Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/07/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
633 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 The forecast remains on track this evening with a slow moving band of light rain still continuing to try to overcome drier air in the east. Thunderstorms appear that they will remain west of this forecast area this evening. Make a few slight adjustments to sky grids to increase cloud cover tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Scattered showers off and on with cooler than average temperatures continue for tonight through Tuesday. Dry weather is expected for Wednesday with a warm up by the end of the week. Main concern in the short term is dealing with the moisture aloft along with dry air at at the surface, which makes it a challenge when it comes to forecasting pops, mainly for the rest of the evening into early am. This is mainly across our central and eastern CWA. Deterministic models at 500mb show a stationary low continuing to spin over Ontario which will finally start to push east towards the end of the week. Another low is positioned off the coast of Alaska that will that also stay pretty stationary. The ridge, that was positioned in between these lows to our west, has flattened leading to more a zonal flow that looks to continue into early Wednesday. Another ridge to the west of us will start to amplify mid week. Within this flow through late Tuesday, shortwave energy continues from west to east which will help aid in chances for precipitation/ continuing moisture aloft. At the surface, a low is positioned over northwest NE into western SD and a surface front continues to push towards the east/southeast through the evening which will make winds out of the north/northeast across the central-eastern CWA and more easterly in the western CWA. Winds will turn more out of the northwest behind the system early Wednesday before it pushes off to the east and a high will start to move in from the northwest. With this synoptic setup, CAMs indicates scattered rain showers continuing to push through west to east into tonight through the overnight hours. Although Bufkit soundings across the CWA indicates moist air aloft, drier air is in place across the central/eastern CWA at the surface. So some of these rain showers(not all) may evaporate before hitting the ground(virga). Hence why pops are only slight-chance. As for Tuesday morning and during the day, very popcorn like showers so slight-chances of pops again across the region, very hit and miss. Towards the afternoon/evening we are seeing better moisture towards the sfc (Rap Bufkit). More rain showers should develop and push to the east. CAMs does indicate for late this afternoon and evening, we could see possibly some thunder (in our southern CWA) along with these rain showers mainly through the evening. HREF indicates ~500J/KG of SBCAPE/MUCAPE at most this evening in this area with HRRR indicating even lower amounts. This indicates maybe some thunder and lightning. There seems to be a northern push of this slight instability for Tuesday afternoon and evening (along with gustier wind speeds aloft), which could lead to more of a widespread thunder chance across the CWA with the rain. No severe weather is anticipated in our CWA tonight/overnight. There is a marginal risk for our southern counties Tuesday, according to the SPC. QPF amounts fairly light ranging from a trace to 0.29 of an inch through 00Z Wednesday. (Higher localized rainfall amounts could be higher with pockets of heavier rain or thunderstorms). Cool temps overnight again with lows in the upper 40s in the lower 50s. Similar highs again for Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures in our northwestern counties. Highs will be in mid to upper 60s into the lower 70s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 The upper pattern over the long term will favor a slowly progressive positive PNA pattern over the CONUS. the PNA pattern defining a western CONUS mid level ridge and downstream eastern CONUS trof. Energy riding the northwest flow over the region will contribute to some rain chances during the period, mainly Thursday/Thursday night, and again late in the weekend. For Thursday/Thursday night a nice looking pv anomaly tracks southeast from western SD, southeast toward eastern Nebraska. The activity on Thursday/Thursday night should favor non-severe given a lack of instability/moisture. For the weekend convection chances become tougher to figure out. On the one hand, LLM and instability are building over especially the western half of SD. On the other hand, H7 temps are pushing +11C or higher over much of the region, suggesting a cap is possible. NBM kept pops down in the slight chc range, which is probably good for now considering the potential of an elevated EML advecting east over the forecast area. As for temps. they`ll likely be a bit below normal until the weekend, when they`ll likely go above seasonal norms per 2m/h85 temp anomaly data from the GEFS/EPS. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will fall as MVFR cigs move over the region from late tonight into Tuesday morning. Showers will continue to push slowly east this evening though thunderstorms are expected to remain west of the taf sites today. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wise SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM...TDK AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
628 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 605 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled early for Niobrara, Goshen, Banner, and Scotts Bluff County this evening. Thunderstorms have been located further north and east into central Nebraska and southern SD this afternoon. An isolated strong or severe storm is still possible over the northern NE panhandle, so will keep the watch going for the Chadron, Harrison, and Alliance areas for now. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Forecast challenges deal with severe thunderstorms today and Tuesday. Currently...Stationary front lays across central nebraska...northwest to near Rapid City...into central Montana this afternoon. To the south of this front...dewpoints are in the mid to upper 40s across our Wyoming zones...with upper 40s in the southern panhandle and mid 50s up in the northern panhandle. SPC`s EMC RAP guidance on the mesoanalysis page showing surface based CAPE around 1500-2000J/KG. Good 0-6km shear across our northern zones with 50-60kts analyzed. 40-45kts observed across our southern zones. MUCAPE pretty low across Wyoming...near 2000 J/KG across the Panhandle. Upper shortwave currently in northeast Wyoming as seen on IR imagery riding southeast along the front early this afternoon. Latest HRRR showing bulk of convection occurring this afternoon across Rapid City`s CWA...moving southeast into central Nebraska this evening. There are a few storms forecast to develop on our side of the CWA towards 00Z. SPC`s latest SWOMCD predicting a watch likely over the northern Nebraska Panhandle within the coming hour. Boundary sags south into the central CWA this evening as that upper shortwave tracks across our eastern zones. This could prolonged convection into the late evening hours before easing. Front shifts east Tuesday with less convection. Still a chance for severe storms in the Panhandle for Tuesday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 400 AM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022 The extended forecast will transition from weak zonal flow aloft to northwest flow aloft. This transition to northwest flow aloft will allow for warmer temperatures to propagate into the area each day for the extended forecast. This is also a classic pattern for numerous shortwave disturbances to propagate along the upper level H5 flow, bringing the opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Previous model runs over the past couple of days have trended toward a more dry pattern this weekend, but with the continued northwest flow aloft being present now being advertised with additional shortwave activity, temperatures may not be as warm as originally forecast this weekend. Multiple shortwaves will be embedded within the upper level H5 northwest flow between Wednesday evening and early next week. We can expect afternoon showers and thundershowers to develop each afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes. Localized areas may see some potential for strong to severe convection to be possible, especially by Thursday. Thursday may be the best opportunity for scattered to numerous showers and thundershowers east of the Laramie Range to occur for this week. The next opportunities for strong to potentially severe thunderstorm activity are on Sunday and Monday. As the upper level ridging amplifies across the Intermountain West by the end of this week into next weekend, we can expect a gradual rise in temperatures to much above average readings. 700mb temperatures during the weekend will range from +14C to +20C, depending on which deterministic model you interpolate, which will most certainly push afternoon highs at the surface into the 80s and 90s for most areas east of the Laramie Range. The main change between 24 hours previous to now is that the GFS and Canadian are introducing cooler temperatures aloft at 700mb by 0Z Monday in response to afternoon convection and cloud cover, which may inhibit afternoon highs on Sunday from reaching the century mark across the NE Panhandle. By Monday of next week, the upper level ridge will shift to the east over the Great Lakes region. This will allow the upper level flow to shift to a more progressive longwave trough pattern over the Intermountain West and Central Plains. With the diffluent flow aloft being progged to occur across our cwa, we may have an opportunity to receive scattered to numerous rain showers and thundershowers as a cold FROPA may push through the region. Upper level flow shifts to a more zonal pattern by the middle of next week, and mild to warm temperatures are anticipated to persist across the region during that time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 521 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Wyoming TAFS...VFR, except for MVFR at Cheyenne from 08Z to 14Z. Wind gusts to 35 knots at all terminals until 04Z, then gusts to 30 knots after 16Z Tuesday. Nebraska TAFS...VFR, except for IFR or MVFR from 08Z to 15Z. Wind gusts to 22 knots at Chadron, Alliance and Sidney until 03Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Unsettled weather the next couple days as a stalled out frontal system lays across southwestern South Dakota into northeastern Wyoming. Northwest upper windflow will steer any storms developing along this front to the southeast with showers and thunderstorms mainly east of the Laramie Range today. This front shifts east Tuesday with decreasing chances for storms Tuesday. Wednesday looks completely dry across southeast Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle. Warming temperatures for the end of the week. Could see critical afternoon humidity across Carbon County Thursday and Friday...but with green weather conditions expected to be low. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...TJT SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
559 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 103 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 A weak area of high pressure at the surface will move across western Kansas today. RAP and NAM have been in fairly good agreement throughout the morning with convection being possible west and northwest of this weak anticyclone given late day heating and improving 0-1km moisture convergence in these locations after 3-4pm. Should any isolated storm develop in these areas they will be capable of becoming severe with large hail being the initial hazard. 0-6km shear increasing late day and given mid level lapse range it appears that hail up to 2 will be possible from any discrete supercell that may develop. A better chance for convection will accompany an upper level disturbance which at 17z appears to be located over northern Utah and was located near the RAP right entrance region of the 250mb jet. Following the RAP 250mb right entrance region/weak 400mb PVU this disturbance will move into northeast Colorado this evening and then cross western Kansas during the overnight hours. The enhanced lift develop ahead of this upper wave combined with the improving 0-1km moisture convergence and mid level instability will provide a better opportunity for convection over eastern Colorado after 00z Wednesday with these storms then tracking east across southwest Kansas overnight. Risk of large hail will be possible early this Tuesday evening with these developing storms also but after sunset the risk should begin to shift to strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall. These storms that may produce periods of heavy rainfall are currently expected to track over areas that have not received much rainfall from the past several storm systems so the flooding currently does not appear to be an issue tonight. Ponding of water in poor drainage areas can not be ruled out. Convection will be tapering off late tonight/early Tuesday as an upper level trough exits western Kansas. As this upper level trough exits western Kansas our next upper level trough/500mb vort lobe will move across Wyoming and begin to approach western Kansas late day. A moist southeasterly flow will also return by late day ahead of this approaching upper wave and given the heating/instability forecast by 00z Wednesday the chance for thunderstorms will be on the increase late day/early Tuesday night. The better chances for afternoon storms will be across eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas with these storms then spreading eastward across all of western Kansas early Tuesday night. At this time will also favor the best chance for convection to be located north and east of Dodge City given the improving 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis near the northern edge of the 8 to 12C temperature gradient and current forecast track of the 500mb vort lobe. At this time Hail greater than 2 inches will also be a concern, especially early in the event, given the 0-6km shear and mid level instability. This hail risk should decrease through the evening with heavy rain and gusty winds becoming the main hazards. Later shifts will need to monitor the heavy rain potential from these storms Tuesday night given the rainfall that some locations have received over the past few days. Highs 80s are expected on Tuesday based on the cooler 900mb to 850mb temperatures forecast from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 103 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 On Wednesday an upper level ridge will begin to build across the Rockies as the next upper level disturbance begins to work its way into the Central Rockies. The ECMWF does hint that a few weaker upper level disturbances will be present late day across New Mexico and/or the Texas panhandle. Given late day instability and any subtle wave rippling eastwards towards southwest Kansas could easily result in some scattered thunderstorms near the Oklahoma border. Any storm that does develop will be capable of producing heavy rainfall given the high precipitable water forecast south of Dodge City. As for temperatures on Wednesday it looks like highs will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s based on the location of the surface boundary south of the Oklahoma border, 850mb temperature forecasts at 00z Thursday and east northeast winds advecting slightly cooler temperatures into southwest Kansas. Thursday and Friday the upper level ridge over the Rockies will build slowly eastward into the Western High Plains as an upper high develops just south of the four corners area. Several upper level disturbances will move through this upper ridge and move out into the central plain and with each upper level disturbance there will be a chance for thunderstorms across western Kansas. Timing of any subtle upper wave late week will be difficult to pin down but at this time it appears that these waves will cross the Central Plains late day/overnight each day. Also given the slow eastward progression of the upper ridge the track of the Thursday system appears to bring with it the best chance for widespread precipitation to western Kansas while the Friday/early Saturday upper level system appears to focus the better lift across central Kansas. In addition to the increasing chances for precipitation on Thursday given the passage of the upper level trougha cold front will also move south across western Kansas late day/Thursday night. This will usher in some cooler air into southwest Kansas on Friday but these cool temperatures (70s/80s) will be brief given the westerly downslope flow developing and warming 850mb temperatures forecast across western kansas this upcoming weekend period and early next week. Highs in the mid to upper 90s not out of the question on Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 A complex of storms will be exiting eastern Colorado and going into western Kansas this evening and thunderstorms will be possible for all airport terminals after 01Z. Tempos have been included for generally 03-09Z as we could see two rounds of storms moving in from Colorado into western Kansas during the overnight. The thunderstorms could produce brief downburst winds of over 50 kts. Most of the activity should subside by 12Z and cloud ceilings should generally become VFR through 00Z Tuesday evening. Winds in general should stay 12 kts or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 61 83 59 79 / 80 20 50 10 GCK 60 81 59 77 / 80 30 40 10 EHA 59 79 59 78 / 40 30 60 20 LBL 62 80 61 80 / 60 30 50 10 HYS 60 84 60 77 / 70 20 60 10 P28 65 82 64 80 / 40 20 50 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Tatro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
653 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday/ Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Key messaging highlights: * Strong storms this evening southeast, and possibly again late tomorrow west The short term pattern will remain active with strong to severe storms into southeast Iowa through at least late afternoon, and then again late Tuesday as our current quasi-linear pattern begins to amplify a bit more to end the week. At onset this afternoon, the ongoing complex continues to hold steady or slowly intensify and seemingly outperform parameter space expectations. RAP projections keep MLCAPEs uncapped at 1000-1500 J/kg, but looking at modified soundings with current obs in the airmass ahead suggests MLCAPEs are likely well over 2000 J/kg with dewpoints higher than anticipated. Effective shear is <30kts, but the cluster is obviously modulating beyond that, possibly due to stronger mid level shear. 0-3km CAPEs are elevated as well, >100 J/kg, so large hail and damaging winds are still possible, and a few funnel clouds or weak QLCS tornadoes cannot be ruled out even with marginal 0-3km shear. Storm motions of around 35kts should preclude any flash flood potential, but brief locally heavy rains are possible as well. This should all exit the forecast area by early evening however with subsidence and the loss of convergence behind the weak surface front. Our break tonight into early tomorrow won`t last long however with our attention turning to the current PV stream entering OR. This is expected to reach SD late Tuesday increasing forcing through the MO Valley. Northeast surface flow should push the instability axis south and west of the forecast area, but MUCAPEs should at least approach 1000 J/kg west by afternoon. The concerning feature will be increasing deep shear as the speed max associated with the aforementioned PV trough pushes into the Plains, elevating effective shear to 50+kts, including quasi- linear elongated hodographs. The 12Z HREF hints that some of this shear may be realized even considering the marginal instability with a few recent members showing isolated updraft helicity tracks across southwest Iowa, and suggesting a few strong to severe storms and supercells are possible with wind and hail the primary threats by the early evening hours. This would be in addition to lower stability precipitation farther north and east closer to the attendant short wave and associated thermodynamic and kinematic forcing. While the severe weather potential would certainly be less, much of the deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests 0.50-1.0" amounts are possible into Tuesday Night before the forcing exits toward the MS Valley toward daybreak. && .LONG TERM.../Tuesday night through Monday/ Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Key messaging highlights: -Additional storm chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday then again on Thursday into Friday -Near to below temperatures will continue until the end of the weekend. An upper-level ridge will attempt to build up in the northwest CONUS, but will still not reach Iowa due to the current blocking pattern from a closed low in Canada. Additional small waves of energy will eject down and bring more storm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as well as Thursday night into Friday. The greater forcing will move out on Wednesday morning and high pressure will bring in a brief dry spell before additional rain and storms Thursday night into Friday. Deterministic runs are differing on the extent of rain into Iowa with this system. Aside from the consensus of the anticipated MCS to the southwest, the GFS and EC have an area of elevated forcing over portions of northwest Iowa where they initiate additional precip. Again, the question will be the presence of elevated instability overnight with lapse rates near 6C/km on the Iowa-Nebraska border. Deep layer shear looks to be near favorable. There is still a difference in timing and location between the GFS and EC, but both models show 6 hour QPF around 0.6" overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Synoptic flow will become more northwest with the passing of Thursday night`s system and the building of the ridge to the west. Iowa will be more on the cold sector of this ridge, keeping temperatures near or below average until the ridge moves east this weekend. Additional rainfall chances are possible towards the end of the weekend. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening/ Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 VFR conditions have returned to almost all of the area behind the front/thunderstorm cluster that has moved off to the east. Winds expected to decrease and become light and variable overnight into tomorrow afternoon before picking up some and becoming out of the south. Skies have started to clear in parts of central Iowa with additional cloud cover moving in from the west, though expected to remain mid to high clouds overnight. Guidance starting to hint at areas of fog with the light winds if skies can clear, especially across northern Iowa, between roughly 10-14Z. Will continue to monitor fog potential for inclusion in next issuance if impacts to KFOD/KMCW seem more likely. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Small LONG TERM...Small/Jimenez AVIATION...KCM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1134 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 .AVIATION... Ongoing passage of a cold front over Michigan and remnant convection across northern Indiana, derived from a shortwave, will work in tangent to produce widespread rain across all TAF sites through the mid to late morning hours. Some rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out as weak elevated instability holds over the region, however, instability will be waning as we progress through the night. Radar and satellite evidence suggests the Metro terminals will have the better chances to see some isolated thunderstorms, connected to a pocket of better instability. Rain activity may be moderate to heavy at times, with downpours drawing visibilities down to IFR at times. High confidence also remains regarding cig heights ranging between IFR-MVFR with rain activity. While rain is ongoing, the surface cold front will pass from northwest to southeast now until roughly 12Z. Wind direction will veer from southwest to northwest after the frontal passage. For DTW...An enhanced pocket of instability has produced isolated thunderstorm activity within the vicinity of the Metro airport. Confidence remains low regarding thunderstorms impacting the terminal as instability wanes, however, the low-end chance for thunderstorm activity will hold through 08Z. The other main impacts will be heavy downpours and cig heights, both lowering to or close to IFR with observed rain. A surface cold front will quickly shift wind direction from southwest to northwest around 11/12Z. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for thunderstorm chances overnight. * High for ceiling 5000 ft or less through late Tuesday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 DISCUSSION... Light showers and thick canopy of clouds have kept temperatures and instability in check, and SPC mesoscale analysis at 18z shows just weak instability over southeast Michigan. However, there is a tight instability gradient right by the southern Michigan border, and some of this instability/moisture will work into southeast Michigan, and a marginal risk of severe storms (wind gusts to 60 mph) south of an Adrian-Port Huron line into early this evening still appears valid as 14z Rap increasings MLcapes to around 1500 J/kg. Fortunately, the developing nocturnal southwest low level jet (45+ knots at 850 MB) should reside over the eastern Great Lakes by midnight. Thus, the intensity and coverage of rainfall tonight is still in question, as the upper wave moving into western Kentucky is also factoring into the equation and causing some disruption in the moisture transport. Still plenty of mixed signals in where heaviest rainfall will fall, as convective feedback (especially over Ohio) leading to plenty of implied hot spots in NAM/CAM solutions, but the overall consensus is for just scattered heavy rainfall areas, with enough movement to help limit the totals. Interestingly, with the trailing Midwest upper wave/deformation and associated surface reflection moving through early Tuesday morning, the north half of the CWA may actually get into the heavier rainfall (1-2 inches)/see 12z ARW/regional Gem. However, those locations would be able to handle that amount of rain better than the Detroit urban area, and not planning on extending the areal flood watch and will just continue with the present outline. Confidence remains low however, as there is still plenty of solutions indicating less than one inch of rainfall tonight. The shortwave trough axis should be east of the Central Great Lakes around or shortly after the noon hour on Tuesday, setting us up for a dry afternoon with the westerly confluent upper level flow and surface high building into Lower Michigan through Tuesday night night. There is a low potential of radiation fog if we don`t significantly dry out the soaked ground Tuesday afternoon, as the good radiators likely head to around 50 degrees for lows early Wednesday morning. An extended period of normal to slightly below normal temperatures is expected as the the large upper level low/trough over Eastern Canada will be in no hurry to exit through the work week, and likely holds on into the Weekend. In fact, the coldest air (1000-500 MB thicknesses around 550 DAM) looks to be around for the weekend, as Pacific energy tracks through on the backside of the trough. The cooler cyclonic flow will provide a couple opportunities for showers as a few upper level disturbances rotate around the parent circulation. Outside of the wave moving through Wednesday, the other disturbances look small and any periods of showers will be short lived and mostly dependent on diurnal instability. MARINE... Widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to be possible across the bulk of the central Great Lakes through tonight as a slow moving cold front drops through the region. Best chances for stronger thunderstorms this evening will be mainly focused over the southern Great Lakes. Front is slow to clear out of the area Tuesday morning maintaining shower potential from central Lake Huron south- while a thunderstorm can`t be ruled out, potential is low. Brief period of high pressure then expands across the region latter half of Tuesday through the first half of Wednesday before another low tracking through the Ohio Valley brings chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening. Best potential looking to be over the southern half of the region. HYDROLOGY... Excessive rainfall remains possible as showers and thunderstorms fill in across Lower Michigan through tonight. A round of scattered thunderstorms toward the Ohio border through mid evening is followed by a greater coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms just after midnight tonight through a little past sunrise Tuesday. Widespread rainfall totals reach the 0.75 to 1.75 inch inch range with localized amounts possibly reaching around 3 inches before the system exits Tuesday morning. A flood watch remains in effect for areas generally along and south of an Adrian to Port Huron line. Areas outside of the flood watch/Detroit Metro area should be able to handle 1 to 2 inches of rain with just minor flooding of the prone areas with rises on creeks and streams tonight into Tuesday. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ063-069-070-075-076-082- 083. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....DG DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......KDK HYDROLOGY....SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
843 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Subtropical upper ridging continues to strengthen across Mexico and the desert southwest, with height rises today into tomorrow across TX. At the moment, RAP analysis and sfc observations indicate a weak surface low is centered to the north of San Angelo. Model guidance suggests this will remain pretty stationary, perhaps retrograding slightly westward and losing definition through the short term period. Southerly winds will continue in the 10-15 mph range and locally higher, with gusts of 15-30 mph this afternoon. With a high sun angle, dry soils, and strong thermal ridging, hot conditions result. Forecast highs today of 97 to 109 prompted a Heat Advisory through 8pm this evening for most areas. Tonight we`ll see some low cloud development for some areas mainly central and east after 1am, but again cloud cover will scatter out quickly on Tuesday morning. After lows in the 70s, highs will again soar into the 96-107 degree range, warmest south and west as usual. At the moment, we are going to hold off on determining if and where a Heat Advisory would be needed for tomorrow, as the heat has been well messaged to this point and official criteria are only likely to be met in scattered locations like Llano and Pleasanton. At the very least, an SPS will be issued later this evening or tonight. Tomorrow night will be another wash, rinse, repeat with low clouds developing late except along the Rio Grande and lows in the 70s. Record High (6/7) Forecast High Austin Bergstrom 98 (2018) 101 Austin Mabry 100 (2011) 101 San Antonio 103 (1989) 102 Del Rio 108 (1974) 107 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Hot and dry weather conditions are expected for the long term forecast period. The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the local area bringing near to record high temperatures for the next several days. Highs will be ranging from 100 to 105 degrees from Wednesday into Friday. Heat index values are likely to run from 103 to 106 degrees across most areas with the exception of the Hill Country for the same time period. Heat Advisories or Special Weather Statements are likely to be issued for parts of the local area the next several days with heat safety messaging. There is a "cool" time window on Thursday as a weak cold front washes out while moving over central Texas and the northern part of the Hill Country. Between clouds and lack of sunshine across some areas across south central Texas expect temperatures to be one or two degrees cooler than Wednesday. By Friday, the subtropical ridge takes control once again with the trend continuing through the upcoming weekend, with model guidance in good agreement on temperatures around the 101 and up to 107 degrees and no rain. Therefore, the heat continues to affect our area for the upcoming weekend and looks like to stay into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with breezy southerly winds. MVFR ceilings will develop across the I-35 corridor and impact AUS/SAT/SSF beginning between 07z-08z. These lower ceilings will stick around through 14z when they should mix out and return all of South Central Texas to VFR skies. Winds tomorrow afternoon will be breezy out of the south once more with gusts up to 22 knots. DRT should be VFR through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 101 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 107 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 105 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 99 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 105 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bandera- Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Dimmit-Edwards-Frio- Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano- Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Wilson- Zavala. && $$ Short-Term...KCW Long-Term...17 Aviation...Treadway
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
602 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022 A relatively weak 100kt jet streak is slowly entering the forecast area and providing some divergence aloft. Daytime heating and plenty of available moisture will further destabilize the atmosphere this atmosphere and evening allowing thunderstorms and showers to continue. Some small hail is possible with the stronger storms as well as some gusty winds. Some cells yesterday produced some heavier rain that actually reached the surface (shocker) so expect that some brief, heavy rain will be possible again this afternoon and evening. The showers and storms will be mainly confined to areas north of the I-70 corridor though a few pop-ups can`t be ruled out over the San Juans. Speaking of, both the HRRR and NAMNEST are showing a weak line of storms possibly moving over the Delta and Montrose areas around 6PM before heading into the West Elks. Since both models have initialized very well this afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised if that happens. By this evening, the core of higher speeds aloft will have already moved to the Plains and as daytime heating subsides, convection will take a downturn though a few showers will likely persist over the higher terrain. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday though areas north will be similar to yesterday, if not a few degrees cooler, due to cloud cover and precip. For Tuesday, zonal flow remains over the area with some height rises expected in the afternoon as a low amplitude ridge quickly builds in. This ridge will quickly break down however as generally zonal flow sets up across the area. Precip will stay over the Front Range while we will remain dry. We`ll see plenty of sunshine as temperatures start their upward trend with highs across the region running 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal values. Unfortunately, this trend continues into the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Models are in agreement with a general zonal flow across the Western States through the end of the week keeping the region mostly dry. High pressure building to the south will increase 500 mb heights to 591 dm Friday and Saturday to give us the warmest temperatures yet this year with the lower valleys reaching into the mid to upper 90`s. There is some indication of a shortwave moving through the ridge Thursday popping off some mountain showers, but these will most likely stay east of the Divide where they can tap the moisture along the Front Range. By Sunday, a deep trough starts dropping into the Pacific Northwest, increasing the southwest gradient winds across eastern Utah and Western Colorado. With the dry, hot weather in the area, critical fire weather conditions are the main concern for much of the region beginning Sunday and continuing into next week. Stay tuned for the latest forecasts going into this weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 602 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022 A downward trend in shower and thunderstorm coverage will continue through sunset. The biggest threat has been gusty outflow winds from the storms...the strongest which is moving through Montrose at the top of the hour. VFR and light winds will dominate much of the overnight and morning forecast with breezy conditions returning again for Tuesday afternoon. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1100 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 1059 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 We will continue to maintain high chances for precipitation across our Southern CWA tonight, towards I-94 especially. That said, it appears the focus of the heaviest precipitation is going to miss us just to the south across Northern Illinois and Northern Indiana. A zone of convergence near the southern edge of the showers and thunderstorms looks to be the focus for the rest of the night. The HRRR 850mb low level jet forecast has the convergence on the north side of LLJ remaining south of the MI/IN line. It does nose towards Calhoun and Jackson counties for a few hours between 03z and 06z or so and it appears we are seeing that trend right now. The mid level vort max remains on an eastward track centered near Janesville in Wisconsin along the WI/IL state line. It is conceivable that convection reinvigorates as this vort moves our direction overnight. The better bet though is that the heavier rains, given current trends look to place the heaviest precipitation just south of our area. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 - Expect Some Rain Tonight /Thunderstorm Threat Low There have been many questions about the precipitation event today into tonight. It now seems MCV, which was forecast to happen did actually happen but it was not strong enough to develop a deep surface low as some of the models had suggested yesterday. So what is really happening now is northern stream shortwave, which brought over an inch of rain to the area just north of Route 10 overnight into early this morning is pulling out. That is creating and area of sinking air behind it. That in turn is killing the rain area that has been trying to move across lower Michigan during the daylight hours of today. So, most of the area has had a few hundredths of an inch but not more than that. The threat of thunderstorms is just about gone for this afternoon there is to much mid cloud to allow enough warming, put there is that subsidence from the departing northern stream shortwave too. What remains is the MCV over MO and another much smaller one over Iowa. However the Iowa MCV is on the exit region of that 110 knot Pacific Ocean origin polar jet core. So, I believe we will see that being what will bring us the rain overnight. There is major questions as to the track of the heavier rain. The GFS is much farther north and I would disregard that solution for that reason but one could argue that the digging of the next upstream system will allow that leading jet segment to lift farther north as the GFS is suggesting. One way or the other and area of significant rain showers will cross Lower Michigan mostly during the early morning hours of Tuesday. I could still see some locations getting a half inch of rain. It does not look as good for rainfall amounts over an inch like we were thinking earlier. - Quick Clearly by Midday Tuesday Once the system moves through late tonight we get some weak shortwave ridging should result in clearing by midday. We do get some decent cold advection and a push of dry air to help the cause for bringing the sunshine into our area by early afternoon. - Several systems in a row into next week then dry for awhile The dry weather does not last long through. The next upstream system follows for Wednesday. However, unlike the current system the system behind that has a larger wavelength. That allows this next shortwave to dig farther south instead of lifting northward like the current one does. Also it is rotating around very much blocked upper low over Hudson Bay. This time we will be deeper into the cold air aloft and not have much warm air at the surface (surely not much sun to heat the air) so this should mostly just be rain showers even through our grids show otherwise. Instability in negligible. The next system upstream gets pulled into this Hudson Bay system and that pulls the Hudson Bay low nearly as far south as Lake Superior by Saturday morning. So, likely any showers from the Wednesday system should end by early Thursday. There is enough instability for convection Thursday afternoon over the eastern CWA even through our forecast grids show it dry, likely it will not be, there will be scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. That digging third shortwave for Friday will bring more instability for more afternoon convection. With the upper low so close, showers may linger into Saturday. We should then get 3 to 4 days of dry weather with a significant warm up as a major shortwave ridge moves through our area. Stormy weather will return by the middle of next week and it will cool off again. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 827 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Aviation conditions will deteriorate through the evening and into the overnight. By 06Z, widespread IFR conditions are expected to be in place due to low ceilings developing rapidly this evening and lowering to below 1,000 feet. These low ceilings will persist through the night and continue into the morning flight take off times between 09Z and 13Z. The low ceilings are associated with a wave of low pressure that will work through Southern Lower Michigan tonight from west to east. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the wave of low pressure tonight. Conditions will improve rapidly on Tuesday as the wave of low pressure moves off to the east. Ceilings and visibilities should improve back to VFR between 14Z and 18Z on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 321 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Winds and waves will remain below small craft criteria into this coming weekend. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Duke DISCUSSION...WDM AVIATION...Duke MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
736 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION... Issued at 726 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Storms have diminished somewhat from their earlier peak this afternoon. This is consistent with what the HRRR has been predicting during the last several cycles. The evening sounding from OHX shows a nearly saturated column, and also some instability (tall, thin CAPE with modest lapse rates). There is also some low-level wind shear, as the 0-3 km SRH clocks in at 191. A weak upper trough is in the process of rotating through Middle Tennessee this evening, which will put us under a northwest flow aloft later on and this may contribute to some additional destabilization. The HRRR does show considerable re-development of storms in Middle Tennessee toward midnight, with widespread convection lasting through the night and into the morning. So we cannot "stand down" despite the current lull on the radar scope. No forecast changes are planned for now. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Showers and storms continue to move east into the mid state ahead of the upper shortwave trough that will bring additional showers and storms through the overnight hours. CAPE values will be highest across the western half of the area, and deep layer shear continues to trend upward this afternoon into the evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. Low level shear is strong as well, so cant rule out tornado potential this afternoon and evening either. Ahead of a weak cold front associated with this upper wave tonight, another band of showers and storms will be possible. Some instability does look to remain overnight, so strong to severe storm potential will remain, but also added moisture with high PWAT values around 2 inches will allow for a flooding threat as well. CAMs are highlighting areas along and north of I-40 for heavy rain potential, but everywhere in the mid state will need to be weather aware this afternoon through tomorrow morning for flooding potential with heavy rain, and strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and maybe even a tornado or two. Another weaker shortwave will move through during the day Tuesday, but it looks like we will have a short break in the rain Tuesday morning. Diurnal heating as well as the approaching wave will increase precip chances during the afternoon and into the evening. Strong to severe storms may be possible if instability can increase during the afternoon hours, but that will depend on how much coverage and how long the rain lasts during the morning hours after sunrise Tuesday morning. Another shortwave will be right on the heels of the earlier Tuesday shortwave trough, so rain chances look to continue Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Wednesday looks to start with ongoing showers and a few thunderstorms as the shortwave approaches and the Midwest broad trough continues to develop and swing eastward. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday still looks to be during the afternoon to early evening, yet again with some instability and shear in place, so more strong to severe storms will be possible then as well. Drier conditions should move in on Thursday, maybe with isolated showers in the south and east, as northwest flow moves in aloft. That wont last long though as a strong shortwave moves through the upper flow and brings showers and thunderstorms in Friday afternoon and evening, possibly carrying into the early morning hours Saturday. Most of the instability stays to our south, but if that CAPE creeps northward with the next model runs through the week, we could have another strong to severe storm threat Friday afternoon and evening. Saturday may be dry for the northwest, but some lingering showers could hold in the south and east during the day. Northwest flow and an approaching ridge will start off Sunday and next week, with a much welcomed drier period. The upper high in the Plains does not move as far east as previous runs, so the hot temps stay off to our west, but still expecting highs in the 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 Waves of showers and thunderstorms will move across Middle TN and affect the TAF sites. VFR will go down to MVFR/IFR in and around thunderstorms. In addition MVFR CIGs expected around sunrise due to low clouds...especially where rain was received this afternoon evening and in and around low lying areas and bodies of water. More showers and thunderstorms expected again tomorrow afternoon and evening. Winds will be southerly overnight and swing around to the southwest tomorrow after 15Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 87 68 85 / 90 60 60 90 Clarksville 67 85 67 84 / 90 50 60 80 Crossville 64 79 64 79 / 80 70 60 90 Columbia 67 87 67 84 / 90 60 60 80 Cookeville 66 82 67 81 / 90 60 60 90 Jamestown 63 80 63 80 / 90 60 60 90 Lawrenceburg 67 86 67 83 / 80 50 60 80 Murfreesboro 67 87 68 85 / 90 50 60 90 Waverly 66 85 67 83 / 90 60 60 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnwell LONG TERM....Barnwell AVIATION.....12 UPDATE.......Rose
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
628 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 ...AVIATION UPDATE... Key Messages: 1) Isolated thunderstorms remain possible into early this evening across south-central Missouri. 2) A decaying complex of storms may impact southeast KS and western MO late tonight and Tuesday morning. 3) Scattered storms expected Tuesday afternoon with a Marginal Risk for severe storms and flooding. 4) Potential for a stronger complex of storms and a flooding risk from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 5) Another complex of storms possible from late Thursday night into Friday morning. 6) Drying out for the weekend. .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 The remnants of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to track east across eastern Missouri into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Enough low-level convergence and uncapped instability will exist for isolated thunderstorms across south-central Missouri into early this evening. There remains a Marginal Risk for severe storms generally along and east of a Winona to West Plains line, but most storms will remain below severe limits. By later this evening, another complex of storms is expected to develop in the central High Plains and begin to track southeast towards the Missouri Ozarks. The southern flank of this complex may then peel southeast into Oklahoma into an area of better instability as the nose of a low-level jet refocuses and noses towards the Oklahoma City metro. It is then unclear how the northern extent of the complex will evolve in terms of longevity and track. Instability will certainly be weaker across eastern Kansas and western Missouri later tonight with RAP forecast soundings indicating MUCAPE values in the 1200 to 1600 J/kg range (versus values of 2000 to 2500 J/kg across Oklahoma). CAMs are fairly consistent in depicting a weakening trend as the complex reaches southeast Kansas and western Missouri. However, CAMs differ on how far east the decaying activity will get late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Regardless, the threat for impactful weather (severe storms and flooding) looks very low at this juncture. One other item to discuss for tonight is fog potential. There are several models (and MOS guidance) pinging on lower visibilities with some even indicating dense fog formation. However, there should be an increase in high clouds later tonight which would tend to mitigate fog development. We have elected to keep fog out of the forecast for now given the HREF depiction of increasing high clouds. This is certainly something we will continue to monitor. Sensible weather for Tuesday will then be heavily dependent on what happens with that decaying MCS. It is quite possible that we have a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) that is drifting east across the area. There will also be a surface front that stalls out in a west to east fashion somewhere near or just north of the Highway 60 corridor. Both of these features may serve as triggers for scattered afternoon thunderstorms in what should be a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPEs of 2000 to 2500 J/kg). With deep layer shear values of around 30 knots, a few of these storms will have the potential to reach low-end severe criteria. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas in a Marginal Risk for severe storms on Tuesday. We will also have to watch for the threat of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding Tuesday afternoon and evening given the slow moving nature of these focusing mechanisms. There are some fairly appreciable model spreads for high temperatures Tuesday given variance in cloud cover and precipitation coverage. We have gone with NBM deterministic numbers for now (lower 80s), however thicker cloud cover and more precipitation may keep some locations back in the middle to upper 70s. Areas that receive more sunshine will push the middle 80s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 The synoptic scale pattern will remain favorable for MCSs through midweek as convection develops across the central High Plains and congeals. The keys to where these systems develop and track (and whether or not they impact the Ozarks) remain: 1) The location of a low level baroclinic zone. 2) Where low- level jet energy can override that feature. Synoptic scale models and the tail-end of the CAMs indicate that a genesis region for Tuesday night will be across western and central Nebraska. Wind fields would favor this MCS tracking southeast into the Missouri Ozarks late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, especially if forecast MUCAPE profiles are a bit more robust as models are indicating. If this scenario indeed pans out, we will have to watch for heavy rainfall potential and the risk for locally damaging wind gusts before the MCS starts to weaken with time. The HREF probability matched means do have pockets of 6-hour rainfall amounts greater than two inches within the core of this MCS. The risk for showers and thunderstorms may then persist into later Wednesday as a cold front pushes south through the area. That front will make it far enough south of the Missouri Ozarks to bring a brief quiet stretch of weather from Wednesday night into Thursday. High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will remain near or slightly below normal for this time of year with highs fairly close to the 80 degree mark. The WPC Cluster Analysis Tool then gives us high confidence that the upper level pattern will begin to transition to a slightly higher amplitude from Thursday into Friday with a ridge beginning to build up over the western CONUS. As this transition occurs, ensembles indicate short wave energy traversing what will be a northwest flow aloft over the central U.S. This will likely result in yet another complex of thunderstorms developing across the central Plains and tracking through the region (including the Missouri Ozarks) from late Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, a cold front associated with that short wave energy should make pretty good progress south towards the Gulf Coast states given the amplifying northwest flow aloft. This should set the stage for a dry weekend and near normal temperatures. Looking ahead, the Climate Prediction Center is indicating a decent signal for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation as we get into next week. This is backed well by both the ECMWF and Canadian Ensemble systems. The GEFS is a bit more neutral across the Ozarks when it comes to temperatures with higher positive temperature anomalies staying just west of the area across the central and southern Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 While VFR conditions are currently forecast, there is some uncertainty that may lead to changes later tonight into Tuesday morning. There is potential that a thunderstorm complex will develop from storms currently over eastern Colorado. If the complex develops and if it moves toward the area, shower and thunderstorm chances will need to be added to the forecast. If no complex develops or stays far enough away from the area to allow for clear skies late tonight, fog will be possible late tonight into Tuesday morning. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schaumann LONG TERM...Schaumann AVIATION...Titus