Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/08/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
847 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022
Our cold front roared through a little faster than expected. The
strongest winds are already moving out of our area. The weak
showers over the mountains should mostly dissipate as they move
eastward, though some sprinkles are possible, mainly north of
Denver. There are also some sprinkles/virga near the eastern
border, but the threat of thunder should be limited to Sedgwick
and Phillips counties, and the severe threat shifted quickly east
with the dryline. Only minor changes are needed at this time for
timing.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022
Satellite shows increasing high clouds across the forecast area,
while a cold front is moving east across Wyoming and northwest
Colorado. This cold front will push across the plains early to mid
evening, with gusty southwest winds ahead of the front shifting to
northerly but still quite gusty behind it for an hour or two.
Winds and critical fire weather conditions will then subside.
There is still a threat of an isolated severe storm over the
northeast corner of the state after 6 pm this evening as the cold
front intersects with the dryline. Dewpoints in the upper 40s and
lower 50s were lurking just to the east, and some convective
allowing models bring this moisture and MLCAPE of 1000 J/kg back
to the far northeast corner (Sedgwick and Phillips Counties).
Large hail/wind would be the primary threat if a stronger storm
develops, as LCLs are rather high limiting the tornado threat
despite strong low level 0-1 km shear.
Meanwhile, mountain showers will become more numerous mainly
north of the I-70 Corridor as cold, moist advection occurs. We
could see a couple inches of snow tonight in the higher elevations
along/north of a Rabbit Ears Pass to RMNP line. Isolated showers
and/or a high based storm will be possible elsewhere, but this
would be mostly virga.
On Sunday, temperatures will be cooler thanks to tonight`s cold
front. It will still become windy from Park County eastward
across the Palmer Divide area with gusts of 30 to 45 mph again.
See Fire Weather section. Farther north (roughly from Denver to
the north and east across the plains), winds should be lighter
thanks to a cooler and slightly more stable airmass behind the
front. A developing Denver Cyclone/shear zone could also delay
mixing, and HRRR and several other models are likely overdoing the
mixing and westerly wind transition at least through mid/late
afternoon. A few more showers/high based storms will be possible
over the northern border area in proximity to the upper level
trough speed max.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022
Strong southwesterly flow aloft is expected for the CWA Sunday
night into early Tuesday with upper ridging over the Mississippi
Valley and upper troughing over the northwestern United States.
The flow aloft will decrease and become more southerly later on
Tuesday and Tuesday night as the upper trough digs into the Great
Basin. There is some synoptic scale upward energy progged for the
CWA Sunday night, then downward energy is expected Monday. Benign
energy is progged after that well into mid week.
Moisture-wise, there is some around in the lower levels of the
mountains and northern border areas Sunday night. Otherwise, it
looks very dry through Tuesday night. The low level winds are
dominated by downsloping Monday. There may be some weak cooling
and easterly low level flow on Tuesday.
So the main weather issue will be elevated to critical fire weather
conditions all week, especially over the southern half of the CWA
where wind speeds look greatest.
Temperatures look a bit cooler on Monday compared to Sunday. with
slightly cooler readings again on Tuesday.
For the later days, Wednesday through Saturday, there is still the
south-southwesterly flow aloft for the CWA Wednesday. The upper
trough weakens significantly and moves across on Thursday, then a
bit better looking upper trough moves in later Friday and Saturday
morning. Upper ridging is in place later Saturday. Moisture is
lacking, but there is a slight increase Thursday into next
weekend. Just enough to leave the "isolated" pops going. Again,
Thursday and Friday look to have elevated and critical fire
weather conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 821 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022
VFR through Sunday. There is a chance of ceilings around 6000 ft
AGL for a few hours between 05z and 09z. Winds will decrease this
evening and turn easterly, then increase from the south or
southeast on Sunday with gusts up to 25 knots at KDEN/KAPA after
21z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022
Red Flag conditions will continue into mid evening from South
Park and the Southern Front Range Foothills into the Palmer
Divide, while at the same time a cold front will drop south across
the plains with shifting and gusty winds. The Red Flag should be
allowed to expire at 9 pm as winds slowly subside with increasing
humidity behind the front, while also slowly subsiding over the
higher elevations with the loss of daytime heating and mixing.
Good humidity recovery can be expected across the plains
overnight, while only moderate recovery is anticipated in the
foothills and Park County.
Critical Red Flag conditions are expected to develop again on
Sunday, this time mainly confined to areas from South Park across
the Palmer Divide and eastward through about Lincoln County.
Farther to the north and east, the frontal passage and slightly
cooler weather will favor less mixing and lighter winds across
the rest of the plains. Denver into eastern Adams, Arapahoe, and
Washington Counties could be on the edge toward late afternoon,
while areas farther north will have lighter winds and sufficient
humidity.
A dry airmass will be in place over the forecast area most of
next week. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are
expected, especially over the south half of the forecast area
through Tuesday, then over most of the forecast area Wednesday
through Friday. Nuances with the wind speeds through the week will
dictate where the Red Flag Watches and Warnings will be posted.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ214-216-
238>249.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ214-216-
241-246-247.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch/RJK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
639 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday/
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022
...Warmer with scattered storms Sunday
...Major warming next week with svr storm chances Monday Night
...Some cooling late in the period - but still above normal
Confidence Short Term: Medium to High
Very blocky pattern continues over the CONUS. Great Lakes surface
ridge extends back into Iowa this morning with plenty of sun and
generally pleasant conditions. Rockies low already taking shape over
MT with a push of warm air advection into the Plains this morning.
An elongated sfc warm front extends from the MT low to just south of
Omaha at 12z. The upper level pattern still needs a detective to see
all the details this morning. H850 subjective analysis continues
with a blocking ridge from southern Hudson Bay southwest into the
mid Mississippi River Valley. Along the east coast our old system
from last week is basically stuck with a double barrel low over the
mid Atlantic Coast and an old low near Newfoundland. Meanwhile, a
continuous stream of energy from the Pacific is cascading into the
west coast and Rockies like a multiple car pileup. Moisture is
currently lacking this morning over eastern Iowa through the Ohio
River Valley and north to northern WI and the remainder of the Great
Lakes. A large and amplifying trough to our west is already pulling
moisture north in a narrow ribbon at H850 that stretches from
southern TX north to western North Dakota. The deeper plume of +10C
to the Texas Panhandle at 12z. So far there are no strong waves to
spark any convection immediately to our west. This morning a weak
wave is passing through the flow at Omaha with a small increase in
H850 dewpoints to +5C into central Iowa. The next real system is
located over northern Texas and this will be the wave that helps
generate storms overnight tonight; that along with typical diurnal
low level jet speed oscillation peaking around 10 to 13z Sunday.
Tonight will see an increase in convection to our west with storms
firing in the amplifying H850 flow. The Texas wave will begin to
lift northeast with an H850 speed max arriving into western Iowa by
12z. Though instability will remain limited yet overnight, some
scattered thunderstorms will likely occur in the southwest/west by
morning. The region should remain dry overnight along and east of
I35. Sunday will see the convection trying to edge east during the
day as the entire trough begins a slow east shift into the afternoon
hours. The upper level ridge over Canada is not expected to move
much and might even retrograde a bit. This will support scattered
convection at least through the day tomorrow as the H850 gradient
increases for a time. GFS PWATs will increase to 1 to 1.25 inches by
12z over the west half of the area with warm cloud processes
beginning to increase as well. Modest 0-3km CAPE along with warm
cloud depths of 12000+ feet may briefly support higher efficiency
rainfall tomorrow. The real question is the extent of the convection
into central and eastern Iowa by afternoon and how much, if any the
convection can build east prior to decaying in the morning hours.
Based on the GEFs and the blocking ridge, it appears that the HRRR
and GFS are more correct in keeping the heavier showers/storms more
confined to the northwest/west of I35 corridors; with perhaps some
decaying showers drifting east during the day. Tonight with
increasing winds and some clouds returning with showers west, lows
will remain in the lower to mid 50s over the area. Sunday will see
temperatures tempered by clouds and scattered showers/few storms and
mainly in the 60s to around 70 in the south. Sunday night will see
the first surface low and accompanying upper level warm air
advection shoot north into MN with overnight mins not dropping too
far with increasingly warmer air overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM.../Sunday night through Saturday/
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022
Confidence: Medium
Sunday nights increasing southerly flow will set the stage for a
stronger surge of warm air through the column. H850 temperatures are
expected to reach 18 to 22C by 00z Tuesday with strong mixing ahead
of an incoming trough. Dewpoints are expected to reach the upper
60s to around 70 by afternoon over the eastern half of our area
along with highs in the mid to upper 80s. MUCAPE is forecast to rise
to 3000 to +3500 j/kg by late day. However, we remain capped at H700
through at least 20 to 23z with temperatures of 11 to 14C from I35
east to the IA IL border. By 00z and into the evening hours, cooling
aloft will erode the cap and both deterministic GFS/Euro models are
hinting at a back-building MCS along the trough into southern Iowa
overnight into early Tuesday morning. The current GFS sounding
forecast MBE is only 10kts later in the evening at ALO. Right now
PWATs are forecast to increase Monday evening/night to around
1.75 in a narrow ribbon along the stalled front and warm cloud
depths expected to reach +13 kft. Any convection that takes hold
along that boundary may be able to be very efficient rainfall
producers for the eastern and northeast third of the forecast area
and possibly farther northeast into southeast MN and southwest
WI/northwest IL. Though the deterministic Euro is lagging both the
NAM/GFS, there is a forecast of strong warm air advection from
Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Wherever the nose of this
sets up, there will be an increasing risk of training storms as
well as a few severe storms with wind/hail the main threats. This
will obviously depend on a number of mesoscale/synoptic elements
coming together at the right time. Though we are still 2 days out,
it is worth noting the possibility but for now not get overly
excited. Prior to this, Monday itself will be the hottest day of
the year so far in terms of heat and humidity with heat indices in
the upper 80s to around 90 as well. As we move into Tuesday and
Wednesday, the boundary will lift back north resulting in another
round of storms prior the the boundary lifting far enough into MN
that the area is left mainly very warm and humid. With the area
being influenced by a diurnally driven rise and fall of an H700
cap around +10C plus sufficient moisture and weak impulses of warm
air advection through the region, there will remain a low risk of
late afternoon or evening thunder. Much of the week into the
weekend the area will remain in a moderately high PWAT regime.
This will tend to bring more efficient downpours in any airmass
storms that can fire. Though the north would be more favored to
experience scattered convection from time to time, some lingering
outflow boundaries may also aid in storm development resulting in
lower PoP confidence day to day this upcoming week. Toward the end
of the week into Saturday, vast differences are showing up in the
forecast. The Euro is forecasting a stronger wave is forecast to
drive north from the western Plains into southern Canada with
pulls a front east of the area on Friday while the GFS show the
front stalling out again near Iowa. At this point, a less
progressive movement in pattern is still preferred. Plenty of time
to address the details over the next week. Warm weather will
continue and even if the front edges east, highs will remain well
above normal with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to lower
60s.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening/
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022
Conditions will be clear and breezy tonight before clouds and
showers begin to make their way in towards the early morning
hours. The low level jet will also kick in overnight, bringing
some low level wind shear to a few of the TAF sites. Showers and
vicinity thunderstorms are expected to start around 12z to 13z,
followed by some MVFR ceilings at the end of the TAF period.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...Krull/Dodson
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
716 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022
Heat indices are below the 100 degree mark for the most parts
with values ranging from 102 to 106 degrees to the south and
southwest of San Antonio. These values are below Heat Advisory
criteria and therefore the Heat Advisory earlier issued for parts of
south central Texas has been allowed to expire at 7 PM CDT.
The heat wave continues on Sunday and Monday with additional Heat
Advisories possible next few days as temperatures range from the
upper 90s and up to 105 degrees with heat indices ranging from 103
to 109 along and east of Intestate 35 and the Winter Garden region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022
Mostly clear skies are currently prevailing across South-Central
Texas at this time. Southwest winds continue in the Hill Country and
temperatures there have warmed into the middle 90s with 102 being
reported at Llano as of 1 PM. Elsewhere around the region
temperatures are in the lower 90s. Still expecting high temperatures
today will reach into the upper 90s to 105 degrees with max heat
index values in the 99-107 degree range for most locations. Due to
the abnormally high temperatures this early, a Heat Advisory
continues for the entire area.
Only a couple of the high-res models continue to show isolated
convection near Llano, Burnet, Gillespie, and Blanco Counties later
this afternoon near the dryline position. This remains a very low
probability solution as the HRRR and TTU-WRF continue to show a dry
solution. However, if a storm is able to develop, the high
temperatures and larger dewpoint depressions will lead to high
instability for the potential for large hail and damaging winds.
Will continue to show a 20 PoP through from 4-9 pm to account for
this threat. SPC also keeps this area in a marginal risk for severe
storms in this area, but again this is more of a conditional threat
for the small likelihood that something is able to develop.
Nocturnal low-clouds are expected for much of the area once again
tonight with lows in the lower to middle 70s. Another abnormally hot
day is expected tomorrow with highs in the upper 90s to near 105
with afternoon heat indices in the 99-109 degree range. Will let the
overnight shift decide on a new Heat Advisory for tomorrow. While
convection chances over the Hill Country near the dryline tomorrow
remain low, there is again a very small chance for a storm, but the
best probabilities are north of the area. Will leave the forecast
dry for late tomorrow afternoon. More nocturnal stratus is expected
tomorrow night with lows a bit warmer, in the middle to upper 70s
for much of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022
Though the ridge axis and attendant compressional warming responsible
for this weekend`s summer-like heat will be sliding to our east, one
more day of widespread high temperatures in the mid-upper 90s is
expected Monday. The warmest highs will be found over the Rio Grande
Plains and Winter Garden, where multiple locations will likely top
out in the 100-105 degree range. High temps in the 94-99 range will
be the norm outside of these regions, though widespread 65-75F dew
points will lead to most places feeling like 100+ degrees come
Monday afternoon (even if the thermometer says otherwise). Be sure to
drink plenty of fluids, wear light clothing, and take plenty of
cooling breaks if spending appreciable amounts of time outdoors on
Monday.
The other item of note in the Monday-Tuesday forecast will be chances
for isolated to widely scattered convection along and immediately
ahead of the dryline across the western CWA. As is typical with the
dryline, convective initiation will be conditional upon erosion of
the cap, which with the presence of arid southwesterly flow in the
850 to 700 millibar layer will be quite stout. Tend to think that
Monday afternoon will come and go without any storms, but have drawn
an area of 15-20% precipitation probs across the southern Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande Plains in the scenario that surface heating
and the ascending branch of the dryline circulation can erode the
convective inhibition imparted by the elevated mixed layer. Any
storm(s) would be highly dependent on afternoon heating, and would
quickly subside by dusk and the onset of nocturnal surface cooling.
Confidence in convective initiation occurring is a touch higher on
Tuesday afternoon, as a weak impulse is forecast to eject out of
Mexico and into the Edwards Plateau and Llano Estacado. The added
lift provided by the feature contributes to a more robust QPF signal
in both deterministic and ensemble mean guidance suites through this
portion of the extended forecast period. Have thus introduced an
area of 25-35% precipitation probabilities over Val Verde County and
points immediately east Tuesday afternoon, as these regions will be
in the closest proximity to both the dryline and ejecting shortwave
trough. Despite weak shear profiles and a likely poorly-organized
convective mode tied to any storms that develop, steep lapse rates
aloft could support robust updrafts capable of large hail Tuesday
afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has thus included portions of
Val Verde County in a day 4 15% probability of severe weather in
light of this potential. We will continue to monitor this portion of
the forecast period closely, particularly as CAM solutions begin to
filter in over the next 24-36 hours.
Beyond Tuesday afternoon, the forecast turns dry and a few degrees
cooler across the region. The ridge axis currently traversing the
southern CONUS will rapidly elongate poleward, extending from the
west-central Gulf of Mexico northeast into the Saint Lawrence River
Valley by early Wednesday morning. Attendant anticyclogenesis across
the Ozarks and ArkLaTex will allow slightly drier air to filter into
the region, particularly across the eastern portions of the CWA. This
should hold precipitation chances well to our west through the end of
the upcoming work week. Mid-level ridging will begin to break down by
next weekend, as a closed mid-level vorticity max spins up off the
southeast Atlantic Coast and drifts west into the Gulf of Mexico.
Depending on how far west this feature propagates, this could
reintroduce deeper moisture and precipitation chances across
portions of the CWA. Current ensemble means suggest that the low will
be absorbed into a strengthening westerly flow field over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico by Sunday, so have kept the back end of the long term
dry in this forecast package.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022
/00Z TAFs/
VFR cigs are expected across area sites through at least 05Z Sunday.
Clouds are forecast to develop overnight bringing MVFR cigs to the
I-35 sites between 06Z and 08Z Sunday and staying through at least
13Z or so. KDRT is forecast to remain VFR through the forecast
period. Southerly winds will prevail through the period with speeds
around 9 to 12 knots overnight into Sunday. Gusty winds up to 22
knots are forecast for the I-35 terminals on Sunday afternoon.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Highs for Saturday, May 7th and Sunday, May 8th
Austin Bergstrom.......102 in 1998 .........97 in 2011
Austin Camp Mabry......102 in 1998 .........99 in 1967
San Antonio Int........100 in 1998 ........102 in 1927
Del Rio................106 in 1998 ........103 in 1967
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 74 98 74 94 / 10 0 0 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 97 73 95 / 10 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 98 74 95 / 0 0 10 0
Burnet Muni Airport 73 98 72 98 / 20 0 0 10
Del Rio Intl Airport 77 102 77 104 / 0 0 10 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 73 98 73 96 / 10 0 0 10
Hondo Muni Airport 73 102 74 97 / 0 0 10 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 98 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 97 75 95 / 0 0 10 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 73 99 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 75 102 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...17
Long-Term...Morris
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022
An upper level disturbance and associated Pacific cold front
operating across UT/WY this afternoon will move into wrn Nebraska
this afternoon/evening triggering a fairly robust area of
thunderstorms. A northward surge of dry air across the Panhandle
appears to be focusing the better rain chances, generally east of
highway 61 with the best chance east of highway 83. This represents
a shift east in the best focus for rainfall from earlier forecasts.
There are two basic schools of model solns for rainfall. One,
suggesting a strong cap will remain across swrn Nebraska, perhaps
limiting rain chances to areas north of Interstate 80. The strongly
capped models are the GFS, NAM, HRRR, SREF and RAP. A second cadre
of models, such as the ECM and downscaled NAM suggest significant
rainfall will extend along and south of the Interstate. The
forecast, which uses a blended approach, carries the heavier rain
further south then the "capped models" but not as far south as the
wetter ECM and downscaled NAM model.
In typical May fashion, lapse rates will be steep ahead of the upper
level disturbance predicted to move through tonight. Winds aloft at
h500 will increase to 50-65kts producing strong shear. The NAM and
RAP models accordingly, are suggesting a low bulk Richardson number
which increases along a sfc cold front progged to move through the
region late this afternoon and tonight. The CAMs are suggesting
multicell segments which is confusing since BufKit suggests the
shear will be too strong for significant cell regeneration. The CAMs
are probably developing the segments along and just behind the cold
front and represent the predicted storm mode for this forecast.
Most or all of this storm activity should be clear of wrn and ncntl
Nebraska Sunday morning and the region to remain post frontal
throughout the day.
A second round of height falls will move through the region Sunday
night and robust moisture return will develop as 850-700mb winds
become south and strengthen to 35-50kts. This should lift a warm
front back north and the models are in very good agreement
developing thunderstorms north of Interstate 80. A check on the NAM
and RAP models shows lapse rates becoming steep with the approach of
the warm front. This would support storms capable of at least small
hail with a marginal chance for a few large-hail storms Sunday
night. Likely POPs are in place north of the Interstate with rain
chances increasing to definite near the SD border.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022
Western and north central Nebraska remain post-frontal Monday and
Tuesday. A dry forecast is in place.
Attention is drawn to the potential weather events of Wednesday and
Thursday. It is during this time an upper level low will drop
through the srn Rockies and lift north through the cntl and nrn high
Plains. Moisture return is likely across Nebraska with dew points
returning to the 50s. The GFS and ECM show a strong cap in place
with h700mb temperatures warming to 12C-14C. The strong cap
represents a significant limiter to thunderstorm chances.
Height falls occur with the approach of the upper low. Model timing
differences- the GFS is faster, lowering heights and weakening the
cap Wednesday. The slower ECM delays this process until Thursday.
Chc-slight chc POPs are in place Wednesday and Thursday- the better
focus appears to be across the Dakotas and upper Midwest but the
intense increase in 500mb winds to 50-80kts across Nebraska shown by
the ECM Thursday are a severe weather concern. The message is the
strong cap and strong shear predicted by the models suggest
thunderstorm coverage across wrn and ncntl Nebraska would likely be
isolated but potentially severe.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022
The main aviation weather concern through tonight revolves around
thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms will grow in coverage and
spread east through 08/06z or so, lingering a little longer in
north central Neb (KONL). Expect significant drops in visby and
erratic winds, along with brief bouts of hail. Preceding the
storms, south/southeast winds will continue to gust 30+ kts.
Behind the storms, winds will transition to west/northwest and
gradually wane overnight. Ceilings lift to AOA 20kft by midday,
while another wind shift to southeast occurs for southern Neb
(KLBF).
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Snively
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
751 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022
.UPDATE...
8PM Update
No changes were made with this update. The previous forecast
remains on track.
SMW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 138 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022/
DISCUSSION...
Pretty much just a temperature forecast over the next seven days.
Today will be the coolest day we see over the next week or so.
Current temperatures are in the low 60s to low 70s, coolest over
portions of west Tennessee where a low deck of stratus has limited
insolation. The warmest temperatures are in northeast Mississippi
under clear skies. Afternoon highs are expected to range from the
middle 60s to middle 70s. Clouds across much of the Midsouth will
gradually erode from the west to east for the remainder of the
day. Most of the area should see clear skies before sunset. The
exception may be near the Tennessee river and along the Alabama
state line.
A ridge over the plains will shift east becoming oriented along
the Mississippi River Valley tomorrow. A 593dm ridge will remain
in place through midweek. The upper low that brought us the rain
and clouds yesterday and today will stall off the coast of the
Carolinas, early in the week, sink a bit farther south midweek,
then retrograde back onshore over Georgia late Thursday into
Friday. This feature will help break down the ridge over the
Mississippi River Valley and allow a backdoor cold front to move
into the Midsouth Friday into Saturday. There could be a few
showers/thunderstorms along the front, but we will maintain a dry
forecast for now given the uncertainty of such a pattern. However,
but models are in fair agreement.
Morning lows should be in the mid 60s to low 70s Tuesday through
Friday. High temperatures should be mainly in the middle 80s to
low 90s Monday. Tuesday through Thursday expect high temperatures
in the low to middle 90s area wide. We should see a few afternoon
highs back below 90 by Friday or Saturday.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs
Clouds will continue to clear east of MEM into early evening,
leaving clear skies and light easterly winds. HRRR model hinting
and some fog formation near CRX and SNH - certainly not out of
the question for these typically favored areas. Will need to
watch trends around MKL.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$