple and go
light while KRST hangs closer to 10 kts. LLWS a concern overnight
with RAP/HRRR blowing south/southwest at 40/50kts. Will continue
mention for both TAF locations. Winds will pick up and become more
southerly by mid/late morning Tue. Gusts 30+ kts at KRST expected. A
swing to more westerlies in the evening, along withe drop in speeds
with loss of mixing.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Shea
AVIATION...Rieck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
857 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
A cold front is currently pushing south across the plains and
will move into the Denver metro around 10 pm. Strong winds up to
50 mph with the front will be possible near the Wyoming border and
up to 35 mph in the Denver area for a few hours this evening.
Blowing dust could accompany the frontal passage and strong winds
which could reduce visibility for a short period of time.
Additionally, moisture ahead of the upper trough that is over
southern Idaho is bringing some isolated showers to the western
portions of the state and the higher terrain. Kept some pops in
the forecast for the northern mountains for this but do not expect
anything to make it onto the plains with continued upper level
winds out of the southwest and the dry adiabatic mid-levels.
For Tuesday, temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front
with highs reaching into the mid-80s on the plains. Current HRRR
smoke models have smoke moving south and out of the NE which will
improve air quality. Increased dew points with some instability in
the 300 to 700 j/kg range over the far eastern plains could bring
some isolated storms Tuesday night east of a Limon to Sterling
line. Some could be strong to severe with a decent amount of shear
but could be battling as well. Will keep some light pops to
account for this.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Water vapor satellite imagery showing a deep upper level trough
over the Great Basin and Northern Rockies with strong southwest
flow aloft over Colorado. There is an area of showers and a few
storms over eastern Utah and western Wyoming behind a cold front.
This activity will spread into northwest and north central
Colorado this evening and continue overnight. Best chance for rain
will be over the northern mountains from late evening to around
sunrise Tuesday morning. Westerly downslope flow is expected to
keep areas east of the mountains dry. Gusty north winds of 40-50
mph will accompany the cold front late this evening as it pushes
south across eastern Colorado.
For Tuesday, strong westerly flow aloft will prevail with the
upper level trough now a closed low over the Northern Rockies.
Gusty west winds are expected to prevail Tuesday. The downslope
component and subsidence will keep most of the area dry. Cooler
air moves into the area with highs in the lower to mid 80s across
northeast Colorado. A low pressure trough forms over far eastern
Colorado Tuesday afternoon. Dew points in the 40s, weak
instability, and convergence along the trough could produce a few
storms over far northeast Colorado mid to late afternoon.
Elsewhere, a dry day is expected across the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
A weak shortwave will push across the northeast plains tomorrow
night with a slight chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm.
We`ll be mostly quiet during the day Wednesday as an upper ridge
slowly tries to build back into the region. Highs should remain
below 90, but should still be above normal for this time of the
year. Ridging will continue to build on Thursday across the
southern Great Plains with warmer weather returning for the area.
Highs will make it above 90F across the plains. Moisture will
slowly be working its way into the region during the afternoon,
but guidance shows little in the way of any convective
development.
By Friday, an omega block will establish over the US, with deep
troughs over the west and east coasts, while a 594dam ridge
remains over Kansas. This will likely be the warmest day of the
long term forecast period, with mid/upper 90s likely across the
urban corridor and low 100s possible over the far eastern plains.
With deep south-southwesterly flow aloft, we should see a surge of
monsoonal moisture arriving with chances for storms increasing
across the mountains.
Moisture will remain in place this weekend as the approaching
trough slowly shifts east and weakens. Both the GFS and ECM are in
good agreement on well above normal precipitable water amounts...
approaching 3-4 sigma (roughly 175-300% of normal). With modest
instability likely across the high country, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are likely. Less activity is forecast along and
east of I-25 as the best moisture should remain closer to the
continental divide. The best chance for rain will be Sunday over
the high country and Monday for the plains. This pattern should
break down early next week with drier weather returning by
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 602 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Smoke will continue to impact area terminals with reduced
slantwise visibility. A circulation currently over the airport
will bring variable winds to KDEN and KBJC through 02z with mostly
southwest winds turning northeast with the passage of a cold
front. Winds could gust as high as 35kts at KDEN and 30 by 06z at
BJC with a little later at APA.
Winds will continue to be an issue with another circulation
impacting DEN with light southeast turning south then variable
with speeds between 6 and 12kts. Winds will increase again by 21z
Tuesday with gusting up to 30 kts possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Dry and windy conditions will prevail again Tuesday over much of the
area, though it won`t be as hot. Westerly gusts up to 45 mph will be
possible over the higher terrain with gusts to 35 mph on the plains.
Green up will lower the threat of rapidly growing fires such that a
Red Flag Warning was not issued.
Dry and breezy conditions are likely Wednesday and Thursday, with
gradually improving conditions this weekend into Monday. Though
wind and RH may approach Red Flag criteria, no fire highlights are
planned at this time with fuels OK.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Bowen
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Hiris
AVIATION...Bowen
FIRE WEATHER...Meier/Hiris
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1041 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect increasing warmth and humidity as we reach the middle of the
week. Chances for thunderstorms will increase later Wednesday
through Thursday as a strong cold front crosses the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid and high clouds are slowly trying to fill in from west to east
across the area this evening from the thunderstorms in the Central
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Clouds and light rain showers are
having a hard time making it farther east than current position as
the mid-levels of the atmosphere is pretty dry. This is resulting in
showers over SW Ontario to scatter out with only sprinkles expected
across WNY over the next few hours. Temps for most areas in the
upper 50s to mid 60s this evening.
Most of the area tonight will be dry with comfortable temps mainly
in the 50s. We`ll continue to watch upstream across MI/IN/OH this
evening as showers and thunderstorms there will eventually help
develop a strong MCS that tracks east-southeast across Ohio
following H85-H3 thickness lines and along edge of very strong
instability due to strong hot ridge over central Plains. A few light
showers may drift across western NY overnight. Better chance of
rain, though still low, will be overnight over western Southern Tier
as showers and embedded thunder to the northeast of expected MCS.
Severe weather threat should remain south and west of our area where
stronger low-mid level winds and greatest instability are located.
This continues to line up with surrounding offices and SPC, WPC Day1
outlooks for severe and heavy rain.
Take note though, nothing is set in stone even at this short lead
time as models, including HRRR and other high-res CAMS, are
scuffling in handling of current upstream convection which casts
some doubt on how they project the convection later tonight. Trends
of this upstream convection will have to be closely monitored into
the late evening.
On Tuesday, other than a small risk of a shower very early near
NY/PA line, it looks mostly sunny. A bit warmer too, though still
not that humid, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Northeast
winds to north of warm front over Ohio Valley will again keep
immediate Lake Ontario shoreline cooler in the 60s. Tuesday night
starts off dry. The encroaching warm front and any shortwave diving
southeast along eastern edge of approaching H85-H5 ridge and
reservoir of instability could result in chance of showers or
thunderstorms late western NY to Genesee Valley. Gradient in min
temps follows the warm front with mid 50s east of Lake Ontario while
increasingly muggy low 60s begin to creep into far western NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A broad upper level trough-ridge pattern will lie across much of the
Continental United States Wednesday, where the trough will surround
a closed low centered over southern Saskatchewan and ridge will lie
to its east across the Great Lakes. Initially Wednesday this pattern
will mainly support surface high pressure overhead of the Northeast,
though a warm front will be approaching New York from the southwest.
This surface pattern will support plenty of warm air and moisture to
advect into the region which will not only result in two pieces of
notable weather: 1. sultry conditions and 2. chances for showers and
storms.
Looking further in the details for Wednesday. T sultry conditions,
southerly winds will support a warm moist airmass to spill across
the region and result in temperatures climbing up into the upper 80s
to low 90s. Consequently, the warm air and additional moisture will
support head indices in the low to mid 90s across far Western New
York. Otherwise, the other main headliner for Wednesday will be
showers and possible thunderstorms forming from the approaching warm
front. With regards to storm severity, forecast uncertainty raises
as the atmosphere in the low levels will be primed with the
ingredients for deep moist convection (shear, lift, instability and
moisture) but due to the upper level ridge overhead a cap will be
placed in the lower levels, and therefore it will take for storms to
form on a mesoscale boundary (i.e. lake breeze) to really take off.
Also should note that given the underlying environment any storms
that do take off will be more than capable to become severe.
Showers and possible thunderstorms will then continue into Monday
night as the warm front enters the region. Otherwise, muggy
conditions will continue into the overnight hours with lows across
Western New York and northern Finger Lakes ranging in the upper 60s
to low 70s and the eastern Lake Ontario region only cooling off into
the mid to upper 60s. Should note that these values will be the
start of near record warm low temperatures for June 16th. Record low
temperatures for June 16th at the three climate sites are: Buffalo
73/1944, Rochester 71/1876, and Watertown 71/1949.
By Thursday morning, the trough aloft will become negatively tilted
across eastern Manitoba and western Ontario, Canada pushing the now
skinny ridge overhead of the Northeast. Meanwhile within the trough
a subtle shortwave trough will be in the midst of rotating through,
where at the surface a mature surface low will lie across western
Ontario, Canada, extending a warm front across the Lower Great Lakes
and a cold front shortly behind it. Similar to Wednesday, Thursday
will be another sultry active weather day, with the main difference
Thursday being the cap that was in place the day before from the
ridge overhead will be much smaller due to the ridge now being
displaced to the east. Therefore, with a limited cap and the
atmosphere being primed with ample shear, instability, moisture and
lift, expect a better chance of storms to become severe.
Additionally should mention, modeled PWAT values continue to remain
elevated and range between 1.5 to 1.75 inches across the region and
therefore moderate to locally heavy rain will also be possible
Thursday. Otherwise Thursday will be another warm day with highs in
the upper 80s and low 90s and heat indices across western New York
and Genesee Valley climbing into the low to mid 90s.
Thursday night, the cold front will exit east across the region.
This will not only support chances of showers and thunderstorms to
diminish from west to east but also allow a cooler air mass to spill
across the region, dropping lows down into the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper level trough axis overhead of the upper Great Lakes
Thursday night will slide southeast across the Lower Great Lakes
Friday, resulting in the surface low to slide southeast across
northern New England and the Canadian maritimes. Consequently, its
secondary cold front will sweep southeast across the area. Overall,
wrap around moisture in combination with diurnal instability will
support some showers and thunderstorms across the southern and
eastern portions of the forecast area.
By the time the upper level trough reaches the East Coast Friday
night, a broad ridge will span across the Central Plains. With the
ridge to the west, surface high pressure will span across the Upper
Midwest and into the Lower Great Lakes for the weekend and into the
start of the next work week. Consequently this will support dry air
to filter into the region Friday night through Monday.
Otherwise, with the passage of the cold fronts late in the week and
the upper level trough overhead, cooler air will filter in across
the region returning temperatures to near normal with highs in the
70s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through tonight. Still the potential for a few showers at JHW
overnight as a strong thunderstorm complex tracks just to the
southwest of western NY. Confidence too low to include thunder at
JHW at this time.
Tuesday...VFR. A slight chance of showers or thunderstorms early
near the NY/PA line.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR. A slight chance of showers or
thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Thursday...VFR with areas of IFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Saturday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Light winds and minimal wave action on the lakes most of the week.
Next chance of stronger winds and building waves will be Thursday
into Friday as strong cold front crosses the region.
Main hazard most of the week will be potential for thunderstorms
with gusty winds, hail and heavy rain. The greatest chances for
thunderstorms on the waters will be overnight tonight near and south
of Ripley, then Wednesday night through Thursday for all areas as
the strong cold front crosses the region.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLA
NEAR TERM...JLA/SW
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JLA/SW
MARINE...JLA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
933 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A significant severe wind threat continues to be a possibility late
this evening and overnight. Following tonight, weak high pressure
will build for Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will move east
across the area on Thursday, followed by high pressure for
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
935 PM Update...
Line of convection getting organized in NW OH, but the biggest
issues could still be to come with the activity forming further
northwest over Lake Michigan and west central Michigan. Will be
watching this as it moves southeastward. CAMs suggesting a
modest surge in the instability gradient to the northeast, and
will keep the possibility of this activity reaching further
east into the CWA.
Previous Discussion...
The threat for a potential significant severe wind and flash
flooding event continues across the area for late this evening
and overnight. A large area of the "hatched" significant wind
outline in the current SPC SWODY1 outlook remains in place, with
perhaps significant damaging wind gusts in excess of 75 mph
possible. More details on the severe weather and flash flooding
potential for late this evening and overnight will be discussed
below.
Recently of note, a cluster of storms has developed within the
warm sector across southern IN this afternoon which, in general,
is not being handled well by most hires models, except for the
12z ARW and 15Z RAP models. The anticipation is for this
cluster of storms to quickly grow upscale into the first MCS of
the day, traveling southeastwards across the lower OH Valley.
This activity should, for the most part, skirt just to the south
of our area through the rest of the afternoon and evening.
The main show still awaits us in the Upper Midwest; specifically
across WI this afternoon where a remnant MCV continues to
produce prolific lightning and maintain cold cloud tops. On the
southern end of this MCV is where an overlap between strong
instability and shear, on the order of 50 to 55 knots, resides.
Activity is beginning to blossom on the southern end of this
MCV, noted by IR sampled cloud top temperatures in excess of -80
degrees C, and is expected to ride the generally NW to SE instability
gradient through the rest of the afternoon, evening, and into
the overnight hours. This instability gradient currently extends
from southern WI, through south-central MI, and along the
lakeshore of northern OH. Thus, the expectation is for a
severe convective complex to arrive across NW OH/northern OH
sometime between 10 PM and 2 AM, tracking southeast across the
region and exiting shortly before sunrise.
The heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat also remains apparent
for late this evening and overnight. Some models suggest several
rounds of heavy thunderstorm activity, residing within an
exceptionally moist airmass with PWATs in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch
range. Current forecast rainfall totals do not represent the
scope of the flash flooding threat given the uncertainty on
location of the possible convective complex/s. It is entirely
possible for some areas to quickly receive 2 to 3 to locally
higher amounts of 4 inches of rain in a very short period of
time.
Finally, have let the excessive heat watch continue across NW OH
at this time, given uncertainty on the timing and location of
the convective complexes tonight. The general thinking is that
we will need at least a heat advisory for much of NW OH tomorrow
(Tuesday).
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Large upper level high pressure is expected to become situated over
the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning. A strong flow of hot air and
very high dewpoint air will surge northeast through the Middle
Mississippi Valley region into the eastern Great Lakes. Dewpoint
temperatures are scheduled to rise into the middle 70s for the local
area by Wednesday with 850 MB temperatures climbing to the lower 20s
C during the day Wednesday. Model soundings support a fairly dry
profile throughout the column Wednesday as dry slot slips into the
local area. This will allow air temperatures to become quite warm.
Some record high temperatures for Wednesday are in the low 90s and
potential exists for some of these records to fall. Heat watch
remains in effect for the western portions of the forecast area at
this time. Temperatures are expected to be quite warm Wednesday
night well ahead of a cold front progged to shift east toward the
area. Timing of the front places it just west of the forecast area
by 12Z Thursday morning. The cold front sweeps east Thursday across
the area and should bring a break to the warm temperatures by later
in the day. Highs still expected to top out in the lower to middle
90s across the area. Increasing instability ahead of the cold front
should support a threat for showers and thunderstorms Thursday.
Upper level trough and reinforcing cold front could support a
lingering threat for showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening but
gradually ending from west to east.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A rapidly amplifying upper level ridge expected to be over the
Central Plains states by Thursday afternoon should shift east over
the Mississippi Valley region by Sunday. Surface high pressure
building southeast through central Ontario, Canada will then force a
return southerly flow of air back to the local area late Saturday
into Saturday night. A gradual surge of warmer air will then follow
the warm front and gradually increase surface temperatures through
the weekend into Monday. Otherwise, forecast area should remain
predominantly dry across the area during this forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Aviation forecast in the first 12 hours is completely dependent
on the upstream formation of thunderstorms. Still have a threat
for a significant complex of storms to develop and move in from
the northwest, but timing and which sites will take the direct
hit still remain a bit of a question mark. Once the complex
becomes organized, many questions will be answered in this
respect. The potential for very strong winds exists, and will
update TAFs accordingly when this is resolved. IFR should be
expected at the onset of the storm complex. AMDs likely for
improving timing.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible again Wednesday night through Friday
morning with showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds are expected to remain primarily light and less than 10 knots
through much of this forecast period. The exception will be tonight
as a thunderstorm complex is progged to move southeast across the
area. Main threats could be strong thunderstorm winds, large hail,
there is also the possibility for tornadic waterspouts. The
thunderstorms complex is expected to move southeast across the area
and be out of the area tomorrow morning. Small craft advisories are
not anticipated through the period but special marine warnings may
be needed later tonight.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Parts of the area may approach record high temperatures on
Wednesday. Here are the records for area climate sites for June 15:
Climate site Record (year)
Akron area 94 (1925)
Cleveland area 97 (1954)
Erie area 91 (1991)
Mansfield area 94 (1925)
Toledo area 96 (1994)
Youngstown area 93 (1994)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for OHZ003-006-017.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/26
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Lombardy
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
938 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
.MARINE...Southerly low level jet will increase to 30-35 knots
over the coastal waters tonight. Latest CONSShort and HRRR show
winds increasing to around 20 knots over the Gulf waters through
most of the night. Expanded the SCA for all of the Gulf waters
until 10Z Tuesday. SCEC conditions will occur over the bays.
SCA may need to be extended into the daytime for portions of the
Gulf, but will let midnight shift determine that.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 714 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022/
AVIATION...00Z TAFs
VFR conditions along with strong and gusty southeast winds will
continue this evening under cirrus clouds over south Texas. Hazy
conditions will continue over the coastal region with reduced
vsbys to 6 SM at times this evening. MVFR ceilings will be
possible between 04-08Z along the coast as low level southerly
jet increases to 35-40 knots. Winds will remain elevated over
the coastal region overnight. With lighter winds inland, low
level wind shear is expected at ALI/COT from 08-14Z. MVFR ceilings
will become prevalent over the coastal plains from 08-14Z.
Conditions will improve to VFR around 14Z with strong southerly
winds mixing to the surface. Winds will turn southeast in the
afternoon with gusts over 30 knots at CRP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The upper trough over the region appears to have a structure that
is similar to, and appears to behave like, a TUTT low, with a
vorticity maximum at 250mb (center of 250mb low SW of BRO), and
with associated convection early this morning east of the low.
Deterministic runs move this system toward the NW during the
period, which will place the SERN CWA/adjacent Waters under the SE
quadrant if this system Tuesday night, along with the associated
increase in PWAT values from 1.75 to 2 inches. Anticipate
isolated convection to develop near the coast/offshore during the
06-12z Wednesday period. Otherwise, the upper ridge to the NE will
remain quasi-stationary during the period per deterministic
output, while disturbances move across the Rockies. The RFD
issued for the WRN CWA for today is verifying with Elevated fire
weather conditions. Will allow the RFD to expire at 01z Wednesday.
Although breezy conditions expected to continue to around 04z,
expect relative humidity values to no longer meet Elevated
criterion by 01z Wednesday. Current SPS for maximum Heat Index
values 105-109F verifying this afternoon. Expect 105-109F maximum
Heat Index values again Tuesday.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The inverted trough will continue to exit to the northwest Wednesday
as the mid-level ridge builds in from the east. There is potential
for a few showers to develop underneath the cap Wednesday morning,
but will expect any activity to wane as the day progresses. Surface
low pressure across Colorado and surface high pressure across the
southeast US will maintain persistent onshore flow as well as
moisture in the boundary layer. These events combined will maintain
hot and humid conditions through the week and into the weekend for
South Texas.
Long-term models do pick up on a shortwave that will trek east on
the southern periphery of the ridge this weekend which may increase
moisture and potentially bring showers and/or thunderstorms for
portions of South Texas, especially toward the Victoria Crossroads.
Model trends with respect to the Saharan dust continue to show the
dust to remain in the region through the week. This will lead to
hazy skies as well as air quality concerns, especially for sensitive
groups. Find more information on air quality from the Texas
Commission of on Environmental Quality.
With the full moon approaching and models showing increased swell
periods, will need to continue to monitor the potential for minor
coastal flooding along the gulf-facing beaches mid-week, mainly
Wednesday. At this time, P-ETSS and ETSS still show trends to remain
just below coastal flood criteria, but will continue to monitor
trends in the coming days.
MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory issued earlier today for the southern
bays/southern nearshore waters is verifying with most recent
sustained surface wind 20kt at BABT2, IRDT2, and PACT2. The
strong MSLP gradient that developed in response to lower MSLP
pressure over the Rio Grande, should relax significantly by 03z
Wednesday. Deterministic HiResW- FV3, GFS, and RAP runs suggest
sustained 20 kt wind over the coastal waters 00-12z Wednesday.
However, will maintain a Small Craft Exercise Caution. As
mentioned above, an apparent TUTT low may contribute to at least
isolated showers 06-12z Wednesday. Will maintain Hazy conditions
tonight through Tuesday night, given the NASSA/GMAO output.
Moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow is expected to
continue through Wednesday. Hazy conditions will continue this
week in response to Saharan dust. The flow will become weak to
moderate Thursday and Friday before a gradual strengthening trend
over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 80 92 79 93 78 / 0 0 10 10 0
Victoria 78 96 78 95 76 / 0 0 10 10 0
Laredo 79 101 79 100 77 / 0 0 10 0 0
Alice 77 97 77 97 75 / 0 0 10 10 0
Rockport 82 93 82 93 81 / 0 0 10 10 0
Cotulla 79 104 79 101 76 / 0 0 10 10 0
Kingsville 78 94 77 95 76 / 0 0 10 10 0
Navy Corpus 82 89 82 90 81 / 0 0 10 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Tuesday For the following
zones: Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Tuesday For the following
zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
20 NM.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
659 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
...Updated Aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
The main challenge in the forecast will be whether or not DDC sets
an all time record high minimum temperature today. The current
record is 81 degrees. So far, today`s minimum temperature is 83
degrees. The hot, windy airmass in place right now will continue
through tonight and into Tuesday at DDC. In fact, the 25 to 35 mph
sustained winds will not abate much at all after sunset, so this
will keep the boundary layer fairly well mixed through the night,
and the temperature will only slowly fall through the 90s this
evening. If DDC manages to stay above 81 degrees through 0559Z
(1259 AM CDT/1159 PM CST), the Dodge City long-term climate
station will establish a new all-time record high minimum
temperature. It certainly appears this has a rather high
probability of occurring, as the official forecast calls for a
06Z temperature of 85 degrees at DDC. The only obstacle to
reaching this record would be thunderstorm outflow. Isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the
leeside trough axis, however it does not appear coverage of storms
will be enough to generate much in the way of a cold pool, and
most storms are expected to remain northwest of DDC this evening.
Given the significant temperature-dewpoint spreads of 45+ degrees,
isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main risk.
As mentioned, tonight will remain very windy, keeping temperatures
up much of the night, although the 850mb temperatures will be
dropping off slightly by 06-12Z time frame vs. this morning, so low
temperatures Tuesday morning will likely be a touch lower than this
morning most locations, although it really won`t feel like it. The
advancing cold front tomorrow will reach west central KS by
afternoon before slowing down and eventually stalling out. The front
is expected to stall out north of GCK-DDC line, so much of the
forecast area will see highs in the lower 100s again. Low level
convergence along the front will likely be strong enough to support
thunderstorm development, and we will carry some 20-30 POPs up in
the northern counties Tuesday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Western Kansas will not see much of a break from the heat, although
Wednesday certainly looks like the "coolest" day of the forecast
period with highs in the upper 80s north to mid 90s south (97 in the
Red Hills). Mid level heights will be on the rise again as the next
high develops over the Southern Plains with expanding influence
across the Central Plains. This will result in the return to 100
degree heat by the weekend. Another upper level trough will develop
out West by the weekend, but the intense ridge across the central
CONUS will prevent this trough from advancing east toward the
Central Plains. By early to mid next week, the Central Plains high
will likely finally break down enough, allowing another polar front
down toward Kansas, but at Day+7 to +9 in the forecast, this is all
very much uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Scattered cumulus can be found along and east of a Garden City to
Liberal line. Some of the HREF CAM members, namely the more
robust ARW and nested NAM, develop high based convection with
convective thunderstorm outflow early this evening, disrupting
the ambient gusty southelry winds in the model fields. However
the said models had that activity ongoing already by 22 z - which
is not currently occurring per the latest GOES and KDDC 88D radar
observations. Looks like most of the CAMS are over convecting
this evening, at least in this DDC area of responsibility while
the far less robust HRRR has the best handle on the trend for this
evening with it`s dry solution. Look for a cold front to approach
the area by the noon hour Tuesday, turning winds westerly and
ramping down the winds gusts and sustained speeds as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 101 68 93 / 10 10 10 0
GCK 75 101 62 91 / 20 10 10 0
EHA 74 102 62 94 / 10 0 10 0
LBL 75 102 67 94 / 20 0 10 0
HYS 78 97 64 87 / 10 20 20 0
P28 79 99 76 97 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
646 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Forecast Highlights:
- Hot and humid through tonight, again Tuesday with Heat Advisories
remaining
- Windy Tuesday
- Active weather returns Tuesday evening through Wednesday, with
chance for strong to severe storms
A broad upper level ridge continues to slide east across the Central
Plains/Midwest today, followed by a deepening trough over the
Pacific Northwest. Convection with a few severe warned storms
occurred across mainly northeastern Iowa with the lingering MCS
this morning, which have now moved on across much of Wisconsin. A
low pressure system remains stationary over eastern
Nebraska/Kansas, with the warm front draped mainly across northern
Iowa into southern Minnesota. Cloud cover largely ascended to the
north with any lingering storms, with some lingering mid to upper
level clouds this afternoon across central to southern Iowa. This
clearing as expected has added to increase heating across the
area with insolation reaching the surface, with temperatures in
the upper 80s through the mid 90s for most and dewpoints largely
in the low 70s. With the lingering clouds over the northeastern
parts of the state, temperatures have been struggling to increase,
which will likely cause highs across this portion of the state to
barely make it through the 80s given that peak temperatures will
occur shortly given time of day. Mid to low level southwesterly
flow will continue through this afternoon and tonight with strong
warm air advection and LLJ. 850 temperatures from the NAM and RAP
models continue to trend on quite appreciable values above 25 to
30 C into the evening. Therefore, no changes to the Heat Advisory
were made as the trends are headed in the right direction over the
issued counties, which will continue until 7pm tonight.
The upper Midwest will remain under the influence of the upper ridge
overnight through at least Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures overnight
will be some of the warmest this year, possibly reaching records for
some areas as values are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s.
Considering the aforementioned 850 temperatures, guidance suggest
these will not be as big as an influence Tuesday as the thermal
ridge breaks down through the peak heating hours, with values only
slightly less compared to Monday in the mid to upper 20s C. Windy
conditions are expected through the afternoon Tuesday as the mixing
layer deepens into near 850-800mb through the day. Winds are
expected to largely range between 20 to 30 knots after sunrise
through the late afternoon, before calming into the evening. GFS and
NAM model soundings depict values upwards of 35-40 knots at the top
of the mixed layer, which could easily mix down given that skies
will mainly be mostly sunny. Wind Advisory criteria may be close but
have decided to not issue at this time given some uncertainty and
will depend on how conditions set up through the day. Given the
mentioned factors above, temperatures are still on track to reach
into the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s,
though the axis of higher temperatures will be more centered on the
southeastern half of the state. Overall will continue with the Heat
Advisory that the mid shift issued across the CWA from 11am through
7pm.
A mid-level low pressure system will continue to strengthen with the
deepening trough into Tuesday evening as it tracks into the Northern
Great Plains. Low level winds will make a shift into Tuesday evening
ahead of a cool front associated with the low pressure entering the
region. The next chance for more active weather comes with this
system, with showers and storms expected Tuesday evening through
Wednesday. There is some model discrepancy when it comes to
timing, as the NAM has a slightly later start after 06z Tuesday
over the western portions of the state while the GFS shows and
earlier start after 00z. The HREF members in comparison are not
much better currently, as disagreement also exists. Overall this
system looks to come in two waves: the first one being Tuesday
night through Wednesday afternoon and then Wednesday evening into
early Thursday, though will both be driven by the advancing cold
front. With the first round, MUCAPE values around 2500-3000 J/kg
with wind shear values between 35-40 knots could produce some
larger hail and severe wind gusts, though this could be largely
elevated through the morning with the inversion in place
overnight. The SPC in recent updates today upgraded most of the
CWA as a slight risk, which is also in place Wednesday as well.
These storms based on guidance look to mainly impact the
northwestern the central parts of Iowa. The second round will
likely occur in the late afternoon to evening Wednesday, where
temperatures out ahead of the front in the upper 80s to 90s with
dewpoints in the upper 60s will provide ample instability over
mainly the southeastern half of Iowa. MUCAPE values above 3500
J/kg with shear values between 30-40 knots are concerning for
severe potential, with large hail and damaging winds looking to be
the main threat. If supercells become organized along the cold
front, a tornado threat may also be in place. Will continue to
closely monitor as more details come into focus. WPC guidance over
the bulk of the event suggest higher rainfall totals over central
and northern Iowa, with totals up to a half inch to inch over
much of the area. Given the slow moving cold front impacting the
area over this period of time, could cause some hydro concerns as
well.
Lingering showers with weakening storms may continue early Thursday,
drying out with another buonday Morning Max Low Temperatures:
Lamoni (73, 1994)ilding thermal ridge over the western
CONUS. This will help reinforce the warming trend earlier in the
week, with highs through the rest of the week largely in the mid 80s
to low 90s, along with mainly dry weather at this time.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening/
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Cumulus clouds are moving across northern Iowa this evening. The
bases of these have improved to MVFR, and will continue to improve
to VFR over the next few hours. The cloud cover itself also
appears to be mixing out, which will remove the ceilings this
evening. The main issue will be low-level wind shear during the
overnight hours. Tuesday afternoon, wind gusts at the surface
around 30 kts will be possible. Rain showers and thunderstorms are
in the forecast late on Tuesday, but most chances are outside of
the current 00z TAF period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Temperature records at risk of falling at our major climate sites
Today/Tuesday:
Monday Highs:
Des Moines (99, 1886)
Lamoni (95, 1963)
Ottumwa (98, 1987)
Tuesday Morning Max Low Temperatures:
Des Moines (75, 1994)
Waterloo (75, 1994)
Mason City (73, 1994)
Ottumwa (77, 1981)
Lamoni (77, 1981)
Tuesday Highs:
Waterloo (99, 1987)
Ottumwa (99, 1987)
Lamoni (96, 1987)
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ004>006-015-016-
023>025-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ007-017-
026>028.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bury/Fowle
AVIATION...Krull
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
808 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Have allowed the blowing dust advisory to drop off across
southeast Utah and southwest Colorado at 8PM MDT. However, a thick
plume of smoke from fires across Arizona continue to impact the
air quality, visibility, and ceilings across the Western Slope.
Have made adjustments to account for areas of dense smoke across
the Four Corners region, stretching northeast over the Gunnison
Basin and Roaring Fork River Valley this evening. Please, heed to
air quality alerts and guidance issued by Colorado Department of
Health.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Local observations and webcams tell the story this afternoon with
widespread gusts of 35 to over 50 mph being reported across the
region. As expected, deep mixing has tapped into the stronger
winds aloft thanks to the jet stream moving overhead. Along with
this mixing, an approaching trough/surface cold front has tightened
the surface pressure gradient which is also helping to cause
those gusty winds. The High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories
remain in effect through later this evening for obvious reasons.
Latest satellite imagery shows plenty of smoke from Arizona
moving into the area as well as some dust in northwest New Mexico
moving to the northeast. Local webcams are already showing some
drops in visibilities due to this dust in the Four Corners area
(Blanding, UT airport is reporting varying visibilities from 1 to
2 1/2 miles) and expect this trend to continue for the remaining
southern valleys through the evening hours. Went ahead and issued
a blowing dust advisory for the southern valleys from SE UT
eastward to Pagosa Springs for those reduced visibilities through
8PM. The worst conditions are expected along the border of UT/AZ
and CO/NM.
Looking west, the cold front is just about to enter our CWA and as
it does, a few showers/storms are possible along the front where
the best lift will be located. Both the HRRR and NAMNEST do show a
slight uptick in convective intensity as the front moves through
this evening...again mainly for the northern valleys. Some
showery precip will linger overnight for those same areas into the
northern mountains but coverage will be limited. Any convection
that fires will have the ability to bring some strong winds to the
surface...possibly reaching 60 mph, it not a bit higher. If you
haven`t brought loose objects from outside in, now would be a
good time. Areas to the south will see winds subside heading into
the evening and late evening hours.
By tomorrow morning, the front will have pushed well to our east
allowing much cooler air to move in. Triple digit highs? Naah,
look for daytime highs to be about 5 degrees below seasonal
averages while from the San Juans south, highs will be right
around their usual average. Some clouds will linger north of the
I-70 corridor and central mountains in the morning hours before
mostly sunny skies become predominant across the CWA. Some gusty
winds will occur again tomorrow but should be on the order of 25
to 35 mph with stronger winds closer to the Continental Divide.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Models are consistent with a shortwave trough rotating under the
main low along the Canadian Border Tuesday night, reinforcing the
cooler morning low temperatures that will be five to ten degrees
below normal. Look for Wednesday to start with lows 45 to 50 degrees
in the lower valleys and 35 to 45 degrees in the higher mountain
valleys. As the low pressure system kicks northeast into the Hudson
Bay area Thursday, a ridge moves in from the west to warm the region
10 to 15 degrees by Friday. Models consistently indicate a deep
trough dropping south along the Pacific Coast Friday and the high
pressure over the Southeastern States shifting west of the
Mississippi River to put the Southwestern States and Rockies up into
Colorado under a southerly flow to pull the moisture north out of
northern Mexico in a monsoon-like flow. This isn`t a true monsoon as
the pressure gradient is partially due to the trough to the west
that will pass to the east cutting off the tap to the moisture. Look
for dew points to rise into the upper 40`s and low 50`s Friday
afternoon through Monday morning before the trough moves east across
the region, sweeping the moisture out of the area. Expect showers
and thunderstorms across the southern and central Colorado mountains
Friday afternoon, spreading across all of the eastern Utah and
Western Colorado region Saturday and Sunday before being swept out
of the area Monday. Much of the area will see wetting rain with the
mountains, particularly the San Juans getting the most rain. Behind
the trough, a zonal flow will dry out the area for a few days, but
guidance is showing the high pressure will stay in place over
Oklahoma and Arkansas, hinting of a possible early monsoonal
pattern. Confidence in this is low at this point, so stay tuned to
see how this develops.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Cold front currently draped along a line north of Green River to
Meeker and Steamboat will continue to push south and east this
evening. Do expect the boundary to slow down over the next few
hours, as these boundaries typically get `hung up` along the Roan
Cliffs and Flat Tops. Line of convective activity trailing behind
the surface boundary will take a more easterly track impacting TAF
sites along and north of the I-70 corridor this evening. Showers
may temporarily drop ceilings below ILS break points as they move
through and locally enhance surface gusts. South, blowing dust
and smoke from AZ fires will continue to impact visibility and
lower ceilings at KDRO, KTEX, KMTJ and KGUC. Plume will continue
to push east and be truncated south as the cold front approaches
from the north. Though, the front will weaken over night as it
sags southeast, and will eventually cross over the southern
portion of the region by mid Tuesday morning. Strong westerly
winds move in over in the cold front`s wake, so expect afternoon
gusts to ramp back up, though about 20 kts weaker than experienced
today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Strong southwest winds are occurring as deep mixing are tapping
into the jet stream aloft while an approaching cold front is
causing a tightening of the surface pressure gradient. Strong
winds are being reported across the area resulting in extreme
fire behavior. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through 11 pm
this evening for all Fire Zones where fuels remain critical.
Even though cooler temperatures will follow tomorrow, conditions
will remain dry and breezy resulting in critical fire weather
conditions across portions of southwest Colorado. Red Flag
Warnings remain in effect as gusts look to be in the 30 to 40 mph
range for portions of southwest Colorado, particularly the higher
elevations across the San Juans and central mountains, including
the Gunnison Basin. Winds are a bit lower with gusts around 30
mph for the lower elevations of west- central and southwest
Colorado, but relative humidity remains in the single digits so those
areas also remain in a Red Flag Warning for Tuesday as well.
Critical fire weather conditions are looking more marginal and not
as widespread in terms of wind gusts reaching criteria for
eastern Utah so opted not to issue anything for Tuesday for those
zones.
Wednesday, some pockets of localized critical fire weather
conditions are possible for the central-eastern and southern
zones. As of this afternoon, coverage and borderline winds look
marginal at best so held off on any fire weather highlights.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-203-
207-290>295.
High Wind Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for COZ001-002-
006>008-011-014-020>022.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ203-207-
290>295.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM MDT this evening for COZ003-005-009-
017-023.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for UTZ487-490-491.
High Wind Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-024-
027-029.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM MDT this evening for UTZ028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ERW
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
812 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 812 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Radar this evening shows one lonely shower has been able to pop
up in Fentress County in association with a shortwave trough
moving southeast across Kentucky. Despite the extreme instability
present on our 00Z sounding with MLCAPE over 4000 J/Kg,
substantial MLCIN also exists so I`m not expecting this shower to
last much longer. Latest HRRR model runs show a few piddly mid-
level showers could also occur late tonight over our far eastern
counties, but too uncertain to include a precip chance for this
potential.
Otherwise, heat advisory definitely verified today with most
areas seeing heat indicies peaking in the 105-110 range. Since
the upper ridge will be parked right overhead again tomorrow and
low levels winds look to be weaker than today, we should be able
to heat up a degree or two versus today`s readings. Therefore I
went ahead and expanded the heat advisory eastward to include
more of the Upper Cumberland counties for Tuesday, with only the
highest Plateau counties left out. Only fly in the ointment is
weaker capping tomorrow may allow for a few isolated showers or
thunderstorms to develop on the Plateau in the afternoon as some
guidance suggests, and this activity or its associated cloud
cover could affect temps in the farthest eastern parts of the
advisory. Made several adjustments to temps/dewpoints/apparent
temps for tonight/tomorrow based on latest guidance, but
otherwise forecast is generally on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
So, if you haven`t been outside, don`t. If you have to? Eesh.
Heat Index values (or feels-like temperatures) are running
105-110 with one or two spots creeping to 111. This is the case
for just about everyone west of the Cumberland Plateau. After
speaking with Nashville OEM and ascertaining that at this point,
there hasn`t been anything close to significant uptick in heat-
related issues, I`m going to hold onto the Heat Advisory for
today, abstaining from upping it to an Excessive Heat Warning.
Similarly for tomorrow, expected Heat Index values should keep us
in the Advisory category. My biggest concern regarding the heat
is the idea that we`ll only cool into the upper 70s tonight, so
there won`t be much in the way of relief over the next 48 hours.
(See Climate section below)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Rain chances are slim for awhile. Global models are trying to
spark convection to our southeast and south tomorrow and
Wednesday, but I`m having a hard time believing it`s going to
affect us, given the overall strength of the ridge. I`ll carry a
small afternoon/early evening PoP both days, but don`t be
surprised if no one sees rain. Of course, if storms do fire up,
there will be plenty of instability leading to at least a
damaging wind threat. Again though, this is a very small chance.
Where`s the relief? Well, it`s coming. Both the GFS and Euro show
the passage of a weak front Thursday, which could do two things:
increase rain chances that day (not greatly, but at least some, to
limit some of the heat) AND we`ll see a *cool* down this weekend.
Of course, that`s a relative phrase. Highs will fall back to the
low 90s, if you consider that *cool*. Still a couple of degrees
above normal.
Upper ridging to our west next week could spell another bout of
mid 90s just in time for the arrival of SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
VFR conditions will prevail for the taf period. Winds will be at
or below 5 kts overnight and increase to 5-10 kts out of the
SW/WSW after 14z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 78 99 76 97 / 10 10 10 30
Clarksville 77 97 74 96 / 0 10 0 10
Crossville 72 90 72 90 / 10 20 10 30
Columbia 76 98 74 96 / 10 10 10 30
Cookeville 74 94 73 92 / 10 20 10 30
Jamestown 71 91 71 91 / 10 20 10 30
Lawrenceburg 75 96 73 95 / 10 10 10 30
Murfreesboro 76 98 74 97 / 10 10 10 30
Waverly 76 98 74 96 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-
Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-
Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-
Wilson.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Shamburger
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Reagan
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
812 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 812 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Current surface analysis shows cold front slowly tracking east
across far western SD right now. Line of showers and storms have
developed and filled in along the front from eastern Harding
County to Fall River County. Storm had stayed rather disorganized
up until recently, but isolated storms along the front have
started to become severe, with larger hail and gusty winds
accompanying them. Storms are moving into a more favorable
environment further east, so they could sustain themselves for a
while, with additional stronger development possible. Latest runs
of the HRRR are mostly focusing stronger storm potential with the
expected activity across southwest SD over the next few hours as
it moves northeastward. Locally heavy rainfall is also noted,
especially over parts of northwest SD where storms are slower
moving and training over some of the same areas. Severe
thunderstorm watch is in effect until 05z for western SD.
Only minor adjustments have been made to the forecast for the rest
of tonight at this point. Showers and storms will continue to
shift east-northeast with the front tonight, with severe potential
likely dissipating toward midnight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Current surface analysis shows Pacific cold front stretching from
eastern MT to eastern WY, with weak low pressure along the front
across northeast WY. Upper level analysis shows trough across the
western US, with low pressure across western MT. Strong upper jet
is in place on the east side of the trough from southwest WY to
eastern MT and far western ND. Low clouds have dissipated across
much of the area, except for far northwest SD, with partly to
mostly sunny skies. Regional radars show some storms have started
to develop near the front from eastern MT to northeast WY. Temps
range from the 70s over northern and western areas, where clouds
lingered through the morning, to near 90 over south central SD.
Humid conditions are in place across a good portions of the
western and south central SD plains, with mid 60s to lower 70s
dewpoints.
One more late afternoon and evening of potentially active weather
can be expected as the front pushes through the area. The main focus
area for strong to severe storms looks to be from far northeast WY
to the northern half of the Black Hills and northwest SD as stronger
upper level support generally passes over those areas and is able to
overcome weakening CIN in place late this afternoon and early
evening. MLCAPE values to around 1000 j/kg are forecast for those
areas late today, with strong shear supportive of supercell
development. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary
threats from severe storms, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out again from far northeast WY into northwest SD if a stronger
storm gets going along the front. With precipitable water values 150
percent or more of average, locally heavy rain is also possible,
especially if there is any training of storms. Further south and
east, CAPE values increase with the warmer temps and increasing
moisture. However, CIN is higher and storm development will be
increasingly difficult the further south and east you go through the
early evening, especially to the south and southeast of the Black
Hills. Some activity could eventually develop and push through some
of these areas with the front later this evening and into the
overnight, but severe potential should gradually diminish with time.
Upper trough will move further east across the northern Rockies and
northern Plains Tuesday into Tuesday night. Front will be well east
of the area Tuesday morning, with much cooler air and brisk winds in
place. Highs will range from the 60s over northeast WY, the Black
Hills, and northwest SD to near 80 over south central SD. Best
chances for showers and a few storms on Tuesday will be across
northern portions of the CWA, from far northeast WY to northwest SD.
Chance for stronger storms looks minimal, with MUCAPE up to 500 j/kg
and much weaker shear.
As the upper trough finally starts to push northeast of the region
later Tuesday night and Wednesday, a drier pattern will set up for a
few days. Gusty winds will develop across northwest SD on Wednesday
as tightening pressure gradient sets up to the north of the region.
Cooler conditions will continue on Wednesday, then a warming trend
takes place late week into the weekend as a high amplitude ridge
builds over the region. Upper high is expected to set up over the
central and southern Plains, with a period of hot weather over the
weekend and possibly into early next week. Highs by the weekend
should be in the 90s to near 100 across much of the plains, with 80s
to near 90 over the Black Hills. Mainly dry conditions will likely
continue through at least Saturday, but at least some slight chances
for storms could return toward the latter half of the weekend or
early next week if the ridge drifts further east and allows some
shortwave energy in southwest flow to move across the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued At 542 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop during
the evening hours, tracking from southwest to northeast across a
good portion of northeast WY and western SD. A few storms could be
severe with large hail and strong wind gusts. Areas of MVFR
conditions are expected into the overnight hours. Activity will
taper off in most areas overnight. A passing cold front will switch
winds to the northwest, breezy for a period behind it. There will be
chances for showers and a few storms on Tuesday, mainly across far
northeast WY and northwest SD. Breezy west to northwest winds can be
expected as well.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
Update...26
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26