Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/31/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle
VFR conditions will continue at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Wednesday. South to southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts near
35 knots will diminish to around 10 to 20 knots after 01Z to 03Z
Tuesday. A cold front will shift the winds to the north 10 to 20
knots at the Guymon and Dalhart TAF sites after 12Z to 14Z Tuesday
and then at the Amarillo TAF site after 21Z to 23Z Tuesday.
Schneider
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 253 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022/
SHORT TERM...
A very broad elongated cyclonic flow is depicted from northern
NV across the Rockies over to western NE, per GOES-16 water vapor
analysis. A mid to upper level trough base is running from
southern CA through AZ, NM northeast through the FA. H5 winds are
progged to currently be 70 to 80 kts over the OK Panhandle and
portions of the northwestern TX Panhandle. Because of this upper
level trough partially digging into the area suppressing the high
pressure that brought triple digit, record breaking highs across
the combined Panhandles just two days ago. This afternoon highs
are only supposed to be in the mid 80s to the northwest to the
lower 90s elsewhere. The exception being the far southeast TX
Panhandle and areas off the caprock getting to the mid to upper
90s.
For this afternoon southwest winds will be breezy in the 15 to 25
mph range with gusts up to 35 mph. Per Bufkit soundings winds
aloft in the lower atmosphere are not quite as high as yesterday
and winds will only be mixing to H7-H6 layer. Dewpoints will be in
the teens to 20s for the combined Panhandles this afternoon as a
dryline sets up just to the east. The dryline is progged to
run from the Midland area northeast around Childress, possibly
just to the east of there, and continue north-northeast through
portions of western Oklahoma. Going into the evening mainly after
9 PM a weak surface low forms over eastern portions of NM and
winds become fairly weak on the dry side of the dryline. This will
lead to the dryline retreating back into the FA bringing 60
degree dewpoints into the eastern third of the TX Panhandle. Maybe
even into portions far southeastern Beaver County as well. This
surface low will track northeast along the dryline and a surface
cold front will be moving south at the same time. The front is
expected to bring north winds into the OK Panhandle around
midnight and stall out around the northern to possibly central TX
Panhandle through the rest of the overnight hours. The front may
possibly spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the far
eastern Oklahoma Panhandle. Confidence at this time is not very
high. Only have a small portion up against northwest OK with 10
percent PoPs.
Hoffeditz
Fire Weather...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to prevail through
this afternoon for the western to central combined Panhandles. RH
values are expected to fall into the single digits once again.
Higher winds will be located in the western OK Panhandle to
northwest TX Panhandle where sustained winds could get to around
30-35 mph elsewhere winds are expected to be closer to the 15 to
30 mph range. Dallam County and Cimarron County may see some
RFTIs around 7 to 8 while areas further south see RFTI values as
high as 5 to 6. A cold front will eventually shift the winds to
the north mainly for the OK Panhandle and northwest TX Panhandle
between 9PM CDT and midnight tonight. Guidance does have the front
stalling leaving much of the southern TX Panhandle in
southwesterly to westerly winds until closer to sunrise. Winds are
not expected to be too crazy overnight (as far as speeds go) with
the front. Mainly only topping out around 15 to 20 mph. Today
should be the last day of critical fire weather conditions for at
least the next few days.
Hoffeditz
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...
Bottom Line Up Top: Strong to severe thunderstorms and flooding
concerns will increase starting Tuesday late afternoon through
Wednesday. However, there is some uncertainty with where a
convectively augmented cold front may stall tomorrow and this
will affect where the higher level severe threat will end up
tomorrow evening. This front is expected to retreat some Tuesday
night before pushing back down through the area by late Wednesday.
Areas north of the front will see increased cloud cover and some
chances for elevated storms chances each day, but the higher
severe chances will be along and south of the boundary.
Details: A broad upper level trough with embedded shortwaves will
continue to spin over a large portion of the northwest and north-
central CONUS resulting in a belt of southwesterlies over the
southern plains. The main shortwave is currently lifting up across
the NE/SD region as the second weaker shortwave moves over
portions of UT and NV. The second shortwave is progged to
strengthen as it moves across the Colorado Rocky Mountains while
high pressure builds over southern TX. The net result will be a
stronger 500mb jet streak extending towards the upper midwest. The
right entrance region of this jet streak will provide some lift
across the Panhandles Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday until the
upper flow becomes more zonal as the shortwave departs to the
northeast.
At the surface, a cold front currently sampled from northeast CO
to south central SD will dive south, augmented by outflow from
ongoing showers and storms in those areas. A lee surface low is
also expected to strengthen in eastern NM before shifting over the
north central Panhandles tonight into early Tuesday morning. This
low will play a part in determining where the cold front will
stall. The latest HRRR and RAP stall the front near Canyon to
Canadian (which is more in line with NAM/NAMNest) while CMC, EC
and GFS stall the front a county or two further south. This will
determine where the greatest area of concern for a few supercells
capable of all hazards may end up Tuesday afternoon into late
Tuesday evening. Additional elevated strong storms may develop
overnight behind the cold front, but these would pose more of a
hail and heavy rain threat due to the elevated nature.
In the scenario that the northern position for the frontal
position verifies, more of the Panhandles would stay in the
warm/moist sector with a pseudo triple point setting up in the
central or east central Texas Panhandle where cold front and
dryline intersect. Dew point values are progged to increase into
the low to mid 60s in the moist sector as low level winds back to
southeast or even easterly near the boundary late Tuesday. This
will support a narrow corridor of enhanced low level SRH, with
0-1km values possibly exceeding 200 m^2/s^2 during the late
evening as a nocturnal low level jet ramps up. Deep layer
effective shear of 45 to 55 knots will also be noted, mainly due
to the veering wind profiles with modestly strong southwesterlies
aloft. Finally, as the low level moisture increases, lapse rates
remain steep enough for large MLCAPE possibly upwards of 2000 to
3000 J/kg south of the front and east of the dryline. Any storms
that develop near the front and move into the moist sector could
quickly become supercells capable of very large hail, damaging
winds, and possibly a few tornadoes. This threat may actually peak
after dark with a surge of low level moisture which could maintain
surface based storms. The main failure modes include 1) the front
ends up too far south and 2) storms don`t form until later in the
evening and quickly become elevated.
A second round of storms may form behind the front overnight in
response to increase isentropic lift as moisture around 700mb
surges north. These storms would pose more of a hail threat,
however lapse rates also start becoming more moist adiabatic which
limits CAPE, so severe hail may be limited. Some NAM sounding
profiles suggest MUCAPE could stay large overnight in which case
severe hail would be more probable. The wind and tornado threat
should diminish substantially after around 06z. PWATs will be
increasing to 90th percentile values or higher, so any areas that
see multiple rounds of storms could see some flooding issues. Some
training of storms near the cold front is also possible.
The latest guidance is starting to favor a lot of stratus in the
area Wednesday and Thursday as the front dives back down, so any
thunderstorms would remain elevated. Expect below normal high
temperatures. Flow aloft will become more westerly to
northwesterly, and a few minor shortwaves could trigger some
periods of isolated convection. Drizzle may be possible during
this period given the near saturated conditions at the surface.
Ward
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Armstrong-
Carson-Dallam-Deaf Smith-Hansford-Hartley-Hutchinson-Moore-
Oldham-Palo Duro Canyon-Potter-Randall-Sherman.
OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Cimarron-Texas.
&&
$$
11/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
650 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
.DISCUSSION...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
Key Messages:
- Tonight: Severe Risk - mostly west of the Mississippi River
- Wind Advisory west of the Mississippi into the evening
- Tue Storm Chances: shifting eastward
- Cooler Temps Return
- Late Week Rain Chances
* TONIGHT: Strong, Severe Storm Risk - Mainly West Of Mississippi
Sharpening upper level trough/closed low lifting north/northeast
across the northern plains this afternoon a +100 kt 300 mb jet
pushes north across MN. Strong 50 kt 850 mb jet takes the same path,
also serving to push low level moisture ahead of associated dry
line/cold front. MUCAPE pool of 2-3K J/kg building across MN. 60-70
kts of 0-6 km shear coincide with the instability axis with 40 kts
in 0-3 km and 30+ 0-1km. Widespread severe storms expected for
central/northern MN as a result.
South of there, meso models in good agreement with sparking
convection along a leading dry line/cold front as the afternoon
wears on, moving east across southern MN/IA, but not reaching SE
MN/NE IA until shortly after 00z. Instability not as strong as to
the west, but 1000-1500+ J/kg MUCAPE to play with and 50-60 kts 0-6km
shear (roughly 40kt 1-7km). RAP soundings suggest a 1-3 hour where
storms could be sfc based, but near sfc CIN increasing by 03z,
likely making any storm elevated. There will be a large hail,
damaging wind (1000 J/kg DCAPE) and isolated tor risk for SE MN/NE
IA for this evening, weakening/transitioning to elevated hail and
potentially wind as the evening wears on/storms shift east.
Some mixed signals in the meso models on whether the line would be
continuous or broken. A few only unzip along the front to the MN/IA
border, which would potentially carry this convection just north-
west of the local area (effectively keeping any severe risk away).
This likely stems from the CAP remaining stronger in the south.
Eventually convection gets going along the southern flank, with a
piece of upper level energy and branch of the low level jet playing
roles. Much of this convection could hold south of I-90. Instability
decreasing but still good shear for storm development. Some stronger
storm potential and can`t rule out a few severe storms - but the
threat would be lesser compared to early this evening.
Some complexity to how this plays out locally and close monitoring
of development/environment will be needed to refine storm/severe
threat areas. Anticipate some adjustments.
* WINDY: continues into tonight
Even with the loss off daytime mixing, its going to stay windy
tonight as tight sfc pressure gradient (associated with sfc low
lifting north/northeast across the northern plains) persists.
Sustained winds in the lower 20 mph with gusts still pushing north
of 30 mph from time to time expected for SE MN/NE IA. Will likely be
able to let the Wind Advisory for these locations expire at 8 pm for
the mid 40s gusts.
* TUE STORM CHANCES: shifting east, could miss local area
Upper level trough/closed low continues to lift northeast into
southern Canada while an associated cold front hangs roughly from
southeast WI southwestwards through northern MO at 00z Wed.
Overnight convection across IA likely still ongoing by daybreak Tue,
moving northeast along the front. Should be in a weakening state for
the morning, with nocturnal cap keeping any storms elevated.
Heating/afternoon destabilization look to push MUCAPES upwards of
2500 J/kg, which should be enough to break cap by mid/late
afternoon. Expect further convection to develop around the front,
with wind shear aiding/supporting upscale strong/severe potential.
Positioning of the front/impacts of the morning convection aren`t
entirely clear, but latest runs of meso/CAMS models favor keeping
the strong-severe storms just to the east/southeast of the local
area. Too close to say "no" (southwest WI just on the fringe), but
higher risk generally from southeast IA into southeast WI.
* COOLER: say goodbye to the summer heat/humidity
Much cooler, drier air pushes in post the passing upper level
trough/cold front Tue night...and looks to settle in for the rest of
the week with generally zonal/northwest flow a loft. Temps will take
a tumble as the bulk of the EC ensemble members (75%) keep highs at
or below the early June normals. GEFS concurs...with both suggesting
upper 60s to lower 70s into early next week. Comfortable start to
the summer month, but conditions more typical of early May rather
than June.
* RAIN CHANCES: late week-weekend potential
With the transition to quicker, mostly zonal-northwest flow a loft,
a few shortwave troughs are progged to spin across the region as
starting as soon as Thu night...with the possibility for more
ripples/rain chances through the weekend. Instability looks meager at
this time and no real tap into gulf moisture. Severe, heavy rain
threat looks low as a result.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
South to southeast winds will not be quite as strong heading into
tonight, but will still remain gusty through this TAF period with
a respectable pressure gradient in place. These gusty surface winds
will mitigate concerns for low level wind shear overnight as a
modest low level jet passes overhead. Winds will turn more
southwesterly on Tuesday as a cold front approaches.
Other aviation concern tonight will be potential for a broken line
of showers/storms later this evening into early Tuesday morning.
Confidence still remains on the lower side owing to sparse
development thus far over central Iowa. However, hi-res models
still suggest expanding convective development over the next few
hours, likely pushing into RST after 02-03Z. Storms would weaken
as they progress eastward towards LSE by late evening. Dry
conditions are then on tap for both TAF sites once this potential
line of convection exits early Tuesday morning.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ008>010-018-019-
029.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION...Kurz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
719 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the region through mid-week with above
normal temperatures. A few afternoon thunderstorms mainly in the
southeast Midlands and CSRA next couple of days associated with
a sea breeze. A cold front is expected to move through the
region Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Slightly
cooler temperatures behind the front for next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Today unfolded pretty much as expected with convection
associated with a shortwave moving inland through GA and
impacting the eastern Midlands and CSRA with scattered storms.
Regional radar showing convection waning with the loss of
heating and having become outflow dominated. Temperatures have
dropped well into the 70s across the CSRA and southern Midlands
from the rain and outflows.
Expect debris clouds to persist across the southern half of the
forecast area this evening with clearing across the north.
Persistent easterly flow off the Atlantic will keep low level
moisture high and expect another repeat of stratus/fog
development along the Coastal Plain then migrate further inland
over our area during the predawn hours. Overnight lows expected
to be near normal in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday and Tuesday night...Surface ridge over the area and
moisture appears more limited. The precipitable water is
expected to be around 1 inch in the central Midlands and maybe
1.4 inches in the extreme southeast Midlands and CSRA with
moisture shallow. Upper ridge axis appears to be west of the
area but strong subsidence expected and soundings suggest a
stronger mid level cap. Lowered pops slightly from previous
forecast and confined to the extreme southeast Midlands/CSRA
near any possible sea breeze activity in the afternoon. Should
be a little warmer with general subsidence with highs in the low
90s. Lows near 70.
Wednesday and Wednesday night...Upper level ridge axis
retrogrades a bit but air mass may be a little drier and
subsidence appears stronger with mid level capping. Surface
ridge dominating and no pops. Resulting warmer temps into the
mid 90s with full insolation in the afternoon. Lows again around
70.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Center of the ridge moves further southwest Thursday as a low
amplitude upper trough moves east from the north central Plains.
This will drive a weak cold front toward the area. Still some
timing issues with front but it may move into the area earlier
Thursday night into Friday. The front may stall or become
diffuse near the area Friday so continued chance pops. Some
model suggestion moisture may be limited with the front. The
moisture appears to focus in the coastal plain by Saturday so
lower pops over the weekend but can`t rule out a few
isolated/widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the
weekend into early next week. Temperatures will be above normal
early/pre-frontal then normal over the weekend with ensembles
showing below normal upper level heights over the southeast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The overall setup for tonight`s weather will be similar to the
previous night. Shallow moisture and SE flow will work to
promote low stratus development over the region. The HRRR
verified well last night and shows widespread ceiling
restrictions again tonight, increasing confidence. Therefore we
favored a persistence forecast with early morning IFR/LIFR
ceilings at all TAF sites. Ceilings should be the primary threat
given a 10 to 15 kt LLJ but dense fog may also develop at OGB,
DNL and AGS. We held onto restrictions a little longer than the
models similar to what verified on the previous day. Tuesday,
expect light SE winds and another round of isolated showers and
storms in the afternoon.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon
convection may bring restrictions through mid-week. Early
morning fog also possible. A front late this week may bring more
widespread restrictions.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1008 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
QLCS continues to propagate northeastward across the Minnesota
Arrowhead, western Lake Superior, and northwest Wisconsin. While
bowing segments are noted on radar, particularly along the North
Shore and over northeast St. Louis County, the loss of low-level
instability seems to have curtailed the severe weather risk. KDLH
outbound velocities are still in the 45 to 55 knot range with the
bowing segment near Silver Bay. However, surface obs haven`t
registered a gust higher than around 30 knots. Think the stable
layer along the shoreline and inland is cushioning the surface
from the stronger winds aloft. There may be a sporadic surface
gust of 40 to 50 knots over northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin, so have left WS295 in effect ahead of the line.
Overall, think the severe weather risk will continue to decrease
over the next several hours.
MESOSCALE UPDATE Issued at 902 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
Severe weather threat continues for WT293 and WS295. KDLH VAD
profile showed a large cyclonic curvature in the lowest 1km as of
01Z. QLCS stretched from near Dryden, ON to near Embarrass, to
Floodwood, to Duluth to Danbury, WI at 0145Z. Bowing segments with
enhanced damaging wind potential of 60 to 80 mph is the main
threat at this time. Embedded QLCS tornadoes are possible with
considerable 0-3 km bulk shear of 45 to 55 knots. Some of those
tornadoes may be strong. Environment is becoming more favorable
for severe storms to continue into the Minnesota Arrowhead and
northwest Wisconsin. RAP mesoanalysis suggests 0-3 km MLCAPE will
decrease rapidly over the next 2 to 3 hours and the Warn-on-
Forecast system agrees with that assessment.
Of additional concern over the next several hours is a potential
for additional storm development over central Minnesota as the
cold front moves in. Very strong low-level jet will result in a
damaging wind threat with any storms which develop. MUCAPE is
forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg in that area, so the risk is
conditional on one or two storms tapping into the available
instability and being able to sustain themselves instead of being
sheared apart.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
Summary: Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and tonight. A few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging
winds of 60 to 80 mph, large hail from quarter to baseball size,
and torrential rainfall which may lead to flash flooding are all
possible. Showers and non-severe storms will linger on Tuesday
before drier and quieter weather arrives by Wednesday.
A complex weather pattern was found over the Upper Midwest this
afternoon. At 20Z, a surface low was centered near Lake of the
Woods with a quasi-stationary front over northern Minnesota,
northern Lake Superior, and eastern Upper Michigan. A second
surface low was centered near Sioux Falls with a warm front which
extended northeast through Willmar to near St. Cloud, MN to Rice
Lake, WI. A quasi-stationary front stretched from near the
northern surface low, down the eastern Dakotas, and into eastern
Nebraska and will move eastward as a cold front tonight. The warm
front was surging northward quickly, as it was analyzed around 100
miles farther south over southern Minnesota at 18Z. The warm
sector south of the warm front was uncapped with MLCAPE of 2000 to
more than 2500 J/kg with effective bulk shear of 40 to 80 knots,
0-3 km bulk shear of 45 to 55 knots, and large curved hodographs.
Supercells with very large hail, damaging wind gusts to 80 mph,
and a few strong tornadoes are possible south of the warm front.
That warm front will continue to surge north into central
Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin by early evening. The greatest
tornado threat will be over central and west-central Minnesota
through this evening, which will include areas south of a line
from Cass Lake to Grand Rapids, to Mora, including Brainerd,
Aitkin, Longville, and McGregor. The thunderstorms are expected to
grow upscale this evening and transition to a QLCS wind and
tornado threat. The damaging wind and tornado threat will persist
overnight and include all of northern Minnesota and much of
northwest Wisconsin. Torrential rainfall may lead to flash
flooding, particularly late tonight as the western edge of the
storm complex becomes oriented parallel to the cold front.
Low pressure will gradually push eastward on Tuesday and will
keep showers and thunderstorms in the picture through the day.
Storms are expected to be non-severe. A quieter weather pattern
emerges Wednesday and beyond. While there are showers and storms
possible in the extended, widespread or organized precipitation is
not anticipated until next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
Thunderstorms will move through the terminals this evening.
Strong wind gusts of 50 to 60 knots, hail, and low visibility are
expected as the storms move through. Fog and low stratus may
develop behind the line and continue into the night. Showers and
storms will be possible again Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for portions of western
Lake Superior until around 10 PM. Visibility will be variable and
will be less than 1/2 nautical mile at times. As a warm front
lifts north across western Lake Superior, think fog will be pushed
inland and dissipate.
Rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight. Wind gusts of 35 to
60 knots are possible with the strongest storms. Hail larger than
penny-size, and torrential rainfall with visibility less 1/2 mile
are likely as well. Northeast winds will back southeasterly
tonight and may turn southwesterly behind the storms. Sustained
winds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots are possible. We
have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore waters
through 7 AM Wednesday. Some of the high-resolution forecast
models feature gale-force gusts of 35 to 40 knots. These models
have been persistently too strong with the wind gusts now that
lake temperatures are much colder than the air temperatures, so I
am skeptical winds that strong will develop. If they do develop,
some or all of the areas in the Small Craft Advisory will need to
be upgraded to a Gale Warning.
Winds and waves will settle on Wednesday as high pressure builds
into the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 58 64 45 64 / 90 50 10 0
INL 54 61 41 61 / 100 90 30 0
BRD 56 61 45 65 / 90 60 10 0
HYR 62 73 45 66 / 100 30 10 0
ASX 63 75 46 65 / 100 30 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121-140>148-
150.
Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ142>145.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE UPDATE...Huyck
DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...Huyck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
332 PM PDT Mon May 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool northwest breeze continues today, although a degree or two
warmer than yesterday. The warming trend continues Tuesday and
Wednesday. Afternoon highs Wednesday and Thursday will be several
degrees above normal. A return to near normal afternoon highs
looks likely this weekend as the ridge of high pressure weakens.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Northwesterly flow continues this afternoon, keeping temperatures
cooler than normal. Afternoon highs will rise a degree or two from
yesterday as a ridge of high pressure builds in the Eastern
Pacific. Northwesterly winds are favored to pick up again
through and just below the mountain passes in Kern County as shown
by HRRR model, so a Wind Advisory will go into effect there
starting at 3 PM lasting through 3 AM Tuesday. Afternoon highs are
expected to jump several degrees as high pressure builds over
Central California. NBM guidance is showing highs in the mid to
upper 80s across the San Joaquin Valley by tomorrow afternoon. The
warming trend will continue into Wednesday as the ridge axis
shifts east, putting it directly overhead. Highs on Wednesday are
expected to be in the mid 90s across the valley and desert areas.
Afternoon highs remain warm across the region on Thursday, but may
come back down a degree or two in Merced county as the ridge of
high pressure begins to weaken. The cooling trend continues Friday
and Saturday as a trough of low pressure meanders around the
Pacific Northwest and flattens the ridge. We may see breezy
conditions across the valley and desert areas on Friday and
Saturday due to onshore flow. Afternoon highs on Saturday will
likely retreat back to the mid to upper 80s due to the flow
pattern. We may also get a chance of a shower or two near YNP as
the upslope flow pattern and some lift give the area some
instabilyt in the afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the Central California
interior for at least the next 24 hours. Local surface wind gusts
of 35 to 45 knots will be possible across the eastern slopes of
the Kern County mountains from 22Z Monday until 10Z Tuesday.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338.
&&
$$
public...Bollenbacher
aviation....Bollenbacher
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
Main challenge/concern is convective/severe potential the next
couple of days and also where locally heavy rain may fall. At
early afternoon, dry-line extended from east of KSLN to west of
KICT. With some exceptions, general short term models like
HRRR/earlier RAP, develop convection along the dry-line(DL)/cold
frontal merger in northeast Kansas southward along the DL toward
KICT in the 22-00z time frame. The RAP seems to have a better
grasp of short term dew points and resulting instability where
MLCape values of 2500-3000 j/kg should reside near peak heating in
the presence of 55-60 kts bulk shear. While better chances may
reside just northeast of the forecast area, chc20-40 PoPs remain
warranted along/just west of the turnpike corridor thru early this
evening. Primary severe hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds, though initial storms may have some tornado risk. That
said, chances look to ramp up a bit more later in the
evening/overnight across central Kansas, where cold front will
overtake the retreating DL. While becoming more elevated in
nature, increasing elevated moisture flux in the presence of
moderate instability should result in better convective coverage
with a few strong storms and some back-building into the veering
low level jet possible across central Kansas.
Main challenge later Tuesday is position of the effective cold
front which may become quasi-stationary for a time from east
central into south central Kansas. While diurnal heating in the
warm sector should yield better instability in excess of 3000 j/kg
of MLCape, bulk shear will not be as great, though the combo
sufficient for organized severe convection. The late morning RAP
was preferred over the NAM and GFS in depicting QPF into Tuesday
night, as the NAM seemed too far north and GFS too far south. This
would place potential for heavy rainfall in southern Kansas just
to the north of the effective frontal boundary, where the better
PWAT, elevated instability and elevated moisture flux convergence
look to reside Tuesday evening/night. The potential for elevated
showers and storms will continue through Wednesday with much
cooler temperatures across the area.
In short term, winds have subsided east of the DL and will allow
Wind Advisory to expire at 4 pm.
Darmofal
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
Modest westerly flow aloft will prevail across mid-America through
the weekend with weak perturbations emanating of the front range
across the area. The influence of a stronger trof and upper low
off the Pacific coast may result in gradual height falls over the
Rockies by early next week. Temperatures look to average closer to
seasonal climo with rather low confidence on precip/convective
chances thru these periods though will maintain rather low PoPs
for now.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
Scattered strong to severe storms will affect south central Kansas
and the KICT terminal early this evening. A cold front will merge
with a dry line across central Kansas tonight with scattered
storms expected to develop further north across portions of
central Kansas. Low level wind shear will occur before the cold
frontal passage early tonight. Besides a wind shift, patchy MVFR
cigs are expected Tuesday morning across portions of south central
and southeast Kansas.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 68 82 60 66 / 30 50 70 70
Hutchinson 63 80 58 64 / 40 30 60 60
Newton 66 79 59 65 / 40 40 60 60
ElDorado 69 82 60 66 / 30 60 80 70
Winfield-KWLD 71 86 63 69 / 20 60 80 70
Russell 55 81 53 63 / 20 10 30 60
Great Bend 57 80 54 62 / 20 10 40 60
Salina 61 81 56 65 / 60 20 40 60
McPherson 62 79 57 64 / 60 30 50 60
Coffeyville 73 86 65 74 / 10 30 80 70
Chanute 72 85 63 70 / 30 50 80 70
Iola 71 83 62 68 / 30 60 80 60
Parsons-KPPF 73 85 64 73 / 20 40 80 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...KED
mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, model guidance
continues to exhibit a southward trend in highest shower coverage,
and accordingly our forecast favors 20-30% chances generally along
and south of Interstate 80. It`s entirely possible our entire area
ends up dry should the frontal boundary slip further south than
model guidance currently indicates.
Thursday through Saturday look decidedly pleasant and open-window
worthy as a surface high pressure system slides into the western
Great Lakes. Low humidity, plenty of sunshine, and highs/lows in the
mid to upper 70s/lower 50s appear to be a good bet with locally
cooler temperatures along the lakeshore.
Forecast confidence lowers considerably from Sunday onward owing to
ensemble differences in the evolution of the upper-level pattern (as
well as any influence of a tropical system that may develop in the
Gulf of Mexico). Applying the "squint" test to ensemble meteograms
supports increasing chances for showers Sunday night and Monday...
though details beyond that will have to wait for later forecast
packages.
Borchardt
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Aviation forecast concerns:
* Strong south winds with gusts 30+ kts early this evening.
* LLWS conditions overnight with south-southwest 2000` AGL winds
around 50 kts.
* Thunderstorm chances increasing Tuesday afternoon and perhaps
more so Tuesday evening for Chicago terminals. Some strong to
severe storms possible.
Deep surface low pressure was over the eastern Dakotas early this
evening, with a broad warm sector across the forecast area.
Sustained surface winds of 15-25 kts and gusts as high as 35 kts
have been observed at our TAF sites recently, and the KLOT VWP
supports this continuing into early evening with 35 kt south winds
between roughly 500` and 1500` AGL. Gusts should ease a bit with
and after sunset as the boundary layer begins to decouple, though
warm temps and mechanical mixing associated with the strong winds
will keep breezy conditions going overnight. Similar to last
night, forecast soundings depict the low level jet increasing to
around 50 kts at the 2000` AGL level and above, presenting LLWS
conditions even with continued surface gusts.
Breezy south-southwest winds will continue on Tuesday, though are
not expected to be quite as strong as today as the surface low
lifts north into western Ontario. Attention turns to shower and
thunderstorm trends for the area, ahead of an approaching cold
front which will trail the departing low pressure system.
Thunderstorm potential looks to be focused Tuesday evening in the
better low level moist axis and confluent/convergent low level
wind field ahead of the front. However, even with somewhat
stronger capping earlier in the day a few scattered showers or
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out as early as late morning or early
afternoon as some high-res CAM guidance suggests. This earlier
timing appears to be associated with a potential small scale short
wave or MCV feature associated with storms developing over
central KS this evening. With higher confidence in better forced
Tuesday evening convection across the terminals have introduced a
tempo in that period, but have included a prob30 for lower
confidence in a period during the afternoon as depicted by the
high- res HRRR and ARW guidance. Some of the storms Tuesday
evening could be strong to severe with hail and strong gusty
surface winds. Surface cold front looks to push across ORD and MDW
at the end of the TAF period, with west and eventually northwest
winds behind the front later Tuesday night.
Ratzer
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...nearshore waters until 7 PM Tuesday.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
900 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to influence the Mid-Atlantic region
through the middle part of the workweek. A potent cold front
approaches by Thursday, bringing the next threat for severe weather.
High pressure builds back in by late week into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure will continue to extend from the Carolinas
into the western Atlantic through tonight while upper-level high
pressure remains overhead. Warm conditions are expected tonight,
but dewpoints will be mainly in the 60s. Therefore, it will feel
humid, but not oppressively humid.
Patchy fog is expected in the river valleys and sheltered
valleys, primarily west of the Blue Ridge Mountains late.
However, fog should not be widespread due to lower dewpoints and
a higher temp/dewpoint depression to start early this evening.
Min temps tonight will be in the 60s for most areas (mid to
upper 50s in the mountains and lower 70s in downtown Washington
and Baltimore.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Big story for the start of the short term will be the temperatures.
Will likely see highs getting into the low to mid 90s across most
areas aside from the mountains. The hot spots may be just east
of the mountain due to any downsloping winds that make it in the
area as high pressure begins to move away from being overhead.
Heat indices would be an issue headline wise but dewpoints will
only be in the low to mid 60s, thus heat indices will be
hovering around the actual air temperature throughout the day.
As the high continues to move further away, there may be a
window of opportunity for a few showers to form in the southern
half of the CWA later tomorrow afternoon. The latest CAMs have
at least a couple of showers possible with the HRRR acting the
most bullish with maybe a few rumbles of thunder mixed in. HREF
pings some updraft formation around 21z for portions of central
VA and NE MD near the Mason-Dixon line over the course of about
3-4 hours. Don`t see much concern for anything severe to occur
given the convective parameters but could see a few rumbles of
thunder for areas east of the Blue Ridge.
By Wednesday, some showers and storms may begin to encompass
portions of the area ahead of the approaching cold front from the
NW. Guidance has continued to hint at portions of north-central and
north-east MD seeing some development in the early afternoon hours.
SPC has a D3 MRGL just over into our area across the Mason-Dixon
line with General Thunder elsewhere. A few damaging wind gusts are
possible with this system but confidence remains low with respect to
timing and coverage given the trend over the last several days with
this system. Will likely be the start of a busy two days as a
strong, potent cold front approaches from the NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A strong cold front will dive southeastward from the Lower Great
Lakes, across the eastern Ohio Valley and into the mid-Atlantic
region Thursday into Thursday night. A large amount of instability
expected ahead of the front. Mid and upper level energy will be
joined by a strong jet aloft to set the stage for potential strong
or damaging thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. SPC
currently has the eastern three-quarters of our region in a 15%
threat for severe weather. There are timing issues once again as to
when the strongest thunderstorms develop and move through the
region. The GFS is 12 to 18 hours faster than both the NAM and EURO
deterministic models. The GFS has the main event from mid-morning
through late afternoon Thursday. The NAM and EURO have it mid-
afternoon through about midnight. Nonetheless, whichever model you
believe, the instability ahead of the front and the lift from the
surface front, mid-level energy and jet aloft could cause for an
active Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be a couple
degrees above average, reaching the middle 80s with humid conditions.
As convection tapers and ends overnight Thursday into Friday
morning, high pressure will build into the region and stay in place
for most of the upcoming weekend. Dry conditions and calmer
conditions will prevail. The high could shift offshore on Sunday to
allow for quick but light return flow from the south. Temperatures
may be near 80 on Friday and Saturday with lower humidity. Highs on
Sunday should reach the lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for terminals most of the time through
early Wednesday. May see some patchy fog for the western-most
terminals (MRB, CHO) tonight and into early Tuesday morning. A
brief shower or rumble of thunder may impact CHO tomorrow
afternoon but it will be very brief in nature should it occur.
Chance for thunderstorms across the terminals increases by
late Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front expected to pass on
Thursday.
VFR conditions expected through midday Thursday, before developing
strong convection takes shape through Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. MVFR conditions to perhaps IFR conditions possible
due to lower cigs and heavy bursts of rain. VFR conditions return
later Thursday night through Sunday. Winds southwest 5 to 10 knots
Thursday; much gustier in strong thunderstorms. Winds becoming
northwest 10 knots Thursday night into Friday. Winds variable to
northeast 5 knots Friday night.
&&
.MARINE...
A southerly flow will channel up the middle portion of the Bay
and extreme lower Tidal Potomac River through late this evening.
An SCA is in effect for these areas. However, the gradient
should weaken overnight and winds will diminish to below SCA
criteria. Aside from that, winds should remain below hazard
criteria through Wednesday. A few showers and thunderstorms may
cross portions of the waters Wednesday afternoon and evening.
The only marine hazards at this time for Thursday into Thursday
evening would be for possible Special Marine Warnings due to
convection. Otherwise, no marine hazards expected late Thursday
night through Friday night.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ531>534-
537-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADM
NEAR TERM...BJL/ADM
SHORT TERM...ADM
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BJL/KLW/ADM
MARINE...BJL/KLW/ADM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
802 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON GOING THIS AFTERNOON...
Our "main event" is starting to get going with storms near the MN/SD
border at 3pm. This is a rare, high- end environment that will be
capable of producing a severe weather outbreak across the MPX
forecast area. The first concern is the potential for a few
supercells to develop in the warm sector ahead of the approaching
cold front. The WoFS has picked up a on these supercells forming over
northwest IA/southwest MN and moving northeast into central MN by
21Z. This potential will be monitored closely as they`d be capable of
producing all severe hazards including tornadoes. However, recent
trends from the WoFS has been to back down on the intensity of these
supercells, instead showing a severe QLCS coming out of SD.
The storms that form along the cold front will be capable of
producing all severe hazards too. This will track into eastern
Minnesota into western Wisconsin later this evening. Storm mode is
expected to transition from embedded supercells along the cold front
to a QLCS- like linear set up. The LLJ will enhance low level shear
this evening across western WI. This is concerning as it could
promote an environment capable of a QLCS tornado threat this
evening/early tonight.
Areas in the warm sector continue to recover with temperatures
warming back into the low/mid 80s. The mid level clouds have likely
helped our dew points stay in the mid to upper 60s across southern
MN, with less mixing due to stubborn cloud cover. This has kept our
LCLs on the lower side and if this trend continues, would be more
favorable for potential tornado development. Steep mid-level lapse
rates of 8.0C/km or greater are located with the area of best CAPE
with values of 2500J/kg or greater. KMPX VAD profile shows a highly
sheared environment present with 25+ kts of 0-1km shear and 300+
m2/s2 0-1km storm relative helicity. These storms will be moving
quickly with storm motions likely 60s kts or greater so it will be
important to plan ahead and act quickly after receiving any severe or
tornado warnings this afternoon. Once again, this environment has
analogs to some of historical, higher-end severe weather outbreaks
across the Upper Midwest.
Final concern for this evening, behind the severe threat, is a threat
for widespread severe/damaging wind over southwest MN. This is a
sting jet setup within the dryslot that will come in to the south of
the surface low. This is over Nebraska now, where we have seen the
occasional 50-60 mph wind gust. This is only expected to intensify
between 00z and 06z over southwest MN, the RAP showing h85 winds
increasing to nearly 80 kts. The big question is can we mix any of
this down to the surface. Forecast soundings for RWF say no, but
several CAMs do and they show the potential for a swath of 50-70 mph
winds over southwest MN. This is something we`ll watch closely as we
may need to transition the Tornado Watch to a High Wind Warning.
The upper level low that brought the severe weather to the area will
remain mostly stationary in south central Canada through the week. A
cold front Thursday night may spark a few showers with the models
showing the best chance for any measurable precipitation to be in
west central Wisconsin. A better chance for some measurable
precipitation comes this weekend with a boundary getting hung up
somewhere in the vicinity of the Iowa/Minnesota border on Saturday,
and models are in pretty good agreement with an overrunning
precipitation type of event affecting southern Minnesota. Late in
the period the upper low in southern Canada elongates and starts to
depart eastward and a trough may slide into the area and offer
another chance for showers on Monday. The biggest change for in the
long term will be the temperatures. Highs each day will be in the
60s and 70s, with lows each morning in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
Main line of CB/TS moving thru eastern MN, generally impacting
KMSP/KMKT and the WI TAF sites. This may reduce those sites to IFR
due to visibility. Strong winds will persist at all TAF sites,
especially in southern MN, through the rest of the overnight hours,
and even include periods of LLWS. Behind the departing cold front,
strong subsidence with residual low level moisture will produce MVFR
ceilings for much of the day Tuesday before conditions improve
Tuesday night.
KMSP...Strong thunderstorms to move across MSP during the early part
of the TAF period, potentially producing IFR conditions along with
strong wind shifts which may force runway use issues. LLWS issues to
persist overnight before abating Tuesday morning. Winds will then
veer to SW and NW tomorrow through tomorrow night. MVFR ceilings
cannot be ruled out tomorrow but have held conditions at VFR at this
time.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-Brown-
Faribault-Freeborn-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Rice-
Steele-Waseca-Watonwan.
WI...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
DISCUSSION...BPH/MPG/CEO
AVIATION...JPC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1146 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Through This Evening)
Issued at 245 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2022
High clouds drifting north and east across the Upper Great Lakes
from convection over MN has limited the insolation that was
previously expected this afternoon. As a result, temps thus far
have barely reached into the lower 80s across the western interior
of the U.P. Temps over the east half have also stayed cool thanks
to the mid-high level clouds and cooler moderating southerly flow
downwind of Lake Mi. Expect lower to mid 70s highs over the
eastern interior the rest of the afternoon with cooler 60s
readings along the Lake Mi shore. Adjusted high temps slightly
cooler accordingly.
Strong mid-level capping as evidenced on NAM and RAP BUFR
soundings with several hundred j/kg of CIN will keep conditions
dry at least through early evening despite lower to mid 60s dew
points across the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 325 PM EDT MON
MAY 30 2022
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the ern U.S. and a
trough in the plains and Rockies 00z Tue. There is a shortwave in
the northern plains 00z Tue that will head northeast into the upper
Great Lakes 00z Wed. This shortwave will have a closed low with it
that will move into northern Manitoba and remain there by 00z Fri.
Shortwave energy over the Rockies will head east and move into the
upper Great Lakes Wed night with more troughing for Thu. Looks like
the majority of dynamics will stay to the north and west of the area
for tonight and even into Tue. It does look dry for most of tonight
with a decent cap remaining over the area. Only low chance pops in
the far west and this would look to advect in tonight. Dieing
frontal zone tries to come through on Tue and will have some slight
chance pops in the afternoon, but again anything that forms would be
isolated. Will be quite gusty on Tue.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low over
central Canada 12z Fri that remains stationary 12z Sat. This closed
low drops southward into south central Canada 12z Sun with troughing
in the upper Great Lakes which remains into Mon. Temperatures look
to remain below normal for this forecast period and unsettled being
underneath the upper level trough.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2022
IMPACTS:
- Thunderstorms possible through Tue 10Z at KIWD
- Prolonged LLWS threat through daybreak
- Strong southerly winds sustained at 14 to 20 kts with gusts to 32
to 40 kts
- LLWS possible again at KCMX Wed 01-03Z.
Discussion...
VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the
TAF period, but winds will be the main threat throughout the period
as a LLJ moves through early this morning ahead of an approaching
frontal system. And, strong diurnal mixing later today will
accelerate winds to 30 to 40 kts at the surface. Look for possible
LLWS again Wed 01-03Z at KCMX. Also, thunderstorms will still be
possible at KIWD over the next several hours, but the overall trend
has been west of KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 325 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2022
South winds of 15 to 25 knots will continue through tonight and then
go to the southwest up to 30 knots on Tue into Tue evening. Some of
the higher platforms in western Lake Superior could see a few gale
force gusts on Tue into Tue evening, but this would be Rock of Ages
and Devils Island. A cold front swings through the area Tuesday
night and Wednesday, allowing the winds to finally relax below 15
knots by late Wednesday afternoon. The unsettled weather will also
come to an end, with dry conditions expected from Wednesday through
Saturday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for MIZ014.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
903 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure centered off the Southeast coast will persist
and strengthen through mid-week. A cold front will slowly approach
from the north and northwest on Thursday and move into the area on
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 903 PM Monday...
This evening`s surface analysis showed a 1020 mb high offshore of
NC. The sea breeze is just as evident as it was last night, both on
radar and satellite. It currently extends northeast to southwest
from near Rocky Mount, southwest into eastern Wake County and near
Southern Pines to Wadesboro. A gust to 16-18 kt occurred at FAY/MEB
behind the boundary, along with a few towering cu that only produced
an isolated shower or two. The boundary will continue to lift north
and west into the Piedmont over the next few hours, becoming diffuse
with time. Ongoing convection over GA/northern FL is associated with
a mid to upper-level trough over southern GA/northern FL. This
convection should remain well south and west of our area overnight
as a 588 dam ridge stays anchored over the Appalachians. Overnight
lows were largely unchanged from the previous forecast, though
lowered slightly in the favored cool spots to capture trends from
last night`s lows. With dissipating cumulus field, clear skies
should yield lows in the middle 60s, with lower 60s across the far
northern/northeast Piedmont and usual cold spots in Chatham/Randolph
Counties. The region of rich surface moisture, characterized by mid
to upper 60s dewpoints, remains present across the Sandhills and
Coastal Plain, even some low 70s in Halifax. This region is most
favored for patchy fog overnight and around daybreak Tue.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Monday...
Surface high pressure centered just off the Carolina coast and a
ridge of high pressure aloft will result in a subsident pattern
with above average temperatures and dry weather. An area of
early morning fog and stratus across the Sandhills and Coastal
Plain will give way to mostly sunny skies by mid to late
morning. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds will once
again develop although they will be a little bit more scattered
than today. Low level thicknesses will be a few meters higher
tomorrow than today and should yield highs a couple of degrees
warmer, in the 88 to 93 range. Dewpoints won`t be high enough to
crank up the heat index too much but successive days of hot
weather, caution should still be exercised, especially for
anyone that must work outdoors and those without access to air
conditioning. As dew points climb a bit, a muggy night is
expected on Tuesday night with lows in the mid 60s to near 70.
-Blaes
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 203 PM Monday...
The large ridge extending from TX northeastward to the Mid Atlantic
region will provide another dry and hot day Wednesday (highs well
into the 90s)...before the ridge begins to weaken and slip south on
Thursday thanks to the next short wave trough moving southeast
across the Great Lakes region. Rain chances will begin increasing
late in the day Thursday and esp Thursday night as the cold front
assoc with the upper trough axis approaches. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the first half of Friday until
the front moves through during the afternoon or evening. In the
meantime, highs on Thursday will once again be well into the 90s
given the persistence and prefrontal airmass. But the combination
of rain showers, clouds, and eventually a post-frontal airmass,
highs Friday will be cooler... lower to middle 80s, with the
exception of near 90 across our far southeast zones where the fropa
and post-frontal airmass will be delayed.
This weekend looks to be mainly dry and seasonable temps with high
pressure passing by to our north. Otherwise, still keeping an eye
on the tropics to our south, esp given the system that the ECMWF,
and to a lesser extent the GFS, are featuring well off the Southeast
Coast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 725 PM Monday...
There is high confidence in VFR conditions to start the TAF period.
Diurnal cumulus between 5000-7000 feet will diminish after sunset,
giving way to mostly clear skies and light winds with high pressure
offshore. The sea-breeze has pushed west into the Sandhills and
Coastal Plain, including FAY. South-southeast winds at FAY should
give way to light and variable winds overnight. Little change was
made to the forecast early Tue, with the potential still there for
MVFR to IFR-LIFR fog, most favored at FAY/RWI. The last few runs of
the high-resolution HRRR model have shifted the fog threat mostly at
FAY across the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. However, a
moisture rich surface layer still exist at RWI for fog to reach this
terminal. GSO/INT/RDU should stay VFR through the period. Fog at
FAY/RWI will lift by 13-14Z. All terminals will see west-southwest
winds Tue afternoon around 5-6 kt with afternoon scattered cumulus
development in the 5000-7000 ft layer.
Outlook: Early morning sub-VFR fog/stratus will again be possible
Wed morning over the eastern TAF sites. An approaching cold front
late in the work week will bring a chance of showers and storms late
Thu and Fri. VFR conditions should return on Sat.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...Kren