Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/29/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

 859 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022

Critical fire weather conditions on the plains east and south of
the Palmer Divide lasted a few hours longer than expected, so I
extended our Red Flag Warning for fire zone 247 (southern Lincoln
and southeastern Elbert Counties) through about sunset. Conditions
have improved and I allowed the warning to expire. We maintain
our Fire Weather Watch for the same area tomorrow afternoon.
Mostly cloudy skies should persist overnight but the lower
elevations remain mostly dry and only light precipitation should
be confined to the high terrain. The forecast is performing well
with only minor updates this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022

Tonight, the ridge axis aloft will shift to the east with an
increasing southwesterly flow developing. Instability still
appears to be limited, with weak high based convection developing
with the cloud deck around 500 mb. Still looks like just some
virga will develop along the urban corridor, but chances for
thunderstorms will improve over the mountains and maybe NE corner
of the state by 00z. Most of the HiRes models develop the
strongest thunderstorm potential east of CO this evening, so pops
in the northeast corner will still be low, 10 percent at best.
More a mix of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over
the mountains this evening. The HRRR shows better shower and
thunderstorm coverage there. A cold front does push across the
plains late tonight/early Sunday morning, but more of a
weak/subtle wind shift expected.

On Sunday, the upper level trough will be over southern ID with a
moderate to strong southwesterly flow over CO.  The forecast area
will be on the north side of a 90kt upper level jet over southeast
CO. Moderate mid/upper large scale QG ascent developing (around
minus 20 mb/hr) over northern and eastern CO by late afternoon.
Increasing PWAT values to around 0.6 inches at Denver, with a
lowering LCL to around 700 mb Sunday afternoon.  It will be cooler
with high temperatures closer to seasonal normals in the mid 70s.
The models show better shear and instability profiles for
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. NAM12 forecast sounding near
Sterling indicates surface based CAPES 1000-1200 j/kg Sunday
afternoon, with sfc-3km SRH values around 100 m2/s2.  Model
reflectivity also support the strongest storm development to the
north and northeast of Denver in the afternoon. SPC assessment of
Marginal/Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms still looks reasonable.
Main threats would be damaging wind and large hail, but enough
speed/directional shear to support isolated tornadoes too. Much
lower dewpoints over the Palmer Divide would form a dryline, with a
Denver cyclone forming a boundary that should help initiate
thunderstorm after 21z east/northeast of Denver. To the south of the
line, critical fire weather conditions possible over southern
Lincoln County similar to this afternoon. Reference the fire weather
discussion. In the mountains of mix of rain/snow showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon, with the snow level above 10
thousand feet. Higher southwest facing slopes could see 1-2 inches
of snowfall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022

Cooler unsettled weather is expected across North Central and
Northeastern Colorado Sunday night through Tuesday as a large
upper level trough dominates the western half of the U.S. Sunday
night into Monday morning, a closed low within the upper trough
will track across Southern Wyoming with a 115KT+ upper jet over
Southern Colorado. In addition, models are showing a cold front
moving across Northeastern Colorado during the evening hours with
some upslope flow developing across the plains. The combination of
QG ascent from the upper trough and jet, and increased moisture
and upslope flow should result in a continuation of scattered to
numerous showers and storms across much of the forecast area. Some
light snow is forecasted across the mountains above 10,000 feet
with only light accumulation expected over the higher peaks.
Further east across the plains, Some of the models are indicating
CAPE`s over 1000 J/KG and plenty of shear which would suggest the
potential for a few strong to severe storms during the early
evening hours.

Cool and showery weather is expected Monday afternoon through
Wednesday with max temperatures in the lower to mid 60s on the
plains. The cool and stable airmass should limit any thunderstorm
activity both days. A potent shortwave moving across the state
should enhance precipitation chances across much of the CWA late
Tuesday into Wednesday with a few inches of snow possible over the
higher mountain peaks.

Warmer and drier conditions are expected Thursday into the weekend
as upper level high pressure builds over the Rocky Mountain Region.
More typical June weather is expected Friday into the weekend as
increasing low level moisture is progged to move into the plains
with isolated to scattered storms possible. The combination of
increased instability, ample shear along with an occasional passing
upper level shortwave could lead to some of the storms becoming
strong to severe. At this time, it appears that any severe threat
will be focused along a dry line east of Denver. However, with the
uncertainty of outflow interactions and the location of the Denver
Convergence Zone, can`t rule out the possibility of of one or two
stronger storms further west across the Front Range Urban Corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 552 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022

Winds are currently out of the WNW to NW at 10-15 kts. Winds
trend westerly this evening gradually returning to light drainage
before midnight. Sunday morning, may see a brief period of SSE
winds at 8-11 kts before transitioning to SW. Most model guidance
shows increased chances for showers/thunderstorms aoa 18z.
Although confidence is lower in the chances a storm may directly
pass over the terminal, the best chances will be aoa 21z as
showers/storms become higher in coverage. Gusty winds will be the
primary threat with the storms. Dry conditions in the low levels
will support virga earlier in the afternoon before better moisture
moves in, so gusty outflow winds are possible. With
showers/storms in the area, confidence is lower in the wind
direction for the afternoon period, but will likely have a W/WNW
component. There will be a push of NE winds later in the afternoon
with some variation in the timing from model to model (Generally
in the 22-00z timeframe). Will mostly see VFR conditions for the
period with brief periods of MVFR possible in a passing shower or
thunderstorm.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022

No changes to the ongoing Red Flag Warning this afternoon. On
Sunday, critical fire weather conditions possible over southern
Lincoln County similar to this afternoon. Consequently, we issued
a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday afternoon too. Cooler and
wetter weather will reduce the fire danger across the forecast
next week next week. The exception may be across extreme southeastern
Elbert and southern Lincoln Counties where low relative humidity
and gusty winds could result in elevated fire weather conditons
Monday afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EJD
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...jk
AVIATION...Mensch
FIRE WEATHER...Cooper/jk



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Charleston SC

 955 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through most of next week. A cold
front could approach the region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Late Saturday evening: As expected, isolated showers along the
sea breeze/inland SC counties had dissipated, and residual
strato/alto cumulus debris should gradually dissipate as well.
Cannot discern any basis for isolated showers depicted by HRRR
overnight, so forecasts remain rain-free. Otherwise, forecasts
remain on track and required only minor hourly adjustments to
dewpoints/RH, winds and cloud cover. Low-level moisture, light
winds and mainly clear skies should support patchy fog away
from the coast later tonight into early Sunday. Low temperatures
will range from the middle/upper 60s inland to the lower/middle
70s on the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak upper low over the southeast U.S. on Sunday will gradually
dissipate. Later Sunday through Tuesday, a mid/upper level ridge
centered over the mid Atlantic states will dominate. Deep layer
moisture will gradually increase through the period, mainly south of
the Savannah River. Have kept slight chance to chance showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon/early evening, mainly over the GA and
well inland SC zones. Temperatures expected to be a few degrees
above normal, generally around 90 well inland, and lower to mid 80s
near the coast. Lows will be mild too, in the mid to upper 60s
inland, and lower 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A deep layer ridge is shown by all models to setup over the entire
southeast U.S. through much of the work week. This is expected to
keep rain chances below 15% Wednesday and Thursday, with only
isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, but too low to mention
in the forecast. By Friday and Saturday, model indicate that a weak
upper trough and associated surface front could approach the region
from the northwest, but likely stall near or just north of the area.
These features may bring better deep layer moisture, and therefore
higher chances for convection/rainfall. Have continued low end
chance PoPs for both Friday and Saturday, which is actually close to
climo. Temperatures expected to remain above normal. Highest
generally in the lower to mid 90s well inland, and mid to upper 80s
closer to the coast. However, with surface dewpoints mixing down
into the lower to mid 60s inland and near 70 coast each day, heat
indices are expected to remain below 100.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR until after 06z. Low-level moisture, light winds and mainly
clear skies should support patchy fog later tonight into early
Sunday. Probability for MVFR visibility remains highest at the
SC terminals, and brief IFR visibilities cannot be ruled out.
Then, VFR expected Sunday. Most likely, any afternoon
showers/thunderstorms will remain isolated and inland from the
terminals.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Generally low probabilities for
flight restrictions with mainly isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms possible, especially Tuesday over KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will provide tranquil conditions overnight.
South/southeast sea breeze should average below 15 kt
and seas should remain at or below 3 ft through tonight.
Any patchy fog late tonight/early Sunday should not impact
Charleston Harbor or the Savannah River entrance.

No highlights expected through the extended period. High
pressure will generally remain centered over the northern half
of the waters, keeping more variable winds 15 kts or less over
the SC waters and southeast winds over the GA waters. Higher
winds likely near the coast each afternoon with the seabreeze,
possibly with gusts near 20 kts. Isolated mainly morning and
early afternoon showers/thunderstorms, especially GA waters
where deep layer moisture will be more plentiful.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL/SPR
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...RFM/SPR
MARINE...JRL/RFM/SPR



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Hastings NE

 804 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

The main forecast concern this evening will be thunderstorm
development this evening continuing into the overnight hours.
Current expectations is still for the majority of the storms to be
to the north and west where a line of thunderstorms has already
developed. However, a second line of thunderstorms may well
develop over the next hour or two over portions of Dawson county
and progress northeast into the early morning hours Sunday.
Thunderstorms are expected to remain roughly along and northwest
of a line from Lexington to Ord. Any storms that develop should
be elevated, with large hail up to a little larger than quarters
and strong winds in excess of 60 mph associated with any storm
that occurs, with higher confidence in the damaging winds at this
point. Also, strong downburst winds may cause isolated areas of
blowing dust out ahead of the storm, especially ahead of decaying
thunderstorms. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for
Dawson, Sherman, and Valley counties in south central Nebraska
until 1 AM Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Overall its shaping up to be a nice, warm day with highs still
expected to top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Aloft we are in
southwest flow as a large upper trof deepens over the western CONUS.
Weak chances still exist for storms to scrape our northwestern most
portions of the area this evening mainly between 7 and 11 pm. The
few storms that could clip our area have the chance of being strong
to marginally severe with dewpoints right around 60, about 3,000
j/kg of MUCAPE, and 35-40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. The main threats
would be hail to around the size of quarters and wind gusts to
around 60 mph. Though based on recent runs of the HRRR which have
trended further and further north with any precip, this seems less
and less likely to impact our area.

Tomorrow will be warm again with southwest flow aloft ahead of the
main trof to the west. Highs will once again be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. As a sfc trof and frontal boundary sag south and stall
across the area we will once again see a chance for storms. Tomorrow
will however pose a greater risk of severe storms with a more
supportive environment. SPC has the northern third of the area in an
enhanced risk with the main threat being hail to the size of golf
balls and wind gusts to around 70 mph. Within the threat area, dew
points are expected to be in the 60s along with modest MUCAPE around
1,500 j/kg, and strong deep layer shear around 50+ kts. While there
is a 5% risk area for tornadoes in the northeast, this threat looks
to be more limited in nature due to weaker 0-1 km SRH and little 0-3
km CAPE...although the sigtor parameter is non-zero.

Monday won`t be quite as warm with highs in the 80s, with the first
of two upper level waves embedded in the longwave trough forecast to
push through the area. As the sfc cold front shifts to the southeast
the threat for a few strong to marginally severe storms will also
shift to the southeast. Confidence is lower with regards to PoPs on
Monday as a lot will depend on the location of the front. Models
also indicate stronger winds on either side of the front on Monday,
with gusts possibly upwards of 35 mph at times mainly southeast of
the Tri-Cities...although a few models suggest higher.

Behind the front on Tuesday conditions will be cooler with highs in
the 70s and northwest sfc winds. Aloft we will remain in southwest
flow with the second embedded wave expected to cross the
intermountain west. As this wave progresses eastward with the main
trof, weak chances for showers return Tuesday evening and continue
to increase through Wednesday. Wednesday will be even cooler, with
highs only in the 60s across the board.

Thursday will be mostly zonal flow aloft with shortwave ridging off
to the west. Expect a slight warm up into the 70s along with drier
weather. Friday transitions to slightly northwest flow aloft ahead
of the shortwave ridging to the west with mild temperatures in
the upper 70s. Spotty chances for showers also reenter the
forecast on Friday.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 745 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Cloud cover
will mainly be mid- to high level clouds at or above 8k feet.
Winds should remain breezy out of the south tonight at around 15
kts at KGRI and generally a little less at KEAR. Overnight expect
LLWS from around 04Z to 10Z at both TAF sites. Winds will shift
direction a lot Sunday thanks to a frontal boundary moving
through, with southwesterly winds at KGRI and northwesterly at
KEAR by mid-morning. By afternoon, winds will again be south to
southwesterly at both TAF sites. Winds will continue to be a
little tricky as the front remains stalled across the area at the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hickford
DISCUSSION...Shawkey
AVIATION...Hickford



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Junction CO

 911 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022

Relative humidity recovery is in full effect with wind gusts also
lessening for more than 50 percent of the fire weather zones.
Therefore, the Red Flag Warning for today has been cancelled.
Some localized conditions remain possible for the next hour or two
but overall, relative humidity is on the rise above 15 percent
and wind gusts are lessening below the 25 mph gust threshold.

Also, let the wind advisory expire on time at 8 pm this evening as
winds have lessened below the 45 mph gust threshold. Gusts in the
20s and 30s are still occurring in some areas but should lessen
overnight. Speaking of wind, based on the latest guidance, decided
to issue a Wind Advisory for Sunday afternoon and evening for the
lower elevations of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, where
gusts in the 35 to 50 mph range are expected. Based on what
happened today, despite cloud cover, the majority of the lower
valleys hit wind advisory criteria with gusts exceeding 45 mph at
times. So expect more of the same across the Four Corners where
the jet will be positioned and better mixing should occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 405 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022

Strong southwest winds, in some cases aided by showers or virga,
developed over the region late this morning and have continued
through the afternoon. Meanwhile, along and south of the I-70
corridor, those winds combined with dry vegetation and low
relative humidity have brought critical fire weather conditions to
the area. The pressure gradient at the surface and aloft will
remain strong south of the cool front being driven southward
across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this afternoon.
Therefore, Wind Advisories and Red Flag Warnings will continue
through 8 and 10 PM this evening, respectively.

Showers trailing the front will spread southward overnight as the
trough over the West deepens over the Great Basin. Decent mid-
level and jet level lift is indicated across the northern two-
thirds of the forecast area tonight which will drive this
precipitation. Snow will fall over the higher peaks tonight with
snow levels hovering at the 10 Kft level and higher. The front
washes out during the night according to all operational runs. Due
to clouds and adiabatic warming associated with precipitation
productions, overnight lows will be pretty mild as previously
forecast.

On Sunday, the trough over the Great Basin deepens further and
shifts eastward driving another cold front southward across the
northern half of the forecast area during the day. Meanwhile,
winds aloft will remain quite strong and lapse rates will steepen
as cooling occurs at the 500 mb level. CAPE is expected to range
from 750 to 1000 J/kg across the north with decent straight line
shear. This has prompted SPC to put the northern zones in the
marginal threat area for thunderstorms with the primary threat
being strong winds. HRRR and NSSL-WRF showed bowing structures
which seemed to fit with this scenario. Meanwhile, milder, drier
and continued breezy/windy conditions across portions of southwest
Colorado are expected to bring another round of a critical fire
weather conditions. Winds aren`t expected to be as strong as those
recorded today, so will not issue Wind Advisories for Sunday with
this package. Showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected
to be widespread over the mountains and areas along and north of
the I-70 corridor. Significantly cooler temperatures are expected
under these conditions, though not to the same degree across the
south.

Showers continue across the northern two-thirds of the forecast
area Sunday, but will be decreasing as the night progresses.
Meanwhile, the trough moves overhead and the front drops south of
the UT/CO borders. As a result, overnight lows will be much
cooler, though the threat of a freeze in the valleys is presently
low. Meanwhile, snow will continue in the higher reaches of the
mountains, however accumulations at and below pass level are
expected to be pretty light with melting limiting impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022

Unsettled and cooler than normal weather is likely to start off
the long term period as a large and broad trough remains parked
over the western CONUS. Several vortices embedded within the
parent trough will rotate through the northern Four Corners Monday
through Wednesday. The cold air aloft, as evidenced by 500mb
temperatures near -20C, combined with the strong late May sun
angle will produce steep lapse rates and marginal instability each
afternoon. This will result in a fair amount of clouds and
showers, especially over the higher terrain along the Continental
Divide and in the adjacent northern valleys. Snow levels will
start off around 8,500 feet Monday afternoon and will rise to over
10,000 feet by the same time on Wednesday. Additional snowfall
amounts during this period aren`t looking particularly impressive
with perhaps a trace up to a few inches possible way up high.
Rainfall amounts down low won`t add up to much either.

Outside of the higher terrain and higher valleys, mainly dry
weather is expected with just low odds of a brief sprinkle here
and there. Temperatures are favored to be quite cool for this time
of year. Highs are likely to be roughly 10 to 20 degrees below
normal on Monday and 5 to 15 degrees below normal on Tuesday.
Temperatures start to warm up on Wednesday as the parent trough
exits stage right, but highs will still skew slightly below
average. Given the higher humidity and lower temperatures, any
fire weather concerns are expected to be confined to near the
Colorado and New Mexico border, if anywhere.

The last shortwave on the backside of the now departed trough is
progged by ensembles to lift out of our CWA Wednesday into
Thursday. Beyond that, WPC ensemble clusters are in near
unanimous agreement that a strong ridge of high pressure builds
in over the Great Basin and Four Corners to round out the week.
Underneath this ridge, expect a return to drier and much warmer
than normal conditions under mostly sunny skies. Afternoon breezes
will need to be monitored for potential critical fire weather,
but winds should be lighter underneath the ridge. That, in turn,
should keep conditions fairly localized.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 606 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022

Southwest winds will continue to gust in the 25 to 35 kt range
with some sites gusting up to 40 to 50 kts at times. Scattered to
broken cloud cover is still working across the area and is
expected to increase in coverage overnight with showers moving
into the northwest portions of the area as the cold front
approaches. VCSH is possible after 06Z with prevailing showers
after 15Z Sunday. CIGS should remain above ILS breakpoints until
after 15Z when prevailing showers enter the picture, especially
across the north and higher elevation sites were better chances of
wetting rain exist. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also
expected by Sunday afternoon, some of which could be strong.
Erratic gusty outflow winds seem to be the primary concern,
especially in the lower elevations where chance of wetting rain is
lower.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 405 PM MDT Sat May 28 2022

A strong cold front arrives tonight and will bring an increasing
risk for showers and thunderstorms. Humidity levels will be
rising behind the front, decreasing the fire weather risk across
the north. The front is expected to push into the Four Corners
area Sunday. Continued strong winds and low relative humidity
ahead of the front is expected to result in additional fire
weather concerns for portions of southwest Colorado. Therefore,
the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for
Colorado fire weather zones 207 below 6500 feet and 290. By
Monday, the fire weather risk shifts primarily towards the New
Mexico state line.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ020>022.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Sunday for COZ207-290.

UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ022-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...MDM
AVIATION...MDA
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

 848 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through Monday night.
  Severe weather is possible tonight and late Sunday. An outbreak of
  severe thunderstorms, including some strong tornadoes and very
  large hail, is becoming increasingly likely Monday afternoon.

- Very warm and humid this holiday weekend, then turning cooler
  again later next week.

Today/tonight... We cleared out nicely this morning behind the
morning convection, though did get some gusty winds this morning
over south central MN before the overnight LLJ weakened. With 925mb
temps exceeding 20C, we`ve seen a few sites down around Fairmont and
Redwood Falls get up near 90. We`ll stay mild through tonight as
south winds continue through the night, with most of the area
remaining in the 60s. The one exception will be up near Mora and
Mille Lacs, where they cold see a cooler airmass drop down from Lake
Superior.

From the precip perspective, we`ll be dry and capped through the
afternoon, with any activity we see this period happening late
tonight. There will be two areas to watch for convection tonight.
One will be with what is expected to be thunderstorms that develop
late this afternoon near the central Neb/SD border. These storms
will track northeast through the night, with west of a Redwood Falls
to Little Falls most likely to see the remnants of these storms.
East of the Redwood Falls to Little Falls line, the threat for
convection will come from the enhancement of the nocturnal LLJ across
the central Plains. On the nose of this, the RAP shows a pool of
higher theta-e at h85 coming up out of IA and across southern MN.
This will bring about another threat for some sunrise showers/storms,
though that potential for Sunday morning is looking much lower than
it did for this morning. From the severe threat, any activity we see
this period will be elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates will
support a hail threat for any stronger convection we see.

Sunday... We`ll see a surface low over northeast NoDak, with a cold
front extending south to another surface low that will be developing
over south central Neb (this Neb low will become our problem
Memorial Day). For Sunday, we looked to be capped, with the risk of
storms during the day on Sunday greatest in northwest MN closer to
the surface low and north of the capping. For the MPX area, the
greatest concern severe wise is for a severe MCS to come out of Neb
and across western/central MN Sunday evening. Given the strengthening
wind fields expected, a bowing MCS posing a significant wind risk,
along with your QLCS tornadoes, looks to be our greatest risk Sunday
evening. The Day 2 convective outlook covers this threat well, with
enough uncertainty being present with the scenario actually playing
out to keep the SPC from upgrading to a Moderate risk.

Monday... This continues to be the most concerning day from a severe
weather risk perspective as that Nebraska low moves up to eastern
SD/western MN and deepens on Memorial Day. In terms of forcing,
shear, and instability, this setup has many similarities to what we
typically see in the upper MS Valley on severe weather outbreak days.
This is the one day this weekend where afternoon convection looks
possible, with all modes of severe weather possible. Looking at
hodographs on Monday, they are very, very long, but relatively
straight near the surface forcing features, so this indicates that we
should see pretty rapid upscale growth with any activity we see
develop on Monday, but it will likely be a rather chaotic setup with
lots mergers and other cell interactions going on. The severe risk
continues to look greatest over western MN, where the cold
front/surface low look to reside during peak heating, but we will see
an increasing wind risk through much of the night as one or more
lines of storms advance east with the cold front, though the risk
will be diminishing by the time you get out toward Eau Claire as
storms will be encountering lower stability as they move east,
along with your typical nocturnal stabilization of the boundary
layer.

Tuesday through next weekend... The h5 low that will help drive our
severe threat Memorial day will continue north into Canada on
Tuesday, where it will merge with another h5 low coming out of
northwest Canada. The combined h5 low that will result from this
merger will then stay more or less stationary over northern Manitoba
and northwest Ontario all the way into the weekend. This will result
in a seasonably strong zonal flow across the north central CONUS
from Tuesday into the weekend. The most notable element of this
pattern shift will be a noticeably cooler and less humid airmass
from Tuesday into next weekend. For precip chances, Tuesday
continues to trend drier, with the best chance for precip residing
over MN, where a cold mid-level trough will exist, allowing for the
possibility of some diurnally driven showers. The next chance will
come Thursday night as a weak cold front passes through the upper MS
Valley. The NBM is still dry for us Thursday night/Friday morning as
the best upper forcing will going across the upper Great Lakes, but
it wouldn`t be surprising to see some low chances eventually appear.
After that, where this boundary sets up next weekend will become the
focus for additional showers and storms, with the ECMWF/GFS showing
the potential for an overrunning precip event to develop.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

VFR to start for all terminals with clouds increasing overnight. A
quick-hitting round of showers and weak thunderstorms will move
through generally in the 10z-14z timeframe for western MN, thus kept
in PROB30 mention. Chances less than that for southern/eastern MN TAF
sites (and not expected at all at the WI TAF sites) but some
adjustments may be needed for the 06z TAFs based on newer model
guidance coming in. MVFR ceilings then look to briefly settle in late
morning to early afternoon until a weak surface boundary lifts north,
then high MVFR to low VFR ceilings will remain in place through the
rest of the afternoon. Gusty SE winds will also commence during the
afternoon. Chances for stronger TSRA ramp up after 00z tomorrow
evening so these chances will be shown in later TAFs.

KMSP...VFR through late morning but with the first of a couple rounds
of LLWS expected to develop, which will remain through sunrise. After
daytime mixing commences and the low level jetting weakens a bit,
stronger SE surface winds will take hold and remain in place. Chances
too low at this time to include any mention of sunrise thunderstorms
moving through but will re-evaluate at the 06z TAF time. Another
round of LLWS is likely at and after sunset through Sunday evening,
but accompanying this may well be a round of thunderstorms later
Sunday evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR/TSRA late. Wind S 10-15G25 kts.
Tue...Chance MVFR/-SHRA. Wind W 10-15G25 bcmg NW.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...JPC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

 1105 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. Breezy/windy conditions Today through Tuesday.

2. Warming trend continues today, with warmer than normal
conditions through Tuesday.

3. Best precipitation chances will return to the area Tuesday
evening through Wednesday night.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Showers and thunderstorms were observed to our west this morning
as upper level energy and a low level jet developed over the
Plains and moved east. As a result, some light showers pushed
eastward into far southeast KS and southwest MO before diminishing
out by late morning.

Models show the upper ridge continuing over the area, causing
surface high pressure in the east and raised heights to allow for
a fairly dry start to the weekend and above normal afternoon
highs, with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s observed
across the area. Mid to high level clouds have lowered
temperatures slightly, but some additional areas may still reach
the low 80s as the afternoon progresses. An upper level trough
making its way onshore over the west coast will continue to
propagate eastward, tightening the pressure gradient, and allowing
for a breezy holiday weekend. Gusts up to 30 mph have been
observed so far this morning/afternoon in some areas, which will
continue to be possible through the remainder of the day.

Went ahead and included slight pops over the western CWA again for
tonight as the LLJ enhances just to our west and brings some
moisture transport into central/eastern KS. HRRR guidance shows
some light sprinkles possible, however ensembles aren`t picking up
on this potential, and Bufkit forecast soundings show a lot of dry
air at the surface, so confidence is pretty low. But if showers
do develop over KS, they could push east into the western portion
of the CWA, warranting the slight pops. Otherwise, overnight lows
in the 60s to low 70s can be expected tonight.

As the trough to the west continues to push east amplifying the
ridging pattern, the forecast area will find itself on the
western portion of the ridge. As a result, Sunday will mark the
breeziest day of the holiday weekend, with gusts up to 30-40 mph
possible for the majority of the CWA, and gusts up to 20-25 mph
for the eastern Ozarks. The above-normal temperature trend will
continue, as afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are likely.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Memorial Day will yield a warm, breezy day with NBM guidance
giving high confidence of afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s
across the area. With the continued tightened pressure gradient,
wind gusts up to 25-30 kts are possible across the area, with the
higher gusts in the northeastern portion of the CWA.

Tuesday will mark the last day of the forecast period with above
normal temperatures, as NBM percentiles show afternoon highs in
the mid 80s. The upper level low to our west will push northeast
of the area, dragging a cold front through the forecast area
during the latter portion of Tuesday into Wednesday morning. NBM
as well as some ensembles are showing slight precipitation chances
increasing ahead of the front Monday night into Tuesday morning,
however most GEFS plumes and ensembles show better chances of
precipitation with the frontal passage. Looking at the 6-hr NBM
probabilities of QPF >0.1", the higher chances of precipitation
occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with the cold front.
There are still some discrepancies with timing and placement of
this system, but as the upper low pushes onto the west coast later
today, future model runs may have a better handle on it, yielding
more agreement between ensembles.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Gusty southerly winds will continue through the TAF period, mainly
during the daytime hours. LLWS is expected at all TAF sites
tonight then again Sunday night. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Titus



forecast discussion, HREF guidance continues to show a stark drop in

winds as they approach the Colorado River Valley, so kept the region

 out of any wind or fire products.

No changes were made to the Red Flag Warnings, as enhanced fire
danger persists each afternoon, today and Sunday. Recreation
involving flames or sparks is ill-advised due to the high likelihood
of fire starts and spreads.

Wind speeds will be greatly reduced Monday afternoon, with
northwesterly post-frontal winds across the area. Memorial Day will
also be the coolest day of the forecast period, as ridging sets up
quickly behind the exiting trough.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.

The Tuesday through Friday time period should be relatively quiet
as temperatures steadily rise from around 8 degrees below normal
on Tuesday to around 5 degrees above normal on Thursday before
plateauing. Expect dry conditions to continue with occasional
breezes as a persistent southwest flow sets up.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Strong afternoon winds and low afternoon relative
humidities will result in high fire danger each afternoon through
Sunday for most of southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. Red
Flag Warnings persist from 12 PM to 8PM today and Sunday as a
result. Higher humidity will move into the Spring Mountains and
Sheep Range today, with values between 20 and 30 percent, but will
drop once again on Sunday. Sunday, the wind direction should shield
the Colorado River Valley from critical winds, mitigating fire
concerns there. Monday, wind speeds drop below critical thresholds.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy southwest winds will continue
through this afternoon with the strongest winds expected through the
evening. Winds will decrease somewhat, but stay elevated overnight
before a cold front moves through the Valley tomorrow morning and
shifts winds to the northwest to prevail through Sunday. Right now
it looks like that shift would occur between 13Z and 15Z. SCT to BKN
clouds AOA 15kft will continue to move across the area into this
afternoon but should decrease to FEW AOA 25kft by this evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty conditions will continue for all sites today into
tonight. For KBIH, winds will mainly be northerly throughout the
TAF period, although a westerly component may be seen for a few
hours after 21Z. Winds should return to the north by tonight.
Winds at KDAG will be westerly through the period with gusts over
40kts likely this afternoon and evening. Winds will be mainly
southwest to south at the lower Colorado River sites. Smoke from a
nearby wildfire may reduce visibilities at times at KEED and
blowing dust will be possible at KDAG. SCT to BKN clouds AOA 15kft
will continue to move across the area into this afternoon and
early evening but should decrease to FEW AOA 25kft by late this
evening at all sites.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Pierce

SHORT TERM...Varian
LONG TERM...Salmen
AVIATION...TB3

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