Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/25/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
941 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 .DISCUSSION...Updated the forecast for Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the western 4 counties of the Brush Country. Severe storm currently moving southeast along the Rio Grande toward Laredo. Additional storms forming over the Hill Country are expected to move southeast toward the region overnight. SPC updated the risk of severe storms to Slight to cover most of the forecast area tonight. Updated to include wording of severe storms in forecast. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 642 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022/ AVIATION /00Z TAFS/... VFR conditions will prevail until a cold front comes through the region tonight. Latest CAM guidance has been trending to an earlier arrival time with the front reaching the northern counties including VCT/COT 07-08Z then surging southward into CRP/ALI/CRP around 09-10Z. A line/cluster of strong to severe showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front and continue in wake through the mid-morning around 15Z. Expect the strongest of storms along and just behind the front. Damaging winds is the primary threat. Winds will shift to the northeast with this line of storms then shift more N to NW and weaken to around 10 knots by the afternoon. MVFR ceilings will develop in advance of the front, prevailing through the majority of the TAF period. Amendments will be likely if storms develop ahead of the front, keeping an eye on a cluster just west of Maverick County moving southeast currently. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)... This morning`s convective activity continues to nudge east across the Western Gulf of Mexico. A rather worked over atmosphere was left in it`s wake. With that said, instability is back on the rise with CAPE values now nearing 1500 J/kg. As we head into the overnight hours, another shortwave, which can be seen in water vapor imagery, will eject across the state as a cold front is sent our way. We will continue to destabilize through the evening hours with CAPE values likely topping 2500 J/kg along with mid level lapse rates close to 8C/km. Meanwhile, moisture will pool back across the Coastal Plains with PWATs nearing 1.8". This will open the door for another MCS to move across the Victoria Crossroads late tonight and moving offshore by mid to late morning. Although the CAMS did not perform too well with yesterday`s activity, there seems to be pretty good agreement with the timing tonight. To add confidence, the HRRR Neural Network has our highest probabilities of any severe hazards during the 10- 14Z timeframe Wednesday morning. Wind looks to be our greatest concern, especially if any bowing segments sweep through the region. Convection looks to linger offshore through the afternoon before drier air moves in as ridging works in aloft. Lowered highs for tomorrow as a rare late May northerly wind develops and cloud coverage lingers behind the front. Currently have high temps in the low to mid 80s. However, if the drier air arrives earlier than expected, we could see temps warm a bit more through the day. LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... High pressure will build into the longer term period bringing much quieter weather to the region. Mid and upper level ridging will shift across the area through the latter part of the week with winds shifting back around to the southeast by Wednesday. Temperatures Friday should still be near normal before pushing back above normal for the weekend. A weak mid level disturbance could bring some moisture back to the region by early next week with some slight chance PoPs. Breezy conditions will return for the weekend and especially into early next week. MARINE... Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist through early Wednesday afternoon as southeasterly winds of 20-25 knots continue. Another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight into the mid morning hours tomorrow as a front moves towards the coast. Activity will wane during the afternoon hours as drier air works into the region. A moderate north-northeasterly wind will develop in the wake of the front Wednesday evening. High pressure builds through the late part of the week with winds subsiding to light to moderate levels Thursday. Onshore flow will return by Friday with a gradual increase in wind speeds into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 73 83 67 88 71 / 60 80 30 0 0 Victoria 69 81 62 90 66 / 80 80 20 0 0 Laredo 73 86 69 95 74 / 40 50 10 0 0 Alice 71 85 66 94 68 / 60 70 20 0 0 Rockport 74 84 69 87 74 / 70 80 30 0 0 Cotulla 69 86 65 94 71 / 70 60 0 0 0 Kingsville 72 85 66 93 70 / 50 80 20 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 84 73 87 76 / 60 80 40 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT Wednesday For the following zones: Baffin Bay and Upper Laguna Madre...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM... Copano, Aransas, and Redfish Bays...Corpus Christi and Nueces Bays...San Antonio, Mesquite, and Espiritu Santo Bays...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ TMT/89...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
637 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM.../Tonight/ Issued at 341 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Key Messages: -- Chilly, gloomy, and rainy tonight Chilly, gloomy, and rainy will be the topic of discussion today through the early morning on Thursday. The expansive area of precipitation covering much of the Midwest has now pushed into our CWA. The start time for the precipitation lagged a few hours this morning due to the dry air at the surface. The OMA 12Z observed sounding and the HRRR and RAP model soundings indicated that the vertical motion and precipitation would overcome the dry air near the surface around 11am to 12pm for our southern portions which was on target for what occurred. The precipitation will continue to spread across the forecast area throughout the late afternoon as large scale forcing for ascent increases ahead of an approaching upper level low. The NAM and GFS 300K isentropic surface continue to indicate moisture advection is expected to lift through the state tonight before exiting to the north and east by midday Wednesday. This allows for widespread precipitation to continue into early Wednesday. The storm total rainfall across the southeastern area is expected to amount 0.75" to 1" with areas in western and central portions of the CWA seeing the highest QPF amounts of 1.30" to 1.75". The GEFS and EC ensemble probabilities continue to suggest some accumulations in excess of 2" possible south central or southwest. These areas with higher amounts are in response to the QG convergence being maximized with strongest omega residing over the west. Winds are beginning to increase this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens between the approaching low and Great Lakes high. Winds will increase into the overnight hours with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible. Given that the rain is expected to fall over a 24-hr period, flash flooding is not anticipated and convection will be limited. Some areas in far southern Iowa near the IA/MO border could hear a few rumbles of thunder due to the elevated instability that will creep into that area overnight. Overnight lows will remain brisk in the upper 40s for northern portions and in the low to mid 50s in southern potions. && .LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Tuesday/ Issued at 341 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Key Messages: -- Small chance of strong/perhaps severe storms southeastern Iowa Wednesday afternoon -- Turning drier, warmer Friday into this weekend -- Storm chances Sunday and Memorial Day Details: Rain will be common over many parts of the state early Wednesday morning with the upper level closed low over western Oklahoma and Kansas with a surface low over eastern Kansas that will track northeastward toward southeastern Iowa by late in the day. However, the strongest push of QG convergence and theta-e advection will be lifting northeastward in the morning hours as the low approaches. Lingering appreciable QG convergence along with deformation will remain over northwestern half of the state promoting spotty showers. As previous discussion noted and morning guidance remains showing, it looks like southeastern Iowa including the southeastern portion of our forecast area will be in the warm sector Wednesday afternoon. The 12z HREF shows thinning of the cloud deck in the low and mid- levels towards Ottumwa and this sunshine may give a boost to instability. Forecast sounding at OTM show a saturated profile and skinny CAPE profile in the low to mid-levels (below 600mb or so in the 15z RAP, perhaps a little past 500mb in 18z HRRR) that would be surface based. The peak of the instability will be a few hour window starting around mid-afternoon (4pm or so) til early evening (8pm or so) when the low pressure will move northeast of the area and sweep the warm sector out of the forecast area. The line of storms in the 12z and 18z guidance doesn`t look to reach our forecast area til near 5pm. Deep layer in the 0-6km layer is around 30 to 35 knots suggesting all modes of severe possible. However, weak mid-level lapse rates and saturated profile should limit the hail and wind potential. Wind profile and hodographs have not looked overly impressive with southerly flow that becomes south-southwesterly or southwesterly as the line of storms arrives. This has limited storm relative helicity. However, 18z HRRR shows much better backed flow resulting in appreciable low level helicity. In contrast, the 15z RAP forecast soundings at Centerville and Ottumwa show minimal low level helicity as the hodograph is nearly linear. That said, the 0- 3km shear vector looks to be favorably oriented to the line of storms, though any QLCS tornadoes may be localized as the magnitude will be near or below 30 knots. The more likely area looks to be just east of Ottumwa/Bloomfield line and seems supportive of the eastward push of the SPC day 2 outlook compared to the midnight issuance. The persistence of the rainfall will be waning into Thursday ending from west to east as QG convergence finally wanes. As the closed low/trough axis moves east of the forecast area, a ridge axis will push into the region by Saturday morning. This will allow for temperatures to be near or a little above normal by Friday and likely above normal through the Memorial Day weekend. Initial guidance from the NBM may be too low biased by the recent cool conditions may need to adjust values a few degrees upward in the coming days. The caveat to the above normal temperatures will be as the ridge axis is flattened by a broad longwave trough pushing southward over the western US, shortwave troughs will be ejected through and north of the state with this being the higher location for showers and storms. This may keep conditions closer to normal if clouds and/or storms limit insolation. The 12z GFS pulls some storms through Friday night into Saturday morning and again Saturday night while the ECMWF remains largely north. However, the setup of Iowa being in the warm sector with a boundary/warm front to the north or over parts of northern Iowa could offer storm and severe chances if this sinks farther southward. This idea is supported by the 00z Colorado State`s machine learning random forest outlook, which highlights Iowa on Sunday and more so on Memorial Day. In addition, 00z CIPS Experimental Analog-Based Severe Probability Guidance shows 15% probability of severe both of those days as well. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/ Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Widespread rain showers are expected across Iowa tonight into Wednesday. Conditions will worsen during the period with ceilings and visibilities becoming MVFR across much of the state with localized IFR conditions. Surface winds are expected to be rather robust from the east overnight and gusty as the pressure gradient remains tight. Some easing of the winds are expected into Wednesday afternoon as surface low pressure approaches the state. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ansorge/Viken LONG TERM...Ansorge AVIATION...Cogil
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
647 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Have added Maverick and Kinney counties to the Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269 as strong to severe storms approach from the west. Still looks on track for one or two rounds of showers and thunderstorms for much of South Central Texas tonight into early Wednesday with strong to severe storms likely. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Cold front at 2 pm extends from near SJT to SEP is beginning to generate storm clusters north of it, but the cap appears to be holding for the area to the south. The pair of MCV`s that deprived our forecast area much of the rainfall that was advertised yesterday continues to leave wake subsidence, and even the old faithful activity is slow to get started. This leaves a poor picture for rain forecast for tonight to extend into areas west of Hwy 83, but east of this area, there remains good model agreement on a solid line of storms forming to the north and sweeping across the eastern 3/4 of South Central TX from generally 7 PM to 7 AM. An exception over the western counties is that the dryline near Dryden might generate a late afternoon or early evening isolated strong storm over Val Verde County; the latest HRRR runs show that activity to track east and get absorbed into the complex without any ability to pull the trailing edge westward. Thus, it is feared much of the Rio Grande areas will miss out on tonight`s rain, although the sim-reflectivity of the latest would bring the western edge of activity pretty close to the border south of DRT. Storm dynamics/wind shear have escalated the severe potential with an Enhanced Risk to represent this large storm complex with a highlight the potential for strong organized downdrafts with the congealing line. Areas where the line is still coming together from discrete supercells and areas where the line may kink early tonight may have a shot to produce a brief tornado or two. Some hail over 1 inch is possible, but we think the primary severe concern for tonight is the strong winds and rounds of torrential that could dump 1 to 2 inches over a short time. PWat values approaching 2 inches near the leading edge could lead to a couple pockets of 3 to 4 inches in any of the areas where the line kinks with overlapping storm cells. Timing of the leading edge looks to be zeroing in on as early as 7 PM for parts of the Srn Edwards Plateau and Nrn Hill Country, then probably closer to the 10 PM-1 AM window for the metro areas. The potential for tornadoes should be mostly confined to the Enhanced risk areas and maybe as far south as I-10, because large outflow winds are anticipated on the leading edge once the line becomes more uniform late tonight. By around 3 AM, the severe threat should be winding down and certainly for the metro areas; most areas below I-10/Hwy 90 are only in a Marginal Risk, and the severe threat should be all wind by that time. As for the rain threat, it would be hard to imagine a run-off threat for areas south of I-10/Hwy 90, given our dry soils and what looks to be a fairly progressive moving squall line. Some of the Convective Allowing models depict a pair of lines with a trailing line over western counties filling in areas where the leading edge was more poorly organized. Thus our concerns for run-off issues might be mainly the Hill Country were the training is more likely and the soil depths are shallow. Cooler temperatures and dry air will make for a pleasant day by Wednesday afternoon, and Wednesday evening will be even more pleasant as temps drop quickly into the upper 60s/low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 South-Central Texas will be transitioning to a warmer and drier pattern once again as troughing moves east on Thursday. With mid- level WNW flow and little in the way of synoptic forcing mechanisms, expect the heat to build back in over the CWA by the holiday weekend. Temperatures will warm to near-normal levels for late May on Thursday, followed by a steady warming trend into the weekend. By Saturday, expect widespread lower to middle 90s for the Hill Country and Coastal Plains, with upper 90s to low 100s generally west of US 281. That continues Sunday into Monday of next week with muggy/humid mornings, and hot and dry afternoons. Our next potential chance at rain doesn`t look to arrive until Tuesday of next week as onshore flow may increase, bringing seabreeze showers or thunderstorms inland to the Coastal Plains. Will keep things dry for the time being. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 One or perhaps two rounds of SHRA/TSRA will impact the I-35 sites late this evening into the overnight with SHRA/TSRA in the VCNTY of KDRT. Wind gusts to 50 KTS and hail to 2 inches are possible with the strongest TSRA. VFR skies prevail, except periods of brief MVFR/IFR CIGs/VSBYs and lightning late evening into overnight. S to SE winds 10 to 15 KTs with gusts to 20 KTs this evening shift to be N to NW with passage of the cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 65 79 59 87 / 90 20 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 79 58 87 / 90 20 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 81 59 89 / 90 30 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 62 79 57 89 / 100 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 87 64 93 / 40 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 63 78 58 87 / 100 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 65 83 59 89 / 70 20 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 80 58 88 / 90 20 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 80 61 88 / 90 60 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 65 80 61 87 / 90 20 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 67 84 63 91 / 90 40 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
748 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 --Unsettled through Friday-- Closed upper low to drift slowly east-northeast from the Plains over the next few days, providing a prolonged period of unsettled weather with periods/rounds of showers and tstms. Deep/moist southerly flow ahead of this feature delivers PWATs of over 1.5 inches on Wednesday, and would expect to see our first batch of rain showers to be associated with the leading edge of that moisture gradient. Once that round of rain lifts north in the afternoon, will have to keep an eye on any convection which develops in it`s wake. RAP guidance develops SB Capes of 500-1500 J/KG over the southwest corner of Lwr MI after 21Z Wed; south and west of a Holland to Jackson line. With sfc winds still out of the southeast and strongly veered flow in the lowest 3 KM, there would appear to be some risk of rotation in any sfc based cells that can develop, roughly 21Z-03Z. Low LCL heights are also progged as sfc warm front and higher sfc dew points arrive late in the day Wed. Risk of a quick spin-up is very low and conditional, but nevertheless one that should not be overlooked. That threat, as well as overall coverage of showers/storms, should diminish after 03Z as sfc based instability wanes and warm front lifts north of the area. Renewed threat and increased coverage of showers/storms expected for Thursday as the next impulse lifts northeast from the upper low/trough toward Lwr MI. Amount of sfc instability will obviously hinge on extent of sunshine/heating that we see, but a severe wx risk could develop Thursday as well during the afternoon/evening, especially east of Hwy 131. While a risk of showers will continue on Friday with the upper low still nearby, the severe weather risk looks lower since we`ll be in the cooler/more stable north-northeast low level flow behind the cold front which sags through on Thursday night. ---Turning Very Warm Over the Weekend-- Confidence continues to grow for a surge of warm air and building upper ridge, especially for the second half of the holiday weekend. Overwhelming agreement in EC ensembles for temps well into the 80s to perhaps 90 or more on Memorial Day as air as warm at 25C arrives at 850 mb and strong upper high evolves over Ohio. Convective threat looks quite low as this occurs though given the very warm temps aloft. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 748 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 VFR weather holding tonight but conditions trending quickly toward MVFR Wednesday morning and IFR by afternoon as rain showers overspread the region from south to north. A few tstms may develop later in the day (after 21Z) ahead of an approaching warm front, especially near and south of I-94 including the AZO/BTL/JXN terminals. East winds around 10 kts tonight becoming southeast at 15-25 kts on Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 For now we are holding off on a Small Craft Advisory for Wednesday, but speed criteria in southeast flow may be met and will continue to monitor that potential. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meade AVIATION...Meade MARINE...Meade
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
947 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure begins to drift to the northeast as a warm front lifts through the Ohio Valley early Wednesday morning. The air mass will trend warmer and wetter through the remainder of the work week as we are placed in the warm sector. Additionally, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms can be expected through Friday before high pressure builds back in over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Sfc high pressure continues to retreat to the E as deeper-layer moisture is beginning to stream in from the SSW into the OH Vly. This is occurring as the increasingly-stacked system ejects into the central plains, establishing deeper-layer/unidirectional flow in the low/mid levels, which will allow for cloud cover to thicken/increase as we progress later into the overnight period. Regional mosaic radar imagery is already showing a FEW SHRA across the far southern OH Vly on the leading edge of the more pronounced theta-e/LL moisture gradient. This activity will push N through the overnight and into the far southern parts of the ILN FA during the predawn hours. This will occur as some midlevel energy ripples NNE through the meridional midlevel flow, with the best coverage favored across the W/SW third or half of the ILN FA through daybreak. Rainfall amounts will generally be fairly light, perhaps a tenth or two, even in the "heavier" activity, as it will be moving to the NNE fairly quickly as it enters the local area. Some embedded thunder cannot be ruled out, but with limited instby, only have a chance mention for thunder near the Tri-State. Temps tonight should plateau for southern parts of the area once the better cloud cover arrives from the S past midnight before even nudging up a few degrees during the predawn hours. Further north closer to I-70, temps will continue to slowly drop until about 09z before plateauing, bottoming out in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees by the end of the near term period. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Hi-res models and the HREF are pretty robust in showing these showers moving along the warm front Wednesday morning, so have increased PoPs to high chance/likely category across a good swath of our CWA. The best focus of these showers will be along the ripple of shortwave energy, which is generally focused closer towards the Tristate. As we progress into the mid morning hours, the shortwave energy flattens and the warm front pushes northward, which should limit coverage in pcpn during the late morning/early afternoon. During this period, WAA becomes amplified. Surface temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s south of I-70, with dewpoints increasing into the mid-60s. Instability will increase substantially throughout the day, with SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg near the Tristate by 21z Wednesday afternoon. Steep low level lapse rates of 7-8C/km of favored across the fa, but lapse rates become less impressive aloft due to the deep layer moisture building in. PWATs will climb to around 1.6-1.7 inches during this same time, providing an elevated potential for flooding. There are some differences in the placement/coverage in pcpn across the suite of hi-res models, but redevelopment is expected to occur during the late afternoon/early evening and continue into a good portion of the night. Lowest coverage will be towards central OH. SPC did expand the SWODY2 Marginal in our CWA to cover the majority of our counties, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats. However, there continues to be an indication of a low-end chance for an isolated tornado to develop given the favorable directional shear profiles. The main limiting factor may be the 0-1km speed shear, which is lower (less than 15 kts) from the NAM3k, whereas the HRRR shows some locations obtaining values in the 15-25 kt range, which would provide a better setup for a possible tornado threat. Will continue to leave out tor mention in the HWO, but will monitor trends in models to see if it is warranted to include the mention. Coverage in pcpn decreases substantially after 06z, with more of a focus in our western counties from there on out. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upper low over the central Plains at the beginning of period will move east across the area during the early part of the period with much of the 12Z model suite showing a slightly faster movement of the system. Deep meridional flow ahead of the system will draw ample moisture into the region. Showers and storms will increase in coverage and intensity on Thursday. There could be a few corridors of heavy rainfall depending on how storms align. Also cannot rule out some strong to severe storms during peak heating. Activity will largely move east of the area on Thursday night. But additional showers and storms will occur Friday into Friday night as the upper system tracks through the region. Ridging at the surface and aloft will then develop over the weekend and continue into early next week. This will result in an extended period of dry weather. Temperatures will warm quickly with readings into the mid to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period, with potential reductions in CIGs and VSBYs occurring coincident with ISO pockets of heavier SHRA/TSRA. An initial round of SCT SHRA, with ISO TSRA, will move N through the region from 09z-15z or so, with the steadier activity favored for western sites of KCVG, KLUK, and KDAY. Cannot rule out a brief VSBY reduction with this initial round, but think it will be ISO enough to not include in the TEMPO at this time. As the initial round of pcpn moves N and out of the local area by 16z, ISO/SCT loosely-organized SHRA/TSRA is expected to redevelop by/past 19z and continue at times through the evening hours. Difficult to tell where this activity will be favored, but the normal TSRA conditions of brief/sharp changes in wind speed/direction and brief/abrupt changes in VSBYs will be possible at any of the terminals with any of the afternoon/evening activity and will be handled with amendments as needed. Activity will gradually shift NE through the evening hours, but may continue at times through the nighttime period. Light E winds will go more SE by/past 12z, but will generally remain around 10kts or less before going more southerly toward 00z and beyond. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through early Thursday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...Clark LONG TERM... AVIATION...KC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 The main forecast challenges through midweek include precipitation and temperature as a potent upper low and associated surface low slowly wobble across the central US. Rain chances peak this evening and tonight, while temperatures start to warm toward seasonal norms beginning tomorrow. This evening and tonight... The upper low nudges east/southeast from the CO/KS border toward Wichita as an area of increased fgen rotates around the northern periphery. Meanwhile, the surface low follows along to the north with an inverted trough extending through the Missouri Valley. Broad isentropic upglide is in place over much of Nebraska as easterly low level flow pulls additional moisture into the region. As of 20z, the edge of the rainfall was just entering the southeast corner of the CWA, mainly affecting Frontier and Custer Cos. Steadily increased PoP to the northwest through about 06z, generally reaching the Hwy 61 corridor. Overnight, gradually tapered back to the Hwy 83 corridor as forcing and lift below H7 weaken. The best for potential steady rain comes this evening, then coverage should become more scattered. Generally followed a blend of HRRR and HREF for overall timing and location. The threat of thunder with this setup appears very low as guidance indicates little to no CAPE, very weak mid level lapse rates around 4.5-5 C/km, and weak deep layer shear of up to 20 kts. Made little change to previous forecast regarding min temps, which are on the warm end of MOS guidance and middle of NBM envelope. Seems reasonable given thick cloud cover and negligible temp advection at H85. Forecast values range from the upper 30s in the panhandle to mid 40s north central. Did not include any frost mention for the panhandle due to marginally cold temps and the clouds. Checked for the potential of fog, but nearly all the parameters point toward stratus. Wednesday... The upper low hangs around the central Plains (Kansas) all day, while the surface low is able to reach IA/MO/IL border region by evening. Continued PoP for central Neb into the late morning and early afternoon hours. Isentropic downglide takes over and a ribbon of dry air arrives in the mid levels over the panhandle and far Western Neb. Despite northerly flow at H85, an encroaching upper ridge from the west results in WAA. 24 hr temp changes of at least 6C are in store for the panhandle and 2C for central Neb. With the sky clearing (at least in the west), this should translate to highs in the upper 60s to near 70F far west and near 60F central. Some of the northerly winds could be breezy in the vicinity of the low level/sfc low. H85 flow strengthens to 30 kts with the best mixing taking place in the west, but gusty winds would be more mechanically driven by rain shower activity in the east. Additionally, a modest PV anomaly crosses the Great Plains midday and MSLP changes of 1 mb/hr occur. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 The upper synoptic pattern undergoes a change with a transient ridge replacing the low over the Plains, leading to northwest flow then quasi-zonal. Later in the weekend, a deep upper low dives south along the Pacific Coast as the longwave trough approaches the Baja region. Nebraska becomes entrenched in southwest flow aloft ahead of an intensifying jet and on the western periphery of an Eastern US ridge. Near the surface, a series of weaker boundaries pass through the Plains with the most notable being a warm front Friday and a somewhat stronger cold front Monday/Tuesday. Nearly consistent southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will advect moisture into the forecast area, partly shown by dew points in the 50s and possibly lower 60s for central Neb. This pattern supports periodic showers and storms, mainly Saturday evening on. Will need to monitor for severe weather potential as long range guidance suggests strong deep layer shear and bouts of modest instability. Temperature-wise, values should rebound to normal on Thursday (highs in the 70s to around 80F), then approach 90F to round out the workweek. Frost potential in the extended is minimal. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Light rain will continue to impact portions of north central and south central Nebraska through the evening. Rain will be well south of KVTN but could impact KLBF with some brief reductions in visibility. Rain will push east overnight with gradual rising of ceilings through the remainder of the TAF period. While dry conditions are expected through Wednesday afternoon, some stronger winds with gusts up to 20 knots could be possible across all of western and north central Nebraska. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Snively LONG TERM...Snively AVIATION...Kulik
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
755 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 755 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Updated forecast for scattered showers across parts of northern IL through mid-late evening, mainly along/northwest of a KPNT-KJOT-KUGN line. An area of showers has developed and become more widespread west and southwest of Chicago early this evening, and were generally lifting northeast across the I-88 corridor from the Fox River Valley westward as of 730 pm. Rain was likely not reaching the ground beneath radar returns along the eastern periphery of the area of precipitation, where cloud bases were observed around 11 kft and dry northeasterly low level flow was undercutting mid-level moisture. Rain was likely reaching the surface farther west however, especially across parts of DeKalb and Lee counties. Amounts should be light, generally a trace to perhaps a couple hundredths of an inch beneath the heaviest of showers. This area of weak convective showers appears to be associated with weak forcing along the eastern periphery of a 45-50 kt mid-level speed max along/west of the Mississippi River, at the top of a shallow moist layer at the base of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates (6.9 C/km between about 700-550 mb per ILX 00Z RAOB). Warmer temps/capping around 500 mb in ILX`s sounding suggest very little/no lightning potential with these. High-res CAM guidance indicates these will continue to lift northeast across northern and far northeast IL through the mid-late evening hours. Looks like there will then be a bit of a lull in shower coverage during the early overnight hours, before increasing again from the south toward morning as a mid-level short wave currently across the Arklatex region lifts toward the area. No changes to forecast during the day Wednesday at this time, though something to watch for will be the speed with which the warm front lifts north across/of the area. HRRR 18Z run was slower than most other guidance, with the boundary lifting across the area during the afternoon rather than the late morning/midday hours and suggesting perhaps a greater strong-severe convection threat with more favorable diurnal instability timing. Will need to assess further runs tonight to evaluate these trends. Ratzer && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Through Wednesday night... The Lower Great Lakes are positioned between a surface high pressure system in southern Ontario and a developing surface low pressure system in the Southern Plains. Temperatures away from the lake are in the upper 60s to lower 70s, winds are out of the east, and skies are partly cloudy. In all, it`s a pleasant May day! Tonight, the Southern Plains surface low is expected to gradually lift northeastward. As the surface pressure gradient tightens, easterly winds will increase overnight and reinforce the resident dry low-level airmass. With time, cloud cover will thicken and build downward providing a chance for a few spits of sprinkles. Overnight lows should range from the lower 50s along the Wisconsin state line to upper 50s across central Illinois. Toward daybreak tomorrow, a warm front will lift across the region providing a 2-4 hour period of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. As the upper-level trough responsible for the storm system becomes pinched off from the upper-level flow thanks to building heights across the western United States, the surface low will slow and stall near Kansas City, MO. At any rate, the warm front is poised to lift into Wisconsin by early tomorrow afternoon allowing a moist and humid airmass characterized by low-level mixing ratios of 12 to 13 g/kg and column PWAT nearing 1.75" to quickly advect northward into our area. With time, continued moisture advection as well as muted diurnal heating through the low-level clouds will provide enough instability for widely scattered showers and a perhaps a few thunderstorms to develop areawide into the afternoon. Toward the late afternoon, low-level flow is progged to increase as the surface low pressure system splits into two -- one becoming tied to an orphaning upper-level low drifting into central Missouri and another drifting northward through Iowa tied to a departing reflection of an upper-level trough. As a result of the somewhat approaching Iowa surface counterpart, low-level flow will gradually increase and veer with height across northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana. By mid-afternoon, forecast hodographs depict some 25-30 kt of 0-1 km storm-relative flow to sustained and uninterrupted updrafts. However, mid- to upper-level flow will be modest to weak at best, suggesting precipitation will falling close proximity to what will likely be spatially small updrafts. Taken together, any shower or thunderstorm where the downdraft is just far enough removed from the updraft will have the potential to support transient low-level mesocyclone with an associated threat for a brief, likely weak (EF-0 to EF-1 caliber), tornado. Such a threat appears maximized from about 2 to 8 PM. It`s worth noting this system does not have the hallmarks of a surprise high- shear/low- cape (HSLC) severe weather event but rather a "got ya" type event given the moist and sheared low-level environment. For a more substantial threat, we`d expect a regime in which a surface low would be rapidly deepening while on a closer approach providing a much deeper layer of shear as well as the means to locally augment low-level instability via dynamically lifting a moist-absolute unstable layer. We don`t look to have any of that tomorrow. In addition, the threat for damaging hail and winds looks exceedingly low (<5%) due to the expected shallow depth of convective cores as well as lack of storm-scale organization to develop a cold pool in an otherwise moist and unfavorable environment. So, it`s one of those rare "weak tornado or nothing" environments, notwithstanding the dangers of lightning. Showers will likely continue overnight within the moist environment, with a downward trend toward daybreak Thursday. Borchardt && .LONG TERM... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Thursday through Tuesday... Main forecast concerns: *Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday with the chance for a couple of funnel clouds/landspouts Thursday afternoon *Drier conditions move in for Memorial Day weekend with more summer like temperatures as well An upper-level low will be moving eastward out of the south-central plains into the mid-Mississippi valley during the day on Thursday which will keep widespread rain chances in play for the remainder of the work week. Forecast guidance continues to indicate that the upper low is expected to move through central Illinois during the day on Thursday with some uncertainty remaining in the exact timing. Regardless, the expected track of the low will put northeastern Illinois and northwest Indiana along the northern side of the low which will allow the southerly flow on the leading edge to advect warm moist air into the region and set the stage for widespread showers and a few isolated thunderstorms on Thursday and lingering showers on Friday. Forecast soundings during the day on Thursday continue to show that the overall instability to be rather limited with only a few hundred J/kg expected across most of the area. This weak instability and the poor wind profiles should limit the organization of any storms that do manage to develop and keep them below severe limits. However, given the added vorticity due to the upper-level low`s proximity and a weak surface low moving overhead there is the potential for a couple of funnel clouds and/or landspouts Thursday afternoon. The best environment for this funnel potential looks to be confined to areas closer to the upper low where better 0-3 km CAPE around 100 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates come together which would favor areas south of I-55, but should the low track slightly farther north that potential would also move north. The low will begin to clear the area late in the day on Friday which will allow rain chances to gradually diminish throughout the day on Friday. A broad ridge of high pressure will move in behind the low for our Memorial day weekend which will send temperatures warming into the upper 80s by Monday. While the majority of the weekend should be dry there is the potential for a couple of showers and/or thunderstorms to develop along the western periphery of the ridge late in the day on Sunday and Monday. There is some uncertainty in whether or not these showers/storms will be able to materialize, but I have maintained the mention for a slight chance of showers across portions of northern Illinois where the western edge of the ridge is forecast to set up. These conditions are expected to continue into the beginning of next week. Yack && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Aviation weather concerns for the 00Z TAFs: * Easterly winds with gusts up to 20kt veering southeasterly late Wednesday morning. * Spotty showers in northwestern sites this evening. * Showers Wednesday morning lowering ceilings to MVFR, with some heavier showers lowering down to IFR. LIFR conditions may develop. * Chance for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Northeasterly to easterly winds will prevail throughout tonight as high pressure moves off to the northeast, and a surface low slowly drifts over Kansas. Winds will remain a bit gusty overnight as the pressure gradient tightens with the approaching low. An area of isolated showers has developed between and southwest of KRFD and KDPA, moving towards the northeast, and may briefly bring precipitation to these terminals this evening. Winds will veer overnight, becoming east-southeasterly Wednesday morning. A warm front is expected to move through the area Wednesday morning, bringing isolated showers initially, then more widespread showers by mid-morning. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR with the onset of showers, with periods of IFR ceilings in heavier showers. There is a chance for conditions to drop to LIFR (below 500 ft) in heavier showers. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the afternoon into the early evening over most sites, generally moving from the southwest to the northeast. Models indicate that there will be a break in precipitation around 00Z Wednesday evening, but this will depend on the location of the warm front, with showers possibly still occurring Wednesday evening if the warm front remains over the forecast area. BKL && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor until 9 PM Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ741-LMZ742 until 4 PM Wednesday. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
453 PM PDT Tue May 24 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions continue this afternoon with near-critical fire conditions in the North Bay Interior Mountains and the East Bay Hills. Widespread 90s are forecast for the interior today and again on Wednesday. Cooling trend starts on Thursday. Chances for rain should stay just north of Sonoma County on Saturday. Otherwise the forecast for the holiday weekend looks rather pleasant. && of 02:10 PM PDT Tuesday...High pressure centered over the Eastern Pacific Ocean is bringing clear and sunny skies to California. With ample sunshine heating the surface coupled with a warming airmass aloft, we are seeing notably warm temperatures across the CWA. The airmass aloft is forecast to peak at 20-22 degrees C at the 850 mb level (for reference, average 850 mb temps based on climatology is closer to 16 degrees C for this time of year). At noon, Santa Rosa had already reached 91 degrees while Livermore hit 90. Between noon and 1 pm, many more sites bumped up into the low 90s: Concord, Novato, Hollister, Scott`s Valley, Pinnacles Natl Park, Carmel Valley, Fort Hunter Liggett. We are still on track for highs this afternoon to peak in the mid to upper 90s for many of our interior sites. Closer to the coast, winds remain onshore and our coastal residents won`t be dealing with 90s, but rather stay in the upper 60s to 70s. So if you`re living in the interior and need a reprieve from the heat, the coast may feel more comfortable to you. As for winds, we`re still seeing N to NE offshore winds in the interior North Bay & East Bay hills, but gusts have lessened since this morning (up to 40 mph) to 20-30 mph this afternoon. We continue to headline the near-critical fire weather conditions in our Fire Weather Forecast due to the warm and dry conditions with offshore winds. The main mitigating factor as to why we are not in a Red Flag Warning is that the heavier fuels are not completely cured, yet. The grasses are dry/cured and can easily burn as we`ve seen small grass fires pop up across our CWA. However, these smaller grass fires tend to be more easily contained. The thicker brush and trees are not completely cured, but are starting to show signs of stress. We`ll be monitoring those heavier fuels after this heat event since they are approaching minimum moisture levels. As we get into tomorrow, conditions will be similar to today except for 2 factors: 1) The offshore winds across the interior North Bay and East Bay Hills will not be as strong and will actually peak in the overnight hours into early Wednesday morning instead of blowing during the dry part of the day 2) We are expecting a Southerly Surge (marine stratus surging northward along the Big Sur coast and towards the Bay Area). If you`re in the interior areas of our CWA, you`ll notice similar heat as today if not a degree or two warmer, but it won`t be as windy in the hills. For coastal areas, that southerly surge is forecast by our local WRF and HRRR to move up the CA coast overnight tonight and should be rounding the bend into the Monterey Bay between 12-15z which is between 5-8 am local time. Some light southwesterly winds may reach up towards the SF Bay, but unsure if the stratus will actually extend that far north. In this southerly surge, it`ll be likely that the stratus could hit the Santa Cruz area first before filling into the rest of the Monterey Bay. So if you live near Santa Cruz or along the Big Sur coast, then expect cloudier skies tomorrow. Moving into the second half of the week, we will feel a noticeable cooling trend with increasing humidity. For example, on Thursday afternoon, most places will have about a 10-15 degree drop in max temps. Livermore will go from 96 Wednesday to 83 on Thursday. Santa Rosa will go from 93 to 76. So expect much more seasonable temperatures for the rest of the week as onshore winds dominate our weather pattern. This cooling trend is due to an upper level low weakening that high pressure system on Thursday as it moves into the Pac NW and NorCal. This large broad trough is expected to linger in the area into the weekend and early next week. Although most of the rain associated with this low will stay well north of our CWA, some of the extended models are hinting that a bit of light rain could brush far northern Sonoma county on Saturday and the NBM reflects this in our forecast. && of 4:44 PM PDT Tuesday...For the 00Z TAFs. VFR through the TAF period for all but the Monterey Bay, which will see a push of Fog and LIFR CIGs early Wednesday. Winds will become light to moderate in the evening and overnight. Winds aloft over the North Bay look to remain strong, causing concerns for LLWS in the late night for APC. Lower clouds will move inland from the south around the Monterey Bay in the late night. Wednesday offers VFR region- wide into the afternoon with light to moderate winds. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds will stay moderate through the evening. Late night winds become light and variable and these weakened winds will last well into the morning Moderate westerly winds return around the midday Wednesday and look to last through that evening. KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay...VFR with moderate winds into the night. Winds will reduce and become lighter overnight. Stratus begins to move in from the South and build in the Monterey Bay after wrapping around the peninsula. The stratus and fog will mostly stay over the bay overnight, but looks to filter into the Salinas Vally early Wednesday morning. This will cause LIFR at SNS. Expect VFR to return in the mid morning. && .FIRE of 03:00 AM PDT Tuesday...Elevated fire weather concerns are expected on Tuesday due to above average temperatures, offshore winds and critically low relative humidity. Strong offshore wind gusts are forecast over the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Critically low humidity readings are expected across the interior with single digit to low teens and little to no recovery Tuesday night into Wednesday. A southerly surge is looking more likely on Wednesday ushering in much cooler temperatures and higher humidity. This will first occur near the coastline and then spread inland by Wednesday night diminishing fire weather concerns. Remember: one less spark, one less fire! && of 04:52 PM PDT Tuesday...Expect northwest winds to continue to be gusty with the strongest in the northern outer waters and coastal jets to the south of the prominent points. Steep wind waves around 10 to 12 feet with a period of 8 to 10 seconds possible through tonight. However, winds will start to diminish Wednesday morning. This will help to improve the sea state, bringing wave heights down to 6 to 8 feet. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Bingaman AVIATION: Murdock MARINE: Murdock Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1007 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 .UPDATE... Tone down some of the weather in several zones for the overnight. && .SHORT TERM.../Tonight/ A good day for abating the severe threat for our area with a second sea breeze now lifting over SW AR and NE LA. Associated thunderstorm outflow has bumped up a few more showers for the SHV/BO metro area and of course the huge synoptic trough is still on approach. However, the SPC has a SVR watch on our door step into the wee hours of 3am, indicating that we have been toned down from what this event could have been if we were somewhat more discrete hanging on to heat, than the nice sea breeze linear pushes working our area over. A new watch may still finish the overnight hours if a good LLJ can feed this expected line of convection as still a Slight Risk on the updated day one. Most gusts off the Gulf with heating are in the 30-40 mph range and have been. However, Longview did see 50KT gust on the first wave. This second is still looking healthy oded to the long wave Westerlies push on approach, but it will soon push out. We will keep an eye out for the development in E TX, but much of our energy has already been spent. Flooding may yet be our worse to come for the overnight with no changes to our Flash Flood Watch in progress as the HRRR and NAM both show a nice line yet to come overnight and into the early morning hours. /24/ .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 725 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022/ AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex terminals, we had a hearty sea breeze early, w/ a large synoptic Westerlies trough still on approach, which has done well to lower our CAPE. However, a 2nd sea breeze is underway and will stay E of KLFK, but could affect our LA I-20 sites if it can hold together after sunset. Otherwise, the models have been playing catch up on our next good soaking overnight, but w/ a good low level jet and due S aloft throughout the column, a good feeding of a dvlpg SQ line out of TX remains possible. So timing may be off a few hrs in the wake of our aftn downpours. SFC winds are 5-15KT from SE for most and will be shifting to SW and W during Thurs. /24/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Active weather conditions will continue across the Ark-La-Tex through the next 36 hours, starting with the second round of thunderstorms (some of which could be severe) arriving late tonight ahead of a cold front that will proceed eastward across North Texas and the Red River Valley. Uncertainty remains with the intensity of these storms within high-resolution/CAM guidance after the first round of storms expends some of the available energy in the atmosphere. While the level of convection depends on how atmospheric energy recharges, there is more certainty on the storm mode taking the form of a line, boosting the threat of damaging winds. Forecast soundings indicate more low-level shear being available overnight with SRH over 200 m2/s2, which also means that the threat of isolated tornadoes embedded within the line cannot be ruled out. Overall, the overnight severe weather threat primarily includes damaging winds with an elevated risk of isolated tornadoes. Minimum temperatures will fall towards the mid-to-upper 60s, with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected in addition to the rain that fell this afternoon. Impacts will evolve to flash flooding in the early morning hours, especially with isolated 2+ inch amounts in certain areas, however, drier antecedent soils are expected to benefit from this rainfall, keeping a more serious flooding event from occurring. By Wednesday morning, the frontal boundary will begin to enter our western zones, gradually clearing the Ark-La-Tex after sunset. Moist surfaces and cloud cover will moderate afternoon maximum temperatures into the mid-to-upper 70s area wide, while southerly winds gradually gain a southwesterly component with frontal passage. Cloud cover, and the 60-degree isodrosotherm, will recede eastward by Wednesday night, allowing minimum temperatures ranging in the lower 50s to lower 60s, well below normal for this time of the year. /16/ LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday Night/ Starting 12z Thursday (Thursday Morning)...Upper level pattern as we move into the long term portion of the forecast period features a closed low centered near the Oklahoma/Arkansas/Kansas/Missouri borders. Given it`s location, we could see some wrap around moisture around the low across portions of our northern zones, so I have maintained some low end PoPs for areas generally north of I-30 through the day Thursday. The upper level low will gradually push eastward to the Kentucky/Tennessee state lines by Thursday night/Friday morning. This will bring an end to the precipitation across our area through the remainder of the weekend. Post frontal airmass will keep temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees below seasonable normals on Thursday with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 70s across our northern zones to lower 80s across our southern zones. Temperatures will then remain below seasonable normals through Friday night, with lows ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s for Thursday and Friday night and highs on Friday ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. You may have picked up on the trend from Thursday to Friday with temperatures slightly warmer on Friday than on Thursday. This trend will continue on Saturday and Sunday with afternoon highs returning to the lower 90s across the region on Sunday. This warming trend is due to a building ridge across the southwest CONUS that will move into our region over the weekend and into the start of next week. As we move into Monday and Tuesday of next week, we could see a return of some precipitation, but models have some disagreement, as they often do with forecasts that far out, so have just maintained the low NBM PoPs that were given to me for day 7 and beyond. Otherwise, most of the long term period should feature dry conditions with increasing temperatures. Temperatures will then remain below seasonable normals through Friday night. /33/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 66 79 59 79 / 80 70 30 10 MLU 68 80 62 79 / 60 90 70 10 DEQ 63 77 54 73 / 90 60 20 10 TXK 66 77 58 74 / 90 60 20 10 ELD 64 78 57 75 / 80 80 40 10 TYR 64 77 57 80 / 90 30 10 0 GGG 64 77 56 79 / 90 50 10 10 LFK 65 79 58 82 / 90 70 20 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ077. TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ 24/16/33