Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/09/22

National Weather Service Albany NY
1034 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure early tonight will give way to a strong low pressure system approaching from the lower Great Lakes Region, which will bring another widespread rainfall late tonight through Thursday morning. Drier weather returns for Friday with seasonable temperatures with high pressure ridging in from the Ohio Valley. Another low pressure system may bring some scattered showers on Saturday and the weather pattern looks unsettled Sunday with some afternoon showers possible with an upper level disturbance. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... .Update as of 1030 pm EDT...The water vapor loop shows a compact short-wave moving across southern Michigan. A low pressure system is moving across eastern OH into PA with the old cold front this morning lifting northward as a warm front. Meanwhile, a sfc high over southeast Ontario and northern NY will shift eastward and weaken. High clouds have thickened and increased the pass few hours with some radiational cooling ahead of them with temps falling into the 50s and 60s. Expect clouds to thicken and lower quickly from the west/southwest overnight ahead of the wave of low pressure and the warm front. Strong isentropic lift occurs ahead of the cyclone and front with good upper jet dynamics towards daybreak. The strong QG lift coupled with some elevated instability will focus periods of moderate to locally heavy rain to quickly overspread the region from southwest to northeast between 07Z- 10Z/THU. We have leaned close to the latest 00Z runs of the 3-km HRRR/NAM for the timing and have made some adjustments to the forecast trends with this update. The pcpn will be light initially but will quickly become moderate to heavy for some areas. The 00Z 3-km HRRR run trended slightly further north, but is close to the 3-km NAM with the wave passing over or near the Capital Region. We also kept slight to low chances of thunderstorms towards daybreak and into the mid to late morning hours with some elevated instability (MUCAPE < 300 J/kg)from the roughly the I-90 corridor/Mohawk Valley/Capital Region southward. PWATs surge a couple standard deviations above normal (1.0-1.5"+ range) and we included heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms. The wave should lift quickly to the northeast in the late morning and early pm. Some gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms in the late morning. A brief dry slot may bust through and then a line of low topped convective storms could fire in the late morning ahead of the cold or occluded front. Lows tonight will be in the 50s to around 60F over the mid Hudson Valley with some upper 40s over the southern Adirondacks, and southern Greens. See the HYDRO discussion below with more details on the rainfall. Previous near term...The forecast remains largely on track for the next 36 hours which features high pressure over the forecast area this afternoon giving way to strong low pressure system which will shift out of the Ohio Valley tonight and across the Northeast on Thursday. Trends in guidance from yesterdays runs to todays 00Z have remained in place for 12Z offering a low track directly through the CWA with widespread rainfall moving in around sunrise Thursday, but exiting quickly by the afternoon. While the highest PWATs and instability will generally south and east of the forecast area a few rumbles of thunder are possible, but overall all areas will receive a good soaking rainfall of around 1". Rain could fall moderate to heavy at times early in the morning and details on its possible hydrological impacts can be found in the hydrology section below. Drier conditions develop Thursday evening into the overnight. Temps through the period will be seasonally cooler than normal except for tonight. Lows tonight will range through the 50s, with highs Thursday only around 60 in the southern Adirondacks to lower 70s in the lower Hudson Valley. Lows Thursday night will be cool in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 410 PM EDT Wednesday...A pleasant end of the work week is expected with surface high pressure dominating the region. Aloft the flow is more zonal offering a mix of sun and clouds through the day, but temperatures will rebound to seasonal values in the mid-60s across the Adirondacks to mid/upper 70s elsewhere. Steepening low level lapse rate through the day will also support some slightly gusty winds up to 25 mph. Increasing clouds ahead of the next system are expected Friday night, but conditions remain dry with any gusty winds abating and temps falling off into the mid 40s north to mid 50s south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Updated at 930 pm EDT... The extended forecast will feature a mean mid and upper level trough impacting NY and New England most of the long term until Tuesday with a trend to drier weather and potentially above normal temps heading into the mid week. The NBM was used for the long term, and some uncertainty exists on the track of a short-wave rounding the base of the upper trough to open the weekend. Some of the guidance such as the 12Z ECMWF has tracked further south with the wave, but the GFS is further north as it passes north of Long Island. Chances of showers were maintained during the day with temps running a little below normal with 60s and lower 70s. The showers diminish Saturday night with lows falling back into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Another short-wave approaches from the Great Lakes Region rotating around the upper-level trough centered south of James Bay. Steep low level lapse rates tied to the diurnal heating coupled with cooler air aloft (steepening mid level lapse rates) will likely focus isolated to scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms. For now, have kept showers with limited instability and the timing of the short-wave variable on the medium range guidance. Temps will be slightly warmer than Saturday with low to mid 70s in the valleys and 60s to around 70F over the hills and mtns. The scattered showers may linger overnight before diminishing towards daybreak. The cold pool to the upper low and another impulse moving through may focus more scattered showers for Monday. Max temps will run close to normal and lows Sunday and Monday night will generally be in the 50s with a few upper 40s over the mtns. Tuesday into Wednesday...The mid and upper level trough begins to shift downstream over New England. The forecast area continues to be in northwest flow aloft on Tuesday with a high amplitude ridge building in over the Ontario, Great Lakes Region and Midwest. A few showers may be possible east of the Hudson River Valley on Tuesday, but the ridge aloft and sfc high pressure ridging in from the central and eastern Great Lakes over NY and New England for WED will signal drier weather and a trend to slightly above normal temps to close the extended. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley region will track northeast into eastern New York Thursday morning, and into northern New England Thursday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected through at least midnight. Then, an area of rain will spread from southwest to northeast across the TAF sites between roughly 06Z-10Z/Thu. Flight conditions should deteriorate to MVFR/IFR after an hour or two of rain onset. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will then be possible through at least 15Z/Thu, with embedded thunderstorms possible, mainly at KALB, KPOU and KPSF. Areas of IFR/LIFR will be possible. The steady rain should taper to showers between 15Z-18Z/Thu. However, as a cold front tracks eastward, there could be a line or band of showers/thunderstorms at KALB, KPOU and KPSF. Conditions should improve to MVFR, then VFR in the wake of the cold front between 18Z-20Z/Thu. Light/variable winds will trend into the northeast to east after midnight at less than 8 KT. Winds will then remain east to northeast at KGFL through around 15Z/Thu, while becoming south to southeast at 8-12 KT at KPSF, KALB and KPOU between 12Z- 15Z/Thu. Winds will then shift into the southwest, then west in the wake of the cold front between roughly 17Z-19Z/Thu, with speeds of 8-14 KT, and gusts of 20-25 KT at times. Low level wind shear is possible between roughly 09Z/Thu-14Z/Thu at KGFL, KPSF and KPOU, as surface winds will initially be from the northeast through southeast at 5-10 KT, while winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the southeast to south at 30-35 KT. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A strong low pressure system will move in late tonight through Thursday with another widespread soaking rainfall expected. RH values in the 40 to 60 percent range this afternoon will rebound to 90 to 100 percent tonight. RH values will be between 80-100 percent to start Thursday, then may lower to 60 to 80 percent later in the day, should precipitation end. Wind will become westerly today at speeds 10-20 mph. Wind becomes light and variable tonight and will widely vary in direction and speed on Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... The brief stretch of dry weather will end in the early morning hours, as a low pressure system approaches from the south and west. This system will bring a widespread soaking rainfall with a few thunderstorms to the region late tonight through Thursday. Rainfall amounts remain will range from 0.50 to 1.50 inches with a few locally higher amounts over the Litchfield Hills and southern Taconics. This rainfall is needed and should lead to some additional rises on rivers and streams, but no river flooding is forecast at this time. However, some locally heavy downpours are expected to occur which could briefly allow for ponding of water on roadways in urban and low lying locations. Dry weather returns Thursday night through through Friday with high pressure building in once again. Another system tracking south of the region may bring some scattered showers on Saturday. Rainfall amounts will be on the lighter with a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch. Flows should continue to recede into the weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Rathbun/Lahiff LONG TERM...Wasula/Lahiff AVIATION...KL FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun/Lahiff HYDROLOGY...Rathbun/Wasula
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
931 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will pass through late tonight, then stall off the coast on Thursday. Another front could arrive early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A few showers/tstms will linger next the coast for just a tad longer before mostly quiet conditions prevail. Near term pops were adjusted to reflect current radar trends. Late tonight, it is still unclear how much convection associated with an upstream shortwave will push into the region from the west. RAP and H3R progs support at least scattered activity while the latest HREF is a bit less aggressive. 20-30% pops were maintained after 08z to account for this possibility. Lows will range from the lower 70s inland to the upper 70s at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The cold front will drift through the area Thursday morning and then stall off the coast Thursday afternoon. The airmass behind the front will remain relatively moist, though dewpoints could drop into the mid/upper 60s far inland during the afternoon. Low and mid level flow will be westerly, resulting in broad subsidence. This should limit convective development until the sea breeze begins to force isolated showers/tstms near the coast early in the afternoon. Some models depict an MCS associated with an upper shortwave moving through southern GA mid to late Thursday afternoon. A drier, more stable airmass will settle over the area on Friday. Deep westerly flow will suppress updrafts, minimizing chances for convection. Conditions will be slightly more favorable for convection along the Altamaha River in GA so we have a slight chance PoP in that area. Highs will be in the low 90s. Weak low pressure will move northeast through the area on Saturday. Lapse rates will improve and moderate instability will overspread the area from the south during the day. Scattered showers and tstms will be possible as diurnal heating occurs. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A strong upper ridge will build over the area for next week, bringing unseasonably warm temperatures to the area while minimizing convective potential. Monday through Wednesday high temps could reach the upper 90s to near 100F inland. Fortunately the dewpoints will mix down into the mid/upper 60s during the hottest hours, keeping heat indices generally less than 105F. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. A band of showers and possible tstms could approach the terminals from the west prior to daybreak Thursday, but confidence of this activity reaching this far east during the diurnal minimum is fairly low. VCSH and VCTS will be utilized 11-15z to account for this. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. Brief restrictions possible with afternoon showers/tstms through Sunday. && .MARINE... This Evening and Tonight: Outside a few potentially strong thunderstorms near the coast early this evening, winds/seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through the overnight period as the area remains between high pressure centered well off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and low pressure inland (potentially an approaching MCS advancing toward the Southeast United States). In general, south winds should range between 10-15 kt this evening, then increase to 15-20 kt overnight due a slight increase in the pressure gradient and low-lvl wind field late. Seas should average between 2-4 ft. Thursday through Monday: Conditions should remain below advisory levels through the middle of next week. Winds will briefly turn NE across the SC waters on Friday as high pressure builds from the north. Otherwise, S to SW flow will persist with speeds less than 15 kt and seas 4 ft or less. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
249 PM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Daytime temperatures continue to hover around the 100 degree-mark as the week finishes off. Weekend daytime temperatures expected to rise to their highest points and stay around the 105 degree mark into the beginning of next week. Breezy conditions are to be expected. Increasing moisture and convection may spark isolated and scattered storms in parts of New Mexico for Wednesday and Thursday evenings. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... Satellite currently shows an outflow pushing through the area with the boundary along the Rio Grande early this afternoon. Observations show surface dew points in the mid 50s behind the boundary. Easterly winds and surface moisture will continue to push through the area this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are are currently forming over the northern higher terrain (Gila Region and Sacramento Mtns). These storms will continue to grow, as temperatures rise to 5 to 10 degrees above normal this afternoon (heat supported by ~35C 850 mbs temperatures). An upper level high pressure continues to sit over the area, with light south and west winds aloft. Directional shear is present this afternoon, which could help storms organize and strengthen. High surface dew point depressions, combined with a fairly dry mid to upper level will make for damaging winds with these storms and minor hail where it can form. As storms from the mountains begin to die, outflows will rush through the lower elevations this evening and later tonight, keeping thunderstorm chances for the lower elevations around through midnight. The atmosphere should begin to stabilize after midnight, as east winds start to nocturnally surge. Gusty winds will be seen on the west slopes of the Franklins and Organs, as well as the plateau of southern Otero and Hudspeth counties. This push will surge 0.7-0.9 inches of PW all the way past the AZ/NM border tonight. East winds will start to weaken around sunrise Thursday. The ridge of high pressure aloft remains in place, so the influx of moisture will have no force to push it out of the area. This means a repeat of thunderstorm activity for Thursday afternoon as well. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but still around 5 degrees above normal. Convective temperatures will easily be reached in the mountains. The environment remains similar, with slightly more chances for precipitation to reach the ground. Outflow boundaries will engulf the lower elevations in the late afternoon and evening hours, creating gusty and dusty conditions. && .LONG TERM... Thursday evening looks to be quite active, relatively speaking, across the Borderland. Models suggesting outflow boundaries may linger across the area within a weakly unstable atmosphere (across the lowlands). The HRRR paints a particularly active picture as far as thunderstorm coverage goes. These scattered storms should not be particularly strong, but lightning and brief gusty winds will be possible. Thereafter, high pressure dominates Friday through the weekend with temperatures approaching and likely eclipsing the mid 100s across the lowlands. A heat advisory will likely be needed this weekend. Additionally, remaining modest moisture/instability will continue the threat for isolated thunderstorms, mainly across the higher terrain. Into the early portions of next week, high pressure will shift east as energy aloft moves into the Rockies. Consequently, west and southwest winds will increase into the breezy to mildly breezy category, with a likely break in much of the thunderstorm activity. However, there are hints of moisture moving both west and north around the west periphery of the high pressure, focusing on the Continental Divide. As a result, shower and thunderstorm activity during the middle to potentially later portions of next week will be possible, particularly west of the Rio Grande, but this will be monitored. Ensemble guidance suggests the highest PWAT airmass will focus into AZ, but we`ll have to see how much of that deliciously moist airmass we can obtain in western NM. Given moisture increases with southeast winds mid to late week, temperatures should decrease by a few degrees, from perhaps the low to mid 100s to around 100, or the upper 90s. && .AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE NE push have veered winds to 050-110 for KTCS. Westerly winds AOB 15kts for KELP/KDMN/KLRU with gusts up to 25 will continue through 00Z. Afternoon mountain convection will fill skies in the afternoon with cigs SCT080-100 and BKN200. There is a chance for VCTS for all sites after 22Z, but it depends on where storms develop through the day. As of now KTCS has the best chance for seeing VCTS/SH. Outflows from storms could bring BLDU and gusty winds to impacted terminals. Winds will shift NE/E for all terminals after 00Z. Gusty winds are possible during its passage, especially over far west TX. && .FIRE WEATHER... East winds will push more moisture into the region today, creating scattered afternoon thunderstorm chances for most of the area. Higher terrain areas east of the Rio Grande valley will see the best chances for the strongest thunderstorms and wetting rains at the surface today and tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorms will also build over the higher terrain of the Gila Region, but will have a harder time saturating the column. This means dry lightning threats, and gusty outflow winds will be seen with storms that do form west of the Rio Grande Valley. Outflow winds will rush through the lowlands this evening and tonight, until finally the atmosphere will stabilize after midnight. Moderately gusty east winds will surge west after midnight, with the strongest winds on the west slopes of the Franklins and Organs, as well as the plateau of southern Otero and Hudspeth counties. Winds will diminish around sunrise, with another round of thunderstorm chances Thursday and Friday afternoon. Temperatures will remain hot through early next week, with high temperatures reaching to 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The moisture will hang around through early next week under a ridge of high pressure, keeping overnight recoveries healthy. However, warm temperatures and high mixing heights in the afternoon will bring min RH values back down to below 15% almost every day. Critical fire weather conditions could return early next week, as models hint at the next upper level trough dipping down to the southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 101 73 103 / 10 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 68 94 69 97 / 20 0 0 0 Las Cruces 69 100 70 103 / 10 10 10 0 Alamogordo 65 98 67 101 / 20 20 10 0 Cloudcroft 50 75 54 78 / 30 60 20 20 Truth or Consequences 69 97 70 101 / 10 20 20 0 Silver City 66 91 67 95 / 0 30 20 0 Deming 67 99 66 103 / 0 10 10 0 Lordsburg 68 98 67 101 / 0 10 20 0 West El Paso Metro 73 100 74 103 / 10 10 20 0 Dell City 63 98 66 101 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 69 102 69 104 / 20 0 10 0 Loma Linda 68 93 69 96 / 20 10 10 0 Fabens 71 102 70 103 / 10 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 69 99 69 101 / 10 10 20 0 White Sands HQ 74 98 75 101 / 10 20 20 0 Jornada Range 67 97 68 101 / 20 20 20 0 Hatch 68 98 69 102 / 10 20 10 0 Columbus 71 99 70 102 / 10 10 10 0 Orogrande 69 99 69 101 / 10 10 10 0 Mayhill 54 84 58 88 / 30 50 10 10 Mescalero 53 85 57 89 / 30 50 20 10 Timberon 56 83 58 86 / 20 40 10 10 Winston 59 91 61 95 / 20 40 20 0 Hillsboro 66 94 69 98 / 10 30 20 0 Spaceport 66 96 67 101 / 20 20 20 0 Lake Roberts 59 92 59 96 / 10 40 10 10 Hurley 62 96 63 99 / 0 20 20 0 Cliff 53 101 54 104 / 0 20 10 0 Mule Creek 63 93 64 97 / 0 30 0 0 Faywood 64 94 66 98 / 10 20 10 0 Animas 67 99 65 101 / 10 20 10 0 Hachita 66 97 66 101 / 10 20 10 0 Antelope Wells 67 96 65 99 / 20 30 20 0 Cloverdale 66 93 65 95 / 20 30 20 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 31-Dhuyvetter/35-DeLizio/31
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
621 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Another day with clear skies, southerly winds, and hot temperatures, though very slightly moderated today and tomorrow relative to how we started the week and how we are expected to end it. Overnight/early morning storms near the Red River sent a strong outflow boundary south into Central TX, but it has gradually weakened upon approach and HRRR runs stall out the northerly wind shift this afternoon over Llano, Burnet, and Williamson Counties. Highs today should top out from 97-103 for most locations, and a Special Weather Statement remains in effect for the entire CWA to message heat safety. Tomorrow, a touch cooler, particularly across the Hill Country, with highs there in the mid to upper 90s except warmer for Llano/Burnet. Elsewhere, near 100 to about 103 again. Heat indices will top out around 104-106 for all but the Hill Country/Southern Edwards Plateau and another SPS will likely be issued by the overnight shift for many areas. As we`ve seen the past several nights, any dry air that is able to mix to the surface will quickly be replaced by high dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s overnight, leading to the development of low clouds for ~6 hours give or take in the late overnight/early morning hours. Record High (6/9) Forecast High Austin Bergstrom 99 (1948) 100 Austin Mabry 101 (2008) 100 San Antonio 104 (1910) 100 Del Rio 112 (1988) 101 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022 The heat continues this Friday into this weekend and next week. The subtropical high pressure system dominating the area centered across west Texas by Friday is forecast to move eastward over the weekend. By Saturday and Sunday, the high is forecast to stay overhead to produce the highest daily temperatures areawide. Maximum high temperatures are forecast to range from 100 to 102 degrees across elevated locations in the Hill Country with the rest of the area ranging from 103 to 107 degrees. It is likely to have Heat Advisories out for parts of South Central Texas this coming weekend into early next week. Hot and dry conditions persist through the upcoming work week with slightly cooler temperatures (upper 90s to 101 degrees)for Wednesday and Thursday. With this hot and dry weather pattern in place and little change in the next 7 days, the message to share is to take heat safety precaution and monitor trusted sources for information on this heat wave. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022 All terminals are VFR and will stay VFR through the evening. An outflow boundary has turned the winds to the northeast through east. Winds should shift back to the southeast later this evening. MVFR ceilings will develop overnight and last until late morning Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 100 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 101 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 72 99 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 101 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 100 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 101 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 101 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 101 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 103 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...KCW Long-Term...17 Aviation...05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
249 PM PDT Wed Jun 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS...A late season atmospheric river will impact portions of the Pacific Northwest late Thursday through Saturday with periods of rain and humid conditions. Exact rain amounts remain uncertain at this time. Cool and showery conditions are expected Sunday into early next week, but less humid. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Quiet weather will continue northwest OR and southwest WA through tonight as weak surface high pressure remains over the area. Changes are on the way though, as a late-season atmospheric river begins to impact portions of the region beginning tomorrow morning/afternoon. Prolonged moist southwesterly flow aloft will bring two separate rounds of rain to the area, which will be separated by a distinct break. The first round of rain will impact the area Thursday through Friday morning, mainly to the north of Eugene and heaviest over southwest WA. The second round of rain arrives sometime Friday evening or Friday night and continues into Saturday. IVT plume forecasts from the GEFS/EPS are still showing IVT values peaking around 1000 kg/ms with the first round of rain, which suggests a strong to extreme atmospheric river. That said, these extreme values are quite short-lived, and IVT values quickly decrease to 250-500 kg/ms on Saturday, which suggests a weak atmospheric river. PWAT values are still expected to be very high with the first round of rain, peaking at around 1.5-1.7 inches. PWAT values decrease a bit for the second round of rain, but not by very much. With the moisture-rich airmass in place, it will feel quite humid Thursday night through Friday night as surface dew point temperatures increase to 60-65 degrees. While there will clearly be abundant moisture, there does appear to be a significant lack of forcing to help realize all of this moisture in the form of heavy rain. This is true for both synoptic-scale forcing and frontogenetical mesoscale forcing, as both the GFS and the EURO show very little to no Q-vector convergence over the area with very little to no frontogenesis. Even orographic lift will be a bit limited compared to our typical atmospheric river events, as 850 mb winds look to top out at only 20-30 kts. The overall lack of forcing should limit the hourly rain rate potential and make it difficult for prolonged periods of heavy rain to occur, favoring a steady light to moderate rain instead. This is good news in regards to debris flow concerns over/near burn areas, as hourly rain rates look to peak at around 0.2-0.4 inches per hour according to the HRRR and 1km UWWRF; this is generally not high enough to produce debris flows or flash flooding in our area. Minor flooding in urban areas cannot be completely ruled out though, at least in low-lying areas with poor drainage. This will be especially true for southwest WA and the Portland metro, where forecast rain amounts are the highest aside from the mountains. Hydroplaning may also be an issue for motorists at times. How much rain will fall from the first round of rain? Well, it is still impossible to determine exact rain amounts as models and their ensembles are still showing a good deal of model spread. WPC QPF appears to be close in line with the NBM 50th percentile guidance, which seems like a reasonable outcome and gives the interior lowlands around 0.25-0.50 inches of rain (except 0.5-0.75 inches for the southwest WA lowlands and 0.1-0.20 inches for the Eugene area). Forecast rain amounts are around 0.5-1.0 inches along the coast, lowest from Florence to Newport and highest from Tillamook northward. Rain amounts are around 1-2 inches for the Cascades, except the Lane and Linn County Cascades which should see less than a quarter inch. How much rain will fall from the second round of rain late Friday into Saturday? Unfortunately it is still too soon to tell, as model spread increases even more with the second round of rain. Decided to stick with WPC guidance for this round as well, which gives the lowlands another 0.25-0.75 inches of rain, 1.0-2.5 inches of rain for the Cascades, and around 0.5-0.75 inches of rain for the Coast Range. It still appears the NBM 90th-95th percentile QPF guidance would need to verify for river flooding concerns to crop up, which means there is only a 5-10% chance that our area will see enough rain to result in at least some river flooding. While this is quite a small chance, we are still messaging it since river flooding would likely end up being high-impact if it were to occur. Precipitation should become more showery Saturday night, with rain shadowing likely over the Willamette Valley. -TK .LONG TERM...Sunday through Tuesday night...The deterministic GFS/EURO continue to show a cool upper level trough swinging through the Pacific Northwest Sunday morning and early afternoon, bringing another round of showers to the area with below normal temperatures. The NBM is suggesting highs only in the mid 60s over the lowlands, except upper 50s to around 60 along the coast. This is around 10 degrees below normal for mid June, at least for inland locations. The WPC`s cluster analysis depicts high confidence for below normal 500 mb heights over the region early next week, suggesting the cool and showery weather pattern will continue into Monday and Tuesday. The NBM is picking up on this with PoPs around 20-40 percent and high temperatures in the 60s. If you are hoping for hot, dry, summer-like weather, it looks like you will have to keep waiting for the foreseeable future. If you prefer the cool and wet onshore flow pattern, then you are in luck! -TK && .AVIATION...00z TAFs: As of 21z, Widespread VFR conditions across SW Washington and NW Oregon are expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Light W-NW winds this afternoon will become southerly by early Thursday morning as a front nears. The front will spread light rain to the north coast around 15Z Thursday. Visibilities and ceilings will likely lower to MVFR across the coastal and mountain areas of SW Washington and extreme NW Oregon Thursday afternoon and evening. The front will produce gusty south winds along the north coast Thursday afternoon and night where gusts up to 35 kt are possible. For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. A front will bring a chance of rain to KPDX Thursday evening and night. NBM 4.1 forecasts a 50 percent chance of ceilings being lower than 3000 feet at KPDX thursday night into Friday morning as the front moves through with a 10% chance of ceilings less than 1000 feet. The probabilities of having MVFR visibilities is less impressive with a 10 percent chance of visibility less than 5 miles and a 2 % chance of visibility less than a mile. ~TJ && .MARINE...South winds generally less than 10 kt tonight ahead of an approaching front. South winds will increase Thursday morning as the front nears with small craft advisory winds developing in the late morning. A brief period of gusty strong winds are expected late Thursday afternoon and evening with marginal gale force gusts possible across the northern waters (mostly north of Lincoln City) Thursday afternoon through the night. GEFS and NAEFS forecasts 10 to 20 percent chance that the winds will exceed 30 kt, but less than a 5 percent chance that the winds will exceed 34 kt. Despite the marginal nature of the gales, decided to upgrade the gale watch to a gale warning for the northern waters, especially since the expected wind intensity is atypical for this time of the year. Winds will be weaker in the southern waters (off Central Oregon), where a small craft advisory has been issued.Combined seas appear likely to exceed 10 ft for several hours Thursday evening into Thursday night as wind waves build. Another front is expected Friday into Saturday, but it is much weaker, and expect winds and seas to remain below small craft advisory criteria. Unseasonal high moisture content is available with these fronts, and expect tight temperature to dewpoint temperature gradients will lead to fog development near shore. NBM 4.1 forecasts a 55% chance that visibilities will be less than 5 miles at Buoy 46029 on Thursday afternoon and evening, with a 25% chance of visibilities less than 3 miles, and a 15% chance the visibility will be less than a mile. ~TJ && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Gale Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM PDT Thursday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 nm. && $$ Interact with us via social media:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
314 PM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Key Messages: 1) Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening, mainly over the southern Sangres/Raton Mesa/Las Animas County region 2) Severe storm potential increases along and east of the mountains on Thursday, with the strongest storms near the Kansas border Currently, pool of cooler/drier/more stable air has spread over much of southeastern Colorado today in the wake of overnight cold frontal passage and MCS, with cumulus field limited to mainly the southern Sangres and the swrn mts. For the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, most CAMs suggest isolated thunderstorms will evolve from the current shallow convective cloud field, with perhaps a couple stronger storms forming around La Veta Pass and then migrating e-se over Las Animas County before ending by late evening. HRRR looks most aggressive with convection, as it has slightly deeper instability farther east, while other models keep activity closer to the higher terrain. Severe chance looks fairly low given modest instability(CAPE 500-800 J/KG), and latest SWODY1 has shifted the marginal risk south into New Mexico. Activity dies by late evening, though will have to watch the far sern corner, as a few showers are possible late under the increasing low level jet. On Thursday, flow aloft increases slightly with weak upper wave migrating through the area. Dryline sharpens up on the plains, with a ribbon of 1500-3000 CAPE ahead of it near the KS border by afternoon, while 0-6km shear is in the 30-40 kt range to the east of I-25. SWODY2 slight risk catches the eastern 2 tiers of counties on the plains, which seems reasonable, with marginal back west to Interstate 25 to account for high-based/wind producing convection behind the dry line. Even ahead of the dry line, strong winds may be the most likely severe risk as low level flow stays s-sw, though any persistent storms may rotate enough to produce large hail. Models at this point keep convective coverage fairly isolated, so won`t go too high on pops yet. Max temps warm considerably versus Wed as downslope flow kicks in, and 90s will return to much of the plains by afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Key Messages: 1) Hot and dry through this weekend with near record temperatures in the San Luis Valley and triple digit highs on the plains. 2) Critical fire weather conditions return as early as Friday in the San Luis Valley. Thursday Night through Sunday.. GEFS and EPS are in good agreement with ridging building in aloft from Friday through the weekend. A very weak frontal passage early on Friday will cool us down slightly and keep highs in the upper 80s to low nineties on the plains, but we will likely maintain above average daytime highs throughout the weekend. Most of our plains look to hit triple digits on both Saturday and Sunday, and the San Luis Valley is forecasted to surpass their record high for 11 June on Saturday as well. Humidity values stay high enough to avoid fire weather headlines east of Interstate 25 all weekend, but we will likely hit Red Flag criteria on both Friday and Sunday afternoon in the San Luis Valley where humidity falls into the low teens by 1pm. We could see marginal fire weather concerns on Saturday there as well, but might not meet the 3 hour minimum thresholds, especially for humidity values. Monday through Wednesday.. Both the GEFS and EPS are showing troughing and strong southwesterly flow to start out the week, but timing and placement vary somewhat. The overall consensus is to keep the system rather north of us. This track will likely lead to a fairly widespread fire weather day for us in south central and southeastern Colorado on Monday, as any precipitation would be limited to our central mountains. We`ll see another day of critical to severe fire weather conditions, and the issuance of highlights will depend heavily on fuels status after recent appreciable precipitation. As the trough passes to our a north, it sends a cold front through Colorado late Monday and into Tuesday bringing with it some cooler temperatures and better chances for rain and thunderstorms for both Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022 VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Isolated tsra this afternoon into early evening will stay over/close to the higher terrain, and any impacts at the terminals should be limited to briefly gusty outflow winds as storms dissipate. On Thursday, slightly higher risk of storms at all sites, with periods of gusty/erratic outflows in the afternoon and evening. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...PETERSEN