Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/03/22

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&& .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night) Issued at 559 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 A somewhat blocky pattern is expected to persist over the Northern Plains through the next few days. That pattern consisting of a mid level low near Hudson`s Bay, with an upstream ridge over the Rockies. Flow around the upper low will tend to keep a cooler airmass over the region into the weekend, along with several chances of rain. The first chance of rain will be for Friday, and mainly across southern South Dakota as a pv anomaly moves through the flow. It appears up to a half inch is possible along the I90 corridor, with much less the further north you go. The showers may linger into Saturday, but with less coverage vs Friday. The highest chances for any convection would appear to exist over the south central CWA through the period. This area will have just a bit more LLM and afternoon instability. At this time no severe weather is expected. Temperatures will remain on the coolish side given that forecast anomalies continue to favor below normal through the period. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 559 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 The extended period is looking a bit active with generally below normal temperatures. Models continue to suggest northwest flow aloft early on in the period, and maybe trying to transition to more zonal flow, but still some uncertainty in this. The trend seen in previous forecast still seems to hold this time around, in that the areas missing out on recent rains may have the best chance to see precip with the few waves moving through during the first half of the extended period. Did not make any changes to inherited POPs, which continue to highlight the western/southern CWA with highest POPs during the first half of the period. Then, still too much uncertainty in latter half waves that look to potentially be crossing the northern plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Iso`d/wdly sct`d showers or thunderstorms may be developing or moving near the KPIR terminal by the end of the TAF valid period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...TDK LONG TERM...TMT AVIATION...Dorn
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1033 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 .UPDATE... Evening Update. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 1024 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022/ Remainder of tonight. Adjusted pops for tonight based on progression of pre-frontal boundary. We are in a lull right now. The front is nearing the Interstate 59 corridor. Although convection is not accompanying the front, a wind shift will be observed. There is drier air behind the front, but it lags behind it some. Hires models indicate a post-front upper shortwave during the early morning hours Friday. I have some 30-50 percent pops entering back from the far W before sunrise, but most of the showers should be after sunrise. 08 Previous short-term discussion: /Updated at 1253 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022/ Through Friday. A convective complex of storms has developed across West-Central Alabama this morning and this activity is moving east-southeast and will affect much of the forecast area through the rest of the afternoon hours. A shortwave trough is located near the AL/MS border at 500 mb per RAP mesoanalysis data with more shortwaves to the west where a longwave trough is progged to deepen over the Arklatex region by this evening. An outflow boundary is across the Northern and Central counties aligned roughly just northwest of the Interstate 59 corridor. The wet microburst risk today is low with the best potential across the southwest. A few severe storms are possible today with damaging winds and some hail the risks. Highs will range from the upper 80s northwest to the low 90s southeast. A surface cold front will slowly from the northwest tonight and tomorrow and will result in scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon and into the evening hours. We will experience a decrease in activity overnight but isolated showers and a few storms will remain possible overnight. Lows will range the upper 60s north to around 70 south. Best PoPs will be across the southern half of the forecast area on Friday as the weakening front stalls just north of the Interstate 20 corridor with slightly drier air filtering into the far northern counties during the day. Highs will range from the lower 80s northeast to near 90 far southeast. 05 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 348 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022/ Made minor changes to the temps over the weekend, but still expect highs in the 80s on Saturday and mid 80s to lower 90s on Sunday. Given the track of the potential tropical system across southern Florida, low level wind flow across Central Alabama on Saturday will have a more northerly direction, pulling drier air into the area. This will help keep conditions dry, and have removed the low pops for Saturday afternoon. 14 Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 237 AM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022/ Friday night through Wednesday. Lower dew points will continue to filter southward behind the cold front Friday night putting an end to rain chances and resulting in pleasant low temperatures, with some of the typically cooler locations reaching the upper 50s. This dry air mass should largely inhibit convection Saturday afternoon as a potential tropical system passes well southeast of the area across South Florida, but easterly winds could advect in sufficient moisture for an isolated shower/storm in the southeast counties. Embedded convectively enhanced shortwaves in northwest flow bring a return in shower/storm chances Sunday/Monday, and will have to watch for any MCSs that develop. Ridging strengthens along the Gulf Coast Tuesday/Wednesday, with an associated increase in high temperatures and heat indices near 100F in spots. Small rain chances will become confined to the northeast counties on the edge of the heat dome. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. Pre-frontal boundary convection is tapering down. A few showers are possible over the next few hours for MGM/TOI, but generally we are in a lull in the activity with VFR/mid level cloudiness across C AL. The front will move through tonight, but only isolated convection is anticipated with it. Some MVFR cigs are possible in the morning along with additional SHRA (behind the front) as an upper shortwave moves across from W to E. Activity should clear from NW to SE during Friday afternoon as the shortwave pushes E out of AL. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through Friday, as a weak cold front moves through the area. Northwesterly winds tonight become northerly Friday, at 6-10mph. RH values remain above 45 percent Friday afternoon. Drier air moves in on Saturday with RH values in the 38 to 45 percent range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 67 83 61 86 63 / 20 30 0 10 10 Anniston 68 81 62 87 64 / 20 30 0 10 10 Birmingham 68 84 63 87 67 / 20 30 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 69 87 64 88 66 / 20 30 0 10 10 Calera 68 84 65 87 67 / 20 30 0 10 10 Auburn 68 85 66 86 67 / 20 40 10 10 10 Montgomery 71 84 67 90 68 / 20 40 10 10 10 Troy 69 87 67 89 68 / 20 50 10 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
803 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 802 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Quiet night with forecast tracking along with observations quite well. Convective cell has popped in South Park, right about where the HRRR said it would. Lingering instability in that area has CAPE of about 500 j/kg, and GOES GLM and ground based lightning detection picking up some in cloud flashes. Storms should dissipate through midnight as CAPE wanes. Have made some small changes to blend in NBM overnight low temps, cooling lows off on the plains a few degrees. This also lowers the Temp/dewpoint spread, and added patchy fog in Lincoln and southern Elbert counties. Finally, blended in some guidance with lower pops to drop below slight chance category across much of the area, while still trending toward chance/slight chance in Park County and into the Palmer divide. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 257 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible into the early evening hours with the better chances south of I-70. Conditions dry out before midnight with lows in upper 40s for the plains and 30s for most of the high country. Friday, a flattened upper level ridge remains over CO. Embedded shortwave energy in the flow moves across into the evening coupled with weak synoptic ascent ahead of it. 700mb temperatures warm to 9-13C promoting temps close to normal. Highs will likely range in the upper 70s to low 80s across the plains and 60s over the high country. Moisture increases into the afternoon with precipitable water values increasing to .5- .8". This will likely bring in more cloud coverage which may keep highs cooler by a degree or two. Given the upper level support, there will be a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Instability will be in place with MLCAPE values 1000-2000 J/kg over the plains and steep midlevel lapse rates. Shear will be in modest amounts. This will support the marginal threat for a few strong to severe storms. Main limitation will be the weakly capped environment as indicated from model soundings, especially across the eastern plains. This will keep confidence lower in the shower/thunderstorm chances and coverage. Overall, the environment supports scattered storms with a fewer stronger ones. Model soundings exhibit an inverted V structure with decent DCAPE values 900-1100 J/kg, so gusty outflow winds may be one of the more likely threats with any stronger storms. Small hail is possible as well. In terms of timeframe, CAMs agree on the best chances in the mid afternoon to early evening timeframe. CAMs also indicate some uncertainty in the location, but best chances will start over the high country in the afternoon then spreading onto the plains. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 257 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 The long term period will be pretty active with a series of shortwaves within persistent zonal flow. With decent moisture over eastern Colorado, there will be a chance of showers and storms nearly every day. Storms will be ongoing Friday evening and the HREF models favor a complex of storms coming off the Cheyenne Ridge towards far northeast Colorado. The environment will have healthy amounts of CAPE (up to 2,000 j/kg) and deep layer shear (50 knots of bulk shear) to support strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. PoPs and QPF were raised during the evening hours mainly in Logan, Sedgwick, and Phillips Counties. The high resolution models also target another possible area of storms along the Palmer Ridge which could be strong to severe in Elbert and Lincoln Counties. The storms will move east of our CWA by midnight. On Saturday, there will be a weak ridge that moves over Colorado. This will limit the coverage of showers and storms. However, there will be a boundary that acts like a back door cold front that pushes into the northeast corner of Colorado during the afternoon. Along and north of this boundary, there will be enough instability and lift to generate a few storms. At this time, the CAPE and shear values are not very high but steep lapse rates mean there is a chance of strong wind gusts with these storms. A weak shortwave trough moves across our area Sunday morning but it won`t produce much of any precipitation since it won`t be timed with peak heating. By the afternoon Sunday, there will be slight ridging over Colorado. Weak instability will build in that will allow a few showers and storms to form. It is unlikely that these will be severe due to the lack of much instability and shear. Monday and Tuesday will be rather active weather days as there will be severe weather and flooding concerns. A strong jet will move across Wyoming and Nebraska with healthy moisture return in the low levels across eastern Colorado. Precipitable water values will approach 1.5 inches in Lincoln County on Monday evening which is ample moisture for storms to produce heavy rain. Storms will form in the afternoon and evening as instability develops favoring eastern Colorado where the best moisture is. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index highlights an area in east-central Colorado that may see excessive QPF values. In the coming days it will be easier to determine whether the heavy rain threat is only in Goodland`s CWA or is in our CWA as well. A relatively strong shortwave trough for June will move across Wyoming on Tuesday. This will provide a source of lift over our forecast area along with strong deep layer shear. In addition, there will continue to be healthy low level moisture in place especially over far eastern Colorado. The question mark with regards to storms and severe weather will be how much instability will develop. If instability in on the higher side, good coverage of strong to severe storms would be possible. If there are too many low clouds that limit instability, then there may not be many storms at all. Otherwise, temperatures will be near normal for the long term period with fire danger on the lower side. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 519 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Light ENE winds continue through 03Z at all sites. Winds should shift to the southeast then staying mostly south to southeast through the night under 11kts. Mid to low level sticks around through Friday morning therefore, this update includes lower BKN cloud decks starting 03Z through 9Z at KDEN and KAPA. VFR conditions continue through the entire TAF period for all sites. Friday, scattered thunderstorms are possible but CAMs keep most storms south of KDEN thus keeping VCTS in all terminals for now; there is higher confidence in timing for thunderstorms beginning 19Z through 00Z Friday evening. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 257 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 There is a small risk flash flooding for the burn areas east of the Divide Friday afternoon. Flow aloft will keep storms moving more quickly across areas limiting the flash flood risk. The potential for a heavier shower or storm over the burn areas has contributed to the small risk Friday afternoon. Flash flooding in the burn areas is unlikely Saturday and Sunday. There is a potential for stronger storms on Monday and Tuesday but they will be moving quickly. Therefore, a limited threat for burn area flash flooding exists on Monday and Tuesday. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hanson SHORT TERM...Mensch LONG TERM...Danielson AVIATION...AD HYDROLOGY...Mensch/Danielson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
548 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 ...Updated for 00Z TAF Discussion... .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE We have just enough moisture in the area to fire off a few thunderstorms this early evening. Isolated thunderstorms will continue for the next 3 hours. The main threat from the these storms will be strong outflow winds which can move out a good distance from the storms. Closer to the storms, 1 inch hail could also be a problem. The storms will die down later this evening, as will our gusty winds. For the rest of tonight we will see south or southeast winds. There will again be another chance for isolated thunderstorms on Friday, but that thunderstorm chance will be even lower than today as drier air looks to push back across the region and give us some low end gusty winds from the west tomorrow afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION...216 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022... .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances are still possible this afternoon/evening, especially for areas along and east of the Rio Grande River. Some may be strong to severe. Gusty wind and hail will be the primary hazards. Isolated storms may be possible again on Friday, mainly focusing over eastern zones once again. Dry air moves into the region on Saturday, bringing breezy afternoon winds for the weekend and temperatures near normal. We warm up to near triple digits in the lowlands on Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday... Moisture has returned to the CWA with most locations east of the Divide reporting dew points AOA 50 degrees as of 1PM. Even toward the AZ border, moisture has been a bit slower to erode than forecast with dew points still in the 40s. Albeit slower than expected, dry air is expected to push back to the east this afternoon, stalling toward the Rio Grande Valley by evening before pushing back to the west overnight. East of this boundary, thunderstorm chances will continue, but with lack of upper-level forcing and a decent cap, thunderstorm initiation will have to rely on orographic lift and then subsequent outflows for the lowlands. The RAP is still showing instability over 1000 J/kg. This instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of shear suggest a few storms could be strong to severe this afternoon with large hail and damaging winds the main threat, aided by T-Td spread of 30-40 degrees. Convection is expected to gradually dissipate and exit the area by midnight while the dry line/cold front is pushed back to the west overnight, reaching the AZ border by sunrise. Westerlies will once again try to push the moisture back to the east, aided by a weak s/w suggested in the GFS. This time, we expect the retreating dryline/cold front to make it farther east taking thunderstorm chances with it, but eastern areas could still see a chance for a storm, mainly east of the Rio. CAPE will be a little lower while shear is comparable, so the threat for severe storms will decrease but a strong to low-end severe storm can`t be ruled out. Highs tomorrow will be warmer for areas along the Rio Grande Valley with the cooler air mass displaced to the east. The 12z HRRR did place a fly-in-the-ointment by having moisture push in from Mexico giving southern areas a chance for storms, but it is an outlier with this scenario. It is still too early to see if the 18z run will follow suit. && .LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday... Storms over the area should be dissipating(ed) by the start of the long term period on Friday night. Unless, like what was said above, storms push into our southern zones from Mexico. Otherwise, that`s really it for storm chances for the long term. Any bit of moisture we enjoyed is scoured out of the area by mid- day Saturday as deep westerly flow continues. This will bring back dry conditions with breezy afternoon westerly winds for the weekend. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be near seasonal average (lowland 90s; mountain 70/80s). On Monday and Tuesday, subtle UL height rises will bring an increase in temperatures as the thermal ridge recenter over the Borderland. Near 100F temps will be possible for lowland areas, with breezy afternoon winds. There is a little bit better model agreement for Wednesday that a backdoor cool front will approach the Sacramento Mountains, with moist air behind it. It looks like the moisture won`t push into the region until overnight Wednesday, which is past this forecast period. However, looking at the various ensembles and their PW and CAPE values for late next week, it does look like there is agreement that we may see a moisture surge into next weekend. Which means: changes for rain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Strong moisture recovery is expected again tonight for areas along and east of the Continental Divide. Thunderstorms remain possible this evening for areas that stay within the better moisture with some threat for dry lightning. Tomorrow, the moist air mass is expected to retreat east, however, with dry air shifting to east of the Rio Grande Valley by afternoon. Min RH values will fall into the single digits. Winds will be southwesterly with 20 foot winds expected to top out around 15 mph with higher gusts. Areas east of this boundary, mainly the Otero highlands and Hudspeth County, could see isolated thunderstorms. Dry lightning is a concern with any of these storms. As we enter the weekend, all locations will see very dry conditions with warming temperatures. Winds will also be on the increase with elevated to near-critical fire concerns for the area. Vent rates will be excellent for most locations. && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 67 97 68 99 / 40 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 62 90 64 92 / 40 30 20 0 Las Cruces 62 96 62 97 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 60 93 59 95 / 40 30 0 0 Cloudcroft 47 74 48 71 / 50 40 20 0 Truth or Consequences 62 93 63 95 / 30 10 0 0 Silver City 53 87 61 85 / 20 0 0 0 Deming 60 95 59 96 / 20 0 0 0 Lordsburg 61 95 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 96 68 98 / 30 10 0 0 Dell City 61 92 59 97 / 40 40 20 0 Fort Hancock 64 96 63 100 / 40 20 10 0 Loma Linda 60 90 63 90 / 40 20 10 0 Fabens 64 97 64 99 / 40 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 63 95 62 96 / 30 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 94 67 95 / 40 10 0 0 Jornada Range 60 94 60 94 / 40 10 0 0 Hatch 61 95 61 95 / 30 10 0 0 Columbus 62 96 65 97 / 20 0 0 0 Orogrande 62 94 62 95 / 40 20 0 0 Mayhill 49 80 52 83 / 40 40 30 0 Mescalero 47 80 50 82 / 40 40 20 0 Timberon 51 80 53 80 / 40 30 10 0 Winston 48 85 53 89 / 30 10 0 0 Hillsboro 57 90 62 91 / 30 10 0 0 Spaceport 59 93 59 95 / 40 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 49 86 53 87 / 20 10 0 0 Hurley 55 91 56 91 / 20 0 0 0 Cliff 49 94 46 95 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 89 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 55 90 59 89 / 20 0 0 0 Animas 59 95 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 59 95 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 59 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 57 91 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 99/99/15
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Lingering sea breeze boundary near the coast could kick up a few more showers and storms this evening near LBX and GLS, but will dissipate by 02Z. Otherwise, light and variable winds overnight with patchy fog possible for CXO and UTS. Any patchy fog should dissipate around sunrise and VFR conditions will prevail. A few models are hinting at some isolated showers tomorrow afternoon, but coverage did not warrant any mention of VCSH for now. Lenninger && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022/... .SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]... As I`m writing this discussion (around 2pm), we have a nice healthy rain shower right over the office. Other locations around Southeast Texas are experiencing the same as we have a mixed bag of boundaries providing focus points for showers and thunderstorms to develop along. One of these boundaries is a weak cold front, which has become largely washed out at this point. 12Z CAMs and the latest HRRR continue to point towards convection reigniting mainly south of I-10 later this afternoon/evening as one of the boundaries interacts with the seabreeze. Those that do receive rainfall this afternoon will get a reprieve from the low 90s with a ~10 degree temperature drop. The biggest impact from the weak cold front is the surge in moisture as PW values have risen to 1.7"-1.9". This exceeds the 75th percentile (1.68"), so localized heavy rainfall is likely with any of the stronger showers/storms. Temperatures tonight drop down to right around normal with lows in the low 70s inland and in the upper 70s along the coast. Expecting a somewhat similar day for Friday, although rain coverage will be less than it is today in the morning/early afternoon. Our best chance of rain comes in the late afternoon/evening as another shortwave moves through the region. PW values will still range from 1.6"-1.8" with CAPE values from 1000-1500 J/kg, so we`ll have plenty of moisture and instability to work with to develop showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures for Friday remain in the upper 80s/low 90s, and with a later ETA for the rainfall, most locations will actually reach this number. Behind the aforementioned shortwave trough is one of the words that we dread during the summertime (I know it`s not officially summer yet, but it might as well be). No, not the one that starts with H...this one starts with R! Ridging begins to build in Friday night, so expect those temperatures to climb over the weekend. Yay! :( Batiste .LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]... On Saturday, as what is now known as Potential Tropical Cyclone One advances into the Eastern Gulf and approaches the FL coast, surface high pressure will settle into the Central Gulf and brings about a return to surface onshore flow. Meanwhile, a midlevel shortwave trough will pass to our north/northeast during the afternoon on Saturday, potentially bringing a period of isolated shower/storm activity to the northern and eastern zones throughout the day. Global models continue to concentrate most of the associated QPF well to our north and as a result have generally maintained PoP values in the vicinity of 20-30%. Following the departure of the shortwave, an extended period of upper ridging will build into the Central CONUS and bring about a typical summertime pattern characterized by warm and humid conditions to SE TX. NBM remains quite aggressive in its MaxT guidance in the extended period with the deterministic forecast well in excess of the median of the overall distribution, particularly heading into the early part of next week. While 500mb heights to look to reach the 590-592dam range by this time, am not confident that this synoptic pattern will produce the widespread highs in the upper 90s currently projected by the blend. That being said, most locations inland should see highs in the mid 90s well into next week with locations northwest of the Houston metro in the upper 90s to near 100 by mid-week. Overnight lows will gradually inch upward as WAA increases with a tightening synoptic gradient, with values mostly in the mid 70s in the early part of the week and reaching the mid to upper 70s inland and near 80 along the coast by mid-week. Cady .MARINE... Light winds continue across the bays and offshore waters ahead of the approach of a weak cold front overnight and into tomorrow morning. As the frontal boundary slowly moves towards the coast, expect a brief shift to offshore winds during the day on Friday and additional scattered showers and thunderstorms closer to the coast. Offshore winds quickly return as we head into the weekend as an area of surface high pressure moves into the Central Gulf behind the departure of what is now Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Expect onshore winds to persist well into next week, with winds and wave heights at times approaching caution thresholds. Cady .TROPICAL... The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone One located near the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon. The forecast track takes the tropical cyclone into the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula over the weekend. There is no threat to Southeast Texas, but let this be a reminder that hurricane season is under way. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 71 91 72 93 73 / 10 40 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 73 90 73 92 74 / 20 30 20 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 77 87 78 88 79 / 40 20 20 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1020 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1019 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2022 Only a few isolated showers remain in the southern and southeastern portions of the forecast area. The POP has again been updated based on latest trends, with only a low POP lingering late tonight in the aforementioned portions of the forecast area. UPDATE Issued at 708 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2022 A broken line of showers/thunderstorms has developed and is moving through the southern and southeastern portions of the JKL forecast area. Have updated the POP based on radar trends and latest models runs, with likely or categorical POP in the very near term ahead of the line. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 340 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2022 The latest surface analysis shows the cold front entering the western fringes of the CWA and will continue to progress through the area this afternoon and evening. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to low 80s with scattered showers and storms across the area. A better line of storms can be seen upstream along the cold front. Earlier, a few storms near the Virginia border popped up quickly but only warranted an SPS. SPC still have a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over most of eastern Kentucky with damaging winds remaining the biggest threat. Earlier clearing over the northern portion of the CWA allowed temperatures to rise into the upper 70s to low 80s, a couple of degrees warmer than originally forecast. This extra warmer may have helped increase instability in the area. the HRRR has suggested shear values in the 25-30 knot range though the SPC Mesoanalysis hinted at some shear values closer to 35 knots sneaking into the northern counties. HRRR and NAMNEST soundings have produced SBCAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range with DCAPE ranging from 800-900 J/kg. These DCAPE values would support a marginal threat for severe wind gusts and based on current trends, would most likely be realized with the best forcing associated the cold front passing through the area. Hail also can not be ruled out completely at this point given the small chance a more organized storm develops in the higher sheared environment. Showers and storms will dissipate from west to east with the passage of the cold front and should be completely out of eastern Kentucky by 04Z tonight. Behind the front, high pressure will begin to move in along with subsidence in the upper levels which will help support fog development across the area, the densest fog is expected to develop along the river valleys. Lows will fall into the low to upper 50s. Tomorrow will be cooler with highs topping out in the mid 70s as winds pick up from the north. Friday night lows will fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s with fog expected to develop along the river valleys again. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 255 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2022 The period starts dry on Saturday under surface high pressure and zonal flow aloft. There is some model disagreement on Sunday with the GFS bringing a weak wave through the area which may touch of a few afternoon and evening showers/storms, while the ECMWF keeps the area dry. Didn`t stray too far from the NBM and left slight chance Pops in to account for the differences. There is better model consensus for Monday through Wednesday as multiple short waves move through the area around the base of a large upper level low slowly moving across south-central Canada. This will result in an increased chance for showers and storms each day, which the highest chances during the afternoon and evening, and diminishing chances overnight. Temperatures in the long term period will generally run near to slightly above normal with high temps in the lower to middle 80s. Saturday night will be the coolest night of the period with overnight lows in the low to middle 50s. The remaining nights will be milder with lows in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 808 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2022 A line of showers and thunderstorms was moving southeast through southeast KY at the start of the period, bringing localized IFR conditions. Most locations northwest of the line were VFR. The line has already passed TAF sites, and will exit the state later this evening. Overnight, fog will develop in valleys and persist until early morning, bringing IFR or worse conditions. If any TAF sites are affected, it would most likely be KLOZ and KSME. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...BATZ LONG TERM...CMF AVIATION...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
903 PM PDT Thu Jun 2 2022 .DISCUSSION...With generally benign thunderstorms winding down this evening, one of the remaining cells flared up in northern Klamath county before suddenly collapsing. With the quick drop in reflectivity have issued a Special Weather Statement for strong, but likely not severe, outflow winds. Thunderstorms should continue to taper off this evening, with the widespread rain moving in to the coast tomorrow morning, and spreading inland across the east side by tomorrow evening. && .AVIATION...03/00Z TAFs... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are occuring for areas along, near, and east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening, as well as from Mt. Shasta northeast towards KLMT. Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph are possible in and near any thunderstorm. KLMT has been affected by these gusts and further gusts remain possible for at least the next hour while convection is ongoing. These storms have also been producing fairly consistent in-cloud lightning strikes, with some ground strikes having been observed. Elsewhere, IFR ceilings from marine stratus exist offshore of the Coos County coast, with VFR elsewhere. Late this afternoon MVFR to IFR is likely to return to all coastal areas as the stratus redevelops and pushes inland, with partial terrain obscurations in the coastal mountains. A front is expected to bring widespread showers along and near the coast, and in the Umpqua Basin Friday morning, spreading inland by Friday afternoon. MVFR may begin to affect areas east of the coast range over the interior west side, especially in the Roseburg and Umpqua Basin area, around 12Z, through the morning. There is a small chance MVFR could develop across the Medford area, but chances of that currently appear to be only about 30% at KMFR. ~Miles && .MARINE...Updated 835 PM PDT Thursday, 2 June 2022... Southerly winds and seas will gradually build Friday afternoon and evening as a stronger front approaches. Advisory level conditions are expected to develop across the coastal waters late Friday afternoon through Friday night. The front will then move through Saturday into Saturday night bringing gale force southerly winds and very steep southwesterly seas across most of the coastal waters area. Winds and seas are likely to subside Sunday into Monday. ~BTL/Miles && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 521 PM PDT Thu Jun 2 2022/ UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs. SHORT TERM... Plenty of cumulus clouds, showers and thunderstorms are starting to build up on the radar scope this afternoon. It seems most of the convection has been firing just north of Lake and Klamath Counties, although we would expect that to expand slightly over the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. The chance of storms farther to the west is pretty low around 15 percent. The HRRR has been very stingy on developing convection west of the Cascades, although some of the other convecting models are more willing to initiate it. In any case, storms remain in the forecast through the evening hours. By later tonight into Friday morning, the forecast story becomes muddled as a cold front begins to approach the Oregon coastline. The upper level pattern remains with zonal flow with an upper level well offshore the Pacific Northwest. Models seem willing to paint some light rain along the coast in addition to locations along the Umpqua Basin. Model soundings suggest pockets of moisture along with dry pockets of air, so precipitation will likely fall as a light rain or drizzle tonight into tomorrow morning. In addition, some the model output statistics hint at fog along the southern Oregon coastline. Conditions should remain drier inland Friday, although models increase the precipitation forecast into Friday evening. This seems to be from the leading edge of the atmospheric river along with a quick moving shortwave. The lower probability of rain continues into Saturday morning, although the general weather conditions really begin to change into later Saturday. This storm system for early June is fairly anomalous with an atmospheric river and integrated water vapor transport around 500 hitting the coast. Again, values this high are usually what we see during the winter months. In addition, the surface low bottoms out around 1000 mb right off the Oregon coastline Saturday evening. Again, these values are in the 99.5th percentile this time of year and is fairly unusual late May into early June. The overall weather hazards remain minimal as the rain and precipitation will be welcome by most, although the impacts to public will be elevated because of the number out outdoor events and recreation planned for this time of year on Saturday evening. Overall, we`re forecasting around 0.15 inches up to 0.3 inches of rain for most locations west of the Cascades Saturday evening. Along the coast, those values will be higher with lower totals east of the Cascades. A cold front just offshore Saturday night will approach the coast into Sunday morning. Once the front moves onshore and an upper level wave rotates through, we`ll see the precipitation on the downtrend with some clearing skies into Sunday afternoon and evening. In general, Sunday will be a transition day before we warm and dry out in the extended forecast. -Smith LONG TERM...Monday June 6th through Thursday June 9th...After some lingering showers over the Cascades and Umpqua Basin Monday morning, a A warming and drying trend is expected next week. Significant warming is forecast on Tuesday, with afternoon temperatures trending 10 degrees warmer than Monday. This puts Tuesday high temperatures about 5 degrees above normal for this time of year. Confidence has increased for further warming later in the week, potentially reaching the highest temperatures so far this warm season. Latest data suggests temperature will peak Thursday or Friday, and Medford might experience the first 90-degree day of the year. Though confidence is high on warming and drying through most of the week, there is a large variance in possible conditions for next weekend, so we`re not sure how long the warm and dry trend will continue. AVIATION...03/00Z TAFs... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are occuring for areas along, near, and east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening, as well as from Mt. Shasta northeast towards KLMT. Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph are possible in and near any thunderstorm. KLMT has been affected by these gusts and further gusts remain possible for at least the next hour while convection is ongoing. These storms have also been producing fairly consistent in-cloud lightning strikes, with some ground strikes having been observed. Elsewhere, IFR ceilings from marine stratus exist offshore of the Coos County coast, with VFR elsewhere. Late this afternoon MVFR to IFR is likely to return to all coastal areas as the stratus redevelops and pushes inland, with partial terrain obscurations in the coastal mountains. A front is expected to bring widespread showers along and near the coast, and in the Umpqua Basin Friday morning, spreading inland by Friday afternoon. MVFR may begin to affect areas east of the coast range over the interior west side, especially in the Roseburg and Umpqua Basin area, around 12Z, through the morning. There is a small chance MVFR could develop across the Medford area, but chances of that currently appear to be only about 30% at KMFR. ~Miles MARINE...Updated 250 PM PDT Thursday, 2 June 2022... A weak cold front will move across the coastal waters this evening and then onshore early Friday with light to moderate southerly winds and generally low, mixed period seas from the southwest. Southerly winds and seas will then gradually build Friday afternoon and evening as a stronger frontal system approaches. Advisory level conditions are expected to develop across the coastal waters late Friday afternoon through Friday night. The frontal system will then move through Saturday into Saturday night bringing gale force southerly winds and very steep southwesterly seas across most of the coastal waters area, in the 10 to 30NM area fanning out north- northwestward from the vicinity of Buoy 15. Winds and seas are then likely to subside Sunday into Monday with a period of impacting northerlies likely south of Cape Blanco Monday afternoon and evening. ~BTL Keene && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters... Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Friday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356. Hazardous Seas Warning from noon to 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Friday to noon PDT Saturday for PZZ370-376. Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ370-376. $$ SBN/SBN/SBN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
843 PM PDT Thu Jun 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS...A broad trough of low pressure over the West will continue to bring gusty onshore winds, cooler conditions, and periods of high clouds to the region. Low clouds will also continue along the coast and bays. A stronger disturbance will bring a chance of rain for late Saturday into Sunday, with the brunt of the rainfall focusing on North Bay. && of 08:43 PM PDT Thursday...Filtered sunset as high clouds passing overhead this evening. Low clouds continue to lurk off the coast. The advertised cooling trend materialized early this afternoon as maximum temperatures topped out in the 70s and 80s inland and 60s and 70s coast. The biggest cooldown occurred around SF Bay and through the Delta due to strong onshore flow. Temperatures dropped 5-10 degrees from Wednesday`s maximum temperatures. The onshore flow also resulted in some breezy to gusty conditions. KSFO peaked with a gust to 37 kts or 43 mph earlier this evening. A handful of other spots around the region saw gusts 20-40 mph. For tonight: The low clouds lurking off the coast are slowly spreading toward the coast. This trend is forecast to continue tonight with a marine layer reformation. This fits with the latest HRRR and HREF models, which indicate low clouds along the coast by Friday morning. To round out the workweek - continued onshore flow and cooling is expected. Temperatures will drop another 3-8 degrees roughly, which will put maximum temperatures below seasonal average. The short term weather item of note is a late season rain chance for NorCal. Early look at the 00Z NAM shows the slowing trend continuing and keeping the bulk of the steadier rain to the north. Won`t make any changes at this time. The night shift will have a full set of model data to fine tune the forecast. For more details see below... && .PREV DISCUSSION...As of 01:50 PM PDT Thursday...Water vapor imagery continues to show a broad trough of low pressure along the West Coast, with several disturbances moving through this trough. One of which is poised off the Central California, and will move inland across Northern California later today and tonight. While no rain is expect with this first disturbance, cooler conditions will prevail, with temperatures already running 5 to 10 degrees cooler across the inland valleys today. Gusty onshore winds will continue, with locally breezy through the favored passes and gaps. Although it is hard to see through the high clouds, pilots are reporting low clouds spilling over the Golden Gate today. While it looks like the low clouds are somewhat patchy below the high clouds, believe the low clouds will reform and quickly move inland this evening across a good portion of the Bay Area and Monterey Bay by late tonight. Another weak disturbance will then move across the region tomorrow, bringing more high clouds and additional cooling. The greatest cooling will once again be felt across the inland areas, falling 5 to 10 degrees below normal. The main concern of this forecast period continues to be with the disturbance for the weekend. The models continue to show a decent moisture tap with this system, with a PW plume of nearly 1.5 inches pointed at Northern California late Saturday and into Sunday. However, the forcing is minimal to marginal at best, and falls apart as this system moves south across the region. This is the reason why there is high confidence that North Bay will get a decent wetting rain, with models consistently showing between 0.1 and 0.33 inches in North Bay and between 0.5 and 0.7 inches in the coastal mountains. However, amounts quickly taper off as one moves southward, with just a few hundredths possible across the Bay Area proper and trace amounts for the Monterey Bay. At this point in time, think most areas will see some light rain or sprinkles. Probably enough to wet the roads, but not enough to water your plants. Models continue to trend slower with the onset of rain as well, focusing the timing more late Saturday afternoon or evening on North Bay, and then slowly moving south through Sunday. Drier and warmer conditions will develop for early next week and persist through midweek, as weak ridging rebuilds over the region. Palmer && .AVIATION...As of 7:16 PM PDT Thursday...For the 00Z TAFs. It`s VFR over land while visible satellite shows stratus clouds are approaching the inner coastal waters. The marine layer is 1,000 feet deep per Bodega Bay profiler data and current 00z Oakland sounding. Pressure gradients are 3.7 mb SFO-SAC and 2.4 mb ACV- SFO. Onshore winds predominating, stratus will continue to move toward the coast and then inland tonight and Friday morning. A dry mid level trough moving eastward across the Bay Area early this evening will continue cool air advection aloft resulting in a weakening and lifting of the lower level temperature inversion, i.e. a deepening of the marine layer as the stratus moves inland tonight and Friday morning. The NAM/WRF-ARW/ECMWF forecast very light to light measurable coastal drizzle developing late tonight and Friday morning; light drizzle not currently in the 00z tafs, but will monitor and amend as necessary through the evening and overnight. Otherwise stratus clouds lifting and mixing out Friday morning since cool air advection will lift and erode the marine layer temperature inversion by late morning or afternoon. Vicinity of KSFO...Gusty west wind to 35 to 40 knots until 06z this evening, an airport weather warning for wind was issued. VFR then stratus reaching the coast moves inland mid to late evening and overnight, increasing chances of IFR at least initially. lower level cool air advection on a west wind will steadily lift and erode the lower level temperature inversion, thus the ceiling may tend to lift to MVFR late tonight or Friday morning. VFR by late morning Friday. Otherwise west wind continuing through the forecast period. KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay...West to northwest winds will usher stratus clouds /IFR-MVFR/ inland tonight and Friday morning. Not in 00z tafs, however patchy light coastal drizzle is a possibility tonight and Friday morning. Cool air advection aloft will lift and weaken lower level temperature inversion thus deepening and then fully mixing out the marine layer mainly Friday. && of 6:08 PM PDT Thursday...A long period southwest swell is passing over the waters. Generally light wind and seas north of Pigeon Point with much stronger northerly winds south of Point Pinos tonight. Wind and seas will subside by Friday ahead of an approaching front that will cause winds to turn southerly over the weekend as the cold front slides south across the region. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: MM/Palmer AVIATION: Canepa MARINE: RW Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
900 PM PDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Updated aviation discussion and headlines .SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening. The marine layer will deepen through Friday morning, leading to cooler temperatures and a few showers Friday afternoon. An unseasonably strong and moist frontal system will bring wet conditions throughout the forecast area this weekend and breezy conditions to the immediate coast. The overall storm track slides north next week with temperatures returning above normal. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night: Deeper convection underway at this hour, especially over the North Oregon Cascades where multiple thunderstorms have developed. A couple of these cells have generated radar indicated modest sized hail, but feel the main threat will continue to be heavy rainfall. Storm motions are 10 kts or less and PW values 0.85-0.90". There is still the strong dry layer just above 850 mb, however, rain is able to penetrate through it as gages are starting to record rain around Mt Hood. 20Z HRRR continues to focus convection nearer the north Cascade crest and Hood River Valley into this evening, however, the last few runs are bringing a thunderstorm threat westward to encompass the Portland Metro and points northward along I-5 past Kelso/Longview. Did include that threat through this evening. The storm environment is not all that different west of the Cascades so even if we don`t see thunderstorms in the Metro, heavy showers could still pose problems if one remains fairly stationary. Today`s convection still is fairly dependent on on solar heating. Thus, expect most action will dissipate closer to sunset, but did keep a mention until nearly midnight on the chance an incoming shortwave is able to maintain action for a couple more hours. The better broad scale lift will push east of the Cascades for Friday as the parent upper low center moves eastward to near 47N, 135W tonight. Will still have some lingering showers overnight and into Friday morning. Solar Heating Friday will then trigger another afternoon of showery weather but under continued elevated PW values generally 0.75-0.90". These showers will have a little more motion to them, but could still drop a quick quarter inch of rain, especially during the heat of the afternoon. Somewhat warmer air aloft will arrive near that time plus the better large scale dynamics are further east so any thunderstorm threat should stay well east of the Cascade Crest. The next shortwave will rotate toward the PacNW Friday evening and the precip mode will transition from showers back toward stratiform. At this point, the 12Z model runs have diverged from their stronger agreement just 24 hours ago. The 12Z GFS (with support from the Canadian) is wanting to split the flow to an extent sending the initial Friday night shortwave a little north of our area but still bringing a decent rain. It then sends Saturday afternoon/night`s wave a little further south towards SW Oregon/NorCal but still clipping much of our area south of the Columbia River. Regardless, QPF amounts retain a solid rainfall with 0.50-1.50" amounts for the 36 hour period to include trailing showers Sunday. The ECMWF is keeping a more concise system aimed for our CWA with amounts nearer 0.75-2.00" over the same period. 12Z WPC guidance came in quite a bit higher pushing 2.50 to 3.00 inches across parts of the Cascades. Ended up taking a 50/50 blend of the WPC Guidance and the NBM 4.1 (and its heavier lean on the EC) blend which still increased amount higher from the previous shift, but nowhere as extreme as the WPC amounts. In any case, anybody planning on hanging out in downtown Portland Saturday evening should expect moderately heavy rainfall. In other details, temperatures will remain mild as the region will stay largely under the influence of the deep southwesterly flow as the upper remains nearly stationary off the Strait of Juan deFuca through Sunday night. As such, snow levels stay fairly high as well with only the high peaks seeing any snow threat. Additionally, a 996 mb surface low will strengthen and slide north along 130W Saturday afternoon and evening. This would mainly keep the stronger winds over the waters as the pressure gradients never really become south to north along the coast. Might get some gusts up to 35 mph along the exposed headlands, but that`s the extend of the land wind threat. Sunday might be a little better as low pressure moves inland across B.C. but still hard pressed to get gusts much outside of 20- 25 mph. Also on Sunday, the air mass will somewhat destabilize again as the final shortwave in this system will cool temps aloft while the surface will maintain it`s warmer nature and solar heating. 17Z NBM thunderstorm probs bring chances for much of the region with 25- 35% probs covering the eastern reaches of the CWA, including the Portland Metro and areas east of I-5. /JBonk .Long-term...Monday through Thursday: Medium range models come back in general agreement for the long term forecast although details still in question as expected. Shortwave high pressure builds northward as the upper low retreats northwest. Will see some lingering showers Monday, but Tuesday looks like it will be dry through sunset. Wednesday, another lobe of the previous upper low shortwave will swing toward the coast but models generally weaken the associated front. Still may see some light showers across the region but suspect the trend will be to remove those over the next few days. Thursday has another shortwave ridge building across the area for dry weather. This then transitions to longwave ridging pushing north again Thursday night and into Friday. Our area will be staying on the warm side of the jet and easily keep temperatures above normal. /JBonk && .AVIATION...06Z TAFs: As the sun sets convection diminishes aside from a few short lived cells currently making their way across the Portland metro. Convection should cease across the CWA by 06Z with VFR and light southerly winds inland for much of the night. Cooling of the boundary layer will drop coastal sites into MVFR criteria between 06-09Z Friday, later for terminals along the northern coasts. A Pacific frontal system will send a cold front east towards the coast overnight which will ramp up southerly winds along the coast and lift ceilings into MVFR criteria by Friday morning. Southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front will likely push some marine stratus into the Willamette Valley during the overnight hours between 13-17Z. Southerly winds will persist throughout the forecast period with light rain after 12Z. For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominantly VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period. Southwesterly flow in the mid levels will likely bring some marine stratus inland which could bring the PDX terminal into MVFR criteria for a couple hours starting around 13Z. A return to VFR after 17Z Friday. -BrianaMuhlestein && .MARINE...Southerly wind increase tonight 10-20 kt tonight as a weak front clips the waters. A stronger front will likely impact the waters over the weekend as a low pressure system swings through on Saturday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are probable later Friday into Saturday morning while southerly winds increase through the day. The potential for low end gales remains, and will issue a Gale Watch for the outer zones Saturday afternoon through evening. Still some uncertainty in the forecast models are closer in agreement with the strength and track of the low. Winds should gradually decrease through Sunday. A westerly swell will gradually build to around 5 to 7 ft through Friday. Seas then build further on Saturday, driven primarily by the southerly wind waves, to around 10 feet by Saturday evening. Seas then gradually subside into early next week. /DH/mh && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 11 AM PDT Saturday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 nm. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 nm. && && $$ Interact with us via social media:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
725 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push through the region this evening with rain and thunderstorms. Dry weather with temperatures near normal are expected Friday through Sunday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns on Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 715 PM EDT Thursday... Clearing Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through this evening as a front passes through the area. Rain is expected to end across southeastern West Virginia by 9 PM but not until around midnight for areas along the Blue Ridge. Somewhere around 4 AM, showers will exit the piedmont. As of 140 PM EDT Thursday... The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remain for this afternoon. Already watching an ongoing cluster of storms over southeast West Virginia that continue to move eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected further east as the afternoon progresses. Strong surface heating is well underway with temperatures into the 80s and lower 90s across most of Virginia, West Virginia, and North Carolina. RAP analysis already indicating 1000 - 1500 J/kg MLCAPE along with increasing effective shear across the entire region. Although the strongest shear/instability overlap remains further north into portions of northern Virginia and southern Pennsylvania, strong destabilization and modest shear locally will still support clusters of storms which will have the ability to produce strong damaging wind gusts and locally large hail. The main surface front is still to the west over eastern portions of Kentucky and Ohio this afternoon. This front will push through later tonight with potentially another broken line of storms along it. Shower/thunderstorm activity begins to dwindle by midnight as drier air from the northwest begins to filter into the region. Still some uncertainty on the amount of lingering cloud cover tonight, but with recent rainfall and cooling temperatures, could definitely see some valley fog Friday morning. Much drier and cooler airmass for Friday with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 70s/low 80s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM EDT Thursday... ..Expect near normal temperatures and very little chance of precipitation this weekend... Thursday`s cold front will be just south of the region on Friday. The vast majority of the region is expected not to have any rain. However, some lingering showers will be possible across portions of the mountains and foothills of northwest North Carolina during Friday morning. High pressure will build over the area during the weekend bringing seasonable temperatures back to the area. As the center of the high starts to shift east of the region, there may be enough of a return of moisture into the area to generate isolated showers over the North Carolina mountains Sunday afternoon, and farther north into parts of southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia Sunday night. Confidence in the above weather scenario is high. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 255 PM EDT Thursday... Mild and unsettled weather expected through the period. During this portion of the forecast, flow aloft will be almost zonal each day. A series of shortwave troughs will ride along the flow, into and across our region. This type of pattern will keep the region on the mild side with more than simply diurnal- type showers and storms. The challenge though is the variability in the guidance in depicting the timing of each of these features. While not represented equally among the guidance, there is some clustering around the Tuesday afternoon and then Wednesday night as the times currently with the best chances for the crossing of one of the shortwave troughs. The resultant forecast will be one that offers daily chances of showers and storms with peaks in those probabilities around the times mentioned above. With no push of colder air into the area, each day should be above normal for this time of year. Confidence in the above scenario is moderate. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 723 PM EDT Thursday... A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region and Carolinas tonight and move east of the area Friday morning. Light showers and a few thunderstorms are possible this evening. Through the early morning hours, patchy fog is likely to develop if skies become clear. KLWB is the only TAF site with strong confidence to see fog below MVFR. With dry air coming in behind the front and the upslope weakening on Friday morning, the sky will begin to clear between 6-10 AM. All TAF locations eventually go VFR mid-Friday morning. Extended Aviation Discussion... Clouds will remain over North Carolina and southern Virginia but ceilings will be VFR through Friday evening. Conditions are expected to remain VFR through the upcoming weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the mountains Sunday afternoon. On Monday thunderstorms with MVFR conditions will be scattered over the mountains and isolated in the foothills and piedmont. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...DS/SH LONG TERM...DS/SH AVIATION...RCS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
758 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 741 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Latest satellite and radar indicates showers and thunderstorms across the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico. The HRRR is initializing well with this activity. It, and several other CAMs indicate this activity eventually moving into Southeast New Mexico later this evening and organizing into a east to southeast moving MCS during the morning hours, eventually reaching our western counties around 4 AM or 5 AM. This activity is then forecast to move across the Big Country/Concho Valley before beginning to weaken between 8 AM and 10 AM. There remains some uncertainty on the exact evolution of this MCS and exactly how far east this convection will make it, before dissipating, but I went ahead and increased PoPs across the Big Country and Concho Valley, and brought some slight chance PoPs farther south and east. The main threats with this activity look to be locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. Although severe weather is not anticipated at this time, a few winds gusts over 50 mph and small hail are possible. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 The front has stalled along the I-10 corridor today. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early this evening across the southern part of our area, where the airmass is unstable with MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg. For tonight, a disturbance aloft is progged to move around the northern periphery of an upper high (centered over Mexico), and track east-southeast into our area Friday morning. Some of the CAMs indicate the development of showers and thunderstorms in West Texas after Midnight, with the convection moving east-southeast into the Big Country and northern half of the Concho Valley late tonight and early Friday morning. Carrying the highest PoPs (40-50 percent) in the Big Country, and in the Big Country and northern Heartland areas Friday morning. The main overall hazard will be lightning, but gusty winds will be possible along the leading edge of this convection. Small hail will also be possible with the stronger storms, along with locally heavy rainfall. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s. Uncertain with some of the details at this time on how the scenario will unfold on Friday. Anticipate that the morning convection will dissipate, but the models differ on prospects for subsequent redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. With subsidence expected in the wake of the departing disturbance, leaning at this time toward a scenario of only isolated development near leftover outflow boundaries. Considerable morning cloud cover will be followed by decreasing cloudiness during the afternoon. Highs are expected to range from the lower 80s in the northern Big Country, to lower 90s in our southern counties. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 No pleasant way to say this, but record breaking heat is once again expected across West Central Texas for at least Sunday- Tuesday. Upper level ridge builds into place and pushes 850MB temperatures up above 30C, and even above 33C across portions of the Concho Valley. Surface temperatures soaring above 105 likely across almost all of the area (exception may be the far northern Big Country). Records at Abilene and San Angelo expected to fall, both for afternoon highs and perhaps for warm morning lows as well. Current forecast and records include: Sun-5th Mon-6th Tue-7th Abilene 106/1948 104/1948 103/1896 Forecast: 102 105 107 San Angelo 106/2010 105/2018 107/1994 Forecast: 106 108 108 Some of the longer range models do suggest that a cold front and a few showers or storms are possible by the end of next week or into the weekend, but that would require the upper ridge to break down on schedule and these ridges are often slow to do that during the summer. Will hold a dry forecast for now. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Between about 09Z and 15Z, scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA are expected to move from west to east across much of the forecast area, bringing TEMPO IFR/LIFR VIS/CIGs in heavy rain, along with briefly gusty/erratic winds. Storms/showers should become more isolated and gradually dissipate between 15Z and 18Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through about 09Z, then mainly MVFR conditions are expected to develop 09Z to 15Z across most of the forecast area. 15-18Z, expect conditions to gradually become widespread VFR, with VFR conditions then continuing through 00Z Sat. Winds will be mainly out of the NE to E at 5-8 KT through 10Z before becoming SE at 6-10 KT thereafter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 66 84 67 95 / 50 50 20 10 San Angelo 67 89 69 99 / 40 30 10 10 Junction 68 91 69 99 / 10 30 10 10 Brownwood 66 85 67 95 / 20 50 10 10 Sweetwater 65 85 68 98 / 60 50 20 10 Ozona 69 92 70 96 / 10 20 10 10 Brady 68 89 68 96 / 20 30 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...SJH