Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/25/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
941 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
.DISCUSSION...Updated the forecast for Severe Thunderstorm Watch
for the western 4 counties of the Brush Country. Severe storm
currently moving southeast along the Rio Grande toward Laredo.
Additional storms forming over the Hill Country are expected to
move southeast toward the region overnight. SPC updated the risk
of severe storms to Slight to cover most of the forecast area
tonight. Updated to include wording of severe storms in forecast.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 642 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022/
AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...
VFR conditions will prevail until a cold front comes through the
region tonight. Latest CAM guidance has been trending to an
earlier arrival time with the front reaching the northern counties
including VCT/COT 07-08Z then surging southward into CRP/ALI/CRP
around 09-10Z. A line/cluster of strong to severe showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the front and continue in wake
through the mid-morning around 15Z. Expect the strongest of storms
along and just behind the front. Damaging winds is the primary
threat. Winds will shift to the northeast with this line of storms
then shift more N to NW and weaken to around 10 knots by the
afternoon. MVFR ceilings will develop in advance of the front,
prevailing through the majority of the TAF period. Amendments will
be likely if storms develop ahead of the front, keeping an eye on
a cluster just west of Maverick County moving southeast currently.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
This morning`s convective activity continues to nudge east across
the Western Gulf of Mexico. A rather worked over atmosphere was left
in it`s wake. With that said, instability is back on the rise with
CAPE values now nearing 1500 J/kg. As we head into the overnight
hours, another shortwave, which can be seen in water vapor imagery,
will eject across the state as a cold front is sent our way. We will
continue to destabilize through the evening hours with CAPE values
likely topping 2500 J/kg along with mid level lapse rates close to
8C/km. Meanwhile, moisture will pool back across the Coastal Plains
with PWATs nearing 1.8". This will open the door for another MCS to
move across the Victoria Crossroads late tonight and moving offshore
by mid to late morning. Although the CAMS did not perform too well
with yesterday`s activity, there seems to be pretty good agreement
with the timing tonight. To add confidence, the HRRR Neural Network
has our highest probabilities of any severe hazards during the 10-
14Z timeframe Wednesday morning. Wind looks to be our greatest
concern, especially if any bowing segments sweep through the region.
Convection looks to linger offshore through the afternoon before
drier air moves in as ridging works in aloft.
Lowered highs for tomorrow as a rare late May northerly wind
develops and cloud coverage lingers behind the front. Currently have
high temps in the low to mid 80s. However, if the drier air arrives
earlier than expected, we could see temps warm a bit more through
the day.
LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
High pressure will build into the longer term period bringing much
quieter weather to the region. Mid and upper level ridging will
shift across the area through the latter part of the week with
winds shifting back around to the southeast by Wednesday.
Temperatures Friday should still be near normal before pushing
back above normal for the weekend. A weak mid level disturbance
could bring some moisture back to the region by early next week
with some slight chance PoPs. Breezy conditions will return for
the weekend and especially into early next week.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist through early Wednesday
afternoon as southeasterly winds of 20-25 knots continue. Another
round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible
late tonight into the mid morning hours tomorrow as a front moves
towards the coast. Activity will wane during the afternoon hours as
drier air works into the region. A moderate north-northeasterly wind
will develop in the wake of the front Wednesday evening. High
pressure builds through the late part of the week with winds
subsiding to light to moderate levels Thursday. Onshore flow will
return by Friday with a gradual increase in wind speeds into the
weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 73 83 67 88 71 / 60 80 30 0 0
Victoria 69 81 62 90 66 / 80 80 20 0 0
Laredo 73 86 69 95 74 / 40 50 10 0 0
Alice 71 85 66 94 68 / 60 70 20 0 0
Rockport 74 84 69 87 74 / 70 80 30 0 0
Cotulla 69 86 65 94 71 / 70 60 0 0 0
Kingsville 72 85 66 93 70 / 50 80 20 0 0
Navy Corpus 75 84 73 87 76 / 60 80 40 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT Wednesday For the following
zones: Baffin Bay and Upper Laguna Madre...Coastal waters
from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters
from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...
Copano, Aransas, and Redfish Bays...Corpus Christi and
Nueces Bays...San Antonio, Mesquite, and Espiritu Santo
Bays...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
637 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 341 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
Key Messages:
-- Chilly, gloomy, and rainy tonight
Chilly, gloomy, and rainy will be the topic of discussion today
through the early morning on Thursday. The expansive area of
precipitation covering much of the Midwest has now pushed into our
CWA. The start time for the precipitation lagged a few hours this
morning due to the dry air at the surface. The OMA 12Z observed
sounding and the HRRR and RAP model soundings indicated that the
vertical motion and precipitation would overcome the dry air near
the surface around 11am to 12pm for our southern portions which was
on target for what occurred. The precipitation will continue to
spread across the forecast area throughout the late afternoon as
large scale forcing for ascent increases ahead of an approaching
upper level low. The NAM and GFS 300K isentropic surface continue to
indicate moisture advection is expected to lift through the state
tonight before exiting to the north and east by midday Wednesday.
This allows for widespread precipitation to continue into early
Wednesday. The storm total rainfall across the southeastern area is
expected to amount 0.75" to 1" with areas in western and central
portions of the CWA seeing the highest QPF amounts of 1.30" to
1.75". The GEFS and EC ensemble probabilities continue to suggest
some accumulations in excess of 2" possible south central or
southwest. These areas with higher amounts are in response to the QG
convergence being maximized with strongest omega residing over the
west. Winds are beginning to increase this afternoon as the surface
pressure gradient tightens between the approaching low and Great
Lakes high. Winds will increase into the overnight hours with gusts
of 25 to 35 mph possible. Given that the rain is expected to fall
over a 24-hr period, flash flooding is not anticipated and
convection will be limited. Some areas in far southern Iowa near the
IA/MO border could hear a few rumbles of thunder due to the elevated
instability that will creep into that area overnight. Overnight lows
will remain brisk in the upper 40s for northern portions and in the
low to mid 50s in southern potions.
&&
.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Tuesday/
Issued at 341 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
Key Messages:
-- Small chance of strong/perhaps severe storms southeastern Iowa
Wednesday afternoon
-- Turning drier, warmer Friday into this weekend
-- Storm chances Sunday and Memorial Day
Details: Rain will be common over many parts of the state early
Wednesday morning with the upper level closed low over western
Oklahoma and Kansas with a surface low over eastern Kansas that
will track northeastward toward southeastern Iowa by late in the
day. However, the strongest push of QG convergence and theta-e
advection will be lifting northeastward in the morning hours as
the low approaches. Lingering appreciable QG convergence along
with deformation will remain over northwestern half of the state
promoting spotty showers.
As previous discussion noted and morning guidance remains showing,
it looks like southeastern Iowa including the southeastern portion
of our forecast area will be in the warm sector Wednesday afternoon.
The 12z HREF shows thinning of the cloud deck in the low and mid-
levels towards Ottumwa and this sunshine may give a boost to
instability. Forecast sounding at OTM show a saturated profile and
skinny CAPE profile in the low to mid-levels (below 600mb or so in
the 15z RAP, perhaps a little past 500mb in 18z HRRR) that would be
surface based. The peak of the instability will be a few hour window
starting around mid-afternoon (4pm or so) til early evening (8pm or
so) when the low pressure will move northeast of the area and sweep
the warm sector out of the forecast area. The line of storms in the
12z and 18z guidance doesn`t look to reach our forecast area til
near 5pm. Deep layer in the 0-6km layer is around 30 to 35 knots
suggesting all modes of severe possible. However, weak mid-level
lapse rates and saturated profile should limit the hail and wind
potential. Wind profile and hodographs have not looked overly
impressive with southerly flow that becomes south-southwesterly or
southwesterly as the line of storms arrives. This has limited storm
relative helicity. However, 18z HRRR shows much better backed flow
resulting in appreciable low level helicity. In contrast, the 15z
RAP forecast soundings at Centerville and Ottumwa show minimal low
level helicity as the hodograph is nearly linear. That said, the 0-
3km shear vector looks to be favorably oriented to the line of
storms, though any QLCS tornadoes may be localized as the magnitude
will be near or below 30 knots. The more likely area looks to be
just east of Ottumwa/Bloomfield line and seems supportive of the
eastward push of the SPC day 2 outlook compared to the midnight
issuance.
The persistence of the rainfall will be waning into Thursday ending
from west to east as QG convergence finally wanes. As the closed
low/trough axis moves east of the forecast area, a ridge axis will
push into the region by Saturday morning. This will allow for
temperatures to be near or a little above normal by Friday and
likely above normal through the Memorial Day weekend. Initial
guidance from the NBM may be too low biased by the recent cool
conditions may need to adjust values a few degrees upward in the
coming days. The caveat to the above normal temperatures will be
as the ridge axis is flattened by a broad longwave trough pushing
southward over the western US, shortwave troughs will be ejected
through and north of the state with this being the higher location
for showers and storms. This may keep conditions closer to normal
if clouds and/or storms limit insolation. The 12z GFS pulls some
storms through Friday night into Saturday morning and again
Saturday night while the ECMWF remains largely north. However, the
setup of Iowa being in the warm sector with a boundary/warm front
to the north or over parts of northern Iowa could offer storm and
severe chances if this sinks farther southward. This idea is
supported by the 00z Colorado State`s machine learning random
forest outlook, which highlights Iowa on Sunday and more so on
Memorial Day. In addition, 00z CIPS Experimental Analog-Based
Severe Probability Guidance shows 15% probability of severe both
of those days as well.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
Widespread rain showers are expected across Iowa tonight into
Wednesday. Conditions will worsen during the period with ceilings
and visibilities becoming MVFR across much of the state with
localized IFR conditions. Surface winds are expected to be rather
robust from the east overnight and gusty as the pressure gradient
remains tight. Some easing of the winds are expected into
Wednesday afternoon as surface low pressure approaches the state.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ansorge/Viken
LONG TERM...Ansorge
AVIATION...Cogil
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
647 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
Have added Maverick and Kinney counties to the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 269 as strong to severe storms approach from the west. Still
looks on track for one or two rounds of showers and thunderstorms for
much of South Central Texas tonight into early Wednesday with strong
to severe storms likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
Cold front at 2 pm extends from near SJT to SEP is beginning to
generate storm clusters north of it, but the cap appears to be
holding for the area to the south. The pair of MCV`s that deprived
our forecast area much of the rainfall that was advertised yesterday
continues to leave wake subsidence, and even the old faithful
activity is slow to get started. This leaves a poor picture for rain
forecast for tonight to extend into areas west of Hwy 83, but east
of this area, there remains good model agreement on a solid line of
storms forming to the north and sweeping across the eastern 3/4 of
South Central TX from generally 7 PM to 7 AM. An exception over the
western counties is that the dryline near Dryden might generate a
late afternoon or early evening isolated strong storm over Val Verde
County; the latest HRRR runs show that activity to track east and
get absorbed into the complex without any ability to pull the
trailing edge westward. Thus, it is feared much of the Rio Grande
areas will miss out on tonight`s rain, although the sim-reflectivity
of the latest would bring the western edge of activity pretty close
to the border south of DRT.
Storm dynamics/wind shear have escalated the severe potential with
an Enhanced Risk to represent this large storm complex with a
highlight the potential for strong organized downdrafts with the
congealing line. Areas where the line is still coming together from
discrete supercells and areas where the line may kink early tonight
may have a shot to produce a brief tornado or two. Some hail over 1
inch is possible, but we think the primary severe concern for
tonight is the strong winds and rounds of torrential that could dump
1 to 2 inches over a short time. PWat values approaching 2 inches
near the leading edge could lead to a couple pockets of 3 to 4
inches in any of the areas where the line kinks with overlapping
storm cells. Timing of the leading edge looks to be zeroing in on as
early as 7 PM for parts of the Srn Edwards Plateau and Nrn Hill
Country, then probably closer to the 10 PM-1 AM window for the metro
areas. The potential for tornadoes should be mostly confined to the
Enhanced risk areas and maybe as far south as I-10, because large
outflow winds are anticipated on the leading edge once the line
becomes more uniform late tonight. By around 3 AM, the severe threat
should be winding down and certainly for the metro areas; most areas
below I-10/Hwy 90 are only in a Marginal Risk, and the severe threat
should be all wind by that time.
As for the rain threat, it would be hard to imagine a run-off threat
for areas south of I-10/Hwy 90, given our dry soils and what looks
to be a fairly progressive moving squall line. Some of the Convective
Allowing models depict a pair of lines with a trailing line over
western counties filling in areas where the leading edge was more
poorly organized. Thus our concerns for run-off issues might be
mainly the Hill Country were the training is more likely and the
soil depths are shallow.
Cooler temperatures and dry air will make for a pleasant day by
Wednesday afternoon, and Wednesday evening will be even more
pleasant as temps drop quickly into the upper 60s/low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
South-Central Texas will be transitioning to a warmer and drier
pattern once again as troughing moves east on Thursday. With mid-
level WNW flow and little in the way of synoptic forcing mechanisms,
expect the heat to build back in over the CWA by the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will warm to near-normal levels for late May on
Thursday, followed by a steady warming trend into the weekend. By
Saturday, expect widespread lower to middle 90s for the Hill Country
and Coastal Plains, with upper 90s to low 100s generally west of US
281. That continues Sunday into Monday of next week with muggy/humid
mornings, and hot and dry afternoons. Our next potential chance at
rain doesn`t look to arrive until Tuesday of next week as onshore
flow may increase, bringing seabreeze showers or thunderstorms inland
to the Coastal Plains. Will keep things dry for the time being.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
One or perhaps two rounds of SHRA/TSRA will impact the I-35 sites
late this evening into the overnight with SHRA/TSRA in the VCNTY of
KDRT. Wind gusts to 50 KTS and hail to 2 inches are possible with the
strongest TSRA. VFR skies prevail, except periods of brief MVFR/IFR
CIGs/VSBYs and lightning late evening into overnight. S to SE winds
10 to 15 KTs with gusts to 20 KTs this evening shift to be N to NW
with passage of the cold front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 65 79 59 87 / 90 20 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 79 58 87 / 90 20 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 81 59 89 / 90 30 10 0
Burnet Muni Airport 62 79 57 89 / 100 10 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 67 87 64 93 / 40 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 63 78 58 87 / 100 10 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 65 83 59 89 / 70 20 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 64 80 58 88 / 90 20 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 80 61 88 / 90 60 10 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 65 80 61 87 / 90 20 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 67 84 63 91 / 90 40 10 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...04
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
748 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022
--Unsettled through Friday--
Closed upper low to drift slowly east-northeast from the Plains
over the next few days, providing a prolonged period of unsettled
weather with periods/rounds of showers and tstms.
Deep/moist southerly flow ahead of this feature delivers PWATs of
over 1.5 inches on Wednesday, and would expect to see our first
batch of rain showers to be associated with the leading edge of
that moisture gradient. Once that round of rain lifts north in the
afternoon, will have to keep an eye on any convection which
develops in it`s wake.
RAP guidance develops SB Capes of 500-1500 J/KG over the southwest
corner of Lwr MI after 21Z Wed; south and west of a Holland to
Jackson line. With sfc winds still out of the southeast and
strongly veered flow in the lowest 3 KM, there would appear to be
some risk of rotation in any sfc based cells that can develop,
roughly 21Z-03Z.
Low LCL heights are also progged as sfc warm front and higher sfc
dew points arrive late in the day Wed. Risk of a quick spin-up is
very low and conditional, but nevertheless one that should not be
overlooked. That threat, as well as overall coverage of
showers/storms, should diminish after 03Z as sfc based instability
wanes and warm front lifts north of the area.
Renewed threat and increased coverage of showers/storms expected
for Thursday as the next impulse lifts northeast from the upper
low/trough toward Lwr MI. Amount of sfc instability will obviously hinge
on extent of sunshine/heating that we see, but a severe wx risk
could develop Thursday as well during the afternoon/evening,
especially east of Hwy 131.
While a risk of showers will continue on Friday with the upper
low still nearby, the severe weather risk looks lower since we`ll
be in the cooler/more stable north-northeast low level flow
behind the cold front which sags through on Thursday night.
---Turning Very Warm Over the Weekend--
Confidence continues to grow for a surge of warm air and building
upper ridge, especially for the second half of the holiday
weekend. Overwhelming agreement in EC ensembles for temps well
into the 80s to perhaps 90 or more on Memorial Day as air as warm
at 25C arrives at 850 mb and strong upper high evolves over Ohio.
Convective threat looks quite low as this occurs though given the
very warm temps aloft.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022
VFR weather holding tonight but conditions trending quickly toward
MVFR Wednesday morning and IFR by afternoon as rain showers
overspread the region from south to north. A few tstms may
develop later in the day (after 21Z) ahead of an approaching warm
front, especially near and south of I-94 including the
AZO/BTL/JXN terminals. East winds around 10 kts tonight becoming
southeast at 15-25 kts on Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022
For now we are holding off on a Small Craft Advisory for
Wednesday, but speed criteria in southeast flow may be met and
will continue to monitor that potential.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Meade
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...Meade
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
947 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure begins to drift to the northeast as a warm front
lifts through the Ohio Valley early Wednesday morning. The air
mass will trend warmer and wetter through the remainder of the
work week as we are placed in the warm sector. Additionally,
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms can be expected
through Friday before high pressure builds back in over the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Sfc high pressure continues to retreat to the E as deeper-layer
moisture is beginning to stream in from the SSW into the OH Vly.
This is occurring as the increasingly-stacked system ejects into
the central plains, establishing deeper-layer/unidirectional
flow in the low/mid levels, which will allow for cloud cover to
thicken/increase as we progress later into the overnight period.
Regional mosaic radar imagery is already showing a FEW SHRA
across the far southern OH Vly on the leading edge of the more
pronounced theta-e/LL moisture gradient. This activity will push
N through the overnight and into the far southern parts of the
ILN FA during the predawn hours. This will occur as some
midlevel energy ripples NNE through the meridional midlevel
flow, with the best coverage favored across the W/SW third or
half of the ILN FA through daybreak. Rainfall amounts will
generally be fairly light, perhaps a tenth or two, even in the
"heavier" activity, as it will be moving to the NNE fairly
quickly as it enters the local area. Some embedded thunder
cannot be ruled out, but with limited instby, only have a
chance mention for thunder near the Tri-State.
Temps tonight should plateau for southern parts of the area once
the better cloud cover arrives from the S past midnight before
even nudging up a few degrees during the predawn hours. Further
north closer to I-70, temps will continue to slowly drop until
about 09z before plateauing, bottoming out in the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees by the end of the near term period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Hi-res models and the HREF are pretty robust in showing these
showers moving along the warm front Wednesday morning, so have
increased PoPs to high chance/likely category across a good
swath of our CWA. The best focus of these showers will be along
the ripple of shortwave energy, which is generally focused
closer towards the Tristate. As we progress into the mid morning
hours, the shortwave energy flattens and the warm front pushes
northward, which should limit coverage in pcpn during the late
morning/early afternoon.
During this period, WAA becomes amplified. Surface temperatures
will climb into the low to mid 80s south of I-70, with dewpoints
increasing into the mid-60s. Instability will increase
substantially throughout the day, with SBCAPE values of
1500-2000 J/kg near the Tristate by 21z Wednesday afternoon.
Steep low level lapse rates of 7-8C/km of favored across the fa,
but lapse rates become less impressive aloft due to the deep
layer moisture building in. PWATs will climb to around 1.6-1.7
inches during this same time, providing an elevated potential
for flooding.
There are some differences in the placement/coverage in pcpn
across the suite of hi-res models, but redevelopment is expected
to occur during the late afternoon/early evening and continue
into a good portion of the night. Lowest coverage will be
towards central OH. SPC did expand the SWODY2 Marginal in our
CWA to cover the majority of our counties, with damaging winds
and large hail being the primary threats. However, there
continues to be an indication of a low-end chance for an
isolated tornado to develop given the favorable directional
shear profiles. The main limiting factor may be the 0-1km speed
shear, which is lower (less than 15 kts) from the NAM3k, whereas
the HRRR shows some locations obtaining values in the 15-25 kt
range, which would provide a better setup for a possible tornado
threat. Will continue to leave out tor mention in the HWO, but
will monitor trends in models to see if it is warranted to
include the mention.
Coverage in pcpn decreases substantially after 06z, with more of
a focus in our western counties from there on out.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper low over the central Plains at the beginning of period will
move east across the area during the early part of the period with
much of the 12Z model suite showing a slightly faster movement of
the system. Deep meridional flow ahead of the system will draw ample
moisture into the region. Showers and storms will increase in
coverage and intensity on Thursday. There could be a few corridors
of heavy rainfall depending on how storms align. Also cannot rule
out some strong to severe storms during peak heating.
Activity will largely move east of the area on Thursday night. But
additional showers and storms will occur Friday into Friday night as
the upper system tracks through the region.
Ridging at the surface and aloft will then develop over the weekend
and continue into early next week. This will result in an extended
period of dry weather. Temperatures will warm quickly with readings
into the mid to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period, with
potential reductions in CIGs and VSBYs occurring coincident with
ISO pockets of heavier SHRA/TSRA.
An initial round of SCT SHRA, with ISO TSRA, will move N
through the region from 09z-15z or so, with the steadier
activity favored for western sites of KCVG, KLUK, and KDAY.
Cannot rule out a brief VSBY reduction with this initial round,
but think it will be ISO enough to not include in the TEMPO at
this time.
As the initial round of pcpn moves N and out of the local area
by 16z, ISO/SCT loosely-organized SHRA/TSRA is expected to
redevelop by/past 19z and continue at times through the evening
hours. Difficult to tell where this activity will be favored,
but the normal TSRA conditions of brief/sharp changes in wind
speed/direction and brief/abrupt changes in VSBYs will be
possible at any of the terminals with any of the
afternoon/evening activity and will be handled with amendments
as needed. Activity will gradually shift NE through the evening
hours, but may continue at times through the nighttime period.
Light E winds will go more SE by/past 12z, but will generally
remain around 10kts or less before going more southerly toward
00z and beyond.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through early Thursday
night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
The main forecast challenges through midweek include precipitation
and temperature as a potent upper low and associated surface low
slowly wobble across the central US. Rain chances peak this evening
and tonight, while temperatures start to warm toward seasonal norms
beginning tomorrow.
This evening and tonight... The upper low nudges east/southeast from
the CO/KS border toward Wichita as an area of increased fgen rotates
around the northern periphery. Meanwhile, the surface low follows
along to the north with an inverted trough extending through the
Missouri Valley. Broad isentropic upglide is in place over much of
Nebraska as easterly low level flow pulls additional moisture into
the region. As of 20z, the edge of the rainfall was just entering
the southeast corner of the CWA, mainly affecting Frontier and
Custer Cos. Steadily increased PoP to the northwest through about
06z, generally reaching the Hwy 61 corridor. Overnight, gradually
tapered back to the Hwy 83 corridor as forcing and lift below H7
weaken. The best for potential steady rain comes this evening, then
coverage should become more scattered. Generally followed a blend of
HRRR and HREF for overall timing and location. The threat of thunder
with this setup appears very low as guidance indicates little to no
CAPE, very weak mid level lapse rates around 4.5-5 C/km, and weak
deep layer shear of up to 20 kts. Made little change to previous
forecast regarding min temps, which are on the warm end of MOS
guidance and middle of NBM envelope. Seems reasonable given thick
cloud cover and negligible temp advection at H85. Forecast values
range from the upper 30s in the panhandle to mid 40s north central.
Did not include any frost mention for the panhandle due to
marginally cold temps and the clouds. Checked for the potential of
fog, but nearly all the parameters point toward stratus.
Wednesday... The upper low hangs around the central Plains (Kansas)
all day, while the surface low is able to reach IA/MO/IL border
region by evening. Continued PoP for central Neb into the late
morning and early afternoon hours. Isentropic downglide takes over
and a ribbon of dry air arrives in the mid levels over the panhandle
and far Western Neb. Despite northerly flow at H85, an
encroaching upper ridge from the west results in WAA. 24 hr temp
changes of at least 6C are in store for the panhandle and 2C for
central Neb. With the sky clearing (at least in the west), this
should translate to highs in the upper 60s to near 70F far west
and near 60F central. Some of the northerly winds could be breezy
in the vicinity of the low level/sfc low. H85 flow strengthens to
30 kts with the best mixing taking place in the west, but gusty
winds would be more mechanically driven by rain shower activity in
the east. Additionally, a modest PV anomaly crosses the Great
Plains midday and MSLP changes of 1 mb/hr occur.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
The upper synoptic pattern undergoes a change with a transient
ridge replacing the low over the Plains, leading to northwest flow
then quasi-zonal. Later in the weekend, a deep upper low dives
south along the Pacific Coast as the longwave trough approaches
the Baja region. Nebraska becomes entrenched in southwest flow
aloft ahead of an intensifying jet and on the western periphery of
an Eastern US ridge. Near the surface, a series of weaker
boundaries pass through the Plains with the most notable being a
warm front Friday and a somewhat stronger cold front
Monday/Tuesday. Nearly consistent southerly flow off the Gulf of
Mexico will advect moisture into the forecast area, partly shown
by dew points in the 50s and possibly lower 60s for central Neb.
This pattern supports periodic showers and storms, mainly Saturday
evening on. Will need to monitor for severe weather potential as
long range guidance suggests strong deep layer shear and bouts of
modest instability. Temperature-wise, values should rebound to
normal on Thursday (highs in the 70s to around 80F), then approach
90F to round out the workweek. Frost potential in the extended is
minimal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
Light rain will continue to impact portions of north central and
south central Nebraska through the evening. Rain will be well south
of KVTN but could impact KLBF with some brief reductions in
visibility. Rain will push east overnight with gradual rising of
ceilings through the remainder of the TAF period. While dry
conditions are expected through Wednesday afternoon, some stronger
winds with gusts up to 20 knots could be possible across all of
western and north central Nebraska.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Kulik
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
755 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
Updated forecast for scattered showers across parts of northern IL
through mid-late evening, mainly along/northwest of a KPNT-KJOT-KUGN
line.
An area of showers has developed and become more widespread west and
southwest of Chicago early this evening, and were generally lifting
northeast across the I-88 corridor from the Fox River Valley
westward as of 730 pm. Rain was likely not reaching the ground
beneath radar returns along the eastern periphery of the area of
precipitation, where cloud bases were observed around 11 kft and dry
northeasterly low level flow was undercutting mid-level moisture.
Rain was likely reaching the surface farther west however,
especially across parts of DeKalb and Lee counties. Amounts should
be light, generally a trace to perhaps a couple hundredths of an
inch beneath the heaviest of showers.
This area of weak convective showers appears to be associated with
weak forcing along the eastern periphery of a 45-50 kt mid-level
speed max along/west of the Mississippi River, at the top of a
shallow moist layer at the base of modestly steep mid-level lapse
rates (6.9 C/km between about 700-550 mb per ILX 00Z RAOB). Warmer
temps/capping around 500 mb in ILX`s sounding suggest very little/no
lightning potential with these. High-res CAM guidance indicates
these will continue to lift northeast across northern and far
northeast IL through the mid-late evening hours. Looks like there
will then be a bit of a lull in shower coverage during the early
overnight hours, before increasing again from the south toward
morning as a mid-level short wave currently across the Arklatex
region lifts toward the area.
No changes to forecast during the day Wednesday at this time, though
something to watch for will be the speed with which the warm front
lifts north across/of the area. HRRR 18Z run was slower than most
other guidance, with the boundary lifting across the area during the
afternoon rather than the late morning/midday hours and suggesting
perhaps a greater strong-severe convection threat with more
favorable diurnal instability timing. Will need to assess further
runs tonight to evaluate these trends.
Ratzer
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
Through Wednesday night...
The Lower Great Lakes are positioned between a surface high pressure
system in southern Ontario and a developing surface low pressure
system in the Southern Plains. Temperatures away from the lake are
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, winds are out of the east, and skies
are partly cloudy. In all, it`s a pleasant May day!
Tonight, the Southern Plains surface low is expected to gradually
lift northeastward. As the surface pressure gradient tightens,
easterly winds will increase overnight and reinforce the resident
dry low-level airmass. With time, cloud cover will thicken and build
downward providing a chance for a few spits of sprinkles. Overnight
lows should range from the lower 50s along the Wisconsin state line
to upper 50s across central Illinois.
Toward daybreak tomorrow, a warm front will lift across the
region providing a 2-4 hour period of showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm. As the upper-level trough responsible for
the storm system becomes pinched off from the upper-level flow
thanks to building heights across the western United States, the
surface low will slow and stall near Kansas City, MO. At any
rate, the warm front is poised to lift into Wisconsin by early
tomorrow afternoon allowing a moist and humid airmass
characterized by low-level mixing ratios of 12 to 13 g/kg and
column PWAT nearing 1.75" to quickly advect northward into our
area. With time, continued moisture advection as well as muted
diurnal heating through the low-level clouds will provide enough
instability for widely scattered showers and a perhaps a few
thunderstorms to develop areawide into the afternoon.
Toward the late afternoon, low-level flow is progged to increase as
the surface low pressure system splits into two -- one becoming tied
to an orphaning upper-level low drifting into central Missouri
and another drifting northward through Iowa tied to a departing
reflection of an upper-level trough. As a result of the somewhat
approaching Iowa surface counterpart, low-level flow will
gradually increase and veer with height across northern Illinois
and northwestern Indiana. By mid-afternoon, forecast hodographs
depict some 25-30 kt of 0-1 km storm-relative flow to sustained
and uninterrupted updrafts. However, mid- to upper-level flow will
be modest to weak at best, suggesting precipitation will falling
close proximity to what will likely be spatially small updrafts.
Taken together, any shower or thunderstorm where the downdraft is
just far enough removed from the updraft will have the potential
to support transient low-level mesocyclone with an associated
threat for a brief, likely weak (EF-0 to EF-1 caliber), tornado.
Such a threat appears maximized from about 2 to 8 PM. It`s worth
noting this system does not have the hallmarks of a surprise high-
shear/low- cape (HSLC) severe weather event but rather a "got ya"
type event given the moist and sheared low-level environment. For
a more substantial threat, we`d expect a regime in which a
surface low would be rapidly deepening while on a closer approach
providing a much deeper layer of shear as well as the means to
locally augment low-level instability via dynamically lifting a
moist-absolute unstable layer. We don`t look to have any of that
tomorrow. In addition, the threat for damaging hail and winds
looks exceedingly low (<5%) due to the expected shallow depth of
convective cores as well as lack of storm-scale organization to
develop a cold pool in an otherwise moist and unfavorable
environment. So, it`s one of those rare "weak tornado or nothing"
environments, notwithstanding the dangers of lightning.
Showers will likely continue overnight within the moist
environment, with a downward trend toward daybreak Thursday.
Borchardt
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
Thursday through Tuesday...
Main forecast concerns:
*Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms on Thursday and
Friday with the chance for a couple of funnel clouds/landspouts
Thursday afternoon
*Drier conditions move in for Memorial Day weekend with more summer
like temperatures as well
An upper-level low will be moving eastward out of the south-central
plains into the mid-Mississippi valley during the day on Thursday
which will keep widespread rain chances in play for the remainder of
the work week. Forecast guidance continues to indicate that the
upper low is expected to move through central Illinois during the
day on Thursday with some uncertainty remaining in the exact timing.
Regardless, the expected track of the low will put northeastern
Illinois and northwest Indiana along the northern side of the low
which will allow the southerly flow on the leading edge to advect
warm moist air into the region and set the stage for widespread
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms on Thursday and lingering
showers on Friday.
Forecast soundings during the day on Thursday continue to show that
the overall instability to be rather limited with only a few hundred
J/kg expected across most of the area. This weak instability and the
poor wind profiles should limit the organization of any storms
that do manage to develop and keep them below severe limits.
However, given the added vorticity due to the upper-level low`s
proximity and a weak surface low moving overhead there is the
potential for a couple of funnel clouds and/or landspouts Thursday
afternoon. The best environment for this funnel potential looks
to be confined to areas closer to the upper low where better 0-3
km CAPE around 100 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates come
together which would favor areas south of I-55, but should the low
track slightly farther north that potential would also move
north.
The low will begin to clear the area late in the day on Friday which
will allow rain chances to gradually diminish throughout the day on
Friday. A broad ridge of high pressure will move in behind the low
for our Memorial day weekend which will send temperatures warming
into the upper 80s by Monday. While the majority of the weekend
should be dry there is the potential for a couple of showers and/or
thunderstorms to develop along the western periphery of the ridge
late in the day on Sunday and Monday. There is some uncertainty in
whether or not these showers/storms will be able to materialize, but
I have maintained the mention for a slight chance of showers across
portions of northern Illinois where the western edge of the ridge is
forecast to set up. These conditions are expected to continue into
the beginning of next week.
Yack
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Aviation weather concerns for the 00Z TAFs:
* Easterly winds with gusts up to 20kt veering southeasterly
late Wednesday morning.
* Spotty showers in northwestern sites this evening.
* Showers Wednesday morning lowering ceilings to MVFR, with some
heavier showers lowering down to IFR. LIFR conditions may
develop.
* Chance for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.
Northeasterly to easterly winds will prevail throughout tonight as
high pressure moves off to the northeast, and a surface low slowly
drifts over Kansas. Winds will remain a bit gusty overnight as the
pressure gradient tightens with the approaching low. An area of
isolated showers has developed between and southwest of KRFD and
KDPA, moving towards the northeast, and may briefly bring
precipitation to these terminals this evening. Winds will veer
overnight, becoming east-southeasterly Wednesday morning. A warm
front is expected to move through the area Wednesday morning,
bringing isolated showers initially, then more widespread showers
by mid-morning. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR with the
onset of showers, with periods of IFR ceilings in heavier showers.
There is a chance for conditions to drop to LIFR (below 500 ft)
in heavier showers. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to
develop in the afternoon into the early evening over most sites,
generally moving from the southwest to the northeast. Models
indicate that there will be a break in precipitation around 00Z
Wednesday evening, but this will depend on the location of the
warm front, with showers possibly still occurring Wednesday
evening if the warm front remains over the forecast area.
BKL
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor until
9 PM Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ741-LMZ742 until 4 PM Wednesday.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
453 PM PDT Tue May 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions continue this afternoon with
near-critical fire conditions in the North Bay Interior Mountains
and the East Bay Hills. Widespread 90s are forecast for the
interior today and again on Wednesday. Cooling trend starts on
Thursday. Chances for rain should stay just north of Sonoma County
on Saturday. Otherwise the forecast for the holiday weekend looks
rather pleasant.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 02:10 PM PDT Tuesday...High pressure centered
over the Eastern Pacific Ocean is bringing clear and sunny skies
to California. With ample sunshine heating the surface coupled
with a warming airmass aloft, we are seeing notably warm
temperatures across the CWA. The airmass aloft is forecast to peak
at 20-22 degrees C at the 850 mb level (for reference, average
850 mb temps based on climatology is closer to 16 degrees C for
this time of year). At noon, Santa Rosa had already reached 91
degrees while Livermore hit 90. Between noon and 1 pm, many more
sites bumped up into the low 90s: Concord, Novato, Hollister,
Scott`s Valley, Pinnacles Natl Park, Carmel Valley, Fort Hunter
Liggett.
We are still on track for highs this afternoon to peak in
the mid to upper 90s for many of our interior sites. Closer to
the coast, winds remain onshore and our coastal residents won`t be
dealing with 90s, but rather stay in the upper 60s to 70s. So if
you`re living in the interior and need a reprieve from the heat,
the coast may feel more comfortable to you.
As for winds, we`re still seeing N to NE offshore winds in
the interior North Bay & East Bay hills, but gusts have lessened
since this morning (up to 40 mph) to 20-30 mph this afternoon. We
continue to headline the near-critical fire weather conditions in
our Fire Weather Forecast due to the warm and dry conditions with
offshore winds. The main mitigating factor as to why we are not in
a Red Flag Warning is that the heavier fuels are not completely
cured, yet. The grasses are dry/cured and can easily burn as we`ve
seen small grass fires pop up across our CWA. However, these
smaller grass fires tend to be more easily contained. The thicker
brush and trees are not completely cured, but are starting to show
signs of stress. We`ll be monitoring those heavier fuels after
this heat event since they are approaching minimum moisture
levels.
As we get into tomorrow, conditions will be similar to today
except for 2 factors: 1) The offshore winds across the interior
North Bay and East Bay Hills will not be as strong and will
actually peak in the overnight hours into early Wednesday morning
instead of blowing during the dry part of the day 2) We are
expecting a Southerly Surge (marine stratus surging northward
along the Big Sur coast and towards the Bay Area). If you`re in
the interior areas of our CWA, you`ll notice similar heat as today
if not a degree or two warmer, but it won`t be as windy in the
hills. For coastal areas, that southerly surge is forecast by our
local WRF and HRRR to move up the CA coast overnight tonight and
should be rounding the bend into the Monterey Bay between 12-15z
which is between 5-8 am local time. Some light southwesterly
winds may reach up towards the SF Bay, but unsure if the stratus
will actually extend that far north. In this southerly surge,
it`ll be likely that the stratus could hit the Santa Cruz area
first before filling into the rest of the Monterey Bay. So if you
live near Santa Cruz or along the Big Sur coast, then expect
cloudier skies tomorrow.
Moving into the second half of the week, we will feel a noticeable
cooling trend with increasing humidity. For example, on Thursday
afternoon, most places will have about a 10-15 degree drop in max
temps. Livermore will go from 96 Wednesday to 83 on Thursday.
Santa Rosa will go from 93 to 76. So expect much more seasonable
temperatures for the rest of the week as onshore winds dominate
our weather pattern. This cooling trend is due to an upper level
low weakening that high pressure system on Thursday as it moves
into the Pac NW and NorCal. This large broad trough is expected to
linger in the area into the weekend and early next week. Although
most of the rain associated with this low will stay well north of
our CWA, some of the extended models are hinting that a bit of
light rain could brush far northern Sonoma county on Saturday and
the NBM reflects this in our forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 4:44 PM PDT Tuesday...For the 00Z TAFs. VFR
through the TAF period for all but the Monterey Bay, which will
see a push of Fog and LIFR CIGs early Wednesday. Winds will become
light to moderate in the evening and overnight. Winds aloft over
the North Bay look to remain strong, causing concerns for LLWS in
the late night for APC. Lower clouds will move inland from the
south around the Monterey Bay in the late night. Wednesday offers
VFR region- wide into the afternoon with light to moderate winds.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds will
stay moderate through the evening. Late night winds become light and
variable and these weakened winds will last well into the morning
Moderate westerly winds return around the midday Wednesday and look
to last through that evening.
KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay...VFR with moderate winds into the night. Winds will
reduce and become lighter overnight. Stratus begins to move in from
the South and build in the Monterey Bay after wrapping around the
peninsula. The stratus and fog will mostly stay over the bay
overnight, but looks to filter into the Salinas Vally early
Wednesday morning. This will cause LIFR at SNS. Expect VFR to return
in the mid morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...as of 03:00 AM PDT Tuesday...Elevated fire
weather concerns are expected on Tuesday due to above average
temperatures, offshore winds and critically low relative humidity.
Strong offshore wind gusts are forecast over the North Bay
Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills with gusts of 25 to 35 mph.
Critically low humidity readings are expected across the interior
with single digit to low teens and little to no recovery Tuesday
night into Wednesday. A southerly surge is looking more likely on
Wednesday ushering in much cooler temperatures and higher
humidity. This will first occur near the coastline and then spread
inland by Wednesday night diminishing fire weather concerns.
Remember: one less spark, one less fire!
&&
.MARINE...as of 04:52 PM PDT Tuesday...Expect northwest winds to
continue to be gusty with the strongest in the northern outer
waters and coastal jets to the south of the prominent points.
Steep wind waves around 10 to 12 feet with a period of 8 to 10
seconds possible through tonight. However, winds will start to
diminish Wednesday morning. This will help to improve the sea
state, bringing wave heights down to 6 to 8 feet.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 9 PM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Bingaman
AVIATION: Murdock
MARINE: Murdock
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1007 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
.UPDATE...
Tone down some of the weather in several zones for the overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
A good day for abating the severe threat for our area with a
second sea breeze now lifting over SW AR and NE LA. Associated
thunderstorm outflow has bumped up a few more showers for the
SHV/BO metro area and of course the huge synoptic trough is still
on approach. However, the SPC has a SVR watch on our door step
into the wee hours of 3am, indicating that we have been toned
down from what this event could have been if we were somewhat more
discrete hanging on to heat, than the nice sea breeze linear
pushes working our area over. A new watch may still finish the
overnight hours if a good LLJ can feed this expected line of
convection as still a Slight Risk on the updated day one. Most
gusts off the Gulf with heating are in the 30-40 mph range and
have been. However, Longview did see 50KT gust on the first wave.
This second is still looking healthy oded to the long wave
Westerlies push on approach, but it will soon push out. We will
keep an eye out for the development in E TX, but much of our
energy has already been spent. Flooding may yet be our worse to
come for the overnight with no changes to our Flash Flood Watch in
progress as the HRRR and NAM both show a nice line yet to come
overnight and into the early morning hours. /24/
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 725 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022/
AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex terminals, we had a hearty sea breeze early, w/
a large synoptic Westerlies trough still on approach, which has
done well to lower our CAPE. However, a 2nd sea breeze is
underway and will stay E of KLFK, but could affect our LA I-20
sites if it can hold together after sunset. Otherwise, the models
have been playing catch up on our next good soaking overnight, but
w/ a good low level jet and due S aloft throughout the column, a
good feeding of a dvlpg SQ line out of TX remains possible. So
timing may be off a few hrs in the wake of our aftn downpours. SFC
winds are 5-15KT from SE for most and will be shifting to SW and
W during Thurs. /24/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022/
SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/
Active weather conditions will continue across the Ark-La-Tex
through the next 36 hours, starting with the second round of
thunderstorms (some of which could be severe) arriving late
tonight ahead of a cold front that will proceed eastward across
North Texas and the Red River Valley. Uncertainty remains with the
intensity of these storms within high-resolution/CAM guidance
after the first round of storms expends some of the available
energy in the atmosphere. While the level of convection depends on
how atmospheric energy recharges, there is more certainty on the
storm mode taking the form of a line, boosting the threat of
damaging winds. Forecast soundings indicate more low-level shear
being available overnight with SRH over 200 m2/s2, which also
means that the threat of isolated tornadoes embedded within the
line cannot be ruled out. Overall, the overnight severe weather
threat primarily includes damaging winds with an elevated risk of
isolated tornadoes.
Minimum temperatures will fall towards the mid-to-upper 60s, with
1 to 2 inches of rain expected in addition to the rain that fell
this afternoon. Impacts will evolve to flash flooding in the early
morning hours, especially with isolated 2+ inch amounts in
certain areas, however, drier antecedent soils are expected to
benefit from this rainfall, keeping a more serious flooding event
from occurring.
By Wednesday morning, the frontal boundary will begin to enter
our western zones, gradually clearing the Ark-La-Tex after sunset.
Moist surfaces and cloud cover will moderate afternoon maximum
temperatures into the mid-to-upper 70s area wide, while southerly
winds gradually gain a southwesterly component with frontal
passage. Cloud cover, and the 60-degree isodrosotherm, will recede
eastward by Wednesday night, allowing minimum temperatures
ranging in the lower 50s to lower 60s, well below normal for this
time of the year. /16/
LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday Night/
Starting 12z Thursday (Thursday Morning)...Upper level pattern as we
move into the long term portion of the forecast period features a
closed low centered near the Oklahoma/Arkansas/Kansas/Missouri
borders. Given it`s location, we could see some wrap around moisture
around the low across portions of our northern zones, so I have
maintained some low end PoPs for areas generally north of I-30
through the day Thursday. The upper level low will gradually push
eastward to the Kentucky/Tennessee state lines by Thursday
night/Friday morning. This will bring an end to the precipitation
across our area through the remainder of the weekend.
Post frontal airmass will keep temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees
below seasonable normals on Thursday with afternoon highs ranging
from the lower 70s across our northern zones to lower 80s across our
southern zones. Temperatures will then remain below seasonable
normals through Friday night, with lows ranging from the mid 50s to
lower 60s for Thursday and Friday night and highs on Friday ranging
from the upper 70s to mid 80s. You may have picked up on the trend
from Thursday to Friday with temperatures slightly warmer on Friday
than on Thursday. This trend will continue on Saturday and Sunday
with afternoon highs returning to the lower 90s across the region on
Sunday.
This warming trend is due to a building ridge across the southwest
CONUS that will move into our region over the weekend and into the
start of next week. As we move into Monday and Tuesday of next week,
we could see a return of some precipitation, but models have some
disagreement, as they often do with forecasts that far out, so have
just maintained the low NBM PoPs that were given to me for day 7 and
beyond. Otherwise, most of the long term period should feature dry
conditions with increasing temperatures. Temperatures will then
remain below seasonable normals through Friday night. /33/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 79 59 79 / 80 70 30 10
MLU 68 80 62 79 / 60 90 70 10
DEQ 63 77 54 73 / 90 60 20 10
TXK 66 77 58 74 / 90 60 20 10
ELD 64 78 57 75 / 80 80 40 10
TYR 64 77 57 80 / 90 30 10 0
GGG 64 77 56 79 / 90 50 10 10
LFK 65 79 58 82 / 90 70 20 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ077.
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
24/16/33