Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/13/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
624 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Early afternoon temperatures are in the mid 80s to lower 90s and are on track to top out in the lower 90s in the Hill Country to near 100 along the Rio Grande south of Eagle Pass. With continued daytime heating, we could see some thunderstorms develop across the Serranias del Burro mountains west of the Rio Grande. Steering flow is rather weak and with the atmosphere east of the mountains remaining capped, we will continue with a dry forecast across Val Verde county today. Clear skies are anticipated this evening, with an increase in low clouds for early Friday morning. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s for most of the region. On Friday, the models show some weak upper disturbances will move out of west Texas during the afternoon hours. These disturbances combined with daytime heating and some low-level convergence along the dryline could aid in the development of some afternoon and evening convection across Val Verde and Edwards counties. A fair amount of the hi-res models, including the Texas Tech WRF and the SPC HRRR agree in showing some convection moving eastward across Val Verde and Edwards counties during the afternoon and early evening hours. We will keep a low chance for convection in the forecast, but will keep rain chances limited to 20% at this time. If storms manage to develop or move into the mentioned region, a strong to severe storm can`t be ruled out. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Southerly flow will continue through the period across the region as a summer-like pattern continues to have a hold on South-Central Texas. North flow aloft this weekend will allow temperatures to remain in the lower to upper 90s for highs with lows in the 60s to lower 70s. The north flow will be replaced by mid-level ridging for the beginning of the upcoming work-week. This should cause temperatures to be on the upswing with highs Monday in the upper 90s to near 102 for most locations. Temperatures should remain near these values for the remainder of the long-term forecast period. Unfortunately no rain is expected throughout the duration of the extended forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Breezy southernly to southeasterly winds will continue this evening. Gusts to around 25 kts will prevail through the evening. Low clouds will develop overnight dropping ceilings to MVFR starting in San Antonio and spreading to Austin and eventually Del Rio. Rebound to VFR will come around noon on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 96 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 67 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 67 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 67 95 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 95 71 98 / 0 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 94 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 67 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 67 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 95 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 69 98 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Platt Long-Term...29 Aviation...05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
949 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 949 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Storms continue to quickly move towards the international border. Convection has outrun the best instability, and the tornado watch is cancelled. Main threat for the rest of the night will be heavy rain, and storms are moving quickly so think the flash flood threat is less than river and areal flooding. Should see a bit of a break in rain as the convection pushes into Canada by midnight. A few lingering showers but main round of precipitation should be done for the night. UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Elevated storms continue to lift northward towards the Highway 2 corridor this evening, but the main severe complex is still to our south over SD. While the best instability remains mostly to our south, it has been creeping northward and there is the potential for damaging straight line winds and even a QLCS tornado. The storms are very quickly moving northward, and the severe line will be moving into our southern counties within the next hour. CAMs have the storms into our northern counties before midnight, which is not out of the question given current forward movement. Adjusted POPs for what we have currently going on and the expected entrance of the SD severe line. Will continue to keep a close eye on water issues as even though storms are moving quickly, they have been efficient rain producers and many areas are already saturated. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Overview... SW flow aloft has brought another system into the Northern Plains. The surface low remains to our west today, with a warm front moving NNE into the mid valley and NW Minnesota by this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the cold front and behind the warm front this afternoon and evening. Large hail up to 2 inches, wind gusts up to 75mph, a few tornados, and flash flooding will be the main hazards this afternoon and evening. These could bring property damage, damage to trees, vehicles, and sensitive vegetation will all be possible. Have a way to receive alerts and warnings this afternoon and evening. Severe Threat Today... Surface low pressure moves over western ND this afternoon and evening, with the warm front translating NNE into the mid valley and NW Minnesota. Current satellite and radar has a complex of storms moving through central and eastern MN towards the Wisconsin area. The cloud deck associated with these storms lingers in the eastern valley towards NE MN. This would hinder some of the daytime heating at times. There is also some low level clouds that have developed in the James River valley towards eastern ND this afternoon. Some of it is patchy dense fog towards the James River Valley. This would also help to decrease temperatures this afternoon. Patchy blue skies are filtering into the area especially east of the escarpment. Now this plays into the development of storms this afternoon and evening. For the thunderstorms to grow, we will need more sunshine and heating at the surface to help break the CAP in the lower levels. Short term guidance of the HREF and HRRR has a complex of storms developing in central and eastern SD this afternoon and shifting into the Red River Valley later this afternoon and evening. MUCAPE ranges from the 3000-3500 J/kg range, and ML is in the 1500 J/kg range. Sounding profiles from the BIS and ABR area show deep moisture through the mid to upper levels, with long CAPE through the upper levels. Shear has been increasing across the area in the low and mid levels this afternoon. Sfc to 3km shear is roughly 45-55kts, while the sfc to 6km is around 50-70kts. Directional shear is starting to take better shape, with a more curved hodograph through the 4km level. Short term guidance has the warm front draped across the mid valley this afternoon, but there is some uncertainty with the exact extent of the northward push of the warm front. How far north the front propagates, will determine the increased threats to the mid and northern valley. The southern valley and west central MN region looks to see the higher risk for tornadoes, as they will be under the warm sector longer and have the sufficient shear and instability available compared to the northern valley. Guidance continues to show the possibility of discrete cells developing ahead of the cold front, underneath the warm sector during the later afternoon, with a stronger robust line developing by the evening pushing into our region. So they may be a two round punch of storms this evening, with the first under the warm front and then the cold front push by the later evening hours. A LLJ looks to set up in the evening and aid in the movement of the linear storms along the cold front. This would increase the threat for damaging winds especially from the mid valley southward. DCAPE values are 800-1200 J/kg and inverted soundings near the surface will also aid in the wind gust threat. Flash flooding will also be possible in these storms, as they move over areas already saturated from previous rainfalls. The ground is having a hard time soaking up water. QPF is looking to be above an inch across eastern ND and NW MN this evening and into tomorrow. Locally higher amounts are possible from stronger thunderstorms. So long story short there is a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms across the southern valley. Other areas could see scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Impacts are possible from large hail up to 2 inches, damaging winds up to 75mph, possible flash flooding, and a few tornados. Have a way to receive alerts this afternoon and evening. Friday... As the cold front moves out of the area tonight winds begin to increase across North Dakota and into the eastern portions of the valley. Vertical momentum and strong mixing in the lower levels brings the increased wind gusts to the region. Guidance continues to suggest wind gusts reaching 45-50kts at times in the Devils Lake Basin and up to 45kts in the valley. The possibility does exist we could see slightly higher gusts in the Devils Lake area up to 55kts on an isolated basis through Friday. Thus we have issued a High Wind Watch for the Devils Lake Basin down toward Barnes county from 12z Friday through 02z Saturday. Impacts could be felt on east to west roads on high profile vehicles. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Starting out, the 500mb pattern for Saturday, Sunday, and possibly into Monday will feature a zonal flow pattern with a slow moving closed low tracking across southern Canada. The FA may be close enough to the low for afternoon convective showers and thunderstorms, due to cyclonic flow. At this point, the coverage of any of this type of activity looks pretty low and minimal. In addition, wind speeds look a little gusty each afternoon, mainly from a westerly direction. Temperatures overall look to remain near or below normal. For Tuesday through Thursday, the flow still looks to remain zonal. There are a couple different signals for rain, one on Tuesday and another on Thursday. At this point, the Tuesday chance looks better along the North and South Dakota border. Not as sure about the Thursday chance yet, but it will bear watching. Temperatures also should remain slightly below normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Convection continues to move quickly northward across the forecast area with all but KFAR currently seeing some VCTS along with MVFR conditions. Will continue the trend of having VCTS and keeping TSRA to the tempo groups for now. While KFAR is seeing a bit of a break, additional thunderstorms moving in from SD will bring convection and lower ceilings by 01Z. Convection will continue for much of the evening, with periodic lower visibility, CBs in the area, and variable winds near thunderstorms. The storms will lift northward towards the international border by 05Z, but MVFR ceilings will linger a bit longer before clearing out towards morning. Some MVFR ceilings will return later in the period for the KDVL area. Winds from the east will shift around to the southeast then southwest by the end of the period, with some strong gusts over 35 kts on the ND side by tomorrow afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Widespread overland and river flooding continues across the basin. Flooding is likely to be exacerbated in some locations due to upcoming rainfall with today`s thunderstorm threat. After today, we do look to enter a slightly quieter weather pattern, at least for a short while. Red River mainstem... Renewed rises are expected at many locations along the Red mainstem due to recent and upcoming precipitation. A prolonged period of minor flooding is expected at Wahpeton and Halstad with moderate to major flooding expected or already occurring at most other locations. Minnesota tributaries... A return to generally minor flooding is expected along some of the Minnesota tributaries. The main exception is along the Snake River where recent heavy rainfall is expected to bump Warren and Alvarado back into the moderate flood category. North Dakota tributaries... The main action along the North Dakota tributaries continues to be along the Sheyenne and Pembina Rivers. Releases at Baldhill Dam have started again causing Valley City to pop back up above flood stage. However, the greatest impacts at this time continue to be further downstream on the Sheyenne. Major flooding continues on the Pembina at Neche although river levels are slowly declining. Elsewhere, the Wild Rice at Abercrombie remains above moderate flood stage while the remainder of the tributaries are experiencing little to minor impacts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for NDZ006>008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. High Wind Watch from 7 AM CDT Friday through Friday evening for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054. MN...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ001>009-013>017- 022>024-027>032-040. $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...Spender LONG TERM...Godon AVIATION...JR HYDROLOGY...Lee
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
552 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Dealing with another interesting and challenging severe weather threat for this afternoon and evening. A strong upper level wave in Wyoming was spreading cooler and drier air aloft into central NE this afternoon with elevated convection develop in central NE which was lifting fairly quickly northward. Still some question on supercell vs. linear development and the last few runs of the HRRR are leaning a little more towards a supercell/multicell set up vs the earlier expectation of a strong bowing segment. Still not completely buying into this but there will be a little concern if the ACCAS/showers and thunderstorms moving north move through just before peak heating which might limit the ability to get surface based storms going and generate a more organized jet and cold pool. Current WoFS output still suggesting that the storms that move into areas near and west of the James Valley through 23z will have a good chance at producing 50 knot or higher wind gusts. With the 0-3km bulk shear vector running about 35-40 knots from 210 degrees will need to watch any linear segment that move northeast for possible QLCS spinups. The other thought is that with the wave and front a touch slower than it appeared yesterday is that this initial more cellular activity will wrap north fairly quickly mid to late afternoon then after about 0-3z this evening a more linear system will try to develop in north central and eastern NE and lift northeast as the cooler and drier air aloft punch east with the upper wave, bringing a bit higher threat for the strongest winds to areas near and east of Interstate 29. Deep west to southwest flow will develop tonight into Friday and bring much drier air to the region and drop temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees. Expecting highs mostly in the lower to mid 70s on Friday with wind gusts about 20 to 30 mph, likely closer to 40 mph north of Interstate 90. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Saturday through Monday low pressure will rotate across central Canada which will keep a dry westerly flow across the Northern Plains. This will bring mostly dry conditions with seasonally mild temperatures as well as seasonally breezy conditions. Morning lows likely to be from the lower 40s to lower 50s with afternoon highs from about 65 to 75. Troughiness over the western United States Tuesday into Thursday will spread into the Northern Rockies by Thursday and bring a series of waves into the Northern and Central Plains. Too far out to determine timing and strength of any storms but for now does not look like a great set up for heavier rain or severe weather. Overall temperatures will remain seasonally mild. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 550 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Strong line of thunderstorms will lift northeast out of the area. Any showers and thunderstorm activity this evening will remain more scattered. The exception may be northeast NE and southern parts of northwest IA where a line of storms may move through from about 0z to 4z. These storms could have hail and strong winds. After 6-8z, VFR conditions are expected. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
911 PM EDT Thu May 12 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A area of low pressure will move southwestward just off the North and South Carolina coast, bringing breezy north winds and increasing rain chances. As this low moves inland across Georgia tonight, humid onshore winds will bring occasional showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Warmer and drier weather will develop next week. && .UPDATE... Removed thunder from the forecast as only lightning being detected is out over the Gulf Stream. Tweaked evening POPs to favor Cape Fear rather than Grand Strand per radar trends. HRRR now saying the same areas benefit from the next spoke of rain that rotates in. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure moving southwestward down the South Carolina coastline has brought showers and breezy winds to the Carolinas today. This feature should continue to move away from the area while weakening tonight. Moist onshore flow behind this system will bring waves of showers across the area for the next 24 hours. The biggest concentration of showers and even some embedded thunderstorms is expected Friday afternoon inland where instability and mass convergence due to onshore winds will occur. After lows tonight in the low- mid 60s (above MOS guidance due to recent model verification) highs Friday should reach the upper 70s to around 80. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cyclonic circulation aloft to shift NW into western Carolinas Friday night, drifting north Saturday. This alters steering flow locally, directing scattered showers, isolated TSTMs northward versus onshore component of late. PWAT values begin to decline Saturday as moderate mid-level drying occurs in 700-400 mb SW flow. Diurnal heating however will ignite showers and isolated TSTMs Saturday with available moisture. This aided by a weak, lingering inverted surface trough inland that is in a state of weakening will lifting north. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A diurnal transition becomes more pivotal into Saturday night where convection over land wanes but becomes more active over the waters overnight into early Sunday, in east quadrant of lifting upper trough. Steering flow to maintain rain chances, tracking northward near the coast and over the coastal waters. Eventually our upper trough gets sheared to ENE by a massive cyclonic structure and associated wind field extending from SE Canada late Saturday and Sunday. Weak cold front to cross coast Monday night with a slight boost in rain chances, but QPF values appear low. In wake of weak front, drier conditions generally with daytime temperatures trending above normal into mid week, some guidance indicating max-T in low 90s inland Wednesday. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Still mostly MVFR to VFR at present as low pressure still close enough to the coast for some mixing. CIGS will drop down to MVFR/IFR borderline tonight, and faster than prev thought, many places by 03Z. Improvement to MVFR not long after sunrise. Showers to continue to be tough to pin down as to which terminal warrants the rain being in FM groups. Near term trends suggest ILM has best shot followed by the Myrtles. Extended Outlook...Occasional showers and thunderstorm will bring mainly short-lived flight category restrictions mainly Friday afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. Late night and early morning low clouds could bring MVFR to IFR conditions. Convection should become more isolated in coverage Saturday night through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Through Friday: A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through this evening as a compact area of low pressure continues to move southwestward along the SC coastline. Lighter east to northeast winds will develop by late this evening behind this feature, with the Small Craft Advisory anticipated to end for all area of 9pm. Lighter east to southeast flow is expected on Friday as high pressure off the coast and a now open wave of low pressure across Georgia draw Atlantic moisture onshore. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected. Friday Night through Tuesday: Though seas will be roughened up still, with occasional gusts to 20 kt Friday night, we may hold just below small craft advisory levels in SE-S wind. Inland low pressure aloft will help bring a sustained threat of TSTMs over the waters Friday night through Saturday before tapering off in coverage, as system is sheared offshore well north of area. Winds to ease this weekend is the good news, but residual SE waves will maintain elevated seas of 3 to 5 feet just about all weekend. Seas to subside a foot Monday ahead of weak cold front with SW winds 10-20 kt. A weak cold front passage will bring winds to NW-N into Tuesday, but below advisory levels at this time. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...MBB NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...MBB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 A few showers are still developing around FST but should not impact the terminal. Modest winds this afternoon will subside in the next few hours shifting 12-18Z with the arrival of a weak cold front. VFR conditions will remain the next 24 hours. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 A broad upper lvl trough remains situated over the Intermountain West as southwest flow aloft continues across W TX and SE NM. Weak embedded shrtwvs within southwesterly flow continue to progress over our region. The first of which will arrive this afternoon, followed by a second and slightly more robust shrtwv on Friday. This will keep isold thunderstorm chances in play along the dryline today and tomorrow. However, latest RAP 13 analysis indicates a modest capping inversion over W TX with 100-150 J/kg of ML CIN. It will take quite a bit of heating/forcing to overcome this cap thus storm chances will remain slim this afternoon (<20%). If a storm or two does develop, the most likely location will be the Davis Mtns and Stockton Plateau where upslope flow is present. Storms may also become strong to severe due to steep mid-lvl lapse rates and CAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Any convection should quickly dissipate around sunset. Low temperatures will be above normal again tonight, especially across the Permian Basin where dew points are expected to remain in the mid 50s. Friday will be a fairly similar day with the dryline once again mixing ewd to the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos by mid- afternoon. High temperatures will once again reach the mid 90s in most locations w/100s along the Rio Grande. Severe wx parameters will be slightly higher east of said dryline tomorrow w/CAPE values increasing to around 2500-3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear approaching 35-40 kts. Will keep mention of severe in the grids and increase PoPs a bit across the eastern and southern zones. Tomorrow may be our last shot at any meaningful, beneficial rainfall for a while. A quiet night is expected Friday night into saturday morning w/low temperatures settling into the 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Saturday, an upper-level ridge will be centered over Baja Sur, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under northwest flow aloft. As a result, temperatures will already be on an upward climb, coming in Saturday afternoon at around 10F above normal. Sunday and Monday, highs climb another 2-3F, pushing many locations outside of the Rio grande Valley into triple digits. Tuesday, long range models bring an upper trough through the region, and this may shave a degree or two off afternoon highs at best. There`s still no consensus on convection with this feature, but models do hint at sharpening up a dryline Tuesday afternoon. However, the NBM remains lackadaisical on chances, except for isolated activity in the Presidio valley ahead of the trough Monday evening. Aside from that, long term grids remain dry. Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures continue to increase, with Thursday being the hottest day this forecast. These warmer temperatures may necessitate a few Heat Advisories, but fortunately dewpoints are looking to be on the low side. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Critical fire weather conditions will abate somewhat over the next few days, as 20-ft winds decrease under upper-level ridging. Increasing temperatures will result in minimum relative humidity dropping into the single digits each afternoon, sustaining elevated conditions into next week. Tuesday and Wednesday, westerlies increase w/the approach of an upper-level trough, and this, combined with increasing afternoon highs, may bring critical fire weather into the picture once again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 68 96 64 98 / 10 20 10 0 Carlsbad 55 94 54 96 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 71 94 68 96 / 20 20 10 0 Fort Stockton 67 96 65 98 / 20 20 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 62 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 52 94 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 54 91 51 93 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 66 96 65 98 / 10 10 10 0 Odessa 67 96 66 98 / 10 10 10 0 Wink 58 98 60 99 / 10 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...10
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Large scale flow consisting of negative tilt trough with embedded circulation situated over WY. At the surface, area of low pressure was located over south-central SD with a warm front extending into southern MN and a cold front extending to northeast CO. Per 88D mosaic storms have already formed along dry line in western KS and expanded into south-central NE. Environment activity is pushing into is quite unstable with MUCAPE roughly 4000 J/kg. Expect intensification trend to continue this afternoon as line of storms forge eastward. At this point, the HRRR is advertising this initial surge of convection will weaken late this afternoon with more development along the cold front sweeping in from the west. At this point expect thrust of strong/severe linear storms to roll across the CWA this evening with damaging straight line wind threat more prevalent along and north of I-80. Frontal passage should be underway in the Omaha metro sometime toward 06Z. Any lingering precip activity should be clear of the CWA by sunrise Friday morning. Very pleasant conditions expected then Friday and Saturday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Saturday night/Sunday morning in response to a cold front dropping out of the Dakotas. Through early next week precip chances will prevail in association with embedded impulses moving across the region. Highs: Fri - low 80s Sat - low 80s Sun - mid 70s Mon - upper 70s/low 80s Tue - mid/upper 70s Wed - mid/upper 70s && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Line of severe storms continues to work through the area, producing 60 to 70 mph wind gusts and MVFR to IFR conditions. The winds have also been leading to blowing dust with very low visibility, so visibility may significantly drop shortly prior to storms arriving. Another line of storms may follow later this evening, though those are less likely to be severe. As it stands, have VCTS mention through 8-9Z at KOMA and KLNK, though may need to refine to add a break prior to then. Once the storms pass through, expect VFR conditions to prevail with westerly to northwesterly winds generally 10 kts or less and just some passing mid to high clouds. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DEE AVIATION...CA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
953 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022 Based on obs in the greater Pikes Peak Region, have extended the RED FLAG WARNING through midnight tonight as gusty winds continue in parts of the PPR. The rest of the RED FLAG warning for the area for tonight has been allowed to expire. I made NO CHANGES to the fire weather highlights for tomorrow or Saturday. /Hodanish && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022 ...Widespread critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected to continue over most of southeastern Colorado until 10 PM today... Key messages: 1) Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue until later this evening. With unusually low RH values, extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected across areas of the plains throughout the early evening hours. 2) Due to the strong winds, some areas of blowing dust will be possible over areas of the eastern plains and San Luis Valley this evening, especially if wind gusts exceed 40 mph. 3) Some smoke from wildfires in New Mexico may infiltrate the most southeastern portion of Colorado this evening. Visibilities may become reduced if the smoke makes it down to the surface. 4) Critical fire weather conditions will be in place tomorrow for the higher terrain, El Paso County, and mainly west of the I-25 corridor. Detailed discussion: Currently... A couple of fires have already initiated over El Paso County, north of Colorado springs, and conditions will continue to be hazardous for fire control as fire weather conditions are expected to continue until 10 PM tonight. A major shortwave trough with an associated upper level low is moving through the area, this is producing a strong pressure gradient at the surface and the result is very strong and gusty winds over much of southeast Colorado. Very dry air with unusually low dewpoint temperatures are continuing to advect in over the CWA behind this system as it continues to progress to the east. While the HRRR values do appear to be a little too low with dewpoints when verifying with real-time data, this model does suggest that some locations over the southeastern plains could have dewpoint temperatures drop below -20F this evening, and because of this, a blend using the NBM 10th percentile will be utilized with respect to dewpoint temperatures in order to offset the models with a known bias of higher dewpoint temperatures within the NBM itself. Some of the mesonet data this morning was already showing locations around Colorado Springs with dewpoint depressions near 100 degrees and RH values of 1 percent. Given this, these excessively dry conditions will likely cause areas of extremely critical fire weather conditions to remain in place throughout the evening hours. Winds will weaken and RH recoveries should improve enough for critical fire weather conditions to expire by around 10 PM. It does not appear that the Red Flag Warning will need to be extended at this time. Tonight... As winds further continue to weaken, they will become light and variable across most of the CWA, except for the higher elevations, in which they will remain out of the westerly direction across the higher peaks. Skies will continue to clear and temperatures with lighter winds and radiational cooling will be much cooler than they have been with recent nights, dropping into the low to mid 40s for much of the plains, 30s for the upper Arkansas River Valley and Wet Mountain Valley, and generally in the upper teens and 20s for high country. Tomorrow... The major shortwave trough will continue to propagate off to the northeast and into southern Canada. The mid to upper flow will remain out of the west-northwest as the trough axis takes on a more negative tilt. This will allow for the westerly flow to remain persistent over the higher terrain by later in the day after more mixing brings these winds down to the surface. These stronger and more gusty winds over the higher terrain with lower RH values still in place will allow for critical fire weather conditions to be in place again for much of the higher terrain, and especially west of the I-25 corridor. Latest model guidance suggests that the wind strength favorable for these conditions to develop over some of the higher mountains and Teller County by around 11 AM. There is some of the guidance suggesting stronger winds to be present over the Palmer divide and downwind over southern El Paso County by later in the afternoon, therefore zone 226 and 225 have also been added to the Red Flag Warning. Temperatures will continue to be slightly cooler tomorrow, especially over the plains as winds switch to a more northeasterly direction. Dry air will still be in place over the plains, although it appears at this time with most of the model guidance that winds should remain below the criteria to warrant a Red Flag Warning for the rest of the plains, although there could be some areas of spotty conditions throughout the afternoon. -Stewey .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022 Key Messages: 1) Critical fire weather conditions remain likely for Saturday, especially along and west of the I-25 corridor. 2) Breezy afternoons with near critical to critical fire weather conditions next week. Friday Night and Saturday... We remain in zonal flow for Friday night and into Saturday, with weak ridging starting to build into the southern Rockies as we head into Saturday night. This setup will lead to slightly warmer temperatures for Saturday, along with a better chance to see 25-30kt winds into the I-25 corridor. Temperatures look to be about 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year, with daytime highs in the upper 80s in the lower terrain and in the San Luis Valley, and 70s in our mountains. We will remain dry, especially in the mountains and in the San Luis Valley, where we will see relative humidities falling back into the single digits by noon on Saturday. Winds will still be high enough to lead to fire weather conditions on Saturday afternoon, especially along and west of the I-25 corridor. Saturday night-Sunday night...West to northwest winds continue to moderate Saturday night and Sunday, as upper level ridging builds across the Rockies. Weaker winds combined with slightly cooler temperatures, aided by a weak cold front moving across the eastern plains Saturday night, will lessen the fire danger a tad across southern Colorado. While there still could be some near critical conditions Sunday afternoon, especially west of the I-25 Corridor, have not issued any fire weather highlights on Sunday. Monday-Thursday...Westerly flow redevelops across the region as minor embedded waves move through the Rockies through the middle of next week. Increasing westerly flow will help boost temperatures and mixing across the region, leading to increasing fire danger and more Red Flag Warnings likely being issued next week, especially along and west of the I-25 Corridor. Further east, lee troughing and a possible dryline development could bring chances of thunderstorms across the far southeast plains, with the potential for strong to severe storms, especially Tuesday afternoon and evening. Unfortunately, the chances for rain continue to look spotty with no signs of widespread precipitation through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 706 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022 Update... KCOS is currently closed due to heavy smoke from the fire in the vicinity of the airport and also due to helicopter ops putting out the fire. Fire is reportedly under control, but residual smoke could reduce visibility to MVFR conditions. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-222>225- 228>237. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ220>227. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for COZ220>230. Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ221-226-227. && $$ UPDATE...HODANISH SHORT TERM...STEWARD LONG TERM...EHR/MW AVIATION...RISER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
625 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 May see a few storms out across the Trans Pecos late this afternoon and they may make it into western Crockett County but odds are low and will only mention POPs out across the tip of the county. Otherwise, dry tonight. Latest 18Z HRRR continues the trend of some of the other 12Z CAMs showing some scattered convection across the area for Friday afternoon, with a weak triple point between a weak cold front sliding into the area and a dryline. Models all show the boundary and thus the convection in difference places for tomorrow, and capping may end up being an issue to prevent convection. Still, worth a mention of slight chance POPs across much of the area. With temperatures well in the 90s to near 100 and surface dewpoints in the 40s/50s, damaging wind gusts look to be the main concern. Atmosphere isn`t that much different than what it was a few nights ago when the storm produced the 70+ mph wind gust in San Angelo. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Will keep a slight chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms going into the evening hours on several of the CAMS (convective allowing models) including the HRRR and the TTWRF and HRW-FV3 show storms lingering across the Big Country and Concho Valley beyond 00Z before dissipating for the most part shortly after sunset. Some of these storms could be marginally severe, with strong downburst winds the main threat. Otherwise, the main story will continue to be the unseasonably warm and dry conditions continuing across west central Texas as upper level ridging builds in from northern Mexico. Highs will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s over the weekend under mostly sunny skies and gusty south-southwest winds. It looks even hotter next week as the upper ridge remains in control and 850mb temperatures increase to 30-32 degrees C...translating to highs of 102-106 degrees. The 6-10 day outlook from CPC indicates above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for our unfortunately not much relief in sight for our area. Not good news as the latest drought monitor shows most of west central Texas in severe to exceptional drought. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Southerly winds will fluctuate overnight, with gusts near 20 at times. Towards daybreak, MVFR ceilings may develop from the south, but this will be fairly short-lived. After 21Z, thunderstorms will be possible which may impact some TAF sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 70 98 64 98 / 0 20 20 0 San Angelo 68 98 64 100 / 0 20 20 0 Junction 65 98 64 98 / 0 10 20 10 Brownwood 66 99 64 99 / 0 20 20 10 Sweetwater 69 98 65 98 / 10 20 20 0 Ozona 68 93 65 95 / 0 20 10 0 Brady 65 98 65 98 / 0 10 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...SK