Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/14/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 PM MDT Fri May 13 2022
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Visibility restrictions due to smoke from the Calf Canyon/Hermits
Peak fire continues to be the main concern for the next 24 hours.
Vsby btw 3 and 6 miles will be common at KLVS with cigs around 035.
Smoke will also extend to KTCC tonight, but confidence is low that
there will be vsby restrictions there. Wind speeds on Saturday will
be similar to today, with a few gusts between 20-28kt around KSAF,
KLVS and KFMN in the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...256 PM MDT Fri May 13 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend is underway and will continue through the weekend,
taking high temperatures to near or possibly exceeding daily record
values. Much less winds is forecast over the weekend under the
influence of high pressure, but smoke from area wildfires will
spread out and impact more communities with poor air quality. A weak
backdoor cold front will slide southwest into eastern New Mexico on
Monday bringing moisture for a late day round of isolated showers and
storms, which will produce very little measurable rain and instead
favor gusty winds. Dry conditions with above normal temperatures and
afternoon breezes will persist through next week, with winds picking
up more by Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
Very dry airmass in place will lead to another night of efficient
radiational cooling. Angel Fire Airport made it down to 16F this
morning with low 20s expected in the Moreno Valley Saturday morning.
Prevailing light to moderate west winds near mountain top level are
forecast to keep the smoke from the Calf Canyon and Hermits Peak
fires confined to far southeast Taos, all of Mora and much of San
Miguel and Harding counties through this evening. The far southern
end of Union county could have some visibility and air quality
issues due to near surface smoke as well. 18Z HRRR smoke model run
keeps the smoke somewhat confined to east-central areas late tonight
and early Saturday morning. Light winds will be the rule for
Saturday as heights begin to rise. Temperatures warm as well with
several sites east of the central mountains near their record high
for the date. By Saturday night, enough mid level warming takes
place for "mid-slope" locations to remain relatively warm Saturday
night.
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
The upper level ridge will pump up over the state on Sunday to near
587dam at 500mb, bringing more warming with widespread near record to
record high temperatures. A weak backdoor cold front will slide
southwest into the area Sunday evening, bringing a gusty east
canyon/gap wind into the RGV, as the ridge shifts east and a weak
Pacific trough approaches slowly from the west. The front will bring
sufficient moisture for a daytime heating-triggered round of
convection that will focus across the eastern plains, but may impact
the east slopes of the Sangres De Cristos as well. Moisture will be
very limited, so expect a round of high-based convection that will
likely produce very little measurable rain and instead favor dry
lightning and strong/erratic wind gusts. The 12Z NAM solution is
showing dCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg for Monday afternoon across
eastern NM, which is sufficient to support those strong/erratic wind
gusts. Another weak backdoor front will bring a wind shift and
moisture to northeast NM late Wednesday, with another round of late
day convection possible. Otherwise, fairly light westerlies will
prevail through Thursday with above normal temperatures and
afternoon/evening breezes. The westerlies will be back on the uptrend
Friday with a deepening lee side trough as the next upper level
trough approaches from over the Pacific NW and northern CA. Windy
conditions are likely by Friday, with notable agreement among the 12Z
medium range model solutions on the synoptic pattern in general and
timing of the trough specifically.
33/11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Light winds continue tonight through Sunday but a very dry airmass
will remain in place through Sunday. Localized critical fire weather
conditions are possible across the northern third of NM where
terrain features create stronger wind gusts. Weather prediction
models are trending more favorable with regard to getting Gulf
moisture back into the eastern half or so of the state Monday. The
first backdoor push is forecast to drop into eastern NM Sunday night.
Most models generate isolated convection over far eastern or far
northeast NM along a retreating dryline Monday afternoon. The Gulf
moisture gets scoured out by moderate west and southwest winds
Tuesday with another backdoor front and Gulf moisture push into
eastern NM Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Weather prediction
models are now delaying the next storm system to next weekend. The
models agree on the potential for a significant trough passage and
accompanying backdoor cold front Saturday night into Sunday. Let`s
hope.
33
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
450 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
A weak area of high pressure at the surface was located over
northwest Kansas earlier this afternoon and a cold front extended
from southeast Kansas to the panhandle of Texas. This surface
boundary will move very little tonight and Saturday. Early tonight
there will be a chance for some scattered thunderstorms with all
the models supporting the previous forecast that any storm that
develops near this boundary will be east of Pratt and Medicine
Lodge but if the HRRR verifies it will be close.
It will be another cool night across southwest Kansas with
temperatures falling back into the 50s as the northeast winds
gradually shift to the southeast.
Saturday will be sunny and warmer. Based on the 24hour warming
trend on 850mb temperatures from 00z Saturday to 00z Sunday it
looks like highs Saturday afternoon will range from 85 to 90
degrees. Saturday afternoon a cold front will move into extreme
southern Nebraska or northern Kansas as an upper level
disturbance crosses the Northern Plains. Late day heating and
improving 0-1 forcing along this surface boundary may result in
isolate thunderstorms. If storms do develop then a few may be
strong to marginally severe with the primary hazards being hail
and wind given the 40knot 0-6km shear along with downdraft capes
and mid level lapse rates as they move southeast. Small as it may
be the most favorable area for these storms will be east of a
Wakeeney to Larned line.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Saturday night...If any evening thunderstorms do level they will
end/taper off by midnight with the surface boundary remaining
nearly stationary across North Central Kansas as the southeasterly
flow continues to draw more humid air into southwest Kansas.
Overnight lows will not be as cool as the past few nights with
temperatures falling back mid 50s to lower 60s.
On Sunday the cold front will cross southwest Kansas with a brief
cool down expected, especially east of Dodge City. Highs on
Sunday will range from near 80 across north central Kansas to the
middle 80s across all of southwest Kansas.
A warming trend will begin early next week as the upper level
ridge axis weakens as it moves into the Central and Northern
Plains. Highs rebounding back into the 90s look likely by Tuesday.
There will also be a chance for overnight showers and
thunderstorms, mainly north and east of Dodge City Monday night
and Tuesday night as several upper level waves embedded in the
westerly flow crosses the Central Plains. These better
precipitation chances north and east of Dodge City will be located
near the northern and eastern edge of the warmer mid level
temperatures.
Late week the warm mid level temperatures will build into western
Kansas and this will result in hot and dry conditions Thursday
and Friday. For some areas the highs late week will be approaching
100 degrees. These warm temperatures will be occurring just ahead
of the next cold front and if the models are correct this next
cold front will bring a decent shot of cooler air back to
southwest Kansas by the start of next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 445 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Saturday. Light east-southeasterly winds are expected to
continue through early Saturday as surface high pressure shifts
slowly east across the Upper Midwest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 86 56 87 / 0 10 10 0
GCK 49 87 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 51 89 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 51 88 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 51 85 54 82 / 0 20 20 10
P28 57 88 60 89 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
636 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Several features are worth noting in the early afternoon regional
surface observation and radar data. The first, which has persisted
through the morning and early afternoon hours, is an area of
shower/thundershower activity extending east-southeast from Terrell
County into the Quemado-Eagle Pass vicinity. Convective in nature,
this activity is a byproduct of steep mid-level lapse rates, as well
as dynamic forcing provided by the left exit region of a weak
subtropical jet streak currently impinging upon the Rio Grande
Plains. Said jet streak has pivoted to the immediate south of the
current location of the shower activity per recent RAP analyses,
suggesting that outflow from more intense convection occurring this
morning is responsible for its continued persistence. Downward
trends have been observed over the last several hours, and are
expected to continue through the near term as the precipitation
moves into an environment characterized by smaller precipitable
water values along and east of the US 83 corridor.
The other noteworthy feature in the 18Z observational data is the
dryline, which has acquired a wavy northeast-southwest orientation
across the state. Sharpest in definition to our north and west, the
boundary currently runs from very near Frederick, OK to Midland,
eventually taking on a more meridional orientation from Fort
Stockton south into the Big Bend and Serranias del Burro Mountains
of Coahuila. Convective initiation is anticipated along the length
of the dryline later this afternoon, as the 12Z suite of CAM
guidance and later runs of the HRRR fire two different areas of
thunderstorm activity by the dinner hour. The first appears on the
on the Burros, and considerable uncertainty regarding the eastern
extent of its coverage remains due to 1) a large component of the
predicted storm motion vectors being parallel to the Rio Grande
River and 2) residual cloud debris and cool surface temperatures
present in the wake of this morning`s showers and thunderstorms
across the Rio Grande Plains. Both of the aforementioned factors
will present considerable challenges to any storms that attempt to
make a run at the river this evening, and likely help to explain the
general weakening trend that has been exhibited over the last
several convection forecasts in the HRRR. Nevertheless, the low
probability scenario of a storm surviving to the international
border has been accounted for in this evening`s weather grids across
portions of the Rio Grande Plains. A stronger storm remains
possible, particularly across Val Verde County, with large hail and
damaging winds being the primary hazards. An additional region of
convection will likely materialize over portions of the Edwards
Plateau, and could sneak into portions of Hill Country this evening
as it weakens in the stabilizing boundary layer. This has also been
accounted for in the late afternoon/early evening weather grids, and
severe weather is not anticipated.
Quiet and mild conditions are expected overnight tonight, with lows
ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s across the region. Lowest
temps will be across portions of Hill Country, as well as low-lying
areas to the east of Interstate 35. Similar to the last several
nights, low clouds will build in, particularly along and east of US
281, following the midnight hour. Not anticipated to be widespread
in coverage, patchy fog will also be possible across portions of
DeWitt, Fayette, and Lavaca Counties near daybreak. Similar to
today, low clouds and fog will rapidly begin to mix out after the
sun rises tomorrow morning.
Another warm and likely dry day is in store for Saturday. Temps
should once again top out in the 90s areawide, with an isolated
station in the Winter Garden Region potentially approaching the
century mark by the end of the day. "Likely" is the operative word
in tomorrow`s dry forecast, due to the fact that a couple members of
the 12Z CAM suite want to initiate isolated to widely scattered
convection across portions of Hill Country and the I-35 corridor
during the afternoon hours. While unlikely, the upper air pattern
will be transitioning to a predominantly northwesterly state as
subtropical ridging builds into the Four Corners Region, which
climatologically can favor scenarios in which storms overperform
relative to the forecasts put forth by the high res guidance. Have
thus introduced an area of 15% PoP and slight chance mentions of
thunderstorms across portions of Hill Country and the I-35 corridor
during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Any storms that
potentially develop will rapidly weaken following sunset and the
loss of surface heating.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Southerly flow will be continuing across the area on Sunday for the
beginning of the long-term forecast. North flow will be persisting
aloft on Sunday but ridging will be beginning to move back over the
area. This should ensure a dry forecast on Sunday with high
temperatures poking back into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. This
warming trend is expected to continue with the high temperatures
remaining persistent.
Lows will initially be in the 60s to near 70 at the beginning of the
long-term but with the persistent heat, should see these creep up as
well into the lower to middle 70s for most of the area by the end of
the period. Moisture values will remain low through the period which
should keep rain chances minimal. A couple of weak disturbances
could move in closer to Wednesday/Thursday to provide some lift, but
overall chances to actually include the mention of PoPs in the
forecast was too low.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
ISOLD elevated -SHRA will dissipate prior to reaching KDRT and
remain southwest of KSAT/KSSF keeping any mention out of those sites.
There are PROBs for SHRA/TSRA over Central Texas late Saturday
afternoon. However, will keep mention out of KAUS as they are less
than 20. Will monitor radar and model trends for possible later
mention. VFR skies this evening turn MVFR at the I-35 sites early
overnight while KDRT may see a TEMPO MVFR CIG early Saturday morning.
CIGs lift and mix to FEW-SCT VFR mid to late morning and prevail
through evening on Saturday. S to SE winds 9 to 14 KTs decrease to 5
to 9 KTs later this evening, then increase to 9 to 16 KTs with a few
gusts to 24 KTs on Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 71 96 70 97 / 10 20 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 94 66 97 / 0 20 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 67 93 64 97 / 0 10 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 67 95 67 99 / 10 20 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 72 98 72 100 / 20 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 70 94 69 97 / 10 20 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 69 96 66 100 / 10 10 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 69 94 67 97 / 0 10 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 95 69 96 / 0 10 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 72 95 70 97 / 0 10 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 69 97 68 99 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...04
Long-Term...05
Aviation...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
SE winds will become light and variable overnight, with patchy fog
developing across the region. This patchy fog will bring periods
of MVFR to IFR visibility for parts of SE Texas, particularly for
KCXO and KLBX. Periods of MVFR CIGS will be possible with this
fog, though high res models indicate these lower clouds will be
mostly SCT. Fog will burn off and low CIGS will scatter Saturday
morning. Light SSW winds in the morning will back to the S/SSE by
Saturday evening.
03
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 303 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday Night]...
Scattered clouds across the region this afternoon with a s/w moving
by to the north with some virga. Upper low near the Georgia coast
will be meandering west this evening and that will intrude the upper
level northerly flow into LA/TX border area. Already an active zone
of deep convection along the MS/LA border with a weak surface
trough. The convection will likely spread south and southwest and
many of the recent short term models have had solutions that do so
but some have trended further east and others mainly the HRRR show a
diurnal pattern of convection that may eventually spread WSW/SW into
the far eastern or northeastern areas of the CWA with daytime
heating Saturday. Confidence is fairly low of the storms being able
to overcome the strong inversion present over SETX. As the upper low
over GA lifts northeast Saturday lingering troughiness remains over
the northeast Gulf and the subtropical speedmax AZ-NM/Mex border
propagates southeastward and into the Gulf...this will add some weak
lift (probably just an increase in cirrus/high clouds) to the
equation on top of the southwest sagging outflow boundary from the
LA storms Saturday afternoon. So don`t expect the storms to get
here/or over the Upper TX coastal waters but it is possible. 850mb
ridging/heights do build slightly over SETX Saturday but will
probably only translate to about a degree warmer over most of the
region Saturday...perhaps the western areas (CLL-66R) may be 2
degrees warmer.
With 850 ridging in place the next few evenings expect quiet weather
with light winds and following a more diurnal pattern of winds
relaxing becoming SW in the morning then backing to the S and SE in
the afternoon and increasing. Some patchy fog will be possible over
the more rural areas Saturday morning after 1 am with the slightly
more moist air that is streaming over the area.
45
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Mid level ridging increases on Sunday and will remain overhead
through mid week next week, leading to a persistent forecast.
Daytime highs will reach the mid to upper 90s while overnight lows
dip down into the 70s. By Wednesday, mid level ridging becomes
more zonal and a few shortwaves pass through Oklahoma and Texas
through the remainder of the work week. Unfortunately, it still
looks like most of the rain will stay north of our CWA. Therefore,
temperatures will remain the same, but wind speeds will increase
to a moderate to fresh onshore flow as the local pressure gradient
tightens from these passing shortwaves.
Lenninger
.MARINE...
Light to moderate south and southwest winds will persist through
the weekend and into next week. Little to no rain expected as we
remain under a broad high pressure. Winds could approach close to
Caution criteria today and early next week.
Lenninger
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 94 69 95 69 / 0 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 93 71 94 72 / 0 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 87 77 88 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Brokamp
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THE NEXT 7 DAYS:
* Thunderstorm chances this afternoon-evening generally southeast
quarter of Kansas.
* Isolated storm chances Saturday afternoon-evening generally
along/west of I-135.
* Storm chances late Saturday night-Sunday northern into eastern
Kansas.
* Periodic off-and-on storm chances Monday night through next week.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...Latest observational analysis in tandem
with short- term hi-res guidance supports the potential for
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon-evening,
mainly across south-central Kansas along/west of the Flint Hills,
with these chances possibly spreading into southeast Kansas later
this evening and tonight. The primary focus for convective
initiation is a weak/stalled frontal zone draped southwest to
northeast across the area. Overall large-scale forcing is
relatively weak, and possibly even slightly subsident in wake of
upper shortwave axis shifting just east of the area. So not
entirely confident on coverage of storms or their ability to
sustain themselves. However, if storms are able to form and
sustain themselves (as the latest deterministic HRRR and WoFS
suggests), a favorable combination of instability and effective
deep layer shear would favor large hail and damaging winds with
the strongest activity.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm
late Saturday afternoon- evening, mainly along/west of I-135, as
a stalling cold- frontal zone attempts to ooze in from the north.
Forcing remains quite weak and instability will probably be less
than today, so suspect chances will be fairly low for most.
However, if a storm is able to develop and sustain itself, large
hail and damaging winds will be possible, mainly due to the decent
deep layer directional shear.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...Thinking higher chances for thunderstorms
will be late Saturday night into Sunday, as the synoptic setup
appears to favor a forward-propagating thunderstorm complex moving
southeast across Nebraska, and into northern/northeast Kansas,
and possibly eventually into eastern Kansas, which could just
barely clip east/northeast portions of the forecast area. The
primary threats with this storm complex would be damaging winds.
If this storm complex lays out a big outflow boundary, it will
likely drive the synoptic front south fairly fast and end
additional storm chances by peak heating Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
After relatively quiet weather Sunday evening through Monday,
global model consensus supports periodic off-and-on storm chances
Monday night or Tuesday, through mid to late next week, as a pair
of shortwaves traverses Mid-America, and the frontal zone lifts
back north across the forecast area. Best storm chances during
this period will likely be during the late afternoon-evening
through early morning time. While instability should be sufficient
for stout updrafts, overall mid-upper flow and associated deep
layer shear will likely be modest at best. Consequently, while a
handful of strong to severe storms are possible during this
period, the threat for widespread and/or higher-end severe
weather appears low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
VFR conditions are generally expected for this TAF period. There
is a slight chance for some thunderstorm activity at the KHUT,
KICT and KCNU terminals but the current dynamics are highly
"mixed" making the certainty of thunderstorms at these terminals
difficult at best. Currently, the areal coverage of any activity
this evening seems rather low at this time so kept the thunder out
of the TAFs for now. KCNU has the best chance for some
precipitation but pulled back the thunder possibilities to showers
only as there may not be enough push to get thunder going. By
morning, VFR conditions will reign with light winds for the
remainder of the TAF period.
Metzger
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 59 87 62 86 / 30 10 20 30
Hutchinson 56 87 60 84 / 20 20 20 20
Newton 57 86 60 84 / 30 10 20 30
ElDorado 59 86 61 85 / 30 0 10 40
Winfield-KWLD 60 87 62 88 / 30 0 20 30
Russell 52 86 56 83 / 0 20 20 10
Great Bend 53 86 58 84 / 0 20 20 10
Salina 54 88 58 84 / 10 20 20 30
McPherson 55 86 59 83 / 20 20 20 30
Coffeyville 62 87 62 87 / 30 0 10 40
Chanute 62 86 62 85 / 30 0 10 40
Iola 61 85 60 83 / 30 0 20 40
Parsons-KPPF 62 87 62 86 / 30 0 10 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...ELM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1106 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 811 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022
On the synoptic scale this evening, a retrograding upper low at
lower latitudes will continue to weaken and have less influence on
our weather. Thin cirrus is observed in visible satellite and
also visually upon stepping outside. Light southeasterly winds
will veer slightly toward morning and may briefly become variable
or calm in a few locations. This may enhance the radiative process
and result in lows a couple degrees colder than model blends.
Similar conditions last night yielded low temperatures that was
near the 25th percentile of models. Thus, we will lower overnight
temperatures by a degree or two from the previous forecast.
Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape.
A shortwave trough will lift north-northeastward into Manitoba
tonight into tomorrow. Its surface cold front is focusing convection
this evening over western Illinois into central Missouri, but given
the trajectory of the upper low, only a gradual eastward nudge is
expected, along with frotolysis through tomorrow. There is a
narrow ribbon of deeper moisture that will accompany the front and
the overall thermodynamic environment over central Indiana will
become moderately unstable by afternoon. Despite the boundary
being weakly baroclinic at best, it should provide enough
convergence for convective initiation tomorrow afternoon across
the area. There may be a zone where convection is initially fairly
concentrated but model surface pressure patterns are quite
nebulous and streamline/convergence placement varies enough in
the latest models to not have much clarity yet. There is loose
consensus signal for early concentration from near Kokomo to the
west sides of Indianapolis metro. We won`t make substantial
adjustments to the forecast yet, but will trend probability
gradients slightly this evening based on this signal in hi-res
model guidance.
As far as convective hazards, the degree of instability, largely
driven by a moist PBL beneath steep lapse rates in the ~1-3-km range
yielding enhanced theta-e lapse rates will support robust downdrafts
and expanding cold pools from short-lived updrafts. Individual
cell longevity will be limited given weak tropospheric flow and
insufficient deep layer shear for cell sustenance. The most
intense cells will be capable of brief strong/damaging wind gusts,
and perhaps some hail given the magnitude of instability, but any
hail should be marginally severe at best and relegated to only
the most intense cells. Lightning and brief heavy rain will also
accompany convective cells. The thunderstorms may tend to merge
along cold pool interactions and could tend propagate seemingly
haphazardly southwestward by very late afternoon or early evening
into modest low-level flow where convergence along evolving cold
pools will be greatest. Some of the CAMs support this.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022
* Dry tonight
* Shower and storm chances on Saturday afternoon and early evening
Surface analysis this afternoon shows strong high pressure in place
over the northeastern states...extending SW into the Ohio Valley.
This was resulting in warm but dry southerly surface flow across
Indiana. Aloft...water vapor continued to show showed strong high
pressure in place aloft from New England across Indiana to IL. This
continued to provide subsidence across Central Indiana. Dew point
temps have recovered to the upper 50s. The ridge of high pressure
aloft was keeping any TSRA over the plains from making any progress
east and the upper steering flow was pushing any storms toward
Ontario. Water vapor showed a boundary over MO/IA/KS where storms
were forming between the high dominating Indiana`s weather and deep
low pressure over the northern plains. Water vapor also shows a
broad upper cyclonic circulation over the southeastern states.
Tonight...
Our weather will begin to change tonight. The previously mentioned
upper low over the southeastern states is expected retrograde north
and east. This will begin to break down the upper ridging that has
been so persistent through the course of this past week. Although
this change will be occurring...it will not be nearly noticeable
within the sensible weather overnight. Forecast soundings and time
heights continue to show a dry column...although subtle moisture
increases are noted. Thus will continue to trend toward mostly clear
and low temperatures near persistence due to little change in the
overall airmass.
Saturday and Saturday Night...
By Saturday morning the previously mentioned upper low will have
broken down the blocking ridge that kept high pressure across
Indiana. Westerly flow is expected to resume aloft...and this will
allow for a weak upper level disturbance to exit the plains and
finally push toward Indiana. This...along with a bit more moisture
within the column and the lack of ongoing subsidence will allow for
convective development during the peak heating afternoon and evening
hours. Forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates on Saturday
afternoon with CAPE over 1700 J/kg and pwats near 1.25 inches. HRRR
also has continued to show trends toward sct showers/storms during
the afternoon. The day should not be a washout...but chances will be
highest during the afternoon and early evening due to the previously
mentioned forcing factors.
After heating is lost on Saturday...forecast soundings show a drying
trend and CAPE is lost. Aloft...Indiana will find itself between
two short wave aloft...the Saturday afternoon departed feature to
the east and another approaching wave within the westerly flow aloft
over the Mississippi Valley. The second wave will be a triggering
feature for Sunday. Thus with little forcing available on Saturday
night...will trend toward a dry forecast after diurnal convection
ends under partly cloudy skies.
&&
.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022
* Thunderstorm potential Sunday evening, a few may be strong
*Additional chances for rain and storms Wednesday and Thursday
*Seasonal temperatures with highs in the 70s to near 80
...Sunday...
Another seasonably warm day on Sunday then a chance of thunderstorms
by Sunday evening ahead of an approaching trough from the northwest.
Slow moving upper low over Central Canada finally begins to track
south and east swinging its associated trough axis through the Ohio
Valley by late Sunday night. Strong diffluent flow aloft and an
approaching 100 kt jet streak rounding the base of the trough will
place the Ohio Valley in an area of modest lift and large scale
ascent. Environment will be conducive for convective development
along and ahead of the approaching surface cold front Sunday
evening/night. Despite weak low level flow and most of the wind
energy and shear located post frontal, mid level southwest flow
increases to 25-35kt ahead of the front, which may be sufficient to
sustain organized thunderstorms and a few discrete cells. Moisture
advection is relatively weak ahead of the front; however dew points
in the mid 50s to low 60s should be sufficient for scattered
convection to develop. Guidance continues to suggest storms may hold
off until around sunset or a few hours, decreasing confidence in
widespread severe weather. Although instability will be waning after
sunset, there should be enough CAPE and wind energy to support some
organized convection along and ahead of the front Sunday night. Long
and relatively straight modeled hodographs suggest the potential for
organized lines and possibly discrete cells with damaging winds and
hail being the main threats. Not so concerned with the tornado
threat as low level flow remains very weak; however will not rule
out the possibility of one. Overall confidence is moderate for the
Sunday evening/night thunderstorm threat. By tomorrow when short
term hi-res models and CAMS can see the event, confidence will
increase regarding finer forecast details and severe weather
parameters.
Overall, Sunday should be fairly nice during the day with highs
approaching the lower 80s across Central Indiana. Clouds begin to
increase late afternoon as mid and upper level moisture increases
ahead of the front.
...Monday and Tuesday...
Northwest flow pattern sets up for much of next week as the
aforementioned upper trough settles over Southeast Canada and weak
ridging builds over the northern Plains. Surface cold front passes
through early Monday morning with a surface high dropping southward
over the region. Subsidence aloft and dry air advection during this
time should keep significant precipitation chances away from Central
Indiana, at least through Tuesday night. Low clouds may linger
Monday morning as subsidence traps moisture near the surface;
however expect clouds to lift and dissipate by Monday afternoon.
Much cooler air filters in aloft as the incoming airmass from Canada
resided over Indiana. 850mb temperatures drop from around 15C on
Sunday to around 9C Monday and Tuesday. Expect highs to rebound to
seasonal norms in the 70s with a gradient from NE to SW across
Central Indiana.
...Wednesday and Thursday...
Benign conditions don`t last as active weather ramps up midweek
ahead of another developing low in the Plains. A warm front forms
and stretches from the Central Plains low to the Ohio Valley. This
front is expected to slowly oscillate through the region Wednesday
and Thursday before surging north by the end of the week. As the
boundary lays across the region, weak impulses riding along it in
the mid level flow will increase lift leading to complexes of
showers and thunderstorms. Confidence remains low on exact details
on timing, placement, and strength of these features; however
confidence is increasing in a wetter pattern developing during this
timeframe. Keeping chance wording for PoPs both of these days until
confidence increases on exact timing and location. Will have to
watch this period for both flooding and severe weather potential
depending on where the warm front sets up.
North of the front expect seasonal temperatures in the 70s while
temperatures soar into the 80s south of the front. Expect a warming
trend closer to the end of the week once the warm front surges north
leading to above normal highs well into the 80s closer to the
weekend.
&&
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1105 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022
IMPACTS:
* Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon.
* Periods of light/variable winds through the TAF period.
DISCUSSION:
We highlighted the predominant expected wind direction, but periods
of light and variable winds are possible through the early morning
before more consistent (albeit still light) winds occur during the
morning. Winds may also experience some deviation from the forecast
in or near convection Saturday afternoon, with a low confidence wind
direction forecast immediately in the wake of convection. The
synoptic flow is weak and cold pools from convection will largely
drive the low-level flow during and just after the convective cycle.
The most concentrated corridor of convection is likely between LAF
and IND initially, with weak flow and weak shear supporting chaotic
cold pool behavior and subsequent convective development. Thus, the
window indicated in the TAF represents the most likely time for
impact of the given terminal. Convective hazards will primarily be
lightning and brief strong winds.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...BRB
Short Term...Puma
Long Term...CM
Aviation...BRB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
744 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Convective area on the decline across the area this evening with
the most active convection over far southwest sections. Have went
with a trend to lower PoPs for the rest of the evening, but
increase from the northwest after midnight as the next convective
system moves in from the north. Already, IR imagery showing these
storms over southeast MO with the HRRR indicating new storm
development over our northwest sections prior to dawn./GG/
Prior discussion below:
Through Saturday: With the weather pattern featuring a large
upper low over the southeast CONUS and an upper ridge to our west
continuing to focus a persistent moisture convergence axis over
the forecast area, we`re seeing another round of strong to severe
storms develop today. As described in previous discussions, these
storms are efficient wind producers as they move into an
anomalously hot boundary layer given steep lapse with low level
lapse rates, and with drier air aloft resulting in DCAPE values
~1000 j/kg. Having said that, it appears the storms are beginning
to run out of instability given the earlier start today, so these
may not persist long into the evening.
With the upper level pattern continuing to support substantial
NNW flow, we`ll maintain some rain chances overnight, and will
also be monitoring for the potential for upstream MCV activity to
initiate a convective system as we go into early Saturday. It is
possible any early morning activity could supply boundary
convergence for development later in the day with heating -
confidence is low in how this scenario will play out, but the
environment may be favorable again for a few downbursts with
damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. /EC/
Saturday night through Friday: The forecast for the long term
period will be a tricky one. The atmospheric pattern will be of a
more summertime like meaning diurnal showers and thunderstorms
will be possible mainly at the beginning of the period.
Large troughing and an area of low pressure just off the MS/AL coast
will help initiate perturbed flow through the ArkLaMiss Saturday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly all day
Saturday and through the evening hours. Troughing will begin to lift
north and by Sunday morning, northwesterly flow will build in and we
will remain dry for much of the day Sunday but can`t rule out a
light shower during the afternoon across the Pine Belt. Mid and
upper level ridging will begin to approach the region from the west
late Sunday night but not before a weak frontal boundary drops in
from the north as the previous mentioned trough continues to pull
north/northeast. The front is expected to stall across our north
late Sunday night and therefore bringing the chance for rain and
thunderstorms mainly north of I-20. While widespread organized
storms aren`t a concern, if we are able to destabilize enough, an
isolated storm or two may become strong to severe with the main
threats being damaging wind gusts and small hail. Will continue to
advertise the Marginal risk across our north.
Showers and a few rolls of thunder may linger into the day Monday
but severe is not anticipated. Under this northwesterly flow regime,
ridging will begin to build back into the region Monday evening. Dry
and hot weather can be expected Tuesday through Friday. While the
north may see some relief from the heat due to the rain Monday,
temperatures will waste no time climbing back into the mid 90s the
following days making next week another hot one! A particular long
range model tries to hint at another weak disturbance pushing across
the area Tuesday however as I stated at the beginnging, this
forecast is a tricky one. While ridging will take place for much of
the extended forecast there could be chances during evening hours
where the ridge flattens just enough for a disturbance to sneak in
and produce a few showers. Other models indicte other wise. Due to
low confidence and spread within the models will continue with the
dry trend Tuesday-Friday./JNE/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion: Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms between GLH, GWO, JAN and HKS will continue to trend
down in coverage and intensity during the evening. Where storms
occur, gusty winds to 40 knots and IFR/MVFR conditions can be
expected. After midnight, MVFR visibilities will develop in areas
of fog around HBG and PIB, but will dissipate shortly after
sunrise. More isolated to scattered convection will be possible
Saturday, mainly during the afternoon./GG/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 66 85 66 90 / 43 73 35 8
Meridian 66 84 65 90 / 17 69 39 11
Vicksburg 67 85 67 92 / 34 57 26 5
Hattiesburg 66 85 66 90 / 24 66 40 19
Natchez 66 85 66 91 / 21 50 21 5
Greenville 69 85 69 91 / 40 47 17 4
Greenwood 68 84 67 89 / 63 55 23 6
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
930 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
.DISCUSSION...00Z upper air analysis places the Mid-South on the
eastern periphery of an upper level ridge axis. Afternoon showers
and thunderstorms triggered by convective temperatures being
reached in a low sheared environment have dissipated across the
Mid-South early this evening. As of 8 PM CDT, temperatures across
the Mid-South are in the lower to middle 70s west of the
Mississippi River and 60s east.
Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms occurring over Southern Missouri. 00Z NAM/18Z GFS
indicate this activity may gradually build southeast into the
Mid-South overnight into Saturday morning across the Mid-South.
Latest Convective Allowing Model solutions are not in agreement
with the overall evolution of upstream overnight convection but
the HiResW-FV3 indicates some consistency with the aforementioned
NAM/GFS solutions.
Showers and thunderstorm chances for the remainder of tonight were
adjusted to reflect a break in convective activity during the
evening hours with a gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms
towards sunrise Saturday. Rain chances were lowered slightly to
account for some uncertainty with the evolution of this
convection.
At this time think any convection overnight should remain sub
severe with less than ideal instability present as the atmosphere
has been worked over across the Mid-South. Will make some further
adjustments to the forecast for the remainder of the night into
Saturday but won`t be significantly different than the early
evening update.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022/
UPDATE...
See the 00z aviation discussion.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022/
DISCUSSION...
A boundary that is marking the division between the humid air (low
70 dewpoints) and the drier air(mid 60s dewpoints) roughly sits
along the Mississippi River at this time. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are developing along this boundary. Damaging winds
and hail have reported with a few of these storms. Small hail just
occurred at the office. The storms haven`t moved much which is
resulting in locally heavy rainfall. Flash flooding will be a
threat for storms that remain stationary.
These storms should begin to diminish by sunset from the loss of
daytime heating. Then expect a lull in activity until possibly
sunrise. The HRRR continues to show convection moving into the
area during the morning and then redevelopment as daytime heating
begins. However, some of the other CAMS don`t really show the
convection moving into the area in the morning, but they do show
development during the day possibly along old outflow boundaries
from today`s convection. Not confident on how it will exactly play
out will keep higher POPS for now.
Still expecting Saturday Night and Sunday to be another lull in
activity. Models are then still consistent with bringing a MCS
into the area Sunday Night into Monday morning ahead of a cold
front. The front will sink through the CWA on Monday. Chances for
some redevelopment of storms is possible over North Mississippi
Monday afternoon.
Drier air will filter into the region behind the front for Monday
Night. However by Tuesday, the upper ridge will begin to build
back into the Mid-South. A warm front will lift northward
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms may occur along the front.
Thereafter chances for convection will likely occur on the
periphery of the upper ridge possibly affecting Northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee.
Overall high temperatures will remain above normal with highs in
the 80s and 90s. The only exception will be Saturday and Monday
where temperatures may be impacted by convection. Lows will drop
into the mid 50s to mid 60s Monday Night thanks to the dry air in
place, but will begin to creep back into the lower 70s by the end
of the forecast period.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/
Diurnal convection should continue to weaken across the Mid-South
with most of the area currently fairly stable. A few storms may
continue for another 1-2 hours, but coverage will be on a downward
trend. We do anticipate additional development tomorrow, though
coverage may not be as great as it was today. Generally VFR
conditions are expected tonight, but patchy fog will be possible
in areas that clear out. We could also see some patchy MVFR
ceilings in the TUP vicinity tomorrow morning, but confidence is
low. Otherwise, expect a few overnight showers mainly from JBR to
MEM and west, generally after 05z.
MJ
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1045 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
- Quieter weather through the middle of next week
Tonight through through Saturday night... We`ve been enjoying much
drier and quieter today, with the cold front bisecting WI and a much
drier southwest wind taking hold for us this afternoon. We`ll have
pretty quiet weather tonight with winds letting up as we loose
mixing.
Satellite imagery and RAP h5 analysis shows a strong shortwave over
central Montana this afternoon. This will move across northern MN
Saturday morning and over Lake Superior in the afternoon. This
shortwave will have an associated cold front at the surface that will
move across the MPX area on Saturday. Precip chances look best over
northern MN Saturday morning where the best vorticity advection will
be ahead of the shortwave. For the afternoon, diurnal destabilization
will lead to a chance for some showers over western WI ahead of the
front, though forecast soundings show deep, well mixed and dry
boundary layers being present, so we may struggle to get more than
virga unless we can get a cell to produce some higher precip rates to
allow rain to make it through the dry air.
Saturday night, this front will push off to the east of our area and
we`ll be left with a seasonably cool night, with lows dropping back
into the 40s with mainly clear skies and light winds.
Sunday through Friday - the long term will be quieter and cooler
through mid-week. A disturbance will pass south on Sunday but I
opted to leave 20 to 30 PoPs in across southern Minnesota due to
some uncertainties in guidance. The pattern then shifts from
northwesterly flow aloft to a zonal flow early next week into mid-
week, which will allow temperatures to return closer to the
climatological normal, with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s and
lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Surface ridging should keep us mostly
dry through midweek, but another pattern shift arrives for the end
of the week as troughing develops over the western CONUS. This should
bring the return of upper 70s to lower 80s and access to better
moisture Thursday and Friday. The 12Z model runs are indicating some
form of a low pressure passing through the Upper Midwest Thursday to
Friday, though model-to-model and run-to-run variability makes
predicting any details on this system a challenge, this could lead to
an uptick in PoPs and the potential for thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration with only
passing FEW/SCT high clouds. Light southerly winds overnight will
then increase to around 15G25kt while veering to a W direction.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15g25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA overnight. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
DISCUSSION...MPG/BPH
AVIATION...JPC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
802 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A trio of Middle Tennessee storm clusters are hanging on
stubbornly as we head into the evening. A few of these storms
prompted Significant Weather Advisories and one Flood Advisory,
but the cells are slowly weakening. The HRRR shows some additional
development overnight, so we`ll definitely keep low chance POP`s
in the grids for that period. Overall, hourly forecast grids are
holding up well, so no changes are planned for now.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Surface ridge has slipped over to our east once
again, and this has allowed for some return flow and moisture
advection into the mid state. Widely scattered convection has
developed in the late afternoon air, although only CSV should be
affected in the next hour or so. More convection is expected
tomorrow afternoon as a weak shortwave enters the mid state.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
625 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Outflow is finally pushing east of the remaining convection over
far southeast Missouri. There has already been some new
development along it, and it could continue to build eastward
into/through southern portions of the Purchase Area. However, at
some point it will run into drier air and we do expect that it
will be done by 6 PM, if not earlier. The stronger cores could
push severe limits with hail and damaging winds.
Looking at tonight through the weekend, the general trend is for
less coverage of convection. This evening should be dry, but an
area of showers and storms will try to push eastward into the
region. It will most likely be dissipating as it does so. Some of
the models do show some development over the eastern half of the
area overnight, so we will have PoPs spreading over the entire
area by daybreak, but they will remain in at chance levels. Meager
instability and weak wind fields should preclude any severe
weather chance.
There is a trend in the guidance for a very weak surface boundary
to try and focus development mainly over the east or southeast
half of the region Saturday afternoon, but much of the morning may
end up dry. We will continue with the lower chance PoPs in the
morning and then jump up to 50% in the afternoon. The HRRR has
consistently showed little to no coverage in our entire area
Saturday afternoon, so we did not want to go with the likely PoPs
of the NBM. Wind fields will remain weak and instability should
not be as stout as it was today over southeast Missouri, so would
expect mainly locally heavy rainfall and lightning concerns.
Saturday night and most of Sunday should be dry as we await the
cold front and associated convection. The consensus of guidance
brings the front and a band of convection southeastward into
southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois late Sunday afternoon
and into the evening. There are some indications that they may be
rather intense entering the region, especially southeast Missouri,
but they will be weakening/dissipating as they move farther into
our region. If the stronger mid/upper-level flow can catch up to
the cold front some strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out as
they enter the area, but they will encounter lesser instability
as they move farther east later into the evening. Whatever is left
will move through the entire area by daybreak Monday.
Temperatures will remain at or above normal through the period.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Drier northwesterly flow aloft will commence over the PAH forecast
area early in the week, bringing in a dome of high surface pressure,
whose effects (a dominant, dry northerly component to the low level
wind) should last through most of Tue, especially for the eastern
half of the region. By then, the flow aloft is progged to become
more zonal, thus this type of pattern is tougher for achieving run-
to-run model agreement with depictions of minor impulses in the
flow. The National Blend of Models suggested that the peak PoPs (40-
50%) for showers and tstms will be in the midweek time frame (mainly
Wed), which seemed plausible at this time.
After Wed, we will be moving toward a more summer-like pattern with
dewpoints climbing from the 50s back into the 60s as a substantial
southwesterly deep flow develops ahead of a probable large scale
trof out in the western CONUS. Showers and tstms are still possible
in our region late next week, but the consensus pcpn signal is
currently not as strong, especially on Fri, as during midweek.
Overall, this will be a rather low-confidence forecast as far as
timing of convection is concerned. However, warmer temps are
expected toward Day 7, with highs climbing back to near 90 and lows
near 70. This will be in contrast with highs in the upper 70s/lower
80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s at the beginning of the
extended forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the evening hours.
A north-south line of showers and storms will progress eastward in
SE Missouri and is more likely to affect KCGI tonight while
impacts at KMVN/KPAH can`t be ruled out. Shower/storm activity
Saturday has greater chances in the afternoon hours at
KEVV/KOWB/KPAH. Some fog is possible at western terminals tonight,
especially KCGI, though cloud cover reduces the chance of falling
to IFR. Winds will be light throughout the TAF period, except for
possible thunderstorm related gusts. Cigs lower to around MVFR
levels tomorrow but coverage is likely to be spotty.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ATL
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...ATL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
950 PM EDT Fri May 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low along the SE US will drift slowly northward over
the region through tonight, and will weaken into an open wave trough
as it lifts northward into the mid-Atlantic Saturday night. Warmer
temperatures will return ahead of a cold front Monday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 PM Friday...
The bulk of the shower activity has come to an end over central NC
as of mid-evening. CINH has also set up with sunset. Another upper
level disturbance to our south currently generating some showers
through the Sandhills south and southeast to the Gulf Stream may
help generate a few more showers over central NC overnight as it rotates
northward. The latest HRRR is not as excited and only suggests isolated
to scattered showers overnight. We will pull POP back a bit to be more
in line with observational data and HRRR trends in reducing POP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Friday...
The mid/upper low will transition to an open wave by Saturday
morning, with the trough axis centered over western NC. The trough
will lift NE across the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and Saturday night,
becoming increasingly flat with time. At the surface, the flow
across central NC will turn southerly as low pressure pulls away and
we become increasingly under the influence of Bermuda high pressure.
This will help warm temperatures to near normal, with highs in the
upper-70s to lower-80s, as they will be moderated by mostly cloudy
skies and at least scattered showers over the region.
Regarding precipitation chances, showers associated with the
mid/upper low will still be moving north across central NC on
Saturday morning before dissipating. For the rest of the day, the
12z CAMS show slightly less coverage compared to previous runs, and
any forcing from the upper low will be east of central NC by the
afternoon, also taking the best/deepest moisture axis with it. Thus
any showers and storms should be mostly driven by diurnal heating
(with MLCAPE as high as ~1000 J/kg) and largely scattered in nature.
The CAMS agree the best chance of convection will be over the
Coastal Plain, where moisture and instability will be greatest and
where a sea breeze is likely to develop. Thus have likely POPs there
and chance elsewhere. Shear and only modest instability mean no
severe storms are expected.
Any showers and storms will quickly dissipate after sunset with a
loss of daytime heating. Low temperatures Saturday night will again
be mild and similar to tonight with higher thicknesses but less
cloud cover, in the lower-to-mid-60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...
An upper level trough will slowly move into the Mid-Atlantic region
Sunday. A more typical summer like pattern is expected Sunday and
Monday with the mornings starting off dry, then scattered showers
and storms developing over the region in the afternoon and evening.
Meanwhile a cold front extending along the Appalachian Mountains
will push through the region Monday night bringing dry weather for
Tuesday and Wednesday. As the surface high moves southeast from the
Great Lakes to the Chesapeake Bay a ridge builds over the Midwest
bringing the next disturbance to the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. Long
range models are not in good agreement for the arrival of the
unsettling weather, so for now just have slight to chance PoPs
Thursday into Thursday night. The shortwave is expected to move
north of the region Friday with minimal chances of rain for Friday.
Temperatures will be above normal all next week with highs in the
mid to upper 80s Sunday and then gradually warming up into the upper
80s low 90s everywhere by the end of the week. Lows will be in the
60s with an exception for Monday night after the cold front moves
through where lows will drop into the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 755 PM Friday...
24 hour TAF period: Multiple rounds of scattered to numerous showers
and storms are expected through the TAF period, accompanied by
reduced cigs and vsbys. Mainly VFR conditions to start the TAF
period will give way to MVFR, then IFR/LIFR cigs through tonight.
Confidence on the timing of the lowest cigs is somewhat low, but
fairly confident all terminals will drop into the 600-1500 ft range
by daybreak, then begin lifting and scattering Saturday morning (in
the absence of convection), possibly to VFR or at least high end
MVFR. Generally light easterly winds will gradually veer around to
southerly by the end of the TAF period. -KC
Looking ahead: Mostly IFR conditions by night and lifting through
MVFR and scattering to VFR by day, along with a chance of diurnal
showers and storms, will persist through Mon. Mainly VFR conditions
are otherwise expected early to mid next week. -MWS
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC/MWS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1048 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
.UPDATE...
A quick update was sent out to account for the latest radar and
temperature trends. POPs were increased slightly north of I-20 to
account for isolated showers moving southward.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 808 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022/
UPDATE...
The latest mid-level analysis indicates a large closed upper low
centered over the Georgia-South Carolina border and extending
across the Southeast and into the mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, a
nearly zonal flow covers much of the central and western U.S.
Locally, the area is on the western periphery of the closed low
with a ridge axis extending from southeast Texas across the
ArkLaTex and into Arkansas. At the surface, a frontal boundary
extends from eastern Arkansas southward across the ArkLaTex into
central Louisiana. Showers and thunderstorms, a few which have
been strong to severe, are beginning to lose their intensity and
decrease in coverage with the loss of heating this evening. To the
west of cloud coverage over the ArkLaMiss, GOES-16 satellite
imagery indicates mostly clear skies westward into East Texas and
the ArkaLaTex. As a result of thunderstorms in central Texas, clouds
are increasing from the west further upstream into central Texas.
Tonight, the closed low across the Southeast will open up into a
mid-level trough. This allow for more a northwesterly mid-level
flow to setup across the area. The GFS/NAM are hinting at a short
wave sliding southeastward toward the area overnight and returning
the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The latest RAP analysis
is not picking up on this feature and more recent runs of the HRRR
are less impressive with developing showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Instability will be in place overnight to fuel
thunderstorms, but the lack of forcing if a short wave does not
pan out will keep us dry. We still cannot completely rule out the
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms with a weak short
wave during the pre-dawn hours for the ArkLaTex and areas to the
northwest. Otherwise, a few isolated showers and storms can be
expected over the ArkLaMiss before diminishing with the loss of
heating.
Temperatures tonight were lowered by around 1-2 degrees across
the area based on recent hourly trends. Lows tonight will range
from the mid 60s in McCurtain County, Oklahoma to the upper 60s to
near 70 across the remainder of the area. /04-Woodrum/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 658 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will mostly prevail across the terminals through
the TAF period. Convection will diminish as it nears El Dorado
and Monroe through 02Z. Confidence is too low in a thunderstorm
developing near the terminals to mention in the TAFs for these
locations, but it cannot completely be ruled out.
Hi-res models are hinting at another area of showers and
thunderstorms weakening as it drops southeastward into the
ArkLaTex around dawn. VCSH is in the forecast for Texarkana,
Shreveport, and Longview as a result. Otherwise, VFR will continue
with light southwesterly winds around 5kts for the terminals on
Saturday. /04-Woodrum/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022/
SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday Night/
A somewhat complex forecast can best characterize the short-term
period with a few noteworthy features that will help to enhance
rain chances over the next 24-36 hours. Looking to our east, we
continue to see convection increasing along a weak sfc boundary
and a 700mb theta-e ridge axis invof of the MS River. As heating
continues through this afternoon and early evening, expect more
showers and thunderstorms to develop and expand into our eastern
zones where a Marginal Risk of severe weather is noted in SPC`s
Day 1 convective outlook. Thus, we cannot rule out a few strong
to severe storms this afternoon through this evening generally
along and east of the U.S. Hwy 167 corridor. Damaging winds and
large hail are the possible threats in play with the most intense
storms that develop. Otherwise, a weaker band of convection over
our western zones has all but dissipated with some virga/sprinkles
still possible. However, additional convection cannot be ruled out
later tonight through early Saturday morning as upstream showers
and storms across central and eastern OK may propagate SE into our
NW zones overnight. Confidence in this scenario remains low, but
PoPs have been introduced to account for this possibility. Lows
will drop back into the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight as clouds
increase, limiting the temperature drop compared to the past few
nights.
On Saturday, the threat of additional convection will remain in
the forecast as the upper level low across the SE CONUS gradually
becomes an open trough. Meanwhile, a sfc boundary will continue to
linger just to our east with strong theta-e ridging once again on
Saturday across our eastern zones. As lift and forcing become more
enhanced near the base of the upper trough, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase through the day on Saturday,
especially over our eastern half. Once again, a Marginal Risk will
cover much of our eastern zones as instability and mid-level lapse
rates will support strong upscale growth of storms during peak
heating hours on Saturday afternoon through early evening. Thus,
isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest
storms. Otherwise, convection should gradually wind down with the
loss of daytime heating later in the evening and overnight with
lows dropping back in the mid to upper 60s after high temperatures
in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
/19/
LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/
By Sunday morning, upper level ridging oriented around a 590 dm high
situated near the tip of the Baja Peninsula will gradually shift
eastward over the ArkLaTex. On the leading side of said ridge, an
upper level northwesterly flow regime will set the stage for yet
another round of potentially strong thunderstorms. The Storm
Prediction Center is including El Dorado, Texarkana and regions
north in a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe weather on Sunday. The
primary threat expected with these storms will be damaging winds,
though hail will again be possible. At this point, model consensus
may be underdoing the attendant PoPs, and is concentrating the
threat across our northernmost zones primarily after sunset Sunday
evening. Will continue to monitor in forthcoming runs.
After the precip Sunday night into Monday morning diminishes, a
prolonged period of dry conditions will take over and dominate
through the majority of the coming week. The upper level ridge will
continue to slowly drift east and begin to flatten out by midweek,
giving way to a more zonal regime aloft within which a weak
shortwave or two might attempt to develop, but confidence at this
time remains too low to introduce and appreciable PoPs to the
forecast.
90s there were, 90s there are, and 90s there will continue to be.
Low 90s north and mid 90s south on Sunday, in keeping with forecast
cloud cover and precip trends, followed by more widespread mid to
upper 90s as the upper level ridging pattern continues. Lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will experience a similar pattern, settling
in the low to mid 70s by late next week. Enjoy the upcoming third
week of July, I mean May.
/26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 91 68 95 / 20 20 10 0
MLU 69 89 68 93 / 30 30 20 0
DEQ 67 90 65 92 / 30 10 10 0
TXK 70 90 68 94 / 30 20 10 0
ELD 68 89 65 93 / 20 30 10 0
TYR 70 91 68 93 / 10 10 10 0
GGG 69 90 67 93 / 10 20 10 0
LFK 68 91 68 95 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
04/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
609 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Still waiting on storm development this afternoon. with the latest
HRRR pushing the expected development time until around 6 PM (23Z).
Most of the CAMs show convection somewhere across West Central Texas
later this afternoon and evening, with most showing the development
across portions of the eastern Permian Basin, Concho Valley, or Big
Country. This is where a weak triple point will be located between a
cold front moving southward and a dryline. Neither one of these
surface features is terribly strong but looks like it will be enough
to help overcome some capping aloft. Increased PoPs a little
already, running roughly 20-40% across the area, but once storms
develop may need to boost those numbers in advance of the
convection. Hard to do that until the convection finally gets going
though. High temperature/dewpoint spreads mean damaging winds
probably the biggest concern, although there is a chance of some
large hail as well.
Added some small PoPs for tomorrow afternoon as well, with several
of the CAMs showing residual boundaries from tonight`s activity
lingering into tomorrow and providing a little better focus. Again,
until we see where everything ends up tonight, confidence in
placement of convection tomorrow is low so will need to broadbrush
rain chances over a larger than what may end up necessary.
Mild tonight will lows in the 60s, and hot again tomorrow with
readings near 100 in many locations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Upper level ridging builds in from northern Mexico on Sunday. 850
mb temperatures also increase to 28-30C across the northern and
western half of the area. Temperatures will soar into the upper
90s to near 103 degrees under sunny skies. A shortwave trough
will rotate around the southwest U.S. upper ridge Sunday night and
Monday. This may send a weak frontal boundary into the northern
Big Country on Monday perhaps shaving a couple of degrees off the
highs there. Otherwise, highs of 99 to near 103 degrees are
expected for most of the area. The upper ridge flattens somewhat
on Tuesday and Wednesday...but with zonal flow aloft prevailing
rain chances look very slim to none. Highs Tuesday through
Thursday will remain in the upper 90s to near 104 degrees each
afternoon, with overnight lows only in the upper 60s and 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Showers and thunderstorms this evening will bring rapid and
sudden wind shifts due to downbursts. Activity should diminish by
about 03Z or so. Winds will be light and variable through most of
the night, becoming southerly again during the day tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 64 97 69 103 / 30 20 0 0
San Angelo 64 99 68 102 / 30 10 0 0
Junction 65 99 66 101 / 20 20 0 0
Brownwood 64 98 66 102 / 30 20 0 0
Sweetwater 65 98 69 103 / 30 0 0 0
Ozona 65 95 66 98 / 20 10 0 0
Brady 66 98 67 101 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...SK