Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/08/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
847 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 821 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022 Our cold front roared through a little faster than expected. The strongest winds are already moving out of our area. The weak showers over the mountains should mostly dissipate as they move eastward, though some sprinkles are possible, mainly north of Denver. There are also some sprinkles/virga near the eastern border, but the threat of thunder should be limited to Sedgwick and Phillips counties, and the severe threat shifted quickly east with the dryline. Only minor changes are needed at this time for timing. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022 Satellite shows increasing high clouds across the forecast area, while a cold front is moving east across Wyoming and northwest Colorado. This cold front will push across the plains early to mid evening, with gusty southwest winds ahead of the front shifting to northerly but still quite gusty behind it for an hour or two. Winds and critical fire weather conditions will then subside. There is still a threat of an isolated severe storm over the northeast corner of the state after 6 pm this evening as the cold front intersects with the dryline. Dewpoints in the upper 40s and lower 50s were lurking just to the east, and some convective allowing models bring this moisture and MLCAPE of 1000 J/kg back to the far northeast corner (Sedgwick and Phillips Counties). Large hail/wind would be the primary threat if a stronger storm develops, as LCLs are rather high limiting the tornado threat despite strong low level 0-1 km shear. Meanwhile, mountain showers will become more numerous mainly north of the I-70 Corridor as cold, moist advection occurs. We could see a couple inches of snow tonight in the higher elevations along/north of a Rabbit Ears Pass to RMNP line. Isolated showers and/or a high based storm will be possible elsewhere, but this would be mostly virga. On Sunday, temperatures will be cooler thanks to tonight`s cold front. It will still become windy from Park County eastward across the Palmer Divide area with gusts of 30 to 45 mph again. See Fire Weather section. Farther north (roughly from Denver to the north and east across the plains), winds should be lighter thanks to a cooler and slightly more stable airmass behind the front. A developing Denver Cyclone/shear zone could also delay mixing, and HRRR and several other models are likely overdoing the mixing and westerly wind transition at least through mid/late afternoon. A few more showers/high based storms will be possible over the northern border area in proximity to the upper level trough speed max. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022 Strong southwesterly flow aloft is expected for the CWA Sunday night into early Tuesday with upper ridging over the Mississippi Valley and upper troughing over the northwestern United States. The flow aloft will decrease and become more southerly later on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the upper trough digs into the Great Basin. There is some synoptic scale upward energy progged for the CWA Sunday night, then downward energy is expected Monday. Benign energy is progged after that well into mid week. Moisture-wise, there is some around in the lower levels of the mountains and northern border areas Sunday night. Otherwise, it looks very dry through Tuesday night. The low level winds are dominated by downsloping Monday. There may be some weak cooling and easterly low level flow on Tuesday. So the main weather issue will be elevated to critical fire weather conditions all week, especially over the southern half of the CWA where wind speeds look greatest. Temperatures look a bit cooler on Monday compared to Sunday. with slightly cooler readings again on Tuesday. For the later days, Wednesday through Saturday, there is still the south-southwesterly flow aloft for the CWA Wednesday. The upper trough weakens significantly and moves across on Thursday, then a bit better looking upper trough moves in later Friday and Saturday morning. Upper ridging is in place later Saturday. Moisture is lacking, but there is a slight increase Thursday into next weekend. Just enough to leave the "isolated" pops going. Again, Thursday and Friday look to have elevated and critical fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 821 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022 VFR through Sunday. There is a chance of ceilings around 6000 ft AGL for a few hours between 05z and 09z. Winds will decrease this evening and turn easterly, then increase from the south or southeast on Sunday with gusts up to 25 knots at KDEN/KAPA after 21z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022 Red Flag conditions will continue into mid evening from South Park and the Southern Front Range Foothills into the Palmer Divide, while at the same time a cold front will drop south across the plains with shifting and gusty winds. The Red Flag should be allowed to expire at 9 pm as winds slowly subside with increasing humidity behind the front, while also slowly subsiding over the higher elevations with the loss of daytime heating and mixing. Good humidity recovery can be expected across the plains overnight, while only moderate recovery is anticipated in the foothills and Park County. Critical Red Flag conditions are expected to develop again on Sunday, this time mainly confined to areas from South Park across the Palmer Divide and eastward through about Lincoln County. Farther to the north and east, the frontal passage and slightly cooler weather will favor less mixing and lighter winds across the rest of the plains. Denver into eastern Adams, Arapahoe, and Washington Counties could be on the edge toward late afternoon, while areas farther north will have lighter winds and sufficient humidity. A dry airmass will be in place over the forecast area most of next week. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected, especially over the south half of the forecast area through Tuesday, then over most of the forecast area Wednesday through Friday. Nuances with the wind speeds through the week will dictate where the Red Flag Watches and Warnings will be posted. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ214-216- 238>249. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ214-216- 241-246-247. && $$ UPDATE...Gimmestad SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...RJK AVIATION...Gimmestad FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch/RJK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
639 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday/ Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 ...Warmer with scattered storms Sunday ...Major warming next week with svr storm chances Monday Night ...Some cooling late in the period - but still above normal Confidence Short Term: Medium to High Very blocky pattern continues over the CONUS. Great Lakes surface ridge extends back into Iowa this morning with plenty of sun and generally pleasant conditions. Rockies low already taking shape over MT with a push of warm air advection into the Plains this morning. An elongated sfc warm front extends from the MT low to just south of Omaha at 12z. The upper level pattern still needs a detective to see all the details this morning. H850 subjective analysis continues with a blocking ridge from southern Hudson Bay southwest into the mid Mississippi River Valley. Along the east coast our old system from last week is basically stuck with a double barrel low over the mid Atlantic Coast and an old low near Newfoundland. Meanwhile, a continuous stream of energy from the Pacific is cascading into the west coast and Rockies like a multiple car pileup. Moisture is currently lacking this morning over eastern Iowa through the Ohio River Valley and north to northern WI and the remainder of the Great Lakes. A large and amplifying trough to our west is already pulling moisture north in a narrow ribbon at H850 that stretches from southern TX north to western North Dakota. The deeper plume of +10C to the Texas Panhandle at 12z. So far there are no strong waves to spark any convection immediately to our west. This morning a weak wave is passing through the flow at Omaha with a small increase in H850 dewpoints to +5C into central Iowa. The next real system is located over northern Texas and this will be the wave that helps generate storms overnight tonight; that along with typical diurnal low level jet speed oscillation peaking around 10 to 13z Sunday. Tonight will see an increase in convection to our west with storms firing in the amplifying H850 flow. The Texas wave will begin to lift northeast with an H850 speed max arriving into western Iowa by 12z. Though instability will remain limited yet overnight, some scattered thunderstorms will likely occur in the southwest/west by morning. The region should remain dry overnight along and east of I35. Sunday will see the convection trying to edge east during the day as the entire trough begins a slow east shift into the afternoon hours. The upper level ridge over Canada is not expected to move much and might even retrograde a bit. This will support scattered convection at least through the day tomorrow as the H850 gradient increases for a time. GFS PWATs will increase to 1 to 1.25 inches by 12z over the west half of the area with warm cloud processes beginning to increase as well. Modest 0-3km CAPE along with warm cloud depths of 12000+ feet may briefly support higher efficiency rainfall tomorrow. The real question is the extent of the convection into central and eastern Iowa by afternoon and how much, if any the convection can build east prior to decaying in the morning hours. Based on the GEFs and the blocking ridge, it appears that the HRRR and GFS are more correct in keeping the heavier showers/storms more confined to the northwest/west of I35 corridors; with perhaps some decaying showers drifting east during the day. Tonight with increasing winds and some clouds returning with showers west, lows will remain in the lower to mid 50s over the area. Sunday will see temperatures tempered by clouds and scattered showers/few storms and mainly in the 60s to around 70 in the south. Sunday night will see the first surface low and accompanying upper level warm air advection shoot north into MN with overnight mins not dropping too far with increasingly warmer air overnight. && .LONG TERM.../Sunday night through Saturday/ Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 Confidence: Medium Sunday nights increasing southerly flow will set the stage for a stronger surge of warm air through the column. H850 temperatures are expected to reach 18 to 22C by 00z Tuesday with strong mixing ahead of an incoming trough. Dewpoints are expected to reach the upper 60s to around 70 by afternoon over the eastern half of our area along with highs in the mid to upper 80s. MUCAPE is forecast to rise to 3000 to +3500 j/kg by late day. However, we remain capped at H700 through at least 20 to 23z with temperatures of 11 to 14C from I35 east to the IA IL border. By 00z and into the evening hours, cooling aloft will erode the cap and both deterministic GFS/Euro models are hinting at a back-building MCS along the trough into southern Iowa overnight into early Tuesday morning. The current GFS sounding forecast MBE is only 10kts later in the evening at ALO. Right now PWATs are forecast to increase Monday evening/night to around 1.75 in a narrow ribbon along the stalled front and warm cloud depths expected to reach +13 kft. Any convection that takes hold along that boundary may be able to be very efficient rainfall producers for the eastern and northeast third of the forecast area and possibly farther northeast into southeast MN and southwest WI/northwest IL. Though the deterministic Euro is lagging both the NAM/GFS, there is a forecast of strong warm air advection from Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Wherever the nose of this sets up, there will be an increasing risk of training storms as well as a few severe storms with wind/hail the main threats. This will obviously depend on a number of mesoscale/synoptic elements coming together at the right time. Though we are still 2 days out, it is worth noting the possibility but for now not get overly excited. Prior to this, Monday itself will be the hottest day of the year so far in terms of heat and humidity with heat indices in the upper 80s to around 90 as well. As we move into Tuesday and Wednesday, the boundary will lift back north resulting in another round of storms prior the the boundary lifting far enough into MN that the area is left mainly very warm and humid. With the area being influenced by a diurnally driven rise and fall of an H700 cap around +10C plus sufficient moisture and weak impulses of warm air advection through the region, there will remain a low risk of late afternoon or evening thunder. Much of the week into the weekend the area will remain in a moderately high PWAT regime. This will tend to bring more efficient downpours in any airmass storms that can fire. Though the north would be more favored to experience scattered convection from time to time, some lingering outflow boundaries may also aid in storm development resulting in lower PoP confidence day to day this upcoming week. Toward the end of the week into Saturday, vast differences are showing up in the forecast. The Euro is forecasting a stronger wave is forecast to drive north from the western Plains into southern Canada with pulls a front east of the area on Friday while the GFS show the front stalling out again near Iowa. At this point, a less progressive movement in pattern is still preferred. Plenty of time to address the details over the next week. Warm weather will continue and even if the front edges east, highs will remain well above normal with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening/ Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 Conditions will be clear and breezy tonight before clouds and showers begin to make their way in towards the early morning hours. The low level jet will also kick in overnight, bringing some low level wind shear to a few of the TAF sites. Showers and vicinity thunderstorms are expected to start around 12z to 13z, followed by some MVFR ceilings at the end of the TAF period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...REV AVIATION...Krull/Dodson
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
716 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 710 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 Heat indices are below the 100 degree mark for the most parts with values ranging from 102 to 106 degrees to the south and southwest of San Antonio. These values are below Heat Advisory criteria and therefore the Heat Advisory earlier issued for parts of south central Texas has been allowed to expire at 7 PM CDT. The heat wave continues on Sunday and Monday with additional Heat Advisories possible next few days as temperatures range from the upper 90s and up to 105 degrees with heat indices ranging from 103 to 109 along and east of Intestate 35 and the Winter Garden region. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 Mostly clear skies are currently prevailing across South-Central Texas at this time. Southwest winds continue in the Hill Country and temperatures there have warmed into the middle 90s with 102 being reported at Llano as of 1 PM. Elsewhere around the region temperatures are in the lower 90s. Still expecting high temperatures today will reach into the upper 90s to 105 degrees with max heat index values in the 99-107 degree range for most locations. Due to the abnormally high temperatures this early, a Heat Advisory continues for the entire area. Only a couple of the high-res models continue to show isolated convection near Llano, Burnet, Gillespie, and Blanco Counties later this afternoon near the dryline position. This remains a very low probability solution as the HRRR and TTU-WRF continue to show a dry solution. However, if a storm is able to develop, the high temperatures and larger dewpoint depressions will lead to high instability for the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Will continue to show a 20 PoP through from 4-9 pm to account for this threat. SPC also keeps this area in a marginal risk for severe storms in this area, but again this is more of a conditional threat for the small likelihood that something is able to develop. Nocturnal low-clouds are expected for much of the area once again tonight with lows in the lower to middle 70s. Another abnormally hot day is expected tomorrow with highs in the upper 90s to near 105 with afternoon heat indices in the 99-109 degree range. Will let the overnight shift decide on a new Heat Advisory for tomorrow. While convection chances over the Hill Country near the dryline tomorrow remain low, there is again a very small chance for a storm, but the best probabilities are north of the area. Will leave the forecast dry for late tomorrow afternoon. More nocturnal stratus is expected tomorrow night with lows a bit warmer, in the middle to upper 70s for much of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 Though the ridge axis and attendant compressional warming responsible for this weekend`s summer-like heat will be sliding to our east, one more day of widespread high temperatures in the mid-upper 90s is expected Monday. The warmest highs will be found over the Rio Grande Plains and Winter Garden, where multiple locations will likely top out in the 100-105 degree range. High temps in the 94-99 range will be the norm outside of these regions, though widespread 65-75F dew points will lead to most places feeling like 100+ degrees come Monday afternoon (even if the thermometer says otherwise). Be sure to drink plenty of fluids, wear light clothing, and take plenty of cooling breaks if spending appreciable amounts of time outdoors on Monday. The other item of note in the Monday-Tuesday forecast will be chances for isolated to widely scattered convection along and immediately ahead of the dryline across the western CWA. As is typical with the dryline, convective initiation will be conditional upon erosion of the cap, which with the presence of arid southwesterly flow in the 850 to 700 millibar layer will be quite stout. Tend to think that Monday afternoon will come and go without any storms, but have drawn an area of 15-20% precipitation probs across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains in the scenario that surface heating and the ascending branch of the dryline circulation can erode the convective inhibition imparted by the elevated mixed layer. Any storm(s) would be highly dependent on afternoon heating, and would quickly subside by dusk and the onset of nocturnal surface cooling. Confidence in convective initiation occurring is a touch higher on Tuesday afternoon, as a weak impulse is forecast to eject out of Mexico and into the Edwards Plateau and Llano Estacado. The added lift provided by the feature contributes to a more robust QPF signal in both deterministic and ensemble mean guidance suites through this portion of the extended forecast period. Have thus introduced an area of 25-35% precipitation probabilities over Val Verde County and points immediately east Tuesday afternoon, as these regions will be in the closest proximity to both the dryline and ejecting shortwave trough. Despite weak shear profiles and a likely poorly-organized convective mode tied to any storms that develop, steep lapse rates aloft could support robust updrafts capable of large hail Tuesday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has thus included portions of Val Verde County in a day 4 15% probability of severe weather in light of this potential. We will continue to monitor this portion of the forecast period closely, particularly as CAM solutions begin to filter in over the next 24-36 hours. Beyond Tuesday afternoon, the forecast turns dry and a few degrees cooler across the region. The ridge axis currently traversing the southern CONUS will rapidly elongate poleward, extending from the west-central Gulf of Mexico northeast into the Saint Lawrence River Valley by early Wednesday morning. Attendant anticyclogenesis across the Ozarks and ArkLaTex will allow slightly drier air to filter into the region, particularly across the eastern portions of the CWA. This should hold precipitation chances well to our west through the end of the upcoming work week. Mid-level ridging will begin to break down by next weekend, as a closed mid-level vorticity max spins up off the southeast Atlantic Coast and drifts west into the Gulf of Mexico. Depending on how far west this feature propagates, this could reintroduce deeper moisture and precipitation chances across portions of the CWA. Current ensemble means suggest that the low will be absorbed into a strengthening westerly flow field over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday, so have kept the back end of the long term dry in this forecast package. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 /00Z TAFs/ VFR cigs are expected across area sites through at least 05Z Sunday. Clouds are forecast to develop overnight bringing MVFR cigs to the I-35 sites between 06Z and 08Z Sunday and staying through at least 13Z or so. KDRT is forecast to remain VFR through the forecast period. Southerly winds will prevail through the period with speeds around 9 to 12 knots overnight into Sunday. Gusty winds up to 22 knots are forecast for the I-35 terminals on Sunday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Saturday, May 7th and Sunday, May 8th Austin Bergstrom.......102 in 1998 .........97 in 2011 Austin Camp Mabry......102 in 1998 .........99 in 1967 San Antonio Int........100 in 1998 ........102 in 1927 Del Rio................106 in 1998 ........103 in 1967 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 98 74 94 / 10 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 97 73 95 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 98 74 95 / 0 0 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 98 72 98 / 20 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 102 77 104 / 0 0 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 98 73 96 / 10 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 73 102 74 97 / 0 0 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 98 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 97 75 95 / 0 0 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 99 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 102 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...Morris Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 An upper level disturbance and associated Pacific cold front operating across UT/WY this afternoon will move into wrn Nebraska this afternoon/evening triggering a fairly robust area of thunderstorms. A northward surge of dry air across the Panhandle appears to be focusing the better rain chances, generally east of highway 61 with the best chance east of highway 83. This represents a shift east in the best focus for rainfall from earlier forecasts. There are two basic schools of model solns for rainfall. One, suggesting a strong cap will remain across swrn Nebraska, perhaps limiting rain chances to areas north of Interstate 80. The strongly capped models are the GFS, NAM, HRRR, SREF and RAP. A second cadre of models, such as the ECM and downscaled NAM suggest significant rainfall will extend along and south of the Interstate. The forecast, which uses a blended approach, carries the heavier rain further south then the "capped models" but not as far south as the wetter ECM and downscaled NAM model. In typical May fashion, lapse rates will be steep ahead of the upper level disturbance predicted to move through tonight. Winds aloft at h500 will increase to 50-65kts producing strong shear. The NAM and RAP models accordingly, are suggesting a low bulk Richardson number which increases along a sfc cold front progged to move through the region late this afternoon and tonight. The CAMs are suggesting multicell segments which is confusing since BufKit suggests the shear will be too strong for significant cell regeneration. The CAMs are probably developing the segments along and just behind the cold front and represent the predicted storm mode for this forecast. Most or all of this storm activity should be clear of wrn and ncntl Nebraska Sunday morning and the region to remain post frontal throughout the day. A second round of height falls will move through the region Sunday night and robust moisture return will develop as 850-700mb winds become south and strengthen to 35-50kts. This should lift a warm front back north and the models are in very good agreement developing thunderstorms north of Interstate 80. A check on the NAM and RAP models shows lapse rates becoming steep with the approach of the warm front. This would support storms capable of at least small hail with a marginal chance for a few large-hail storms Sunday night. Likely POPs are in place north of the Interstate with rain chances increasing to definite near the SD border. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 Western and north central Nebraska remain post-frontal Monday and Tuesday. A dry forecast is in place. Attention is drawn to the potential weather events of Wednesday and Thursday. It is during this time an upper level low will drop through the srn Rockies and lift north through the cntl and nrn high Plains. Moisture return is likely across Nebraska with dew points returning to the 50s. The GFS and ECM show a strong cap in place with h700mb temperatures warming to 12C-14C. The strong cap represents a significant limiter to thunderstorm chances. Height falls occur with the approach of the upper low. Model timing differences- the GFS is faster, lowering heights and weakening the cap Wednesday. The slower ECM delays this process until Thursday. Chc-slight chc POPs are in place Wednesday and Thursday- the better focus appears to be across the Dakotas and upper Midwest but the intense increase in 500mb winds to 50-80kts across Nebraska shown by the ECM Thursday are a severe weather concern. The message is the strong cap and strong shear predicted by the models suggest thunderstorm coverage across wrn and ncntl Nebraska would likely be isolated but potentially severe. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 The main aviation weather concern through tonight revolves around thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms will grow in coverage and spread east through 08/06z or so, lingering a little longer in north central Neb (KONL). Expect significant drops in visby and erratic winds, along with brief bouts of hail. Preceding the storms, south/southeast winds will continue to gust 30+ kts. Behind the storms, winds will transition to west/northwest and gradually wane overnight. Ceilings lift to AOA 20kft by midday, while another wind shift to southeast occurs for southern Neb (KLBF). && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Snively
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
751 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 .UPDATE... 8PM Update No changes were made with this update. The previous forecast remains on track. SMW && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 138 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022/ DISCUSSION... Pretty much just a temperature forecast over the next seven days. Today will be the coolest day we see over the next week or so. Current temperatures are in the low 60s to low 70s, coolest over portions of west Tennessee where a low deck of stratus has limited insolation. The warmest temperatures are in northeast Mississippi under clear skies. Afternoon highs are expected to range from the middle 60s to middle 70s. Clouds across much of the Midsouth will gradually erode from the west to east for the remainder of the day. Most of the area should see clear skies before sunset. The exception may be near the Tennessee river and along the Alabama state line. A ridge over the plains will shift east becoming oriented along the Mississippi River Valley tomorrow. A 593dm ridge will remain in place through midweek. The upper low that brought us the rain and clouds yesterday and today will stall off the coast of the Carolinas, early in the week, sink a bit farther south midweek, then retrograde back onshore over Georgia late Thursday into Friday. This feature will help break down the ridge over the Mississippi River Valley and allow a backdoor cold front to move into the Midsouth Friday into Saturday. There could be a few showers/thunderstorms along the front, but we will maintain a dry forecast for now given the uncertainty of such a pattern. However, but models are in fair agreement. Morning lows should be in the mid 60s to low 70s Tuesday through Friday. High temperatures should be mainly in the middle 80s to low 90s Monday. Tuesday through Thursday expect high temperatures in the low to middle 90s area wide. We should see a few afternoon highs back below 90 by Friday or Saturday. 30 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs Clouds will continue to clear east of MEM into early evening, leaving clear skies and light easterly winds. HRRR model hinting and some fog formation near CRX and SNH - certainly not out of the question for these typically favored areas. Will need to watch trends around MKL. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$