Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/02/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
633 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 .AVIATION... A range of IFR to VFR conditions are expected for KAMA/KDHT and VFR conditions are expected at KGUY throughout the 00Z TAF period. Current 00Z observations show near MVFR cigs for DHT and IFR cigs for KAMA. MVFR to IFR cigs at time swill continue through the TAF period for KDHT/KAMA with VFR cigs, at times near MVFR levels for KGUY. Winds will be out of the north and 5-15 kts veering to southeasterly at 5-15 kts past 18Z. Meccariello && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 308 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022/ SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow. Bottom Line Up Top: Much cooler conditions are in place behind a cold front today through tomorrow. Low status clouds and even some drizzle and fog are possible, especially in the southern Texas Panhandle. Chances for thunderstorms increase again after 7 PM through the overnight, favoring the south central and southeast Texas Panhandle. Some large hail can`t be ruled out with a few storms across the southern Texas Panhandle through late this evening. A few lingering showers are possible tomorrow morning, but a lull in precip can be expected for most of the day tomorrow as temperatures stay in the 60s for most. Details: An upper level shortwave trough axis was positioned from central SD down into north central New Mexico as of 1830z. This feature is expected to cross the Panhandle region between 00z and 06z which should help provide some LSA (even though the best PVA and jet streak are offset north of the Panhandle region). At the surface, breezy northeast winds along with widespread stratus was observed. The cold front was positioned from near Hobbs, NM to Crowell, TX. Low to mid 50s dew points were common behind the front, with low 60s along the front extending out in southeast NM. The near saturated conditions have promoted periods of reduced visibility near KAMA due to drizzle and light fog. Widespread overcast conditions were present across all of the combined Panhandles. There are a few showers left on the radar as of 1830z, but most of the activity will be very isolated through about 7 PM this evening when a surge of 800mb to 600mb moisture advects into the area. It seems like this boost in theta-E centered around 700mb may be related to convection expected to form in southeast NM and the Permian Basin region later this afternoon. The increase in moisture also helps boost elevated CAPE values, with some models (HRRR, RAP, NAM) suggesting 1000 - 1500 elevated uncapped CAPE values after 00z. The HRRR seemed to handle yesterday`s convection (including the overnight elevated convection) well. This same model has been producing a broken line of elevated storms from near Dimmitt to Canyon to Groom around 02z to 03z. Other models Show similar trends in slightly different areas. This first round of convection may have enough lift, CAPE, and effective shear to produce some large hail (quarter to ping pong ball) and heavy rain (PWATs over 90th percentile). The effective shear values of 30 to 40 knots could support some transient supercell modes which should grow upscale into multicell clusters. This activity could linger to around 07z in the southern Texas Panhandle, with additional sub- severe elevated convection through about 12z with rain chances expanding into the northern Texas Panhandle. Areas which received significant rain amounts last night have a higher risk of seeing some local flooding issues tonight if impacted by the higher rain rates. Activity should wane after 12z as the upper level wave shifts east. Yet the area will remain in a post-frontal cool and moist environment through the day tomorrow. Any additional convection should hold off until tomorrow evening as a period of synoptic scale subsidence takes place in wake of the upper shortwave. Ward LONG TERM...Thursday night through Wednesday. For Thursday night, the next minor upper level shortwave trof is progged to track into eastern NM and eastern CO Thursday afternoon, and should assist in the development of showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of eastern NM and eastern CO late in the afternoon, then move eastward into the forecast area Thursday night. Short range models are in reasonable agreement and were accepted. Chance pops offered by the NBM look plausible at this time and were incorporated into the grids. Lingering pops Friday morning as the aforementioned upper level shortwave trof slides east of the region. A near repeat performance is then expected to occur late Friday afternoon and night as another minor upper level shortwave trof moves through the area from eastern CO and eastern NM. A round of showers and thunderstorms should develop over eastern NM and eastern CO Friday afternoon, then head eastward into the OK and TX Panhandles late Friday afternoon and night. Some storms late Friday afternoon and evening may become severe across mainly western and central sections of the area, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. Models are in general agreement and the NBM pops capture this scenario and were utilized. Dry weather and warmer temperatures are forecast to return to the area Saturday through Monday as a flat ridge of high pressure prevails. Pops return to the OK Panhandle Monday night, the OK and northern Texas Panhandles Tuesday night, and most of the area Wednesday night as the upper level flow pattern becomes a bit more favorable again for minor perturbations to traverse the region and assist in the development of some showers and thunderstorms during the above mentioned time periods. Medium range models are in general agreement and were accepted, as were NBM pops and temperatures. 02 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 29/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
955 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers along with isolated thunderstorms will continue at times tonight. Drier weather returns for the first part of Thursday, but more showers are expected late Thursday into the first part of Friday. Beautiful weather with comfortable humidity returns for the weekend and into Monday. The threat for some showers may return by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday, but a washout is not expected. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 955 PM Update: Re-shaped PoP/Wx a bit to match current radar and expected trends but overall no major change to the forecast philosphy for tonight. Regional radar shows steady light to moderate rain spreading into the I-91 corridor and the Berkshires. There are some leftover rain showers near the Albany metro area and further west along I-90 in central NY. Stronger convection and associated heavier rain rates is noted over NE NJ and towards the NYC area. Activity seems to be closely following the WNWly upwind propagation/Corfidi vector; thus expect continued SEly motion with rain overspreading most areas along and SE of the Mass Pike through 2 AM. Steadiest rains should be confined to this general corridor, which leaves NE MA in something of a relative minimum in PoP. However latest HRRR and the 18z NAM- 3km seem to show showery activity developing in northern New England brushing northeast MA toward the pre-dawn hrs. Still can`t rule out a rumble or two of thunder but showers should predominate. Previous Discussion... This trend will continue this evening and overnight as a plume of rich moisture works it`s way from The Great Lakes southeastward along the upper ridge into southern New England. Latest SPC mesoanalysis illustrates PWAT values in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range. As this air mass works it`s way over southern New England this evening we`ll see some isolated areas of heavy rainfall with scattered areas of light to moderate showers. There remains some elevated instability in place, thus won`t be surprised to hear a few rumbles of thunder overnight as well. Aside from the rainfall, expecting a quiet night with lows falling into the mid 50s with light winds out of the east/northeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Tomorrow Linger showers come to an end early tomorrow morning. Not expecting much clearing as an onshore flow will sustain moisture in the low- levels. Generally expecting a mostly cloudy day, especially for the eastern half of the region. May be some clearing and a few breaks of sunshine in western MA/CT. Cool onshore flow will keep the eastern areas in the mid to upper 60s tomorrow with warmer temps in the 70s across the interior. May see some showers begin to move into the western areas ahead of an approaching short-wave by late afternoon/early evening. Tomorrow Night Upper-level shortwave traverses over southern New England tomorrow night bringing widespread showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder as well. Instability will be weak, thus not expecting any embedded thunderstorms to become severe. There are some hints of moderate synoptic forcing with this system that may support locally heavier rainfall, but generally expecting around 0.25 inches of new rainfall by Friday morning with the highest amounts focused to the west. Low temps in the mid 50s again with light easterly winds becoming more northeasterly. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights... * Lingering showers at least into the first half of Fri with cool temps across northeast MA and seasonable in the CT River Valley * Beautiful/Dry weather this weekend into Mon with cool nights and mild days along with comfortable humidity levels * Next chance for showers sometime next Tue and/or Wed * No significant heat through at least the middle of next week Details... Friday... Wave of low pressure tracking near the south coast will result in some lingering showers Friday morning...particularly across eastern MA. We may even have a few light showers linger Fri afternoon as surface flow turns NNE. Given lingering low clouds at least across eastern and especially northeast MA it will be a cool day. Highs will probably on top out between 60 and 65 across northeast MA. Further inland there is more uncertainty on Friday/s high temperatures. Global models break up clouds and allow highs to recover into the 70s, but would not be surprised if this ends up being more of a slow process especially east of the Worcester Hills. We will have a better idea once we are able to see more of the high resolution models; but greatest potential for highs well into the 70s will be the Lower CT River Valley. This Weekend into Monday... A beautiful stretch of weather is in the cards this weekend into Monday. A couple of closed upper level lows north of the U.S. border will result in fast zonal flow aloft across our region. This will bring dry weather with very pleasant temps & comfortable humidity levels this weekend into Monday. High should mainly be in the 70s perhaps making a run at 80 in a few spots. Cool nights are expected too with lows mainly in the 40s to the middle 50s. The only fly in the ointment would be Saturday; when a dynamic shortwave tracks across northern New England bringing them scattered showers and thunderstorms. Current feeling is the dynamics/forcing should remain north of our region; so maintained a dry forecast. But can not rule out the low risk for a few brief showers sometime Sat if the guidance were to trend further south with this shortwave. Tuesday and Wednesday... Approaching shortwave trough will allow dewpoints/low level moisture to increase a bit; but nothing too extreme for this time of year. We also will see the risk for a round or two of showers; sometime Tue and/or Wed but not expecting a washout. Temperatures should be fairly seasonable. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00Z update... Tonight: Moderate confidence. VFR to MVFR conditions this evening gradually deteriorate to IFR and even localized LIFR overnight. Scattered SHRA along with a few embedded t-storms possible too. Lingering Easterly winds across northeast MA should turn to turn to a light southerly direction overnight which is currently being observed elsewhere. Tomorrow: Moderate confidence. IFR ceilings may improve to MVFR across portions of the interior, but IFR to localized IFR probably prevail towards the coast. Winds becoming E at 5 to 10 knots. Tomorrow Night Moderate confidence: MVFR/IFR ceilings with SHRA. Light east/southeasterly winds. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight: 2-4 foot seas with modest south/southwesterly winds around 10 knots. Scattered showers over the coastal waters with embedded thunder possible. Tomorrow: Showers early taper off by late morning. Winds shift to the east around 10 knots. Seas generally 2 to 3 feet. Tomorrow Night: Widespread showers over the coastal waters tomorrow night. 10 knot winds out of the east become more northeasterly by Friday morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank/RM NEAR TERM...Frank/Loconto/RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...Frank AVIATION...Frank/Loconto/RM MARINE...Frank/Loconto/RM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
644 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 An upper pv anomaly is being stretched eastward across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska as a mid level shortwave trough shifts east into the Missouri valley this evening. The vast majority of the HREF composite reflectivity ensembles clear out the residual showers from the forecast area by the end of the afternoon, while a couple of typically over-convecting members would linger that activity a bit into the evening hours, especially across the Stafford-Pawnee- Kiowa-Pratt county region. HRRR GOES infrared brightness temp fields show clearing sky in the increasingly subsident environment into the late afternoon and evening most every where but the Oklahoma - Kansas line. Light winds will settle across our area overnight while temperatures plummet to the coolest of this week. A crisp night in the 40s area wide is likely with light winds The very warmest members of the NBM ensemble only forecast temps in the very low 50s by 12z Thursday, while an unlikely NBM fifth percentile bottoming out locally in the upper 30s exists, and probably confined to a few low lying and sheltered areas. Thursday is going to be a great day for the outdoors. With surface high pressure expanding to the east of the immediate area, the winds will be light and variable, while models (tossing out bias corrected grids) really agree across the board on a thermally homogeneous airmass in the mid 70s by mid afternoon. Thursday night, while not as cold as the previous night, will still bring chilly 50s for overnight temperatures as well as slight/low chances for thunderstorms that may develop over the higher terrain of CO and spread eastward into the overnight. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 By Friday evening and again on Saturday as well, the opportunity for something surface based to develop over the area improves in the afternoons and evening hours as better surface moisture return as temperatures ramp up toward the 60 degree mark again nearly areawide. Still ti sis outside the convective outlooks higher better skill, however the NBM carries slight to chance pops both days. THE GFS EC and Canadian models all present some semblance of a east - west oriented front dropping southward toward Kansas - toward this more moisture rich air over the central Plains Sunday night through Tuesday. With an approaching jet form the west showing it`s hand for an increased opportunity for organized severe storms. As far as temperatures through this 4-7 day period the true hot air never really returns, with lack of strong downslope and a more cloudy regime, the highs are limited to the 70s/80s (warmest day Saturday in the upper 80s). && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Lingering stratus deck over the far southern zones will continue to erode away over the next few hours, and all terminals will have clear skies during the overnight period. Winds will be light and variable through late Thursday morning when a slight increase out of the southeast is expected, and this will coincide with a return of a stratus layer mainly near LBL. However, cigs should still remain within VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 61 46 75 53 / 80 10 0 10 GCK 63 46 74 52 / 40 10 0 20 EHA 60 47 71 52 / 50 20 10 40 LBL 60 47 73 52 / 70 10 10 30 HYS 63 46 76 51 / 80 10 0 10 P28 62 50 74 55 / 100 20 0 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Springer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
809 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Scattered showers will linger across central Illinois tonight, with a few evening thunderstorms near and south of I-70. After that, a couple days of dry weather are on tap for the region. While temperatures will mainly reach the mid 70s on Thursday, a slow warming trend is expected into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Over the past hour, effective frontal boundary was evident on KVWX radar, sagging south of the ILX and currently near KVWX where it is serving as the focus for stronger storms just outside our forecast area. The threat for storms is expected to remain to our south through the rest of the evening and have lowered PoPs according while SPC has pulled the D1 marginal risk outside of the forecast area. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery over MN/IA with an associated arcing band of showers extending south and southwest into portions of Missouri. Some of these high-based, light showers will move across central Illinois late this evening and overnight, but do not anticipate any notable impacts from these light showers. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Early afternoon visible satellite imagery shows an MCV, from the morning Missouri storm complex, was centered between St. Louis and Vandalia. Skies over southeast Illinois have been partly to mostly sunny this afternoon, and mesoanalysis shows that area with around 1500 J/kg of CAPE, though greater bulk shear values are a little further south of the MCV. So far, convective initiation has been more along the lingering surface boundary extending along the Illinois/Kentucky border into southern Indiana. HRRR has been in and out on the convective potential with the MCV, with the 18Z run suggesting more of a chance associated with the cold front itself early this evening. Will continue with the higher chance PoP`s near/south of I-70 into this evening, and thunder chances will be confined to this general region in the new forecast. Further north, a period of dry weather is expected through early evening, but some light showers are still possible in the period centered around midnight, extending toward sunrise in eastern Illinois. Looking ahead to Thursday, any lingering showers over the southeast CWA should exit by mid morning, with skies clearing from the northwest. Some diurnal cumulus will likely keep it from being completely clear during the afternoon, but there should be a decent amount of sunshine. Temperatures should reach the mid 70s in much of the area during the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 West-northwest upper level flow expected as we close the week, focused just to our north. Rain chances Friday night and Saturday will be tied to a weaker wave in this flow, with the main synoptic models suggesting some MCS type activity ahead of the wave staying to our northwest. The wave itself is progged to move across Illinois Saturday night, though surface moisture inflow off the Gulf appears to be disrupted by potential tropical activity across Florida. Thus, the higher rain chances will mainly be near and west of I-55 later this weekend. A large upper low, currently just northeast of Lake Winnipeg, is expected to settle toward the northern tip of Lake Superior by Monday morning. This will flatten the steering flow and bring more frequent periods of rain activity during the first part of the new week. Blended guidance hasn`t locked on yet to the latest trends by the GFS/ECMWF on a more sustained southward shove in the cold front passing through early Monday, with these models featuring a more sustained dry period Monday night and Tuesday. There is some agreement with them on a period of rain Wednesday. This pattern is expected to keep temperatures below normal during the first part of the new week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Northwest winds will prevail through the period, picking back up above 10 kt Thursday late morning and afternoon. A few showers are possible overnight, especially at DEC/CMI, otherwise dry weather is expected along with VFR conditions. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Deubelbeiss SYNOPSIS...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Deubelbeiss
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1112 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1111 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2022 The high pressure over the eastern Tennesee valley has kept dry mid-level air over the eastern tier of the CWA. This has kept that area mostly cloudless through the evening hours with the exception of light cirrus. The valleys have cooled off quicker than originally expected as a result. Additionally, the CAM`s have produce more slender results in terms of POPs along and ahead of the frontal boundary. While the expectation remains that precip and associated cloud cover will move in towards the latter overnight/early morning hours, the drier trend in the guidance has favored a larger ridge/valley split in the far eastern counties. Thus, the min temperature has been lowered slightly in the eastern valleys. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 440 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2022 Conditions are currently quiet across eastern Kentucky with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with the exception of the higher terrain in the south which sits in the mid 70s. A widespread cumulus field resides across the area. A few showers have tried to develop over the area as heights fall slightly over the area but have quickly dissipated as they encounter very dry air in the mid levels. A surface high sits to the southwest of the area while a sluggish cold front sits draped through southeast Michigan, central Indiana, and into southern Illinois and Missouri. The cold front will continue to inch closer to the Commonwealth this evening and overnight, eventually bringing showers and storms to the area. CAMs show precipitation developing well ahead of the cold front tonight. The best chance for showers and storms will be along the cold front which will move through the area Thursday afternoon and evening. The SPC has placed all of eastern Kentucky in a marginal risk with the main threat being strong gusty winds. Environmental parameters between the NAMNEST and HRRR differ a decent amount with the NAMNEST seemingly overdoing the shear and instability. The NAMNEST shows greater shear overall around 30 knots for in the south and near 45 knots in the northern counties while the HRRR is closer to the 25-35 knot range for the entire area. SBCAPE in the NAMNEST is around 1500-2000 J/kg with some areas closer to 2500 while the HRRR is a bit leaner with 1000-1500 J/kg and a few area of closer to 2000. DCAPE from the NAMNEST generally ranges from 850-1000 J/kg which would support a better chance for strong damaging winds while the HRRR is closer to 700-850 J/kg which is marginal for the wind threat. Temperatures will drop into the mid 60s overnight with fog developing along the river valleys. Thursday highs will be noticeably cooler as cloud cover increases ahead of the cold front with upper 70s to low 80s expected. Thursday night lows will drop into the low to mid 50s behind the cold front and fog will likely develop along the river valleys again. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 357 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2022 Guidance/solutions appear to be in good general agreement with large scale synoptic features. Aloft the flow is best described as zonal with several embedded disturbances tracking west to east during the latter portions of the extended, with the core westerlies perhaps a bit further south than usual for this time of year across the CONUS. Given the time of the year this suggests a seasonably warm and unsettled pattern for the latter half of the period, with a daily chance of rain running slightly higher than the climatological 20-30 mainly afternoon and early evening average PoP. Sensible weather features a great start to the extended, with high pressure ensuring dry, sunny, and comfortable weather. Temperatures through the first three days of the extended (Fri-Sun) will be in the 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the 50s for pleasant and comfortable afternoons. Dew points creep back up to around 60 by Sunday afternoon, for a slightly muggy feel to the air and the possibility of an isolated shower or thundershower. Thereafter (Mon- Wed) moisture returns for a more summer like, muggy feel to our weather. Disturbances passing through the Ohio Valley will combine with a surface frontal zone that will enter and linger across the region, keeping a daily threat of rain in the forecast with mainly afternoon and early evening thunderstorms added in for good measure. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2022 VFR conditions with mainly clear skies prevailed at the start of the period, and will last well into the night. Fog will affect many valleys late tonight, especially in southeast KY, but should avoid TAF sites. An area of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will move southeast and what is left of it should begin to make it into the JKL forecast area from the northwest after about 06Z. The showers/thunderstorms will bring localized sub-VFR conditions. They will be on the decline in the morning, with a relative lull forecast from late morning to early afternoon. However, during this time MVFR ceilings are likely to become more prevalent. The ceilings should then lift to VFR levels early in the afternoon, but a new round of showers and thunderstorms will also develop and bring localized sub-VFR conditions once again. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LUEHRS SHORT TERM...BATZ LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1050 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 .Forecast Update... Issued at 1050 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Looking into the overnight hours, a weak upper level disturbance moving from MO/AR into KY/TN, an approaching cold front, and a slight uptick in the low level jet will help to keep the threat of gusty thunderstorms with us overnight. Instability will be steadily decreasing and storms may become slightly elevated, but there will still be enough support for thunder. DCAPE will also decrease, further lessening the chances of severe-level winds. However, some enhanced gusts will still be possible with the stronger storms even if the highest velocities do stay just off the surface. Mesoscale models are still advertising thunderstorms overnight, but have generally backed off on the coverage. Although thunderstorms will be possible anywhere in the region, HREF members favor north central Kentucky and southern Indiana. This is in line with current regional radars that show the most robust convection moving northeastward through the counties along the Ohio River, with less activity to the south. && .Short Term...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 ...Possible Strong to Severe Thunderstorm Wind Gusts through Tomorrow... Synopsis...Upper-level low over south-central Canada will be pushing a shortwave trough from the Midwest to the Northeast within the next 24 hours as an attendant cold front, currently draped over central Illinois and Missouri, will slowly sag south-southeast towards the lower Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a surface boundary will be actively initiating convection this afternoon and evening ahead of the frontal passage with the warm sector primed with a rich theta-e airmass. Rest of the afternoon...Substantial solar heating and dewpoints in the high 60s to low 70s are supporting surface-based showers along differential heating boundaries in the northwestern counties of the CWA. Dry air entrainment and weak capping have been effective in limiting updraft growth into the mixed phase zone as indicated by a lack of lightning and reflectivity above the -10 degC layer. Farther west the story is very different thanks to an instability axis and greater mesoscale forcing which are aiding in persistent robust convection. Expect the 600-mb inversion to keep weakening as the mid- level air moistens up, so storm coverage will probably expand going into the evening over southern Indiana and west-central Kentucky with pulse-like characteristics. Tonight...Current radar imagery depicts a healthy environment for convective growth with the main surface boundary in western Kentucky as cells are closely space among each other. Forecast soundings still show an inverted-V signature due to a near-surface dry airmass. This eventually might help the upscaling process as cells and multicell clusters congeal into locally bowing segments or an MCS. Therefore, the main risk associated with the most robust convection will be damaging wind, followed by small hailstones, lightning and moderate to heavy rainfall rates. Note that SPC made adjustments to the risk categories over our area as we are now under a Slight risk for virtually all the CWA. The aforementioned statement can be justified under two possible scenarios. The first one could be an slightly faster motion of the main convective line so that it can tap into the better MUCAPE in storage over the northern tier of counties, resulting the DCAPE values around 1,000 j/kg. If the above-mentioned scenario happens, strongest storms will weaken after 03z and the greatest concern will be towards the north. The second one is the lowest confidence option and involves upscale growth of the storms upstream, as some CAM guidance has been suggesting. In the latter case, the damaging wind risk could extend towards the south and later in time (more like in line with the Slight risk category). It is worth mentioning that some guidance, especially HRRR and NAM, show an augmented wind surge during the overnight hours that can be tied to an ongoing storm complex through low to mid level warming. Finally, WPC has a marginal risk of flash flooding, but given area-wide FFG and HREF low probability of 1-hr rain rates grater than 1 inch, the flooding threat will be localized and mainly in urban areas where poor drainage and limited run off conditions exist combined with training storms. Tomorrow...Still Marginal risk of damaging winds in the afternoon for the Lake Cumberland area. Forecast reasoning has not changed much during the last updates, so seems appropriate to maintain coverage and timing of greatest risk. Although there might be isolated showers and storms north of the highlighted severe risk area, anticipate a quiet afternoon with a broken layer of low clouds and highs in the mid to high 70s. .Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Thursday Night - Saturday Night... We`ll be post-frontal as we end the work week and head into the weekend. Expansive surface high pressure will control the area into the weekend, along with unremarkable zonal flow aloft. This will bring a return to dry conditions for a few days along with cooler temperatures. Highs on Friday and Saturday are only expected to top out in the upper 70s and low 80s, which is pretty near normal for this time of year. Look for some cool overnight`s as well with min temps in the 50s. Sunday... Sunday still has the potential to be dry, however much will depend on the eventual evolution of a potential tropical disturbance in the western Atlantic. The ECMWF solution would suggest a dry and warm Sunday thanks to some downstream blocking by a stronger and farther NW western Atlantic storm. Meanwhile, other models suggest a much weaker and farther SE solution with that storm that would allow for a faster arrival of moisture and a weak disturbance into our area. Will continue the small chance pops to account of the uncertainty, along with slightly warmer highs back into the mid 80s. Sunday Night - Wednesday... Overall, confidence is low in timing of individual features going into the early and middle part of next week. However, confidence is quite high in a more unsettled stretch of weather. We`ll maintain zonal flow aloft with several embedded features likely working through our region in the progressive flow. Right now the best timing for showers and storms looks to be later Monday into Monday night, and again on Wednesday. Will maintain solid chance pops in the forecast for this period, with highs generally in the low to mid 80s each day. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 722 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 MAIN IMPACTS: Thunderstorms tonight, low ceilings tomorrow morning DISCUSSION: The best chance for showers/storms in the first few hours of the TAF period will be just north of the TAF sites. Thunderstorm chances will then increase from west to east by mid evening and into the overnight hours ahead of an approaching cold front and a small upper level disturbance over Missouri early this evening heading to the east. The stronger storms will be capable of very heavy downpours and locally gusty winds. Tomorrow the cold front will push through, ushering in low ceilings and light northwest breezes. At this time it appears that ceilings should lift back into VFR in the afternoon. CONFIDENCE: High in the likelihood of thunderstorms but lower in exact timing of the greatest threat of strong storms. High in the likelihood of low ceilings Thursday morning, medium with regard to if they will be just above or just below 2k`. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...13 Short Term...ALL Long Term...BJS Aviation...13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
855 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 842 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 It was another warm day across middle TN with BNA reaching 93 degrees and CKV reaching 90s. Thanks to a cold front that will meander through the CWA tomorrow it will not be as hot the next couple of days...closer to normal for this time of year. The risk of a cold front this time of year is the threat for strong to severe storms that comes along with it. The good news it the slight risk for this evening and overnight has been removed leaving a marginal for everywhere other than the western plateau. The radar scope has been relatively quiet all evening...but the HRRR has some storms developing after midnight. Blended the HRRR into the overnight PoPs. There could possible be a strong storm or two overnight but confidence is very low. SPC still has a marginal risk for just about the whole CWA minus Stewart for tomorrow. Still not overly excited about this either. It looks like if any strong to severe storms develop it will be in the afternoon/late afternoon hours and east of I-65. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Isolated showers and storms may continue to pop up over Middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening, but these won`t be out of the ordinary. Later this evening a widespread area of storms will approach from the west. We may still have enough CAPE in place by the time it reaches our northwest counties to sustain thunderstorms, but severe potential will be dampened by the low lapse rates and bulk shear values that exist over our area. There are a couple of CAMS that suggest a slight rise in shear over the northwest just as storms enter that area, but they`ll be battling rapidly decreasing instability at that point. We`ll still keep an eye out for some strong storms...maybe an isolated severe storm, but the threat isn`t great. Since instability falls off overnight, any threat of strong or severe storms after midnight should be quite small. After daybreak tomorrow CAPE values will rapidly increase, but once again, we`ll be missing wind shear to help organize updrafts. We won`t be short on moisture though. PWATs will be around 1.5 to 2 inches throughout the day, so we could see some heavy downpours in several areas. Strong storms with gusty winds will be possible, but widespread severe not expected. Storms will taper from west to east in the afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Noticeably drier air will move in behind Thursday`s frontal passage and provide pleasant conditions for Friday and at least the first part of Saturday. Temperatures will start to warm on Saturday afternoon as winds turn out of the east and then the south, but nearby surface high pressure will hold precip off until at least Sunday afternoon. Kept precip chances running around 30 to 40 percent from Monday through midweek next week as broad troughing over the eastern U.S. brings a few shortwaves over the Tennessee Valley. There doesn`t look to be much relief from the heat and humidity next week, so we`ll be waiting until at least the second part of the week to see any frontal passage with cooler and drier conditions. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Two shots at storms over the next 24 hours, though neither is all that impressive, with weak frontal passage after the second. The first is prior to sunrise tomorrow morning, and the second in the early to mid-afternoon. Some MVFR cigs possible in the afternoon for short periods of time. Winds will shift to the northwest with the fropa tomorrow, starting after sunrise tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 69 83 60 81 / 20 80 10 0 Clarksville 67 79 56 79 / 40 50 0 0 Crossville 65 78 56 75 / 20 80 30 0 Columbia 68 82 58 80 / 20 80 20 0 Cookeville 67 80 58 76 / 20 90 20 0 Jamestown 65 78 55 75 / 20 90 30 0 Lawrenceburg 68 82 59 79 / 20 90 20 0 Murfreesboro 68 83 58 82 / 20 90 20 0 Waverly 67 79 58 79 / 30 60 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......12 SHORT TERM...Whitehead LONG TERM....Whitehead AVIATION.....Unger
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
645 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 The cold front currently stretched across northwest Oklahoma will continue to push across our area increasing chances for more surface based convection through this evening. NAM & RAP guidance still projecting fairly strong surface based instability with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg across our south and near marginal deep-layer shear. Current cloudcover may somewhat limit the instability across much of southeast Oklahoma where the strongest surface moisture of lower 70s dewpoints are in place. However, cloudiness is eroding across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas where diurnal heating is increased as also observed on the Oklahoma Mesonet Solar radiation. As a result, could see those strong CAPE values become more representative to model guidance across our southwest. For now, current pulse convection may start to intensify becoming more severe especially across our southwest. A marginal risk for severe storms will remain across our entire south through this evening, with large damaging hail and damaging wind gust as the main severe hazards. DCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg could certainly result with strong downdrafts with 60-80 mph wind gusts. Flash flooding will be an addition hazard, especially across southwest Oklahoma where previous heavy rainfalls had occurred. However, an area of high PW values will maintain a flooding threat across central and southeast Oklahoma as well should heavy convection occur. After the surface boundary comes through, could see additional but more elevated storms across much of our area as an upper shortwave disturbance comes through our westerlies. Severe storms may linger overnight near the Red River where the surface boundary is likely to be in place, although could see some additional strong to marginally severe storms across the rest of our area with the more isolated elevated storm. All storm POPs are out of our forecast by the start of Thursday afternoon. A cooling trend starts Thursday afternoon on the back side of the cold front a north winds bring in cooler than seasonably temperatures. Thursday afternoon MaxT`s are forecast to be mild and perhaps 10 degrees cooler than average for early June. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A shortwave trough and weak mid-level warm advection may be enough for late evening and overnight convection to develop across the Texas Panhandle late Thursday night. Some of this precipitation may develop far enough east for widely scattered showers and a few storms across western Oklahoma/western north Texas by early Friday morning. A little unsure how far east this will develop during the morning and early afternoon on Friday. Better moisture return Friday afternoon, should result in scattered thunderstorm development across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas. With a modest low level jet and another shortwave through, this convection may organize and move across parts of western Oklahoma and western north Texas overnight Friday into Saturday morning, perhaps farther east. Convection Saturday afternoon into Sunday/Monday will become more complicated as rather warm 7h temperatures will overspread western and central Oklahoma. A few model indicate that storms may organize again Saturday afternoon/evening and move across the eastern half of Oklahoma. It`s possible that another round of storms may impact mainly northern Oklahoma late Sunday into early Monday where mid-level temperatures will be slightly cooler. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Scattered TSRA will continue in a east-west oriented band across western and central Oklahoma this evening. An eventual shift southward is expected toward and after 04Z as deeper flow shifts more to northwesterly. IFR/MVFR will be the rule first half of the forecast across northern into central Oklahoma before drier air deepens and shifts lower cigs southward. Transition from MVFR to VFR expected tomorrow morning 12-18Z with VFR and dry conditions expected most of tomorrow. Winds will remain light and generally north to northeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 58 74 60 75 / 70 20 10 20 Hobart OK 56 74 61 76 / 60 20 20 30 Wichita Falls TX 61 77 64 80 / 70 30 20 20 Gage OK 52 72 58 74 / 30 10 20 30 Ponca City OK 54 74 56 76 / 40 0 0 10 Durant OK 64 78 65 79 / 70 60 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for OKZ014>030-033>040-044. TX...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ083-085. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
546 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 542 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A mesoscale convective system over western and central Missouri early this morning has altered the flow pattern. The 12z models, including the cams, did not really latch onto the mesoscale system. As a result, most of the models are missing the low level boundaries and qpf forecasts. Many of the mesoscale models such as the hrrr generate a mass of convection over south central and se Missouri over the next several hours. However, these models seem to have a very poor handle on the location of the residual outflow boundary that was along the Wabash and lower Ohio River at 20z. The forecast for early tonight will contain a more broad brush chance pop for the forecast area, as opposed to the categorical pops indicated by the high-res models. The air mass has become quite unstable along and east of the outflow boundary, including southwest IN and much of western KY. A few storms may briefly contain hail or strong winds ahead of the boundary. Otherwise, expect a gradual decrease in storm intensity later this evening and overnight as the air mass cools. Some fog is possible where skies clear out, especially where heavy rain occurs today. The remnants of the boundary will be overtaken by the synoptic scale cold front overnight, which will then bring a well-defined surge of drier and cooler air. Any lingering showers or storms will end on Thursday morning over most areas, except over western Kentucky where activity could linger into the afternoon. Highs will be mainly in the upper 70s. Thursday night through Friday night will feature clear skies and light north to northeast winds as high pressure passes by. Lows will be in the 50s, with highs near 80. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 The Quad State will be under zonal flow aloft through the extended portion of the forecast. A series of disturbances is expected to bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms to all or a portion of the region Sunday through next Wednesday. At this time, better chances of showers and storms seem to be associated with disturbances on Monday and next Wednesday. At the surface, we will start out under high pressure Saturday with southeast winds and pleasant dewpoints in the 50s. South winds will develop Sunday and continue through Monday. As Monday`s disturbance passes, a weak frontal boundary may reach the Quad State, and the 12Z CMC in particular shows convection training eastward along that boundary Tuesday. This boundary should shift back north Wednesday allowing south winds to return areawide. The bottom line is that timing disturbances in zonal flow regimes is a low confidence proposition. For now we and the NBM have daily chances of convection Sunday through next Wednesday and it could very well rain somewhere each day. In general, instability will be modest and shear will be weak, but could increase to some degree with the passage of each disturbance. Therefore, a stray strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out any afternoon, but organized severe weather is unlikely. Moisture will only be near climatological norms, so widespread heavy rainfall/flooding concerns should be relatively low. Of course, if the boundary lays down across the region Tuesday, training could lead to more of a heavy rainfall and flooding threat. Temperatures should be within a few degrees of normal through the period. && .AVIATION... Issued at 542 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A cold front will work its way across the terminals tonight. A chance of restricted cigs/vsbys will accompany the front with showers/storms possible. These may linger into tmrw morning east (KEVV-KOWB), then chances diminish as the cooler and more stable airmass behind the front slowly works across the region. Bases should lift to low VFR by/during the afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
512 PM PDT Wed Jun 1 2022 .AVIATION...00Z TAFs...Currently high-end VFR ceilings (greater than 7 kft) area wide, except some low-end VFR bases across central OR mountains and the Blues where there has been clumping and deepening cu over the last two hours per latest day cloud phase satellite imagery. Initial concern is possible isolated mountain showers this evening/early tonight over the WA cascades and the central OR mountains-southern Blues. However, confidence is high (>80%) that terminals outside these areas shouldn`t see any precip. Meantime, light breezes with occasional gusts 15-20 mph exist across the Basin to central OR with winds expected to lessen 6 kts or less by late evening. Tomorrow afternoon there will be increasing potential for isolated- scattered showers and thunderstorms. The main area of concern is across central OR and the central OR mountains to the northern Blues and vicinity foothills. Current thinking is the best chances for initial activity begin near and after 2 PM PDT with activity/storms moving northeastward around 15 kts or so. The combination of lower confidence (less than 30%), storm coverage (isolated- scattered), and anticipated evolution (generally more east of TAF terminals) preclude a mention of thunderstorms at this time for tomorrow afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM PDT Wed Jun 1 2022/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Showers are filling up on WSR-88Ds across western WA, and scattered showers have developed over eastern Washington from Ephrata to Pullman. Our forecast area remains under a weak shortwave ridge with no precipitation at this time, but the ridge is shifting eastward and the showers will develop along the east side of the Cascades in the next couple of hours. The HRRR has backed off considerably on the reflectivity over the southern WA Cascades, and Mesoscale Analysis on SPC has very weak CAPE so have removed the thunderstorms from the forecast. Will keep isolated showers and thunderstorms over the northern Blues and Wallowa county but it may be a stray thunderstorm or two. The thunderstorm threat is looking more promising with each model run, and it now appears that storms will be strong with heavy downpours. SPC has placed portions of northeast Oregon in a marginal risk for severe weather. The 18Z NAM is disconcerting advertising a fairly strong shortwave embedded in a southwest flow aloft over northeast OR. This is also an area of H7 diffluence. A Hydrologic Outlook was issued to discuss the moderate to heavy rain from Thursday through Sunday, but the next couple of shifts may need to analyze whether flash flooding is a concern. The steering flow is not impressive--only about 10-15 knots--and the PWATS will be near 1.0 inch. Although there is a marginal risk for severe weather, the bulk shear is around 30 knots from 0-6km which would indicate that strong sustained updrafts will not be likely. From Thursday night through Friday night, the forecast area will remain under a fairly moist southwest flow aloft with continued instability. A deep low will remain off the Gulf of Alaska and will send a series of waves across Washington and Oregon. The potential for thunder on the NBM is around 40-60 pct on Friday for eastern mountains/valleys, but the fly in the ointment for anything more than scattered thunderstorms will be the dense cloud cover during the first part of the day. Will keep a chance of thunderstorms but this may be lowered to slight chance. Wister/85 LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...An active period of weather will continue through at least this weekend as an upper low off the BC coast brings periods of rain showers and thunderstorms. Drier and warmer conditions will develop after Monday and into Wednesday as guidance depicts upper level ridging building into the region. Ensemble and deterministic guidance in good agreement through Sunday that a series of shortwave impulses will round an upper low off the coast of BC and swing across the PacNW each day. The main uncertainty through this period will result from the timing of the shortwave impulses across the region, especially for Sunday. Current deterministic guidance shows the shortwave passage timed for the afternoon, which would result in the best chances for not only rain showers, but also support a greater risk of thunderstorms mainly across mountain areas as it stands. However, looking at ensemble guidance shows more of this timing uncertainty, as individual members amongst the GFS and ECMWF differ on an order of 12 hours for the shortwave passage. Otherwise, guidance imparts moderate to high confidence in renewed chance of rain showers Saturday and Sunday for the area. The other story with these showers will be the risk for some areas seeing another round of moderate to heavy rain, which may result in additional rises in area rivers and streams, especially in northeast OR, far southeast WA, and the east slopes of the WA Cascades. Though this far out precipitation amounts are still in flux, ensemble guidance and individual members do consistently depict higher rain amounts in the mountains, while the ECMWF EFI is also signaling the potential for higher rain amounts with the area under 0.7 to 0.9 percentiles. At this time, will need to wait a couple more model runs for confidence to rise in location and potential for heavy rain amounts. Otherwise, enough instability will be present both Saturday and Sunday for isolated thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening, but as mentioned above, timing of shortwave impulses could help or hinder thunderstorm development. Confidence continues to be at least moderate in the progression of the upper air pattern through the middle of next week. A ridge of high pressure is anticipated to build into the region late Monday, decreasing chance of rain showers area wide. The main uncertainty, however, stems from the strength of the ridge, as some solutions favor a weak and flat ridge over the region. This would prevent strong or moderate warm air advection across the area while also allowing several shortwaves in the flow to bring renewed chances of weak to moderate rain showers to mainly the mountain zones. Regardless, expect a drying and warming trend to result through the middle of next week. Lawhorn/82 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 55 80 55 71 / 10 20 60 60 ALW 57 80 58 73 / 10 20 50 60 PSC 59 83 60 78 / 10 20 20 40 YKM 55 81 54 74 / 10 30 30 50 HRI 58 83 56 76 / 10 20 30 50 ELN 53 76 53 69 / 20 30 40 70 RDM 50 80 48 68 / 10 50 40 40 LGD 50 73 50 68 / 10 30 70 80 GCD 52 75 49 69 / 10 40 60 70 DLS 57 82 58 70 / 10 40 30 50 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...85 LONG TERM....82 AVIATION...80