Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/11/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
929 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Storms did end up firing across portions of the west and continue to move into the central. Expanded the isolated shower/thunder PoPs further west to better reflect observations and trends. Will stick with scattered wording further east where there is higher density of showers and storms. Thus far, storms have remained fairly tame and are now starting to move out of the better instability. Still shear is strong and there are some pockets 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE floating around. A few of these storms are likely at least producing small hail and brief gusty winds but are well short of being severe. Storms should start to weaken markedly over the next hour or two as we approach and surpass sunset. UPDATE Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Overall, the forecast looks to be in good shape. For this update, just tweaked the sky cover over the next few hours to better account for some of the clearing that has taken place across the southwest. The HRRR remains aggressive in developing a few stronger storms, mainly in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains, Devil`s Lake Basin, and into the James River Valley. Shear should be plentiful but the best chances for storms will be on the cool side of the boundary draped from the northwest corner of the state and southeast into the James River Valley. Thus, instability may remain limited. The 22z HRRR has now started sparking more showers and storms across portions of the west and central, where instability may be a bit more substantial so this could be an area to watch for a stronger storm should they form but mid level lapse rates will still be unimpressive. This remains a lower probability scenario. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 For the short term period, occasional showers and thunderstorms are possible. Presently, a narrow line of showers is moving west to east across the center of the forecast area. In addition, a few thunderstorms have developed over the southern James River Valley of North Dakota. Additional thunderstorms may develop this evening in western parts of the state. With strong shear and potential pockets of instability in excess of 1000 J/kg, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and into the evening hours as a cold frontal boundary passes through the region. There does appear to be decent shear in the area Saturday, however, the best instability looks to remain south and thus limited in the forecast area. Still, a strong storm or two in the southwest of the state is not out of the question again. Additional thunderstorms are possible during Sunday afternoon, but the best instability once again remains further south. Highs this afternoon will top out in the mid 70s to low 80s, while highs Saturday are expected to be a bit warmer as they top out mostly in the low to mid 80s. Lows tonight will remain in the 50s to even low 60s near the ND/SD border. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 The main forecast challenge through the extended period is an active pattern with the potential for severe weather Sunday night through Monday night. To begin the extended period, a west CONUS trough will be in the process of lifting to the northeast. With southerly flow at the surface, very moist Gulf air will stream into the forecast area with boundary layer dew points topping out in the low 70s by Monday evening in south central portions of the state. The first severe threat will be Sunday evening as convection develops Sunday afternoon off to the southwest. By evening, storms may begin to approach southwestern North Dakota. Presently, as has been the theme up to this point, strong shear will be present, but the best instability remains south. Nevertheless, with a very moist atmosphere and a strengthening low level jet, the potential for severe weather is possible through the night. The biggest threat looks to be Monday afternoon through Monday evening. A very moist and buoyant atmosphere will be in place, especially in south central parts of the state. That coupled with strong deep layer shear could lead to the potential for all threats being on the table. That said, there remains a lot of uncertainty. For one, most model soundings suggest a fairly stout cap that may persist through the afternoon. Another question is exactly where the best forcing will be. Beyond Monday night, showers and a few thunderstorms may linger through the day Tuesday with additional chances of showers Wednesday. Models are then fairly consistent with a ridge building into the area for the tail end of the week leading to dry and hotter conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Showers and storms will develop across eastern portions of the area tonight, potentially impacting KJMS. Otherwise, there is a lower chance for a shower or storm across the south, potentially impacting KDIK or KBIS. Given the low probability and uncertainty regarding potential location/timing, will keep any mention of precipitation out of the forecast now for these two location. Any stronger storm cores that do form overhead could produce brief heavy rain, small hail, and erratic gusty winds. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZH SHORT TERM...Telken LONG TERM...Telken AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
528 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 333 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 A hot & dry day across southeast Wyo and the western Neb Panhandle as upper-level ridging continues to build over the southwestern US this afternoon. Daytime high temperatures have climbed into the 85 to 95 degree range for most areas along/east of the Laramie Range, despite substantial coverage of mid & high level clouds. Highs are expected to trend even warmer for Saturday as 700 hpa temperatures climb to near +18 C, in the upper 99th percentile compared to area climatology. No question it will be very hot with widespread highs in the 90s to near 100 F per the NBM 50th percentile. However, may have some difficulty achieving records with forecast soundings now suggesting the convective temperature could be reached by early in the afternoon w/ clouds rapidly increasing in coverage after about 18-20z. A few ripples in the H5 flow pattern further supports this possibility, and enough moisture could exist for some higher based showers or thunderstorms as well with the GFS showing around 500 - 1000 J/kg MLCAPEs. Have decided to include Slight Chance PoPs over the southern half of the CWA as the 48 hour HRRR has suggested the potential for at least isolated afternoon convection. Storms could contain gusty and erratic wind gusts to 45-55 MPH given the rather dry sub-cloud layer and resultant inverted-v profiles. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 333 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon along and east of the Laramie Range. Lightning, large hail, and damaging winds are the primary threats. 2) Near record breaking high temperatures both Sunday and Monday ahead of a cold front moving through Tuesday bringing temperatures back to normal. 3) By Thursday, hot and dry conditions return with temperatures back to well above-normal. DISCUSSION: Very few changes made to the long term forecast as a ridge is expected to keep temperatures well above-normal, near record to record highs Sunday and Monday. The main limiting factor for the temperatures, especially Sunday, will be the potential cloud cover. If the clouds move in early in the afternoon with the thunderstorms, that will moderate temperatures a bit more, but if the skies stay clear, the temperatures will continue to climb through the afternoon. Sunday`s thunderstorm chances will be aided by hot temperatures, dewpoints in the 50s to 60s in central Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle, making it a very hot, moist airmass. Instability due to a fast moving shortwave ahead of the main trough axis, contributes near 500 J/kg of MUCAPE in southeast Wyoming and near 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE in the northern Nebraska panhandle and portions of Central Wyoming where SPC has a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. A cold front will begin to push through southeast Wyoming Tuesday morning and continue to push eastward throughout the day, moderating temperatures down to near-normal (70-80 degrees). Wednesday will bring near-normal temperatures again with dry conditions as the ridge sits over the region. Thursday and Friday will bring dry conditions with warming, above-normal temperatures again! It`s really feeling like summer around here! && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 526 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Some mid-level clouds expected across the area this evening, however conditions should remain VFR. Southeast WY terminals will experience gusty winds between 25 and 35 kts through this evening. Winds will ease around sunset and likely remain calm through the morning hours. Some afternoon gusty winds are likely again for southeast WY terminals tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 321 AM MDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Much above average temperatures will cause fire weather concerns to range between low to elevated today. Breezy wind gusts of 15- 25mph by this afternoon are likely across SE WY where Min RH values will range from 15-25%. Gusty and erratic gusts up to 35mph are possible across SE WY during the afternoon. Min RH of 20-30% are forecast across the NE Panhandle, with wind gusts of 10-20mph. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...LK AVIATION...SF FIRE WEATHER...BW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
727 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Friday/ Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Key Messages: - A few strong storms possible Saturday Afternoon - Additional storms Sunday into early Monday - Hot early next week. Weak ridge of high pressure is in place across Iowa this afternoon. Despite this, showers continue fester over northeast Iowa. Some weak convection has begun to develop over west central and central Iowa along the surface instability axis with around 500 J/kg CAPE in the area. This activity will continue to shift southeast this afternoon and be mostly out of southern Iowa by 7 pm. Some strengthening may occur but the main result maybe some very small hail and lightning. Scattered showers and storms are possible on Saturday as a short wave arrives and will drag a boundary into the state. Higher dew points arrive over southern Iowa on Saturday as well the potential for 70 dew points reaching that portion of the state. A few surface based storms may occur over central and southwest Iowa during the afternoon and evening. Soundings profiles do show a cap to overcome which the mid range and global models are holding though some CAMs including the HRRR are quite robust developing storms with surface based heating. This will really depend on remnant debris from the morning activity and the amount of surface heating into the afternoon and even with that, the cap could hold. Should storms develop, the near storm environment is favorable for rotating updrafts though much of the shear is between 800-300 mb. In addition to weaker flow below 800 mb, the LCL heights will not be optimal for tornadic activity thus the primary threats with any of these storms looks to be large hail and damaging winds. It is a dynamic situation though with everything mentioned above and will need to monitor the next 24 hrs. An MCS is expected to develop over South Dakota and possibly into Nebraska Saturday night and move east/southeast towards the area into early Sunday morning. An instability axis will have developed over the state by this period and if the MCS survives into the state, it is possible it locks into the instability axis and further intensifies again through Sunday morning. Continued waves of theta-e advection will lift across the state into Sunday night and likely into Monday morning which will keep convection bubbling over central Iowa before a stronger push of warmer air and an increasingly stout elevated mixed layer arrives into southwest and central Iowa by Monday afternoon. Convective chances Sunday night will be further enhanced by a stronger short wave also lifting through the state. Continue to advertise high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s on Monday along with dew points well into the 60s to low 70s, producing heat index values in excess of 100 degrees in some areas. That said, there continues to be a signal of a vast amount of upper level relative humidity and potential an opaque cirrus shield passing over Iowa that may limit temperatures. This is beginning to show up in the temperature anomalies for Monday with the 850 mb temperature positive anomalies maxed on Monday but surface temperature anomalies lag behind and are more focused into Tuesday. Tuesday likely will be the warmest day as dew points scale back a bit and into the 60s along with deeper mixing and less cloud potential. There continues to be better agreement on the evolution of the closed upper low lifting into Saskatchewan by mid-week which will eventually lift far enough east to push the upper ridge eastward as well and allow a cold front to enter Iowa. The most likely timeframe for this is Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Should this occur Wednesday afternoon, strong storms and severe weather potential would be increased due to building instability into the afternoon. Thursday will be a touch cooler but the upper ridge will quickly become re-established toward the end of next week and into next weekend which will bring more heat into the forecast. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening/ Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 A few pop up showers and storms still exist in far southern Iowa but are not expected to impact any terminal sites as they exit to the south. However, will continue to monitor in the event of any development further east towards KOTM. Cigs should remain VFR through the evening. Guidance has indicated some patchy lower cigs around 10 to 12z in south central Iowa, but the current signal doesn`t seem to match up with any other meteorological indicators, so have decided to keep it VFR for now. More showers will move in from the north around 12z tomorrow and slowly make their way south into the state. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Donavon AVIATION...Hagenhoff/Dodson
National Weather Service Hastings NE
634 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Main weather story is the increasing heat, yet still sporadic precipitation chances through the forecast period. Weak surface trough is almost through the forecast area, and just hanging on from York to Beloit where winds are calm. Light northerly winds have spread across the rest of the area as of early afternoon. Skies are mostly to partly sunny with a mix of cumulus and high clouds depending upon location. Overall, its a pretty nice day for the 10th of June. The trough will be essentially wash out as southeast/south winds overtake the area overnight and start to bring more low level moisture by Saturday.In fact, most folks will notice a distinct increase in the "muggy feel" of the day by midday as surface dewpoints climb to the upper 60s. Prior to that, weak mid-level warm advection team with a weak shortwave diving southeast from the Dakotas may trigger a few mid-level type showers or isolated thunderstorms toward dawn Saturday, mostly east of U.S. Highway 281 in south central Nebraska. HRRR model has begun to waver a bit on this idea, but most other models hint that at least a low precipitation chance is worthy late tonight and tomorrow morning. That could keep temperatures down a touch due to clouds in eastern sections of the forecast area for a time, but most recent trends suggest Saturday afternoon will end up warmer than previously forecast. Have increased temperatures to near 100 degrees in the southwest forecast area. Saturday brings another small risk for isolated thunderstorms, this time across the northern areas, again as a weak wave cuts through the developing ridge. However, the vast majority of the forecast area will be dry. Very warm and humid conditions will prevail Sunday again. Sunday night seems to bring a better shot at some thunderstorms, again mostly overnight. A stronger wave will cut through the ridge with more expansive late day development to the west possibly moving the western areas with a bit of punch (thus the slight risk of severe weather into Dawson county). However, the coverage doesn`t look widespread but with high instability and stronger wave, this looks to be a better chance than both tonight and tomorrow night. After that wave passes, Monday brings the hottest day of the year so far. Good mixing will result a drying low level...nice for less humidity...but also helpful to get temperatures into the triple digits. Both Hastings and Grand Island will be in the vicinity of record high temperatures (currently 104 for GRI and 100 for HSI). Monday will be the hottest day of the year so far, but may feel a touch better due to lower humidity and a solid south wind gusting over 25 mph. Monday night will very warm as well as overnight lows range from 68 to 80 degrees (from west-to- east). Tuesday is likely to be another hot day ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Tuesday night will bring a fairly organized chance of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front drapes across the area with a strong upper level wave moving through Montana. Rain chances in the forecast remain fairly high, though to be honest, there is uncertainty about how far the front moves into the area, just how expansive any precipitation will be and where it may be. At least there may be a 1 to 2 day respite from the heat behind the front, but upper ridging late next week is probably going to bring it right back. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday) Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. The wind direction will seemingly be constantly moving as a weak trough departs/washes out and southerly flow returns overnight before another weak trough moves through Saturday afternoon. Upper clouds will continue to stream across the area decreasing as we moving into tomorrow afternoon. Looking at the ensemble data and the latest versions of the higher res models, have removed the VCTS mention at KGRI early Saturday morning. While it could still occur, the chances look like it will be far enough east to leave KGRI out of it. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz AVIATION...Billings Wright
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
937 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 937 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 It would appear our risk of an isolated shower or tstm has ended now that the diurnal boost is fading. Radar confirms this trend and the remaining showers over Lk MI are not having any luck reaching the shoreline. Will carry a dry and ptly cldy fcst the rest of tonight with lows 50-55. Now that the winds are diminishing with clearing skies, there could be some patchy fog developing, especially where any isolated showers/storms wet the ground earlier. Northeast Clare County is a candidate for fogging in since over an inch of rain fell there from a stronger cell around 6 PM. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 -- Showers and a few storms this evening -- Diurnal showers and storms are occurring and should continue into the evening hours. Satellite imagery indicates the strongest activity is occurring over Lower Michigan with far less developed cumulus activity upstream over Wisconsin. That said, there is a cold front pushing south through Wisconsin and towards our area with surface based CAPE values near 1,500 j/kg over Southern Wisconsin. So, its not out of the realm of possibilities to see storms fire to the west and make a run at Western Lower Michigan in a decaying fashion over the lake. The HREF supports this thinking with most activity over by midnight. -- Chance for showers/storms Saturday into Sunday -- Northwest flow is in place Saturday into Sunday with a shortwave trough swinging through in the Saturday night time frame. A cold front will move through around the same time. We have our highest pops Saturday night associated with the cold frontal passage. The front lingers just off to the south of our area on Sunday and chance for precipitation will as well across southern portions of the state. - Warm frontal precipitation on Monday then turning hot -- Models are still showing chances for precipitation with the front coming back north as a warm front in the Monday / Monday night time frame. The ECMWF is more bullish with the precipitation and is centered on the Monday afternoon and evening time frame. This has been fairly consistent and followed for this forecast. It still looks like we turn hot in the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame with southwest flow. The ECMWF still has a +24C 850mb temperature over Grand Rapids Tuesday night. Low 90s certainly look possible and would not be surprised to see mid 90s temperatures in spots on Tuesday and Wednesday. ECMWF MOS temperatures continue to rise. The high on Wednesday is now up to 94 at GRR. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 810 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 VFR prevailing tonight and Saturday although can`t rule out some patchy shallow ground fog again late tonight. Overall the risk looks too low to have in the TAFs, however did put in some MVFR fog at MKG where RAP guidance has RH greater than 95 percent below 1000 ft Saturday morning. Even a slight chance conditions could go IFR/LIFR there for a time, with lower cigs possibly lingering as late as Noon-1 PM. Low probability scenario but nevertheless something to watch. Widely scattered showers (and perhaps an isolated tstm) expected again Saturday afternoon, but with limited coverage and the risk at or near a terminal being very low, did not mention VCSH/VCTS in any of the TAFs at this time. Southwest winds increasing by Saturday afternoon to 10 kts with some local gusts near 20 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Fairly light winds are expected over the course of the next 2 to 3 days, or right through the weekend. The one time frame to watch is tonight as winds kick up into the 20-25 knot range just off the surface around 500 feet. We are not thinking these winds will mix to the lake surface fully and generate a sizable wave field. More likely is the fact that winds will hold up in the 10-20 knot range for a time with waves building to 1 to 3 feet. Otherwise, winds are expected to be less than 15 knots through the weekend. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Meade DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Meade MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1045 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Fair weather will continue across the area heading into Saturday with seasonal temperatures. While an upper level disturbance could touch off a few showers on Saturday, the majority of the day and region will be rain free. Showers will be more likely on Sunday and Sunday night, along with possible thunderstorms, as a low pressure system will approach the region from the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 1025 PM Update... Latest radar imagery continues to show just a few sprinkles across northern portions of the forecast area. This blends in well with the latest HRRR and NamNest solutions. Any light precipitation should be confined to northern areas. Minor adjustment made to clouds, temperatures and dew points for the near term portion of the foreast. Otherwise, the package will remain on track with partly cloudy conditions over portions of the region. Update... Latest updated was mainly to drop SCAs from the marine section below. Have updated the forecast for this evening and the overnight hours. Widely scattered showers continue over the mountains but they are light and brief per latest radar imagery. Have modified the cloud, temperature and dew point forecast for the near term. Otherwise, a relatively dry night expected. Prev Disc... Visible satellite shows mostly cloudy conditions holding across interior locations through the evening, with isol/sct showers. Expect coverage to drop off after dark with loss of daytime heating and loss of instability. Lowered guidance for cloud cover which continues broken ceilings into tomorrow, but looking upstream feel this is overdone. Temperatures will fall into the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure over Ohio will drift east Saturday providing broad cyclonic flow. This will continue the seasonable weather along with low humidity. With H850 temps around 8-10C, Saturday`s highs will climb to between 70 and 75, cooler in the mountains where clouds will be more prevalent. Soundings indicate deep mixing which can help pull some drier air down to the surface, suggesting dewpoints may fall below NBM guidance. Winds aloft will be less notable than today, resulting in only a light breeze. With cool pool aloft expect daytime heating to support some spotty showers, mainly in the interior locations. Cloud coverage diminishes Saturday evening supporting a cool evening. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The trough that will have camped out over eastern NOAM over the last few and next couple days finally starts to break free and allow a pattern change for the northeast next week. While the period starts with showery weather... a ridge pushing in from the east will usher in a warming and drying trend through midweek. Beyond that, downstream blocking flow in the Atlantic coupled with a continued active Pacific wave pattern points to an amplifying CONUS wave pattern... but an uncertain time line of progression for these waves. Generally speaking, the back half of the week has precipitation chances returning as another trough approaches from the west... but will have to monitor its advance in the coming days. Starting Sunday... a ridge of high pressure will be sitting out over the Atlantic with closed upper level low pressure spinning south of James Bay. In between, broad south- southeasterly flow will be present over New England with steady pressure falls through the day... ahead of low pressure advancing out of the Great Lakes region. A warm front associated with this system likely brings scattered showers from the southwest during the afternoon into the evening with a little bit of instability in play that could produce some lightning. Beyond this point forecast details get a bit questionable as low pressure occludes over the Saint Lawrence valley with another potentially forming somewhere along the New England coastline. Overall, around 0.5-1.5" of total rainfall potential exists with this passing frontal system but when and where it amplifies will determine distribution, with some locations potentially not even getting 0.5" of rain. This system departs to the east through the day Monday with mountain/foothills showers likely lasting into Tuesday... depending on quickly cyclonic flow overhead can exit as well. Therein lies the next forecast conundrum, having to do with just how progressive our wave pattern will be through next week. As long as upper level low pressure remains nearby, the threat of showers mostly toward the north and east. Best guess with the current model suite has showers exiting after Tuesday. High pressure builds down from the Northwest after this happens, around Wednesday into Thursday before settling offshore. Thus dry conditions are expected with warm southerly flow heading into the end of the week. Eventually the wave pattern brings another trough with shower chances increasing Thursday into the weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...Some areas of clouds between 5000-6500 feet mainly over the higher terrain including KHIE. Scattered showers likewise occuring in the mountains, which could briefly impact KHIE with reduced visibilities. Clouds should slowly decrease in coverage and all TAF sites should have scattered clouds above 3000 feet after 00Z and continuing through the night. Fog is not expected through the period. Winds diminish to less than 6 Kt this evening and continue overnight. Long Term...Flight conditions start off VFR on Sunday, except for perhaps some valley fog in the morning, with light southerly to southeasterly flow over the region. SHRA and associated restrictions increase from the west beginning in the afternoon and evening, with widespread IFR or LIFR expected Sunday night in RA. Restrictions are expected to be the most severe and prolonged along the coast. Steady west-to-east improvement to VFR is expected as the system exits to the east on Monday... with lingering MVFR ceilings for KHIE... and winds backing to the northwest. VFR prevails through the middle of the weak thereafter. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas will continue to gradually diminish and subside tonight. Have therefore allowed the SCAs to expire. Long Term...Weak high pressure holds over the waters with increasing southerly flow Sunday which may produce patchy fog. Showers break out as a frontal system crosses the waters Sunday night and Monday. Winds and seas may briefly approach SCA thresholds during that time. With low pressure departing to the northeast by Midweek, flow turns more northerly or northwesterly with clearing conditions. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for MEZ024>028. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Casey
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
757 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 A warming trend is expected through early next week, with shower and thunderstorm chances continuing for Saturday night into Sunday before the heat arrives. Highs in the 90s are expected for Monday through Wednesday, with some sites reaching 100 degrees not out of the question. Heat related impacts will exist during this period. The chance for precipitation returns for Wednesday through Friday, with cooler temperatures expected for the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 757 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Light showers linger over east central Illinois this evening, though skies have become partly cloudy further west. Scattered thunderstorms have been tracking southeast closer to the stationary front, and have shown a bit of an uptick as they move through south central Illinois. This should be out of the area over the next hour or two. However, latest HRRR continues to linger a few showers over east central Illinois overnight as shown by earlier CAM`s, and have kept a mention of isolated showers overnight in that area. Northern portions of the CWA have received a quarter to half inch of rain today, and the clearing line is around Peoria and Springfield this hour. Some of the more recent high-res guidance has been showing an increasing potential for fog overnight, largely north of our forecast area, but close enough to be of concern here. Some of this will depend on how much cirrus streams southeast from Iowa/Minnesota overnight. Will keep an eye on this closely over the next few hours. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 An upper level shortwave is diving SE across MN/WI/IA today. Ahead of that, warm air advection has resulted in an area of rain/rain showers across IL. Individual cells will generally drift easterly...while the area of forcing lifts northeast today. Expect this activity to mostly taper off by late afternoon/early evening. However, the latest ensemble of hi-res models hints at a few isolated showers/thunderstorms in a line late tonight from east to west across central IL...where MUCAPES are 100-200 J/kg and some strong isentropic lift will exist around 850 mb. Although the likelihood is low, added this slight chance into the forecast grids for tonight. Tomorrow, skies stay on the partly sunny side, but dry weather is expected during the daytime hours. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Saturday night, a fetch of high theta-e air will push into western IL ahead of the next upper wave in the NW flow aloft. MUCAPES increase to 1000-1500 J/kg most likely, but the upper end is 3000 J/kg in NW IL. Have included a 30% chance in the vicinity of the IL River and west late Saturday night. The potential for storms will exist in to Sunday with a warm frontal boundary in the area. CAPE and deep shear support severe storms for Sunday...and central IL is in a Marginal Risk for severe storms on Sunday. Morning convection will play a pivotal role in how the environment sets up for the afternoon/evening. Beyond Sunday, the upper ridge over the central U.S. will slowly shift eastward through the eastern U.S. and bring near record heat to the region. Heat products will likely be needed Mon-Wed of next week with max heat indices expected to range from 100-110 degrees. Despite the heat, chances for rain do exist towards midweek. An upper wave in SW flow aloft will move NE towards MN/WI on Wed, and could bring some thunderstorm activity to IL. The chance of storms will linger into Thursday with a frontal boundary in the area. For Friday, a lot of uncertainty exists regarding the timing of the front will be and how quickly the upper trough moves east and through the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Lingering clouds from KPIA-KCMI are expected to move out over the next few hours. Lowest ceilings will be in this area, though still around 5000 feet. Winds expected to gradually trend toward the southwest on Saturday, but remaining below 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 744 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Record High Temperatures June 13-15th... City Mon/Jun 13 Tue/Jun 14 Wed/Jun 15 Peoria...... 98 in 1894 99 in 1987 98 in 1894 Springfield. 95 in 2017 100 in 1987 100 in 1987 Lincoln..... 96 in 1952 97 in 1954 102 in 1987 Urbana...... 96 in 1894 100 in 1987 97 in 1987 Normal...... 99 in 1894 103 in 1894 99 in 1894 Decatur..... 99 in 1894 102 in 1987 100 in 1987 Galesburg... 95 in 1987 99 in 1987 93 in 1994 Danville.... 99 in 1894 97 in 1920 98 in 1913 Effingham... 97 in 1902 100 in 1902 101 in 1902 Paris....... 97 in 1984 98 in 1894 97 in 1925 Olney....... 99 in 1954 99 in 1897 101 in 1952 Jacksonville 98 in 1954 98 in 1954 99 in 1987 Tuscola..... 96 in 1894 98 in 1987 98 in 1987 Charleston.. 96 in 1954 96 in 2017 97 in 1913 Mattoon..... 99 in 1987 100 in 1987 100 in 1987 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SYNOPSIS...Knutsvig SHORT TERM...Knutsvig LONG TERM...Knutsvig AVIATION...Geelhart CLIMATE...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
629 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 410 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 H5 analysis this morning had a broad area of high pressure, which extended from So Cal, east southeast into the Gulf of Mexico. North of this feature, low amplitude ridging extended from northern Utah into the prairie provinces of Canada. East of this feature, low pressure was located over southern portions of Hudson Bay. A trough extended south of this feature into the Mid Atlantic states. West of the ridge, closed low pressure persisted over the Gulf of Alaska with a trough approaching the Pacific NW coast of the CONUS. Across the central and northern plains, west northwesterly flow was present. There was a shortwave noted in this flow over eastern Kansas. Another shortwave was noted over northern California this morning. At the surface, High pressure was the dominant feature across western and north central Nebraska this afternoon. Winds were generally light across the area and skies were partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 70 at O`Neill to 84 degrees at Imperial and Broken Bow. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 410 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 In the near term, the main forecast challenges are temperatures Saturday, followed by precipitation chances and severe potential late Saturday night. Tonight will be generally quiet across the area. There will be small threat for light showers and storms across the far northeastern forecast area late tonight. The latest NAMnest and HRRR solns transition convection from North Dakota and eastern South Dakota into Minnesota, northern Iowa and northeastern Nebraska late tonight. Some of these showers, may impact far northeastern portions of the forecast area overnight. On Saturday, the ridge off to the west will build east onto the high plains of western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. H85 temps will reach the upper 20s to lower 30s C in far SW Nebraska Saturday afternoon. This will equate to high temps in middle to upper 90s in SW Nebraska. Elsewhere, highs will reach the lower 90s. Overnight Saturday night there will be a threat for thunderstorms in northern and northeastern Nebraska. Convection will develop over eastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming Saturday evening as a shortwave over tops the ridge. This activity will gradually over top the ridge, traveling southeast toward northern and northeastern Nebraska overnight. Deep layer shear will be sufficient for supercell thunderstorms and there is plenty of elevated CAPE across northern Nebraska overnight. Large hail will be the main threat overnight as Bufkit soundings show a strong inversion at ONL and ANW overnight. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 410 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 The ridge will transition east into central Nebraska Sunday with hot temperatures expected once again in SW Nebraska. Late Sunday, thunderstorms will develop off to the southwest of the forecast area over eastern Colorado. As this activity lifts northeast into southwestern Nebraska, it will encounter very favorable moisture and plenty of elevated CAPE over southwestern into western Nebraska. Ample shear exists to support super cell thunderstorms. ATTM, it appears the greatest severe threat Sunday will be large hail. On Monday the ridge will begin to break down, allowing a cold front to push into far northwestern Nebraska Monday Afternoon. South of the front, hot temperatures are expected with readings toping the century mark in all locations except the far northwestern forecast area. For locations along and south of Highway 92, readings will reach 102 to 107 degrees. Temperature records will be in jeopardy at Broken Bow, Imperial and North Platte with forecast highs of 102, 102 and 104 respectively. In addition, gusty southerly winds and low relative humidities in far SW Nebraska will facilitate critical to near critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon. ATTM the main concern is zone 210 where fuels are most receptive to rapid fire spread. As the front tracks through the area Monday night, there will be a threat for thunderstorms in the northwestern forecast area. Convection further south is in doubt as mid level temperatures remain very warm. Better chances for precipitation will arrive Tuesday night as a closed low tracks into south central Canada. this will drag a trough of low pressure aloft through the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Both the EC and GFS solns develop post frontal, mid level frontogenesis driven precipitation across the area Tuesday night. This remains consistent with previous model runs and feel confident in continuing pops for these periods from the pvs forecast. After Wednesday, ridging will begin to build into the central CONUS. This will lead to hot temperatures and dry conditions late next week into next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 A surge of dry air through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight will likely produce widespread VFR. This dry air is the result of an approaching cold front, currently moving through MT. The passage of the cold front Saturday morning will produce northwest winds aloft and at the sfc. The risk of MVFR or lower flight conditions with the frontal passage or the north winds behind the front Saturday is very low, near zero. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1103 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 KEY MESSAGES: -Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms likely this afternoon and again early tomorrow. -Heat and humidity is on the way for early next week. This afternoon through Saturday... Scattered showers and storms have developed early this afternoon along a stationary front along the Minnesota River Valley into far southeastern Minnesota. Another area of light showers continues across western Wisconsin. The spotty convection along and south of the front will continue through the afternoon before diminishing towards sunset, with very light rainfall totals expected. Overnight, a mid level trough will lead to another round of showers into Saturday morning. QPF totals with this round are expected to be around a quarter inch with slightly higher amounts possible along and north of the I-94 corridor. Saturday is not expected to be a washout as the system continues off to the east by the afternoon, with a few scattered showers and rumbles of thunder possible by mid afternoon, mainly for eastern and southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. The conditional threat for a few stronger to possibly severe storms late tomorrow for southern Minnesota has diminished, with the biggest limiting factor being lack of strong destabilization in the wake of morning activity. Sunday through Wednesday... Isolated showers are possible again on Sunday, but the focus for the second half of the weekend will turn more towards heat and humidity across the Upper Midwest. An upper level ridge will build across the central CONUS late Saturday into early next week with highs solidly in the 80s to near 90 Sunday and Monday. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day with widespread low to mid 90s coupled with dew points in the mid 60s. PW values look to be running near the climatological max late Monday through Tuesday. While there will be plenty of instability both of these days, warm temperatures aloft will lead to a strong capping inversion, likely preventing much in the way of thunderstorm development. A strong cold front will move through late Tuesday into Wednesday, which may provide enough forcing for showers and storms to develop ahead of the front, but have left slight PoPs in place for now. Highs on Wednesday behind the front will be closer to mid June norms in the low to mid 80s. Thursday and beyond... Dry conditions will prevail from Wednesday evening into the weekend. Temperatures look to build into the upper 80s to low 90s Friday into the weekend as another ridge sets up over the central CONUS. The CPC temperature lookout continues to favor above normal temperatures through the 8-14 day outlook. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 As with previous TAF, held precip mention to the first wave coming in late tonight into Sat morning. Still not expecting enough coverage of TS to include it`s mention in the TAFs. For the afternoon, scattered storms are possible, though models are a bit all over the board with both if and where storms will develop, with some models showing storms favoring western WI and others more southern MN, so with that, continued no mention of precip after the morning round. LAV is starting to back away from MVFR cigs, with RAP soundings showing cigs remaining mostly VFR, so have removed any prevailing MVFR conditions with this TAF set, though RNH/EAU are still the sites that have the best potential at have a few hours of MVFR cigs. KMSP...Still not a certainty that MSP sees rain in the morning, but we`re seeing spread grow with when we`ll see precip, with the HRRR pushing precip back to late morning. Still some potential for scattered storms Saturday afternoon, but confidence in them occurring is not high enough to include in the TAF. Chances for MVFR cigs continue to dwindle for Saturday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts. Mon...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. Tue...VFR. Chc MVFR/SHRA/TSRA late. Wind S/SW 10-15g25kt. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...MPG