Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/08/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1002 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022
.UPDATE...
Have allowed Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322 to expire at 10pm MDT.
Isolated storms are still impacting east central NM and high-res
models suggest this could persist through midnight. That said, it
appears the risk for organized severe storms is diminishing but a
few robust updrafts could support large hail. Localized damaging
winds may also be possible. DPorter
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...619 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Isolated severe storms will continue to impact northeast NM though
the evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threats,
though a tornado is not out of the question. Otherwise, the main
story will be another backdoor front pushing south and west through
the plains tonight into Wednesday morning. Abundant low clouds will
likely develop across the plains behind the front. KTCC will most
likely impacted by MVFR cigs, though KLVS may be impacted as well. On
Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across
central NM. Storms may shift eastward with time, though areal
coverage remains questionable, due to persistent low clouds and
limited heating across the eastern plains. 34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and more moist environment will exist over the eastern
plains in the near term, where chances for showers and thunderstorms
will be focused through Thursday and into Friday and where a few
strong to severe storms are possible each day. There is also
potential for some locally heavy rainfall Wednesday, which may
impact recent burn scars such as Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon and Cooks
Peak. Low level moisture will slosh into the Rio Grande Valley
toward the Continental Divide, where gusty and drier showers and
storms are possible. High temperatures will warm to above normal
Thursday and Friday. The heat will be turned up a notch over the
weekend as near record high temperatures are likely Saturday through
Monday across northern and central New Mexico while chances for rain
dry up. Breezy conditions return Sunday and Monday with potential
for critical fire weather conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDENSDAY NIGHT)... The atmosphere is
destabilizing rapidly across much of eastern NM this afternoon
behind a backdoor front where surface dewpoint temperatures are
currently in the 50s to low 60s. The best coupling of shear and
instability is across far northeast NM, where the SPC currently
shows a slight risk for severe storms and a watch was just issued.
The latest HRRR and HREF peg Colfax, Union and Harding Counties for
storms later this afternoon/evening. Storms are forecast to move off
into the TX/OK Panhandles later this evening and the backdoor front
will progress back to the southwest aided by convective cold pools.
The front is forecast to stall at the central mountain chain by mid
day Wednesday, where convection will initiate and become well-
developed given ample moisture and forcing. Any location along the
central mountain chain and adjacent highlands could see locally
heavy rainfall Wednesday afternoon given relatively slow storm
motion and persistent easterly upslope flow, but the main concern is
definitely the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon and Cook`s Peak burn scars
where life threatening flash flooding with potential debris flows is
possible. The front, combined with convective outflow, will push
moisture west beyond the RGV late Wednesday and may result in storms
across the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros, though those storms will
be moisture-challenged and more likely to result in a lot of wind
and little measurable rainfall. Gusty east canyon/gap winds into the
RGV and upper Tularosa Valley are likely late Wednesday as well. The
forecast for Wednesday night is more uncertain with regard to
convection as the models are at odds with coverage and maintenance
across eastern NM.
LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... An upper ridge will be
building over New Mexico Thursday and Friday before starting to
break down Sunday and Monday. Thursday still appears fairly active
with showers and storms stretched from the Gila region northeast
into northeast New Mexico. As the upper high strengthens Friday,
moisture will remain trapped under the high but activity overall
will be less. Moisture may attempt to slosh back into eastern New
Mexico Friday night but models aren`t in agreement on this and it
doesn`t seem to have much impact by midday Saturday. However, the
upper high may be positioned such that some moisture could sneak up
from the south and this tap may persist Sunday. If there is any
activity as a result it could be drier with gusty winds. By Monday
breezy to windy conditions return. High temperatures Thursday and
Friday recover to above normal values, while highs across the
forecast area look to be near record values at many locales Saturday
through Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A backdoor front will bring moisture and chances for wetting storms
west to the central mountain chain through Thursday with the
potential for burn scar flooding and debris flows. The most
sensitive period for burn scar flooding will be Wednesday
afternoon/evening, when storms will be moving slowly and producing
soaking rains. Meanwhile, western New Mexico will remain hot, mostly
dry and unstable. An upper high will build up over the state
beginning Thursday and lead to a drying/warming trend through the
weekend with hot, dry and unstable conditions areawide. Daily rounds
of storms are forecast from Thursday through the weekend, but with a
gradually shrinking wetting footprint. The upper high will back off
to the south Sunday into Monday as a west coast trough progresses
across the Intermountain West and brings stronger westerlies into
the region. Critical fire weather conditions are looking more likely
for Monday and may continue into Tuesday of next week. 11
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR cigs holding on at KTCC through mid day behind a backdoor front,
but should improve to VFR by 19Z latest. Iso/Sct storms will develop
this afternoon/evening across northeast NM and may impact KLVS with
strong/erratic wind gusts. Much lower probability at KTCC for storms
and too low to include in TAF. The backdoor front will get reinforced
overnight into Wednesday morning and result in more MVFR cigs at
KTCC and possibly KLVS. Mountain obscurations are likely Wednesday
morning along the central mountain chain. 11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for
the following zones... NMZ214-215.
&&
$$
46
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1054 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Key Messages:
- Increasing rain potential tonight/early Wednesday, especially
near/south of I-90
- Continued Below Normal Temperatures Into the Weekend - Warmer
Next Week
- Periodic Rain/Storm Chances Continue
Tonight-Wednesday...
Quasi-zonal flow aloft persists today with early afternoon water
vapor imagery showing several embedded perturbations, including a
weak wave approaching western MN and stronger shortwave trough
progressing from the northern Rockies. A few showers have occurred
today in association with enhanced mid-level moisture/modest
frontogenesis, mainly west of the Mississippi River.
Into this evening, some CAMs have indicated scattered showers and
isolated storms spreading into southeast MN and northeast Iowa
within a region of 700 mb warm advection. However, the higher rain
chances look to arrive overnight as synoptic lift/mid-level
deformation increases ahead of the approaching stronger shortwave
trough. The I-90 corridor and to the south is most favored for rain
based on trends in the high-res CAMs. A focused corridor of 1/2-1"
rain amounts is possible with the 07.12Z HREF suggesting some
potential for localized 1-2+" amounts within the band. Overall,
however, given only modest MUCAPE up to around 500 J/kg, relatively
weak moisture transport associated with a 30 kt low-level jet, and
lack of deep warm cloud depths, do not anticipate much of a
widespread heavy rain threat. Severe storms are also not expected
within the weak instability environment.
The more organized showers/storms will move east Wednesday morning
in conjunction with the shortwave trough. Additional diurnal
development of isolated to scattered showers/storms is possible as a
weak upper trough approaches later in the day with potential for 500
J/kg of surface or mixed layer CAPE to develop per the HREF/RAP.
Another cool day is in store for with highs in the 60s to low 70s,
coolest where clouds/rain likely linger later into the day,
especially east.
Wednesday Night Through Tuesday...
Wednesday night...a trailing shortwave in the northwest flow aloft
may generate isolated showers. There is forecast to be around 300
J/kg SBCAPE, so cannot rule out a rumble of thunder. Thursday is
looking dry...in-between shortwaves. Southwest 850mb flow
increases Thursday night into Friday with a couple shortwave
troughs moving through the upper level flow between the 500mb
ridge over the Rockies and the closed low over Hudson Bay.
Instability appears weak, however low level lapse rates steepen
to 6.5 to 7.5 deg C/km, so cannot rule out thunder again in the
vicinity of the 850/700mb low/warm advection. The rain for Friday
will depend on the storm track and how focused the frontogenesis
is. The storm track has been trending a little south. For now we
have our higher precipitations chances over the southern part of
the forecast area. Saturday through Monday, the mid- tropospheric
ridge builds eastward. We continue to see periodic
shower/thunderstorm chances with "ridge riders". Temperatures are
forecast to be in the 70s Saturday and Sunday warming into the
70s and 80s Monday. The NAEFS temperatures anomalies bring warmer
temperatures with the ridge for Tuesday with 2.0 to 2.5 standard
deviations at 1000mb into the region. Above normal highs are
forecast in the upper 70s to upper 80s for Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Plenty of convection this evening across Nebraska and Iowa along
and north of a stalled boundary over Missouri. The RAP has been
consistent this evening showing a weak area of low pressure
forming on the north side of this convection over western Iowa in
response to an incoming short wave trough and then tracking east
into Illinois overnight. Some weak frontogenesis on the north side
of the low along with lift from the wave, should cause another
band of mainly showers to develop along and south of the
Interstate 90 corridor. The CAMS suggest that by the time this
activity gets going it has a chance of being southeast of KRST but
developing over KLSE. Based on this idea, have gone back to just a
VCSH at KRST with a period of showers for KLSE with just a minor
visibility reduction and VFR ceilings for both sites. Showers move
east early Wednesday morning with the clouds expected to scatter
out in the mid to late afternoon.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Zapotocny
AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1020 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure quickly builds into the area tonight before low
pressure tracks across the northern Ohio Valley Wednesday night.
High pressure returns for Thursday and Thursday night before
another weak wave of low pressure moves across the Ohio Valley
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in for the
second half of the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Minimal changes made to forecast, though adjusted timing for
shower and thunderstorms for Wednesday night to account for
latest model guidance. The 00Z HRRR has precipitation moving
across the a touch earlier and out of the area a bit faster. All
model guidance has some amount of fog developing tonight so kept
that in the forecast. A few models are suggesting the
development of a large area of dense fog
Previous Discussion...
Cold front continuing to sag through...currently extending from
Edinboro, PA into Ohio near Burton, Strongsville, New London,
Bucyrus and Bellefontaine. A couple broken bands of
showers/storms are evolving along and just ahead of this front.
Rain chances will quickly end as the front sweeps out of our
area through the next few hours. No severe weather yet with any
of these storms...40-50 knots of effective deep-layer shear
remains in place, along with some mid-level dry air and modest
DCAPE of 500-800 J/KG ahead of the front. However, skinny and
limited CAPE profiles (normalized CAPE values of less than 0.1,
MLCAPE values of around 500 J/KG, low-level lapse rates of
7C/km or less, and mid-level lapse rates of 5.5-6.0C/km) have
prevented any storms from becoming strong enough to take
advantage of the stronger shear and drier air aloft. So, will
continue to monitor for a stray stronger wind gust or small hail
with a stronger core, but so far nothing has been concerning.
Wooster and Akron/Canton have gusted to around 30 MPH with these
storms...storms may intensify just a bit more over the next
couple of hours before exiting.
POPs quickly exit this evening and clouds will largely clear out
as well. With high pressure moving overhead calming the winds
and allowing for some radiational cooling, some fog will be
possible across inland locales tonight, especially from the
central highlands points east. Have some fog in the grids in
this area, and future shifts will have to monitor if fog
develops and how dense it tries to get.
Much of the day Wednesday will be dry...a potent little
shortwave trough swings across the southern Great Lakes later
Wednesday into Wednesday night, exiting into Thursday. This
shortwave has trended more amplified on recent model runs and is
now shown to take on a negative trend as it moves by just to our
north...it has also trended a bit slower as a result. Models
show a deepening low pressure moving from the northern Ohio
Valley into the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. The more amplified solution brings rain in
slower Wednesday, keeping most of the day dry now...it also
brings categorical rain chances into our entire CWA Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night, albeit briefly as the system exits
quickly towards early Thursday. The system is progressive, but
the sharper shortwave taking on a negative tilt will lead to
increasing upper-level divergence and subsequent mass response
in the low-mid levels. This may wring out rain efficiently for
a brief period with PWATs increasing to over 1.50" in the warm
sector over the Ohio Valley. If convective rates can get into
our southern counties Wednesday night, a quick 1-2" of rain may
occur...the low-levels appear too stable for a severe threat
though.
Lows tonight mainly in the 50s, perhaps a couple of upper 40s in
colder spots in interior PA. Highs on Wednesday in the 70s,
coolest along the lakeshore. Lows Wednesday night near or a bit
milder than 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The main theme of the day 3 and beyond forecast is the general
ridge/trough pattern west to east across the CONUS, keeping the
Great Lakes region on the cool and slightly unsettled side. Thursday
finds the CWA in the wake of the cold front. The mass fields are not
particularly strong with the pressure systems moving in and out
leading to any events being weakly forced, so the stability of the
surface high moving in will possibly be offset by the steep lapse
rates generated by the cool pool aloft, setting off isolated
showers. As a result, it will be difficult to get extended POP free
periods. Next low pressure system/upper trough axis moves in late
Friday/Friday night. Short term max temperatures in the 70s, 50s at
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak waves aloft continue to drop in from the northwest flow aloft
Saturday and Sunday despite weak surface high pressure. Meanwhile,
the upper ridge over the southern plains will shift eastward and
continue to build, making for a warmer pattern trying to make
headway for the end of the long term forecast period. This is
reflected in the temperature increases. A slow moving warm front
oriented northwest to southeast and moving west to east into
northern Ohio will renew the chances for convection, particularly in
the afternoon. 80s expected by early next week with upper 70s
hanging on in NW PA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
The main cold front has now passed to the southeast, leaving an
MVFR cloud deck in its wake. This cloud deck should dissipate
over the next 1-3 hours, leaving a period of MVFR clouds at
KCLE, KCAK, and KYNG. Mostly clear skies will ensue once clouds
clear out. Due to recent rainfall, moisture content will remain
high through the night. This, combined with radiational cooling
overnight, should lead to fog development overnight through
early Wednesday morning. Areas that received rain Tuesday
afternoon have the greatest chance for IFR visibility, so sites
such as KYNG and KCAK will have the greatest chance for IFR to
VLIFR visibility with fog. It will also be possible at KMFD,
KCLE, and KERI.
Any fog that develops overnight should dissipate shortly after
sunrise Wednesday morning, leaving VFR conditions for much of
the daylight hours on Wednesday. By Wednesday evening, showers
and perhaps embedded thunderstorms approached from the west,
near KTOL and KFDY towards the end of the TAF period and near
KCLE later Wednesday night. Lower ceilings and visibilities will
accompany these showers.
Outlook...Non VFR may return Wed evening/night in scattered
showers/thunderstorms. Periods of non-VFR possible with
showers/thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Variable wind directions in the next 24 hours, but a window of
increasing northeasterly winds expected Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night, becoming northerly as a low pressure system passing
west to east to the south of the lake strengthens. Northwesterly
flow Thursday becomes southwesterly Thursday night. With the
Wednesday/Wednesday night northerly winds, could get 3-4 foot waves
over the central/western basin of the lake for a few hours. No SCA
yet, but may need one for a short duration because of this stronger
flow expected. Otherwise, the bulk of the forecast is 2 foot or less
conditions through the weekend.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
630 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Severe weather threat has ended across southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska this evening with most of the storms pushing into
far eastern Colorado and central Nebraska at this hour. Expect
cooler temperatures and quiet conditions for tonight with some
patchy fog possible across western Nebraska due to recent rain and
hail near Alliance and Sidney. Added fog to the forecast and may
need to extend the fog coverage further west depending on wind
direction and boundary layer cooling.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Forecast concerns are for severe thunderstorms today through early
this evening.
Currently...Surface boundary looks to be shifting east early this
afternoon. Dewpoints at 40 degrees here at Cheyenne...basically
along the Interstate 25 Corridor to Douglas. East of this
front...low to mid 50s dewpoint being observed in the Nebraska
Panhandle. Latest EMC RAP guidance from SPC Mesoanalysis Page
showing SBCAPE 1500-1800J/KG...with 0-6km shear values around
70kts. Already getting some pretty strong storms on our radar in
two locations. Across Converse and Niobrara Counties...several
strong to potentially severe storms are being observed. South
across Scottsbluff County and points south...storms are beginning
to develop and moving east. Upper shortwave seen on IR imagery
near Casper currently...continues to push east and will aid in
thunderstorm development through the afternoon.
For the rest of the afternoon...storms will continue to develop
ahead of that boundary as CAPE and shear values remain quite high.
Discrete storms look to bow out once the storms move out to near
Alliance and Sidney late this afternoon. HRRR forecasts an early
show...with storms ending after 1900 or so tonight.
Wednesday looks dry as upper shortwave that is moving through our
area now tracks into eastern Nebraska. Do have another upper vort
max moving through the upper ridge Wednesday afternoon...but it is
looking to track into northeast Wyoming.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through next Tuesday)
Weather Highlights:
1) Rapid warming Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures could
climb into the 90s Saturday for eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle. Temperatures on Sunday could climb into the upper 90s in
the Nebraska Panhandle with upper 80s across eastern Wyoming.
2) Thunderstorm chances return Sunday, with chances for showers and
thunderstorms lingering into next week.
3) A storm system will push a cold front through the area Monday
night, which will cool temperatures down on Tuesday.
Overview: The long term forecast continues to support a rapid warm-
up occurring across central and eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle. Seasonal temperatures will be quickly replaced by 15-20F
above normal high temperatures, just in time for the weekend. Just
how hot is it going to get? Latest forecast update has continued to
trend warmer as the NBM is now showing a high temperature of 90F for
Cheyenne on Saturday with widespread 90s across eastern Wyoming and
the Nebraska Panhandle. The record high temperature for June 11
(Saturday) for Cheyenne is 92F set back in 2013. Temperatures will
remain well above normal on Sunday, but could trend slightly cooler
as afternoon showers and thunderstorms and a shift in the flow aloft
will contribute to the slightly cooler temperatures, but
temperatures across the southern Nebraska Panhandle could push into
the mid to upper 90s! As mentioned, a return to afternoon showers
and thunderstorms is possible come Sunday afternoon, with another
round of thunderstorms possible again on Monday. Some of the storms
on Monday could become strong to severe, and will bare monitoring
over the next few days.
Discussion: Progressive zonal flow with embedded shortwaves will
transition to a more amplified ridging patter as an area of high
pressure builds across the Intermountain West and shifts east toward
the Front Range. Associated with this ridge, a strengthening thermal
ridge expands and moves into SE Wyoming by Friday. The bulk of the
warmest air will lag behind but temperatures should easily eclipse
80F for most everyone on Friday. By Saturday, models are in good
agreement in shifting this thermal ridge across the Front Range with
H7 temperatures surging into the 15-20C range Saturday afternoon,
with full sun, temperatures will rapidly climb for areas east of the
Laramie Range and in the Nebraska Panhandle. By Sunday, most models
suggest a breakdown of the ridge axis allowing for a more west to
northwest flow aloft to develop. Moisture in the lower level will
begin to increase and should be enough to initiate some diurnal
convection Sunday afternoon. Cloud debris and the cooler NW flow
aloft should be enough to keep temperatures from warming too much
Sunday afternoon, but outside these areas, temperatures could sore
into the mid to upper 90s, especially across the southern Nebraska
Panhandle.
Heading into Monday, the ridge shift east allowing for the next
storm system to dive south across Montana and move east through
Wyoming. At the surface a cold front will move through the region
Monday night. With a warm, and unstable airmass ahead of the frontal
boundary and with better dynamics aloft, scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms may develop in the warm sector, ahead of
the frontal boundary Monday afternoon. These storms could become
strong to severe. As the front moves through, CAA will spill into
north central Wyoming and spread south and east. Some breezy
conditions may accompany this front and much cooler temperatures are
expected on Tuesday, but temperatures will be in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 523 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022
VFR, except for MVFR at Sidney from 07Z to 14Z. Wind gusts to
33 knots at all terminals until 02Z, then to 25 knots at Wyoming
terminals until 06Z, then to 24 knots at Wyoming terminals after
15Z Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Cold front/dry line...currently located along the Laramie Range is
pushing east this afternoon. It will kick off showers and
thunderstorms through the late afternoon and early evening. Storms
east of this line likely to be severe with large hail and damaging
winds. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 7PM this
evening. Drier and warmer weather for Wednesday into the end of
the week. Fuels are green...so fire weather concerns are minimal.
Still looking at very dry afternoon humidity across Carbon and
Albany Counties...but with these green fuels...fire concerns
should be kept at bay.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1022 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
...Updated Mesoscale...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Complicated thunderstorm evolution continues. Several supercells
have produced large hail across the southwest zones over the past
2 hours, and these are expected to move southeast and weaken over
the next 1 hour. A large MCS northeast of Hill City to southern
Nebraska is moving southeast. This complex, or at least the
outflow from it, is entering Trego/Ellis counties at 1010 pm, but
indications are the worst of this line will pass northeast of
Hays. The future evolution through the night is the primary
concern. A new thunderstorm has reached severe limits near
Goodland. 00z ARW and various other models develop this convection
extensively through 5 am Wednesday, with an extensive squall line
possible as the triggering cold front arrives from the north.
Uncertainly remains how extensive this line will be, but
mesoanalysis shows MU CAPE holding near 2000 J/kg and mcs
maintenance near 90%. With the front acting as a trigger and the
parent shortwave arriving, the potential for a large scale MCS
remains, between the SW KS supercells and the ongoing northern
Kansas MCS. Severe thunderstorm watch #326 has been issued for
much of SW KS through 5 am Wednesday for this expected evolution.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 751 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Updated grids to include large hail/damaging winds wording across
the northwest zones for severe thunderstorm watch #323 through
midnight. Radar imagery shows three powerful supercells slowly
progressing through eastern Colorado, with a history of very large
hail and damaging winds. Various CAMs align with pattern
recognition supporting a large MCS to develop from these storms,
and impact SW KS mainly after midnight. Through midnight, large
hail will remain a threat north and west of Dodge City. After
midnight, risks will transition to damaging wind, possibly
widespread and significant with gusts as high as 75 mph. Latest
HRRR iterations follow this thinking, with the MCS arriving north
midnight to 1am, then reaching central zones around 3-4 am
Wednesday. Increased pops after midnight, and included heavy
rain/damaging wind wording in more of the zones overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Afternoon cumulus were developing across southwest and north
central Kansas as of 17z. This related well with an area of
enhanced deep moisture convergence from the SPC meso Analysis.
Models appear to be in fairly good agreement with this area of
forcing moving northeast through the day as 700mb temperatures
warm. This should limit the potential for any isolated storms late
day across southwest Kansas but an isolated thunderstorm can not
be ruled out across north central Kansas between 4pm and 8pm. The
probability of this is very low but if a storm develops it may be
capable of producing large hail.
The best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms can be
expected towards sunset across western Kansas as developing storms
over Colorado spread east. Given the 0-6km shear and mid level
lapse rates early tonight these storms will be capable of
producing large hail greater than 2 along with gusty winds.
Widespread heavy rainfall overnight will be likely across north
central Kansas as an upper level trough moves from southeast
Wyoming into north central Kansas given the enhanced lift ahead of
this upper wave plus the higher precipitable water values along
with the moisture transport in the 850mb to 700mb layer. Given the
heavy rainfall potential near the I-70 corridor and the rainfall
that has occurred over the past several days will go ahead and
issue a flood watch for Ellis, Trego and Rush counties. Along with
the torrential rainfall being possible These storms will also be
capable of producing strong gusty winds.
Thunderstorms will taper off from north to south early Wednesday
morning as a cold front moves south into Oklahoma. This cold and a
cold front will become nearly stationary across extreme southeast
Colorado, the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma during the day
as a 500mb vort lobe moves out of New Mexico and into the Texas
Panhandle. This may result in a few late day storms near and south
of the Oklahoma border given the forecast location of this
surface boundary along with the moisture and lift developing late
day north of this boundary late day/early evening. An isolated
strong to marginally severe thunderstorm is not out of the
question Wednesday evening but the better opportunity for severe
weather will occur south of the Oklahoma border. Temperatures on
Wednesday will be a little cooler compared to what we are having
this Tuesday afternoon. HIghs are currently expected to range from
the upper 70s to lower 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Models appear to be in good agreement today with an upper level
wave moving through an upper level ridge that will be building
east across the Rockies on Thursday. This upper level wave is
forecast to move out of Wyoming and into northern Kansas. Also on
Thursday a surface cold front will be moving south into northern
Kansas and given the cooler mid level temperatures being present
across north central Kansas along with late day heating and
forcing along this approaching cold front the chance for
thunderstorms will be on the increase early Thursday night as the
upper level trough approaches. Still some subtle disagreements on
track and location of the surface features Thursday evening but
even taking this into account it appears the best chance for
evening convection will be north of a Garden City to Dodge city
line with the highest probability being along the I-70 corridor.
Precipitable water values in this area range between 1 to 1.5
inches so another round of heavy rainfall is expected with these
storms. 0-6km shear and mid level lapse rates support the
potential for hail larger than 2. Strong damaging winds will
also be possible as these storms track southeast early Thursday
night.
Prior to the onset of this severe weather potential event late
Thursday there will be a chance from some scattered elevated
thunderstorms early Thursday morning near and northeast of a
eastward moving elevated mixed layer based on the 850mb warm air
advection and 850mb-700mb moisture transport. These storms are not
expected to be severe but could produce some small hail along
with brief heavy rainfall.
On Friday the cold front will move into Oklahoma as the upper
level trough continues to track into the southeast United States
during the day. Cooler 850mb temperatures will be present across
southwest Kansas during the day which will result in keeping
afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s. These 80 degree
highs on Friday will give way to highs in the 90s over the weekend
as westerly downslope flow improves and 850mb to 700mb
temperatures warm by 3-5C each dayespecially west of highway
283. On Monday the potential exists for highs to be near 100.
Over the weekend several upper level waves are still forecast to
move through the upper ridge that will be building eastward out of
the Rockies and into the Central Plains. Warm mid level
temperature over western Kansas will significantly limit the
thunderstorm potential this weekend/early next week as any of the
subtle waves pass. As the upper ridge moves east an upper level
trough will exit the eastern Pacific and move into the western
California and the Pacific Northwest. An upper level trough will
approach western Kansas towards mid week and as it approaches from
the west there will be an increase chance for thunderstorms for
western Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 453 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
An active TAF period upcoming, with convective impacts, a cold
frontal passage, and post-frontal stratus expected. Convection
across eastern Colorado as of 2130z is expected to congeal into
another mesoscale convective system (MCS), arriving near the CO/KS
border around 00z Wed. Other storms in western Nebraska will also
congeal into another MCS, reaching the northern zones near HYS
overnight. Uncertainty remains on exact evolution and convective
timing, but using the ARW as a guide, included TEMPO groups in the
00z TAFs for expected convective impacts (03-07z Wed). Amendments
in timing are likely per radar/satellite trends overnight. Also
tonight a cold front will pass, clearing the airports by 12z Wed.
A north wind shift will result, with gusts to near 25 kts. Good
agreement from short term models that post frontal stratus will
spread through SW KS, with MVFR or even IFR ceilings likely by
12z Wed.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 79 59 85 / 80 10 10 20
GCK 60 78 59 87 / 70 10 10 20
EHA 60 78 61 91 / 70 20 20 10
LBL 61 79 61 89 / 70 10 20 10
HYS 59 78 57 82 / 70 10 10 30
P28 65 81 61 82 / 70 10 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ030-031-046.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Turner
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
719 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Bottom Line Up Front: Two rounds of severe weather potential, one
tonight and another Thursday night. Main threats appear to be
severe level winds and flooding potential.
Repeated nocturnal convection over the past few nights has kept the
area rather wet with soils completely saturated over most of the
CWA. There is also a persistent trough line stretched over the
western portions of the CWA. The NAM/GFS ensembles are indicating
this will provide the needed forcing to allow thunderstorms to
develop once again this afternoon. Mid and upper level shear is
rather good and very supporting of a thunderstorm complex developing
to the north and west of the CWA then moving into the CWA this
evening and overnight. Shear profiles are more parallel strongly
supporting MCS with the main threat being high winds. Winds up to
80 mph are possible, especially along the northern tier of the CWA.
South Central and Southeast Kansas are also at risk for severe
weather but the threat here looks a little more isolated than
scattered. One inch hail and 60 mph winds appear to be the more
likely threat in South Central Kansas tonight. Given the current
conditions of the soils in the area, flooding again appears likely
(see hydro section for more details). Start time looks to be closer
to 8-10PM this evening and continuing into the overnight hours.
Wednesday morning, the complex of thunderstorms will be pushing off
to the east and south and high pressure will be building into the
CWA. The skies will remain clear for Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night for a change. Winds will be northerly allowing some
drier air to move into the region. Temperatures will remain below
normal as a result leaving a rather nice day.
Wednesday night and into the Thursday, the winds will kick back
around to the south allowing moisture transport to return to the
region. There will be a couple of opportunities convection with the
first likely during the morning Thursday. The GFS and NAM ensembles
are showing increasing instability during the morning with CAPE
values approaching 2000 J/Kg and some isentropic upglide as well.
This lends to a round of weak convection over the western areas of
the CWA during the morning and early afternoon. By the afternoon
and into the evening, moisture transport will be at its maximum and
a weak trough will be pushing into the region. Mid and upper level
winds are very conducive convection. Severe weather appears likely
with this activity. Given the orientation of the upper levels and
the low level flow, a wide spread severe weather event appears
likely at this time. Future models runs are still required to
further fine tune the locations and timing of this event. The
biggest change for this event is the ensembles are extending the
duration. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles push the thunder into Friday
morning with the rain ending by mid morning. The GEM on the other
hand extends the event into the late morning and possibly the early
afternoon. The GEM is also much wetter than the ECMWF/GFS families.
Considering this discrepancy, leaned toward the ECMWF/GFS solution.
Temperatures for Thursday and Friday look to remain a little below
normal for this time of year due to the lingering cloud cover and
chances for convection.
Metzger
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
The extended range looks to fairly quiet for a change as ridging
sets in. Some areas to the north may see some convection which
could stray into the CWA Saturday evening and Sunday morning but
this is considered a slight chance at best. Temperatures for weekend
also look to remain in check and a little below normal. Monday and
Tuesday, ridging will continue to build into the region and allow
temperatures to climb to more summer like levels. Mid 90s are a good
possibility in the western areas of the CWA. Tuesday night and into
Wednesday, the ECMWF/GFS/GEM ensembles are indicating the approach
of another weather system into the region. Timing between the three
ensemble families is not in agreement at this time so confidence is
low on the potential for this evening.
Metzger
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 712 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
The main aviation hazards will be thunderstorm potential with
heavy rainfall and gusty wind tonight.
Scattered strong to severe storms will continue to propagate
east-southeastward off of the High Plains this evening, with other
storms forming along a stationary front extending from far
northwestern Kansas across southeastern Nebraska. The storms are
expected to merge into a complex across central Kansas late this
evening into the overnight hours, with southeastward propagation
into the early morning hours. Our highest confidence for TSRA with
gusty winds is at the RSL, GBD and SLN terminals, however we also
introduced a TEMPO TSRA group for the HUT, ICT and CNU terminals
for late tonight. The complex of storms should clear out of
southeastern KS by daybreak. Northerly winds and clearing skies
are expected behind this storm activity for Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Tonight, another round of thunderstorms, some of them severe with
very heavy rain will be moving through the region. Given that most
areas of the CWA already have saturated soils, it will not take much
rain for flooding to become an issue once again. The NAM and GFS
model ensembles as well as the HRRR and HREF are indicating this
event will be more progressive and will likely keep the length of
time of the event to a minimum. As mentioned above, the saturated
condition of the soils in the CWA and expected timing of this event,
the main flood threat appears to be river and flash. Areal flooding
is also a possibility but flash flooding may be a more likely type
of flooding this time around.
Metzger
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 65 80 61 81 / 60 10 0 20
Hutchinson 63 79 59 81 / 70 10 0 20
Newton 64 79 59 80 / 70 10 0 20
ElDorado 65 79 59 79 / 60 10 0 20
Winfield-KWLD 66 81 61 80 / 70 10 0 20
Russell 60 79 57 82 / 70 10 0 40
Great Bend 61 79 59 81 / 60 10 0 30
Salina 63 81 59 82 / 70 0 0 30
McPherson 62 79 59 80 / 70 0 0 30
Coffeyville 67 82 60 81 / 70 50 0 10
Chanute 67 81 60 80 / 70 40 0 10
Iola 66 80 59 80 / 60 30 0 10
Parsons-KPPF 67 81 61 81 / 70 40 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...JMC
HYDROLOGY...ELM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1100 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2022
Just a quick update to the grids mainly to fine tune the PoPs and
QPF through the rest of the night per the latest CAMs and radar
trends. Did also include the current obs and trends for the T/Td
grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with the freshening of the ZFP and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 930 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2022
01Z sfc analysis shows a weak pressure pattern through Kentucky
as low pressure is approaching from the west and slightly higher
pressure is noted to the east of the state. In this environment a
cluster of showers and storms are crawling through the Cumberland
valley bringing plenty of lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain.
Look for these to drift northeast and gradually diminish into the
late evening and likely stay just progressive enough to preclude
hydro issues, but the training potential will need to be watched.
Otherwise, under partly cloudy skies temperatures are mainly in
the mid 70s, through probably in the upper 60s where the storms
have hit. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are elevated in the mid and upper
60s making for a moist column of air contributing to the potential
for heavy rains from any storms. Outside of the convection, winds
are light and variable - in line with the weak pressure pattern
in place. Have updated the forecast to include the latest radar
obs and CAMs trends for the PoPs/QPF as well as the current obs
and trends for the T/Td grids. These updates have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 435 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2022
Late this afternoon, an upper level low was centered over
northern Ontario to the south of Hudson Bay with an upper level
ridge extending across portions of the Western Conus. Westerly
rather zonal flow was in place from the Rockies east to the
Appalachians with a few generally weak disturbances moving from
the Plains to the MS Valley to the OH Valley and Appalachians.
Further upstream, a shortwave trough was moving across the
Dakotas/northern Plains. At the sfc, an area of low pressure was
centered north of Lake Erie with a wavy nearly stationary front
extending southwest to the OH Valley and then west into the Plains
and then north to the Lee of the Rockies. Cloud cover for much of
the day has been quite extensive following overnight and morning
showers. Cumulus that has develop has generally been quite shallow
though some moderate cu and showers have developed near the TN
and VA borders. Any updrafts appear to be struggling to climb to
much of a vertical extent as mesoanalysis indicates that mid level
lapse rates are only around 5 C/km despite low level lapse rates
of 7 C/km or better and MLCAPE of 100 J/kg or higher across the
southern two thirds of the area. The showers that have developed a
bit more vertical depth have occurred near the TN border where
MLCAPE is about 1500 J/kg. These weaker midlevel lapse rates and
lower end CAPE values are unable to take advantage of effective
shear of 30KT or better.
This evening and tonight, a weak shortwave trough is expected to
cross the OH Valley while the more substantial shortwave trough in
the northern Plains digs toward the mid MS Valley. Downstream of
this at the sfc, the nearly stationary front currently north of
the OH River should sag a bit toward the OH River and possibly
into the far northern CWA. However, low pressure in advance of
the upstream shortwave should track into the mid MS
Valley/portions of the midwest tonight. This shortwave trough
should track into the Southern Great Lakes to OH Valley region
late Wed and across the OH Valley Wed evening into Wed night. The
sfc low meanwhile should track north of the region with the area
getting into the warm sector late tonight and especially Wed as
the boundary lifts north into OH as a warm front.
The passing shortwave trough this evening and into tonight along
with the frontal zone sagging into the region should lead to a bit
of an increase in coverage of convection as compared to the present
coverage. Depending on where the front stalls and the coverage of
evening or overnight convection, some fog development or stratus
build down fog will be possible as a good portion of the guidance
suggests.
Chances for convection will continue into the day on Wednesday, with
perhaps a morning to early afternoon area of showers and storms
lifting north across the area in the warm sector. This may be
followed by late afternoon to evening uptick as the shortwave trough
near the OH Valley and the cold front trailing from the sfc low to
pass north of the area nears. Model variability exists with the
details with this. Assuming cloud cover is not too extensive to
impede heating, MLCAPE could climb to modest levels in the 1000
to 1500 J/kg range with bulk and effective shear on the order of
30 to 35KT toward 0Z or 8 PM EDT on Wednesday evening. Forecast
soundings from the RAP show deep, but rather skinny CAPE profiles
with limited amounts of CAPE in the -10C to -30C layer. Seasonably
high PWs and low level lapse rates near 7 C/km suggest strong to
locally damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours would be a larger
threat than large hail. 12Z HREF updraft helicity probs are
generally greatest in the north nearer to the frontal zone and
stronger winds aloft/shear and it would appear that the north and
perhaps far west would have a higher chances for strong to severe
storms as opposed to the southeast where convection near cold
front would likely arrive after dark.
The HWO has been updated to highlight the potential for strong to
perhaps locally damaging wind gusts along with potential for locally
heavy rain on Wednesday.
Temperatures will be seasonably mild through the period, a few
degrees above normal tonight and on Wednesday with cooler air
arriving on Wednesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2022
The primary player in the extended will be an area of low
pressure, and its attendant surface boundaries, which will move
across the eastern third of the CONUS Friday, Friday night, and
Saturday. This system will bring a good chance of showers and
storms to eastern Kentucky, especially Friday evening and night,
when an area of surface low pressure moves through the lower Ohio
Valleys. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible at times. Another
weather system will be departing the area early Thursday, so we
may a few showers or storms may be ongoing in our far eastern
counties Thursday morning, before things dry out for a bit. A
ridge of high pressure is then forecast to settle over the area
Thursday and Thursday night, and will bring dry and pleasant
weather to eastern KY. Once the main weather system exits the area
Saturday evening, we should see an extended period of dry weather
that will last into the beginning of the new work week, as another
ridge of high pressure moves in.
Temperatures will be generally below normal the first days of the
extended, as clouds, precip, and some cooler air persist across
the area. By Sunday and Monday, however, after a period of dry
weather, we should see temperatures returning to normal or
above normal values around eastern KY. Nightly lows are expected
to fall into the 50s most of the period, with a strong warming
trend forecast going into next week, with lows in the 60s on tap.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2022
Aside from some storms sneaking into the southern portions of the
forecast area out of north central, Tennessee, most locations
were dry to start the 00Z TAF cycle. A nearby cold front will
lead to mid and high clouds passing across the area much of the
time, with low clouds and isolated convection anticipated, as
well. Coverage of convection appears fairly low for the first 6
hours of the period with better chances late tonight and into the
day on Wednesday as a low pressure possible MCV system tracks
into the OH Valley. Convection will likely lead to brief MVFR or
IFR at any point in time as it passes.
Model blend guidance and LAV guidance still suggest the potential
for low clouds and/or fog later tonight for most locations
including the TAF sites. Some MVFR to IFR vis and or ceilings
will be possible with this and have generally kept the downward
trend from the previous forecast and some guidance still suggests
visibilities or ceilings at or below airport mins are a
possibility. Conditions improve all locations by late morning on
Wednesday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP/GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1034 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...An upper level ridge of high
pressure centered over central and southern portions of Texas will
continue to nose eastward across the north central Gulf Coast
region and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday
afternoon. A series of shortwave troughs embedded within the
west/northwest flow aloft will translate E-SE across northern
portions of MS/AL through Wednesday. These features will result in
the development of convective complexes that will especially
impact northern portions of MS and central/northern AL late
tonight/early Wednesday morning and likely again Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The bulk of short range guidance that is
available as of this writing continues to keep the majority of
our forecast area under the influence of subsidence associated
with the upper level ridge axis that will extend eastward across
central and southern portions of the CWA through Wednesday
afternoon. The exception will be the far northern and
northeastern portion of our forecast area where weak shortwave
impulses embedded within the northwest flow aloft and perhaps
remnant convective outflows associated with the thunderstorm
complexes to our north could interact with available moisture and
instability to aid in the development of isolated to scattered
convective development, especially by Wednesday afternoon and
evening. The atmosphere could become quite unstable late
Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday over the vicinity of
interior south central AL (vicinity of Choctaw, Clarke, Wilcox,
Monroe, Butler, Crenshaw counties), where the latest RAP shows
2500-3500 J/KG of available afternoon MLCAPE. Other guidance,
including the NAM12 keeps the stronger instability just north of
our area. Some of the CAMs show isolated to scattered storms
clipping these counties late Wednesday afternoon/early Wednesday
evening, and if so could bring a risk of damaging wind gusts and
perhaps some hail given the strong instability, steep low level
lapse rates, and DCAPE values up to 800-1000 J/KG.
There is some uncertainty on the evolution of convective placement/
storm chances Wednesday night into Thursday. Northwest flow aloft
takes hold over most of the area during this time as the upper
ridge axis retrogrades westward. Shortwave impulses embedded
within the northwest flow pattern may translate into our area by
Wednesday night and potentially into Thursday, while a weak
frontal boundary also possibly sinks southward into our area.
These features will combine with rich moisture over the area to
potentially bring an increased chance of storms Wednesday
night/Thursday, but will let the next shift take a closer look at
the newer guidance and collaborate potential changes to the POP
configuration (as of this writing we currently are advertising
mostly dry conditions Wednesday night, with higher convective
chances on Thursday). Hot and humid conditions otherwise continue
through Thursday with highs continuing to range in the lower to
mid 90s inland and around 90 closer to the coast. Afternoon heat
indices generally look to average in the upper 90s to around 102
Wednesday and may trend upward to 100-105 degrees over much of the
area by Thursday. /21
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
...Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Storm intensity and coverage through midnight is the main forecast
concern. Wednesday should be mainly dry, but there are some signals
that isolated activity may push southeast into parts of northeast NE
and west central IA with heating in the afternoon. Anything that
forms should dissipate early in the evening. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be increasing on Thursday. Main severe risk
Thursday (at least for now) still looks to be mostly west of our
area.
Expect some severe storms in the area through about midnight, maybe
just a bit longer near the KS and MO borders. Large hail and winds
over 60 mph seem to be the main hazards. Airmass has become somewhat
unstable with SPC Meso page showing 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE at 3 pm
over much of the forecast area, but lower near the SD border.
Effective bulk shear is adequate, with 35-45 knots shown over much
of our area. Storms should continue take an east or southeast
trajectory as they move in from the west. There still is not a clear
signal in the various convection allowing models (CAMs) but if the
18Z HRRR is close to correct we may have a few isolated severe
storms with mainly a hail threat prior to 7 pm north of a line from
David City to Omaha and Atlantic Iowa. Then more widespread storms
could sweep in with a wind and hail threat from 8 pm until midnight
mostly south of a line from David City to Plattsmouth and Red Oak.
Winds aloft are fairly strong and there is a decent mid level
shortwave trough that will push through the region overnight into
Wednesday morning. The trough should be along a line from about
Upper MI to eastern OK by 18Z Wednesday. A mid level ridge will
then build east for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, but
will then dampen out. A mid level anticyclone should develop over
the Four Corners region Friday/Saturday, then move eastward
Sunday and Monday as a new trough digs into the western US. That
trough should bring more active weather for the northern Plains
(and possibly our area as well) Monday/Tuesday. Model agreement on
the large scale pattern drops off by the mid part of next week.
After Thursday of this week, rain chances will be lower with mainly
dry weather expected from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.
Then small chances for precipitation return after that. High
temperatures should turn warmer, and right now appear like this:
Wednesday 75 to 80, Thursday in the 70s north and upper 70s or
lower 80s south, Friday mid to upper 70s, Saturday upper 70s and
lower 80s (some mid 80s possible), Sunday in the 80s, Monday mid
80s to lower 90s, Tuesday mostly 80s to around 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Main concerns are severe storm chances this evening, and will keep
mention of TSRA in TAFs - for KOFK until 03z and then for KOMA and
KLNK until 05Z or 06Z. Right now have timed main brunt of storms
through KLNK and KOMA 02Z to 04Z with some gusts. Gusts could
reach at or above 50 knots at KLNK but did not feel confident
enough for that at this point and went with 45 knots. Hail also
possible and will add if needed in an amendment. There are some
signals at potential for MVFR ceilings later tonight, but left out
for now.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Miller
AVIATION...Miller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
754 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Earlier strong to severe storms have diminished considerably
across Middle Tennessee, although there is still some activity
occurring and there will be scattered cells around for most of the
night. But the HRRR shows far less coverage tonight than what we
experienced last night. The 00Z sounding from OHX shows a moist
but only marginally unstable environment -- considerably less
instability than was shown 24 hours ago. Expect activity to re-
fire again tomorrow during the day as another impulse comes across
Middle Tennessee. For now, the forecast looks to be in good shape
so no changes are planned.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday Night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Active and unsettled weather pattern ahead for this week. Heat
returns for next week.
Convection is firing up across the south this afternoon. The
scattered activity should continue to expand northward with time as
convective temps are reached. Lots of instability in place but
overall organization and wind energy levels are on the low side.
Still looking at the potential for some strong to severe
thunderstorms. But they will primarily be pulse driven. There is
some partial overnight upper divergence so look for some
lingering general thunderstorms late tonight.
On Wednesday, the active pattern will ramp up a bit. A potent
shortwave will offer a boost to the convective organization
potential. Instabilities will then work with increasing 850 mb wind
energy to set the stage for some severe weather. We are outlooked
with a slight risk across the entire area. Helicity values do not
really jump off the screen at me. Furthermore, 700-500 mb lapse
rates are not overly impressive. Thus, looks like a tstm wind damage
threat, primarily. As for the flooding potential, given the copious
rainfall amounts that have fallen east of i-65 will need to watch
for some minor flooding potential. PWATs are still rather high
within this soupy airmass. The one saving grace may be the frontal
boundary will not phase favorably with the strong upper impulse. At
any rate, Wednesday`s severe weather timing looks like from 10 am
until 6 pm. best chance for severe appears to be south of I-40.
Moving on, we will get a brief break on Thursday as some drier air
moves in behind the fropa.
For the near term temps, its looking warm and humid. however, lower
humidity levels can be expected on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
The airmass will quickly reload with another chance of showers
and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and night. The trajectory of
this potential MCS is a bit uncertain, but will need to be
watched. Behind this complex, we will finally gravitate to a
calmer but increasingly hot pattern will commence.
Look for upper ridging to move in by the middle of next week.
gfs/Euro 850 mb averages are close to 22C by next Tuesday.
Furthermore, CPC is showing above normal temps for the 6 to 14 day
period. Here comes the heat with mid 90s possible for our highs.
Moisture undercut potential looks weak with max MRH values of just
55 to 60 percent. Thermal separation is noted over the MO and IL
areas so not too far away. Here comes some heat!
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
TAF period. Tried to time breaks when the best chance would
be...but with that being noted the forecast will not be perfect.
Current convection will continue to move north and east through
04Z. At that time there will be convection along the TN/AL state
line that will move east. Expect redevelopment east of I-65 after
10Z and this will mainly affect CSV...BNA...and MQY. By 08/22Z the
next round of showers and thunderstorms will be firing across
middle TN.
For the most part BNA/MQY/CKV should stay VFR or at the lowest
MVFR until 08/22Z. Models are showing MVFR/IFR for CSV after 09Z
through 15Z. Then again after 08/22Z with the next round of
showers and thunderstorms.
Winds will be southwesterly and become more variable overnight
before becoming southwesterly again tomorrow after 15Z. Except
for in and around thunderstorms winds should be 10 kts or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 69 83 64 83 / 60 90 70 0
Clarksville 67 82 62 81 / 50 80 70 0
Crossville 66 78 62 77 / 60 80 80 0
Columbia 68 83 64 83 / 60 90 60 10
Cookeville 68 80 63 78 / 60 90 80 0
Jamestown 65 79 61 75 / 40 90 80 0
Lawrenceburg 68 82 65 82 / 60 90 60 10
Murfreesboro 69 83 65 83 / 60 90 70 0
Waverly 67 80 62 83 / 50 90 50 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
819 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Updated the rain chances and timing in the forecast this evening,
although there still is a lot of spread on the specific areas and
timing in the models. Removed POPs for the early to mid evening as
the chances of precipitation development over the area looks
minimal. So will focus on the thunderstorms that will be moving
toward the area from the High Plains of eastern Colorado and
western Kansas. Additional thunderstorms may also develop along
the cold front that will be moving into the area overnight.
Reoriented the overnight POPs a little bit looking at the range of
solutions from the various models.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
A mid-level trough is currently observed via water vapor loop
over eastern Wyoming. The associated dynamic lift and upslope
flow will generate thunderstorms over the high plains this
afternoon/evening. These storms are anticipated to track
southeastward and grow upscale overnight and enter parts of
northern Oklahoma after 1AM. Forecast soundings would support the
risk of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail up to
golf ball size and damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph. With
anomolously high PWAT values, these storms will be efficient rain
producers with 2-3 inch/hr rainfall rates possible.
With each successive HRRR run, however, uncertainty has grown on
the specific location impacted. Regardless, there is a consistent
signal that thunderstorms will impact northern and perhaps
western Oklahoma during the early morning hours on Wednesday. As
of this morning, the threat for heaviest rainfall appeared to be
over parts of north-central and northeastern Oklahoma. Therefore,
a relatively short-fused Flood Watch has been issued for
Garfield, Grant, Kay, and Noble Counties from 06Z through 18Z Wed.
Will have to monitor the potential for a repeat heavy rainfall
event across central Oklahoma during tomorrow`s rush hour, as the
18Z HRRR indicates this as a possibility.
The aforementioned trough will drive a cold front into our area
tomorrow with highs a few degrees cooler than today.
Thompson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Wednesday night, there is still a signal of a showers/thunderstorm
development due to low-level WAA. Though there is still a notable
model spread on timing/location, significant rainfall does not
appear to be a big issue for this period.
Winds veer to the south on Thursday as a surface low develops ahead
of another wave. This upper trough descends across the central
plains and will bring the next best chance of an MCS Thursday
night into Friday morning with the trailing cold front moving
through during the day Friday. There will be a a slight dip in
high temperatures on Saturday, as a result. The mid-level ridge
builds over the desert southwest and shifts overhead this weekend.
While western north Texas will experience near century mark
temperatures on Friday, the heat isn`t expected to return to the
rest of the FA until Sunday and Monday.
Thompson
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
A complex weather forecast tonight, especially as far as storm
chances. In the big picture, a front will move into the area
overnight. Storms forming on the High Plains this afternoon will
also move towards the area, although there is a lot of variability
in the timing and location of the initial storms, although storms
may be a little more organized along the front as it moves
through. There will be MVFR or locally IFR conditions with the
thunderstorms, and perhaps some MVFR ceilings behind the cold
front as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 69 82 66 85 / 50 40 20 20
Hobart OK 69 84 66 91 / 30 30 20 10
Wichita Falls TX 73 92 70 94 / 20 20 10 10
Gage OK 65 79 62 86 / 50 40 20 10
Ponca City OK 67 80 63 81 / 70 30 10 20
Durant OK 73 90 71 91 / 20 40 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon
for OKZ007-008-012-013.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
652 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Key Messages:
1) Widely scattered thunderstorms into this evening. A few storms
may be strong to marginally severe with a localized flash flooding
risk.
2) Thunderstorm complex to move in late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Potential for a few severe storms and localized flooding.
3) Another storm complex expected Thursday night into Friday
morning.
4) Dry this weekend with a warming trend into next week.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon along a
stalled surface boundary across the eastern Missouri Ozarks. The
environment across this region features uncapped MLCAPE values of
1500 to 2000 J/kg with effective bulk shear values of around 25
knots. That CAPE/shear combo may support a marginally severe storm
or two as we head into late this afternoon and early this
evening. We will also be watching for a localized flash flood
threat as storm motions remain slow along this stationary focusing
mechanism.
Across the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas,
there are some indications that we may see an isolated storm or
two late this afternoon and this evening. The atmosphere continues
to destabilize across this area beneath diminishing high clouds. A
cumulus field is already beginning to mature north of the Highway
54 corridor with a few other notable corridors of cumulus along
weak convergence zones across southern Missouri. The reason for
low coverage expectations is the presence of weak upper level
height rises.
Attention then shifts to later tonight as the setup will once
again support mesoscale convective system development across the
central Plains. As is typically the case with such systems, the
exact track and timing remain in question. We are fairly
confident that initial MCS development will take place from
western and central Nebraska into western Kansas as a low level
jet interacts with congealing cold pools. Corfidi vectors then
favor this system pushing southeast and approaching the Missouri
Ozarks after 06Z.
Confidence then decreases regarding the longevity and track of
this system as it gets into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The
last several runs of the RAP refocus low-level jet energy across
central and eastern Oklahoma later tonight which will impact the
track of that "northern" MCS. The HREF indicates fairly high
consensus that the northern MCS will continue to track east,
generally north of the Highway 60 corridor. The southern extent of
this MCS remains in question. While this MCS will tend to weaken
with time as it encounters lower instability, enough of a cold
pool will exist to promote a localized damaging wind threat.
Farther south, the refocusing of that low-level jet will likely
promote additional thunderstorm development/strengthening across
northern and northeastern Oklahoma after 07Z. This activity will
also track southeast within a fairly unstable airmass and may
clip portions of southwestern Missouri. This activity may have a
slightly higher severe weather and flooding threat as there may be
a small window of training potential before an appreciable cold
pool develops.
At this time, we have opted against a Flood Watch for the area
given the expected progressive nature of the complex north of
Highway 60 and a lack of confidence regarding whether or not the
activity in northern Oklahoma will clip southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri. If our confidence increases that the expected
activity across northern Oklahoma will shift into southeast
Kansas/southwest Missouri, a short-fused Flood Watch may be
required.
One other item we will have to watch tonight is the potential for
fog across south-central Missouri. High clouds with the developing
thunderstorm complexes may arrive a bit later tonight which will
keep a small window open for fog development from late this
evening into the overnight period.
The main complex(es) of storms should then be fairly quick to exit
the area Wednesday morning. We could see additional widely
scattered shower and thunderstorm development in the afternoon as
a cold front surges into the area. There would be a low-end risk
for a strong to severe storm if enough instability can develop
behind the morning activity.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
Wednesday night and Thursday then look dry as surface high
pressure briefly settles over the region. Ensembles then
continue to show strong agreement that short wave energy will dig
southeast across the Corn Belt Thursday night as the upper level
flow begins to amplify. A low-level jet will strengthen across the
southern Plains Thursday night and likely nose into the Ozarks as
that frontal boundary briefly returns north.
This is a good setup for yet another nocturnal MCS tracking over
the area late Thursday night and early Friday morning. We will
have to again monitor for the potential for heavy rainfall and
flooding with this system. The severe potential will depend on the
track of this system as well as the amount of instability that
can remain established ahead of this system well into the night.
The WPC Cluster Analysis Tool (WCAT) then continues to indicate
an upper level ridge of high pressure strengthening across the
Rockies this weekend with the Missouri Ozarks initially within a
northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of that ridge.
This should result in that front settling well south of the area
and a dry weekend.
WCAT data then depicts good consensus that the ridge will slowly
migrate east during the early and middle portions of next week.
This would support a warming trend with most MCS activity
remaining to our north. It should be noted that there are a few
ensemble members and even operational models (such as the 12Z
ECMWF) that do fire nocturnal MCS activity much closer to home
along the eastern edge of a low-level theta-e ridge. While we have
kept PoPs at or below 10% for now early next week (NBM numbers),
this will be something to monitor.
Of perhaps greater note will be the aforementioned warming trend
next week. Ensembles indicate high probabilities that 850 mb
temperatures will warm above 20 Celsius. There are actually 40 to
60% probabilities that 850 mb temperatures will reach or exceed 25
degrees Celsius across southeastern Kansas and portions of
western Missouri.
Conditional climatology of 850 temperatures in this range would
suggest that high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s
appear quite likely as we get into next week. This is supported by
the CPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 Day Outlooks which indicate a strong
signal for above normal temperatures and below normal
precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022
KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A few showers/storms are ongoing, very
isolated east of KSGF. Otherwise VFR to start, though some
overnight fog may develop in some areas where the sky can clear
and recent rainfall has occurred.
A storm complex or clusters of storms over the High Plains will
move east into the area during the late night period 08z-12z.
Some wind gusts, especially ahead of the storms with outflow
boundaries will be possible. Showers/storms are expected to shift
east of the area late in the period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA