Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/09/22

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&& .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night) Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Main challenge in the near term is precipitation chances tonight into early Monday, then winds Monday. The region will remain situated on the east side of a broad upper level west coast trough throughout the period. A fairly decent shortwave will ride up the trough and over the Northern Plains late tonight and Monday, with just a quieter southwest flow then expected through Monday night. At the surface, a low pressure system will track from Colorado to central Nebraska/central South Dakota tonight, spreading precipitation across much of the CWA, mainly after sunset and through the overnight hours. Concern becomes the potential for thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, as a low CAPE/high shear situation sets up. CAMs are in fairly good agreement with the potential for convective development beginning around 03Z or so across central South Dakota, but not as much in agreement with if the convection holds together to affect the eastern CWA late tonight into early Monday morning. Will see a 40-50 knot low level jet develop over the east late tonight, and that may aid in keeping convection going across the east, which is hinted at by the HRRR and the HiResW-FV3. The other CAMs do not seem to agree and take the precipitation northward into North Dakota on the west side of the low. Will keep at least some low POPs in across the east for now, with the highest POPs across the west. Next concern is winds on Monday as we get on the back side of the low. A somewhat tight pressure gradient and good mixing should allow for winds reaching advisory criteria at times. Therefore, have issued a Wind Advisory for the entire area from mid morning into Monday evening. High pressure will then nose in from the west, with quiet conditions expected Monday night. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s across north central South Dakota, to the mid 50s across northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. High temperatures on Monday will range from the upper 50s across north central South Dakota, to the mid 70s across west central Minnesota. Lows Monday night will range from the upper 30s across north central South Dakota, to the upper 40s across west central Minnesota. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 The upper pattern starts dominated by an upper trough over the western CONUS and a building ridge in the midwest/northeast. This will enhance flow aloft before the ridge migrates far enough north and west that we end up primarily under its influence, before the trough to the west begins to migrate east. As it does so, it weakens, and then pivots into the western Dakotas and northwards, swinging two distinct shortwaves across the area for late in the week and weekend. At this timescale, details about specific impacts these features may have are unreliable, but it looks like mainly a west to east surface trough that will outrun its upper level support late Thursday/Friday and a secondary trough that will have limited moisture with a second dry line/cold frontal passage. In the interim, we have a weak surface/bubble high with some cooler temperatures in place to start things off Wednesday, before the eventual formation of a lee low that follows a progressing from the 4-corners to northeast Colorado and up into the western Dakotas. This Tuesday/Wed/mid-day Thurs period looks mostly unfavorable for surface based convection, though Wednesday there is a push of some 800-700mb warm advection associated with the building midwest ridge that could generate elevated convection. Profiles support MUCAPE in the 1-2000 J/kg range and strong mid-level flow thanks to the tightening height gradient between the two upper features. After that, 700mb temperatures increase up to 2 standard deviations above climo, which will need to be accounted for with discussion on severe weather potential moving forward, raising a level of uncertainty in how far east convection will progress associated with Thursdays system. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions begin the TAF valid period and are forecast to end the TAF valid period. Between ~06Z and ~18Z, sub-VFR cigs and/or visbies are forecast. There are also showers and thunderstorms forecast to impact all four terminals at some point during the TAF valid period, as a low pressure system works northward through the region. Behind this low, west-northwest winds are forecast to increase to as much as 25 to 30 knots, with gusts potentially up to 40 knots. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Monday for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051. MN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...Dorn
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1138 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1037 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Bulk of mid-level returns have been moving se-ward, into central/southern lower MI. Will keep an eye on weaker returns in the Ludington area. A skinny n-s band of mid-level returns is also seen over the east half of upper MI, nearing western Mack Co. This may have the potential to produce some sprinkles in eastern upper MI (the RAP in particular has been spitting out QPF from time to time in MQT`s eastern areas). Otherwise, more mid-high clouds than last night will keep temps milder. Did still tweak inherited min temps down slightly. UPDATE Issued at 839 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Persistent radar returns noted in w-central lower MI, in a zone of increasing mid-level theta-e advection, and with a weak shortwave shearing out as it lifts into lower MI. There is a ton of dry air below this, but it has been overcome. Ludington reports light rain out of an OVC110 deck, and with a 30f temp/dew point spread. Better forcing will move ese-ward with time, skirting the southern border of this forecast area. Am monitoring, but have not introduced any precip yet. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 ...Dry and warm conditions continue... Strengthening ridge axis overhead along with stubborn high pressure to our northeast will keep dry conditions going through tonight and beyond. Cirrus clouds are moving in from the west, overtopping the ridge axis. Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 60s west of I- 75 (thanks to a little downsloping), and low to mid 60`s on the east side and north of the bridge. With such dry low levels and great mixing up to at least 850mb we`ve seen dewpoints dropping into the low 20`s for some areas. We`ll remain dry with elevated fire concerns through the remainder of the afternoon and very early evening, before humidity rises a bit around sundown. Winds will have a slight uptick tonight as the gradient gets squeezed between the high pressure northeast and the low moving north into the Dakotas. For tonight`s low temps believe we stay milder than previous nights thanks to stronger winds and mid-high && .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 ...High Fire Danger Monday; Continued Warming Temperatures... High Impact Weather Potential...High fire danger Monday. The upper level ridge continues to strengthen through the period. However, models are trending that the ridge axis may shift just barely to east of the region. This may eventually allow for moisture from a trough tracking by to our northwest to make it into the region (later Tuesday into Wednesday). Low confidence of this actually occurring as the ridge should be hard to overcome so only slight to low chances for a few rain showers at this point (can`t rule out a rumble of thunder). Meanwhile, the primary focus is on the expected high fire danger Monday across northern lower. Looking at model soundings, there is still lots of dry air at mid and upper levels to mix down to the surface which should once again lower relative humidity values in the afternoon (20 to 25 percent across northern lower). The surface pressure gradient really tightens up leading to southeast winds of 15 to 20 mph sustained and gusts to 30 to 35 mph. It will be warmer as well with highs ranging from 70 to 77 across northern lower (highest on the west side due to downsloping) and between 65 and 70 across much of eastern upper. Of course it will be much cooler downwind of the Great Lakes where there is on-shore flow (specifically the Lake Huron shoreline and across southern Mackinac County). The combination of the low relative humidity, gusty winds and warm temperatures leads us to a fire weather watch for high fire danger. Temperatures Tuesday will be even warmer with highs ranging from the 60s north to near 80 southwest then the balmy 70s to mid 80s Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 High Impact Weather Potential... ...Summerlike Warmth; Increased Rain Chances?... High Impact Weather Potential...None at this time. Strong ridging remains centered just off to our east with more troughing to our northwest. The chances for the ridge to break down leading to falling heights/moisture from the trough making it into our neck of the woods are increasing in the long range. This may take until Saturday night or Sunday. In the meantime, more summer like temperatures through Saturday followed by temperatures closer to average for Sunday as shower chances enter the picture. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1138 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 VFR. LLWS Monday evening. High pressure is finally shifting east of the area, and se-erly low-level flow will increase in its wake. The incoming air will remain on the dry side, at least thru Monday. Lots of cirrus and a bit of mid clouds out there tonight, though that will thin out for Monday. Se winds will be gusty at times, especially on Monday. LLWS develops Monday evening, with strong south winds just off the surface. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Southeast winds ramp up tonight and especially Monday as the pressure gradient gets squeezed over us. Widespread small craft criteria are expected on all nearshore waters through Monday and into Monday night. A few gale force wind gusts are possible especially on northern Lake Huron. Winds become lighter through midweek. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 8 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ341-342. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 AM Monday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322. && $$ UPDATE...JZ NEAR TERM...STJ SHORT TERM...AJS LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...JZ MARINE...STJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
557 PM MDT Sun May 8 2022 .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE Wind and blowing dust will be the biggest aviation concern this period. SW wind at 20-25G30-40KTS possible until the sun sets. Blowing dust at KDMN has lowered visibility to 1-2SM at times. There is a dust plume blowing directly over KELP. KBIS, just to the north of KELP has gotten down to 4SM. All blowing dust issues should dissipate shortly after dark. Winds will also begin to slowly weaken after dark as the atmosphere decouples. Terminals will continue to see10-15G20 through morning, with the exception of KELP, which will stay gusty through morning due to mountain wave activity. An AWW has been issued through 12Z. LLWS is possible this evening once the winds start to subside. Wind picks back up Monday, albeit a bit weaker than today: 230-26015-25G35KT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MDT Sun May 8 2022... .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry, hot, and breezy to windy conditions can be expected for the upcoming week across the Borderland. Fire weather danger will remain critical through Tuesday, with very dry air and windy conditions in place. An increase in moisture and a slight chance of thunderstorms return to the forecast on Wednesday. Areas east of the Rio Grande Valley will have a slight chance of seeing some moisture. Otherwise, dry, hot, and breezy conditions will prevail into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow... Windy, dry and warm conditions are expected to continue this afternoon due to lee-cyclogenesis over the Front Range. The surface trough associated to this system expands across New Mexico leading to a tight pressure gradient. Thus, we are going to have windy conditions through the early evening hours. Once the sun sets, winds will start to slowly decrease. However, breezy to windy conditions are expected to persist along the eastern slopes of area mountains, the Black Range and the Sacramento Mountains. So, we have wind advisories in effect through most areas until 9PM. The Black Range and the Sacramento Mountains are the area of uncertainty overnight. The 700 mb winds show speeds in the 50-55 kts range between the GFS and the NAM, but the BL winds remain around 35-45 kts. The soundings of these models in the Sacs indicate the presence of an inversion with lighter winds, although breezy. Hi-res models including the HRRR, RAP and GLAMP have sfc winds just at or slightly below advisory criteria. So, I have decided to let the next shift choose if an extension of the advisory for the mountains is necessary. The breezy winds across the area will keep above normal morning lows across the region. On Monday, the lee-side low starts moving to the east-northeast, while the upper trough to our west slowly descend across the West Coast. Therefore, the surface gradient relaxes a bit, resulting in lighter winds across the area. Multiple deterministic and ensemble models show lighter winds. Winds will continue to be from the southwest between 15 to 25 mph. The strongest winds will lead to blowing dust in dust-prone areas near the International Border, including Deming. Visibilities could be down to 2-3 miles near Deming, otherwise visibility reductions should stay above 5 miles. Afternoon highs will be very similar to today. This will still keep critical fire weather conditions across most of southern New Mexico and far west Texas. && .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday... Stagnant upper level pattern will continue through most of the long term period as a blocking area of low pressure parks itself off the east coast. This will result in hot, windy, and mostly dry conditions for southern New Mexico and far west Texas. The region will remain under deep southwest flow, as a amplified ridge (to the east) and trough (to the west) slowly progress eastward. The forecast period picks up heading into Tuesday. The ridge to our east will slowly move eastward, in response, 500mb heights will gradually fall as the trough over the western CONUS continues to amplify. A lee-side surface cyclone will develop over SE CO in response to an increase in cyclonic flow. A somewhat packed pressure gradient will result, with breezy winds expected during the afternoon/evening hours on Tuesday. High temperatures will once again be in the low to mid 90s across the lowlands. On Wednesday, further amplification of the trough out west will allow the upper level ridge over the Mississippi River Valley to expand. The combination between the expansion of the upper level ridge and strengthening of the associated surface high pressure will result in a westward push and expansion of moisture. Clockwise flow in the low levels around the high, will pull moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico and advect it into west Texas. That being said, the dry line could potentially push into the eastern zones of the forecast area with a slight chance of thunderstorms east of the Rio Grande. Even though the chances as of now are pretty slim, it feels good to talk about moisture :). Global ensembles and their respected deterministic outputs are hinting at modest instability with CAPE values of ~500 J/kg east of the Rio and LI`s below 0, along with DCAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg. The modest convective parameters suggest a strong storm or two could be possible across eastern zones. But then again, we are still ~3 days out and its hard to pin-point where exactly the dry line will set up, so forecast confidence remains low. The remainder of the forecast period (into the weekend) looks dry, hot, and breezy as guidance suggests the return of deep southwest flow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue through most of the week. Very dry weather is expected to persist with minimum relative humidity generally in the single digits. We will have some moisture intrusions from the Gulf of Mexico, but not enough to make a real dent to the daytime moisture content. At least overnight recoveries improve during the second half of the week, especially in areas east of the Rio Grande. Temperatures will remain from above to well above normal which will contribute to the issue. The combination of dry weather, gusty winds and warm temperatures keep fuels very dry. The main factor deciding if we are issuing Red Flag Warnings or not, is wind. Breezy to windy conditions this afternoon/evening and tomorrow have warranted the issuance of said product. Most likely, we don`t need a red flag on Tuesday as wind speeds decrease quite a bit in intensity, although some isolated areas may still meet criteria for short periods of time. Wednesday and Thursday will be close too, but there is still some uncertainty as to how strong the winds will be. There is also a chance for some storms in areas east of the Rio Grande on Wednesday, but chances remain quite low. By Friday the upper trough that has been stalling in the West Coast finally moves east, which will relax the pressure gradient at the surface resulting in lighter winds this weekend. Therefore, fire weather conditions improve over the weekend, but it is still going to be very dry. Ventilation rates will be excellent through Thursday. && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 64 92 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 60 88 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 59 91 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 57 89 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 68 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 57 89 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 52 79 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 54 90 50 92 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 52 87 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 91 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 57 91 53 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 57 95 57 98 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 84 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 59 94 58 96 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 57 90 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 53 87 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 59 89 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 57 89 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 60 89 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 51 81 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 48 78 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 49 76 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 83 42 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 57 84 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 52 87 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 38 79 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 49 83 46 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 39 88 40 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 46 80 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 82 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 52 88 48 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 45 87 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 53 87 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 50 82 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for NMZ110>113. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ402>417. TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for TXZ055-056. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418-419. && $$ 99/99/99
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1105 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 GOES-16 early this afternoon shows a broad area of stratus lingering near and east of the I-29 corridor. Expect this area to regress back westward through the evening hours as low level WAA increases in advance of the approaching CO Low. Hi-res guidance continues to support an area of showers and storms developing in western and central SD this evening, but this activity should skirt just west of the forecast area. The bigger impact will be drizzle and patchy fog spreading north with WAA and stratus overnight into early Monday as the associated warm front progresses northward. Additionally, potential remains for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms from midnight through 6am or so. The most favorable atmosphere for severe wx will reside north of I-90 as the warm front lifts through. Plentiful deep layer shear aided by destabilizing air fed in by a strong LLJ will bring 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, making development of elevated storms possible. The main threats will be hail up to quarter size and isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph with steep mid level lapse rates and isolated DCAPE values nearing 1000 J/kg. Main impact in the daylight hours Monday will be the return of the gusty winds as a very strong, progressive sfc low tracks through the region, inducing a tight sfc pressure gradient. Further complicating matters is a strong LLJ at the top 1% of the NAEFS climatology bringing potential to mix 35-50 mph gusts down Monday morning across northwest IA and parts of southwest MN ahead of the sfc low. Issued a Wind Advisory for this portion of the region, though the timing may need to be adjusted on the back end depending on how long gusts persist into the afternoon. Expect stratus to initially blanket much of the region around sunrise, but drier air should erode this through the morning from south to north as the sfc low departs northeastward. Efficient post- frontal mixing with CAA behind the departing system should mix down a trailing LLJ as well. A majority of model soundings support gusts peaking 40-55 mph or maybe even occasionally higher at the top of the mixed layer across much of SD. Thus have also issued a Wind Advisory for this area from late morning through the early evening hours and bumped winds and gusts up to a NBM 90th percentile and HRRR mix. Despite the drizzly, cloudy start to the day, expect skies to mostly clear by mid day with some diurnal cumulus in the afternoon. Westerly winds and insolation will bring breezy highs ranging from the mid 70s to near 90 degrees. Given propensity to mix deeper/drier, tweaked dew points drier toward CONSShort. This does introduce elevated fire danger with gusty winds across much of the region, especially where fuels remain drier near and east of the I- 29 corridor Monday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Monday`s frontal boundary stalls across WI/IA/southeast NE on Tuesday, bringing continued dry and slightly cooler weather. Should be the choice day for outdoor activities for the week given lighter winds, lower dew points, and highs mainly in the 70s. We will see a taste of summer weather Wednesday and Thursday with highs expected to reach at least the 80s across the region. Record highs are looking increasingly likely south of I-90 on Wednesday and Thursday, when highs will peak above 90 degrees. Record warm low temperatures are looking likely Wednesday night as well. This occurs as broad WAA lifts hot, moist air back north, and upper ridging reaches heights near the max of NAEFS climatology just to our east. Fortunately our major swing up into summer heat from upstream ridge blocking won`t hold for long as a stronger longwave trough pushes into the Central U.S. by the weekend. Rain chances increase Wednesday through Thursday night with a few weaker disturbances. The upper jet moving in on Thursday could bring potential for severe weather if all of the ingredients align, as highlighted in the latest SPC outlook. However confidence in any details at this range is pretty low beyond calling for a breezy Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 MVFR/IFR stratus will continue to spread across the area overnight, and persist through late Monday morning. May also see areas of drizzle develop where stratus resides. Strong to severe thunderstorms will push from south central SD into east central SD from 08Z to 12Z, with large hail possible as well as erratic stronger winds. Southeasterly winds will increase overnight, gusting at 20 to 30 kts at times, transitioning to west/southwesterly on Monday afternoon. Winds then decrease and become northwesterly on Monday evening. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for SDZ038>040-050- 052>060-063-064. MN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Monday for MNZ081-089-090. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MNZ071-072-080- 097. IA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Monday for IAZ002-003-013- 014-022. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BP LONG TERM...BP AVIATION...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
920 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 .Mesoscale Discussion... Issued at 920 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 A deep 988mb surface low is currently located roughly east of Greeley, Colorado this hour, with a cold front stretching northeast from the low center. This cold front is draped roughly from just east of Sidney to just west of Valentine. Rapid moisture advection is underway across central Nebraska, with dewpoints now in the upper 50s along and southeast of a Broken Bow to O`Neill line. An upper level wave is currently swinging across portions of the Intermountain West, with increasing ascent across the Rockies and into the Plains. As the upper wave continues to push eastward this evening, the surface low will begin to eject northeastward out of northeast Colorado. As this occurs, convective initiation is anticipated near the cold frontal boundary. With rapidly increasing flow aloft deep layer shear will quickly increase to near 50-70kts above the effective inflow base. Any convection looks to remain largely elevated in nature, which suggests a primarily large hail threat. High-res guidance continues to hint at robust elevated supercellular development, largely in the 05-07Z timeframe. This looks to occur with a strengthening LLJ, with flow increasing to 35-45kts into the surface frontal boundary. Concerningly, cooling aloft will lead to quickly increasing MUCAPE as well as steepening mid-level lapse rates. Latest high-res guidance continues to hint at widespread 1500- 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE for storms to tap into aloft, and this should be enough to sustain convection amid the very strong shear in place. Where initiation occurs remains somewhat low confidence, though there appears to be a window for elevated supercell development across the western Sandhills into north central Nebraska near/after midnight. Any supercells that can develop should quickly move northeastward, with only a limited window of severe potential. Bottom line remains, confidence continues to slowly increase in the potential for elevated supercells with a large hail threat over the next 2-6hrs. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 992 mb sfc low pressure near Aspen CO this afternoon will redevelop across nern Colo and deepen to 985-987 as it is lifted north into SD by a 75kt 500mb jet tonight. The attendant warm front lifting through ncntl Nebraska is one area of interest for thunderstorms. A second area of interest is across nwrn Nebraska where a stationary front will be located. Storms in both areas, if they develop, will be mostly elevated. Winds aloft will become strong at h500mb, 50-65kt, representing a very strongly sheared environment. In fact, the bulk Richardson number in the RAP and NAM models is less than 5. This suggests the updrafts will be sheared apart defeating the potential for near-sfc based severe storm development. A check on elevated instability, however, suggests the potential for elevated storms in the NAM but not the RAP. The forecast favors the NAM/NAMnest which suggests an isolated severe storm or two may form across nrn Nebraska. The rain forecast tonight follows the short term model blend which is trending north maintaining the better chances across SD. Isolated POPs are in place along and north of highway 2 in Nebraska which increase to 40-60 percent near the SD border. All of this rain should exit the region by Monday morning. The models are in very good agreement sending a surge of very dry air into wrn and ncntl Nebraska Monday- RH falls to below 30 percent and west winds increase to 15 to 30 mph. As the 984 mb sfc low pressure pulls away from Nebraska Monday, the RAP shows 30 to nearly 40kt winds at 500m AGL developing across the wrn Sandhills. The GFS, HRRR and RAP show gusts around 50kts and the GFS BUFkit soundings show mixing heights approaching 600 mb which could tap into the 65 to 80 kt winds at that level. It is important to note the 600 mb winds shown are not unidirectional with the 700mb winds suggesting the potential gusts could be less. The culprit is the -32 to -34C h500mb cold pool the models show forming over the West Coast or OR/nrn CA. This is near record cold according to SPC UA climo. The wind forecast is guarded for this reason and a High Wind Watch is in place across parts of wrn Neb. Monday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 The next chance of severe weather develops Wednesday and Thursday. The models are in very good agreement developing sfc low pressure to the lee of the Colorado Rockies and lifting a warm front through Nebraska Wednesday. The warm front is the basis for isolated- scattered thunderstorm chances. The NAM, ECM and GFS suggest isolated storm coverage and this is because of the 12C temperatures and resulting cap at h700mb. The storm mode is within the forecast range of the NAM model and BUFkit suggests conditions will be favorable for longer-lived supercells. The 3000-4000ML CAPE and 40-50kt 500mb winds should provide a good balance for rotating updrafts. The storms develop Thursday when the sfc low pressure lifts north of Nebraska and pushes a dryline east toward ncntl Neb. Winds aloft strengthen a bit, perhaps 60kt or stronger at h500mb and the cap should weaken supporting scattered storm coverage, mainly east of highway 83. The forecast Tuesday, Friday and Saturday is dry and uneventful. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Multiple aviation weather concerns exist for western and north central Nebraska through Monday afternoon. Tonight, scattered thunderstorms develop in northwest Nebraska and spread east (affecting KVTN). Farther south, conditions remain but a stratus deck may briefly work into KLBF. In addition, low level wind shear conditions are expected. Higher confidence in low ceilings, including MVFR/IFR, lies across the north. Toward early morning Monday, a cool front helps to clear out the low clouds. It also results in a wind switch to west/northwest and a rapid upswing in speeds. The strongest gusts will be across northern Nebraska where gusts may approach 40 kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Monday through Monday evening for NEZ004-005-022>025-035-094. && $$ Mesoscale...Brown SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Snively
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
718 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 .UPDATE... 7PM Update No major changes were made to the previous forecast. Did add in a chance for some very patchy fog along the TN River Valley for a couple hours in the morning. Otherwise the heat is on for the rest of the week! SMW && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022/ DISCUSSION... A gorgeous day across the Mid-South today for Mother`s Day, few clouds, temperatures in the 70s and light winds in most places. Enjoy this weather while it lasts as the upper ridge that is building over the Mid-South will become entrenched over the area and will allow the temperatures to rise to record high levels across the area. An upper ridge builds over the area the next couple of days and an associated surface high stays in place providing little instability for clouds, yet allows the days to be warmer. Monday should have highs generally in the 80s with the exception of areas in Mississippi Delta in Arkansas and Mississippi. The upper ridge builds enough by mid-week to be an upper level high which will allow for temperatures to rise into the 90s. The current forecast has record high temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday. All four climate sites (Memphis, Jackson, Jonesboro, and Tupelo) either tie or break the record highs for Wednesday and Thursday. On Thursday the upper ridge begins to weaken as the upper level trough currently off the east coasts begins to move west and by Friday brings some relief to the temperatures, yet most areas will be in the 80s. The moisture through this coming week will have dew points in the mid 60s, which is lower than typical summer dew points--in the 70s--. Yet it will be hot and humid and people will have to be cautious in the outdoor activities. Especially since we haven`t really had warm weather this year. As the upper low moves west from the east coast there may be enough instability to bring some showers to the area. However, the different models are very consistent on this solution, so have left the PoPs low. TLSJr && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs Primarily a wind forecast over the next 30 hours, as southeasterly winds veer to the south and strengthen through a combination of tightening low level pressure gradient and daytime mixing on Monday. For the overnight, winds should stay up enough to keep fog from persisting too long at the ASOS vis sensors at MKL and TUP. HRRR and NAM Bufr soundings depict a broken deck around FL015 lifting up the delta after 12Z, but have held sky condition to scattered and flight conditions to VFR for now. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
654 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Updated for 00z aviation discussion. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Key Messages: - Chance for thunderstorms in western Minnesota tomorrow morning, with another round possible in eastern Minnesota to western Wisconsin tomorrow afternoon/evening. - Gusty winds tomorrow peaking at 40-45mph south of the Minnesota River. Elevated fire weather conditions in the same area. - Trend for hot weather continues for midweek with highs likely reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s by Thursday. - Occasional thunderstorms chances through the week with the most widespread activity Wednesday night. THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...Satellite this afternoon continues to show a thick area of low clouds over most of MN/WI with a small amount of clearing in the eastern Twin Cities to New Richmond WI. A synoptic scale trough is evident over the western CONUS on water vapor imagery, with falling h850/h500 heights likely in western Minnesota due to the trough moving eastwards over a developing surface low producing scattered showers and thunderstorms by 7am tomorrow morning. Rain chances have overall decreased for the remainder of today, although some isolated showers remain possible which at most would slightly disrupt any outdoor plans. Breezy winds continue and increase further as the developing system moves closer, with a Wind Advisory being issued for tomorrow south of the Minnesota River due to wind gusts of 40-45mph out of the south. Around sunrise tomorrow, the 18z HRRR and a few other CAMs are producing a few elevated storms which have the potential to drop severe hail, with forecast soundings from the RAP/NAMNEST showing 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE with mid to upper level lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km, which would be more than enough to produce hail if we can get a storm going. Due to a weak surface inversion left over from the night, it is unlikely that we see any significant storm gusts, however synoptic scale gusts will be increasing during that time frame regardless. This will mainly be an issue for our far western CWA from Canby to Alexandria heading towards northwestern Minnesota quickly, out of the area by 9-10am. A second round of storms looks possible later in the afternoon and evening originating near or east of the Twin Cities and primarily moving through western WI. NAM soundings show around 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE with 35-40kts of low level shear and 300-350 m2/s2 SRH due to strong surface winds. We do have curved hodographs but weak lapse rates at or below 6.5 C/km should keep our hail threat limited, with intense WAA also keeping a healthy amount of CINH in the area as well. The expectation is for weak storms producing a bit of lightning but no significant severe weather threats in western WI, but we will have to take another look once the system moves closer and we have some fresh observed soundings at 00z tonight and 12z tomorrow morning. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A brief period of high pressure will build across the region on Tuesday as a weak boundary sets up to the southeast. This boundary will be the focus for a small chance of thunderstorms. On Tuesday night this boundary will start to lift northward across the region, and so too will the small chances for thunderstorms. This warm front will continue to push north on Wednesday, so did decrease rain chances across the south. Highs should manage the mid 80s across much of the region. On Wednesday night the low level jet should lead to storms developing north of this boundary. There is still some uncertainty where exactly that will be, but chances are highest north of I-94. A few storms could be strong to severe and pose a heavy rain risk if training occurs. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Depending on how the convection develops Wednesday night, Thursday looks to be the warmest this week with afternoon highs close to 90 possible. A weak cold front will approach from the west Thursday night into Friday. This will bring more thunderstorms chances, and cooler, more seasonable air. The Storm Prediction Center has a small severe risk area along the MN/Dakota border. Looking ahead, this cooler air will last into the weekend as highs return back to the 70s for Saturday and 60s for Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Ceilings continue to degrade this evening, with MVFR conditions ongoing at most Minnesota terminals. This trend will continue through the evening, with IFR ceilings expected by the overnight hours at western & central MN sites and MVFR ceilings at MSP & WI sites. A band of showers and thunderstorms will move through west-central Minnesota early tomorrow morning, with AXN & STC the mots likely sites to see MVFR rain. There is a risk for a strong to severe thunderstorms during this time as well, especially at AXN. Ceilings will remain MVFR/IFR through the morning, finally scattering out as a front and wind shift moves through the region during the mid to late afternoon. There is a chance for another round of thunderstorms to develop along this front late tomorrow afternoon, with RNH & EAU the most likely sites to see any potential impacts from thunder. Winds will stay southeasterly overnight into tomorrow morning, with gusts around 20 kts tonight. Speeds increase tomorrow morning, with sustained winds of 20-25 kts and gusts of 30-40 kts likely through the morning and afternoon. A wind shift to southwesterly is expected during the afternoon, wit winds remain gusty into the evening. KMSP...MVFR ceilings are expected through tomorrow morning, with a small chance of IFR tomorrow morning. Ceilings under the 017 threshold are likely during the morning. Southeasterly winds will increase during the early morning, with gusts of 30-35 kts expected through the morning and afternoon. A wind shift to southwesterly is expected between 22-00Z with gusts finally diminishing after sunset. There is a low (10-20%) chance of thunderstorms developing along the frontal passage late tomorrow afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/IFR in SHRA/TSRA late. Wind SE 10G20kts. THU...VFR/MVFR, chc SHRA/TSRA. Wind SE to SW 10-15G25kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Monday for Blue Earth-Brown- Faribault-Freeborn-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood-Steele-Waseca- Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JRB/TDH AVIATION...ETA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
349 PM PDT Sun May 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS... The Inland Northwest will experience cool and showery weather much of the week. Temperatures will be well below average this week with areas of morning frost Monday through Thursday. Next weekend should be warmer with highs in the 60s on Saturday and upper 60s to near 70 on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Tuesday Night: There is good model agreement that a closed low over the Columbia Basin this afternoon lifting northeast into NW Montana Monday morning. With the low over the region today instability showers are covering a broad area with reports of mainly rain and graupel from the showers but also a few reports of small hail as well as mountain snow. The colder atmosphere hasn`t been as conducive to thunderstorms although a few strikes will be possible through the early evening hours. The best potential looks to be over the Okanogan Highlands, and from the Blue Mountains into the Central Panhandle Mountains with RAP analysis is showing the highest surface based CAPE values of 300-600 J/KG. Most of these showers will come to an end around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. But this won`t be the complete end. As the low moves into NW Montana some wrap around moisture swings into the Idaho Panhandle and NE Washington late tonight into Monday morning. There remains some model and ensemble disagreement with the coverage and intensity of this wrap around moisture. Some solutions show a wetter scenario with localized 0.25-0.50" of liquid precipitation but the majority shows a lighter precip event of 0.05-0.20". The GFS and GEFS are some of the wetter solutions and since the GFS is showing more moisture over northern WA compared to what satellite/radar indicate the forecast sides towards the lighter amounts. With snow levels dropping as low as 2000-2500 feet Monday morning some wet snow is possible but accumulations should stay confined to the mountains given the warmer ground temperatures of early May. For Monday afternoon and Tuesday a broad trough lingers over the region which will support mainly diurnally driven showers. There remains enough instability over the northern mountains Monday afternoon for a few short lived thunderstorms. Lastly...the trough over the area will promote cool overnight lows with near freezing temperatures for several locations. For where the growing season has started with near freezing temperatures a frost advisory has been issued for tonight/Monday AM. A near repeat performance is likely Tuesday and Wednesday morning as well. JW Wednesday to Sunday: After dry weather Wednesday, the next system moves in for the end of the work week, before drying out again next weekend. Overall the pattern looks somewhat progressive as ridge migrates by for midweek, with those continued cold and frost mornings. The next trough approaches the coast Wednesday night into morning Thursday, then starts to make its way inland Thursday afternoon into Friday. Timing could change as it is still several days out. Overall precipitation chances increase near the Cascades into Thursday AM, then expand across all of the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Temperatures support largely valley rain and higher mountain snow, but some snow could mix down to some valleys on the tail end of the precipitation going into Friday morning. On Friday the primary precipitation chances start to retreat to the mountains, but the forecast will need to hold onto some potential outside of the mountains in the unstable upper trough where hit-and-miss showers are possible. Overall instability is present but not overly intense, so the potential for thunderstorms is not absent but confidence is low at this moment. This will be monitored as a change in timing could bring the precipitation potential more in line with better instability. The weekend will see drier weather, aside from some lingering shower chances near the Idaho Panhandle mountains Saturday. The progressive pattern will feature some breezy conditions, especially Thursday and Friday afternoon. Winds gusting near 15 to 30 mph will be possible, strongest near the Upper Columbia Basin/West Plains south to the lower Palouse ane lee of the Blue Mountains. Temperatures will remain below normal through most of this period, but start to approach closer to or may be slightly above normal toward next Sunday. /Cote` && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: Shower activity will decrease after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. As an area of low pressure pushes east overnight a band of precipitation may drop south on the back side of the low towards the Spokane area and North Idaho Panhandle airports Monday morning. Models have big differences regarding intensity, coverage, and duration of the precipitation with low confidence in the details. Current forecasts follows a blend of the short term model guidance. Given cold temperatures a rain/snow mix is possible but will likely not accumulate even on grassy surfaces unless heavy (low confidence). Most likely the area of steadier precipitation will shift north and east of KGEG/KSFF/KCOE in the afternoon although the GFS is an outlier in maintaining precipitation into the afternoon. JW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 34 51 34 56 33 59 / 20 40 20 10 10 0 Coeur d`Alene 34 48 34 54 34 58 / 20 50 20 10 10 0 Pullman 33 49 34 53 34 56 / 20 20 10 10 10 0 Lewiston 38 56 38 60 36 64 / 20 10 10 10 0 0 Colville 34 53 33 57 32 61 / 40 50 40 20 10 0 Sandpoint 35 46 35 52 34 57 / 40 70 40 30 20 0 Kellogg 34 45 33 51 32 56 / 20 50 20 20 10 0 Moses Lake 34 59 35 63 35 64 / 10 0 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 39 56 38 60 39 62 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 37 58 35 63 38 64 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Monday for Coeur d`Alene Area. WA...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Monday for Moses Lake Area-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1030 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain established across the Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina through much of the workweek, maintaining generally dry conditions. Temperatures will gradually moderate as the week progresses. Rain chances will increase on Friday as low pressure begins to draw Atlantic moisture westward across the Appalachian chain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1020 PM EDT Sunday... ...Frost Advisory Expanded to Include the Southern Shenandoah Valley and the New River Valley... Skies are clearing west of the Blue Ridge this evening and are expected to clear east of the Blue Ridge overnight, possibly persisting in the Danville and northern NC area for several more hours. Winds are forecast to diminish down through the Shenandoah Valley, Greenbrier Valley, and New River Valley. Temperatures are dropping more than expected in these areas and easily could reach the lower to mid 30s if all of these conditions remain in place. Wind is the main concern to prevent frost formation overnight, especially in far southwest Virginia where it should remain higher. With all of this in mind, have expanded the Frost Advisory to include these additional areas further southwest. Only very isolated locations will potentially make it to the freezing mark, such as Burkes Garden. As of 750 PM EDT Sunday... Weather Conditions Continuing to Improve Through Monday... A large area of low pressure continues to spin off the Mid- Atlantic coast and will essentially move very little through Wednesday, then begin to drift to the southwest toward GA. This will keep the region in a cool, moist, northeast to east maritime flow over the next few days. As surface winds come around more to the northeast as opposed to the east, the pesky stratus layer has been eroding from the northwest and west. Not confident with night fall that this will continue at the same rate as currently, but the erosion has occurred a bit quicker than earlier expected, so will lean toward the optimistic side and accelerate the clearing west of the Blue Ridge this evening. With respect to the Frost Advisory and the potential to need to expand into the Shenandoah Valley, plans are to wait until the 8-9 PM EDT hour to assess the current state of temperatures, cloud cover, and wind at that point. Current thinking is that wind will be a bit too much for any widespread frost in those areas and not even totally convinced of the same in the Greenbrier Valley, although it will be a bit colder there and potentially clear. The other factor to watch overnight is the development of ground fog. HRRR really wants to hit this hard through the Greenbrier and New River Valleys after 06Z. Ground is moist, but again feel wind may be a bit too much for any widespread ground fog. In addition, river fog less likely given the water is fairly cold and relatively close to the air temperature at this time of year. As of 220 PM EDT Sunday... Surface observations indicate high pressure extends southward from eastern Canada through the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas. Northeasterly winds around the high continue to draw unseasonably cool air across our region, with temperatures this afternoon holding in the low to mid 50s. A stubborn layer of low clouds is limiting the potential for increased daytime heating, though satellite imagery indicates clouds beginning to scatter across portions of Greenbrier County in West Virginia, as well as Smyth and Tazewell Counties in far western Virginia. It is in these areas where we may see a late afternoon spike in temperatures into the upper 50s with prolonged sunshine. Low clouds will gradually diminish overnight to mostly clear skies by dawn as drier air moves in from the northeast. Can also expect wind speeds to decrease as low pressure situated off the Atlantic coast drifts further away. Given the cool airmass in place, some potential exists for patchy fog to develop toward dawn where clouds clear out. Better chances for patchy frost appear to be around the Greenbrier Valley where overnight lows will be coolest, and have issued a Frost Advisory as a result. Elsewhere, conditions appear to be less favorable for frost where temperatures will remain a little too warm or winds remain a little too breezy. Regardless, with temperatures for many across the mountains falling into mid 30s tonight, it may be prudent to play it safe and offer any sensitive vegetation some form of shelter from the overnight chill. Given more-abundant sunshine for Monday, daytime temperatures will be several degrees warmer that those observed today, albeit still maxing out below normal for the 2nd week of May. Look for highs to range from the mid 60s to near 70 across the region. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1236 PM EDT Sunday... A dry start the workweek with warming trend. A closed upper level low will linger over the western Atlantic Ocean Monday night into Wednesday. At the same time, the upper ridge will build northeast from the Gulf of Mexico to the New England. Surface Canada high pressure will build southward into the Appalachians to continue the dry weather. A northeast flow will continue because of the pressure gradient between the high center to the north and low center off in the Atlantic. Temperatures will moderate as the week progress due to subsidence and plenty of sunshine. High confidence in the Short Term Forecast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1236 PM EDT Sunday... Rain returns for the Weekend. Blocky pattern will persist across the East Coast into Friday due to a closed upper level low center spinning off the North Carolina coast that is trapped southward of an upper level ridge over eastern Canada. The low will slowly wobble towards the southwest. The Mid Atlantic region should remain dry into Thursday evening. As the low come ashore to our south, the chance of showers increase Thursday night into Friday. The combination of the ridge building out west and an upper level trough approaching from the Plains should end the Rex block during the weekend. This should allow the closed low to move northward Friday into Sunday. The weekend ahead looks cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Moderate confidence in the Long Term Forecast. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Sunday... VFR Conditions Expected to Return This TAF Valid Period... Synopsis: Deep upper low pressure will linger off the Mid- Atlantic coast for the next several days with high pressure anchored across the northeastern U.S. This pattern will result in a persistent cool, northeasterly maritime flow across the region for the next several days. Drier air will be advected southwestward into the region overnight from the northeastern U.S. allowing the pesky marine stratus layer to be pushed further south/southeast out of the RNK CWA. Eastern areas of the CWA will hold onto the stratus the longest and potentially much of the night. Ceilings: Clearing has advected southward into BCB/BLF/LWB this hour. Unusual to see clearing of stratus from this direction, but this is a result of the drier northerly flow from high pressure across PA/NY, while eastern areas hang onto the stratus better with upslope along the Blue Ridge. Drier air is expected to continue advected southwestward into the region overnight. VFR ceilings have returned to most areas west of the Blue Ridge as of 00Z and are expected to gradually return to areas east of the Blue Ridge overnight/early Monday. In addition, as drier air advects southward, ceilings will rise to AOA 030. KDAN and KLYH will likely hang onto the stratus the longest primarily in the 030-035 range. Visibility: At this time, not expected to be an issue. However, HIRES near term models, such as the HRRR, suggest ground fog may develop through the Greenbrier and New River Valleys toward morning. Confidence in this is low at this point given dry air advection from the north/northeast and persistent northeast flow. Will monitor, but not including any fog at the TAF sites at this time. KLWB would be the most susceptible to such due to clear skies and lighter wind and cool air drainage from the northeast. Winds: Remaining Northeast to East through the TAF valid period, trending a bit more toward the North late in the TAF valid period. Speeds 5-10 mph overnight, 8-13 mph Monday with low end gusts, especially east of the Blue Ridge. /Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate Confidence in Ceilings, - Moderate to High Confidence in , - High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed. Extended Aviation Discussion... The large upper low will remain off the Mid-Atlantic coast through Wednesday and then drift slowly south to southwest during the later half of the week. By the weekend into early next week, the upper low will become caught up in the westerlies and a fast moving short wave tracking out of the Midwest Sun- Mon. Showers and thunderstorms will return to the area at that time. In the meantime, however, dry northeast flow will remain over the region with upper ridging just to our west. Conditions will be mainly VFR through the period until the weekend. Late night and early morning patchy fog will be possible in the usual locations (e.g., KLWB and KBCB...) as the week progresses. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ010>014-017>020- 023-024. NC...None. WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for WVZ042>044-507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NF NEAR TERM...NF/RAB SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...RAB
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Some mid-level enhancement from convection to the north was able to squeeze some very light precip out of the saturated lower-level atmosphere early this morning and left some holes in the stratus deck into the early afternoon. One notable hole was in central Kansas where modest convergence was taking place and dewpoints were around 70. Bulk shear would be enough with ML CAPE near 3000 J/kg to support a severe storm if one can form, though RAP soundings look to be breaking down the EML rather aggressively this afternoon. Will need to watch this area for the next several hours. Elsewhere dewpoint depressions are likely high enough to keep drizzle or sprinkles from being more than brief and very spotty. The main story for most parties through the middle of the week will be anomalously-warm temperatures. A stout low-level jet will build in each night and continue to bring warm and somewhat humid air into the area. ESAT data continues to show 500 MB heights and mid/low- level temps near to at extreme levels through Thursday. Record high and warm minimums are quite possible (see below for current record details). There are a few other items to note however. Dry air is on track to surge northeast across central portions of Kansas during the day Monday as a strong surface low moves north though the northern Plains. Relative humidity levels fall into the 15-20% range in the afternoon with winds on the breezy side. Weather criteria support fire weather headline potential, but per coordination with fire weather partners, grasses have responded enough to recent rains to no longer support extreme fire behavior. Much of north-central Kansas will see Very High indices Monday afternoon. A weak cold front looks to hang up just north of the area Monday night and some guidance attempts to generate precipitation near it as far southwest as northeast Kansas, though inspection of forecast soundings show this to be unlikely. Have kept some small mention there for now. The next best precip chances come Thursday night into Friday night as multiple waves in the northwest CONUS break down the ridge and bring a cold front through. Upper support appears modest and severe potential is not great. Temperature finally fall to around normal by Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Ceilings are currently mostly VFR, though a few pockets of broken MVFR ceilings will linger over the next couple hours before gradually clearing out overnight. Winds will turn from southeasterly tonight to the south-southwest by mid-day tomorrow, sustained at 13 to 17 kts with higher gusts. Some 50 to 55 kt LLWS will once again be present overnight, as a southerly 60 kt LLJ ramps up again. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Daily record temperatures of note this week: Record High Record Highest Minimum ----------- ---------------------- Monday, May 9 Topeka 95 in 2011 72 in 1996 Concordia 100 in 1895 72 in 1956 Tuesday, May 10 Topeka 92 in 2011 75 in 2011 Concordia 98 in 1895 70 in 2011 Wednesday, May 11 Topeka 95 in 2000 69 in 2018 Concordia 93 in 2000 65 in 1970 Thursday, May 12 Topeka 93 in 1956 73 in 2018 Concordia 99 in 1956 72 in 1956 && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...65 AVIATION...Reese CLIMATE...65
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1143 AM PDT Sun May 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS....Widespread strong winds will diminish tonight. Additional weather systems will continue to move through the Great Basin through midweek, with temperatures trending cooler and blustery weather persisting. A warming trend will commence for the second half of the week with winds easing as high pressure gradually rebuilds across the region. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday. Strong winds will continue to impact the region through the evening and early overnight hours across the region as an upper level trough digs south. The strongest winds should be centered around 00Z as a strong vorticity lobe advects into the southern Great Basin. Areas of concern through the evening for wind impacts: [LAS VEGAS/SPRING MTS/SOUTHERN NV]: Models continue to show the strongest west winds pushing through the valley around 00Z, though there continues to be discrepancy in the model wind speed forecasts and how far west the stronger winds will spread. Hi-res local model cross-sections are a bit more favorable for downslope winds compared to previous runs with west winds pushing through at least Red Rock and Summerlin around 3-6 PM. The 15-min HRRR brings the strongest wind gusts through Harry Reid Airport around the same time. NBM probabilities for wind gusts over 60 MPH have come up for all areas west of the I-15, but remain low for the east portion of the valley. Given this meterologist`s past experience in forecasting west wind events in Las Vegas, I have moderately high confidence that strong winds that mimic waves that will move across the entire valley at times this afternoon and evening, with gusts coming up quickly followed by a lull before another jump in wind gusts (and rinse/repeat through the evening hours). This wave pattern is noted on a few wind model fields. Mentioning all this just because even if all portions of Las Vegas don`t hit 60 MPH, the nature eof the winds could drive impacts and people should be prepared for sudden gusty winds and strong crosswinds, especially on north-south roadways in and around the valley. The Spring Mountains and Red Rock will see strong winds through the evening. Gusts up to 60MPH may cause downed trees and power outages, and more importantly dry conditions would mean any fire starts would quickly spread. Further south, gusty winds across I-15 and US-95 are likely this afternoon with dust concerns as winds push through the dry lake beds in southern Nevada. Lake Mead will see west winds gusting 40-50MPH this afternoon and thus dangerous waves are likely and any light or small boats on the lake shores could easily be pushed into the lake as winds come up. [OWENS VALLEY]: Continued high confidence for sudden wind gusts across the highway and difficult travel through 7-9PM. Best downslope potential is after 21Z through 02Z. [DEATH VALLEY]: Some of the wind models bring a push of north winds through Death Valley after 21Z. While the wind speed forecast has not changed with this wind push, if these winds come through suddenly it may result in additional impacts due to dust in Death Valley and areas southwest of them this afternoon after 3PM. [MOHAVE NORTH OF I-40]: This is the area where winds and impacts may outperform as models continue to have a wide spread on peak winds and how long they will last. Currently thinking that any strong winds will be short lived, and a Wind Advisory communicated well the risk with these winds, but low confidence in those details. In addition, if sudden winds or stronger winds develop, dust will likely impact areas north and west of Kingman. The best chance for 60 MPH or greater gusts will be through the Arizona Strip in the Mt Trumbull and northern Hualapai Nation region. Winds will diminish tonight. No changes were made to the wind headlines and for the most part they look to be in good shape. San Bernardino may drop below High Wind Warning criteria later this evening but wind impacts will continue through the night and potentially even Monday morning. Winds on Monday will be breezy again as the upper level trough that brought winds today continues to meander through the region, but the pressure gradient is expected to slack somewhat overnight and thus winds will be lower tomorrow compared to today. The best chance for wind impacts will be in the West Mojave Desert, southern Inyo County, and southwest Nevada. A wind advisory may be needed for Monday in these areas. In addition to the wind advisory, critical fire conditions are possible on Monday in portions of the region as it will continue to be dry, though winds will be marginal for another Red Flag Warning. Will hold off adding more headlines at this time and will let that decision fall to later shifts as impacts on Monday should be minor and we should first see how today`s wind event pans out. Temperatures will continue their downward trend on Monday, with high temperatures 5-10 degrees colder on Monday compared to today. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday. Model solution clusters show very good agreement that the trough which plagues our region with wind through the short term will still be in place along the West Coast Tuesday, leading to still more southwest winds and below normal temperatures areawide. Wind Advisories cannot be ruled out. Wednesday looks similar, with unseasonably cool temperatures and gusty winds, possibly reaching advisory levels, as the trough tracks slowly east. A solid majority of model solutions then show the trough minoring out and lifting away, leading to rising heights Thursday through Saturday, which would drive temperatures back above normal, but more importantly, provide a respite from the relentless springtime winds. There have been a few events already this spring in which long range models de-emphasized low pressure heading toward the West Coast, only for future model runs to finally catch on to a deeper, cooler, and windier solution which ended up verifying. So, while the good model agreement noted above justifies optimism, it is not a guarantee. && .FIRE WEATHER...Strong southwest winds will continue through this evening, with wind gusts of 40-60 mph expected across much of the region. These winds will be combined with low humidity and dry fuels resulting in widespread critical fire weather conditions. Winds will ease late tonight but resume each afternoon through at least Wednesday, though they will not be as strong as today`s winds. Near- critical fire weather conditions possible each day through midweek before lighter winds return for the second half of next week. Cool temperatures are expected through Wednesday before temperatures quickly warm the second half of the week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Significant wind event still expected today across the Las Vegas Valley impacting the Harry Reid terminal. Initially southerly wind gusts will shift to the southwest early in the afternoon and increase in gust high as 50 kts by the middle of the afternoon. Airport Weather Warnings will be likely if these gusts indeed come to fruition this afternoon. Additionally, BLDU could reduce visibility to MVFR conditions during peak winds. These winds should begin to subside just before sunset and gradually decrease through the evening and overnight hours. A shift to northwest winds is expected early tomorrow morning, but confidence is low in direction as winds will be light. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Significant wind impacts are expected over the next 12 hours for much of the region, resulting in poor flying conditions for all regional terminals. KDAG will maintain westerly winds throughout but likely will experience lowered visibility due to BLDU and gusts over 50 kts this afternoon. KBIH will continue to see strong downslope and potential low level shear/rotor issues resulting in significant turbulence in addition to strong surface winds. KIFP/KEED should be more minor regarding winds but will still remain gusty over 30 kts. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM/FIRE...Nickerson LONG TERM...Morgan AVIATION...TB3 For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: or follow us on Facebook and Twitter