Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/30/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
841 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
Overall the forecast is panning out okay. Did make a few changes
to pops, but nothing significant. Latest HRRR has backed off on
convection chances in the east this evening. ABR sounding did
possess a bit of a cap around H7. The convection over Nebraska is
what will likely develop northeast along an instability gradient
through the overnight hours, likely getting into NE SD very late
tnt. Latest HRRR keeps convection looking pretty beefy as it moves
into the eastern CWA, so a few severe storms still look possible
despite a pretty weak to non-existent LLJ. Temperatures look okay.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
A complex forecast continues to take shape for our CWA in this
forecast period. First off, we`ll focus on the remainder of today
into tonight. A nearly stationary frontal boundary or sfc trough
remains draped from north to south across the Dakotas/Minnesota
border area. Visible satl shows deepening CU field invof this sfc
boundary from the Red River Valley southward into parts of west
central MN and northeast SD. MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/KG are
concentrated across our northeast corner with deep layer shear
values of about 30-35 kts. Some of the CAMS depict convection firing
across our northeast late in the afternoon/early evening before
shifting north out of our area. The primary threats would be large
hail and gusty winds from any supercells that would happen to
develop.
Overall, through the mid evening hours, most of our CWA should
remain quiet. We will then turn our eyes southward as the next in a
series of mid level impulses shifts northeastward into our region
late tonight and early Monday morning. Another cluster of storms
with embedded supercells is expected to develop across NE and
southern-southeastern SD and track north northeastward overnight.
This activity looks to reach our eastern zones closer to midnight at
the earliest but more so after that time frame through the overnight
into the pre-dawn hours of Monday. All severe weather threats will
be possible with this, especially damaging winds and large hail.
This convection could continue to be leftover across parts of our
eastern zones perhaps closer to or just beyond sunrise.
The final phase of the multifaceted storm system will move into our
region and CWA during the day on Monday. A very potent sfc low
pressure system with associated strong mid lvl low pressure is
progged to track into SD through the daytime hours. The sfc low will
run up and along the sfc frontal boundary which will help to and aid
in new convection developing during the heating of the day. MLCAPE
values Monday afternoon reach 2500-3500 J/KG across northeast SD and
west central MN with more than adequate effective shear values in
excess of 50-70 kts. The presence of a 30-40 kt low level jet across
our far eastern/southeast zones will lead to favorable low level
shear values that will be conducive to strong tornadic activity.
Numerous supercells are anticipated in this environment across
eastern SD and western MN during the afternoon and lingering into
the early evening hours. All severe threats remain on the table with
very large hail and strong tornadoes the primary threats. This
favorable environment looks to shift fairly quickly out of our CWA
by the early evening hours. So, anticipate the strong to severe
threat will diminish in our CWA at that point. SPC has highlighted
our eastern areas with an enhanced to moderate risk for severe
weather. The other concern for Monday will be the potential for
heavy rainfall. We`ll have to see how tonight`s/overnight`s
convection plays out and what areas that rainfall occurs. If we get
some type of training cells situation, some scattered flash flooding
could be possible.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
The strong surface low pressure system responsible for Monday`s
severe weather looks to be in the vicinity of northern MN by 12Z
Tuesday. Rather cool airmass overhead as this system departs, with
850mb temps in the single digits C. Highs on Tuesday only look to
reach the upper 50s to lower 60s with a stiff northwest breeze. Will
also have to contend with wrap around showers that several models
still indicate. Conditions then appear to quiet down Wednesday and
Thursday before perhaps more energy crosses the northern plains
towards the end of the week/weekend, bringing additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms.
As mentioned earlier, temperatures start off rather cool Tuesday,
and even into Wednesday somewhat. Moderating temps occur by Thursday
and Friday, but overall, the entire extended period looks to be
characterized by below normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR skies/vsbys are expected through most of tonight. However, as
showers and storms proliferate late tnt and Monday, lower MVFR and
even IFR cigs are possible, along with lowered vsbys during any
storms.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Vipond
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1010 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south of the region today and Memorial Day.
This will bring summer temperatures for the rest of the holiday
weekend. Slightly more humid on Memorial Day, but tolerable. A
backdoor cold front brings cooler temperatures to the coast Tuesday,
then to the rest of the region Wednesday. Unsettled weather returns
late Wednesday/Wed night and again Friday in the form of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures then will average near to
slightly cooler than normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM Update...
The forecast remains largely on track this evening with the
exception of the pesky stratus deck to our southeast. Water
vapor imagery suggests that any hint of moisture associated
with that cloud deck has moved significantly south and east of
the benchmark. The nighttime microphysics and IR channels from
GOES support that notion. Given this evidence, vsbys and cloud
heights were changed to reflect clear conditions through about
06Z. Should the stratus deck redevelop overnight it is possible
that conditions deteriorate across Nantucket and the south
coast however, there is a strong possibility that the deck does
not redevelop/engulf the Islands overnight given a lack of
strong southerly flow.
While stratus appears to be less of an issue at this time,
radiation fog is still on the table, and has been added to the
forecast for the Connecticut River Valley and isolated pockets
of central and western MA; where winds are most likely to go
calm overnight. Congruent with the previous thinking, winds will
stay just breezy enough, around 5 kt, across much of eastern MA
and RI for widespread patchy fog to develop, but open fields
and radiation prone areas across the eastern half of the CWA
could see isolated patchy fog by daybreak.
7:30 PM Update...
As of this writing, dewpoints from observations were running as
much as 4 degrees above the previous forecast. Normally, this
wouldn`t spell trouble, but it is possible that this notable
increase in moisture could generate patchy radiation fog across
interior southern New England overnight; in areas where winds
are able to decouple such as the CT river valley and our typical
radiators in metro-west. This fog will likely be limited to
radiation prone fields and valleys.
The other consideration regarding this evening`s forecast is the
low cloud deck currently centered to our southeast. Guidance is
varied regarding how far northwest the deck will advance
overnight, with the HRRR bringing vsbys down to virtually zero
across ACK and the NAM keeping any sort of IFR conditions well
offshore. To hint at the possibility of degraded vsbys across
Nantucket and the Cape, fog was tucked into the forecast along
the south coast, Nantucket sound, and Buzzards Bay.
In the case of both the radiation fog potential and the low
cloud deck that may impact the Islands, conditions are expected
to rapidly improved after sunrise, as we mix quickly after
sunrise with a westerly breeze.
4 PM update...
Tonight...
Tranquil/quiet weather with dry NW flow aloft. Weak high pressure
south of New England will promote radiational cooling, and with dew
pts in the 50s, most locations will experience lows in the 50s as
well. A very comfortable night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights
* Very warm Memorial Day with highs in the upper 80s & low 90s
* Warm Monday night with WNW winds
Memorial Day...
Very warm airmass over the Great Lakes today begins to advect into
southern New England tomorrow, with 850 mb temps increasing to
+15C/+16C and 925 mb +22C/+23C. Model soundings indicate west winds
increasing of 10-20 mph mixing down to the surface, providing some
downslope adiabatic warming. These temps aloft combined with mixing
to at least 850 mb along with downsloping winds, will yield highs
from the upper 80s to lower 90s across much of the region, including
the Greater Boston area. WSW winds will keep the south coastal
beaches cooler with highs 75-80. NBM 75 percentile captured this
best, thus derived highs tomorrow from this dataset.
Modest west wind 10-20 mph will provide some relief to the very warm
temperatures, but also the dew pts will be in the 50s much of the
day, then increasing into the low 60s late. Thus, overall humidity
will be tolerable.
Monday night...
NW flow aloft continues, providing dry weather. It will be warmer
than tonight, given WNW surface winds and dew pts rising into the
lower 60s. Lows only dropping off into the mid and upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* Strong backdoor cold front will cool off the coast on Tuesday,
then rest of the region on Wednesday.
* While Tuesday should remain mostly dry, there could be a few
showers and even an isolated thunderstorm around.
* Cloudy and cool on Wednesday with a few showers around.
Thursday looks to be the pick of the work week.
* Some showers around on Friday before a gorgeous weekend with
near normal temps.
Big picture...
Overall, a cool pattern for much of the week with a Maritime
high nearby. Best potential for above normal temps and 80s will
be towards the CT valley where downsloping offsets the cooling
onshore influence. Everyone will get their fair share of
pleasant outdoor conditions but can`t completely discount the
possibility for a few showers and non-severe thunderstorms,
especially on Wednesday and Friday. Next weekend looks gorgeous
with no real big heat.
Details...
Tuesday...
Spent most of the time on Tuesday. Felt reasonably confident
enough to deviate from the National Blend of Models (NBM) to
provide more details about the strong backdoor cold front and
impact on temperatures. While everywhere should be off to a warm
start (see the short term discussion on overnight Monday),
there will be quite an abrupt temperature drop and a noticeable
wind shift as the backdoor cold front comes through. Places like
Boston will likely see their daytime highs by mid morning
before temp drops 15-20 degrees from near 80 to near 60 and then
get stuck in the 60s because of cloud cover and onshore flow
off ocean waters whose SSTs are still in the mid 50s. In
addition, given the sharp temperature differential and mesoscale
pressure rise- fall couplet, did increase the winds to the 90th
percentile of the NBM guidance. The stronger winds will only
likely last a couple of hours when the cold front comes through,
but given the uncertainty in timing, opted to do a broad brush
bump in the winds.
For the temp forecast, blended in the MOS and a bit of the
deterministic guidance (GFS, NAM) given that the NBM smoothes
out the temp spread too much given the amplitude of the front.
By Tuesday afternoon, there will likely be a 30-35 degree spread
in observed temps, from 60s along the eastern MA coast to low to
even mid 90s across the CT valley.
In addition, given the strong forcing and instability in the
warm sector, won`t be surprised to see a few showers and even an
isolated non-severe thunderstorm develop across the western
two-thirds of the CWA. So introduced slight to low chance PoPs
with possibility for thunder for Tuesday afternoon. But most
locations should remain dry, although there could be quite a bit
of cloud cover for areas behind the frontal passage.
Wednesday into Thursday...
Still quite a bit of difference between the available
deterministic guidance. While GFS shows a washout, the EC keeps
the rain out of most of our CWA. Either way, it looks like a
cool Wednesday for the entire region given the potential for
multiple low pressure systems to be in the vicinity. Quite a bit
of a chaotic pattern. In the upper levels, the maritime H5
trough that brought us the backdoor cold front will slide to our
southeast, allowing for a H5 ridge to once again build towards
New England. But the low levels are a different story. With a
maritime high nearby, onshore flow off SSTs in the mid 50s will
dominate for the remainder of the week, keeping daytime temps
near to slightly below normal. From a synoptic standpoint, the
backdoor cold front looks to stall just to our southwest. Then a
low pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes merge and
tries to push the stalled boundary back as a warm or occluded
front. This will allow for increased chances for a few showers
and thunderstorms especially across our western zones. This warm
front is not likely to make much headway, however, given that
the maritime high will hold its ground. In addition, a building
upper ridge is not exactly ideal for widespread unsettled
weather.
Overall, did a blend of the NBM and Superblend given the
uncertainty in how shower and thunderstorm chances would evolve.
We are also at the time of the year whereby it is tough to get a
prolonged stretch of clear blue skies so while there doesn`t
seem to be much impactful weather to talk about, there also
isn`t much hazardous weather to worry about.
For those looking for a dry day to do outdoor activities,
Thursday looks to be your best bet. In fact, Thursday could well
turn out to be the pick of the work week.
Friday into Sunday...
A weak coastal low could lead to some showers and even a few
non-severe thunderstorms on Friday along with below normal
temps. But high pressure then builds in so the weekend looks
gorgeous at this time with near normal temps. For reference,
normal highs for early June are in the mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z update...
After 00z...moderate forecast confidence. Some uncertainty on
MVFR/IFR conditions south of New England advecting northward and
onshore overnight.
Most likely scenario - VFR, dry conditions and light S-SE winds
becoming SW overnight. Low risk on MVFR/IFR stratus and fog
south of New England advecting northward overnight and coming
onshore into coastal RI and nearby southeast MA. More likely to
impact the Islands of ACK/MVY and BID.
Monday...
VFR with any cloud bases 050-060. WSW winds and dry weather.
Monday night...
VFR and dry. WSW winds becoming WNW overnight.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR
possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High forecast confidence thru Monday night...
Tonight...
S-SE winds this evening becoming SW late evening and overnight. Dry
weather and good vsby prevail. Only wrinkle to the forecast is low
clouds well south of New England. This low level moisture will
return northward overnight, but expecting most of these low clouds
and eventually fog to remain south of the waters, perhaps clipping
the islands.
Memorial Day...
WSW winds 10-20 kt, highest wind near shore. Any patchy fog at
sunrise quickly dissipates. Otherwise, dry weather and good vsby
prevail.
Monday night...
Increasing winds aloft, but low level inversion precludes these
winds from reaching the surface. Thus, light WSW winds and dry
weather. Low risk of patchy fog as humid airmass overspreads the
chilly ocean waters.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ230>237-251-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Chai
NEAR TERM...Nocera/KS
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...Nocera/Chai/KS
MARINE...Nocera/Chai
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
644 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
Summary: Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon through Tuesday morning. Some storms may be severe this
afternoon through the overnight and again Monday afternoon through
early Tuesday morning. In addition to the severe weather risk,
heavy rainfall is likely over portions of central and north-
central Minnesota which may lead to flash flooding. A quieter
pattern emerges midweek through next weekend.
Not much has changed in the forecast since this morning. Fog has
lifted along the North Shore and is likely to return tonight,
particularly for areas which received/will receive rainfall
today/tonight. A Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed.
However, low temporal and spatial confidence prevents me from
issuing the headline with this forecast package. Would like to
wait and see how the storms evolve and whether cloud cover
interferes with fog formation.
Showers and thunderstorms have been percolating in one form or
another all day and were starting to see intensities and
coverage increase over northwest into north-central Minnesota. A
serpentine warm front stretched from near Grafton, ND (KGAF) to
near Grand Rapids to near Moose Lake to near Hayward to western
Lake Superior north of Ironwood. The undulation in the front is
due in part to a persistent northeasterly lake breeze which has
been persistent this afternoon. Cloud cover on either side of the
warm front in central and north-central Minnesota has limited
destabilization. SPC Mesoanalysis features an uncapped mixed layer
over northwest Minnesota with 1000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. The CAPE
gradient extends east into north-central Minnesota and roughly
follows the contour of the warm front. MLCIN is on the order of
100-300 J/kg over my Minnesota zones suggesting the storms in
Itasca County as of 2030Z are elevated. Look for the CIN to
continue to erode this afternoon and evening allowing for
additional convection to develop. Deep layer shear is limited in
the wake of a meso-high from the morning convection over central
Minnesota. Effective shear will increase to 40 to 55 knots over
central Minnesota into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin by
02Z. Storms are expected to increase in coverage through this
evening. Supercells will be possible in the warm sector with large
hail and damaging winds the main threats. A tornado or two cannot
be ruled out if storms can become rooted in the boundary layer.
Additional storms are expected to fire this afternoon and early
evening along the cold front which stretched from the
Dakotas/Minnesota border down to eastern Nebraska at 20Z. The
storms should propagate eastward into central and north-central
Minnesota this evening or tonight. Storms may be severe with large
hail and damaging winds the main threat. There will also be a
potential for training storms along the front which may lead to
flash flooding. The Flash Flood Watch issued by the mid-shift was
in good shape, so no changes needed.
The cold front will stall over western Minnesota tonight and
another area of low pressure will lift into the region for Monday.
Storms may be ongoing at 12Z over northeast Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin. Any outflow boundaries which develop will
likely provide forcing and enhanced wind shear for another round
of storms Monday afternoon and evening. The severe weather
potential will include all modes, including flash flooding. The
greatest tornado risk appears to be focused over western Minnesota
and may extend as far north as the Brainerd Lakes and Aitkin
during the late afternoon and evening. Very large hail to baseball
size and damaging wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph will be possible in
addition to the tornado threat. NAM mid-level lapse rates at BRD
during the afternoon will be 7 to 7.5 C/km, for example with
plenty of hail growth zone CAPE. The largest hail and strongest
winds will be possible during the late afternoon into the evening
over central to north-central Minnesota, and will eventually
transition a wind threat overnight. Provided we can scour out the
clouds from the overnight/morning convection, portions of
northwest Wisconsin and the I-35 corridor may make a run at 90
degrees with warm but not as warm temps farther northeast across
the remainder of my Minnesota zones.
A few showers and storms may linger into Tuesday, but the severe
weather potential will shift east of our area. A quieter period is
expected for the remainder of the forecast through next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
An unsettled period is expected as multiple rounds of
thunderstorms work across the region. Favored the HRRR with this
update and used that to refine the timing of convection for the
overnight hours with storms not expected to develop until later
this evening. Storms will bring periods of MVFR or lower VSBYs and
CIGs will be variable at times with MVFR/IFR conditions possible,
especially at DLH with onshore flow. Fog may once again redevelop
across the area, but with winds not subsiding overnight, chances
for this are reduced. Any storms passing over a terminal will
have the potential for small hail and erratic winds. Some areas of
LLWS will be possible overnight as a low-level jet works across
the area, but the effects look patchy in nature. Additional rounds
of storms will be possible on Monday and future updates will
better time those threats out.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
Visibility improved this morning near the Twin Ports and along
the shoreline areas. The Duluth and Two Harbors webcams still show
fog farther out onto the lake. Extended the Dense Fog Advisory
from Two Harbors to Grand Portage until 10 AM tomorrow while
letting the portion from Two Harbors to Duluth to Port Wing expire
at 1 PM.
Storms will come through the area this afternoon and tonight,
with large hail, damaging winds, and cloud-to-water lightning as
the primary threats. Winds today along the North Shore are
expected to reach up to 25 kts, which will cause waves for the
North Shore and portions of the South Shore to increase up to 5 ft
this afternoon and evening. Small Craft Advisories have been
issued. Fog is expected to return tonight and may become
widespread, requiring an expansion of the Dense Fog Advisory.
Several rounds of storms are possible Monday through Tuesday
morning. A few storms may be severe with hail larger than penny-
size, wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots, and frequent cloud-to-water
lightning. Gusty winds of 15 to 25 knots are forecast for Tuesday
and another Small Craft Advisory may be needed.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 56 78 58 66 / 70 50 90 50
INL 58 80 54 63 / 70 70 90 80
BRD 63 83 57 64 / 70 80 90 50
HYR 65 87 62 75 / 50 40 80 40
ASX 63 86 63 75 / 50 40 70 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MNZ010-011-018-025-026-
033>035.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for LSZ140>146-150.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...Huyck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
625 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
Our CWA has spent the day under partial cloud cover from debris of
the morning showers and thunderstorms that moved across central
Iowa. Except for the northwest corner counties, this has resulted
in less wind than forecast, and it appears we`ll be dealing with
that cloud cover through the rest of the afternoon. Meanwhile, our
northwest is seeing the collapse of the mesohigh related to the
showers earlier, and winds are near 45 mph at times there. We`re
handling this with a SPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
Outside of the shower dissipation process in the northwest, winds
are generally well under advisory, and am not planning on issuing
anything beyond the SPS this afternoon/evening. Temperatures are
in the lower to mid 80s (a few upper 80s) as of 2 PM, and this
should be maintained into the early evening as we`re well mixed
and far away from the surface boundaries. This fully established
warm sector will remain over the area through Monday, with little
reason for any elevated activity to move overhead as well. Thus,
despite the active thunderstorm night and day ahead to our west /
north, it should be warm, windy, and dry here (though dewpoints
will certainly be increasingly uncomfortable).
Monday we`re again going to see winds near advisory, but it looks
rather low confidence for seeing widespread conditions, just like
today has been. Thus, a hot day with winds reaching the 35 to 45
range is likely, but most spots hourly max should be under 45 mph.
Dewpoints will be a few degrees warmer, with mid 60s widespread
Monday. With the wind, heat index should be a minimal impact, but
reading will certainly be hovering around 90 through the
afternoon.
The cold front will remain west of the CWA through 00z Tuesday,
and any convergence for storms will be near if not somewhat post
frontal, thus a dry forecast is in place through Monday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
Key messages:
1. Showers and thunderstorms expected Monday night/early Tuesday.
Coverage and longevity of this activity will help determine storm
threat and subsequent severe risk Tuesday afternoon and evening.
2. Dry and comfortable conditions to end the work week.
Monday night-Tuesday night...strong closed low in SD will lift north
into northern MN to begin the period with a strong mid level jet
located over the western half of IA. Strong storms will fire in this
area during the evening along a 850mb theta-e gradient and track
east northeast. Another shortwave will ride along this boundary a
few hours later generating more showers and thunderstorms initially
in southwest IA and moving east through the early morning. These
storms will likely bring a severe risk and the question becomes will
these storms maintain their strength and reach eastern IA. Latest
CAMs and the 15z RAP would suggest that they would not reach our
west until after 07z Tuesday. CAPE begins to wane quickly at this
time and should help storms weaken below severe levels, but some
scattered showers and embedded thunder will still be possible. Cloud
trends from morning rain Tuesday and location of the synoptic front
will help determine area of severe risk in the afternoon and
evening. Warm and noticeably humid conditions are forecast
Tuesday with highs in the 80s (warmest in IL) and dewpoints in the
60s.
Timing differences still continue with the fropa Tuesday with the
12z GFS now the fastest solution and the 12z NAM the slowest through
the CWA. A slower progression would increase the severe threat and a
faster one would limit the severe risk to our far southeast portions
of the CWA. Taking a look at forecast soundings, SBCAPE values over
2400 J/Kg and 0-6km shear values near 40 kts are seen along the
front in addition to very high PWs approaching 2", bringing a
damaging wind, large hail, and heavy rain threat under the strongest
cells. Current thinking for timing any severe risk would be from 2-
10pm Tuesday across eastern IA, northwest IL, and northeast MO. SPC
has most of the area in a Day 3 slight risk for severe storms. Once
the front passes any location, the severe risk will diminish and
cooler temperatures and humidity will move in.
Wednesday-Saturday...transition to northwest flow aloft with a
1017mb surface high moving overhead will bring dry and pleasant
conditions. With 850mb temps remaining below 10C and dewpoints in
the upper 40s/low 50s, highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s are
forecast. This will be 4-7 degrees below normal for early June and
you will be able to give your A/C a rest and enjoy some fresh air.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
Main impact to aviation tonight into early Monday AM will be low-
level wind shear with 50-55 kt S to SSW winds at 2000 ft AGL.
At the surface, gusty S to SSE winds will decrease slightly
overnight before increasing once again Monday morning. Expect peak
gusts around 35 kts from midday Monday through the evening. VFR
will prevail through the period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022
Have issued a flood watch for LD 18 and Burlington on the
Mississippi River with this morning forecast issuance. While
confidence is still low in reaching flood stage, we are now a half
a foot away from it at both sites. Slow rises are expected over
the next 48 hours and will be monitored for possible upgrade to
warning in later forecasts.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Gross
AVIATION...Uttech
HYDROLOGY...Gross
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1203 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Through Early Evening)
Issued at 236 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2022
Stabilizing influence of warmer, drier air aloft over Upper Mi as
noted on fcst soundings is being evidenced this afternoon on MQT radar
imagery as convection forming over northern WI weakens or dies
out completely as it lifts north and east into the U.P. This trend
should continue into the early evening hours. However, may need to
keep a watch on the interface of land/marine boundaries into
tonight as the forcing of warm, moist air over the marine layer
could provide added lift to break through any mid-level capping
and initiate isold tsra. This just happened off Grand Marais in
the past hr. Temps should remain fairly steady or could rise a
degree or two into the early evening hours under mostly cloudy
skies. Generally, readings most locations this afternoon have
been in the lower to mid 70s with some cooler low 60s readings
near the Great Lakes central and east.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2022
Heat, humidity and dangerous swimming conditions are expected in
this forecast package, with reprieve from these conditions expected
Tuesday night and Wednesday.
GOES16 water vapor imagery and RAP analysis captures the pattern
across CONUS well, with long wave trough/ridge pattern from west to
east and southwest flow across the north-central Plains. Impacts
from the few shortwaves currently embedded within this southwest
flow should be behind us by late this evening. As these pass through
this afternoon, the ridge axis over western Lake Superior will shift
eastward into Ontario, setting up a period of southwest flow and
warm and moist air advecting into the region. Within this flow, a
surface low is expected to develop over the Central Plains by late
Sunday night and then ride the flow north-northeastward into the
Dakotas by late Monday, and northwest Ontario Tuesday. From there,
the troughing currently over the western CONUS is expected to
deamplify and allow the surface low to occlude and cut off a closed
upper level low over northern Manitoba by Tuesday night. As this low
spins nearly stationary through the remainder of the week, flow
across our region looks to become largely zonal.
In terms of sensible weather, the southwest flow will advect in a
very warm and moist airmass into the region. Together, these muggy
conditions will make some feel uncomfortable being outside. If folks
are venturing out, they should take frequent breaks and stay
hydrated. Overnight lows tonight and Monday night have a real chance
of challenging the current record warm lows at our office in
Negaunee Township. The best shot looks to be Monday night, where
we`re expecting to stay in the 60s overnight. Both nights, the
western portions of the region should see lows in the low to mid 60s
and the east near 60F. As warm air and downsloping adiabatic warming
occurs, expect much of the region Monday to climb into the 80s with
some low 90s being possible in the interior west and portions of the
Lake Superior shoreline, including Marquette. Expect the heat to
stick around Tuesday, but guidance is suggesting a slightly cooler
day, with most folks topping out in the 80s. If you`re looking for
the coolest conditions, the lakeshores of the Bay of Green Bay and
Lake Michigan will be the best spots, but don`t go swimming! A stout
LLJ overhead will make for gusty southerly winds, creating large
waves and dangerous swimming conditions for all Schoolcraft County
beaches Memorial Day (Monday/tomorrow) and Tuesday.
With that LLJ overhead, dinural mixing to even a few thousand feet
will be able to mix gusty winds to the surface. While the core of
the winds should remain within the inversion, I`m still expecting
30mph gusts to be possible in some locations. Greatest potential
Monday and Monday night looks to be across the east half and terrain
opportunistic areas like the Lake Superior lakeshore east of
Marquette and the higher terrain of the Michigamme Highlands and
Gogebic Range. There`s some uncertainty about rain and thunderstorm
chances Memorial Day. CAMs are presenting mixed solutions regarding
where convective initiation takes place over Minnesota and Wisconsin
during the day. As is typically the case, much of this will depend
on MCS evolution prior and where exactly any surface boundaries
linger. Overall though, if showers or thunderstorms end up moving
into the region, the most probable locations appear to be the west
half of Upper Michigan and Lake Superior.
As the surface low lifts northeast Monday night, upstream convection
is expected to drift into western Lake Superior. Timing suggests the
loss of dinural influence, but with deep shear values near 45kts, I
wouldn`t be surprised if a couple elevated thunderstorms hold
together and move into western Upper Michigan. By Tuesday, two
boundaries are expected to swing through the region as the low pulls
away to our north. The first looks to be sometime in the morning,
and could have some thunderstorms with it if upstream convection
holds together. If it holds, a wave of decaying
showers/thunderstorms Tuesday morning looks centered across the west
and central. Soon after, a period of strong southwesterly winds is
expected, especially west. Guidance is suggesting being able to mix
wind gusts of 45mph down to the surface in some spots. The main
boundary looks to progress through from west to east starting around
midday and into the afternoon. With the warm and moist airmass out
ahead of the boundary, expecting daytime destabilization to kick off
thunderstorm activity ahead of the boundary, mainly in the central
and east. Guidance is suggesting MLCAPE climbing above 1000 j/kg and
0-6km bulk sheer of 50 to 75kts. This could result in some strong or
severe storms capable of supporting hail or strong winds.
Behind the boundary, a cooler airmass will build in Tuesday night.
This will trend temps back toward more seasonal for the remainder of
the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1203 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2022
IMPACTS:
-LLWS threat early this morning at all TAF sites
-LLWS threat again Monday evening/night
-Strong SE surface winds becoming SSW at 12 to 14 kts with gusts up
to 26 kts
-Thunderstorm threat Monday afternoon/evening
DISCUSSION: VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF
period. But, a series of low level jets will create a LLWS threat at
all TAF sites early this morning and again this evening/tonight.
And, southerly winds will be strong with sustained speeds in the 12
to 14 kt range, gusting to 26 kts. Also to note, there is a chance
for thunderstorms this afternoon/evening, but confidence is not high
enough in timing to insert mention at this time.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 317 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2022
The increasingly warm and moist airmass over the region, coupled
with strong winds aloft, will support a period of around 25kts winds
on Lake Superior until the main boundary swings through from west to
east Tuesday. As is typical in these increasingly stable conditions,
identifying the extent of stronger winds aloft mixing to the surface
is a challenge. I suspect there will be periods of near gale
conditions for high reporting platforms like Stannard Rock or Rock
of Ages, but coincident with less mixing and thus lighter winds
lower toward the surface. The exception would be just off shore of
the Lake Superior lakeshore in downslope prone regions. The first
wave of potentially stronger winds are expected tonight, across
mainly north and east of the Keweenaw Peninsula. The second wave
looks Monday night and Tuesday. The strongest winds aloft are
expected at this time, but as this coincides with the most stable
period in this event, I`m even more uncertain about winds mixing to
the surface.
Until the main low lifts out of the region and the cold front swings
through Tuesday, periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected
on Lake Superior. Recent CAMs guidance suggests the northeastward
progression of upstream convection to move into the western and
northern portions of the lake tonight, tomorrow, and Monday night.
Tuesday activity looks more concentrated over the central and
eastern portions. With the warm and moist airmass, and much cooler
lake surface, any persistent rain will result in fog developing.
Following the cold frontal passage, a period of 20kt or less winds
is expected heading into next weekend.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
evening for MIZ014.
Lake Superior...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
LSZ162.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
410 PM MST Sun May 29 2022
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems across the intermountain West will
bring cooler and windy conditions to the Desert Southwest through
Monday. High pressure will then build east of the region, resulting
in seasonably dry conditions along with a warming trend. A return to
above normal temperatures is expected Wednesday through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery reveals several mid-level vortices
embedded within a well-defined low pressure system near Salt Lake
City. Convection has been concentrated well to our north across Utah
and Colorado. No rainfall is expected across the lower deserts of
Arizona, however anomalously high dewpoints in the 40s have been
observed today across central Arizona. Main impact from this system
will be slightly cooler temperatures along with periods of windy
conditions through tomorrow.
Winds earlier this morning were strong enough to result in
widespread reduced visibilities due to dust channels and plumes of
blowing dust/sand across portions of southeastern California.
Visibilities have improved though the threat of blowing dust will be
possible again as windy conditions redevelop this evening. Further
east across Arizona, very high fire danger continues to be a concern
across mainly far southeastern Gila County and a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect through this evening. Observations indicate RHs
have dropped below 15 percent, and the experimental NBM indicates
winds will strengthen this afternoon ahead of the aforementioned low
pressure system. Across the Phoenix area, latest ECMWF ensemble,
HREF and CAMs have trended a bit weaker with the winds.
Nevertheless, gusts up to 30 mph will be possible into this evening.
Meanwhile, latest HRRR also indicates the westerly flow will be
favorable for low concentrations of smoke from the Lost Lake fire in
southeastern California to reach central Arizona this afternoon and
overnight.
The below normal temperatures across the Desert Southwest will
persist into Monday as another reinforcing trough drops into the
Great Basin. Widespread breeziness is again anticipated and gusts
could still reach 30 mph across far eastern Gila County.
Latest GEFS/ECMWF ensemble suites remain in good agreement depicting
a general weakening of the persistent and anomalous western CONUS
trough. Gradual height rises early this week will translate into a
warming trend along with a continuation of the seasonably dry
conditions. General model consensus also indicates a weak eastern
Pacific ridge will consolidate with the westward-building
subtropical ridge Thursday/Friday east of the area, resulting in a
return to above normal temperatures. However, probabilities are
quite high that temperatures will remain well below daily records.
Cluster analysis depicts a forecast characterized by relatively low
variance into the weekend, with a high likelihood of at least
somewhat cooler conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2310Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Very minor wind issues should be the only weather concern through
Monday evening under clear skies. Confidence is good that W/SW gusts
20-25kt will gradually decouple during the mid evening, then be more
delayed than usual in switching to the nocturnal easterly direction.
East winds should only persist for a short time frame Monday morning
before reverting to a W/SW component by noon. Gusts may be less
pronounced Monday afternoon. Otherwise, minor slantwise visibility
issues could exist around sunset/sunrise due to lofted dust/smoke.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Some increased wind gusts will be the only weather issue through
Monday evening under clear skies. W/SW gusts 20-25kt will be common
this evening before gradually decoupling overnight. Wind trends
suggest directions becoming more northerly Monday morning and early
afternoon before backing to southwest with less gustiness.
Otherwise, lofted dust around the region will keep skies hazy
through tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and windy conditions will predominate across the Desert
Southwest today. Combined with near-record fuel dryness, this will
result in very high to extreme fire danger, particularly east of
Phoenix. Although cooler conditions are expected today, winds will
be stronger across southern Gila County, where gusts could reach 35
mph. Drier conditions are anticipated Monday with widespread minimum
RHs at or below 10 percent, however gusts as high as 30 mph will
remain possible across southern Gila County. Seasonably dry
conditions will linger through the week, though winds will be
lighter as high pressure builds across the region. A return to above
normal temperatures is also anticipated by midweek. Latest guidance
also suggests increased probabilities of hot/dry/windy conditions
late in the week ahead of a weak trough moving into the Great Basin.
Another cooling trend is likely next weekend, though temperatures
will remain slightly above normal.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ133.
CA...Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for CAZ562.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook, Twitter, and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 PM MDT Sun May 29 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 354 PM MDT Sun May 29 2022
Key Messages:
1) Strong winds and high fire danger expected Monday with Red Flag
Warnings hoisted for most of the area.
2) Light snow tonight central mountains with isolated gusty wind
producing thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
3) Some high wind potential for the San Luis Valley and southern I-
25 corridor for Monday.
Broad upper low over the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest
will remain in place through the 24 hour period with waves of energy
ejecting across northern portions of the area. First one has spread
showers and thunderstorms into the Continental Divide and this will
continue into the evening as the brunt of the forcing moves through.
The higher areas of the central mountains will see some light
snowfall accumulations above 11000 feet and given the steep lapse
rates could see some localized heavy snow bursts, graupel or even
small hail with the stronger embedded cells. Farther to the south
and east, critically dry humidity values combined with gusty winds
has brought critical fire weather conditions to most of southern CO.
The front has been slower to recede across the plains this afternoon
with KLAA still seeing east winds around 10 mph as of 3 PM. However
high res models continue to push south to southwesterly winds into
the area through the evening with the potential to meet the 3 hour
duration of critical fire weather conditions. Red Flag Warnings
will remain in place through 9 PM. As high based showers spread off
the mountains into the adjacent lower elevations this evening, there
is the potential for gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range mainly along
and north of highway 50 in localized areas given the strong
downdraft CAPE. High res models (HRRR and NAMNest) both depict a
wind shift from the northwest with varying magnitudes with these
across Pueblo and El Paso counties.
The cold front will make another push into the southeast plains
tonight before getting swept back out early Monday morning as strong
downward forcing moves in behind the deepening/ejecting upper low
across western NE. Getting mixed signals from the model blends and
high res models concerning high wind potential across the San Luis
Valley and southern I-25 corridor from Colorado City to Walsenburg.
While 12z HRRR and NAMNest along with 18z HRRR suggest these areas
could hit high wind criteria from mid morning through early
afternoon, the 18z NAMNest has backed off on this scenario. Will
bring wind gusts very close to high wind criteria with gusts up to
55 mph in the afternoon. Hopefully 00z runs will bring better
clarity. Regardless, very windy conditions with gusts in the 50 to
60 mph range will bring a return of critical fire weather conditions
to most of southern CO and have upgraded Fire Weather Watches to Red
Flag Warnings. Have also included zone 223 for elevations below 9000
feet where RHs are below 15 percent. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 354 PM MDT Sun May 29 2022
Key Messages:
1) Critical Fire Weather conditions across the SW Mtns and into
the San Luis Valley Tuesday and Wednesday.
2) Cooler across the plains with the potential for widespread
showers Tuesday night and Wednesday.
3) Warmer with potential for afternoon showers and storms for
later in the work week and into next weekend.
Monday night-Wednesday night...Latest models are coming into better
agreement of a break in between weather systems in the Monday night
and early Tuesday timeframe, as Monday`s system continues to
translate north and east into the Northern High Plains Monday night,
and secondary energy across the Intermountain West digs into the
Great Basin. Passing system sends a weak cold front across the
eastern plains Monday night, with breezy northerly winds into
early Tuesday morning becoming breezy easterly across the plains
Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, west to southwest flow aloft
increases across the central Rockies, as the Great Basin system
starts to translate north and east into eastern Utah through out
the day, and remains progged to continue to move out across
northern Colorado Tuesday night and Wednesday. The stronger
southwest winds look to mix down across western portions of the
area through the day Tuesday, leading to probable critical fire
weather conditions across the San Luis Valley and the lower
elevations of San Juan and La Gartia Mts, where Fire Weather
Watches have been kept and added to from 11 am to 9 pm Tuesday.
For the Tuesday night through Wednesday timeframe, models have also
come into much better agreement of more widespread overunning
precipitation developing across the eastern mountains and out across
the southeast plains, with strong waa as moisture within the
southwest flow aloft moves over the deep low level easterly flow.
Models do differ on the amount qpf across the area, though can`t
rule out some areas across the plains seeing upwards of 1/4 inch
of liquid through the day Wednesday. With the expected easterly
upslope, clouds, and precipitation, temperatures across the plains
on Wednesday look to be well below seasonal levels mainly in the
60s, while further west across the high mountain valleys, highs
look to warm into the 70s with continued breezy westerly winds
leading to probable critical fire weather conditions once again.
Thursday-Sunday...A warmer westerly flow pattern looks to develop
across the northern Tier and into the Rockies, with occasional
hard to time disturbances moving through the flow. This will allow
for temperatures to warm back to early summertime levels by the
end of the work week and into next weekend. The hard time
disturbances would lead to chances of mainly afternoon showers and
storms across the higher terrain, along with possible strong to
severe storms across the eastern plains, especially on Friday,
where models continue to indicate the potential for a developing
dry line.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 354 PM MDT Sun May 29 2022
Gusty southwest winds will continue this evening with localized
gusts to near 40-50 kts near any high based showers as they move off
the mountains this evening. This is most likely to impact KPUB and
KCOS through 02z. VCSH will be possible at KALS this evening with
clearing after 06z. Winds will stay elevated from the northwest at
10-20 kts for both KCOS and KPUB. KALS will see light winds
overnight with speeds under 15 kts. However winds will increase
early Monday morning for all three terminals with west wind gusts to
50 kts possible at KALS during the late morning and afternoon. KPUB
and KCOS will see gusts to 35 to 40 kts by late morning through the
afternoon. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-224-
226>237.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ222>224-
226>237.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for COZ223-224.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
Key Points:
- Warm and windy through tomorrow
- Severe storms possible late afternoon through nighttime hours
tomorrow
- Additional rounds of storms Tuesday into Wednesday bring locally
heavy rainfall and renewed flooding concerns
Sfc trough extends from southeastern CO through western KS into
central NE early this afternoon, which has resulted in a tight
pressure gradient across the CWA. South winds have reached advisory
criteria at a few locations and should slightly decrease this
evening and overnight, though gusty winds are expected to continue
into tomorrow. Wouldn`t rule out near-criteria conditions on a more
isolated basis and will monitor trends, but no changes have been
made to the advisory at this time. Have removed PoPs from north
central KS this evening with the better forcing being well to our
northwest and CAM guidance largely keeping convection out of the
area. The only exception to this is overnight, closer to sunrise,
with a few CAMs once again showing a weak signal for isolated
elevated convection within the WAA regime as we`ve seen the last
couple of mornings. Added slight chance PoPs for a brief period
tomorrow morning near the KS/NE border, although that could extend
further south if we trend more toward the latest HRRR run from 18Z.
Most focus has been on the potential for severe storms tomorrow.
What we do know at this point is the environment looks favorable for
severe weather by the afternoon, especially along the dryline. Main
question revolves around the coverage of storms, both around
initiation time and into the evening. At this time, the favored
scenario is for storms to develop along the dryline late in the
afternoon, which is progged to be located in the Marysville-
Manhattan-Abilene vicinity. The atmosphere would be very unstable
with an eroded cap by this time with 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE and 50+
kt effective shear. Supercells look to develop initially before
congealing into lines and/or clusters. Hodographs become more
elongated into the early evening with the increase of the LLJ. This
would favor large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes all being
possible. Later into the evening and overnight, the event should
evolve into more of a hail and wind threat with the cold front
catching up to the dryline and pushing southeast across the area.
The higher probabilities are in the northern half of the CWA, but
everyone should at least be prepared for severe weather potential -
east central areas would see it later in the night if it holds
together.
The GFS has the frontal boundary south of the area by Tuesday
afternoon, but the NAM continues to keep it a bit slower, so we
continue to keep an eye on potential for redevelopment Tuesday
afternoon mainly in east central areas. Even if the sfc boundary is
further south, the 850mb front hangs around into Wednesday and with
additional disturbances within the flow, chances for storms exist
through mid-week. Good moisture transport along with Pwat of at
least 1.5" should result in efficient rain producers, and areas that
see repeated rounds of rain could see a return of flooding concerns
with more saturated grounds.
High pressure moves in for Thursday and Friday with cooler
temperatures and highs in the 70s. Another chance for storms may
arrive late in the week as another system moves through the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
LLWS is once again the main hazard especially over the first half
of the period. Winds around FL015 increase to 60-65kts or possibly
a bit stronger generally soon after sunset lasting an hour or two
after sunrise. Surface winds relax but only slightly overnight and
remain generally from the south. Can`t rule out a few isolated or
scattered elevated showers or storms especially around KMHK by
around sunrise. However, confidence is too low at this time for
inclusion. Potential for severe weather increases by the end of
the forecast period and into the next cycle.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ020>022-034>038-
054-055-058.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Drake