Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/12/22

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&& .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Warm temperatures continue into Sunday with highs in the 80s Otherwise, periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the short term with the possibility of some of those being on the strong/severe side through Monday. Deterministic models continue to show an upper level ridge over much of the Rockies. An upper level trough/low in the Pacific will start to push east, flattening out the ridge just a bit as this ridge move east into Sunday. This will lead to northwest flow aloft becoming more zonal then winds out of the southwest by 00Z Monday. This setup will continue to pump shortwave energy aloft. At 850mb, the models are in good agreement with a LLJ over much of the CWA by 06Z Monday with 25-35kt winds (Nam suggesting 40-50 kt winds at this time over southern SD). Back at the surface, a low pressure system will continue to push east/southeast with the cold front passing over the CWA overnight into early Sunday. A lee trough/low will be positioned over the Rockies Sunday with the low moving northeast Sunday night into Monday. HREF suggest some ML/MU Cape (1200 J/KG and under) this evening but decreasing overnight with bulk shear values in the 50/60kt range out of the northwest with values increasing overnight across parts of the central CWA. Higher amounts of ML/MUCAPE(1000-2500 J/KG) with bulk shear values ranging from the 60-80kts(with isolated stronger areas) out of the west are forecasted Sunday evening into the overnight hours Monday. ECMWF suggest both low level and mid-level lapse rates will be steep along with LI index below zero. NBM indicates high temps for Sunday to be well in the 80s with dewpoints by 00Z Sunday in 50s/60s, and becoming warmer through the night, ahead of the cold front. So, with daytime heating, moist air at the surface, along with these parameters mentioned, and the synoptic set up, this suggest a strong amount of positive buoyancy and energy that should break the ongoing cap by Sunday evening through the overnight with convection initiation beginning to our west. CAMs/HRRR indicate showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west reaching our western counties tonight, ahead of the cold front, then pushing east through the night. With just marginal cape, there is enough stronger winds aloft (80+ kts at 250mb) and wind shear. So some of these cells could be on the strong/severe side with the main threat being hail/gusty winds. Seems to be pretty isolated at this point. As the cold front continues to push east, most of the convective showers/tstorms should be out of the area as an inversion sets in and caps the atmosphere during the day Sunday. HRRR seems to keep a few lingering rain showers/tstorms on the border of ND/SD through 18Z. With the second system, more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to push through during late Sunday night/overnight into Monday morning, which again, could be on the stronger side. CAMs models show these storms quickly growing upscale suggested large hail, gusty winds, and possible isolated tornadoes early on. As as they move east, some CAMs indicate these cells could become linear which would suggest damaging winds becoming the main threat during the overnight. This is backed by the SPC with a slight risk for Day 1 across parts of our central and southern CWA (everywhere else being marginal). Day 2 has much of our central and western CWA in a slight risk with a marginal risk east of the James River. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 The main challenge in the extended is precipitation chances early in the period. Strong upper level ridging will build just to the east of the region on Monday, then will see southwesterly flow set up ahead of a western U.S. trough Tuesday. The trough tracks across the Northern Plains on Wednesday, followed by another strong ridge setting up over the central part of the country for the remainder of the extended period. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure will extend from Montana to Kansas Monday morning, with showers and thunderstorms possibly ongoing across parts of the northern CWA. By Monday evening, the portion of the low from southwest South Dakota to eastern Colorado will intensify, with southerly flow ushering very warm and moist air into the region. Though instability will be extreme, the afternoon will likely remain dry as H7 temps rise to around +16C, creating a very strong cap. The low and its associated frontal boundary will track across the CWA late Monday night into Tuesday morning, with a better chance for near to post frontal precipitation. Parts of the CWA may see additional precipitation late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a low pressure system tracks just south of the area, but rainfall amounts will not be significant. The remainder of the extended period looks to be dry as high pressure becomes the dominant feature over the region. Much warmer air returns to the area late in the period. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s Monday, in the mid 70s to lower 80s Tuesday, in the 70s Wednesday, in the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday, in the lower 80s to lower 90s Friday, and in the upper 80s to upper 90s Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to the lower 70s Monday night, in the 50s Tuesday night, Wednesday night and Thursday night, and in the 60s Friday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions and light winds are forecast to prevail over the next 24 hours at all 4 terminals. Drilling down to the first 6 hours of the TAF valid period, convection already ongoing out over southeast Montana is forecast to work into western South Dakota, potentially reaching the Missouri River valley (KMBG/KPIR) by 06Z. Some of the high-res details in CAM solutions suggest a couple of these storms could be bringing quite a bit of strong wind into western and central South Dakota through late this evening. As a heads up, severe TS wind gusts (~50kts) have been tempo`d in KPIR`s TAF, based on the latest guidance`s timing. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM...Parkin AVIATION...Dorn
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKDT Sat Jun 11 2022 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... A vertically stacked low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska continued to wobble around through the day today, sending bands of showers across upslope areas of Prince William Sound. An area of convergence running parallel through Cook Inlet produced showers earlier in the day, which have since dissipated as the convergence weakened. A low pressure system is dropping south across northwest and western Alaska. Southwesterly onshore flow over southwest Alaska impinging on the Alaska range, combined with an area of weak low pressure at the surface and weak divergent flow aloft to produce an area of showers and scattered thunderstorms east of Sleetmute to McGrath. Temperatures across the region are seasonal, mainly in the 60s and low 70s, with cooler readings in coastal areas and higher elevations. Despite the relative benign sounding pattern, numerous wildfires producing widespread smoke continue, mainly over southwest Alaska. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models are really in pretty good agreement through Monday, when differences develop with the evolution of the low pressure system over northwest Alaska and the next low to move into the western Gulf from the North Pacific. The low over northwest Alaska will slowly drop south to around the Yukon before wrapping around and moving back north. This will, in effect, leave a semi-persistent trough extended across southwest Alaska through Monday. This will lead to moderate temps, predominantly light winds and scattered rain showers. Embedded isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in favored upslope areas. Not much to talk about weather-wise for Southcentral through at least Monday. Seasonal temps and isolated to scattered showers and occasional thunder expected in the typical mountain areas. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Westerly winds late this afternoon and evening will gradually back to the south overnight. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Isolated showers developed today from Cook Inlet into the Susitna Valley as weak upper level waves converge over the area from both east and west. Instability parameters (including CAPE, LI and Totals Total) suggest there is potential for thunderstorms over portions of Southcentral this afternoon/evening including the Alaska Range, Talkeetnas Mountains. More isolated showers/tsra will be possible Sunday. Monday, a closed low from the North Pacific will move south of Kodiak and the moisture plume will move across Kodiak Island through Tuesday. The leading edge of the precipitation shield will bring rain to Seldovia, the Gulf side of the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. The are 74 active fires in Alaska today. On satellite imagery a plume of smoke was detected over Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Range to southeast of Kodiak. This plume is over 1,100 miles long. The HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model brings this smoke towards the Parks Highway and Talkeetna. This situation is actively being monitored. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Haze and smoke from wildfires across the Southwest and AKPen will continue to lower visibility at times for at least the couple days. Cumulus clouds forming off the lee of the Kuskokwim and Alaska mountains may initiate isolated thunderstorms this evening. Chances for thunderstorms will diminish as a gradual change in the weather shifts to a relatively cooler and cloudier pattern over the next few days and into the early half of the week ahead. An upper level low over northern mainland AK will drop south leading to more widespread onshore flow as winds at the surface shift from north today to westerly by Monday afternoon. An upper jet streak will form across Southwest as the low descends south on Sunday morning through Monday. The jet streak will strengthen on Monday and become S-N oriented before weakening again Tuesday as it moves north. The low may phase with a western Gulf low and while there is lower confidence in the location of the precipitation, rain showers are expected from the AKPen and Bristol Bay, inland to the Middle Kuskokwim and Alaska Range. The best chances will be over the AKPen with the energy associated with the western Gulf system. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... An upper level ridge over Aleutians with the surface ridge axis over the western Aleutians is keeping the Bering Sea and Aleutians fairly quiet. Weak northerly flow will last until around Monday. Fog and low stratus may linger near the Pribilofs, across the Bering, and along the Aleutians towards the AKPen for at least the next couple days. A small, secondary low west of the Pribilofs is allowing for an area of clear skies and otherwise very low impact to that area. A low near Kamchatka will merge with a North Pacific low on Monday just southwest of the western Aleutians. This will push the ridge eastward and the overall synoptic flow will shift, influencing the upper level jet near the western Aleutians on Monday night. Details on the winds and onset of precipitation will depend upon the timing and placement as the lows merge. && .MARINE (Days 3 through 5:Tuesday through Thursday)... Gulf of Alaska: A North Pacific low and associated front moves into the western Gulf on Tuesday with gusty northeast winds through Shelikof Strait. As the low weakens on Wednesday, an area of high pressure builds over the Gulf through Thursday. Expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the Day 3 through 5 period. Aleutians/Bering: A well developed North Pacific low and associated front approaches the Western Aleutians on Wednesday. Winds are expected to increase to small craft with areas of gales on the Pacific side of the Western and Central Aleutians. Seas will be less than 10 feet, building to 12-15 feet on the Pacific side of the Western and Central Aleutians between Wednesday through Thursday. Forecast confidence remains low to moderate with the track and position as the low and front progresses eastward. Otherwise, winds should be less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the rest of the day on Thursday. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7:Wednesday through Saturday)... Overall, the latest operational model runs are in good agreement with the evolution and progression of the synoptic scale features, but diverge in the specific details towards the end of the period. A slow-moving retrograding upper low near western Alaska lifts slowly north, while a surface low and front is positioned in the western Gulf on Wednesday. The consensus maintains a cool and wet pattern for the southern coast for midweek before the low weakens. Meanwhile, a general warming trend is expected for much of the interior as an east-west oriented ridge builds across eastern Alaska and the Yukon. Between Friday to Saturday, however, there is considerable model spread associated with easterly waves from the AK-Yukon Territory and a possible chance of showers returning over the Copper River Basin. Out west, a deep low lifts northeastward toward the western Bering Sea on Wednesday. The GFS still seems to be the faster solution with this system as it speeds quickly eastward along the Chain. Even though there are some timing differences, much of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula can expect increasing rain chances and possible gusty winds along and ahead of the associated front as the system approaches the second half of next week. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...VR MARINE/LONG TERM...MF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1101 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Key Messages: - Some fog possible tonight - Thunderstorm complex possible Monday morning, strong to severe? - Sharp warmup (hot/humid) heading into Tuesday - Additional thunderstorm chances Tue night thru Wed night, strong to severe? Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level ridge over the Rocky Mountains and northwest flow aloft over the Upper Great Lakes Region. An impulse over western Wisconsin embedded in the northwest flow aloft/moving along weak surface warm front is producing scattered showers and isolated storms across western Wisconsin/northeast Iowa per latest mosaic radar. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY: Subsidence behind impulse will allow for diminishing scattered/isolated convection this evening into tonight. Latest 11.12z GFS/NAM/RAP show low level moisture trapped under an inversion tonight along/north of surface warm front over eastern Iowa. The deterministic models suggest low level stratus deck to form and have potential for fog development in parts of the forecast area after 06z Sunday. Forecast area should remain cloudy through the overnight. Another impulse will track along surface warm front Sunday morning. However...the 11.12z deterministic models suggest weaker moisture convergence/forcing in association with impulse and the latest hi- resolution models indicate isolated showers over the southern half of the forecast area. Will continue with small chances of showers or a storm or two Sunday morning. Then...upper level/surface ridge begins to build into the forecast area Sunday afternoon and allow for mainly dry weather. High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HEADING INTO MONDAY: Shortwave energy crossing the Northern Rockies on Sunday will likely initiate a complex of thunderstorms over the Northern Plains Sunday evening. This complex of storms will encounter a pool of 60-70F dewpoints and muggy nighttime temperatures as it crosses the Dakotas into southern Minnesota. RAP shows a sharp MUCAPE gradient in the vicinity of a warm front stretching from near the ND/SD border into southwest MN/north-central IA. Steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to the impressive instability along and south of the front will help sustain updrafts, along with a modest low level jet. Convection will be elevated with the MCS likely riding the instability gradient. Despite the elevated nature, far southwestern counties may have sufficient DCAPE to support a threat for gusty winds, along with some hail potential. Heavy rainfall is a possibility in the very moist environment (PWATs locally 2+") with favorable warm cloud depths. But the system will be progressive, mitigating any flood threat. Convective allowing models have some differences in storm timing/location/intensity, but they do show general agreement for an MCS to roll somewhere through the area roughly between 6AM to noon. Expect to see continued fluctuation in potential outcomes as the CAMs try to pin down other preceding rounds of convection upstream through Sunday. HEAT CONCERNS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY: Biggest weather story as the work week unfolds will be building heat and humidity as upper ridging amplifies over the Southeast. A developing longwave trough / upper low over the western CONUS will contribute to this amplification, while enhancing heat and moisture return northward through the Mississippi Valley. NAEFS and ECMWF show the core of the 500mb ridge exceeding all climatology over the Tennessee Valley late Monday into Tuesday. Locally, upper ridging will not be near as extreme but approaches 2 standard deviations above the mean for mid-June. 850-700mb temps present a more impressive signal locally, approaching +3 standard deviations with percentiles exceeding all climatology Monday into Tuesday. 925mb temps are progged to be around 30C. So, strong indications in guidance for a strong warmup heading into Tuesday, though it`s still a bit early to pinpoint how deeply we will mix. Most of the area is likely to climb well into the 90s (which is well supported by EPS ensemble). Indications are for a good amount of sunshine and a favorable south to southwest breeze to add to the warming cause behind a passing warm front. The whole setup described above fits the conceptual model pretty well for local office climatological studies of setups for potential record heat. Therefore, wouldn`t rule out some locations possibly flirting with upper 90s. On the other hand, soil moisture isn`t particularly lacking, which could slow the rate of warming a bit. Humidity will be on the increase Monday into Tuesday with dewpoints approaching 70, so heat indices are likely to range from 95-105. Seems likely at least parts of the area may need an eventual head advisory. The good news is the worst of the heat/humidity will be short-lived as the ridge quickly departs by Wednesday. ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TUE NIGHT - WED NIGHT: While the occluding upper/surface lows rotate into the Canadian Prairies Tuesday night, a trailing cold front from northern MN will begin to cross the forecast area heading into Wednesday. Another wave of low pressure will zip northward along the front on Wednesday. Southwest flow will direct favorable moisture transport into the area out of the front with another day of strong instability. Deep layer shear along the front looks to be adequate for organized convection Wednesday afternoon-evening, so will have to monitor the evolving severe potential over the next few days. Once the cold front exits by Thursday, an expansive surface high will build into the region to close out the week with quieter and slightly cooler (near-normal), less humid weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Current observations suggest fog and low stratus are only hours away with skies clearing somewhat at this time per GOES satellite imagery. Dewpoint depressions are less than 5F around the area and some fog is already being reported. This trend will continue and confidence is high enough now to include LIFR at KRST and IFR at KLSE - mainly ceilings. This will then slowly improve Sunday morning with KRST being a slower clean-up on ceilings than KLSE. At some point in the afternoon on Sunday, VFR should return. Storm chances on Monday morning are increasing at both sites. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DTJ/Kurz AVIATION...Baumgardt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
923 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 923 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Widespread showers and storms have moved into/developed across western North Dakota with most of the thunderstorms across the far southwest. Storms have remained on the tame side this evening, and they should remain in check and weaken even more as we approach sunset. For this update, just tweaked sky cover and precipitation chances based on the latest observations and trends UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 No major changes were needed for the early evening update. the wait continues for the larger area of thunderstorms to enter the west. Thus far, the strongest storms over eastern Montana will track mainly into South Dakota, but the environment will be favorable for a couple of stronger storms across our southwest before the night is over. So we will have to see how things evolve. Elsewhere, a few popcorn showers and storms have popped up across the north central with only some sporadic lightning strikes here and there. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 The main concern in the short term period will be thunderstorm chances. Afternoon satellite imagery shows increasing mid and high clouds in eastern Montana with some afternoon cumulus also developing. In North Dakota, stratus lingers from near Jamestown north to near Devils Lake. MRMS Composite Reflectivity mosaic shows a few showers in eastern Montana with not much currently in North Dakota. Short term high resolution model solutions generally agree that a weak wave moving through the westerly H5 flow aloft could help trigger a few showers / thunderstorms this afternoon from eastern Montana into western North Dakota that will move east tonight into early Sunday. HREF 2-5KM updraft helicity doesn`t show much of a signal across North Dakota with the better chances for organized convection across South Dakota. That being said, there are at least a member or two that do bring a weaker updraft helicity track across far southwest North Dakota later this evening, so can`t rule out the possibility of a stronger storm in that area (which is already covered well in the SPC Day 1 outlook). Convection that moves farther east overnight should be more of the general thunderstorm variety as instability decreases later tonight. Overall, it appears convection should wane Sunday morning, though a few iterations of the HRRR have been suggesting it may never completely go away. The better thunderstorm chances should come later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 The next in a series of upper waves will move into the region as a trough in South Dakota becomes better organized along with a warm front. Some recent model trends have suggested the better focus for organized convection will be across South Dakota, where the better deep layer shear and instability overlap with the stronger forcing. That being said, it could be a fairly sharp cutoff fairly close to the South Dakota border, so a few stronger to potentially severe storms in our south remain possible. This signal shows up in the latest HREF with reflectivity paintball clusters of greater than or equal to 40 dbz showing quite a few members riding along the South Dakota / North Dakota border area Sunday night. There is also a signal for some convective organization with updraft helicity neighborhood probabilities of 35 m2/s2 increasing along that same region late Sunday night into Monday morning. Convection from Sunday night could linger into early Monday, especially in the eastern half of the forecast area. Attention then turns to the potential for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night. The bottom line up front is that the potential for severe thunderstorms remains, but there are still some questions that will need to be answered to see how it all eventually comes together. Southwesterly flow aloft is expected to be in place with very warm H7 temperatures in the southwest half of the state. The better moisture / instability will be in the south central towards the James River Valley, but the warm temperatures aloft could help suppress the convective potential, at least initially. This is also supported in the forecast soundings which show a fairly strong cap in place during the afternoon. Farther west, the better forcing will exist as a H5 wave moves into the area closer to the surface boundary. This should help assist in convective initiation, but SBCAPE will be less in that region, though 0-6 deep layer shear still looks supportive of organized convection. It`s still a little too early to go too far into any potential details, but it does appear that deep layer shear vectors do become more parallel along the cold front fairly quickly, so it could be a case of seeing storms eventually becoming more clusters / lines as they evolve. Will continue to advertise the severe potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, with later forecasts likely able to hone in on the details. Once the cold front passes, cooler temperatures are expected for a couple days, before an upper ridge builds into the Northern Plains with warming temperatures. Late next week into the weekend could be quite warm with NBM 4.1 highs already showing lower 90s in parts of the area. Breaking things down a bit by looking at the 25th percentile, would still give mid 80s to around 90 in the southern half of the forecast area for Saturday. Winds will also be something to keep an eye on behind the front for Tuesday through Thursday. The ECMWF EFI has focused a bit on Wednesday for the best wind potential across the entire forecast area, but there are also some hints that Tuesday and Thursday will still be on the breezy side of things. Again, won`t go too deep into the details yet, but it`s something we will have to refine as those periods get closer. In regards to precipitation chances beyond Monday, we didn`t really stray from the NBM pops which seem reasonable based on the expected pattern. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 923 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 VFR conditions should prevail through most of the period. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase across the west tonight, and areas under the heaviest cores could see brief visibility reductions to MVFR categories. The best chance for impacts from thunderstorms will be over KDIK. KBIS and KMOT could have some storms in the vicinity tonight, but the eastern extent of convection and how it evolves also remains a bit unclear. Thus, will go with vicinity thunder at those two sites for now. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZH SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM...King AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
543 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon - Sunday Night) Issued at 304 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Mid-level cumulus has become quite extensive along much of the I80 corridor between Rawlins and Sidney this afternoon, but not before daytime high temperatures soared into the lower to middle 90s over a large portion of the area. Record to near-record highs have been observed w/ the warmest reading so far today being 95 deg F at the KCYS (Cheyenne Airport) ASOS, shattering the previous record of 92 deg F set in 2013. A few high-based showers and thunderstorms have started to develop within the aforementioned cumulus field. Do not expect this activity to become particularly intense, but will need to watch for locally strong downburst winds given large inverted-v profiles with the LCLs well above the freezing level. Flow through the boundary layer is quite weak as well, so gusts to 60+ MPH will be possible with virtually any storms. Also monitoring areas along a line from Douglas-Lusk-Alliance over the next several hours. The HRRR remains quiet in this area, but has seemed to suffer from too aggressive of low-level mixing with current observed dew points 10 deg F higher than HRRR guidance suggests. The NAM12 is on the more moist side, but does hint at possible CI later this afternoon with an H5 speed max tracking just to the north. Overall shear profiles would support supercell development if initiation occurs. Opted to add some slight chance PoPs w/ mention of gusty winds & small hail for our far north through 03z. Another very warm day on Sunday as 700 millibar temperatures climb to +18 deg C over much of the CWA. Daytime highs could be a couple degrees lower than today as clouds should begin to increase a good bit earlier in the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop across a large part of the area, although the best low-lvl moisture and resultant instability for stronger convection will be just to the north and east of the CWA. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk on Day 2 which just clips our far eastern zones. Overall, the threat for gusty winds will be the primary concern once again with the large inverted-v profiles over much of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Monday - Saturday) Issued at 304 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon in our far northeastern portions of our CWA, including Niobrara (WY), Sioux (NE), and Dawes (NE) Counties. Primary threats will be lightning, large hail, and damaging winds. 2) Rain showers expected in other portions of the CWA ahead of the cool frontal passage, especially west of the Laramie Range. 3) Near record breaking high temperatures Monday. Temperatures cool down Tuesday and Wednesday with the cool frontal passage. Then, Thursday hot and dry conditions return with temperatures back to well above-normal for this time of year. DISCUSSION: Primary changes made to the long term forecast were in temperatures Monday, increasing them a degree or two, especially in the southern Nebraska panhandle where we could see into triple digits; and decreasing PoPs Monday evening in the Nebraska panhandle. Model guidance is currently split between the GFS and NAM showing pretty much no precipitation east of the Laramie Range and the ECMWF and Canadian showing guaranteed precipitation in at least the northern Nebraska panhandle. So naturally, the NBM split it down the middle. This forecast package, the PoPs were cut significantly as I am leaning more towards the drier solutions. Beginning Monday night, the forecast is back on track with little to no changes from the previous forecast. The cold (more like cool) front will begin to push into far western portions of our CWA by Monday evening and be pushed all the way through the CWA to the southeast by Tuesday evening. Temperatures will be right around normal Tuesday with highs in the 60s west of the Laramie Range and 70s to low 80s east of the Laramie Range. Wednesday the ridge begins to build back in bringing in hot and dry conditions through Thursday. Friday will be the next chance of precipitation for southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle as some guidance is showing a surge of moisture into the Nebraska panhandle with some instability. If this solution holds on, I would not be surprised to see an upward trend in the precipitation chances Friday afternoon. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 540 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Wyoming TAFS...VFR. Wind gusts to 35 knots until 02Z, then gusts to 35 knots after 15Z Sunday. Nebraska TAFS...VFR, except for MVFR at Chadron and Alliance from 09Z to 14Z. Thunderstorms in the vicinity at Sidney until 02Z. Wind gusts to 25 knots at Scottsbluff and Sidney until 02Z, then gusts to 25 knots at all terminals after 14Z Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Hot temperatures expected through the weekend and into Monday. There is a risk for the development of isolated, dry thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. These storms could produce strong gusty and erratic winds and a few cloud to ground lightning strikes. Strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures and gusty northwest winds on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...LK AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...AW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
445 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Very hot temperatures will be the primary forecast concern, and the greatest challenge in the forecast will be how many counties to include in a Heat Advisory. This afternoon was a small taste of what we may be seeing tomorrow. 20Z temperatures this afternoon were well into the upper 90s with a few 100-degree readings out there. The hottest temperatures in western Kansas were actually at the nose of a northwesterly downslope plume with Scott City checking in at 107 degrees on the latest 20Z observation, with a 49 degree dewpoint. Just down Highway 83, Garden City was a good 10 degrees "cooler" at 97 with a 63 dewpoint. The early morning dewpoints of upper 60s to around 70 degrees mixed out into the 63-65F range, but the mix-out was not as aggressive as the RAP and HRRR models had in their earlier morning model runs. Tomorrow, skin-deep moisture in the morning will mix out fairly quickly, and just about all models show surface temperatures touching 100 by 18Z across much of southwest and west central Kansas along and west of Highway 283. Low level moisture will be a little deeper east of Highway 283, so the surface dewpoints will likely hold well into the 60s and around 70 closer to central Kansas. Areas with a 65+ dewpoint tomorrow afternoon will still likely reach the 99 to 102F range, which will put much of these areas into Heat Advisory criteria of 105+ Heat Index. As such, we have joined neighboring WFOs Norman and Wichita on a Head Advisory for central, south central, and a small portion of southwest Kansas. Farther west in the aforementioned drier region, the Heat Index is likely to be lower than the actual air temperature, keeping these areas below the 105+ Heat Index criteria for an advisory. We will be keeping the forecast for tonight dry, although we will need to watch the higher terrain areas out west of our forecast area in case thunderstorm activity grows into a small cluster and approaches our western counties. A much more formidable severe MCS will remain well to our east across far eastern Kansas tonight. The outflow from this MCS early tomorrow morning may push as far west as our eastern counties (Ellis down to Barber), which would enhance the easterly push of lower 70s dewpoints into these areas. Any easterly morning wind will become southeast or just simply light and variable by afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 The current heat wave will continue through Monday. In fact, Monday could very well be the hottest of the 3 days for much of our region with 105+ likely across much of western Kansas. It would not be surprising to see a couple 108F readings Monday afternoon across western Kansas given the aggressive southwesterly downslope momentum, thanks to increased mid level southwesterly momentum across the Rockies. A cold front will push south across western Kansas early in the day Tuesday, providing at least a little bit of a relief from the heat. Somewhere along the front Tuesday afternoon, thunderstorms will likely develop across southern/central Kansas, but much of this activity is likely to be confined to areas of central and south central Kansas just to the east of our forecast area. The front will likely remain south of southwest Kansas on Wednesday, but is expected to dissolve by Thursday as the next 500mb high expands across the Central Plains. Another heat wave is then expected to develop Friday through the next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 445 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF cycle, with nothing more than a few cumulus during the hottest afternoon hours, and some scattered cirrus at times. Winds will remain variable in direction, but also remain light, at 12 kts or less. Extremely hot temperatures are expected at all airports both Sunday and Monday afternoons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 69 104 76 105 / 0 0 10 0 GCK 68 104 72 105 / 0 0 10 0 EHA 67 103 72 104 / 0 10 10 0 LBL 69 106 75 104 / 0 0 10 0 HYS 68 98 74 104 / 0 0 20 0 P28 71 105 78 102 / 0 0 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Turner
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 .Update... Issued at 642 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2022 Thunderstorms have developed across SE NE and S IA. One very large storm is racing its way south toward Manhattan, KS. This storm is very impressive after working its way well into the highly unstable air across the region. There have been reports of very large hail and a few possible tornadoes. The anvil blowoff from this storm extends all the way over the KC metro. This storm will remain well to our west. More applicable to our area, a complex of thunderstorms is organizing south of Omaha, NE. This complex is anticipated to move south along the MO River. These storms are moving much slower expecting to reach St Joseph and the KC metro in the next 2-3.5 hours. The threat for high winds, large hail, heavy rain (with isolated flash flooding) and an isolated tornado remain. && .Discussion... Issued at 333 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2022 Key Messages - Isolated showers and thunderstorms preempt an anticipated larger complex of showers and thunderstorms later this evening. These storms are expected to work their way north to south through the evening and late overnight hours. - Most hazards are going to be associated with this later complex. The most likely hazards are large hail, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Low visibilities and ponding on roads is possible making travel hazardous; however, the flash flooding threat remains low. Some tornadoes cannot be ruled out especially during the initial development of the complex this evening across NW MO and NE KS. The tornado threat is expected to decrease through the evening, but not disappear. - Please have multiple ways to receive weather information and alerts and be weather aware whether at home or on the town. Conditions are expected to change quickly as storms approach. What is expected?... Showers and thunderstorms are developing across SW IA and moving into NW MO. These storms are developing a little earlier than initially anticipated. The good news is that these smaller storms are using some of the available energy in the region which may decrease the strength of later storms. However, this is not a guarantee as clearing plus continued warm air advection can quickly replenish atmospheric conditions. It is still possible for there to be discrete supercells across NW MO and far NE KS during the initial development of storms. This storm mode is the most favorable for higher magnitudes of severe weather including large hail and an isolated tornado. This does not mean that once the thunderstorm complex organizes that the severe threat is over. As storm mode changes to more clustered cells, high winds become the primary threat. Heavy rainfall is also likely as the atmosphere is very moist. Large hail and an isolated tornado remain possible as the storms move southward. Are you sure that we will get storms?... Throughout the morning, the consensus of model forecast solutions and expert analysis suggest a high likelihood of potentially severe storms working north to south from SE IA through W MO/far E KS. This confluence of guidance increase confidence in the forecast. There are some model solutions that deviate the track substantially east or west; however, confidence is low in these outliers, that said, it is not impossible, just less likely. Showers and thunderstorms have initiated across S IA and N MO which was a little earlier than anticipated. It is uncertain how these storms will impact the later environment. Usually any preemptive convection results in a less favorable environment later in the day; however, there is so much moisture and warm air being pushed into the area that the atmosphere can recharge and revert conditions back to before these early storms. What can I do ahead of time?... There are several easy things you can do ahead of potential storms. - Tie down any loose outdoor objects. High winds are anticipated. - Please ensure that you have multiple methods to receive weather information especially during the night. Conditions are expected to change fairly quickly as the leading edge of storms approach. - Have a plan for where to go in your home or venue if you need to shelter from hazardous weather. But I want to know the details of the forecast... A large upper level ridge is steadily making its way into the area. Lower level flow remains out of the south which is feeding warm air and moisture into the region. More substantial warm air advection over central KS creates an area of highly unstable air. Extensive capping kudoed to warm midlevel advection curtails widespread convective development across eastern KS. However, this does create a large dome of warm, unstable air that is waiting to be tapped. The catalyst is a lower level low pressure riding along the swift NW to SE upper level flow. This low is anticipated to move into SW IA late this afternoon triggering thunderstorms across SW IA and NW MO. 2000- 3000 J/kgK of CAPE, deep lapse rates, and bulk shear of 30-40 kts indicate the potential for all severe hazards including large hail, high winds, and tornadoes. As more cells develop, the complex begins to track down the CAPE gradient which is slightly to the west but more or less parallels the MO/KS state line. The HRRR has been one of the more aggressive storm mode models hinting at a complex of thunderstorms with potentially embedded supercells reaching the KC metro around 9-11 PM. Once again, this is one of the most aggressive solutions, but not outside of the realm of possibility given the highly unstable environment across far eastern KS. The most likely hazards are high winds and periods of torrential rainfall. Some isolated hail greater than 1 inch and an embedded tornado are possible. This storm complex is expected to move out of the region around 3-4 AM. It is also worth noting that is its quite hot and unpleasant Sunday and Monday. High temperatures are going to be in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in the 70s Sunday (rainfall tonight will not help) resulting in heat indicies above 100F. Please prepare for these conditions if you are working and/or attending any outdoor events during the day Sunday and Monday. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2022 A complex of thunderstorms is currently making its way south from NE and IA. Conditions are expected to remain VFR outside of the storms; however, conditions are expected to quickly deteriorate as storms approach and affect the terminals. There are some uncertainties in storm timing as storm motions have been quite variable; therefore, the window for storms is probably a little larger than what will be experienced. Southerly winds are expected to remain gusty ahead of the arrival of thunderstorms. Once storms depart the region, VFR conditions return with winds becoming light and variable then becoming more southeasterly. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ011-020>022- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. && $$ Update...Pesel Discussion...Pesel Aviation...Pesel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
820 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 820 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Somewhat complex forecast update for the remainder of tonight. Thunderstorms just west of the forecast area have fallen apart once they enter the forecast area. One storm west of the area had a wind gust to 49 mph. The 00z NAM has a 700mb theta-e axis north of the interstate at present time which is where storms are approaching from the west. DCAPE values in this area around 1500 J/KG supporting damaging wind gusts. By 06z the NAM has about 2K Joules of CAPE at 2km with no CIN over far eastern Colorado with the instability axis is flowing into it from the east. Both it and the HRRR show precipitation developing or moving in from the west. As this area of instability moves east and along I-70 by 09z DCAPE values increase somewhat with both NAM/HRRR showing a small MCS type feature with potentially damaging wind gusts the primary hazard. By 12z, this feature should be out of the area. HRRR wind gusts from the latest 01z run are a bit lower compared to the 00z run but still suggest gusts up to 70 mph or so. HRRR also continuing to show a heat burst signature featuring temperatures just ahead of the stronger wind gusts reaching the lower 90s with relative humidity falling into the 15 to 20 percent range. The timing of this potential heat burst is similar to climatology for the area. So for the update I`ve started with extending the slight chance pops, following the NAM and HRRR to an extent. Once confidence increases in the event underway pops would be increased. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 225 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Upper ridge centered over the southern plains today will gradually shift eastward on Sunday and Monday with a southwesterly flow aloft through Tuesday. Embedded shortwaves will support a chance for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, and once again Tuesday evening. Temperatures will be much above normal through the period with record high temperatures possible each day. First chances for thunderstorms will be on Sunday. Appears storms will initiate along subtle surface convergence boundary which will separate dew points in the 50s to the north from the 30s and 40s to the south. It will lie roughly along a Yuma to Russell Springs line at 20-21z when models forecast initiation to occur. Storms will then move northeast through the afternoon and evening, exiting the area around 03z Sunday night. Environment is forecast to be moderately unstable northeast of the boundary with deep layer shear of around 35 kts. Models suggest discrete cells initially will quickly form into a cluster as they move northeast. SPC has Slight Risk across the area which seems reasonable in this set up. Wind and hail will be the main hazards, with deep layer shear limiting potential for supercells/tornadoes. High temperatures will once again top out around 100 and lows Sunday night in the 60s to lower 70s. Monday will be hot, breezy and dry, although cannot totally rule out an isolated high based storm in the afternoon that produces little if any precipitation. Breezy to windy southwest winds gusting to around 45 mph will introduce additional downslope warming to an already hot set up, and record breaking temperatures well into the 100s are expected, might see a few locations in typically hot areas around Hill City reach 110. Apparent temperatures will be a bit less with low humidity, topping out in the 90s in western areas and lower 100s in eastern areas, where a heat advisory may be needed. Cold front will move through late Monday night with winds shifting to northwest. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s behind the front in Colorado to the middle 70s ahead of it in north central Kansas. Front should make its way through the entire forecast area by Tuesday morning, but stall out in southern areas midday before trying to retreat northward Tuesday afternoon. Will get a break from the extreme heat on Tuesday, but still see highs ranging from the upper 80s in Colorado to the upper 90s around Hill City. Upper trough will swing through Tuesday night with best chances for showers and thunderstorms north of Interstate 70 where stationary front may be located. Deep layer shear will be quite strong, perhaps too strong as instability is forecast to be weak and limited to a narrow area along/north of the front. As a result, severe risk appears to be fairly low. Low temperatures Tuesday night will range from the upper 40s to upper 50s, slightly below normal. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 228 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 The long term period will be dry with seasonable temperatures on Wednesday that rise to well above average values again by Friday and Saturday. Southwest flow aloft becomes zonal and weaker as the upper low pressure area moves into the Great Lakes region and high pressure expands across the Plains as a ridge amplifies and moves across the Rockies and High Plains by late Thursday. The upper ridge continues east over the central continental U.S. on Friday and into the Mississippi Valley region by late Saturday as the incoming west coast trough rides up the back side of the ridge. Cooler air behind a cold front remains across the central High Plains region on Wednesday and begins modifying on Thursday as near surface flow turns back to the south as a warm front lifts across the region. High temperatures will be near average for this time of year with highs on Wednesday in the 80s and lows mainly in the 50s. Temperatures continue to rise with gusty south to southwest near surface winds aiding in the warming and drying of the airmass Friday and Saturday in advance of the surface trough deepening along the Front Range ahead of the incoming upper trough. Highs by Saturday are expected to be back up in the middle 90s to lower 100s with lows in the 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 455 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will be all over the compass for the next 24 hours. Tonight, east winds up to 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the south then southwest at similar speeds. On Sunday, winds should be from the north up to 10kts, veering to the east then southeast through the day. Thunderstorms are possible this evening in the 03z-06z timeframe. Given the isolated nature and low confidence that any of them would directly impact the terminal will be keeping them out of the forecast at this time. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds tonight generally from the northeast and east up to 10kts becoming light and variable after midnight. On Sunday, northeast winds up to 10kts in the morning should veer to the east then southeast through the afternoon at similar speeds. No precipitation is expected at this time. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...LOCKHART AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
937 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 937 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Coverage of rain showers has been quite limited so far and judging by upstream trends rain probabilities may diminish even further overnight. Will have to maintain at least a small pop through the night however since the cold front will be dropping through. Thunder threat is even lower but an isolated storm can`t be completely ruled out with 400-800 j/kg RAP MUcape lingering much of the night, especially south and east of GRR. Patchy fog may form once again overnight since dew pts are near 60 and the winds are light. Extensive cloud cover should keep that threat in check, although if any decent areas of clearing develop for long enough overnight it could be more of an issue. Allowed the marine dense fog advisory to expire at 8 PM since webcams and observations indicate that it lifted. However there is a chance that dense fog will return again late tonight into early Sunday as the cold front sags southward down the lake. At this point will keep patchy fog in the nearshore forecast, but will continue to monitor the need for another marine dense fog advisory for late tonight into mid morning Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 340 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 -- Showers and possibly a storm this evening and tonight -- A shortwave trough will pivot through the Great Lakes tonight and bring chances for showers. The highest concentration of precipitation at this time is over Wisconsin and these showers will move through the area this evening into the overnight. Models are not bullish on pops and neither are we in the forecast. We have 20-40 percent chances for rain in the forecast. As for the threat of thunder, the chances are even a bit lower and are likely in the 10-20 percent range at any one place. The precipitation will taper off late tonight and Sunday morning. -- Threat for storms on the warm front on Monday -- There is some indication in model data that a nocturnal low level jet will initiate a MCS off to our west Sunday night. This complex of storms will likely be in the vicinity of Northern Iowa / Southern Minnesota as we head into Monday morning. The 3km NAM shows this complex surviving through the daylight hours of Monday morning near and north of a warm front. The storms may push across Lake Michigan and into Western Lower Michigan Monday afternoon. These storms have the potential to be severe with wind and hail the main threats. We have some time to monitor this threat, but it will be the focus of the forecast the remainder of the weekend. The cold lake will be a player in how these storms evolve, but this is the time of year where storms can remain elevated above the cold stable lake air. This would especially be the case if the warm front remains a bit off to the south. -- Heat remains on for Tuesday and Wednesday -- 850mb temperatures continue to be forecast to surge above 20C. This is not a common occurrence here in the Great Lakes. We usually will get to near 20C in our warmer weather. Tuesday evening, both the ECMWF and the GFS have temperatures over Lake Michigan at 25 and 26C. We have maintained a low to mid 90s forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. ECMWF MOS guidance remains in the low 90s at GRR, but think we will see warmer readings than that both here in Grand Rapids and off to the south and east as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Have removed all VCTS from the TAFs as support for thunder not high enough to include at the terminals tonight and not seeing any upstream currently. Will carry only VCSH with predominately VFR conditions as the showers are expected to be only widely scattered and mainly light. However there is a risk for a period of MVFR conditions for a few hours, roughly 09Z to 13Z, as the cold front is coming through. Also a risk of some IFR or lower conditions again at MKG early Sunday if lake stratus/fog rolls back in with the frontal wind shift. Any lower cigs/vsbys expected to lift by 15Z Sunday though, with VFR expected for the rest of the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Based on satellite and webcams we have added the northern marine zone up near Ludington to the Marine Dense Fog Advisory and dropped the southern one down towards South Haven. We also extended the time through 800pm this evening. Webcams at Grand Haven and Muskegon are both still showing considerable fog. Dry air advects in from the north in the 800pm to 1000pm time frame so conditions should improve this evening. Winds and waves are expected to remain advisory levels through the remainder of the weekend. BUFKIT overviews show winds at or below 15 knots through 800 AM on Monday. Winds will pick up on Monday out of the southeast with a warm front in the area. The NAM us actually indicating winds in the evening increasing to 30-40 knots from the east-southeast. This is in response to a potential complex of thunderstorms moving through the area. We will be watching this time frame for both storms and potential wind. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Meade DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Meade MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
805 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across central and southeast Illinois tonight and Sunday. A few of the storms could be strong to severe Sunday afternoon. After that, a heat wave is forecast to spread across the Midwest for Monday through Wednesday. Peak afternoon heat indices will reach 105 to 110 degrees during this period. && .UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 A rather challenging forecast for the evening update. Much of the earlier showers have waned, with the storms that did form conveniently doing so across the Indiana border. An MCS near and west of the Kansas City area has become the dominant feature, while scattered storms over Iowa have been weakening. The 18Z NAM Nest had the best handle on these scenarios, and had suggested some convection over the northern CWA toward midnight or so as the Iowa activity moved into the region, with a MCV type feature triggering storms further south toward sunrise. The last couple runs of the HRRR is coming more into alignment with the current activity, though it takes more of the midnight activity to our north and is a little more sporadic with any storms until Sunday morning. With the uncertainties, PoP`s have been brought down a bit across the north. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Isolated convection has developed south of I-70 early afternoon in an unstable, uncapped airmass. Lightning and locally heavy downpours will accompany this, with a weakening trend through late afternoon. Farther northwest, a weak shortwave disturbance was dropping southeast across IA this afternoon, thickening mid/high clouds downstream and spreading scattered light showers into western IL. Will carry low chance pops for these showers over the northeast 2/3 of the CWA into this evening. Tonight, the convergent nose a modest 20-30 kt southwest low level will set up across the area, within a zone of broad warm/moist ascent aloft. This should be sufficient to fire scattered showers and storms from 06-12z based on latest CAM guidance. Currently do not see much of a severe risk but steepening mid level lapse rates after midnight could lead to a hail threat, along with heavy rain rates (PWATs rise above 1.75"). After the morning activity diminishes, a warm and increasingly humid airmass will spread across the area Sunday afternoon. Thermodynamic environment would support severe convection with 3-4 J/kg MLCAPE and 40- 50 kt deep layer shear. Model soundings indicate a cap at 750 mb, but this is looking weaker on latest guidance. Lack of a strong trigger looks to suppress robust/widespread convection, with most of the HREF members supporting no development whatsoever. However if there is a focusing mechanism (that is difficult to see at this point - possibly convergent low level flow from overnight convection or differential heating boundaries) to break the cap all severe hazards would be in play, thus we remain in a conditional Marginal day 2 severe risk from SPC. The moistening airmass will bring warmer lows in the upper 60s tonight. Sunday`s highs are forecast in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and with dewpoints rising into the mid 70s, afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100 are expected over the south half of the CWA. && .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Models are consistent in building strong upper level ridging and capping northeast across the area on Monday. Surface warm front is forecast to lift northeast during the morning and into northern IL Monday afternoon. This will be the last shot for scattered storms before the excessive heat turns on, with the better chances for strong/severe convection and heavy rain north of this boundary Monday afternoon/night. If the front were to slow, areas north of I-74 could be affected by this activity. The main focus of the extended forecast is an early season heat wave that will dominate the region Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Models are consistently showing 850 mb temps near +25 C, which supports highs in the mid/upper 90s. Sustained south/southwest flow around a SE U.S. ridge is forecast to push dewpoints well into the 70s through the period, and contribute to daily maximum heat indices at 105-110F. The very humid airmass will promote lows staying in the upper 70s. Both highs and lows will be at or near record highs Mon-Wed. This will likely require heat headlines, but in coordination with surrounding offices will hold off on issuance with this package and continue to ramp up messaging. A shortwave trof over the northern Plains is forecast to send a cold front southeast across the region late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Will need to monitor severe potential as timing comes into better focus. Behind this front, somewhat cooler and much less humid air will move into the area as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes for the end of the week. The reprieve from the heat looks short lived, as medium range guidance again builds strong ridging across the central CONUS later in the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Main forecast concern will be with timing of any thunderstorms across the area. So far, just some scattered showers moving through central Illinois, with lightning remaining off to the east in Indiana. More of a thunder risk appears to begin toward 06Z around KPIA/KBMI and then 09-12Z further south, though it will be a challenge to pinpoint this activity. Thus, not enough confidence to go more than VCTS at this point, but will focus about a 3-4 hour period at each site for this potential. Redevelopment later during the day on Sunday will be contingent on residual boundaries and not easily picked out at this distance, but would probably have the highest chance at KCMI. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center show high probabilities for above normal temperatures through June 25. In addition the Week 2 Hazards Outlook shows the risk of more extreme heat affecting the Midwest early next week. Precipitation outlooks are below normal through the period. Preparations should be taken for a very hot and dry stretch of weather into late June. Record High Temperatures June 13-15th... City Mon/Jun 13 Tue/Jun 14 Wed/Jun 15 Peoria...... 98 in 1894 99 in 1987 98 in 1894 Springfield. 95 in 2017 100 in 1987 100 in 1987 Lincoln..... 96 in 1952 97 in 1954 102 in 1987 Urbana...... 96 in 1894 100 in 1987 97 in 1987 Normal...... 99 in 1894 103 in 1894 99 in 1894 Decatur..... 99 in 1894 102 in 1987 100 in 1987 Galesburg... 95 in 1987 99 in 1987 93 in 1994 Danville.... 99 in 1894 97 in 1920 98 in 1913 Effingham... 97 in 1902 100 in 1902 101 in 1902 Paris....... 97 in 1984 98 in 1894 97 in 1925 Olney....... 99 in 1954 99 in 1897 101 in 1952 Jacksonville 98 in 1954 98 in 1954 99 in 1987 Tuscola..... 96 in 1894 98 in 1987 98 in 1987 Charleston.. 96 in 1954 96 in 2017 97 in 1913 Mattoon..... 99 in 1987 100 in 1987 100 in 1987 Record Warm Low Temperatures June 13-15th... City Mon/Jun 13 Tue/Jun 14 Wed/Jun 15 Peoria...... 75 in 1886 77 in 1981 75 in 1886 Springfield. 76 in 2017 76 in 1994 75 in 2016 Lincoln..... 75 in 1952 73 in 1981 76 in 1991 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SYNOPSIS...25 SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM...25 AVIATION...Geelhart CLIMATE...07/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
647 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Near-term forecast concerns focus on potential for strong to severe late tonight and again Sunday evening in addition to the building heat over the next 72 hours. Tonight...will be watching for the potential of high based convection pushing off the higher terrain to the west. Forecast soundings indicate elevated instability with a developing cu field near the Cheyenne Ridge. For now, have a dry forecast across the southwest zones. For north central Nebraska, watching two areas of interest. The first being developing convection across western South Dakota. Multiple CAM guidance suggests strong to severe thunderstorms to the north diving east-southeast into far north central Nebraska in the early morning hours Sunday. This activity will track along a west-northwest to east-southeast instability gradient and largely parallel to the h5 flow aloft. Though elevated instability will exist, it will remain fairly modest (< 1000 j/kg) with increasing capping as the overnight carries on. Because of this, believe whatever activity can survive will be weakening as it moves into the area. Cannot rule out some stronger storms with isolated instances of 1 inch hail, but believe this will be the exception and not the rule. The second area will reside along the previously mentioned instability gradient as an elevated warm front settles near a TIF to BVN line. Late morning runs of the HRRR have been most aggressive with this idea and develops scattered thunderstorms in the immediate vicinity close to sunrise. For now, not as confident in this further south activity but will maintain slight chance PoPs (< 25%) to account for this. These too would potentially contain some hail up to 1" in the stronger storms but consider this low confidence at this time. Sunday...Further warming temperatures will be the main story for the daytime Sunday. Strong southerly flow will continue to bolster h85 temperatures during the morning hours with only a brief switch to northerly winds expected around midday. This wind shift will be unlikely to affect temperatures enough with h85 values in the middle to upper 20s deg C. Have widespread afternoon highs in the 90s to near 100 in the far southwest. These values should fall short of any new records and heat index concerns should fall short of necessitating headlines at this time. Attention will then turn to convection during the late afternoon and evening hours. As an approaching trough moves across the Central Rockies, mid-level height falls will begin to overspread the area. As this occurs, low- level southeasterly flow will ramp up ushering higher quality moisture into the area. Forecast soundings show convective temperatures being breached by late afternoon across the Nebraska Panhandle which will coincide with a couple passing mid-level vort lobes. Increasing low-level convergence should allow thunderstorms to develop along a north-south surface trough with activity tracking east with time. As this activity moves east, it`ll encounter greater low-level moisture and thus increasing instability east of Highway 61. Though capping will be in the increase from west to east through the late evening, strong instability with steep lapse rates will favor strong to severe thunderstorms across much of the area. Agree with SPC`s decision to maintain the entire area in a Slight Risk. Deep layer shear will be strong with an h5 jet sitting just north of the area and low-level southeasterly flow. Forecast soundings show fat CAPE profiles with LI values approaching -5 deg C or lower. Given that, believe large hail will be the main threat. Given inverted-v forecast soundings and pockets of DCAPE exceeding 1000 j/kg, will also be concerned about the potential for damaging wind gusts though this threat may decrease over time as storms become more elevated with eastward progression. Believe the severe threat should decrease substantially be early Monday morning as activity exits to the east. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Monday...likely the hottest day of the week. Upper-level trough centered over the Great Basin will translate east during the daytime, taking on a negative tilt as it does. Lee-cyclogenesis and associated surface trough will set up across the Nebraska Panhandle into northeast Colorado by the late afternoon. Placement of surface low seems to be in fairly good agreement between deterministic and ensemble NWP output. Both GEFS and EPS solutions depict tight clustering of MSLP pressure centers tracking across our western zones. Though this will likely keep greatest moisture quality to the east, this will bring about the dry line into our southwest zones which will lead to critical to near-critical fire weather concerns. Increased southwesterly flow behind this feature will promote deep mixing into anomalous warmth off the surface...exceeding the 99th percentile in climatological values at both h7 and h85 according to NAEFS output, or return intervals of 1 day every 10 years. EFI product depicts anomalous event outside of model climatology with recent uptick in SoT values suggesting potential for an exceedingly rare event. Have seen temperatures consistently and consecutively trend upwards over the past few forecast packages with highs in the upper 90s for some and exceeding 100 degrees F for most. Many record highs are forecast to be broken with monthly record highs in jeopardy. Though air temperatures will be significant, humidity values appear to be limiting the need for widespread heat headlines at this time. That said, later forecast packages may require the need to heat headlines across portions of north central Nebraska. Whether a headline is issued or not, folks should take extra precaution if out and about as prolonged exposure to the sun and these temperatures can be dangerous. Given the strength of the capping layer in place, believe any potential for thunderstorm development be outside the local area leaving the entirety of the daytime dry. the surface low from the day prior tracks northeast of the local area, a Pacific cool front will dive southeast with modest pooling of low-level moisture immediately preceding this feature. Current thoughts are this frontal boundary will clear the area by early afternoon leaving the area in west northwesterly surface flow. Modest fgen in the post-frontal environment should be enough to lead to some scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm in the early morning hours across our far northwestern zones, but not expecting any strong to severe threat with this. Afternoon rain and thunderstorm potential will hinge on placement of the frontal boundary across central Nebraska. At this time, confidence is highest in seeing precipitation chances and with it convection remain east of the local area. This notion is supported by the NAM/SREF...though at the end of their respective output...but also the ECMWF and GEM. At this point, consider the PoP forecast to be low confidence regarding Tuesday afternoon and evening with forecaster thoughts hedging towards a dry forecast and activity remaining to the east. Regarding temperatures, will see a considerable cooldown as h85 temperatures look to drop nearly 8-12 deg F from the previous day. This drop, however, will generally return temperatures to near climatological values with near to slightly above normal temperatures still expected for the day. Wednesday and beyond...upper-level troughing will be slow to depart the northern High Plains with the local area sitting under the southern periphery of the enhanced flow aloft associated with this feature. This will continue the somewhat active weather from Tuesday through the middle of next week. A shortwave trough rotating through the southwest quadrant of the upper low will eject onto the Central and Northern Plains by early Wednesday. This will lead to some additional rain and thunderstorm chances locally late Tuesday into early Wednesday as another surface low develops along the baroclinic zone associated with a stalled surface boundary immediately southeast of the local area. Upper- level support will quickly track north, carrying with it the surface feature. This will push much if not all lingering precipitation out of the area fairly early Wednesday with westerly, drying flow across the area in its wake. This should push the 90 degree F isotherm out of the area and allow highs to only climb into the upper 70s to middle 80s. Given the westerly flow, however, drier air will overspread the area which may lead to more widespread elevated fire weather conditions. With the last of the precipitation out, expect a dry afternoon with dry weather continuing into Thursday and Friday as a well advertised ridge begins to take shape across the central Rockies. This ridge will gradually shift east with the ridge axis squarely over the Plains states by Friday. Surface high pressure to the east will foster southerly low-level flow which will promote warming and moistening through the following weekend which will lead to a return to summer-like temperatures and heat concerns. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Isolated thunderstorms may be possible in northern Nebraska overnight, including KVTN, KANW, and KONL. Some storms may be severe and lead to gusty erratic winds. Outside of storms, winds should remain under 10 knots out of the east tonight, shifting to the southeast tomorrow morning. Another round of thunderstorms will begin to move into the forecast area late tomorrow afternoon. The ceilometer at KVTN is inoperative and parts are on order. Will use AMD NOT SKED until repairs are complete. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Location Monday forecast Daily record (year) North Platte 104 103 (1952) Valentine 99 103 (1956) Broken Bow 102 101 (1952,68) Imperial 106 100 (1953) Monthly record for June North Platte 107 (6/15/1952, 6/21/2017, 6/26/2012) Valentine 110 (6/24/1988) Broken Bow 107 (6/23/1937) Imperial 110 (6/26/2012) && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMJ LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...Meltzer CLIMATE...Snively
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
830 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 302 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2022 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level troffing extending from Quebec to the Great Lakes region. In the wnw flow into the Upper Great Lakes, a shortwave has supported sct/nmrs -shra across the fcst area today. Early day sunshine allowed for some modest instability to develop over the eastern fcst area. SW winds ahead of sfc trof advected this instability out over the marine layer where the additional lift allowed a few tsra to develop over se Lake Superior earlier today. More recently, some lightning has occurred from around Seney eastward. That`s been it for thunder today. Back edge of -shra is currently progressing quickly across western Lake Superior with -shra now scattering out over western Upper MI. Sfc trof associated with shortwave currently runs from eastern Lake Superior to near Gwinn to near Iron Mtn. Clouds and -shra have resulted in cool conditions this aftn across the w and n central fcst area. Temps in that area are currently in the 50s F. ALong Lake Superior, temps are in the mid/upper 40s F. Temps range up into the lower 60s F over portions of the s central and eastern fcst area. Ongoing -shra will end from wnw to ese during the rest of aftn into the evening. Clearing skies/drying column with precipitable water falling to 40-50pct of normal will support a good radiational cooling night. However, decent wind just off the sfc per 950mb winds will prevent ideal radiational cooling over a good portion of the area. Winds will be lightest over the interior w, and will lean toward the low end of avbl guidance in that area. The 12z MET has a low of 32F at KLNL which seems too low, but it does provide an indication of where temps could bottom out at a few of the traditional cold spots across the interior western U.P. So, some patchy frost is possible in the interior w overnight. Otherwise, 40s F will be the rule for min temps. With rain that has fallen over portions of southern Lake Superior, there could be some fog/stratus for a time this evening where flow is onshore, but it should be short-lived with drier air advecting into the area. Some patchy ground fog could also develop overnight in areas that completely decouple over the interior w. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 335 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2022 Surface high pressure under a 700-500 mb ridge sets up over Upper Michigan Sunday morning. Northerly flow behind the departed low quickly backs northwesterly by mid-day Sunday and then more westerly into the early evening. The result will be cooler onshore flow for communities along and immediately inland from Lake Superior. The warmest temperatures are expected to peak in the interior west. A weak lake breezy is possible for Menominee and western Delta Counties under a weak gradient and maximized heating west of these locations. As the surface to 850 mb flow shifts southeasterly across the entire U.P. Monday morning, expect an uptick in daytime temperatures by Monday afternoon. Continued with the previous forecast of lowering NBM guidance near Lake Michigan, while keeping near 80 F by the late afternoon in the far west. A warm front passing over Upper Michigan late Monday night into Tuesday helps to increase precip chances again, along with thunderstorm potential. Temperatures really begin to warm for Tuesday afternoon as the warm front lifts northeast of the region. The maximized mid-level ridge and southerly flow could create temperatures 10-20 F above normal, especially in the interior west. Downsloping locations could also see a few additional degrees of warming. Another very warm day is in store for Wednesday as a deep closed low in the southern Canadian Prairies shifts the cold front eastward. This could be a period for severe weather for Wed afternoon and into Wed night. Keep an eye out for further updates over the next few days on this severe potential. A much cooler air mass moves into the region behind the cold front for Thursday (850 mb temps progged to drop from 21 to 10 C). The most likely impact to the forecast at this point will be daytime temperatures on Thursday becoming only slightly above normal, decreased surface dewpoints and breezy westerly winds. Deterministic guidance does point towards a solution of a reinforcing shortwave breaking off from the deep low near ND/MN/Manitoba Thursday morning to create another potential for thunderstorms and showers that afternoon and evening. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty in this secondary storm potential for Thursday PM so left NBM guidance for the ensemble solutions in place. Ensemble-based solutions in the WPC Cluster Tool highlight the increasing likelihood of a central CONUS high amplitude ridge building back into the area by next weekend. What is still widely varying in those solutions though is where the ridge axis will be located so many details have to be worked out before talking specifics for next weekend. For those that have been looking forward to more prolonged near to above normal temperatures though, this pattern next weekend would at least be favorable. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 824 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2022 Surface high pressure and associated drier air building in from Ontario will result in clearing skies across Upper Michigan tonight which will continue into Sunday. After LIFR cigs clear out of SAW in the next hour, expect VFR conditions at all terminals through the fcst period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 332 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2022 High pressure building over Lake Superior tonight will keep winds under 20kt through Sunday. A low pressure trough deepens across the Plains Monday and Tuesday, creating a tightened gradient over the Upper Great Lakes. Expect E to NE winds across western Lake Superior and E to SE winds across eastern Lake Superior in this time gusting to 25kt. Some gusts up to 30kt are likely at high obs platforms on Tuesday. The first trough passes over Lake Superior on Wednesday so southwest winds briefly fall below 20kt before a second trough on Thursday again increases west gusts to 30kt. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...NLy AVIATION...Voss MARINE...NLy
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
304 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Key Messages: 1) Hot the rest of the day and Hot again tomorrow. 2) Isolated thunder in the high terrain, especially in Pikes Peak region later this afternoon, Isolated thunder again tomorrow afternoon. Currently... It is hot! Temps were in the 100s at KPUB, KLHX, KLAA and KSPD, with KSPD at 104 F. Over the remainder of the plains and valleys, 90s prevailed. A cumulus field was noted in sat pix data over the higher terrain, with the best cu fields over the La Garitas and the higher elevations of the PPR. Rest of Today into Tonight... Main concern will be the hot temperatures over the region the remainder of the afternoon, as temps may go up another degree or two over the region. The 2nd concern today will be virga/-tsra showers developing, especially in and around the greater PPR this afternoon and lasting into this evening over the eastern plains mainly north of US50, as D-CAPE values of 1000-1500 are noted and some mid lvl moisture will be moving over this region. This scenario is shown by the latest HRRR runs. Given this, it is not out of the question we could see some locally strong gusty winds with these virga showers. Additionally, later this evening it cant be ruled out that we may see a heat burst or two as isolated virga showers linger after nightfall Warm temps are expected through the night. Actual mins will be somewhat dependent on how much outflow we can get from the virga showers, which will tend to cool things a bit given the outflow occurs. Overall anticipate lows mainly in the 60s tonight plains and 40s to L50s over the larger valleys. Tomorrow... The heat continues all area. In addition, fire weather concerns ramp up in advance of a mid level trough moving towards the region from the west. With the gradient intensifying a bit, a lee trough developing over the plains and the very warm temps aloft, surface winds will be increasing over the higher terrain. For this reason a RED FLAG warning has been issued for the SW mtns, the Southern Mtns and the SLV. In these areas meteorological conditions will be meant, and fuels are conducive per fuels page. Overall expect it to be a lower end event as wind gusts will not be all that strong (G25-30 MPH). Over the plains, there is a chance for a strong storm or two along the sfc trough/dryline axis which will located near the border. Primary concern would be strong sfc winds, but some larger hail could occur if the storms linger long enough on our side of the border. Temps tomorrow will be similar to todays highs, with L100s over the Lower Ark Rvr Valley from KPUB eastward, with 90s on the divides. L90s will occur in the valleys. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 ...Key Messages 1. The heat continues the upcoming week, even with mid-week cold front passage 2. Fire weather concerns remain into early next week in the SW/SE Mountains and San Luis Valley... Monday - Tuesday...Besides the heat continuing into the new work week, stronger west-southwest winds are expected across the region with sustained winds 20-25 MPH and gusts upwards of 35-45 MPH each day. Across the Southeast and Southwest Mountains, including the San Luis Valley Red Flag conditions will be present as fuels are still deemed cured allowing for rapid fire growth. East across the Front Range and the plains fuels are currently green enough to preclude the need for Red Flag Warnings. Really need to stress this point though, even with the lack of Red Flag Warnings there are still pockets of dried and dormant fuels that will carry a fire from the I- 25 corridor eastward. The stronger winds each day, very warm temperatures, and humidity levels in the low-teens/single digits, are more than an enough to remain extra vigilant with your sparks. A few days ago Tuesday looked marginal for fire weather concerns given the quicker progression of a stronger mid-level trough sending a cold front through the region. The troughing trends in the ensembles have been slowly and farther north with any moisture and frontal passage. This trend delays sending the cold front through the area keeping us warmer, drier, and windier longer. A wind shift to the north is not expected until later Tuesday evening at this point. Wednesday - Thursday...Brief cooldown on Wednesday. When we say brief, we really mean a days worth, though the cooldown is relative to the preceding days since we`ll still be above seasonal averages. Temperatures climb fairly easily back to well above average on Thursday owing to the dry airmass still in place. Good news, stronger winds will decrease on Wednesday and Thursday with only spotty elevated to near critical fire danger conditions. Friday - Saturday...Watching this period for an influx in some upper- level moisture back into the region, mostly the western part of the region. Not quite monsoon but getting closer as mid-level ridging slowly retrogrades towards the west with deeper, anomalous, West Coast troughing expected. Need to watch the trends in this West Coast troughing as it will be a big player in our moisture production or lack of, early next week. Much of the activity will be confined to the higher terrain, favorable upslope/windward sides in the Southwest Mountains and along the Continental Divide, though the flow orientation is not quite perpendicular to the ridges, so spotty showers, 30-40% chances, are currently forecasted. The heat continues as well across much of the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 11 2022 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KCOS and KALS. Winds will be light and diurnally driven. There is a slight chance of some convective activity in the KCOS area this afternoon, with very localized strong winds possible associated with evaporating virga associated with high based convective activity. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ223>225. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ223>225. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...HEAVENER AVIATION...HODANISH