Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/29/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
859 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 858 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 Critical fire weather conditions on the plains east and south of the Palmer Divide lasted a few hours longer than expected, so I extended our Red Flag Warning for fire zone 247 (southern Lincoln and southeastern Elbert Counties) through about sunset. Conditions have improved and I allowed the warning to expire. We maintain our Fire Weather Watch for the same area tomorrow afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies should persist overnight but the lower elevations remain mostly dry and only light precipitation should be confined to the high terrain. The forecast is performing well with only minor updates this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 Tonight, the ridge axis aloft will shift to the east with an increasing southwesterly flow developing. Instability still appears to be limited, with weak high based convection developing with the cloud deck around 500 mb. Still looks like just some virga will develop along the urban corridor, but chances for thunderstorms will improve over the mountains and maybe NE corner of the state by 00z. Most of the HiRes models develop the strongest thunderstorm potential east of CO this evening, so pops in the northeast corner will still be low, 10 percent at best. More a mix of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over the mountains this evening. The HRRR shows better shower and thunderstorm coverage there. A cold front does push across the plains late tonight/early Sunday morning, but more of a weak/subtle wind shift expected. On Sunday, the upper level trough will be over southern ID with a moderate to strong southwesterly flow over CO. The forecast area will be on the north side of a 90kt upper level jet over southeast CO. Moderate mid/upper large scale QG ascent developing (around minus 20 mb/hr) over northern and eastern CO by late afternoon. Increasing PWAT values to around 0.6 inches at Denver, with a lowering LCL to around 700 mb Sunday afternoon. It will be cooler with high temperatures closer to seasonal normals in the mid 70s. The models show better shear and instability profiles for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. NAM12 forecast sounding near Sterling indicates surface based CAPES 1000-1200 j/kg Sunday afternoon, with sfc-3km SRH values around 100 m2/s2. Model reflectivity also support the strongest storm development to the north and northeast of Denver in the afternoon. SPC assessment of Marginal/Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms still looks reasonable. Main threats would be damaging wind and large hail, but enough speed/directional shear to support isolated tornadoes too. Much lower dewpoints over the Palmer Divide would form a dryline, with a Denver cyclone forming a boundary that should help initiate thunderstorm after 21z east/northeast of Denver. To the south of the line, critical fire weather conditions possible over southern Lincoln County similar to this afternoon. Reference the fire weather discussion. In the mountains of mix of rain/snow showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with the snow level above 10 thousand feet. Higher southwest facing slopes could see 1-2 inches of snowfall. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 Cooler unsettled weather is expected across North Central and Northeastern Colorado Sunday night through Tuesday as a large upper level trough dominates the western half of the U.S. Sunday night into Monday morning, a closed low within the upper trough will track across Southern Wyoming with a 115KT+ upper jet over Southern Colorado. In addition, models are showing a cold front moving across Northeastern Colorado during the evening hours with some upslope flow developing across the plains. The combination of QG ascent from the upper trough and jet, and increased moisture and upslope flow should result in a continuation of scattered to numerous showers and storms across much of the forecast area. Some light snow is forecasted across the mountains above 10,000 feet with only light accumulation expected over the higher peaks. Further east across the plains, Some of the models are indicating CAPE`s over 1000 J/KG and plenty of shear which would suggest the potential for a few strong to severe storms during the early evening hours. Cool and showery weather is expected Monday afternoon through Wednesday with max temperatures in the lower to mid 60s on the plains. The cool and stable airmass should limit any thunderstorm activity both days. A potent shortwave moving across the state should enhance precipitation chances across much of the CWA late Tuesday into Wednesday with a few inches of snow possible over the higher mountain peaks. Warmer and drier conditions are expected Thursday into the weekend as upper level high pressure builds over the Rocky Mountain Region. More typical June weather is expected Friday into the weekend as increasing low level moisture is progged to move into the plains with isolated to scattered storms possible. The combination of increased instability, ample shear along with an occasional passing upper level shortwave could lead to some of the storms becoming strong to severe. At this time, it appears that any severe threat will be focused along a dry line east of Denver. However, with the uncertainty of outflow interactions and the location of the Denver Convergence Zone, can`t rule out the possibility of of one or two stronger storms further west across the Front Range Urban Corridor. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 552 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 Winds are currently out of the WNW to NW at 10-15 kts. Winds trend westerly this evening gradually returning to light drainage before midnight. Sunday morning, may see a brief period of SSE winds at 8-11 kts before transitioning to SW. Most model guidance shows increased chances for showers/thunderstorms aoa 18z. Although confidence is lower in the chances a storm may directly pass over the terminal, the best chances will be aoa 21z as showers/storms become higher in coverage. Gusty winds will be the primary threat with the storms. Dry conditions in the low levels will support virga earlier in the afternoon before better moisture moves in, so gusty outflow winds are possible. With showers/storms in the area, confidence is lower in the wind direction for the afternoon period, but will likely have a W/WNW component. There will be a push of NE winds later in the afternoon with some variation in the timing from model to model (Generally in the 22-00z timeframe). Will mostly see VFR conditions for the period with brief periods of MVFR possible in a passing shower or thunderstorm. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 No changes to the ongoing Red Flag Warning this afternoon. On Sunday, critical fire weather conditions possible over southern Lincoln County similar to this afternoon. Consequently, we issued a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday afternoon too. Cooler and wetter weather will reduce the fire danger across the forecast next week next week. The exception may be across extreme southeastern Elbert and southern Lincoln Counties where low relative humidity and gusty winds could result in elevated fire weather conditons Monday afternoon. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for COZ247. && $$ UPDATE...EJD SHORT TERM...Cooper LONG TERM...jk AVIATION...Mensch FIRE WEATHER...Cooper/jk
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
955 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through most of next week. A cold front could approach the region late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Late Saturday evening: As expected, isolated showers along the sea breeze/inland SC counties had dissipated, and residual strato/alto cumulus debris should gradually dissipate as well. Cannot discern any basis for isolated showers depicted by HRRR overnight, so forecasts remain rain-free. Otherwise, forecasts remain on track and required only minor hourly adjustments to dewpoints/RH, winds and cloud cover. Low-level moisture, light winds and mainly clear skies should support patchy fog away from the coast later tonight into early Sunday. Low temperatures will range from the middle/upper 60s inland to the lower/middle 70s on the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A weak upper low over the southeast U.S. on Sunday will gradually dissipate. Later Sunday through Tuesday, a mid/upper level ridge centered over the mid Atlantic states will dominate. Deep layer moisture will gradually increase through the period, mainly south of the Savannah River. Have kept slight chance to chance showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/early evening, mainly over the GA and well inland SC zones. Temperatures expected to be a few degrees above normal, generally around 90 well inland, and lower to mid 80s near the coast. Lows will be mild too, in the mid to upper 60s inland, and lower 70s coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A deep layer ridge is shown by all models to setup over the entire southeast U.S. through much of the work week. This is expected to keep rain chances below 15% Wednesday and Thursday, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, but too low to mention in the forecast. By Friday and Saturday, model indicate that a weak upper trough and associated surface front could approach the region from the northwest, but likely stall near or just north of the area. These features may bring better deep layer moisture, and therefore higher chances for convection/rainfall. Have continued low end chance PoPs for both Friday and Saturday, which is actually close to climo. Temperatures expected to remain above normal. Highest generally in the lower to mid 90s well inland, and mid to upper 80s closer to the coast. However, with surface dewpoints mixing down into the lower to mid 60s inland and near 70 coast each day, heat indices are expected to remain below 100. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR until after 06z. Low-level moisture, light winds and mainly clear skies should support patchy fog later tonight into early Sunday. Probability for MVFR visibility remains highest at the SC terminals, and brief IFR visibilities cannot be ruled out. Then, VFR expected Sunday. Most likely, any afternoon showers/thunderstorms will remain isolated and inland from the terminals. Extended Aviation Outlook: Generally low probabilities for flight restrictions with mainly isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible, especially Tuesday over KSAV. && .MARINE... High pressure will provide tranquil conditions overnight. South/southeast sea breeze should average below 15 kt and seas should remain at or below 3 ft through tonight. Any patchy fog late tonight/early Sunday should not impact Charleston Harbor or the Savannah River entrance. No highlights expected through the extended period. High pressure will generally remain centered over the northern half of the waters, keeping more variable winds 15 kts or less over the SC waters and southeast winds over the GA waters. Higher winds likely near the coast each afternoon with the seabreeze, possibly with gusts near 20 kts. Isolated mainly morning and early afternoon showers/thunderstorms, especially GA waters where deep layer moisture will be more plentiful. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JRL/SPR SHORT TERM...RFM LONG TERM...RFM AVIATION...RFM/SPR MARINE...JRL/RFM/SPR
National Weather Service Hastings NE
804 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 745 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 The main forecast concern this evening will be thunderstorm development this evening continuing into the overnight hours. Current expectations is still for the majority of the storms to be to the north and west where a line of thunderstorms has already developed. However, a second line of thunderstorms may well develop over the next hour or two over portions of Dawson county and progress northeast into the early morning hours Sunday. Thunderstorms are expected to remain roughly along and northwest of a line from Lexington to Ord. Any storms that develop should be elevated, with large hail up to a little larger than quarters and strong winds in excess of 60 mph associated with any storm that occurs, with higher confidence in the damaging winds at this point. Also, strong downburst winds may cause isolated areas of blowing dust out ahead of the storm, especially ahead of decaying thunderstorms. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Dawson, Sherman, and Valley counties in south central Nebraska until 1 AM Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 357 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Overall its shaping up to be a nice, warm day with highs still expected to top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Aloft we are in southwest flow as a large upper trof deepens over the western CONUS. Weak chances still exist for storms to scrape our northwestern most portions of the area this evening mainly between 7 and 11 pm. The few storms that could clip our area have the chance of being strong to marginally severe with dewpoints right around 60, about 3,000 j/kg of MUCAPE, and 35-40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. The main threats would be hail to around the size of quarters and wind gusts to around 60 mph. Though based on recent runs of the HRRR which have trended further and further north with any precip, this seems less and less likely to impact our area. Tomorrow will be warm again with southwest flow aloft ahead of the main trof to the west. Highs will once again be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. As a sfc trof and frontal boundary sag south and stall across the area we will once again see a chance for storms. Tomorrow will however pose a greater risk of severe storms with a more supportive environment. SPC has the northern third of the area in an enhanced risk with the main threat being hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to around 70 mph. Within the threat area, dew points are expected to be in the 60s along with modest MUCAPE around 1,500 j/kg, and strong deep layer shear around 50+ kts. While there is a 5% risk area for tornadoes in the northeast, this threat looks to be more limited in nature due to weaker 0-1 km SRH and little 0-3 km CAPE...although the sigtor parameter is non-zero. Monday won`t be quite as warm with highs in the 80s, with the first of two upper level waves embedded in the longwave trough forecast to push through the area. As the sfc cold front shifts to the southeast the threat for a few strong to marginally severe storms will also shift to the southeast. Confidence is lower with regards to PoPs on Monday as a lot will depend on the location of the front. Models also indicate stronger winds on either side of the front on Monday, with gusts possibly upwards of 35 mph at times mainly southeast of the Tri-Cities...although a few models suggest higher. Behind the front on Tuesday conditions will be cooler with highs in the 70s and northwest sfc winds. Aloft we will remain in southwest flow with the second embedded wave expected to cross the intermountain west. As this wave progresses eastward with the main trof, weak chances for showers return Tuesday evening and continue to increase through Wednesday. Wednesday will be even cooler, with highs only in the 60s across the board. Thursday will be mostly zonal flow aloft with shortwave ridging off to the west. Expect a slight warm up into the 70s along with drier weather. Friday transitions to slightly northwest flow aloft ahead of the shortwave ridging to the west with mild temperatures in the upper 70s. Spotty chances for showers also reenter the forecast on Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday) Issued at 745 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Cloud cover will mainly be mid- to high level clouds at or above 8k feet. Winds should remain breezy out of the south tonight at around 15 kts at KGRI and generally a little less at KEAR. Overnight expect LLWS from around 04Z to 10Z at both TAF sites. Winds will shift direction a lot Sunday thanks to a frontal boundary moving through, with southwesterly winds at KGRI and northwesterly at KEAR by mid-morning. By afternoon, winds will again be south to southwesterly at both TAF sites. Winds will continue to be a little tricky as the front remains stalled across the area at the end of the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Hickford DISCUSSION...Shawkey AVIATION...Hickford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
911 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 911 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 Relative humidity recovery is in full effect with wind gusts also lessening for more than 50 percent of the fire weather zones. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning for today has been cancelled. Some localized conditions remain possible for the next hour or two but overall, relative humidity is on the rise above 15 percent and wind gusts are lessening below the 25 mph gust threshold. Also, let the wind advisory expire on time at 8 pm this evening as winds have lessened below the 45 mph gust threshold. Gusts in the 20s and 30s are still occurring in some areas but should lessen overnight. Speaking of wind, based on the latest guidance, decided to issue a Wind Advisory for Sunday afternoon and evening for the lower elevations of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, where gusts in the 35 to 50 mph range are expected. Based on what happened today, despite cloud cover, the majority of the lower valleys hit wind advisory criteria with gusts exceeding 45 mph at times. So expect more of the same across the Four Corners where the jet will be positioned and better mixing should occur. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 405 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 Strong southwest winds, in some cases aided by showers or virga, developed over the region late this morning and have continued through the afternoon. Meanwhile, along and south of the I-70 corridor, those winds combined with dry vegetation and low relative humidity have brought critical fire weather conditions to the area. The pressure gradient at the surface and aloft will remain strong south of the cool front being driven southward across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this afternoon. Therefore, Wind Advisories and Red Flag Warnings will continue through 8 and 10 PM this evening, respectively. Showers trailing the front will spread southward overnight as the trough over the West deepens over the Great Basin. Decent mid- level and jet level lift is indicated across the northern two- thirds of the forecast area tonight which will drive this precipitation. Snow will fall over the higher peaks tonight with snow levels hovering at the 10 Kft level and higher. The front washes out during the night according to all operational runs. Due to clouds and adiabatic warming associated with precipitation productions, overnight lows will be pretty mild as previously forecast. On Sunday, the trough over the Great Basin deepens further and shifts eastward driving another cold front southward across the northern half of the forecast area during the day. Meanwhile, winds aloft will remain quite strong and lapse rates will steepen as cooling occurs at the 500 mb level. CAPE is expected to range from 750 to 1000 J/kg across the north with decent straight line shear. This has prompted SPC to put the northern zones in the marginal threat area for thunderstorms with the primary threat being strong winds. HRRR and NSSL-WRF showed bowing structures which seemed to fit with this scenario. Meanwhile, milder, drier and continued breezy/windy conditions across portions of southwest Colorado are expected to bring another round of a critical fire weather conditions. Winds aren`t expected to be as strong as those recorded today, so will not issue Wind Advisories for Sunday with this package. Showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected to be widespread over the mountains and areas along and north of the I-70 corridor. Significantly cooler temperatures are expected under these conditions, though not to the same degree across the south. Showers continue across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area Sunday, but will be decreasing as the night progresses. Meanwhile, the trough moves overhead and the front drops south of the UT/CO borders. As a result, overnight lows will be much cooler, though the threat of a freeze in the valleys is presently low. Meanwhile, snow will continue in the higher reaches of the mountains, however accumulations at and below pass level are expected to be pretty light with melting limiting impacts. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 405 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 Unsettled and cooler than normal weather is likely to start off the long term period as a large and broad trough remains parked over the western CONUS. Several vortices embedded within the parent trough will rotate through the northern Four Corners Monday through Wednesday. The cold air aloft, as evidenced by 500mb temperatures near -20C, combined with the strong late May sun angle will produce steep lapse rates and marginal instability each afternoon. This will result in a fair amount of clouds and showers, especially over the higher terrain along the Continental Divide and in the adjacent northern valleys. Snow levels will start off around 8,500 feet Monday afternoon and will rise to over 10,000 feet by the same time on Wednesday. Additional snowfall amounts during this period aren`t looking particularly impressive with perhaps a trace up to a few inches possible way up high. Rainfall amounts down low won`t add up to much either. Outside of the higher terrain and higher valleys, mainly dry weather is expected with just low odds of a brief sprinkle here and there. Temperatures are favored to be quite cool for this time of year. Highs are likely to be roughly 10 to 20 degrees below normal on Monday and 5 to 15 degrees below normal on Tuesday. Temperatures start to warm up on Wednesday as the parent trough exits stage right, but highs will still skew slightly below average. Given the higher humidity and lower temperatures, any fire weather concerns are expected to be confined to near the Colorado and New Mexico border, if anywhere. The last shortwave on the backside of the now departed trough is progged by ensembles to lift out of our CWA Wednesday into Thursday. Beyond that, WPC ensemble clusters are in near unanimous agreement that a strong ridge of high pressure builds in over the Great Basin and Four Corners to round out the week. Underneath this ridge, expect a return to drier and much warmer than normal conditions under mostly sunny skies. Afternoon breezes will need to be monitored for potential critical fire weather, but winds should be lighter underneath the ridge. That, in turn, should keep conditions fairly localized. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 606 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 Southwest winds will continue to gust in the 25 to 35 kt range with some sites gusting up to 40 to 50 kts at times. Scattered to broken cloud cover is still working across the area and is expected to increase in coverage overnight with showers moving into the northwest portions of the area as the cold front approaches. VCSH is possible after 06Z with prevailing showers after 15Z Sunday. CIGS should remain above ILS breakpoints until after 15Z when prevailing showers enter the picture, especially across the north and higher elevation sites were better chances of wetting rain exist. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also expected by Sunday afternoon, some of which could be strong. Erratic gusty outflow winds seem to be the primary concern, especially in the lower elevations where chance of wetting rain is lower. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 405 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022 A strong cold front arrives tonight and will bring an increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms. Humidity levels will be rising behind the front, decreasing the fire weather risk across the north. The front is expected to push into the Four Corners area Sunday. Continued strong winds and low relative humidity ahead of the front is expected to result in additional fire weather concerns for portions of southwest Colorado. Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Colorado fire weather zones 207 below 6500 feet and 290. By Monday, the fire weather risk shifts primarily towards the New Mexico state line. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ020>022. Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Sunday for COZ207-290. UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ022-029. && $$ UPDATE...MDA SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...MDM AVIATION...MDA FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
848 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 732 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through Monday night. Severe weather is possible tonight and late Sunday. An outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including some strong tornadoes and very large hail, is becoming increasingly likely Monday afternoon. - Very warm and humid this holiday weekend, then turning cooler again later next week. Today/tonight... We cleared out nicely this morning behind the morning convection, though did get some gusty winds this morning over south central MN before the overnight LLJ weakened. With 925mb temps exceeding 20C, we`ve seen a few sites down around Fairmont and Redwood Falls get up near 90. We`ll stay mild through tonight as south winds continue through the night, with most of the area remaining in the 60s. The one exception will be up near Mora and Mille Lacs, where they cold see a cooler airmass drop down from Lake Superior. From the precip perspective, we`ll be dry and capped through the afternoon, with any activity we see this period happening late tonight. There will be two areas to watch for convection tonight. One will be with what is expected to be thunderstorms that develop late this afternoon near the central Neb/SD border. These storms will track northeast through the night, with west of a Redwood Falls to Little Falls most likely to see the remnants of these storms. East of the Redwood Falls to Little Falls line, the threat for convection will come from the enhancement of the nocturnal LLJ across the central Plains. On the nose of this, the RAP shows a pool of higher theta-e at h85 coming up out of IA and across southern MN. This will bring about another threat for some sunrise showers/storms, though that potential for Sunday morning is looking much lower than it did for this morning. From the severe threat, any activity we see this period will be elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates will support a hail threat for any stronger convection we see. Sunday... We`ll see a surface low over northeast NoDak, with a cold front extending south to another surface low that will be developing over south central Neb (this Neb low will become our problem Memorial Day). For Sunday, we looked to be capped, with the risk of storms during the day on Sunday greatest in northwest MN closer to the surface low and north of the capping. For the MPX area, the greatest concern severe wise is for a severe MCS to come out of Neb and across western/central MN Sunday evening. Given the strengthening wind fields expected, a bowing MCS posing a significant wind risk, along with your QLCS tornadoes, looks to be our greatest risk Sunday evening. The Day 2 convective outlook covers this threat well, with enough uncertainty being present with the scenario actually playing out to keep the SPC from upgrading to a Moderate risk. Monday... This continues to be the most concerning day from a severe weather risk perspective as that Nebraska low moves up to eastern SD/western MN and deepens on Memorial Day. In terms of forcing, shear, and instability, this setup has many similarities to what we typically see in the upper MS Valley on severe weather outbreak days. This is the one day this weekend where afternoon convection looks possible, with all modes of severe weather possible. Looking at hodographs on Monday, they are very, very long, but relatively straight near the surface forcing features, so this indicates that we should see pretty rapid upscale growth with any activity we see develop on Monday, but it will likely be a rather chaotic setup with lots mergers and other cell interactions going on. The severe risk continues to look greatest over western MN, where the cold front/surface low look to reside during peak heating, but we will see an increasing wind risk through much of the night as one or more lines of storms advance east with the cold front, though the risk will be diminishing by the time you get out toward Eau Claire as storms will be encountering lower stability as they move east, along with your typical nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer. Tuesday through next weekend... The h5 low that will help drive our severe threat Memorial day will continue north into Canada on Tuesday, where it will merge with another h5 low coming out of northwest Canada. The combined h5 low that will result from this merger will then stay more or less stationary over northern Manitoba and northwest Ontario all the way into the weekend. This will result in a seasonably strong zonal flow across the north central CONUS from Tuesday into the weekend. The most notable element of this pattern shift will be a noticeably cooler and less humid airmass from Tuesday into next weekend. For precip chances, Tuesday continues to trend drier, with the best chance for precip residing over MN, where a cold mid-level trough will exist, allowing for the possibility of some diurnally driven showers. The next chance will come Thursday night as a weak cold front passes through the upper MS Valley. The NBM is still dry for us Thursday night/Friday morning as the best upper forcing will going across the upper Great Lakes, but it wouldn`t be surprising to see some low chances eventually appear. After that, where this boundary sets up next weekend will become the focus for additional showers and storms, with the ECMWF/GFS showing the potential for an overrunning precip event to develop. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 702 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 VFR to start for all terminals with clouds increasing overnight. A quick-hitting round of showers and weak thunderstorms will move through generally in the 10z-14z timeframe for western MN, thus kept in PROB30 mention. Chances less than that for southern/eastern MN TAF sites (and not expected at all at the WI TAF sites) but some adjustments may be needed for the 06z TAFs based on newer model guidance coming in. MVFR ceilings then look to briefly settle in late morning to early afternoon until a weak surface boundary lifts north, then high MVFR to low VFR ceilings will remain in place through the rest of the afternoon. Gusty SE winds will also commence during the afternoon. Chances for stronger TSRA ramp up after 00z tomorrow evening so these chances will be shown in later TAFs. KMSP...VFR through late morning but with the first of a couple rounds of LLWS expected to develop, which will remain through sunrise. After daytime mixing commences and the low level jetting weakens a bit, stronger SE surface winds will take hold and remain in place. Chances too low at this time to include any mention of sunrise thunderstorms moving through but will re-evaluate at the 06z TAF time. Another round of LLWS is likely at and after sunset through Sunday evening, but accompanying this may well be a round of thunderstorms later Sunday evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR/TSRA late. Wind S 10-15G25 kts. Tue...Chance MVFR/-SHRA. Wind W 10-15G25 bcmg NW. Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ UPDATE...JPC DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...JPC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1105 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 ...AVIATION UPDATE... Key Messages: 1. Breezy/windy conditions Today through Tuesday. 2. Warming trend continues today, with warmer than normal conditions through Tuesday. 3. Best precipitation chances will return to the area Tuesday evening through Wednesday night. .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Showers and thunderstorms were observed to our west this morning as upper level energy and a low level jet developed over the Plains and moved east. As a result, some light showers pushed eastward into far southeast KS and southwest MO before diminishing out by late morning. Models show the upper ridge continuing over the area, causing surface high pressure in the east and raised heights to allow for a fairly dry start to the weekend and above normal afternoon highs, with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s observed across the area. Mid to high level clouds have lowered temperatures slightly, but some additional areas may still reach the low 80s as the afternoon progresses. An upper level trough making its way onshore over the west coast will continue to propagate eastward, tightening the pressure gradient, and allowing for a breezy holiday weekend. Gusts up to 30 mph have been observed so far this morning/afternoon in some areas, which will continue to be possible through the remainder of the day. Went ahead and included slight pops over the western CWA again for tonight as the LLJ enhances just to our west and brings some moisture transport into central/eastern KS. HRRR guidance shows some light sprinkles possible, however ensembles aren`t picking up on this potential, and Bufkit forecast soundings show a lot of dry air at the surface, so confidence is pretty low. But if showers do develop over KS, they could push east into the western portion of the CWA, warranting the slight pops. Otherwise, overnight lows in the 60s to low 70s can be expected tonight. As the trough to the west continues to push east amplifying the ridging pattern, the forecast area will find itself on the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Sunday will mark the breeziest day of the holiday weekend, with gusts up to 30-40 mph possible for the majority of the CWA, and gusts up to 20-25 mph for the eastern Ozarks. The above-normal temperature trend will continue, as afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are likely. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Memorial Day will yield a warm, breezy day with NBM guidance giving high confidence of afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s across the area. With the continued tightened pressure gradient, wind gusts up to 25-30 kts are possible across the area, with the higher gusts in the northeastern portion of the CWA. Tuesday will mark the last day of the forecast period with above normal temperatures, as NBM percentiles show afternoon highs in the mid 80s. The upper level low to our west will push northeast of the area, dragging a cold front through the forecast area during the latter portion of Tuesday into Wednesday morning. NBM as well as some ensembles are showing slight precipitation chances increasing ahead of the front Monday night into Tuesday morning, however most GEFS plumes and ensembles show better chances of precipitation with the frontal passage. Looking at the 6-hr NBM probabilities of QPF >0.1", the higher chances of precipitation occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with the cold front. There are still some discrepancies with timing and placement of this system, but as the upper low pushes onto the west coast later today, future model runs may have a better handle on it, yielding more agreement between ensembles. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Gusty southerly winds will continue through the TAF period, mainly during the daytime hours. LLWS is expected at all TAF sites tonight then again Sunday night. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melto LONG TERM...Melto AVIATION...Titus
forecast discussion, HREF guidance continues to show a stark drop in
winds as they approach the Colorado River Valley, so kept the region
out of any wind or fire products. No changes were made to the Red Flag Warnings, as enhanced fire danger persists each afternoon, today and Sunday. Recreation involving flames or sparks is ill-advised due to the high likelihood of fire starts and spreads. Wind speeds will be greatly reduced Monday afternoon, with northwesterly post-frontal winds across the area. Memorial Day will also be the coolest day of the forecast period, as ridging sets up quickly behind the exiting trough. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday. The Tuesday through Friday time period should be relatively quiet as temperatures steadily rise from around 8 degrees below normal on Tuesday to around 5 degrees above normal on Thursday before plateauing. Expect dry conditions to continue with occasional breezes as a persistent southwest flow sets up. && .FIRE WEATHER...Strong afternoon winds and low afternoon relative humidities will result in high fire danger each afternoon through Sunday for most of southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. Red Flag Warnings persist from 12 PM to 8PM today and Sunday as a result. Higher humidity will move into the Spring Mountains and Sheep Range today, with values between 20 and 30 percent, but will drop once again on Sunday. Sunday, the wind direction should shield the Colorado River Valley from critical winds, mitigating fire concerns there. Monday, wind speeds drop below critical thresholds. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy southwest winds will continue through this afternoon with the strongest winds expected through the evening. Winds will decrease somewhat, but stay elevated overnight before a cold front moves through the Valley tomorrow morning and shifts winds to the northwest to prevail through Sunday. Right now it looks like that shift would occur between 13Z and 15Z. SCT to BKN clouds AOA 15kft will continue to move across the area into this afternoon but should decrease to FEW AOA 25kft by this evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Gusty conditions will continue for all sites today into tonight. For KBIH, winds will mainly be northerly throughout the TAF period, although a westerly component may be seen for a few hours after 21Z. Winds should return to the north by tonight. Winds at KDAG will be westerly through the period with gusts over 40kts likely this afternoon and evening. Winds will be mainly southwest to south at the lower Colorado River sites. Smoke from a nearby wildfire may reduce visibilities at times at KEED and blowing dust will be possible at KDAG. SCT to BKN clouds AOA 15kft will continue to move across the area into this afternoon and early evening but should decrease to FEW AOA 25kft by late this evening at all sites. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Pierce SHORT TERM...Varian LONG TERM...Salmen AVIATION...TB3 For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: or follow us on Facebook and Twitter