Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/07/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
640 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Visible satellite shows some high clouds moving across all three Rio Grande Valley TAF sites this evening due to the thunderstorm development over the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico. Those storms are supposed to stay south of the Rio Grande tonight, so VFR conditions with moderate southeasterly winds will prevail for the next couple hours before an MVFR cloud deck builds across the region and winds drop a bit. IFR conditions will be possible early Saturday morning, especially at BRO. Some patchy fog will also be possible across all of Deep South Texas Saturday morning. Then ceilings will gradually lift by mid day Saturday and southeast winds will become breezy. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): A few high value heat index readings are coming in from the Davis instrument at Falcon Lake, but not widespread enough to consider a heat advisory for portions of Starr County. The HRRR is signaling a few convective cells, already seen on radar over Nuevo Leon, continuing into this evening, but not quite making it across into deep South Texas. Low clouds will move in over eastern sections of the CWA tonight, and with lighter winds, patchy light fog may occur late tonight. Low temps will be in the mid 70s. In the meantime, the heat will ramp up on Saturday as an H5 ridge continues to build overhead. The ridge will bring a swath of 850mb temperatures between 25 to 27 degrees, especially in the Rio Grande Plains, western Brush Country, and western Upper Rio Grande Valley, Saturday afternoon. Taking those temps down a dry adiabat would put surface temperatures near 40 to 42 C, or 104 to 108 for extreme western sections, so maintained the current forecast for those locations. Drier air with sub 70 deg F dewpoints will influence the western sections, limiting heat index values somewhat, but Zapata, and Starr Counties will flirt with heat advisory criteria (>= than 111 deg F) Saturday afternoon. No rain or storms are expected on Saturday, but pressure falls over the High Plains as the next storm system develops will help tighten the local pressure gradient and bring breezy southeast winds to coastal sections on Saturday. Saturday night low temps will again be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, in the mid to upper 70s, with moderate southeast breezes and partly to mostly cloudy skies from west to east. LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): A fairly persistent summer- like weather pattern will continue for Deep South Texas through the majority of the long-term period, maintaining abnormally warm temperatures and near zero percent rain chances. Potent mid-level ridging will be centered over central Mexico on Sunday, but will gradually build northward across much of the central CONUS through the upcoming workweek. As a result of this strong mid-level ridging aloft, hot daytime and very warm and muggy evening temperatures are expected to continue. Additionally, a plethora of Gulf moisture in the lower atmospheric levels will allow heat index values to climb above 105 degrees across all inland locations each afternoon through Tuesday. The most extreme heat indices are expected to occur across Zapata, Starr, Jim Hogg, and perhaps western Brooks and Hidalgo Counties, especially Sunday and Monday afternoons, where values up to 115 degrees will be possible. If model trends continue, a Heat Advisory will be needed on both Sunday and Monday for these counties. A Heat Advisory may still be possible for Zapata and Starr Counties on Tuesday, though dewpoint temperatures won`t be nearly as high as on Sunday and Monday and will be trending cooler each afternoon through Friday. Finally, breezy to windy southeast winds will also continue through much of the long-term as a series of surface lows develop and march across the Plains and Midwest through the week. MARINE (Now through Saturday Night): Moderate to fresh southeast breezes and moderate to slightly elevated wave heights will be possible in the short term. Pressure falls in the High Plains will tighten the pressure gradient Saturday afternoon, increasing winds and seas. Small craft should exercise caution conditions will be possible much of the short term. Sunday through Thursday: A persistent moderate to strong pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast will maintain moderate and gusty southeasterly winds each afternoon, keeping seas generally between 4 to 6 feet through the long term. SCEC to borderline SCA conditions are likely each afternoon main due to winds, especially Monday and Tuesday. Slightly more favorable marine conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 92 75 90 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 77 94 78 94 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 75 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 75 100 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 103 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 83 77 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: Aviation Update...69-Farris
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1005 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Occluded low pressure over the Ohio Valley will move east towards the mid-Atlantic coast this evening through Saturday. High pressure ridging will build into the Great Lakes region on Sunday and into the eastern United States on Monday, remaining there through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Update: Again freshened the near term POPs, QPF, and temps based on current conditions and by blending in the best- performing short-range models with the forecast through the rest of tonight. This again resulted in no wholesale changes to the forecast. Steadiest rain this evening has been with a nearly stationary area of lower-level convergence extending from Richland/Ashland Counties towards Sandusky and Toledo...this appears to be gradually becoming less organized, with rain filling in farther east now. Still watching a few river points for potential to touch minor flooding later tonight into Saturday. Warning has been issued for the Portage River at Waterville. Otherwise, the Killbuck Creek at Killbuck is forecast to eek into minor flood stage Saturday morning. We will continue to watch that rise through the night and issue a warning if confidence in reaching flood stage becomes sufficient. We continue to watch several other river points...the Huron River at Milan, Black River at Elyria, Eagle Creek at Phalanx Station and Black Fork Mohican at Loudonville are all in/forecast to get into Action Stage, and one or two of these may also try getting into Minor Flood Stage later tonight into Saturday. Otherwise, probably a fair amount of nuisance standing water/ponding from the Sandusky area down towards Mansfield and Ashland where the steadiest rain has been this evening...if rain ramps back up enough in the Akron, Canton, Ravenna and Warren/Youngstown area later tonight into early Saturday some nuisance ponding may occur there as well. We continue to watch winds along the western lakeshore and in the islands, but currently they`re behaving quite well and no changes were made to the going wind forecast. Still, a few gusts to near 45 MPH may occur on the islands and right along the lakeshore in parts of Ottawa, Erie, and perhaps Lorain Counties overnight tonight. Other item of interest, mainly in Ottawa, Sandusky, and Erie Counties, will be water levels on the lake tonight. After peaking earlier today water levels have dropped half a foot or so through the afternoon evening. Likely will be another slosh back west late this evening into the overnight with near-gales out of the northeast on the lake. Will be close to causing at least some minor issues in typical spots for a time overnight. Will monitor trends and may need to issue an SPS for that. Previous Discussion: Radar and gauge QPE show widespread accumulation of 0.5-1"+ with the greatest accumulation of 1-1.25" from Marion to Canton and points south, with isolated higher amounts across parts of central Ohio (through 19Z). The vertically stacked low pressure system located over southern Indiana will continue to moved eastward across the Ohio Valley this evening and to the mid-Atlantic region tonight. The TROWAL associated with this system will continue to fuel moisture into an area of significant lift produced by the deformation zone. While radar shows a lull in rain showers right now, redevelopment of widespread rain is expected after 00Z across the area in response to these synoptic features and lasting through about 12Z before diminishing from west to east through the day Saturday. Additional QPF of 0.3-0.8" is expected across the area though lower amounts likely for northwest Ohio and higher amounts of 1"+ may be possible for parts of central to east-central Ohio. Localized areal and river flooding may be possible for areas that receive the 1"+ of additional rain. River ensemble forecasts via the GEFS and NAEFS suggest KILO1 is likely to reach minor flooding but will wait for more QPE and see how the river responds before issuing a river flood warning. PHAO1 will also be a site to watch for river flooding. By Saturday afternoon, much of the area will be left with light rain showers, or even sprinkles/drizzle as the moisture depth becomes increasingly shallow. Dry air sharply intrudes from the northwest, eroding away at remaining showers and cloud cover Saturday evening through Saturday night, with mostly clear skies actually expected by late Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday will be the start of the long advertised pattern change. The mid/upper closed low will stall offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast through the day while mid/upper longwave troughing remains from the eastern Great Lakes down the east coast. As this occurs, upstream mid/upper ridging will build across the Midwest and western Great Lakes in response to a deepening longwave trough over the western CONUS. The axis of the upper ridge will remain just to our west on Sunday, with strong 1028 mb surface high pressure over Quebec keeping light E to NE low-level flow across the area. This will lead to mostly sunny and dry conditions, but continued below normal high temps in the low/mid 60s. Sunday night through Monday night, the big western CONUS mid/upper longwave trough will further deepen allowing the mid/upper ridge axis to sharpen and strengthen across the Plains and Midwest, folding over into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the same time, the old upper low remains cut off and quasi-stationary offshore of the Mid Atlantic. This will be a classic, highly amplified Omega Block pattern which will be very slow to move through next week and beyond. Our region will be on the eastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge with surface high pressure over far eastern Canada providing dry and mostly sunny conditions. The warmest 850 mb temps will surge into the middle and upper Mississippi Valley, but even northern Ohio reaches 12-14 C 850 mb temps by Monday night. This will lead to highs Monday warming into the low/mid 70s, and continued to go a couple degrees above blended guidance. Lows in the low/upper 40s Sunday night will modify into the mid 40s/low 50s Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The large mid/upper ridge will remain strong and centered over the Plains and Midwest Tuesday through Thursday as strong troughing remains entrenched over the West, reinforced by several shortwaves. Guidance is coming into better agreement that the closed mid/upper low offshore of the Mid Atlantic early in the week will sink toward Florida and the SE CONUS during the second half of the week before starting to retrograde toward the southern Appalachians by Friday. The end result is warm and dry weather for our region nearly all week, with temps gradually warming each day. Temps averaging about 10 degrees above normal Tuesday will be closer to 15 degrees above normal by Thursday and Friday with lots of sunshine continuing. The weak pressure gradient will allow for the development of afternoon lake breezes each day, so kept slightly cooler conditions along the lakeshore, but overall went a few degrees above blended guidance for highs each day. Did introduce slight chance PoPs for isolated showers/storms from about Mt. Vernon and points SE by Friday afternoon as moisture advection tied to the retrograding cut off low begin to increase, but nothing widespread or long-lived is expected. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Persistent IFR continues for FDY, MFD, and CAK. CLE and YNG have been bouncing between IFR and MVFR, with lower ceilings and visibilities under rain occasionally touching IFR...otherwise, MVFR has been the rule at those two so far this evening. TOL and ERI have been VFR for much of the late afternoon and early evening. Generally will be little change tonight with drier air advecting in from the northeast trying to keep TOL and ERI VFR...TOL has the best chance to slip to MVFR for a time this evening if steadier rain spreads in. FDY, MFD and CAK will likely stay IFR through the evening and in some cases through the whole night...FDY should improve later tonight into Saturday as drier air works in, though MFD and CAK will likely stay IFR into early Saturday and then gradually improve later in the morning and through the afternoon, eventually getting to VFR by later afternoon or early evening. Either could touch LIFR ceilings in steadier rain tonight, but not enough confidence to give prevailing ceilings that low at either. With areas of rain continuing, expect the ceilings to only climb gradually on Saturday, especially at CAK. Kept YNG MVFR through the night, but potential does exist for a period of IFR ceilings if steadier rain can develop for a time later this evening into the overnight. Gradual improvement through the day Saturday, likely going VFR by late afternoon or early evening. CLE in a similar boat as YNG...likely MVFR most of tonight, but with a period of IFR not ruled out under steadier rain if it develops over the terminal at some point over the next several hours. Drier air working in from north to south should cause gradual improvement later tonight into Saturday morning, back to VFR at some point Saturday morning. Generally went with a mix of HRRR forecast soundings and GLAMP guidance for specifics at each TAF site...both initializing fairly well, though the HRRR may be a bit too optimistic with ceilings while LAMP may be a bit pessimistic with ceilings and visibility at times. Either way, a blend of the two seemed reasonable. Northeast flow continues through the TAF period at 10-20 knots, strongest at TOL, FDY, CLE and ERI. Winds gradually subside Saturday afternoon and evening. Gusts to 25-30 knots possible at times tonight into Saturday morning at TOL, FDY, CLE, and ERI...otherwise, gusts generally 20 to perhaps 25 knots at times. Gusts gradually come down Saturday afternoon as well. GLAMP wind gusts appear a bit too strong tonight into Saturday outside of perhaps TOL, CLE and ERI. Outlook...VFR is expected through Wednesday. && .MARINE... NE winds of 20-30 knots occasionally gusting to 35 knots will continue on the lake through Saturday morning. This will generate 8- 9 foot waves across the entire lake with 9-10 foot waves possible in the western basin. Water levels reached 65 inches at Toledo early this afternoon, but these levels have since fallen to just below 59 inches above low water datum. Another rise in levels is expected tonight into Saturday morning, and levels of 67-70 inches are possible at times. Held off on a lakeshore flood warning since we remain below the 72 inch criteria, and lake levels are lower than the past few years, but localized areas between Toledo and Port Clinton could see some nearshore impacts by tonight given the long duration of these NE winds down the long fetch of the lake. NE winds will decrease to 15-25 knots Saturday afternoon with waves falling to 4 to 6 feet (highest in the western and central basins), then winds and waves will finally diminish to 10-15 knots and 2-3 feet respectively by late Saturday night. The Small Craft Advisories still look good to expire at 03Z Sunday for Conneaut to Ripley and at 06Z Sunday farther west across the rest of the nearshore waters. NE winds increase a bit again to 15-20 knots Sunday with 2-4 foot waves, but quiet conditions are otherwise expected Sunday night through Wednesday as a large ridge of high pressure builds across the lake with generally ENE winds of 10-15 knots during the day and ESE winds of 5-10 knots at night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ142>148. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Saunders/Sullivan SHORT TERM...Garuckas LONG TERM...Garuckas AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Garuckas
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
931 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 927 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Went ahead and expanded the chance/slight chance pops across the Devils Lake basin over the next few hours as echos upstream in southern Pierce continue to the east. RAP model does indicate some elevated CAPE which may fuel showers and thunderstorms into early Saturday morning into the northern valley. UPDATE Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Mid level moisture axis pushing into eastern ND with radar returns generally very light with most activity likely virga as actual sfc reports remain dry with NDAWN sensors in this FA showing no accumulation. Some isolated pockets may see a shower or sprinkle reach the ground with little to no impact expected. Another small area of showers and thunder near Minot will be monitored to see if activity makes it east into the FA after sundown. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Precip chances tonight, then stronger thunderstorms and fire weather concerns for tomorrow. Southwesterly flow aloft sets up tonight, with a weak shortwave trough lifting into southern Canada and some upper level divergence over the Northern Plains. South to southeasterly winds will increase, and there is some dew points around 50 in our far western counties. Some cumulus trying to get going in central ND, although MU CAPE values are around 100 J/kg. With weak instability and the main upper support moving into Canada, not too excited about shower or thunderstorm chances this evening, although with warm air advection it isn`t totally out of the question. Will continue to keep some low POPs going across our north. Otherwise it should be breezy to windy tonight and into Saturday as southerly flow continues to ramp up. A fairly vigorous shortwave will move into the Dakotas on Saturday, with the surface trough axis just to the west of our counties. Winds will continue to transport moisture into portions of eastern ND, but there is some question of how far east the higher dewpoints will go. With a southeasterly direction still tapping into dry air over Ontario and eastern MN, our far eastern counties could see RH values similar today, which has dropped into the 20s and even upper teens. The fly in the ointment will be increasing cloud cover and the possibility moisture gets further east than expected. Winds will be strong, with 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 40 mph possible. Have elected to go with an SPS highlighting fire weather concerns for Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, Clearwater, Hubbard, Wadena, and eastern portions of Becker and Ottertail counties. Further west, moisture is more certain, and some of the models bring 500-1000 J/kg of surface based CAPE into portions of the Devils Lake and Sheyenne basins. Much will depend on how much afternoon sun we actually get, but with 45 to 50 kts deep layer bulk shear, cannot rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Heavy rain could also be an issue in portions of eastern ND, as PWat values increase to 150-175 percent of normal. With convection it will be impossible to tell exactly where the heaviest rain falls, but there are at least some low probabilities of an inch or more of QPF across southeastern ND. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Pcpn should be ongoing Sun morning, although possibly not over the entire region at that time. There will be several upper waves and a couple of sfc frontal passages between this time and Mon night. Exact placement of the baroclinic zone, and whether stationary boundary is present, will determine the location and duration of rainfall during Sun. Although instability may be more focused south and east on Mon, there may be enough, in conjunction with an upper wave and deformational forcing to produce locally heavy rainfall. This brings widespread 1 to 2 inch totals into the picture, with a high end shot of 3 inches for a few spots. Area-wide totals of at least an inch are about 80 percent certain, as indicated by the ECMWF/GEFS ensembles. REX blocking, as previously mentioned, will only serve to strengthen the southwest flow mid to late next week, introducing even more moisture and convective potential. The magnitude of the block will ultimately determine the potential for more heavy rainfall, which would exacerbate existing flooding while creating new areas of concern. Temps will remain close to seasonal normals through the end of next week, with daytime highs mostly in the 60s, and overnight lows staying above 40. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 VFR with south winds persisting overnight and gusting again tomorrow afternoon up around 30kts. Showers and thunderstorms expected to hold off until after 18Z. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Ongoing significant flooding will continue through the remainder of the week and the weekend for many locations. Overland flooding continues in parts of the northern Red River valley with backwater issues from the mainstem Red and tributaries. Otherwise, three areal flood warnings were dropped after reports from local emergency managers indicated flood waters had receded. The remaining four were trimmed and extended 48 hours based on reports from those areas. However, several roads in those areas remain closed due to being washed out from the flood waters. Temperatures will continue their warming trend into the weekend. The overall weather pattern will become more active late this weekend and again late next week. Red River mainstem... All points on the central and southern Red have crested. The greatest high impact flooding along the mainstem Red continues to be near Grand Forks (moderate flooding) with major flooding ongoing downstream to the Canadian border. Oslo and Drayton have crested but remain at major flood stage while Pembina is approaching crest and should remain near crest for the next several days after that. Minnesota tributaries... All points along the Minnesota tributaries have crested and river levels continue to recede, with levels continuing to lower over the next several days. However, uncertainty remains with how future precipitation over the weekend may impact the rivers at this time. North Dakota tributaries... The main action along the North Dakota tributaries continues to be along the Sheyenne and Pembina Rivers. USACE plans openings at Baldhill today and tomorrow to ensure some flood pool capacity is still available for likely rains this weekend. A re-rise to flood stage at several locations is likely with the adjusted releases from Baldhill Dam. Downstream, Lisbon is forecast to dip slightly below flood stage before rising again to minor flood stage. Kindred is forecast to remain in major flood stage for the next several days before receding. West Fargo has dipped to moderate flood stage but another crest above major flood stage is anticipated as upstream flows reach this forecast point. Harwood remains at moderate flood stage and will see a second crest at moderate as the wave crest works its way downstream toward the mainstem Red. The Maple River Dam spillway is flowing as designed, and nearing its crest. The re-rise in the Mapleton forecast puts the crest at minor flood stage as a result of the added flow making it to that point. Major flooding continues on the Pembina River at Neche, along with plenty of overland flooding and high river levels on smaller rivers and streams across far northeastern North Dakota. Neche has appeared to crest and is forecast to slowly fall over the next several days. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...JK SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...WJB AVIATION...JK HYDROLOGY...Hopkins
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 ...Aviation Update... .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Primary forecast challenges are low clouds/fog and effects on temperatures on Saturday, thunderstorm chances Saturday night, then potentially hot temperatures and occasional thunderstorm chances next week. Not surprisingly, clouds have been stubborn to lift/erode today, owing to weak mixing and fact that low level trajectories suggest we`re basically recycling cool/moist air from behind last system back into the area. This has kept temps on the cool side and don`t see much of an opportunity for quick rises this aftn E of Hwy 281 where clds will be most stubborn. W/SW zones have seen more sunshine and may still top out in the lower 80s. For tonight, it`s pretty likely that we`ll see a repeat performance of low stratus and fog, esp. after midnight. The HRRR has done a pretty good job over the past 12-18 hrs, and see no reason to deviate from it`s trends over the next 12-18 hrs. It`ll be a little different situation tonight in that we`ll have a higher/more steady SE wind, which could argue against DENSE fog development. However, don`t want to completely write it off given upslope component and at least modest moisture advection. Have included "Patchy" to "Areas" of fog for most of south central NE, and portions of our KS zones, but kept any dense wording NW of the Tri-Cities where HRRR has been most persistent in coverage/placement of lower vsbys. Much like today, think the HRRR and RAP runs are probably onto the idea of temps once again being hampered by lingering stratus. Have gone near or below NBM 25th percentile, which gives upper 60s far E/NE to low 80s far SW. 15Z RAP and 18Z HRRR are colder yet, and suggest most of south central Neb. E of Hwy 183 won`t get out of the 60s. For collaboration purposes, won`t go quite that cold yet, but SErly component to sfc wind and continued trajectories from modified cool/damp airmass argue for colder than model consensus. Attention then turns to developing convection over the High Plains along an advancing cold front during the late aftn and eve hrs Sat, that is then forecast to move E/SE Sat night. Don`t see much reason to deviate from previous thinking and SPC Day 3 outlook too much. Convection may struggle to develop, initially, due to narrow/weak instability axis and poor convergence...but with time, incr LLJ in tandem with arrival of weak disturbance in SWrly upper flow should result in development around or just after sunset over the Neb. Sandhills. Deep layer shear vectors largely parallel to the initiating boundary and convergence from LLJ argues for fairly quick upscale growth to a linear mode. The parallel orientation will also lead to slow SEward shift, as it will take some organization and/or cold pool development to get it moving. All of this argues for a late show, probably after midnight. Exactly how long this activity persists past midnight and the southward extent remains the greatest uncertainty. H7 temps will be quite warm...13-15C(!)...and the best convergence from the LLJ will gradually veer/shift N/NE with time towards the I-29 and I-90 corridors. IF (and that`s a big IF) the convection makes it into our area, the main threat would probably be gusty winds of 40-60 MPH. Can`t rule out some marginally severe hail in strongest cores given magnitude of MUCAPE, deep layer shear, and mid level lapse rates, but think the better chances for both will probably remain closer to the initial development to our NW. Some hi-res guidance, including 18Z HRRR, shows a weakening outflow bndry with little to no QPF (likely due to aforementioned hostile mid level temps), esp. w/ southward extent. On the other hand, NAMnest and EC runs have been more bullish with coverage/intensity of QPF, at least over our Neb. zones. As such, didn`t make too many changes to going PoP forecast. This front/outflow could finally be the nudge we need to get the better mixing and warmer temps into the area for Sun and next week. Large scale subsidence and limited moisture should lead to a very nice Mother`s Day with highs in the 70s and 80s under incr sunshine. A weak front may approach, and ultimately stall out, the area on Mon. The primary upper support looks to be well N, across the Dakotas, so this front will probably remain dry. The lingering bndry could play a role with mixing/temps, esp. for Tue. A stronger push of Srly flow will move in for Wed and continue into Thu...and these look to be the warmest days of the forecast with highs well into the 90s. Can`t rule out some convection during this time with several impulses nearby and ongoing WAA, but details are quite murky this far out. Appears some sort of cold front will move through late next week and knock temps down closer to normal and bring our next chc for shwrs/tstms. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday) Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Skies have cleared out, but stratus is expected to develop late tonight into Saturday morning. There is a good potential to dip to IFR ceilings for at least a few hours. Fog is also possible, but with continued south winds, there is some question to how dense/widespread it becomes. Therefore, the 2SM visibilities were maintained for now. Ceilings improve Saturday morning, and south winds gusting 25-30kts. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Mangels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
753 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 746 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Lingering light rain and drizzle is expected to end toward late evening, as upper level low pressure pulls away from our region. A clearing trend is expected from north to south overnight and Saturday morning, leaving mostly sunny skies prevailing by afternoon. Expect temperatures to rise well into the 60s on Saturday, while breezy southeast winds on Mothers Day bump temperatures into the lower 70s. A more significant warming trend is expected early in the work week, with temperatures close to 90 degrees by Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Still seeing areas of light rain and drizzle across much of the forecast area this evening, as a well defined vort max slides along the Illinois/Missouri border. Lots of stratus still is in place, but cloud heights over the northern CWA are showing significant improvement, and the low clouds will continue to be pushed south of the area the next several hours as skies clear from the northwest. Recent forecast updates were to adjust the PoP and sky trends the next several hours. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Latest RAP analysis shows a closed 500-mb low remains positioned over Illinois/Indiana. Water vapor imagery shows two upper level vort max swirling over the region, the stronger one over TN responsible for a sfc low (centered over KY at 3pm/20z), while a weaker one just west of the IL River is helping support continued drizzle and light showers. These waves will finally meander away from the local area tonight, reaching the mid-Atlantic by early Saturday morning. Precip should gradually end from west to east tonight, subsiding everywhere by about midnight. Lows will drop into the mid- 40s across most of the area. Cloud cover is expected to depart by Saturday morning, though a few lingering clouds are possible east of I-55 on Saturday. Temperatures will be milder, but just how warm they get remains a point of uncertainty, as mostly clear May skies compete with continued northeasterly flow on the backside of the departing sfc low. This is especially true across the northeastern portions of the CWA, where the sfc flow may advect lake-modified air in. The latest guidance (NBM, MOS) want to push high temps to near 70, which seems a tad aggressive. An investigation of forecast soundings show afternoon mixing to near 850mb, and extrapolating the expected 850mb temps (around +6 to +7 degC) suggests sfc high temps in the mid-60s. Ultimately, went with a high temp forecast in the upper 60s to trend upwards from previous forecasts without being quite as aggressive as the latest guidance. By Saturday night, sfc winds shift to easterly, in part due to the weakening influence of the sfc low to our east, as well as the increasing influence of pressure falls over the western Plains. Lows are expected to be in the upper 40s Saturday night, near normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 The main story for the extended period is going to be the summer-like heat and humidity. Mother`s Day will have pleasant temperatures, with highs near 70. Continued surface pressure falls over the west central Plains will tighten the pressure gradient over the heart of the country, leading to breezy southeasterly winds in central IL. Forecast soundings suggest peak gusts around 35 mph on Sunday. Winds look even stronger on Monday, with sustained southeasterly winds around 20-25 mph and gusts potentially in excess of 40 mph. Into next week, a Rex Block develops just off the east coast as high pressure strengths over New England, north of a low just off the mid-Atlantic Coast, the same low that is over Kentucky today. With this blocking pattern in place, upper level ridging is expected to develop and strengthen over the Midwest. Global models continue to show the potential for 500-mb heights above 5900m from Tuesday- Thursday, which, if verifies, would be among the highest observed values for the month of May in central IL (per the ILX sounding climatology). Both NBM and MOS guidance suggest highs near 90 or into the low 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday, with upper 80s on Thursday and Friday. That`s approaching record high temperatures, though given the 500-mb heights forecast to be near record levels as well, it seems appropriate. Regardless of whether record-setting temperatures occur, it`s going to feel like summer. Dewpoints are expected to climb into the mid-60s to low 70s for Tuesday through Thursday, pushing heat indices into the upper 90s on those days. Ridging prevails through most of the week, though confidence in the pattern evolution starts to decrease late in the week as the low pressure system retrogrades westward into the southeastern US. In terms of precipitation, chances are low through at least Thursday. Precip can`t completely be ruled out as disturbances pass NW of the ridge axis (tracking from the western Plains into the Upper Midwest). If any precip or cloud cover associated with it manages to filter into our CWA, it could keep temps from reaching the near-record values that are currently forecast. However, prefer to lean on the strong synoptic signal for anomalously warm temps rather than hedge temps lower than guidance because of low confidence precip chances 4+ days into the future. Subsidence associated with the strong ridging will also be a factor, acting to limit precip development. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 IFR conditions remain widespread early this evening, but ceilings have edged above 1,000 feet west of a KPIA/KIJX line. With time, cloud heights will increase from north to south across the forecast area this evening, and should be above 3,000 feet at all sites by 06-08Z. North/northeast winds will remain gusty overnight, and gusts above 20 knots continue through much of Saturday in eastern Illinois. Further west, winds should diminish to just under 10 knots Saturday morning. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SYNOPSIS...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Erwin LONG TERM...Erwin AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1145 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 954 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 The forecast remains in good shape. Although a few minor adjustments were made to match observations. Low level clouds and and isolated showers are still present over the region in association with a surface low that moved through earlier this afternoon. Forecast soundings show low level saturation with weak ascent will persist into early Saturday morning thus expect low clouds and a few isolated light showers to stick around overnight. Cold air advection filtering in behind the surface low and subsidence from a building ridge will begin to break up clouds and dry out the region by daybreak. && .Short Term...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 * Lingering scattered showers or patchy drizzle tonight. * Dry and Decreasing cloudiness on Saturday * Clear Saturday night Surface analysis early this afternoon shows an area of low pressure over Southern Central Indiana and Central KY. Cyclonic flow was found across the forecast area and the region...extending north to the southern Great Lakes and south to the deep south. Water vapor shows a deep trough aloft over the Tennessee Valley with a plume of tropical moisture streaming ahead of the low across Appalachia. The warm sector across Central Indiana at this time was limited to points south and east of New Castle to Columbus to west of Seymour. GOES16 show abundant cloud cover across Central Indiana...with radar shows scattered light showers across the forecast area. A thunderstorm had developed over Rush county and was quickly move NE into the cold sector and out of the forecast area. Tonight... Models shows the surface low slowly pushing east tonight...taking the best forcing and warm sector with it to Ohio and WVA. The upper support also still is expected to pivot east...exiting the area and taking the strongest forcing with it. However the deep low looks to continue to provide broad cyclonic flow across the area overnight. forecast soundings and time heights continue to suggest plenty of lower level saturation through the night...with pwats over 1 inch. HRRR continues to suggest warp around sct/iso light rain showers across Central Indiana this evening and early overnight. Thus will continue to keep some shower chances this evening but slowly lower pops overnight as the low finally begins to depart east after 06Z and dry air is suggested to infiltrate the column via the forecast soundings. With the warm sector expected to be to our east...thunder will not be expected. Saturday... Models show cyclonic flow lingering across Central Indiana in the morning before a strong ridge axis aloft stretching from the southern plains across the Mississippi valley to the Western Great Lakes begins to build across Indiana. Leeside NW flow will allow for subsidence and surface high pressure to build across Indiana...allowing for gradually clearing skies. Forecast soundings start the day with lower level saturation...but show a dry column late in the day. Thus will aim for a morning cloudiness with clearing through the day. Given the expected cold air advection...will trend highs at or cooler than the NBM...mainly in the mid 60s. Saturday Night... Strong high pressure stretching from Quebec to the Ohio and Tennessee River Vallies will reside across Central Indiana. Strong ridging along with associated subsidence is expected aloft. Thus Clear skies and light and cool east winds will be expected. && .Long Term...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 - Cool weather continues through the weekend - Breezy conditions possible on Monday - Summer-like temperatures next week, approaching record highs in places The long term will begin on the cool side, with an upper-level low exiting to the east. East-northeasterly to easterly flow behind this system will keep temperatures on the cool side through Sunday. The warm-up begins on Monday, however, as high pressure settles in and winds gain a southerly component. Said winds may be a bit on the gusty side as a tight pressure gradient develops between our high and surface low pressure in the northern Plains. Gusts over 20 kts are possible on Sunday, and over 25 kts on Monday. The upper-low exiting to the east is expected to cut off from the jet stream and stall over the western Atlantic. This system will then meander westward or southwestward for several days. Temperatures and precip chances late next week depend on the eventual track of this system. At the same time, a large trough digs into the western United States and a narrow ridge is expected to be situated between this trough and the cut-off low to our east. The position of the low is important for a few reasons. If the low ends up further east, the axis of the ridge can be closer to Indiana, allowing increased southwesterly flow to reach our CWA. In that case, temperatures would be on the higher end of guidance. However, in the opposite scenario...the upper-low traveling further west... the ridge would be positioned to our west. Surface winds would have more of an easterly component to them. While temperatures would still be well-above average, record highs would be harder to attain in this case. As of right now, the best chance for record-breaking temperatures appears to be on Tuesday and Wednesday. Guidance largely agrees that the ridge will be centered more or less over Indiana, which will lead to the warmest temps. After Wednesday, the upper-low will begin its slow westward motion. Guidance begins to diverge, but still shows the ridge easing slightly westward with time. Regarding precipitation potential, the upper-low`s ultimate track comes into play here as well. The west coast trough will attempt to make eastward progress, but if it is hindered by the cut-off low...then any precipitation associated with it will also be delayed. The bulk of guidance depicts thunderstorm activity remaining in the Plains for a majority of the period, with little eastward progress due to the presence of the upper-low. Since the trough is further away than the ridge, both scenarios regarding the path of the upper-low will act to delay the onset of precip in will hold off on PoPs for now. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 IMPACTS: * IFR to MVFR conditions across the TAF sites tonight. * VFR conditions return by daybreak. * 20-25kt gusts possible. DISCUSSION: Isolated rain showers will dissipate over the next few hours as a surface low exits the region. Some locations have improved to MVFR, but Cigs may stay borderline IFR/MVFR over the next few hours for KIND and KBMG. Cigs will begin to improve across all TAF sites thereafter. Winds will remain out of N/NE at 10-15 knots with 20- 25kt gusts possible in some locations. High pressure in place over the Great Lakes is expected to build across Indiana as the low exits the region. This will allow for drier weather and a return to VFR conditions later today. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...Melo Short Term...Puma Long Term...Eckhoff Aviation...Melo
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
858 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple lows will impact the region through Sunday. High pressure returns through the middle parts of next week. Low pressure system will sit off the eastern seaboard for most of next week leading to continue cloud cover and chances for showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A nearly stationary boundary remains over central Virginia this evening. Closed upper-level low pressure along with its surface low will track along the boundary tonight. Deep layer shear profiles remain quite strong, and the stable layer over central Virginia (closer to the boundary) is quite shallow. Therefore, storms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and perhaps even a tornado are possible through this evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 PM. This watch may need to be extended a couple hours or so for portions of central Virginia. Elsewhere, a deeper stable layer near the surface will cause convection to be elevated. However, the flood threat continues. Latest mesoanalysis shows anomalously high pwats around 1 to 1.6 inches, and plenty of low-level frontogenetical forcing is expected along the 850mb boundary that will remain overhead and along the 850mb low and 700mb low that will be tracking through the region. Elevated instability is also adding a locally heavy element to rainfall. These factors combined will cause more moderate to heavy rainfall through the night. Additional rainfall amounts around 1 to 3 inches are most likely across the area. FFG remains higher around the VA Piedmont into southern MD, so the flood watch is not in effect for these areas. However, localized flooding is possible from the moderate to heavy rain. Confidence for flooding is higher to the north and west across the rest of the CWA where FFG is lower. There have been several reports of flooding across the Potomac Highlands into north-central Maryland already. Another concern is for gusty northeast winds (mainly near and northeast of the Potomac River) overnight. As low pressure tracks along the boundary, rapidly falling pressures will cause northeast winds to increase. Frequent gusts around 35 to 45 mph are likely. Did issue a wind advisory across northeastern MD where peak gusts around 50 mph are most likely. Several runs of the HRRR how 40 knots in the mixing layer, despite the stability, and other guidance shows 40 knots around the top of the shallow mixing layer as well. The upper-level low will slowly pass through the area Saturday while coastal low pressure strengthens off the North Carolina Coast. More rain is expected during this time, but rainfall rates should diminish to a light rain by the afternoon as most of the low-level fgen forcing moves offshore. Additional issues with flooding are likely. The Watch continues through Saturday morning for most areas. The Wind Advisory continues for gusty northeast winds over northeastern MD. Elsewhere, gusty northeast winds are expected, but most gusts will be around 25 to 40 mph (highest gusts near and northeast of the Potomac River Saturday morning, and across the rest of the CWA during the afternoon). Some light rain may hang around Saturday night, and it will be chilly with a north to northeast wind. Additional rainfall amounts will be light. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The coastal low and the upper level low will continue shifting off- shore on Sunday. Shortwave energy on the backside of the upper low will combine with a NE to easterly flow to produce some continued showers through Sunday afternoon. It seems showers should be focused east of the Blue Ridge Mtns on Sunday with some showers potentially lingering into early Monday morning. A general northeast to easterly flow lead to continue cooler condition on Sunday in the 50s. Gusty winds over the Northeastern half of our CWA may linger into Sunday afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As our slow-moving weekend system moves offshore and high pressure builds behind it, Monday sets up an omega block pattern, keeping the offshore low meandering along the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast. High pressure remains in place keeping us dry, and eventually builds to the north of the offshore wobbling low creating more of a rex block pattern. Cool conditions thanks to N/NE flow will start the week with below normal temperatures and gradually warm through the week. The offshore low will eventually return to shore along the southeast coast. Depending on how the low tracks, there is some potential for precipitation (primarily south and east of I-95) Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers will continue to impact all terminals through early Sunday morning. IFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR vsbys are most likely tonight into Saturday. Conditions will gradually improve later Saturday into Sunday, but MVFR conditions are still possible. The best chance for a strong to severe storm will be around KCHO through 3z. Elsewhere, any storms will be elevated. Gusty northeast winds will develop overnight into Saturday across the northeastern terminals, with the strongest winds around KBWI, KMTN, and KDCA (30-35 knot gusts). Gusty north to northeast winds will spread farther south later Saturday into the rest of the terminals. Winds should start to lesson into Saturday night into Sunday. Mostly VFR conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday, but sub-VFR conditions are possible (particularly at night) depending on how the low offshore develops. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected tonight. Gale force winds will develop early Saturday morning over the northern Bay and these winds will gradually shift down through the middle portion of the Bay later Saturday morning and afternoon. A Gale Warning is in effect. Northeast wind gusts around 40 to 45 knots are possible across these areas. A Gale Watch remains in effect for the lower Tidal Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay south of Drum Point for Saturday afternoon, and a Gale Watch remains in effect for the Bay and lower Tidal Potomac River Saturday night through Sunday. Elsewhere, SCA winds are expected during this time. North to northeasterly flow will prevail through the period. Channeling, as a result, will likely require SCA issuance over portions of the waters Monday and Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... An onshore flow will cause tidal anomalies to increase through this evening as low pressure passes by to the south. The low will remain off the coast through the weekend, causing elevated water levels. Minor flooding is possible, but confidence is low since the flow will be north of east. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for DCZ001. MD...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MDZ001-003>006-011- 013-014-501>508. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ008-507- 508. VA...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ025-026-029-036>040- 050-051-502>504-507-508. Flood Watch through Saturday morning for VAZ027-028-030-031- 052>054-501-505-506. WV...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for WVZ050>053-055- 501>506. MARINE...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ANZ535. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for ANZ530>533-538>541. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>533- 538>541. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for ANZ534-537-542-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...BJL/JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...CAS AVIATION...JMG/CAS MARINE...JMG/CAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMG/BJL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
225 PM PDT Fri May 6 2022 .SHORT TERM... This afternoon through Sunday night... Rather unsettled conditions are expected to continue across much of the CWA the rest of the afternoon and evening. So far T-storms embedded in fairly widespread shower activity have been prevalent across parts of central Oregon extending into the Blue Mtns and adjacent foothills areas, lining up well with higher model CAPE values of 500-800j/kg. This development has been in-spite of strong 70-90 knot bulk wind shear between 0-6km working to vertically separate and weaken convective parcels as they develop. Latest HRRR and HREF runs continue to keep a chance for stronger shower and T- storms in place over much of the CWA focused over the aforementioned areas into the early evening hours at which point waning daytime heating brings the chance for stronger convective showers to an end. Overall the rest of the short term period will be characterized by active and showery conditions accompanied by gusty winds on Saturday, and afternoon T-storm chances mainly over the mountains of eastern Oregon. Snow levels appear low enough for wintry weather near the passes however given the time of year impacts look very limited and confined to the overnight hours, if at all. The main focus through the short term will be on the previously mentioned windy conditions Saturday afternoon and evening across the east slopes of the Cascades and Columbia river Gorge extending into the Columbia Basin and northern Oregon; gusts 35-45mph likely. In the wake of the cold front and shortwave passage tonight zonal westerly flow continues to facilitate showery activity across the region, slowly regressing towards the higher terrain of the Cascades and mountains of eastern Oregon headed into Saturday morning. Snow levels lower to 4000-4500ft during this time period with snowfall possible for the higher pass zones although accumulations likely remain confined to heavier showers and grassy areas. Saturday strong westerly cyclonic flow continues as shower development gradually increases as the day progresses, peaking the afternoon, along with a slight chance for a rumble of thunder or two near the mountains of eastern Oregon. The convective environment doesnt look nearly as conducive to T-storms as the day prior with the NAM suggesting CAPE values around 100-400j/kg. Outside of the weak T-storm potential the primary impact Saturday appears to be breezy to windy conditions across much of the CWA in the afternoon and evening hours. Models are in good agreement for widespread 35-45 mph gusts from the east slopes of Cascades and Columbia gorge through north-central Oregon and much of the Columbia basin and Blue Mtn foothills, aided by a robust surface pressure gradient and mixed layer extending into a region of 35-40 knot winds near 800-850mb, and weak to moderate isotropic decent off the Cascades. The ECMWF/GFS ensemble 6 hour max wind gusts depicts a rather tight spread between individual ensemble members in this expected range helping to increase confidence in the breezy to windy conditions; high confidence in 35-45mph gusts. The Simcoe Highlands, Columbia Gorge, and Kittitas Valley could see locally higher sustained wind speeds and gusts, 25-30mph and 45- 55mph respectively, so have issued wind advisories for these locations. Winds decrease later in the evening and overnight as the surface pressure gradient and winds aloft weaken. Snow levels drop a bit lower Saturday night while showers persist, bottoming out near 2-2.5kft. Fortunately warmer sub-surface temperatures keeps any appreciable accumulation to the higher elevations, limiting pass concerns. On Sunday another trough of low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest, increasing shower activity during the afternoon hours. Models take most of the energy and accompanying precipitation with this disturbance into the southern portion of the CWA near the southern Oregon Cascades, central Oregon, and Ochoco John-day highlands, although showers likely extend north of this region into the Blues/Wallowas and WA Cascades. For now most guidance keeps a good chunk of the Columbia Basin dry but any northern deviation in the storm track could result in showers being added to the forecast. Isolated T-storms again cant be ruled out in the afternoon hours over the mountains of eastern Oregon and near the Cascades crests as well. Shower activity gradually decreases Sunday evening and overnight. 99/82 .LONG TERM... Monday through Friday... Large scale upper trough will continue over the Pacific Northwest through Monday with a low dropping into California. This will continue have a scattered showers and a chance of afternoon thunderstorms over mainly Oregon and mountains of Washington. The low should continue south, elongating the trough with continued chance of showers/slight chance of thunderstorms over the Blue Mountains yet Tuesday. Models in agreement with the system finally shifting east on Wednesday with mainly dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Southwest flow on Thursday ahead of the next system to bring a chance of showers back to mainly the mountains through Friday. 93 && AVIATION...00z TAFs...Showers with localized MVFR to IFR conditions possible under heavier bands of rain with thunderstorms at or near the vicinity of PDT and ALW through 03z with more scattered showers at remaining sites. Most showers will be ending after about 05z. sct- bkn cigs 050-080 will persist through most of the period. West winds 15-20kts with gusts near 30kt at RDM/BDN will continue overnight wit the other locations seeing the strong winds move in after 12z Saturday. Winds will increase further after 18z with widespread 20- 30kts with higher gusts. 93 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 44 56 35 55 / 90 50 20 30 ALW 46 57 38 57 / 90 70 20 20 PSC 50 63 41 61 / 60 40 0 10 YKM 43 60 33 58 / 50 20 10 20 HRI 47 60 38 60 / 70 30 10 20 ELN 39 54 33 54 / 60 20 10 20 RDM 38 52 28 48 / 80 60 30 70 LGD 40 51 31 49 / 100 80 20 40 GCD 40 51 30 49 / 90 90 30 60 DLS 47 58 40 57 / 90 60 40 60 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ041. WA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM PDT Saturday for WAZ024-026- 521. && $$ SHORT TERM...99/82 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...93
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
942 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 .UPDATE... Expand light fog areas & add a slight chance pop 12-15Z in E TX. SHORT TERM.../Tonight through mid morning on Saturday/ We have expanded the light patchy fog with T/Tds near saturation in many locales. Most of this will not even be a problem and lift very quickly with sunrise and heating under a near surface inversion. However, the 18Z guidance has been light with 4 to 6 mi mist at most. The GFS and HRRR models have been showing a few blips of QPF signal of light rain or maybe drizzle from what will be a greater concentration of low clouds lifting and squeezing out a few drops. And only from daybreak into the mid morning hours along our weak returning warm front tail. There may be some more isolated convective activity during the early to middle afternoon near the Toledo Bend dam, but will differ the late morning and afternoon timeframe to new 00Z runs. Otherwise light and variable or maybe calm wind early in the day and then E/SE winds with lots of evap from the freshly soaked soils, adding to the not yet even here humidity. Reminder, Ozone Action Day in the mix as well, for these light winds early with better mixing winds by late morning. No other changes needed at this time. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 727 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022/ AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex terminals, a large 1024mb air mass north of the Great Lakes extends down the MS Rvr valley behind a large parent low in the Ohio Rvr valley and off the eastern seaboard. This high pressure will retreat north by tomorrow allowing for our winds from the E/SE 5-10KT to filter muggy Gulf air back inland. The tail end of our recent fropa will lift back across E TX tonight with some daybreak to mid a.m. vicinity showers with a fair aftn expected area wide as upper level high pressure arrives. /24/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022/ UPDATE... Added Ozone Action Day headline for several TX counties. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday Night/ Northwesterly winds along with dry northwesterly flow aloft has settled over the region in wake of the recent upper trough and cold front passage. This has resulted in mostly clear skies and less humid conditions across the area. Weak surface high pressure will settle over the region this evening, and winds will become lgt/variable to calm. At the same time, the recent frontal boundary will return northward into our East Texas counties, generally along and south of Interstate 20. The will bring some low clouds and patchy fog to those areas. With clear skies, wet grounds from recent rains, and the sfc high in place, conditions could be just enough for additional patchy fog to develop across the remainder of the region, especially across SE OK and Southern Arkansas near the center of the surface high. The fog will lift by mid morning, with dry conditions continuing throughout the day on Saturday. But, with the warm front returning, the humidity and warmer conditions will return to portions of the region. Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s in areas behind the front, with locations across SE OK/SW AR/NE Louisiana that are ahead of the front, topping out in the mid 80s. The warm front will pull up stationary across the region Saturday night, with the gradient in temps and humidity remaining. Expect overnight near 60 degrees across SE OK/SW AR/NE Louisiana, with the remainder of the region south of the front only falling into the mid to upper 60s. LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday Night/ Upper-level ridge to prevail across the region at the start of the long-term period allowing for stable conditions areawide characterized by mostly clear skies and hot temperatures. An enhanced pressure gradient, resulting from a surface high across the Appalachians and an area of low pressure east of the Rockies, to bring persistent southerly winds around 10 to 15 mph across the ArkLaTex. Increased winds will provide sufficient mixing to limit afternoon high temperatures to the lower 90s through Monday. However, with winds forecast to relax and upper-ridging to strengthen from Tuesday into Wednesday, temperatures will approach the mid 90s across most locations with possibly the exception of the higher elevations in McCurtain county which will experience high temperatures limited to the lower 90s. At this time, dew point values are forecast to remain near or below 70 degrees throughout the long term period, which will restrict afternoon heat index values from exceeding 100 degrees. Otherwise, pattern to shift late in the forecast period as a closed upper-low across the Atlantic is forecast to retrograde westward on Thursday into Thursday night allowing for the possibility for increased rain chances next weekend. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 60 89 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 58 85 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 53 84 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 57 84 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 54 84 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 64 90 71 93 / 0 10 0 0 GGG 61 89 68 93 / 0 10 0 0 LFK 65 93 70 95 / 0 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 24/20/05
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Key Points: - Pleasant conditions return for the weekend. - Well above normal temperatures are expected for much of next week. Water vapor imagery at 19Z shows our departing upper trough continuing into the Ohio River Valley and a weaker trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, leaving a low-amplitude ridge to develop over the southwest CONUS. This sets the stage for the pattern change heading into next week. In the meantime, clouds have been slow to move out of the area this afternoon and have adjusted highs a bit cooler in the mid to upper 60s as a result. This is the main challenge for the short-term part of the forecast. Hi-res guidance (namely the HRRR and especially RAP) have hinted at cloud cover sticking around into the evening, particularly toward central KS. The RAP appears most robust with hanging onto low-level moisture through the overnight hours, developing low stratus again in central KS with eastern KS clearing out. If skies do clear enough, there could be some fog in the morning as winds remain light. Not enough confidence yet in seeing that develop on a widespread basis as it will depend how much clearing can make its way into eastern KS, but it`s something worth monitoring. By Saturday morning, we should see a return to southerly winds as the ridge makes its way overhead. Weak perturbations within southwesterly upper flow result in lee surface troughing by evening with a tightening pressure gradient through the day. This begins our substantial warming trend with highs in the 70s, then into the 80s on Sunday. Locations along the KS/NE border may be a bit cooler on Sunday as energy passing to the north brings a small chance of showers/thunderstorms early Sunday with clearing into the afternoon. For the rest of the week, our current departing trough looks to park itself off the Eastern Seaboard with the ridge becoming increasingly amplified. This puts an omega block in place with our area on the western periphery of the strong ridge. Ensemble data shows temperatures above the 90th percentile for much of the week, leading to increasing confidence in a prolonged stretch of very warm weather. One potential caveat is that there are other weak perturbations moving within the flow on the western side of the ridge, which puts low chances of precip into the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. That could provide some relief if it occurs, but at this point would anticipate that being short-lived. Most locations should see highs in the 90s Monday through Thursday, with Tuesday looking to be the hottest day as the thermal axis moves into the area. The best rain chance this period comes late in the week as a stronger shortwave in the western US pushes the broad trough closer to the area, so we likely have to wait until then to feel any meaningful relief from the heat. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 Scattered to broken ceilings should remain in the low end VFR range into the overnight hours, though can`t completely rule out them briefly dipping to MVFR this evening. Will also keep an eye on the potential for some early morning fog if skies can clear out, but confidence is low in this occurring as well. Winds remain light overnight before becoming southeasterly at 10 to 13 kts during the day tomorrow. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Reese