Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/23/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
539 PM MDT Sun May 22 2022
...Update for 00Z TAF Cycle...
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected to prevail through forecast period. SSE
surface winds tonight, under west flow aloft. Winds 090-180 at
06-10KT, shifting back to the west 210-250 at 10-15KT tomorrow
afternoon. Skies SCT-BKN200 due to broad lifting ahead of a weak
trough, clearing slightly after midnight. No smoke impacts
expected at KTCS tonight due to up-valley flow, but visibility and
smoke aloft concerns will continue for central NM tomorrow.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...237 PM MDT Sun May 22 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
It will be warm dry week with a steady westerly flow for the
first part of the week, followed by high pressure toward the end
of the week. Skies overall will be clear with breezy west winds
diminishing toward the end of the week. Temperatures will start
the week slightly above normal the first half, but will climb to
well above normal toward week`s end with 100 degree afternoon
highs expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
Piece of energy that is responsible for the cloud cover today
will continue to move east into the evening and overnight.
Additionally, a moist airmass, denoted by dewpoints near 50
degrees will creep into northern Mexico, southwest of the southern
portions of the RGV (Sierra Blanca, Fort Hancock, Indian Hot
Springs). Instability will increase and with the combination of
terrain and the little perturbation moving east, a few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across Hudspeth county and
the Otero Mesa. Guidance shows much of the activity weakening as
it approaches the Border and remaining in Hudspeth county, which
is believable. But, this bears some watching as some RAP soundings
in Hudspeth county show elevated instability and modest to ample
shear for storm organization (although incredible inhibition). Not
predicting this, again the forecast is for iso to scattered
showers and decaying thunderstorms moving over Hudspeth county and
vicinity. Temps will be near to a little above normal during the
overnight hrs will largely light winds.
Marginal moisture tries to hang on Monday afternoon as dewpoints
remain near 40 degrees east of the Rio Grande (mainly Hudspeth
county and maybe the Sacs. As a result, a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible in this area, at least enough for
10- 20 POPs. Overall, most likely areas to see storms would be the
far east/northeast portions of the Sacs and east to southeast
Hudspeth county. Otherwise, winds will pick up into the breezy
category by the late afternoon thanks to a lee cyclone just to the
north of the warning area. Additionally, temps will be near 90
degrees across the lowlands and 60s above 8000 ft.
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday Night through Saturday...
The long term outlook for the region is to remain very dry with
warm temperatures progressing to hot conditions toward week`s end.
On Monday the Borderland will be at the base of a long wave
trough that is straddling the country. This will maintain a steady
westerly to northwesterly flow over the region that will keep
moisture away from the region and will lead to breezy to windy
conditions in the afternoon Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will
hover near to slightly above normal under mostly sunny skies.
Wednesday will be a transition day with the axis of the now deep
trough shifting to the middle of the country, while high pressure
begins to build over the desert southwest. Skies will be clear
with lighter winds. A cold front will briefly push into the area
and temperatures may cool a couple of degrees, but will still be
near seasonal normals.
For Thursday and Friday, weather in the Borderland will be under
the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure aloft. This
pattern will keep the area dry with generally light winds at the
surface. This pattern will also cause day time temperatures to
rise significantly to well above normal values. Afternoon
temperatures in the upper 90`s to lower 100`s will be common
across the lowlands with 80s and upper 70s expected in the
mountains.
For the Memorial day weekend, Saturday through Monday, the ridge
of high pressure will shift to east and be replaced by a steady
westerly flow aloft. This will keep conditions dry with moisture
pushed out of the area. Skies will remain mostly clear with
afternoon breezy conditions. Temperatures will remain well above
normal with afternoon highs across the lowlands ranging from the
mid 90`s to near 100 degrees.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The only chance for precipitation will be tonight into Monday
with iso showers and thunderstorms across Hudspeth county and the
Sacramento mtns. Otherwise, another period of breezy winds is
expected Monday and Tuesday. West winds 15 to 25 mph Monday, and
more like northwest 20 to 25 mph Tuesday. Humidity will be
critical with the exception being the Sacramento mtns and eastern
FWZ056. As a result, a fire weather watch has been issued all
areas except the Sacramento mtns and west Texas. There`s a little
uncertainty in the strength of the winds across these locations,
and so left them out of the watch. Lighter winds expected for
midweek, but the heat increases and consequently humidity plummets
once again, especially Thursday through the weekend. Temps will
be 5 to 15 degrees above average with single digit humidity just
about everywhere outside of the highest elevations of the Sacs.
Ventilation will be excellent Monday and Tuesday, then again to
end the week into the weekend. In-between on Wednesday and
Thursday, expect Good to Very Good.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 62 92 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 57 85 59 86 / 30 20 10 0
Las Cruces 57 91 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 54 89 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 43 65 43 65 / 0 20 10 0
Truth or Consequences 57 90 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 54 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 52 90 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 51 88 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 62 91 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 51 90 53 90 / 20 10 10 0
Fort Hancock 57 93 58 93 / 20 10 0 0
Loma Linda 56 84 58 84 / 10 0 0 0
Fabens 59 93 61 93 / 10 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 57 90 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 60 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 55 87 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 56 89 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 57 90 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 57 90 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 46 78 46 77 / 0 20 20 10
Mescalero 44 76 44 76 / 0 20 20 10
Timberon 47 74 49 74 / 0 20 10 0
Winston 45 83 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 54 85 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 55 88 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 43 82 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 49 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 47 90 41 91 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 38 82 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 51 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 50 90 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 50 89 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 52 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 53 83 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NMZ110>112.
TX...None.
&&
$$
35/04/30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1005 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
The evening sfc analysis reveals that the cold front has just
pushed offshore the SW LA coast, although the front still lingers
across SE LA from just S of BTR to HDC and the Northshore of Lake
Pontchartrain. Meanwhile, the upper air analysis indicates a weak
trough axis still lingering over the Mid MS Valley tailing SW and
bisecting much of LA, with the mosaic radar imagery still
depicting some light elevated returns near this feature, which
suggests that a few sprinkles could be reaching the ground given
the still moist 00Z raob from KSHV. However, radar loops indicate
these elevated returns easing E into NE LA along with this weak
trough axis, and thus slight chance pops will suffice for the Ern
zones through 06Z before we can go popless for the remainder of
the overnight hours areawide. The evening satellite imagery still
indicates an extensive post-frontal stratus/stratocu field that
extends well up into Ern AR, and thus with cold advection expected
to remain weak and radiational cooling non-existent, temps will be
slow falling overnight, only to fall another 3-6 degrees or so
through daybreak. The various MOS guidance appear to be too cool
with min temps, with the previous NBM warmer and more reasonable
in this setup, but did bump mins up another degree or two across
portions of E TX/N LA/SCntrl AR more in line with the latest HRRR
run. In any case, a more comfortable night is expected with weak
dry advection at the sfc, with another day of below normal temps
expected Monday as the post-frontal cloud cover slow to lift. Not
seeing the need for any pops Monday given the weak upper ridging
that will spread overhead from the W, but will allow the mid shift
to remove pops to avoid the flip-flop syndrome as additional 00Z
model data continues to come in. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast is on track.
Zone forecast already out...grids will be available shortly.
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022/
.AVIATION...
A mix of IFR/low MVFR cigs will remain in place this
evening/overnight across much of E TX/SW AR/the I-20 corridor of N
LA, with the current VFR cigs in place across Deep E TX and the
Srn sections of Ncntrl LA expected to become MVFR by mid to late
evening as these cigs develop/spread S into these areas. In fact,
additional IFR cigs are expected to develop/spread SSW across much
of E TX later this evening/overnight, with patchy -DZ possible as
well which may result in reduced vsbys at the E TX terminals. Slow
improvement to cigs are expected by mid and late morning Monday,
with VFR conditions returning to the region by midday through
mid-afternoon within low cu cigs. NNE winds 5-10kts tonight will
become more ENE after 16Z. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 62 81 67 80 / 0 20 50 90
MLU 63 80 67 83 / 20 20 30 90
DEQ 56 76 63 76 / 0 10 60 100
TXK 57 77 65 78 / 0 10 50 90
ELD 57 76 63 79 / 0 10 40 90
TYR 62 79 67 79 / 0 20 70 90
GGG 62 81 66 79 / 0 20 60 90
LFK 66 85 68 82 / 0 20 60 90
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
15