Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/13/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
624 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Early afternoon temperatures are in the mid 80s to lower 90s and are
on track to top out in the lower 90s in the Hill Country to near 100
along the Rio Grande south of Eagle Pass. With continued daytime
heating, we could see some thunderstorms develop across the
Serranias del Burro mountains west of the Rio Grande. Steering flow
is rather weak and with the atmosphere east of the mountains
remaining capped, we will continue with a dry forecast across Val
Verde county today. Clear skies are anticipated this evening, with
an increase in low clouds for early Friday morning. Overnight lows
will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s for most of the region.
On Friday, the models show some weak upper disturbances will move
out of west Texas during the afternoon hours. These disturbances
combined with daytime heating and some low-level convergence along
the dryline could aid in the development of some afternoon and
evening convection across Val Verde and Edwards counties. A fair
amount of the hi-res models, including the Texas Tech WRF and the
SPC HRRR agree in showing some convection moving eastward across Val
Verde and Edwards counties during the afternoon and early evening
hours. We will keep a low chance for convection in the forecast, but
will keep rain chances limited to 20% at this time. If storms manage
to develop or move into the mentioned region, a strong to severe
storm can`t be ruled out.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Southerly flow will continue through the period across the region as
a summer-like pattern continues to have a hold on South-Central
Texas. North flow aloft this weekend will allow temperatures to
remain in the lower to upper 90s for highs with lows in the 60s to
lower 70s. The north flow will be replaced by mid-level ridging for
the beginning of the upcoming work-week. This should cause
temperatures to be on the upswing with highs Monday in the upper 90s
to near 102 for most locations. Temperatures should remain near these
values for the remainder of the long-term forecast period.
Unfortunately no rain is expected throughout the duration of the
extended forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Breezy southernly to southeasterly winds will continue this evening.
Gusts to around 25 kts will prevail through the evening. Low clouds
will develop overnight dropping ceilings to MVFR starting in San
Antonio and spreading to Austin and eventually Del Rio. Rebound to
VFR will come around noon on Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 69 96 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 67 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 67 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 67 95 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 72 95 71 98 / 0 10 10 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 68 94 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 67 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 67 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 69 95 68 96 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 69 98 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...29
Aviation...05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
949 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Storms continue to quickly move towards the international border.
Convection has outrun the best instability, and the tornado watch
is cancelled. Main threat for the rest of the night will be heavy
rain, and storms are moving quickly so think the flash flood
threat is less than river and areal flooding. Should see a bit of
a break in rain as the convection pushes into Canada by midnight.
A few lingering showers but main round of precipitation should be
done for the night.
UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Elevated storms continue to lift northward towards the Highway 2
corridor this evening, but the main severe complex is still to our
south over SD. While the best instability remains mostly to our
south, it has been creeping northward and there is the potential
for damaging straight line winds and even a QLCS tornado. The
storms are very quickly moving northward, and the severe line will
be moving into our southern counties within the next hour. CAMs
have the storms into our northern counties before midnight, which
is not out of the question given current forward movement.
Adjusted POPs for what we have currently going on and the expected
entrance of the SD severe line. Will continue to keep a close eye
on water issues as even though storms are moving quickly, they
have been efficient rain producers and many areas are already
saturated.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Overview...
SW flow aloft has brought another system into the Northern Plains.
The surface low remains to our west today, with a warm front moving
NNE into the mid valley and NW Minnesota by this afternoon.
Thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the cold front and
behind the warm front this afternoon and evening. Large hail up to 2
inches, wind gusts up to 75mph, a few tornados, and flash flooding
will be the main hazards this afternoon and evening. These could
bring property damage, damage to trees, vehicles, and sensitive
vegetation will all be possible. Have a way to receive alerts and
warnings this afternoon and evening.
Severe Threat Today...
Surface low pressure moves over western ND this afternoon and
evening, with the warm front translating NNE into the mid valley and
NW Minnesota. Current satellite and radar has a complex of storms
moving through central and eastern MN towards the Wisconsin area.
The cloud deck associated with these storms lingers in the eastern
valley towards NE MN. This would hinder some of the daytime heating
at times. There is also some low level clouds that have developed in
the James River valley towards eastern ND this afternoon. Some of it
is patchy dense fog towards the James River Valley. This would also
help to decrease temperatures this afternoon. Patchy blue skies are
filtering into the area especially east of the escarpment.
Now this plays into the development of storms this afternoon and
evening. For the thunderstorms to grow, we will need more sunshine
and heating at the surface to help break the CAP in the lower
levels. Short term guidance of the HREF and HRRR has a complex of
storms developing in central and eastern SD this afternoon and
shifting into the Red River Valley later this afternoon and evening.
MUCAPE ranges from the 3000-3500 J/kg range, and ML is in the 1500
J/kg range. Sounding profiles from the BIS and ABR area show deep
moisture through the mid to upper levels, with long CAPE through the
upper levels. Shear has been increasing across the area in the low
and mid levels this afternoon. Sfc to 3km shear is roughly 45-55kts,
while the sfc to 6km is around 50-70kts. Directional shear is
starting to take better shape, with a more curved hodograph through
the 4km level. Short term guidance has the warm front draped across
the mid valley this afternoon, but there is some uncertainty with
the exact extent of the northward push of the warm front. How far
north the front propagates, will determine the increased threats to
the mid and northern valley. The southern valley and west central MN
region looks to see the higher risk for tornadoes, as they will be
under the warm sector longer and have the sufficient shear and
instability available compared to the northern valley.
Guidance continues to show the possibility of discrete cells
developing ahead of the cold front, underneath the warm sector
during the later afternoon, with a stronger robust line developing
by the evening pushing into our region. So they may be a two round
punch of storms this evening, with the first under the warm front
and then the cold front push by the later evening hours. A LLJ looks
to set up in the evening and aid in the movement of the linear
storms along the cold front. This would increase the threat for
damaging winds especially from the mid valley southward. DCAPE
values are 800-1200 J/kg and inverted soundings near the surface
will also aid in the wind gust threat.
Flash flooding will also be possible in these storms, as they move
over areas already saturated from previous rainfalls. The ground is
having a hard time soaking up water. QPF is looking to be above an
inch across eastern ND and NW MN this evening and into tomorrow.
Locally higher amounts are possible from stronger thunderstorms.
So long story short there is a moderate risk for severe
thunderstorms across the southern valley. Other areas could see
scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Impacts are possible from large hail up to 2 inches,
damaging winds up to 75mph, possible flash flooding, and a few
tornados. Have a way to receive alerts this afternoon and evening.
Friday...
As the cold front moves out of the area tonight winds begin to
increase across North Dakota and into the eastern portions of the
valley. Vertical momentum and strong mixing in the lower levels
brings the increased wind gusts to the region. Guidance continues to
suggest wind gusts reaching 45-50kts at times in the Devils Lake
Basin and up to 45kts in the valley. The possibility does exist we
could see slightly higher gusts in the Devils Lake area up to 55kts
on an isolated basis through Friday. Thus we have issued a High Wind
Watch for the Devils Lake Basin down toward Barnes county from 12z
Friday through 02z Saturday. Impacts could be felt on east to west
roads on high profile vehicles.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Starting out, the 500mb pattern for Saturday, Sunday, and possibly
into Monday will feature a zonal flow pattern with a slow moving
closed low tracking across southern Canada. The FA may be close
enough to the low for afternoon convective showers and
thunderstorms, due to cyclonic flow. At this point, the coverage of
any of this type of activity looks pretty low and minimal. In
addition, wind speeds look a little gusty each afternoon, mainly
from a westerly direction. Temperatures overall look to remain near
or below normal.
For Tuesday through Thursday, the flow still looks to remain zonal.
There are a couple different signals for rain, one on Tuesday and
another on Thursday. At this point, the Tuesday chance looks better
along the North and South Dakota border. Not as sure about the
Thursday chance yet, but it will bear watching. Temperatures also
should remain slightly below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Convection continues to move quickly northward across the forecast
area with all but KFAR currently seeing some VCTS along with MVFR
conditions. Will continue the trend of having VCTS and keeping
TSRA to the tempo groups for now. While KFAR is seeing a bit of a
break, additional thunderstorms moving in from SD will bring
convection and lower ceilings by 01Z. Convection will continue for
much of the evening, with periodic lower visibility, CBs in the
area, and variable winds near thunderstorms. The storms will lift
northward towards the international border by 05Z, but MVFR
ceilings will linger a bit longer before clearing out towards
morning. Some MVFR ceilings will return later in the period for
the KDVL area. Winds from the east will shift around to the
southeast then southwest by the end of the period, with some
strong gusts over 35 kts on the ND side by tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Widespread overland and river flooding continues across the basin.
Flooding is likely to be exacerbated in some locations due to
upcoming rainfall with today`s thunderstorm threat. After today, we
do look to enter a slightly quieter weather pattern, at least for a
short while.
Red River mainstem...
Renewed rises are expected at many locations along the Red mainstem
due to recent and upcoming precipitation. A prolonged period of
minor flooding is expected at Wahpeton and Halstad with moderate to
major flooding expected or already occurring at most other locations.
Minnesota tributaries...
A return to generally minor flooding is expected along some of the
Minnesota tributaries. The main exception is along the Snake River
where recent heavy rainfall is expected to bump Warren and Alvarado
back into the moderate flood category.
North Dakota tributaries...
The main action along the North Dakota tributaries continues to be
along the Sheyenne and Pembina Rivers. Releases at Baldhill Dam have
started again causing Valley City to pop back up above flood stage.
However, the greatest impacts at this time continue to be further
downstream on the Sheyenne. Major flooding continues on the Pembina
at Neche although river levels are slowly declining. Elsewhere, the
Wild Rice at Abercrombie remains above moderate flood stage while
the remainder of the tributaries are experiencing little to minor
impacts.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
High Wind Watch from 7 AM CDT Friday through Friday evening for
NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
MN...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Spender
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...Lee
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
552 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Dealing with another interesting and challenging severe weather
threat for this afternoon and evening. A strong upper level wave in
Wyoming was spreading cooler and drier air aloft into central NE
this afternoon with elevated convection develop in central NE which
was lifting fairly quickly northward. Still some question on
supercell vs. linear development and the last few runs of the HRRR
are leaning a little more towards a supercell/multicell set up vs
the earlier expectation of a strong bowing segment. Still not
completely buying into this but there will be a little concern if
the ACCAS/showers and thunderstorms moving north move through just
before peak heating which might limit the ability to get surface
based storms going and generate a more organized jet and cold pool.
Current WoFS output still suggesting that the storms that move into
areas near and west of the James Valley through 23z will have a good
chance at producing 50 knot or higher wind gusts. With the 0-3km
bulk shear vector running about 35-40 knots from 210 degrees will
need to watch any linear segment that move northeast for possible
QLCS spinups. The other thought is that with the wave and front a
touch slower than it appeared yesterday is that this initial more
cellular activity will wrap north fairly quickly mid to late
afternoon then after about 0-3z this evening a more linear system
will try to develop in north central and eastern NE and lift
northeast as the cooler and drier air aloft punch east with the
upper wave, bringing a bit higher threat for the strongest winds to
areas near and east of Interstate 29.
Deep west to southwest flow will develop tonight into Friday and
bring much drier air to the region and drop temperatures about 15 to
20 degrees. Expecting highs mostly in the lower to mid 70s on Friday
with wind gusts about 20 to 30 mph, likely closer to 40 mph north of
Interstate 90.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Saturday through Monday low pressure will rotate across central
Canada which will keep a dry westerly flow across the Northern
Plains. This will bring mostly dry conditions with seasonally mild
temperatures as well as seasonally breezy conditions. Morning
lows likely to be from the lower 40s to lower 50s with afternoon
highs from about 65 to 75.
Troughiness over the western United States Tuesday into Thursday
will spread into the Northern Rockies by Thursday and bring a series
of waves into the Northern and Central Plains. Too far out to
determine timing and strength of any storms but for now does not
look like a great set up for heavier rain or severe weather. Overall
temperatures will remain seasonally mild.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Strong line of thunderstorms will lift northeast out of the area.
Any showers and thunderstorm activity this evening will remain
more scattered. The exception may be northeast NE and southern
parts of northwest IA where a line of storms may move through from
about 0z to 4z. These storms could have hail and strong winds.
After 6-8z, VFR conditions are expected.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
911 PM EDT Thu May 12 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A area of low pressure will move southwestward just off the
North and South Carolina coast, bringing breezy north winds
and increasing rain chances. As this low moves inland across
Georgia tonight, humid onshore winds will bring occasional
showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Warmer and drier
weather will develop next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Removed thunder from the forecast as only lightning being
detected is out over the Gulf Stream. Tweaked evening POPs to
favor Cape Fear rather than Grand Strand per radar trends. HRRR
now saying the same areas benefit from the next spoke of rain
that rotates in.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure moving southwestward down the South Carolina
coastline has brought showers and breezy winds to the
Carolinas today. This feature should continue to move away from
the area while weakening tonight.
Moist onshore flow behind this system will bring waves of
showers across the area for the next 24 hours. The biggest
concentration of showers and even some embedded thunderstorms is
expected Friday afternoon inland where instability and mass
convergence due to onshore winds will occur. After lows tonight
in the low- mid 60s (above MOS guidance due to recent model
verification) highs Friday should reach the upper 70s to around
80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cyclonic circulation aloft to shift NW into western Carolinas
Friday night, drifting north Saturday. This alters steering flow
locally, directing scattered showers, isolated TSTMs northward
versus onshore component of late. PWAT values begin to decline
Saturday as moderate mid-level drying occurs in 700-400 mb SW
flow. Diurnal heating however will ignite showers and isolated
TSTMs Saturday with available moisture. This aided by a weak,
lingering inverted surface trough inland that is in a state of
weakening will lifting north.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A diurnal transition becomes more pivotal into Saturday night
where convection over land wanes but becomes more active over
the waters overnight into early Sunday, in east quadrant of
lifting upper trough. Steering flow to maintain rain chances,
tracking northward near the coast and over the coastal waters.
Eventually our upper trough gets sheared to ENE by a massive
cyclonic structure and associated wind field extending from SE
Canada late Saturday and Sunday.
Weak cold front to cross coast Monday night with a slight boost
in rain chances, but QPF values appear low. In wake of weak
front, drier conditions generally with daytime temperatures
trending above normal into mid week, some guidance indicating
max-T in low 90s inland Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Still mostly MVFR to VFR at present as low pressure still close
enough to the coast for some mixing. CIGS will drop down to
MVFR/IFR borderline tonight, and faster than prev thought, many
places by 03Z. Improvement to MVFR not long after sunrise.
Showers to continue to be tough to pin down as to which
terminal warrants the rain being in FM groups. Near term trends
suggest ILM has best shot followed by the Myrtles.
Extended Outlook...Occasional showers and thunderstorm will
bring mainly short-lived flight category restrictions mainly Friday
afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. Late night and early
morning low clouds could bring MVFR to IFR conditions. Convection
should become more isolated in coverage Saturday night through
Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Friday:
A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through this
evening as a compact area of low pressure continues to move
southwestward along the SC coastline. Lighter east to northeast
winds will develop by late this evening behind this feature,
with the Small Craft Advisory anticipated to end for all area of
9pm.
Lighter east to southeast flow is expected on Friday as high
pressure off the coast and a now open wave of low pressure across
Georgia draw Atlantic moisture onshore. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms are expected.
Friday Night through Tuesday:
Though seas will be roughened up still, with occasional gusts to
20 kt Friday night, we may hold just below small craft advisory
levels in SE-S wind. Inland low pressure aloft will help bring
a sustained threat of TSTMs over the waters Friday night through
Saturday before tapering off in coverage, as system is sheared
offshore well north of area. Winds to ease this weekend is the
good news, but residual SE waves will maintain elevated seas of
3 to 5 feet just about all weekend. Seas to subside a foot
Monday ahead of weak cold front with SW winds 10-20 kt. A weak
cold front passage will bring winds to NW-N into Tuesday, but
below advisory levels at this time.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MBB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...MBB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
A few showers are still developing around FST but should not
impact the terminal. Modest winds this afternoon will subside in
the next few hours shifting 12-18Z with the arrival of a weak cold
front. VFR conditions will remain the next 24 hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
A broad upper lvl trough remains situated over the Intermountain
West as southwest flow aloft continues across W TX and SE NM. Weak
embedded shrtwvs within southwesterly flow continue to progress over
our region. The first of which will arrive this afternoon, followed
by a second and slightly more robust shrtwv on Friday. This will
keep isold thunderstorm chances in play along the dryline today and
tomorrow. However, latest RAP 13 analysis indicates a modest capping
inversion over W TX with 100-150 J/kg of ML CIN. It will take quite
a bit of heating/forcing to overcome this cap thus storm chances
will remain slim this afternoon (<20%). If a storm or two does
develop, the most likely location will be the Davis Mtns and
Stockton Plateau where upslope flow is present. Storms may also
become strong to severe due to steep mid-lvl lapse rates and CAPE
values around 2000 J/kg. Any convection should quickly dissipate
around sunset. Low temperatures will be above normal again tonight,
especially across the Permian Basin where dew points are expected to
remain in the mid 50s.
Friday will be a fairly similar day with the dryline once again
mixing ewd to the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos by mid-
afternoon. High temperatures will once again reach the mid 90s in
most locations w/100s along the Rio Grande. Severe wx parameters
will be slightly higher east of said dryline tomorrow w/CAPE values
increasing to around 2500-3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear
approaching 35-40 kts. Will keep mention of severe in the grids and
increase PoPs a bit across the eastern and southern zones. Tomorrow
may be our last shot at any meaningful, beneficial rainfall for a
while. A quiet night is expected Friday night into saturday morning
w/low temperatures settling into the 50s and 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Saturday, an upper-level ridge will be centered over Baja Sur,
leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under northwest flow
aloft. As a result, temperatures will already be on an upward
climb, coming in Saturday afternoon at around 10F above normal.
Sunday and Monday, highs climb another 2-3F, pushing many locations
outside of the Rio grande Valley into triple digits.
Tuesday, long range models bring an upper trough through the region,
and this may shave a degree or two off afternoon highs at best.
There`s still no consensus on convection with this feature, but
models do hint at sharpening up a dryline Tuesday afternoon.
However, the NBM remains lackadaisical on chances, except for
isolated activity in the Presidio valley ahead of the trough Monday
evening. Aside from that, long term grids remain dry.
Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures continue to increase, with
Thursday being the hottest day this forecast. These warmer
temperatures may necessitate a few Heat Advisories, but fortunately
dewpoints are looking to be on the low side.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Critical fire weather conditions will abate somewhat over the next
few days, as 20-ft winds decrease under upper-level ridging.
Increasing temperatures will result in minimum relative humidity
dropping into the single digits each afternoon, sustaining elevated
conditions into next week. Tuesday and Wednesday, westerlies
increase w/the approach of an upper-level trough, and this, combined
with increasing afternoon highs, may bring critical fire weather
into the picture once again.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 68 96 64 98 / 10 20 10 0
Carlsbad 55 94 54 96 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 71 94 68 96 / 20 20 10 0
Fort Stockton 67 96 65 98 / 20 20 10 0
Guadalupe Pass 62 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 52 94 57 95 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 54 91 51 93 / 10 10 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 66 96 65 98 / 10 10 10 0
Odessa 67 96 66 98 / 10 10 10 0
Wink 58 98 60 99 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway
54 Corridor.
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
Mountains.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...10
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Large scale flow consisting of negative tilt trough with embedded
circulation situated over WY. At the surface, area of low
pressure was located over south-central SD with a warm front
extending into southern MN and a cold front extending to northeast
CO. Per 88D mosaic storms have already formed along dry line in
western KS and expanded into south-central NE. Environment
activity is pushing into is quite unstable with MUCAPE roughly
4000 J/kg. Expect intensification trend to continue this afternoon
as line of storms forge eastward. At this point, the HRRR is
advertising this initial surge of convection will weaken late
this afternoon with more development along the cold front
sweeping in from the west. At this point expect thrust of
strong/severe linear storms to roll across the CWA this evening
with damaging straight line wind threat more prevalent along and
north of I-80. Frontal passage should be underway in the Omaha
metro sometime toward 06Z. Any lingering precip activity should be
clear of the CWA by sunrise Friday morning.
Very pleasant conditions expected then Friday and Saturday.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Saturday night/Sunday
morning in response to a cold front dropping out of the Dakotas.
Through early next week precip chances will prevail in association
with embedded impulses moving across the region.
Highs:
Fri - low 80s
Sat - low 80s
Sun - mid 70s
Mon - upper 70s/low 80s
Tue - mid/upper 70s
Wed - mid/upper 70s
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Line of severe storms continues to work through the area,
producing 60 to 70 mph wind gusts and MVFR to IFR conditions. The
winds have also been leading to blowing dust with very low
visibility, so visibility may significantly drop shortly prior to
storms arriving. Another line of storms may follow later this
evening, though those are less likely to be severe. As it stands,
have VCTS mention through 8-9Z at KOMA and KLNK, though may need
to refine to add a break prior to then.
Once the storms pass through, expect VFR conditions to prevail
with westerly to northwesterly winds generally 10 kts or less and
just some passing mid to high clouds.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DEE
AVIATION...CA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
953 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022
Based on obs in the greater Pikes Peak Region, have extended the
RED FLAG WARNING through midnight tonight as gusty winds continue
in parts of the PPR. The rest of the RED FLAG warning for the area
for tonight has been allowed to expire.
I made NO CHANGES to the fire weather highlights for tomorrow or
Saturday. /Hodanish
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022
...Widespread critical to extreme fire weather conditions are
expected to continue over most of southeastern Colorado until 10 PM
today...
Key messages:
1) Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected to
continue until later this evening. With unusually low RH values,
extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected across areas
of the plains throughout the early evening hours.
2) Due to the strong winds, some areas of blowing dust will be
possible over areas of the eastern plains and San Luis Valley this
evening, especially if wind gusts exceed 40 mph.
3) Some smoke from wildfires in New Mexico may infiltrate the most
southeastern portion of Colorado this evening. Visibilities may
become reduced if the smoke makes it down to the surface.
4) Critical fire weather conditions will be in place tomorrow for
the higher terrain, El Paso County, and mainly west of the I-25
corridor.
Detailed discussion:
Currently...
A couple of fires have already initiated over El Paso County, north
of Colorado springs, and conditions will continue to be hazardous
for fire control as fire weather conditions are expected to continue
until 10 PM tonight.
A major shortwave trough with an associated upper level low is
moving through the area, this is producing a strong pressure
gradient at the surface and the result is very strong and gusty
winds over much of southeast Colorado. Very dry air with unusually
low dewpoint temperatures are continuing to advect in over the CWA
behind this system as it continues to progress to the east. While
the HRRR values do appear to be a little too low with dewpoints when
verifying with real-time data, this model does suggest that some
locations over the southeastern plains could have dewpoint
temperatures drop below -20F this evening, and because of this, a
blend using the NBM 10th percentile will be utilized with respect to
dewpoint temperatures in order to offset the models with a known
bias of higher dewpoint temperatures within the NBM itself. Some of
the mesonet data this morning was already showing locations around
Colorado Springs with dewpoint depressions near 100 degrees and RH
values of 1 percent. Given this, these excessively dry conditions
will likely cause areas of extremely critical fire weather
conditions to remain in place throughout the evening hours. Winds
will weaken and RH recoveries should improve enough for critical
fire weather conditions to expire by around 10 PM. It does not
appear that the Red Flag Warning will need to be extended at this
time.
Tonight...
As winds further continue to weaken, they will become light and
variable across most of the CWA, except for the higher elevations,
in which they will remain out of the westerly direction across the
higher peaks. Skies will continue to clear and temperatures with
lighter winds and radiational cooling will be much cooler than they
have been with recent nights, dropping into the low to mid 40s for
much of the plains, 30s for the upper Arkansas River Valley and Wet
Mountain Valley, and generally in the upper teens and 20s for high
country.
Tomorrow...
The major shortwave trough will continue to propagate off to the
northeast and into southern Canada. The mid to upper flow will
remain out of the west-northwest as the trough axis takes on a more
negative tilt. This will allow for the westerly flow to remain
persistent over the higher terrain by later in the day after more
mixing brings these winds down to the surface. These stronger and
more gusty winds over the higher terrain with lower RH values still
in place will allow for critical fire weather conditions to be in
place again for much of the higher terrain, and especially west of
the I-25 corridor. Latest model guidance suggests that the wind
strength favorable for these conditions to develop over some of the
higher mountains and Teller County by around 11 AM. There is some of
the guidance suggesting stronger winds to be present over the Palmer
divide and downwind over southern El Paso County by later in the
afternoon, therefore zone 226 and 225 have also been added to the
Red Flag Warning. Temperatures will continue to be slightly cooler
tomorrow, especially over the plains as winds switch to a more
northeasterly direction. Dry air will still be in place over the
plains, although it appears at this time with most of the model
guidance that winds should remain below the criteria to warrant a
Red Flag Warning for the rest of the plains, although there could be
some areas of spotty conditions throughout the afternoon. -Stewey
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022
Key Messages:
1) Critical fire weather conditions remain likely for Saturday,
especially along and west of the I-25 corridor.
2) Breezy afternoons with near critical to critical fire weather
conditions next week.
Friday Night and Saturday...
We remain in zonal flow for Friday night and into Saturday, with
weak ridging starting to build into the southern Rockies as we head
into Saturday night. This setup will lead to slightly warmer
temperatures for Saturday, along with a better chance to see 25-30kt
winds into the I-25 corridor. Temperatures look to be about 15 to 20
degrees above normal for this time of year, with daytime highs in
the upper 80s in the lower terrain and in the San Luis Valley, and
70s in our mountains. We will remain dry, especially in the
mountains and in the San Luis Valley, where we will see relative
humidities falling back into the single digits by noon on Saturday.
Winds will still be high enough to lead to fire weather conditions
on Saturday afternoon, especially along and west of the I-25
corridor.
Saturday night-Sunday night...West to northwest winds continue to
moderate Saturday night and Sunday, as upper level ridging builds
across the Rockies. Weaker winds combined with slightly cooler
temperatures, aided by a weak cold front moving across the eastern
plains Saturday night, will lessen the fire danger a tad across
southern Colorado. While there still could be some near critical
conditions Sunday afternoon, especially west of the I-25 Corridor,
have not issued any fire weather highlights on Sunday.
Monday-Thursday...Westerly flow redevelops across the region as
minor embedded waves move through the Rockies through the middle of
next week. Increasing westerly flow will help boost temperatures and
mixing across the region, leading to increasing fire danger and more
Red Flag Warnings likely being issued next week, especially along
and west of the I-25 Corridor. Further east, lee troughing and a
possible dryline development could bring chances of thunderstorms
across the far southeast plains, with the potential for strong to
severe storms, especially Tuesday afternoon and evening. Unfortunately,
the chances for rain continue to look spotty with no signs of widespread
precipitation through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 706 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022
Update...
KCOS is currently closed due to heavy smoke from the fire in the
vicinity of the airport and also due to helicopter ops putting
out the fire. Fire is reportedly under control, but residual smoke
could reduce visibility to MVFR conditions.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-222>225-
228>237.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ220>227.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for COZ220>230.
Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ221-226-227.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...EHR/MW
AVIATION...RISER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
625 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
May see a few storms out across the Trans Pecos late this afternoon
and they may make it into western Crockett County but odds are low
and will only mention POPs out across the tip of the county.
Otherwise, dry tonight. Latest 18Z HRRR continues the trend of some
of the other 12Z CAMs showing some scattered convection across the
area for Friday afternoon, with a weak triple point between a weak
cold front sliding into the area and a dryline. Models all show the
boundary and thus the convection in difference places for tomorrow,
and capping may end up being an issue to prevent convection. Still,
worth a mention of slight chance POPs across much of the area. With
temperatures well in the 90s to near 100 and surface dewpoints in
the 40s/50s, damaging wind gusts look to be the main concern.
Atmosphere isn`t that much different than what it was a few nights
ago when the storm produced the 70+ mph wind gust in San Angelo.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Will keep a slight chance of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms going into the evening hours on Friday...as several
of the CAMS (convective allowing models) including the HRRR and
the TTWRF and HRW-FV3 show storms lingering across the Big Country
and Concho Valley beyond 00Z before dissipating for the most part
shortly after sunset. Some of these storms could be marginally
severe, with strong downburst winds the main threat.
Otherwise, the main story will continue to be the unseasonably
warm and dry conditions continuing across west central Texas as
upper level ridging builds in from northern Mexico. Highs will be
in the upper 90s to lower 100s over the weekend under mostly
sunny skies and gusty south-southwest winds. It looks even hotter
next week as the upper ridge remains in control and 850mb
temperatures increase to 30-32 degrees C...translating to highs of
102-106 degrees. The 6-10 day outlook from CPC indicates above
normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for our
region...so unfortunately not much relief in sight for our area.
Not good news as the latest drought monitor shows most of west
central Texas in severe to exceptional drought.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Southerly winds will fluctuate overnight, with gusts near 20 at
times. Towards daybreak, MVFR ceilings may develop from the south,
but this will be fairly short-lived. After 21Z, thunderstorms will
be possible which may impact some TAF sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 70 98 64 98 / 0 20 20 0
San Angelo 68 98 64 100 / 0 20 20 0
Junction 65 98 64 98 / 0 10 20 10
Brownwood 66 99 64 99 / 0 20 20 10
Sweetwater 69 98 65 98 / 10 20 20 0
Ozona 68 93 65 95 / 0 20 10 0
Brady 65 98 65 98 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...SK