Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/31/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Cycle VFR conditions will continue at all three TAF sites through 00Z Wednesday. South to southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts near 35 knots will diminish to around 10 to 20 knots after 01Z to 03Z Tuesday. A cold front will shift the winds to the north 10 to 20 knots at the Guymon and Dalhart TAF sites after 12Z to 14Z Tuesday and then at the Amarillo TAF site after 21Z to 23Z Tuesday. Schneider && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 253 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022/ SHORT TERM... A very broad elongated cyclonic flow is depicted from northern NV across the Rockies over to western NE, per GOES-16 water vapor analysis. A mid to upper level trough base is running from southern CA through AZ, NM northeast through the FA. H5 winds are progged to currently be 70 to 80 kts over the OK Panhandle and portions of the northwestern TX Panhandle. Because of this upper level trough partially digging into the area suppressing the high pressure that brought triple digit, record breaking highs across the combined Panhandles just two days ago. This afternoon highs are only supposed to be in the mid 80s to the northwest to the lower 90s elsewhere. The exception being the far southeast TX Panhandle and areas off the caprock getting to the mid to upper 90s. For this afternoon southwest winds will be breezy in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts up to 35 mph. Per Bufkit soundings winds aloft in the lower atmosphere are not quite as high as yesterday and winds will only be mixing to H7-H6 layer. Dewpoints will be in the teens to 20s for the combined Panhandles this afternoon as a dryline sets up just to the east. The dryline is progged to run from the Midland area northeast around Childress, possibly just to the east of there, and continue north-northeast through portions of western Oklahoma. Going into the evening mainly after 9 PM a weak surface low forms over eastern portions of NM and winds become fairly weak on the dry side of the dryline. This will lead to the dryline retreating back into the FA bringing 60 degree dewpoints into the eastern third of the TX Panhandle. Maybe even into portions far southeastern Beaver County as well. This surface low will track northeast along the dryline and a surface cold front will be moving south at the same time. The front is expected to bring north winds into the OK Panhandle around midnight and stall out around the northern to possibly central TX Panhandle through the rest of the overnight hours. The front may possibly spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the far eastern Oklahoma Panhandle. Confidence at this time is not very high. Only have a small portion up against northwest OK with 10 percent PoPs. Hoffeditz Fire Weather... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to prevail through this afternoon for the western to central combined Panhandles. RH values are expected to fall into the single digits once again. Higher winds will be located in the western OK Panhandle to northwest TX Panhandle where sustained winds could get to around 30-35 mph elsewhere winds are expected to be closer to the 15 to 30 mph range. Dallam County and Cimarron County may see some RFTIs around 7 to 8 while areas further south see RFTI values as high as 5 to 6. A cold front will eventually shift the winds to the north mainly for the OK Panhandle and northwest TX Panhandle between 9PM CDT and midnight tonight. Guidance does have the front stalling leaving much of the southern TX Panhandle in southwesterly to westerly winds until closer to sunrise. Winds are not expected to be too crazy overnight (as far as speeds go) with the front. Mainly only topping out around 15 to 20 mph. Today should be the last day of critical fire weather conditions for at least the next few days. Hoffeditz LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday... Bottom Line Up Top: Strong to severe thunderstorms and flooding concerns will increase starting Tuesday late afternoon through Wednesday. However, there is some uncertainty with where a convectively augmented cold front may stall tomorrow and this will affect where the higher level severe threat will end up tomorrow evening. This front is expected to retreat some Tuesday night before pushing back down through the area by late Wednesday. Areas north of the front will see increased cloud cover and some chances for elevated storms chances each day, but the higher severe chances will be along and south of the boundary. Details: A broad upper level trough with embedded shortwaves will continue to spin over a large portion of the northwest and north- central CONUS resulting in a belt of southwesterlies over the southern plains. The main shortwave is currently lifting up across the NE/SD region as the second weaker shortwave moves over portions of UT and NV. The second shortwave is progged to strengthen as it moves across the Colorado Rocky Mountains while high pressure builds over southern TX. The net result will be a stronger 500mb jet streak extending towards the upper midwest. The right entrance region of this jet streak will provide some lift across the Panhandles Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday until the upper flow becomes more zonal as the shortwave departs to the northeast. At the surface, a cold front currently sampled from northeast CO to south central SD will dive south, augmented by outflow from ongoing showers and storms in those areas. A lee surface low is also expected to strengthen in eastern NM before shifting over the north central Panhandles tonight into early Tuesday morning. This low will play a part in determining where the cold front will stall. The latest HRRR and RAP stall the front near Canyon to Canadian (which is more in line with NAM/NAMNest) while CMC, EC and GFS stall the front a county or two further south. This will determine where the greatest area of concern for a few supercells capable of all hazards may end up Tuesday afternoon into late Tuesday evening. Additional elevated strong storms may develop overnight behind the cold front, but these would pose more of a hail and heavy rain threat due to the elevated nature. In the scenario that the northern position for the frontal position verifies, more of the Panhandles would stay in the warm/moist sector with a pseudo triple point setting up in the central or east central Texas Panhandle where cold front and dryline intersect. Dew point values are progged to increase into the low to mid 60s in the moist sector as low level winds back to southeast or even easterly near the boundary late Tuesday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced low level SRH, with 0-1km values possibly exceeding 200 m^2/s^2 during the late evening as a nocturnal low level jet ramps up. Deep layer effective shear of 45 to 55 knots will also be noted, mainly due to the veering wind profiles with modestly strong southwesterlies aloft. Finally, as the low level moisture increases, lapse rates remain steep enough for large MLCAPE possibly upwards of 2000 to 3000 J/kg south of the front and east of the dryline. Any storms that develop near the front and move into the moist sector could quickly become supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a few tornadoes. This threat may actually peak after dark with a surge of low level moisture which could maintain surface based storms. The main failure modes include 1) the front ends up too far south and 2) storms don`t form until later in the evening and quickly become elevated. A second round of storms may form behind the front overnight in response to increase isentropic lift as moisture around 700mb surges north. These storms would pose more of a hail threat, however lapse rates also start becoming more moist adiabatic which limits CAPE, so severe hail may be limited. Some NAM sounding profiles suggest MUCAPE could stay large overnight in which case severe hail would be more probable. The wind and tornado threat should diminish substantially after around 06z. PWATs will be increasing to 90th percentile values or higher, so any areas that see multiple rounds of storms could see some flooding issues. Some training of storms near the cold front is also possible. The latest guidance is starting to favor a lot of stratus in the area Wednesday and Thursday as the front dives back down, so any thunderstorms would remain elevated. Expect below normal high temperatures. Flow aloft will become more westerly to northwesterly, and a few minor shortwaves could trigger some periods of isolated convection. Drizzle may be possible during this period given the near saturated conditions at the surface. Ward && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Armstrong- Carson-Dallam-Deaf Smith-Hansford-Hartley-Hutchinson-Moore- Oldham-Palo Duro Canyon-Potter-Randall-Sherman. OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Cimarron-Texas. && $$ 11/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
650 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 .DISCUSSION...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Key Messages: - Tonight: Severe Risk - mostly west of the Mississippi River - Wind Advisory west of the Mississippi into the evening - Tue Storm Chances: shifting eastward - Cooler Temps Return - Late Week Rain Chances * TONIGHT: Strong, Severe Storm Risk - Mainly West Of Mississippi Sharpening upper level trough/closed low lifting north/northeast across the northern plains this afternoon a +100 kt 300 mb jet pushes north across MN. Strong 50 kt 850 mb jet takes the same path, also serving to push low level moisture ahead of associated dry line/cold front. MUCAPE pool of 2-3K J/kg building across MN. 60-70 kts of 0-6 km shear coincide with the instability axis with 40 kts in 0-3 km and 30+ 0-1km. Widespread severe storms expected for central/northern MN as a result. South of there, meso models in good agreement with sparking convection along a leading dry line/cold front as the afternoon wears on, moving east across southern MN/IA, but not reaching SE MN/NE IA until shortly after 00z. Instability not as strong as to the west, but 1000-1500+ J/kg MUCAPE to play with and 50-60 kts 0-6km shear (roughly 40kt 1-7km). RAP soundings suggest a 1-3 hour where storms could be sfc based, but near sfc CIN increasing by 03z, likely making any storm elevated. There will be a large hail, damaging wind (1000 J/kg DCAPE) and isolated tor risk for SE MN/NE IA for this evening, weakening/transitioning to elevated hail and potentially wind as the evening wears on/storms shift east. Some mixed signals in the meso models on whether the line would be continuous or broken. A few only unzip along the front to the MN/IA border, which would potentially carry this convection just north- west of the local area (effectively keeping any severe risk away). This likely stems from the CAP remaining stronger in the south. Eventually convection gets going along the southern flank, with a piece of upper level energy and branch of the low level jet playing roles. Much of this convection could hold south of I-90. Instability decreasing but still good shear for storm development. Some stronger storm potential and can`t rule out a few severe storms - but the threat would be lesser compared to early this evening. Some complexity to how this plays out locally and close monitoring of development/environment will be needed to refine storm/severe threat areas. Anticipate some adjustments. * WINDY: continues into tonight Even with the loss off daytime mixing, its going to stay windy tonight as tight sfc pressure gradient (associated with sfc low lifting north/northeast across the northern plains) persists. Sustained winds in the lower 20 mph with gusts still pushing north of 30 mph from time to time expected for SE MN/NE IA. Will likely be able to let the Wind Advisory for these locations expire at 8 pm for the mid 40s gusts. * TUE STORM CHANCES: shifting east, could miss local area Upper level trough/closed low continues to lift northeast into southern Canada while an associated cold front hangs roughly from southeast WI southwestwards through northern MO at 00z Wed. Overnight convection across IA likely still ongoing by daybreak Tue, moving northeast along the front. Should be in a weakening state for the morning, with nocturnal cap keeping any storms elevated. Heating/afternoon destabilization look to push MUCAPES upwards of 2500 J/kg, which should be enough to break cap by mid/late afternoon. Expect further convection to develop around the front, with wind shear aiding/supporting upscale strong/severe potential. Positioning of the front/impacts of the morning convection aren`t entirely clear, but latest runs of meso/CAMS models favor keeping the strong-severe storms just to the east/southeast of the local area. Too close to say "no" (southwest WI just on the fringe), but higher risk generally from southeast IA into southeast WI. * COOLER: say goodbye to the summer heat/humidity Much cooler, drier air pushes in post the passing upper level trough/cold front Tue night...and looks to settle in for the rest of the week with generally zonal/northwest flow a loft. Temps will take a tumble as the bulk of the EC ensemble members (75%) keep highs at or below the early June normals. GEFS concurs...with both suggesting upper 60s to lower 70s into early next week. Comfortable start to the summer month, but conditions more typical of early May rather than June. * RAIN CHANCES: late week-weekend potential With the transition to quicker, mostly zonal-northwest flow a loft, a few shortwave troughs are progged to spin across the region as starting as soon as Thu night...with the possibility for more ripples/rain chances through the weekend. Instability looks meager at this time and no real tap into gulf moisture. Severe, heavy rain threat looks low as a result. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 South to southeast winds will not be quite as strong heading into tonight, but will still remain gusty through this TAF period with a respectable pressure gradient in place. These gusty surface winds will mitigate concerns for low level wind shear overnight as a modest low level jet passes overhead. Winds will turn more southwesterly on Tuesday as a cold front approaches. Other aviation concern tonight will be potential for a broken line of showers/storms later this evening into early Tuesday morning. Confidence still remains on the lower side owing to sparse development thus far over central Iowa. However, hi-res models still suggest expanding convective development over the next few hours, likely pushing into RST after 02-03Z. Storms would weaken as they progress eastward towards LSE by late evening. Dry conditions are then on tap for both TAF sites once this potential line of convection exits early Tuesday morning. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ086-087-094-095. IA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ008>010-018-019- 029. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rieck AVIATION...Kurz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
719 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the region through mid-week with above normal temperatures. A few afternoon thunderstorms mainly in the southeast Midlands and CSRA next couple of days associated with a sea breeze. A cold front is expected to move through the region Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Slightly cooler temperatures behind the front for next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Today unfolded pretty much as expected with convection associated with a shortwave moving inland through GA and impacting the eastern Midlands and CSRA with scattered storms. Regional radar showing convection waning with the loss of heating and having become outflow dominated. Temperatures have dropped well into the 70s across the CSRA and southern Midlands from the rain and outflows. Expect debris clouds to persist across the southern half of the forecast area this evening with clearing across the north. Persistent easterly flow off the Atlantic will keep low level moisture high and expect another repeat of stratus/fog development along the Coastal Plain then migrate further inland over our area during the predawn hours. Overnight lows expected to be near normal in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday and Tuesday night...Surface ridge over the area and moisture appears more limited. The precipitable water is expected to be around 1 inch in the central Midlands and maybe 1.4 inches in the extreme southeast Midlands and CSRA with moisture shallow. Upper ridge axis appears to be west of the area but strong subsidence expected and soundings suggest a stronger mid level cap. Lowered pops slightly from previous forecast and confined to the extreme southeast Midlands/CSRA near any possible sea breeze activity in the afternoon. Should be a little warmer with general subsidence with highs in the low 90s. Lows near 70. Wednesday and Wednesday night...Upper level ridge axis retrogrades a bit but air mass may be a little drier and subsidence appears stronger with mid level capping. Surface ridge dominating and no pops. Resulting warmer temps into the mid 90s with full insolation in the afternoon. Lows again around 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Center of the ridge moves further southwest Thursday as a low amplitude upper trough moves east from the north central Plains. This will drive a weak cold front toward the area. Still some timing issues with front but it may move into the area earlier Thursday night into Friday. The front may stall or become diffuse near the area Friday so continued chance pops. Some model suggestion moisture may be limited with the front. The moisture appears to focus in the coastal plain by Saturday so lower pops over the weekend but can`t rule out a few isolated/widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the weekend into early next week. Temperatures will be above normal early/pre-frontal then normal over the weekend with ensembles showing below normal upper level heights over the southeast. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The overall setup for tonight`s weather will be similar to the previous night. Shallow moisture and SE flow will work to promote low stratus development over the region. The HRRR verified well last night and shows widespread ceiling restrictions again tonight, increasing confidence. Therefore we favored a persistence forecast with early morning IFR/LIFR ceilings at all TAF sites. Ceilings should be the primary threat given a 10 to 15 kt LLJ but dense fog may also develop at OGB, DNL and AGS. We held onto restrictions a little longer than the models similar to what verified on the previous day. Tuesday, expect light SE winds and another round of isolated showers and storms in the afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection may bring restrictions through mid-week. Early morning fog also possible. A front late this week may bring more widespread restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1008 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 QLCS continues to propagate northeastward across the Minnesota Arrowhead, western Lake Superior, and northwest Wisconsin. While bowing segments are noted on radar, particularly along the North Shore and over northeast St. Louis County, the loss of low-level instability seems to have curtailed the severe weather risk. KDLH outbound velocities are still in the 45 to 55 knot range with the bowing segment near Silver Bay. However, surface obs haven`t registered a gust higher than around 30 knots. Think the stable layer along the shoreline and inland is cushioning the surface from the stronger winds aloft. There may be a sporadic surface gust of 40 to 50 knots over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, so have left WS295 in effect ahead of the line. Overall, think the severe weather risk will continue to decrease over the next several hours. MESOSCALE UPDATE Issued at 902 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Severe weather threat continues for WT293 and WS295. KDLH VAD profile showed a large cyclonic curvature in the lowest 1km as of 01Z. QLCS stretched from near Dryden, ON to near Embarrass, to Floodwood, to Duluth to Danbury, WI at 0145Z. Bowing segments with enhanced damaging wind potential of 60 to 80 mph is the main threat at this time. Embedded QLCS tornadoes are possible with considerable 0-3 km bulk shear of 45 to 55 knots. Some of those tornadoes may be strong. Environment is becoming more favorable for severe storms to continue into the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. RAP mesoanalysis suggests 0-3 km MLCAPE will decrease rapidly over the next 2 to 3 hours and the Warn-on- Forecast system agrees with that assessment. Of additional concern over the next several hours is a potential for additional storm development over central Minnesota as the cold front moves in. Very strong low-level jet will result in a damaging wind threat with any storms which develop. MUCAPE is forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg in that area, so the risk is conditional on one or two storms tapping into the available instability and being able to sustain themselves instead of being sheared apart. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Summary: Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight. A few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging winds of 60 to 80 mph, large hail from quarter to baseball size, and torrential rainfall which may lead to flash flooding are all possible. Showers and non-severe storms will linger on Tuesday before drier and quieter weather arrives by Wednesday. A complex weather pattern was found over the Upper Midwest this afternoon. At 20Z, a surface low was centered near Lake of the Woods with a quasi-stationary front over northern Minnesota, northern Lake Superior, and eastern Upper Michigan. A second surface low was centered near Sioux Falls with a warm front which extended northeast through Willmar to near St. Cloud, MN to Rice Lake, WI. A quasi-stationary front stretched from near the northern surface low, down the eastern Dakotas, and into eastern Nebraska and will move eastward as a cold front tonight. The warm front was surging northward quickly, as it was analyzed around 100 miles farther south over southern Minnesota at 18Z. The warm sector south of the warm front was uncapped with MLCAPE of 2000 to more than 2500 J/kg with effective bulk shear of 40 to 80 knots, 0-3 km bulk shear of 45 to 55 knots, and large curved hodographs. Supercells with very large hail, damaging wind gusts to 80 mph, and a few strong tornadoes are possible south of the warm front. That warm front will continue to surge north into central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin by early evening. The greatest tornado threat will be over central and west-central Minnesota through this evening, which will include areas south of a line from Cass Lake to Grand Rapids, to Mora, including Brainerd, Aitkin, Longville, and McGregor. The thunderstorms are expected to grow upscale this evening and transition to a QLCS wind and tornado threat. The damaging wind and tornado threat will persist overnight and include all of northern Minnesota and much of northwest Wisconsin. Torrential rainfall may lead to flash flooding, particularly late tonight as the western edge of the storm complex becomes oriented parallel to the cold front. Low pressure will gradually push eastward on Tuesday and will keep showers and thunderstorms in the picture through the day. Storms are expected to be non-severe. A quieter weather pattern emerges Wednesday and beyond. While there are showers and storms possible in the extended, widespread or organized precipitation is not anticipated until next Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Thunderstorms will move through the terminals this evening. Strong wind gusts of 50 to 60 knots, hail, and low visibility are expected as the storms move through. Fog and low stratus may develop behind the line and continue into the night. Showers and storms will be possible again Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 357 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for portions of western Lake Superior until around 10 PM. Visibility will be variable and will be less than 1/2 nautical mile at times. As a warm front lifts north across western Lake Superior, think fog will be pushed inland and dissipate. Rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight. Wind gusts of 35 to 60 knots are possible with the strongest storms. Hail larger than penny-size, and torrential rainfall with visibility less 1/2 mile are likely as well. Northeast winds will back southeasterly tonight and may turn southwesterly behind the storms. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots are possible. We have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore waters through 7 AM Wednesday. Some of the high-resolution forecast models feature gale-force gusts of 35 to 40 knots. These models have been persistently too strong with the wind gusts now that lake temperatures are much colder than the air temperatures, so I am skeptical winds that strong will develop. If they do develop, some or all of the areas in the Small Craft Advisory will need to be upgraded to a Gale Warning. Winds and waves will settle on Wednesday as high pressure builds into the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 58 64 45 64 / 90 50 10 0 INL 54 61 41 61 / 100 90 30 0 BRD 56 61 45 65 / 90 60 10 0 HYR 62 73 45 66 / 100 30 10 0 ASX 63 75 46 65 / 100 30 10 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121-140>148- 150. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ142>145. && $$ MESOSCALE UPDATE...Huyck DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...Huyck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
332 PM PDT Mon May 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Cool northwest breeze continues today, although a degree or two warmer than yesterday. The warming trend continues Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon highs Wednesday and Thursday will be several degrees above normal. A return to near normal afternoon highs looks likely this weekend as the ridge of high pressure weakens. && .DISCUSSION... Northwesterly flow continues this afternoon, keeping temperatures cooler than normal. Afternoon highs will rise a degree or two from yesterday as a ridge of high pressure builds in the Eastern Pacific. Northwesterly winds are favored to pick up again through and just below the mountain passes in Kern County as shown by HRRR model, so a Wind Advisory will go into effect there starting at 3 PM lasting through 3 AM Tuesday. Afternoon highs are expected to jump several degrees as high pressure builds over Central California. NBM guidance is showing highs in the mid to upper 80s across the San Joaquin Valley by tomorrow afternoon. The warming trend will continue into Wednesday as the ridge axis shifts east, putting it directly overhead. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be in the mid 90s across the valley and desert areas. Afternoon highs remain warm across the region on Thursday, but may come back down a degree or two in Merced county as the ridge of high pressure begins to weaken. The cooling trend continues Friday and Saturday as a trough of low pressure meanders around the Pacific Northwest and flattens the ridge. We may see breezy conditions across the valley and desert areas on Friday and Saturday due to onshore flow. Afternoon highs on Saturday will likely retreat back to the mid to upper 80s due to the flow pattern. We may also get a chance of a shower or two near YNP as the upslope flow pattern and some lift give the area some instabilyt in the afternoon. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail throughout the Central California interior for at least the next 24 hours. Local surface wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots will be possible across the eastern slopes of the Kern County mountains from 22Z Monday until 10Z Tuesday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information an/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338. && $$ public...Bollenbacher aviation....Bollenbacher
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Main challenge/concern is convective/severe potential the next couple of days and also where locally heavy rain may fall. At early afternoon, dry-line extended from east of KSLN to west of KICT. With some exceptions, general short term models like HRRR/earlier RAP, develop convection along the dry-line(DL)/cold frontal merger in northeast Kansas southward along the DL toward KICT in the 22-00z time frame. The RAP seems to have a better grasp of short term dew points and resulting instability where MLCape values of 2500-3000 j/kg should reside near peak heating in the presence of 55-60 kts bulk shear. While better chances may reside just northeast of the forecast area, chc20-40 PoPs remain warranted along/just west of the turnpike corridor thru early this evening. Primary severe hazards will be large hail and damaging winds, though initial storms may have some tornado risk. That said, chances look to ramp up a bit more later in the evening/overnight across central Kansas, where cold front will overtake the retreating DL. While becoming more elevated in nature, increasing elevated moisture flux in the presence of moderate instability should result in better convective coverage with a few strong storms and some back-building into the veering low level jet possible across central Kansas. Main challenge later Tuesday is position of the effective cold front which may become quasi-stationary for a time from east central into south central Kansas. While diurnal heating in the warm sector should yield better instability in excess of 3000 j/kg of MLCape, bulk shear will not be as great, though the combo sufficient for organized severe convection. The late morning RAP was preferred over the NAM and GFS in depicting QPF into Tuesday night, as the NAM seemed too far north and GFS too far south. This would place potential for heavy rainfall in southern Kansas just to the north of the effective frontal boundary, where the better PWAT, elevated instability and elevated moisture flux convergence look to reside Tuesday evening/night. The potential for elevated showers and storms will continue through Wednesday with much cooler temperatures across the area. In short term, winds have subsided east of the DL and will allow Wind Advisory to expire at 4 pm. Darmofal .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Modest westerly flow aloft will prevail across mid-America through the weekend with weak perturbations emanating of the front range across the area. The influence of a stronger trof and upper low off the Pacific coast may result in gradual height falls over the Rockies by early next week. Temperatures look to average closer to seasonal climo with rather low confidence on precip/convective chances thru these periods though will maintain rather low PoPs for now. KED && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Scattered strong to severe storms will affect south central Kansas and the KICT terminal early this evening. A cold front will merge with a dry line across central Kansas tonight with scattered storms expected to develop further north across portions of central Kansas. Low level wind shear will occur before the cold frontal passage early tonight. Besides a wind shift, patchy MVFR cigs are expected Tuesday morning across portions of south central and southeast Kansas. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 68 82 60 66 / 30 50 70 70 Hutchinson 63 80 58 64 / 40 30 60 60 Newton 66 79 59 65 / 40 40 60 60 ElDorado 69 82 60 66 / 30 60 80 70 Winfield-KWLD 71 86 63 69 / 20 60 80 70 Russell 55 81 53 63 / 20 10 30 60 Great Bend 57 80 54 62 / 20 10 40 60 Salina 61 81 56 65 / 60 20 40 60 McPherson 62 79 57 64 / 60 30 50 60 Coffeyville 73 86 65 74 / 10 30 80 70 Chanute 72 85 63 70 / 30 50 80 70 Iola 71 83 62 68 / 30 60 80 60 Parsons-KPPF 73 85 64 73 / 20 40 80 70 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KED LONG TERM...KED AVIATION...KED
mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, model guidance
continues to exhibit a southward trend in highest shower coverage,
and accordingly our forecast favors 20-30% chances generally along and south of Interstate 80. It`s entirely possible our entire area ends up dry should the frontal boundary slip further south than model guidance currently indicates. Thursday through Saturday look decidedly pleasant and open-window worthy as a surface high pressure system slides into the western Great Lakes. Low humidity, plenty of sunshine, and highs/lows in the mid to upper 70s/lower 50s appear to be a good bet with locally cooler temperatures along the lakeshore. Forecast confidence lowers considerably from Sunday onward owing to ensemble differences in the evolution of the upper-level pattern (as well as any influence of a tropical system that may develop in the Gulf of Mexico). Applying the "squint" test to ensemble meteograms supports increasing chances for showers Sunday night and Monday... though details beyond that will have to wait for later forecast packages. Borchardt && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Aviation forecast concerns: * Strong south winds with gusts 30+ kts early this evening. * LLWS conditions overnight with south-southwest 2000` AGL winds around 50 kts. * Thunderstorm chances increasing Tuesday afternoon and perhaps more so Tuesday evening for Chicago terminals. Some strong to severe storms possible. Deep surface low pressure was over the eastern Dakotas early this evening, with a broad warm sector across the forecast area. Sustained surface winds of 15-25 kts and gusts as high as 35 kts have been observed at our TAF sites recently, and the KLOT VWP supports this continuing into early evening with 35 kt south winds between roughly 500` and 1500` AGL. Gusts should ease a bit with and after sunset as the boundary layer begins to decouple, though warm temps and mechanical mixing associated with the strong winds will keep breezy conditions going overnight. Similar to last night, forecast soundings depict the low level jet increasing to around 50 kts at the 2000` AGL level and above, presenting LLWS conditions even with continued surface gusts. Breezy south-southwest winds will continue on Tuesday, though are not expected to be quite as strong as today as the surface low lifts north into western Ontario. Attention turns to shower and thunderstorm trends for the area, ahead of an approaching cold front which will trail the departing low pressure system. Thunderstorm potential looks to be focused Tuesday evening in the better low level moist axis and confluent/convergent low level wind field ahead of the front. However, even with somewhat stronger capping earlier in the day a few scattered showers or thunderstorms can`t be ruled out as early as late morning or early afternoon as some high-res CAM guidance suggests. This earlier timing appears to be associated with a potential small scale short wave or MCV feature associated with storms developing over central KS this evening. With higher confidence in better forced Tuesday evening convection across the terminals have introduced a tempo in that period, but have included a prob30 for lower confidence in a period during the afternoon as depicted by the high- res HRRR and ARW guidance. Some of the storms Tuesday evening could be strong to severe with hail and strong gusty surface winds. Surface cold front looks to push across ORD and MDW at the end of the TAF period, with west and eventually northwest winds behind the front later Tuesday night. Ratzer && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...nearshore waters until 7 PM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
900 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to influence the Mid-Atlantic region through the middle part of the workweek. A potent cold front approaches by Thursday, bringing the next threat for severe weather. High pressure builds back in by late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure will continue to extend from the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through tonight while upper-level high pressure remains overhead. Warm conditions are expected tonight, but dewpoints will be mainly in the 60s. Therefore, it will feel humid, but not oppressively humid. Patchy fog is expected in the river valleys and sheltered valleys, primarily west of the Blue Ridge Mountains late. However, fog should not be widespread due to lower dewpoints and a higher temp/dewpoint depression to start early this evening. Min temps tonight will be in the 60s for most areas (mid to upper 50s in the mountains and lower 70s in downtown Washington and Baltimore. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Big story for the start of the short term will be the temperatures. Will likely see highs getting into the low to mid 90s across most areas aside from the mountains. The hot spots may be just east of the mountain due to any downsloping winds that make it in the area as high pressure begins to move away from being overhead. Heat indices would be an issue headline wise but dewpoints will only be in the low to mid 60s, thus heat indices will be hovering around the actual air temperature throughout the day. As the high continues to move further away, there may be a window of opportunity for a few showers to form in the southern half of the CWA later tomorrow afternoon. The latest CAMs have at least a couple of showers possible with the HRRR acting the most bullish with maybe a few rumbles of thunder mixed in. HREF pings some updraft formation around 21z for portions of central VA and NE MD near the Mason-Dixon line over the course of about 3-4 hours. Don`t see much concern for anything severe to occur given the convective parameters but could see a few rumbles of thunder for areas east of the Blue Ridge. By Wednesday, some showers and storms may begin to encompass portions of the area ahead of the approaching cold front from the NW. Guidance has continued to hint at portions of north-central and north-east MD seeing some development in the early afternoon hours. SPC has a D3 MRGL just over into our area across the Mason-Dixon line with General Thunder elsewhere. A few damaging wind gusts are possible with this system but confidence remains low with respect to timing and coverage given the trend over the last several days with this system. Will likely be the start of a busy two days as a strong, potent cold front approaches from the NW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A strong cold front will dive southeastward from the Lower Great Lakes, across the eastern Ohio Valley and into the mid-Atlantic region Thursday into Thursday night. A large amount of instability expected ahead of the front. Mid and upper level energy will be joined by a strong jet aloft to set the stage for potential strong or damaging thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. SPC currently has the eastern three-quarters of our region in a 15% threat for severe weather. There are timing issues once again as to when the strongest thunderstorms develop and move through the region. The GFS is 12 to 18 hours faster than both the NAM and EURO deterministic models. The GFS has the main event from mid-morning through late afternoon Thursday. The NAM and EURO have it mid- afternoon through about midnight. Nonetheless, whichever model you believe, the instability ahead of the front and the lift from the surface front, mid-level energy and jet aloft could cause for an active Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be a couple degrees above average, reaching the middle 80s with humid conditions. As convection tapers and ends overnight Thursday into Friday morning, high pressure will build into the region and stay in place for most of the upcoming weekend. Dry conditions and calmer conditions will prevail. The high could shift offshore on Sunday to allow for quick but light return flow from the south. Temperatures may be near 80 on Friday and Saturday with lower humidity. Highs on Sunday should reach the lower 80s. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected for terminals most of the time through early Wednesday. May see some patchy fog for the western-most terminals (MRB, CHO) tonight and into early Tuesday morning. A brief shower or rumble of thunder may impact CHO tomorrow afternoon but it will be very brief in nature should it occur. Chance for thunderstorms across the terminals increases by late Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front expected to pass on Thursday. VFR conditions expected through midday Thursday, before developing strong convection takes shape through Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. MVFR conditions to perhaps IFR conditions possible due to lower cigs and heavy bursts of rain. VFR conditions return later Thursday night through Sunday. Winds southwest 5 to 10 knots Thursday; much gustier in strong thunderstorms. Winds becoming northwest 10 knots Thursday night into Friday. Winds variable to northeast 5 knots Friday night. && .MARINE... A southerly flow will channel up the middle portion of the Bay and extreme lower Tidal Potomac River through late this evening. An SCA is in effect for these areas. However, the gradient should weaken overnight and winds will diminish to below SCA criteria. Aside from that, winds should remain below hazard criteria through Wednesday. A few showers and thunderstorms may cross portions of the waters Wednesday afternoon and evening. The only marine hazards at this time for Thursday into Thursday evening would be for possible Special Marine Warnings due to convection. Otherwise, no marine hazards expected late Thursday night through Friday night. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ531>534- 537-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADM NEAR TERM...BJL/ADM SHORT TERM...ADM LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...BJL/KLW/ADM MARINE...BJL/KLW/ADM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
802 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON GOING THIS AFTERNOON... Our "main event" is starting to get going with storms near the MN/SD border at 3pm. This is a rare, high- end environment that will be capable of producing a severe weather outbreak across the MPX forecast area. The first concern is the potential for a few supercells to develop in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front. The WoFS has picked up a on these supercells forming over northwest IA/southwest MN and moving northeast into central MN by 21Z. This potential will be monitored closely as they`d be capable of producing all severe hazards including tornadoes. However, recent trends from the WoFS has been to back down on the intensity of these supercells, instead showing a severe QLCS coming out of SD. The storms that form along the cold front will be capable of producing all severe hazards too. This will track into eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin later this evening. Storm mode is expected to transition from embedded supercells along the cold front to a QLCS- like linear set up. The LLJ will enhance low level shear this evening across western WI. This is concerning as it could promote an environment capable of a QLCS tornado threat this evening/early tonight. Areas in the warm sector continue to recover with temperatures warming back into the low/mid 80s. The mid level clouds have likely helped our dew points stay in the mid to upper 60s across southern MN, with less mixing due to stubborn cloud cover. This has kept our LCLs on the lower side and if this trend continues, would be more favorable for potential tornado development. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8.0C/km or greater are located with the area of best CAPE with values of 2500J/kg or greater. KMPX VAD profile shows a highly sheared environment present with 25+ kts of 0-1km shear and 300+ m2/s2 0-1km storm relative helicity. These storms will be moving quickly with storm motions likely 60s kts or greater so it will be important to plan ahead and act quickly after receiving any severe or tornado warnings this afternoon. Once again, this environment has analogs to some of historical, higher-end severe weather outbreaks across the Upper Midwest. Final concern for this evening, behind the severe threat, is a threat for widespread severe/damaging wind over southwest MN. This is a sting jet setup within the dryslot that will come in to the south of the surface low. This is over Nebraska now, where we have seen the occasional 50-60 mph wind gust. This is only expected to intensify between 00z and 06z over southwest MN, the RAP showing h85 winds increasing to nearly 80 kts. The big question is can we mix any of this down to the surface. Forecast soundings for RWF say no, but several CAMs do and they show the potential for a swath of 50-70 mph winds over southwest MN. This is something we`ll watch closely as we may need to transition the Tornado Watch to a High Wind Warning. The upper level low that brought the severe weather to the area will remain mostly stationary in south central Canada through the week. A cold front Thursday night may spark a few showers with the models showing the best chance for any measurable precipitation to be in west central Wisconsin. A better chance for some measurable precipitation comes this weekend with a boundary getting hung up somewhere in the vicinity of the Iowa/Minnesota border on Saturday, and models are in pretty good agreement with an overrunning precipitation type of event affecting southern Minnesota. Late in the period the upper low in southern Canada elongates and starts to depart eastward and a trough may slide into the area and offer another chance for showers on Monday. The biggest change for in the long term will be the temperatures. Highs each day will be in the 60s and 70s, with lows each morning in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Main line of CB/TS moving thru eastern MN, generally impacting KMSP/KMKT and the WI TAF sites. This may reduce those sites to IFR due to visibility. Strong winds will persist at all TAF sites, especially in southern MN, through the rest of the overnight hours, and even include periods of LLWS. Behind the departing cold front, strong subsidence with residual low level moisture will produce MVFR ceilings for much of the day Tuesday before conditions improve Tuesday night. KMSP...Strong thunderstorms to move across MSP during the early part of the TAF period, potentially producing IFR conditions along with strong wind shifts which may force runway use issues. LLWS issues to persist overnight before abating Tuesday morning. Winds will then veer to SW and NW tomorrow through tomorrow night. MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out tomorrow but have held conditions at VFR at this time. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts. Thu...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts. Fri...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-Brown- Faribault-Freeborn-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Rice- Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. WI...None. && $$ UPDATE...JPC DISCUSSION...BPH/MPG/CEO AVIATION...JPC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1146 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Through This Evening) Issued at 245 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2022 High clouds drifting north and east across the Upper Great Lakes from convection over MN has limited the insolation that was previously expected this afternoon. As a result, temps thus far have barely reached into the lower 80s across the western interior of the U.P. Temps over the east half have also stayed cool thanks to the mid-high level clouds and cooler moderating southerly flow downwind of Lake Mi. Expect lower to mid 70s highs over the eastern interior the rest of the afternoon with cooler 60s readings along the Lake Mi shore. Adjusted high temps slightly cooler accordingly. Strong mid-level capping as evidenced on NAM and RAP BUFR soundings with several hundred j/kg of CIN will keep conditions dry at least through early evening despite lower to mid 60s dew points across the area. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 325 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the ern U.S. and a trough in the plains and Rockies 00z Tue. There is a shortwave in the northern plains 00z Tue that will head northeast into the upper Great Lakes 00z Wed. This shortwave will have a closed low with it that will move into northern Manitoba and remain there by 00z Fri. Shortwave energy over the Rockies will head east and move into the upper Great Lakes Wed night with more troughing for Thu. Looks like the majority of dynamics will stay to the north and west of the area for tonight and even into Tue. It does look dry for most of tonight with a decent cap remaining over the area. Only low chance pops in the far west and this would look to advect in tonight. Dieing frontal zone tries to come through on Tue and will have some slight chance pops in the afternoon, but again anything that forms would be isolated. Will be quite gusty on Tue. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low over central Canada 12z Fri that remains stationary 12z Sat. This closed low drops southward into south central Canada 12z Sun with troughing in the upper Great Lakes which remains into Mon. Temperatures look to remain below normal for this forecast period and unsettled being underneath the upper level trough. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1146 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2022 IMPACTS: - Thunderstorms possible through Tue 10Z at KIWD - Prolonged LLWS threat through daybreak - Strong southerly winds sustained at 14 to 20 kts with gusts to 32 to 40 kts - LLWS possible again at KCMX Wed 01-03Z. Discussion... VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period, but winds will be the main threat throughout the period as a LLJ moves through early this morning ahead of an approaching frontal system. And, strong diurnal mixing later today will accelerate winds to 30 to 40 kts at the surface. Look for possible LLWS again Wed 01-03Z at KCMX. Also, thunderstorms will still be possible at KIWD over the next several hours, but the overall trend has been west of KIWD. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 325 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2022 South winds of 15 to 25 knots will continue through tonight and then go to the southwest up to 30 knots on Tue into Tue evening. Some of the higher platforms in western Lake Superior could see a few gale force gusts on Tue into Tue evening, but this would be Rock of Ages and Devils Island. A cold front swings through the area Tuesday night and Wednesday, allowing the winds to finally relax below 15 knots by late Wednesday afternoon. The unsettled weather will also come to an end, with dry conditions expected from Wednesday through Saturday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Voss LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...07
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
903 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure centered off the Southeast coast will persist and strengthen through mid-week. A cold front will slowly approach from the north and northwest on Thursday and move into the area on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 903 PM Monday... This evening`s surface analysis showed a 1020 mb high offshore of NC. The sea breeze is just as evident as it was last night, both on radar and satellite. It currently extends northeast to southwest from near Rocky Mount, southwest into eastern Wake County and near Southern Pines to Wadesboro. A gust to 16-18 kt occurred at FAY/MEB behind the boundary, along with a few towering cu that only produced an isolated shower or two. The boundary will continue to lift north and west into the Piedmont over the next few hours, becoming diffuse with time. Ongoing convection over GA/northern FL is associated with a mid to upper-level trough over southern GA/northern FL. This convection should remain well south and west of our area overnight as a 588 dam ridge stays anchored over the Appalachians. Overnight lows were largely unchanged from the previous forecast, though lowered slightly in the favored cool spots to capture trends from last night`s lows. With dissipating cumulus field, clear skies should yield lows in the middle 60s, with lower 60s across the far northern/northeast Piedmont and usual cold spots in Chatham/Randolph Counties. The region of rich surface moisture, characterized by mid to upper 60s dewpoints, remains present across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain, even some low 70s in Halifax. This region is most favored for patchy fog overnight and around daybreak Tue. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Monday... Surface high pressure centered just off the Carolina coast and a ridge of high pressure aloft will result in a subsident pattern with above average temperatures and dry weather. An area of early morning fog and stratus across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain will give way to mostly sunny skies by mid to late morning. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds will once again develop although they will be a little bit more scattered than today. Low level thicknesses will be a few meters higher tomorrow than today and should yield highs a couple of degrees warmer, in the 88 to 93 range. Dewpoints won`t be high enough to crank up the heat index too much but successive days of hot weather, caution should still be exercised, especially for anyone that must work outdoors and those without access to air conditioning. As dew points climb a bit, a muggy night is expected on Tuesday night with lows in the mid 60s to near 70. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 203 PM Monday... The large ridge extending from TX northeastward to the Mid Atlantic region will provide another dry and hot day Wednesday (highs well into the 90s)...before the ridge begins to weaken and slip south on Thursday thanks to the next short wave trough moving southeast across the Great Lakes region. Rain chances will begin increasing late in the day Thursday and esp Thursday night as the cold front assoc with the upper trough axis approaches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the first half of Friday until the front moves through during the afternoon or evening. In the meantime, highs on Thursday will once again be well into the 90s given the persistence and prefrontal airmass. But the combination of rain showers, clouds, and eventually a post-frontal airmass, highs Friday will be cooler... lower to middle 80s, with the exception of near 90 across our far southeast zones where the fropa and post-frontal airmass will be delayed. This weekend looks to be mainly dry and seasonable temps with high pressure passing by to our north. Otherwise, still keeping an eye on the tropics to our south, esp given the system that the ECMWF, and to a lesser extent the GFS, are featuring well off the Southeast Coast. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 725 PM Monday... There is high confidence in VFR conditions to start the TAF period. Diurnal cumulus between 5000-7000 feet will diminish after sunset, giving way to mostly clear skies and light winds with high pressure offshore. The sea-breeze has pushed west into the Sandhills and Coastal Plain, including FAY. South-southeast winds at FAY should give way to light and variable winds overnight. Little change was made to the forecast early Tue, with the potential still there for MVFR to IFR-LIFR fog, most favored at FAY/RWI. The last few runs of the high-resolution HRRR model have shifted the fog threat mostly at FAY across the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. However, a moisture rich surface layer still exist at RWI for fog to reach this terminal. GSO/INT/RDU should stay VFR through the period. Fog at FAY/RWI will lift by 13-14Z. All terminals will see west-southwest winds Tue afternoon around 5-6 kt with afternoon scattered cumulus development in the 5000-7000 ft layer. Outlook: Early morning sub-VFR fog/stratus will again be possible Wed morning over the eastern TAF sites. An approaching cold front late in the work week will bring a chance of showers and storms late Thu and Fri. VFR conditions should return on Sat. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...Kren SHORT TERM...Blaes LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...Kren