Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/05/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1056 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
Key Messages:
- A Few Storms Sunday/Sunday night and Potential for Heavy Rain
late Sunday Afternoon/Sunday Night
- Below Normal Temperatures into Next Week
- A Few Rain Chances Throughout the Week
Water vapor satellite imagery, lightning, and radar are doing a good
job picking up on the shortwave over eastern Kansas with some
northern energy into Neb/IA/southern MN. The shortwave will
continue to track to the east into IL through tonight with some
northern energy into the forecast area. Locally, there was some
stronger frontogenesis with the showers across parts of Iowa this
morning, with weaker frontogenesis across the area through tonight.
With heating this afternoon, the short-range hi-resolution models
show an increase in activity later this afternoon into the evening
and overnight hours especially south of I90. The surface based
instability stays to the south of the area through tonight, however
some weak elevated instability does lift into northeast Iowa and
parts of southern MN, so cannot rule out isolated thunder.
The pattern aloft has the closed low over Ontario dropping
southward, meanwhile shortwave trough energy...weak during the day
increases overnight Sunday with an 850mb thermal boundary across the
forecast area/frontogenesis. A stronger shortwave over western
Montana moves into the Northern Plains Sunday morning and pushes
east through Sunday night. Moisture transport increases per the
operational NAM/GFS/Canadian from Oklahoma into Iowa, towards KLSE
and into WI. Precipitable water values are an inch to 1.3", but
increase to 1.25 to 1.75" later Sunday and Sunday night. Instability
remains limited with the HREF mean MUCAPE of 0 to 250 J/kg tonight
and 250-750 J/kg Sunday and Sunday night south of I90. The NAM/ARW
models are a bit higher as the NAM has some 1500-2000 J/kg shear
approaching parts of NE IA. Deep layer shear is better 25 to 50kts
through 06Z Sunday evening. The NBM 50th percentile for rains south
of I94 are a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch, however the
90th percentile are an inch or 1.25 inches. The NBM 4.1 has a 65 or
70 percent chance of at least 0.1" Sunday night, a 50 percent
probability of .50" or more south of I94 Sunday night with a 20 to
35% chance of 1" or more.
The severe weather potential looks currently appears low, but will
be conditional on how far north the better instability can make it
as the shear would be adequate into parts of southern MN/northeast
Iowa. The latest SPC SWO has parts of northeast Iowa in the Marginal
risk. Although the most likely rainfall is .1 to 0.5" Sunday night.
with the forcing/higher precipitable water values/higher
efficiency/deeper warm cloud depth, some locally heavy rainfall of 1
to 2 inches can easily occur and with the frontogenesis/training of
storms 3+ inches could occur. The area has seen 100 to 150% of
normal rainfall the last two weeks. Parts of the area are a little
drier. We are in the marginal risk for excessive rainfall, thus if
we will need to monitor any locally heavy rains that do develop. The
models vary on placement of the rain potential...the HREF/GFS
over I90, the NAM more over the tri- state area, the HRRR farther
south over NE IA/SW WI. For now will focus more in the tri-state
area for the mid level forcing, with additional convection farther
south. Will maintain higher pops in NE IA/SW WI early this
evening, then gradually lifting northward to the tri- state area
and I90 and toward I94. Still showers/a few storms in the area
Sunday...increasing in coverage Sunday night and pushing east
Monday morning.
Temperatures remain on the cooler side with highs in the 60s with
lower to mid 70s for northeast IA/southwest WI.
Monday through Friday...Some lingering showers and isolated
thunderstorms persist Monday, especially for the southeast portion
of the forecast area. It looks mainly dry Monday night into
Tuesday with periodic rain chances Wednesday and possibly into
Wednesday night and again Thursday or Thursday night. With zonal or
northwest flow across the the northern US, below normal temperatures
continue. High temperatures from the mid-60s to mid-70s should
persist through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
An extended period of MVFR to IFR ceilings expected through Sunday
evening with some occasional showers. Persistent band of
frontogenesis over the region will continue to provide enough
forcing to generate some light showers/sprinkles through the night
into Sunday. Lift will be enhanced by a short wave trough late
Sunday afternoon into the evening to produce more widespread
showers that could also produce some visibility reductions. With
the boundary layer getting progressively more moist, ceilings
expected to come to MVFR overnight with some occasional IFR
possible for KRST at times.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Zapotocny
AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1002 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front brings a few showers early this evening to eastern
MA and RI, but a washout is not expected. Clear skies with
cooler and drier weather tonight. Sunday features full sun,
seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity levels, with
similar conditions for Monday as well. There may be some showers
at times Tuesday through Thursday, as a few weak fronts move
through, but a washout is not expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1000 PM Update:
Cold front still bisects Southern New England at this hour,
located per METARs from about Nashua NH to Worcester MA then SW
to just north of Hartford CT. A really stark air mass change
noted on either side of the front, with SW winds and dewpoints
in the mid to upper 50s east of it and W/NW winds and dewpoints
some 15 to in some spots 20 degrees lower in the upper 30s to
mid 40s! While there is an isolated shower moving through
northern Plymouth County, earlier showers/thundershower have
dissipated. Wind shift and a substantial drop in dewpoints to
occur across eastern MA through midnight. Moist SW flow
producing a field of lower clouds across SE New England, clouds
which should lift rapidly between midnight to 4 AM per latest
RAP guidance. While a much more refreshing air mass has already
overspread in the interior, this same air mass will take until
the 2nd half of the night to make it into eastern and southeast
New England. Other than some small adjustments to sky cover and
dewpoints to match current conditions and expected near-term
trends, no other changes needed attm.
Previous discussion:
345 PM Update:
This evening & overnight...
Radar and surface observations indicate stalled boundary from
eastern CT into Worcester county. This boundary and points eastward
will be focus for the scattered showers late this afternoon and
early evening. Ahead of this boundary, dew pts are in the mid to
upper 50s along with surface convergence. Meanwhile, westward into
central and western MA/CT, dew pts drop off into the 40s in the post
frontal airmass. This boundary will drift eastward into RI and
eastern MA late this afternoon/early evening and then offshore later
this evening, as short wave trough moves from southeast Ontario into
southern Quebec. Thus, greatest risk for isolated/scattered showers
late this afternoon and early evening, is across RI and eastern MA.
Farther west dry weather will prevail. Given moisture and
instability is lacking and shallow, convection will not be
widespread. In addition, given shallow convection, not expecting any
thunderstorms. Could still see some low clouds and fog redevelop
over southeast MA before the frontal passage tonight.
Later this evening and overnight, post frontal airmass overspreads
the region with dew pts falling into the 30s and 40s, hence much
drier and less humid tonight. Light winds, dry airmass and mainly
clear conditions will promote radiational cooling conditions. Hence,
followed the cooler MOS guidance to derive overnight lows. Most
locations fall into the 40s overnight, except the urban areas will
see lows 50-55.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
345 PM Update:
Sunday:
Beautiful day on tap, with rising heights and anticyclonic mid level
flow promoting lots of sunshine. Refreshing post frontal airmass
leaves behind dew pts in the 40s. This combined with highs of 75-80
will provide very pleasant conditions for early June. Weak pressure
gradient will promote cooling afternoon seabreezes, capping highs to
70-75 along and near the coast. Overall, spectacular weather.
Sunday night:
Short wave ridging provides a dry night. Surface high over the area
yields light winds, dry airmass and mostly clear conditions. Given
these conditions, derived lows from the cooler MOS guidance, which
suggest another night with lows in the 40s, 50-55 in the urban areas
and Worcester Hills where winds may not decouple.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
355 PM Update:
Highlights
* Dry and quiet weather on Mon with near to slightly warmer than
normal temps.
* Seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the extended. Frontal
system moves in Tue night/Wed bringing rain. A more robust low
develops and rides along the front lifting into the region on
Thu. Drier on Fri.
Monday through Tuesday...
Ridge axis builds from the eastern Great Lakes early on Monday into
New England by Monday evening. The ridge builds offshore by Tuesday
afternoon. Behind the ridge a deamplifying shortwave lifts across
the eastern Great Lakes. High pressure builds over the region on
Monday before pushing offshore Monday night and Tuesday. A frontal
system lifts toward western portions of southern New England late on
Tuesday.
No changes to the forecast for Monday. Dry and quiet weather
anticipated with high pressure in control. Due to the position of
the high will have S to E flow across the region. Given how light
winds will be am anticipating that coastal areas will see a sea
breeze. Temperatures at 850 hPa will range from 8-11 degrees
Celsius. Went with the 75th percentile of guidance for the interior
and 50th along the coastal plain for highs. The result are readings
in the 70s with some low 80s across the CT River Valley.
Temperatures from the NBM looked reasonable for Monday night into
early Tuesday considering the increasing mid/high clouds should
hamper strong radiational cooling. Lows in the 50s.
Made some minor adjustments to precipitation chances later on
Tuesday with the approaching frontal system. Slowed precip down a
bit given 54 members out of 100 per WPC Cluster Analysis show us
under a dry solution similar to the latest GFS. Actually am thinking
for most will be dry throughout Tuesday with the high nudging in,
but could start to see some light precipitation spreading into the
west. The remaining members are wetter, a bit deeper and move the
system in a bit faster. Temps aloft at 850 hPa will be 9-12 degrees
Celsius, which will result with highs in the 70s. Will be a bit
breezy late in the day due to the tightening pressure gradient from
the departing high and incoming low.
Wednesday through Thursday...
Unsettled through this timeframe. Remain under cyclonic flow with a
more amplified trough lifting into the eastern Great Lakes early on
Thursday and through New England by late Thursday. At the moment it
appears that Wednesday will not be a washout with a slow moving cold
front sliding through much of the region. In response to the trough
lifting in should see a low develop and ride along the cold front as
it moves through southern New England on Thursday.
On Wednesday, there could be a few rumbles of thunder in the warm
sector ahead of the incoming cold front. At this point there appears
to be a few hundred to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Deep layer shear is
around 30-40 kts with poor low/mid level lapse rates. Do think there
is a shot for some isolated thunderstorms, but do not think there
will be any strong/severe at this point.
Think there is a risk for heavier rainfall on Thursday depending on
where the surface low develops and rides along the cold front. If it
develops over us we could tap into PWATs of 1.5-2 inches, but if the
low develops too far east then we will not be able to tap into that
high PWAT moisture more in the 1.25-1.5 inch range. Regardless it
appears that it will be wet for part of Thursday as the system lifts
through the region. Still have some timing/intensity/speed
differences amongst guidance, so have stuck with the NBM for now.
Will need to wait and see if we tap into some of the high PWAT plume
as the track/intensity of the low becomes more clear.
Friday...
Could still be under cyclonic flow during this timeframe. At this
point it appears that it will be drier, but with the colder air
aloft coupled with some heating there could potentially be some pop
up showers across the interior. Have stuck with the NBM at this
point, but for most think it will be dry with seasonable temps.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...High confidence.
Generally VFR conditions with isolated to scattered showers and
a rumble of thunder or two lingering until roughly 02-03Z
across RI and eastern MA. The only exception is along the south
coast where IFR/LIFR stratus spreads in. Should see the stratus
scatter out to VFR around 03-06Z once the front passes through
and winds shift to a W/NW direction.
Sunday...High confidence.
VFR, dry weather and light WNW winds in the morning becoming
WSW in the afternoon. Seabreeze likely along the coast including
KBOS.
Sunday night...High confidence.
VFR, dry runways and light/variable winds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Isolated shower/thunderstorm
until 01Z.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday through Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR
possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
350 PM Update:
Potential Tropical System tracks well south of New England...
Tonight...
A cold front sweeps across the waters later this evening, with a
wind shift from SE to SW and then west. A few showers may accompany
the front this evening. Patchy fog may redevelop this evening before
the frontal passage, but should be short lived.
Sunday...
Weak high pressure over the waters Sunday, provides very pleasant
boating weather, with light winds (locally onshore), dry conditions
and good vsby.
Sunday night...
High pressure remains over the waters along with tranquil boating
weather. Tropical system currently over FL tracks ENE, well south of
New England. Given the ENE movement, most of the swell energy will
be directed out into the central Atlantic.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated
thunderstorms.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/BL
NEAR TERM...Nocera/BL/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...BL
AVIATION...Nocera/BL/Loconto
MARINE...Nocera/BL/Loconto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
630 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
Models, both synoptic and mesoscale, continue to struggle to get a
handle on the northwest flow pattern as the subtropical ridge sits
over Western Mexico for one more day. Synoptically most models do
show one last weak shortwave moving through overnight tonight in the
flow around the high pressure. This weak shortwave, current situated
across Eastern Colorado per the GOES-16 Water Vapor, looks to focus
more across North Texas and Oklahoma as the ridge begins to nudge
eastward. That said, it could be enough for one more round of
showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight.
Of the synoptic models the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian begin convection
across West Texas (similar to yesterday afternoon/evening) late
today before moving the QPF focus towards the I-35 corridor during
the overnight hours. By the early morning hours the GFS is the only
synoptic model to still show QPF across parts of the area. The high
resolution models are in much less agreement with respect to timing
and placement of any precipitation. The HRRR is mostly dry other
than activity across the Rio Grande this evening, the FV3 shows a
complex late this evening approaching the I-35 corridor overnight,
and the Texas Tech WRF has a combination of these two scenarios.
Other high resolution models show little to nothing. Two interesting
points to make are that the Texas Tech WRF has struggled with
convection the last few nights, but presents a fairly plausible
solution for the evening and overnight period tonight. Additionally,
models (if their timing is to be believed) are much faster with
tonight`s complex, having it exiting to our south and east by
sunrise Sunday.
Based on some of these uncertainties the general confidence in the
forecast is low for tonight into tomorrow morning. Rainfall in our
area, especially across the Rio Grande, Edwards Plateau, Hill
Country, into the Austin area is possible, but the ridge could win
out and the area see little to nothing setting up for a long hot and
dry period. Have limited PoPs to slight chance (20%), focused first
out west late this afternoon and evening, spreading eastward into
the overnight hours. Based on the drier trend by late tonight and
tomorrow morning have elected to go PoP free after 06z tonight. With
the moist ground from rains today, parts of the Coastal Plains and
eastern areas could see some patchy fog Sunday morning. As the upper
ridge begins to build northeastward, Sunday should be a dry and
sunny day with afternoon highs approaching the Century mark in most
areas, warming to as high as 106 across the Rio Grande.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
HOT HOT HOT is the story for the beginning of the long term on
Monday and Tuesday. GEFS mean 850mb temperatures at 00Z Tuesday
would rival all-time records at KDRT per the SPC sounding
climatology. High temperatures on Monday will likely range from 96-
108. Deep mixing is forecast, which will give the surface access to
this anomalous heat aloft but will also serve to bring down dew
point values some during the afternoon. Heat indices could still
approach 110 in isolated locations. A Heat Advisory appears likely
for much of the region. The same will be true of Tuesday, although
temperatures in the west half of south-central TX should top out a
couple degrees cooler, near 105. Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures may
approach and even exceed 90 degrees in some spots, which is
extremely dangerous for those performing strenuous activities
outdoors.
Subtropical ridging will remain in place and keep our region
generally dry through the end of the work week. There may be a day
with very isolated shower or storm development in the Coastal Plains
along the seabreeze front, but at this time there are no clear
signals for this and the forecast is dry into Saturday. Though not
as hot as the start of this week, Wednesday through Friday will
remain warmer than normal with humid mornings and slightly drier
afternoons. As always, proper heat safety will be key to preventing
heat related illnesses. Wear light colored, loose fitting clothing,
drink plenty of water, be aware of the signs of heat exhaustion and
heat stroke, and take frequent breaks in the shade or preferably
A/C!
There are some model runs that bring a cold front through the region
next weekend depending on the depth and westward extent of an upper
trough that is progged to impact the eastern CONUS. Time will tell
how strong the ridge is over the SW in keeping this at bay, but
we`re all rooting for a wet FROPA to continue to eat into our
deficits before we exit our primary rainy season.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
All terminals will be VFR through the upcoming TAF period. There
will be some mid to high level clouds. There is a slight chance for
thunderstorms this evening at DRT, but the probability is too low to
include in the TAF. Southerly to southeasterly winds will be stronger
starting late morning Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 72 98 75 101 / 20 10 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 98 75 100 / 10 10 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 99 73 102 / 10 10 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 72 98 73 101 / 20 10 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 75 107 77 108 / 20 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 72 98 74 101 / 20 10 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 72 102 73 104 / 10 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 71 99 73 102 / 10 10 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 99 77 100 / 10 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 72 99 74 102 / 10 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 72 103 75 105 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...Treadway
Long-Term...KCW
Aviation...05
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1054 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Updates to evening forecast for scattered showers and thunderstorms
continuing further into this evening than previously expected. Latest
short term guidance and lack of daytime heating shows activity to
gradually diminish within the next 2 hours or so inland. Storms likely
to linger another hour or so across the coastal waters with the
warm water and added instability offshore. Expected to dissipate
by midnight.
08
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 701 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022/
.DISCUSSION...
For the 06/05/2022 0000 UTC TAF package.
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms are currently present over parts of the
area and could cause MVFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms
will be expected to dissipate over the next few hours. FEW to SCT
clouds and VFR will be expected tonight through to the end of the
period. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible for
southern parts of the area tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow
evening. Winds will be modest and variable tonight. Winds will
increase and become southerly during the daytime tomorrow.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022/
SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...
NW Gulf Coast region lies between two upper level trofs embedded
within otherwise quasi-zonal westerly flow aloft, with the lead
trof departing to the east across the SE CONUS, and a sharper
upstream trof pushing east of the Rockies. Ridging generally
prevails in the low to mid levels, with weak SFC high pressure in
place to the north of a diffuse surface boundary over the Gulf.
Isolated convection has developed this afternoon amid ample MSTR
and diurnal instability, along with the sea breeze and a remnant
convective MCV that was quite evident earlier in visible satellite
imagery across interior SE TX. The HRRR (which has done a
reasonably good job in depicting the convection today, especially
with regard to initiation across SC LA) and other CAMs indicate
the showers and thunderstorms will linger into early to mid
evening before dissipating. Dry weather will prevail the rest of
the evening and overnight, with morning lows expected in the upper
60s north to lower 70s south.
The upstream trof is progged to amplify as it pushes through the
area tomorrow, though a slightly drier airmass is expected to have
advected in by then. This will keep convective prospects lower
than today, and with less convection/fewer clouds, temperatures
are expected climb a bit warmer, reaching into the lower 90s.
In the wake of the departing trof, ridging aloft building into
northern MX/southern TX will begin to nose into the area on MON,
with high pressure at the SFC positioned over the ERN Gulf
yielding a return to prevailing southerly flow. Warm and humid but
otherwise dry weather will prevail, with highs in the lower 90s.
13
LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
During the middle of the week high pressure at the surface will
extend from the Atlantic across the northern gulf coast. High
pressure aloft will extend from West TX into LA. Dry, hot, and humid
weather can be anticipated.
Friday into the weekend, a weak back door front may drift into the
area, although timing and position varies from model to model. The
upper ridge will also retrograde toward California as a trough digs
into the eastern half of the country. This may allow rain chances to
increase and high temperatures to decrease somewhat with the extra
cloud cover.
05
MARINE...
Light northerly winds behind a weak frontal boundary will linger
into today before shifting back to an onshore flow later today as
the boundary drifts back inland. The southerly winds will then
persist through the period as high pressure again ridges across
the northern Gulf of Mexico.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 68 93 72 94 / 10 10 0 0
LCH 71 90 73 90 / 20 10 0 0
LFT 71 92 73 92 / 10 10 0 0
BPT 72 91 75 91 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
618 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
Decent instability across West Central Texas again this afternoon in
the wake of last nights convective complex. However, upper level
ridge is starting to build into the area and inhibition has
increased. Latest HRRR has trended down on the amount of convection
this afternoon and evening. with most of the 12Z CAMs were pretty
limited as well (FV3 being the exception with much more widespread
activity). Still suspect that we will see some storms west of the
Pecos in the higher elevations and perhaps a few along a developing
dryline across the Permian Basin, with the convection shifting east
or southeast into the western Concho Valley and Big Country. Will
also keep an eye farther northwest where another complex of storms
may develop and make a dive southeast towards at least the Big
Country late tonight as well. All this being said, worth keeping
some small POPs in place for tonight across much of the area, but
chances overall don`t look as good as they have the last 3 nights.
Ridge builds into the area in earnest tomorrow and temperatures
begin to soar. Readings above the 100 degree mark for most areas and
may start to see the need for Heat Advisories.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
Our long range models all continue to show high pressure building
across the region causing a hot and dry spell to occur once again.
Expect much of the extended forecast to remain in the triple digits
with plenty of sunshine. Our normal high temperatures for this time
of year are typically in the lower 90s. So we will remain well above
normal through the extended with little in the way of relief in
sight.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 437 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
Expect VFR conditions to prevail at all sites through the next 24
hours. Isolated to scattered showers are developing this evening
across the Tran-Pecos region and Permian Basin. A few of these
storms could make it into our area late this evening, but
confidence remains too low to include in the current TAF
package. South winds overnight will generally remain below 12
knots, then increase to 12 to 16 knots, with higher gusts, by mid
morning Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 68 100 75 106 / 20 0 0 0
San Angelo 71 104 75 108 / 20 0 0 0
Junction 71 103 72 107 / 20 0 0 0
Brownwood 68 99 73 105 / 30 0 0 0
Sweetwater 70 103 75 107 / 20 0 0 0
Ozona 71 102 72 105 / 20 0 0 0
Brady 69 100 73 105 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Daniels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
951 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 948 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
Organized MCS across northwestern KS will continue to track
southeast overnight, although expect a weakening trend as it
approaches our forecast area. HRRR has been consistent bringing
weakening convection into parts of northeast OK after 09-10Z (if
not later), so plan on delaying mention of PoPs until late
tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
West northwest upper level flow and a series of upper level
disturbances will combine to result in daily shower and
thunderstorm chances throughout the next week. This activity will
mainly occur during the overnight and morning hours in our area as
activity originates over the high plains each afternoon and
evening and organizes and moves east southeast each night.
Temperatures will average near the seasonal normals, with daily
fluctuations dependent on shower and storm coverage each day.
Welcome to June and MCS season in Oklahoma.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022
VFR conditions are expected at all sites through late tonight.
Convection developing in the high plains this evening will move
eastward tonight, and make a run at ern OK sites after 09z. Latest
CAMs supports this scenario, but even so, uncertainty remains fairly
high on where this activity will move. Have continued PROB30 groups
for ern OK sites late tonight through mid morning Sunday, and have
included PROB30 groups for nwrn AR sites from around sunrise through
midday Sunday. Activity will likely reduce VSBYS to MVFR where it
occurs. Improving flight conditions from west to east behind the
activity for remainder of forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 66 86 69 89 / 30 30 40 20
FSM 65 87 70 91 / 10 20 30 30
MLC 66 86 71 90 / 20 30 20 20
BVO 62 84 67 87 / 30 30 50 30
FYV 59 82 66 85 / 10 20 40 50
BYV 61 82 65 85 / 10 20 50 60
MKO 64 85 69 89 / 20 30 30 20
MIO 62 82 66 85 / 20 30 60 50
F10 65 86 71 88 / 20 30 20 20
HHW 65 88 71 91 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...69