Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/09/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1034 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure early tonight will give way to a strong low
pressure system approaching from the lower Great Lakes Region, which
will bring another widespread rainfall late tonight through Thursday
morning. Drier weather returns for Friday with seasonable
temperatures with high pressure ridging in from the Ohio Valley.
Another low pressure system may bring some scattered showers on
Saturday and the weather pattern looks unsettled Sunday with some
afternoon showers possible with an upper level disturbance.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
.Update as of 1030 pm EDT...The water vapor loop shows a compact
short-wave moving across southern Michigan. A low pressure
system is moving across eastern OH into PA with the old cold
front this morning lifting northward as a warm front. Meanwhile,
a sfc high over southeast Ontario and northern NY will shift
eastward and weaken. High clouds have thickened and increased
the pass few hours with some radiational cooling ahead of them
with temps falling into the 50s and 60s.
Expect clouds to thicken and lower quickly from the
west/southwest overnight ahead of the wave of low pressure and
the warm front. Strong isentropic lift occurs ahead of the
cyclone and front with good upper jet dynamics towards
daybreak. The strong QG lift coupled with some elevated
instability will focus periods of moderate to locally heavy rain
to quickly overspread the region from southwest to northeast
between 07Z- 10Z/THU. We have leaned close to the latest 00Z runs
of the 3-km HRRR/NAM for the timing and have made some
adjustments to the forecast trends with this update. The pcpn
will be light initially but will quickly become moderate to
heavy for some areas. The 00Z 3-km HRRR run trended slightly
further north, but is close to the 3-km NAM with the wave
passing over or near the Capital Region.
We also kept slight to low chances of thunderstorms towards
daybreak and into the mid to late morning hours with some
elevated instability (MUCAPE < 300 J/kg)from the roughly the
I-90 corridor/Mohawk Valley/Capital Region southward. PWATs
surge a couple standard deviations above normal (1.0-1.5"+
range) and we included heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms.
The wave should lift quickly to the northeast in the late
morning and early pm. Some gusty winds could occur with
thunderstorms in the late morning. A brief dry slot may bust
through and then a line of low topped convective storms could
fire in the late morning ahead of the cold or occluded front.
Lows tonight will be in the 50s to around 60F over the mid
Hudson Valley with some upper 40s over the southern Adirondacks,
and southern Greens. See the HYDRO discussion below with more
details on the rainfall.
Previous near term...The forecast remains largely on track for
the next 36 hours which features high pressure over the forecast
area this afternoon giving way to strong low pressure system
which will shift out of the Ohio Valley tonight and across the
Northeast on Thursday. Trends in guidance from yesterdays runs
to todays 00Z have remained in place for 12Z offering a low
track directly through the CWA with widespread rainfall moving
in around sunrise Thursday, but exiting quickly by the
afternoon. While the highest PWATs and instability will
generally south and east of the forecast area a few rumbles of
thunder are possible, but overall all areas will receive a good
soaking rainfall of around 1". Rain could fall moderate to heavy
at times early in the morning and details on its possible
hydrological impacts can be found in the hydrology section
below. Drier conditions develop Thursday evening into the
overnight.
Temps through the period will be seasonally cooler than normal
except for tonight. Lows tonight will range through the 50s,
with highs Thursday only around 60 in the southern Adirondacks
to lower 70s in the lower Hudson Valley. Lows Thursday night
will be cool in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 PM EDT Wednesday...A pleasant end of the work week is
expected with surface high pressure dominating the region.
Aloft the flow is more zonal offering a mix of sun and clouds
through the day, but temperatures will rebound to seasonal
values in the mid-60s across the Adirondacks to mid/upper 70s
elsewhere. Steepening low level lapse rate through the day will
also support some slightly gusty winds up to 25 mph. Increasing
clouds ahead of the next system are expected Friday night, but
conditions remain dry with any gusty winds abating and temps
falling off into the mid 40s north to mid 50s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Updated at 930 pm EDT...
The extended forecast will feature a mean mid and upper level
trough impacting NY and New England most of the long term until
Tuesday with a trend to drier weather and potentially above
normal temps heading into the mid week.
The NBM was used for the long term, and some uncertainty exists
on the track of a short-wave rounding the base of the upper
trough to open the weekend. Some of the guidance such as the 12Z
ECMWF has tracked further south with the wave, but the GFS is
further north as it passes north of Long Island. Chances of
showers were maintained during the day with temps running a
little below normal with 60s and lower 70s. The showers diminish
Saturday night with lows falling back into the mid 40s to mid
50s. Another short-wave approaches from the Great Lakes Region
rotating around the upper-level trough centered south of James
Bay. Steep low level lapse rates tied to the diurnal heating
coupled with cooler air aloft (steepening mid level lapse rates)
will likely focus isolated to scattered showers and possibly
thunderstorms. For now, have kept showers with limited
instability and the timing of the short-wave variable on the
medium range guidance. Temps will be slightly warmer than
Saturday with low to mid 70s in the valleys and 60s to around
70F over the hills and mtns. The scattered showers may linger
overnight before diminishing towards daybreak.
The cold pool to the upper low and another impulse moving
through may focus more scattered showers for Monday. Max temps
will run close to normal and lows Sunday and Monday night will
generally be in the 50s with a few upper 40s over the mtns.
Tuesday into Wednesday...The mid and upper level trough begins
to shift downstream over New England. The forecast area continues
to be in northwest flow aloft on Tuesday with a high amplitude
ridge building in over the Ontario, Great Lakes Region and
Midwest. A few showers may be possible east of the Hudson River
Valley on Tuesday, but the ridge aloft and sfc high pressure
ridging in from the central and eastern Great Lakes over NY and
New England for WED will signal drier weather and a trend to
slightly above normal temps to close the extended.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley region will track
northeast into eastern New York Thursday morning, and into
northern New England Thursday afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected through at least midnight. Then, an
area of rain will spread from southwest to northeast across the
TAF sites between roughly 06Z-10Z/Thu. Flight conditions should
deteriorate to MVFR/IFR after an hour or two of rain onset.
Periods of moderate to heavy rain will then be possible through
at least 15Z/Thu, with embedded thunderstorms possible, mainly
at KALB, KPOU and KPSF. Areas of IFR/LIFR will be possible.
The steady rain should taper to showers between 15Z-18Z/Thu.
However, as a cold front tracks eastward, there could be a line
or band of showers/thunderstorms at KALB, KPOU and KPSF.
Conditions should improve to MVFR, then VFR in the wake of the
cold front between 18Z-20Z/Thu.
Light/variable winds will trend into the northeast to east after
midnight at less than 8 KT. Winds will then remain east to
northeast at KGFL through around 15Z/Thu, while becoming south
to southeast at 8-12 KT at KPSF, KALB and KPOU between 12Z-
15Z/Thu. Winds will then shift into the southwest, then west in
the wake of the cold front between roughly 17Z-19Z/Thu, with
speeds of 8-14 KT, and gusts of 20-25 KT at times.
Low level wind shear is possible between roughly 09Z/Thu-14Z/Thu
at KGFL, KPSF and KPOU, as surface winds will initially be from
the northeast through southeast at 5-10 KT, while winds around
2000 FT AGL increase from the southeast to south at 30-35 KT.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong low pressure system will move in late tonight through
Thursday with another widespread soaking rainfall expected.
RH values in the 40 to 60 percent range this afternoon will
rebound to 90 to 100 percent tonight. RH values will be between
80-100 percent to start Thursday, then may lower to 60 to 80
percent later in the day, should precipitation end.
Wind will become westerly today at speeds 10-20 mph. Wind
becomes light and variable tonight and will widely vary in
direction and speed on Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The brief stretch of dry weather will end in the early morning
hours, as a low pressure system approaches from the south and
west. This system will bring a widespread soaking rainfall with
a few thunderstorms to the region late tonight through Thursday.
Rainfall amounts remain will range from 0.50 to 1.50 inches
with a few locally higher amounts over the Litchfield Hills and
southern Taconics. This rainfall is needed and should lead to
some additional rises on rivers and streams, but no river
flooding is forecast at this time. However, some locally heavy
downpours are expected to occur which could briefly allow for
ponding of water on roadways in urban and low lying locations.
Dry weather returns Thursday night through through Friday with
high pressure building in once again. Another system tracking
south of the region may bring some scattered showers on
Saturday. Rainfall amounts will be on the lighter with a few
hundredths to a quarter of an inch. Flows should continue to
recede into the weekend.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Rathbun/Lahiff
LONG TERM...Wasula/Lahiff
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun/Lahiff
HYDROLOGY...Rathbun/Wasula
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
931 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through late tonight, then stall off the
coast on Thursday. Another front could arrive early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A few showers/tstms will linger next the coast for just a tad
longer before mostly quiet conditions prevail. Near term pops
were adjusted to reflect current radar trends. Late tonight, it
is still unclear how much convection associated with an upstream
shortwave will push into the region from the west. RAP and H3R
progs support at least scattered activity while the latest HREF
is a bit less aggressive. 20-30% pops were maintained after 08z
to account for this possibility. Lows will range from the lower
70s inland to the upper 70s at the beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front will drift through the area Thursday morning and
then stall off the coast Thursday afternoon. The airmass behind
the front will remain relatively moist, though dewpoints could
drop into the mid/upper 60s far inland during the afternoon. Low
and mid level flow will be westerly, resulting in broad
subsidence. This should limit convective development until the
sea breeze begins to force isolated showers/tstms near the coast
early in the afternoon. Some models depict an MCS associated
with an upper shortwave moving through southern GA mid to late
Thursday afternoon.
A drier, more stable airmass will settle over the area on
Friday. Deep westerly flow will suppress updrafts, minimizing
chances for convection. Conditions will be slightly more
favorable for convection along the Altamaha River in GA so we
have a slight chance PoP in that area. Highs will be in the low
90s.
Weak low pressure will move northeast through the area on
Saturday. Lapse rates will improve and moderate instability will
overspread the area from the south during the day. Scattered
showers and tstms will be possible as diurnal heating occurs.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong upper ridge will build over the area for next week,
bringing unseasonably warm temperatures to the area while
minimizing convective potential. Monday through Wednesday high
temps could reach the upper 90s to near 100F inland. Fortunately
the dewpoints will mix down into the mid/upper 60s during the
hottest hours, keeping heat indices generally less than 105F.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. A band of showers and possible tstms could approach the
terminals from the west prior to daybreak Thursday, but
confidence of this activity reaching this far east during the
diurnal minimum is fairly low. VCSH and VCTS will be utilized
11-15z to account for this.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. Brief restrictions
possible with afternoon showers/tstms through Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
This Evening and Tonight: Outside a few potentially strong
thunderstorms near the coast early this evening, winds/seas are
expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through the
overnight period as the area remains between high pressure centered
well off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and low pressure inland (potentially
an approaching MCS advancing toward the Southeast United States). In
general, south winds should range between 10-15 kt this evening,
then increase to 15-20 kt overnight due a slight increase in the
pressure gradient and low-lvl wind field late. Seas should average
between 2-4 ft.
Thursday through Monday: Conditions should remain below
advisory levels through the middle of next week. Winds will
briefly turn NE across the SC waters on Friday as high pressure
builds from the north. Otherwise, S to SW flow will persist with
speeds less than 15 kt and seas 4 ft or less.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
249 PM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Daytime temperatures continue to hover around the 100 degree-mark
as the week finishes off. Weekend daytime temperatures expected
to rise to their highest points and stay around the 105 degree
mark into the beginning of next week. Breezy conditions are to be
expected. Increasing moisture and convection may spark isolated
and scattered storms in parts of New Mexico for Wednesday and
Thursday evenings.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
Satellite currently shows an outflow pushing through the area with
the boundary along the Rio Grande early this afternoon. Observations
show surface dew points in the mid 50s behind the boundary. Easterly
winds and surface moisture will continue to push through the area
this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are are currently forming over
the northern higher terrain (Gila Region and Sacramento Mtns). These
storms will continue to grow, as temperatures rise to 5 to 10
degrees above normal this afternoon (heat supported by ~35C 850 mbs
temperatures). An upper level high pressure continues to sit over
the area, with light south and west winds aloft. Directional shear
is present this afternoon, which could help storms organize and
strengthen. High surface dew point depressions, combined with a
fairly dry mid to upper level will make for damaging winds with
these storms and minor hail where it can form. As storms from the
mountains begin to die, outflows will rush through the lower
elevations this evening and later tonight, keeping thunderstorm
chances for the lower elevations around through midnight.
The atmosphere should begin to stabilize after midnight, as east
winds start to nocturnally surge. Gusty winds will be seen on the
west slopes of the Franklins and Organs, as well as the plateau of
southern Otero and Hudspeth counties. This push will surge 0.7-0.9
inches of PW all the way past the AZ/NM border tonight.
East winds will start to weaken around sunrise Thursday. The ridge
of high pressure aloft remains in place, so the influx of moisture
will have no force to push it out of the area. This means a repeat
of thunderstorm activity for Thursday afternoon as well. High
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but still around 5
degrees above normal. Convective temperatures will easily be reached
in the mountains. The environment remains similar, with slightly
more chances for precipitation to reach the ground. Outflow
boundaries will engulf the lower elevations in the late afternoon
and evening hours, creating gusty and dusty conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Thursday evening looks to be quite active, relatively speaking,
across the Borderland. Models suggesting outflow boundaries may
linger across the area within a weakly unstable atmosphere (across
the lowlands). The HRRR paints a particularly active picture as
far as thunderstorm coverage goes. These scattered storms should
not be particularly strong, but lightning and brief gusty winds
will be possible. Thereafter, high pressure dominates Friday
through the weekend with temperatures approaching and likely
eclipsing the mid 100s across the lowlands. A heat advisory will
likely be needed this weekend. Additionally, remaining modest
moisture/instability will continue the threat for isolated
thunderstorms, mainly across the higher terrain.
Into the early portions of next week, high pressure will shift
east as energy aloft moves into the Rockies. Consequently, west
and southwest winds will increase into the breezy to mildly breezy
category, with a likely break in much of the thunderstorm
activity. However, there are hints of moisture moving both west and
north around the west periphery of the high pressure, focusing on
the Continental Divide. As a result, shower and thunderstorm
activity during the middle to potentially later portions of next
week will be possible, particularly west of the Rio Grande, but
this will be monitored. Ensemble guidance suggests the highest
PWAT airmass will focus into AZ, but we`ll have to see how much of
that deliciously moist airmass we can obtain in western NM. Given
moisture increases with southeast winds mid to late week,
temperatures should decrease by a few degrees, from perhaps the
low to mid 100s to around 100, or the upper 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
NE push have veered winds to 050-110 for KTCS. Westerly winds AOB
15kts for KELP/KDMN/KLRU with gusts up to 25 will continue
through 00Z. Afternoon mountain convection will fill skies in the
afternoon with cigs SCT080-100 and BKN200. There is a chance for
VCTS for all sites after 22Z, but it depends on where storms
develop through the day. As of now KTCS has the best chance for
seeing VCTS/SH. Outflows from storms could bring BLDU and gusty
winds to impacted terminals. Winds will shift NE/E for all
terminals after 00Z. Gusty winds are possible during its passage,
especially over far west TX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
East winds will push more moisture into the region today,
creating scattered afternoon thunderstorm chances for most of the
area. Higher terrain areas east of the Rio Grande valley will see
the best chances for the strongest thunderstorms and wetting rains
at the surface today and tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorms will
also build over the higher terrain of the Gila Region, but will
have a harder time saturating the column. This means dry lightning
threats, and gusty outflow winds will be seen with storms that do
form west of the Rio Grande Valley. Outflow winds will rush
through the lowlands this evening and tonight, until finally the
atmosphere will stabilize after midnight. Moderately gusty east
winds will surge west after midnight, with the strongest winds on
the west slopes of the Franklins and Organs, as well as the
plateau of southern Otero and Hudspeth counties. Winds will
diminish around sunrise, with another round of thunderstorm
chances Thursday and Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain hot through early next week, with high
temperatures reaching to 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The moisture
will hang around through early next week under a ridge of high
pressure, keeping overnight recoveries healthy. However, warm
temperatures and high mixing heights in the afternoon will bring min
RH values back down to below 15% almost every day.
Critical fire weather conditions could return early next week, as
models hint at the next upper level trough dipping down to the
southwest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 74 101 73 103 / 10 10 10 0
Sierra Blanca 68 94 69 97 / 20 0 0 0
Las Cruces 69 100 70 103 / 10 10 10 0
Alamogordo 65 98 67 101 / 20 20 10 0
Cloudcroft 50 75 54 78 / 30 60 20 20
Truth or Consequences 69 97 70 101 / 10 20 20 0
Silver City 66 91 67 95 / 0 30 20 0
Deming 67 99 66 103 / 0 10 10 0
Lordsburg 68 98 67 101 / 0 10 20 0
West El Paso Metro 73 100 74 103 / 10 10 20 0
Dell City 63 98 66 101 / 20 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 69 102 69 104 / 20 0 10 0
Loma Linda 68 93 69 96 / 20 10 10 0
Fabens 71 102 70 103 / 10 10 10 0
Santa Teresa 69 99 69 101 / 10 10 20 0
White Sands HQ 74 98 75 101 / 10 20 20 0
Jornada Range 67 97 68 101 / 20 20 20 0
Hatch 68 98 69 102 / 10 20 10 0
Columbus 71 99 70 102 / 10 10 10 0
Orogrande 69 99 69 101 / 10 10 10 0
Mayhill 54 84 58 88 / 30 50 10 10
Mescalero 53 85 57 89 / 30 50 20 10
Timberon 56 83 58 86 / 20 40 10 10
Winston 59 91 61 95 / 20 40 20 0
Hillsboro 66 94 69 98 / 10 30 20 0
Spaceport 66 96 67 101 / 20 20 20 0
Lake Roberts 59 92 59 96 / 10 40 10 10
Hurley 62 96 63 99 / 0 20 20 0
Cliff 53 101 54 104 / 0 20 10 0
Mule Creek 63 93 64 97 / 0 30 0 0
Faywood 64 94 66 98 / 10 20 10 0
Animas 67 99 65 101 / 10 20 10 0
Hachita 66 97 66 101 / 10 20 10 0
Antelope Wells 67 96 65 99 / 20 30 20 0
Cloverdale 66 93 65 95 / 20 30 20 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
31-Dhuyvetter/35-DeLizio/31
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
621 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022
Another day with clear skies, southerly winds, and hot temperatures,
though very slightly moderated today and tomorrow relative to how we
started the week and how we are expected to end it. Overnight/early
morning storms near the Red River sent a strong outflow boundary
south into Central TX, but it has gradually weakened upon approach
and HRRR runs stall out the northerly wind shift this afternoon over
Llano, Burnet, and Williamson Counties.
Highs today should top out from 97-103 for most locations, and a
Special Weather Statement remains in effect for the entire CWA to
message heat safety. Tomorrow, a touch cooler, particularly across
the Hill Country, with highs there in the mid to upper 90s except
warmer for Llano/Burnet. Elsewhere, near 100 to about 103 again.
Heat indices will top out around 104-106 for all but the Hill
Country/Southern Edwards Plateau and another SPS will likely be
issued by the overnight shift for many areas. As we`ve seen the past
several nights, any dry air that is able to mix to the surface will
quickly be replaced by high dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s
overnight, leading to the development of low clouds for ~6 hours
give or take in the late overnight/early morning hours.
Record High (6/9) Forecast High
Austin Bergstrom 99 (1948) 100
Austin Mabry 101 (2008) 100
San Antonio 104 (1910) 100
Del Rio 112 (1988) 101
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022
The heat continues this Friday into this weekend and next week. The
subtropical high pressure system dominating the area centered across
west Texas by Friday is forecast to move eastward over the weekend.
By Saturday and Sunday, the high is forecast to stay overhead to
produce the highest daily temperatures areawide. Maximum high
temperatures are forecast to range from 100 to 102 degrees across
elevated locations in the Hill Country with the rest of the area
ranging from 103 to 107 degrees. It is likely to have Heat Advisories
out for parts of South Central Texas this coming weekend into early
next week.
Hot and dry conditions persist through the upcoming work week with
slightly cooler temperatures (upper 90s to 101 degrees)for Wednesday
and Thursday. With this hot and dry weather pattern in place and
little change in the next 7 days, the message to share is to take
heat safety precaution and monitor trusted sources for information on
this heat wave.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022
All terminals are VFR and will stay VFR through the evening. An
outflow boundary has turned the winds to the northeast through east.
Winds should shift back to the southeast later this evening. MVFR
ceilings will develop overnight and last until late morning Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 100 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 101 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 72 99 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 77 101 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 73 100 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 74 101 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 74 101 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 101 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 75 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 76 103 76 105 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...KCW
Long-Term...17
Aviation...05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
249 PM PDT Wed Jun 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS...A late season atmospheric river will impact portions of
the Pacific Northwest late Thursday through Saturday with periods of
rain and humid conditions. Exact rain amounts remain uncertain at
this time. Cool and showery conditions are expected Sunday into early
next week, but less humid.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Quiet weather will
continue northwest OR and southwest WA through tonight as weak
surface high pressure remains over the area. Changes are on the way
though, as a late-season atmospheric river begins to impact portions
of the region beginning tomorrow morning/afternoon. Prolonged moist
southwesterly flow aloft will bring two separate rounds of rain to
the area, which will be separated by a distinct break. The first
round of rain will impact the area Thursday through Friday morning,
mainly to the north of Eugene and heaviest over southwest WA. The
second round of rain arrives sometime Friday evening or Friday night
and continues into Saturday.
IVT plume forecasts from the GEFS/EPS are still showing IVT values
peaking around 1000 kg/ms with the first round of rain, which
suggests a strong to extreme atmospheric river. That said, these
extreme values are quite short-lived, and IVT values quickly decrease
to 250-500 kg/ms on Saturday, which suggests a weak atmospheric
river. PWAT values are still expected to be very high with the first
round of rain, peaking at around 1.5-1.7 inches. PWAT values decrease
a bit for the second round of rain, but not by very much. With the
moisture-rich airmass in place, it will feel quite humid Thursday
night through Friday night as surface dew point temperatures increase
to 60-65 degrees. While there will clearly be abundant moisture,
there does appear to be a significant lack of forcing to help realize
all of this moisture in the form of heavy rain. This is true for both
synoptic-scale forcing and frontogenetical mesoscale forcing, as both
the GFS and the EURO show very little to no Q-vector convergence over
the area with very little to no frontogenesis. Even orographic lift
will be a bit limited compared to our typical atmospheric river
events, as 850 mb winds look to top out at only 20-30 kts. The
overall lack of forcing should limit the hourly rain rate potential
and make it difficult for prolonged periods of heavy rain to occur,
favoring a steady light to moderate rain instead. This is good news
in regards to debris flow concerns over/near burn areas, as hourly
rain rates look to peak at around 0.2-0.4 inches per hour according
to the HRRR and 1km UWWRF; this is generally not high enough to
produce debris flows or flash flooding in our area. Minor flooding in
urban areas cannot be completely ruled out though, at least in
low-lying areas with poor drainage. This will be especially true for
southwest WA and the Portland metro, where forecast rain amounts are
the highest aside from the mountains. Hydroplaning may also be an
issue for motorists at times. How much rain will fall from the first
round of rain? Well, it is still impossible to determine exact rain
amounts as models and their ensembles are still showing a good deal
of model spread. WPC QPF appears to be close in line with the NBM
50th percentile guidance, which seems like a reasonable outcome and
gives the interior lowlands around 0.25-0.50 inches of rain (except
0.5-0.75 inches for the southwest WA lowlands and 0.1-0.20 inches for
the Eugene area). Forecast rain amounts are around 0.5-1.0 inches
along the coast, lowest from Florence to Newport and highest from
Tillamook northward. Rain amounts are around 1-2 inches for the
Cascades, except the Lane and Linn County Cascades which should see
less than a quarter inch.
How much rain will fall from the second round of rain late Friday
into Saturday? Unfortunately it is still too soon to tell, as model
spread increases even more with the second round of rain. Decided to
stick with WPC guidance for this round as well, which gives the
lowlands another 0.25-0.75 inches of rain, 1.0-2.5 inches of rain for
the Cascades, and around 0.5-0.75 inches of rain for the Coast Range.
It still appears the NBM 90th-95th percentile QPF guidance would need
to verify for river flooding concerns to crop up, which means there
is only a 5-10% chance that our area will see enough rain to result
in at least some river flooding. While this is quite a small chance,
we are still messaging it since river flooding would likely end up
being high-impact if it were to occur. Precipitation should become
more showery Saturday night, with rain shadowing likely over the
Willamette Valley. -TK
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Tuesday night...The deterministic
GFS/EURO continue to show a cool upper level trough swinging through
the Pacific Northwest Sunday morning and early afternoon, bringing
another round of showers to the area with below normal temperatures.
The NBM is suggesting highs only in the mid 60s over the lowlands,
except upper 50s to around 60 along the coast. This is around 10
degrees below normal for mid June, at least for inland locations. The
WPC`s cluster analysis depicts high confidence for below normal 500
mb heights over the region early next week, suggesting the cool and
showery weather pattern will continue into Monday and Tuesday. The
NBM is picking up on this with PoPs around 20-40 percent and high
temperatures in the 60s. If you are hoping for hot, dry, summer-like
weather, it looks like you will have to keep waiting for the
foreseeable future. If you prefer the cool and wet onshore flow
pattern, then you are in luck! -TK
&&
.AVIATION...00z TAFs: As of 21z, Widespread VFR conditions across
SW Washington and NW Oregon are expected to continue for the next
24 hours. Light W-NW winds this afternoon will become southerly
by early Thursday morning as a front nears. The front will spread
light rain to the north coast around 15Z Thursday. Visibilities
and ceilings will likely lower to MVFR across the coastal and
mountain areas of SW Washington and extreme NW Oregon Thursday
afternoon and evening. The front will produce gusty south winds
along the north coast Thursday afternoon and night where gusts up
to 35 kt are possible.
For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online
to: https://weather.gov/zse
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected for the next 24
hours. A front will bring a chance of rain to KPDX Thursday
evening and night. NBM 4.1 forecasts a 50 percent chance of
ceilings being lower than 3000 feet at KPDX thursday night into
Friday morning as the front moves through with a 10% chance of
ceilings less than 1000 feet. The probabilities of having MVFR
visibilities is less impressive with a 10 percent chance of
visibility less than 5 miles and a 2 % chance of visibility less
than a mile. ~TJ
&&
.MARINE...South winds generally less than 10 kt tonight ahead of an
approaching front. South winds will increase Thursday morning as the
front nears with small craft advisory winds developing in the late
morning. A brief period of gusty strong winds are expected late
Thursday afternoon and evening with marginal gale force gusts
possible across the northern waters (mostly north of Lincoln City)
Thursday afternoon through the night. GEFS and NAEFS forecasts 10 to
20 percent chance that the winds will exceed 30 kt, but less than a
5 percent chance that the winds will exceed 34 kt. Despite the
marginal nature of the gales, decided to upgrade the gale watch to a
gale warning for the northern waters, especially since the expected
wind intensity is atypical for this time of the year. Winds will be
weaker in the southern waters (off Central Oregon), where a small
craft advisory has been issued.Combined seas appear likely to exceed
10 ft for several hours Thursday evening into Thursday night as wind
waves build.
Another front is expected Friday into Saturday, but it is much
weaker, and expect winds and seas to remain below small craft
advisory criteria.
Unseasonal high moisture content is available with these fronts,
and expect tight temperature to dewpoint temperature gradients
will lead to fog development near shore. NBM 4.1 forecasts a 55%
chance that visibilities will be less than 5 miles at Buoy 46029
on Thursday afternoon and evening, with a 25% chance of
visibilities less than 3 miles, and a 15% chance the visibility
will be less than a mile. ~TJ
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM PDT Thursday for coastal waters
from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for
coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60
nm.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
314 PM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022
Key Messages:
1) Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening, mainly over the
southern Sangres/Raton Mesa/Las Animas County region
2) Severe storm potential increases along and east of the mountains
on Thursday, with the strongest storms near the Kansas border
Currently, pool of cooler/drier/more stable air has spread over much
of southeastern Colorado today in the wake of overnight cold frontal
passage and MCS, with cumulus field limited to mainly the southern
Sangres and the swrn mts. For the remainder of the afternoon into
the evening, most CAMs suggest isolated thunderstorms will evolve
from the current shallow convective cloud field, with perhaps a
couple stronger storms forming around La Veta Pass and then
migrating e-se over Las Animas County before ending by late evening.
HRRR looks most aggressive with convection, as it has slightly
deeper instability farther east, while other models keep activity
closer to the higher terrain. Severe chance looks fairly low given
modest instability(CAPE 500-800 J/KG), and latest SWODY1 has shifted
the marginal risk south into New Mexico. Activity dies by late
evening, though will have to watch the far sern corner, as a few
showers are possible late under the increasing low level jet.
On Thursday, flow aloft increases slightly with weak upper wave
migrating through the area. Dryline sharpens up on the plains, with
a ribbon of 1500-3000 CAPE ahead of it near the KS border by
afternoon, while 0-6km shear is in the 30-40 kt range to the east of
I-25. SWODY2 slight risk catches the eastern 2 tiers of counties on
the plains, which seems reasonable, with marginal back west to
Interstate 25 to account for high-based/wind producing convection
behind the dry line. Even ahead of the dry line, strong winds may be
the most likely severe risk as low level flow stays s-sw, though any
persistent storms may rotate enough to produce large hail. Models
at this point keep convective coverage fairly isolated, so won`t go
too high on pops yet. Max temps warm considerably versus Wed as
downslope flow kicks in, and 90s will return to much of the plains
by afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022
Key Messages:
1) Hot and dry through this weekend with near record temperatures in
the San Luis Valley and triple digit highs on the plains.
2) Critical fire weather conditions return as early as Friday in the
San Luis Valley.
Thursday Night through Sunday..
GEFS and EPS are in good agreement with ridging building in aloft
from Friday through the weekend. A very weak frontal passage early
on Friday will cool us down slightly and keep highs in the upper 80s
to low nineties on the plains, but we will likely maintain above
average daytime highs throughout the weekend. Most of our plains
look to hit triple digits on both Saturday and Sunday, and the San
Luis Valley is forecasted to surpass their record high for 11 June
on Saturday as well. Humidity values stay high enough to avoid fire
weather headlines east of Interstate 25 all weekend, but we will
likely hit Red Flag criteria on both Friday and Sunday afternoon in
the San Luis Valley where humidity falls into the low teens by 1pm.
We could see marginal fire weather concerns on Saturday there as
well, but might not meet the 3 hour minimum thresholds, especially
for humidity values.
Monday through Wednesday..
Both the GEFS and EPS are showing troughing and strong southwesterly
flow to start out the week, but timing and placement vary somewhat.
The overall consensus is to keep the system rather north of us. This
track will likely lead to a fairly widespread fire weather day for
us in south central and southeastern Colorado on Monday, as any
precipitation would be limited to our central mountains. We`ll see
another day of critical to severe fire weather conditions, and the
issuance of highlights will depend heavily on fuels status after
recent appreciable precipitation. As the trough passes to our a
north, it sends a cold front through Colorado late Monday and into
Tuesday bringing with it some cooler temperatures and better chances
for rain and thunderstorms for both Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022
VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Isolated tsra this afternoon
into early evening will stay over/close to the higher terrain, and
any impacts at the terminals should be limited to briefly gusty
outflow winds as storms dissipate. On Thursday, slightly higher risk
of storms at all sites, with periods of gusty/erratic outflows in
the afternoon and evening.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...PETERSEN