Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/08/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1002 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 .UPDATE... Have allowed Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322 to expire at 10pm MDT. Isolated storms are still impacting east central NM and high-res models suggest this could persist through midnight. That said, it appears the risk for organized severe storms is diminishing but a few robust updrafts could support large hail. Localized damaging winds may also be possible. DPorter && .PREV DISCUSSION...619 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022... .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Isolated severe storms will continue to impact northeast NM though the evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threats, though a tornado is not out of the question. Otherwise, the main story will be another backdoor front pushing south and west through the plains tonight into Wednesday morning. Abundant low clouds will likely develop across the plains behind the front. KTCC will most likely impacted by MVFR cigs, though KLVS may be impacted as well. On Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across central NM. Storms may shift eastward with time, though areal coverage remains questionable, due to persistent low clouds and limited heating across the eastern plains. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022... .SYNOPSIS... A cooler and more moist environment will exist over the eastern plains in the near term, where chances for showers and thunderstorms will be focused through Thursday and into Friday and where a few strong to severe storms are possible each day. There is also potential for some locally heavy rainfall Wednesday, which may impact recent burn scars such as Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon and Cooks Peak. Low level moisture will slosh into the Rio Grande Valley toward the Continental Divide, where gusty and drier showers and storms are possible. High temperatures will warm to above normal Thursday and Friday. The heat will be turned up a notch over the weekend as near record high temperatures are likely Saturday through Monday across northern and central New Mexico while chances for rain dry up. Breezy conditions return Sunday and Monday with potential for critical fire weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDENSDAY NIGHT)... The atmosphere is destabilizing rapidly across much of eastern NM this afternoon behind a backdoor front where surface dewpoint temperatures are currently in the 50s to low 60s. The best coupling of shear and instability is across far northeast NM, where the SPC currently shows a slight risk for severe storms and a watch was just issued. The latest HRRR and HREF peg Colfax, Union and Harding Counties for storms later this afternoon/evening. Storms are forecast to move off into the TX/OK Panhandles later this evening and the backdoor front will progress back to the southwest aided by convective cold pools. The front is forecast to stall at the central mountain chain by mid day Wednesday, where convection will initiate and become well- developed given ample moisture and forcing. Any location along the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands could see locally heavy rainfall Wednesday afternoon given relatively slow storm motion and persistent easterly upslope flow, but the main concern is definitely the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon and Cook`s Peak burn scars where life threatening flash flooding with potential debris flows is possible. The front, combined with convective outflow, will push moisture west beyond the RGV late Wednesday and may result in storms across the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros, though those storms will be moisture-challenged and more likely to result in a lot of wind and little measurable rainfall. Gusty east canyon/gap winds into the RGV and upper Tularosa Valley are likely late Wednesday as well. The forecast for Wednesday night is more uncertain with regard to convection as the models are at odds with coverage and maintenance across eastern NM. LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... An upper ridge will be building over New Mexico Thursday and Friday before starting to break down Sunday and Monday. Thursday still appears fairly active with showers and storms stretched from the Gila region northeast into northeast New Mexico. As the upper high strengthens Friday, moisture will remain trapped under the high but activity overall will be less. Moisture may attempt to slosh back into eastern New Mexico Friday night but models aren`t in agreement on this and it doesn`t seem to have much impact by midday Saturday. However, the upper high may be positioned such that some moisture could sneak up from the south and this tap may persist Sunday. If there is any activity as a result it could be drier with gusty winds. By Monday breezy to windy conditions return. High temperatures Thursday and Friday recover to above normal values, while highs across the forecast area look to be near record values at many locales Saturday through Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... A backdoor front will bring moisture and chances for wetting storms west to the central mountain chain through Thursday with the potential for burn scar flooding and debris flows. The most sensitive period for burn scar flooding will be Wednesday afternoon/evening, when storms will be moving slowly and producing soaking rains. Meanwhile, western New Mexico will remain hot, mostly dry and unstable. An upper high will build up over the state beginning Thursday and lead to a drying/warming trend through the weekend with hot, dry and unstable conditions areawide. Daily rounds of storms are forecast from Thursday through the weekend, but with a gradually shrinking wetting footprint. The upper high will back off to the south Sunday into Monday as a west coast trough progresses across the Intermountain West and brings stronger westerlies into the region. Critical fire weather conditions are looking more likely for Monday and may continue into Tuesday of next week. 11 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE MVFR cigs holding on at KTCC through mid day behind a backdoor front, but should improve to VFR by 19Z latest. Iso/Sct storms will develop this afternoon/evening across northeast NM and may impact KLVS with strong/erratic wind gusts. Much lower probability at KTCC for storms and too low to include in TAF. The backdoor front will get reinforced overnight into Wednesday morning and result in more MVFR cigs at KTCC and possibly KLVS. Mountain obscurations are likely Wednesday morning along the central mountain chain. 11 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for the following zones... NMZ214-215. && $$ 46
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1054 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Key Messages: - Increasing rain potential tonight/early Wednesday, especially near/south of I-90 - Continued Below Normal Temperatures Into the Weekend - Warmer Next Week - Periodic Rain/Storm Chances Continue Tonight-Wednesday... Quasi-zonal flow aloft persists today with early afternoon water vapor imagery showing several embedded perturbations, including a weak wave approaching western MN and stronger shortwave trough progressing from the northern Rockies. A few showers have occurred today in association with enhanced mid-level moisture/modest frontogenesis, mainly west of the Mississippi River. Into this evening, some CAMs have indicated scattered showers and isolated storms spreading into southeast MN and northeast Iowa within a region of 700 mb warm advection. However, the higher rain chances look to arrive overnight as synoptic lift/mid-level deformation increases ahead of the approaching stronger shortwave trough. The I-90 corridor and to the south is most favored for rain based on trends in the high-res CAMs. A focused corridor of 1/2-1" rain amounts is possible with the 07.12Z HREF suggesting some potential for localized 1-2+" amounts within the band. Overall, however, given only modest MUCAPE up to around 500 J/kg, relatively weak moisture transport associated with a 30 kt low-level jet, and lack of deep warm cloud depths, do not anticipate much of a widespread heavy rain threat. Severe storms are also not expected within the weak instability environment. The more organized showers/storms will move east Wednesday morning in conjunction with the shortwave trough. Additional diurnal development of isolated to scattered showers/storms is possible as a weak upper trough approaches later in the day with potential for 500 J/kg of surface or mixed layer CAPE to develop per the HREF/RAP. Another cool day is in store for with highs in the 60s to low 70s, coolest where clouds/rain likely linger later into the day, especially east. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday... Wednesday night...a trailing shortwave in the northwest flow aloft may generate isolated showers. There is forecast to be around 300 J/kg SBCAPE, so cannot rule out a rumble of thunder. Thursday is looking shortwaves. Southwest 850mb flow increases Thursday night into Friday with a couple shortwave troughs moving through the upper level flow between the 500mb ridge over the Rockies and the closed low over Hudson Bay. Instability appears weak, however low level lapse rates steepen to 6.5 to 7.5 deg C/km, so cannot rule out thunder again in the vicinity of the 850/700mb low/warm advection. The rain for Friday will depend on the storm track and how focused the frontogenesis is. The storm track has been trending a little south. For now we have our higher precipitations chances over the southern part of the forecast area. Saturday through Monday, the mid- tropospheric ridge builds eastward. We continue to see periodic shower/thunderstorm chances with "ridge riders". Temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s Saturday and Sunday warming into the 70s and 80s Monday. The NAEFS temperatures anomalies bring warmer temperatures with the ridge for Tuesday with 2.0 to 2.5 standard deviations at 1000mb into the region. Above normal highs are forecast in the upper 70s to upper 80s for Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Plenty of convection this evening across Nebraska and Iowa along and north of a stalled boundary over Missouri. The RAP has been consistent this evening showing a weak area of low pressure forming on the north side of this convection over western Iowa in response to an incoming short wave trough and then tracking east into Illinois overnight. Some weak frontogenesis on the north side of the low along with lift from the wave, should cause another band of mainly showers to develop along and south of the Interstate 90 corridor. The CAMS suggest that by the time this activity gets going it has a chance of being southeast of KRST but developing over KLSE. Based on this idea, have gone back to just a VCSH at KRST with a period of showers for KLSE with just a minor visibility reduction and VFR ceilings for both sites. Showers move east early Wednesday morning with the clouds expected to scatter out in the mid to late afternoon. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Zapotocny AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1020 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure quickly builds into the area tonight before low pressure tracks across the northern Ohio Valley Wednesday night. High pressure returns for Thursday and Thursday night before another weak wave of low pressure moves across the Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in for the second half of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Minimal changes made to forecast, though adjusted timing for shower and thunderstorms for Wednesday night to account for latest model guidance. The 00Z HRRR has precipitation moving across the a touch earlier and out of the area a bit faster. All model guidance has some amount of fog developing tonight so kept that in the forecast. A few models are suggesting the development of a large area of dense fog Previous Discussion... Cold front continuing to sag through...currently extending from Edinboro, PA into Ohio near Burton, Strongsville, New London, Bucyrus and Bellefontaine. A couple broken bands of showers/storms are evolving along and just ahead of this front. Rain chances will quickly end as the front sweeps out of our area through the next few hours. No severe weather yet with any of these storms...40-50 knots of effective deep-layer shear remains in place, along with some mid-level dry air and modest DCAPE of 500-800 J/KG ahead of the front. However, skinny and limited CAPE profiles (normalized CAPE values of less than 0.1, MLCAPE values of around 500 J/KG, low-level lapse rates of 7C/km or less, and mid-level lapse rates of 5.5-6.0C/km) have prevented any storms from becoming strong enough to take advantage of the stronger shear and drier air aloft. So, will continue to monitor for a stray stronger wind gust or small hail with a stronger core, but so far nothing has been concerning. Wooster and Akron/Canton have gusted to around 30 MPH with these storms...storms may intensify just a bit more over the next couple of hours before exiting. POPs quickly exit this evening and clouds will largely clear out as well. With high pressure moving overhead calming the winds and allowing for some radiational cooling, some fog will be possible across inland locales tonight, especially from the central highlands points east. Have some fog in the grids in this area, and future shifts will have to monitor if fog develops and how dense it tries to get. Much of the day Wednesday will be dry...a potent little shortwave trough swings across the southern Great Lakes later Wednesday into Wednesday night, exiting into Thursday. This shortwave has trended more amplified on recent model runs and is now shown to take on a negative trend as it moves by just to our has also trended a bit slower as a result. Models show a deepening low pressure moving from the northern Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The more amplified solution brings rain in slower Wednesday, keeping most of the day dry also brings categorical rain chances into our entire CWA Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, albeit briefly as the system exits quickly towards early Thursday. The system is progressive, but the sharper shortwave taking on a negative tilt will lead to increasing upper-level divergence and subsequent mass response in the low-mid levels. This may wring out rain efficiently for a brief period with PWATs increasing to over 1.50" in the warm sector over the Ohio Valley. If convective rates can get into our southern counties Wednesday night, a quick 1-2" of rain may occur...the low-levels appear too stable for a severe threat though. Lows tonight mainly in the 50s, perhaps a couple of upper 40s in colder spots in interior PA. Highs on Wednesday in the 70s, coolest along the lakeshore. Lows Wednesday night near or a bit milder than 60. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The main theme of the day 3 and beyond forecast is the general ridge/trough pattern west to east across the CONUS, keeping the Great Lakes region on the cool and slightly unsettled side. Thursday finds the CWA in the wake of the cold front. The mass fields are not particularly strong with the pressure systems moving in and out leading to any events being weakly forced, so the stability of the surface high moving in will possibly be offset by the steep lapse rates generated by the cool pool aloft, setting off isolated showers. As a result, it will be difficult to get extended POP free periods. Next low pressure system/upper trough axis moves in late Friday/Friday night. Short term max temperatures in the 70s, 50s at night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak waves aloft continue to drop in from the northwest flow aloft Saturday and Sunday despite weak surface high pressure. Meanwhile, the upper ridge over the southern plains will shift eastward and continue to build, making for a warmer pattern trying to make headway for the end of the long term forecast period. This is reflected in the temperature increases. A slow moving warm front oriented northwest to southeast and moving west to east into northern Ohio will renew the chances for convection, particularly in the afternoon. 80s expected by early next week with upper 70s hanging on in NW PA. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... The main cold front has now passed to the southeast, leaving an MVFR cloud deck in its wake. This cloud deck should dissipate over the next 1-3 hours, leaving a period of MVFR clouds at KCLE, KCAK, and KYNG. Mostly clear skies will ensue once clouds clear out. Due to recent rainfall, moisture content will remain high through the night. This, combined with radiational cooling overnight, should lead to fog development overnight through early Wednesday morning. Areas that received rain Tuesday afternoon have the greatest chance for IFR visibility, so sites such as KYNG and KCAK will have the greatest chance for IFR to VLIFR visibility with fog. It will also be possible at KMFD, KCLE, and KERI. Any fog that develops overnight should dissipate shortly after sunrise Wednesday morning, leaving VFR conditions for much of the daylight hours on Wednesday. By Wednesday evening, showers and perhaps embedded thunderstorms approached from the west, near KTOL and KFDY towards the end of the TAF period and near KCLE later Wednesday night. Lower ceilings and visibilities will accompany these showers. Outlook...Non VFR may return Wed evening/night in scattered showers/thunderstorms. Periods of non-VFR possible with showers/thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... Variable wind directions in the next 24 hours, but a window of increasing northeasterly winds expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, becoming northerly as a low pressure system passing west to east to the south of the lake strengthens. Northwesterly flow Thursday becomes southwesterly Thursday night. With the Wednesday/Wednesday night northerly winds, could get 3-4 foot waves over the central/western basin of the lake for a few hours. No SCA yet, but may need one for a short duration because of this stronger flow expected. Otherwise, the bulk of the forecast is 2 foot or less conditions through the weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Saunders/Sullivan SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
630 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 624 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Severe weather threat has ended across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska this evening with most of the storms pushing into far eastern Colorado and central Nebraska at this hour. Expect cooler temperatures and quiet conditions for tonight with some patchy fog possible across western Nebraska due to recent rain and hail near Alliance and Sidney. Added fog to the forecast and may need to extend the fog coverage further west depending on wind direction and boundary layer cooling. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 215 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Forecast concerns are for severe thunderstorms today through early this evening. Currently...Surface boundary looks to be shifting east early this afternoon. Dewpoints at 40 degrees here at Cheyenne...basically along the Interstate 25 Corridor to Douglas. East of this front...low to mid 50s dewpoint being observed in the Nebraska Panhandle. Latest EMC RAP guidance from SPC Mesoanalysis Page showing SBCAPE 1500-1800J/KG...with 0-6km shear values around 70kts. Already getting some pretty strong storms on our radar in two locations. Across Converse and Niobrara Counties...several strong to potentially severe storms are being observed. South across Scottsbluff County and points south...storms are beginning to develop and moving east. Upper shortwave seen on IR imagery near Casper currently...continues to push east and will aid in thunderstorm development through the afternoon. For the rest of the afternoon...storms will continue to develop ahead of that boundary as CAPE and shear values remain quite high. Discrete storms look to bow out once the storms move out to near Alliance and Sidney late this afternoon. HRRR forecasts an early show...with storms ending after 1900 or so tonight. Wednesday looks dry as upper shortwave that is moving through our area now tracks into eastern Nebraska. Do have another upper vort max moving through the upper ridge Wednesday afternoon...but it is looking to track into northeast Wyoming. .LONG TERM...(Friday through next Tuesday) Weather Highlights: 1) Rapid warming Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures could climb into the 90s Saturday for eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Temperatures on Sunday could climb into the upper 90s in the Nebraska Panhandle with upper 80s across eastern Wyoming. 2) Thunderstorm chances return Sunday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms lingering into next week. 3) A storm system will push a cold front through the area Monday night, which will cool temperatures down on Tuesday. Overview: The long term forecast continues to support a rapid warm- up occurring across central and eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Seasonal temperatures will be quickly replaced by 15-20F above normal high temperatures, just in time for the weekend. Just how hot is it going to get? Latest forecast update has continued to trend warmer as the NBM is now showing a high temperature of 90F for Cheyenne on Saturday with widespread 90s across eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. The record high temperature for June 11 (Saturday) for Cheyenne is 92F set back in 2013. Temperatures will remain well above normal on Sunday, but could trend slightly cooler as afternoon showers and thunderstorms and a shift in the flow aloft will contribute to the slightly cooler temperatures, but temperatures across the southern Nebraska Panhandle could push into the mid to upper 90s! As mentioned, a return to afternoon showers and thunderstorms is possible come Sunday afternoon, with another round of thunderstorms possible again on Monday. Some of the storms on Monday could become strong to severe, and will bare monitoring over the next few days. Discussion: Progressive zonal flow with embedded shortwaves will transition to a more amplified ridging patter as an area of high pressure builds across the Intermountain West and shifts east toward the Front Range. Associated with this ridge, a strengthening thermal ridge expands and moves into SE Wyoming by Friday. The bulk of the warmest air will lag behind but temperatures should easily eclipse 80F for most everyone on Friday. By Saturday, models are in good agreement in shifting this thermal ridge across the Front Range with H7 temperatures surging into the 15-20C range Saturday afternoon, with full sun, temperatures will rapidly climb for areas east of the Laramie Range and in the Nebraska Panhandle. By Sunday, most models suggest a breakdown of the ridge axis allowing for a more west to northwest flow aloft to develop. Moisture in the lower level will begin to increase and should be enough to initiate some diurnal convection Sunday afternoon. Cloud debris and the cooler NW flow aloft should be enough to keep temperatures from warming too much Sunday afternoon, but outside these areas, temperatures could sore into the mid to upper 90s, especially across the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Heading into Monday, the ridge shift east allowing for the next storm system to dive south across Montana and move east through Wyoming. At the surface a cold front will move through the region Monday night. With a warm, and unstable airmass ahead of the frontal boundary and with better dynamics aloft, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms may develop in the warm sector, ahead of the frontal boundary Monday afternoon. These storms could become strong to severe. As the front moves through, CAA will spill into north central Wyoming and spread south and east. Some breezy conditions may accompany this front and much cooler temperatures are expected on Tuesday, but temperatures will be in the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 523 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 VFR, except for MVFR at Sidney from 07Z to 14Z. Wind gusts to 33 knots at all terminals until 02Z, then to 25 knots at Wyoming terminals until 06Z, then to 24 knots at Wyoming terminals after 15Z Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Cold front/dry line...currently located along the Laramie Range is pushing east this afternoon. It will kick off showers and thunderstorms through the late afternoon and early evening. Storms east of this line likely to be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 7PM this evening. Drier and warmer weather for Wednesday into the end of the week. Fuels are fire weather concerns are minimal. Still looking at very dry afternoon humidity across Carbon and Albany Counties...but with these green concerns should be kept at bay. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...TJT SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...AW AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1022 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 ...Updated Mesoscale... .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 1022 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Complicated thunderstorm evolution continues. Several supercells have produced large hail across the southwest zones over the past 2 hours, and these are expected to move southeast and weaken over the next 1 hour. A large MCS northeast of Hill City to southern Nebraska is moving southeast. This complex, or at least the outflow from it, is entering Trego/Ellis counties at 1010 pm, but indications are the worst of this line will pass northeast of Hays. The future evolution through the night is the primary concern. A new thunderstorm has reached severe limits near Goodland. 00z ARW and various other models develop this convection extensively through 5 am Wednesday, with an extensive squall line possible as the triggering cold front arrives from the north. Uncertainly remains how extensive this line will be, but mesoanalysis shows MU CAPE holding near 2000 J/kg and mcs maintenance near 90%. With the front acting as a trigger and the parent shortwave arriving, the potential for a large scale MCS remains, between the SW KS supercells and the ongoing northern Kansas MCS. Severe thunderstorm watch #326 has been issued for much of SW KS through 5 am Wednesday for this expected evolution. && .UPDATE... Issued at 751 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Updated grids to include large hail/damaging winds wording across the northwest zones for severe thunderstorm watch #323 through midnight. Radar imagery shows three powerful supercells slowly progressing through eastern Colorado, with a history of very large hail and damaging winds. Various CAMs align with pattern recognition supporting a large MCS to develop from these storms, and impact SW KS mainly after midnight. Through midnight, large hail will remain a threat north and west of Dodge City. After midnight, risks will transition to damaging wind, possibly widespread and significant with gusts as high as 75 mph. Latest HRRR iterations follow this thinking, with the MCS arriving north midnight to 1am, then reaching central zones around 3-4 am Wednesday. Increased pops after midnight, and included heavy rain/damaging wind wording in more of the zones overnight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Afternoon cumulus were developing across southwest and north central Kansas as of 17z. This related well with an area of enhanced deep moisture convergence from the SPC meso Analysis. Models appear to be in fairly good agreement with this area of forcing moving northeast through the day as 700mb temperatures warm. This should limit the potential for any isolated storms late day across southwest Kansas but an isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out across north central Kansas between 4pm and 8pm. The probability of this is very low but if a storm develops it may be capable of producing large hail. The best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected towards sunset across western Kansas as developing storms over Colorado spread east. Given the 0-6km shear and mid level lapse rates early tonight these storms will be capable of producing large hail greater than 2 along with gusty winds. Widespread heavy rainfall overnight will be likely across north central Kansas as an upper level trough moves from southeast Wyoming into north central Kansas given the enhanced lift ahead of this upper wave plus the higher precipitable water values along with the moisture transport in the 850mb to 700mb layer. Given the heavy rainfall potential near the I-70 corridor and the rainfall that has occurred over the past several days will go ahead and issue a flood watch for Ellis, Trego and Rush counties. Along with the torrential rainfall being possible These storms will also be capable of producing strong gusty winds. Thunderstorms will taper off from north to south early Wednesday morning as a cold front moves south into Oklahoma. This cold and a cold front will become nearly stationary across extreme southeast Colorado, the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma during the day as a 500mb vort lobe moves out of New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle. This may result in a few late day storms near and south of the Oklahoma border given the forecast location of this surface boundary along with the moisture and lift developing late day north of this boundary late day/early evening. An isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorm is not out of the question Wednesday evening but the better opportunity for severe weather will occur south of the Oklahoma border. Temperatures on Wednesday will be a little cooler compared to what we are having this Tuesday afternoon. HIghs are currently expected to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Models appear to be in good agreement today with an upper level wave moving through an upper level ridge that will be building east across the Rockies on Thursday. This upper level wave is forecast to move out of Wyoming and into northern Kansas. Also on Thursday a surface cold front will be moving south into northern Kansas and given the cooler mid level temperatures being present across north central Kansas along with late day heating and forcing along this approaching cold front the chance for thunderstorms will be on the increase early Thursday night as the upper level trough approaches. Still some subtle disagreements on track and location of the surface features Thursday evening but even taking this into account it appears the best chance for evening convection will be north of a Garden City to Dodge city line with the highest probability being along the I-70 corridor. Precipitable water values in this area range between 1 to 1.5 inches so another round of heavy rainfall is expected with these storms. 0-6km shear and mid level lapse rates support the potential for hail larger than 2. Strong damaging winds will also be possible as these storms track southeast early Thursday night. Prior to the onset of this severe weather potential event late Thursday there will be a chance from some scattered elevated thunderstorms early Thursday morning near and northeast of a eastward moving elevated mixed layer based on the 850mb warm air advection and 850mb-700mb moisture transport. These storms are not expected to be severe but could produce some small hail along with brief heavy rainfall. On Friday the cold front will move into Oklahoma as the upper level trough continues to track into the southeast United States during the day. Cooler 850mb temperatures will be present across southwest Kansas during the day which will result in keeping afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s. These 80 degree highs on Friday will give way to highs in the 90s over the weekend as westerly downslope flow improves and 850mb to 700mb temperatures warm by 3-5C each dayespecially west of highway 283. On Monday the potential exists for highs to be near 100. Over the weekend several upper level waves are still forecast to move through the upper ridge that will be building eastward out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains. Warm mid level temperature over western Kansas will significantly limit the thunderstorm potential this weekend/early next week as any of the subtle waves pass. As the upper ridge moves east an upper level trough will exit the eastern Pacific and move into the western California and the Pacific Northwest. An upper level trough will approach western Kansas towards mid week and as it approaches from the west there will be an increase chance for thunderstorms for western Kansas. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 453 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 An active TAF period upcoming, with convective impacts, a cold frontal passage, and post-frontal stratus expected. Convection across eastern Colorado as of 2130z is expected to congeal into another mesoscale convective system (MCS), arriving near the CO/KS border around 00z Wed. Other storms in western Nebraska will also congeal into another MCS, reaching the northern zones near HYS overnight. Uncertainty remains on exact evolution and convective timing, but using the ARW as a guide, included TEMPO groups in the 00z TAFs for expected convective impacts (03-07z Wed). Amendments in timing are likely per radar/satellite trends overnight. Also tonight a cold front will pass, clearing the airports by 12z Wed. A north wind shift will result, with gusts to near 25 kts. Good agreement from short term models that post frontal stratus will spread through SW KS, with MVFR or even IFR ceilings likely by 12z Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 59 79 59 85 / 80 10 10 20 GCK 60 78 59 87 / 70 10 10 20 EHA 60 78 61 91 / 70 20 20 10 LBL 61 79 61 89 / 70 10 20 10 HYS 59 78 57 82 / 70 10 10 30 P28 65 81 61 82 / 70 10 0 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ030-031-046. && $$ MESOSCALE...Turner UPDATE...Turner SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
719 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Bottom Line Up Front: Two rounds of severe weather potential, one tonight and another Thursday night. Main threats appear to be severe level winds and flooding potential. Repeated nocturnal convection over the past few nights has kept the area rather wet with soils completely saturated over most of the CWA. There is also a persistent trough line stretched over the western portions of the CWA. The NAM/GFS ensembles are indicating this will provide the needed forcing to allow thunderstorms to develop once again this afternoon. Mid and upper level shear is rather good and very supporting of a thunderstorm complex developing to the north and west of the CWA then moving into the CWA this evening and overnight. Shear profiles are more parallel strongly supporting MCS with the main threat being high winds. Winds up to 80 mph are possible, especially along the northern tier of the CWA. South Central and Southeast Kansas are also at risk for severe weather but the threat here looks a little more isolated than scattered. One inch hail and 60 mph winds appear to be the more likely threat in South Central Kansas tonight. Given the current conditions of the soils in the area, flooding again appears likely (see hydro section for more details). Start time looks to be closer to 8-10PM this evening and continuing into the overnight hours. Wednesday morning, the complex of thunderstorms will be pushing off to the east and south and high pressure will be building into the CWA. The skies will remain clear for Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night for a change. Winds will be northerly allowing some drier air to move into the region. Temperatures will remain below normal as a result leaving a rather nice day. Wednesday night and into the Thursday, the winds will kick back around to the south allowing moisture transport to return to the region. There will be a couple of opportunities convection with the first likely during the morning Thursday. The GFS and NAM ensembles are showing increasing instability during the morning with CAPE values approaching 2000 J/Kg and some isentropic upglide as well. This lends to a round of weak convection over the western areas of the CWA during the morning and early afternoon. By the afternoon and into the evening, moisture transport will be at its maximum and a weak trough will be pushing into the region. Mid and upper level winds are very conducive convection. Severe weather appears likely with this activity. Given the orientation of the upper levels and the low level flow, a wide spread severe weather event appears likely at this time. Future models runs are still required to further fine tune the locations and timing of this event. The biggest change for this event is the ensembles are extending the duration. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles push the thunder into Friday morning with the rain ending by mid morning. The GEM on the other hand extends the event into the late morning and possibly the early afternoon. The GEM is also much wetter than the ECMWF/GFS families. Considering this discrepancy, leaned toward the ECMWF/GFS solution. Temperatures for Thursday and Friday look to remain a little below normal for this time of year due to the lingering cloud cover and chances for convection. Metzger .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 The extended range looks to fairly quiet for a change as ridging sets in. Some areas to the north may see some convection which could stray into the CWA Saturday evening and Sunday morning but this is considered a slight chance at best. Temperatures for weekend also look to remain in check and a little below normal. Monday and Tuesday, ridging will continue to build into the region and allow temperatures to climb to more summer like levels. Mid 90s are a good possibility in the western areas of the CWA. Tuesday night and into Wednesday, the ECMWF/GFS/GEM ensembles are indicating the approach of another weather system into the region. Timing between the three ensemble families is not in agreement at this time so confidence is low on the potential for this evening. Metzger && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 712 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 The main aviation hazards will be thunderstorm potential with heavy rainfall and gusty wind tonight. Scattered strong to severe storms will continue to propagate east-southeastward off of the High Plains this evening, with other storms forming along a stationary front extending from far northwestern Kansas across southeastern Nebraska. The storms are expected to merge into a complex across central Kansas late this evening into the overnight hours, with southeastward propagation into the early morning hours. Our highest confidence for TSRA with gusty winds is at the RSL, GBD and SLN terminals, however we also introduced a TEMPO TSRA group for the HUT, ICT and CNU terminals for late tonight. The complex of storms should clear out of southeastern KS by daybreak. Northerly winds and clearing skies are expected behind this storm activity for Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Tonight, another round of thunderstorms, some of them severe with very heavy rain will be moving through the region. Given that most areas of the CWA already have saturated soils, it will not take much rain for flooding to become an issue once again. The NAM and GFS model ensembles as well as the HRRR and HREF are indicating this event will be more progressive and will likely keep the length of time of the event to a minimum. As mentioned above, the saturated condition of the soils in the CWA and expected timing of this event, the main flood threat appears to be river and flash. Areal flooding is also a possibility but flash flooding may be a more likely type of flooding this time around. Metzger && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 65 80 61 81 / 60 10 0 20 Hutchinson 63 79 59 81 / 70 10 0 20 Newton 64 79 59 80 / 70 10 0 20 ElDorado 65 79 59 79 / 60 10 0 20 Winfield-KWLD 66 81 61 80 / 70 10 0 20 Russell 60 79 57 82 / 70 10 0 40 Great Bend 61 79 59 81 / 60 10 0 30 Salina 63 81 59 82 / 70 0 0 30 McPherson 62 79 59 80 / 70 0 0 30 Coffeyville 67 82 60 81 / 70 50 0 10 Chanute 67 81 60 80 / 70 40 0 10 Iola 66 80 59 80 / 60 30 0 10 Parsons-KPPF 67 81 61 81 / 70 40 0 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELM LONG TERM...ELM AVIATION...JMC HYDROLOGY...ELM
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1100 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2022 Just a quick update to the grids mainly to fine tune the PoPs and QPF through the rest of the night per the latest CAMs and radar trends. Did also include the current obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with the freshening of the ZFP and SAFs. UPDATE Issued at 930 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2022 01Z sfc analysis shows a weak pressure pattern through Kentucky as low pressure is approaching from the west and slightly higher pressure is noted to the east of the state. In this environment a cluster of showers and storms are crawling through the Cumberland valley bringing plenty of lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain. Look for these to drift northeast and gradually diminish into the late evening and likely stay just progressive enough to preclude hydro issues, but the training potential will need to be watched. Otherwise, under partly cloudy skies temperatures are mainly in the mid 70s, through probably in the upper 60s where the storms have hit. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are elevated in the mid and upper 60s making for a moist column of air contributing to the potential for heavy rains from any storms. Outside of the convection, winds are light and variable - in line with the weak pressure pattern in place. Have updated the forecast to include the latest radar obs and CAMs trends for the PoPs/QPF as well as the current obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 435 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2022 Late this afternoon, an upper level low was centered over northern Ontario to the south of Hudson Bay with an upper level ridge extending across portions of the Western Conus. Westerly rather zonal flow was in place from the Rockies east to the Appalachians with a few generally weak disturbances moving from the Plains to the MS Valley to the OH Valley and Appalachians. Further upstream, a shortwave trough was moving across the Dakotas/northern Plains. At the sfc, an area of low pressure was centered north of Lake Erie with a wavy nearly stationary front extending southwest to the OH Valley and then west into the Plains and then north to the Lee of the Rockies. Cloud cover for much of the day has been quite extensive following overnight and morning showers. Cumulus that has develop has generally been quite shallow though some moderate cu and showers have developed near the TN and VA borders. Any updrafts appear to be struggling to climb to much of a vertical extent as mesoanalysis indicates that mid level lapse rates are only around 5 C/km despite low level lapse rates of 7 C/km or better and MLCAPE of 100 J/kg or higher across the southern two thirds of the area. The showers that have developed a bit more vertical depth have occurred near the TN border where MLCAPE is about 1500 J/kg. These weaker midlevel lapse rates and lower end CAPE values are unable to take advantage of effective shear of 30KT or better. This evening and tonight, a weak shortwave trough is expected to cross the OH Valley while the more substantial shortwave trough in the northern Plains digs toward the mid MS Valley. Downstream of this at the sfc, the nearly stationary front currently north of the OH River should sag a bit toward the OH River and possibly into the far northern CWA. However, low pressure in advance of the upstream shortwave should track into the mid MS Valley/portions of the midwest tonight. This shortwave trough should track into the Southern Great Lakes to OH Valley region late Wed and across the OH Valley Wed evening into Wed night. The sfc low meanwhile should track north of the region with the area getting into the warm sector late tonight and especially Wed as the boundary lifts north into OH as a warm front. The passing shortwave trough this evening and into tonight along with the frontal zone sagging into the region should lead to a bit of an increase in coverage of convection as compared to the present coverage. Depending on where the front stalls and the coverage of evening or overnight convection, some fog development or stratus build down fog will be possible as a good portion of the guidance suggests. Chances for convection will continue into the day on Wednesday, with perhaps a morning to early afternoon area of showers and storms lifting north across the area in the warm sector. This may be followed by late afternoon to evening uptick as the shortwave trough near the OH Valley and the cold front trailing from the sfc low to pass north of the area nears. Model variability exists with the details with this. Assuming cloud cover is not too extensive to impede heating, MLCAPE could climb to modest levels in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with bulk and effective shear on the order of 30 to 35KT toward 0Z or 8 PM EDT on Wednesday evening. Forecast soundings from the RAP show deep, but rather skinny CAPE profiles with limited amounts of CAPE in the -10C to -30C layer. Seasonably high PWs and low level lapse rates near 7 C/km suggest strong to locally damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours would be a larger threat than large hail. 12Z HREF updraft helicity probs are generally greatest in the north nearer to the frontal zone and stronger winds aloft/shear and it would appear that the north and perhaps far west would have a higher chances for strong to severe storms as opposed to the southeast where convection near cold front would likely arrive after dark. The HWO has been updated to highlight the potential for strong to perhaps locally damaging wind gusts along with potential for locally heavy rain on Wednesday. Temperatures will be seasonably mild through the period, a few degrees above normal tonight and on Wednesday with cooler air arriving on Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 331 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2022 The primary player in the extended will be an area of low pressure, and its attendant surface boundaries, which will move across the eastern third of the CONUS Friday, Friday night, and Saturday. This system will bring a good chance of showers and storms to eastern Kentucky, especially Friday evening and night, when an area of surface low pressure moves through the lower Ohio Valleys. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible at times. Another weather system will be departing the area early Thursday, so we may a few showers or storms may be ongoing in our far eastern counties Thursday morning, before things dry out for a bit. A ridge of high pressure is then forecast to settle over the area Thursday and Thursday night, and will bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern KY. Once the main weather system exits the area Saturday evening, we should see an extended period of dry weather that will last into the beginning of the new work week, as another ridge of high pressure moves in. Temperatures will be generally below normal the first days of the extended, as clouds, precip, and some cooler air persist across the area. By Sunday and Monday, however, after a period of dry weather, we should see temperatures returning to normal or above normal values around eastern KY. Nightly lows are expected to fall into the 50s most of the period, with a strong warming trend forecast going into next week, with lows in the 60s on tap. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2022 Aside from some storms sneaking into the southern portions of the forecast area out of north central, Tennessee, most locations were dry to start the 00Z TAF cycle. A nearby cold front will lead to mid and high clouds passing across the area much of the time, with low clouds and isolated convection anticipated, as well. Coverage of convection appears fairly low for the first 6 hours of the period with better chances late tonight and into the day on Wednesday as a low pressure possible MCV system tracks into the OH Valley. Convection will likely lead to brief MVFR or IFR at any point in time as it passes. Model blend guidance and LAV guidance still suggest the potential for low clouds and/or fog later tonight for most locations including the TAF sites. Some MVFR to IFR vis and or ceilings will be possible with this and have generally kept the downward trend from the previous forecast and some guidance still suggests visibilities or ceilings at or below airport mins are a possibility. Conditions improve all locations by late morning on Wednesday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JP/GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1034 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...An upper level ridge of high pressure centered over central and southern portions of Texas will continue to nose eastward across the north central Gulf Coast region and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday afternoon. A series of shortwave troughs embedded within the west/northwest flow aloft will translate E-SE across northern portions of MS/AL through Wednesday. These features will result in the development of convective complexes that will especially impact northern portions of MS and central/northern AL late tonight/early Wednesday morning and likely again Wednesday afternoon and evening. The bulk of short range guidance that is available as of this writing continues to keep the majority of our forecast area under the influence of subsidence associated with the upper level ridge axis that will extend eastward across central and southern portions of the CWA through Wednesday afternoon. The exception will be the far northern and northeastern portion of our forecast area where weak shortwave impulses embedded within the northwest flow aloft and perhaps remnant convective outflows associated with the thunderstorm complexes to our north could interact with available moisture and instability to aid in the development of isolated to scattered convective development, especially by Wednesday afternoon and evening. The atmosphere could become quite unstable late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday over the vicinity of interior south central AL (vicinity of Choctaw, Clarke, Wilcox, Monroe, Butler, Crenshaw counties), where the latest RAP shows 2500-3500 J/KG of available afternoon MLCAPE. Other guidance, including the NAM12 keeps the stronger instability just north of our area. Some of the CAMs show isolated to scattered storms clipping these counties late Wednesday afternoon/early Wednesday evening, and if so could bring a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail given the strong instability, steep low level lapse rates, and DCAPE values up to 800-1000 J/KG. There is some uncertainty on the evolution of convective placement/ storm chances Wednesday night into Thursday. Northwest flow aloft takes hold over most of the area during this time as the upper ridge axis retrogrades westward. Shortwave impulses embedded within the northwest flow pattern may translate into our area by Wednesday night and potentially into Thursday, while a weak frontal boundary also possibly sinks southward into our area. These features will combine with rich moisture over the area to potentially bring an increased chance of storms Wednesday night/Thursday, but will let the next shift take a closer look at the newer guidance and collaborate potential changes to the POP configuration (as of this writing we currently are advertising mostly dry conditions Wednesday night, with higher convective chances on Thursday). Hot and humid conditions otherwise continue through Thursday with highs continuing to range in the lower to mid 90s inland and around 90 closer to the coast. Afternoon heat indices generally look to average in the upper 90s to around 102 Wednesday and may trend upward to 100-105 degrees over much of the area by Thursday. /21 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at:
...Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Storm intensity and coverage through midnight is the main forecast concern. Wednesday should be mainly dry, but there are some signals that isolated activity may push southeast into parts of northeast NE and west central IA with heating in the afternoon. Anything that forms should dissipate early in the evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be increasing on Thursday. Main severe risk Thursday (at least for now) still looks to be mostly west of our area. Expect some severe storms in the area through about midnight, maybe just a bit longer near the KS and MO borders. Large hail and winds over 60 mph seem to be the main hazards. Airmass has become somewhat unstable with SPC Meso page showing 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE at 3 pm over much of the forecast area, but lower near the SD border. Effective bulk shear is adequate, with 35-45 knots shown over much of our area. Storms should continue take an east or southeast trajectory as they move in from the west. There still is not a clear signal in the various convection allowing models (CAMs) but if the 18Z HRRR is close to correct we may have a few isolated severe storms with mainly a hail threat prior to 7 pm north of a line from David City to Omaha and Atlantic Iowa. Then more widespread storms could sweep in with a wind and hail threat from 8 pm until midnight mostly south of a line from David City to Plattsmouth and Red Oak. Winds aloft are fairly strong and there is a decent mid level shortwave trough that will push through the region overnight into Wednesday morning. The trough should be along a line from about Upper MI to eastern OK by 18Z Wednesday. A mid level ridge will then build east for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, but will then dampen out. A mid level anticyclone should develop over the Four Corners region Friday/Saturday, then move eastward Sunday and Monday as a new trough digs into the western US. That trough should bring more active weather for the northern Plains (and possibly our area as well) Monday/Tuesday. Model agreement on the large scale pattern drops off by the mid part of next week. After Thursday of this week, rain chances will be lower with mainly dry weather expected from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Then small chances for precipitation return after that. High temperatures should turn warmer, and right now appear like this: Wednesday 75 to 80, Thursday in the 70s north and upper 70s or lower 80s south, Friday mid to upper 70s, Saturday upper 70s and lower 80s (some mid 80s possible), Sunday in the 80s, Monday mid 80s to lower 90s, Tuesday mostly 80s to around 90. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Main concerns are severe storm chances this evening, and will keep mention of TSRA in TAFs - for KOFK until 03z and then for KOMA and KLNK until 05Z or 06Z. Right now have timed main brunt of storms through KLNK and KOMA 02Z to 04Z with some gusts. Gusts could reach at or above 50 knots at KLNK but did not feel confident enough for that at this point and went with 45 knots. Hail also possible and will add if needed in an amendment. There are some signals at potential for MVFR ceilings later tonight, but left out for now. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Miller AVIATION...Miller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
754 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 750 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Earlier strong to severe storms have diminished considerably across Middle Tennessee, although there is still some activity occurring and there will be scattered cells around for most of the night. But the HRRR shows far less coverage tonight than what we experienced last night. The 00Z sounding from OHX shows a moist but only marginally unstable environment -- considerably less instability than was shown 24 hours ago. Expect activity to re- fire again tomorrow during the day as another impulse comes across Middle Tennessee. For now, the forecast looks to be in good shape so no changes are planned. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Active and unsettled weather pattern ahead for this week. Heat returns for next week. Convection is firing up across the south this afternoon. The scattered activity should continue to expand northward with time as convective temps are reached. Lots of instability in place but overall organization and wind energy levels are on the low side. Still looking at the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms. But they will primarily be pulse driven. There is some partial overnight upper divergence so look for some lingering general thunderstorms late tonight. On Wednesday, the active pattern will ramp up a bit. A potent shortwave will offer a boost to the convective organization potential. Instabilities will then work with increasing 850 mb wind energy to set the stage for some severe weather. We are outlooked with a slight risk across the entire area. Helicity values do not really jump off the screen at me. Furthermore, 700-500 mb lapse rates are not overly impressive. Thus, looks like a tstm wind damage threat, primarily. As for the flooding potential, given the copious rainfall amounts that have fallen east of i-65 will need to watch for some minor flooding potential. PWATs are still rather high within this soupy airmass. The one saving grace may be the frontal boundary will not phase favorably with the strong upper impulse. At any rate, Wednesday`s severe weather timing looks like from 10 am until 6 pm. best chance for severe appears to be south of I-40. Moving on, we will get a brief break on Thursday as some drier air moves in behind the fropa. For the near term temps, its looking warm and humid. however, lower humidity levels can be expected on Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 The airmass will quickly reload with another chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and night. The trajectory of this potential MCS is a bit uncertain, but will need to be watched. Behind this complex, we will finally gravitate to a calmer but increasingly hot pattern will commence. Look for upper ridging to move in by the middle of next week. gfs/Euro 850 mb averages are close to 22C by next Tuesday. Furthermore, CPC is showing above normal temps for the 6 to 14 day period. Here comes the heat with mid 90s possible for our highs. Moisture undercut potential looks weak with max MRH values of just 55 to 60 percent. Thermal separation is noted over the MO and IL areas so not too far away. Here comes some heat! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the TAF period. Tried to time breaks when the best chance would be...but with that being noted the forecast will not be perfect. Current convection will continue to move north and east through 04Z. At that time there will be convection along the TN/AL state line that will move east. Expect redevelopment east of I-65 after 10Z and this will mainly affect CSV...BNA...and MQY. By 08/22Z the next round of showers and thunderstorms will be firing across middle TN. For the most part BNA/MQY/CKV should stay VFR or at the lowest MVFR until 08/22Z. Models are showing MVFR/IFR for CSV after 09Z through 15Z. Then again after 08/22Z with the next round of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be southwesterly and become more variable overnight before becoming southwesterly again tomorrow after 15Z. Except for in and around thunderstorms winds should be 10 kts or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 69 83 64 83 / 60 90 70 0 Clarksville 67 82 62 81 / 50 80 70 0 Crossville 66 78 62 77 / 60 80 80 0 Columbia 68 83 64 83 / 60 90 60 10 Cookeville 68 80 63 78 / 60 90 80 0 Jamestown 65 79 61 75 / 40 90 80 0 Lawrenceburg 68 82 65 82 / 60 90 60 10 Murfreesboro 69 83 65 83 / 60 90 70 0 Waverly 67 80 62 83 / 50 90 50 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Rose SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
819 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 819 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Updated the rain chances and timing in the forecast this evening, although there still is a lot of spread on the specific areas and timing in the models. Removed POPs for the early to mid evening as the chances of precipitation development over the area looks minimal. So will focus on the thunderstorms that will be moving toward the area from the High Plains of eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Additional thunderstorms may also develop along the cold front that will be moving into the area overnight. Reoriented the overnight POPs a little bit looking at the range of solutions from the various models. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 A mid-level trough is currently observed via water vapor loop over eastern Wyoming. The associated dynamic lift and upslope flow will generate thunderstorms over the high plains this afternoon/evening. These storms are anticipated to track southeastward and grow upscale overnight and enter parts of northern Oklahoma after 1AM. Forecast soundings would support the risk of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail up to golf ball size and damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph. With anomolously high PWAT values, these storms will be efficient rain producers with 2-3 inch/hr rainfall rates possible. With each successive HRRR run, however, uncertainty has grown on the specific location impacted. Regardless, there is a consistent signal that thunderstorms will impact northern and perhaps western Oklahoma during the early morning hours on Wednesday. As of this morning, the threat for heaviest rainfall appeared to be over parts of north-central and northeastern Oklahoma. Therefore, a relatively short-fused Flood Watch has been issued for Garfield, Grant, Kay, and Noble Counties from 06Z through 18Z Wed. Will have to monitor the potential for a repeat heavy rainfall event across central Oklahoma during tomorrow`s rush hour, as the 18Z HRRR indicates this as a possibility. The aforementioned trough will drive a cold front into our area tomorrow with highs a few degrees cooler than today. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Wednesday night, there is still a signal of a showers/thunderstorm development due to low-level WAA. Though there is still a notable model spread on timing/location, significant rainfall does not appear to be a big issue for this period. Winds veer to the south on Thursday as a surface low develops ahead of another wave. This upper trough descends across the central plains and will bring the next best chance of an MCS Thursday night into Friday morning with the trailing cold front moving through during the day Friday. There will be a a slight dip in high temperatures on Saturday, as a result. The mid-level ridge builds over the desert southwest and shifts overhead this weekend. While western north Texas will experience near century mark temperatures on Friday, the heat isn`t expected to return to the rest of the FA until Sunday and Monday. Thompson && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 A complex weather forecast tonight, especially as far as storm chances. In the big picture, a front will move into the area overnight. Storms forming on the High Plains this afternoon will also move towards the area, although there is a lot of variability in the timing and location of the initial storms, although storms may be a little more organized along the front as it moves through. There will be MVFR or locally IFR conditions with the thunderstorms, and perhaps some MVFR ceilings behind the cold front as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 69 82 66 85 / 50 40 20 20 Hobart OK 69 84 66 91 / 30 30 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 73 92 70 94 / 20 20 10 10 Gage OK 65 79 62 86 / 50 40 20 10 Ponca City OK 67 80 63 81 / 70 30 10 20 Durant OK 73 90 71 91 / 20 40 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon for OKZ007-008-012-013. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
652 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Key Messages: 1) Widely scattered thunderstorms into this evening. A few storms may be strong to marginally severe with a localized flash flooding risk. 2) Thunderstorm complex to move in late tonight into Wednesday morning. Potential for a few severe storms and localized flooding. 3) Another storm complex expected Thursday night into Friday morning. 4) Dry this weekend with a warming trend into next week. .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon along a stalled surface boundary across the eastern Missouri Ozarks. The environment across this region features uncapped MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg with effective bulk shear values of around 25 knots. That CAPE/shear combo may support a marginally severe storm or two as we head into late this afternoon and early this evening. We will also be watching for a localized flash flood threat as storm motions remain slow along this stationary focusing mechanism. Across the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas, there are some indications that we may see an isolated storm or two late this afternoon and this evening. The atmosphere continues to destabilize across this area beneath diminishing high clouds. A cumulus field is already beginning to mature north of the Highway 54 corridor with a few other notable corridors of cumulus along weak convergence zones across southern Missouri. The reason for low coverage expectations is the presence of weak upper level height rises. Attention then shifts to later tonight as the setup will once again support mesoscale convective system development across the central Plains. As is typically the case with such systems, the exact track and timing remain in question. We are fairly confident that initial MCS development will take place from western and central Nebraska into western Kansas as a low level jet interacts with congealing cold pools. Corfidi vectors then favor this system pushing southeast and approaching the Missouri Ozarks after 06Z. Confidence then decreases regarding the longevity and track of this system as it gets into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The last several runs of the RAP refocus low-level jet energy across central and eastern Oklahoma later tonight which will impact the track of that "northern" MCS. The HREF indicates fairly high consensus that the northern MCS will continue to track east, generally north of the Highway 60 corridor. The southern extent of this MCS remains in question. While this MCS will tend to weaken with time as it encounters lower instability, enough of a cold pool will exist to promote a localized damaging wind threat. Farther south, the refocusing of that low-level jet will likely promote additional thunderstorm development/strengthening across northern and northeastern Oklahoma after 07Z. This activity will also track southeast within a fairly unstable airmass and may clip portions of southwestern Missouri. This activity may have a slightly higher severe weather and flooding threat as there may be a small window of training potential before an appreciable cold pool develops. At this time, we have opted against a Flood Watch for the area given the expected progressive nature of the complex north of Highway 60 and a lack of confidence regarding whether or not the activity in northern Oklahoma will clip southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. If our confidence increases that the expected activity across northern Oklahoma will shift into southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri, a short-fused Flood Watch may be required. One other item we will have to watch tonight is the potential for fog across south-central Missouri. High clouds with the developing thunderstorm complexes may arrive a bit later tonight which will keep a small window open for fog development from late this evening into the overnight period. The main complex(es) of storms should then be fairly quick to exit the area Wednesday morning. We could see additional widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development in the afternoon as a cold front surges into the area. There would be a low-end risk for a strong to severe storm if enough instability can develop behind the morning activity. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Wednesday night and Thursday then look dry as surface high pressure briefly settles over the region. Ensembles then continue to show strong agreement that short wave energy will dig southeast across the Corn Belt Thursday night as the upper level flow begins to amplify. A low-level jet will strengthen across the southern Plains Thursday night and likely nose into the Ozarks as that frontal boundary briefly returns north. This is a good setup for yet another nocturnal MCS tracking over the area late Thursday night and early Friday morning. We will have to again monitor for the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding with this system. The severe potential will depend on the track of this system as well as the amount of instability that can remain established ahead of this system well into the night. The WPC Cluster Analysis Tool (WCAT) then continues to indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure strengthening across the Rockies this weekend with the Missouri Ozarks initially within a northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of that ridge. This should result in that front settling well south of the area and a dry weekend. WCAT data then depicts good consensus that the ridge will slowly migrate east during the early and middle portions of next week. This would support a warming trend with most MCS activity remaining to our north. It should be noted that there are a few ensemble members and even operational models (such as the 12Z ECMWF) that do fire nocturnal MCS activity much closer to home along the eastern edge of a low-level theta-e ridge. While we have kept PoPs at or below 10% for now early next week (NBM numbers), this will be something to monitor. Of perhaps greater note will be the aforementioned warming trend next week. Ensembles indicate high probabilities that 850 mb temperatures will warm above 20 Celsius. There are actually 40 to 60% probabilities that 850 mb temperatures will reach or exceed 25 degrees Celsius across southeastern Kansas and portions of western Missouri. Conditional climatology of 850 temperatures in this range would suggest that high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s appear quite likely as we get into next week. This is supported by the CPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 Day Outlooks which indicate a strong signal for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A few showers/storms are ongoing, very isolated east of KSGF. Otherwise VFR to start, though some overnight fog may develop in some areas where the sky can clear and recent rainfall has occurred. A storm complex or clusters of storms over the High Plains will move east into the area during the late night period 08z-12z. Some wind gusts, especially ahead of the storms with outflow boundaries will be possible. Showers/storms are expected to shift east of the area late in the period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schaumann LONG TERM...Schaumann AVIATION...DSA