Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/11/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
629 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022
.AVIATION...
Another night of VFR conditions is likely across the region. Have
prevailing MVFR for all sites through the overnight hours,
thinking similar to last night. Some guidance does lower the
probability of MVFR near the coast toward morning, but will stick
with persistence at this time. Gusty winds again this evening and
again tomorrow.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Shortwave sneaking in from the west is firing off convection along
the Sierra Madre this afternoon. There is potential for any storms
to develop across the state of Coahuila in Mexico to tap into the
3000+ J/kg CAPE and drift southeast toward far western Webb
County. GFS/ECMWF develop activity just to the northwest of Webb
county and move it east into much of northwestern Webb. HRRR shows
similar in development, with TT WRF also showing development but
diminishes activity as it reaches the border. For this, have
included less than 20 POPs for the far western portions of Webb
county this evening, mainly between 00Z-06Z. Should storms
develop, strong to severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out with
gusty winds and hail.
Outside of this, broad ridging remains in place keeping hot
conditions for the rest of today and Wednesday. Temperatures
across the Coastal Plains will range from the mid-upper 80s to
mid-90s, with upper-90s to near 100 degrees across the Brush
Country.
Overnight, warm and muggy conditions are expected tonight. Drier
conditions are expected for tomorrow which should allow Wednesday
night lows to be noticeably cooler, with lows in the lower 70s
inland to mid-upper 70s along the immediate coast.
LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Persistence is the rule regarding the upcoming forecast through the
end of the week with hot and dry conditions continuing. The ridge
will begin to breakdown and shift southward by Friday as an upper
trough moves into the plains. However, the very dry airmass in place
with PWs <1" will limit any potential for precipitation. The drier
air will also limit heat index values to generally 100 degrees or
less. The pattern changes slightly on Saturday with the ridge
becoming more amplified over the Southern Rockies. This will place
Texas in a northwest flow aloft regime which can often result in MCS
development with any vorticity maximum that rides around the
periphery of the ridge. Moisture increases as well on Saturday
with PWs approaching 1.5" across the Victoria Crossroads. Thus
there may be a slight potential for precipitation across the
northeast Coastal Bend Saturday into Sunday, but confidence is not
high enough to add to the grids or official forecast just yet. It
certainly bears watching! The upper ridge builds back overhead by
Monday, which will dry us out and allow temps to warm up for the
start of the new week.
Given the dry conditions, winds, and low RH values (less than 30%)
across the brush country Thursday, Friday and Monday, elevated fire
danger will be possible each afternoon.
MARINE...
Generally moderate onshore flow is expected through tonight, with
weak to moderate flow on Wednesday.
A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue along the Middle Texas
coast through the week. Ridging aloft will help maintain dry
conditions through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 76 90 73 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Victoria 75 94 71 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Laredo 77 98 72 99 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
Alice 73 95 71 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Rockport 79 88 78 88 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 77 100 72 101 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 75 92 72 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 79 89 78 85 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening For the
following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.
GM...None.
&&
$$
PH/83...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
636 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Partly to mostly sunny skies will occur today under high
pressure. A weak disturbance will provide a slight chance of
showers Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the next chance of
precipitation will be this weekend with the arrival of an upper
level low from the east.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Ridging today will extend from the southern plains northeast
through the Great Lakes and into southeast Canada. A mid-level
impulse moving northeast up the western side of the ridge will
spark showers and storms over the upper Midwest. While the local
area will stay dry, some residual moisture and clouds from this
activity will push into east central Indiana and western Ohio.
Very dry air at the surface will hold firm over the eastern half
of Ohio and northeast Kentucky, providing mostly sunny skies.
Highs today will reach into the low 80s at most locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Ridging remains in place tonight. Lingering shallow 850mb
moisture under the mid-level cap may lead to patches of clouds
over the western half of the forecast area. In addition, the
HRRR and the ARW both show elevated instability above the cap
along with a southward-moving boundary from previous convection
over Lower Michigan. Have added low- end PoPs in the northwest
heading toward morning... but uncertainty is high whether this
potential activity can make it far enough to the south to affect
our region.
Lows will be several degrees warmer ranging from the low 50s
east to the low 60s west.
Easterly flow aloft looks to push 850mb moisture back west of
the region through the day on Wednesday, so skies will become
mostly sunny from east to west. Warm temperatures prevail under
the persistent positive height anomalies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Our current Omega blocking/ ridging pattern continues into Thursday,
keeping the forecast dry and high temperatures in the low 80s/ low
temperatures in the upper 50s.
A cut off low out near the Atlantic will begin to retrograde back
toward the Ohio Valley, pulling moisture along with it. As this
system approaches from the southeast, clouds will build in from east
to west Friday daytime hours. The GFS ensemble is a bit more
aggressive pulling pcpn back into the forecast, especially for our
eastern counties, as the closed low translates northwestward.
However, the Euro/Canadian ensembles keep pcpn out of the area-
ended up leaning toward the latter solutions and kept the area dry
Friday.
As the low moves into and eventually over the CWA, models come into
better agreement for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday,
with instability building into the afternoon.
The H5 ridge/ remnants of the closed low move off to the east
overnight Saturday into Sunday and are replaced by a digging upper
level trough. The associated surface low, near Ontario, will drag a
cold front through our area on Sunday, bringing more pcpn/ storms.
Pcpn chances persist through the start of the work week as the low
pivots eastward.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is an
outside chance of patchy river valley fog at LUK late tonight,
but have kept it out of the TAF for now due to persistence along
with potential for scattered clouds expressed by some guidance.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1135 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 942 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022
Surface analysis late this evening shows Indiana caught between high
pressure centered over the deep south and a weak trough of low
pressure stretching from Eastern WI to Central KS and the TX
panhandle. This was resulting a warm and humid southerly flow of air
to Indiana and the Ohio valley. GOES16 shows mainly clear skies
across the region with only some High CI lingering across Central
Indiana. Aloft water vapor showed a large area of high pressure
centered over the lower Mississippi valley with a ridge extending
north and east across Indiana to southern Ontario. Subsidence and
dry air was seen within the water vapor imagery over Indiana.
Little change is expected overnight as high pressure along with
ridging aloft is expected to remain in place. HRRR tries to develop
some isolated shra late overnight...but this seems unlikely due to
little forcing available. Thus have trended toward mostly clear
skies overnight and warm conditions. Lows should be close to
dewpoints...in the mid and upper 60s.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022
...Unseasonably Warm Conditions Tomorrow...
Tonight.
Primary focus for the overnight hours will be on the potential for a
complex of storms that is expected to move across Wisconsin this
evening to push to the south. Current thoughts are that the complex
will dissipate before reaching northern Indiana unless the cold pool
associated with the complex is much stronger than currently
expected. Convective debris from the system along with enhanced
moisture though will likely create another situation where cloudy
skies arrive late tonight and possibly even some localized fog now
that dew points have risen to near 70 across much of the area.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night.
Generally dry conditions are expected for Wednesday and Wednesday
night with a non-zero threat for showers. Much like tonight that
threat is conditional on either an outflow boundary or differential
heating boundary creating a localized area for lift with synoptic
subsidence generally limiting the potential for convection. The
morning clouds will slow warming like today but expect that with
clearing most spots should reach into the low to mid 80s with high
80s possible across the western counties.
During the overnight hours skies will be mostly clear with quiet
weather expected. The continued unseasonably high low level
moisture will keep temperatures mild through the night with lows in
the low to mid 60s across the area.
&&
.Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022
Highlights...
* Rain chances this weekend, with thunderstorms possible. However,
confidence is not high on when highest chances for rain will be.
* Near normal temperatures return by early next week.
Thursday through Friday...
As an upper low retrogrades back into the southeastern USA,
subsidence on the northwest side of the system will impact central
Indiana on Thursday. This, along with easter to southeast winds,
will bring drier air into the area. Plentiful sunshine will boost
temperatures into the middle 80s most areas.
On Friday, higher clouds will gradually increase as the upper low
spins across the southeast USA. Forcing and better moisture will
stay to the southeast, so not expecting any rain from the system.
Clouds will keep temperatures down a bit, but highs will still be
the 80s.
Saturday through Tuesday...
The upper low will open up and move northeast with the main upper
flow, and this will allow a large upper trough to move in from the
northwest. Accompanying the upper trough will be a couple of
surface cold fronts.
Moisture will be decent with the systems, but there remain questions
of when the best forcing will arrive. Until the situation becomes
clearer, would prefer to just go with PoPs no higher than chance
category for any one period.
Cooler air behind the fronts will bring temperatures back to near
normal by early next week.
&&
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1134 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022
IMPACTS:
- VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period.
DISCUSSION:
Strong high pressure in place over TN and AL will continue to allow
a warm southerly flow of air across Indiana overnight and Wednesday.
Furthermore...ridging as seen on water vapor imagery aloft will
allow for continued subsidence. Forecast soundings and time height
suggest the occasional passing high cloud along with attainable
convective temperatures that may result in some diurnal CU
development on Wednesday. Still all of this will just continue to
result in VFR conditions through the TAF period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...Puma
Short Term...White
Long Term...50
Aviation...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
939 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022
Updated for expiration of Red Flag Warning this evening. Winds
are diminishing and will continue to do so this evening. RH values
have started to increase, with most 20 percent or more.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022
Key Messages:
1) Critical Fire Weather Conditions will continue across the area
through this evening.
2) Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast for Wednesday due
to strong winds and low humidity values.
3) Low chance of strong to severe weather Baca and Prowers County
Wednesday afternoon with large hail and strong outflow winds
possible.
4) Areas and dust will be possible through Wednesday afternoon.
Smoke is from the New Mexico wildfires and dust from strong winds
across the region.
Currently...satellite imagery shows an upper trough sitting along
the central California coast with broad southwesterly flow spreading
across Utah and Colorado. Skies are relatively clear across the
region. Temperatures are warm across the Plains with mid 70s to mid
80s. Winds are southerly with gusts 30 to 40 mph and combining with
humidity values under 15 percent to produce critical fire weather
conditions over the entire area. Satellite imagery also shows
widespread smoke lifting north out of New Mexico and into our
eastern Plains.
Rest of today through tonight...the upper level trough will slowly
begin to shift eastward spreading increasing southwesterly low
across southern Colorado. Increasing mid and high level cloud cover
will begin to impact the region late tonight. Low level flow will
shift more southerly across the Plains, helping to advect moisture
northward by morning. This will allow for humidities to recover
nicely near the Kansas border. Elsewhere, light flow and dry air
will remain in place, with humidity recoveries less than 25 percent.
Overnight temperatures will remain mild with 50s across the Plains,
and 40s over the San Luis Valley.
Wednesday...another dangerous fire weather day is in store for
southern Colorado. The upper trough will continue eastward,
spreading increasing southwest flow across the region. Widespread
wind gusts 35 to 50 mph will be possible by mid morning, and
continue into the afternoon. As southwesterlies kick in, it will
force moisture on the Plains quickly eastward. Most high-res model
guidance pushes the dryline east into Kansas, along with all
possible thunderstorm activity. The NAMnest is the outlier, which
fires convection over Prowers and Baca County by late afternoon,
quickly moving it east into Kansas during the evening. Lowered pops
over Prowers and Baca Counties based on the latest guidance and
dryline placement. If a thunderstorm should fire, SBCAPE values
around 2000 j/kg would support large hail. High cloud bases will
also promote a high wind threat. Shear is modest at 25 to 30 kts.
But at this time, it appears thunderstorm activity will be just to
our east.
For the Red Flag Warning, widespread strong winds, with gusts 35 to
50 mph are expected by mid to late morning and continue through the
afternoon. Humidity values will be low, falling to under 10
percent. This will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions for
the whole region. If a thunderstorm should fire over Prowers and
Baca Counties, the risk of dry lightning would be elevated. This
lightning could lead to fire starts, even if humidity values are
above 15 percent. Mozley
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022
Key messages:
1) Critical fire weather conditions will be in place for for most
areas late afternoon/evening on Wednesday. Extremely dry conditions
on Thursday will result in dangerous to extreme fire weather
conditions over most areas, especially over the plains.
2) Critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and early
evening are going to continue from Friday through Tuesday over the
mountains.
3) A few thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, may develop over
the far southeastern plains Wednesday evening.
4) Very strong winds with areas of blowing dust will be possible
over the plains and San Luis Valley on Wednesday and over the
central and eastern plains on Thursday.
5) Smoke from wildfires in New Mexico will infiltrate areas of the
eastern mountains and plains and this could reduce visibilities and
bring about poor air quality conditions through Thursday.
6) A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible over the
eastern mountains on Sunday afternoon. A chance of thunderstorms
will be possible over the mountains for Monday and Tuesday afternoon.
Detailed discussion:
Wednesday Night through Friday...
Humidity recovery will finally be at least noticeable overnight on
Wednesday, especially east of the I-25 corridor. However, we will be
under strong and dry southerly and southwesterly flow for all of
Thursday, as the main trough axis continues to push north through
the day. This southerly flow will continue to bring smoke from fires
burning in New Mexico into our area on Thursday. A robust
south/north oriented jet streak moves directly over our region on
Thursday morning, with the strongest surface winds looking to push
through south central and southeast Colorado between 3am and Noon on
Thursday. Gusts up to 45kts look likely at this point, especially in
El Paso County, the San Luis Valley, and the far eastern plains.
Unfortunately, even after decent moisture recovery out east on
Wednesday night, we are still looking at relative humidity values in
the single digits for our entire area, with some of us in the single
digits as early as 10am. This set up will lead to yet another day of
critical to extreme fire weather conditions on Thursday afternoon.
Moreover, HRRR guidance also shows dewpoints as low as -15 to -25
degree range over all the mountains, valleys, and most of the I-25
corridor during the middle of the day. With these values,
potentially dangerous fire weather conditions will be widespread
over these areas as RH values drop to 5 percent and below.
Some areas could see red flag conditions persisting for a few hours
after sunset, especially in the San Luis Valley and out east in
Kiowa, Bent, Prowers, and Baca counties.
Ensemble guidance shows good agreement that a transition to zonal
flow will set up for Friday, with clear skies and temperatures of
about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Daytime
highs in the 80s in the lower terrain and 70s in our mountains are
expected for Friday afternoon. We will remain dry, but zonal flow
will help to clear any remaining smoke out of our region. Winds will
still be high enough to lead to fire weather conditions on Friday
afternoon, especially along and west of the I-25 corridor. -Ehr
Saturday through Sunday...
A ridge is going to build in over the western states and then
continue to propagate towards the east and over the region
throughout the weekend. This will allow for the west to
northwesterly flow to continue in the mid to upper levels over the
area and result in dry conditions to persist under subsidence.
However, there could be enough mid level moisture present with
orographic lifting to produce a few isolated thunderstorms over the
eastern mountains, with the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains
looking like the best chance on Sunday afternoon. With the dry
conditions and westerly winds still in place over the higher
terrain, there will be fire weather concerns continuing for some of
these locations, including the San Luis Valley. Temperatures will
remain relatively cooler, closer to around the seasonal average, due
to a weak frontal passage from the tail end of a large major
shortwave trough downstream over southern Canada during the day on
Saturday.
Monday through Tuesday...
The dirty side of the ridge is still going to be overhead with the
axis over the central Great Plains. There is going to be some
moisture being advected up into the ridge from Mexico, however only
some weak troughing over northern Colorado due to a larger area of
troughing over the NW CONUS will allow for some thunderstorms to
develop over the major mountain ranges, especially Rampart Range and
Palmer Divide by later in the afternoon on Monday. On Tuesday, the
latest ECMWF has the mid levels being much drier than the GFS, which
has thunderstorm development over the mountains due to a more moist
mid level flow. Depending on which model verifies, this could either
help help to mitigate the threat of fire weather conditions if
enough precipitation occurs, or ignite fires due to lightning
strikes. Nonetheless, the ensembles display a continued downsloping
and dry pattern over the higher terrain with elevated fire weather
concerns. Temperatures will continue to warm as well, ahead of the
troughing. There will be more widespread fire weather conditions in
place over the higher terrain and there could also be spotty areas
over parts of the plains, especially along the I-25 corridor for
Tuesday afternoon. -Stewey
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022
VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB and
KALS, for the next 24 hours. Strong southerly winds have set in at
KCOS and KPUB, and will not be diminishing until after 02Z this
evening. With southerly winds, smoke from fires burning in New
Mexico could effect visibility this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon, especially at KPUB and KCOS, but right now we`re
expecting visibilities to remain VFR. Diurnal wind trends will
eventually set up overnight, before the return of more strong
southerlies again for tomorrow.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for
COZ220>237.
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM MDT Thursday for COZ220>237.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SIMCOE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...EHR/STEWARD
AVIATION...EHR/MOZLEY