Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/10/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
627 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
Isolated to scattered showers continue across the region this
evening. No major changes are planned to the forecast though may
need to tweak hourly pops as the evening progresses.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
Chances for precipitation continue this evening with the possibility
of some fog overnight across parts of our CWA. Dry air moves in
Friday with more chances of precip for the weekend.
Deterministic models at 500mb indicates a troughing pattern to our
east with the low that continues to spin over Ontario. To our west
way out in the Pacific, off the coast of Alaska, is another low that
continues to spin. With this setup, an upper level ridge is
positioned over much of the western half of the country, with most
of the CWA on the top/right side of it, which is bringing us
northwest flow aloft. This pattern continues pretty much through the
short term before the ridge moves east, changing our flow out of the
south/southwest, towards the end of the weekend. This flow will
continue to pump out shortwave activity on the downside of the ridge
that will help aid in chances of precip. At the surface, a low
pressure system will be positioned over CO/NE border around 00Z and
push east through the overnight hours into Friday. A high pressure
system will move in over the area for Friday, keeping most of the
area dry. This high pushes southeast through the day with a surface
low pushing in from the northwest with the warm front to our north
and cold front to our northwest.
With this low to our south, surface trough to the west/southwest,
and shortwave energy there will be continuing chances of spotty
showers/t-storms into this evening. Cams indicates stronger
convection activity will remain to our south where much of the
severe weather will take place. However, there is a marginal risk
for some of those storms to become severe (isolated), mainly from
Sturgis to Faith, southeast through Pierre, and into southern SD. DP
temps in the 50s along with ML/MU CAPE ~1200-1400 J/Kg by 00Z Friday
with bulk shear 40-50 Kts out of the northwest, according to the
HRRR/HREF. Of note, NAM models seems to be the most progressive with
the instability pushing more northward. Otherwise HREF/Rap indicates
just a little bit of CAPE to work with this evening/early overnight
for thunder chances to remain in the forecast. With the high
overhead for Friday, dry weather in store before chances of precip
once again with the approaching warm front late Friday into
Saturday, mainly across our northeastern CWA.
RAP Bufkit soundings indicate moist air at the surface, along with
light winds overnight. This suggests there could be patchy fog
across parts of our CWA, mainly in the early morning hours Friday.
Overnight lows will range in the 50s. Highs for Friday will warm up
as much warmer air moves in from the south/southwest at 925-850mb.
Highs will be in the mid/upper 70s to lower 80s with even warmer
temps this weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
A more seasonal, summer-like pattern will be in place this weekend
into early next week, both in terms of temperature and storm
potential.
This weekend, the CWA will be sandwiched in the upper-levels between
a high centered across New Mexico/Texas and a low near/north of the
Great Lakes. The jet stream will be squarely atop the Northern
Plains, and thus any passing ridge-riding shortwave energy will have
the opportunity to support showers and thunderstorms across the
region, in an increasingly warm and humid environment. Temperatures
aloft will be much warmer than we`ve been accustomed to seeing so far
this season, in the ~20-30C range at 925mb. This will translate into
highs in the low to upper 80s for highs. Meanwhile, dewpoints will
increase to around 60F east of the Missouri River Saturday, and into
the low to mid 60s across the board on Sunday. The best chance for
showers and storms will be Saturday night across central SD (20-
30%) and again Sunday night (30-50%).
The heat and humidity increases further on Monday, as the upper-
levels become more amplified due to an approaching negatively-tilted
trough, which eventually becomes a strong closed low by Tuesday
morning across southern Saskatchewan. With dewpoints in the low 60s
to perhaps low 70s across the CWA, ample instability is forecast
(SBCAPE of 3000+ J/kg). However, thunderstorms may have a difficult
time developing as a strong capping inversion should be in place by
18z with very anomalously warm 13-17C 700mb temperatures, per the
ECMWF and NAEFS means on the ensemble situational awareness table.
This will be something to monitor in the days ahead, as other
ingredients needed for severe weather will be in place, though the
best deep-layer shear may be a bit off-set to the north and west as
well. High temperatures could easily reach the mid 80s to mid 90s
Monday afternoon, and heat index values may approach 100F,
particularly between the Missouri River and the Prairie Coteau.
Once a cold front passes through/to the east of the area by Tuesday
morning, temperatures cool off and any severe weather potential
would most likely shift east as well. Summer-like conditions may
quickly rebound by the end of the week, however.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected through this evening. KATY and KPIR
may see some IFR cigs late tonight and into Friday morning.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
427 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
Ongoing thunderstorms at of 18z continue to develop and move into
central Kansas east of the Larned to Medicine Lodge line. As
these storms move east this Thursday afternoon they will pose
little risk for any type of severe weather in the Stafford, Pratt
and Medicine Lodge areas.
The main area of interest of late day/evening for strong to
severe thunderstorms will be across southeast Colorado near a
surface boundary which based on SPC Meso Analysis and RAP 0-1km
moist Convergence has it located from extreme southeast Colorado
to west central and northwest Kansas. MLCAPE at 18z was 1500 to
2000j/kg with decent CIN in place but given this area has already
broke out into the sun will be monitoring the erosion of this cap
and possible thunderstorm development after 3pm. Any storm that
does develop late today will have a good chance to become strong
or severe given an approaching upper level trough, forecast shear
and mid level instability late day in this area. The strongest
storms being capable of producing hail larger than 2" possible.
Also strong gusty winds will be possible given the high bases and
downdraft capes. These storms will move east southeast late day
and cross southwest Kansas with the best chance for severe being
west of a Garden City to Meade line and between 21z and 03z.
Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible and given the recent
rainfall this may result in some water issues. At this time am
leaning towards holding off with any type of Flood Warning but
this heavy rainfall may result in some localized ponding of water.
After 03z there will be a chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms across north central Kansas as an upper level trough
exits Nebraska and crosses north central/central Kansas between
03z an 09z Friday. This upper wave should move along a mid level
baroclinic zone which based on the 700mb temperature gradient from
the RAP will be located near/north of Wakeeney to near/east of
Pratt. Also overnight the RAP 850mb winds increase to 35 to 40
knots across southwest Kansas as warm air advection, moisture
advection and 0-1km moisture convergence improving near the edge
of the warm mid level temperatures. Given this...what storms that
have developed earlier in the evening ahead of the approaching
upper wave should continue to increase in coverage and strengthen
as they move south southeast. As this cluster of storms develops
the primary hazard will shift from large hail to strong damaging
winds along with periods of heavy rainfall. Given that this area
has had a brief break in the convection over the past few days and
taking into account what little isolated convection that did
occur earlier this morning...will lean towards holding off on
issuing a flood watch at this time for Trego, Ellis or Rush
counties but the expected heavy rain potential may result in minor
water issues, especially in poor drainage areas along with
ponding of water in fields. Wind gusts in excess of 70 mph will
also be possible.
Much like the previous events the overnight thunderstorms will
end by early morning and what cloud cover there will be present
will give way to a mostly sunny afternoon. What cooler air that
did invade southwest Kansas overnight will be slow to erode from
west to east but it does look like a warmer afternoon temperatures
will be possible west of Dodge City. Highs near 90 are not out of
the question in a few locations in extreme southwest Kansas
(Elkhart) while east of Dodge City the highs are expected to be
mainly in the low to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
The latest Models today, ensemble clusters and ECMWF EFI were all
in good agreement with summer heat returning to southwest Kansas
over the weekend and into early next week. See little reason to
disagree with the latest forecast with highs Sunday and Monday
ranging from 100 to near 105. Subtle upper level disturbances are
forecast to rotate out of the Rockies and out into the Western
High Plains late week and early next week as the upper ridge moves
east across the Central and Northern Plains. Any one of these
subtle waves may aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms
over eastern Colorado along a trough of low pressure at the
surface. Any storm that does develop will move east and weaken
during the evening so the probability of thunderstorms across far
southwest Kansas appears small. Precipitation chances may be small
but the strong gusty winds are appearing to be more and more
likely given the trough of low pressure along the lee of the
Rockies in response to an approaching upper level trough and
stronger winds (40-50knot 850mb winds forecast, especially Monday)
mixing down to the surface.
Towards mid week the precipitation chances will be on the
increase as an upper level trough that will be crossing the
Western United States on Monday moves east towards the Rockies on
Tuesday. Cooling in the mid levels are expected as the warm mid
level temperatures shift east as the upper ridge axis enters the
Mississippi Valley. Given the location of the lee surface trough
and approaching cold front from the north along with cooling mid
level temperatures ahead of the approaching upper level trough it
currently appears that thunderstorms chances will be on the
increase late Tuesday through Wednesday, especially north of Dodge
City.
Cold frontal passage mid week will usher in some cooler, or
should we say more seasonal, temperatures back to southwest Kansas
for the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 427 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF cycle. Widespread
stratocumulus, mainly in the VFR to high end MVFR category, has
persisted most of the day, but is expected to slowly dissolve
through this evening. Convective coverage through tonight is
highly uncertain. As such, kept all TAFs dry with no convection
mentioned for now. Will monitor for convective impacts at the
airports through tonight, but confidence is way too low to include
in the 00z TAFs. Sky is expected to clear through 12z Fri as
subsidence arrives behind the departing shortwave. Associated weak
cold front is expected to provide a northerly wind shift
12-15z Fri, with north winds gusting 20-25 kts. VFR/SKC is
expected daylight Friday with a diminishing NE wind.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 88 63 95 / 20 0 0 0
GCK 58 90 63 97 / 30 0 0 0
EHA 60 90 64 99 / 40 0 0 0
LBL 61 90 64 98 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 61 85 61 94 / 50 0 10 10
P28 64 88 64 91 / 60 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1049 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 512 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will end
along the bay and lake breezes in far Northeast Wisconsin by early
evening, with clearing skies overnight. Low temperatures will be
around 5 degrees cooler than usual.
An upper trough moving across southern Wisconsin and a weak surface
boundary across eastern Wisconsin should produce scattered showers
and thunderstorms Friday, mainly south of highway 29. The RAP and
HRRR forecast soundings have CAPEs of over 1000 J/kg at MTW/OSH/GRB
with steep mid level lapse rates and low wet bulb zero heights. Think
there could be a few strong or nearly severe storms providing that
the models are correct. Highs will be close to usual.
.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 512 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
The main highlights from this forecast period revolve around
precipitation trends throughout the period. In addition, near normal
temperatures are expected for the weekend, followed by a pattern
change early next week, bringing above normal temperatures to the
region.
Friday night through Sunday...Lingering showers and thunderstorms
will continue into Friday evening, mainly south of Highway 29, as a
mid-level shortwave exits the region to the southeast. Not following
far behind, a stronger mid-level shortwave will slide southeast
across the Upper Mississippi Valley early Saturday morning. While
this system is expected to bring a decent soaking to the forecast
area Saturday into Saturday night (QPF amounts up to 0.50 to 0.75
inches), uncertainty remains with the location of the axis of
heaviest precipitation due to differences in the surface low track.
The better instability and forcing will remain closer to the
surface low, which appears to remain west of the forecast area for
most of Saturday. By the time the low tracks across the forecast
area sometime Saturday night, diurnal heating and instability will
decrease, leaving the potential for non-severe thunderstorms
Saturday night. Model guidance indicates weak high pressure building
across the region for Sunday, which should keep a dry forecast in
place, however, some guidance indicates lingering low-level moisture
may allow for light showers or sprinkles at times.
Rest of the extended...Into Monday, upper-level ridging will amplify
over the region as WAA and isentropic upglide slowly lifts over the
state. By Monday evening, models show some indication of an embedded
mid-level shortwave riding the ridge, which would provide enough
support for a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast area. However, there are also indications of a cap, which
would hinder the severe potential. The combination of low-level
southwest to west winds transporting much warmer air into the region
Monday night into Tuesday, and the surface warm front lifting
across the region by Tuesday afternoon, will allow afternoon high
temperatures to rise above normal with readings in the 80s away from
the lake, and 70s along the lake. With the surface cold front still
trailing well behind, Tuesday should remain dry, but it will be
humid with afternoon dew points in the middle to upper 60s. The
biggest question remains with the timing of the surface cold front
on Wednesday. Although this is at the end of this forecast period,
which can very easily change over the coming days, models indicate
the cold front moving across the region during peak heating, when
instability, mid-level lapse rates, and shear appear to be at their
greatest, increasing the potential for severe storms over the
forecast area. Will continue to watch how this system evolves over
the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
VFR conditions are expected across the area during the overnight
hours as some high clouds stream in across the region. An upper
level disturbance could produce scattered thunderstorms south of a
AUW to GRB line Friday afternoon. Given the spotty nature of the
convection will not include in this set of TAFs. VFR conditions
are expected outside any convective activity through Friday
evening.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......Hykin
AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
726 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly be in control of our weather tonight and
Friday. A low pressure system is forecast to approach from
the west late Friday into Saturday providing the opportunity for
scattered showers and storms to the area. Quiet weather is expected
from Sunday through much of the upcoming week with a heat wave
into the middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 600 PM: Forecast is generally on track. Only made cosmetic
edits this update cycle. The surface front has shifted east of
the forecast area based on wind field and latest mesoanalysis.
Remaining showers have moved east with the frontal forcing, except
perhaps for a few sprinkles lingering along the far southeastern
tier including Laurens, Union, and Chester Counties, SC. Otherwise,
dry air is settling into the region and will continue to do so
the remainder of the evening. Can`t rule out a couple modest wind
gusts embedded in the NW flow, but RAP profiles depict increasingly
unfavorable profiles for mixing over the next few hours, and CAMs
in general agree that CAA will not be especially impressive to
begin with, so not expected widespread gusting.
Tonight winds will gradually decrease, remaining light and
north-northwesterly. Skies will be clear to mostly clear, allowing
for another round of mountain valley fog overnight into daybreak
Friday. Lows should be a few degrees below climo tonight dropping
into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the mtns and upper 50s to
lower 60s elsewhere.
Friday will be noticeably cooler east of the mtns with highs across
the mtns similar to what we will see today. High temps should range
from the low to mid 80s east of the mtns with low 70s to low 80s
across the mtns. Winds start out NE`ly becoming light and variable
Friday afternoon and evening. Sfc high pressure remains overhead
throughout much of the day leading to dry conditions. At the end of
the fcst period a potent shortwave will track into the western CWA
increasing rain chances across the western NC mtns Friday evening.
However, capped PoPs to slight chance through 23z Friday as the
majority of CAM guidance show precip holding off until Friday night.
Please see the short term discussion below for more details.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 pm EDT Thursday: A period of peak forcing still looks
slated for Friday night, with upper-level jetlet divergence crossing
the region circa 06Z Saturday along with the main DPVA lobe in the
passing upper trough. Only modest instability appears to redevelop
under the passing wave Friday night, but perhaps enough for an
isolated thunder mention to go with solid chance shower PoPs. A
little pocket of 30 kt bulk shear will lift through with the wave,
so any thunderstorms will need to be watched for modest
organization, but the weak instability should win out. PoPs will
steadily ebb from the west with the passing wave through Saturday,
but isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible with
daytime heating.
Deep-layer northwest flow will set up behind the departing wave on
Sunday along with drying profiles. Temperatures will begin the climb
back above climo through the latter half of the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 pm EDT Thursday: Heights will build eastward from the
lower/middle Mississippi River Valley Monday to begin ushering in a
week of oppressive heat. 500 mb 594+ dm heights will be in place
Tuesday and Wednesday across the southern Appalachians. The model
camps are split on any modest ridge breakdown on Thursday, with the
ECMWF allowing shortwave energy to batter down the ridge somewhat,
while the GFS and most ensemble means keep ridging in place. Will
lean toward the warmer envelope of guidance each day under the stout
ridge. Tuesday/Wednesday may be the hottest days, with afternoon
heat index values 100 to 105 in many places east of the mountains.
Any diurnal convection under the ridge each day should be rather
limited early in the week, but expand a bit Wednesday into Thursday.
Will feature isolated high mountain PoPs Monday/Tuesday, with more
solid chances Wednesday/Thursday. 850 to 500 mb lapse rates should
be sufficiently robust to support the diurnal convection despite the
warm ridge in place.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Generally a quiet TAF period is in store
for the western Carolinas. With dry high pressure sprawling
across the region, NWly winds and only FEW/SCT cirrus remain.
Dry conditions should continue through the overnight hours while
winds become increasingly Nly before dawn. May see some mountain
valley fog develop overnight, but a persistent light wind should be
enough to prevent it from becoming very thick; at this point it is
expected to remain confined to the Little Tennessee River Valley,
not affecting any of the TAF sites. Conditions should remain clear
on Friday with prevailing Nly flow. Convection is not expected,
although some FEW/SCT fair-weather cumulus will likely develop
across the Piedmont. Friday evening, general thickening of clouds
is expected as an upper disturbance approaches; at this point
any restrictions associated with this disturbance look to occur
after the end of the TAF period. Have included a VCSH at KAVL,
but even this may need to be bumped back with the next issuance.
Outlook: Rain chances return overnight into Saturday as a weak upper
wave crosses the Carolinas, after which isolated diurnal convection
will be possible on Saturday. Dry weather should persist through
the first part of next week. Mountain valley fog will be possible
each morning, but should be patchy at best.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 92 2016 67 1955 67 2018 41 1903
1933 2004
1907 1958
KCLT 99 1958 66 1906 76 1958 49 2019
1921 1881
KGSP 98 1885 60 1906 74 2010 46 1903
1921
RECORDS FOR 06-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1952 63 1917 68 2004 42 1933
1969
1958
KCLT 99 2015 60 1884 75 1998 51 1933
1981
KGSP 97 1981 69 1965 74 1918 51 1904
1885 1906
RECORDS FOR 06-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 92 1934 62 1961 69 1939 43 1933
KCLT 99 2015 62 1965 75 1998 52 1961
KGSP 98 1981 65 1979 73 1914 50 1917
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AP/MPR
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...MPR
CLIMATE...GSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1020 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure exits northeast this evening with much anticipated
clearing over southern portions of the area. Light showers will
persist toward the north through tonight and tomorrow, but much
more pleasant conditions are expected overall with a warm,
westerly breeze on Friday. Weak high pressure fills in through
the weekend, but unsettled weather returns by around Sunday and
lasts through the start of the next work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Update...
Have updated the near term portion of the forecast for the
overnight period. Most of the precipitation has shifted east of
the region with drier air entering the region. This is in line
with the latest HRRR which keeps most of the scattered, light
showers confined to the mountains at this point. Plenty of low
level moisture remains in place from today`s rains however.
This may allow for some patchy fog during the overnight hours as
the gradient eases for a period.
Have made small edits to the expected overnight cloud cover,
temperatures and dew points as well.
Prev Disc...
The low pressure system currently located overhead will
continue to move northeast overnight, clearing showers out as it
moves offshore. A few storms which developed in southern NH are
currently moving offshore to the coast which will likely end
the thunderstorm potential for the day. Lingering showers will
be possible overnight in the mountains as westerly flow sets in.
Skies start clearing out tonight except for northern and
mountain areas with temperatures dropping into the low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.
Pattern: Longwave trough over eastern North America through the
short term period with one wave departing the region on Friday
only to have another dig into the trough from the west by Friday
night. No significant synoptic systems through the period so
our focus will be more on the mesoscale...where mountain shower
potential is the biggest forecast challenge.
Friday: Weak embedded shortwave will be overhead to start the
day with weak mid level height falls. This will pass east of the
region with heights building by afternoon. Given that height
rises don`t arrive until afternoon...building boundary layer in
stability with residual cyclonic flow will likely allow for some
shower development...particularly in the mountains. Current
model profiles suggest too little instability for thunder...but
can/t completely rule it out in a few of the more robust
showers. Expect this activity to wane with the loss of upper
support by middle to late afternoon. T8s 7-10C suggest mid to
perhaps upper 70s with some downslope assistance.
Friday Night: Weak surface ridging builds overhead as mid level
heights continue to build ahead of upstream troughing both
north of the Great Lakes and also across the Mid Atlantic
region. A few upslope showers remain possible through the
night...but otherwise partly cloudy skies should dominate though
some increase in upper cloudiness ahead of the Mid Atlantic
shortwave may keep it a bit more on the cloudy side. Expect lows
similar to the night previous...generally in the lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A blocky northern hemispheric wave pattern keeps the region
locked in cyclonic flow into the start of next week, but with
recent model trends leaning a bit more toward surface high
pressure over the weekend. Though still a bit nebulous of a
surface reflection at times... confidence is increasing WRT the
low level flow pattern and where weak forcing for light showers
come (or don`t come) together. A more organized area of low
pressure impacts the region early next week, but there`s still
quite a bit of model spread WRT where it tracks and thus extent
of any potential hazards.
Starting on Saturday... today`s low pressure system will have
tracked well north of the area with weak high pressure building
in its place across New England. Favorable mixing and an upper
level trough axis should still lead to some diurnal showers
mostly over the mountains, although I wouldn`t be surprised if a
few stray showers occurred elsewhere. Temperatures will run
similar on Saturday as they should on Friday, a little warmer
toward the north where better mixing can be realized with less
cloud cover. On the flip side diminishing westerly flow doesn`t
downslope as efficiently while also allowing a seabreeze to
develop, so some locations (particularly over the coast/adjacent
interior) may be a touch cooler than Friday.
Sunday looks like a similar set up as Saturday, however this is
about the time that model guidance starts to diverge
significantly WRT the synoptic set up. Looking into the upper
levels, a long wave trough will be amplifying over eastern NOAM,
caught between fast zonal flow upstream and blocking high
pressure down stream. Long range model suites point to two
preferred areas of low pressure development on Sunday... one
off the Mid-Atlantic coast and another over the Great Lakes
region... which should come into phase by around Mon/Tue. These
offer a few scenarios for how the start of next week may pan
out. A stronger coastal low to our south would bring in cool,
onshore flow Sun/Mon, otherwise a warm southerly flow would
develop over the region in the warm sector of the Great Lakes
low. I`m going to trend a bit more toward the onshore flow
component which will bring in cooler conditions along the coast
and at least to the I95 corridor. For chances, the coastal low
continues to trend further out over the waters, so not
expecting rain out of that. However the warm front with the
Great Lakes low will have increasing PoPs from the west starting
around Sunday.
As is the general idea with this entire extended forecast... the
Great Lakes low pressure approaches New England early Friday
according to latest trends in guidance but with continued
uncertainty in its overall progression. Its degree of
organization varies greatly across the statistical suite but
cooler, more showery conditions are expected with this system
for Monday with an exit Monday night into Tuesday nonetheless.
After that, the blocking pattern will determine how quickly we
can get out from under this persistent upper level trough and
transition into more of a warm ridging pattern. Lingering
upslope showers should wane and temperatures should trend
warming through the middle of the week with high pressure moving
in.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Conditions will continue to gradually improve to
VFR as showers clear and ceilings lift this evening. Westerly
flow sets in tomorrow with dry conditions and clear skies until
low pressure starts moving in late Friday night bringing another
round of restrictions.
Long Term...VFR prevails with weak westerly flow turning
onshore for coastal terminals Saturday into early Sunday. For
Sunday, flow turns southerly to southeasterly for all terminals
with increasing chances for restrictions by Sunday night as
SHRA arrive from the west. Widespread restrictions... thinking
likely IFR or worse along the coast and brief IFR during periods
of SHRA elsewhere... are likely on Monday as low pressure
crosses. Improvements to prevailing VFR can be expected heading
into mid-week.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term... The SCA has been extended until Friday evening
with waves staying above 5ft, however winds are expected to calm
down tonight to 10-20 kts as the low continues to move out the
of waters. Winds will stay primarily from the west to
northwest behind the low.
Long Term...Weak high pressure draped over the region keeps
conditions over the waters fairly quiet and below SCA thresholds
through the weekend. Forecast confidence drops significantly
starting around Sunday, with low pressure crossing the waters
around the Monday time frame. While the forecast doesn`t reflect
it right now, there is a chance that SCA conditions develop for
a time as this system passes.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Casey
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
710 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
Key Details:
* A slight risk is in place for the entire CWA with significant wind
possible.
* A flood watch is in effect for portions of south-central and
southeast Kansas.
* Drier and much warmer weather is expected towards the end of the
weekend and into early next week.
This Evening and Tonight:
Not much has changed to increase confidence on the location of
storms. The mesoscale and global models still vary on where the best
moisture transport will occur thus setting up the location where the
MCS will likely track. The RAP, Canadian suite, and the HRW-FV3 are
further west with the moisture transport, with the RAP and Canadian
models favoring south-central and southern Kansas down into
Oklahoma. The HRW-FV3 progresses the MCS further east, but the
moisture transport would probably favor something closer to the I-
135 corridor. The GFS, HRRR, and NAM are all further east with the
moisture transport and progress the MCS more towards far southeast
Kansas and into Missouri. The WRF ARW and NSSL are somewhere in
between.
As of now the RAP seems to have a better evolution of the
current precip trends over central Kansas, but would still like to
see continued consistency from it before leaning towards that
solution. Nonetheless the potential will be there for a significant
wind event. Models are in pretty good agreement for 50 to 70 knots
of deep layer effective shear, greater than 2000 j/kg of most
unstable CAPE, and 700-500mb lapse rates will be greater than 8
degrees C/km. The main hazards will be hail up to ping pong sized,
damaging winds possibly greater than 70 mph, and a couple of brief
tornadoes. Along with the severe threat will be a threat for
flooding. Torrential rain could lead to flash flooding in some areas
that have already received a lot of rain this week. precipitable
Water will be well above the 90s percentile this evening so any
storm will be an efficient rain maker. A flood watch has been issued
for portions of south-central, central, and southeast Kansas where
the highest confidence in storms appears to be.
Friday through Sunday:
The pattern becomes more amplified in the pacific, which will allow
the ridge over the Rockies to amplify and shift eastward. This will
bring hot and dry weather this weekend with highs on Sunday
approaching the upper 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
The pattern continues to amplify in the Pacific as we see highs
approach 100 in our western locations on Monday. A shortwave trough
will begin to eject into the Central Plains on Tuesday and keep
temps in the low to mid 90s. Another chance for storms is expected
Tuesday evening into Wednesday with a cold front behind it that
would cool us back into the mid 80s on Wednesday. Models still
differ on both the timing and depth of this trough so stay tuned as
we refine the forecast in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
A few elevated showers with occasional lightning continue over
portions of south central and southeast KS early this evening..
Toward and after midnight, chances increase area wide for strong
to severe storms. The main threats with tonights activity will be
the potential for damaging wind and hail. Unfortunately there
remains some uncertainty in how the complex of storms evolves in space/time
thus went with just showers with a VCTS mention to minimize
impacts. Expect reductions in flight categories as the storms pass
through.
Otherwise, expect winds to become light and variable this evening
through tomorrow. Winds will be me mostly out of the northeast by
the end of the TAF period. MVFR cigs will be possible during the
morning hours tomorrow across portions of south central and
southeast KS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 64 84 64 88 / 70 10 0 0
Hutchinson 63 83 63 88 / 60 0 0 0
Newton 64 82 63 86 / 70 10 0 0
ElDorado 64 81 63 84 / 70 10 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 65 84 64 86 / 70 10 0 0
Russell 61 83 62 93 / 50 0 10 10
Great Bend 61 83 63 91 / 50 0 10 0
Salina 63 84 63 89 / 60 0 10 10
McPherson 63 82 62 87 / 60 0 10 0
Coffeyville 64 82 64 85 / 80 40 10 0
Chanute 64 81 63 84 / 80 50 0 0
Iola 64 80 63 84 / 80 50 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 64 82 64 85 / 80 50 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Friday morning
for KSZ052-053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CRW
LONG TERM...CRW
AVIATION...KMB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
326 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
.SHORT TERM...
Several areas of focus in the short-term, beginning with what`s
ongoing right outside our window this afternoon. Recent KLIX radar
trends illustrate developing cellular convection draped across the
northern half of the CWA. This convection resides along a subtle
convergent axis which, combined with building MLCAPE and sfc
temperatures surpassing convective T has led to this development.
Going through the rest of the late afternoon and evening, pre-storm
environmental conditions remain supportive for a few locally strong
thunderstorms, especially given ~3500J/kg MLCAPE and the subtle
dynamic forcing available. However, widespread severe weather
remains low as mid-level temperatures remain unchanged within the -
7C range, reducing hail growth CAPE. Additionally, recent ACARS
soundings from MSY illustrate why DCAPE remains relatively low (in
the 900J/kg range) with a rather moist low-level thermal profile
even following PBL mixing. Still, can`t rule out a few stronger sub-
severe wind gusts to around 40mph which will be the main concern
today, as well as dangerous lightning.
Recent 18Z HRRR guidance does try to keep convection ongoing this
evening given an abundant unstable environment coinciding with the
southward sagging convergence axis. Very possible it could drape
south of the I-10/12 corridor to around sunset or after, especially
given these storms currently becoming cold pool dominant, now
causing a southward moving outflow boundary to press out.
Thereafter, activity should transition into mainly marine or
nearshore areas later tonightgiven the residual convergence axis
tapping into the marine nocturnal environment. Focus here going into
tonight and daybreak if convection can hang around will be weak
waterspouts.
Going into tomorrow, confidence and focus for severe weather does
increase but first, will take a step back and talk about the overall
synoptic environment and its relation to recent CAM trends. As we
know, we remain largely under the influence of quasi-NW flow aloft
along the eastern periphery of a southern US ridge axis. But going
into early tomorrow, the ridge begins to retrograde slightly into
the desert Southwest, aiding in subtle height falls across our
region. Meanwhile upstream over the central US, embedded mid-level
impulses will lead to convective initiation this afternoon and
tonight, with likely convective complex evolution into a MCS riding
southeast within progressive NW flow. HRRR trends have been
consistent on the idea that a long-tracked MCS will enter our CWA
Friday afternoon thru the evening hours. Given noticeable H3
divergence, H7 to H5 jet influx and supportive PVA makes this a
plausible solution, especially given the weakness in upper-level
heights helping to pave a "corridor" or road for MCS propagation.
The pre-storm environment per CAM soundings illustrates modest
thermal modification, largely colder H5 temperatures in the -9 to -
11C range and steeper lapse rates approaching 6.5C/km which in turn
yields larger hail growth CAPE. Will with better confidence mention
the risk for severe weather appears greater, with the main risks
being damaging straight line winds around or > than 60mph, large
hail and can`t not mention intense rainfall rates leading to
localized flooding (given 1.8-2" PW`s) but hoping this complex will
remain progressive enough to alleviate widespread flooding concerns.
Glancing at HREF >40dBZ paintball plots paints a telling picture,
showing high confidence of an MCS but placement is not as confident,
likely caused by uncertainty on location of CI upstream forecast for
later today. Strongly believe once upstream convection becomes
better organized then initialized into future CAM runs, we`ll see an
alignment of better timing and strength. But, given confidence among
short-range guidance, did decide to increase PoP`s in the FRI 18Z-
SAT 03Z time frame to follow the southward position of the complex.
This complex is quickly out of here Friday night, but with some
lingering convection possible as subtle H5 PVA/impulses ride along
the NW flow aloft. Question remains how worked over we become from
the earlier complex with lingering widespread CINH/subsidence if we
can overturn enough, but timing is not going to be helpful being
overnight. But, if dynamics can offset and we can recover enough,
upscale growth of scattered convection could be possible through the
night. Impulses may continue to ride the flow during the day on
Saturday, with no major adjustments for PoP`s needed given greater
coverage potential for eastern areas. The thermal profile aloft is
somewhat similar glancing at recent NAM runs, perhaps a slight bit
warmer aloft which will lead to the possibility of a locally strong
storm or two.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
The upper ridge axis will begin to shift eastward on Sunday,
marking a transition to another less active period of weather.
Whatever is left of the lingering surface boundary could serve as
a focus for a few isolated to widely scattered showers Sunday
afternoon, but in general, subsidence aloft associated with the
upper ridge will suppress convection. Am carrying generally slight
chance POPs across roughly near the I-10 and I-12 corridors.
The high continues to shift eastward during the first half of the
work week, and really begins to amplify and strengthen by Tuesday
as an upper trough digs into the southwestern CONUS. As the high
strengthens, convection will basically shut off with the exception
of a few rogue showers/storms each afternoon. Any showers or
storms that do manage to develop would likely do so along a sea
breeze boundary where lift is enhanced, but even then, am only
carrying "silent 10" POPs Monday through Wednesday.
A lack of cloud cover and showers/storms will allow afternoon
temperatures to rise into the mid 90s by mid week. With dewpoints
forecast in the mid to even upper 70s, afternoon heat index values
will easily cross the century mark, and may be flirting with heat
advisory criteria by mid week. Will need to monitor trends as the
time period gets closer.
&&
.AVIATION...(Valid through 00z Saturday)
Largely VFR conditions through the cycle. Some convection will
fire (has started already along a front in So Miss), which may
impact those terminals shortly. With the more ISO nature, kept
VCs respectively for now, but a short fused TEMPO may be possible
for terminals east of the Lake early this afternoon. Another
round of convection will be possible late in the cycle. Again used
VCs for some and PROB30 for MCB. Otherwise, winds should remain
on the light and variable side outside of convection.
&&
.MARINE...
Local waters will remain on the periphery of a surface high
centered over the eastern Gulf through the period. This will keep
winds generally ranging between southerly and southwesterly
depending on location and small daily shifts in the ridge axis. A
weak boundary sinking toward the coast will support scattered
showers and storms at times tonight through the weekend, but
should completely dissipate by the start of the work week.
Expect winds to increase a bit overnight as is typical this time
of year, and have hoisted an exercise caution headline for most of
the open waters tonight as winds are now forecast in the 15-20kt
range. Will likely need exercise caution headlines tomorrow night
again and possibly continuing through the weekend as the pressure
gradient tightens slightly.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 91 72 91 / 10 60 20 50
BTR 74 93 74 93 / 20 60 10 40
ASD 74 93 75 93 / 30 60 20 50
MSY 78 92 78 94 / 30 60 10 40
GPT 75 92 75 91 / 40 50 30 50
PQL 73 92 74 92 / 40 50 30 60
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Short...KLG
Long/Marine...95/DM
Aviation...Frye
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1014 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...The late afternoon storms
moved offshore into the northern Gulf of Mexico and have since
dissipated, as have the lingering showers that were also moving
south across the coastal counties of AL/FL around sunset this
evening. It`s likely that there will be some redevelopment of
showers and storms over the coastal waters of AL/FL late tonight,
but most of that redevelopment should remain offshore. Otherwise,
a warm and somewhat muggy night expected, with lows falling to the
upper 60s and lower 70s along and north of the Highway 84
corridor, but remaining in the low to mid 70s to the south. Along
the immediate beaches and barrier islands, some areas could
remain in the upper 70s.
For Friday, all eyes point upstream to an MCS, which is currently
developing over the TX panhandle, as it dives rapidly toward the
southeast late tonight and through the day on Friday. The 10.00Z
HRRR seems to have initiated quite well with this feature, and
although there is still some discrepancy with regard to other Hi-
Res Models, we will use the HRRR as our Hi-Res model of choice
for the near term period. This feature should be rolling into
southwestern AR by around daybreak Friday, and rapidly continue
southeastward through the afternoon. The MCS should be reaching
our northwestern zones by the mid afternoon hours. As such,
thinking continues to suggest that the MCS will move into our
southeast MS counties around 3 PM or so, then progress southeast
across our forecast area through the early evening hours. Probably
moving into our southwest AL counties by around 5 PM, then exiting
our western FL panhandle counties by around 8 PM. Model trends
also continue to suggest that the MCS will begin to weaken and
become somewhat more disorganized as it pushes through our
region, thanks to the upper shortwave beginning to shear out and
lift to the northeast. Therefore we expect the strongest and most
likely severe storms to be over the western half of our forecast
area, and SPC has outlooked that area and our FL panhandle
counties with a SLIGHT Risk of severe weather on Friday, with a
MARGINAL Risk over interior south central AL. Even with the best
forcing lifting away from the MCS late in the afternoon, high
instability out ahead (MLCAPEs reaching 2000-3000 J/kg, possibly
even higher, in some locations over the southern third of our
forecast area) and strong 700mb flow punching in from behind,
should allow the MCS to continue down to the coast, being
maintained by outflow. The primary threats associated with the MCS
will be damaging wind (maybe even some localized convective
gusts potentially well in excess of 60 MPH), large hail and very
heavy rainfall. This will especially be the case over the areas
with the SLIGHT outlook.
By early evening, over our southeastern counties, a weakening
trend is expected although there could be a few strong storms here
as well. Showers and storms will end over land areas for Friday
night, but a chance of convection will continue over the Gulf
waters to our south. As far as Saturday goes, there are a lot of
model inconsistencies. Some of the Hi-Res solutions really aren`t
too enthused with regard to convective activity on Saturday, the GFS
shows some coverage, while the EURO is more robust in coverages of
showers and thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon. For now will
continue to go with the EURO (NBM) with the likely coverage which is
in best agreement with our neighbors as well as there will be plenty
of instability and probably quite a few residule outflow boundaries
across the area.
Highs on Friday will warm up quickly in advance of the MCS, rising
to the lower 90s over inland areas and upper 80s along the coast.
Lows Friday night should range from the upper 60s well inland to
the low 70s over the interior south, and some mid to upper 70s
along the immediate coastal areas. Perhaps a little cooler on
Saturday in the wake of the MCS, with highs generally in the upper
80s with a few lower 90s. /12
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
...Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
Widely scattered elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue to spread over much of the area through the rest of the
afternoon and into tonight in advance of a shortwave trough moving
east/southeast across South Dakota and Nebraska. With the
instability axis well to our west and weak lapse rates overhead,
the greater threat of severe weather remains to our west through
the early evening hours. Latest CAMs continue to indicate more
organized storm development over central Nebraska after 00z in
association with a surface cold front and expand these storms,
which should remain elevated across our area, eastward into
portions of eastern Nebraska through the overnight hours. Hail
may be the initial threat with these storms before a transition to
a wind/hail threat as they move into our southwestern CWA.
Showers and a few storms should linger eastward into the overnight
hours before dissipating Friday morning. Behind this, low clouds
and fog are expected to spread across the area.
Mostly dry conditions are expected through the weekend as a midlevel
ridge builds into the central Plains. A weak surface boundary is
forecast to stall across the area Saturday night and could be the
focus for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, but chances
remain on the low side for this.
The main story as we head into next week will be the heat. Monday
looks the warmest as we will take a good run at our first day at
or above 100 for the season. With dewpoints in the 60s to near 70,
heat indices will rise into the low 100s. With the 850mb thermal
ridge remaining overhead into Monday night, we could approach
record warm lows in the mid to upper 70s, especially south of
I-80. Better precipitation chances come by mid-week as a strong
upper trough moves into the central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
TSRA are likely to affect KLNK for a few hours this evening but
then a break is expected. SHRA and maybe a few TSRA will be around
KOFK and may skirt the KOMA area too. Ceilings could drop to MVFR
in some of this precipitation. Later tonight, expect cloud bases
to lower to widespread MVFR and pockets of IFR. Model solutions
are kind of all over the place, but recent HRRR runs suggest maybe
a bit more coverage of TSRA in the area after 06Z until around
12Z. MVFR or lower ceilings are likely to linger into Friday
afternoon, with a trend toward VFR mid or late afternoon.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Miller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
834 PM PDT Thu Jun 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS...An atmospheric river moving into the region will
bring periods of seasonally unusual heavy rain to the area
through early Friday morning. This may result in hydrologic and
other impacts that may extend into the weekend. Showery and cool
weather will continue through the weekend into the early part of
next week with potentially drier and warmer weather towards mid
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...Western WA is in the midst
of an Atmospheric River event, more typical of fall/winter, with
widespread moderate to heavy rain across the region. Highest
amounts so far, in the past 24 hours, have been along the central
coast and southern Olympics where 1.50-2.50" of rain has fallen.
We`ve picked up close to 0.75-1.25" across the Seattle metro area
as well. Rain will be tapering off after midnight tonight based on
the NBM and HRRR solutions. Heavy rainfall in the Cascades is
ongoing although rivers for the most part have been slower to
respond and will continue to monitor for rises, fast flows and
possible flooding (on a few rivers). 33
Previous discussion...Lighter rain this morning has transitioned
into moderate to heavier stratiform precipitation across all of
Western Washington. As of around 3 PM low elevation rainfall
amounts have ranged from around 0.75" along the coast, and 0.25"
to 0.65" over the interior. Ensemble guidance, including higher
resolution systems continue to consistently show the plume of deep
moisture progressively shifting to the south and east overnight.
This will shift the emphasis on the heavier rainfall towards the
west slopes of the Cascades from Snohomish County Southward
overnight. Storm total precipitation amounts of 2" to 3" are
expected to fall over the Olympic Mountains and the Cascades
through Friday morning. Snow levels are expected to remain well
above 11,000 feet overnight, so precipitation will fall as rain
for all but high volcanic peaks. It should also be noted that
rainfall rates may briefly be significant (in excess of 0.5"/hr)
which may cause rapid rises on area rivers and streams as well as
ponding in urban areas. Steadier rainfall will taper off tonight
into Friday morning, transitioning to showery weather for much of
the area Friday. Steadier, but also lighter precipitation will
linger over the mountains, especially the Cascades.
A secondary surge of moisture will bring additional enhancement to
the rain late Friday into Friday evening. Ensemble guidance as
well as the higher resolution deterministic runs seem to have
settled on the emphasis for the heavier amounts to be south of the
area, mostly over the Oregon Cascades. Cooler air aloft will begin
to work into the area on Friday. This may introduce a bit of
instability and a slight chance of thunderstorms is possible
Friday afternoon. Flow on Saturday will be more onshore with
showers over much of the area and ongoing steadier precipitation
over the Cascades. A trough will move across the area Sunday into
Monday for additional rain chances. A system on Sunday is forecast
to be mainly south of the area, with the heaviest rainfall into
OR, and scattered showers for the area and a bit of enhancement
mainly to the precipitation over the central and south Washington
Cascades. Temperatures will generally remain near or just below
normal through the weekend.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A cool, generally unsettled
pattern will remain in place Monday into Tuesday with lingering
chances of rain showers. As previously discussed, ensembles
continue to show an optimistic trend towards upper level
ridging affecting the region towards midweek for potentially
drier, warming weather. Temperatures will likely remain just below
normal at least early next week with a bump to at least normal and
possibly just above normal midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...A frontal system will continue to push its way
through Western Washington tonight into early Friday and will
continue to bring moderate to heavy rainfall to the region.
Southwest flow persists aloft tonight with a very moist airmass in
place. Conditions across area terminals remain a mixed bag of
low- end MVFR to LIFR this evening. Expect these conditions to
persist through late tonight with moderate to locally heavy rain
persisting at times. Latest hi-res guidance has the heaviest rain
clearing the interior terminals between 06-08Z and turning to
showers by early Friday morning. Ceilings may briefly improve to
low end VFR across the interior terminals around mid-morning
Friday, before falling back down towards MVFR Friday afternoon
and evening ahead of another system approaching the region.
Southerly surface winds will become southwesterly with the frontal
passage and a bit gusty in its vicinity and wake.
KSEA...Primarily a mix of IFR or low MVFR conditions at the
terminal this evening. Widespread rain, moderate to heavy at
times, will continue through late tonight. Conditions are expected
to gradually improve Friday morning. Some low level wind shear is
expected tonight ahead of the approaching cold front. Surface
winds generally southerly 4 to 10 knots. 27/14
&&
.MARINE...A frontal system will continue to make its way across
the region tonight, bringing small craft advisory southerly winds
to the coastal and inland waters. Modest onshore will follow the
passage of the cold front on Friday. Deepening low pressure east
of the Cascades will lead to stronger onshore flow over the
weekend for the potential of another round of small craft advisory
winds over the coastal waters and parts of the inland waters. The
central and eastern portions of the Strait of Juan de Fuca could
be close to gale Sunday/Monday evenings. Coastal seas of 10 to 12
tonight will remain somewhat elevated into the weekend, primarily
around 7 to 9 ft, before subsiding early next week. 27/14
&&
.HYDROLOGY...An unusually wet frontal system associated with an
atmospheric river moving through the area will produce seasonally
unusual heavy rainfall through Friday morning. The forecast remains
for overall rainfall amounts of 1-2" over the Olympics and
Cascades - with some areas picking up up to 2.5-3" through Friday
morning.
This rainfall coupled with late snowmelt and runoff is
expected to produce sharp rises and fast flows on area rivers,
with minor flooding possible at a few locations. At this time, this
includes points on the Skagit, Snoqualmie and Cowlitz Rivers. The
Skokomish River currently is not forecast to flood stage, but
will continue to be monitored closely. In addition to impacts on
area rivers, rain rates could be high enough (locally over
0.5"/hour) to cause excessive runoff creating minor nuisance
flooding. While widespread landslide activity is unlikely,
isolated landslides or high- elevation rockfalls cannot be ruled
out.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Admiralty Inlet-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60
Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters
Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for Grays Harbor Bar.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/seattle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
753 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 753 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
The theme of the forecast remains intact for late tonight into
Friday morning. In the near term, adjustments were made earlier to
account for cluster of elevated showers and storms over SE KS.
This activity has been pretty reluctant to build south of the
border so far and will maintain only low PoPs in that region for
the next few hours. The main focus is both to the NW across NE and
to the west over the TX Panhandle. To the NW, storms are gradually
increasing in coverage across western NE and are expected to grow
upscale into an MCS and drop southeast into KS later tonight.
Still some uncertainty as to whether the complex makes it all the
way into NE OK late tonight, or we get scattered redevelopment on
its outflow in combination with influences from the system
approaching from the west. Speaking of the MCS to our west, the
last several hours of CAM runs suggest this will be the dominant
player in our weather thru tomorrow morning. An MCV is likely to
develop from this more organized MCS, and is expected to move
east-southeast across OK. The past several runs of the HRRR are
focusing more into east-central and southeast OK as well as west-
central AR for the MCS track, and will thus adjust severe probs
to shift axis of higher values south a bit for the evening update.
Locally heavy rainfall and flooding potential exists along the MCS
track and will thus maintain Flood Watch.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will likely be ongoing Friday
morning over portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
before the heavier precipitation shift east by early afternoon.
Weak frontal boundary will move into far northeast Oklahoma/northwest
Arkansas by late afternoon and depending on air-mass recovery, could
see a few isolated thunderstorms redevelop early Friday evening. Given
the limited coverage and uncertainty regarding storm development,
just added slight pops for now.
Cold front will push to near the Red River by Saturday morning before
lifting back north Saturday night and becoming diffuse into Sunday.
Warming trend will develop Sunday into Monday as upper ridge begins
to build over the southern Plains. Dew-points were increased by a
few degrees during this time period compared to the NBM guidance
given the expected rainfall/moist soil conditions. This pushes
heat indices into the 100-105 degree range both Sunday and Monday
afternoon in some areas. This would likely be the first days with
heat indices above 100 degrees this season, which could lead to
the increased potential for more significant heat stress.
Upper high briefly shifts into the southeast U.S. early next week
with slightly cooler temperatures possible. The hot/humid weather
quickly returns mid to late week as expansive upper high builds back
across central/southern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022
Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast to increase
across the CWA this evening and overnight tonight ahead of an
expected MCS approaching from the west and northwest. Latest
thinking is for this convective complex to push into Eastern
Oklahoma in the 07-09z time frame and into Northwest Arkansas
around 09-10z. Within the storms...gusty to strong winds and
heavy rainfall will be possible. Will continue with tempo groups
for timing of the greater convective potential. Behind the main
line of convection...there remains the potential for lingering
showers and possibly embedded thunder before tapering off west to
east mid/late morning Friday. Within the lingering
showers...IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible across the CWA. By
late morning to early afternoon Friday...conditions are forecast
to lift back to VFR and try to scatter out from west to east.
Winds outside of the convective complex look to be light and
variable tonight becoming more south to southwesterly during the
day Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 69 85 67 89 / 100 50 0 0
FSM 69 84 68 89 / 90 80 20 0
MLC 69 88 68 89 / 80 60 10 0
BVO 67 84 64 87 / 90 50 0 0
FYV 64 82 63 87 / 90 80 20 0
BYV 64 81 63 85 / 80 70 20 0
MKO 67 84 66 87 / 90 70 10 0
MIO 65 82 63 85 / 80 70 20 0
F10 69 86 66 88 / 80 50 10 0
HHW 71 92 71 93 / 50 50 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Flood Watch through Friday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...20