Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/12/22
See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Warm temperatures continue into Sunday with highs in the 80s
Otherwise, periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
the short term with the possibility of some of those being on the
strong/severe side through Monday.
Deterministic models continue to show an upper level ridge over much
of the Rockies. An upper level trough/low in the Pacific will start
to push east, flattening out the ridge just a bit as this ridge move
east into Sunday. This will lead to northwest flow aloft becoming
more zonal then winds out of the southwest by 00Z Monday. This setup
will continue to pump shortwave energy aloft. At 850mb, the models
are in good agreement with a LLJ over much of the CWA by 06Z Monday
with 25-35kt winds (Nam suggesting 40-50 kt winds at this time over
southern SD). Back at the surface, a low pressure system will
continue to push east/southeast with the cold front passing over the
CWA overnight into early Sunday. A lee trough/low will be positioned
over the Rockies Sunday with the low moving northeast Sunday night
into Monday.
HREF suggest some ML/MU Cape (1200 J/KG and under) this evening but
decreasing overnight with bulk shear values in the 50/60kt range out
of the northwest with values increasing overnight across parts of
the central CWA. Higher amounts of ML/MUCAPE(1000-2500 J/KG) with
bulk shear values ranging from the 60-80kts(with isolated stronger
areas) out of the west are forecasted Sunday evening into the
overnight hours Monday. ECMWF suggest both low level and mid-level
lapse rates will be steep along with LI index below zero. NBM
indicates high temps for Sunday to be well in the 80s with dewpoints
by 00Z Sunday in 50s/60s, and becoming warmer through the night,
ahead of the cold front. So, with daytime heating, moist air at the
surface, along with these parameters mentioned, and the synoptic set
up, this suggest a strong amount of positive buoyancy and energy
that should break the ongoing cap by Sunday evening through the
overnight with convection initiation beginning to our west.
CAMs/HRRR indicate showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west
reaching our western counties tonight, ahead of the cold front, then
pushing east through the night. With just marginal cape, there is
enough stronger winds aloft (80+ kts at 250mb) and wind shear. So
some of these cells could be on the strong/severe side with the
main threat being hail/gusty winds. Seems to be pretty isolated at
this point. As the cold front continues to push east, most of the
convective showers/tstorms should be out of the area as an inversion
sets in and caps the atmosphere during the day Sunday. HRRR seems to
keep a few lingering rain showers/tstorms on the border of ND/SD
through 18Z. With the second system, more rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to push through during late Sunday
night/overnight into Monday morning, which again, could be on the
stronger side. CAMs models show these storms quickly growing upscale
suggested large hail, gusty winds, and possible isolated tornadoes
early on. As as they move east, some CAMs indicate these cells could
become linear which would suggest damaging winds becoming the main
threat during the overnight. This is backed by the SPC with a slight
risk for Day 1 across parts of our central and southern CWA
(everywhere else being marginal). Day 2 has much of our central and
western CWA in a slight risk with a marginal risk east of the James
River.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
The main challenge in the extended is precipitation chances early in
the period. Strong upper level ridging will build just to the east
of the region on Monday, then will see southwesterly flow set up
ahead of a western U.S. trough Tuesday. The trough tracks across the
Northern Plains on Wednesday, followed by another strong ridge
setting up over the central part of the country for the remainder of
the extended period.
At the surface, a broad area of low pressure will extend from
Montana to Kansas Monday morning, with showers and thunderstorms
possibly ongoing across parts of the northern CWA. By Monday
evening, the portion of the low from southwest South Dakota to
eastern Colorado will intensify, with southerly flow ushering very
warm and moist air into the region. Though instability will be
extreme, the afternoon will likely remain dry as H7 temps rise to
around +16C, creating a very strong cap. The low and its associated
frontal boundary will track across the CWA late Monday night into
Tuesday morning, with a better chance for near to post frontal
precipitation. Parts of the CWA may see additional precipitation
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a low pressure system
tracks just south of the area, but rainfall amounts will not be
significant. The remainder of the extended period looks to be dry as
high pressure becomes the dominant feature over the region. Much
warmer air returns to the area late in the period.
High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s Monday, in the
mid 70s to lower 80s Tuesday, in the 70s Wednesday, in the upper 70s
to mid 80s Thursday, in the lower 80s to lower 90s Friday, and in
the upper 80s to upper 90s Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 50s to the lower 70s Monday night, in the 50s Tuesday night,
Wednesday night and Thursday night, and in the 60s Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions and light winds are forecast to prevail over the
next 24 hours at all 4 terminals.
Drilling down to the first 6 hours of the TAF valid period,
convection already ongoing out over southeast Montana is forecast
to work into western South Dakota, potentially reaching the
Missouri River valley (KMBG/KPIR) by 06Z. Some of the high-res
details in CAM solutions suggest a couple of these storms could be
bringing quite a bit of strong wind into western and central South
Dakota through late this evening. As a heads up, severe TS wind
gusts (~50kts) have been tempo`d in KPIR`s TAF, based on the
latest guidance`s timing.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dorn
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKDT Sat Jun 11 2022
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A vertically stacked low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska
continued to wobble around through the day today, sending bands of
showers across upslope areas of Prince William Sound. An area of
convergence running parallel through Cook Inlet produced showers
earlier in the day, which have since dissipated as the convergence
weakened.
A low pressure system is dropping south across northwest and
western Alaska. Southwesterly onshore flow over southwest Alaska
impinging on the Alaska range, combined with an area of weak low
pressure at the surface and weak divergent flow aloft to produce
an area of showers and scattered thunderstorms east of Sleetmute
to McGrath.
Temperatures across the region are seasonal, mainly in the 60s and
low 70s, with cooler readings in coastal areas and higher
elevations. Despite the relative benign sounding pattern,
numerous wildfires producing widespread smoke continue, mainly
over southwest Alaska.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are really in pretty good agreement through Monday, when
differences develop with the evolution of the low pressure system
over northwest Alaska and the next low to move into the western
Gulf from the North Pacific.
The low over northwest Alaska will slowly drop south to around
the Yukon before wrapping around and moving back north. This will,
in effect, leave a semi-persistent trough extended across
southwest Alaska through Monday. This will lead to moderate
temps, predominantly light winds and scattered rain showers.
Embedded isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in favored
upslope areas. Not much to talk about weather-wise for
Southcentral through at least Monday. Seasonal temps and isolated
to scattered showers and occasional thunder expected in the
typical mountain areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.
Westerly winds late this afternoon and evening will gradually
back to the south overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Isolated showers developed today from Cook Inlet into the Susitna
Valley as weak upper level waves converge over the area from both
east and west. Instability parameters (including CAPE, LI and
Totals Total) suggest there is potential for thunderstorms over
portions of Southcentral this afternoon/evening including the
Alaska Range, Talkeetnas Mountains. More isolated showers/tsra
will be possible Sunday. Monday, a closed low from the North
Pacific will move south of Kodiak and the moisture plume will move
across Kodiak Island through Tuesday. The leading edge of the
precipitation shield will bring rain to Seldovia, the Gulf side of
the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound.
The are 74 active fires in Alaska today. On satellite imagery a
plume of smoke was detected over Southwest Alaska and the Alaska
Range to southeast of Kodiak. This plume is over 1,100 miles long.
The HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model brings this smoke
towards the Parks Highway and Talkeetna. This situation is
actively being monitored.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Haze and smoke from wildfires across the Southwest and AKPen will
continue to lower visibility at times for at least the couple
days. Cumulus clouds forming off the lee of the Kuskokwim and
Alaska mountains may initiate isolated thunderstorms this evening.
Chances for thunderstorms will diminish as a gradual change in
the weather shifts to a relatively cooler and cloudier pattern
over the next few days and into the early half of the week ahead.
An upper level low over northern mainland AK will drop south
leading to more widespread onshore flow as winds at the surface
shift from north today to westerly by Monday afternoon. An upper
jet streak will form across Southwest as the low descends south on
Sunday morning through Monday. The jet streak will strengthen on
Monday and become S-N oriented before weakening again Tuesday as
it moves north. The low may phase with a western Gulf low and
while there is lower confidence in the location of the
precipitation, rain showers are expected from the AKPen and
Bristol Bay, inland to the Middle Kuskokwim and Alaska Range. The
best chances will be over the AKPen with the energy associated
with the western Gulf system.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
An upper level ridge over Aleutians with the surface ridge axis
over the western Aleutians is keeping the Bering Sea and Aleutians
fairly quiet. Weak northerly flow will last until around Monday.
Fog and low stratus may linger near the Pribilofs, across the
Bering, and along the Aleutians towards the AKPen for at least the
next couple days. A small, secondary low west of the Pribilofs is
allowing for an area of clear skies and otherwise very low impact
to that area. A low near Kamchatka will merge with a North
Pacific low on Monday just southwest of the western Aleutians.
This will push the ridge eastward and the overall synoptic flow
will shift, influencing the upper level jet near the western
Aleutians on Monday night. Details on the winds and onset of
precipitation will depend upon the timing and placement as the
lows merge.
&&
.MARINE (Days 3 through 5:Tuesday through Thursday)...
Gulf of Alaska: A North Pacific low and associated front moves
into the western Gulf on Tuesday with gusty northeast winds
through Shelikof Strait. As the low weakens on Wednesday, an area
of high pressure builds over the Gulf through Thursday. Expect
winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the Day 3
through 5 period.
Aleutians/Bering: A well developed North Pacific low and
associated front approaches the Western Aleutians on Wednesday.
Winds are expected to increase to small craft with areas of gales
on the Pacific side of the Western and Central Aleutians. Seas
will be less than 10 feet, building to 12-15 feet on the Pacific
side of the Western and Central Aleutians between Wednesday
through Thursday. Forecast confidence remains low to moderate with
the track and position as the low and front progresses eastward.
Otherwise, winds should be less than 35 kts and seas less than 20
ft for the rest of the day on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7:Wednesday through Saturday)...
Overall, the latest operational model runs are in good agreement
with the evolution and progression of the synoptic scale features,
but diverge in the specific details towards the end of the
period. A slow-moving retrograding upper low near western Alaska
lifts slowly north, while a surface low and front is positioned in
the western Gulf on Wednesday. The consensus maintains a cool and
wet pattern for the southern coast for midweek before the low
weakens. Meanwhile, a general warming trend is expected for much
of the interior as an east-west oriented ridge builds across
eastern Alaska and the Yukon. Between Friday to Saturday, however,
there is considerable model spread associated with easterly waves
from the AK-Yukon Territory and a possible chance of showers
returning over the Copper River Basin. Out west, a deep low lifts
northeastward toward the western Bering Sea on Wednesday. The GFS
still seems to be the faster solution with this system as it
speeds quickly eastward along the Chain. Even though there are
some timing differences, much of the Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula can expect increasing rain chances and possible gusty
winds along and ahead of the associated front as the system
approaches the second half of next week.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...VR
MARINE/LONG TERM...MF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1101 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Key Messages:
- Some fog possible tonight
- Thunderstorm complex possible Monday morning, strong to
severe?
- Sharp warmup (hot/humid) heading into Tuesday
- Additional thunderstorm chances Tue night thru Wed night,
strong to severe?
Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level ridge over
the Rocky Mountains and northwest flow aloft over the Upper Great
Lakes Region. An impulse over western Wisconsin embedded in the
northwest flow aloft/moving along weak surface warm front is
producing scattered showers and isolated storms across western
Wisconsin/northeast Iowa per latest mosaic radar.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY:
Subsidence behind impulse will allow for diminishing
scattered/isolated convection this evening into tonight. Latest
11.12z GFS/NAM/RAP show low level moisture trapped under an
inversion tonight along/north of surface warm front over eastern
Iowa. The deterministic models suggest low level stratus deck to
form and have potential for fog development in parts of the forecast
area after 06z Sunday. Forecast area should remain cloudy through
the overnight.
Another impulse will track along surface warm front Sunday morning.
However...the 11.12z deterministic models suggest weaker moisture
convergence/forcing in association with impulse and the latest hi-
resolution models indicate isolated showers over the southern half
of the forecast area. Will continue with small chances of showers or
a storm or two Sunday morning. Then...upper level/surface ridge
begins to build into the forecast area Sunday afternoon and allow
for mainly dry weather. High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HEADING INTO MONDAY:
Shortwave energy crossing the Northern Rockies on Sunday will likely
initiate a complex of thunderstorms over the Northern Plains Sunday
evening. This complex of storms will encounter a pool of 60-70F
dewpoints and muggy nighttime temperatures as it crosses the Dakotas
into southern Minnesota. RAP shows a sharp MUCAPE gradient in the
vicinity of a warm front stretching from near the ND/SD border into
southwest MN/north-central IA. Steep mid-level lapse rates
contributing to the impressive instability along and south of the
front will help sustain updrafts, along with a modest low level jet.
Convection will be elevated with the MCS likely riding the
instability gradient. Despite the elevated nature, far southwestern
counties may have sufficient DCAPE to support a threat for gusty
winds, along with some hail potential. Heavy rainfall is a
possibility in the very moist environment (PWATs locally 2+") with
favorable warm cloud depths. But the system will be progressive,
mitigating any flood threat. Convective allowing models have some
differences in storm timing/location/intensity, but they do show
general agreement for an MCS to roll somewhere through the area
roughly between 6AM to noon. Expect to see continued fluctuation in
potential outcomes as the CAMs try to pin down other preceding
rounds of convection upstream through Sunday.
HEAT CONCERNS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY:
Biggest weather story as the work week unfolds will be building heat
and humidity as upper ridging amplifies over the Southeast. A
developing longwave trough / upper low over the western CONUS will
contribute to this amplification, while enhancing heat and moisture
return northward through the Mississippi Valley. NAEFS and ECMWF
show the core of the 500mb ridge exceeding all climatology over the
Tennessee Valley late Monday into Tuesday. Locally, upper ridging
will not be near as extreme but approaches 2 standard deviations
above the mean for mid-June. 850-700mb temps present a more
impressive signal locally, approaching +3 standard deviations with
percentiles exceeding all climatology Monday into Tuesday. 925mb
temps are progged to be around 30C.
So, strong indications in guidance for a strong warmup heading into
Tuesday, though it`s still a bit early to pinpoint how deeply we
will mix. Most of the area is likely to climb well into the 90s
(which is well supported by EPS ensemble). Indications are for a
good amount of sunshine and a favorable south to southwest breeze to
add to the warming cause behind a passing warm front. The whole
setup described above fits the conceptual model pretty well for
local office climatological studies of setups for potential record
heat. Therefore, wouldn`t rule out some locations possibly flirting
with upper 90s. On the other hand, soil moisture isn`t particularly
lacking, which could slow the rate of warming a bit. Humidity will
be on the increase Monday into Tuesday with dewpoints approaching
70, so heat indices are likely to range from 95-105. Seems likely at
least parts of the area may need an eventual head advisory. The good
news is the worst of the heat/humidity will be short-lived as the
ridge quickly departs by Wednesday.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TUE NIGHT - WED NIGHT:
While the occluding upper/surface lows rotate into the Canadian
Prairies Tuesday night, a trailing cold front from northern MN will
begin to cross the forecast area heading into Wednesday. Another
wave of low pressure will zip northward along the front on
Wednesday. Southwest flow will direct favorable moisture transport
into the area out of the front with another day of strong
instability. Deep layer shear along the front looks to be adequate
for organized convection Wednesday afternoon-evening, so will have
to monitor the evolving severe potential over the next few days.
Once the cold front exits by Thursday, an expansive surface high
will build into the region to close out the week with quieter
and slightly cooler (near-normal), less humid weather.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Current observations suggest fog and low stratus are only hours
away with skies clearing somewhat at this time per GOES satellite
imagery. Dewpoint depressions are less than 5F around the area
and some fog is already being reported. This trend will continue
and confidence is high enough now to include LIFR at KRST and IFR
at KLSE - mainly ceilings. This will then slowly improve Sunday
morning with KRST being a slower clean-up on ceilings than KLSE.
At some point in the afternoon on Sunday, VFR should return.
Storm chances on Monday morning are increasing at both sites.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DTJ/Kurz
AVIATION...Baumgardt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
923 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Widespread showers and storms have moved into/developed across
western North Dakota with most of the thunderstorms across the far
southwest. Storms have remained on the tame side this evening, and
they should remain in check and weaken even more as we approach
sunset. For this update, just tweaked sky cover and precipitation
chances based on the latest observations and trends
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
No major changes were needed for the early evening update. the
wait continues for the larger area of thunderstorms to enter the
west. Thus far, the strongest storms over eastern Montana will
track mainly into South Dakota, but the environment will be
favorable for a couple of stronger storms across our southwest
before the night is over. So we will have to see how things
evolve. Elsewhere, a few popcorn showers and storms have popped up
across the north central with only some sporadic lightning
strikes here and there.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
The main concern in the short term period will be thunderstorm
chances. Afternoon satellite imagery shows increasing mid and high
clouds in eastern Montana with some afternoon cumulus also
developing. In North Dakota, stratus lingers from near Jamestown
north to near Devils Lake. MRMS Composite Reflectivity mosaic
shows a few showers in eastern Montana with not much currently in
North Dakota.
Short term high resolution model solutions generally agree that a
weak wave moving through the westerly H5 flow aloft could help
trigger a few showers / thunderstorms this afternoon from eastern
Montana into western North Dakota that will move east tonight into
early Sunday. HREF 2-5KM updraft helicity doesn`t show much of a
signal across North Dakota with the better chances for organized
convection across South Dakota. That being said, there are at
least a member or two that do bring a weaker updraft helicity
track across far southwest North Dakota later this evening, so
can`t rule out the possibility of a stronger storm in that area
(which is already covered well in the SPC Day 1 outlook).
Convection that moves farther east overnight should be more of the
general thunderstorm variety as instability decreases later
tonight.
Overall, it appears convection should wane Sunday morning, though
a few iterations of the HRRR have been suggesting it may never
completely go away. The better thunderstorm chances should come
later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
The next in a series of upper waves will move into the region as
a trough in South Dakota becomes better organized along with a
warm front. Some recent model trends have suggested the better
focus for organized convection will be across South Dakota, where
the better deep layer shear and instability overlap with the
stronger forcing. That being said, it could be a fairly sharp
cutoff fairly close to the South Dakota border, so a few stronger
to potentially severe storms in our south remain possible. This
signal shows up in the latest HREF with reflectivity paintball
clusters of greater than or equal to 40 dbz showing quite a few
members riding along the South Dakota / North Dakota border area
Sunday night. There is also a signal for some convective
organization with updraft helicity neighborhood probabilities of
35 m2/s2 increasing along that same region late Sunday night into
Monday morning.
Convection from Sunday night could linger into early Monday,
especially in the eastern half of the forecast area. Attention
then turns to the potential for severe thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and night. The bottom line up front is that the
potential for severe thunderstorms remains, but there are still
some questions that will need to be answered to see how it all
eventually comes together. Southwesterly flow aloft is expected
to be in place with very warm H7 temperatures in the southwest
half of the state. The better moisture / instability will be in
the south central towards the James River Valley, but the warm
temperatures aloft could help suppress the convective potential,
at least initially. This is also supported in the forecast
soundings which show a fairly strong cap in place during the
afternoon. Farther west, the better forcing will exist as a H5
wave moves into the area closer to the surface boundary. This
should help assist in convective initiation, but SBCAPE will be
less in that region, though 0-6 deep layer shear still looks
supportive of organized convection. It`s still a little too early
to go too far into any potential details, but it does appear that
deep layer shear vectors do become more parallel along the cold
front fairly quickly, so it could be a case of seeing storms
eventually becoming more clusters / lines as they evolve. Will
continue to advertise the severe potential in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook, with later forecasts likely able to hone in on
the details.
Once the cold front passes, cooler temperatures are expected for a
couple days, before an upper ridge builds into the Northern Plains
with warming temperatures. Late next week into the weekend could
be quite warm with NBM 4.1 highs already showing lower 90s in
parts of the area. Breaking things down a bit by looking at the
25th percentile, would still give mid 80s to around 90 in the
southern half of the forecast area for Saturday.
Winds will also be something to keep an eye on behind the front for
Tuesday through Thursday. The ECMWF EFI has focused a bit on
Wednesday for the best wind potential across the entire forecast
area, but there are also some hints that Tuesday and Thursday will
still be on the breezy side of things. Again, won`t go too deep
into the details yet, but it`s something we will have to refine as
those periods get closer.
In regards to precipitation chances beyond Monday, we didn`t really
stray from the NBM pops which seem reasonable based on the expected
pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 923 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
VFR conditions should prevail through most of the period. Showers
and thunderstorms will be on the increase across the west tonight,
and areas under the heaviest cores could see brief visibility
reductions to MVFR categories. The best chance for impacts from
thunderstorms will be over KDIK. KBIS and KMOT could have some
storms in the vicinity tonight, but the eastern extent of
convection and how it evolves also remains a bit unclear. Thus,
will go with vicinity thunder at those two sites for now.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM...King
AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
543 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon - Sunday Night)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Mid-level cumulus has become quite extensive along much of the I80
corridor between Rawlins and Sidney this afternoon, but not before
daytime high temperatures soared into the lower to middle 90s over
a large portion of the area. Record to near-record highs have been
observed w/ the warmest reading so far today being 95 deg F at the
KCYS (Cheyenne Airport) ASOS, shattering the previous record of 92
deg F set in 2013. A few high-based showers and thunderstorms have
started to develop within the aforementioned cumulus field. Do not
expect this activity to become particularly intense, but will need
to watch for locally strong downburst winds given large inverted-v
profiles with the LCLs well above the freezing level. Flow through
the boundary layer is quite weak as well, so gusts to 60+ MPH will
be possible with virtually any storms. Also monitoring areas along
a line from Douglas-Lusk-Alliance over the next several hours. The
HRRR remains quiet in this area, but has seemed to suffer from too
aggressive of low-level mixing with current observed dew points 10
deg F higher than HRRR guidance suggests. The NAM12 is on the more
moist side, but does hint at possible CI later this afternoon with
an H5 speed max tracking just to the north. Overall shear profiles
would support supercell development if initiation occurs. Opted to
add some slight chance PoPs w/ mention of gusty winds & small hail
for our far north through 03z.
Another very warm day on Sunday as 700 millibar temperatures climb
to +18 deg C over much of the CWA. Daytime highs could be a couple
degrees lower than today as clouds should begin to increase a good
bit earlier in the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should
develop across a large part of the area, although the best low-lvl
moisture and resultant instability for stronger convection will be
just to the north and east of the CWA. SPC has maintained a Slight
Risk on Day 2 which just clips our far eastern zones. Overall, the
threat for gusty winds will be the primary concern once again with
the large inverted-v profiles over much of the CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Monday - Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
1) Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon
in our far northeastern portions of our CWA, including Niobrara
(WY), Sioux (NE), and Dawes (NE) Counties. Primary threats will be
lightning, large hail, and damaging winds.
2) Rain showers expected in other portions of the CWA ahead of the
cool frontal passage, especially west of the Laramie Range.
3) Near record breaking high temperatures Monday. Temperatures cool
down Tuesday and Wednesday with the cool frontal passage. Then,
Thursday hot and dry conditions return with temperatures back to
well above-normal for this time of year.
DISCUSSION: Primary changes made to the long term forecast were in
temperatures Monday, increasing them a degree or two, especially in
the southern Nebraska panhandle where we could see into triple
digits; and decreasing PoPs Monday evening in the Nebraska
panhandle. Model guidance is currently split between the GFS and NAM
showing pretty much no precipitation east of the Laramie Range and
the ECMWF and Canadian showing guaranteed precipitation in at least
the northern Nebraska panhandle. So naturally, the NBM split it down
the middle. This forecast package, the PoPs were cut significantly
as I am leaning more towards the drier solutions.
Beginning Monday night, the forecast is back on track with little to
no changes from the previous forecast. The cold (more like cool)
front will begin to push into far western portions of our CWA by
Monday evening and be pushed all the way through the CWA to the
southeast by Tuesday evening. Temperatures will be right around
normal Tuesday with highs in the 60s west of the Laramie Range and
70s to low 80s east of the Laramie Range. Wednesday the ridge begins
to build back in bringing in hot and dry conditions through Thursday.
Friday will be the next chance of precipitation for southeast
Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle as some guidance is showing a
surge of moisture into the Nebraska panhandle with some instability.
If this solution holds on, I would not be surprised to see an upward
trend in the precipitation chances Friday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Wyoming TAFS...VFR. Wind gusts to 35 knots until 02Z, then gusts
to 35 knots after 15Z Sunday.
Nebraska TAFS...VFR, except for MVFR at Chadron and Alliance from
09Z to 14Z. Thunderstorms in the vicinity at Sidney until 02Z.
Wind gusts to 25 knots at Scottsbluff and Sidney until 02Z, then
gusts to 25 knots at all terminals after 14Z Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Hot temperatures expected through the weekend and
into Monday. There is a risk for the development of isolated, dry
thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. These storms could produce
strong gusty and erratic winds and a few cloud to ground lightning
strikes. Strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures and
gusty northwest winds on Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...LK
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...AW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
445 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Very hot temperatures will be the primary forecast concern, and the
greatest challenge in the forecast will be how many counties to
include in a Heat Advisory. This afternoon was a small taste of what
we may be seeing tomorrow. 20Z temperatures this afternoon were well
into the upper 90s with a few 100-degree readings out there. The
hottest temperatures in western Kansas were actually at the nose of
a northwesterly downslope plume with Scott City checking in at 107
degrees on the latest 20Z observation, with a 49 degree dewpoint.
Just down Highway 83, Garden City was a good 10 degrees "cooler" at
97 with a 63 dewpoint. The early morning dewpoints of upper 60s to
around 70 degrees mixed out into the 63-65F range, but the mix-out
was not as aggressive as the RAP and HRRR models had in their
earlier morning model runs.
Tomorrow, skin-deep moisture in the morning will mix out fairly
quickly, and just about all models show surface temperatures
touching 100 by 18Z across much of southwest and west central Kansas
along and west of Highway 283. Low level moisture will be a little
deeper east of Highway 283, so the surface dewpoints will likely
hold well into the 60s and around 70 closer to central Kansas. Areas
with a 65+ dewpoint tomorrow afternoon will still likely reach the
99 to 102F range, which will put much of these areas into Heat
Advisory criteria of 105+ Heat Index. As such, we have joined
neighboring WFOs Norman and Wichita on a Head Advisory for central,
south central, and a small portion of southwest Kansas. Farther west
in the aforementioned drier region, the Heat Index is likely to be
lower than the actual air temperature, keeping these areas below the
105+ Heat Index criteria for an advisory.
We will be keeping the forecast for tonight dry, although we will
need to watch the higher terrain areas out west of our forecast area
in case thunderstorm activity grows into a small cluster and
approaches our western counties. A much more formidable severe MCS
will remain well to our east across far eastern Kansas tonight. The
outflow from this MCS early tomorrow morning may push as far west as
our eastern counties (Ellis down to Barber), which would enhance the
easterly push of lower 70s dewpoints into these areas. Any easterly
morning wind will become southeast or just simply light and variable
by afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
The current heat wave will continue through Monday. In fact, Monday
could very well be the hottest of the 3 days for much of our region
with 105+ likely across much of western Kansas. It would not be
surprising to see a couple 108F readings Monday afternoon across
western Kansas given the aggressive southwesterly downslope
momentum, thanks to increased mid level southwesterly momentum
across the Rockies. A cold front will push south across western
Kansas early in the day Tuesday, providing at least a little bit of
a relief from the heat. Somewhere along the front Tuesday afternoon,
thunderstorms will likely develop across southern/central Kansas,
but much of this activity is likely to be confined to areas of
central and south central Kansas just to the east of our forecast
area. The front will likely remain south of southwest Kansas on
Wednesday, but is expected to dissolve by Thursday as the next 500mb
high expands across the Central Plains. Another heat wave is then
expected to develop Friday through the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 445 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF cycle, with nothing more
than a few cumulus during the hottest afternoon hours, and some
scattered cirrus at times. Winds will remain variable in
direction, but also remain light, at 12 kts or less. Extremely hot
temperatures are expected at all airports both Sunday and Monday
afternoons.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 104 76 105 / 0 0 10 0
GCK 68 104 72 105 / 0 0 10 0
EHA 67 103 72 104 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 69 106 75 104 / 0 0 10 0
HYS 68 98 74 104 / 0 0 20 0
P28 71 105 78 102 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
.Update...
Issued at 642 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2022
Thunderstorms have developed across SE NE and S IA. One very large
storm is racing its way south toward Manhattan, KS. This storm is
very impressive after working its way well into the highly
unstable air across the region. There have been reports of very
large hail and a few possible tornadoes. The anvil blowoff from
this storm extends all the way over the KC metro. This storm will
remain well to our west.
More applicable to our area, a complex of thunderstorms is
organizing south of Omaha, NE. This complex is anticipated to
move south along the MO River. These storms are moving much slower
expecting to reach St Joseph and the KC metro in the next 2-3.5
hours. The threat for high winds, large hail, heavy rain (with
isolated flash flooding) and an isolated tornado remain.
&&
.Discussion...
Issued at 333 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2022
Key Messages
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms preempt an anticipated larger
complex of showers and thunderstorms later this evening. These
storms are expected to work their way north to south through the
evening and late overnight hours.
- Most hazards are going to be associated with this later complex.
The most likely hazards are large hail, gusty winds, and heavy
rainfall. Low visibilities and ponding on roads is possible making
travel hazardous; however, the flash flooding threat remains low.
Some tornadoes cannot be ruled out especially during the initial
development of the complex this evening across NW MO and NE KS. The
tornado threat is expected to decrease through the evening, but not
disappear.
- Please have multiple ways to receive weather information and
alerts and be weather aware whether at home or on the town.
Conditions are expected to change quickly as storms approach.
What is expected?...
Showers and thunderstorms are developing across SW IA and moving
into NW MO. These storms are developing a little earlier than
initially anticipated. The good news is that these smaller storms
are using some of the available energy in the region which may
decrease the strength of later storms. However, this is not a
guarantee as clearing plus continued warm air advection can quickly
replenish atmospheric conditions. It is still possible for there to
be discrete supercells across NW MO and far NE KS during the initial
development of storms. This storm mode is the most favorable for
higher magnitudes of severe weather including large hail and an
isolated tornado. This does not mean that once the thunderstorm
complex organizes that the severe threat is over. As storm mode
changes to more clustered cells, high winds become the primary
threat. Heavy rainfall is also likely as the atmosphere is very
moist. Large hail and an isolated tornado remain possible as the
storms move southward.
Are you sure that we will get storms?...
Throughout the morning, the consensus of model forecast solutions
and expert analysis suggest a high likelihood of potentially severe
storms working north to south from SE IA through W MO/far E KS. This
confluence of guidance increase confidence in the forecast. There
are some model solutions that deviate the track substantially east
or west; however, confidence is low in these outliers, that said, it
is not impossible, just less likely. Showers and thunderstorms have
initiated across S IA and N MO which was a little earlier than
anticipated. It is uncertain how these storms will impact the later
environment. Usually any preemptive convection results in a less
favorable environment later in the day; however, there is so much
moisture and warm air being pushed into the area that the atmosphere
can recharge and revert conditions back to before these early storms.
What can I do ahead of time?...
There are several easy things you can do ahead of potential storms.
- Tie down any loose outdoor objects. High winds are anticipated.
- Please ensure that you have multiple methods to receive weather
information especially during the night. Conditions are expected to
change fairly quickly as the leading edge of storms approach.
- Have a plan for where to go in your home or venue if you need to
shelter from hazardous weather.
But I want to know the details of the forecast...
A large upper level ridge is steadily making its way into the area.
Lower level flow remains out of the south which is feeding warm air
and moisture into the region. More substantial warm air advection
over central KS creates an area of highly unstable air. Extensive
capping kudoed to warm midlevel advection curtails widespread
convective development across eastern KS. However, this does create
a large dome of warm, unstable air that is waiting to be tapped. The
catalyst is a lower level low pressure riding along the swift NW to
SE upper level flow. This low is anticipated to move into SW IA late
this afternoon triggering thunderstorms across SW IA and NW MO. 2000-
3000 J/kgK of CAPE, deep lapse rates, and bulk shear of 30-40 kts
indicate the potential for all severe hazards including large hail,
high winds, and tornadoes.
As more cells develop, the complex begins to track down the CAPE
gradient which is slightly to the west but more or less parallels
the MO/KS state line. The HRRR has been one of the more aggressive
storm mode models hinting at a complex of thunderstorms with
potentially embedded supercells reaching the KC metro around 9-11
PM. Once again, this is one of the most aggressive solutions, but not
outside of the realm of possibility given the highly unstable
environment across far eastern KS. The most likely hazards are high
winds and periods of torrential rainfall. Some isolated hail greater
than 1 inch and an embedded tornado are possible. This storm
complex is expected to move out of the region around 3-4 AM.
It is also worth noting that is its quite hot and unpleasant Sunday
and Monday. High temperatures are going to be in the mid to upper
90s with dewpoints in the 70s Sunday (rainfall tonight will not
help) resulting in heat indicies above 100F. Please prepare for
these conditions if you are working and/or attending any outdoor
events during the day Sunday and Monday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2022
A complex of thunderstorms is currently making its way south from
NE and IA. Conditions are expected to remain VFR outside of the
storms; however, conditions are expected to quickly deteriorate as
storms approach and affect the terminals. There are some
uncertainties in storm timing as storm motions have been quite
variable; therefore, the window for storms is probably a little
larger than what will be experienced. Southerly winds are
expected to remain gusty ahead of the arrival of thunderstorms.
Once storms depart the region, VFR conditions return with winds
becoming light and variable then becoming more southeasterly.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ011-020>022-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
Update...Pesel
Discussion...Pesel
Aviation...Pesel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
820 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Somewhat complex forecast update for the remainder of tonight.
Thunderstorms just west of the forecast area have fallen apart
once they enter the forecast area. One storm west of the area had
a wind gust to 49 mph.
The 00z NAM has a 700mb theta-e axis north of the interstate at
present time which is where storms are approaching from the west.
DCAPE values in this area around 1500 J/KG supporting damaging
wind gusts.
By 06z the NAM has about 2K Joules of CAPE at 2km with no CIN over
far eastern Colorado with the instability axis is flowing into it
from the east. Both it and the HRRR show precipitation developing
or moving in from the west. As this area of instability moves east
and along I-70 by 09z DCAPE values increase somewhat with both
NAM/HRRR showing a small MCS type feature with potentially
damaging wind gusts the primary hazard. By 12z, this feature
should be out of the area.
HRRR wind gusts from the latest 01z run are a bit lower compared
to the 00z run but still suggest gusts up to 70 mph or so. HRRR
also continuing to show a heat burst signature featuring
temperatures just ahead of the stronger wind gusts reaching the
lower 90s with relative humidity falling into the 15 to 20 percent
range. The timing of this potential heat burst is similar to
climatology for the area.
So for the update I`ve started with extending the slight chance
pops, following the NAM and HRRR to an extent. Once confidence
increases in the event underway pops would be increased.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Upper ridge centered over the southern plains today will gradually
shift eastward on Sunday and Monday with a southwesterly flow
aloft through Tuesday. Embedded shortwaves will support a chance
for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, and once again
Tuesday evening. Temperatures will be much above normal through
the period with record high temperatures possible each day.
First chances for thunderstorms will be on Sunday. Appears storms
will initiate along subtle surface convergence boundary which will
separate dew points in the 50s to the north from the 30s and 40s
to the south. It will lie roughly along a Yuma to Russell Springs
line at 20-21z when models forecast initiation to occur. Storms
will then move northeast through the afternoon and evening,
exiting the area around 03z Sunday night. Environment is forecast
to be moderately unstable northeast of the boundary with deep
layer shear of around 35 kts. Models suggest discrete cells
initially will quickly form into a cluster as they move
northeast. SPC has Slight Risk across the area which seems
reasonable in this set up. Wind and hail will be the main hazards,
with deep layer shear limiting potential for supercells/tornadoes.
High temperatures will once again top out around 100 and lows
Sunday night in the 60s to lower 70s.
Monday will be hot, breezy and dry, although cannot totally rule
out an isolated high based storm in the afternoon that produces
little if any precipitation. Breezy to windy southwest winds
gusting to around 45 mph will introduce additional downslope
warming to an already hot set up, and record breaking temperatures
well into the 100s are expected, might see a few locations in
typically hot areas around Hill City reach 110. Apparent
temperatures will be a bit less with low humidity, topping out in
the 90s in western areas and lower 100s in eastern areas, where a
heat advisory may be needed. Cold front will move through late
Monday night with winds shifting to northwest. Low temperatures
will range from the upper 50s behind the front in Colorado to the
middle 70s ahead of it in north central Kansas.
Front should make its way through the entire forecast area by
Tuesday morning, but stall out in southern areas midday before
trying to retreat northward Tuesday afternoon. Will get a break
from the extreme heat on Tuesday, but still see highs ranging from
the upper 80s in Colorado to the upper 90s around Hill City.
Upper trough will swing through Tuesday night with best chances
for showers and thunderstorms north of Interstate 70 where
stationary front may be located. Deep layer shear will be quite
strong, perhaps too strong as instability is forecast to be weak
and limited to a narrow area along/north of the front. As a
result, severe risk appears to be fairly low. Low temperatures
Tuesday night will range from the upper 40s to upper 50s, slightly
below normal.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022
The long term period will be dry with seasonable temperatures on
Wednesday that rise to well above average values again by Friday
and Saturday.
Southwest flow aloft becomes zonal and weaker as the upper low
pressure area moves into the Great Lakes region and high pressure
expands across the Plains as a ridge amplifies and moves across
the Rockies and High Plains by late Thursday. The upper ridge
continues east over the central continental U.S. on Friday and
into the Mississippi Valley region by late Saturday as the
incoming west coast trough rides up the back side of the ridge.
Cooler air behind a cold front remains across the central High
Plains region on Wednesday and begins modifying on Thursday as
near surface flow turns back to the south as a warm front lifts
across the region. High temperatures will be near average for this
time of year with highs on Wednesday in the 80s and lows mainly
in the 50s.
Temperatures continue to rise with gusty south to southwest near
surface winds aiding in the warming and drying of the airmass
Friday and Saturday in advance of the surface trough deepening
along the Front Range ahead of the incoming upper trough. Highs by
Saturday are expected to be back up in the middle 90s to lower
100s with lows in the 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 455 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022
KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will
be all over the compass for the next 24 hours. Tonight, east winds
up to 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the south then southwest
at similar speeds. On Sunday, winds should be from the north up to
10kts, veering to the east then southeast through the day.
Thunderstorms are possible this evening in the 03z-06z timeframe.
Given the isolated nature and low confidence that any of them
would directly impact the terminal will be keeping them out of the
forecast at this time.
KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds
tonight generally from the northeast and east up to 10kts becoming
light and variable after midnight. On Sunday, northeast winds up
to 10kts in the morning should veer to the east then southeast
through the afternoon at similar speeds. No precipitation is
expected at this time.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
937 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Coverage of rain showers has been quite limited so far and
judging by upstream trends rain probabilities may diminish
even further overnight. Will have to maintain at least a small
pop through the night however since the cold front will be
dropping through. Thunder threat is even lower but an isolated
storm can`t be completely ruled out with 400-800 j/kg RAP MUcape
lingering much of the night, especially south and east of GRR.
Patchy fog may form once again overnight since dew pts are near
60 and the winds are light. Extensive cloud cover should keep
that threat in check, although if any decent areas of clearing
develop for long enough overnight it could be more of an issue.
Allowed the marine dense fog advisory to expire at 8 PM since
webcams and observations indicate that it lifted. However there is
a chance that dense fog will return again late tonight into early
Sunday as the cold front sags southward down the lake. At this
point will keep patchy fog in the nearshore forecast, but will
continue to monitor the need for another marine dense fog advisory
for late tonight into mid morning Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022
-- Showers and possibly a storm this evening and tonight --
A shortwave trough will pivot through the Great Lakes tonight and
bring chances for showers. The highest concentration of
precipitation at this time is over Wisconsin and these showers
will move through the area this evening into the overnight. Models
are not bullish on pops and neither are we in the forecast. We
have 20-40 percent chances for rain in the forecast. As for the
threat of thunder, the chances are even a bit lower and are likely
in the 10-20 percent range at any one place. The precipitation
will taper off late tonight and Sunday morning.
-- Threat for storms on the warm front on Monday --
There is some indication in model data that a nocturnal low level
jet will initiate a MCS off to our west Sunday night. This complex
of storms will likely be in the vicinity of Northern Iowa /
Southern Minnesota as we head into Monday morning. The 3km NAM
shows this complex surviving through the daylight hours of Monday
morning near and north of a warm front. The storms may push across
Lake Michigan and into Western Lower Michigan Monday afternoon.
These storms have the potential to be severe with wind and hail
the main threats. We have some time to monitor this threat, but it
will be the focus of the forecast the remainder of the weekend.
The cold lake will be a player in how these storms evolve, but
this is the time of year where storms can remain elevated above
the cold stable lake air. This would especially be the case if the
warm front remains a bit off to the south.
-- Heat remains on for Tuesday and Wednesday --
850mb temperatures continue to be forecast to surge above 20C.
This is not a common occurrence here in the Great Lakes. We
usually will get to near 20C in our warmer weather. Tuesday
evening, both the ECMWF and the GFS have temperatures over Lake
Michigan at 25 and 26C. We have maintained a low to mid 90s
forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. ECMWF MOS guidance remains in
the low 90s at GRR, but think we will see warmer readings than
that both here in Grand Rapids and off to the south and east as
well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Have removed all VCTS from the TAFs as support for thunder not
high enough to include at the terminals tonight and not seeing
any upstream currently. Will carry only VCSH with predominately
VFR conditions as the showers are expected to be only widely
scattered and mainly light.
However there is a risk for a period of MVFR conditions for a few
hours, roughly 09Z to 13Z, as the cold front is coming through.
Also a risk of some IFR or lower conditions again at MKG early
Sunday if lake stratus/fog rolls back in with the frontal wind
shift. Any lower cigs/vsbys expected to lift by 15Z Sunday
though, with VFR expected for the rest of the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Based on satellite and webcams we have added the northern marine
zone up near Ludington to the Marine Dense Fog Advisory and
dropped the southern one down towards South Haven. We also
extended the time through 800pm this evening. Webcams at Grand
Haven and Muskegon are both still showing considerable fog. Dry
air advects in from the north in the 800pm to 1000pm time frame so
conditions should improve this evening.
Winds and waves are expected to remain advisory levels through
the remainder of the weekend. BUFKIT overviews show winds at or
below 15 knots through 800 AM on Monday. Winds will pick up on
Monday out of the southeast with a warm front in the area. The NAM
us actually indicating winds in the evening increasing to 30-40
knots from the east-southeast. This is in response to a potential
complex of thunderstorms moving through the area. We will be
watching this time frame for both storms and potential wind.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meade
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
805 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across
central and southeast Illinois tonight and Sunday. A few of the
storms could be strong to severe Sunday afternoon. After that, a
heat wave is forecast to spread across the Midwest for Monday
through Wednesday. Peak afternoon heat indices will reach 105 to
110 degrees during this period.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
A rather challenging forecast for the evening update. Much of the
earlier showers have waned, with the storms that did form
conveniently doing so across the Indiana border. An MCS near and
west of the Kansas City area has become the dominant feature,
while scattered storms over Iowa have been weakening. The 18Z NAM
Nest had the best handle on these scenarios, and had suggested
some convection over the northern CWA toward midnight or so as the
Iowa activity moved into the region, with a MCV type feature
triggering storms further south toward sunrise. The last couple
runs of the HRRR is coming more into alignment with the current
activity, though it takes more of the midnight activity to our
north and is a little more sporadic with any storms until Sunday
morning. With the uncertainties, PoP`s have been brought down a
bit across the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Isolated convection has developed south of I-70 early afternoon
in an unstable, uncapped airmass. Lightning and locally heavy
downpours will accompany this, with a weakening trend through late
afternoon. Farther northwest, a weak shortwave disturbance was
dropping southeast across IA this afternoon, thickening mid/high
clouds downstream and spreading scattered light showers into
western IL. Will carry low chance pops for these showers over the
northeast 2/3 of the CWA into this evening. Tonight, the
convergent nose a modest 20-30 kt southwest low level will set up
across the area, within a zone of broad warm/moist ascent aloft.
This should be sufficient to fire scattered showers and storms
from 06-12z based on latest CAM guidance. Currently do not see
much of a severe risk but steepening mid level lapse rates after
midnight could lead to a hail threat, along with heavy rain rates
(PWATs rise above 1.75").
After the morning activity diminishes, a warm and increasingly
humid airmass will spread across the area Sunday afternoon.
Thermodynamic environment would support severe convection with 3-4
J/kg MLCAPE and 40- 50 kt deep layer shear. Model soundings
indicate a cap at 750 mb, but this is looking weaker on latest
guidance. Lack of a strong trigger looks to suppress
robust/widespread convection, with most of the HREF members
supporting no development whatsoever. However if there is a
focusing mechanism (that is difficult to see at this point -
possibly convergent low level flow from overnight convection or
differential heating boundaries) to break the cap all severe
hazards would be in play, thus we remain in a conditional Marginal
day 2 severe risk from SPC.
The moistening airmass will bring warmer lows in the upper 60s
tonight. Sunday`s highs are forecast in the upper 80s to lower
90s, and with dewpoints rising into the mid 70s, afternoon heat
indices in the upper 90s to near 100 are expected over the south
half of the CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Models are consistent in building strong upper level ridging and
capping northeast across the area on Monday. Surface warm front is
forecast to lift northeast during the morning and into northern IL
Monday afternoon. This will be the last shot for scattered storms
before the excessive heat turns on, with the better chances for
strong/severe convection and heavy rain north of this boundary
Monday afternoon/night. If the front were to slow, areas north of
I-74 could be affected by this activity.
The main focus of the extended forecast is an early season heat
wave that will dominate the region Monday afternoon through
Wednesday. Models are consistently showing 850 mb temps near +25
C, which supports highs in the mid/upper 90s. Sustained
south/southwest flow around a SE U.S. ridge is forecast to push
dewpoints well into the 70s through the period, and contribute to
daily maximum heat indices at 105-110F. The very humid airmass
will promote lows staying in the upper 70s. Both highs and lows
will be at or near record highs Mon-Wed. This will likely require
heat headlines, but in coordination with surrounding offices will
hold off on issuance with this package and continue to ramp up
messaging.
A shortwave trof over the northern Plains is forecast to send a
cold front southeast across the region late Wednesday afternoon
into early Thursday. Will need to monitor severe potential as
timing comes into better focus. Behind this front, somewhat cooler
and much less humid air will move into the area as high pressure
builds across the Great Lakes for the end of the week. The
reprieve from the heat looks short lived, as medium range guidance
again builds strong ridging across the central CONUS later in the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Main forecast concern will be with timing of any thunderstorms
across the area. So far, just some scattered showers moving
through central Illinois, with lightning remaining off to the east
in Indiana. More of a thunder risk appears to begin toward 06Z
around KPIA/KBMI and then 09-12Z further south, though it will be a
challenge to pinpoint this activity. Thus, not enough confidence
to go more than VCTS at this point, but will focus about a 3-4
hour period at each site for this potential. Redevelopment later
during the day on Sunday will be contingent on residual boundaries
and not easily picked out at this distance, but would probably
have the highest chance at KCMI.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center show
high probabilities for above normal temperatures through June 25.
In addition the Week 2 Hazards Outlook shows the risk of more
extreme heat affecting the Midwest early next week. Precipitation
outlooks are below normal through the period. Preparations should
be taken for a very hot and dry stretch of weather into late
June.
Record High Temperatures June 13-15th...
City Mon/Jun 13 Tue/Jun 14 Wed/Jun 15
Peoria...... 98 in 1894 99 in 1987 98 in 1894
Springfield. 95 in 2017 100 in 1987 100 in 1987
Lincoln..... 96 in 1952 97 in 1954 102 in 1987
Urbana...... 96 in 1894 100 in 1987 97 in 1987
Normal...... 99 in 1894 103 in 1894 99 in 1894
Decatur..... 99 in 1894 102 in 1987 100 in 1987
Galesburg... 95 in 1987 99 in 1987 93 in 1994
Danville.... 99 in 1894 97 in 1920 98 in 1913
Effingham... 97 in 1902 100 in 1902 101 in 1902
Paris....... 97 in 1984 98 in 1894 97 in 1925
Olney....... 99 in 1954 99 in 1897 101 in 1952
Jacksonville 98 in 1954 98 in 1954 99 in 1987
Tuscola..... 96 in 1894 98 in 1987 98 in 1987
Charleston.. 96 in 1954 96 in 2017 97 in 1913
Mattoon..... 99 in 1987 100 in 1987 100 in 1987
Record Warm Low Temperatures June 13-15th...
City Mon/Jun 13 Tue/Jun 14 Wed/Jun 15
Peoria...... 75 in 1886 77 in 1981 75 in 1886
Springfield. 76 in 2017 76 in 1994 75 in 2016
Lincoln..... 75 in 1952 73 in 1981 76 in 1991
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Geelhart
CLIMATE...07/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
647 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Near-term forecast concerns focus on potential for strong to severe
late tonight and again Sunday evening in addition to the building
heat over the next 72 hours.
Tonight...will be watching for the potential of high based
convection pushing off the higher terrain to the west. Forecast
soundings indicate elevated instability with a developing cu field
near the Cheyenne Ridge. For now, have a dry forecast across the
southwest zones. For north central Nebraska, watching two areas of
interest. The first being developing convection across western South
Dakota. Multiple CAM guidance suggests strong to severe
thunderstorms to the north diving east-southeast into far north
central Nebraska in the early morning hours Sunday. This activity
will track along a west-northwest to east-southeast instability
gradient and largely parallel to the h5 flow aloft. Though elevated
instability will exist, it will remain fairly modest (< 1000 j/kg)
with increasing capping as the overnight carries on. Because of
this, believe whatever activity can survive will be weakening as it
moves into the area. Cannot rule out some stronger storms with
isolated instances of 1 inch hail, but believe this will be the
exception and not the rule. The second area will reside along the
previously mentioned instability gradient as an elevated warm
front settles near a TIF to BVN line. Late morning runs of the
HRRR have been most aggressive with this idea and develops
scattered thunderstorms in the immediate vicinity close to
sunrise. For now, not as confident in this further south activity
but will maintain slight chance PoPs (< 25%) to account for this.
These too would potentially contain some hail up to 1" in the
stronger storms but consider this low confidence at this time.
Sunday...Further warming temperatures will be the main story for the
daytime Sunday. Strong southerly flow will continue to bolster h85
temperatures during the morning hours with only a brief switch to
northerly winds expected around midday. This wind shift will be
unlikely to affect temperatures enough with h85 values in the middle
to upper 20s deg C. Have widespread afternoon highs in the 90s to
near 100 in the far southwest. These values should fall short of any
new records and heat index concerns should fall short of
necessitating headlines at this time. Attention will then turn to
convection during the late afternoon and evening hours. As an
approaching trough moves across the Central Rockies, mid-level
height falls will begin to overspread the area. As this occurs, low-
level southeasterly flow will ramp up ushering higher quality
moisture into the area. Forecast soundings show convective
temperatures being breached by late afternoon across the Nebraska
Panhandle which will coincide with a couple passing mid-level vort
lobes. Increasing low-level convergence should allow thunderstorms
to develop along a north-south surface trough with activity tracking
east with time. As this activity moves east, it`ll encounter greater
low-level moisture and thus increasing instability east of Highway
61. Though capping will be in the increase from west to east through
the late evening, strong instability with steep lapse rates will
favor strong to severe thunderstorms across much of the area. Agree
with SPC`s decision to maintain the entire area in a Slight Risk.
Deep layer shear will be strong with an h5 jet sitting just north of
the area and low-level southeasterly flow. Forecast soundings show
fat CAPE profiles with LI values approaching -5 deg C or lower.
Given that, believe large hail will be the main threat. Given
inverted-v forecast soundings and pockets of DCAPE exceeding 1000
j/kg, will also be concerned about the potential for damaging wind
gusts though this threat may decrease over time as storms become
more elevated with eastward progression. Believe the severe threat
should decrease substantially be early Monday morning as activity
exits to the east.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Monday...likely the hottest day of the week. Upper-level trough
centered over the Great Basin will translate east during the
daytime, taking on a negative tilt as it does. Lee-cyclogenesis and
associated surface trough will set up across the Nebraska Panhandle
into northeast Colorado by the late afternoon. Placement of surface
low seems to be in fairly good agreement between deterministic and
ensemble NWP output. Both GEFS and EPS solutions depict tight
clustering of MSLP pressure centers tracking across our western
zones. Though this will likely keep greatest moisture quality to the
east, this will bring about the dry line into our southwest zones
which will lead to critical to near-critical fire weather concerns.
Increased southwesterly flow behind this feature will promote deep
mixing into anomalous warmth off the surface...exceeding the 99th
percentile in climatological values at both h7 and h85 according to
NAEFS output, or return intervals of 1 day every 10 years. EFI
product depicts anomalous event outside of model climatology with
recent uptick in SoT values suggesting potential for an exceedingly
rare event. Have seen temperatures consistently and consecutively
trend upwards over the past few forecast packages with highs in the
upper 90s for some and exceeding 100 degrees F for most. Many record
highs are forecast to be broken with monthly record highs in
jeopardy. Though air temperatures will be significant, humidity
values appear to be limiting the need for widespread heat headlines
at this time. That said, later forecast packages may require the
need to heat headlines across portions of north central Nebraska.
Whether a headline is issued or not, folks should take extra
precaution if out and about as prolonged exposure to the sun and
these temperatures can be dangerous. Given the strength of the
capping layer in place, believe any potential for thunderstorm
development be outside the local area leaving the entirety of the
daytime dry.
Tuesday...as the surface low from the day prior tracks northeast of
the local area, a Pacific cool front will dive southeast with modest
pooling of low-level moisture immediately preceding this feature.
Current thoughts are this frontal boundary will clear the area by
early afternoon leaving the area in west northwesterly surface flow.
Modest fgen in the post-frontal environment should be enough to lead
to some scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm in
the early morning hours across our far northwestern zones, but not
expecting any strong to severe threat with this. Afternoon rain and
thunderstorm potential will hinge on placement of the frontal
boundary across central Nebraska. At this time, confidence is
highest in seeing precipitation chances and with it convection
remain east of the local area. This notion is supported by the
NAM/SREF...though at the end of their respective output...but also
the ECMWF and GEM. At this point, consider the PoP forecast to be
low confidence regarding Tuesday afternoon and evening with
forecaster thoughts hedging towards a dry forecast and activity
remaining to the east. Regarding temperatures, will see a
considerable cooldown as h85 temperatures look to drop nearly 8-12
deg F from the previous day. This drop, however, will generally
return temperatures to near climatological values with near to
slightly above normal temperatures still expected for the day.
Wednesday and beyond...upper-level troughing will be slow to depart
the northern High Plains with the local area sitting under the
southern periphery of the enhanced flow aloft associated with this
feature. This will continue the somewhat active weather from
Tuesday through the middle of next week. A shortwave trough
rotating through the southwest quadrant of the upper low will
eject onto the Central and Northern Plains by early Wednesday.
This will lead to some additional rain and thunderstorm chances
locally late Tuesday into early Wednesday as another surface low
develops along the baroclinic zone associated with a stalled
surface boundary immediately southeast of the local area. Upper-
level support will quickly track north, carrying with it the
surface feature. This will push much if not all lingering
precipitation out of the area fairly early Wednesday with
westerly, drying flow across the area in its wake. This should
push the 90 degree F isotherm out of the area and allow highs to
only climb into the upper 70s to middle 80s. Given the westerly
flow, however, drier air will overspread the area which may lead
to more widespread elevated fire weather conditions. With the last
of the precipitation out, expect a dry afternoon with dry weather
continuing into Thursday and Friday as a well advertised ridge
begins to take shape across the central Rockies. This ridge will
gradually shift east with the ridge axis squarely over the Plains
states by Friday. Surface high pressure to the east will foster
southerly low-level flow which will promote warming and moistening
through the following weekend which will lead to a return to
summer-like temperatures and heat concerns.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Isolated thunderstorms may be possible in northern Nebraska
overnight, including KVTN, KANW, and KONL. Some storms may be severe
and lead to gusty erratic winds. Outside of storms, winds should
remain under 10 knots out of the east tonight, shifting to the
southeast tomorrow morning. Another round of thunderstorms will
begin to move into the forecast area late tomorrow afternoon. The
ceilometer at KVTN is inoperative and parts are on order. Will use
AMD NOT SKED until repairs are complete.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Location Monday forecast Daily record (year)
North Platte 104 103 (1952)
Valentine 99 103 (1956)
Broken Bow 102 101 (1952,68)
Imperial 106 100 (1953)
Monthly record for June
North Platte 107 (6/15/1952, 6/21/2017, 6/26/2012)
Valentine 110 (6/24/1988)
Broken Bow 107 (6/23/1937)
Imperial 110 (6/26/2012)
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Meltzer
CLIMATE...Snively
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
830 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2022
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level troffing
extending from Quebec to the Great Lakes region. In the wnw flow
into the Upper Great Lakes, a shortwave has supported sct/nmrs -shra
across the fcst area today. Early day sunshine allowed for some
modest instability to develop over the eastern fcst area. SW winds
ahead of sfc trof advected this instability out over the marine
layer where the additional lift allowed a few tsra to develop over
se Lake Superior earlier today. More recently, some lightning has
occurred from around Seney eastward. That`s been it for thunder
today. Back edge of -shra is currently progressing quickly across
western Lake Superior with -shra now scattering out over western
Upper MI. Sfc trof associated with shortwave currently runs from
eastern Lake Superior to near Gwinn to near Iron Mtn. Clouds and
-shra have resulted in cool conditions this aftn across the w and n
central fcst area. Temps in that area are currently in the 50s F.
ALong Lake Superior, temps are in the mid/upper 40s F. Temps range
up into the lower 60s F over portions of the s central and eastern
fcst area.
Ongoing -shra will end from wnw to ese during the rest of aftn into
the evening. Clearing skies/drying column with precipitable water
falling to 40-50pct of normal will support a good radiational
cooling night. However, decent wind just off the sfc per 950mb winds
will prevent ideal radiational cooling over a good portion of the
area. Winds will be lightest over the interior w, and will lean
toward the low end of avbl guidance in that area. The 12z MET has a
low of 32F at KLNL which seems too low, but it does provide an
indication of where temps could bottom out at a few of the
traditional cold spots across the interior western U.P. So, some
patchy frost is possible in the interior w overnight. Otherwise, 40s
F will be the rule for min temps. With rain that has fallen over
portions of southern Lake Superior, there could be some fog/stratus
for a time this evening where flow is onshore, but it should be
short-lived with drier air advecting into the area. Some patchy
ground fog could also develop overnight in areas that completely
decouple over the interior w.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2022
Surface high pressure under a 700-500 mb ridge sets up over Upper
Michigan Sunday morning. Northerly flow behind the departed low
quickly backs northwesterly by mid-day Sunday and then more
westerly into the early evening. The result will be cooler
onshore flow for communities along and immediately inland from
Lake Superior. The warmest temperatures are expected to peak in
the interior west. A weak lake breezy is possible for Menominee
and western Delta Counties under a weak gradient and maximized
heating west of these locations.
As the surface to 850 mb flow shifts southeasterly across the
entire U.P. Monday morning, expect an uptick in daytime
temperatures by Monday afternoon. Continued with the previous
forecast of lowering NBM guidance near Lake Michigan, while
keeping near 80 F by the late afternoon in the far west.
A warm front passing over Upper Michigan late Monday night into
Tuesday helps to increase precip chances again, along with
thunderstorm potential. Temperatures really begin to warm for
Tuesday afternoon as the warm front lifts northeast of the region.
The maximized mid-level ridge and southerly flow could create
temperatures 10-20 F above normal, especially in the interior
west. Downsloping locations could also see a few additional
degrees of warming. Another very warm day is in store for
Wednesday as a deep closed low in the southern Canadian Prairies
shifts the cold front eastward. This could be a period for severe
weather for Wed afternoon and into Wed night. Keep an eye out for
further updates over the next few days on this severe potential.
A much cooler air mass moves into the region behind the cold front
for Thursday (850 mb temps progged to drop from 21 to 10 C). The
most likely impact to the forecast at this point will be daytime
temperatures on Thursday becoming only slightly above normal,
decreased surface dewpoints and breezy westerly winds.
Deterministic guidance does point towards a solution of a
reinforcing shortwave breaking off from the deep low near
ND/MN/Manitoba Thursday morning to create another potential for
thunderstorms and showers that afternoon and evening. There is
still a fair amount of uncertainty in this secondary storm
potential for Thursday PM so left NBM guidance for the ensemble
solutions in place.
Ensemble-based solutions in the WPC Cluster Tool highlight the
increasing likelihood of a central CONUS high amplitude ridge
building back into the area by next weekend. What is still widely
varying in those solutions though is where the ridge axis will be
located so many details have to be worked out before talking
specifics for next weekend. For those that have been looking
forward to more prolonged near to above normal temperatures
though, this pattern next weekend would at least be favorable.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 824 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2022
Surface high pressure and associated drier air building in from
Ontario will result in clearing skies across Upper Michigan
tonight which will continue into Sunday. After LIFR cigs clear
out of SAW in the next hour, expect VFR conditions at all
terminals through the fcst period.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 332 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2022
High pressure building over Lake Superior tonight will keep winds
under 20kt through Sunday. A low pressure trough deepens across
the Plains Monday and Tuesday, creating a tightened gradient over
the Upper Great Lakes. Expect E to NE winds across western Lake
Superior and E to SE winds across eastern Lake Superior in this
time gusting to 25kt. Some gusts up to 30kt are likely at high obs
platforms on Tuesday. The first trough passes over Lake Superior
on Wednesday so southwest winds briefly fall below 20kt before a
second trough on Thursday again increases west gusts to 30kt.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...NLy
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...NLy
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
304 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Key Messages:
1) Hot the rest of the day and Hot again tomorrow.
2) Isolated thunder in the high terrain, especially in Pikes Peak
region later this afternoon, Isolated thunder again tomorrow
afternoon.
Currently...
It is hot! Temps were in the 100s at KPUB, KLHX, KLAA and KSPD, with
KSPD at 104 F. Over the remainder of the plains and valleys, 90s
prevailed. A cumulus field was noted in sat pix data over the higher
terrain, with the best cu fields over the La Garitas and the higher
elevations of the PPR.
Rest of Today into Tonight...
Main concern will be the hot temperatures over the region the
remainder of the afternoon, as temps may go up another degree or two
over the region. The 2nd concern today will be virga/-tsra showers
developing, especially in and around the greater PPR this afternoon
and lasting into this evening over the eastern plains mainly north
of US50, as D-CAPE values of 1000-1500 are noted and some mid lvl
moisture will be moving over this region. This scenario is shown by
the latest HRRR runs. Given this, it is not out of the question we
could see some locally strong gusty winds with these virga showers.
Additionally, later this evening it cant be ruled out that we may
see a heat burst or two as isolated virga showers linger after
nightfall
Warm temps are expected through the night. Actual mins will be
somewhat dependent on how much outflow we can get from the virga
showers, which will tend to cool things a bit given the outflow
occurs. Overall anticipate lows mainly in the 60s tonight plains and
40s to L50s over the larger valleys.
Tomorrow...
The heat continues all area. In addition, fire weather concerns ramp
up in advance of a mid level trough moving towards the region from
the west. With the gradient intensifying a bit, a lee trough
developing over the plains and the very warm temps aloft, surface
winds will be increasing over the higher terrain. For this reason a
RED FLAG warning has been issued for the SW mtns, the Southern Mtns
and the SLV. In these areas meteorological conditions will be meant,
and fuels are conducive per fuels page. Overall expect it to be a
lower end event as wind gusts will not be all that strong (G25-30
MPH).
Over the plains, there is a chance for a strong storm or two along
the sfc trough/dryline axis which will located near the border.
Primary concern would be strong sfc winds, but some larger hail
could occur if the storms linger long enough on our side of the
border.
Temps tomorrow will be similar to todays highs, with L100s over the
Lower Ark Rvr Valley from KPUB eastward, with 90s on the divides.
L90s will occur in the valleys.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022
...Key Messages
1. The heat continues the upcoming week, even with mid-week cold
front passage
2. Fire weather concerns remain into early next week in the SW/SE
Mountains and San Luis Valley...
Monday - Tuesday...Besides the heat continuing into the new work
week, stronger west-southwest winds are expected across the region
with sustained winds 20-25 MPH and gusts upwards of 35-45 MPH each
day. Across the Southeast and Southwest Mountains, including the San
Luis Valley Red Flag conditions will be present as fuels are still
deemed cured allowing for rapid fire growth. East across the Front
Range and the plains fuels are currently green enough to preclude
the need for Red Flag Warnings. Really need to stress this point
though, even with the lack of Red Flag Warnings there are still
pockets of dried and dormant fuels that will carry a fire from the I-
25 corridor eastward. The stronger winds each day, very warm
temperatures, and humidity levels in the low-teens/single digits,
are more than an enough to remain extra vigilant with your sparks.
A few days ago Tuesday looked marginal for fire weather concerns
given the quicker progression of a stronger mid-level trough sending
a cold front through the region. The troughing trends in the
ensembles have been slowly and farther north with any moisture and
frontal passage. This trend delays sending the cold front through
the area keeping us warmer, drier, and windier longer. A wind shift
to the north is not expected until later Tuesday evening at this
point.
Wednesday - Thursday...Brief cooldown on Wednesday. When we say
brief, we really mean a days worth, though the cooldown is relative
to the preceding days since we`ll still be above seasonal averages.
Temperatures climb fairly easily back to well above average on
Thursday owing to the dry airmass still in place. Good news,
stronger winds will decrease on Wednesday and Thursday with only
spotty elevated to near critical fire danger conditions.
Friday - Saturday...Watching this period for an influx in some upper-
level moisture back into the region, mostly the western part of the
region. Not quite monsoon but getting closer as mid-level ridging
slowly retrogrades towards the west with deeper, anomalous, West
Coast troughing expected. Need to watch the trends in this West
Coast troughing as it will be a big player in our moisture
production or lack of, early next week. Much of the activity will
be confined to the higher terrain, favorable upslope/windward
sides in the Southwest Mountains and along the Continental Divide,
though the flow orientation is not quite perpendicular to the
ridges, so spotty showers, 30-40% chances, are currently
forecasted. The heat continues as well across much of the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022
VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KCOS and KALS. Winds will be light and diurnally
driven.
There is a slight chance of some convective activity in the
KCOS area this afternoon, with very localized strong winds possible
associated with evaporating virga associated with high based
convective activity.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ223>225.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ223>225.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HODANISH