Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/06/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
641 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Removed the mention of thunder this evening. Precip to the east has been mostly stratiform in nature and showers across western SD have not contained any lightning so far. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track this evening with no changes planned to temps or pops. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Showers and thunderstorms continue into tonight with mostly cloudy skies. Otherwise, cooler than average temperatures expected for the start of the week with continuing chances of rain off and on through early Tuesday. A 500mb, a low continues to stay pretty much stationary and continuing to spin over Ontario which will finally start pushing each towards the end of next week. Otherwise, a weak upper level ridge just to our west, with a troughing pattern across the western part of the United States. This puts most of the CWA in a northwest flow aloft before the ridge flattens out by the western trough (and another shortwave) and we will then have more of a quasi-zonal/zonal flow through Tuesday. With this low spinning to our north and this flow aloft, shortwave energy continues to move across the area which helps aid in chances of precipitation through Tuesday. At the surface, a stationary front is draped across the upper parts of the Midwest and another one to our south with a surface low that will push across the area. Instability wise, surface winds continue out of the east/southeast and dewpoints by 00Z will increase into the upper 50s/lower 60s across our southern CWA giving us that moisture at the surface for lifting. HRRR model indicates ML CAPE values low north of Pierre with values 400-500 J/KG in our southern counties by 00Z. HREF/HRRR MUCAPE/SBCAPE values 500~1300 J/KG are expected across parts of our south-central/southern counties by 00Z which indicates the atmosphere is marginally/mod unstable. ECMWF-HiRes keeps most of the higher CAPE/instability well to our south in NE/KS. In our southern CWA, along with the higher CAPE and DP, lapse rates (HRRR) do increase 5-6 degrees C/km^-1 which will aid in vigorous convection that could produce stronger thunderstorms. HREF 0-1 KM bulk shear values remain low with 0-6M shear values 30-40 kts. This indicates the possibility of organized storms with hail (quarter size) being the main concern. CAPE values decrease overnight for that area. CAMs/radar indicates scattered rain showers continuing from west to east this evening with HREF keeping the probability of thunderstorms chances low (but not out of the question) for much of the central and northern CWA with better thunderstorms chances in our southern CWA, as mentioned, where there is better instability. Few of the CAM models keep the possibility of some rain showers lingering tonight. mainly in our western CWA. More rain will move west to east back into the region for Monday as a shortwave pushes through. More chances of rain continue Monday night into Tuesday. Overall, 48-hour QPF starting at 00Z Monday-Wednesday range to around half an inch in our western CWA to around 0.15 of an inch in our eastern CWA. Some areas could see localized higher amounts with thunderstorms. Lows overnight will be a little cooler ranging in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Cooler than average temperatures for Monday with highs mainly in the mid-upper 60s which continue into Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 The long term begins with positive tilt upper troffing over eastern and central Canada, and ridging over the west coast of the CONUS. Through the time period, the west coast ridge builds in strength and expands into the Rockies, as troffing deepens over the eastern CONUS. Early in the period, with general troffing overhead, there looks to be a decent chance of showers/storms Tuesday into Tuesday night. Then it looks like a brief reprieve on Wednesday before more rain moves into the area Thursday through Friday. Next weekend should feature lower rain chances. That all said, this active pattern makes timing difficult, so forecast confidence is moderate at best pertaining to the PoP forecast. Lastly, based on temp anomaly forecasts from the EPS/GEFS, overall, temperatures are expected to be near to below normal through much of the long term forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will mix with MVFR cigs, at times, tonight in ongoing showers. Winds will remain light. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wise SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM...TDK AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
629 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Key Messages: - Rain with a Few Storms through Tonight/Potential for Heavy Rain - Below Normal Temperatures into Next Week - Continued On and Off Rain Chances Throughout the Week Water vapor satellite imagery, lightning, and radar show westerly flow with embedded shortwave troughs. Closed low pressure at 500mb was noted over Ontario. One shortwave is over eastern KS/OK with another shortwave trough over the western High Plains. The late morning 88-D radar mosaic had showers in a west to east band near the 850mb warm front over southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin and just north of the subjective analysis of the surface warm front in north central Iowa. Additional storms were noted over South Dakota and Nebraska closer to the warm front there and approaching short wave trough. Lightning was most active with the storms developing over Nebraska and the cluster of storms with the MCV (mesoscale vorticity center) over Oklahoma. By early afternoon, we are still have some spotty showers locally, with a band of showers and storms increasing over northwest Iowa and moreso over the Plains with the shortwave and additional storms across parts of the U.P. of Michigan. The pattern aloft through Monday morning is for the closed low over Ontario pivot through the Upper Great Lakes as embedded shortwave trough energy tracks across the Plains into MN/IA/WI. Deep moisture was seen on the morning 850mb maps with 10 to 16 deg 850mb dewpoints from IA/SD southward and variable amounts of 700mb moisture 3-6 deg C pooled over parts of this same area. 850mb moisture transport vectors are most robust across parts of OK/KS/MO...however there is is moisture transport across Iowa into Wisconsin, shifting east by 12Z. A 90 to 100kt jet over the Upper Mississippi Valley dives southeast through Monday morning with some upper level divergence across the forecast area. 700mb warm advection strengthens this evening and generally pushes east by 12Z. 850mb warm air advection has been present through the day and was supposed to strengthen again this evening. Recent runs off the NAM have backed off that, delaying the stronger winds until after 03Z and shifting it eastward and the 925mb winds are noticeably weaker compared to the 00Z run. The 50th percentile for precipitation is around .1 to 0.3" and the 90th percentile is 0.50 to 0.75 for this evening. The latest NBM 4.1 still has a 50 to 80 percent probability for .25" of rainfall and 40 to 60 percent for .5" or more over the tri- state area, but has decreased the 1" or more probability to 10 to 20 percent. The 06.05 06Z GEFs mean at LSE/RST is around 0.6" and for RST. The pattern in general still has some positives for locally heavy rain with the theta-e advection into the area this afternoon and through the overnight hours, increasing precipitable water to 1.2-1.7", 95% relative humidity from 1000- 500mb, supportive thickness diffluence, the 850mb front in the area, and slower storm motions from 240 to 270 deg at 15 to 20kts. Still think some higher rain totals (2-3"+) could occur due to these factors being in place/training of storms. We`ve had some good recent rains over the last couple of weeks (100-150% of normal) and the 1hr flash flood guidance is 1 to 2 inches-the 3/6-hr flash flood guidance is 2 to 3 inches. The Weather Prediction Center still has us in a marginal risk for flash flooding and this is reasonable should some of these higher rains materialize. The SBCAPE/MLCAPE remains best to the southwest/south of the forecast area. The RAP has MUCAPE of 100 J/kg to 800 J/kg south of I90 late this afternoon into this evening with a pocket of higher instability 1000-2000J/kg skirting our southern counties. With the 850mb pattern, elevated instability does make it north toward I90 and I94. The models vary on the shear placement with some models closer to the tri-state area and others have the 35 to 50kt deep layer shear will farther north. Will continue to mention thunder where elevated instability is expected. Severe threat continues to look low with instability/shear not lining up. The latest SPC mesoanalysis graphics still show lower severe threat as the storms move into northeast Iowa away from the better instability, but cannot rule out stronger to marginal severe storms being so close to the instability gradient, steep low level lapse rates, freezing levels not as high as they could be this time of year and with the shortwave tracking across the area. Monday we dry out in the mid levels, however there may still be enough residual moisture later in the afternoon with heating to develop spotty showers. The HRRR/RAP/WRFARW/GFS are showing this. The NAM also shows a few overnight showers with shortwave trough energy, while the GFS is dry. A better chance for showers/a few storms is Tuesday night into Wednesday with the next shortwave trough that rotates from Montana and the Dakotas into the region. The timing may change, but will see an increasing chance for rain again Thursday into Friday. High temperatures remain below normal for much of the week with readings in the 60s and 70s. It looks like warmer temperatures close to normal though by the end of the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Regional radars showing some convective activity south of both airports along the warm front stretched out across northern Iowa. Most of the CAMS do not show this front or activity making much if any northward progress this evening which is expected to keep the potential for any storms to the south as well. Based on this idea, have removed all the thunder mention from both forecasts. There is a band of light showers in the Interstate 90 corridor that could bring some occasional visibility reductions to both sites for a while this evening before moving off the east by mid-evening. It will also help to further moisten the boundary layer which should promote the development of MVFR and IFR ceilings for both sites. These should then remain through much of Monday morning before lifting up to MVFR. Possible that the clouds could scatter out Monday afternoon for VFR conditions but for now, plan to address this trend with later forecasts. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Zapotocny AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 The upper level low continues to remain nearly stationary across Ontario, resulting in weak upper level ridging to zonal flow dominating the upper levels with several short wave disturbances propagating within the flow across the Intermountain West. Current radar imagery has been tracking convection developing across Dawes County and pushing eastward across Chadron, before intensifying just eastward into Sheridan County. As mentioned by the previous shift, thermodynamic profiles remain favorable with a marginal risk extending into the eastern Nebraska Panhandle, and the main threats including strong winds and hail up to a nickel in size. Definitely some rotation in the atmosphere, with a cold air funnel reported near Chadron earlier today. As a result, will need to closely monitor Dawes, Sioux, and Box Butte Counties with any convective development. Nevertheless, HiRes model guidance points to possibly a later event tonight, with CAMs pushing much better convection eastward shortly before midnight. Analyzing the severe threat for Monday, there is a fair amount of model uncertainty in the near term forecast, and ultimately depends on which model is able to adequately find a solution to the thermodynamic profiles and upper level support. Current medium range deterministic model solutions, particularly the NAMNST, have pushed a much more impactful event where the ingredients are coming together a bit better for the far eastern portion of southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. These forecast soundings have around 2100 J/kg of MUCAPE, excellent speed and directional shear with a humped hodograph and effective bulk wind differences at 55 kts, LCLs below 1km, precipitable water above an inch, and very little CIN. On the opposite end, the short range RAP has a much less impactful system across the CWA, and keeps most of the better convection just out of reach to the east/northeast. The short range forecast soundings targeted for late afternoon/early evening tomorrow have much less MUCAPE hovering on the north side of 700 J/kg, no real directional shear to speak of, LCLs climbing above 2km, precipitable water below average, CIN at -110 J/kg, and the significant hail parameter hovering around 0.3. Main difficulties will remain with where the upper level jet sets up and surface dewpoints across the Nebraska Panhandle. If the jet is able to shift further southward or slightly slow down, it could set up in a much more favorable location for upward vertical motion. In addition, surface dewpoints remain less favorable with high 40s across the majority of the domain, except across Dawes County where dewpoints increase to the mid-50s. Ultimately, if the environment favors the NAMNST solution, severe storms will be much more favorable with the convective temperatures easily being reached and storms able to fire with little convective inhibition, primarily in the northern zones of the CWA, and across Dawes/Sioux Counties. However, confidence remains low at this time with too much model uncertainty to nail down exact impacts. Will need to monitor over the next 24 hours and see how everything shapes up. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 CWA stays in fast zonal flow Tuesday with an upper shortwave passing across northern Wyoming during the afternoon. Models in good agreement with showers/storms across the northern Panhandle as well as northern Converse/Niobrara Counties Tuesday afternoon. Surface boundary continues to lay over the Nebraska Panhandle into the southeast Wyoming plains early Wednesday before shifting east as upper ridge builds into the area from the west. Looks like dry weather as ridge builds overhead into Thursday. Likely a dry period ahead for this time as front well east of the Panhandle. Will have to wait and see if this materializes. Temperatures a small concern as GFS 700mb temperatures climb into the mid teens Thursday afternoon. Did go a little higher than guidance on highs Thursday through Saturday. Ridge axis exits east Saturday afternoon for a return of unsettled weather for Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 521 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Wyoming TAFS...VFR. Thunderstorms in the vicinity at Laramie and Cheyenne until 02Z. Wind gusts to 33 knots at all terminals until 03Z, then gusts to 34 knots after 15Z Monday. Nebraska TAFS...VFR, except for IFR at Chadron and Alliance from 07Z to 15Z. Thunderstorms in the vicinity at Sidney until 03Z. Wind gusts to 25 knots at all terminals until 03Z, then gusts to 24 knots at Scottsbluff and Sidney after 15Z Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 119 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected. Widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are forecast through Tuesday. Ongoing green-up and wetting rain chances will keep fire weather concerns at a minimum. Gusty/erratic winds and lightning will be the main hazards, with small hail possible in the vicinity of the stronger thunderstorms. Daily temperatures will average near to slightly above seasonal normals. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1011 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1011 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Front has pushed south, and there has been an increase in gusts behind this with brief gusts reported around 35 mph in the southern RRV (mainly KFAR). After this immediate period of gusty winds we may continue to see sustained winds in the 10-20 mph for parts of the RRV due to the northerly flow down the valley, and at least some lingering pressure gradient behind the front. Dry air in place (Td depressions 20-30F) continues to limit precipitation as the showers struggle to move east into our area. Still think sprinkles or virga are favored if anything at all occurs as this wave continues eastward. UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Upstream radar returns are struggling to hold together as they move into our area where drier air and much more stable mid level lapse rates are in place. Still, there is still potential for these showers to move across southern parts of our CWA as this weak mid level wave passes, and light accumulations are possible through the evening hours in our far south. Overall, not a lot has changed from previous forecast, and only minor adjustments were necessary. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 The upper level flow pattern across the short term will continue to be dictated by an upper low churning over southern Ontario and the northern Great Lakes. This will result in weak west-northwesterly flow aloft that is expected to persist into Monday. A further southward shortwave traveling through stronger zonal flow further upstream will also bring some precipitation impacts to the region late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Despite mostly sunny skies during the early afternoon hours, there is minimal moisture present with dewpoint temperatures in the 30s to low 40s. Resultant MUCAPE values of only a few hundred J/kg are also evident via SPC RAP Mesoanalysis. Given the forcing from the approaching shortwave, some rain shower activity is expected across southeastern North Dakota, although it will need to overcome some dry air for anything to reach the surface. Regardless, with the limited instabilty, not anticipating anything more than a few rumbles of thunder at most to accompany these showers. Winds will remain gusty at times this afternoon but should level off as the sun goes down, becoming more steady in the 5-10 kt range out of the east-northeast overnight. Monday then looks to have a similar feel to it as weak high pressure works its way into the region. Breezy winds out of the northeast and cooler than normal temperatures in the 60 to low 70s are once again expected. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Impacts... * Quiet weather will persist with multiple shots for a few showers here and there, but other than that no major impacts from weather are anticipated at this time. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS... The big feature of the next week will be large scale ridging and northwesterly flow across the area. With how dry the airmass is and with multiple shortwaves expected to intermingle within the flow, there isn`t much in the way for significant impacts expected in the long term period. A bit of a stronger signal for impactful weather does arise by midweek, although predictability is low at this time. Within a few of these shortwaves, some showers may occur, although looking at MUCAPE fields does put a bit of a damper on thunderstorm chances (no pun intended). Towards the end of the period, there does appear to be some indications for potential southwest flow returning by next weekend, although, again, predictability is low. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period, with northeast winds decreasing after sunset this evening and increasing once again during the daytime period Monday. In the north these winds may shift more to the north and become light and variable. A few showers or virga will be possible mainly in southeast ND and may move within the vicinity of KFAR this evening (low confidence in coverage that far north and east). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...Rick LONG TERM...Perroux AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
823 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 820 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Dundy County in Nebraska, Cheyenne County in Kansas along with Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado have been removed from the Severe Thunderstorm Watch as atmospheric conditions have stabilized. The remaining counties remain in the watch with an hour long extension until 10pm MDT/11pm CDT due to continued persistent supercells east of Goodland and over Oberlin. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Morning) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 The main story for the short term period will be the multiple days of severe weather potential. SPC has an Enhanced risk of severe weather along and east of Highway 25 with a slight risk to the west. Recent CAMS indicate initiation across Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO) between 19-21Z. RAP forecast soundings indicate a very unstable air mass developing with 2500-3500 j/kg of MLCAPE and ~4000 j/kg of MUCAPE. MUCAPE of this magnitude plus 0-6 wind shear of 35-45 knots will support the potential for hail greater than 2 inches in diameter. The storms will grow upscale into a cluster after 6pm MT, as a bowing segment will develop across eastern portions of the area with 70+ mph winds possible. A tornado threat is possible, especially during the early evening hours as the LLJ begins to ramp up, but am currently expecting any potential tornado threat to be confined to any storm mergers and boundary ingestion (similar to last night) with a quick spin up possible. The severe storms are expected to be out of the CWA around 10pm MT. Monday, the active weather continues across the area as a warm front moves northward out of Oklahoma into the area which will allow moist air to advect into the CWA. A shortwave comes out of the Rockies which will be the focus for storms during the afternoon hours, with again with severe potential as large hail, damaging winds and some tornadoes possible. The tornado potential will look to be along the warm front. The strong moisture advection will also lead to the potential for some flash flooding concerns, especially for areas that has received the most rainfall over the pas few days. High temperatures for the day are currently forecasted to be in the 80s across the entire area along with overnight lows falling into the 50s. Into Tuesday, yet another chance for thunderstorms exists as another wave moves into the area as an MCS develops. This will again bring the potential for more flash flooding concerns, dependent on where the heaviest rainfall falls the previous days. There is currently some uncertainty with how widespread and the magnitude the severe potential will be as convection/lingering cloud cover will more than likely remain present during the morning hours. Currently, the main threats look to be large hail and damaging winds along with the heavy rainfall potential. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 The long term period starts out with northwesterly flow as a weak ridge remains across the western CONUS. Moisture will still be present across the area, but the potential doesn`t look as good for widespread showers and storms for the area, however isolated to widely scattered precipitation still looks to be a possibility. High temperatures for Wednesday are currently forecasted to be cooler in the 70s across the area as cloud cover is anticipated to last throughout the day. Thursday, the same synoptic pattern remains with the exception of a stronger shortwave being present within the overall flow. Showers and storms will be possible, with a chance for severe again returning to the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Confidence is not overly high at this time to pinpoint exact hazards and locations for the severe potential but at this time it appears that some risk does exist. Warmer temperatures return as high temperatures are forecasted to be in the 80s along with breezy southerly winds with gusts of 25-35 mph. The latter portion of the extended period has the ridge over the western CONUS amplifying a bit as high pressure builds into the SW portion of the country. Depending on how far north the high pressure can make it into the CWA will dictate any further shower and storm chances as guidance indicates the potential for some additional disturbances moving off of the Rockies and into the plains. An even warmer trend is expected to begin in part to the high pressure with highs in the 80s before the potential for 90s returns by next Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 520 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Currently watching storms move into SW Nebraska from the Nebraska Panhandle, the anticipation is they will become severe as they move into the KMCK terminal near 01Z, will continue watching trends for any changes of speed as they approach the terminal. Confidence continues to wane if KGLD will see storms so will keep VCTS as the best forcing for storms enters the area. Storms will exit the area around 03Z as wins will turn to the SSE before becoming more northerly towards the end of the period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...Trigg
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2022 Showers have been isolated and confined to the boundary along the southwest. Mesoscale analysis highlighted sufficient instability in Middle TN and KY, which allowed for a few mostly shallow showers to develop in these locations and into our southwest. These have continued to dissipate as they work east where instability wanes and much drier air is in place. Hi-Res guidance suggests most of the area to remain rain and cloud free overnight, though a few isolated showers can`t be ruled out near dawn along the western fringes of the CWA as the boundary lifts back north towards the Great Lakes. Given the low end confidence in this activity developing, have kept the current forecast as is. The primary update was with temperatures, as deeper eastern valleys are falling off quicker than forecast. Given a set up similar to the previous night and the on going trends, have nudged down lows in a few usually cooler running spots. Have also incorporated the latest satellite trends as well as loading and blending the latest dewpoint and wind obs. Grids have been sent to NDFD and Webfarms. UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2022 A similar set up in terms of downslope flow this afternoon, but seeing an area of convergence along the western half of the CWA. This is highlighted within surface winds, the higher dews in the west, and visualized on satellite as well. A cu field has been confined here in the most recent few hours, with some very isolated blips popping up on radar in Wayne County and the far southwest. The frontal boundary once across the Ohio Valley has dipped south, taking part in the present conditions highlighted above. As such, have included a slight chance of PoP in the southwest, with expectations for things to dissipate over the next couple of hours. With this, have incorporated the latest satellite trends as well as include the latest T, Td, and wind obs. The freshened up grids as well as new zones have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2022 It`s been another beautiful day across Eastern KY with partly cloudy skies and temperatures this afternoon in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Latest RAP analysis shows a weak shortwave off to our west over western KY/TN, and CAMS are still trying to squeak out some light precip this afternoon along the I-75 corridor ahead of the trough axis. Soundings show the low levels are dry and there`s just shallow moisture at the mid levels, so anything that does try to develop will be short-lived and won`t be much more than a few sprinkles or possibly a light rain shower. PoPs have been kept under 15% along and west of I-75 this afternoon. The SCT Cumulus will dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating and it will be mostly clear tonight and much of the overnight period with some high clouds moving in from the west towards daybreak on Monday. Overnight lows will range from the middle 50s in the deeper valleys, to upper 50s and lower 60s elsewhere. Any fog development will be confined to the typical river valleys. On Monday surface low pressure currently over the central plains will drift E/NE into the Mid MS valley and eventually into the Great Lakes region by Monday night into Tuesday morning. A cold front associated with this system will reach the Mid MS valley by Monday evening and western portions of the OH valley by Tuesday morning. At the upper levels, a more potent shortwave over the central plains Monday morning will advance eastward towards the OH valley by Monday night and cross our area overnight into Tuesday morning. Most of Monday will be dry, with slight chance PoPs entering the western portions of the forecast area during the late afternoon into early evening. Better chances for showers and storms will occur Monday night and overnight into Tuesday morning as the shortwave crosses the area. High temps on Monday will be in the lower to middle 80s, and low temps Monday night will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2022 The long term period continues to look active with several rounds of showers/storms expected as a shortwave party passes over eastern Kentucky. The upper level pattern will start out with ridging off the east Coast and extending northward over the Northeast while a large trough sits over central Ontario. Zonal flow will extend from the west coast through the Ohio Valley with an area of high pressure centered over Texas. At the surface, an area of low pressure will be supported by the upper level trough in eastern Ontario with a cold front draped through the Ohio Vally and into the Mississipi Valley and southern Plains. By 12Z Wednesday, the trough axis will tilt to be more northwest to southeast oriented and further to the northeast. The cold front at the surface will now be draped through the Northeast and southern Ohio Valley with the front stalling out near the mid Mississippi Valley and Plains as another area of low pressure develops near northeast Oklahoma/southeast Kansas. Several shortwaves will ride along the boundary Thursday through Thursday and will support shower and thunderstorm development. The cold front eventually works its way though eastern Kentucky and high pressure tries to sneak into the area from the west. This will allow for a short period of dry weather around Thursday evening through Thursday night. Toward the end of the work week, the pattern amplifies with troughing over the eastern CONUS and a large ridge building over the west. A short wave moving moving through the flow will bring a renewed chance for showers and storms to the area Saturday. Sensible weather will be wet with several rounds of showers and storms expected as a cold front stalls north of the area and a train of short waves pass along the boundary. Temperatures will start out in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday through Friday. Saturday will be cooler and more below normal with highs in the low to mid 70s expected. Overnight temps will be mild with lows only dropping into the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2022 VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout the TAF period. Some patchy river valley fog will likely develop overnight, but should not impact flight categories at any site. High clouds as well as scattered 5k-8k Cu will work in late morning to early afternoon Monday, with winds picking up out of the south as well. As such, gusts of 15-20 kts will be possible for LOZ and SME during the afternoon, while remaining sites generally blow at less than 10 kts. Winds tonight will be light and variable, with mostly clear skies for most. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BB SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...BATZ AVIATION...BB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1005 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 .UPDATE... Another quiet night on tap for the Mid-South. Current temperatures are in the low 70s, with forecasted lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Radar imagry shows light showers just to our west in eastern Arkansas. We could see some shower development across the area in the next hour in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. If any showers develop, they should remain light, then increase in intensity by morning. Made some slight changes to PoPs, otherwise the rest of the forecast looks to be on track. SWB && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022/ DISCUSSION... Midsouth weather will become a little more unsettled by Monday morning, with the arrival of a weakening MCS from the central plains. This feature may regain strength by midday Monday, aided by convective destabilization, and the passage of a convectively- enhanced vorticity maximum, which will enhance deep layers shear and storm organization and persistence. NAM model depicted a 60KT 700mb rear inflow jet, the HRRR was a little further north, depicting a 70KT 700mb speed maximum over southeast MO at 21Z Monday. SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook has nearly all the Midsouth covered under a Marginal Risk, with damaging winds the primary threat. Midlevel lapse rates will also support a large hail threat, mainly north of I-40 Monday afternoon. West/northwest flow aloft will continue through midweek, with medium range model consensus depicting a near repeat of Monday on Tuesday and Wednesday. Not all of the Midsouth will experience storms over the next three days, particularly northwest and north central MS. This may change by Thursday, as the Wednesday night upstream source region of storms shifts southward to the southern plains and drier surface high pressure briefly settles into areas along and north of I-40 on Thursday. 12Z medium range models were consistent in bringing another MCS from the central plains into the Midsouth Friday night. This appears tied to the passage of midlevel trof embedded in northwesterly flow aloft. The pattern should dry up by late Saturday and Sunday, as the eastern CONUS longwave trof shifts east and the southern plains upper level ridge expands into the lower MS River valley. Beyond next weekend, GFS develops an unusually strong 599dm 500mb height ridge centered over the Midsouth. However, this was not corroborated by the ensemble means of the GFS or ECMWF, which depicted a less amplified pattern. That said, positive height anomalies still appear a good bet over the Midsouth, along with above normal surface temperatures for mid-June. PWB && .AVIATION... Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the overnight hours. We will be watching as showers and storms approach the forecast area by 14Z Monday. Have included VCSH at all sites tomorrow and will most likely include prevailing TSRA at some point in the day for a few hours. Will have to nail down timing with next update. Winds are generally light and southerly overnight, picking up to southwesterly around 10kt by mid morning tomorrow. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Today and Tonight... Stubborn patchy dense fog lingered over northeast Nebraska through the morning, dropping visibilities to a quarter of a mile or less, from Norfolk through Wayne. A weakening MCS drifted out of north- central NE/southern South Dakota and into northeast Nebraska this morning, which appeared to help to finally clear up some of the fog. Meanwhile, around 1000 J/kg of instability and steepening lapse rates over central Nebraska allowed a few storms to pop late this morning. While one or two of these initial cells has shown promise in being capable of producing a bit of hail and some gusty winds, they have generally fallen apart as they approach the OAX CWA. This evening, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop even farther to our west, over central Nebraska, along a stalled boundary that has set up over the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates, 30 kts of bulk shear, and a surge of moisture returning to central Nebraska will bring a better shot for severe weather this evening, from around 6 PM through midnight. One caveat here would be if morning convection leaves behind an overworked atmosphere, which would be inhospitable for severe updrafts. In this scenario, the better chance for stronger storms would be mainly south of the Platte River, in areas unaffected by earlier convection. A few runs of the HRRR also hint at another line of convection developing over northeast Nebraska, along the stationary boundary. If the atmosphere has time to recover, these too could produce gusty winds and hail. Monday and Beyond... A few spotty showers and thunderstorms look possible, Monday, however no severe weather is expected at this time. Highs will top out in the 70s each day, with periodic chances for precipitation. The next chance for severe weather looks to arrive Thursday, when an MCS could develop and pass through the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Thunderstorms have pushed east of the TAF sites for the time being. Could see additional Thunderstorms at KLNK/KOMA 03-07z. Secondary concern is potentially LIFR ceilings developing at KOFK 09-15z. MVFR ceilings developing KLNK/KOMA 11-20z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...DeWald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
724 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 717 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 The radar had been echo free all day until just a few minutes ago. A broken line of showers has formed along what looks to be a north-south oriented boundary situated near I-65. We have updated the grids to add isolated showers for the next couple of hours to account for the new cells. The evening sounding from OHX does show some instability in place and also greatly increased precipitable water compared to 24 hours ago. So the showers are not altogether a surprise. The HRRR does keep widely scattered echoes in Middle Tennessee until about 04Z, then a great deal more activity developing during the day tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday Night) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Quiet day so far across middle TN, with some cumulus building as a weak shortwave sits overhead. Daytime heating may allow for some isolated showers and even a thunderstorm to pop up this afternoon, but CAMs continue to show inconsistent run to run coverage. Brief shortwave ridging between troughs will be in place overnight, so we should be dry before the first of many waves pass through this week, keeping rain in the forecast. Some instability will develop tomorrow afternoon ahead of the next shortwave trough, and shear actually has increased slightly from previous model runs. Right now it looks like the best chances for any strong to severe storms will be in the northwest part of the mid state Monday afternoon and evening, but even after diurnal support is lost Monday evening, there still may be enough CAPE for a strong storm or two Monday night. Moisture continues to stream in from the south, and PWAT values climb to a little over 2 inches Monday night, which may allow for some heavy rainfall. Any training of stronger showers or storms may lead to some localized flooding by Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Tuesday will see rain ongoing as the shortwave trough moves to the northeast, and a weak cold front moves through the area. Another short wave will be quick to move in behind, and chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday. The next shortwave will help bring in more instability, and chances for strong to severe storms will remain Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday morning may see a short break before yet another trough moves in overhead, but models are not in agreement on the potential break in the rain. Additional showers and thunderstorms will continue Wednesday afternoon and evening before a more defined break in the rain late Wednesday night through Thursday with northwest flow aloft and no disturbances in the upper flow. By Friday, a deeper Midwest trough looks to bring showers and thunderstorms back to the region, spilling over into the day Saturday. By Sunday though, a strong upper high and Plains ridging will work its way east, and help keep us dry for awhile into next week. But, with such high strong pressure on the GFS should that solution pan out, we would be looking at highs in the low to even mid 90s by next Wednesday. The ECMWF has more of a zonal flow pattern by next week, and temps are not as warm, so will continue to monitor and hopefully next week will trend closer to seasonal normals for temps! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Southerly return flow will begin to increase across the taf areas through the period. Instabilities will increase on Monday afternoon. As an approaching shortwave interacts with the unstable airmass, thunderstorms may effect western taf areas after 18Z, A few of these storms could produce come stronger wind gusts. Otherwise, the CKV asos is not reporting. Thus AMD NOT SKED will be utilized. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 67 89 70 87 / 20 40 50 70 Clarksville 64 87 68 86 / 20 50 50 70 Crossville 60 81 64 80 / 10 30 40 60 Columbia 65 89 68 87 / 20 30 40 60 Cookeville 64 85 67 83 / 10 40 50 70 Jamestown 60 83 64 81 / 10 30 50 70 Lawrenceburg 64 88 68 86 / 20 30 40 60 Murfreesboro 65 90 68 88 / 20 30 50 60 Waverly 65 89 68 86 / 20 50 50 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Rose SHORT TERM...Barnwell LONG TERM....Barnwell AVIATION.....21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
857 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 851 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 A rather tight west to east instability gradient exists this evening from central into eastern OK, although the atmosphere has recovered to some degree across our region. Newly developed convection across southern KS is expected to expand in coverage as the low-level jet strengthens and translates east overnight, with organized storms moving into parts of northeast OK toward midnight. 00Z HRRR seems to have a reasonable handle on the situation, with storms dropping southeast overnight, eventually into western AR/southeast OK late tonight. Initial activity may have a large hail threat, but expect damaging winds to be the main concern overnight. Have made adjustments to overnight PoPs closely based on the recent HRRR output. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Whatever is left of the overnight MCS should shift east of the area much earlier in the day Monday, allowing for a warmer afternoon. Additional MCS development is likely most every night this coming week, with Tuesday night and Thursday night showing the strongest signals for significant storm complexes. A cold front will move through the area by next weekend ending the MCS train, but any cooler weather in its wake will be short lived as upper ridging looks to take over by early in the following week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Stable airmass remains across portions of eastern Oklahoma in the wake of the MCS moving through southern Arkansas. A few showers persist along the periphery of the cloud shield across northwest Arkansas where some localized instability exists but these have moved east of the terminals. Timing with the next round of convection expected to develop or move into far northern Oklahoma by 04Z remains somewhat uncertain. A strong low level jet is forecast to develop within a zone of elevated instability from northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas. Scattered storms should form within this area and develop into another forward propagating MCS overnight. Southward extent of resulting broken line of storms is most uncertain given need for airmass to recover. Generally left tempo groups with MVFR conditions and gusty winds in thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma TAF sites through daybreak with conditions lingering a bit longer across northwest Arkansas and more optimistic forecast at KMLC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 66 88 70 86 / 90 10 30 50 FSM 68 89 73 89 / 80 40 20 40 MLC 69 89 73 89 / 70 10 20 20 BVO 65 85 67 84 / 90 10 40 50 FYV 64 84 66 83 / 80 30 30 60 BYV 63 84 66 82 / 80 30 30 70 MKO 68 87 71 87 / 70 20 20 40 MIO 64 84 66 82 / 80 30 40 70 F10 68 87 71 87 / 60 0 20 30 HHW 70 91 72 92 / 60 10 10 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...24