Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/06/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
641 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Removed the mention of thunder this evening. Precip to the east
has been mostly stratiform in nature and showers across western SD
have not contained any lightning so far. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track this evening with no changes planned to temps or
pops.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Showers and thunderstorms continue into tonight with mostly
cloudy skies. Otherwise, cooler than average temperatures expected
for the start of the week with continuing chances of rain off and on
through early Tuesday.
A 500mb, a low continues to stay pretty much stationary and
continuing to spin over Ontario which will finally start pushing
each towards the end of next week. Otherwise, a weak upper level
ridge just to our west, with a troughing pattern across the western
part of the United States. This puts most of the CWA in a northwest
flow aloft before the ridge flattens out by the western trough (and
another shortwave) and we will then have more of a quasi-zonal/zonal
flow through Tuesday. With this low spinning to our north and this
flow aloft, shortwave energy continues to move across the area which
helps aid in chances of precipitation through Tuesday. At the
surface, a stationary front is draped across the upper parts of the
Midwest and another one to our south with a surface low that will
push across the area.
Instability wise, surface winds continue out of the east/southeast
and dewpoints by 00Z will increase into the upper 50s/lower 60s
across our southern CWA giving us that moisture at the surface for
lifting. HRRR model indicates ML CAPE values low north of Pierre
with values 400-500 J/KG in our southern counties by 00Z. HREF/HRRR
MUCAPE/SBCAPE values 500~1300 J/KG are expected across parts of our
south-central/southern counties by 00Z which indicates the
atmosphere is marginally/mod unstable. ECMWF-HiRes keeps most of the
higher CAPE/instability well to our south in NE/KS. In our southern
CWA, along with the higher CAPE and DP, lapse rates (HRRR) do
increase 5-6 degrees C/km^-1 which will aid in vigorous convection
that could produce stronger thunderstorms. HREF 0-1 KM bulk shear
values remain low with 0-6M shear values 30-40 kts. This indicates
the possibility of organized storms with hail (quarter size) being
the main concern. CAPE values decrease overnight for that area.
CAMs/radar indicates scattered rain showers continuing from west to
east this evening with HREF keeping the probability of thunderstorms
chances low (but not out of the question) for much of the central
and northern CWA with better thunderstorms chances in our southern
CWA, as mentioned, where there is better instability. Few of the CAM
models keep the possibility of some rain showers lingering tonight.
mainly in our western CWA. More rain will move west to east back
into the region for Monday as a shortwave pushes through. More
chances of rain continue Monday night into Tuesday. Overall, 48-hour
QPF starting at 00Z Monday-Wednesday range to around half an inch in
our western CWA to around 0.15 of an inch in our eastern CWA. Some
areas could see localized higher amounts with thunderstorms.
Lows overnight will be a little cooler ranging in the upper 40s to
the lower 50s. Cooler than average temperatures for Monday with
highs mainly in the mid-upper 60s which continue into Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
The long term begins with positive tilt upper troffing over eastern
and central Canada, and ridging over the west coast of the CONUS.
Through the time period, the west coast ridge builds in strength and
expands into the Rockies, as troffing deepens over the eastern
CONUS. Early in the period, with general troffing overhead, there
looks to be a decent chance of showers/storms Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Then it looks like a brief reprieve on Wednesday before more
rain moves into the area Thursday through Friday. Next weekend
should feature lower rain chances. That all said, this active
pattern makes timing difficult, so forecast confidence is moderate
at best pertaining to the PoP forecast. Lastly, based on temp
anomaly forecasts from the EPS/GEFS, overall, temperatures are
expected to be near to below normal through much of the long term
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions will mix with MVFR cigs, at times, tonight in
ongoing showers. Winds will remain light.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
629 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Key Messages:
- Rain with a Few Storms through Tonight/Potential for Heavy Rain
- Below Normal Temperatures into Next Week
- Continued On and Off Rain Chances Throughout the Week
Water vapor satellite imagery, lightning, and radar show westerly
flow with embedded shortwave troughs. Closed low pressure at 500mb
was noted over Ontario. One shortwave is over eastern KS/OK with
another shortwave trough over the western High Plains. The late
morning 88-D radar mosaic had showers in a west to east band near
the 850mb warm front over southern Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin and just north of the subjective analysis of the surface
warm front in north central Iowa. Additional storms were noted over
South Dakota and Nebraska closer to the warm front there and
approaching short wave trough. Lightning was most active with the
storms developing over Nebraska and the cluster of storms with the
MCV (mesoscale vorticity center) over Oklahoma. By early
afternoon, we are still have some spotty showers locally, with a
band of showers and storms increasing over northwest Iowa and
moreso over the Plains with the shortwave and additional storms across
parts of the U.P. of Michigan.
The pattern aloft through Monday morning is for the closed low over
Ontario pivot through the Upper Great Lakes as embedded shortwave
trough energy tracks across the Plains into MN/IA/WI. Deep moisture
was seen on the morning 850mb maps with 10 to 16 deg 850mb dewpoints
from IA/SD southward and variable amounts of 700mb moisture 3-6 deg
C pooled over parts of this same area. 850mb moisture transport
vectors are most robust across parts of OK/KS/MO...however there is
is moisture transport across Iowa into Wisconsin, shifting east by
12Z. A 90 to 100kt jet over the Upper Mississippi Valley dives
southeast through Monday morning with some upper level divergence
across the forecast area. 700mb warm advection strengthens this
evening and generally pushes east by 12Z. 850mb warm air advection
has been present through the day and was supposed to strengthen
again this evening. Recent runs off the NAM have backed off that,
delaying the stronger winds until after 03Z and shifting it
eastward and the 925mb winds are noticeably weaker compared to the
00Z run. The 50th percentile for precipitation is around .1 to
0.3" and the 90th percentile is 0.50 to 0.75 for this evening. The
latest NBM 4.1 still has a 50 to 80 percent probability for .25"
of rainfall and 40 to 60 percent for .5" or more over the tri-
state area, but has decreased the 1" or more probability to 10 to
20 percent. The 06.05 06Z GEFs mean at LSE/RST is around 0.6" and
for RST.
The pattern in general still has some positives for locally heavy
rain with the theta-e advection into the area this afternoon and
through the overnight hours, increasing precipitable water to
1.2-1.7", 95% relative humidity from 1000- 500mb, supportive
thickness diffluence, the 850mb front in the area, and slower
storm motions from 240 to 270 deg at 15 to 20kts. Still think some
higher rain totals (2-3"+) could occur due to these factors being
in place/training of storms. We`ve had some good recent rains
over the last couple of weeks (100-150% of normal) and the 1hr
flash flood guidance is 1 to 2 inches-the 3/6-hr flash flood
guidance is 2 to 3 inches. The Weather Prediction Center still has
us in a marginal risk for flash flooding and this is reasonable
should some of these higher rains materialize.
The SBCAPE/MLCAPE remains best to the southwest/south of the
forecast area. The RAP has MUCAPE of 100 J/kg to 800 J/kg south of
I90 late this afternoon into this evening with a pocket of higher
instability 1000-2000J/kg skirting our southern counties. With the
850mb pattern, elevated instability does make it north toward I90
and I94. The models vary on the shear placement with some models
closer to the tri-state area and others have the 35 to 50kt deep
layer shear will farther north. Will continue to mention thunder
where elevated instability is expected. Severe threat continues to
look low with instability/shear not lining up. The latest SPC
mesoanalysis graphics still show lower severe threat as the storms
move into northeast Iowa away from the better instability, but cannot
rule out stronger to marginal severe storms being so close to the
instability gradient, steep low level lapse rates, freezing
levels not as high as they could be this time of year and with the
shortwave tracking across the area.
Monday we dry out in the mid levels, however there may still be
enough residual moisture later in the afternoon with heating to
develop spotty showers. The HRRR/RAP/WRFARW/GFS are showing this.
The NAM also shows a few overnight showers with shortwave trough
energy, while the GFS is dry. A better chance for showers/a few
storms is Tuesday night into Wednesday with the next shortwave
trough that rotates from Montana and the Dakotas into the region.
The timing may change, but will see an increasing chance for rain
again Thursday into Friday. High temperatures remain below normal
for much of the week with readings in the 60s and 70s. It looks
like warmer temperatures close to normal though by the end of the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Regional radars showing some convective activity south of both
airports along the warm front stretched out across northern Iowa.
Most of the CAMS do not show this front or activity making much if
any northward progress this evening which is expected to keep the
potential for any storms to the south as well. Based on this idea,
have removed all the thunder mention from both forecasts. There is
a band of light showers in the Interstate 90 corridor that could
bring some occasional visibility reductions to both sites for a
while this evening before moving off the east by mid-evening. It
will also help to further moisten the boundary layer which should
promote the development of MVFR and IFR ceilings for both sites.
These should then remain through much of Monday morning before
lifting up to MVFR. Possible that the clouds could scatter out
Monday afternoon for VFR conditions but for now, plan to address
this trend with later forecasts.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Zapotocny
AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022
The upper level low continues to remain nearly stationary across
Ontario, resulting in weak upper level ridging to zonal flow
dominating the upper levels with several short wave disturbances
propagating within the flow across the Intermountain West. Current
radar imagery has been tracking convection developing across Dawes
County and pushing eastward across Chadron, before intensifying just
eastward into Sheridan County. As mentioned by the previous shift,
thermodynamic profiles remain favorable with a marginal risk
extending into the eastern Nebraska Panhandle, and the main threats
including strong winds and hail up to a nickel in size. Definitely
some rotation in the atmosphere, with a cold air funnel reported
near Chadron earlier today. As a result, will need to closely
monitor Dawes, Sioux, and Box Butte Counties with any convective
development. Nevertheless, HiRes model guidance points to possibly a
later event tonight, with CAMs pushing much better convection
eastward shortly before midnight.
Analyzing the severe threat for Monday, there is a fair amount of
model uncertainty in the near term forecast, and ultimately
depends on which model is able to adequately find a solution to
the thermodynamic profiles and upper level support. Current medium
range deterministic model solutions, particularly the NAMNST,
have pushed a much more impactful event where the ingredients are
coming together a bit better for the far eastern portion of
southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. These forecast
soundings have around 2100 J/kg of MUCAPE, excellent speed and
directional shear with a humped hodograph and effective bulk wind
differences at 55 kts, LCLs below 1km, precipitable water above an
inch, and very little CIN. On the opposite end, the short range
RAP has a much less impactful system across the CWA, and keeps
most of the better convection just out of reach to the
east/northeast. The short range forecast soundings targeted for
late afternoon/early evening tomorrow have much less MUCAPE
hovering on the north side of 700 J/kg, no real directional shear
to speak of, LCLs climbing above 2km, precipitable water below
average, CIN at -110 J/kg, and the significant hail parameter
hovering around 0.3. Main difficulties will remain with where the
upper level jet sets up and surface dewpoints across the Nebraska
Panhandle. If the jet is able to shift further southward or
slightly slow down, it could set up in a much more favorable
location for upward vertical motion. In addition, surface
dewpoints remain less favorable with high 40s across the majority
of the domain, except across Dawes County where dewpoints increase
to the mid-50s. Ultimately, if the environment favors the NAMNST
solution, severe storms will be much more favorable with the
convective temperatures easily being reached and storms able to
fire with little convective inhibition, primarily in the northern
zones of the CWA, and across Dawes/Sioux Counties. However,
confidence remains low at this time with too much model
uncertainty to nail down exact impacts. Will need to monitor over
the next 24 hours and see how everything shapes up.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022
CWA stays in fast zonal flow Tuesday with an upper shortwave
passing across northern Wyoming during the afternoon. Models in
good agreement with showers/storms across the northern Panhandle
as well as northern Converse/Niobrara Counties Tuesday
afternoon.
Surface boundary continues to lay over the Nebraska Panhandle
into the southeast Wyoming plains early Wednesday before shifting
east as upper ridge builds into the area from the west. Looks like
dry weather as ridge builds overhead into Thursday. Likely a dry
period ahead for this time as front well east of the Panhandle.
Will have to wait and see if this materializes.
Temperatures a small concern as GFS 700mb temperatures climb into
the mid teens Thursday afternoon. Did go a little higher than
guidance on highs Thursday through Saturday.
Ridge axis exits east Saturday afternoon for a return of unsettled
weather for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 521 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Wyoming TAFS...VFR. Thunderstorms in the vicinity at Laramie and
Cheyenne until 02Z. Wind gusts to 33 knots at all terminals until
03Z, then gusts to 34 knots after 15Z Monday.
Nebraska TAFS...VFR, except for IFR at Chadron and Alliance from
07Z to 15Z. Thunderstorms in the vicinity at Sidney until 03Z.
Wind gusts to 25 knots at all terminals until 03Z, then gusts to
24 knots at Scottsbluff and Sidney after 15Z Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected. Widely
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are forecast through
Tuesday. Ongoing green-up and wetting rain chances will keep fire
weather concerns at a minimum. Gusty/erratic winds and lightning
will be the main hazards, with small hail possible in the vicinity
of the stronger thunderstorms. Daily temperatures will average near
to slightly above seasonal normals.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1011 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Front has pushed south, and there has been an increase in gusts
behind this with brief gusts reported around 35 mph in the
southern RRV (mainly KFAR). After this immediate period of gusty
winds we may continue to see sustained winds in the 10-20 mph for
parts of the RRV due to the northerly flow down the valley, and
at least some lingering pressure gradient behind the front. Dry
air in place (Td depressions 20-30F) continues to limit
precipitation as the showers struggle to move east into our area.
Still think sprinkles or virga are favored if anything at all
occurs as this wave continues eastward.
UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Upstream radar returns are struggling to hold together as they
move into our area where drier air and much more stable mid level
lapse rates are in place. Still, there is still potential for
these showers to move across southern parts of our CWA as this
weak mid level wave passes, and light accumulations are possible
through the evening hours in our far south. Overall, not a lot
has changed from previous forecast, and only minor adjustments
were necessary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
The upper level flow pattern across the short term will continue to
be dictated by an upper low churning over southern Ontario and the
northern Great Lakes. This will result in weak west-northwesterly
flow aloft that is expected to persist into Monday. A further
southward shortwave traveling through stronger zonal flow further
upstream will also bring some precipitation impacts to the region
late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Despite mostly
sunny skies during the early afternoon hours, there is minimal
moisture present with dewpoint temperatures in the 30s to low 40s.
Resultant MUCAPE values of only a few hundred J/kg are also evident
via SPC RAP Mesoanalysis. Given the forcing from the approaching
shortwave, some rain shower activity is expected across southeastern
North Dakota, although it will need to overcome some dry air for
anything to reach the surface. Regardless, with the limited
instabilty, not anticipating anything more than a few rumbles of
thunder at most to accompany these showers.
Winds will remain gusty at times this afternoon but should level off
as the sun goes down, becoming more steady in the 5-10 kt range out
of the east-northeast overnight. Monday then looks to have a similar
feel to it as weak high pressure works its way into the region.
Breezy winds out of the northeast and cooler than normal
temperatures in the 60 to low 70s are once again expected.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Impacts...
* Quiet weather will persist with multiple shots for a few showers
here and there, but other than that no major impacts from weather
are anticipated at this time.
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS...
The big feature of the next week will be large scale ridging and
northwesterly flow across the area. With how dry the airmass is and
with multiple shortwaves expected to intermingle within the flow,
there isn`t much in the way for significant impacts expected in the
long term period. A bit of a stronger signal for impactful weather
does arise by midweek, although predictability is low at this time.
Within a few of these shortwaves, some showers may occur, although
looking at MUCAPE fields does put a bit of a damper on thunderstorm
chances (no pun intended).
Towards the end of the period, there does appear to be some
indications for potential southwest flow returning by next weekend,
although, again, predictability is low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period, with
northeast winds decreasing after sunset this evening and
increasing once again during the daytime period Monday. In the
north these winds may shift more to the north and become light and
variable. A few showers or virga will be possible mainly in
southeast ND and may move within the vicinity of KFAR this evening
(low confidence in coverage that far north and east).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$
UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...Rick
LONG TERM...Perroux
AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
823 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Dundy County in Nebraska, Cheyenne County in Kansas along with
Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado have been
removed from the Severe Thunderstorm Watch as atmospheric
conditions have stabilized. The remaining counties remain in the
watch with an hour long extension until 10pm MDT/11pm CDT due to
continued persistent supercells east of Goodland and over
Oberlin.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022
The main story for the short term period will be the multiple days
of severe weather potential. SPC has an Enhanced risk of severe
weather along and east of Highway 25 with a slight risk to the west.
Recent CAMS indicate initiation across Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO)
between 19-21Z. RAP forecast soundings indicate a very unstable air
mass developing with 2500-3500 j/kg of MLCAPE and ~4000 j/kg of
MUCAPE. MUCAPE of this magnitude plus 0-6 wind shear of 35-45 knots
will support the potential for hail greater than 2 inches in
diameter. The storms will grow upscale into a cluster after 6pm MT,
as a bowing segment will develop across eastern portions of the
area with 70+ mph winds possible. A tornado threat is possible,
especially during the early evening hours as the LLJ begins to
ramp up, but am currently expecting any potential tornado threat
to be confined to any storm mergers and boundary ingestion
(similar to last night) with a quick spin up possible. The severe
storms are expected to be out of the CWA around 10pm MT.
Monday, the active weather continues across the area as a warm front
moves northward out of Oklahoma into the area which will allow moist
air to advect into the CWA. A shortwave comes out of the Rockies
which will be the focus for storms during the afternoon hours, with
again with severe potential as large hail, damaging winds and some
tornadoes possible. The tornado potential will look to be along
the warm front. The strong moisture advection will also lead to
the potential for some flash flooding concerns, especially for
areas that has received the most rainfall over the pas few days.
High temperatures for the day are currently forecasted to be in
the 80s across the entire area along with overnight lows falling
into the 50s.
Into Tuesday, yet another chance for thunderstorms exists as another
wave moves into the area as an MCS develops. This will again bring
the potential for more flash flooding concerns, dependent on
where the heaviest rainfall falls the previous days. There is
currently some uncertainty with how widespread and the magnitude
the severe potential will be as convection/lingering cloud cover
will more than likely remain present during the morning hours.
Currently, the main threats look to be large hail and damaging
winds along with the heavy rainfall potential.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022
The long term period starts out with northwesterly flow as a weak
ridge remains across the western CONUS. Moisture will still be
present across the area, but the potential doesn`t look as good for
widespread showers and storms for the area, however isolated to
widely scattered precipitation still looks to be a possibility.
High temperatures for Wednesday are currently forecasted to be
cooler in the 70s across the area as cloud cover is anticipated
to last throughout the day.
Thursday, the same synoptic pattern remains with the exception of
a stronger shortwave being present within the overall flow.
Showers and storms will be possible, with a chance for severe
again returning to the area during the afternoon and evening
hours. Confidence is not overly high at this time to pinpoint
exact hazards and locations for the severe potential but at this
time it appears that some risk does exist. Warmer temperatures
return as high temperatures are forecasted to be in the 80s along
with breezy southerly winds with gusts of 25-35 mph.
The latter portion of the extended period has the ridge over the
western CONUS amplifying a bit as high pressure builds into the SW
portion of the country. Depending on how far north the high pressure
can make it into the CWA will dictate any further shower and storm
chances as guidance indicates the potential for some additional
disturbances moving off of the Rockies and into the plains. An even
warmer trend is expected to begin in part to the high pressure with
highs in the 80s before the potential for 90s returns by next
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Currently watching storms move into SW Nebraska from the Nebraska
Panhandle, the anticipation is they will become severe as they
move into the KMCK terminal near 01Z, will continue watching
trends for any changes of speed as they approach the terminal.
Confidence continues to wane if KGLD will see storms so will keep
VCTS as the best forcing for storms enters the area. Storms will
exit the area around 03Z as wins will turn to the SSE before
becoming more northerly towards the end of the period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2022
Showers have been isolated and confined to the boundary along the
southwest. Mesoscale analysis highlighted sufficient instability
in Middle TN and KY, which allowed for a few mostly shallow
showers to develop in these locations and into our southwest.
These have continued to dissipate as they work east where
instability wanes and much drier air is in place. Hi-Res guidance
suggests most of the area to remain rain and cloud free overnight,
though a few isolated showers can`t be ruled out near dawn along
the western fringes of the CWA as the boundary lifts back north
towards the Great Lakes. Given the low end confidence in this
activity developing, have kept the current forecast as is. The
primary update was with temperatures, as deeper eastern valleys
are falling off quicker than forecast. Given a set up similar to
the previous night and the on going trends, have nudged down lows
in a few usually cooler running spots. Have also incorporated the
latest satellite trends as well as loading and blending the latest
dewpoint and wind obs. Grids have been sent to NDFD and Webfarms.
UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2022
A similar set up in terms of downslope flow this afternoon, but
seeing an area of convergence along the western half of the CWA.
This is highlighted within surface winds, the higher dews in the
west, and visualized on satellite as well. A cu field has been
confined here in the most recent few hours, with some very
isolated blips popping up on radar in Wayne County and the far
southwest. The frontal boundary once across the Ohio Valley has
dipped south, taking part in the present conditions highlighted
above. As such, have included a slight chance of PoP in the
southwest, with expectations for things to dissipate over the next
couple of hours. With this, have incorporated the latest
satellite trends as well as include the latest T, Td, and wind
obs. The freshened up grids as well as new zones have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2022
It`s been another beautiful day across Eastern KY with partly cloudy
skies and temperatures this afternoon in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Latest RAP analysis shows a weak shortwave off to our west over
western KY/TN, and CAMS are still trying to squeak out some light
precip this afternoon along the I-75 corridor ahead of the trough
axis. Soundings show the low levels are dry and there`s just shallow
moisture at the mid levels, so anything that does try to develop
will be short-lived and won`t be much more than a few sprinkles or
possibly a light rain shower. PoPs have been kept under 15% along
and west of I-75 this afternoon.
The SCT Cumulus will dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime
heating and it will be mostly clear tonight and much of the
overnight period with some high clouds moving in from the west
towards daybreak on Monday. Overnight lows will range from the
middle 50s in the deeper valleys, to upper 50s and lower 60s
elsewhere. Any fog development will be confined to the typical river
valleys.
On Monday surface low pressure currently over the central plains
will drift E/NE into the Mid MS valley and eventually into the Great
Lakes region by Monday night into Tuesday morning. A cold front
associated with this system will reach the Mid MS valley by Monday
evening and western portions of the OH valley by Tuesday morning. At
the upper levels, a more potent shortwave over the central plains
Monday morning will advance eastward towards the OH valley by Monday
night and cross our area overnight into Tuesday morning. Most of
Monday will be dry, with slight chance PoPs entering the western
portions of the forecast area during the late afternoon into early
evening. Better chances for showers and storms will occur Monday
night and overnight into Tuesday morning as the shortwave crosses
the area. High temps on Monday will be in the lower to middle 80s,
and low temps Monday night will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2022
The long term period continues to look active with several rounds of
showers/storms expected as a shortwave party passes over eastern
Kentucky. The upper level pattern will start out with ridging off
the east Coast and extending northward over the Northeast while a
large trough sits over central Ontario. Zonal flow will extend from
the west coast through the Ohio Valley with an area of high pressure
centered over Texas. At the surface, an area of low pressure will be
supported by the upper level trough in eastern Ontario with a cold
front draped through the Ohio Vally and into the Mississipi Valley
and southern Plains. By 12Z Wednesday, the trough axis will tilt to
be more northwest to southeast oriented and further to the northeast.
The cold front at the surface will now be draped through the
Northeast and southern Ohio Valley with the front stalling out near
the mid Mississippi Valley and Plains as another area of low
pressure develops near northeast Oklahoma/southeast Kansas. Several
shortwaves will ride along the boundary Thursday through Thursday
and will support shower and thunderstorm development. The cold front
eventually works its way though eastern Kentucky and high pressure
tries to sneak into the area from the west. This will allow for a
short period of dry weather around Thursday evening through Thursday
night. Toward the end of the work week, the pattern amplifies with
troughing over the eastern CONUS and a large ridge building over the
west. A short wave moving moving through the flow will bring a
renewed chance for showers and storms to the area Saturday.
Sensible weather will be wet with several rounds of showers and
storms expected as a cold front stalls north of the area and a train
of short waves pass along the boundary. Temperatures will start out
in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday through Friday. Saturday will be
cooler and more below normal with highs in the low to mid 70s
expected. Overnight temps will be mild with lows only dropping into
the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2022
VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout the TAF period.
Some patchy river valley fog will likely develop overnight, but
should not impact flight categories at any site. High clouds as
well as scattered 5k-8k Cu will work in late morning to early
afternoon Monday, with winds picking up out of the south as well.
As such, gusts of 15-20 kts will be possible for LOZ and SME
during the afternoon, while remaining sites generally blow at
less than 10 kts. Winds tonight will be light and variable, with
mostly clear skies for most.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BB
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM...BATZ
AVIATION...BB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1005 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
.UPDATE...
Another quiet night on tap for the Mid-South. Current
temperatures are in the low 70s, with forecasted lows tonight in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Radar imagry shows light showers just
to our west in eastern Arkansas. We could see some shower
development across the area in the next hour in northeast Arkansas
and the Missouri Bootheel. If any showers develop, they should
remain light, then increase in intensity by morning. Made some
slight changes to PoPs, otherwise the rest of the forecast looks
to be on track.
SWB
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022/
DISCUSSION...
Midsouth weather will become a little more unsettled by Monday
morning, with the arrival of a weakening MCS from the central
plains. This feature may regain strength by midday Monday, aided
by convective destabilization, and the passage of a convectively-
enhanced vorticity maximum, which will enhance deep layers shear
and storm organization and persistence. NAM model depicted a 60KT
700mb rear inflow jet, the HRRR was a little further north,
depicting a 70KT 700mb speed maximum over southeast MO at 21Z
Monday. SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook has nearly all the Midsouth
covered under a Marginal Risk, with damaging winds the primary
threat. Midlevel lapse rates will also support a large hail
threat, mainly north of I-40 Monday afternoon.
West/northwest flow aloft will continue through midweek, with
medium range model consensus depicting a near repeat of Monday on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Not all of the Midsouth will experience
storms over the next three days, particularly northwest and north
central MS. This may change by Thursday, as the Wednesday night
upstream source region of storms shifts southward to the southern
plains and drier surface high pressure briefly settles into areas
along and north of I-40 on Thursday.
12Z medium range models were consistent in bringing another MCS
from the central plains into the Midsouth Friday night. This
appears tied to the passage of midlevel trof embedded in
northwesterly flow aloft.
The pattern should dry up by late Saturday and Sunday, as the
eastern CONUS longwave trof shifts east and the southern plains
upper level ridge expands into the lower MS River valley.
Beyond next weekend, GFS develops an unusually strong 599dm 500mb
height ridge centered over the Midsouth. However, this was not
corroborated by the ensemble means of the GFS or ECMWF, which
depicted a less amplified pattern. That said, positive height
anomalies still appear a good bet over the Midsouth, along with
above normal surface temperatures for mid-June.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the overnight hours. We
will be watching as showers and storms approach the forecast area
by 14Z Monday. Have included VCSH at all sites tomorrow and will
most likely include prevailing TSRA at some point in the day for
a few hours. Will have to nail down timing with next update. Winds
are generally light and southerly overnight, picking up to
southwesterly around 10kt by mid morning tomorrow.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Today and Tonight...
Stubborn patchy dense fog lingered over northeast Nebraska through
the morning, dropping visibilities to a quarter of a mile or less,
from Norfolk through Wayne. A weakening MCS drifted out of north-
central NE/southern South Dakota and into northeast Nebraska this
morning, which appeared to help to finally clear up some of the
fog.
Meanwhile, around 1000 J/kg of instability and steepening lapse
rates over central Nebraska allowed a few storms to pop late this
morning. While one or two of these initial cells has shown promise
in being capable of producing a bit of hail and some gusty winds,
they have generally fallen apart as they approach the OAX CWA.
This evening, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop even farther to our west, over central Nebraska, along a
stalled boundary that has set up over the region. Steep mid-level
lapse rates, 30 kts of bulk shear, and a surge of moisture returning
to central Nebraska will bring a better shot for severe weather this
evening, from around 6 PM through midnight. One caveat here would be
if morning convection leaves behind an overworked atmosphere, which
would be inhospitable for severe updrafts. In this scenario, the
better chance for stronger storms would be mainly south of the
Platte River, in areas unaffected by earlier convection. A few runs
of the HRRR also hint at another line of convection developing over
northeast Nebraska, along the stationary boundary. If the
atmosphere has time to recover, these too could produce gusty winds
and hail.
Monday and Beyond...
A few spotty showers and thunderstorms look possible, Monday, however
no severe weather is expected at this time. Highs will top out in
the 70s each day, with periodic chances for precipitation. The next
chance for severe weather looks to arrive Thursday, when an MCS
could develop and pass through the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Thunderstorms have pushed east of the TAF sites for the time
being. Could see additional Thunderstorms at KLNK/KOMA 03-07z.
Secondary concern is potentially LIFR ceilings developing at KOFK
09-15z. MVFR ceilings developing KLNK/KOMA 11-20z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...DeWald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
724 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
The radar had been echo free all day until just a few minutes ago.
A broken line of showers has formed along what looks to be a
north-south oriented boundary situated near I-65. We have updated
the grids to add isolated showers for the next couple of hours to
account for the new cells. The evening sounding from OHX does show
some instability in place and also greatly increased precipitable
water compared to 24 hours ago. So the showers are not altogether
a surprise. The HRRR does keep widely scattered echoes in Middle
Tennessee until about 04Z, then a great deal more activity
developing during the day tomorrow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday Night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Quiet day so far across middle TN, with some cumulus building as a
weak shortwave sits overhead. Daytime heating may allow for some
isolated showers and even a thunderstorm to pop up this afternoon,
but CAMs continue to show inconsistent run to run coverage. Brief
shortwave ridging between troughs will be in place overnight, so
we should be dry before the first of many waves pass through this
week, keeping rain in the forecast.
Some instability will develop tomorrow afternoon ahead of the next
shortwave trough, and shear actually has increased slightly from
previous model runs. Right now it looks like the best chances for
any strong to severe storms will be in the northwest part of the
mid state Monday afternoon and evening, but even after diurnal
support is lost Monday evening, there still may be enough CAPE for
a strong storm or two Monday night. Moisture continues to stream
in from the south, and PWAT values climb to a little over 2 inches
Monday night, which may allow for some heavy rainfall. Any
training of stronger showers or storms may lead to some localized
flooding by Tuesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Tuesday will see rain ongoing as the shortwave trough moves to the
northeast, and a weak cold front moves through the area. Another
short wave will be quick to move in behind, and chances for
showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday. The next
shortwave will help bring in more instability, and chances for
strong to severe storms will remain Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Wednesday morning may see a short break before yet another trough
moves in overhead, but models are not in agreement on the
potential break in the rain. Additional showers and thunderstorms
will continue Wednesday afternoon and evening before a more
defined break in the rain late Wednesday night through Thursday
with northwest flow aloft and no disturbances in the upper flow.
By Friday, a deeper Midwest trough looks to bring showers and
thunderstorms back to the region, spilling over into the day
Saturday. By Sunday though, a strong upper high and Plains ridging
will work its way east, and help keep us dry for awhile into next
week. But, with such high strong pressure on the GFS should that
solution pan out, we would be looking at highs in the low to even
mid 90s by next Wednesday. The ECMWF has more of a zonal flow
pattern by next week, and temps are not as warm, so will continue
to monitor and hopefully next week will trend closer to seasonal
normals for temps!
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Southerly return flow will begin to increase across the taf areas
through the period. Instabilities will increase on Monday afternoon.
As an approaching shortwave interacts with the unstable airmass,
thunderstorms may effect western taf areas after 18Z, A few of
these storms could produce come stronger wind gusts. Otherwise,
the CKV asos is not reporting. Thus AMD NOT SKED will be utilized.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 67 89 70 87 / 20 40 50 70
Clarksville 64 87 68 86 / 20 50 50 70
Crossville 60 81 64 80 / 10 30 40 60
Columbia 65 89 68 87 / 20 30 40 60
Cookeville 64 85 67 83 / 10 40 50 70
Jamestown 60 83 64 81 / 10 30 50 70
Lawrenceburg 64 88 68 86 / 20 30 40 60
Murfreesboro 65 90 68 88 / 20 30 50 60
Waverly 65 89 68 86 / 20 50 50 60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
857 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 851 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
A rather tight west to east instability gradient exists this
evening from central into eastern OK, although the atmosphere
has recovered to some degree across our region. Newly developed
convection across southern KS is expected to expand in coverage
as the low-level jet strengthens and translates east overnight,
with organized storms moving into parts of northeast OK toward
midnight. 00Z HRRR seems to have a reasonable handle on the
situation, with storms dropping southeast overnight, eventually
into western AR/southeast OK late tonight. Initial activity may
have a large hail threat, but expect damaging winds to be the
main concern overnight.
Have made adjustments to overnight PoPs closely based on the
recent HRRR output.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Whatever is left of the overnight MCS should shift east of the
area much earlier in the day Monday, allowing for a warmer
afternoon. Additional MCS development is likely most every night
this coming week, with Tuesday night and Thursday night showing
the strongest signals for significant storm complexes.
A cold front will move through the area by next weekend ending the
MCS train, but any cooler weather in its wake will be short lived
as upper ridging looks to take over by early in the following
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022
Stable airmass remains across portions of eastern Oklahoma in the
wake of the MCS moving through southern Arkansas. A few showers
persist along the periphery of the cloud shield across northwest
Arkansas where some localized instability exists but these have
moved east of the terminals. Timing with the next round of
convection expected to develop or move into far northern Oklahoma
by 04Z remains somewhat uncertain. A strong low level jet is
forecast to develop within a zone of elevated instability from
northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas. Scattered storms should
form within this area and develop into another forward
propagating MCS overnight. Southward extent of resulting broken
line of storms is most uncertain given need for airmass to
recover. Generally left tempo groups with MVFR conditions and
gusty winds in thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma TAF sites
through daybreak with conditions lingering a bit longer across
northwest Arkansas and more optimistic forecast at KMLC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 66 88 70 86 / 90 10 30 50
FSM 68 89 73 89 / 80 40 20 40
MLC 69 89 73 89 / 70 10 20 20
BVO 65 85 67 84 / 90 10 40 50
FYV 64 84 66 83 / 80 30 30 60
BYV 63 84 66 82 / 80 30 30 70
MKO 68 87 71 87 / 70 20 20 40
MIO 64 84 66 82 / 80 30 40 70
F10 68 87 71 87 / 60 0 20 30
HHW 70 91 72 92 / 60 10 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24