Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/11/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
629 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022 .AVIATION... Another night of VFR conditions is likely across the region. Have prevailing MVFR for all sites through the overnight hours, thinking similar to last night. Some guidance does lower the probability of MVFR near the coast toward morning, but will stick with persistence at this time. Gusty winds again this evening and again tomorrow. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)... Shortwave sneaking in from the west is firing off convection along the Sierra Madre this afternoon. There is potential for any storms to develop across the state of Coahuila in Mexico to tap into the 3000+ J/kg CAPE and drift southeast toward far western Webb County. GFS/ECMWF develop activity just to the northwest of Webb county and move it east into much of northwestern Webb. HRRR shows similar in development, with TT WRF also showing development but diminishes activity as it reaches the border. For this, have included less than 20 POPs for the far western portions of Webb county this evening, mainly between 00Z-06Z. Should storms develop, strong to severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out with gusty winds and hail. Outside of this, broad ridging remains in place keeping hot conditions for the rest of today and Wednesday. Temperatures across the Coastal Plains will range from the mid-upper 80s to mid-90s, with upper-90s to near 100 degrees across the Brush Country. Overnight, warm and muggy conditions are expected tonight. Drier conditions are expected for tomorrow which should allow Wednesday night lows to be noticeably cooler, with lows in the lower 70s inland to mid-upper 70s along the immediate coast. LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Persistence is the rule regarding the upcoming forecast through the end of the week with hot and dry conditions continuing. The ridge will begin to breakdown and shift southward by Friday as an upper trough moves into the plains. However, the very dry airmass in place with PWs <1" will limit any potential for precipitation. The drier air will also limit heat index values to generally 100 degrees or less. The pattern changes slightly on Saturday with the ridge becoming more amplified over the Southern Rockies. This will place Texas in a northwest flow aloft regime which can often result in MCS development with any vorticity maximum that rides around the periphery of the ridge. Moisture increases as well on Saturday with PWs approaching 1.5" across the Victoria Crossroads. Thus there may be a slight potential for precipitation across the northeast Coastal Bend Saturday into Sunday, but confidence is not high enough to add to the grids or official forecast just yet. It certainly bears watching! The upper ridge builds back overhead by Monday, which will dry us out and allow temps to warm up for the start of the new week. Given the dry conditions, winds, and low RH values (less than 30%) across the brush country Thursday, Friday and Monday, elevated fire danger will be possible each afternoon. MARINE... Generally moderate onshore flow is expected through tonight, with weak to moderate flow on Wednesday. A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue along the Middle Texas coast through the week. Ridging aloft will help maintain dry conditions through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 90 73 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Victoria 75 94 71 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Laredo 77 98 72 99 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 Alice 73 95 71 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Rockport 79 88 78 88 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 77 100 72 101 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 75 92 72 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 79 89 78 85 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands... Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. GM...None. && $$ PH/83...AVIATION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
636 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Partly to mostly sunny skies will occur today under high pressure. A weak disturbance will provide a slight chance of showers Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the next chance of precipitation will be this weekend with the arrival of an upper level low from the east. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Ridging today will extend from the southern plains northeast through the Great Lakes and into southeast Canada. A mid-level impulse moving northeast up the western side of the ridge will spark showers and storms over the upper Midwest. While the local area will stay dry, some residual moisture and clouds from this activity will push into east central Indiana and western Ohio. Very dry air at the surface will hold firm over the eastern half of Ohio and northeast Kentucky, providing mostly sunny skies. Highs today will reach into the low 80s at most locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Ridging remains in place tonight. Lingering shallow 850mb moisture under the mid-level cap may lead to patches of clouds over the western half of the forecast area. In addition, the HRRR and the ARW both show elevated instability above the cap along with a southward-moving boundary from previous convection over Lower Michigan. Have added low- end PoPs in the northwest heading toward morning... but uncertainty is high whether this potential activity can make it far enough to the south to affect our region. Lows will be several degrees warmer ranging from the low 50s east to the low 60s west. Easterly flow aloft looks to push 850mb moisture back west of the region through the day on Wednesday, so skies will become mostly sunny from east to west. Warm temperatures prevail under the persistent positive height anomalies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Our current Omega blocking/ ridging pattern continues into Thursday, keeping the forecast dry and high temperatures in the low 80s/ low temperatures in the upper 50s. A cut off low out near the Atlantic will begin to retrograde back toward the Ohio Valley, pulling moisture along with it. As this system approaches from the southeast, clouds will build in from east to west Friday daytime hours. The GFS ensemble is a bit more aggressive pulling pcpn back into the forecast, especially for our eastern counties, as the closed low translates northwestward. However, the Euro/Canadian ensembles keep pcpn out of the area- ended up leaning toward the latter solutions and kept the area dry Friday. As the low moves into and eventually over the CWA, models come into better agreement for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday, with instability building into the afternoon. The H5 ridge/ remnants of the closed low move off to the east overnight Saturday into Sunday and are replaced by a digging upper level trough. The associated surface low, near Ontario, will drag a cold front through our area on Sunday, bringing more pcpn/ storms. Pcpn chances persist through the start of the work week as the low pivots eastward. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is an outside chance of patchy river valley fog at LUK late tonight, but have kept it out of the TAF for now due to persistence along with potential for scattered clouds expressed by some guidance. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1135 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 942 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Surface analysis late this evening shows Indiana caught between high pressure centered over the deep south and a weak trough of low pressure stretching from Eastern WI to Central KS and the TX panhandle. This was resulting a warm and humid southerly flow of air to Indiana and the Ohio valley. GOES16 shows mainly clear skies across the region with only some High CI lingering across Central Indiana. Aloft water vapor showed a large area of high pressure centered over the lower Mississippi valley with a ridge extending north and east across Indiana to southern Ontario. Subsidence and dry air was seen within the water vapor imagery over Indiana. Little change is expected overnight as high pressure along with ridging aloft is expected to remain in place. HRRR tries to develop some isolated shra late overnight...but this seems unlikely due to little forcing available. Thus have trended toward mostly clear skies overnight and warm conditions. Lows should be close to the mid and upper 60s. && .Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 ...Unseasonably Warm Conditions Tomorrow... Tonight. Primary focus for the overnight hours will be on the potential for a complex of storms that is expected to move across Wisconsin this evening to push to the south. Current thoughts are that the complex will dissipate before reaching northern Indiana unless the cold pool associated with the complex is much stronger than currently expected. Convective debris from the system along with enhanced moisture though will likely create another situation where cloudy skies arrive late tonight and possibly even some localized fog now that dew points have risen to near 70 across much of the area. Wednesday and Wednesday Night. Generally dry conditions are expected for Wednesday and Wednesday night with a non-zero threat for showers. Much like tonight that threat is conditional on either an outflow boundary or differential heating boundary creating a localized area for lift with synoptic subsidence generally limiting the potential for convection. The morning clouds will slow warming like today but expect that with clearing most spots should reach into the low to mid 80s with high 80s possible across the western counties. During the overnight hours skies will be mostly clear with quiet weather expected. The continued unseasonably high low level moisture will keep temperatures mild through the night with lows in the low to mid 60s across the area. && .Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 Highlights... * Rain chances this weekend, with thunderstorms possible. However, confidence is not high on when highest chances for rain will be. * Near normal temperatures return by early next week. Thursday through Friday... As an upper low retrogrades back into the southeastern USA, subsidence on the northwest side of the system will impact central Indiana on Thursday. This, along with easter to southeast winds, will bring drier air into the area. Plentiful sunshine will boost temperatures into the middle 80s most areas. On Friday, higher clouds will gradually increase as the upper low spins across the southeast USA. Forcing and better moisture will stay to the southeast, so not expecting any rain from the system. Clouds will keep temperatures down a bit, but highs will still be the 80s. Saturday through Tuesday... The upper low will open up and move northeast with the main upper flow, and this will allow a large upper trough to move in from the northwest. Accompanying the upper trough will be a couple of surface cold fronts. Moisture will be decent with the systems, but there remain questions of when the best forcing will arrive. Until the situation becomes clearer, would prefer to just go with PoPs no higher than chance category for any one period. Cooler air behind the fronts will bring temperatures back to near normal by early next week. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1134 PM EDT Tue May 10 2022 IMPACTS: - VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period. DISCUSSION: Strong high pressure in place over TN and AL will continue to allow a warm southerly flow of air across Indiana overnight and Wednesday. Furthermore...ridging as seen on water vapor imagery aloft will allow for continued subsidence. Forecast soundings and time height suggest the occasional passing high cloud along with attainable convective temperatures that may result in some diurnal CU development on Wednesday. Still all of this will just continue to result in VFR conditions through the TAF period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...Puma Short Term...White Long Term...50 Aviation...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
939 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 Updated for expiration of Red Flag Warning this evening. Winds are diminishing and will continue to do so this evening. RH values have started to increase, with most 20 percent or more. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 Key Messages: 1) Critical Fire Weather Conditions will continue across the area through this evening. 2) Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast for Wednesday due to strong winds and low humidity values. 3) Low chance of strong to severe weather Baca and Prowers County Wednesday afternoon with large hail and strong outflow winds possible. 4) Areas and dust will be possible through Wednesday afternoon. Smoke is from the New Mexico wildfires and dust from strong winds across the region. Currently...satellite imagery shows an upper trough sitting along the central California coast with broad southwesterly flow spreading across Utah and Colorado. Skies are relatively clear across the region. Temperatures are warm across the Plains with mid 70s to mid 80s. Winds are southerly with gusts 30 to 40 mph and combining with humidity values under 15 percent to produce critical fire weather conditions over the entire area. Satellite imagery also shows widespread smoke lifting north out of New Mexico and into our eastern Plains. Rest of today through tonight...the upper level trough will slowly begin to shift eastward spreading increasing southwesterly low across southern Colorado. Increasing mid and high level cloud cover will begin to impact the region late tonight. Low level flow will shift more southerly across the Plains, helping to advect moisture northward by morning. This will allow for humidities to recover nicely near the Kansas border. Elsewhere, light flow and dry air will remain in place, with humidity recoveries less than 25 percent. Overnight temperatures will remain mild with 50s across the Plains, and 40s over the San Luis Valley. Wednesday...another dangerous fire weather day is in store for southern Colorado. The upper trough will continue eastward, spreading increasing southwest flow across the region. Widespread wind gusts 35 to 50 mph will be possible by mid morning, and continue into the afternoon. As southwesterlies kick in, it will force moisture on the Plains quickly eastward. Most high-res model guidance pushes the dryline east into Kansas, along with all possible thunderstorm activity. The NAMnest is the outlier, which fires convection over Prowers and Baca County by late afternoon, quickly moving it east into Kansas during the evening. Lowered pops over Prowers and Baca Counties based on the latest guidance and dryline placement. If a thunderstorm should fire, SBCAPE values around 2000 j/kg would support large hail. High cloud bases will also promote a high wind threat. Shear is modest at 25 to 30 kts. But at this time, it appears thunderstorm activity will be just to our east. For the Red Flag Warning, widespread strong winds, with gusts 35 to 50 mph are expected by mid to late morning and continue through the afternoon. Humidity values will be low, falling to under 10 percent. This will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions for the whole region. If a thunderstorm should fire over Prowers and Baca Counties, the risk of dry lightning would be elevated. This lightning could lead to fire starts, even if humidity values are above 15 percent. Mozley .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 Key messages: 1) Critical fire weather conditions will be in place for for most areas late afternoon/evening on Wednesday. Extremely dry conditions on Thursday will result in dangerous to extreme fire weather conditions over most areas, especially over the plains. 2) Critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening are going to continue from Friday through Tuesday over the mountains. 3) A few thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, may develop over the far southeastern plains Wednesday evening. 4) Very strong winds with areas of blowing dust will be possible over the plains and San Luis Valley on Wednesday and over the central and eastern plains on Thursday. 5) Smoke from wildfires in New Mexico will infiltrate areas of the eastern mountains and plains and this could reduce visibilities and bring about poor air quality conditions through Thursday. 6) A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible over the eastern mountains on Sunday afternoon. A chance of thunderstorms will be possible over the mountains for Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Detailed discussion: Wednesday Night through Friday... Humidity recovery will finally be at least noticeable overnight on Wednesday, especially east of the I-25 corridor. However, we will be under strong and dry southerly and southwesterly flow for all of Thursday, as the main trough axis continues to push north through the day. This southerly flow will continue to bring smoke from fires burning in New Mexico into our area on Thursday. A robust south/north oriented jet streak moves directly over our region on Thursday morning, with the strongest surface winds looking to push through south central and southeast Colorado between 3am and Noon on Thursday. Gusts up to 45kts look likely at this point, especially in El Paso County, the San Luis Valley, and the far eastern plains. Unfortunately, even after decent moisture recovery out east on Wednesday night, we are still looking at relative humidity values in the single digits for our entire area, with some of us in the single digits as early as 10am. This set up will lead to yet another day of critical to extreme fire weather conditions on Thursday afternoon. Moreover, HRRR guidance also shows dewpoints as low as -15 to -25 degree range over all the mountains, valleys, and most of the I-25 corridor during the middle of the day. With these values, potentially dangerous fire weather conditions will be widespread over these areas as RH values drop to 5 percent and below. Some areas could see red flag conditions persisting for a few hours after sunset, especially in the San Luis Valley and out east in Kiowa, Bent, Prowers, and Baca counties. Ensemble guidance shows good agreement that a transition to zonal flow will set up for Friday, with clear skies and temperatures of about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Daytime highs in the 80s in the lower terrain and 70s in our mountains are expected for Friday afternoon. We will remain dry, but zonal flow will help to clear any remaining smoke out of our region. Winds will still be high enough to lead to fire weather conditions on Friday afternoon, especially along and west of the I-25 corridor. -Ehr Saturday through Sunday... A ridge is going to build in over the western states and then continue to propagate towards the east and over the region throughout the weekend. This will allow for the west to northwesterly flow to continue in the mid to upper levels over the area and result in dry conditions to persist under subsidence. However, there could be enough mid level moisture present with orographic lifting to produce a few isolated thunderstorms over the eastern mountains, with the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains looking like the best chance on Sunday afternoon. With the dry conditions and westerly winds still in place over the higher terrain, there will be fire weather concerns continuing for some of these locations, including the San Luis Valley. Temperatures will remain relatively cooler, closer to around the seasonal average, due to a weak frontal passage from the tail end of a large major shortwave trough downstream over southern Canada during the day on Saturday. Monday through Tuesday... The dirty side of the ridge is still going to be overhead with the axis over the central Great Plains. There is going to be some moisture being advected up into the ridge from Mexico, however only some weak troughing over northern Colorado due to a larger area of troughing over the NW CONUS will allow for some thunderstorms to develop over the major mountain ranges, especially Rampart Range and Palmer Divide by later in the afternoon on Monday. On Tuesday, the latest ECMWF has the mid levels being much drier than the GFS, which has thunderstorm development over the mountains due to a more moist mid level flow. Depending on which model verifies, this could either help help to mitigate the threat of fire weather conditions if enough precipitation occurs, or ignite fires due to lightning strikes. Nonetheless, the ensembles display a continued downsloping and dry pattern over the higher terrain with elevated fire weather concerns. Temperatures will continue to warm as well, ahead of the troughing. There will be more widespread fire weather conditions in place over the higher terrain and there could also be spotty areas over parts of the plains, especially along the I-25 corridor for Tuesday afternoon. -Stewey && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Strong southerly winds have set in at KCOS and KPUB, and will not be diminishing until after 02Z this evening. With southerly winds, smoke from fires burning in New Mexico could effect visibility this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, especially at KPUB and KCOS, but right now we`re expecting visibilities to remain VFR. Diurnal wind trends will eventually set up overnight, before the return of more strong southerlies again for tomorrow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ220>237. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM MDT Thursday for COZ220>237. && $$ UPDATE...SIMCOE SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...EHR/STEWARD AVIATION...EHR/MOZLEY