Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/10/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1055 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update/Marine .UPDATE... Issued at 1054 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 A line of showers and thunderstorms is located across portions of Central Wisconsin southwest into Iowa at 1045 pm. This line will likely dissipate upstream of Western Lower Michigan tonight given the loss of daytime heating and therefore overall instability. A few isolated showers will be possible late tonight and into Tuesday morning up near Big and Little Sable Points. Both 850mb moisture transport and the low level jet itself diminish considerably as the convection moves our way. So, have 20 percent chance pops for an isolated shower or storm around daybreak. Otherwise and increase in clouds will be noted as convective cirrus debris clouds move our way. In addition, models continue to want to bring some lower clouds into the area tonight and this can be seen occurring in Eastern Wisconsin and Western Lake Michigan at this time. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 - Increased potential for some thunderstorms Tue Night to Wed Models were showing a weak cold front approaching from the northwest later Tuesday night into Wednesday. The atmosphere is forecast to become rather unstable along and ahead of this front with projected CAPE values topping 1500 J/kg here in the CWA. The low level jet is not in a favorable position for us to see numerous showers and storms. The CWA is mostly in the entrance region of the low level jet. Still...if some storms could get going upstream in eastern WI later Tuesday...the may have enough momentum to roll into west MI later Tuesday night into Wednesday before diminishing. We will increase the coverage of the thunderstorm potential as several models like the 12z HRRR have trended toward more convection. - Well above normal temperatures expected into the weekend While any diminishing convection and associated debris clouds could lead to an increased uncertainty of max temperatures(mainly Wednesday)...the period overall looks very warm. Part of the reason for this will be the moderating overnight temperatures. As surface dewpoints eventually climb into the 60s...the overnight lows will remain relatively warm...thereby give each day a higher start to the diurnal rise. We are already about 10 degrees warmer than normal today. The warm air advection persists for most of the week. The warmest 850 mb temperatures are progged to occur on Friday with values around 20 deg C. This bump in warmer air occurs ahead of an approaching cold front. With a decent amount of sunshine expected we should be able to mix to that level which would support high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 away from the lakeshore. - Highest chance for storms is Saturday night Models are in relatively decent agreement in tracking stronger mid level wave and associated cold front through the area Saturday night. The organized lift combined with an axis of instability should lead to at least scattered thunderstorms. The timing is not favorable for severe weather especially with the diminishing instability...but that will need to be monitored. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 819 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 At this point we have VFR TAFs through the entire period from 00Z this evening through 00z Tuesday evening. High confidence that VFR weather will continue this evening and into the overnight hours. Latest analysis of ceilings and visibilities across the area reveals clear skies in Southwest Lower Michigan with VFR conditions upstream into Wisconsin and Illinois. The question mark is related to the ongoing showers and storms out on the MN/WI border. Models show this activity making a run at Western Lower Michigan in a diminishing mode as it moves our direction late tonight and Tuesday morning. The main time frame of concern is from roughly 08Z through 18Z. At this point think the low level moisture shown in the models is a bit overdone and have therefore held ceilings about 3,000ft. We will continue to monitor trends on the upstream precipitation and RH values in the models in the 2,000-3,000ft layer especially. Some models are indicating MVFR ceilings at most TAF sites at 15Z. We may see some decaying showers at MKG towards daybreak, but have held this out of the TAFs for now. Feel the best chance for showers will be late tonight and tomorrow morning towards LDM, so north of the TAF sites. Also, there will be a period of LLWS, especially towards MKG this evening from roughly the current time through 06Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1054 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 We extended the Small Craft Advisory through 800 AM. A strong core of winds aloft is mixing down in the nearshore waters with numerous sites reporting wind gusts between 20 and 30 knots. The Ludington Buoy has now seen waves increase to around 4 feet. We may need to extend the advisory into the midday hours of Tuesday to allow for the waves to dampen out. 40-50 knot winds are in the core aloft at this time around 2,000ft. By midday on Tuesday winds in the lowest 5,000ft should be 20 knots or less. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon May 9 2022 Surface temperatures have risen into the mid 70s for many locations in the Red Flag Warning area. Southeast winds were gusting mostly in the 25 to 30 knot range. The humidity values were generally between 25 to 35 percent...which is a little shy of the criteria. We still have a few more hours to go and the humidity will likely lower another 5 percent or so. We will keep the headline going given the forecast conditions. Looking ahead...the surface dewpoints and associated humidity levels will be higher for Tuesday. This occurs as a cold front approaches in from the northwest. As a fire weather headlines are planned for Tuesday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...Duke DISCUSSION...MJS AVIATION...Duke FIRE WEATHER...MJS MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
659 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 408 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 A Frost Advisory is in place across Sheridan county for a few hours early Tuesday. The guidance blend plus bias correction was the basis for lows around freezing. Temperatures this afternoon rise into the lower 60s. The light winds and weak sfc high pressure predicted tonight support a period of modest radiational cooling and lows near freezing. The High Wind Warning will continue across the same region until the approach of sunset. The potential for high winds however, would appear to be farther west across the northwest Panhandle, according to the RAP and HRRR wind gusts. BUFkit would suggest deep mixing to 600mb will produce gusts to 60 mph near Merriman. The SREF backed by the NAM suggests rapid moisture-return late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will produce stratus. The HREF probabilities are much less aggressive with the formation of stratus. The forecast remains uncertain for one reason: the NAM and SREF could be too quick or too aggressive with the moisture advection. Otherwise, the forecast tonight through Tuesday is uneventful. Sfc high pressure will build through nrn Nebraska and SD and this will place a stationary front across KS by Tuesday evening. The cloud and moisture forecast Tuesday night hinges on how far south into KS this front will located. The further south, the longer it will take to return north; presumably. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 408 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 All eyes are on Wednesday and time for storm development across wrn and ncntl Nebraska both days would appear to be 4 to 7 pm, perhaps along and east of highway 83 where a dryline will be lurking Wednesday. A strong cold front will move through the region Thursday and this will be the focus for storm development. The timing forecast is based on the NAM, down-scaled NAM and ECM solutions. If the GFS verifies, no storms will develop across the region either day. The blended forecast suggests isolated to scattered storm coverage both days. The storm mode Thursday is beyond the reach of the NAM which runs out through just Thursday. BufKit/NAM suggests splitting supercells Wednesday. Wednesday, the NAM and ECM suggest mostly isolated storm coverage generally along and east of highway 83. A surge of dry air should move into swrn Nebraska, according to the NAM. If this is correct, the dry air would intersect a warm front lifting through the Sandhills. Location of storm development will remain uncertain for this forecast but areas where the shear is strongest and the CAPE is properly balanced relative to the winds aloft would be the favored environment for storm development. The NAM and ECM suggest this favored environment will be along and east of highway 83. The models are in very good agreement amplifying heights across the wrn U.S. Friday through Sunday and this will place wrn and ncntl Nebraska in a northwest flow aloft. The forecast is dry during this time period but we have to watch for moisture return beneath the northwest flow. The GFS and ECM suggests this may occur as early as Saturday across KS. If the return moisture were to reach the high plains of ern Colo and WY, then rain chances could return to wrn and ncntl Nebraska. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 VFR conditions will prevail tonight and through the day Tuesday. Winds will become light tonight and switch to the east at 10 kts during the day Tuesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NEZ004. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for NEZ004. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Taylor
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
812 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 .UPDATE... 8PM Update No changes were made. Previous forecast is on track. SMW && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 214 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022/ DISCUSSION... The Mid-South will remain under the influence of an anomalous ridge over the next few days, resulting in generally hot and dry conditions. Both the NAEFS and EPS mean 500 mb geopotential heights are forecast to exceed the maximum of climatology Tuesday through early Thursday, with a gradual decrease late week as an upper-level cyclone retrogrades across the Southeast. This will spell above normal temperatures and generally dry weather in the short- term. Low clouds persisted much of this morning, slightly depressing temperatures. HREF probabilities suggest a strong likelihood that we`ll see similar conditions tomorrow with AM cloud cover and PM clearing. This may keep temperatures below 90F in most areas tomorrow, despite 850 mb temperatures above the 90th percentile. That said, even the NBM 25th percentile temperatures are reaching the 90F mark in some areas. Temperatures are expected to tick upward a bit on Wednesday, climbing into the 90s pretty much area wide. NBM sky cover is a bit on the low side, so will bump that up the next few days with the anticipation of a diurnal Cu field. The cut-off low currently off the Carolina coast is forecast to retrograde back to the west mid/late week. The ridge will build poleward as this occurs, spilling over the top of the upper-level low and settling over the Atlantic by the week`s end. Guidance is indicating a weak, back-door cold front moving into the Mid- South Wednesday afternoon and evening. This could provide sufficient lift for a few showers and thunderstorms as mid-level cooling erodes the subsidence inversion around 700 mb. However, confidence is very low at this time so will leave the forecast dry for now. Current guidance brings the upper low as far west as east TN before it gets picked up by a northern branch trough and quickly lifts into the Northeast. This trough axis swings through the OH Valley late this weekend, pushing another cold front through the Mid-South. Rain chances will trend upward this weekend with temperatures retreating back to near climatology. MJ AVIATION... 00Z TAFs Quite a spread in short range guidance regarding a repeat of morning MVFR CIGs around sunrise Tuesday. HRRR, NAM Bufr soundings, RAP and NBM guidance depict either scattered layer near FL025, or clear skies Tuesday morning. SREF Cig Prob consensus splits the difference between the aforementioned guidance and the nearly certain MVFR CIG scenario depicted by the HREF consensus. The synoptic pattern consists of a weaker low level jet under more robust upper level ridging, relative to this morning. With this and forecast continuity in mind, 00Z TAFs scales back the morning MVFR a bit, splitting the range of guidance solutions. PWB && .AVIATION... && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$