Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/07/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
633 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
The forecast remains on track this evening with a slow moving band
of light rain still continuing to try to overcome drier air in the
east. Thunderstorms appear that they will remain west of this
forecast area this evening. Make a few slight adjustments to sky
grids to increase cloud cover tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Scattered showers off and on with cooler than average temperatures
continue for tonight through Tuesday. Dry weather is expected for
Wednesday with a warm up by the end of the week. Main concern in the
short term is dealing with the moisture aloft along with dry air at
at the surface, which makes it a challenge when it comes to
forecasting pops, mainly for the rest of the evening into early am.
This is mainly across our central and eastern CWA.
Deterministic models at 500mb show a stationary low continuing to
spin over Ontario which will finally start to push east towards the
end of the week. Another low is positioned off the coast of Alaska
that will that also stay pretty stationary. The ridge, that was
positioned in between these lows to our west, has flattened leading
to more a zonal flow that looks to continue into early Wednesday.
Another ridge to the west of us will start to amplify mid week.
Within this flow through late Tuesday, shortwave energy continues
from west to east which will help aid in chances for precipitation/
continuing moisture aloft. At the surface, a low is positioned over
northwest NE into western SD and a surface front continues to push
towards the east/southeast through the evening which will make winds
out of the north/northeast across the central-eastern CWA and more
easterly in the western CWA. Winds will turn more out of the
northwest behind the system early Wednesday before it pushes off to
the east and a high will start to move in from the northwest.
With this synoptic setup, CAMs indicates scattered rain showers
continuing to push through west to east into tonight through the
overnight hours. Although Bufkit soundings across the CWA indicates
moist air aloft, drier air is in place across the central/eastern
CWA at the surface. So some of these rain showers(not all) may
evaporate before hitting the ground(virga). Hence why pops are only
slight-chance. As for Tuesday morning and during the day, very
popcorn like showers so slight-chances of pops again across the
region, very hit and miss. Towards the afternoon/evening we are
seeing better moisture towards the sfc (Rap Bufkit). More rain
showers should develop and push to the east. CAMs does indicate for
late this afternoon and evening, we could see possibly some thunder
(in our southern CWA) along with these rain showers mainly through
the evening. HREF indicates ~500J/KG of SBCAPE/MUCAPE at most this
evening in this area with HRRR indicating even lower amounts. This
indicates maybe some thunder and lightning. There seems to be a
northern push of this slight instability for Tuesday afternoon and
evening (along with gustier wind speeds aloft), which could lead to
more of a widespread thunder chance across the CWA with the rain. No
severe weather is anticipated in our CWA tonight/overnight. There is
a marginal risk for our southern counties Tuesday, according to the
SPC.
QPF amounts fairly light ranging from a trace to 0.29 of an inch
through 00Z Wednesday. (Higher localized rainfall amounts could be
higher with pockets of heavier rain or thunderstorms). Cool temps
overnight again with lows in the upper 40s in the lower 50s. Similar
highs again for Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures in our
northwestern counties. Highs will be in mid to upper 60s into the
lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
The upper pattern over the long term will favor a slowly progressive
positive PNA pattern over the CONUS. the PNA pattern defining a
western CONUS mid level ridge and downstream eastern CONUS trof.
Energy riding the northwest flow over the region will contribute to
some rain chances during the period, mainly Thursday/Thursday night,
and again late in the weekend. For Thursday/Thursday night a nice
looking pv anomaly tracks southeast from western SD, southeast
toward eastern Nebraska. The activity on Thursday/Thursday night
should favor non-severe given a lack of instability/moisture. For
the weekend convection chances become tougher to figure out. On the
one hand, LLM and instability are building over especially the
western half of SD. On the other hand, H7 temps are pushing +11C or
higher over much of the region, suggesting a cap is possible. NBM
kept pops down in the slight chc range, which is probably good for
now considering the potential of an elevated EML advecting east over
the forecast area. As for temps. they`ll likely be a bit below
normal until the weekend, when they`ll likely go above seasonal
norms per 2m/h85 temp anomaly data from the GEFS/EPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions will fall as MVFR cigs move over the region from
late tonight into Tuesday morning. Showers will continue to push
slowly east this evening though thunderstorms are expected to
remain west of the taf sites today.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
628 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 605 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled early for Niobrara,
Goshen, Banner, and Scotts Bluff County this evening.
Thunderstorms have been located further north and east into
central Nebraska and southern SD this afternoon. An isolated
strong or severe storm is still possible over the northern NE
panhandle, so will keep the watch going for the Chadron, Harrison,
and Alliance areas for now. Updates have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Forecast challenges deal with severe thunderstorms today and
Tuesday.
Currently...Stationary front lays across central
nebraska...northwest to near Rapid City...into central Montana
this afternoon. To the south of this front...dewpoints are in the
mid to upper 40s across our Wyoming zones...with upper 40s in the
southern panhandle and mid 50s up in the northern panhandle. SPC`s
EMC RAP guidance on the mesoanalysis page showing surface based
CAPE around 1500-2000J/KG. Good 0-6km shear across our northern
zones with 50-60kts analyzed. 40-45kts observed across our
southern zones. MUCAPE pretty low across Wyoming...near 2000 J/KG
across the Panhandle. Upper shortwave currently in northeast
Wyoming as seen on IR imagery riding southeast along the front
early this afternoon.
Latest HRRR showing bulk of convection occurring this afternoon
across Rapid City`s CWA...moving southeast into central Nebraska
this evening. There are a few storms forecast to develop on our
side of the CWA towards 00Z. SPC`s latest SWOMCD predicting a
watch likely over the northern Nebraska Panhandle within the
coming hour.
Boundary sags south into the central CWA this evening as that
upper shortwave tracks across our eastern zones. This could
prolonged convection into the late evening hours before easing.
Front shifts east Tuesday with less convection. Still a chance for
severe storms in the Panhandle for Tuesday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022
The extended forecast will transition from weak zonal flow aloft to
northwest flow aloft. This transition to northwest flow aloft will
allow for warmer temperatures to propagate into the area each day
for the extended forecast. This is also a classic pattern for
numerous shortwave disturbances to propagate along the upper level
H5 flow, bringing the opportunity for scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the forecast area. Previous model runs over the
past couple of days have trended toward a more dry pattern this
weekend, but with the continued northwest flow aloft being present
now being advertised with additional shortwave activity,
temperatures may not be as warm as originally forecast this weekend.
Multiple shortwaves will be embedded within the upper level H5
northwest flow between Wednesday evening and early next week. We can
expect afternoon showers and thundershowers to develop each
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes. Localized areas may see
some potential for strong to severe convection to be possible,
especially by Thursday. Thursday may be the best opportunity for
scattered to numerous showers and thundershowers east of the Laramie
Range to occur for this week. The next opportunities for strong to
potentially severe thunderstorm activity are on Sunday and Monday.
As the upper level ridging amplifies across the Intermountain West
by the end of this week into next weekend, we can expect a gradual
rise in temperatures to much above average readings. 700mb
temperatures during the weekend will range from +14C to +20C,
depending on which deterministic model you interpolate, which will
most certainly push afternoon highs at the surface into the 80s and
90s for most areas east of the Laramie Range. The main change
between 24 hours previous to now is that the GFS and Canadian are
introducing cooler temperatures aloft at 700mb by 0Z Monday in
response to afternoon convection and cloud cover, which may inhibit
afternoon highs on Sunday from reaching the century mark across the
NE Panhandle.
By Monday of next week, the upper level ridge will shift to the east
over the Great Lakes region. This will allow the upper level flow to
shift to a more progressive longwave trough pattern over the
Intermountain West and Central Plains. With the diffluent flow aloft
being progged to occur across our cwa, we may have an opportunity to
receive scattered to numerous rain showers and thundershowers as a
cold FROPA may push through the region. Upper level flow shifts to a
more zonal pattern by the middle of next week, and mild to warm
temperatures are anticipated to persist across the region during
that time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 521 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Wyoming TAFS...VFR, except for MVFR at Cheyenne from 08Z to 14Z.
Wind gusts to 35 knots at all terminals until 04Z, then gusts to
30 knots after 16Z Tuesday.
Nebraska TAFS...VFR, except for IFR or MVFR from 08Z to 15Z.
Wind gusts to 22 knots at Chadron, Alliance and Sidney until 03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Unsettled weather the next couple days as a stalled out frontal
system lays across southwestern South Dakota into northeastern
Wyoming. Northwest upper windflow will steer any storms developing
along this front to the southeast with showers and thunderstorms
mainly east of the Laramie Range today. This front shifts east
Tuesday with decreasing chances for storms Tuesday. Wednesday
looks completely dry across southeast Wyoming into the Nebraska
Panhandle. Warming temperatures for the end of the week. Could see
critical afternoon humidity across Carbon County Thursday and
Friday...but with green fuels...fire weather conditions expected
to be low.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
559 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
A weak area of high pressure at the surface will move across
western Kansas today. RAP and NAM have been in fairly good
agreement throughout the morning with convection being possible
west and northwest of this weak anticyclone given late day heating
and improving 0-1km moisture convergence in these locations after
3-4pm. Should any isolated storm develop in these areas they will
be capable of becoming severe with large hail being the initial
hazard. 0-6km shear increasing late day and given mid level lapse
range it appears that hail up to 2 will be possible from any
discrete supercell that may develop. A better chance for
convection will accompany an upper level disturbance which at 17z
appears to be located over northern Utah and was located near the
RAP right entrance region of the 250mb jet. Following the RAP
250mb right entrance region/weak 400mb PVU this disturbance will
move into northeast Colorado this evening and then cross western
Kansas during the overnight hours. The enhanced lift develop ahead
of this upper wave combined with the improving 0-1km moisture
convergence and mid level instability will provide a better
opportunity for convection over eastern Colorado after 00z
Wednesday with these storms then tracking east across southwest
Kansas overnight. Risk of large hail will be possible early this
Tuesday evening with these developing storms also but after sunset
the risk should begin to shift to strong gusty winds and heavy
rainfall. These storms that may produce periods of heavy rainfall
are currently expected to track over areas that have not received
much rainfall from the past several storm systems so the flooding
currently does not appear to be an issue tonight. Ponding of water
in poor drainage areas can not be ruled out.
Convection will be tapering off late tonight/early Tuesday as an
upper level trough exits western Kansas. As this upper level
trough exits western Kansas our next upper level trough/500mb vort
lobe will move across Wyoming and begin to approach western Kansas
late day. A moist southeasterly flow will also return by late day
ahead of this approaching upper wave and given the
heating/instability forecast by 00z Wednesday the chance for
thunderstorms will be on the increase late day/early Tuesday
night. The better chances for afternoon storms will be across
eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas with these storms then
spreading eastward across all of western Kansas early Tuesday
night. At this time will also favor the best chance for convection
to be located north and east of Dodge City given the improving
850mb to 700mb frontogenesis near the northern edge of the 8 to
12C temperature gradient and current forecast track of the 500mb
vort lobe. At this time Hail greater than 2 inches will also be a
concern, especially early in the event, given the 0-6km shear and
mid level instability. This hail risk should decrease through the
evening with heavy rain and gusty winds becoming the main hazards.
Later shifts will need to monitor the heavy rain potential from
these storms Tuesday night given the rainfall that some locations
have received over the past few days.
Highs 80s are expected on Tuesday based on the cooler 900mb to
850mb temperatures forecast from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
On Wednesday an upper level ridge will begin to build across the
Rockies as the next upper level disturbance begins to work its way
into the Central Rockies. The ECMWF does hint that a few weaker
upper level disturbances will be present late day across New
Mexico and/or the Texas panhandle. Given late day instability and
any subtle wave rippling eastwards towards southwest Kansas could
easily result in some scattered thunderstorms near the Oklahoma
border. Any storm that does develop will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall given the high precipitable water forecast south of
Dodge City.
As for temperatures on Wednesday it looks like highs will range
from the mid 70s to lower 80s based on the location of the surface
boundary south of the Oklahoma border, 850mb temperature
forecasts at 00z Thursday and east northeast winds advecting
slightly cooler temperatures into southwest Kansas.
Thursday and Friday the upper level ridge over the Rockies will
build slowly eastward into the Western High Plains as an upper
high develops just south of the four corners area. Several upper
level disturbances will move through this upper ridge and move out
into the central plain and with each upper level disturbance
there will be a chance for thunderstorms across western Kansas.
Timing of any subtle upper wave late week will be difficult to pin
down but at this time it appears that these waves will cross the
Central Plains late day/overnight each day. Also given the slow
eastward progression of the upper ridge the track of the Thursday
system appears to bring with it the best chance for widespread
precipitation to western Kansas while the Friday/early Saturday
upper level system appears to focus the better lift across central
Kansas.
In addition to the increasing chances for precipitation on
Thursday given the passage of the upper level trougha cold
front will also move south across western Kansas late day/Thursday
night. This will usher in some cooler air into southwest Kansas
on Friday but these cool temperatures (70s/80s) will be brief
given the westerly downslope flow developing and warming 850mb
temperatures forecast across western kansas this upcoming weekend
period and early next week. Highs in the mid to upper 90s not out
of the question on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
A complex of storms will be exiting eastern Colorado and going
into western Kansas this evening and thunderstorms will be
possible for all airport terminals after 01Z. Tempos have been
included for generally 03-09Z as we could see two rounds of storms
moving in from Colorado into western Kansas during the overnight.
The thunderstorms could produce brief downburst winds of over 50
kts. Most of the activity should subside by 12Z and cloud ceilings
should generally become VFR through 00Z Tuesday evening. Winds in
general should stay 12 kts or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 83 59 79 / 80 20 50 10
GCK 60 81 59 77 / 80 30 40 10
EHA 59 79 59 78 / 40 30 60 20
LBL 62 80 61 80 / 60 30 50 10
HYS 60 84 60 77 / 70 20 60 10
P28 65 82 64 80 / 40 20 50 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Tatro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
653 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday/
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Key messaging highlights:
* Strong storms this evening southeast, and possibly again late
tomorrow west
The short term pattern will remain active with strong to severe
storms into southeast Iowa through at least late afternoon, and
then again late Tuesday as our current quasi-linear pattern begins
to amplify a bit more to end the week. At onset this afternoon,
the ongoing complex continues to hold steady or slowly intensify
and seemingly outperform parameter space expectations. RAP
projections keep MLCAPEs uncapped at 1000-1500 J/kg, but looking
at modified soundings with current obs in the airmass ahead
suggests MLCAPEs are likely well over 2000 J/kg with dewpoints
higher than anticipated. Effective shear is <30kts, but the
cluster is obviously modulating beyond that, possibly due to
stronger mid level shear. 0-3km CAPEs are elevated as well, >100
J/kg, so large hail and damaging winds are still possible, and a
few funnel clouds or weak QLCS tornadoes cannot be ruled out even
with marginal 0-3km shear. Storm motions of around 35kts should
preclude any flash flood potential, but brief locally heavy rains
are possible as well. This should all exit the forecast area by
early evening however with subsidence and the loss of convergence
behind the weak surface front.
Our break tonight into early tomorrow won`t last long however
with our attention turning to the current PV stream entering OR.
This is expected to reach SD late Tuesday increasing forcing
through the MO Valley. Northeast surface flow should push the
instability axis south and west of the forecast area, but MUCAPEs
should at least approach 1000 J/kg west by afternoon. The
concerning feature will be increasing deep shear as the speed max
associated with the aforementioned PV trough pushes into the
Plains, elevating effective shear to 50+kts, including quasi-
linear elongated hodographs. The 12Z HREF hints that some of this
shear may be realized even considering the marginal instability
with a few recent members showing isolated updraft helicity tracks
across southwest Iowa, and suggesting a few strong to severe
storms and supercells are possible with wind and hail the primary
threats by the early evening hours.
This would be in addition to lower stability precipitation
farther north and east closer to the attendant short wave and
associated thermodynamic and kinematic forcing. While the severe
weather potential would certainly be less, much of the
deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests 0.50-1.0" amounts
are possible into Tuesday Night before the forcing exits toward
the MS Valley toward daybreak.
&&
.LONG TERM.../Tuesday night through Monday/
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Key messaging highlights:
-Additional storm chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday
then again on Thursday into Friday
-Near to below temperatures will continue until the end of the
weekend.
An upper-level ridge will attempt to build up in the northwest
CONUS, but will still not reach Iowa due to the current blocking
pattern from a closed low in Canada. Additional small waves of
energy will eject down and bring more storm chances Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning as well as Thursday night into Friday.
The greater forcing will move out on Wednesday morning and high
pressure will bring in a brief dry spell before additional rain and
storms Thursday night into Friday. Deterministic runs are differing
on the extent of rain into Iowa with this system. Aside from the
consensus of the anticipated MCS to the southwest, the GFS and EC
have an area of elevated forcing over portions of northwest Iowa
where they initiate additional precip. Again, the question will be
the presence of elevated instability overnight with lapse rates near
6C/km on the Iowa-Nebraska border. Deep layer shear looks to be near
favorable. There is still a difference in timing and location
between the GFS and EC, but both models show 6 hour QPF around
0.6" overnight Thursday into Friday morning.
Synoptic flow will become more northwest with the passing of
Thursday night`s system and the building of the ridge to the
west. Iowa will be more on the cold sector of this ridge, keeping
temperatures near or below average until the ridge moves east this
weekend. Additional rainfall chances are possible towards the end
of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening/
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
VFR conditions have returned to almost all of the area behind the
front/thunderstorm cluster that has moved off to the east. Winds
expected to decrease and become light and variable overnight into
tomorrow afternoon before picking up some and becoming out of the
south. Skies have started to clear in parts of central Iowa with
additional cloud cover moving in from the west, though expected to
remain mid to high clouds overnight. Guidance starting to hint at
areas of fog with the light winds if skies can clear, especially
across northern Iowa, between roughly 10-14Z. Will continue to
monitor fog potential for inclusion in next issuance if impacts to
KFOD/KMCW seem more likely.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Small/Jimenez
AVIATION...KCM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1134 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022
.AVIATION...
Ongoing passage of a cold front over Michigan and remnant convection
across northern Indiana, derived from a shortwave, will work in
tangent to produce widespread rain across all TAF sites through the
mid to late morning hours. Some rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled
out as weak elevated instability holds over the region, however,
instability will be waning as we progress through the night. Radar
and satellite evidence suggests the Metro terminals will have the
better chances to see some isolated thunderstorms, connected to a
pocket of better instability. Rain activity may be moderate to heavy
at times, with downpours drawing visibilities down to IFR at times.
High confidence also remains regarding cig heights ranging between
IFR-MVFR with rain activity. While rain is ongoing, the surface cold
front will pass from northwest to southeast now until roughly 12Z.
Wind direction will veer from southwest to northwest after the
frontal passage.
For DTW...An enhanced pocket of instability has produced isolated
thunderstorm activity within the vicinity of the Metro airport.
Confidence remains low regarding thunderstorms impacting the
terminal as instability wanes, however, the low-end chance for
thunderstorm activity will hold through 08Z. The other main impacts
will be heavy downpours and cig heights, both lowering to or close
to IFR with observed rain. A surface cold front will quickly shift
wind direction from southwest to northwest around 11/12Z.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for thunderstorm chances overnight.
* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less through late Tuesday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022
DISCUSSION...
Light showers and thick canopy of clouds have kept temperatures and
instability in check, and SPC mesoscale analysis at 18z shows just
weak instability over southeast Michigan. However, there is a tight
instability gradient right by the southern Michigan border, and some
of this instability/moisture will work into southeast Michigan, and
a marginal risk of severe storms (wind gusts to 60 mph) south of an
Adrian-Port Huron line into early this evening still appears valid as
14z Rap increasings MLcapes to around 1500 J/kg. Fortunately, the
developing nocturnal southwest low level jet (45+ knots at 850 MB)
should reside over the eastern Great Lakes by midnight. Thus, the
intensity and coverage of rainfall tonight is still in question, as
the upper wave moving into western Kentucky is also factoring into
the equation and causing some disruption in the moisture transport.
Still plenty of mixed signals in where heaviest rainfall will fall,
as convective feedback (especially over Ohio) leading to plenty of
implied hot spots in NAM/CAM solutions, but the overall consensus is
for just scattered heavy rainfall areas, with enough movement to help
limit the totals. Interestingly, with the trailing Midwest upper
wave/deformation and associated surface reflection moving through
early Tuesday morning, the north half of the CWA may actually get
into the heavier rainfall (1-2 inches)/see 12z ARW/regional Gem.
However, those locations would be able to handle that amount of rain
better than the Detroit urban area, and not planning on extending the
areal flood watch and will just continue with the present outline.
Confidence remains low however, as there is still plenty of solutions
indicating less than one inch of rainfall tonight.
The shortwave trough axis should be east of the Central Great Lakes
around or shortly after the noon hour on Tuesday, setting us up for
a dry afternoon with the westerly confluent upper level flow and
surface high building into Lower Michigan through Tuesday night
night. There is a low potential of radiation fog if we don`t
significantly dry out the soaked ground Tuesday afternoon, as the
good radiators likely head to around 50 degrees for lows early
Wednesday morning.
An extended period of normal to slightly below normal temperatures
is expected as the the large upper level low/trough over Eastern
Canada will be in no hurry to exit through the work week, and likely
holds on into the Weekend. In fact, the coldest air (1000-500 MB
thicknesses around 550 DAM) looks to be around for the weekend, as
Pacific energy tracks through on the backside of the trough. The
cooler cyclonic flow will provide a couple opportunities for showers
as a few upper level disturbances rotate around the parent
circulation. Outside of the wave moving through Wednesday, the other
disturbances look small and any periods of showers will be short
lived and mostly dependent on diurnal instability.
MARINE...
Widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to
be possible across the bulk of the central Great Lakes through
tonight as a slow moving cold front drops through the region. Best
chances for stronger thunderstorms this evening will be mainly
focused over the southern Great Lakes. Front is slow to clear out of
the area Tuesday morning maintaining shower potential from central
Lake Huron south- while a thunderstorm can`t be ruled out, potential
is low. Brief period of high pressure then expands across the region
latter half of Tuesday through the first half of Wednesday before
another low tracking through the Ohio Valley brings chances for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening. Best potential looking
to be over the southern half of the region.
HYDROLOGY...
Excessive rainfall remains possible as showers and thunderstorms
fill in across Lower Michigan through tonight. A round of scattered
thunderstorms toward the Ohio border through mid evening is followed
by a greater coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms just
after midnight tonight through a little past sunrise Tuesday.
Widespread rainfall totals reach the 0.75 to 1.75 inch inch range
with localized amounts possibly reaching around 3 inches before the
system exits Tuesday morning. A flood watch remains in effect for
areas generally along and south of an Adrian to Port Huron line.
Areas outside of the flood watch/Detroit Metro area should be able to
handle 1 to 2 inches of rain with just minor flooding of the prone
areas with rises on creeks and streams tonight into Tuesday.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ063-069-070-075-076-082-
083.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......KDK
HYDROLOGY....SF
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
843 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Subtropical upper ridging continues to strengthen across Mexico and
the desert southwest, with height rises today into tomorrow across
TX. At the moment, RAP analysis and sfc observations indicate a weak
surface low is centered to the north of San Angelo. Model guidance
suggests this will remain pretty stationary, perhaps retrograding
slightly westward and losing definition through the short term
period. Southerly winds will continue in the 10-15 mph range and
locally higher, with gusts of 15-30 mph this afternoon. With a high
sun angle, dry soils, and strong thermal ridging, hot conditions
result. Forecast highs today of 97 to 109 prompted a Heat Advisory
through 8pm this evening for most areas.
Tonight we`ll see some low cloud development for some areas mainly
central and east after 1am, but again cloud cover will scatter out
quickly on Tuesday morning. After lows in the 70s, highs will again
soar into the 96-107 degree range, warmest south and west as usual.
At the moment, we are going to hold off on determining if and where
a Heat Advisory would be needed for tomorrow, as the heat has been
well messaged to this point and official criteria are only likely to
be met in scattered locations like Llano and Pleasanton. At the very
least, an SPS will be issued later this evening or tonight. Tomorrow
night will be another wash, rinse, repeat with low clouds developing
late except along the Rio Grande and lows in the 70s.
Record High (6/7) Forecast High
Austin Bergstrom 98 (2018) 101
Austin Mabry 100 (2011) 101
San Antonio 103 (1989) 102
Del Rio 108 (1974) 107
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Hot and dry weather conditions are expected for the long term forecast
period. The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the local area
bringing near to record high temperatures for the next several days.
Highs will be ranging from 100 to 105 degrees from Wednesday into
Friday. Heat index values are likely to run from 103 to 106 degrees
across most areas with the exception of the Hill Country for the same
time period. Heat Advisories or Special Weather Statements are
likely to be issued for parts of the local area the next several days
with heat safety messaging. There is a "cool" time window on
Thursday as a weak cold front washes out while moving over central
Texas and the northern part of the Hill Country. Between clouds and
lack of sunshine across some areas across south central Texas expect
temperatures to be one or two degrees cooler than Wednesday. By
Friday, the subtropical ridge takes control once again with the trend
continuing through the upcoming weekend, with model guidance in good
agreement on temperatures around the 101 and up to 107 degrees and
no rain. Therefore, the heat continues to affect our area for the
upcoming weekend and looks like to stay into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with breezy
southerly winds. MVFR ceilings will develop across the I-35 corridor
and impact AUS/SAT/SSF beginning between 07z-08z. These lower
ceilings will stick around through 14z when they should mix out and
return all of South Central Texas to VFR skies. Winds tomorrow
afternoon will be breezy out of the south once more with gusts up to
22 knots. DRT should be VFR through the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 73 101 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 78 107 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 74 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 74 105 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 74 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 99 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 76 105 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bandera-
Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Dimmit-Edwards-Frio-
Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-
Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Wilson-
Zavala.
&&
$$
Short-Term...KCW
Long-Term...17
Aviation...Treadway
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
602 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022
A relatively weak 100kt jet streak is slowly entering the forecast
area and providing some divergence aloft. Daytime heating and plenty
of available moisture will further destabilize the atmosphere this
atmosphere and evening allowing thunderstorms and showers to
continue. Some small hail is possible with the stronger storms as
well as some gusty winds. Some cells yesterday produced some heavier
rain that actually reached the surface (shocker) so expect that some
brief, heavy rain will be possible again this afternoon and evening.
The showers and storms will be mainly confined to areas north of the
I-70 corridor though a few pop-ups can`t be ruled out over the San
Juans. Speaking of, both the HRRR and NAMNEST are showing a weak
line of storms possibly moving over the Delta and Montrose areas
around 6PM before heading into the West Elks. Since both models have
initialized very well this afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised if that
happens. By this evening, the core of higher speeds aloft will have
already moved to the Plains and as daytime heating subsides,
convection will take a downturn though a few showers will likely
persist over the higher terrain. High temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday though areas north will be similar to
yesterday, if not a few degrees cooler, due to cloud cover and
precip.
For Tuesday, zonal flow remains over the area with some height rises
expected in the afternoon as a low amplitude ridge quickly builds
in. This ridge will quickly break down however as generally zonal
flow sets up across the area. Precip will stay over the Front
Range while we will remain dry. We`ll see plenty of sunshine as
temperatures start their upward trend with highs across the region
running 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal values. Unfortunately,
this trend continues into the weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Models are in agreement with a general zonal flow across the Western
States through the end of the week keeping the region mostly dry.
High pressure building to the south will increase 500 mb heights to
591 dm Friday and Saturday to give us the warmest temperatures yet
this year with the lower valleys reaching into the mid to upper
90`s. There is some indication of a shortwave moving through the
ridge Thursday popping off some mountain showers, but these will
most likely stay east of the Divide where they can tap the moisture
along the Front Range. By Sunday, a deep trough starts dropping into
the Pacific Northwest, increasing the southwest gradient winds
across eastern Utah and Western Colorado. With the dry, hot weather
in the area, critical fire weather conditions are the main concern
for much of the region beginning Sunday and continuing into next
week. Stay tuned for the latest forecasts going into this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 602 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022
A downward trend in shower and thunderstorm coverage will continue
through sunset. The biggest threat has been gusty outflow winds
from the storms...the strongest which is moving through Montrose
at the top of the hour. VFR and light winds will dominate much of
the overnight and morning forecast with breezy conditions
returning again for Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1100 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022
We will continue to maintain high chances for precipitation across
our Southern CWA tonight, towards I-94 especially. That said, it
appears the focus of the heaviest precipitation is going to miss
us just to the south across Northern Illinois and Northern
Indiana. A zone of convergence near the southern edge of the
showers and thunderstorms looks to be the focus for the rest of
the night. The HRRR 850mb low level jet forecast has the
convergence on the north side of LLJ remaining south of the MI/IN
line. It does nose towards Calhoun and Jackson counties for a few
hours between 03z and 06z or so and it appears we are seeing that
trend right now. The mid level vort max remains on an eastward track
centered near Janesville in Wisconsin along the WI/IL state line.
It is conceivable that convection reinvigorates as this vort moves
our direction overnight. The better bet though is that the
heavier rains, given current trends look to place the heaviest
precipitation just south of our area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022
- Expect Some Rain Tonight /Thunderstorm Threat Low
There have been many questions about the precipitation event today
into tonight. It now seems MCV, which was forecast to happen did
actually happen but it was not strong enough to develop a deep
surface low as some of the models had suggested yesterday. So what
is really happening now is northern stream shortwave, which
brought over an inch of rain to the area just north of Route 10
overnight into early this morning is pulling out. That is
creating and area of sinking air behind it. That in turn is
killing the rain area that has been trying to move across lower
Michigan during the daylight hours of today. So, most of the area
has had a few hundredths of an inch but not more than that.
The threat of thunderstorms is just about gone for this afternoon
there is to much mid cloud to allow enough warming, put there is
that subsidence from the departing northern stream shortwave too.
What remains is the MCV over MO and another much smaller one over
Iowa. However the Iowa MCV is on the exit region of that 110 knot
Pacific Ocean origin polar jet core. So, I believe we will see
that being what will bring us the rain overnight. There is major
questions as to the track of the heavier rain. The GFS is much
farther north and I would disregard that solution for that reason
but one could argue that the digging of the next upstream system
will allow that leading jet segment to lift farther north as the
GFS is suggesting. One way or the other and area of significant
rain showers will cross Lower Michigan mostly during the early
morning hours of Tuesday. I could still see some locations getting
a half inch of rain. It does not look as good for rainfall
amounts over an inch like we were thinking earlier.
- Quick Clearly by Midday Tuesday
Once the system moves through late tonight we get some weak
shortwave ridging should result in clearing by midday. We do get
some decent cold advection and a push of dry air to help the cause
for bringing the sunshine into our area by early afternoon.
- Several systems in a row into next week then dry for awhile
The dry weather does not last long through. The next upstream
system follows for Wednesday. However, unlike the current system
the system behind that has a larger wavelength. That allows this
next shortwave to dig farther south instead of lifting northward
like the current one does. Also it is rotating around very much
blocked upper low over Hudson Bay. This time we will be deeper
into the cold air aloft and not have much warm air at the surface
(surely not much sun to heat the air) so this should mostly just
be rain showers even through our grids show otherwise. Instability
in negligible.
The next system upstream gets pulled into this Hudson Bay system
and that pulls the Hudson Bay low nearly as far south as Lake
Superior by Saturday morning. So, likely any showers from the
Wednesday system should end by early Thursday. There is enough
instability for convection Thursday afternoon over the eastern
CWA even through our forecast grids show it dry, likely it will
not be, there will be scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. That digging third shortwave for Friday will bring
more instability for more afternoon convection. With the upper low
so close, showers may linger into Saturday.
We should then get 3 to 4 days of dry weather with a significant
warm up as a major shortwave ridge moves through our area. Stormy
weather will return by the middle of next week and it will cool
off again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 827 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Aviation conditions will deteriorate through the evening and into
the overnight. By 06Z, widespread IFR conditions are expected to
be in place due to low ceilings developing rapidly this evening
and lowering to below 1,000 feet. These low ceilings will persist
through the night and continue into the morning flight take off
times between 09Z and 13Z. The low ceilings are associated with a
wave of low pressure that will work through Southern Lower
Michigan tonight from west to east. Showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the wave of low pressure tonight.
Conditions will improve rapidly on Tuesday as the wave of low
pressure moves off to the east. Ceilings and visibilities should
improve back to VFR between 14Z and 18Z on Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Winds and waves will remain below small craft criteria into this
coming weekend.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Duke
DISCUSSION...WDM
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
736 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...
Issued at 726 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Storms have diminished somewhat from their earlier peak this
afternoon. This is consistent with what the HRRR has been
predicting during the last several cycles. The evening sounding
from OHX shows a nearly saturated column, and also some
instability (tall, thin CAPE with modest lapse rates). There is
also some low-level wind shear, as the 0-3 km SRH clocks in at
191. A weak upper trough is in the process of rotating through
Middle Tennessee this evening, which will put us under a northwest
flow aloft later on and this may contribute to some additional
destabilization. The HRRR does show considerable re-development of
storms in Middle Tennessee toward midnight, with widespread
convection lasting through the night and into the morning. So we
cannot "stand down" despite the current lull on the radar scope.
No forecast changes are planned for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Showers and storms continue to move east into the mid state ahead
of the upper shortwave trough that will bring additional showers
and storms through the overnight hours. CAPE values will be
highest across the western half of the area, and deep layer shear
continues to trend upward this afternoon into the evening. Strong
to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with the main threat
being damaging wind gusts. Low level shear is strong as well, so
cant rule out tornado potential this afternoon and evening either.
Ahead of a weak cold front associated with this upper wave
tonight, another band of showers and storms will be possible. Some
instability does look to remain overnight, so strong to severe
storm potential will remain, but also added moisture with high
PWAT values around 2 inches will allow for a flooding threat as
well. CAMs are highlighting areas along and north of I-40 for
heavy rain potential, but everywhere in the mid state will need to
be weather aware this afternoon through tomorrow morning for
flooding potential with heavy rain, and strong to severe
thunderstorms with damaging winds and maybe even a tornado or two.
Another weaker shortwave will move through during the day Tuesday,
but it looks like we will have a short break in the rain Tuesday
morning. Diurnal heating as well as the approaching wave will
increase precip chances during the afternoon and into the evening.
Strong to severe storms may be possible if instability can
increase during the afternoon hours, but that will depend on how
much coverage and how long the rain lasts during the morning hours
after sunrise Tuesday morning. Another shortwave will be right on
the heels of the earlier Tuesday shortwave trough, so rain chances
look to continue Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Wednesday looks to start with ongoing showers and a few
thunderstorms as the shortwave approaches and the Midwest broad
trough continues to develop and swing eastward. Best chances for
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday still looks to be during
the afternoon to early evening, yet again with some instability
and shear in place, so more strong to severe storms will be
possible then as well. Drier conditions should move in on
Thursday, maybe with isolated showers in the south and east, as
northwest flow moves in aloft. That wont last long though as a
strong shortwave moves through the upper flow and brings showers
and thunderstorms in Friday afternoon and evening, possibly
carrying into the early morning hours Saturday. Most of the
instability stays to our south, but if that CAPE creeps northward
with the next model runs through the week, we could have another
strong to severe storm threat Friday afternoon and evening.
Saturday may be dry for the northwest, but some lingering showers
could hold in the south and east during the day. Northwest flow
and an approaching ridge will start off Sunday and next week, with
a much welcomed drier period. The upper high in the Plains does
not move as far east as previous runs, so the hot temps stay off
to our west, but still expecting highs in the 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
Waves of showers and thunderstorms will move across Middle TN and
affect the TAF sites. VFR will go down to MVFR/IFR in and around
thunderstorms. In addition MVFR CIGs expected around sunrise due
to low clouds...especially where rain was received this afternoon
evening and in and around low lying areas and bodies of water.
More showers and thunderstorms expected again tomorrow afternoon
and evening.
Winds will be southerly overnight and swing around to the
southwest tomorrow after 15Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 68 87 68 85 / 90 60 60 90
Clarksville 67 85 67 84 / 90 50 60 80
Crossville 64 79 64 79 / 80 70 60 90
Columbia 67 87 67 84 / 90 60 60 80
Cookeville 66 82 67 81 / 90 60 60 90
Jamestown 63 80 63 80 / 90 60 60 90
Lawrenceburg 67 86 67 83 / 80 50 60 80
Murfreesboro 67 87 68 85 / 90 50 60 90
Waverly 66 85 67 83 / 90 60 60 80
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....12
UPDATE.......Rose
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
628 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
...AVIATION UPDATE...
Key Messages:
1) Isolated thunderstorms remain possible into early this evening
across south-central Missouri.
2) A decaying complex of storms may impact southeast KS and
western MO late tonight and Tuesday morning.
3) Scattered storms expected Tuesday afternoon with a Marginal
Risk for severe storms and flooding.
4) Potential for a stronger complex of storms and a flooding risk
from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
5) Another complex of storms possible from late Thursday night
into Friday morning.
6) Drying out for the weekend.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
The remnants of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to
track east across eastern Missouri into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Enough low-level convergence and uncapped instability
will exist for isolated thunderstorms across south-central
Missouri into early this evening. There remains a Marginal Risk
for severe storms generally along and east of a Winona to West
Plains line, but most storms will remain below severe limits.
By later this evening, another complex of storms is expected to
develop in the central High Plains and begin to track southeast
towards the Missouri Ozarks. The southern flank of this complex
may then peel southeast into Oklahoma into an area of better
instability as the nose of a low-level jet refocuses and noses
towards the Oklahoma City metro.
It is then unclear how the northern extent of the complex will
evolve in terms of longevity and track. Instability will certainly
be weaker across eastern Kansas and western Missouri later tonight
with RAP forecast soundings indicating MUCAPE values in the 1200
to 1600 J/kg range (versus values of 2000 to 2500 J/kg across
Oklahoma). CAMs are fairly consistent in depicting a weakening
trend as the complex reaches southeast Kansas and western
Missouri. However, CAMs differ on how far east the decaying
activity will get late tonight and early Tuesday morning.
Regardless, the threat for impactful weather (severe storms and
flooding) looks very low at this juncture.
One other item to discuss for tonight is fog potential. There are
several models (and MOS guidance) pinging on lower visibilities
with some even indicating dense fog formation. However, there
should be an increase in high clouds later tonight which would
tend to mitigate fog development. We have elected to keep fog out
of the forecast for now given the HREF depiction of increasing
high clouds. This is certainly something we will continue to
monitor.
Sensible weather for Tuesday will then be heavily dependent on
what happens with that decaying MCS. It is quite possible that we
have a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) that is drifting east
across the area. There will also be a surface front that stalls
out in a west to east fashion somewhere near or just north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Both of these features may serve as triggers
for scattered afternoon thunderstorms in what should be a
moderately unstable environment (MLCAPEs of 2000 to 2500 J/kg).
With deep layer shear values of around 30 knots, a few of these
storms will have the potential to reach low-end severe criteria.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of the Missouri Ozarks
and southeast Kansas in a Marginal Risk for severe storms on
Tuesday. We will also have to watch for the threat of locally
heavy rainfall and flash flooding Tuesday afternoon and evening
given the slow moving nature of these focusing mechanisms.
There are some fairly appreciable model spreads for high
temperatures Tuesday given variance in cloud cover and
precipitation coverage. We have gone with NBM deterministic
numbers for now (lower 80s), however thicker cloud cover and more
precipitation may keep some locations back in the middle to upper
70s. Areas that receive more sunshine will push the middle 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
The synoptic scale pattern will remain favorable for MCSs through
midweek as convection develops across the central High Plains and
congeals. The keys to where these systems develop and track (and
whether or not they impact the Ozarks) remain:
1) The location of a low level baroclinic zone.
2) Where low- level jet energy can override that feature.
Synoptic scale models and the tail-end of the CAMs indicate that a
genesis region for Tuesday night will be across western and
central Nebraska. Wind fields would favor this MCS tracking
southeast into the Missouri Ozarks late Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning, especially if forecast MUCAPE profiles are a
bit more robust as models are indicating. If this scenario indeed
pans out, we will have to watch for heavy rainfall potential and
the risk for locally damaging wind gusts before the MCS starts to
weaken with time. The HREF probability matched means do have
pockets of 6-hour rainfall amounts greater than two inches within
the core of this MCS.
The risk for showers and thunderstorms may then persist into later
Wednesday as a cold front pushes south through the area. That
front will make it far enough south of the Missouri Ozarks to
bring a brief quiet stretch of weather from Wednesday night into
Thursday. High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will remain
near or slightly below normal for this time of year with highs
fairly close to the 80 degree mark.
The WPC Cluster Analysis Tool then gives us high confidence that
the upper level pattern will begin to transition to a slightly
higher amplitude from Thursday into Friday with a ridge beginning
to build up over the western CONUS. As this transition occurs,
ensembles indicate short wave energy traversing what will be a
northwest flow aloft over the central U.S. This will likely result
in yet another complex of thunderstorms developing across the
central Plains and tracking through the region (including the
Missouri Ozarks) from late Thursday night into Friday.
Meanwhile, a cold front associated with that short wave energy
should make pretty good progress south towards the Gulf Coast
states given the amplifying northwest flow aloft. This should set
the stage for a dry weekend and near normal temperatures.
Looking ahead, the Climate Prediction Center is indicating a
decent signal for above normal temperatures and below normal
precipitation as we get into next week. This is backed well by
both the ECMWF and Canadian Ensemble systems. The GEFS is a bit
more neutral across the Ozarks when it comes to temperatures with
higher positive temperature anomalies staying just west of the
area across the central and southern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022
While VFR conditions are currently forecast, there is some
uncertainty that may lead to changes later tonight into Tuesday
morning. There is potential that a thunderstorm complex will
develop from storms currently over eastern Colorado. If the
complex develops and if it moves toward the area, shower and
thunderstorm chances will need to be added to the forecast. If no
complex develops or stays far enough away from the area to allow
for clear skies late tonight, fog will be possible late tonight
into Tuesday morning.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Titus