Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/03/22
See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022
A somewhat blocky pattern is expected to persist over the Northern
Plains through the next few days. That pattern consisting of a mid
level low near Hudson`s Bay, with an upstream ridge over the
Rockies. Flow around the upper low will tend to keep a cooler
airmass over the region into the weekend, along with several chances
of rain. The first chance of rain will be for Friday, and mainly
across southern South Dakota as a pv anomaly moves through the flow.
It appears up to a half inch is possible along the I90 corridor,
with much less the further north you go. The showers may linger into
Saturday, but with less coverage vs Friday. The highest chances for
any convection would appear to exist over the south central CWA
through the period. This area will have just a bit more LLM and
afternoon instability. At this time no severe weather is expected.
Temperatures will remain on the coolish side given that forecast
anomalies continue to favor below normal through the period.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022
The extended period is looking a bit active with generally below
normal temperatures. Models continue to suggest northwest flow aloft
early on in the period, and maybe trying to transition to more zonal
flow, but still some uncertainty in this. The trend seen in previous
forecast still seems to hold this time around, in that the areas
missing out on recent rains may have the best chance to see precip
with the few waves moving through during the first half of the
extended period. Did not make any changes to inherited POPs, which
continue to highlight the western/southern CWA with highest POPs
during the first half of the period. Then, still too much
uncertainty in latter half waves that look to potentially be
crossing the northern plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Iso`d/wdly
sct`d showers or thunderstorms may be developing or moving near
the KPIR terminal by the end of the TAF valid period.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Dorn
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1033 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022
.UPDATE...
Evening Update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1024 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022/
Remainder of tonight.
Adjusted pops for tonight based on progression of pre-frontal
boundary. We are in a lull right now. The front is nearing the
Interstate 59 corridor. Although convection is not accompanying
the front, a wind shift will be observed. There is drier air
behind the front, but it lags behind it some. Hires models
indicate a post-front upper shortwave during the early morning
hours Friday. I have some 30-50 percent pops entering back from
the far W before sunrise, but most of the showers should be after
sunrise.
08
Previous short-term discussion:
/Updated at 1253 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022/
Through Friday.
A convective complex of storms has developed across West-Central
Alabama this morning and this activity is moving east-southeast
and will affect much of the forecast area through the rest of the
afternoon hours. A shortwave trough is located near the AL/MS
border at 500 mb per RAP mesoanalysis data with more shortwaves to
the west where a longwave trough is progged to deepen over the
Arklatex region by this evening. An outflow boundary is across the
Northern and Central counties aligned roughly just northwest of
the Interstate 59 corridor. The wet microburst risk today is low
with the best potential across the southwest. A few severe storms
are possible today with damaging winds and some hail the risks.
Highs will range from the upper 80s northwest to the low 90s
southeast.
A surface cold front will slowly from the northwest tonight and
tomorrow and will result in scattered to numerous showers and
storms this afternoon and into the evening hours. We will
experience a decrease in activity overnight but isolated showers
and a few storms will remain possible overnight. Lows will range
the upper 60s north to around 70 south.
Best PoPs will be across the southern half of the forecast area
on Friday as the weakening front stalls just north of the
Interstate 20 corridor with slightly drier air filtering into the
far northern counties during the day. Highs will range from the
lower 80s northeast to near 90 far southeast.
05
.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 348 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022/
Made minor changes to the temps over the weekend, but still expect
highs in the 80s on Saturday and mid 80s to lower 90s on Sunday.
Given the track of the potential tropical system across southern
Florida, low level wind flow across Central Alabama on Saturday will
have a more northerly direction, pulling drier air into the area.
This will help keep conditions dry, and have removed the low pops
for Saturday afternoon.
14
Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 237 AM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022/
Friday night through Wednesday.
Lower dew points will continue to filter southward behind the cold
front Friday night putting an end to rain chances and resulting in
pleasant low temperatures, with some of the typically cooler
locations reaching the upper 50s. This dry air mass should largely
inhibit convection Saturday afternoon as a potential tropical
system passes well southeast of the area across South Florida, but
easterly winds could advect in sufficient moisture for an
isolated shower/storm in the southeast counties. Embedded
convectively enhanced shortwaves in northwest flow bring a return
in shower/storm chances Sunday/Monday, and will have to watch for
any MCSs that develop. Ridging strengthens along the Gulf Coast
Tuesday/Wednesday, with an associated increase in high
temperatures and heat indices near 100F in spots. Small rain
chances will become confined to the northeast counties on the edge
of the heat dome.
32/Davis
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.
Pre-frontal boundary convection is tapering down. A few showers
are possible over the next few hours for MGM/TOI, but generally
we are in a lull in the activity with VFR/mid level cloudiness
across C AL. The front will move through tonight, but only
isolated convection is anticipated with it. Some MVFR cigs are
possible in the morning along with additional SHRA (behind the
front) as an upper shortwave moves across from W to E. Activity
should clear from NW to SE during Friday afternoon as the
shortwave pushes E out of AL.
08
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through
Friday, as a weak cold front moves through the area. Northwesterly
winds tonight become northerly Friday, at 6-10mph. RH values
remain above 45 percent Friday afternoon. Drier air moves in on
Saturday with RH values in the 38 to 45 percent range.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 67 83 61 86 63 / 20 30 0 10 10
Anniston 68 81 62 87 64 / 20 30 0 10 10
Birmingham 68 84 63 87 67 / 20 30 0 10 10
Tuscaloosa 69 87 64 88 66 / 20 30 0 10 10
Calera 68 84 65 87 67 / 20 30 0 10 10
Auburn 68 85 66 86 67 / 20 40 10 10 10
Montgomery 71 84 67 90 68 / 20 40 10 10 10
Troy 69 87 67 89 68 / 20 50 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
803 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022
Quiet night with forecast tracking along with observations quite
well. Convective cell has popped in South Park, right about where
the HRRR said it would. Lingering instability in that area has
CAPE of about 500 j/kg, and GOES GLM and ground based lightning
detection picking up some in cloud flashes. Storms should
dissipate through midnight as CAPE wanes.
Have made some small changes to blend in NBM overnight low temps,
cooling lows off on the plains a few degrees. This also lowers
the Temp/dewpoint spread, and added patchy fog in Lincoln and
southern Elbert counties. Finally, blended in some guidance with
lower pops to drop below slight chance category across much of the
area, while still trending toward chance/slight chance in Park
County and into the Palmer divide.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022
Isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible into the early
evening hours with the better chances south of I-70. Conditions
dry out before midnight with lows in upper 40s for the plains and
30s for most of the high country. Friday, a flattened upper level
ridge remains over CO. Embedded shortwave energy in the flow
moves across into the evening coupled with weak synoptic ascent
ahead of it. 700mb temperatures warm to 9-13C promoting temps
close to normal. Highs will likely range in the upper 70s to low
80s across the plains and 60s over the high country. Moisture
increases into the afternoon with precipitable water values
increasing to .5- .8". This will likely bring in more cloud
coverage which may keep highs cooler by a degree or two.
Given the upper level support, there will be a chance for scattered
showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Instability will be in
place with MLCAPE values 1000-2000 J/kg over the plains and steep
midlevel lapse rates. Shear will be in modest amounts. This will
support the marginal threat for a few strong to severe storms. Main
limitation will be the weakly capped environment as indicated from
model soundings, especially across the eastern plains. This will
keep confidence lower in the shower/thunderstorm chances and
coverage. Overall, the environment supports scattered storms with a
fewer stronger ones. Model soundings exhibit an inverted V structure
with decent DCAPE values 900-1100 J/kg, so gusty outflow winds may
be one of the more likely threats with any stronger storms. Small
hail is possible as well. In terms of timeframe, CAMs agree on
the best chances in the mid afternoon to early evening timeframe.
CAMs also indicate some uncertainty in the location, but best
chances will start over the high country in the afternoon then
spreading onto the plains.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022
The long term period will be pretty active with a series of
shortwaves within persistent zonal flow. With decent moisture over
eastern Colorado, there will be a chance of showers and storms
nearly every day.
Storms will be ongoing Friday evening and the HREF models favor a
complex of storms coming off the Cheyenne Ridge towards far
northeast Colorado. The environment will have healthy amounts of
CAPE (up to 2,000 j/kg) and deep layer shear (50 knots of bulk
shear) to support strong to severe storms capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and large hail. PoPs and QPF were raised during
the evening hours mainly in Logan, Sedgwick, and Phillips Counties.
The high resolution models also target another possible area of
storms along the Palmer Ridge which could be strong to severe in
Elbert and Lincoln Counties. The storms will move east of our CWA by
midnight.
On Saturday, there will be a weak ridge that moves over Colorado.
This will limit the coverage of showers and storms. However, there
will be a boundary that acts like a back door cold front that
pushes into the northeast corner of Colorado during the afternoon.
Along and north of this boundary, there will be enough
instability and lift to generate a few storms. At this time, the
CAPE and shear values are not very high but steep lapse rates mean
there is a chance of strong wind gusts with these storms.
A weak shortwave trough moves across our area Sunday morning but it
won`t produce much of any precipitation since it won`t be timed with
peak heating. By the afternoon Sunday, there will be slight ridging
over Colorado. Weak instability will build in that will allow a few
showers and storms to form. It is unlikely that these will be severe
due to the lack of much instability and shear.
Monday and Tuesday will be rather active weather days as there will
be severe weather and flooding concerns. A strong jet will move
across Wyoming and Nebraska with healthy moisture return in the low
levels across eastern Colorado. Precipitable water values will
approach 1.5 inches in Lincoln County on Monday evening which is
ample moisture for storms to produce heavy rain. Storms will form
in the afternoon and evening as instability develops favoring
eastern Colorado where the best moisture is. The ECMWF Extreme
Forecast Index highlights an area in east-central Colorado that
may see excessive QPF values. In the coming days it will be easier
to determine whether the heavy rain threat is only in Goodland`s
CWA or is in our CWA as well.
A relatively strong shortwave trough for June will move across
Wyoming on Tuesday. This will provide a source of lift over our
forecast area along with strong deep layer shear. In addition, there
will continue to be healthy low level moisture in place especially
over far eastern Colorado. The question mark with regards to storms
and severe weather will be how much instability will develop. If
instability in on the higher side, good coverage of strong to severe
storms would be possible. If there are too many low clouds that
limit instability, then there may not be many storms at all.
Otherwise, temperatures will be near normal for the long term period
with fire danger on the lower side.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 519 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022
Light ENE winds continue through 03Z at all sites. Winds should
shift to the southeast then staying mostly south to southeast
through the night under 11kts. Mid to low level sticks around
through Friday morning therefore, this update includes lower BKN
cloud decks starting 03Z through 9Z at KDEN and KAPA. VFR
conditions continue through the entire TAF period for all sites.
Friday, scattered thunderstorms are possible but CAMs keep most
storms south of KDEN thus keeping VCTS in all terminals for now;
there is higher confidence in timing for thunderstorms beginning
19Z through 00Z Friday evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 257 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022
There is a small risk flash flooding for the burn areas east of the
Divide Friday afternoon. Flow aloft will keep storms moving more
quickly across areas limiting the flash flood risk. The potential
for a heavier shower or storm over the burn areas has contributed
to the small risk Friday afternoon.
Flash flooding in the burn areas is unlikely Saturday and Sunday.
There is a potential for stronger storms on Monday and Tuesday but
they will be moving quickly. Therefore, a limited threat for burn
area flash flooding exists on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Danielson
AVIATION...AD
HYDROLOGY...Mensch/Danielson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
548 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022
...Updated for 00Z TAF Discussion...
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
We have just enough moisture in the area to fire off a few
thunderstorms this early evening. Isolated thunderstorms will
continue for the next 3 hours. The main threat from the these
storms will be strong outflow winds which can move out a good
distance from the storms. Closer to the storms, 1 inch hail could
also be a problem. The storms will die down later this evening, as
will our gusty winds. For the rest of tonight we will see south
or southeast winds. There will again be another chance for
isolated thunderstorms on Friday, but that thunderstorm chance
will be even lower than today as drier air looks to push back
across the region and give us some low end gusty winds from the
west tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...216 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances are still possible
this afternoon/evening, especially for areas along and east of the
Rio Grande River. Some may be strong to severe. Gusty wind and
hail will be the primary hazards. Isolated storms may be possible
again on Friday, mainly focusing over eastern zones once again.
Dry air moves into the region on Saturday, bringing breezy
afternoon winds for the weekend and temperatures near normal. We
warm up to near triple digits in the lowlands on Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday...
Moisture has returned to the CWA with most locations east of the
Divide reporting dew points AOA 50 degrees as of 1PM. Even toward
the AZ border, moisture has been a bit slower to erode than forecast
with dew points still in the 40s. Albeit slower than expected, dry
air is expected to push back to the east this afternoon, stalling
toward the Rio Grande Valley by evening before pushing back to the
west overnight. East of this boundary, thunderstorm chances will
continue, but with lack of upper-level forcing and a decent cap,
thunderstorm initiation will have to rely on orographic lift and
then subsequent outflows for the lowlands. The RAP is still showing
instability over 1000 J/kg. This instability combined with 25 to 30
knots of shear suggest a few storms could be strong to severe this
afternoon with large hail and damaging winds the main threat, aided
by T-Td spread of 30-40 degrees.
Convection is expected to gradually dissipate and exit the area by
midnight while the dry line/cold front is pushed back to the west
overnight, reaching the AZ border by sunrise. Westerlies will once
again try to push the moisture back to the east, aided by a weak s/w
suggested in the GFS. This time, we expect the retreating
dryline/cold front to make it farther east taking thunderstorm
chances with it, but eastern areas could still see a chance for a
storm, mainly east of the Rio. CAPE will be a little lower while
shear is comparable, so the threat for severe storms will decrease
but a strong to low-end severe storm can`t be ruled out. Highs
tomorrow will be warmer for areas along the Rio Grande Valley with
the cooler air mass displaced to the east. The 12z HRRR did place a
fly-in-the-ointment by having moisture push in from Mexico giving
southern areas a chance for storms, but it is an outlier with this
scenario. It is still too early to see if the 18z run will follow
suit.
&&
.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday...
Storms over the area should be dissipating(ed) by the start of
the long term period on Friday night. Unless, like what was said
above, storms push into our southern zones from Mexico.
Otherwise, that`s really it for storm chances for the long term.
Any bit of moisture we enjoyed is scoured out of the area by mid-
day Saturday as deep westerly flow continues. This will bring
back dry conditions with breezy afternoon westerly winds for the
weekend. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be near seasonal
average (lowland 90s; mountain 70/80s).
On Monday and Tuesday, subtle UL height rises will bring an
increase in temperatures as the thermal ridge recenter over the
Borderland. Near 100F temps will be possible for lowland areas,
with breezy afternoon winds.
There is a little bit better model agreement for Wednesday that a
backdoor cool front will approach the Sacramento Mountains,
with moist air behind it. It looks like the moisture won`t push
into the region until overnight Wednesday, which is past this
forecast period. However, looking at the various ensembles and
their PW and CAPE values for late next week, it does look like
there is agreement that we may see a moisture surge into next
weekend. Which means: changes for rain.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong moisture recovery is expected again tonight for areas along
and east of the Continental Divide. Thunderstorms remain possible
this evening for areas that stay within the better moisture with
some threat for dry lightning. Tomorrow, the moist air mass is
expected to retreat east, however, with dry air shifting to east of
the Rio Grande Valley by afternoon. Min RH values will fall into the
single digits. Winds will be southwesterly with 20 foot winds
expected to top out around 15 mph with higher gusts. Areas east of
this boundary, mainly the Otero highlands and Hudspeth County, could
see isolated thunderstorms. Dry lightning is a concern with any of
these storms. As we enter the weekend, all locations will see very
dry conditions with warming temperatures. Winds will also be on the
increase with elevated to near-critical fire concerns for the area.
Vent rates will be excellent for most locations.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 67 97 68 99 / 40 10 0 0
Sierra Blanca 62 90 64 92 / 40 30 20 0
Las Cruces 62 96 62 97 / 20 0 0 0
Alamogordo 60 93 59 95 / 40 30 0 0
Cloudcroft 47 74 48 71 / 50 40 20 0
Truth or Consequences 62 93 63 95 / 30 10 0 0
Silver City 53 87 61 85 / 20 0 0 0
Deming 60 95 59 96 / 20 0 0 0
Lordsburg 61 95 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 66 96 68 98 / 30 10 0 0
Dell City 61 92 59 97 / 40 40 20 0
Fort Hancock 64 96 63 100 / 40 20 10 0
Loma Linda 60 90 63 90 / 40 20 10 0
Fabens 64 97 64 99 / 40 10 0 0
Santa Teresa 63 95 62 96 / 30 10 0 0
White Sands HQ 64 94 67 95 / 40 10 0 0
Jornada Range 60 94 60 94 / 40 10 0 0
Hatch 61 95 61 95 / 30 10 0 0
Columbus 62 96 65 97 / 20 0 0 0
Orogrande 62 94 62 95 / 40 20 0 0
Mayhill 49 80 52 83 / 40 40 30 0
Mescalero 47 80 50 82 / 40 40 20 0
Timberon 51 80 53 80 / 40 30 10 0
Winston 48 85 53 89 / 30 10 0 0
Hillsboro 57 90 62 91 / 30 10 0 0
Spaceport 59 93 59 95 / 40 10 0 0
Lake Roberts 49 86 53 87 / 20 10 0 0
Hurley 55 91 56 91 / 20 0 0 0
Cliff 49 94 46 95 / 10 0 0 0
Mule Creek 45 89 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 55 90 59 89 / 20 0 0 0
Animas 59 95 57 95 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 59 95 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 59 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 57 91 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
99/99/15
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
Lingering sea breeze boundary near the coast could kick up a few
more showers and storms this evening near LBX and GLS, but will
dissipate by 02Z. Otherwise, light and variable winds overnight
with patchy fog possible for CXO and UTS. Any patchy fog should
dissipate around sunrise and VFR conditions will prevail. A few
models are hinting at some isolated showers tomorrow afternoon,
but coverage did not warrant any mention of VCSH for now.
Lenninger
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
As I`m writing this discussion (around 2pm), we have a nice healthy
rain shower right over the office. Other locations around Southeast
Texas are experiencing the same as we have a mixed bag of boundaries
providing focus points for showers and thunderstorms to develop
along. One of these boundaries is a weak cold front, which has
become largely washed out at this point. 12Z CAMs and the latest
HRRR continue to point towards convection reigniting mainly south of
I-10 later this afternoon/evening as one of the boundaries interacts
with the seabreeze. Those that do receive rainfall this afternoon
will get a reprieve from the low 90s with a ~10 degree temperature
drop. The biggest impact from the weak cold front is the surge in
moisture as PW values have risen to 1.7"-1.9". This exceeds the 75th
percentile (1.68"), so localized heavy rainfall is likely with any
of the stronger showers/storms.
Temperatures tonight drop down to right around normal with lows in
the low 70s inland and in the upper 70s along the coast. Expecting a
somewhat similar day for Friday, although rain coverage will be less
than it is today in the morning/early afternoon. Our best chance of
rain comes in the late afternoon/evening as another shortwave moves
through the region. PW values will still range from 1.6"-1.8" with
CAPE values from 1000-1500 J/kg, so we`ll have plenty of moisture
and instability to work with to develop showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures for Friday remain in the upper 80s/low 90s, and
with a later ETA for the rainfall, most locations will actually
reach this number. Behind the aforementioned shortwave trough is one
of the words that we dread during the summertime (I know it`s not
officially summer yet, but it might as well be). No, not the one
that starts with H...this one starts with R! Ridging begins to build
in Friday night, so expect those temperatures to climb over the
weekend. Yay! :(
Batiste
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
On Saturday, as what is now known as Potential Tropical Cyclone One
advances into the Eastern Gulf and approaches the FL coast, surface
high pressure will settle into the Central Gulf and brings about a
return to surface onshore flow. Meanwhile, a midlevel shortwave
trough will pass to our north/northeast during the afternoon on
Saturday, potentially bringing a period of isolated shower/storm
activity to the northern and eastern zones throughout the day.
Global models continue to concentrate most of the associated QPF
well to our north and as a result have generally maintained PoP
values in the vicinity of 20-30%.
Following the departure of the shortwave, an extended period of
upper ridging will build into the Central CONUS and bring about a
typical summertime pattern characterized by warm and humid
conditions to SE TX. NBM remains quite aggressive in its MaxT
guidance in the extended period with the deterministic forecast well
in excess of the median of the overall distribution, particularly
heading into the early part of next week. While 500mb heights to
look to reach the 590-592dam range by this time, am not confident
that this synoptic pattern will produce the widespread highs in the
upper 90s currently projected by the blend. That being said, most
locations inland should see highs in the mid 90s well into next week
with locations northwest of the Houston metro in the upper 90s to
near 100 by mid-week. Overnight lows will gradually inch upward as
WAA increases with a tightening synoptic gradient, with values
mostly in the mid 70s in the early part of the week and reaching the
mid to upper 70s inland and near 80 along the coast by mid-week.
Cady
.MARINE...
Light winds continue across the bays and offshore waters ahead of
the approach of a weak cold front overnight and into tomorrow
morning. As the frontal boundary slowly moves towards the coast,
expect a brief shift to offshore winds during the day on Friday and
additional scattered showers and thunderstorms closer to the coast.
Offshore winds quickly return as we head into the weekend as an area
of surface high pressure moves into the Central Gulf behind the
departure of what is now Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Expect
onshore winds to persist well into next week, with winds and wave
heights at times approaching caution thresholds.
Cady
.TROPICAL...
The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories for
Potential Tropical Cyclone One located near the Yucatan Peninsula
this afternoon. The forecast track takes the tropical cyclone into
the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula over the
weekend. There is no threat to Southeast Texas, but let this be a
reminder that hurricane season is under way.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 91 72 93 73 / 10 40 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 73 90 73 92 74 / 20 30 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 87 78 88 79 / 40 20 20 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1020 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2022
Only a few isolated showers remain in the southern and
southeastern portions of the forecast area. The POP has again
been updated based on latest trends, with only a low POP lingering
late tonight in the aforementioned portions of the forecast area.
UPDATE Issued at 708 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2022
A broken line of showers/thunderstorms has developed and is moving
through the southern and southeastern portions of the JKL forecast
area. Have updated the POP based on radar trends and latest models
runs, with likely or categorical POP in the very near term ahead
of the line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2022
The latest surface analysis shows the cold front entering the
western fringes of the CWA and will continue to progress through the
area this afternoon and evening. Temperatures are currently in the
mid 70s to low 80s with scattered showers and storms across the
area. A better line of storms can be seen upstream along the cold
front. Earlier, a few storms near the Virginia border popped up
quickly but only warranted an SPS.
SPC still have a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over most of
eastern Kentucky with damaging winds remaining the biggest threat.
Earlier clearing over the northern portion of the CWA allowed
temperatures to rise into the upper 70s to low 80s, a couple of
degrees warmer than originally forecast. This extra warmer may have
helped increase instability in the area. the HRRR has suggested shear
values in the 25-30 knot range though the SPC Mesoanalysis hinted at
some shear values closer to 35 knots sneaking into the northern
counties. HRRR and NAMNEST soundings have produced SBCAPE values in
the 1000-1500 J/kg range with DCAPE ranging from 800-900 J/kg. These
DCAPE values would support a marginal threat for severe wind gusts
and based on current trends, would most likely be realized with the
best forcing associated the cold front passing through the area.
Hail also can not be ruled out completely at this point given the
small chance a more organized storm develops in the higher sheared
environment.
Showers and storms will dissipate from west to east with the passage
of the cold front and should be completely out of eastern Kentucky
by 04Z tonight. Behind the front, high pressure will begin to move
in along with subsidence in the upper levels which will help support
fog development across the area, the densest fog is expected to
develop along the river valleys. Lows will fall into the low to
upper 50s. Tomorrow will be cooler with highs topping out in the mid
70s as winds pick up from the north. Friday night lows will fall
into the upper 40s to mid 50s with fog expected to develop along the
river valleys again.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2022
The period starts dry on Saturday under surface high pressure and
zonal flow aloft. There is some model disagreement on Sunday with
the GFS bringing a weak wave through the area which may touch of a
few afternoon and evening showers/storms, while the ECMWF keeps the
area dry. Didn`t stray too far from the NBM and left slight chance
Pops in to account for the differences. There is better model
consensus for Monday through Wednesday as multiple short waves move
through the area around the base of a large upper level low slowly
moving across south-central Canada. This will result in an increased
chance for showers and storms each day, which the highest chances
during the afternoon and evening, and diminishing chances overnight.
Temperatures in the long term period will generally run near to
slightly above normal with high temps in the lower to middle 80s.
Saturday night will be the coolest night of the period with
overnight lows in the low to middle 50s. The remaining nights will
be milder with lows in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 808 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2022
A line of showers and thunderstorms was moving southeast through
southeast KY at the start of the period, bringing localized IFR
conditions. Most locations northwest of the line were VFR. The
line has already passed TAF sites, and will exit the state later
this evening. Overnight, fog will develop in valleys and persist
until early morning, bringing IFR or worse conditions. If any TAF
sites are affected, it would most likely be KLOZ and KSME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...BATZ
LONG TERM...CMF
AVIATION...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
903 PM PDT Thu Jun 2 2022
.DISCUSSION...With generally benign thunderstorms winding down
this evening, one of the remaining cells flared up in northern
Klamath county before suddenly collapsing. With the quick drop in
reflectivity have issued a Special Weather Statement for strong,
but likely not severe, outflow winds. Thunderstorms should
continue to taper off this evening, with the widespread rain
moving in to the coast tomorrow morning, and spreading inland
across the east side by tomorrow evening.
&&
.AVIATION...03/00Z TAFs... Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occuring for areas along, near, and east of the
Cascades this afternoon and evening, as well as from Mt. Shasta
northeast towards KLMT. Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph are possible in
and near any thunderstorm. KLMT has been affected by these gusts and
further gusts remain possible for at least the next hour while
convection is ongoing. These storms have also been producing fairly
consistent in-cloud lightning strikes, with some ground strikes
having been observed.
Elsewhere, IFR ceilings from marine stratus exist offshore of the
Coos County coast, with VFR elsewhere. Late this afternoon MVFR to
IFR is likely to return to all coastal areas as the stratus
redevelops and pushes inland, with partial terrain obscurations in
the coastal mountains.
A front is expected to bring widespread showers along and near the
coast, and in the Umpqua Basin Friday morning, spreading inland by
Friday afternoon. MVFR may begin to affect areas east of the coast
range over the interior west side, especially in the Roseburg and
Umpqua Basin area, around 12Z, through the morning. There is a small
chance MVFR could develop across the Medford area, but chances of
that currently appear to be only about 30% at KMFR. ~Miles
&&
.MARINE...Updated 835 PM PDT Thursday, 2 June 2022...
Southerly winds and seas will gradually build Friday afternoon and
evening as a stronger front approaches. Advisory level conditions
are expected to develop across the coastal waters late Friday
afternoon through Friday night. The front will then move through
Saturday into Saturday night bringing gale force southerly winds and
very steep southwesterly seas across most of the coastal waters
area. Winds and seas are likely to subside Sunday into Monday.
~BTL/Miles
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 521 PM PDT Thu Jun 2 2022/
UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.
SHORT TERM...
Plenty of cumulus clouds, showers and thunderstorms are starting
to build up on the radar scope this afternoon. It seems most of
the convection has been firing just north of Lake and Klamath
Counties, although we would expect that to expand slightly over
the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. The chance of
storms farther to the west is pretty low around 15 percent. The
HRRR has been very stingy on developing convection west of the
Cascades, although some of the other convecting models are more
willing to initiate it. In any case, storms remain in the forecast
through the evening hours.
By later tonight into Friday morning, the forecast story becomes
muddled as a cold front begins to approach the Oregon coastline.
The upper level pattern remains with zonal flow with an upper
level well offshore the Pacific Northwest. Models seem willing to
paint some light rain along the coast in addition to locations
along the Umpqua Basin. Model soundings suggest pockets of
moisture along with dry pockets of air, so precipitation will
likely fall as a light rain or drizzle tonight into tomorrow
morning. In addition, some the model output statistics hint at fog
along the southern Oregon coastline. Conditions should remain
drier inland Friday, although models increase the precipitation
forecast into Friday evening. This seems to be from the leading
edge of the atmospheric river along with a quick moving shortwave.
The lower probability of rain continues into Saturday morning,
although the general weather conditions really begin to change
into later Saturday. This storm system for early June is fairly
anomalous with an atmospheric river and integrated water vapor
transport around 500 hitting the coast. Again, values this high
are usually what we see during the winter months. In addition, the
surface low bottoms out around 1000 mb right off the Oregon
coastline Saturday evening. Again, these values are in the 99.5th
percentile this time of year and is fairly unusual late May into
early June. The overall weather hazards remain minimal as the rain
and precipitation will be welcome by most, although the impacts
to public will be elevated because of the number out outdoor
events and recreation planned for this time of year on Saturday
evening. Overall, we`re forecasting around 0.15 inches up to 0.3
inches of rain for most locations west of the Cascades Saturday
evening. Along the coast, those values will be higher with lower
totals east of the Cascades.
A cold front just offshore Saturday night will approach the coast
into Sunday morning. Once the front moves onshore and an upper
level wave rotates through, we`ll see the precipitation on the
downtrend with some clearing skies into Sunday afternoon and
evening. In general, Sunday will be a transition day before we
warm and dry out in the extended forecast.
-Smith
LONG TERM...Monday June 6th through Thursday June 9th...After
some lingering showers over the Cascades and Umpqua Basin Monday
morning, a A warming and drying trend is expected next week.
Significant warming is forecast on Tuesday, with afternoon
temperatures trending 10 degrees warmer than Monday. This puts
Tuesday high temperatures about 5 degrees above normal for this
time of year. Confidence has increased for further warming later
in the week, potentially reaching the highest temperatures so far
this warm season. Latest data suggests temperature will peak
Thursday or Friday, and Medford might experience the first
90-degree day of the year. Though confidence is high on warming
and drying through most of the week, there is a large variance in
possible conditions for next weekend, so we`re not sure how long
the warm and dry trend will continue.
AVIATION...03/00Z TAFs... Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occuring for areas along, near, and east of the
Cascades this afternoon and evening, as well as from Mt. Shasta
northeast towards KLMT. Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph are possible in
and near any thunderstorm. KLMT has been affected by these gusts and
further gusts remain possible for at least the next hour while
convection is ongoing. These storms have also been producing fairly
consistent in-cloud lightning strikes, with some ground strikes
having been observed.
Elsewhere, IFR ceilings from marine stratus exist offshore of the
Coos County coast, with VFR elsewhere. Late this afternoon MVFR to
IFR is likely to return to all coastal areas as the stratus
redevelops and pushes inland, with partial terrain obscurations in
the coastal mountains.
A front is expected to bring widespread showers along and near the
coast, and in the Umpqua Basin Friday morning, spreading inland by
Friday afternoon. MVFR may begin to affect areas east of the coast
range over the interior west side, especially in the Roseburg and
Umpqua Basin area, around 12Z, through the morning. There is a small
chance MVFR could develop across the Medford area, but chances of
that currently appear to be only about 30% at KMFR. ~Miles
MARINE...Updated 250 PM PDT Thursday, 2 June 2022...
A weak cold front will move across the coastal waters this evening
and then onshore early Friday with light to moderate southerly winds
and generally low, mixed period seas from the southwest. Southerly
winds and seas will then gradually build Friday afternoon and
evening as a stronger frontal system approaches. Advisory level
conditions are expected to develop across the coastal waters late
Friday afternoon through Friday night. The frontal system will then
move through Saturday into Saturday night bringing gale force
southerly winds and very steep southwesterly seas across most of the
coastal waters area, in the 10 to 30NM area fanning out north-
northwestward from the vicinity of Buoy 15. Winds and seas are then
likely to subside Sunday into Monday with a period of impacting
northerlies likely south of Cape Blanco Monday afternoon and
evening. ~BTL
Keene
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
Pacific Coastal Waters...
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Friday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for
PZZ350-356.
Hazardous Seas Warning from noon to 11 PM PDT Saturday for
PZZ350-356.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Friday to noon PDT Saturday for
PZZ370-376.
Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for
PZZ370-376.
$$
SBN/SBN/SBN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
843 PM PDT Thu Jun 2 2022
.SYNOPSIS...A broad trough of low pressure over the West will
continue to bring gusty onshore winds, cooler conditions, and
periods of high clouds to the region. Low clouds will also
continue along the coast and bays. A stronger disturbance will
bring a chance of rain for late Saturday into Sunday, with the
brunt of the rainfall focusing on North Bay.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 08:43 PM PDT Thursday...Filtered sunset as
high clouds passing overhead this evening. Low clouds continue to
lurk off the coast.
The advertised cooling trend materialized early this afternoon as
maximum temperatures topped out in the 70s and 80s inland and 60s
and 70s coast. The biggest cooldown occurred around SF Bay and
through the Delta due to strong onshore flow. Temperatures dropped
5-10 degrees from Wednesday`s maximum temperatures. The onshore
flow also resulted in some breezy to gusty conditions. KSFO peaked
with a gust to 37 kts or 43 mph earlier this evening. A handful of
other spots around the region saw gusts 20-40 mph.
For tonight: The low clouds lurking off the coast are slowly
spreading toward the coast. This trend is forecast to continue
tonight with a marine layer reformation. This fits with the latest
HRRR and HREF models, which indicate low clouds along the coast
by Friday morning.
To round out the workweek - continued onshore flow and cooling is
expected. Temperatures will drop another 3-8 degrees roughly,
which will put maximum temperatures below seasonal average.
The short term weather item of note is a late season rain chance
for NorCal. Early look at the 00Z NAM shows the slowing trend
continuing and keeping the bulk of the steadier rain to the north.
Won`t make any changes at this time. The night shift will have a
full set of model data to fine tune the forecast. For more
details see below...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...As of 01:50 PM PDT Thursday...Water vapor imagery
continues to show a broad trough of low pressure along the West
Coast, with several disturbances moving through this trough. One
of which is poised off the Central California, and will move
inland across Northern California later today and tonight. While
no rain is expect with this first disturbance, cooler conditions
will prevail, with temperatures already running 5 to 10 degrees
cooler across the inland valleys today. Gusty onshore winds will
continue, with locally breezy through the favored passes and gaps.
Although it is hard to see through the high clouds, pilots are
reporting low clouds spilling over the Golden Gate today. While it
looks like the low clouds are somewhat patchy below the high
clouds, believe the low clouds will reform and quickly move inland
this evening across a good portion of the Bay Area and Monterey
Bay by late tonight. Another weak disturbance will then move
across the region tomorrow, bringing more high clouds and
additional cooling. The greatest cooling will once again be felt
across the inland areas, falling 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
The main concern of this forecast period continues to be with the
disturbance for the weekend. The models continue to show a decent
moisture tap with this system, with a PW plume of nearly 1.5
inches pointed at Northern California late Saturday and into
Sunday. However, the forcing is minimal to marginal at best, and
falls apart as this system moves south across the region. This is
the reason why there is high confidence that North Bay will get a
decent wetting rain, with models consistently showing between 0.1
and 0.33 inches in North Bay and between 0.5 and 0.7 inches in the
coastal mountains. However, amounts quickly taper off as one
moves southward, with just a few hundredths possible across the
Bay Area proper and trace amounts for the Monterey Bay. At this
point in time, think most areas will see some light rain or
sprinkles. Probably enough to wet the roads, but not enough to
water your plants. Models continue to trend slower with the onset
of rain as well, focusing the timing more late Saturday afternoon
or evening on North Bay, and then slowly moving south through
Sunday.
Drier and warmer conditions will develop for early next week and
persist through midweek, as weak ridging rebuilds over the
region. Palmer
&&
.AVIATION...As of 7:16 PM PDT Thursday...For the 00Z TAFs. It`s
VFR over land while visible satellite shows stratus clouds are
approaching the inner coastal waters. The marine layer is 1,000
feet deep per Bodega Bay profiler data and current 00z Oakland
sounding. Pressure gradients are 3.7 mb SFO-SAC and 2.4 mb ACV-
SFO. Onshore winds predominating, stratus will continue to move
toward the coast and then inland tonight and Friday morning. A
dry mid level trough moving eastward across the Bay Area early
this evening will continue cool air advection aloft resulting in
a weakening and lifting of the lower level temperature inversion,
i.e. a deepening of the marine layer as the stratus moves inland
tonight and Friday morning. The NAM/WRF-ARW/ECMWF forecast very
light to light measurable coastal drizzle developing late tonight
and Friday morning; light drizzle not currently in the 00z tafs,
but will monitor and amend as necessary through the evening and
overnight. Otherwise stratus clouds lifting and mixing out Friday
morning since cool air advection will lift and erode the marine
layer temperature inversion by late morning or afternoon.
Vicinity of KSFO...Gusty west wind to 35 to 40 knots until 06z
this evening, an airport weather warning for wind was issued. VFR
then stratus reaching the coast moves inland mid to late evening
and overnight, increasing chances of IFR at least initially. lower
level cool air advection on a west wind will steadily lift and
erode the lower level temperature inversion, thus the ceiling may
tend to lift to MVFR late tonight or Friday morning. VFR by late
morning Friday. Otherwise west wind continuing through the forecast
period.
KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay...West to northwest winds will usher stratus clouds
/IFR-MVFR/ inland tonight and Friday morning. Not in 00z tafs,
however patchy light coastal drizzle is a possibility tonight and
Friday morning. Cool air advection aloft will lift and weaken
lower level temperature inversion thus deepening and then fully
mixing out the marine layer mainly Friday.
&&
.MARINE...as of 6:08 PM PDT Thursday...A long period southwest
swell is passing over the waters. Generally light wind and seas
north of Pigeon Point with much stronger northerly winds south of
Point Pinos tonight. Wind and seas will subside by Friday ahead of
an approaching front that will cause winds to turn southerly over
the weekend as the cold front slides south across the region.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 9 PM
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM
GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM/Palmer
AVIATION: Canepa
MARINE: RW
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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
900 PM PDT Thu Jun 2 2022
Updated aviation discussion and headlines
.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening.
The marine layer will deepen through Friday morning, leading to
cooler temperatures and a few showers Friday afternoon. An
unseasonably strong and moist frontal system will bring wet
conditions throughout the forecast area this weekend and breezy
conditions to the immediate coast. The overall storm track slides
north next week with temperatures returning above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night: Deeper convection
underway at this hour, especially over the North Oregon Cascades
where multiple thunderstorms have developed. A couple of these cells
have generated radar indicated modest sized hail, but feel the main
threat will continue to be heavy rainfall. Storm motions are 10 kts
or less and PW values 0.85-0.90". There is still the strong dry
layer just above 850 mb, however, rain is able to penetrate through
it as gages are starting to record rain around Mt Hood.
20Z HRRR continues to focus convection nearer the north Cascade
crest and Hood River Valley into this evening, however, the last few
runs are bringing a thunderstorm threat westward to encompass the
Portland Metro and points northward along I-5 past Kelso/Longview.
Did include that threat through this evening. The storm environment
is not all that different west of the Cascades so even if we don`t
see thunderstorms in the Metro, heavy showers could still pose
problems if one remains fairly stationary. Today`s convection still
is fairly dependent on on solar heating. Thus, expect most action
will dissipate closer to sunset, but did keep a mention until nearly
midnight on the chance an incoming shortwave is able to maintain
action for a couple more hours.
The better broad scale lift will push east of the Cascades for
Friday as the parent upper low center moves eastward to near 47N,
135W tonight. Will still have some lingering showers overnight and
into Friday morning. Solar Heating Friday will then trigger another
afternoon of showery weather but under continued elevated PW values
generally 0.75-0.90". These showers will have a little more motion to
them, but could still drop a quick quarter inch of rain, especially
during the heat of the afternoon. Somewhat warmer air aloft will
arrive near that time plus the better large scale dynamics are
further east so any thunderstorm threat should stay well east of the
Cascade Crest.
The next shortwave will rotate toward the PacNW Friday evening and
the precip mode will transition from showers back toward stratiform.
At this point, the 12Z model runs have diverged from their stronger
agreement just 24 hours ago. The 12Z GFS (with support from the
Canadian) is wanting to split the flow to an extent sending the
initial Friday night shortwave a little north of our area but still
bringing a decent rain. It then sends Saturday afternoon/night`s
wave a little further south towards SW Oregon/NorCal but still
clipping much of our area south of the Columbia River. Regardless,
QPF amounts retain a solid rainfall with 0.50-1.50" amounts for the
36 hour period to include trailing showers Sunday. The ECMWF is
keeping a more concise system aimed for our CWA with amounts nearer
0.75-2.00" over the same period. 12Z WPC guidance came in quite a
bit higher pushing 2.50 to 3.00 inches across parts of the Cascades.
Ended up taking a 50/50 blend of the WPC Guidance and the NBM 4.1
(and its heavier lean on the EC) blend which still increased amount
higher from the previous shift, but nowhere as extreme as the WPC
amounts. In any case, anybody planning on hanging out in downtown
Portland Saturday evening should expect moderately heavy rainfall.
In other details, temperatures will remain mild as the region will
stay largely under the influence of the deep southwesterly flow as
the upper remains nearly stationary off the Strait of Juan deFuca
through Sunday night. As such, snow levels stay fairly high as well
with only the high peaks seeing any snow threat. Additionally, a 996
mb surface low will strengthen and slide north along 130W Saturday
afternoon and evening. This would mainly keep the stronger winds
over the waters as the pressure gradients never really become south
to north along the coast. Might get some gusts up to 35 mph along
the exposed headlands, but that`s the extend of the land wind
threat. Sunday might be a little better as low pressure moves inland
across B.C. but still hard pressed to get gusts much outside of 20-
25 mph. Also on Sunday, the air mass will somewhat destabilize again
as the final shortwave in this system will cool temps aloft while
the surface will maintain it`s warmer nature and solar heating. 17Z
NBM thunderstorm probs bring chances for much of the region with 25-
35% probs covering the eastern reaches of the CWA, including the
Portland Metro and areas east of I-5. /JBonk
.Long-term...Monday through Thursday: Medium range models
come back in general agreement for the long term forecast although
details still in question as expected. Shortwave high pressure
builds northward as the upper low retreats northwest. Will see some
lingering showers Monday, but Tuesday looks like it will be dry
through sunset. Wednesday, another lobe of the previous upper low
shortwave will swing toward the coast but models generally weaken
the associated front. Still may see some light showers across the
region but suspect the trend will be to remove those over the next
few days. Thursday has another shortwave ridge building across the
area for dry weather. This then transitions to longwave ridging
pushing north again Thursday night and into Friday. Our area will be
staying on the warm side of the jet and easily keep temperatures
above normal. /JBonk
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFs: As the sun sets convection diminishes aside
from a few short lived cells currently making their way across
the Portland metro. Convection should cease across the CWA by 06Z
with VFR and light southerly winds inland for much of the night.
Cooling of the boundary layer will drop coastal sites into MVFR
criteria between 06-09Z Friday, later for terminals along the
northern coasts. A Pacific frontal system will send a cold front east
towards the coast overnight which will ramp up southerly winds
along the coast and lift ceilings into MVFR criteria by Friday
morning. Southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front will likely
push some marine stratus into the Willamette Valley during the
overnight hours between 13-17Z. Southerly winds will persist
throughout the forecast period with light rain after 12Z.
For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go
online to: https://weather.gov/zse
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominantly VFR conditions will prevail
through much of the forecast period. Southwesterly flow in the mid
levels will likely bring some marine stratus inland which could
bring the PDX terminal into MVFR criteria for a couple hours
starting around 13Z. A return to VFR after 17Z Friday.
-BrianaMuhlestein
&&
.MARINE...Southerly wind increase tonight 10-20 kt tonight
as a weak front clips the waters. A stronger front will likely
impact the waters over the weekend as a low pressure system swings
through on Saturday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are probable
later Friday into Saturday morning while southerly winds increase
through the day. The potential for low end gales remains, and will
issue a Gale Watch for the outer zones Saturday afternoon through
evening. Still some uncertainty in the forecast models are closer
in agreement with the strength and track of the low. Winds should
gradually decrease through Sunday.
A westerly swell will gradually build to around 5 to 7 ft through
Friday. Seas then build further on Saturday, driven primarily by
the southerly wind waves, to around 10 feet by Saturday evening.
Seas then gradually subside into early next week. /DH/mh
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 11 AM PDT Saturday for
coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out
60 nm.
Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from
10 to 60 nm.
&&
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
725 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the region this evening with rain
and thunderstorms. Dry weather with temperatures near normal are
expected Friday through Sunday. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms returns on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Thursday...
Clearing Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through this
evening as a front passes through the area. Rain is expected to
end across southeastern West Virginia by 9 PM but not until
around midnight for areas along the Blue Ridge. Somewhere
around 4 AM, showers will exit the piedmont.
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...
The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remain for this
afternoon. Already watching an ongoing cluster of storms over
southeast West Virginia that continue to move eastward.
Additional thunderstorm development is expected further east as
the afternoon progresses.
Strong surface heating is well underway with temperatures into
the 80s and lower 90s across most of Virginia, West Virginia,
and North Carolina. RAP analysis already indicating 1000 - 1500
J/kg MLCAPE along with increasing effective shear across the
entire region. Although the strongest shear/instability overlap
remains further north into portions of northern Virginia and
southern Pennsylvania, strong destabilization and modest shear
locally will still support clusters of storms which will have
the ability to produce strong damaging wind gusts and locally
large hail.
The main surface front is still to the west over eastern
portions of Kentucky and Ohio this afternoon. This front will
push through later tonight with potentially another broken line
of storms along it. Shower/thunderstorm activity begins to
dwindle by midnight as drier air from the northwest begins to
filter into the region. Still some uncertainty on the amount of
lingering cloud cover tonight, but with recent rainfall and
cooling temperatures, could definitely see some valley fog
Friday morning. Much drier and cooler airmass for Friday with
partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 70s/low 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM EDT Thursday...
..Expect near normal temperatures and very little chance of
precipitation this weekend...
Thursday`s cold front will be just south of the region on Friday.
The vast majority of the region is expected not to have any
rain. However, some lingering showers will be possible across
portions of the mountains and foothills of northwest North
Carolina during Friday morning.
High pressure will build over the area during the weekend
bringing seasonable temperatures back to the area. As the
center of the high starts to shift east of the region, there may
be enough of a return of moisture into the area to generate
isolated showers over the North Carolina mountains Sunday
afternoon, and farther north into parts of southwest Virginia
and southeast West Virginia Sunday night.
Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Thursday...
Mild and unsettled weather expected through the period.
During this portion of the forecast, flow aloft will be almost
zonal each day. A series of shortwave troughs will ride along
the flow, into and across our region. This type of pattern will
keep the region on the mild side with more than simply diurnal-
type showers and storms. The challenge though is the variability
in the guidance in depicting the timing of each of these
features. While not represented equally among the guidance,
there is some clustering around the Tuesday afternoon and then
Wednesday night as the times currently with the best chances for
the crossing of one of the shortwave troughs.
The resultant forecast will be one that offers daily chances of
showers and storms with peaks in those probabilities around the
times mentioned above. With no push of colder air into the area,
each day should be above normal for this time of year.
Confidence in the above scenario is moderate.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 723 PM EDT Thursday...
A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region and Carolinas
tonight and move east of the area Friday morning. Light showers
and a few thunderstorms are possible this evening. Through the
early morning hours, patchy fog is likely to develop if skies
become clear. KLWB is the only TAF site with strong confidence
to see fog below MVFR.
With dry air coming in behind the front and the upslope
weakening on Friday morning, the sky will begin to clear between
6-10 AM. All TAF locations eventually go VFR mid-Friday
morning.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
Clouds will remain over North Carolina and southern Virginia
but ceilings will be VFR through Friday evening. Conditions are
expected to remain VFR through the upcoming weekend.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the
mountains Sunday afternoon.
On Monday thunderstorms with MVFR conditions will be scattered
over the mountains and isolated in the foothills and piedmont.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...DS/SH
LONG TERM...DS/SH
AVIATION...RCS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
758 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 741 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022
Latest satellite and radar indicates showers and thunderstorms
across the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico. The HRRR is
initializing well with this activity. It, and several other CAMs
indicate this activity eventually moving into Southeast New Mexico
later this evening and organizing into a east to southeast moving
MCS during the morning hours, eventually reaching our western
counties around 4 AM or 5 AM. This activity is then forecast to
move across the Big Country/Concho Valley before beginning to
weaken between 8 AM and 10 AM. There remains some uncertainty on
the exact evolution of this MCS and exactly how far east this
convection will make it, before dissipating, but I went ahead and
increased PoPs across the Big Country and Concho Valley, and
brought some slight chance PoPs farther south and east.
The main threats with this activity look to be locally heavy
rainfall and strong gusty winds. Although severe weather is not
anticipated at this time, a few winds gusts over 50 mph and small
hail are possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022
The front has stalled along the I-10 corridor today. A few showers
and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early this
evening across the southern part of our area, where the
airmass is unstable with MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg.
For tonight, a disturbance aloft is progged to move around the
northern periphery of an upper high (centered over Mexico), and
track east-southeast into our area Friday morning. Some of the CAMs
indicate the development of showers and thunderstorms in West Texas
after Midnight, with the convection moving east-southeast into the
Big Country and northern half of the Concho Valley late tonight and
early Friday morning. Carrying the highest PoPs (40-50 percent) in
the Big Country, and in the Big Country and northern Heartland areas
Friday morning. The main overall hazard will be lightning, but gusty
winds will be possible along the leading edge of this convection.
Small hail will also be possible with the stronger storms, along
with locally heavy rainfall. Overnight lows will be in the mid to
upper 60s.
Uncertain with some of the details at this time on how the scenario
will unfold on Friday. Anticipate that the morning convection will
dissipate, but the models differ on prospects for subsequent
redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. With
subsidence expected in the wake of the departing disturbance,
leaning at this time toward a scenario of only isolated development
near leftover outflow boundaries. Considerable morning cloud cover
will be followed by decreasing cloudiness during the afternoon.
Highs are expected to range from the lower 80s in the northern
Big Country, to lower 90s in our southern counties.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022
No pleasant way to say this, but record breaking heat is once
again expected across West Central Texas for at least Sunday-
Tuesday. Upper level ridge builds into place and pushes 850MB
temperatures up above 30C, and even above 33C across portions of
the Concho Valley. Surface temperatures soaring above 105 likely
across almost all of the area (exception may be the far northern
Big Country). Records at Abilene and San Angelo expected to fall,
both for afternoon highs and perhaps for warm morning lows as
well. Current forecast and records include:
Sun-5th Mon-6th Tue-7th
Abilene 106/1948 104/1948 103/1896
Forecast: 102 105 107
San Angelo 106/2010 105/2018 107/1994
Forecast: 106 108 108
Some of the longer range models do suggest that a cold front and
a few showers or storms are possible by the end of next week or
into the weekend, but that would require the upper ridge to break
down on schedule and these ridges are often slow to do that during
the summer. Will hold a dry forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022
Between about 09Z and 15Z, scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA are
expected to move from west to east across much of the forecast
area, bringing TEMPO IFR/LIFR VIS/CIGs in heavy rain, along with
briefly gusty/erratic winds. Storms/showers should become more
isolated and gradually dissipate between 15Z and 18Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through about 09Z, then mainly
MVFR conditions are expected to develop 09Z to 15Z across most of
the forecast area. 15-18Z, expect conditions to gradually become
widespread VFR, with VFR conditions then continuing through 00Z
Sat. Winds will be mainly out of the NE to E at 5-8 KT through 10Z
before becoming SE at 6-10 KT thereafter.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 66 84 67 95 / 50 50 20 10
San Angelo 67 89 69 99 / 40 30 10 10
Junction 68 91 69 99 / 10 30 10 10
Brownwood 66 85 67 95 / 20 50 10 10
Sweetwater 65 85 68 98 / 60 50 20 10
Ozona 69 92 70 96 / 10 20 10 10
Brady 68 89 68 96 / 20 30 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SJH