Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/27/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Thu May 26 2022 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Winds will remain light tonight with areas of smoke likely to impact areas in the vcnty of wildfires. SW winds will strengthen on Friday with gusts of 20 to 30 kt likely at most terminals aft 20Z. Clouds will develop over the high terrain by 19Z then spread east/northeast into nearby valleys and highlands thru late day. Sprinkles and light rain showers are possible around the high terrain stretching from near ABQ to Santa Fe, Las Vegas, and Raton aft 22Z. This activity will be capable of producing strong, erratic wind gusts up to 40 kt with blowing dust. Guyer && .PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT Thu May 26 2022... .SYNOPSIS... Near record to record heat arrives Friday with increasing southwesterly winds injecting the next round of critical fire weather Saturday and through the Memorial Day weekend. Windy weather with potential for blowing dust will be the rule each afternoon through Tuesday. The risk of critical fire weather is particular high this holiday weekend given the dry, warm, and high wind potential. Highs will generally trend down, remaining above normal until Sunday, falling below normal for western areas. This cooling trend continues into next week as winds also subside by Wednesday. This will usher in a new weather pattern bringing increased moisture from the Great Plains as far as the Rio Grande Valley by Thursday. There will be a corresponding rise in chances for afternoon thunderstorms for areas along and east of the Rio Grande Valley as a result. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... A ridge of high pressure will finish crossing the forecast area from the west over the next 36 hours with record and near record warmth expected Friday afternoon. We expect to mix to 500 mb in most places Friday afternoon, with gusty southwest winds areawide. A disturbance crossing the central Rockies may provide enough mid level moisture and instability to trigger isolated and gusty virga showers late Friday afternoon from the east slopes of the west central mountains northeastward to the central and northern mountains, then onto the northeast plains as well in the early evening. There could even be a few claps of thunder along the CO border. There is some concern about modest to potentially moderate smoke making it`s way northeastward from the Black and Bear Trap Fires over the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas late tonight. The HRRR has been consistently showing this, and 700 mb winds out of the SSW over those fires on the GFS20 suggest the HRRR may be onto something. The current Air Quality Advisory does not include these metro areas, but may be expanded (especially to ABQ) if needed. LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... A very active and persistently windy weather pattern still looks to take hold this weekend for the Long Term period, unfortunately. The suite of global models shows a deepening troughing pattern developing over the western CONUS with a closed low moving ashore the PacNW Saturday. This sets up strengthening southwest winds aloft over New Mexico. H7 winds of 35-45kts look to easily mix to the surface, coupled with a lee surface trough over east-central CO bringing windy weather area wide and perhaps some patchy blowing dust during the afternoon. Thanks to the position of the lee surface trough, the strong winds likely reaching advisory level look to focus through the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeastern highlands from Las Vegas to Raton. Highs will be near record for many central and eastern locales. The flow aloft strengthens further Sunday with a similar setup. Advisory level wind speeds look to be more widespread however. Pressure heights also begin falling with a corresponding dip in high temperatures. Monday, Memorial Day, looks to be the peak wind event of the forecast period. First, there is potential for mountain wave activity to reach the northern mountains Sunday night into Monday morning. Numerical model cross-sections show some mountain wave signatures over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains during this time, however confidence is rather low. Decoupling of surface winds looks to be slow to occur Sunday night, and the southwest orientation of the winds across the N-S orientation of the Sangre de Cristos doesnt favor a high confidence mountain wave forecast. Nevertheless, ridge tops and higher elevations do look to remain windy through Sunday night. Thereafter, models depict varying solutions of a vort-max rounding an upper low over the Great Basin area during the day Monday. This will further strengthen southwest flow over New Mexico. Area wide near advisory level winds look likely, with the strongest winds focused through the northeastern plains where the sharpest surface pressure gradient will lay. High wind potential does exist for Monday in this area. The extended period continues to show hope on the horizon for Wednesday and now Thursday with the aforementioned upper low quickly ejecting over the northern Great Plains. It sends down a backdoor cold front through eastern NM Wednesday in its wake, cooling the eastern plains with a nice influx of low level moisture. Afternoon thunderstorm activity looks favored Wednesday afternoon, with outflow from these storms kicking moisture further west into the central valley areas for Thursday. This will finally bring chances for afternoon thunderstorm activity into the Rio Grande Valley, and maybe Albuquerque ends its long streak of days without measurable precipitation. 44/24 && .FIRE WEATHER... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALL AREAS DUE TO STRONG WINDS, LOW HUMIDITIES AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS... ...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... A ridge of high pressure will finish crossing the forecast area on Friday with record and near record high temperatures. Southwest winds will become gusty areawide as the atmosphere mixes to around 18K feet. Locally breezy and locally critical fire weather conditions are expected from the north central mountains southeastward across the east central plains Friday afternoon, with the most favored locations in the mountains along the CO border, and at lower elevations from Las Vegas to around Clines Corners and Clovis. In addition, CAMs suggest a disturbance crossing the central Rockies may interject enough mid level moisture for isolated gusty and high based virga showers late Friday afternoon and early evening. The greatest consensus appears to be over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with some models suggesting the convection could occur as far southwest as the central and west central mountains in the late afternoon, and as far northeast as Union County in the early evening. There may even be a few claps of thunder mainly in the mountains near the CO border. A fire growing pattern will develop Saturday through Tuesday as a broad low pressure system moves over the western US steering the polar jet stream gradually closer to, and eventually over, northern NM. Stout surface troughs will also regenerate each day in the lee of the southern Rockies. As a result, widespread critical fire weather condtions are expected daily. Southwest winds look to gust from 35-45 mph Saturday, then from 40-50 mph Sunday and 40-55 mph Monday. Winds look to weaken a notch on Tuesday, while remaining strong enough for a lingering round of critical fire weather conditions along and east of the central mountain chain. Temperatures will begin to cool near normal over western areas on Sunday, with highs a few to 7 degrees below normal mainly west of the Rio Grande Monday. Meanwhile, poor humidity recoveries are forecast over all areas except Curry and Roosevelt Counties Friday night, areawide Saturday night, and along and east of the central mountain chain Sunday night. A gusty and moist backdoor cold front is then forecast to dive southwestward through eastern then central areas Tuesday night and Wednesday with a chance for thunderstorms, potentially wetting rain, and relief from the heat. 44 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for the following zones... NMZ101>109. && $$
National Weather Service Albany NY
1022 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure and a slow moving cold front approaching from the west will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually taper off from west to east Saturday, with fair weather returning for Sunday into Monday, along with warmer temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Updated at 1020 PM EDT. Clouds are slowly spreading north and thickening in southerly flow across the region late this evening. Radar and observations are not indicating any rainfall in southeast NY, and the latest HRRR and NAM nest is implying little to no rain over the mid-Hudson Valley and Catskills overnight, so lowered already low pops in that area to keep any mention of rain in the forecast out overnight. Clouds will keep temperatures a bit milder than recent nights, with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Previous discussion is below. Updated at 730 PM EDT. Broken mostly mid-level cloud cover is being observed across the area early this evening, with some lower cigs just to the south. A persistent southerly breeze through the night should allow for some of these lower cigs to advect northward overnight, with mainly cloudy skies expected by daybreak Friday. Dew points will also be creeping upward overnight and there could be some very light, patchy fog toward morning. Clouds and southerly breezes should keep temperatures warmer than the past several nights, with lows mainly from the mid 50s to lower 60s. As of 4 PM EDT, low clouds have expanded northeast from the SE Catskills into the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, much of Litchfield County into central/southern Berkshire County. These clouds are expected to remain in place over the next few hours, before ultimately expanding north and west later this evening, with additional low clouds developing across the southern Adirondacks after midnight. Meanwhile, isolated/scattered showers currently developing across western PA are expected to translate northeast this evening, and may reach portions of the SW Adirondacks toward midnight. Have chance PoPs for that region continuing overnight as additional showers developing upstream may at least graze that region. Will have to watch trends, in case these showers expand farther east than currently forecast into the Mohawk Valley and perhaps the Lake George/Saratoga region after midnight. Additional isolated showers or spotty drizzle may develop late tonight across portions of the SE Catskills into the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT/southern Berkshires. Otherwise, remaining breezy and mild with increasing humidity levels. South winds may still gust up to 25-30 mph at times this evening within north/south oriented valleys and higher terrain areas, with some gradual decreasing in gust magnitudes after midnight. Low temps generally in the mid 50s to lower/mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms and Isolated Flash Flooding Friday into Friday Night... Slow moving cold front will approach from the west during Friday. Little in the way of rain is expected during the morning hours from the Hudson River Valley and points east, with perhaps some showers across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley at times. Better chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms develop Friday afternoon, initially across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley region, before eventually shifting south and east toward the Capital Region, SE Catskills and mid Hudson Valley region toward sunset. Convective parameters for Friday afternoon suggest the most likely mode of convection would be multi-cell clusters that could form into bowing segments, as MU CAPES increase to 500-1000 J/kg, with 0-6km shear of 30-35 KT. There will be some enhanced low level helicity within the Hudson River Valley due to the southerly winds, so can not completely rule out some isolated supercells, however best potential, which looks isolated at this time, appears to be mainly damaging wind gusts from any bowing segments that develop. The aforementioned instability will be highly dependent on cloud coverage, which is currently expected to be fairly widespread. However, there could be some breaks developing in the afternoon, especially across the Mohawk Valley region. Should more prolonged breaks in cloud cover develop, greater instability could allow the current marginal/isolated severe potential increase in coverage. Also, PWAT`s increase to around 1.5" by late Friday afternoon, with winds fairly unidirectional from the south/southwest through a deep layer of the atmosphere. This could lead to training of convective cells, allowing for pockets of heavy rain to develop. Should this occur, can not rule out a few instances of flash flooding. It will remain breezy with south to southwest winds gusting to 25-30 mph at times, especially in the afternoon. Max temps should reach 75-80 in most valley areas, and 70-75 for higher terrain areas. It will also be humid as dewpoints climb into the lower/mid 60s. Occasional showers/thunderstorms continue through Friday night, with locally heavy downpours possible. Lows mainly in the mid 50s to lower/mid 60s. On Saturday, the cold front should be approaching the Hudson River Valley by late morning, and should be slowly moving into western New England during the afternoon hours. Depending on its forward speed, there could be a brief window for destabilization for areas mainly south and east of Albany, with some guidance suggesting MUCAPES building to 1000-1500 J/kg. 0-6 km shear should remain 30-35 KT for areas south/east of Albany, so some storm organization could occur if this front remains slow. This potential looks greatest for areas south and east of Albany, mainly between late morning and early afternoon. Otherwise, clearing is possible from NW to SE during the mid to late afternoon hours Saturday. West to northwest winds may increase and become gusty in the wake of the front, especially within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires, where some gusts of 25-30 mph are possible. Max temps may reach 70-75 or slightly warmer in valley areas south and east of Albany, with mainly 60s to lower 70s to the north and west. Should the front track through slower, even warmer max temps may occur across portions of western New England and the mid Hudson Valley. Fair and cooler for Saturday night, with some patchy fog possible. Low temps by daybreak Sunday ranging from the lower/mid 40s across the southern Adirondacks, to the 50s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Guidance is in good agreement that upper ridging is likely to persist throughout the long term period keeping the region largely warm and dry from Memorial Day Weekend into early June. In general, high temperature Sunday through Wednesday will be above normal. On Sunday, highs will reach into the upper 70s for most locales with the immediate Hudson Valley potentially making it into the low 80s. The heat will increase into Monday and Tuesday with widespread upper 80s in the valleys with low 90s possible, particularly in the southern reaches of the CWA in the mid-Hudson Valley and in the cities of the Capital District. These forecast values are approaching daily records on both days, with Tuesday looking more likely to perhaps tie values set across the region in 2013. Wednesday brings a modicum of relief with highs only reaching the mid 80s. Low temps are likely to remain in the 50s Sunday night, and subsequently only fall into the low to mid 60s in the valleys and upper 50s in higher terrain on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday nights. Dewpoint temperatures start the period in the 50s but increase into the low 60s for Monday through Wednesday yielding a hot and muggy airmass for Memorial Day and into the workweek. Winds throughout the forecast period are likely to persist out of the west, with some gusts in excess of 15 kt Monday and Tuesday afternoons when a deep well-mixed layer may allow for higher momentum air to mix down to the surface. Winds may turn southerly along the Hudson River during the day Wednesday. Sky conditions appear likely to be mostly sunny on Sunday before increasing somewhat in step with increased surface humidity resulting in partly cloudy skies for most locales from Tuesday onward. Precipitation looks unlikely through the extended forecast period with no PoPs included through 00Z Thursday. Guidance suggests a number of pulses of vorticity may ride up and over the ridge, but there is good agreement that these systems are likely to remain too far to the north to add any appreciable PoPs to the forecast for now. Looking ahead, the next chance for rain isn`t until Thursday when a frontal system could signal a large scale pattern shift. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... All terminals are currently experiencing VFR conditions which should persist into the evening until cigs lower to MVFR from south to north beginning at POU by 02Z, reaching GFL by 09Z. Cigs will continue to lower through the night, potentially reaching IFR range at POU by 08Z. Cigs should lift somewhat back into borderline MVFR/VFR ranges as daytime heating allows for upward mixing after daybreak, around 12-18Z. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to affect all terminals tomorrow afternoon, beginning around 16-19Z. These convective showers may bring occasionally lowered cigs and vsbys could quickly be reduced by any precipitation into IFR/MVFR ranges. PROB groups have been included to illustrate the uncertainty in coverage of convective storms at this lead time. Winds this evening are from the south at 10-15 kt gusting 18-22 kt, except at POU where southerly winds are lighter at 6-8 kt. Speeds should moderate after nightfall when downward mixing of momentum from aloft is reduced, yielding 6-10 kt winds through the night. 20- 25 kt gusts may again pick up again at ALB/GFL/PSF after daybreak when vertical mixing is re-initiated. Outlook... Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Memorial Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Wind gusts up to 25 to 30 mph possible Friday afternoon... Low pressure and a slow moving cold front approaching from the west will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually taper off from west to east Saturday, with fair weather returning for Sunday into Monday, along with warmer temperatures. RH values should recover to 90-100 percent tonight, then drop to 55-70 percent Friday afternoon. South to southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph this evening should decrease to 5-15 mph later tonight, then increase once again to 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Friday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms should become widespread late Friday afternoon into Friday night. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms. && .HYDROLOGY... Some spotty light showers are possible across the southern Adirondacks tonight, as well as across portions of the southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late Friday afternoon and continue through Friday night, before gradually decreasing in coverage Saturday. With a moist airmass in place, and relatively unidirectional winds through a deep layer of the atmosphere, locally heavy rain will be possible, along with the possibility for some training of showers/thunderstorms. In areas which receive frequent and/or multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms, isolated flash flooding is possible, particularly in poor drainage/urban areas. River levels are only expected to exhibit small rises from this rainfall, however, as antecedent conditions have been fairly dry, with streamflows generally running near to below normal for late May. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/Speciale NEAR TERM...MSE/KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...Picard FIRE WEATHER...KL/Speciale HYDROLOGY...KL/Speciale
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1047 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 Key Messages: - Rain and storm chances ending by early evening - A warming trend Friday through Monday with periodic storm chances. LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING: At 18Z, radar was showing storms approaching Interstate 80, some warned on. This cluster is expected to continue moving north in ~1000 J /Kg of MLCAPE ahead, through KDBQ /per SPC mesoa/. Current timing is around 21Z/4pm entering Grant county. The slow moving cold front and CAPE gradient are currently located in southern Grant county, with MUCAPE nearing 2000 south of KDBQ...and a decreasing gradient northward into Grant county with a near 0 line around Highway 18. Besides some pop-up showers and storms, this instability should allow the I-80 storms to shift in and begin weakening as they head north. Latest HRRR runs confirm this and seem reasonable. With the wind shear minimal, pulse storms would be expected without much organization. Hail has been observed in the nickel to quarter range further south...which is possible as an outlier high-end in far southern Grant. Earlier thoughts included the possibility of a funnel/NST/landspout type tornado but the surface wind pattern is fairly chaotic at this time in the south. There seems to be a limited 2-3 hour period of storms, peaking around 22-23Z. This evening, more progression southeastward is expected with the front, stabilizing the south. Further north, radar is still indicating the elevated shower band persisting from Taylor county into southcentral MN. For the next hours this zone will persist as the radar wind profile is showing little depth increase to the frontal zone over La Crosse, WI. However, as the larger scale progression begins into late afternoon, this shower band should dissolve. Finally, high pressure and ridge building overnight will scour clouds, with Friday looking stellar and much warmer. WEEKEND RAIN/STORM CHANCES: Ensemble solutions have come into good agreement on the overall pattern through the weekend, as troughing moves off across the east coast. A ridge is expected to build over the Central U.S., as large scale troughing digs across the west. Shortwave energy moving over the area will flatten the ridge and bring precipitation chances on Saturday afternoon. As ridging begins to amplify to the east on Sunday, shortwave energy moving through the upper flow will be pushed further north. Trends suggest that this will work to keep the bulk of the storms west and north of the forecast area (along with the severe risk). Precipitation returns by Tuesday as a boundary approaches the area. However, disagreement among the ensemble solutions remain on the progression of the upper level pattern. Overall, models suggest precipitation will move back across the area, but uncertainty remains on timing and coverage of this precipitation. With this uncertainty it is too early to determine severe potential, but will continue to monitor as the forecast period gets closer. SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY: A warm weekend is expected ahead as ensemble guidance shows a consistent trend in increased temperatures throughout the weekend. Highs in the 70s are expected to move back in on Saturday and continue increasing through the weekend. By Monday there is high confidence in temperatures reaching the upper 80s/near 90, supported by small spread (only 3-4 degree F) between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the NBM. This could be a 10-15 degree difference from Saturday to Monday for some, so something to keep in mind for any outdoor activities planned over the holiday. With uncertainties on the progression of the upper level pattern, there still remains large spread amongst ensemble solutions for temperatures midweek. However, ensemble guidance suggests a decreasing trend in temperatures, with EPS ensemble means staying below model climatology into next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 MVFR ceilings are not anticipated to last much longer tonight at KLSE with KRST already in VFR ceilings. Ceilings will continue improving these next couple hours then becoming VFR by 07z if not earlier. Eventually the stratus cloud deck will move out leading to clear skies and VFR conditions to persist through the remainder of the period. Any overnight fog development is anticipated to remain west of KRST. Winds from the north will be around 10 knots or less through much of the period then quickly become southerly near the end of the forecast period. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baumgardt/EMS AVIATION...Peters
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
713 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 As a slow-moving storm system drifts across Illinois, scattered showers will linger into Friday. While Friday will see cooler temperatures, expect a significant warmup for the holiday weekend. By Memorial Day, high temperatures will be close to 90 degrees. && .UPDATE... Issued at 713 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 Band of convection has lifted north of I-74 and weakened considerably early this evening with 00z/7pm radar imagery showing little to no lightning lingering across the N/NE KILX CWA. Further south, only widely scattered very light showers are noted. As low pressure pivots overhead, am expecting just isolated showers across much of the area tonight. The exception will be northwest of the I-55 corridor where scattered showers will linger and perhaps become a bit more numerous toward daybreak. Have updated the forecast to better reflect current and expected PoP trends for the remainder of the night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 Early afternoon surface map shows low pressure over Missouri, with a cold front arcing approaching our area from the southwest. Numerous thunderstorms are covering the forecast area, most in a band from Lawrenceville northwest through Peoria, with an isolated severe storm east of Mattoon. These storms are being fed by 2000+ J/kg CAPE`s, though shear has not been a major issue, so severe storms have been more of the pulse variety. Short range hi-res models show the bulk of these storms out of our area by 7 pm except near Champaign and Danville. As the low pressure moves into central Illinois early this evening, many of the showers will diminish. However, an arc of rain will persist a good portion of the night northwest of the Illinois River, wrapping around the low. With the pivot point between the front and the old boundary just to our north, the heaviest rain should concentrate in north central Illinois. Toward morning, this rain band will track eastward as the low pulls further away. However, rain chances will linger into the afternoon east of I-55. With the upper low only slowly lifting northeast on Friday, a cool north/northwest flow will keep highs confined to the mid/upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 Longer range forecast continues to trend back to the very warm and humid conditions, as an upper level ridge shifts east across the Mississippi Valley. By Memorial Day, highs return to around 90 degrees, which should persist for a few days. The resulting upper level high should flatten out some as we get into midweek. However, longer range guidance is in agreement in keeping the main upper low up in Canada. More of a fast moving wave should track across the Midwest on Wednesday, with good agreement in a passage across central Illinois. Beyond that, the blended guidance may be hanging onto the rain a bit too long, as a surface high builds into the mid Mississippi Valley. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 Band of scattered convection continues to lift northward across the I-74 corridor and weaken early this evening. Based on radar trends, have opted to mention thunder at KBMI/KCMI...with just VCSH at the other terminals. A patch of MVFR ceilings is noted at KBMI and KCMI, but this will improve to VFR over the next 1-2 hours as the convective band departs. After that, ceilings will remain VFR for several hours before lowering to MVFR/IFR overnight into Friday morning. Latest HRRR and NAM forecast soundings, suggest MVFR developing at KPIA by 06z...then further east to KCMI by around 09z. Once ceilings come down, they will stay there until gradually improving by late Friday afternoon. Winds will become light/variable tonight as low pressure moves overhead, then will veer to N/NW on Friday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SYNOPSIS...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Barnes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
944 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 ...EVENING UPDATE... No significant changes to the ongoing forecast are required this evening. Winds were adjusted slightly to reflect the more southerly component in place this evening, but a shift to the southwest and west is still anticipated later tonight into tomorrow in response to a reinforcing frontal boundary and weak upper level vort lobe sliding through the area tomorrow morning. Otherwise, all of the forecast parameters are tracking well with observed values this evening. PG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022/ AVIATION (00Z TAF DISCUSSION)...A much drier and stable airmass is advecting into the area this afternoon and will remain in place through tomorrow evening. As a result, clear skies will be the rule resulting in prevailing VFR conditions. PG PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022/ SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)... Starting off with early this evening, we finally say goodbye to all the clouds and rain as a strong, dynamic storm system surges a cold front and associated convection east of the area. Glancing through HRRR soundings valid to around 22-00Z illustrates much deeper, drier tropospheric air building in aloft above a well- mixed PBL. Meanwhile looking at a broader view across the US, the aforementioned dynamic storm system characterized by a closed-off 558mb cold-core low continues to slowly drift east across the mid-MS valley region, placing our area just about due south helping to promote zonal mid-level flow. The orientation of the frontal boundary becoming more west/east will parallel the vertical wind flow helping to slow it`s progression tonight into the day on Friday, with a gradient of 65-70 degree dewpoints still creeping in across coastal SE LA right ahead of the front, comparable to low 50 degree dewpoints over SW MS. Ofcourse, given such a dry tropospheric profile in place, this front will remain dry going into Friday morning. However, have noticed some HREF members attempting at developing some scattered convection along the front across coastal SE LA & adjacent marine areas from 18Z to around or shortly after 00Z Friday afternoon and evening. Taking a closer look at what trigger mechanisms would lead to this being even relatively plausible displays a few key features to watch for. 1) The potential for upstream PVA/energy impulses along a then becoming NW upper-level flow could help to aid in subtle dynamic ascent aloft, especially by identifying the evolution of the cold core low transitioning more positive-tilt (greater curvature axis falling back from southern LA, NE into the Ohio Valley region). 2) Rebuilding SB instability within the warm sector, while might not be a whole lot due to dry air in the mid- levels from compressional warming/drying present, but still could build enough of a skinny cape profile dependent on eventual MaxT`s/Td`s. Add to that, deeper residual moist Gulf flow/tongue in place feeding from the far SW GOMEXS into southern and central Texas will "spill over" and surge east ahead of the 850mb front owing to greater low-level ThetaE/moisture surge, enhancing instability. 3) Sufficient sfc to low-level convergence along the sfc front to 850mb from a building/strengthening CAA pattern pressing south into the southern MS valley region. All subtle features combined could be enough to develop some isolated t-storms across coastal SE LA into marine areas. Only extra mesoscale feature that could enhance this probability would be the production of an afternoon lake breeze front surging south over the Southshore helping to promote greater sfc convergence, but 8-12kt sustained ENE flow could offset this and even so, orientation would not be favored (but weaker winds will need to be watched). But something all to watch nonetheless. Could convection grow deep enough, gusty winds will be the main threats given sufficient dry air in the low to mid-levels leading to plenty of downward mixing potential. Afterwords going into Friday night and Saturday morning, CAA will continue to deepen helping to promote much drier overall tropospheric air into the region. This is where we will likely see the coolest morning lows aided by radiational cooling. Targeted morning lows towards the 25th percentile in NBM guidance, with emphasis on drainage locations which places a few cooler areas touching the upper 50`s for a short while. Otherwise, with such drier tropospheric air settled in (PW`s in the 0.50-0.75" range) it`ll be hard to find any clouds at all other than some light Cu streets. A real nice Saturday! We begin to see a steady/slight moistening trend on Sunday thanks to surface high pressure drifting east. Still overall a nice day, perhaps a bit hot in the afternoon with highs in the upper 80`s to nearing 90`s but who can complain? A great Memorial day weekend is ahead! KLG LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)... Beginning the new week ahead, we remain high and dry thanks to a building mid-level ridge anchored from the GOMEX, north to the Great Lakes region. This ridge will attempt at closing off some with a steady transition to easterly low/mid-level flow developing. With the moistening trend persisting, we will eventually lower convective temperatures enough (combined with enough instability) to re-welcome back afternoon shower/storm chances. Primarily, starting on Tuesday and building slightly more for each day through late-week. The upper-level flow is rather interesting in this time frame, as deep western US troughing helps to pump much warmer subtropical H5 temperatures surging north into the northern MS valley region. This ofcourse will filter our way especially as the ridge breaks down some and brings us back to a subtle northerly flow regime (riding rebuilds back across northern Mexico/Texas) but such warm temperatures aloft will lead to a struggle for any individual pulse storm to become severe, other than some weak wet microbursts potential, but overall nothing standing out of a major concern at this time. Also, given greater moisture return continuing, we will get heat indicies back into the upper 90`s to lower 100`s for some mid to late-week, which may put a strain on outdoor activities. But a pretty typical summertime pattern as we enter the month of June which is not unheard of. KLG AVIATION (18Z DISCUSSION)... VFR conditions will prevail following departing clouds to the east early this afternoon, with occasionally breezy NW winds. Clear/VFR conditions will continue into this evening and overnight hours, extending into the day on Friday. KLG MARINE... A nearby frontal boundary across coastal areas will continue to stall out this evening into tonight, with the potential for some isolated thunderstorm development across coastal areas during the afternoon/evening hours on Friday. Main threats will be locally gusty winds and enhanced wave/sea activity as well as dangerous lightning. We completely dry out this weekend going into early next week, with light winds and mainly calm seas prevailing. KLG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 59 84 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 63 86 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 64 88 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 68 88 69 88 / 0 10 0 0 GPT 66 88 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 65 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1025 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak area of low pressure move away from the area tonight, with increasingly southerly flow developing ahead of a cold front that will impact the area Friday into early Saturday. High pressure builds back into the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 1025 PM Thu...Developing warm front continues to lift north this evening with some low clouds attempting to develop over the FA. Expect this coverage to gradually expand, particularly west of Highway 17 overnight. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms still look probable along the coast given recent trends of the 00Z HRRR and newest 00Z hi-res guidance. Prev disc...Latest analysis shows weak low across the northern waters with large cut-off upper low pressure system moving through the central US. Low pressure over the central CONUS will continue to advance east with a deep, southerly flow developing across the Eastern US tonight. Increasing moisture advection and modest WAA may support an increased risk of showers and a few thunderstorms late tonight along the coast. Muggy conditions return overnight with southerly flow allowing for dewpoints to creep back into the upper 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows 65-70 deg. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 240 PM Thu...A large cut-off low pressure system moving through central US will continue to push ENE, with attendant cold front impacting the area Friday into Saturday. Strong Srly flow brings warm, moist air into the region, allowing for temps to remain seasonable in the low/mid 80s with dew points climbing into the 70s. Good moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico will help inc deep layer moisture and bring a wide swath of PWAT values up to 1.5-1.9" nearing our climo max ahead of the front, which will be conducive for heavy rainfall amounts of 1-2" per hour. Additionally, the slow-moving nature of the front will allow for potential training and the concern for localized flash flooding. WPC currently has the coastal plain outlooked in a Slight Excessive Rainfall Outlook, with the rest of the FA under a Marginal. Severe weather is also a concern for Fri afternoon and Friday night. Though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, MU CAPE values will peak 15-2000 J/kg, and combine with 30-40 kt of bulk shear. This should be enough to support organized convection, with mix of multicells and supercells possible. SPC continues to outlook areas west of Hwy 17 in a Slight Risk for severe weather, with a Marginal Risk east of Hwy 17...with potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated tornado. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 PM Thu...Cold front will continue to impact the area Friday night and Saturday, bringing another round of rain and thunderstorms. High pressure builds in for the latter half of Memorial Day Weekend. Fri night through Sat...A large cut-off low pressure system will lift into the Mid-Atlantic Friday night, pushing a cold front into the area Friday night and Saturday. Severe threat and localized flood threat will continue for the first part of Friday night with conditions improving late Friday night and Sat morning with deep moisture moving off the coast. Sun Through Wed...Drier conditions expected Sun with high pressure and upper level ridging beginning to build into the region. A stacked high will linger across much of the Eastern US to start off the week, bringing mostly dry conditions through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 745 PM Thu...Skies are now almost entirely clear across TAF terminals although lower clouds continue to linger over the northern Outer Banks near the remnants of the coastal low. VFR conditions will prevail for the first half of the evening but are expected to deteriorate with increasing moisture advection this evening. Guidance has trended somewhat earlier with onset of MVFR cigs and adjusted these times forward an hour or so. Potential for IFR is best along and west of I-95 but cannot completely rule out some lower cigs for PGV/ISO after 06z. Conditions improve tomorrow although showers will be in the area during the morning, transitioning to a thunderstorm threat in the afternoon. A few storms could be strong producing gusty winds and hail, as well as torrential rainfall. Southerly winds will gust as high as 25 kt during the afternoon outside of convective activity. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 335 AM Thu...A cold front will impact the region Friday night and Saturday, bringing periods of rain and tstorms with sub-VFR conditions. With greater moisture across the area, late night and early morning fog will also be possible most days. Prevailing VFR conditions will return Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds overhead. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 240 PM Thu...Latest obs show variable winds less than 10 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Weak low pressure off the northern waters will continue to lift north and weaken this evening. This will allow SE-S flow to develop across the waters, increasing to 10-15 kt by late evening. Seas will remain 2-4 ft through tonight. Gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold front Friday, with southerly winds increasing to 15-25 kt Fri afternoon and evening. Issued SCA for all coastal waters and sounds beginning Fri afternoon. Seas 2-4 ft early Fri will build to 4-6 ft by late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain will be possible Fri afternoon into Friday night. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 240 PM Thu...S to SWrly winds gusting to 25-30 kts, seas 4-7 ft, and a chance for rain and thunderstorms Friday night into early Sat. Winds and seas gradually diminish during the day Sat as cold front slowly departs offshore. SCA seas will continue through mid morning and early afternoon across the southern and central waters. High pressure builds in Sunday and Monday with Srly winds around 10 kts and seas 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for NCZ196-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 7 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ135-150. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD/MS SHORT TERM...CQD/ML LONG TERM...CQD/ML AVIATION...MS/ML MARINE...CQD/ML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1058 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1054 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 Updated for 06z aviation discussion. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected Friday night through Tuesday. Some severe weather is likely with any thunderstorm activity we see Saturday night through Tuesday. - Warm and humid weather expected this weekend through Tuesday. Temperatures retreat back to a little below normal for the second half of next week. Troughing that has been giving us cooler and unsettled weather the last couple of days will shift off to the east tonight, with a ridge moving overhead for Friday. This weekend, we`ll see the upper air pattern become increasingly amplified as a trough digs into the Rockies and strong ridging builds across eastern NOAM. This will keep us locked in a zone of active weather between these two features starting Friday night and lasting through Tuesday night. Today through Friday... Frontal boundary has checked up over eastern WI this afternoon as this segment of the front has been displaced from any sort of forcing, with a northern stream wave now off to the east of the Great Lakes and a southern stream wave in the form of a closed h5 low in the mid Mississippi Valley heading into the Ohio valley. This has meant that there has been very little push to get the clouds out of eastern MN and western WI, with a narrow band of fgen in the h85-h7 layer keeping some light rain going from Albert Lea up toward Eau Claire. Tonight, this clouds will clear out of MN at the very least and lead to the biggest issue this period, the potential for fog formation. A surface ridge axis is forecast by 12z to be aligned from roughly Mankato, up through the Twin Cities and to Duluth. Along this axis, the HRRR has been very aggressive with developing dense fog. Given the short nights right now, radiational fog is tough to achieve, but if we can hold on to the clouds through sunset, with highs staying in the mid 50s, then a 10 degree drop to get fog formation will be attainable for tonight. At this point, we have added a mention of fog to the HWO to account for this threat. Friday, subsidence from the upper ridge moving overhead will lead to what will likely end up being one of the nicest weather days we will see all year, with ample sunshine, light winds, and low humidity. Of course this run of nice weather will be short lived... Friday night through Tuesday night... This period looks to be very active. It won`t be a complete washout by any means, but we will likely see multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Where those storms end up will be dependent on where the cold/warm front is on a daily basis, but given the amplification of the upper ridge to our east, that boundary will be stuck over the upper MS Valley through the period. We`ll likely be looking at not only multiple rounds of thunderstorms, but multiple chances for severe weather with any activity we see Saturday night through Tuesday. Our first shot at showers and thunderstorms will come Friday night into Saturday morning as the LLJ and initial surge of elevated instability moves in. This is probably the one period where severe chances are pretty low due to limited amounts of instability. Chances of storms this period look best from central into northern MN, though models are pretty notorious for underplaying the amount of storms you see with this sort of WAA setup. Behind this initial push of thunderstorms comes a very warm EML that will basically be with us until this airmass gets pushed out of our area Tuesday night. This EML will result in very steep mid-level lapse, but also strong capping that will need some form of forcing to be overcome. That forcing will come in the form of nightly enhancements of the LLJ, frontal boundaries, and shortwaves working through in the southwest flow. For the periods that look to be most active in terms of just thunderstorms, it`s really hard to pin down still at this point due model spread, but the period that models highlight the most for widespread thunderstorms is late Monday through Monday night. From the severe threat perspective, that will come down to mesoscale details, but when taking a step back to see where the best synoptic scale setup for severe weather exists, the CSU Machine-Learning probabilities really highlight Sunday with the best synoptic environment for severe weather. NBM 4.1 CWASP shows severe potential Saturday night through Tuesday, but it`s Monday/Monday night and Tuesday/Tuesday night that shows the highest values across the area. Any severe threat Saturday looks to be mainly hail from elevated storms, while Sunday through Tuesday would bring your surface based storm threats. The heavy rain and excessive rainfall threat looks greatest Monday/Monday night and again Tuesday/Tuesday night with the potential for nearly stationary forcing this period. At either rate, if you have outdoor plans at all this weekend, make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings and know where your nearest safe structure will be. The good news is by Wednesday, the upper air pattern will flatten out, which will dry us out and cool us down for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 VFR stratus continues to slowly scatter out across western Wisconsin, with clear skies and calm winds expected overnight. Fog continues to look less likely overnight, but a few hours of MVFR mist still looks possible at STC & RNH around sunrise. Mist is also possible at MSP & MKT, but will does not look to be dense enough to impact operations. Winds will be calm overnight and gradually becoming southwesterly by morning with speeds increasing to 5-10 kts during the day. Winds become southeasterly tomorrow evening and remain under 10 kts. KMSP...Patchy mist still looks possible around sunrise but visibility is unlikely to drop below VFR criteria for any prolonged period. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind S 10-15G25 kts. Sun...Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind S 10-15G25 kts. Mon...Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind S 10-15g25 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...ETA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
724 PM PDT Thu May 26 2022 .UPDATE...So far this evening, convection has been fairly weak, though there have been thunderstorms across most of the OR portions of the forecast area including central OR. This is a result of thick mid and high level clouds layers which have prevented the atmosphere from heating up to it`s potential this past afternoon, than if it had been more clear. However, as an upper trough continues to move into the region tonight, there could still be a strong to severe storm or two later this evening, though the potential has decreased. The amount of CAPE, shear and negative LI`s are still looking favorable for strong to possibly severe storms, but there is the lack of surface heating. The HREF ensemble Paintball tool still shows widespread convection well into late evening. Thunderstorms will dissipate late evening and overnight, but then they may re-develop Friday afternoon. The main difference is that there will be a lack of instability on Friday compared to today. However, the HREF ensemble Paintball tool is still showing almost as much convection Friday afternoon and evening as was predicted today. Doubt any storms on Friday afternoon/evening will be severe, but there could be a storm or two that could be strong enough for significant weather statements. Another, stronger, upper trough will move into the region on Saturday and it will form a closed upper low as it moves inland into the PacNW. This system could bring an isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, but the main concern with this system will be a lengthy period of significant rainfall. Storm total QPF amounts beginning this evening could top 2.5 inches over the eastern mountains, and over an inch in the Blue Mountain Foothills by Monday morning. This amount of rain will not fall all at once, but will be spread over a three day period. Still, there could be some hydrology concerns, with rises on rivers, streams and creeks in the CWA. There is an EFI index of .8 to .9 for unusually high QPF amounts on Sunday. Will need to address this issue more as the situation evolves. Temperatures will become very cool this weekend with temperatures becoming much below normal, especially on Sunday. Maximum temperatures are not expected reach any higher than the mid 50s to lower 60s in the lower elevations on Sunday. It will also be breezy to windy over much of the forecast area on Sunday, but especially over the eastern Columbia Gorge, north central OR, and the western portions of the OR Lower Columbia Basin. 88 && .AVIATION...06Z TAFs...There may be brief periods of MVFR conditions this evening due to reduced visibility and CIGs with showers and thunderstorms this evening, especially at KRDM, KBDN, KPDT and KALW. The other terminals will have VFR conditions prevailing through the next 24 hours. These conditions will improve overnight, but then may deteriorate again Friday afternoon and evening with more showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be mostly light under 10 kts, but will increase to 10-20 kts with higher gusts near showers and thunderstorms this evening. Then winds will decrease late tonight, and then increase again from 10-20 kts by 18Z Friday. 88 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM PDT Thu May 26 2022/ SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night... An active weather pattern will ensue through the near term with a series of shortwave troughs set to impact the region. The first such wave will lift northeast across Washington and Oregon through tonight, bringing scattered strong to severe storms. The next will follow close on its heels Saturday into Sunday, with a continued wet and occasionally stormy pattern. For the remainder of today into tonight...conditions are still coming together to support a few strong to severe thunderstorms between now and 9 pm. Recent visible satellite imagery shows an expansive area of cloud cover, which has likely lead to some inhibition limiting convective initiation. However, a few pockets of more intense heating have allowed for convective initiation across far southern/southeastern Oregon. As a powerful upper jet streak and associated cold front sweep eastward, expect rather quick development of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon, beginning to the east of the Cascades in central Oregon, then building north and east through tonight. The latest RAP mesoanalysis depicts a rather marginal environment for severe thunderstorms with very modest instability confined primarily to the northeast mountains of Oregon and southeast Washington. This area is likely to build and expand somewhat between now and initiation time, especially as slightly cooler air aloft starts to fill into the region. Wind shear, on the other hand, is quite supportive of storm organization, so if a decent storm can tap into the instability that exists, at least one or two severe storms can occur. Most recent hi-res ensembles (HREF) continue to depict this, thought it does seem as though the number of storms developing at once may be a limiting factor to a more substantial severe event. In any case, large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rains will accompany the strongest storms. The potential for training storms, most notably over the mountains, may promote a localized flood risk. Activity should gradually wane in intensity after sunset, as the boundary layer stabilizes and the main forcing shifts eastward into Idaho. A brief respite in precipitation will occur overnight tonight, but with abundant moisture, the presence of a remnant frontal boundary, and weak upper forcing, showers and isolated storms look to pop rather early on Friday afternoon. The presence of the washed out front oriented nearly parallel to the upper flow could result in a training scenario, where areas receive multiple rounds of moderate rainfall. This issue will be further compounded into the weekend as a potent wave drops southward into the region, resulting in a return of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. The ECMWF EFI depicts QPF values of 0.8 to 0.9 on Saturday, which is consistent with an unusually wet period for late May. The repeat hits of rainfall over the same areas will result in runoff and rises on areas streams, creeks and rivers. Several rivers along the east slopes of the Cascades and in the northeast mountains will rise to bankfull over the weekend and into early next week. Additional rainfall could result in some rivers going into minor flood stage. Rising rivers will be especially hazardous given the upcoming holiday weekend, when many people are recreating around bodies of water, which will be running fast and cold. Be sure to protect yourself from the risk of hypothermia and drowning and keep your eyes on family members and pets if you happen to have plans near water this weekend. In other news, it`s also going to be much cooler this weekend with highs some 10 to 15 degrees below normals. Widespread highs in the 50s to mid 60s can be expected on Saturday as compared to the 70s and 80s today. EFI values for maximum and minimum temperature also depict this between -0.6 and 0.9 over the weekend. Austin/79 LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday... An unsettled pattern will continue over the first part of the long term as a trough remains over the area followed by a quieter dry period Wednesday and Thursday. The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) highlights winds on Sunday afternoon in the 97th percentile and unusually cold temperatures Sunday and Sunday night but after that, no unusual events are noted. Cluster analysis shows that the main variance in the models are primarily in the eastern US and model agreement in our area is fairly good. Model spread in the ensembles are about normal though each model has periods when the deterministic runs are outliers within their ensembles. Overall forecast confidence is normal. Sunday will see a trough over the Pacific Northwest with one closed low offshore and another over Idaho. By Sunday night, the low in Idaho will have moved to the eastern part of that state while the offshore low will have moved ashore and be weakening rapidly. Sunday will see showers across the area tapering off in much of the area during the evening but continuing in the eastern mountains through the night. Most of the lower elevations will see a tenth of an inch or less though the Blue Mountain Foothills could get a quarter to a half of an inch and the mountains up to an inch. Temperatures Sunday will be 10-15 degrees below normal with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s and in the 40s and lower 50s in the mountains. Winds will also be breezy to windy with much of the area seeing 15 to 25 mph winds in the afternoon. Lows Sunday night will be mainly in the 40s with 30s in the mountains. Do not expect freezing temperatures except in the higher mountains and south of Sunriver. On Monday the trough axis will have pushed into eastern Idaho and Utah while a weak low will be sliding down the backside of the trough through our area. The mountains will have another chance of rain while the lower elevations aside from the Blue Mountain Foothills will be dry. Rain amounts will be much lighter and generally no more than a tenth of an inch. Temperatures will be 5-7 degrees warmer than Sunday. Tuesday will see the trough continue moving slowly east and a ridge will be approaching offshore. Aside from a slight chance of few light rain showers in the Washington Cascades and eastern mountains, it will be dry. Temperatures will be approaching normal with highs in the upper 60s and 70s with mid 50s to mid 60s in the mountains. Tuesday night through Thursday morning will be dry with the ridge controlling the weather. Wednesday will have highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s with mid 60s to lower 70s in the mountains. By Thursday afternoon, models have the trough departing with a system approaching the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF have rain over the area by Thursday afternoon, so have a slight chance of rain over most of the area in the late afternoon and evening. Temperatures Thursday will be a few degrees cooler than Wednesday. Perry/83 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 52 66 46 63 / 60 60 40 50 ALW 55 70 49 65 / 80 50 30 40 PSC 58 73 52 69 / 40 20 10 30 YKM 51 70 45 64 / 20 10 0 40 HRI 54 70 49 67 / 50 40 20 50 ELN 49 65 44 62 / 50 20 10 40 RDM 47 63 43 62 / 30 40 30 80 LGD 50 65 45 59 / 70 70 60 70 GCD 47 67 45 62 / 70 50 60 80 DLS 55 68 51 63 / 50 40 30 80 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM....83 AVIATION...88
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
852 PM PDT Thu May 26 2022 Updated Aviation Section .SYNOPSIS...Friday looks to be cooler and showery, before a vigorous low pressure system shifts across the region on Saturday and brings widespread rain and locally breezy south winds. Snow levels will lower Sunday morning to around pass level with showers continuing. A warming and drying trend will begin early next week as an upper level shortwave ridge gradually shifts inland. && .SHORT TERM...Thursday evening through Saturday night...The short term forecast has been adjusted this evening to include a 15% chance of thunder to the east of I-5, mainly for the far eastern Willamette Valley into the Cascade foothills. The latest suite of hi-res model guidance is now showing increasing elevated instability, with MUCAPE values likely rising to around 500 J/kg by 5 or 6 PM PDT. The NAM Nest and the HRRR are both simulating at least a few thunderstorms developing in the aforementioned area between 5-6 PM, before shifting eastward across the Cascades between 6-8 PM. Excess cloud cover today initially suggested the thunderstorm potential is near zero, but this does not matter if the instability aloft materializes like the hi-res models are now showing. This does seem like a plausible outcome given the falling 500 mb heights this evening along with an incoming weak shortwave trough, which should also help enhance forcing for ascent. Once showers and/or thunderstorms push east of the Cascade crest after 8 PM this evening, there should be a break from precipitation across most of northwest OR and southwest WA until a weak cold front pushes inland after midnight tonight and brings a renewed chance for light showers. Post-frontal showers and then expected to continue into tomorrow, especially over the Cascades. Conditions will deteriorate late Friday night into Saturday as a fairly impressive low pressure system for this time of year moves inland. Models have been quite consistent with the track and timing of this low for the past 24 hours, suggesting the center of the low will make landfall somewhere between Newport and Seaside, sometime between 3-6 PM PDT. This low will bring breezy south winds to the south of Newport and Salem, with weaker winds to the north. This is where wind gusts should peak at around 20-30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph or so along the coast. The higher terrain of the central Coast Range may also see gusts around 40-45 mph, mainly along exposed peaks and ridges. It is worth mentioning that the wind field is favorable for funnel clouds or a tornado to the south of Salem Saturday afternoon, but instability looks to be severely lacking. Without the instability, it will be difficult for the low-level helicity to be realized and for updrafts that are strong enough to tilt and stretch any horizontal vorticity into the vertical. For this reason, will downplay the tornado threat on Saturday but maintain a non-zero chance. If you are anywhere in the central and southern Willamette Valley on Saturday and notice breaks of sun occurring, then you should be more alert for the potential tornado threat. If no sun breaks occur (which is what the vast majority of model guidance is suggesting will be the case), then the tornado threat will drop to near zero. The main impact from this low pressure system will be the widespread rain, which looks to be moderate to heavy at times through the day on Saturday given the impressive Q-vector convergence that looks to materialize over the region (which implies strong synoptic-scale lift). In addition, strong frontogenesis is also evident (which implies strong mesoscale lift in addition to the strong synoptic-scale lift). PWAT values look to be around 1 inch, which is also fairly impressive for this time of year. Widespread stratiform rain should transition to showers behind the low Saturday night, with showers continuing into Sunday. Total rain amounts this weekend, snow levels, and expected impacts are discussed below in the long term discussion. -TK .LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday night...Those with outdoor plans this upcoming holiday weekend will need to be prepared for wet, cool, and breezy conditions. This will be especially true Saturday morning through Saturday night, as this is when rain may be heavy at times. Cool and wet conditions will continue behind the low on Sunday, but at least the precipitation will be more showery by then with breaks expected in between showers. Models and their ensembles have been fairly consistent with forecast rain amounts this weekend. The GEFS ensemble mean for QPF is still showing around 1 inch of rain this weekend over the interior lowlands, with amounts closer to 1.5 inches along the coast. 2-3 inches of rain is expected over the higher terrain of the Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and Cascades. While flooding is not expected, this is a good amount of rain for late May. Temperatures will also be around 10 degrees below normal this weekend, with high temperatures only in the mid to upper 50s to around 60 at best. Snow levels will also be lowering Saturday night into Sunday morning, likely falling below pass level by Sunday morning. By Sunday night, the Cascade passes should have around 1-3 inches of new snow. Amounts as high as 6-12 inches are possible for the high Cascades above 5000 feet. While this isn`t very much snow at pass level, it is still enough to result in winter driving conditions. Those traveling over the Cascade passes on Sunday should be prepared for snow-covered roads and reduced visibilities. A warming and drying trend will begin early next week as a shortwave ridge over the eastern Pacific slowly moves eastward over the Pacific Northwest. Monday will feature decreasing showers, and high pressure should be strong enough on Tuesday and Wednesday for dry weather across the entire forecast area. This is also when temperatures will become much warmer. The NBM is suggesting high temperatures in the low to mid 70s by Tuesday, with highs around 80 on Wednesday. -TK && .AVIATION...06Z TAFs: At 0330Z VFR conditions were noted over a vast majority of the forecast area. The main exception was along the coast between KONP and K6S2 where IFR conditions developed. The area of showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed earlier this evening between the east slopes of the Oregon Coast Range and the lower slopes of the Cascade foothills was moving to the northeast at around 35 kt. At 0330Z the remnant showers were focused over the south Washington Cascades. However, doppler radar indicated another line of light precipitation moving onshore between KTMK and KONP. Coastal areas will become predominant MVFR/IFR overnight through early Friday morning. Higher-resolution models suggest a line of showers will move across the coastal areas through 07Z Friday. Expect improvement to VFR by 15Z Friday. However, areas of MVFR are likely to return Friday afternoon as another weak disturbance moves across the area. Inland areas to remain primarily VFR through Friday evening. Model guidance indicates a reasonably high probability (50-70 percent) of MVFR developing along the Cascade foothills between 07Z and 09Z and back-building into the east portion of the Willamette Valley north into western Clark County in southwest Washington. Also, models show a southwest marine surge overnight. This may result in MVFR cigs pushing through the Coast Range gaps into the southwest portion of the Willamette Valley, including KEUG. For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions at the terminal as of 04Z. The area of heavier showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms that moved through the vicinity earlier this evening was located over the south Washington Cascades. VFR to prevail through most of the 06Z TAF period. However, cigs are expected to lower to around 040 late tonight. There is about a 30 percent chance of MVFR cigs between 10Z and 15Z Friday. This chance increases to nearly 60 percent at KTTD and into the west Gorge. Weishaar && .MARINE...No changes to marine forecast. An approaching Pacific frontal system will shift winds southerly this evening producing marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions across parts of PZZ250/270. Brief gusts up to 25 kt are possible overnight Thursday and into Friday morning. Seas will likely build into the 8-10 ft range within these stronger winds, especially for areas north of Tillamook. Winds will remain out of the southwest throughout the day Friday as a second, more robust low makes its way across the Pacific towards the coastal waters. Models have come into good agreement that the low will deepen up until the coastline. This will bring strong impactful winds across the waters during the holiday weekend. Most models show the low coming ashore around Depoe Bay Saturday afternoon. The S-SW sector of the low will contain the strongest winds which will put PZZ255/275 easily into Gale Force wind criteria. A Gale Watch has been issued for these zones late Friday night through Saturday evening. It is very likely that the Watch will be upgraded to a Warning but the timing may be altered and possibly include the northern zones if the track of the low shifts north. Ensemble output from long range models are showing maximum 6 hour wind gusts up to 50 kt for a brief period Saturday afternoon at Buoy 50. Locally elevated seas within these strong winds could build into the mid teens. Small craft conditions will remain across the waters in Sunday. Mariners are highly encouraged to keep an eye on the forecast approaching the holiday weekend. Winds and seas will diminish below advisory criteria by late Sunday as high pressure builds over the NE Pacific. -BrianaMuhlestein && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 nm. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 nm. && $$ Interact with us via social media:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
208 PM PDT Thu May 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS... With low pressure moving in off the Pacific, unsettled weather is expected through the upcoming holiday weekend. Widespread breezy to windy conditions will occur through Saturday with temperatures cooling to below normal over the weekend. Scattered showers are forecast Saturday and Sunday, and even light snow may fall at times in the Sierra this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Anyone who`s lived here long enough knows that making outdoor plans for Memorial Day weekend can be a hit or miss proposition. We will probably add this year as a datapoint in the miss column, though the upcoming weekend won`t be a total freeze or washout like in some past years. If you have camping or outdoor plans, definitely take some wet and cold weather gear and be prepared for winds. * Wind: Today`s big message is going to be yet another multi-day period of windy conditions. Today and tomorrow`s are more generic breezy winds driven mainly by low level pressure and thermal gradients, ~30-40 MPH gust type stuff based on latest HREF and NBM numbers. Still will be an issue for lake recreation with choppy waters. Saturday is where things get spicy as strong upper wave helps increase flow aloft yielding more widespread 40-50 MPH gusts. ECMWF EFI really showing potential for strong winds Saturday especially from I-80 north - good potential for wind advisories eventually. Not anticipating a high/damaging- wind event as NBM probabilities of 60+ MPH gusts are rather low in most areas except the usual wind prone spots along Hwy 395 and of course on the ridges. Winds, while remaining gusty, start to relax some Sunday onward. * Thunderstorms Today: A few t-storms are likely through early evening today, mainly near and east of Hwy 95. This is where the airmass can get hot enough to destabilize but also where wind shear isn`t too strong to rip apart towering Cu. The main concern here are strong outflow winds above 60 MPH and blowing dust, which are showing up in several of the convective resolving models. * Rain/Snow Showers This Weekend: Fast forward to Saturday afternoon, where forcing for ascent ahead of a pronounced upper trough overspreads the area. This should help generate showers with a couple t-storms possible. Scattered showers continue into Sat night and with cold air moving in, we`ll likely start seeing some snow in mountain areas especially from Tahoe north up into the Warners. NBM snowfall probability guidance remains rather slim on amounts, but even less than an inch will catch many off- guard. Additional rain/snow showers are possible Sunday into Monday, but confidence in coverage and amounts is less. A lot of this depends on position of upper low (instability) and/or waves rotating around it (forcing for ascent). That being said, NBM does show non-trivial 15-30% probabilities for 0.1 to 1" of snowfall in the Sierra and Warners Sunday-Monday timeframe. * Cold Temps: Obviously temperatures will drop to below normal levels this weekend which will be a big change to plan for. But I wanted to specifically address the odds of seeing frost/freeze conditions since many gardens are well underway. My budding roses and fruit trees did not fare well during the freezes back in early May. Right now it looks like Monday and Tuesday mornings are the main ones to watch. Urban areas look to remain well above freezing, but typical low elevation cold spots such as Minden, Lovelock, and perhaps even Reno North Valleys have at least a 50/50 chance of hitting freezing per the NBM. -Chris && .AVIATION... Low pressure deepening over eastern Nevada combined with a passing weak shortwave aloft will help generate breezy W/SW winds today, with more on Friday and again Saturday. Expect aviation weather impacts such as wind shear and increased turbulence through the weekend. For the remainder of today and Friday, gusts look to be on the order of 25-35 knots. Then on Saturday, with the approach of a more robust upper low and frontal zone over the region, more widespread strong winds are looking likely with gusts 30-40 knots common. Rides will definitely be rougher Saturday. Can`t rule out higher gusts, with 30-40% chances of 40-50 knots at most airfields including RNO, TVL, and MMH. A few fast moving showers or t-storms remain possible mainly near and east of HTH-NFL-LOL-WMC through early evening today. HRRR and HREF members all showing this. While not strong storms, they will produce lightning and strong outflow winds to 50 knots with blowing dust visibility restrictions possible. -Chris && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ001>004. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday NVZ001>004. CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ071>073. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday CAZ071>073. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
842 PM PDT Thu May 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will decrease through the weekend, finally dropping below seasonal averages Sunday afternoon. The weather system that is responsible for the drop in temperatures will also bring gusty southwest winds to the region and conditions conducive with high fire danger. Temperatures will remain below-average through early next week before heat returns. && .UPDATE...Satellite imagery picked up on two wildfire signatures near the southern end of our forecast area. Southerly winds are carrying smoke plumes from the Lost Lake wildfire southwest of Parker AZ and the Elk Fire in Yucca Valley CA to the northeast. The 00z HRRR Smoke product has a smoke plume over Lake Havasu through about 10 pm when winds are forecast to decrease. Gusty conditions across the region this evening are expected to decrease overnight. A batch of high clouds over northern Clark County are moving north into Lincoln County while a second batch of mid and high clouds over the western forecast area are forecast to move east overnight. The Red Flag Warning for Southern Nevada and Northwest Arizona expired at 8 pm this evening but another warning will go into effect again at noon Friday as winds pick back up. && .PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM PDT Thu May 26 2022... .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. Today is the hottest day of the forecast period, with Las Vegas sitting at 101F at 2 PM PDT this afternoon. The ridge associated with these above-average temperatures will shift eastward today, making way for yet another weekend weather system that will bring gusty winds and cool down the region by about 5-7 degrees each day. [Weekend Recreation] In town, school has let out for the summer, and friends and families gear up for Memorial Day Weekend activities. People planning to engage in outdoor recreation this weekend are encouraged to keep a close eye on the forecast and follow any and all fire restrictions. Vegetation across the southern Great Basin and Mojave Deserts is very dry, making it prone to fire ignition, especially when aligned with dry air and gusty winds. The incoming weather system will bring gusty northwest winds to the southern Great Basin and gusty southwest winds elsewhere each afternoon this weekend. As such, recreation involving sparks or flames is discouraged, but if done, always ensure there is plenty of water nearby in the event of accidental fire starts. Additionally, gusty winds will result in increased wave activity on area lakes. Those operating small craft must exercise additional caution due to wave heights between 1 and 2 feet expected on Lake Mead and Lake Mohave through the weekend. [Fire Danger] High resolution model data indicated higher winds this afternoon than originally forecast, so I hoisted a Red Flag Warning from 12 PM to 8 PM this evening for southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. Heights will continue to fall this weekend, with increasing winds each afternoon. As such, I issued Red Flag Warnings for Friday and Saturday afternoons as well for the same zones - southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. However, on Saturday, as this system moves inland, GEFS IVT shows a moisture flux across the Mojave Desert on Saturday. Though this flux isn`t grand enough to result in any precipitation, it will work to increase afternoon relative humidities in the higher elevations of Clark County (Spring Mountains and Sheep Range) and southeastern California. For this reason, these zones have been excluded from the Red Flag Warning on Saturday. [Wind] Forecast winds have increased across the western Mojave Desert on Saturday, with forecast westerly winds between 45 and 55 mph in western San Bernardino County. I issued a Wind Advisory for Zone 523 as a result from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday. As we get closer to the event, it is possible that additional zones are added to this Wind Advisory along the Mojave Desert stretch from San Bernardino to the Arizona Strip, but confidence at this time of widespread gusts in these areas above 40 mph remains low-to-moderate. [Temperatures] As forecast high temperatures drop each afternoon, so does HeatRisk. However, for those getting their Memorial Day Weekend activities started early, it is important to note that "Moderate" HeatRisk remains for the lower elevations through Friday afternoon. Cities in these aforementioned `lower elevations` include Las Vegas, Pahrump, Death Valley, Mesquite, Lake Havasu City, and Littlefield. Temperatures will drop to just a few degrees above-average on Saturday, then dropping to 4-6 degrees below-average on Sunday, bottoming out on Memorial Day with over 10 degrees below seasonal averages. .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday. Beyond Monday, temperatures are expected to rebound. However, the speed at which we see temperature warm back up will be heavily dependent on how long the trough lingers over the region. Should the trough linger over the Great Basin/Intermountain West longer, temperatures will be slower to recover. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...South-southeast winds early this afternoon with gusts 20-25 knots. The wind will become more southerly later in the day with gusts around 25 knots continuing through late this evening. For Friday, south to southwest winds with gusts of 20-25 kts primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. FEW-SCT high clouds can be expected through the period. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Breezy south or southwesterly winds are expected this afternoon, continuing through this evening with gusts 20-30 knots likely. Similar wind conditions are expected on Friday. FEW-SCT high clouds can be expected through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER...Increased winds coupled with dry air and critical fuels will result in high fire danger each afternoon this weekend for southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. Winds will trend from the northwest across the southern Great Basin, and from the southwest in far southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. A meager moisture flux on Saturday will help keep the higher elevations between 25 and 35 percent in the afternoon, but will do little to mitigate fire concerns in the valleys. Red Flag Warnings have been hoisted for each afternoon, today through Saturday, with additional warnings possible on Sunday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Salmen SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Varian LONG TERM...Stessman AVIATION...Czyzyk For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: or follow us on Facebook and Twitter