Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/02/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
633 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
.AVIATION...
A range of IFR to VFR conditions are expected for KAMA/KDHT and
VFR conditions are expected at KGUY throughout the 00Z TAF
period. Current 00Z observations show near MVFR cigs for DHT and
IFR cigs for KAMA. MVFR to IFR cigs at time swill continue through
the TAF period for KDHT/KAMA with VFR cigs, at times near MVFR
levels for KGUY. Winds will be out of the north and 5-15 kts
veering to southeasterly at 5-15 kts past 18Z.
Meccariello
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 308 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022/
SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow.
Bottom Line Up Top: Much cooler conditions are in place behind a
cold front today through tomorrow. Low status clouds and even some
drizzle and fog are possible, especially in the southern Texas
Panhandle. Chances for thunderstorms increase again after 7 PM
through the overnight, favoring the south central and southeast
Texas Panhandle. Some large hail can`t be ruled out with a few
storms across the southern Texas Panhandle through late this
evening. A few lingering showers are possible tomorrow morning,
but a lull in precip can be expected for most of the day tomorrow
as temperatures stay in the 60s for most.
Details: An upper level shortwave trough axis was positioned from
central SD down into north central New Mexico as of 1830z. This
feature is expected to cross the Panhandle region between 00z and
06z which should help provide some LSA (even though the best PVA
and jet streak are offset north of the Panhandle region). At the
surface, breezy northeast winds along with widespread stratus was
observed. The cold front was positioned from near Hobbs, NM to
Crowell, TX. Low to mid 50s dew points were common behind the
front, with low 60s along the front extending out in southeast NM.
The near saturated conditions have promoted periods of reduced
visibility near KAMA due to drizzle and light fog. Widespread
overcast conditions were present across all of the combined
Panhandles. There are a few showers left on the radar as of 1830z,
but most of the activity will be very isolated through about 7 PM
this evening when a surge of 800mb to 600mb moisture advects into
the area. It seems like this boost in theta-E centered around
700mb may be related to convection expected to form in southeast
NM and the Permian Basin region later this afternoon. The increase
in moisture also helps boost elevated CAPE values, with some
models (HRRR, RAP, NAM) suggesting 1000 - 1500 elevated uncapped
CAPE values after 00z.
The HRRR seemed to handle yesterday`s convection (including the
overnight elevated convection) well. This same model has been
producing a broken line of elevated storms from near Dimmitt to
Canyon to Groom around 02z to 03z. Other models Show similar
trends in slightly different areas. This first round of convection
may have enough lift, CAPE, and effective shear to produce some
large hail (quarter to ping pong ball) and heavy rain (PWATs over
90th percentile). The effective shear values of 30 to 40 knots
could support some transient supercell modes which should grow
upscale into multicell clusters. This activity could linger to
around 07z in the southern Texas Panhandle, with additional sub-
severe elevated convection through about 12z with rain chances
expanding into the northern Texas Panhandle. Areas which received
significant rain amounts last night have a higher risk of seeing
some local flooding issues tonight if impacted by the higher rain
rates.
Activity should wane after 12z as the upper level wave shifts
east. Yet the area will remain in a post-frontal cool and moist
environment through the day tomorrow. Any additional convection
should hold off until tomorrow evening as a period of synoptic
scale subsidence takes place in wake of the upper shortwave.
Ward
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Wednesday.
For Thursday night, the next minor upper level shortwave trof is
progged to track into eastern NM and eastern CO Thursday afternoon,
and should assist in the development of showers and thunderstorms
over the higher terrain of eastern NM and eastern CO late in the
afternoon, then move eastward into the forecast area Thursday
night. Short range models are in reasonable agreement and were
accepted. Chance pops offered by the NBM look plausible at this
time and were incorporated into the grids.
Lingering pops Friday morning as the aforementioned upper level
shortwave trof slides east of the region. A near repeat performance
is then expected to occur late Friday afternoon and night as another
minor upper level shortwave trof moves through the area from
eastern CO and eastern NM. A round of showers and thunderstorms
should develop over eastern NM and eastern CO Friday afternoon,
then head eastward into the OK and TX Panhandles late Friday
afternoon and night. Some storms late Friday afternoon and evening
may become severe across mainly western and central sections of
the area, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.
Models are in general agreement and the NBM pops capture this
scenario and were utilized.
Dry weather and warmer temperatures are forecast to return to the
area Saturday through Monday as a flat ridge of high pressure
prevails. Pops return to the OK Panhandle Monday night, the OK and
northern Texas Panhandles Tuesday night, and most of the area
Wednesday night as the upper level flow pattern becomes a bit more
favorable again for minor perturbations to traverse the region and
assist in the development of some showers and thunderstorms
during the above mentioned time periods. Medium range models are
in general agreement and were accepted, as were NBM pops and
temperatures.
02
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
29/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
955 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers along with isolated thunderstorms will continue at
times tonight. Drier weather returns for the first part of Thursday,
but more showers are expected late Thursday into the first part of
Friday. Beautiful weather with comfortable humidity returns for the
weekend and into Monday. The threat for some showers may return by
next Tuesday and/or Wednesday, but a washout is not expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
955 PM Update:
Re-shaped PoP/Wx a bit to match current radar and expected
trends but overall no major change to the forecast philosphy for
tonight.
Regional radar shows steady light to moderate rain spreading
into the I-91 corridor and the Berkshires. There are some
leftover rain showers near the Albany metro area and further
west along I-90 in central NY. Stronger convection and
associated heavier rain rates is noted over NE NJ and towards
the NYC area. Activity seems to be closely following the WNWly
upwind propagation/Corfidi vector; thus expect continued SEly
motion with rain overspreading most areas along and SE of the
Mass Pike through 2 AM. Steadiest rains should be confined to
this general corridor, which leaves NE MA in something of a
relative minimum in PoP. However latest HRRR and the 18z NAM-
3km seem to show showery activity developing in northern New
England brushing northeast MA toward the pre-dawn hrs. Still
can`t rule out a rumble or two of thunder but showers should
predominate.
Previous Discussion...
This trend will continue this evening and overnight as a plume
of rich moisture works it`s way from The Great Lakes
southeastward along the upper ridge into southern New England.
Latest SPC mesoanalysis illustrates PWAT values in the 1.5 to
1.75 inch range. As this air mass works it`s way over southern
New England this evening we`ll see some isolated areas of heavy
rainfall with scattered areas of light to moderate showers.
There remains some elevated instability in place, thus won`t be
surprised to hear a few rumbles of thunder overnight as well.
Aside from the rainfall, expecting a quiet night with lows
falling into the mid 50s with light winds out of the
east/northeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow
Linger showers come to an end early tomorrow morning. Not expecting
much clearing as an onshore flow will sustain moisture in the low-
levels. Generally expecting a mostly cloudy day, especially for the
eastern half of the region. May be some clearing and a few breaks of
sunshine in western MA/CT. Cool onshore flow will keep the eastern
areas in the mid to upper 60s tomorrow with warmer temps in the 70s
across the interior. May see some showers begin to move into the
western areas ahead of an approaching short-wave by late
afternoon/early evening.
Tomorrow Night
Upper-level shortwave traverses over southern New England tomorrow
night bringing widespread showers and perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder as well. Instability will be weak, thus not expecting any
embedded thunderstorms to become severe. There are some hints of
moderate synoptic forcing with this system that may support locally
heavier rainfall, but generally expecting around 0.25 inches of new
rainfall by Friday morning with the highest amounts focused to the
west. Low temps in the mid 50s again with light easterly winds
becoming more northeasterly.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Lingering showers at least into the first half of Fri with cool
temps across northeast MA and seasonable in the CT River Valley
* Beautiful/Dry weather this weekend into Mon with cool nights and
mild days along with comfortable humidity levels
* Next chance for showers sometime next Tue and/or Wed
* No significant heat through at least the middle of next week
Details...
Friday...
Wave of low pressure tracking near the south coast will result in
some lingering showers Friday morning...particularly across eastern
MA. We may even have a few light showers linger Fri afternoon as
surface flow turns NNE. Given lingering low clouds at least across
eastern and especially northeast MA it will be a cool day. Highs
will probably on top out between 60 and 65 across northeast MA.
Further inland there is more uncertainty on Friday/s high
temperatures. Global models break up clouds and allow highs to
recover into the 70s, but would not be surprised if this ends up
being more of a slow process especially east of the Worcester Hills.
We will have a better idea once we are able to see more of the high
resolution models; but greatest potential for highs well into the
70s will be the Lower CT River Valley.
This Weekend into Monday...
A beautiful stretch of weather is in the cards this weekend into
Monday. A couple of closed upper level lows north of the U.S. border
will result in fast zonal flow aloft across our region. This will
bring dry weather with very pleasant temps & comfortable humidity
levels this weekend into Monday. High should mainly be in the 70s
perhaps making a run at 80 in a few spots. Cool nights are expected
too with lows mainly in the 40s to the middle 50s.
The only fly in the ointment would be Saturday; when a
dynamic shortwave tracks across northern New England bringing them
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Current feeling is the
dynamics/forcing should remain north of our region; so maintained a
dry forecast. But can not rule out the low risk for a few brief
showers sometime Sat if the guidance were to trend further south
with this shortwave.
Tuesday and Wednesday...
Approaching shortwave trough will allow dewpoints/low level moisture
to increase a bit; but nothing too extreme for this time of year. We
also will see the risk for a round or two of showers; sometime Tue
and/or Wed but not expecting a washout. Temperatures should be
fairly seasonable.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z update...
Tonight: Moderate confidence.
VFR to MVFR conditions this evening gradually deteriorate to
IFR and even localized LIFR overnight. Scattered SHRA along with
a few embedded t-storms possible too. Lingering Easterly winds
across northeast MA should turn to turn to a light southerly
direction overnight which is currently being observed elsewhere.
Tomorrow: Moderate confidence.
IFR ceilings may improve to MVFR across portions of the
interior, but IFR to localized IFR probably prevail towards the
coast. Winds becoming E at 5 to 10 knots.
Tomorrow Night Moderate confidence:
MVFR/IFR ceilings with SHRA. Light east/southeasterly winds.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight:
2-4 foot seas with modest south/southwesterly winds around 10 knots.
Scattered showers over the coastal waters with embedded thunder
possible.
Tomorrow:
Showers early taper off by late morning. Winds shift to the east
around 10 knots. Seas generally 2 to 3 feet.
Tomorrow Night:
Widespread showers over the coastal waters tomorrow night. 10 knot
winds out of the east become more northeasterly by Friday morning.
Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Saturday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/RM
NEAR TERM...Frank/Loconto/RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Loconto/RM
MARINE...Frank/Loconto/RM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
644 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
An upper pv anomaly is being stretched eastward across northern
Kansas and southern Nebraska as a mid level shortwave trough
shifts east into the Missouri valley this evening. The vast
majority of the HREF composite reflectivity ensembles clear out
the residual showers from the forecast area by the end of the
afternoon, while a couple of typically over-convecting members
would linger that activity a bit into the evening hours,
especially across the Stafford-Pawnee- Kiowa-Pratt county region.
HRRR GOES infrared brightness temp fields show clearing sky in the
increasingly subsident environment into the late afternoon and
evening most every where but the Oklahoma - Kansas line. Light
winds will settle across our area overnight while temperatures
plummet to the coolest of this week. A crisp night in the 40s area
wide is likely with light winds The very warmest members of the
NBM ensemble only forecast temps in the very low 50s by 12z
Thursday, while an unlikely NBM fifth percentile bottoming out
locally in the upper 30s exists, and probably confined to a few
low lying and sheltered areas.
Thursday is going to be a great day for the outdoors. With surface
high pressure expanding to the east of the immediate area, the winds
will be light and variable, while models (tossing out bias corrected
grids) really agree across the board on a thermally homogeneous
airmass in the mid 70s by mid afternoon. Thursday night, while not
as cold as the previous night, will still bring chilly 50s for
overnight temperatures as well as slight/low chances for
thunderstorms that may develop over the higher terrain of CO and
spread eastward into the overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
By Friday evening and again on Saturday as well, the opportunity for
something surface based to develop over the area improves in the
afternoons and evening hours as better surface moisture return as
temperatures ramp up toward the 60 degree mark again nearly
areawide. Still ti sis outside the convective outlooks higher better
skill, however the NBM carries slight to chance pops both days. THE
GFS EC and Canadian models all present some semblance of a east -
west oriented front dropping southward toward Kansas - toward
this more moisture rich air over the central Plains Sunday night
through Tuesday. With an approaching jet form the west showing
it`s hand for an increased opportunity for organized severe
storms. As far as temperatures through this 4-7 day period the
true hot air never really returns, with lack of strong downslope
and a more cloudy regime, the highs are limited to the 70s/80s
(warmest day Saturday in the upper 80s).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Lingering
stratus deck over the far southern zones will continue to erode away
over the next few hours, and all terminals will have clear skies
during the overnight period. Winds will be light and variable
through late Thursday morning when a slight increase out of the
southeast is expected, and this will coincide with a return of a
stratus layer mainly near LBL. However, cigs should still remain
within VFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 46 75 53 / 80 10 0 10
GCK 63 46 74 52 / 40 10 0 20
EHA 60 47 71 52 / 50 20 10 40
LBL 60 47 73 52 / 70 10 10 30
HYS 63 46 76 51 / 80 10 0 10
P28 62 50 74 55 / 100 20 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Springer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
809 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
Scattered showers will linger across central Illinois tonight,
with a few evening thunderstorms near and south of I-70. After
that, a couple days of dry weather are on tap for the region.
While temperatures will mainly reach the mid 70s on Thursday, a
slow warming trend is expected into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
Over the past hour, effective frontal boundary was evident on KVWX
radar, sagging south of the ILX and currently near KVWX where it
is serving as the focus for stronger storms just outside our
forecast area. The threat for storms is expected to remain to our
south through the rest of the evening and have lowered PoPs
according while SPC has pulled the D1 marginal risk outside of the
forecast area. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is noted on water
vapor imagery over MN/IA with an associated arcing band of showers
extending south and southwest into portions of Missouri. Some of
these high-based, light showers will move across central Illinois
late this evening and overnight, but do not anticipate any notable
impacts from these light showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
Early afternoon visible satellite imagery shows an MCV, from
the morning Missouri storm complex, was centered between St. Louis
and Vandalia. Skies over southeast Illinois have been partly to
mostly sunny this afternoon, and mesoanalysis shows that area with
around 1500 J/kg of CAPE, though greater bulk shear values are a
little further south of the MCV. So far, convective initiation has
been more along the lingering surface boundary extending along
the Illinois/Kentucky border into southern Indiana. HRRR has been
in and out on the convective potential with the MCV, with the 18Z
run suggesting more of a chance associated with the cold front
itself early this evening. Will continue with the higher chance
PoP`s near/south of I-70 into this evening, and thunder chances
will be confined to this general region in the new forecast.
Further north, a period of dry weather is expected through early
evening, but some light showers are still possible in the period
centered around midnight, extending toward sunrise in eastern
Illinois.
Looking ahead to Thursday, any lingering showers over the
southeast CWA should exit by mid morning, with skies clearing from
the northwest. Some diurnal cumulus will likely keep it from
being completely clear during the afternoon, but there should be a
decent amount of sunshine. Temperatures should reach the mid 70s
in much of the area during the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
West-northwest upper level flow expected as we close the week,
focused just to our north. Rain chances Friday night and Saturday
will be tied to a weaker wave in this flow, with the main synoptic
models suggesting some MCS type activity ahead of the wave staying
to our northwest. The wave itself is progged to move across
Illinois Saturday night, though surface moisture inflow off the
Gulf appears to be disrupted by potential tropical activity
across Florida. Thus, the higher rain chances will mainly be near
and west of I-55 later this weekend.
A large upper low, currently just northeast of Lake Winnipeg, is
expected to settle toward the northern tip of Lake Superior by
Monday morning. This will flatten the steering flow and bring more
frequent periods of rain activity during the first part of the new
week. Blended guidance hasn`t locked on yet to the latest trends
by the GFS/ECMWF on a more sustained southward shove in the cold
front passing through early Monday, with these models featuring a
more sustained dry period Monday night and Tuesday. There is some
agreement with them on a period of rain Wednesday.
This pattern is expected to keep temperatures below normal during
the first part of the new week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
Northwest winds will prevail through the period, picking back up
above 10 kt Thursday late morning and afternoon. A few showers are
possible overnight, especially at DEC/CMI, otherwise dry weather
is expected along with VFR conditions.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Deubelbeiss
SYNOPSIS...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1112 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1111 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2022
The high pressure over the eastern Tennesee valley has kept dry
mid-level air over the eastern tier of the CWA. This has kept that
area mostly cloudless through the evening hours with the
exception of light cirrus. The valleys have cooled off quicker
than originally expected as a result. Additionally, the CAM`s have
produce more slender results in terms of POPs along and ahead of
the frontal boundary. While the expectation remains that precip
and associated cloud cover will move in towards the latter
overnight/early morning hours, the drier trend in the guidance has
favored a larger ridge/valley split in the far eastern
counties. Thus, the min temperature has been lowered slightly in
the eastern valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 440 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2022
Conditions are currently quiet across eastern Kentucky with
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with the exception of the
higher terrain in the south which sits in the mid 70s. A widespread
cumulus field resides across the area. A few showers have tried to
develop over the area as heights fall slightly over the area but
have quickly dissipated as they encounter very dry air in the mid
levels. A surface high sits to the southwest of the area while a
sluggish cold front sits draped through southeast Michigan, central
Indiana, and into southern Illinois and Missouri.
The cold front will continue to inch closer to the Commonwealth this
evening and overnight, eventually bringing showers and storms to the
area. CAMs show precipitation developing well ahead of the cold
front tonight. The best chance for showers and storms will be along
the cold front which will move through the area Thursday afternoon
and evening. The SPC has placed all of eastern Kentucky in a
marginal risk with the main threat being strong gusty winds.
Environmental parameters between the NAMNEST and HRRR differ a decent
amount with the NAMNEST seemingly overdoing the shear and
instability. The NAMNEST shows greater shear overall around 30 knots
for in the south and near 45 knots in the northern counties while
the HRRR is closer to the 25-35 knot range for the entire area.
SBCAPE in the NAMNEST is around 1500-2000 J/kg with some areas
closer to 2500 while the HRRR is a bit leaner with 1000-1500 J/kg
and a few area of closer to 2000. DCAPE from the NAMNEST generally
ranges from 850-1000 J/kg which would support a better chance for
strong damaging winds while the HRRR is closer to 700-850 J/kg which
is marginal for the wind threat.
Temperatures will drop into the mid 60s overnight with fog
developing along the river valleys. Thursday highs will be noticeably
cooler as cloud cover increases ahead of the cold front with upper
70s to low 80s expected. Thursday night lows will drop into the low
to mid 50s behind the cold front and fog will likely develop along
the river valleys again.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2022
Guidance/solutions appear to be in good general agreement with large
scale synoptic features. Aloft the flow is best described as zonal
with several embedded disturbances tracking west to east during the
latter portions of the extended, with the core westerlies perhaps a
bit further south than usual for this time of year across the CONUS.
Given the time of the year this suggests a seasonably warm and
unsettled pattern for the latter half of the period, with a daily
chance of rain running slightly higher than the climatological 20-30
mainly afternoon and early evening average PoP.
Sensible weather features a great start to the extended, with high
pressure ensuring dry, sunny, and comfortable weather. Temperatures
through the first three days of the extended (Fri-Sun) will be in
the 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the 50s for pleasant and
comfortable afternoons. Dew points creep back up to around 60 by
Sunday afternoon, for a slightly muggy feel to the air and the
possibility of an isolated shower or thundershower. Thereafter (Mon-
Wed) moisture returns for a more summer like, muggy feel to our
weather. Disturbances passing through the Ohio Valley will combine
with a surface frontal zone that will enter and linger across the
region, keeping a daily threat of rain in the forecast with mainly
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms added in for good
measure.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2022
VFR conditions with mainly clear skies prevailed at the start of
the period, and will last well into the night. Fog will affect
many valleys late tonight, especially in southeast KY, but should
avoid TAF sites. An area of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a
cold front will move southeast and what is left of it should
begin to make it into the JKL forecast area from the northwest
after about 06Z. The showers/thunderstorms will bring localized
sub-VFR conditions. They will be on the decline in the morning,
with a relative lull forecast from late morning to early
afternoon. However, during this time MVFR ceilings are likely to
become more prevalent. The ceilings should then lift to VFR levels
early in the afternoon, but a new round of showers and
thunderstorms will also develop and bring localized sub-VFR
conditions once again.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LUEHRS
SHORT TERM...BATZ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1050 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1050 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022
Looking into the overnight hours, a weak upper level disturbance
moving from MO/AR into KY/TN, an approaching cold front, and a
slight uptick in the low level jet will help to keep the threat of
gusty thunderstorms with us overnight. Instability will be steadily
decreasing and storms may become slightly elevated, but there will
still be enough support for thunder. DCAPE will also decrease,
further lessening the chances of severe-level winds. However, some
enhanced gusts will still be possible with the stronger storms even
if the highest velocities do stay just off the surface.
Mesoscale models are still advertising thunderstorms overnight, but
have generally backed off on the coverage. Although thunderstorms
will be possible anywhere in the region, HREF members favor north
central Kentucky and southern Indiana. This is in line with current
regional radars that show the most robust convection moving
northeastward through the counties along the Ohio River, with less
activity to the south.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022
...Possible Strong to Severe Thunderstorm Wind Gusts through
Tomorrow...
Synopsis...Upper-level low over south-central Canada will be pushing
a shortwave trough from the Midwest to the Northeast within the next
24 hours as an attendant cold front, currently draped over central
Illinois and Missouri, will slowly sag south-southeast towards the
lower Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a surface boundary will be actively
initiating convection this afternoon and evening ahead of the
frontal passage with the warm sector primed with a rich theta-e
airmass.
Rest of the afternoon...Substantial solar heating and dewpoints in
the high 60s to low 70s are supporting surface-based showers along
differential heating boundaries in the northwestern counties of the
CWA. Dry air entrainment and weak capping have been effective in
limiting updraft growth into the mixed phase zone as indicated by a
lack of lightning and reflectivity above the -10 degC layer. Farther
west the story is very different thanks to an instability axis and
greater mesoscale forcing which are aiding in persistent robust
convection. Expect the 600-mb inversion to keep weakening as the mid-
level air moistens up, so storm coverage will probably expand going
into the evening over southern Indiana and west-central Kentucky
with pulse-like characteristics.
Tonight...Current radar imagery depicts a healthy environment for
convective growth with the main surface boundary in western Kentucky
as cells are closely space among each other. Forecast soundings
still show an inverted-V signature due to a near-surface dry
airmass. This eventually might help the upscaling process as cells
and multicell clusters congeal into locally bowing segments or an
MCS. Therefore, the main risk associated with the most robust
convection will be damaging wind, followed by small hailstones,
lightning and moderate to heavy rainfall rates. Note that SPC made
adjustments to the risk categories over our area as we are now under
a Slight risk for virtually all the CWA. The aforementioned
statement can be justified under two possible scenarios. The first
one could be an slightly faster motion of the main convective line
so that it can tap into the better MUCAPE in storage over the
northern tier of counties, resulting the DCAPE values around 1,000
j/kg. If the above-mentioned scenario happens, strongest storms will
weaken after 03z and the greatest concern will be towards the north.
The second one is the lowest confidence option and involves upscale
growth of the storms upstream, as some CAM guidance has been
suggesting. In the latter case, the damaging wind risk could extend
towards the south and later in time (more like in line with the
Slight risk category). It is worth mentioning that some guidance,
especially HRRR and NAM, show an augmented wind surge during the
overnight hours that can be tied to an ongoing storm complex through
low to mid level warming. Finally, WPC has a marginal risk of flash
flooding, but given area-wide FFG and HREF low probability of 1-hr
rain rates grater than 1 inch, the flooding threat will be localized
and mainly in urban areas where poor drainage and limited run off
conditions exist combined with training storms.
Tomorrow...Still Marginal risk of damaging winds in the afternoon
for the Lake Cumberland area. Forecast reasoning has not changed
much during the last updates, so seems appropriate to maintain
coverage and timing of greatest risk. Although there might be
isolated showers and storms north of the highlighted severe risk
area, anticipate a quiet afternoon with a broken layer of low
clouds and highs in the mid to high 70s.
.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022
Thursday Night - Saturday Night...
We`ll be post-frontal as we end the work week and head into the
weekend. Expansive surface high pressure will control the area into
the weekend, along with unremarkable zonal flow aloft. This will
bring a return to dry conditions for a few days along with cooler
temperatures. Highs on Friday and Saturday are only expected to top
out in the upper 70s and low 80s, which is pretty near normal for
this time of year. Look for some cool overnight`s as well with min
temps in the 50s.
Sunday...
Sunday still has the potential to be dry, however much will depend
on the eventual evolution of a potential tropical disturbance in the
western Atlantic. The ECMWF solution would suggest a dry and warm
Sunday thanks to some downstream blocking by a stronger and farther
NW western Atlantic storm. Meanwhile, other models suggest a much
weaker and farther SE solution with that storm that would allow for
a faster arrival of moisture and a weak disturbance into our area.
Will continue the small chance pops to account of the uncertainty,
along with slightly warmer highs back into the mid 80s.
Sunday Night - Wednesday...
Overall, confidence is low in timing of individual features going
into the early and middle part of next week. However, confidence is
quite high in a more unsettled stretch of weather. We`ll maintain
zonal flow aloft with several embedded features likely working
through our region in the progressive flow. Right now the best
timing for showers and storms looks to be later Monday into Monday
night, and again on Wednesday. Will maintain solid chance pops in
the forecast for this period, with highs generally in the low to mid
80s each day.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022
MAIN IMPACTS: Thunderstorms tonight, low ceilings tomorrow morning
DISCUSSION: The best chance for showers/storms in the first few
hours of the TAF period will be just north of the TAF sites.
Thunderstorm chances will then increase from west to east by mid
evening and into the overnight hours ahead of an approaching cold
front and a small upper level disturbance over Missouri early this
evening heading to the east. The stronger storms will be capable of
very heavy downpours and locally gusty winds.
Tomorrow the cold front will push through, ushering in low ceilings
and light northwest breezes. At this time it appears that ceilings
should lift back into VFR in the afternoon.
CONFIDENCE: High in the likelihood of thunderstorms but lower in
exact timing of the greatest threat of strong storms. High in the
likelihood of low ceilings Thursday morning, medium with regard to
if they will be just above or just below 2k`.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...13
Short Term...ALL
Long Term...BJS
Aviation...13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
855 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
It was another warm day across middle TN with BNA reaching 93
degrees and CKV reaching 90s. Thanks to a cold front that will
meander through the CWA tomorrow it will not be as hot the next
couple of days...closer to normal for this time of year. The risk
of a cold front this time of year is the threat for strong to
severe storms that comes along with it. The good news it the
slight risk for this evening and overnight has been removed
leaving a marginal for everywhere other than the western plateau.
The radar scope has been relatively quiet all evening...but the
HRRR has some storms developing after midnight. Blended the HRRR
into the overnight PoPs. There could possible be a strong storm or
two overnight but confidence is very low. SPC still has a
marginal risk for just about the whole CWA minus Stewart for
tomorrow. Still not overly excited about this either. It looks
like if any strong to severe storms develop it will be in the
afternoon/late afternoon hours and east of I-65.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
Isolated showers and storms may continue to pop up over Middle
Tennessee this afternoon and evening, but these won`t be out of
the ordinary. Later this evening a widespread area of storms will
approach from the west. We may still have enough CAPE in place by
the time it reaches our northwest counties to sustain
thunderstorms, but severe potential will be dampened by the low
lapse rates and bulk shear values that exist over our area. There
are a couple of CAMS that suggest a slight rise in shear over the
northwest just as storms enter that area, but they`ll be battling
rapidly decreasing instability at that point. We`ll still keep an
eye out for some strong storms...maybe an isolated severe storm,
but the threat isn`t great. Since instability falls off overnight,
any threat of strong or severe storms after midnight should be
quite small. After daybreak tomorrow CAPE values will rapidly
increase, but once again, we`ll be missing wind shear to help
organize updrafts. We won`t be short on moisture though. PWATs
will be around 1.5 to 2 inches throughout the day, so we could see
some heavy downpours in several areas. Strong storms with gusty
winds will be possible, but widespread severe not expected. Storms
will taper from west to east in the afternoon and evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
Noticeably drier air will move in behind Thursday`s frontal
passage and provide pleasant conditions for Friday and at least
the first part of Saturday. Temperatures will start to warm on
Saturday afternoon as winds turn out of the east and then the
south, but nearby surface high pressure will hold precip off
until at least Sunday afternoon. Kept precip chances running
around 30 to 40 percent from Monday through midweek next week as
broad troughing over the eastern U.S. brings a few shortwaves over
the Tennessee Valley. There doesn`t look to be much relief from
the heat and humidity next week, so we`ll be waiting until at
least the second part of the week to see any frontal passage with
cooler and drier conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
Two shots at storms over the next 24 hours, though neither is all
that impressive, with weak frontal passage after the second. The
first is prior to sunrise tomorrow morning, and the second in the
early to mid-afternoon. Some MVFR cigs possible in the afternoon
for short periods of time.
Winds will shift to the northwest with the fropa tomorrow,
starting after sunrise tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 69 83 60 81 / 20 80 10 0
Clarksville 67 79 56 79 / 40 50 0 0
Crossville 65 78 56 75 / 20 80 30 0
Columbia 68 82 58 80 / 20 80 20 0
Cookeville 67 80 58 76 / 20 90 20 0
Jamestown 65 78 55 75 / 20 90 30 0
Lawrenceburg 68 82 59 79 / 20 90 20 0
Murfreesboro 68 83 58 82 / 20 90 20 0
Waverly 67 79 58 79 / 30 60 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......12
SHORT TERM...Whitehead
LONG TERM....Whitehead
AVIATION.....Unger
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
645 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
The cold front currently stretched across northwest Oklahoma will
continue to push across our area increasing chances for more surface
based convection through this evening. NAM & RAP guidance still
projecting fairly strong surface based instability with CAPE values
of 3000-4000 J/kg across our south and near marginal deep-layer
shear. Current cloudcover may somewhat limit the instability across
much of southeast Oklahoma where the strongest surface moisture of
lower 70s dewpoints are in place. However, cloudiness is eroding
across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas where diurnal
heating is increased as also observed on the Oklahoma Mesonet Solar
radiation. As a result, could see those strong CAPE values become
more representative to model guidance across our southwest. For
now, current pulse convection may start to intensify becoming more
severe especially across our southwest. A marginal risk for severe
storms will remain across our entire south through this evening,
with large damaging hail and damaging wind gust as the main severe
hazards. DCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg could certainly result
with strong downdrafts with 60-80 mph wind gusts. Flash flooding
will be an addition hazard, especially across southwest Oklahoma
where previous heavy rainfalls had occurred. However, an area of
high PW values will maintain a flooding threat across central and
southeast Oklahoma as well should heavy convection occur. After the
surface boundary comes through, could see additional but more
elevated storms across much of our area as an upper shortwave
disturbance comes through our westerlies. Severe storms may linger
overnight near the Red River where the surface boundary is likely to
be in place, although could see some additional strong to marginally
severe storms across the rest of our area with the more isolated
elevated storm. All storm POPs are out of our forecast by the start
of Thursday afternoon.
A cooling trend starts Thursday afternoon on the back side of the
cold front a north winds bring in cooler than seasonably
temperatures. Thursday afternoon MaxT`s are forecast to be mild and
perhaps 10 degrees cooler than average for early June.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
A shortwave trough and weak mid-level warm advection may be enough
for late evening and overnight convection to develop across the
Texas Panhandle late Thursday night. Some of this precipitation may
develop far enough east for widely scattered showers and a few
storms across western Oklahoma/western north Texas by early Friday
morning. A little unsure how far east this will develop during
the morning and early afternoon on Friday.
Better moisture return Friday afternoon, should result in scattered
thunderstorm development across eastern New Mexico and far
western Texas. With a modest low level jet and another shortwave
through, this convection may organize and move across parts of
western Oklahoma and western north Texas overnight Friday into
Saturday morning, perhaps farther east.
Convection Saturday afternoon into Sunday/Monday will become more
complicated as rather warm 7h temperatures will overspread
western and central Oklahoma. A few model indicate that storms may
organize again Saturday afternoon/evening and move across the
eastern half of Oklahoma.
It`s possible that another round of storms may impact mainly
northern Oklahoma late Sunday into early Monday where mid-level
temperatures will be slightly cooler.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
Scattered TSRA will continue in a east-west oriented band across
western and central Oklahoma this evening. An eventual shift
southward is expected toward and after 04Z as deeper flow shifts
more to northwesterly. IFR/MVFR will be the rule first half of the
forecast across northern into central Oklahoma before drier air
deepens and shifts lower cigs southward. Transition from MVFR to
VFR expected tomorrow morning 12-18Z with VFR and dry conditions
expected most of tomorrow. Winds will remain light and generally
north to northeast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 58 74 60 75 / 70 20 10 20
Hobart OK 56 74 61 76 / 60 20 20 30
Wichita Falls TX 61 77 64 80 / 70 30 20 20
Gage OK 52 72 58 74 / 30 10 20 30
Ponca City OK 54 74 56 76 / 40 0 0 10
Durant OK 64 78 65 79 / 70 60 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for OKZ014>030-033>040-044.
TX...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ083-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
546 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 542 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
A mesoscale convective system over western and central Missouri
early this morning has altered the flow pattern. The 12z models,
including the cams, did not really latch onto the mesoscale
system. As a result, most of the models are missing the low level
boundaries and qpf forecasts. Many of the mesoscale models such as
the hrrr generate a mass of convection over south central and se
Missouri over the next several hours. However, these models seem
to have a very poor handle on the location of the residual outflow
boundary that was along the Wabash and lower Ohio River at 20z.
The forecast for early tonight will contain a more broad brush
chance pop for the forecast area, as opposed to the categorical
pops indicated by the high-res models. The air mass has become
quite unstable along and east of the outflow boundary, including
southwest IN and much of western KY. A few storms may briefly
contain hail or strong winds ahead of the boundary. Otherwise,
expect a gradual decrease in storm intensity later this evening
and overnight as the air mass cools. Some fog is possible where
skies clear out, especially where heavy rain occurs today.
The remnants of the boundary will be overtaken by the synoptic
scale cold front overnight, which will then bring a well-defined
surge of drier and cooler air. Any lingering showers or storms
will end on Thursday morning over most areas, except over western
Kentucky where activity could linger into the afternoon. Highs
will be mainly in the upper 70s.
Thursday night through Friday night will feature clear skies and
light north to northeast winds as high pressure passes by. Lows
will be in the 50s, with highs near 80.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
The Quad State will be under zonal flow aloft through the extended
portion of the forecast. A series of disturbances is expected to
bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms to all or a portion of the
region Sunday through next Wednesday. At this time, better chances
of showers and storms seem to be associated with disturbances on
Monday and next Wednesday.
At the surface, we will start out under high pressure Saturday with
southeast winds and pleasant dewpoints in the 50s. South winds will
develop Sunday and continue through Monday. As Monday`s disturbance
passes, a weak frontal boundary may reach the Quad State, and the
12Z CMC in particular shows convection training eastward along that
boundary Tuesday. This boundary should shift back north Wednesday
allowing south winds to return areawide.
The bottom line is that timing disturbances in zonal flow regimes is
a low confidence proposition. For now we and the NBM have daily
chances of convection Sunday through next Wednesday and it could
very well rain somewhere each day. In general, instability will be
modest and shear will be weak, but could increase to some degree
with the passage of each disturbance. Therefore, a stray strong to
severe storm cannot be ruled out any afternoon, but organized severe
weather is unlikely. Moisture will only be near climatological
norms, so widespread heavy rainfall/flooding concerns should be
relatively low. Of course, if the boundary lays down across the
region Tuesday, training could lead to more of a heavy rainfall and
flooding threat.
Temperatures should be within a few degrees of normal through the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 542 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022
A cold front will work its way across the terminals tonight.
A chance of restricted cigs/vsbys will accompany the front with
showers/storms possible. These may linger into tmrw morning east
(KEVV-KOWB), then chances diminish as the cooler and more stable
airmass behind the front slowly works across the region. Bases
should lift to low VFR by/during the afternoon.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
512 PM PDT Wed Jun 1 2022
.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...Currently high-end VFR ceilings (greater
than 7 kft) area wide, except some low-end VFR bases across
central OR mountains and the Blues where there has been clumping
and deepening cu over the last two hours per latest day cloud
phase satellite imagery. Initial concern is possible isolated
mountain showers this evening/early tonight over the WA cascades
and the central OR mountains-southern Blues. However, confidence
is high (>80%) that terminals outside these areas shouldn`t see
any precip. Meantime, light breezes with occasional gusts 15-20
mph exist across the Basin to central OR with winds expected to
lessen 6 kts or less by late evening.
Tomorrow afternoon there will be increasing potential for
isolated- scattered showers and thunderstorms. The main area of
concern is across central OR and the central OR mountains to the
northern Blues and vicinity foothills. Current thinking is the
best chances for initial activity begin near and after 2 PM PDT
with activity/storms moving northeastward around 15 kts or so. The
combination of lower confidence (less than 30%), storm coverage
(isolated- scattered), and anticipated evolution (generally more
east of TAF terminals) preclude a mention of thunderstorms at this
time for tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM PDT Wed Jun 1 2022/
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Showers are filling
up on WSR-88Ds across western WA, and scattered showers have
developed over eastern Washington from Ephrata to Pullman. Our
forecast area remains under a weak shortwave ridge with no
precipitation at this time, but the ridge is shifting eastward and
the showers will develop along the east side of the Cascades in
the next couple of hours. The HRRR has backed off considerably on
the reflectivity over the southern WA Cascades, and Mesoscale
Analysis on SPC has very weak CAPE so have removed the
thunderstorms from the forecast. Will keep isolated showers and
thunderstorms over the northern Blues and Wallowa county but it
may be a stray thunderstorm or two.
The thunderstorm threat is looking more promising with each model
run, and it now appears that storms will be strong with heavy
downpours. SPC has placed portions of northeast Oregon in a
marginal risk for severe weather. The 18Z NAM is disconcerting
advertising a fairly strong shortwave embedded in a southwest flow
aloft over northeast OR. This is also an area of H7 diffluence. A
Hydrologic Outlook was issued to discuss the moderate to heavy
rain from Thursday through Sunday, but the next couple of shifts
may need to analyze whether flash flooding is a concern. The
steering flow is not impressive--only about 10-15 knots--and the
PWATS will be near 1.0 inch. Although there is a marginal risk for
severe weather, the bulk shear is around 30 knots from 0-6km which
would indicate that strong sustained updrafts will not be likely.
From Thursday night through Friday night, the forecast area will
remain under a fairly moist southwest flow aloft with continued
instability. A deep low will remain off the Gulf of Alaska and
will send a series of waves across Washington and Oregon. The
potential for thunder on the NBM is around 40-60 pct on Friday for
eastern mountains/valleys, but the fly in the ointment for
anything more than scattered thunderstorms will be the dense cloud
cover during the first part of the day. Will keep a chance of
thunderstorms but this may be lowered to slight chance. Wister/85
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...An active period of
weather will continue through at least this weekend as an upper
low off the BC coast brings periods of rain showers and
thunderstorms. Drier and warmer conditions will develop after
Monday and into Wednesday as guidance depicts upper level ridging
building into the region.
Ensemble and deterministic guidance in good agreement through
Sunday that a series of shortwave impulses will round an upper
low off the coast of BC and swing across the PacNW each day.
The main uncertainty through this period will result from the
timing of the shortwave impulses across the region, especially
for Sunday. Current deterministic guidance shows the shortwave
passage timed for the afternoon, which would result in the best
chances for not only rain showers, but also support a greater risk
of thunderstorms mainly across mountain areas as it stands.
However, looking at ensemble guidance shows more of this timing
uncertainty, as individual members amongst the GFS and ECMWF
differ on an order of 12 hours for the shortwave passage.
Otherwise, guidance imparts moderate to high confidence in
renewed chance of rain showers Saturday and Sunday for the area.
The other story with these showers will be the risk for some areas
seeing another round of moderate to heavy rain, which may result
in additional rises in area rivers and streams, especially in
northeast OR, far southeast WA, and the east slopes of the WA
Cascades. Though this far out precipitation amounts are still in
flux, ensemble guidance and individual members do consistently
depict higher rain amounts in the mountains, while the ECMWF EFI
is also signaling the potential for higher rain amounts with the
area under 0.7 to 0.9 percentiles. At this time, will need to wait
a couple more model runs for confidence to rise in location and
potential for heavy rain amounts. Otherwise, enough instability
will be present both Saturday and Sunday for isolated
thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening, but as
mentioned above, timing of shortwave impulses could help or hinder
thunderstorm development.
Confidence continues to be at least moderate in the progression of
the upper air pattern through the middle of next week. A ridge of
high pressure is anticipated to build into the region late
Monday, decreasing chance of rain showers area wide. The main
uncertainty, however, stems from the strength of the ridge, as
some solutions favor a weak and flat ridge over the region. This
would prevent strong or moderate warm air advection across the
area while also allowing several shortwaves in the flow to bring
renewed chances of weak to moderate rain showers to mainly the
mountain zones. Regardless, expect a drying and warming trend to
result through the middle of next week. Lawhorn/82
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 55 80 55 71 / 10 20 60 60
ALW 57 80 58 73 / 10 20 50 60
PSC 59 83 60 78 / 10 20 20 40
YKM 55 81 54 74 / 10 30 30 50
HRI 58 83 56 76 / 10 20 30 50
ELN 53 76 53 69 / 20 30 40 70
RDM 50 80 48 68 / 10 50 40 40
LGD 50 73 50 68 / 10 30 70 80
GCD 52 75 49 69 / 10 40 60 70
DLS 57 82 58 70 / 10 40 30 50
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...85
LONG TERM....82
AVIATION...80