Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/27/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Thu May 26 2022
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Winds will remain light tonight with areas of smoke likely to impact
areas in the vcnty of wildfires. SW winds will strengthen on Friday
with gusts of 20 to 30 kt likely at most terminals aft 20Z. Clouds
will develop over the high terrain by 19Z then spread east/northeast
into nearby valleys and highlands thru late day. Sprinkles and light
rain showers are possible around the high terrain stretching from
near ABQ to Santa Fe, Las Vegas, and Raton aft 22Z. This activity
will be capable of producing strong, erratic wind gusts up to 40 kt
with blowing dust.
Guyer
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT Thu May 26 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Near record to record heat arrives Friday with increasing
southwesterly winds injecting the next round of critical fire weather
Saturday and through the Memorial Day weekend. Windy weather with
potential for blowing dust will be the rule each afternoon through
Tuesday. The risk of critical fire weather is particular high this
holiday weekend given the dry, warm, and high wind potential. Highs
will generally trend down, remaining above normal until Sunday,
falling below normal for western areas. This cooling trend continues
into next week as winds also subside by Wednesday. This will usher in
a new weather pattern bringing increased moisture from the Great
Plains as far as the Rio Grande Valley by Thursday. There will be a
corresponding rise in chances for afternoon thunderstorms for areas
along and east of the Rio Grande Valley as a result.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A ridge of high pressure will finish crossing the forecast area from
the west over the next 36 hours with record and near record warmth
expected Friday afternoon. We expect to mix to 500 mb in most places
Friday afternoon, with gusty southwest winds areawide. A disturbance
crossing the central Rockies may provide enough mid level moisture
and instability to trigger isolated and gusty virga showers late
Friday afternoon from the east slopes of the west central mountains
northeastward to the central and northern mountains, then onto the
northeast plains as well in the early evening. There could even be a
few claps of thunder along the CO border.
There is some concern about modest to potentially moderate smoke
making it`s way northeastward from the Black and Bear Trap Fires
over the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas late tonight. The HRRR has
been consistently showing this, and 700 mb winds out of the SSW over
those fires on the GFS20 suggest the HRRR may be onto something. The
current Air Quality Advisory does not include these metro areas, but
may be expanded (especially to ABQ) if needed.
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A very active and persistently windy weather pattern still looks to
take hold this weekend for the Long Term period, unfortunately. The
suite of global models shows a deepening troughing pattern developing
over the western CONUS with a closed low moving ashore the PacNW
Saturday. This sets up strengthening southwest winds aloft over New
Mexico. H7 winds of 35-45kts look to easily mix to the surface,
coupled with a lee surface trough over east-central CO bringing windy
weather area wide and perhaps some patchy blowing dust during the
afternoon. Thanks to the position of the lee surface trough, the
strong winds likely reaching advisory level look to focus through the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeastern highlands from Las Vegas
to Raton. Highs will be near record for many central and eastern
locales. The flow aloft strengthens further Sunday with a similar
setup. Advisory level wind speeds look to be more widespread however.
Pressure heights also begin falling with a corresponding dip in high
temperatures.
Monday, Memorial Day, looks to be the peak wind event of the
forecast period. First, there is potential for mountain wave activity
to reach the northern mountains Sunday night into Monday morning.
Numerical model cross-sections show some mountain wave signatures
over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains during this time, however
confidence is rather low. Decoupling of surface winds looks to be
slow to occur Sunday night, and the southwest orientation of the
winds across the N-S orientation of the Sangre de Cristos
doesnt favor a high confidence mountain wave forecast.
Nevertheless, ridge tops and higher elevations do look to remain
windy through Sunday night. Thereafter, models depict varying
solutions of a vort-max rounding an upper low over the Great Basin
area during the day Monday. This will further strengthen southwest
flow over New Mexico. Area wide near advisory level winds look
likely, with the strongest winds focused through the northeastern
plains where the sharpest surface pressure gradient will lay. High
wind potential does exist for Monday in this area.
The extended period continues to show hope on the horizon for
Wednesday and now Thursday with the aforementioned upper low quickly
ejecting over the northern Great Plains. It sends down a backdoor
cold front through eastern NM Wednesday in its wake, cooling the
eastern plains with a nice influx of low level moisture. Afternoon
thunderstorm activity looks favored Wednesday afternoon, with outflow
from these storms kicking moisture further west into the central
valley areas for Thursday. This will finally bring chances for
afternoon thunderstorm activity into the Rio Grande Valley, and maybe
Albuquerque ends its long streak of days without measurable
precipitation.
44/24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALL AREAS DUE TO STRONG WINDS, LOW HUMIDITIES
AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...
...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A ridge of high pressure will finish crossing the forecast area on
Friday with record and near record high temperatures. Southwest
winds will become gusty areawide as the atmosphere mixes to around
18K feet. Locally breezy and locally critical fire weather
conditions are expected from the north central mountains
southeastward across the east central plains Friday afternoon, with
the most favored locations in the mountains along the CO border, and
at lower elevations from Las Vegas to around Clines Corners and
Clovis. In addition, CAMs suggest a disturbance crossing the central
Rockies may interject enough mid level moisture for isolated gusty
and high based virga showers late Friday afternoon and early
evening. The greatest consensus appears to be over the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains, with some models suggesting the convection could
occur as far southwest as the central and west central mountains in
the late afternoon, and as far northeast as Union County in the
early evening. There may even be a few claps of thunder mainly in
the mountains near the CO border.
A fire growing pattern will develop Saturday through Tuesday as a
broad low pressure system moves over the western US steering the
polar jet stream gradually closer to, and eventually over, northern
NM. Stout surface troughs will also regenerate each day in the lee
of the southern Rockies. As a result, widespread critical fire
weather condtions are expected daily. Southwest winds look to gust
from 35-45 mph Saturday, then from 40-50 mph Sunday and 40-55 mph
Monday. Winds look to weaken a notch on Tuesday, while remaining
strong enough for a lingering round of critical fire weather
conditions along and east of the central mountain chain.
Temperatures will begin to cool near normal over western areas on
Sunday, with highs a few to 7 degrees below normal mainly west of
the Rio Grande Monday. Meanwhile, poor humidity recoveries are
forecast over all areas except Curry and Roosevelt Counties Friday
night, areawide Saturday night, and along and east of the central
mountain chain Sunday night.
A gusty and moist backdoor cold front is then forecast to dive
southwestward through eastern then central areas Tuesday night and
Wednesday with a chance for thunderstorms, potentially wetting rain,
and relief from the heat.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
for the following zones... NMZ101>109.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1022 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and a slow moving cold front approaching from the
west will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms
will gradually taper off from west to east Saturday, with fair
weather returning for Sunday into Monday, along with warmer
temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Updated at 1020 PM EDT. Clouds are slowly spreading north and
thickening in southerly flow across the region late this
evening. Radar and observations are not indicating any rainfall
in southeast NY, and the latest HRRR and NAM nest is implying
little to no rain over the mid-Hudson Valley and Catskills
overnight, so lowered already low pops in that area to keep any
mention of rain in the forecast out overnight. Clouds will keep
temperatures a bit milder than recent nights, with lows in the
mid 50s to mid 60s. Previous discussion is below.
Updated at 730 PM EDT. Broken mostly mid-level cloud cover is
being observed across the area early this evening, with some
lower cigs just to the south. A persistent southerly breeze
through the night should allow for some of these lower cigs to
advect northward overnight, with mainly cloudy skies expected by
daybreak Friday. Dew points will also be creeping upward
overnight and there could be some very light, patchy fog toward
morning. Clouds and southerly breezes should keep temperatures
warmer than the past several nights, with lows mainly from the
mid 50s to lower 60s.
As of 4 PM EDT, low clouds have expanded northeast from the SE
Catskills into the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, much of
Litchfield County into central/southern Berkshire County. These
clouds are expected to remain in place over the next few hours,
before ultimately expanding north and west later this evening,
with additional low clouds developing across the southern
Adirondacks after midnight.
Meanwhile, isolated/scattered showers currently developing
across western PA are expected to translate northeast this
evening, and may reach portions of the SW Adirondacks toward
midnight. Have chance PoPs for that region continuing overnight
as additional showers developing upstream may at least graze
that region. Will have to watch trends, in case these showers
expand farther east than currently forecast into the Mohawk
Valley and perhaps the Lake George/Saratoga region after
midnight.
Additional isolated showers or spotty drizzle may develop late
tonight across portions of the SE Catskills into the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT/southern Berkshires.
Otherwise, remaining breezy and mild with increasing humidity
levels. South winds may still gust up to 25-30 mph at times this
evening within north/south oriented valleys and higher terrain
areas, with some gradual decreasing in gust magnitudes after
midnight.
Low temps generally in the mid 50s to lower/mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms and Isolated Flash
Flooding Friday into Friday Night...
Slow moving cold front will approach from the west during
Friday. Little in the way of rain is expected during the morning
hours from the Hudson River Valley and points east, with perhaps
some showers across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley at
times. Better chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms
develop Friday afternoon, initially across the SW Adirondacks
and Mohawk Valley region, before eventually shifting south and
east toward the Capital Region, SE Catskills and mid Hudson
Valley region toward sunset.
Convective parameters for Friday afternoon suggest the most
likely mode of convection would be multi-cell clusters that
could form into bowing segments, as MU CAPES increase to
500-1000 J/kg, with 0-6km shear of 30-35 KT. There will be some
enhanced low level helicity within the Hudson River Valley due
to the southerly winds, so can not completely rule out some
isolated supercells, however best potential, which looks
isolated at this time, appears to be mainly damaging wind gusts
from any bowing segments that develop.
The aforementioned instability will be highly dependent on cloud
coverage, which is currently expected to be fairly widespread.
However, there could be some breaks developing in the afternoon,
especially across the Mohawk Valley region. Should more
prolonged breaks in cloud cover develop, greater instability
could allow the current marginal/isolated severe potential
increase in coverage.
Also, PWAT`s increase to around 1.5" by late Friday afternoon,
with winds fairly unidirectional from the south/southwest
through a deep layer of the atmosphere. This could lead to
training of convective cells, allowing for pockets of heavy rain
to develop. Should this occur, can not rule out a few instances
of flash flooding.
It will remain breezy with south to southwest winds gusting to
25-30 mph at times, especially in the afternoon.
Max temps should reach 75-80 in most valley areas, and 70-75 for
higher terrain areas. It will also be humid as dewpoints climb
into the lower/mid 60s.
Occasional showers/thunderstorms continue through Friday night,
with locally heavy downpours possible. Lows mainly in the mid
50s to lower/mid 60s.
On Saturday, the cold front should be approaching the Hudson
River Valley by late morning, and should be slowly moving into
western New England during the afternoon hours. Depending on its
forward speed, there could be a brief window for
destabilization for areas mainly south and east of Albany, with
some guidance suggesting MUCAPES building to 1000-1500 J/kg.
0-6 km shear should remain 30-35 KT for areas south/east of
Albany, so some storm organization could occur if this front
remains slow. This potential looks greatest for areas south and
east of Albany, mainly between late morning and early afternoon.
Otherwise, clearing is possible from NW to SE during the mid to
late afternoon hours Saturday. West to northwest winds may
increase and become gusty in the wake of the front, especially
within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires, where
some gusts of 25-30 mph are possible. Max temps may reach 70-75
or slightly warmer in valley areas south and east of Albany,
with mainly 60s to lower 70s to the north and west. Should the
front track through slower, even warmer max temps may occur
across portions of western New England and the mid Hudson
Valley.
Fair and cooler for Saturday night, with some patchy fog
possible. Low temps by daybreak Sunday ranging from the
lower/mid 40s across the southern Adirondacks, to the 50s
elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Guidance is in good agreement that upper ridging is likely to
persist throughout the long term period keeping the region largely
warm and dry from Memorial Day Weekend into early June.
In general, high temperature Sunday through Wednesday will be above
normal. On Sunday, highs will reach into the upper 70s for most
locales with the immediate Hudson Valley potentially making it into
the low 80s. The heat will increase into Monday and Tuesday with
widespread upper 80s in the valleys with low 90s possible,
particularly in the southern reaches of the CWA in the mid-Hudson
Valley and in the cities of the Capital District. These forecast
values are approaching daily records on both days, with Tuesday
looking more likely to perhaps tie values set across the region in
2013. Wednesday brings a modicum of relief with highs only reaching
the mid 80s. Low temps are likely to remain in the 50s Sunday night,
and subsequently only fall into the low to mid 60s in the valleys
and upper 50s in higher terrain on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday
nights. Dewpoint temperatures start the period in the 50s but
increase into the low 60s for Monday through Wednesday yielding a
hot and muggy airmass for Memorial Day and into the workweek.
Winds throughout the forecast period are likely to persist out of
the west, with some gusts in excess of 15 kt Monday and Tuesday
afternoons when a deep well-mixed layer may allow for higher
momentum air to mix down to the surface. Winds may turn southerly
along the Hudson River during the day Wednesday. Sky conditions
appear likely to be mostly sunny on Sunday before increasing
somewhat in step with increased surface humidity resulting in partly
cloudy skies for most locales from Tuesday onward.
Precipitation looks unlikely through the extended forecast period
with no PoPs included through 00Z Thursday. Guidance suggests a
number of pulses of vorticity may ride up and over the ridge, but
there is good agreement that these systems are likely to remain too
far to the north to add any appreciable PoPs to the forecast for
now. Looking ahead, the next chance for rain isn`t until Thursday
when a frontal system could signal a large scale pattern shift.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
All terminals are currently experiencing VFR conditions which should
persist into the evening until cigs lower to MVFR from south to
north beginning at POU by 02Z, reaching GFL by 09Z. Cigs will
continue to lower through the night, potentially reaching IFR range
at POU by 08Z. Cigs should lift somewhat back into borderline
MVFR/VFR ranges as daytime heating allows for upward mixing after
daybreak, around 12-18Z. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to
affect all terminals tomorrow afternoon, beginning around 16-19Z.
These convective showers may bring occasionally lowered cigs and
vsbys could quickly be reduced by any precipitation into IFR/MVFR
ranges. PROB groups have been included to illustrate the
uncertainty in coverage of convective storms at this lead time.
Winds this evening are from the south at 10-15 kt gusting 18-22 kt,
except at POU where southerly winds are lighter at 6-8 kt. Speeds
should moderate after nightfall when downward mixing of momentum
from aloft is reduced, yielding 6-10 kt winds through the night. 20-
25 kt gusts may again pick up again at ALB/GFL/PSF after daybreak
when vertical mixing is re-initiated.
Outlook...
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Memorial Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind gusts up to 25 to 30 mph possible Friday afternoon...
Low pressure and a slow moving cold front approaching from the
west will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms
will gradually taper off from west to east Saturday, with fair
weather returning for Sunday into Monday, along with warmer
temperatures.
RH values should recover to 90-100 percent tonight, then drop to
55-70 percent Friday afternoon.
South to southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph this
evening should decrease to 5-15 mph later tonight, then increase
once again to 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Friday
afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms should become widespread late Friday
afternoon into Friday night.
Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Some spotty light showers are possible across the southern
Adirondacks tonight, as well as across portions of the southeast
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County.
More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop late Friday afternoon and continue through Friday night,
before gradually decreasing in coverage Saturday. With a moist
airmass in place, and relatively unidirectional winds through a
deep layer of the atmosphere, locally heavy rain will be
possible, along with the possibility for some training of
showers/thunderstorms.
In areas which receive frequent and/or multiple rounds of
showers/thunderstorms, isolated flash flooding is possible,
particularly in poor drainage/urban areas.
River levels are only expected to exhibit small rises from this
rainfall, however, as antecedent conditions have been fairly
dry, with streamflows generally running near to below normal for
late May.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/Speciale
NEAR TERM...MSE/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Picard
FIRE WEATHER...KL/Speciale
HYDROLOGY...KL/Speciale
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1047 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022
Key Messages:
- Rain and storm chances ending by early evening
- A warming trend Friday through Monday with periodic storm
chances.
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING:
At 18Z, radar was showing storms approaching Interstate 80, some
warned on. This cluster is expected to continue moving north in
~1000 J /Kg of MLCAPE ahead, through KDBQ /per SPC mesoa/. Current
timing is around 21Z/4pm entering Grant county. The slow moving cold
front and CAPE gradient are currently located in southern Grant
county, with MUCAPE nearing 2000 south of KDBQ...and a decreasing
gradient northward into Grant county with a near 0 line around
Highway 18. Besides some pop-up showers and storms, this instability
should allow the I-80 storms to shift in and begin weakening as they
head north. Latest HRRR runs confirm this and seem reasonable. With
the wind shear minimal, pulse storms would be expected without much
organization. Hail has been observed in the nickel to quarter range
further south...which is possible as an outlier high-end in far
southern Grant. Earlier thoughts included the possibility of a
funnel/NST/landspout type tornado but the surface wind pattern is
fairly chaotic at this time in the south. There seems to be a
limited 2-3 hour period of storms, peaking around 22-23Z. This
evening, more progression southeastward is expected with the front,
stabilizing the south.
Further north, radar is still indicating the elevated shower band
persisting from Taylor county into southcentral MN. For the next
hours this zone will persist as the radar wind profile is showing
little depth increase to the frontal zone over La Crosse, WI.
However, as the larger scale progression begins into late afternoon,
this shower band should dissolve. Finally, high pressure and ridge
building overnight will scour clouds, with Friday looking stellar
and much warmer.
WEEKEND RAIN/STORM CHANCES:
Ensemble solutions have come into good agreement on the overall
pattern through the weekend, as troughing moves off across the east
coast. A ridge is expected to build over the Central U.S., as large
scale troughing digs across the west. Shortwave energy moving over
the area will flatten the ridge and bring precipitation chances on
Saturday afternoon. As ridging begins to amplify to the east on
Sunday, shortwave energy moving through the upper flow will be
pushed further north. Trends suggest that this will work to keep the
bulk of the storms west and north of the forecast area (along with
the severe risk).
Precipitation returns by Tuesday as a boundary approaches the area.
However, disagreement among the ensemble solutions remain on the
progression of the upper level pattern. Overall, models suggest
precipitation will move back across the area, but uncertainty
remains on timing and coverage of this precipitation. With this
uncertainty it is too early to determine severe potential, but will
continue to monitor as the forecast period gets closer.
SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY:
A warm weekend is expected ahead as ensemble guidance shows a
consistent trend in increased temperatures throughout the weekend.
Highs in the 70s are expected to move back in on Saturday and
continue increasing through the weekend. By Monday there is high
confidence in temperatures reaching the upper 80s/near 90, supported
by small spread (only 3-4 degree F) between the 25th and 75th
percentiles of the NBM. This could be a 10-15 degree difference from
Saturday to Monday for some, so something to keep in mind for any
outdoor activities planned over the holiday.
With uncertainties on the progression of the upper level pattern,
there still remains large spread amongst ensemble solutions for
temperatures midweek. However, ensemble guidance suggests a
decreasing trend in temperatures, with EPS ensemble means staying
below model climatology into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022
MVFR ceilings are not anticipated to last much longer tonight at
KLSE with KRST already in VFR ceilings. Ceilings will continue
improving these next couple hours then becoming VFR by 07z if not
earlier. Eventually the stratus cloud deck will move out leading to
clear skies and VFR conditions to persist through the remainder of
the period. Any overnight fog development is anticipated to remain
west of KRST. Winds from the north will be around 10 knots or less
through much of the period then quickly become southerly near the
end of the forecast period.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baumgardt/EMS
AVIATION...Peters
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
713 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022
As a slow-moving storm system drifts across Illinois, scattered
showers will linger into Friday. While Friday will see cooler
temperatures, expect a significant warmup for the holiday weekend.
By Memorial Day, high temperatures will be close to 90 degrees.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022
Band of convection has lifted north of I-74 and weakened
considerably early this evening with 00z/7pm radar imagery showing
little to no lightning lingering across the N/NE KILX CWA. Further
south, only widely scattered very light showers are noted. As low
pressure pivots overhead, am expecting just isolated showers
across much of the area tonight. The exception will be northwest
of the I-55 corridor where scattered showers will linger and
perhaps become a bit more numerous toward daybreak. Have updated
the forecast to better reflect current and expected PoP trends for
the remainder of the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022
Early afternoon surface map shows low pressure over Missouri, with
a cold front arcing approaching our area from the southwest.
Numerous thunderstorms are covering the forecast area, most in a
band from Lawrenceville northwest through Peoria, with an isolated
severe storm east of Mattoon. These storms are being fed by 2000+
J/kg CAPE`s, though shear has not been a major issue, so severe
storms have been more of the pulse variety. Short range hi-res
models show the bulk of these storms out of our area by 7 pm
except near Champaign and Danville.
As the low pressure moves into central Illinois early this
evening, many of the showers will diminish. However, an arc of
rain will persist a good portion of the night northwest of the
Illinois River, wrapping around the low. With the pivot point
between the front and the old boundary just to our north, the
heaviest rain should concentrate in north central Illinois. Toward
morning, this rain band will track eastward as the low pulls
further away. However, rain chances will linger into the afternoon
east of I-55.
With the upper low only slowly lifting northeast on Friday, a cool
north/northwest flow will keep highs confined to the mid/upper
60s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022
Longer range forecast continues to trend back to the very warm and
humid conditions, as an upper level ridge shifts east across the
Mississippi Valley. By Memorial Day, highs return to around 90
degrees, which should persist for a few days.
The resulting upper level high should flatten out some as we get
into midweek. However, longer range guidance is in agreement in
keeping the main upper low up in Canada. More of a fast moving
wave should track across the Midwest on Wednesday, with good
agreement in a passage across central Illinois. Beyond that, the
blended guidance may be hanging onto the rain a bit too long, as
a surface high builds into the mid Mississippi Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022
Band of scattered convection continues to lift northward across
the I-74 corridor and weaken early this evening. Based on radar
trends, have opted to mention thunder at KBMI/KCMI...with just
VCSH at the other terminals. A patch of MVFR ceilings is noted at
KBMI and KCMI, but this will improve to VFR over the next 1-2
hours as the convective band departs. After that, ceilings will
remain VFR for several hours before lowering to MVFR/IFR
overnight into Friday morning. Latest HRRR and NAM forecast
soundings, suggest MVFR developing at KPIA by 06z...then further
east to KCMI by around 09z. Once ceilings come down, they will
stay there until gradually improving by late Friday afternoon.
Winds will become light/variable tonight as low pressure moves
overhead, then will veer to N/NW on Friday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SYNOPSIS...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
944 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022
...EVENING UPDATE...
No significant changes to the ongoing forecast are required this
evening. Winds were adjusted slightly to reflect the more
southerly component in place this evening, but a shift to the
southwest and west is still anticipated later tonight into
tomorrow in response to a reinforcing frontal boundary and weak
upper level vort lobe sliding through the area tomorrow morning.
Otherwise, all of the forecast parameters are tracking well with
observed values this evening. PG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022/
AVIATION (00Z TAF DISCUSSION)...A much drier and stable airmass
is advecting into the area this afternoon and will remain in place
through tomorrow evening. As a result, clear skies will be the
rule resulting in prevailing VFR conditions. PG
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022/
SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Starting off with early this evening, we finally say goodbye to
all the clouds and rain as a strong, dynamic storm system surges a
cold front and associated convection east of the area. Glancing
through HRRR soundings valid to around 22-00Z illustrates much
deeper, drier tropospheric air building in aloft above a well-
mixed PBL. Meanwhile looking at a broader view across the US, the
aforementioned dynamic storm system characterized by a closed-off
558mb cold-core low continues to slowly drift east across the
mid-MS valley region, placing our area just about due south
helping to promote zonal mid-level flow. The orientation of the
frontal boundary becoming more west/east will parallel the
vertical wind flow helping to slow it`s progression tonight into
the day on Friday, with a gradient of 65-70 degree dewpoints still
creeping in across coastal SE LA right ahead of the front,
comparable to low 50 degree dewpoints over SW MS. Ofcourse, given
such a dry tropospheric profile in place, this front will remain
dry going into Friday morning. However, have noticed some HREF
members attempting at developing some scattered convection along
the front across coastal SE LA & adjacent marine areas from 18Z to
around or shortly after 00Z Friday afternoon and evening. Taking
a closer look at what trigger mechanisms would lead to this being
even relatively plausible displays a few key features to watch
for. 1) The potential for upstream PVA/energy impulses along a
then becoming NW upper-level flow could help to aid in subtle
dynamic ascent aloft, especially by identifying the evolution of
the cold core low transitioning more positive-tilt (greater
curvature axis falling back from southern LA, NE into the Ohio
Valley region). 2) Rebuilding SB instability within the warm
sector, while might not be a whole lot due to dry air in the mid-
levels from compressional warming/drying present, but still could
build enough of a skinny cape profile dependent on eventual
MaxT`s/Td`s. Add to that, deeper residual moist Gulf flow/tongue
in place feeding from the far SW GOMEXS into southern and central
Texas will "spill over" and surge east ahead of the 850mb front
owing to greater low-level ThetaE/moisture surge, enhancing
instability. 3) Sufficient sfc to low-level convergence along the
sfc front to 850mb from a building/strengthening CAA pattern
pressing south into the southern MS valley region. All subtle
features combined could be enough to develop some isolated
t-storms across coastal SE LA into marine areas. Only extra
mesoscale feature that could enhance this probability would be the
production of an afternoon lake breeze front surging south over
the Southshore helping to promote greater sfc convergence, but
8-12kt sustained ENE flow could offset this and even so,
orientation would not be favored (but weaker winds will need to be
watched). But something all to watch nonetheless. Could
convection grow deep enough, gusty winds will be the main threats
given sufficient dry air in the low to mid-levels leading to
plenty of downward mixing potential.
Afterwords going into Friday night and Saturday morning, CAA will
continue to deepen helping to promote much drier overall
tropospheric air into the region. This is where we will likely
see the coolest morning lows aided by radiational cooling.
Targeted morning lows towards the 25th percentile in NBM guidance,
with emphasis on drainage locations which places a few cooler
areas touching the upper 50`s for a short while. Otherwise, with
such drier tropospheric air settled in (PW`s in the 0.50-0.75"
range) it`ll be hard to find any clouds at all other than some
light Cu streets. A real nice Saturday!
We begin to see a steady/slight moistening trend on Sunday thanks
to surface high pressure drifting east. Still overall a nice day,
perhaps a bit hot in the afternoon with highs in the upper 80`s
to nearing 90`s but who can complain? A great Memorial day weekend
is ahead! KLG
LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...
Beginning the new week ahead, we remain high and dry thanks to a
building mid-level ridge anchored from the GOMEX, north to the
Great Lakes region. This ridge will attempt at closing off some
with a steady transition to easterly low/mid-level flow
developing. With the moistening trend persisting, we will
eventually lower convective temperatures enough (combined with
enough instability) to re-welcome back afternoon shower/storm
chances. Primarily, starting on Tuesday and building slightly more
for each day through late-week. The upper-level flow is rather
interesting in this time frame, as deep western US troughing helps
to pump much warmer subtropical H5 temperatures surging north
into the northern MS valley region. This ofcourse will filter our
way especially as the ridge breaks down some and brings us back to
a subtle northerly flow regime (riding rebuilds back across
northern Mexico/Texas) but such warm temperatures aloft will lead
to a struggle for any individual pulse storm to become severe,
other than some weak wet microbursts potential, but overall
nothing standing out of a major concern at this time.
Also, given greater moisture return continuing, we will get heat
indicies back into the upper 90`s to lower 100`s for some mid to
late-week, which may put a strain on outdoor activities. But a
pretty typical summertime pattern as we enter the month of June
which is not unheard of. KLG
AVIATION (18Z DISCUSSION)...
VFR conditions will prevail following departing clouds to the
east early this afternoon, with occasionally breezy NW winds.
Clear/VFR conditions will continue into this evening and
overnight hours, extending into the day on Friday. KLG
MARINE...
A nearby frontal boundary across coastal areas will continue to
stall out this evening into tonight, with the potential for some
isolated thunderstorm development across coastal areas during the
afternoon/evening hours on Friday. Main threats will be locally
gusty winds and enhanced wave/sea activity as well as dangerous
lightning. We completely dry out this weekend going into early
next week, with light winds and mainly calm seas prevailing. KLG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 59 84 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 63 86 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 64 88 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 68 88 69 88 / 0 10 0 0
GPT 66 88 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 65 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1025 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure move away from the area tonight,
with increasingly southerly flow developing ahead of a cold
front that will impact the area Friday into early Saturday. High
pressure builds back into the region early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1025 PM Thu...Developing warm front continues to lift
north this evening with some low clouds attempting to develop
over the FA. Expect this coverage to gradually expand,
particularly west of Highway 17 overnight. A few isolated
showers and thunderstorms still look probable along the coast
given recent trends of the 00Z HRRR and newest 00Z hi-res
guidance.
Prev disc...Latest analysis shows weak low across the northern
waters with large cut-off upper low pressure system moving
through the central US. Low pressure over the central CONUS will
continue to advance east with a deep, southerly flow developing
across the Eastern US tonight. Increasing moisture advection
and modest WAA may support an increased risk of showers and a
few thunderstorms late tonight along the coast. Muggy conditions
return overnight with southerly flow allowing for dewpoints to
creep back into the upper 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows 65-70
deg.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM Thu...A large cut-off low pressure system moving
through central US will continue to push ENE, with attendant
cold front impacting the area Friday into Saturday. Strong Srly
flow brings warm, moist air into the region, allowing for temps
to remain seasonable in the low/mid 80s with dew points climbing
into the 70s. Good moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico will
help inc deep layer moisture and bring a wide swath of PWAT
values up to 1.5-1.9" nearing our climo max ahead of the front,
which will be conducive for heavy rainfall amounts of 1-2" per
hour. Additionally, the slow-moving nature of the front will
allow for potential training and the concern for localized flash
flooding. WPC currently has the coastal plain outlooked in a
Slight Excessive Rainfall Outlook, with the rest of the FA under
a Marginal. Severe weather is also a concern for Fri afternoon
and Friday night. Though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor,
MU CAPE values will peak 15-2000 J/kg, and combine with 30-40
kt of bulk shear. This should be enough to support organized
convection, with mix of multicells and supercells possible. SPC
continues to outlook areas west of Hwy 17 in a Slight Risk for
severe weather, with a Marginal Risk east of Hwy 17...with
potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated
tornado.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM Thu...Cold front will continue to impact the area
Friday night and Saturday, bringing another round of rain and
thunderstorms. High pressure builds in for the latter half of
Memorial Day Weekend.
Fri night through Sat...A large cut-off low pressure system
will lift into the Mid-Atlantic Friday night, pushing a cold
front into the area Friday night and Saturday. Severe threat and
localized flood threat will continue for the first part of
Friday night with conditions improving late Friday night and Sat
morning with deep moisture moving off the coast.
Sun Through Wed...Drier conditions expected Sun with high
pressure and upper level ridging beginning to build into the
region. A stacked high will linger across much of the Eastern US
to start off the week, bringing mostly dry conditions through
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 745 PM Thu...Skies are now almost entirely clear across
TAF terminals although lower clouds continue to linger over the
northern Outer Banks near the remnants of the coastal low. VFR
conditions will prevail for the first half of the evening but
are expected to deteriorate with increasing moisture advection
this evening. Guidance has trended somewhat earlier with onset
of MVFR cigs and adjusted these times forward an hour or so.
Potential for IFR is best along and west of I-95 but cannot
completely rule out some lower cigs for PGV/ISO after 06z.
Conditions improve tomorrow although showers will be in the area
during the morning, transitioning to a thunderstorm threat in
the afternoon. A few storms could be strong producing gusty
winds and hail, as well as torrential rainfall. Southerly winds
will gust as high as 25 kt during the afternoon outside of
convective activity.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 335 AM Thu...A cold front will impact the region Friday
night and Saturday, bringing periods of rain and tstorms with
sub-VFR conditions. With greater moisture across the area, late
night and early morning fog will also be possible most days.
Prevailing VFR conditions will return Sunday and Monday as high
pressure builds overhead.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 240 PM Thu...Latest obs show variable winds less than 10
kt with seas 2-4 ft. Weak low pressure off the northern waters
will continue to lift north and weaken this evening. This will
allow SE-S flow to develop across the waters, increasing to
10-15 kt by late evening. Seas will remain 2-4 ft through
tonight. Gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold front
Friday, with southerly winds increasing to 15-25 kt Fri
afternoon and evening. Issued SCA for all coastal waters and
sounds beginning Fri afternoon. Seas 2-4 ft early Fri will build
to 4-6 ft by late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms with
gusty winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain will be
possible Fri afternoon into Friday night.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 240 PM Thu...S to SWrly winds gusting to 25-30 kts, seas
4-7 ft, and a chance for rain and thunderstorms Friday night
into early Sat. Winds and seas gradually diminish during the day
Sat as cold front slowly departs offshore. SCA seas will
continue through mid morning and early afternoon across the
southern and central waters. High pressure builds in Sunday and
Monday with Srly winds around 10 kts and seas 2-4 ft.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Friday through Friday
evening for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 7 AM EDT Saturday for
AMZ135-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM EDT Saturday for
AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday
for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/MS
SHORT TERM...CQD/ML
LONG TERM...CQD/ML
AVIATION...MS/ML
MARINE...CQD/ML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1058 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022
Updated for 06z aviation discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected Friday night through
Tuesday. Some severe weather is likely with any thunderstorm
activity we see Saturday night through Tuesday.
- Warm and humid weather expected this weekend through Tuesday.
Temperatures retreat back to a little below normal for the second
half of next week.
Troughing that has been giving us cooler and unsettled weather the
last couple of days will shift off to the east tonight, with a ridge
moving overhead for Friday. This weekend, we`ll see the upper air
pattern become increasingly amplified as a trough digs into the
Rockies and strong ridging builds across eastern NOAM. This will
keep us locked in a zone of active weather between these two
features starting Friday night and lasting through Tuesday night.
Today through Friday... Frontal boundary has checked up over eastern
WI this afternoon as this segment of the front has been displaced
from any sort of forcing, with a northern stream wave now off to the
east of the Great Lakes and a southern stream wave in the form of a
closed h5 low in the mid Mississippi Valley heading into the Ohio
valley. This has meant that there has been very little push to get
the clouds out of eastern MN and western WI, with a narrow band of
fgen in the h85-h7 layer keeping some light rain going from Albert
Lea up toward Eau Claire. Tonight, this clouds will clear out of MN
at the very least and lead to the biggest issue this period, the
potential for fog formation. A surface ridge axis is forecast by 12z
to be aligned from roughly Mankato, up through the Twin Cities and
to Duluth. Along this axis, the HRRR has been very aggressive with
developing dense fog. Given the short nights right now, radiational
fog is tough to achieve, but if we can hold on to the clouds through
sunset, with highs staying in the mid 50s, then a 10 degree drop to
get fog formation will be attainable for tonight. At this point, we
have added a mention of fog to the HWO to account for this threat.
Friday, subsidence from the upper ridge moving overhead will lead to
what will likely end up being one of the nicest weather days we will
see all year, with ample sunshine, light winds, and low humidity. Of
course this run of nice weather will be short lived...
Friday night through Tuesday night... This period looks to be very
active. It won`t be a complete washout by any means, but we will
likely see multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Where those storms end
up will be dependent on where the cold/warm front is on a daily
basis, but given the amplification of the upper ridge to our east,
that boundary will be stuck over the upper MS Valley through the
period. We`ll likely be looking at not only multiple rounds of
thunderstorms, but multiple chances for severe weather with any
activity we see Saturday night through Tuesday.
Our first shot at showers and thunderstorms will come Friday night
into Saturday morning as the LLJ and initial surge of elevated
instability moves in. This is probably the one period where severe
chances are pretty low due to limited amounts of instability.
Chances of storms this period look best from central into northern
MN, though models are pretty notorious for underplaying the amount
of storms you see with this sort of WAA setup.
Behind this initial push of thunderstorms comes a very warm EML that
will basically be with us until this airmass gets pushed out of our
area Tuesday night. This EML will result in very steep mid-level
lapse, but also strong capping that will need some form of forcing
to be overcome. That forcing will come in the form of nightly
enhancements of the LLJ, frontal boundaries, and shortwaves working
through in the southwest flow. For the periods that look to be most
active in terms of just thunderstorms, it`s really hard to pin down
still at this point due model spread, but the period that models
highlight the most for widespread thunderstorms is late Monday
through Monday night. From the severe threat perspective, that will
come down to mesoscale details, but when taking a step back to see
where the best synoptic scale setup for severe weather exists, the
CSU Machine-Learning probabilities really highlight Sunday with the
best synoptic environment for severe weather. NBM 4.1 CWASP shows
severe potential Saturday night through Tuesday, but it`s
Monday/Monday night and Tuesday/Tuesday night that shows the highest
values across the area. Any severe threat Saturday looks to be mainly
hail from elevated storms, while Sunday through Tuesday would bring
your surface based storm threats. The heavy rain and excessive
rainfall threat looks greatest Monday/Monday night and again
Tuesday/Tuesday night with the potential for nearly stationary
forcing this period. At either rate, if you have outdoor plans at all
this weekend, make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings
and know where your nearest safe structure will be.
The good news is by Wednesday, the upper air pattern will flatten
out, which will dry us out and cool us down for the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022
VFR stratus continues to slowly scatter out across western
Wisconsin, with clear skies and calm winds expected overnight. Fog
continues to look less likely overnight, but a few hours of MVFR
mist still looks possible at STC & RNH around sunrise. Mist is also
possible at MSP & MKT, but will does not look to be dense enough to
impact operations. Winds will be calm overnight and gradually
becoming southwesterly by morning with speeds increasing to 5-10 kts
during the day. Winds become southeasterly tomorrow evening and
remain under 10 kts.
KMSP...Patchy mist still looks possible around sunrise but
visibility is unlikely to drop below VFR criteria for any prolonged
period.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind S 10-15G25 kts.
Sun...Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind S 10-15G25 kts.
Mon...Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind S 10-15g25 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...ETA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
724 PM PDT Thu May 26 2022
.UPDATE...So far this evening, convection has been fairly weak,
though there have been thunderstorms across most of the OR
portions of the forecast area including central OR. This is a
result of thick mid and high level clouds layers which have
prevented the atmosphere from heating up to it`s potential this
past afternoon, than if it had been more clear. However, as an
upper trough continues to move into the region tonight, there
could still be a strong to severe storm or two later this evening,
though the potential has decreased. The amount of CAPE, shear and
negative LI`s are still looking favorable for strong to possibly
severe storms, but there is the lack of surface heating. The HREF
ensemble Paintball tool still shows widespread convection well
into late evening.
Thunderstorms will dissipate late evening and overnight, but then
they may re-develop Friday afternoon. The main difference is that
there will be a lack of instability on Friday compared to today.
However, the HREF ensemble Paintball tool is still showing almost
as much convection Friday afternoon and evening as was predicted
today. Doubt any storms on Friday afternoon/evening will be
severe, but there could be a storm or two that could be strong
enough for significant weather statements.
Another, stronger, upper trough will move into the region on
Saturday and it will form a closed upper low as it moves inland
into the PacNW. This system could bring an isolated thunderstorms
in the afternoon, but the main concern with this system will be a
lengthy period of significant rainfall. Storm total QPF amounts
beginning this evening could top 2.5 inches over the eastern
mountains, and over an inch in the Blue Mountain Foothills by
Monday morning. This amount of rain will not fall all at once, but
will be spread over a three day period. Still, there could be
some hydrology concerns, with rises on rivers, streams and creeks
in the CWA. There is an EFI index of .8 to .9 for unusually high
QPF amounts on Sunday. Will need to address this issue more as
the situation evolves.
Temperatures will become very cool this weekend with temperatures
becoming much below normal, especially on Sunday. Maximum
temperatures are not expected reach any higher than the mid 50s
to lower 60s in the lower elevations on Sunday. It will also be
breezy to windy over much of the forecast area on Sunday, but
especially over the eastern Columbia Gorge, north central OR, and
the western portions of the OR Lower Columbia Basin. 88
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFs...There may be brief periods of MVFR
conditions this evening due to reduced visibility and CIGs with
showers and thunderstorms this evening, especially at KRDM, KBDN,
KPDT and KALW. The other terminals will have VFR conditions
prevailing through the next 24 hours. These conditions will
improve overnight, but then may deteriorate again Friday afternoon
and evening with more showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be
mostly light under 10 kts, but will increase to 10-20 kts with
higher gusts near showers and thunderstorms this evening. Then
winds will decrease late tonight, and then increase again from
10-20 kts by 18Z Friday. 88
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM PDT Thu May 26 2022/
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night... An active weather
pattern will ensue through the near term with a series of
shortwave troughs set to impact the region. The first such wave
will lift northeast across Washington and Oregon through tonight,
bringing scattered strong to severe storms. The next will follow
close on its heels Saturday into Sunday, with a continued wet and
occasionally stormy pattern.
For the remainder of today into tonight...conditions are still
coming together to support a few strong to severe thunderstorms
between now and 9 pm. Recent visible satellite imagery shows an
expansive area of cloud cover, which has likely lead to some
inhibition limiting convective initiation. However, a few pockets
of more intense heating have allowed for convective initiation
across far southern/southeastern Oregon. As a powerful upper jet
streak and associated cold front sweep eastward, expect rather
quick development of showers and thunderstorms later this
afternoon, beginning to the east of the Cascades in central
Oregon, then building north and east through tonight.
The latest RAP mesoanalysis depicts a rather marginal environment
for severe thunderstorms with very modest instability confined
primarily to the northeast mountains of Oregon and southeast
Washington. This area is likely to build and expand somewhat
between now and initiation time, especially as slightly cooler air
aloft starts to fill into the region. Wind shear, on the other
hand, is quite supportive of storm organization, so if a decent
storm can tap into the instability that exists, at least one or
two severe storms can occur. Most recent hi-res ensembles (HREF)
continue to depict this, thought it does seem as though the number
of storms developing at once may be a limiting factor to a more
substantial severe event. In any case, large hail, damaging winds,
and heavy rains will accompany the strongest storms. The
potential for training storms, most notably over the mountains,
may promote a localized flood risk. Activity should gradually wane
in intensity after sunset, as the boundary layer stabilizes and
the main forcing shifts eastward into Idaho.
A brief respite in precipitation will occur overnight tonight,
but with abundant moisture, the presence of a remnant frontal
boundary, and weak upper forcing, showers and isolated storms look
to pop rather early on Friday afternoon. The presence of the
washed out front oriented nearly parallel to the upper flow could
result in a training scenario, where areas receive multiple rounds
of moderate rainfall. This issue will be further compounded into
the weekend as a potent wave drops southward into the region,
resulting in a return of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
and evening. The ECMWF EFI depicts QPF values of 0.8 to 0.9 on
Saturday, which is consistent with an unusually wet period for
late May. The repeat hits of rainfall over the same areas will
result in runoff and rises on areas streams, creeks and rivers.
Several rivers along the east slopes of the Cascades and in the
northeast mountains will rise to bankfull over the weekend and
into early next week. Additional rainfall could result in some
rivers going into minor flood stage.
Rising rivers will be especially hazardous given the upcoming
holiday weekend, when many people are recreating around bodies of
water, which will be running fast and cold. Be sure to protect
yourself from the risk of hypothermia and drowning and keep your
eyes on family members and pets if you happen to have plans near
water this weekend.
In other news, it`s also going to be much cooler this weekend
with highs some 10 to 15 degrees below normals. Widespread highs
in the 50s to mid 60s can be expected on Saturday as compared to
the 70s and 80s today. EFI values for maximum and minimum
temperature also depict this between -0.6 and 0.9 over the
weekend. Austin/79
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
An unsettled pattern will continue over the first part of the
long term as a trough remains over the area followed by a quieter
dry period Wednesday and Thursday. The Extreme Forecast Index
(EFI) highlights winds on Sunday afternoon in the 97th percentile
and unusually cold temperatures Sunday and Sunday night but after
that, no unusual events are noted. Cluster analysis shows that the
main variance in the models are primarily in the eastern US and
model agreement in our area is fairly good. Model spread in the
ensembles are about normal though each model has periods when the
deterministic runs are outliers within their ensembles. Overall
forecast confidence is normal.
Sunday will see a trough over the Pacific Northwest with one
closed low offshore and another over Idaho. By Sunday night, the
low in Idaho will have moved to the eastern part of that state
while the offshore low will have moved ashore and be weakening
rapidly. Sunday will see showers across the area tapering off in
much of the area during the evening but continuing in the eastern
mountains through the night. Most of the lower elevations will see
a tenth of an inch or less though the Blue Mountain Foothills
could get a quarter to a half of an inch and the mountains up to
an inch. Temperatures Sunday will be 10-15 degrees below normal
with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s and in the 40s and lower 50s
in the mountains. Winds will also be breezy to windy with much of
the area seeing 15 to 25 mph winds in the afternoon. Lows Sunday
night will be mainly in the 40s with 30s in the mountains. Do not
expect freezing temperatures except in the higher mountains and
south of Sunriver.
On Monday the trough axis will have pushed into eastern Idaho and
Utah while a weak low will be sliding down the backside of the
trough through our area. The mountains will have another chance of
rain while the lower elevations aside from the Blue Mountain
Foothills will be dry. Rain amounts will be much lighter and
generally no more than a tenth of an inch. Temperatures will be
5-7 degrees warmer than Sunday. Tuesday will see the trough
continue moving slowly east and a ridge will be approaching
offshore. Aside from a slight chance of few light rain showers in
the Washington Cascades and eastern mountains, it will be dry.
Temperatures will be approaching normal with highs in the upper
60s and 70s with mid 50s to mid 60s in the mountains. Tuesday
night through Thursday morning will be dry with the ridge
controlling the weather. Wednesday will have highs in the mid 70s
to lower 80s with mid 60s to lower 70s in the mountains. By
Thursday afternoon, models have the trough departing with a system
approaching the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF have rain over the
area by Thursday afternoon, so have a slight chance of rain over
most of the area in the late afternoon and evening. Temperatures
Thursday will be a few degrees cooler than Wednesday. Perry/83
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 52 66 46 63 / 60 60 40 50
ALW 55 70 49 65 / 80 50 30 40
PSC 58 73 52 69 / 40 20 10 30
YKM 51 70 45 64 / 20 10 0 40
HRI 54 70 49 67 / 50 40 20 50
ELN 49 65 44 62 / 50 20 10 40
RDM 47 63 43 62 / 30 40 30 80
LGD 50 65 45 59 / 70 70 60 70
GCD 47 67 45 62 / 70 50 60 80
DLS 55 68 51 63 / 50 40 30 80
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....83
AVIATION...88
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
852 PM PDT Thu May 26 2022
Updated Aviation Section
.SYNOPSIS...Friday looks to be cooler and showery, before a vigorous
low pressure system shifts across the region on Saturday and brings
widespread rain and locally breezy south winds. Snow levels will
lower Sunday morning to around pass level with showers continuing. A
warming and drying trend will begin early next week as an upper level
shortwave ridge gradually shifts inland.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Thursday evening through Saturday night...The short
term forecast has been adjusted this evening to include a 15% chance
of thunder to the east of I-5, mainly for the far eastern Willamette
Valley into the Cascade foothills. The latest suite of hi-res model
guidance is now showing increasing elevated instability, with MUCAPE
values likely rising to around 500 J/kg by 5 or 6 PM PDT. The NAM
Nest and the HRRR are both simulating at least a few thunderstorms
developing in the aforementioned area between 5-6 PM, before shifting
eastward across the Cascades between 6-8 PM. Excess cloud cover today
initially suggested the thunderstorm potential is near zero, but this
does not matter if the instability aloft materializes like the hi-res
models are now showing. This does seem like a plausible outcome given
the falling 500 mb heights this evening along with an incoming weak
shortwave trough, which should also help enhance forcing for ascent.
Once showers and/or thunderstorms push east of the Cascade crest
after 8 PM this evening, there should be a break from precipitation
across most of northwest OR and southwest WA until a weak cold front
pushes inland after midnight tonight and brings a renewed chance for
light showers.
Post-frontal showers and then expected to continue into tomorrow,
especially over the Cascades. Conditions will deteriorate late Friday
night into Saturday as a fairly impressive low pressure system for
this time of year moves inland. Models have been quite consistent
with the track and timing of this low for the past 24 hours,
suggesting the center of the low will make landfall somewhere between
Newport and Seaside, sometime between 3-6 PM PDT. This low will bring
breezy south winds to the south of Newport and Salem, with weaker
winds to the north. This is where wind gusts should peak at around
20-30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph or so along the coast. The higher
terrain of the central Coast Range may also see gusts around 40-45
mph, mainly along exposed peaks and ridges. It is worth mentioning
that the wind field is favorable for funnel clouds or a tornado to
the south of Salem Saturday afternoon, but instability looks to be
severely lacking. Without the instability, it will be difficult for
the low-level helicity to be realized and for updrafts that are
strong enough to tilt and stretch any horizontal vorticity into the
vertical. For this reason, will downplay the tornado threat on
Saturday but maintain a non-zero chance. If you are anywhere in the
central and southern Willamette Valley on Saturday and notice breaks
of sun occurring, then you should be more alert for the potential
tornado threat. If no sun breaks occur (which is what the vast
majority of model guidance is suggesting will be the case), then the
tornado threat will drop to near zero.
The main impact from this low pressure system will be the widespread
rain, which looks to be moderate to heavy at times through the day on
Saturday given the impressive Q-vector convergence that looks to
materialize over the region (which implies strong synoptic-scale
lift). In addition, strong frontogenesis is also evident (which
implies strong mesoscale lift in addition to the strong
synoptic-scale lift). PWAT values look to be around 1 inch, which is
also fairly impressive for this time of year. Widespread stratiform
rain should transition to showers behind the low Saturday night, with
showers continuing into Sunday. Total rain amounts this weekend, snow
levels, and expected impacts are discussed below in the long term
discussion. -TK
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday night...Those with outdoor
plans this upcoming holiday weekend will need to be prepared for wet,
cool, and breezy conditions. This will be especially true Saturday
morning through Saturday night, as this is when rain may be heavy at
times. Cool and wet conditions will continue behind the low on
Sunday, but at least the precipitation will be more showery by then
with breaks expected in between showers. Models and their ensembles
have been fairly consistent with forecast rain amounts this weekend.
The GEFS ensemble mean for QPF is still showing around 1 inch of rain
this weekend over the interior lowlands, with amounts closer to 1.5
inches along the coast. 2-3 inches of rain is expected over the
higher terrain of the Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and Cascades. While
flooding is not expected, this is a good amount of rain for late May.
Temperatures will also be around 10 degrees below normal this
weekend, with high temperatures only in the mid to upper 50s to
around 60 at best. Snow levels will also be lowering Saturday night
into Sunday morning, likely falling below pass level by Sunday
morning. By Sunday night, the Cascade passes should have around 1-3
inches of new snow. Amounts as high as 6-12 inches are possible for
the high Cascades above 5000 feet. While this isn`t very much snow at
pass level, it is still enough to result in winter driving
conditions. Those traveling over the Cascade passes on Sunday should
be prepared for snow-covered roads and reduced visibilities.
A warming and drying trend will begin early next week as a shortwave
ridge over the eastern Pacific slowly moves eastward over the Pacific
Northwest. Monday will feature decreasing showers, and high pressure
should be strong enough on Tuesday and Wednesday for dry weather
across the entire forecast area. This is also when temperatures will
become much warmer. The NBM is suggesting high temperatures in the
low to mid 70s by Tuesday, with highs around 80 on Wednesday. -TK
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFs: At 0330Z VFR conditions were noted over a
vast majority of the forecast area. The main exception was along
the coast between KONP and K6S2 where IFR conditions developed.
The area of showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed
earlier this evening between the east slopes of the Oregon Coast
Range and the lower slopes of the Cascade foothills was moving to
the northeast at around 35 kt. At 0330Z the remnant showers were
focused over the south Washington Cascades. However, doppler radar
indicated another line of light precipitation moving onshore
between KTMK and KONP.
Coastal areas will become predominant MVFR/IFR overnight through
early Friday morning. Higher-resolution models suggest a line of
showers will move across the coastal areas through 07Z Friday.
Expect improvement to VFR by 15Z Friday. However, areas of MVFR
are likely to return Friday afternoon as another weak disturbance
moves across the area. Inland areas to remain primarily VFR
through Friday evening. Model guidance indicates a reasonably high
probability (50-70 percent) of MVFR developing along the Cascade
foothills between 07Z and 09Z and back-building into the east
portion of the Willamette Valley north into western Clark County
in southwest Washington. Also, models show a southwest marine
surge overnight. This may result in MVFR cigs pushing through the
Coast Range gaps into the southwest portion of the Willamette
Valley, including KEUG.
For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go
online to: https://weather.gov/zse
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions at the terminal as of 04Z.
The area of heavier showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms
that moved through the vicinity earlier this evening was located
over the south Washington Cascades. VFR to prevail through most of
the 06Z TAF period. However, cigs are expected to lower to around
040 late tonight. There is about a 30 percent chance of MVFR cigs
between 10Z and 15Z Friday. This chance increases to nearly 60
percent at KTTD and into the west Gorge. Weishaar
&&
.MARINE...No changes to marine forecast. An approaching Pacific
frontal system will shift winds southerly this evening producing
marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions across parts of
PZZ250/270. Brief gusts up to 25 kt are possible overnight
Thursday and into Friday morning. Seas will likely build into the
8-10 ft range within these stronger winds, especially for areas
north of Tillamook.
Winds will remain out of the southwest throughout the day Friday as
a second, more robust low makes its way across the Pacific towards
the coastal waters. Models have come into good agreement that the
low will deepen up until the coastline. This will bring strong
impactful winds across the waters during the holiday weekend. Most
models show the low coming ashore around Depoe Bay Saturday
afternoon. The S-SW sector of the low will contain the strongest
winds which will put PZZ255/275 easily into Gale Force wind criteria.
A Gale Watch has been issued for these zones late Friday night
through Saturday evening. It is very likely that the Watch will be
upgraded to a Warning but the timing may be altered and possibly
include the northern zones if the track of the low shifts north.
Ensemble output from long range models are showing maximum 6 hour
wind gusts up to 50 kt for a brief period Saturday afternoon at
Buoy 50. Locally elevated seas within these strong winds could
build into the mid teens.
Small craft conditions will remain across the waters in Sunday.
Mariners are highly encouraged to keep an eye on the forecast
approaching the holiday weekend. Winds and seas will diminish below
advisory criteria by late Sunday as high pressure builds over the NE
Pacific. -BrianaMuhlestein
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for coastal waters
from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday for
coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR
out 60 nm.
Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening for
coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60
nm.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
208 PM PDT Thu May 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
With low pressure moving in off the Pacific, unsettled weather is
expected through the upcoming holiday weekend. Widespread breezy
to windy conditions will occur through Saturday with temperatures
cooling to below normal over the weekend. Scattered showers are
forecast Saturday and Sunday, and even light snow may fall at
times in the Sierra this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Anyone who`s lived here long enough knows that making outdoor
plans for Memorial Day weekend can be a hit or miss proposition.
We will probably add this year as a datapoint in the miss column,
though the upcoming weekend won`t be a total freeze or washout
like in some past years. If you have camping or outdoor plans,
definitely take some wet and cold weather gear and be prepared for
winds.
* Wind: Today`s big message is going to be yet another multi-day
period of windy conditions. Today and tomorrow`s are more
generic breezy winds driven mainly by low level pressure and
thermal gradients, ~30-40 MPH gust type stuff based on latest
HREF and NBM numbers. Still will be an issue for lake recreation
with choppy waters. Saturday is where things get spicy as strong
upper wave helps increase flow aloft yielding more widespread
40-50 MPH gusts. ECMWF EFI really showing potential for strong
winds Saturday especially from I-80 north - good potential for
wind advisories eventually. Not anticipating a high/damaging-
wind event as NBM probabilities of 60+ MPH gusts are rather low
in most areas except the usual wind prone spots along Hwy 395
and of course on the ridges. Winds, while remaining gusty,
start to relax some Sunday onward.
* Thunderstorms Today: A few t-storms are likely through early
evening today, mainly near and east of Hwy 95. This is where the
airmass can get hot enough to destabilize but also where wind
shear isn`t too strong to rip apart towering Cu. The main
concern here are strong outflow winds above 60 MPH and blowing
dust, which are showing up in several of the convective
resolving models.
* Rain/Snow Showers This Weekend: Fast forward to Saturday
afternoon, where forcing for ascent ahead of a pronounced upper
trough overspreads the area. This should help generate showers
with a couple t-storms possible. Scattered showers continue into
Sat night and with cold air moving in, we`ll likely start seeing
some snow in mountain areas especially from Tahoe north up into
the Warners. NBM snowfall probability guidance remains rather
slim on amounts, but even less than an inch will catch many off-
guard. Additional rain/snow showers are possible Sunday into
Monday, but confidence in coverage and amounts is less. A lot of
this depends on position of upper low (instability) and/or waves
rotating around it (forcing for ascent). That being said, NBM
does show non-trivial 15-30% probabilities for 0.1 to 1" of
snowfall in the Sierra and Warners Sunday-Monday timeframe.
* Cold Temps: Obviously temperatures will drop to below normal
levels this weekend which will be a big change to plan for. But
I wanted to specifically address the odds of seeing frost/freeze
conditions since many gardens are well underway. My budding
roses and fruit trees did not fare well during the freezes back
in early May. Right now it looks like Monday and Tuesday
mornings are the main ones to watch. Urban areas look to remain
well above freezing, but typical low elevation cold spots such
as Minden, Lovelock, and perhaps even Reno North Valleys have at
least a 50/50 chance of hitting freezing per the NBM.
-Chris
&&
.AVIATION...
Low pressure deepening over eastern Nevada combined with a
passing weak shortwave aloft will help generate breezy W/SW winds
today, with more on Friday and again Saturday. Expect aviation
weather impacts such as wind shear and increased turbulence
through the weekend.
For the remainder of today and Friday, gusts look to be on the
order of 25-35 knots. Then on Saturday, with the approach of a
more robust upper low and frontal zone over the region, more
widespread strong winds are looking likely with gusts 30-40 knots
common. Rides will definitely be rougher Saturday. Can`t rule out
higher gusts, with 30-40% chances of 40-50 knots at most
airfields including RNO, TVL, and MMH.
A few fast moving showers or t-storms remain possible mainly near
and east of HTH-NFL-LOL-WMC through early evening today. HRRR and
HREF members all showing this. While not strong storms, they will
produce lightning and strong outflow winds to 50 knots with
blowing dust visibility restrictions possible.
-Chris
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ001>004.
Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday NVZ001>004.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ071>073.
Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday CAZ071>073.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
842 PM PDT Thu May 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will decrease through the weekend, finally
dropping below seasonal averages Sunday afternoon. The weather
system that is responsible for the drop in temperatures will also
bring gusty southwest winds to the region and conditions conducive
with high fire danger. Temperatures will remain below-average
through early next week before heat returns.
&&
.UPDATE...Satellite imagery picked up on two wildfire signatures
near the southern end of our forecast area. Southerly winds are
carrying smoke plumes from the Lost Lake wildfire southwest of
Parker AZ and the Elk Fire in Yucca Valley CA to the northeast.
The 00z HRRR Smoke product has a smoke plume over Lake Havasu
through about 10 pm when winds are forecast to decrease. Gusty
conditions across the region this evening are expected to
decrease overnight. A batch of high clouds over northern Clark
County are moving north into Lincoln County while a second batch
of mid and high clouds over the western forecast area are
forecast to move east overnight. The Red Flag Warning for Southern
Nevada and Northwest Arizona expired at 8 pm this evening but
another warning will go into effect again at noon Friday as winds
pick back up.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM PDT Thu May 26 2022...
.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.
Today is the hottest day of the forecast period, with Las Vegas
sitting at 101F at 2 PM PDT this afternoon. The ridge associated
with these above-average temperatures will shift eastward today,
making way for yet another weekend weather system that will bring
gusty winds and cool down the region by about 5-7 degrees each day.
[Weekend Recreation] In town, school has let out for the summer, and
friends and families gear up for Memorial Day Weekend activities.
People planning to engage in outdoor recreation this weekend are
encouraged to keep a close eye on the forecast and follow any and
all fire restrictions. Vegetation across the southern Great Basin
and Mojave Deserts is very dry, making it prone to fire ignition,
especially when aligned with dry air and gusty winds. The incoming
weather system will bring gusty northwest winds to the southern
Great Basin and gusty southwest winds elsewhere each afternoon this
weekend. As such, recreation involving sparks or flames is
discouraged, but if done, always ensure there is plenty of water
nearby in the event of accidental fire starts. Additionally, gusty
winds will result in increased wave activity on area lakes. Those
operating small craft must exercise additional caution due to wave
heights between 1 and 2 feet expected on Lake Mead and Lake Mohave
through the weekend.
[Fire Danger] High resolution model data indicated higher winds this
afternoon than originally forecast, so I hoisted a Red Flag Warning
from 12 PM to 8 PM this evening for southern Nevada and northwestern
Arizona. Heights will continue to fall this weekend, with increasing
winds each afternoon. As such, I issued Red Flag Warnings for Friday
and Saturday afternoons as well for the same zones - southern Nevada
and northwestern Arizona. However, on Saturday, as this system moves
inland, GEFS IVT shows a moisture flux across the Mojave Desert on
Saturday. Though this flux isn`t grand enough to result in any
precipitation, it will work to increase afternoon relative
humidities in the higher elevations of Clark County (Spring
Mountains and Sheep Range) and southeastern California. For this
reason, these zones have been excluded from the Red Flag Warning on
Saturday.
[Wind] Forecast winds have increased across the western Mojave
Desert on Saturday, with forecast westerly winds between 45 and 55
mph in western San Bernardino County. I issued a Wind Advisory for
Zone 523 as a result from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday. As we get
closer to the event, it is possible that additional zones are added
to this Wind Advisory along the Mojave Desert stretch from San
Bernardino to the Arizona Strip, but confidence at this time of
widespread gusts in these areas above 40 mph remains low-to-moderate.
[Temperatures] As forecast high temperatures drop each afternoon, so
does HeatRisk. However, for those getting their Memorial Day Weekend
activities started early, it is important to note that "Moderate"
HeatRisk remains for the lower elevations through Friday afternoon.
Cities in these aforementioned `lower elevations` include Las Vegas,
Pahrump, Death Valley, Mesquite, Lake Havasu City, and Littlefield.
Temperatures will drop to just a few degrees above-average on
Saturday, then dropping to 4-6 degrees below-average on Sunday,
bottoming out on Memorial Day with over 10 degrees below seasonal
averages.
.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.
Beyond Monday, temperatures are expected to rebound. However, the
speed at which we see temperature warm back up will be heavily
dependent on how long the trough lingers over the region. Should the
trough linger over the Great Basin/Intermountain West longer,
temperatures will be slower to recover.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...South-southeast winds early this
afternoon with gusts 20-25 knots. The wind will become more
southerly later in the day with gusts around 25 knots continuing
through late this evening. For Friday, south to southwest winds with
gusts of 20-25 kts primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.
FEW-SCT high clouds can be expected through the period.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy south or southwesterly winds are expected this
afternoon, continuing through this evening with gusts 20-30 knots
likely. Similar wind conditions are expected on Friday. FEW-SCT high
clouds can be expected through the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Increased winds coupled with dry air and critical
fuels will result in high fire danger each afternoon this weekend
for southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. Winds will trend from
the northwest across the southern Great Basin, and from the
southwest in far southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. A meager
moisture flux on Saturday will help keep the higher elevations
between 25 and 35 percent in the afternoon, but will do little to
mitigate fire concerns in the valleys. Red Flag Warnings have been
hoisted for each afternoon, today through Saturday, with additional
warnings possible on Sunday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Salmen
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Varian
LONG TERM...Stessman
AVIATION...Czyzyk
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