Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/06/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022
IFR to MVFR conditions are expected at KAMA and KGUY to start the
TAF period. Low clouds are continuing to linger across the
central and eastern Panhandles this morning and should last for at
least a few more hours. After 14-16z, all sites should be VFR for
the rest of this TAF cycle. Winds will increase this morning to
15-20 kts with higher gusts. Winds will diminish after sunset and
will be light overnight.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022/
SHORT TERM...Today through tomorrow night...
Quiet weather is expected across the forecast area during the
short term. A cooler day is anticipated across the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandle with cloud cover remaining across the area
through mid morning. The beginning of Summer like weather will
begin on Friday, with temperatures warming into the mid 80s to
Current H500 RAP analysis has an upper level low pressure system
situated over southeastern Colorado early this morning. The main
axis of the trough is currently just to the west of the CWA in
central/eastern New Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms are
continuing this morning to the south and east of the area. A few
showers or storms may form in the northeastern Panhandles with
outflow boundaries from previous convection still lingering across
The aforementioned H500 low will propagate east during the day and
is expected to remain just to the north of the Panhandles.
Northwesterly flow aloft will continue down to the surface today.
These winds will keep a cooler airmass over the Panhandles for a
majority of the day. Low level and surface temperatures will warm
into the 60s and 70s today, which will be just below normal for
early May in the Panhandles.
The beginning of the warm up will commence on Friday, when an
upper level ridge begins to build across the central CONUS.
Underneath this ridge, strong WAA will be present across the
Desert Southwest and will begin to extend across the Southern High
Plains. With H850 temperatures approaching 25 to nearly 30 C in
the western zones, temperatures will warm up into the mid 80s to
low 90s, which is well above average for early May. For reference,
the average high temperatures across the Panhandles this time of
year is around 76 to 77 degrees. With high pressure situated to
the east of the CWA, mainly clear skies with light winds (for
Panhandle standards) are expected tomorrow.
LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday)...
Overall, the main hazard in the long term will be the hot
temperatures this weekend as some areas reach triple digits for
highs. This will especially be true for the Canyon where we may
need heat a advisory. These early season heat waves are concerning
for Palo Duro Canyon goers that don`t realize how hot in can be in
the Canyon compared to Amarillo. Otherwise, with those warm
temperatures we will also be looking at the threat for fire
weather this weekend and into early next week, but we have a few
concerns that may limit these chances to some degree. Lastly, we
do have a chance for showers and thunderstorms by middle of next
week, but confidence is low at this time for exact coverage and
timing in addition to overall chances.
Starting Saturday, an area of H5 high pressure over the equator
will shift northward over Mexico through the weekend into Texas
and other southern CONUS states by next week. This will help block
a large area of cyclonic flow aloft as a longwave trough develops
over the western CONUS, and puts the Panhandles in southwesterly
flow for several days. Several warm days will be in store under
this pattern with lots of sunshine through the weekend. It
shouldn`t come as a surprise if heat advisories are issued this
weekend for the Canyon into perhaps early next week. As of now,
Saturday looks like the best bet for that to occur given the
trends and current forecast temperature around 105 in the Canyon.
In addition to the heat, our afternoon RH values will drop down
into single digits this weekend, especially areas out west. Those
areas that haven`t received rainfall should be on the look out for
Red Flag Warnings as the fire threat comes back into play. The
threat at least does appear marginal given the lower end wind
speeds. Forecast soundings show good mixing with low level lapse
rates, but the flow aloft is weak. Nevertheless, a Red Flag
Warning may be needed this weekend into early next week, mainly
for the western zones along and near the New Mexico border where
RFTI values may be around 5-6 (spotty 7). Wind speeds may be the
limiting factor around 15-25 mph with perhaps an hour or two
around 30 mph sustained.
Lastly, this broad area of cyclonic may introduce some embedded
shortwaves within the southwesterly flow. This could bring a
round or two of rainfall to the forecast area by the middle to
end of next week. As of now, the overall synoptic pattern is weak.
That said, we do have a good moisture source from the Pacific, so
severe weather cannot be completely ruled out, but these storms
will likely be high based. Still a lot of forecasting left to
figure all that out, but for now we will carry 20% PoPs in this
forecast for Tuesday afternoon/evening as well as Wednesday
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
946 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022
Issued at 946 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022
Tweaked near term sky cover a bit with this update as low stratus
across the south central and southern James River Valley is
holding on longer than initially thought. It is possible low
stratus could linger over at least a portion of this area through
the night before expanding in coverage early tomorrow morning.
UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022
With this update we slightly expanded the patchy fog mention for
overnight into tomorrow morning south and east more into the James
River Valley based on the area that near term guidance is
pinpointing. Otherwise, no major changes are needed.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022
Stratus/fog highlights the short term forecast period.
Currently, a pretty expansive area of stratocumulus clouds extends
from the far south central into eastern North Dakota. Elsewhere,
skies were clear within an area of upper level ridging over a
southern stream upper low and ahead of an approaching strong upper
trough in the eastern Pacific.
Tonight, the The upper ridge over our area drops south and east
behind the southern stream low, but northern stream ridging will
remain as the eastern Pacific system lifts into the Northern U.S.
and southern British Columbia Rockies. This will keep the forecast
area dry tonight, but with increasing southerly flow ahead of
cyclogenesis in the lee of the Canadian and Northern Rockies, it
looks like we will see another surge in low level moisture into
the forecast area late tonight into Friday morning. At this time
it looks like stratus could set up along and east of the Highway
83 corridor by Friday morning. We could see some patchy fog as
well but with the increasing winds and high clouds, stratus seems
to be the better option. Currently the HRRR and RAP are both
indicating an area of stratus lifting into the forecast area after
06 UTC. There are some indications of fog along the western
periphery so we might add some patchy fog along/east of the
Missouri River Valley. Overnight lows tonight will be mainly in
On Friday, an impulse rotating around the British Columbia upper
low will push a warm front through the state. There could be some
scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm along the
warm front but instability will be weak with only marginal bulk
shear. Friday will be breezy to windy with southerly winds ahead
of the frontal boundary. The low stratus and increasing mid and
high clouds associated with the impulse skirting the northwest CWA
will keep temperatures about the same or a little cooler than
today. Highs will generally be in the mid 60s east to the mid 70s
west. We do see winds shift more westerly in western ND Friday
afternoon with drier air also working its way into the western
forecast area. This will bring afternoon dewpoints down into the
upper teens and lower 20s over the far west, and with sustained
winds around 20 mph, we could see some fire weather concerns for
the first time in a while. At this time it looks like the
timeframe would be late afternoon and would not occur long enough
to warrant Fire weather highlights. SPC is advertising elevated
fire weather concerns over northcentral and into northeast
Montana Friday afternoon, but conditions here would occur over a
longer duration. Certainly some thing to monitor overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022
An active pattern is expected through the long term period with
hit and miss shower and thunderstorms chances almost daily.
As the Canadian upper low sits and spins over British Columbia,
another wave moves onto the western U.S. Coast and tracks into the
Northern Rockies by Saturday morning. The wave then propagates
into eastern Montana by around 00 UTC Sunday. This will result in
increasing instability Saturday afternoon over central North
Dakota. Cape values of around 500-1500 j/kg are expected with bulk
shear ranging from around 35 to 50 kts. SPC depicts a marginal
risk of severe weather over central SD into NE. We are still quite
a ways out, but if we can reach the level of moisture return
depicted by the RAP, and given the amount of bulk shear and 0-3km
helicity, a few strong to severe storms could be possible.
Beyond Saturday we well remain in a favorable upper level pattern
for near daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. At this time
it looks like possibly the Sunday night-Monday timeframe and then
the very end and/or beyond the long term period (Thursday-Friday)
being favorable for better precipitation chances as these
timeframe feature a stronger wave tracking through the forecast
area. In between, there are hints at some upper level ridging over
the northern plains, but we remain within a broad southwest upper
flow so even during the middle of the upcoming work week we could
still see a passing shower or thunderstorm. Temperatures through
the period remain seasonable with highs in the 60s and lower 70s
and overnight lows mostly in the 40s and lower 50s.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 946 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022
For the most part, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. Low, but still VFR level stratus, is holding on longer
than anticipated at KJMS and could continue through the overnight
hours. Otherwise, overnight into the morning, patchy fog may
develop from KBIS to KJMS, though confidence is too low for any
mention in the TAFs other than a lowering ceiling. Increased cloud
cover and lowering ceilings are expected across all terminals
tomorrow morning, with MVFR ceilings expected at KJMS. Some light
rain showers may accompany this cloud cover, but confidence in
this is also currently low. Winds will remain out of the south-
southeast with a light breeze across all terminals through at
least 12Z, with winds then beginning to shift out of the west at
KDIK and KXWA through the remainder of the morning, and possibly
KMOT and KBIS by the end of the period.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
805 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022
Low pressure system passing west to east to our south will bring
widespread off and on rain tonight through Saturday. That low
pressure system sill stall off the mid Atlantic coast while high
pressure builds. The area will be caught between that system and
a ridge aloft that will set up just to the west, which will try
to bring warmer air to the region through the middle of next
week in a drier overall pattern.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Update: Freshened hourly POPs through tonight based on current
conditions and upstream trends...sped up the arrival of rain a
bit, and hit most of the area with 100% POPs to reflect the
inevitability of rain tonight...only area a bit uncertain is
towards Northwest PA, but even there a bit of rain is a decent
likelihood. Other small item we`ll look into the remainder of
this evening is flood potential over the coming days, especially
in our southern counties where a solid 1.50-2.00" of rain is
forecast through Saturday morning. It helps that the heavier
hits of that rain...later tonight/early Friday, and then again
Friday night, will be somewhat spread out.
Previous Discussion: Upcoming wet and dreary weather CWA-wide.
Mid Mississippi Valley low pressure system will work its way up
the Ohio Valley, and will bring periodic rain to the entire CWA
for the near term portion of the forecast. High level clouds
already moving in from the WSW, and will continue to thicken and
lower tonight as the system gets closer. Radar echoes appearing
in the southwestern zones, but likely not reaching the ground
at this time. POPs enter the picture around 20Z or so in light
rain with isentropic lift at the 300K surface. This forcing of
this rain will ultimately transition to mid level frontogenesis
that will gradually strengthen in waves over the CWA from
tonight through Friday. The pattern of the POP grids are largely
tailored towards this evolution. Meanwhile, the occluding
frontal system will largely stay to the south of the CWA. SPC
keeps the area in general thunder, and think the only real
thunder potential will be across the far southern zones. The mid
level lapse rates have a sharp gradient that is largely
oriented west to east along the CWA boundary keeping the 5C/km
plus values along that southern tier of counties and south.
North of that line, much lower/stable conditions in the mid
levels will largely keep it rain with embedded showers of
heavier rainfall rates. Being north of the system also keeps the
maximum low level moisture flux south of the area as well. In
then end, looking at an inch to an inch and a half of rain
through the period. Probably going to reach action stage at some
of the more susceptible gage sites across the CWA, and minor
flooding in isolated pockets is not out of the question,
especially over the southern zones where convective activity is
not completely out of the question as mentioned earlier. Winds
will increase out of the northeast in a strengthening pressure
gradient as the low pressure system passes to the south.
Temperatures a few degrees below normal for the most part.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cool, raw, and rainy Saturday is unfortunately a guarantee due to
the mid/upper closed low slowly rotating from the Ohio Valley
Saturday morning to the Mid Atlantic coast by Saturday night.
Forcing remains strong Saturday morning as persistent upper
diffluence to the north of the low induces a 30 knot easterly low-
level jet. This low-level jet actually advects some Atlantic
moisture back into the Ohio Valley which wraps into a mid-level
deformation zone as the low pulls east. This will lead to bands of
widespread rain through midday, with the greatest coverage east of I-
71. Kept thunder out of the forecast since the widespread rain and
showers will prevent much if any instability, but a few rumbles
cannot be entirely ruled out along the US 30 corridor closer to the
surface front. As the low pulls toward the Mid Atlantic coast
Saturday afternoon and evening, surface high pressure over the
northern Great Lakes will begin to advect drier air into the region,
so showers will gradually decrease from NW to SE. Additional
rainfall on Saturday will range from 0.10 to 0.25 inches east of I-
71, with lesser amounts farther west since the most persistent band
of rain will be tied to the 850-700 mb front/deformation zone which
gradually pivots E/SE through the day.
Besides the rain, the pressure gradient will be quite tight through
Saturday between the exiting mid/upper low and 1020 mb surface high
over the northern Great Lakes. This will lead to a stiff NE wind
near the lakeshore where sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up
to 35 mph are possible. Used a blend of HiRes guidance for winds
with the biggest weight on the ARW which increases winds compared to
the previous forecast. The combination of the rain, clouds, and
strong NE flow off the chilly lake water will limit highs Saturday
to the mid 50s near the lakeshore and upper 50s inland.
The surface high will finally build into the central Great Lakes
Saturday night and Sunday as the low moves offshore of the Mid
Atlantic. This will allow for drying Saturday night with dry
conditions continuing through Sunday night as the surface high
slides into the eastern Great Lakes and mid/upper ridging builds
into the Midwest and western Great Lakes. This mid/upper ridge is
the start of a pattern change in response to a broad and deep
mid/upper longwave trough digging into the western CONUS Sunday and
Sunday night. These height rises and increasing sunshine will allow
highs Sunday to modify into the low/mid 60s. Lows Saturday night and
Sunday night will still be chilly in the mid/upper 40s from the
mid/upper trough remaining over the eastern Great Lakes and
resultant N flow pattern combined with relatively light winds at
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Next week is still looking to be a very warm Spring week which
should allow most of the leaves to come out in full force! The
aforementioned mid/upper ridge will expand from the Midwest/western
Great Lakes Monday across much of the eastern CONUS Tuesday through
Thursday as numerous shortwaves reinforce the longwave trough over
the western CONUS. However, there is a wild card that has caused NBM
and other ensemble guidance to come down on high temps for the week.
That wild card is the old mid/upper closed low that will sit and
spin offshore of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas Sunday and Monday.
The deterministic ECMWF as well as some other guidance has started
retrograding this low westward across the TN Valley and deep South
Tuesday through the end of the week, undercutting the broad and
strong ridge aloft. This would bring clouds and scattered, diurnally
driven showers/storms back into the region and reduce highs into the
70s. However, the deterministic GFS and CMC does not retrograde the
low back westward until toward the end of the week which would still
support low/mid 80s. Given the uncertainty, kept the forecast dry
next week and only lowered highs slightly from the previous
forecast, but still went about 3 degrees warmer than guidance.
.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Still mainly VFR early this evening, but as steadier rain
gradually spreads in this evening into the overnight ceilings
and eventually visibilities will gradually lower at all TAF
sites. Slowed down the lowering ceilings and visibility some
from prior TAF cycle based on current conditions and upstream
trends, but still a large area of MVFR ceilings and MVFR to
locally IFR visibility in the steadier rain over IL and IN
moving east, so expect most of our sites to eventually get there
too. Brought ceilings and visibility down late evening into the
overnight with more steady/moderate rain, which continues into
early Friday. Likely a relative lull in rain and modest
improvement at a few northern locations later Friday morning
into the afternoon...VFR will be tough to attain, but could see
some areas break into MVFR for a time. MFD, CAK, and YNG will
likely stay quite socked in all day and probably will struggle
to break back above IFR, or will only do so briefly by a slim
margin. Generally poor aviating conditions will continue in
occasional rain, along with low ceilings and somewhat low
visibilities, right into Friday night.
With a somewhat dry east/northeast wind, ERI is actually the
most optimistic TAF site with this forecast for a change, and
may struggle to drop below MVFR through Friday. All other sites
are shown to drop to IFR (especially ceilings, but perhaps
visibility too in steadier / moderate rain or if any fog
develops) at some point pre-dawn Friday and stay there through
the morning, with at best modest improvement into the afternoon.
Relied a fair bit on HRRR model forecast soundings and LAMP
guidance to time the lowering of the ceilings later tonight.
Didn`t go quite as pessimistic as some guidance, but IFR is
likely for at least a time into Friday morning at all sites but
ERI, and LIFR is not ruled out, especially at TOL, CLE, MFD,
CAK, and YNG Friday morning.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely in rain and low ceilings through Friday
night. Non-VFR may persist for much of the day on Saturday.
Quiet conditions will continue on the lake through Friday morning
with light NE winds of generally 5-10 knots tonight and 10-15 knots
Friday morning, but that will change Friday afternoon through
Saturday. Low pressure slowly passing through the Ohio Valley
combined with strong high pressure over the upper Great Lakes will
lead to a strong NE wind and resultant high waves. NE winds quickly
increase to 15-25 knots Friday afternoon peaking at 25-30 knots
Friday night through Saturday morning. This will cause 5-7 foot
waves in the central and eastern basins by late Friday afternoon and
6-8 foot waves in the western basin where the fetch is the longest.
Waves will peak at 6-9 feet over most of the lake Friday night and
Saturday morning with 9-10 feet possible in the western basin.
Issued Small Craft Advisories from mid morning Friday into Saturday
night to account for all of this.
The winds and waves will cause water rises in the western basin of
Lake Erie. The current forecast is for water levels to reach about
4.3 feet above low water datum Friday night into Saturday morning at
Marblehead and about 4.7 feet at Toledo. Lower lake levels this year
compared to the previous few years is helping to prevent higher
water, but suspect there will still be localized lakeshore flooding,
so issued an SPS for lakeshore areas from Toledo to Port Clinton.
High pressure building in Saturday night will allow winds and waves
to gradually decrease Saturday evening, but NE winds of 15-20 knots
and 3-5 foot waves will continue Saturday night decreasing to 10-15
knot winds and 2-4 foot waves Sunday. Generally light E to SE winds
are then expected Sunday night through Tuesday as high pressure
strengthens across the region.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 11 PM EDT Saturday
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1011 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022
Convection has ended for now. There is still a slight chance for more
showers and thunderstorms in the far southeastern counties, but it is
unlikely. The rest of the night will be mainly clear behind the cold
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022
Some clearing from earlier along with a convective outflow boundary
moving down from the north is helping shower and thunderstorm
activity develop along the I-35 corridor from Austin northward. The
HRRR model suggests additional development will continue to slowly
develop southward and eastward into the I-35 corridor to near San
Antonio and southeastward into the coastal plains. There has been no
change to the SPC outlook, with a Slight Risk generally along and
north of a Llano to Buda to Bastrop to Round Top line. The Marginal
Risk extends southward to roughly Utopia to Pleasanton to Kenedy
line. We still have plenty of instability over the region and
certainly can`t rule out some additional severe storms through this
afternoon and early evening. The chance for severe weather should
decrease by mid to late evening as rain chances become favored for
areas generally east of the I-35 corridor. Shortly after midnight,
we should see showers and storms end across south central Texas.
Overnight lows will be coolest over portions of the Hill Country
where a weak front will help drop low temperatures down near 60
degrees. As you head farther south and west, it will be warmer, with
overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Much warmer temperatures and dry weather are in store on Friday as
highs peak in the lower 90s to near 100 along the Rio Grande, with
heat index values several degrees above the air temperature. It will
be warm and muggy Friday night, with lows in the upper 60s to mid
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022
The heat will be out in full force as we head into the weekend with
near-record to record heat expected across much of South-Central
Texas. Shortwave ridging will take over Saturday afternoon and
continue through Mother`s Day, with the mercury soaring well into
the 90s for most areas along and east of US-281, and into the 100-
106 range west of US-281. With surface dewpoints in the 60s and 70s
generally along and east of I-35, it will be downright miserable for
many, with heat indices in the 105-110 range. While the humidity
shouldn`t be quite as intense out west into the Rio Grande Plains,
Southern Edwards Plateau, and Winter Garden region, rapid mixing
should result in surface temperatures well into the triple digits
both days. Heat Advisories will likely be needed both days as this
early season heat will be our first real taste of summer-like heat
since Sep-Oct 2021. In fact, NAEFS percentiles has a good chunk of
the region in the climatological max for temperatures Saturday and
Mid-level flow should start to flatten out and turn more zonal on
Monday, before shifting to more of a southwesterly flow regime
through midweek. That should set the stage for the possibility of
convection developing over the Hill Country and Southern Edwards
Plateau, as well as over the Rio Grande Plains as SDB storms attempt
to organize and move across the border late Monday and again late
Tuesday. Temperatures will remain quite toasty, with mid to upper
90s for most, with the exception being over the Winter Garden region
and locations along the Rio Grande like Del Rio and Eagle Pass,
where highs should touch the century mark most days.
Despite beneficial rains over the last several days, the forecast
doesn`t call for much in the way of rainfall over the next week, and
coinciding with what should be our rainy season along with continued
drought conditions , we are going to miss out on needed rain chances
for much of next week. An upper level low will get cut off and
meander over the SE CONUS, creating a bit of a blocking pattern over
the eastern US. This will limit what has been a fairly progressive
pattern of "troughiness" for the south-central US the last several
weeks. Expect the heat to continue, with high temperatures more
typical of early July than early May.
Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022
A line of thunderstorms is moving through the Austin area and will
mean possible thunderstorms at AUS for the next hour or two. Any
storms will produce MVFR conditions at the airport and winds may gust
up to 30 kts. Otherwise, terminals are VFR. There is a slight chance
for thunderstorms in the San Antonio area early this evening, but it
looks like storms will dissipate before they make it that far south.
MVFR fog will develop early Friday morning at AUS and is possible in
the San Antonio area. Visibility will recover by mid-morning.
Record Highs for Saturday, May 7th and Sunday, May 8th
Austin Bergstrom.......102 in 1998 .........97 in 2011
Austin Camp Mabry......102 in 1998 .........99 in 1967
San Antonio Int........100 in 1998 ........102 in 1927
Del Rio................106 in 1998 ........103 in 1967
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 66 95 72 96 / 40 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 93 70 96 / 50 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 67 96 70 98 / 50 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 61 93 70 99 / 10 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 69 100 73 105 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 62 93 70 96 / 20 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 67 97 71 103 / 10 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 67 95 70 98 / 60 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 94 72 97 / 80 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 68 95 71 99 / 30 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 71 99 73 102 / 30 0 0 0
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
850 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...
Water vapor imagery and RAP model generally show mid to upper level
ridging over the area with a significant trough over the central
U.S. At the sfc, ridge of high pressure is located to our south
with weak sfc troughing over the Carolinas to central GA providing
for a light west to southwest flow over the local area at this time.
The airmass is a bit drier than yesterday with PWAT of 1.23 inches,
and warmer temps at 500 mb thanks to the ridging building in aloft
in the past 24 hours. The forecast remains on track, with only a
very slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this aftn as the
westerly flow meets up with an Atlantic sea breeze. This very low
rain chance is along the eastern zones today, after about 2-3 pm as
the cap will need to be overcome by aftn heating. High temps well
above normal by about 10 deg, with near record temp at our climate
sites AMG and JAX, with other records maybe a bit out of reach.
We have lower to mid 90s inland, and about 89-90 or so at the coast
due to a mid to late aftn sea breeze. Rain chances should quickly
diminish in the evening hours.
Current climate records today:
JAX 94 (1898)
CRG 96 (2021)
GNV 97 (1902)
SSI 93 (1952)
AMG 94 (2012)
Offshore flow will turn to the southeast today at 10-15 kt and seas
generally remain around the 1-3 ft range. Little change needed in
Rip currents/beaches: Surf looks to be 1-2 ft with a low end
moderate risk due to the weak swell component and the aftn onshore
flow. May dominant period about 7 seconds with low swell height less
than 1 foot at 14 seconds. The risk may trend a bit lower on Friday.
.PREV DISCUSSION [730 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
An upper level ridge across the southwest Gulf of Mexico will
build across the area today ahead of an upper level low moving
across the southern Plains. This will lead to significant
subsidence aloft this afternoon, and only very low rain chances
late this afternoon and early evening. Northwesterly upper level
flow will prevail today, with flow becoming more zonal tonight as
the upper level low moves closer. At the surface, weak high
pressure will remain south southeast of Bermuda, and an overall
light westerly flow will prevail across the area. Sea breeze
boundaries will move inland this afternoon and an isolated shower
or storm cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, it will be hot today
with near record high temperatures. Highs will be in the low to
mid 90s, except slightly cooler at the beaches.
A cold front will move into the Tennessee Valley overnight, but
besides a slight increase in cirrus clouds, quiet conditions will
continue. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s across
the interior and around 70 at the beaches.
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...
On Friday, ridging over the region shifts southward as mid-upper
troughing moves eastward into the Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile,
its associated surface low pushes a cold front through the
southeast US with the front weakening as it moves toward the area.
Breezy southwesterly winds develop ahead of the approaching front
on Friday with frequent gusts up to 25 mph possible. Pre-frontal
showers and storms begin to move into inland SE GA late Friday
afternoon into early evening. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms spread across SE GA and NE FL Friday night into Saturday as
the front slows down as it enters inland SE GA and Suwannee
Valley. Breezy westerly winds develop shortly after sunrise. Flow
aloft shifts to west-northwesterly as the trough moves into the
mid-Atlantic region advecting cooler, drier air into SE GA
Saturday afternoon into night. Cooling mid-level temperatures
could result in a few strong thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Rain ends from northwest to
southeast Saturday night. Above normal temperatures continue on
Friday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Temperatures decrease on Saturday due to
cloud cover and cool, dry air moving into SE GA with highs in the
80s and lows in the low 60s to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...
A stacked low develops and strengthens off the North Carolina
coast as its associated cold front over north-central FL shifts
southward down the peninsula. The low will then linger in the
Atlantic off the North Carolina coast through mid week. Meanwhile,
an upper ridge axis will build from the western Gulf to the Lower
Great Lakes. This setup will tighten the gradient over the region
with northerly flow aloft continuing to usher in cooler, drier
air into the area through mid-week. Temperatures will return to
around normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to
[Through 12Z Friday]
VFR expected to prevail through this period with generally lower
moisture values available today than yesterday. Thus, for now,
any rain chances for the TAFs expected to be too low to include
in the TAFs at this time. By early aftn, may need a brief period
of VCSH or VCTS for one of the TAFs though. A west to southwest
flow at 5-10 kt expected this morning, with a wind shift to
southeast to south wind at the coastal TAFs due to the afternoon
sea breeze. Winds will decrease tonight and shift to southwest
An area of low pressure over the southern Plains states will
progress slowly eastward across the Missouri and Ohio Valleys
today and Friday. A cold front will then move across the
Southeast Friday night, approaching the Georgia waters by
Saturday morning. South to southwesterly winds will strengthen
over our local waters late tonight with Caution conditions
expected Friday night. The front will move slowly across our
local waters this weekend as low pressure pushes offshore of the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the frontal passage this weekend. Weak low pressure will
then meander off the Carolina coast early next week as strong
high pressure builds over the Canadian Maritime Region, bringing
an increase in northeasterly winds and building seas for much of
Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at the beaches today
and low risk of rip currents on Friday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 93 66 90 66 85 / 10 10 40 30 30
SSI 89 71 90 71 86 / 10 10 10 30 30
JAX 93 68 92 70 88 / 20 20 10 30 40
SGJ 91 69 91 71 88 / 10 10 10 30 40
GNV 93 66 90 69 88 / 10 10 10 40 50
OCF 93 67 90 70 86 / 10 10 10 50 50
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
653 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022
Synopsis: A deep mid/upper level low is expected to spin eastward
from Colorado and into the Ozarks by Friday morning. At the sfc, an
eastward extending warm front attached to the sfc low will lift
northward today, and should be cutting through the Commonwealth by
this afternoon and evening. An attendant sfc cold front will trail
from the sfc low and southward into Texas.
Overview: Marginal risk for severe weather today, with the greatest
threat confined to areas south of the warm front this afternoon and
early evening. The area with the greatest potential for severe
storms is in south-central KY, specifically counties along and south
of I-165 (Natcher Pkwy) and the Cumberland Pkwy (Warren, Allen,
Butler, Barren, Logan, Edmonson, Simpson vicinity). Max temperatures
for today will range drastically depending on how far north the warm
front pushes this afternoon during peak heating. Currently expect
forecast highs for counties along and south of the Kentucky Parkways
to reach the upper 70s and low 80s. Areas north of the Parkways are
forecast to reach the upper 60s to low to mid 70s.
Discussion: First half of the short term period will actually start
off quiet. Weak upper ridging will be departing off the east along
with the northern sfc high, resulting in our sfc winds to turn from
easterly this morning to southerly by this afternoon. As the warm
front lifts north, it will bring a warm and rather moist airmass
with it into our region. Dewpoints will rise in the low to mid 60s,
though some ensemble members do not rule out the possibility of
seeing some sfc obs with dewpoints in the upper 60s south of the
warm front. SPC drew the Marginal risk mainly on where dewpoints
will be 60 or greater.
The 00z HREF ensemble mean paints 1000-1500 J/kg of sfc based CAPE
across the south-central KY counties mainly between 19z-23z today.
Models seem to be in fairly good agreement that we will be able to
get some decent instability this afternoon south of the warm front
where temps and dewpoints will be the highest. However, model
soundings show rather weak low level wind fields, with 0-1km shear
values mainly below 20kts. With the lowest 1km winds potentially
more westerly this afternoon, that will greatly inhibit a veering
profile and knock down our SRH values. Though overall effective bulk
shear is marginal with roughly 30kts possible, any cluster of
convection that can develop will likely be messy and somewhat
unorganized. Additionally, rather high wet bulb zero heights limit
large hail potential given the deep low level warm layer that should
allow for rapid melting should any hailstones fall out of updrafts.
Overall threat appears marginal based off of current data, though
it`ll be important to keep eyes on the trends in the CAMs with
North of the warm front, we can still expect to have some
thunderstorms, though should be elevated in nature and much weaker.
The warm front should be roughly along and parallel to the Ohio
River by 00z this evening. We expect to get another cluster of
convection moving northeast from western Tennessee into central
Kentucky late tonight and into early Friday morning within the warm
sector. However, the loss of daytime heating will result in rather
limited instability for these storms to work with. Should have some
rumbles of thunder overnight as the cluster passes through, though
not expecting any severe weather with this late night round. Warm
sectoring will help keep temps mild overnight, with forecast low
temps in the low 60s across the region.
.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022
...RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY...
The last in a parade of systems from the Pacific is forecast to
slowly track through the region on Friday and Saturday. This feature
will bring rather unsettled weather to the region on Friday with
remnant showers and low cloudiness expected for Saturday. Moving
into the new week, large scale troughing will be found on both
coasts of the CONUS. In between, large scale mid-level ridging will
be found from the western Gulf northeastward through the Ohio
Valley. This pattern will feature dry and increasingly milder
conditions across the Ohio Valley with temperatures averaging above
normal next week.
Meteorological Discussion and
Sensible Weather Impacts
For Friday, a closed upper level low is forecast to start the day
off in southern MO with a surface low right underneath. Throughout
the day this feature will translate eastward and occlude thorugh
southern/central IN. It is possible that a secondary low may
develop across western KY and then shift eastward through the state
during the daytime hours. Surface frontal boundary will push
eastward in tandem with the advancing low and widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected to impact the region. There is still a
bit of uncertainty on the convective evolution for Friday.
Instability will largely be determined by how overnight and early
morning convection evolves. Model solutions still have substantial
differences with the high res NAM solutions being a bit more
aggressive than the HRRR and RUC solutions. Pocket of colder air
aloft will move over the region and that will steepen the lapse
rates across the region during the late morning and early afternoon.
Model proximity soundings show this quite well and the overall
thermodynamic and kinematic profiles would suggest multi-cellular
convection with lines/bowing segments. Given the cooler mid-level
temps, marginally severe hail would be possible in the strongest
cores along with a threat of damaging winds. Highest probability of
strong/severe storms is likely in areas east of the I-65 corridor,
but may be confined to areas to areas along and east of I-75. Highs
on the day will likely top out in the lower 70s. By Friday night,
the surface and upper level low will move east, but remnant low
cloudiness and rain showers are likely to persist over much of the
region as temperatures fall into the lower-mid 50s.
For Saturday, closed/stacked surface/upper level low system will be
just east of the region. However, cool northwest flow with
plentiful moisture in place will keep conditions cloudy throughout
the day. Scattered rain showers are likely in the morning, but this
activity is likely to pull out of the region by early-mid afternoon
with some partial clearing arriving in the western sections of the
forecast area by evening. Temperatures will be held down due to the
clouds and highs will range from the mid 60s to the upper 60s. Lows
Saturday night will cool into the lower 50s.
Moving into Sunday, the upper level low is expected to move on off
to the east while high pressure builds in at the surface and mid-
level heights begin to quickly rise across the region. In general,
partly to mostly sunny skies are expected for Mother`s Day with
highs topping out in the mid-upper 70s. Lows Sunday night will dip
back into the mid-upper 50s.
For the Monday-Wednesday period, the upper level pattern here will
feature troughs on both US coasts with an upper level ridge oriented
in a SW-NE direction from the western Gulf into the Ohio Valley.
This ridge is expected to hold sway across the region as upper level
blocking develops over the NE US. With dry conditions expected,
temperatures will moderate through the period. Highs on Monday
should warm into the low-mid 80s. Highs should warm a little more
on Tuesday/Wednesday with highs warming into the mid-upper 80s. Hard
to say if we`ll hit the 90s by mid-week given the recent rains, wet
ground, and generally lush vegetative conditions. However, with
higher sun angles and mostly sunny days, we could dry things out a
bit quicker than expected. Overall, the best chances of
temperatures hitting 90 would be in areas west of the I-65 corridor.
Lows through the period will generally be in the low-mid 60s.
Forecast confidence for Friday and Saturday is high on widespread
precipitation and thunderstorms. Confidence on the severe weather
risk for Friday remains low at this time. Forecast confidence for
Sunday-Wednesday is medium to high.
.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022
Expect VFR flight cats for this morning, but as a warm front lifts
northward into the region, we will see showers and storms at all
terminals this afternoon and evening. Strongest storms are expected
in the BWG area late afternoon and early evening, which could
temporarily result in reduced flight cats. Otherwise, should see
ceilings drop back down to MVFR towards the end of the TAF period,
especially at HNB, as the attendant cold front slowly approaches
from the west by tomorrow morning.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
932 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022
Weak high pressure will shift away from the area tonight. Low
pressure will track into the Ohio Valley on Friday as a warm front
sits to our south. The low pressure will redevelop near the mid-
Atlantic coast Friday night into Saturday, becoming a slow moving
coastal storm which will affect the area for much of the weekend.
Building high pressure to the north will slowly push the coastal
storm southward during the early to middle portion of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast remains on track. Will bump up "Patchy Fog" to "Areas
of Fog" across southeast New Jersey and most of Delmarva. With a
light onshore flow and increasing dew points, NARRE and HRRR
showing potential for fog development over the ocean and
Otherwise, clouds will otherwise spread in from the west as low
pressure approaches. Some rain may move into far western zones
prior to daybreak. Latest KDIX radar showing some light returns
moving through eastern Pennsylvania, but dew point depressions
are still upwards of 10 to 15 degrees, and surface obs upstream
not currently indicating precip.
Lows will be mostly in the 50s for the area. Winds will be
light and variable.
Friday, low pressure will begin to approach from the Tennessee
Valley and an associated warm front will be ahead of the system.
A shield of steady rains will develop ahead of the front and
move west to east across the Middle Atlantic during the morning.
Pops climb quickly to categorical by afternoon. The clouds and
rain along with the onshore flow will create a raw spring feel
as temperatures will only rise a few degrees from the overnight
lows. Winds will be E to SE at 10 to 15 mph much of the day.
Total rainfall thru sunset Friday will range from a couple
tenths of an inch across srn DE to three-quarters of an inch for
NW areas. Just the beginning of a rainy period for the region.
One exception will be across srn DE where the front will
meander thru during the afternoon and some warmer/unstable air
will arrive. Highs across srn DE will probably top out in the
mid 60s. These areas may also have some sct convection so
thunder in the fcst was left as is. The SPC has some adjacent
areas in a Marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong, slow moving coastal storm will affect the region for most
of the weekend. Widespread rain will be ongoing early Friday night
as a warm front sits south of our region. Primary low pressure over
the Ohio Valley will weaken Friday night as a secondary low develops
just off the Delmarva coast in response to an approaching upper
level trough and strong low level frontogenetic forcing. That
secondary low will continue to develop off the coast and sit with
little movement Saturday into Sunday, before strong high pressure to
the north begins slowly forcing it south. The low will also start to
become vertically stacked during this time as the upper level trough
closes off and moves over the surface low. This will cause the
surface low to start slowly weakening, but thanks to strong high
pressure to the north, the pressure gradient will remain very
strong, reinforcing the onshore flow.
This is quite an anomalous system for the season, a true Nor`easter
with multiple days of rain and battering wind likely especially at
the coast. The steadiest rain is expected from Friday night through
Saturday, but periods of rain and showers are likely to continue
into Sunday. We`ll first deal with the initial thump of overrunning
precipitation, which will be what starts during the daytime on
Friday. As the coastal low spins up, we`ll then see areas of banded
frontogenetic precipitation on its northwest flank which will
continue to bring areas of rain through Sunday. With time on Sunday,
as the low slowly shifts further south, northern portions of the
area may dry out, while showers likely continue to the south and
Temperatures will also be a story this weekend. The combination of
rain, a thick cloud deck, and strong onshore winds will lead to much
below normal temperatures both Saturday and Sunday. Highs mostly in
the low to mid 50s are expected, and a lot of time will be spent in
the 40s. Combined with the wind and rain, the weekend looks
downright ugly overall.
Outside of the general unpleasantness, there are a couple of
specific hazards to watch. In terms of rainfall, this is not looking
like a flash flooding situation due to the long duration of the
event. The latest projections are a storm total of around 1.75 to
2.5 inches of rain across the area. This should generally preclude
any significant issues. However, some guidance suggests more like 2
to 4 inches for a storm total, and if we start to get into those
higher numbers, larger river rises and potentially flooding would
become possible. We`ll need to watch that closely as if anything it
seems more likely our QPF will trend up as opposed to down.
We will also be watching the winds. Guidance suggests a potent east-
northeasterly LLJ developing by Saturday afternoon, with a strong
consensus for winds of 50 to 55 kt at 925 mb. Looking at BUFKIT
profiles and considering this flow regime, Wind Advisory conditions
with gusts up to 50 mph appear probable along the coast, possibly
into the coastal plain. Further inland, we will be sub-advisory, but
certainly still breezy with gusts of 30 to 35 mph, especially from
Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. There are also marine and
coastal concerns with this storm, but they are detailed in
additional sections below. All in all, likely to be an active
weekend of weather.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A stagnant upper level pattern, in the form of a Rex block, will
develop over eastern North America and the western Atlantic next
week. In an unusual evolution, the coastal storm from over the
weekend will slowly be forced south and east of the region as strong
high pressure builds in to the north. The forecast details next week
will largely depend on exactly how far south the coastal low and
associated closed upper level low make it. Overall, the trend into
next week should be for warmer and drier conditions, but with a
couple of caveats. First, prolonged onshore flow is likely to
continue, which will keep the coast cooler. Second, the position of
the low will still have to be monitored. If it ends up a little
closer, and/or helps to direct a couple of weak shortwave
disturbances over the area, there could be a shower threat into next
week also. But think from Monday and especially Tuesday onward,
mainly dry conditions will prevail, along with the warming trend and
slowly decreasing winds.
Sunday night-Monday night... We`ll start to see some improvement by
the beginning of the new week, but it will be gradual. Continued
shower activity is possible Sunday night, but should become less
prevalent with time and will more and more favor the further
southeast portions of the area. A chilly night with lows well down
into the 40s. On Monday, the low continues to inch its way further
south. Its position will determine the details for Monday, but
currently think Monday will be a mostly dry day. Still a lingering
shower risk especially in the eastern portion of the area, but
probably more spotty in nature than prior days with more sunshine as
well especially inland. Monday will also start our warming trend,
but like everything else with getting rid of this system, it will be
slow and gradual. Most places should at least return to the low 60s.
An exception will be eastern portions of the area, where more cloud
cover and continued northeast winds will keep conditions cooler.
Another chilly, but mainly dry, overnight is expected Monday night
with temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s.
Tuesday-Thursday... A warming trend is expected as high pressure
continues to force the coastal low southward and the upper level
pattern takes on a true Rex block configuration. By Tuesday, many
areas will return to the mid 60s, and we may see some 70 degree
readings by Wednesday or at least near 70. By Thursday, more
widespread 70s are likely. However, onshore flow will continue, and
while it will gradually weaken, it will remain fairly breezy
especially near the coast. This will continue to keep coastal areas
significantly cooler. With the low pushing further south, forcing
should be much weaker over our area by this time. Cannot entirely
rule out some spotty showers on these days especially in eastern
areas, but expecting dry conditions by and large.
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight (00Z through 12Z)...Overall VFR. However, IFR CIGs/VSBYs
in fog/low clouds look to spread into KACY/KMIV after 08Z.
LGT/VRB winds. Moderate confidence.
Friday...Conditions lower to MVFR in the morning, and then to
IFR in the afternoon in rain/fog. E winds 5 to 10 kt. High
Friday night-Saturday night... Predominantly IFR conditions with
rain and low clouds. Some improvement is possible from north to
south by Saturday night. Strong northeast winds are expected
throughout this period especially towards the coast. Winds will
generally run 15 to 20 kt with gusts of 30 to 35 kt, stronger at the
coast and a little weaker to the north and west. Moderate confidence.
Sunday-Sunday night... A continued improvement in conditions, albeit
slow, is possible. Northern portions of the area may trend more
VFR/MVFR, while southern areas continue to deal with MVFR/IFR.
Northeast winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt, stronger at the
coast, weaker inland, and decreasing by Sunday night. Low confidence.
Monday-Tuesday... Mainly VFR with localized restrictions possible
mainly southeast of PHL. Northeast wind 10 to 15 kt with some higher
gusts especially near the coast. Moderate confidence.
Sub-SCA conditions tonight and much of Friday as high pressure
over the waters (tonight) moves away. This evening, some SE
winds up Delaware Bay may approach 15 to 20 kts and there will
be locally choppy seas. Tomorrow, onshore winds and seas
increase thru the day but hold short of SCA thru 6PM. Rain
developing Friday morning. Areas of fog developing.
Friday night-Monday... A prolonged period of hazardous marine
weather conditions is expected. Strong northeast winds are expected.
Winds will steadily ramp up to gale force on Friday night. Gale
force winds will then continue through Sunday and likely through
Sunday night. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 kt with gusts of 40 to 45
kt are likely. A period of storm force conditions is possible
especially Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Seas will
quickly build to 4 to 8 ft Friday night, then generally run 10 to 15
ft through Monday. Periods of rain, heavy at times.
Monday-Tuesday... SCA conditions will continue at least on the
Atlantic coastal waters due to elevated seas and breezy northeast
winds. Winds will likely remain strong enough for SCA conditions on
Delaware Bay also. However, conditions will slowly be starting to
subside during this time with additional improvement likely into
A prolonged period of onshore flow will begin on Friday, and looks
to continue for about a week. High pressure will be anchored too the
north, and slow moving low pressure will pass to the south.
The strongest of the onshore flow will occur over the weekend. The
first threat of coastal flooding will occur with the high tide
Saturday night, with widespread minor and locally moderate coastal
flooding during that time. Additional rounds of tidal flooding will
affect the area into the early part of the new week.
Beach erosion is also a concern with the prolonged onshore flow.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for
Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for
Tides/Coastal Flooding...WFO PHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
620 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022
Cold front advancing across the South Plains early this morning,
south of Lubbock and moving south fairly quickly. A few showers and
storms trying to develop along and just north of the boundary. Just
south of the front, IR imagery is showing an area of mid level
instability developing from near Fort Stockton northeast to Snyder.
As the lift from the front reaches the area of mid level
instability, showers and storms may become a little more
widespread at least briefly, before the front undercuts the mid
level instability and moves even farther into West Central Texas.
How widespread is still the million dollar question, with even the
high-res CAMs struggling with their solutions. Latest HRRR keeps
convection very limited until well after sunrise as the front
reaches into the Heartland and Hill Country, a solution that is
starting to be backed up by some of the other models. Have trimmed
back POPs just a little around San Angelo and Abilene, while
boosting POPs a little farther east around Mason and Brady.
Otherwise temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s today even
behind the front, with considerably more sunshine than what we saw on
Wednesday. Drier air mass tonight will allow temperatures to drop
into the 50s.
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022
...Triple digit heat expected from Saturday through Monday. More
active pattern forecast for next week with dryline thunderstorms
As the upper trough exits to the east, upper level ridging will set
up for the early portion of the weekend. This will keep conditions
dry and allow for the heat to soar. Friday will see highs climb into
the mid and upper 90s for much of the area with the warmest
temperatures to the south and west. Not only will we see west to
southwest winds bringing some downslope heating but the 850 mb
thermal ridge will begin to slide into the western portions of
our area. 850 mb temps by Friday will already be in the 26-28 deg
C range. However, in comparison to Saturday through Monday, Friday
is just the precursor. Clear to mostly clear skies will allow for
peak to near peak insolation each day. Lee cyclogenesis in
Colorado on Saturday will help to tighten the pressure gradient
across the area meaning winds will be breezy out of the southwest,
which will only ramp up the warm air advection into the area. By
Saturday, the 850 mb thermal ridge axis will be positioned well
over West Central Texas with 850 mb temps in the 28-31 deg C
range. All of this will translate into daytime highs in the low to
mid 100s areawide for Saturday. This pattern will continue
through Sunday as well as Monday to a slightly lesser degree. High
temperatures these days will reach into the upper 90s to low and
possibly even mid 100s. This will increase fire weather concerns
each day, Saturday through Monday, as the rise in temperatures
will cause RH values to tank well below 20% each day. And with
gusty winds, currently forecasted to border on red flag criteria,
it is something we will be watching closely.
One stipulation to the dry and hot forecast for Monday is that we
will start to see the edge of a broad upper level trough axis move
into the West Central Texas area late Sunday into Monday. With a
slight increase in synoptic lift and gulf moisture starting to work
its way back into at least southern and eastern portions of the
area, mid range models are hinting at some shower and storm activity
off of a dryline late Monday. This pattern is expected to
potentially increase in intensity by Tuesday as winds shift to a
more south/southeasterly direction, allowing for more gulf moisture
to spread further north and west. Not only this but an upper low in
the Intermountain West will open up and start to eject eastward
through mid next week to further increase potential lift. There
is still obviously a lot of uncertainty this far out but for now
we will keep PoPs at or just below slight chance for the
possibility of afternoon and evening thunderstorms most days next
Issued at 543 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022
A few showers and storms have developed west of KABI as a cold
front sweeps south into the area. A stray shower will be possible
at KABI and KSJT through mid morning or so, but better chance for
storms will be across the southern and eastern terminals later
this morning. Winds will shift to the north and northwest behind
the front. MVFR and some IFR cigs have developed across most of
the area both ahead of and behind the front. These should continue
through much of the morning, but drier air working its way into
the area will lead to decreasing clouds and VFR conditions for the
afternoon and through tonight.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 83 55 95 64 / 30 0 0 0
San Angelo 87 57 98 67 / 20 0 0 0
Junction 87 57 96 67 / 50 0 0 0
Brownwood 83 54 95 64 / 70 0 0 0
Sweetwater 83 57 96 64 / 20 0 0 0
Ozona 87 58 96 65 / 20 0 0 0
Brady 84 58 95 67 / 80 0 0 0