Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/04/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

 1058 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

Key Messages:

 - Wet and cool weekend for much of the area

 - Continued below average temps next week with off and on rain
   chances

*WET AND COOL SATURDAY

Upper level shortwave energy will move across the area this evening.
Increasing mid-level fgen along and south of I-90 will provide
forcing for a bands of rain to set up and move across the
forecast area after midnight and continue into Saturday/Saturday
night. Model guidance currently suggests that areas within this
band could see rainfall totals up to 0.5-1 inch, with much lighter
amounts north of I-94. The NAM shows a 40-50 kt low level jet
developing Saturday evening into northeast Iowa and southwest
Wisconsin with enhanced moisture transport and higher QPF, while
the RAP and GFS show weaker moisture transport and low level jets
with lighter QPF. If a stronger low level jet and fgen bands
develop some areas could see upwards of an inch of total rainfall
through Saturday night. Instability looks to be weak across the
area at this time, but a rumble or two of thunder would be
possible, especially for southern areas.

Where widespread clouds and precip occur, highs will likely only
reach the upper 50s/low 60s on Saturday, which is nearly 15
degrees below average. Areas outside of persistent rain bands
could see highs near 70.

*COOL, PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK

Little change in the overall pattern will occur through the coming
work week with a progressive quasi-zonal to NW flow persisting south
of a large upper trough across eastern Canada. Although not
anomalously cool, GEFS/EPS/NBM solutions all point to a continued
near to mostly below average temp pattern with highs in the 60s-70s
and lows in the 40s-50s. Some rain potential could continue into
Sunday with periodic rain chances thanks to occasional shortwave
passages through the rest of the week in the active zonal flow
pattern. Beyond Sunday, the period with somewhat stronger consensus
in a shortwave trough impacting the area is Wednesday, with
associated shower chances. Otherwise, broad-brushed NBM lower end
rain chances continue most days over the coming week given overall
low predictability in timing of individual shortwave troughs, but
dry periods/days are likely. The lack of more robust moisture
return/instability should limit the risk for strong/severe storms
during this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

The combination of a short wave trough moving across the area and
a rather persistent mid-level frontogenesis band is expected to
cause some light rain to move into the area late tonight/early
Saturday morning and persist on and off through Saturday night.
The main concern is where this light rain band will set up. The
HRRR this evening has bee very consistent in showing this being
primarily south of both airports but does show some light rain
coming across at times. For now, have trended toward this solution
by not showing any visibility reductions in the rain and delaying
the onset of MVFR ceilings until late morning and into the
afternoon. If the band does go south, not out of the question that
nothing more than sprinkles occur and ceilings could stay VFR for
much of the period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EMS/JAM
AVIATION...04



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

 844 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022

Storms have moved out of the forecast area and updated pops to
remove mention of precip overnight. LAPS data surface based CAPE
has decreased to below 500 j/kg and continues to decrease, and
weak shortwave trough/vorticity advection that has moved through
the ridge aloft continues to move east. Moisture pooling in Sedgwick
and Phillips counties overnight with dewpoints in the mid to upper
50s. Boundary layer will reach saturation as temperatures cool,
and have introduced patchy fog in those areas. Otherwise only
minor changes to reduce wind on the plains over NBM forecast and
more in line with observed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022

Radar shows scattered showers and storms mainly over the
foothills and adjacent plains. Most of the storms are struggling
to maintain their strength as there is relatively weak deep layer
sheer. Satellite shows considerable cloud cover over the Palmer
Divide with weak storms. Since the environment is not expected to
improve in that area, storms should remain below severe limits.
The Denver metro and the rest of the I-25 corridor lack much deep
layer shear and have very light inflow winds. Therefore, storms
will stay below severe limits there as well. The one area that has
the best parameter space is the northeast corner of Colorado.
Surface winds at Akron, Fort Morgan, and Sterling have been
gusting out of the southeast for much of the afternoon and the SPC
mesoanalysis page shows 1,500 j/kg of mixed-layer CAPE there
although it is capped. CAMs are mixed on the evolution of storms
in this area. The HRRR has been consistent in showing strong to
severe storms there while most of the other HREF models show sub-
severe storms there. There have been conversations with SPC about
possibly needing a Severe Thunderstorm Watch but we will wait a
bit longer to get a better idea of the mesoscale situation.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the primary threats. PoPs
and QPF were left mostly the same for this evening as they are
highest in the northeast corner. Otherwise, storms will end around
midnight in our forecast area and the rest of the night will be
partly cloudy with near normal temperatures.

Weak ridging will develop over Colorado on Saturday with increasing
heights and warmer temperatures aloft. This will result in high
temperatures getting above normal as they will top out in the low to
mid 80s across the plains. Much drier air will be in place as well
with minimum relative humidity dropping to the upper teens to low
20s across the plains. The weak subsident flow along with drier
air will result in less coverage of showers and storms tomorrow.
Nonetheless, there will be isolated showers and storms around as
the strong daytime heating leads to steep lapse rates. SPC took
away the marginal risk of severe storms and we agree with the
lower risk of severe storms since the moisture and instability
values will be on the lower side.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022

An active weather pattern continues through the long term as various
shortwaves will arrive each day through Wednesday during the zonal
flow. Weak showers and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
this weekend; Without much upper level forcing and low MLCAPE values
reaching 200 J/kg, the main threats appear to be strong winds and
small hail if any storms initialize.  Any flooding over the burn
areas will remain limited due to the combination of saturated
soils and the slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm over the
area. NAMNEST doesn`t favor many storms Saturday most likely due
to lower instability compared to Sunday. We do have saturated
lower levels so it is possible the urban corridor, Palmer Divide
and eastern plains will see a lot of virga clouds versus rainfall
Saturday afternoon. Westerly flow Saturday night should assists
in downslope winds occurring in the foothills. This and the
combination of most cloudy skies will keep low temperatures warm
especially for the urban corridor and foothills areas near the
lower 50s.

Sunday, there is more instability (MLCAPE 300-400J/kg) but also
more CIN which in theory should provide favorable conditions for
storms to form in the afternoon thus this update increased PoPs
for the Palmer Divide, mountains and valleys.

Precipitable water values remains similar to the last few runs
reaching 0.80-1 inch across the I-25 corridor and eastern plains for
Monday afternoon. 8-9 C/km lapse rates from the NAM and GFS should
support storms longevity  through Monday evening. Overall the
ingredients provide favorable conditions across the region for
widespread thunderstorms and showers. It is too early to pinpoint
exact locations and timing of these storms. Similar conditions
will occur Tuesday.

The multi GFS QPF runs indicate near zero QPF values after Wednesday
afternoon into late next week. This is evident from all long term
models (GFS/ECMWF/Canadian) 500mb heights favoring a large ridge
pattern by next Friday. Additionally, all models listed above favor
an upper level high pressure system setting up in New Mexico.
Although it is extremely far out, an interesting note for the Denver
metro is GFS deterministic daily high temperatures reach above 90
degrees (a few days of 100 degrees) everyday for the middle of June
meaning we`ll be warming up quickly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022

Showers and thunderstorms in the KDEN/KAPA/KBJC aerodromes will
dissipate by 01z. VFR with no cigs for the rest of the night, and
winds will settle into a south drainage flow patter overnight. For
Saturday, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be mainly
limited to the foothills, although added a late afternoon 21z vcsh
for KAPA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022

There is low chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms are
possible this weekend near the Cameron Peak, East Troublesome, and
Calwood burn areas which could cause a limited threat. Although it
is difficult to pinpoint where exact storms will form next week,
favorable QPF values reaching 0.80-1.00 inch over the burn areas
could cause a limited to elevated threat for flooding Monday and
Tuesday afternoon. A ridge pattern will begin Thursday which will
bring drier conditions across the region.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...AD
AVIATION...Hanson
HYDROLOGY...AD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

 1043 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high
pressure centered over western Minnesota and weak low pressure
located north of Lake Huron. A tight pressure gradient and deep
mixing led to the development of gusty winds late this morning
with gusts to 35 mph. The gusty winds will gradually subside
through the rest of the afternoon into early this evening. Broken
cloud cover across far northeast WI will also dissipate through
the rest of the afternoon as a pocket of cold air aloft retreats
to the northeast. As surface high pressure builds into the region,
temps and frost potential is the main forecast concern tonight.

Tonight...High pressure will build into the region and low level
winds should diminish enough for decoupling across the sandy soil
regions of far northern WI. Some clouds will likely push into the
region late in the night, but confidence in coverage and
thickness is relatively low. Made a few slight adjustment to temps
to work in the statistical guidance, which tends to perform
better on good radiational cooling nights. With lows forecast in
the mid 30s, will issue a frost advisory across the far north.

Saturday...An area of weak warm advection/mid-level fgen will
spread east across west-central to southern WI from early morning
through the afternoon. Most higher resolution guidance keeps
precip just south of the forecast area border, but will continue
with a small chance from Wood to Manitowoc. Other showers might
develop near the U.P. border on the southern edge of shortwave
energy moving across the Lake Superior region. The HRRR paints
about 100-200 J/kg of instability developing by mid-afternoon,
which is sufficient for a small chance of thunder, particularly if
a lake breeze off Lake Superior provides additional convergence.
Highs ranging from the mid 60s to near 70.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

Precipitation trends wiill be the main forecast concern.

A warm front will set up over northern IL as a Canadian cold front
sags toward the western Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday.
Modest isentropic lift and frontogenetic forcing will set up over
the far southern part of the forecast area, leading to moderate
rainfall, especially late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Rain
chances and amounts will drop off considerably farther north. The
Canadian front will drop through the forecast area Sunday night
into Monday and combine with the boundary to our south to
generate a healthy baroclinic zone over the region. There is a
difference of opinion on whether this boundary will sag far enough
southeast to pull the significant rain out of the region, or if
it will linger nearby, with a surface wave developing and regenerating
rain in the south and east parts of the forecast area. Have stayed
close to the model blend for pops and QPF through this period,
though did increase pops a bit in the south/east, where higher QPF
was predicted.

High pressure should bring mainly dry conditions to the region
Monday night into Tuesday night, but a short-wave trough and
associated cold front will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the region for the midweek period. Another system
is possible late in the week, though model differences result in
low confidence during this period.

Temperatures are expected to remain a little below normal through
most of the extended period.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

Mostly clear skies are expected for much of the overnight period
with clouds returning late tonight into Saturday morning as a low
pressure system approaches the region. Spotty showers could
develop by early Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, mainly
near the U.P. border, and across southern Wisconsin. Although
these showers could get close to the TAF sites, confidence in them
hitting the actual TAF sites is too low to include in this set of
TAFs but will include a VCSH at KRHI as the chances for showers
across that area is higher.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ005-010>012-018.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kurimski



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pueblo CO

 830 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 823 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022

Updated the forecast to expire the severe thunderstorm watch for
the remainder of the plains. A few isolated storms may linger over
far southeast Colorado into the evening hours, but the storms are
not expected to be severe. /Hodanish

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022

1) Critical fire weather conditions expected over the San Luis
Valley tomorrow afternoon and evening.

2) Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening,
a strong outflow is possible Saturday afternoon over the far eastern
plains, and the high impact low confidence severe set up over the
far eastern plains on Sunday.

Currently...

The severe weather risk is on track for this afternoon, there is
fairly widespread convection over the eastern mountains south of
El Paso County. The immediate risk will be over the I-25 corridor
in which ping pong ball sized hail and 70 mph gusts are possible
over the next few hours. CAPE values via mesoanalysis indicate
nearly 2500 j/kg over Pueblo County, however 0-3km bulk shear
values are around 20 kt. With the amount of CAPE in the atmosphere
some sporadic severe thunderstorms are expected over the I-25
corridor.

Tonight:

The severe risk continues this evening, and by 6PM MDT,
thunderstorms will be exiting the I-25 corridor moving towards
the far eastern plains. Looking at the environment, the NAM seems
to be the most correct model at this point in time, matching
temperatures and dew point temperatures. The HRRR is a little more
sparse with convection, however the known limitations of the HRRR
mixing the atmosphere and becoming too dry is a reasonable
outcome. The NAMs depiction of this afternoon has around 2000-3000
j/kg of SBCAPE/MUCAPE during the evening ahead of convection
initiation. 0- 6km bulk shear values range from 35 to 45 knots are
expected and the hodograph has low to mid level concavity,
favoring right splitting supercells. The overall picture of what
we are expecting this evening is a transition from more isolated
thunderstorms during the early afternoon, to more of a MCS line of
storms that will continue to develop new updrafts as the cold
pool marches east-southeast. Main hazards will be 1.5" hail, 70
mph winds, and an isolated tornado possible.

Tomorrow:

We did not upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning. The
wind speeds just doesn`t seem like they will be reaching criteria.
Weak upper level winds do not support the translation to the
surface. We`ll keep the Watch out for now, but may have to cancel in
the next forecast package.

Less convective activity is expected tomorrow afternoon as the main
CAPE axis will be over the Kansas side of the Colorado-Kansas
border, however, if that axis shifts to the east a strong storm may
be possible when a weak wave propagates overhead during the evening.
The most likely outcome is expected to be high based showers that
have the potential to create 40 to 50 mph wind gusts, which is
supported by DCAPE values ranging from 800 to 1000 j/kg.

Sunday:

The San Luis Valley will have near critical fire weather
conditions on Sunday afternoon and evening, however fire weather
highlights do not seem likely as wind speeds will be the limiting
factor.

An interesting severe weather set-up may occur on Sunday afternoon,
but a few complexities need to occur for the set-up to develop. The
first requirement will be an outflow boundary from convection
located over southern Nebraska and northern Kansas, which will act
to tighten and force a moisture gradient over the southeastern
plains of Colorado. There is support via the NAM and the ECMWF,
whereas the GFS keeps the convection out east and mixes out the
low level moisture supporting my case for convection. Consider
this event a high impact low confidence event that needs to be
monitored. Main hazards would be large hail and gusty winds, with
a very low chance for tornadogenesis.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022

Key Messages:

1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Monday through
Thursday. Large hail, gusty winds, and an isolated tornado are
possible on Monday and Tuesday, whereas large hail and gusty winds
are possible on Wednesday and Thursday.

2) Fire Weather possibilities strongest in the San Luis Valley and
Southwest Mountains throughout the work week.

For Monday:

Upper level disturbances will dominate most of the week. As
temperatures will be warm on Monday, a cold front will push through
eastern Colorado approximately Monday night into Tuesday morning,
cooling the temperatures a little, and shifting the winds to the
east pushing moisture towards the mountains adjacent to the I-25
Corridor, orographically causing convection and increasing CAPE and
lowering capping, which will enhance the chances of widespread
thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and gusty winds
throughout the forecast area. The NAM hints at a ribbon of CAPE with
values greater than 1500 j/kg along the I-25 corridor, whereas
the GFS has lower values (around 1000 J/kg), but they are more
widespread across the eastern plains. Either way, model guidance
is hinting at strong to severe thunderstorms developing over the
plains Monday afternoon. There is some uncertainty of how far
south the convection will develop, the EPS has a signal of
thunderstorms developing south of Highway 50, whereas the GEFS
hints at a more northerly outcome. Therefore, this needs to be
monitored closely over the next few days. On the other hand, the
deterministic models are hinting at an MCS developing over our
portions of the southeastern plains. There is also some
uncertainty for thunderstorms in this time period involves the
possibility that capping could stay in place, but capping will
likely deteriorate according to model ensembles.

Main impacts from these storms may be large hail, gusty winds, and a
very low chance of an isolated tornado, which could lead to damage
to structures and vehicles due to these hazards. Outflows from
thunderstorms could produce hazardous cross-winds along the I-25
Corridor, especially for high-profile vehicles. Locally heavy
rainfall over the burn scars may result in flash flooding.

Any fire weather concerns appear to be limited to the San Luis
Valley and Southwest mountains due to low humidities and periodic
wind gusts throughout the forecast period.

Tuesday:

A very similar pattern is expected on Tuesday in comparison to
Monday, however there is expected to be higher low level moisture in
robson`s to the previous days MCS. This will increase CAPE values
over the eastern plains to around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. The model
derived 0-6km bulk shear values are hinting at values near 60kts
with a straight hodograph. This supports the development of
splitting supercells, not favoring left or right splits.

Tuesday has the potential to be a higher end severe weather day with
large hail, strong winds, and isolated tornadic development. Please
stay tuned to latest updates.

Rainfall totals from Monday into Wednesday could reach 1 to 2 inches
in some localities. Outflows from thunderstorms could produce
hazardous cross-winds along the I-25 Corridor, especially for high-
profile vehicles.

Wednesday through Friday:

Wednesday and Thursday look fairly similar. The post cold/gust front
air is expected to cool the high temptress on Wednesday to the
mid 70s to low 80s, which really decreases instability over the
region. The one area of concern, on both days, will be the
southern I-25 corridor and the eastern mountains where a theta-e
ribbon and low level winds create orographic lift. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible over this region on both
Wednesday and Thursday. Main impacts could be large hail and gusty
winds. Thursday is expected to have higher coverage due to more
efficient daytime heating. Uncertainty stems from the possibility
that the disturbances that initiate thunderstorm genesis,
according to some models, may track south.

There will be a warming trend, slightly bringing up temperatures,
but relative humidities should stay above fire hazard thresholds
except for the San Luis Valley and Southwest Mountains.

-Riser

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022

Thunderstorms will continue to be in the vicinity of KCOS and KPUB
through around 01Z. If a storm develops overhead IFR and LIFR
conditions are expected. VFR conditions are the prevailing flight
category and will last through the rest of te forecast period. Some
gusty outflow winds are possible tomorrow afternoon over KCOS.

KALS will remain VFR throughout the forecast period with period of
gusty westerly winds during the afternoon. &&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for COZ224.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for COZ224.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...RISER
AVIATION...SKELLY