Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/06/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 .AVIATION...12z TAFs... IFR to MVFR conditions are expected at KAMA and KGUY to start the TAF period. Low clouds are continuing to linger across the central and eastern Panhandles this morning and should last for at least a few more hours. After 14-16z, all sites should be VFR for the rest of this TAF cycle. Winds will increase this morning to 15-20 kts with higher gusts. Winds will diminish after sunset and will be light overnight. Muscha && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022/ SHORT TERM...Today through tomorrow night... Quiet weather is expected across the forecast area during the short term. A cooler day is anticipated across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle with cloud cover remaining across the area through mid morning. The beginning of Summer like weather will begin on Friday, with temperatures warming into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Current H500 RAP analysis has an upper level low pressure system situated over southeastern Colorado early this morning. The main axis of the trough is currently just to the west of the CWA in central/eastern New Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms are continuing this morning to the south and east of the area. A few showers or storms may form in the northeastern Panhandles with outflow boundaries from previous convection still lingering across the area. The aforementioned H500 low will propagate east during the day and is expected to remain just to the north of the Panhandles. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue down to the surface today. These winds will keep a cooler airmass over the Panhandles for a majority of the day. Low level and surface temperatures will warm into the 60s and 70s today, which will be just below normal for early May in the Panhandles. The beginning of the warm up will commence on Friday, when an upper level ridge begins to build across the central CONUS. Underneath this ridge, strong WAA will be present across the Desert Southwest and will begin to extend across the Southern High Plains. With H850 temperatures approaching 25 to nearly 30 C in the western zones, temperatures will warm up into the mid 80s to low 90s, which is well above average for early May. For reference, the average high temperatures across the Panhandles this time of year is around 76 to 77 degrees. With high pressure situated to the east of the CWA, mainly clear skies with light winds (for Panhandle standards) are expected tomorrow. Muscha LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday)... Overview: Overall, the main hazard in the long term will be the hot temperatures this weekend as some areas reach triple digits for highs. This will especially be true for the Canyon where we may need heat a advisory. These early season heat waves are concerning for Palo Duro Canyon goers that don`t realize how hot in can be in the Canyon compared to Amarillo. Otherwise, with those warm temperatures we will also be looking at the threat for fire weather this weekend and into early next week, but we have a few concerns that may limit these chances to some degree. Lastly, we do have a chance for showers and thunderstorms by middle of next week, but confidence is low at this time for exact coverage and timing in addition to overall chances. Further Details: Starting Saturday, an area of H5 high pressure over the equator will shift northward over Mexico through the weekend into Texas and other southern CONUS states by next week. This will help block a large area of cyclonic flow aloft as a longwave trough develops over the western CONUS, and puts the Panhandles in southwesterly flow for several days. Several warm days will be in store under this pattern with lots of sunshine through the weekend. It shouldn`t come as a surprise if heat advisories are issued this weekend for the Canyon into perhaps early next week. As of now, Saturday looks like the best bet for that to occur given the trends and current forecast temperature around 105 in the Canyon. In addition to the heat, our afternoon RH values will drop down into single digits this weekend, especially areas out west. Those areas that haven`t received rainfall should be on the look out for Red Flag Warnings as the fire threat comes back into play. The threat at least does appear marginal given the lower end wind speeds. Forecast soundings show good mixing with low level lapse rates, but the flow aloft is weak. Nevertheless, a Red Flag Warning may be needed this weekend into early next week, mainly for the western zones along and near the New Mexico border where RFTI values may be around 5-6 (spotty 7). Wind speeds may be the limiting factor around 15-25 mph with perhaps an hour or two around 30 mph sustained. Lastly, this broad area of cyclonic may introduce some embedded shortwaves within the southwesterly flow. This could bring a round or two of rainfall to the forecast area by the middle to end of next week. As of now, the overall synoptic pattern is weak. That said, we do have a good moisture source from the Pacific, so severe weather cannot be completely ruled out, but these storms will likely be high based. Still a lot of forecasting left to figure all that out, but for now we will carry 20% PoPs in this forecast for Tuesday afternoon/evening as well as Wednesday afternoon/evening. Guerrero && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 5/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
946 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 946 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 Tweaked near term sky cover a bit with this update as low stratus across the south central and southern James River Valley is holding on longer than initially thought. It is possible low stratus could linger over at least a portion of this area through the night before expanding in coverage early tomorrow morning. UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 With this update we slightly expanded the patchy fog mention for overnight into tomorrow morning south and east more into the James River Valley based on the area that near term guidance is pinpointing. Otherwise, no major changes are needed. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 Stratus/fog highlights the short term forecast period. Currently, a pretty expansive area of stratocumulus clouds extends from the far south central into eastern North Dakota. Elsewhere, skies were clear within an area of upper level ridging over a southern stream upper low and ahead of an approaching strong upper trough in the eastern Pacific. Tonight, the The upper ridge over our area drops south and east behind the southern stream low, but northern stream ridging will remain as the eastern Pacific system lifts into the Northern U.S. and southern British Columbia Rockies. This will keep the forecast area dry tonight, but with increasing southerly flow ahead of cyclogenesis in the lee of the Canadian and Northern Rockies, it looks like we will see another surge in low level moisture into the forecast area late tonight into Friday morning. At this time it looks like stratus could set up along and east of the Highway 83 corridor by Friday morning. We could see some patchy fog as well but with the increasing winds and high clouds, stratus seems to be the better option. Currently the HRRR and RAP are both indicating an area of stratus lifting into the forecast area after 06 UTC. There are some indications of fog along the western periphery so we might add some patchy fog along/east of the Missouri River Valley. Overnight lows tonight will be mainly in the 40s. On Friday, an impulse rotating around the British Columbia upper low will push a warm front through the state. There could be some scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm along the warm front but instability will be weak with only marginal bulk shear. Friday will be breezy to windy with southerly winds ahead of the frontal boundary. The low stratus and increasing mid and high clouds associated with the impulse skirting the northwest CWA will keep temperatures about the same or a little cooler than today. Highs will generally be in the mid 60s east to the mid 70s west. We do see winds shift more westerly in western ND Friday afternoon with drier air also working its way into the western forecast area. This will bring afternoon dewpoints down into the upper teens and lower 20s over the far west, and with sustained winds around 20 mph, we could see some fire weather concerns for the first time in a while. At this time it looks like the timeframe would be late afternoon and would not occur long enough to warrant Fire weather highlights. SPC is advertising elevated fire weather concerns over northcentral and into northeast Montana Friday afternoon, but conditions here would occur over a longer duration. Certainly some thing to monitor overnight. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 An active pattern is expected through the long term period with hit and miss shower and thunderstorms chances almost daily. As the Canadian upper low sits and spins over British Columbia, another wave moves onto the western U.S. Coast and tracks into the Northern Rockies by Saturday morning. The wave then propagates into eastern Montana by around 00 UTC Sunday. This will result in increasing instability Saturday afternoon over central North Dakota. Cape values of around 500-1500 j/kg are expected with bulk shear ranging from around 35 to 50 kts. SPC depicts a marginal risk of severe weather over central SD into NE. We are still quite a ways out, but if we can reach the level of moisture return depicted by the RAP, and given the amount of bulk shear and 0-3km helicity, a few strong to severe storms could be possible. Beyond Saturday we well remain in a favorable upper level pattern for near daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. At this time it looks like possibly the Sunday night-Monday timeframe and then the very end and/or beyond the long term period (Thursday-Friday) being favorable for better precipitation chances as these timeframe feature a stronger wave tracking through the forecast area. In between, there are hints at some upper level ridging over the northern plains, but we remain within a broad southwest upper flow so even during the middle of the upcoming work week we could still see a passing shower or thunderstorm. Temperatures through the period remain seasonable with highs in the 60s and lower 70s and overnight lows mostly in the 40s and lower 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 946 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 For the most part, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Low, but still VFR level stratus, is holding on longer than anticipated at KJMS and could continue through the overnight hours. Otherwise, overnight into the morning, patchy fog may develop from KBIS to KJMS, though confidence is too low for any mention in the TAFs other than a lowering ceiling. Increased cloud cover and lowering ceilings are expected across all terminals tomorrow morning, with MVFR ceilings expected at KJMS. Some light rain showers may accompany this cloud cover, but confidence in this is also currently low. Winds will remain out of the south- southeast with a light breeze across all terminals through at least 12Z, with winds then beginning to shift out of the west at KDIK and KXWA through the remainder of the morning, and possibly KMOT and KBIS by the end of the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Gale SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...Gale
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
805 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system passing west to east to our south will bring widespread off and on rain tonight through Saturday. That low pressure system sill stall off the mid Atlantic coast while high pressure builds. The area will be caught between that system and a ridge aloft that will set up just to the west, which will try to bring warmer air to the region through the middle of next week in a drier overall pattern. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Update: Freshened hourly POPs through tonight based on current conditions and upstream trends...sped up the arrival of rain a bit, and hit most of the area with 100% POPs to reflect the inevitability of rain tonight...only area a bit uncertain is towards Northwest PA, but even there a bit of rain is a decent likelihood. Other small item we`ll look into the remainder of this evening is flood potential over the coming days, especially in our southern counties where a solid 1.50-2.00" of rain is forecast through Saturday morning. It helps that the heavier hits of that rain...later tonight/early Friday, and then again Friday night, will be somewhat spread out. Previous Discussion: Upcoming wet and dreary weather CWA-wide. Mid Mississippi Valley low pressure system will work its way up the Ohio Valley, and will bring periodic rain to the entire CWA for the near term portion of the forecast. High level clouds already moving in from the WSW, and will continue to thicken and lower tonight as the system gets closer. Radar echoes appearing in the southwestern zones, but likely not reaching the ground at this time. POPs enter the picture around 20Z or so in light rain with isentropic lift at the 300K surface. This forcing of this rain will ultimately transition to mid level frontogenesis that will gradually strengthen in waves over the CWA from tonight through Friday. The pattern of the POP grids are largely tailored towards this evolution. Meanwhile, the occluding frontal system will largely stay to the south of the CWA. SPC keeps the area in general thunder, and think the only real thunder potential will be across the far southern zones. The mid level lapse rates have a sharp gradient that is largely oriented west to east along the CWA boundary keeping the 5C/km plus values along that southern tier of counties and south. North of that line, much lower/stable conditions in the mid levels will largely keep it rain with embedded showers of heavier rainfall rates. Being north of the system also keeps the maximum low level moisture flux south of the area as well. In then end, looking at an inch to an inch and a half of rain through the period. Probably going to reach action stage at some of the more susceptible gage sites across the CWA, and minor flooding in isolated pockets is not out of the question, especially over the southern zones where convective activity is not completely out of the question as mentioned earlier. Winds will increase out of the northeast in a strengthening pressure gradient as the low pressure system passes to the south. Temperatures a few degrees below normal for the most part. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A cool, raw, and rainy Saturday is unfortunately a guarantee due to the mid/upper closed low slowly rotating from the Ohio Valley Saturday morning to the Mid Atlantic coast by Saturday night. Forcing remains strong Saturday morning as persistent upper diffluence to the north of the low induces a 30 knot easterly low- level jet. This low-level jet actually advects some Atlantic moisture back into the Ohio Valley which wraps into a mid-level deformation zone as the low pulls east. This will lead to bands of widespread rain through midday, with the greatest coverage east of I- 71. Kept thunder out of the forecast since the widespread rain and showers will prevent much if any instability, but a few rumbles cannot be entirely ruled out along the US 30 corridor closer to the surface front. As the low pulls toward the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday afternoon and evening, surface high pressure over the northern Great Lakes will begin to advect drier air into the region, so showers will gradually decrease from NW to SE. Additional rainfall on Saturday will range from 0.10 to 0.25 inches east of I- 71, with lesser amounts farther west since the most persistent band of rain will be tied to the 850-700 mb front/deformation zone which gradually pivots E/SE through the day. Besides the rain, the pressure gradient will be quite tight through Saturday between the exiting mid/upper low and 1020 mb surface high over the northern Great Lakes. This will lead to a stiff NE wind near the lakeshore where sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are possible. Used a blend of HiRes guidance for winds with the biggest weight on the ARW which increases winds compared to the previous forecast. The combination of the rain, clouds, and strong NE flow off the chilly lake water will limit highs Saturday to the mid 50s near the lakeshore and upper 50s inland. The surface high will finally build into the central Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday as the low moves offshore of the Mid Atlantic. This will allow for drying Saturday night with dry conditions continuing through Sunday night as the surface high slides into the eastern Great Lakes and mid/upper ridging builds into the Midwest and western Great Lakes. This mid/upper ridge is the start of a pattern change in response to a broad and deep mid/upper longwave trough digging into the western CONUS Sunday and Sunday night. These height rises and increasing sunshine will allow highs Sunday to modify into the low/mid 60s. Lows Saturday night and Sunday night will still be chilly in the mid/upper 40s from the mid/upper trough remaining over the eastern Great Lakes and resultant N flow pattern combined with relatively light winds at night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Next week is still looking to be a very warm Spring week which should allow most of the leaves to come out in full force! The aforementioned mid/upper ridge will expand from the Midwest/western Great Lakes Monday across much of the eastern CONUS Tuesday through Thursday as numerous shortwaves reinforce the longwave trough over the western CONUS. However, there is a wild card that has caused NBM and other ensemble guidance to come down on high temps for the week. That wild card is the old mid/upper closed low that will sit and spin offshore of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas Sunday and Monday. The deterministic ECMWF as well as some other guidance has started retrograding this low westward across the TN Valley and deep South Tuesday through the end of the week, undercutting the broad and strong ridge aloft. This would bring clouds and scattered, diurnally driven showers/storms back into the region and reduce highs into the 70s. However, the deterministic GFS and CMC does not retrograde the low back westward until toward the end of the week which would still support low/mid 80s. Given the uncertainty, kept the forecast dry next week and only lowered highs slightly from the previous forecast, but still went about 3 degrees warmer than guidance. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Still mainly VFR early this evening, but as steadier rain gradually spreads in this evening into the overnight ceilings and eventually visibilities will gradually lower at all TAF sites. Slowed down the lowering ceilings and visibility some from prior TAF cycle based on current conditions and upstream trends, but still a large area of MVFR ceilings and MVFR to locally IFR visibility in the steadier rain over IL and IN moving east, so expect most of our sites to eventually get there too. Brought ceilings and visibility down late evening into the overnight with more steady/moderate rain, which continues into early Friday. Likely a relative lull in rain and modest improvement at a few northern locations later Friday morning into the afternoon...VFR will be tough to attain, but could see some areas break into MVFR for a time. MFD, CAK, and YNG will likely stay quite socked in all day and probably will struggle to break back above IFR, or will only do so briefly by a slim margin. Generally poor aviating conditions will continue in occasional rain, along with low ceilings and somewhat low visibilities, right into Friday night. With a somewhat dry east/northeast wind, ERI is actually the most optimistic TAF site with this forecast for a change, and may struggle to drop below MVFR through Friday. All other sites are shown to drop to IFR (especially ceilings, but perhaps visibility too in steadier / moderate rain or if any fog develops) at some point pre-dawn Friday and stay there through the morning, with at best modest improvement into the afternoon. Relied a fair bit on HRRR model forecast soundings and LAMP guidance to time the lowering of the ceilings later tonight. Didn`t go quite as pessimistic as some guidance, but IFR is likely for at least a time into Friday morning at all sites but ERI, and LIFR is not ruled out, especially at TOL, CLE, MFD, CAK, and YNG Friday morning. Outlook...Non-VFR likely in rain and low ceilings through Friday night. Non-VFR may persist for much of the day on Saturday. && .MARINE... Quiet conditions will continue on the lake through Friday morning with light NE winds of generally 5-10 knots tonight and 10-15 knots Friday morning, but that will change Friday afternoon through Saturday. Low pressure slowly passing through the Ohio Valley combined with strong high pressure over the upper Great Lakes will lead to a strong NE wind and resultant high waves. NE winds quickly increase to 15-25 knots Friday afternoon peaking at 25-30 knots Friday night through Saturday morning. This will cause 5-7 foot waves in the central and eastern basins by late Friday afternoon and 6-8 foot waves in the western basin where the fetch is the longest. Waves will peak at 6-9 feet over most of the lake Friday night and Saturday morning with 9-10 feet possible in the western basin. Issued Small Craft Advisories from mid morning Friday into Saturday night to account for all of this. The winds and waves will cause water rises in the western basin of Lake Erie. The current forecast is for water levels to reach about 4.3 feet above low water datum Friday night into Saturday morning at Marblehead and about 4.7 feet at Toledo. Lower lake levels this year compared to the previous few years is helping to prevent higher water, but suspect there will still be localized lakeshore flooding, so issued an SPS for lakeshore areas from Toledo to Port Clinton. High pressure building in Saturday night will allow winds and waves to gradually decrease Saturday evening, but NE winds of 15-20 knots and 3-5 foot waves will continue Saturday night decreasing to 10-15 knot winds and 2-4 foot waves Sunday. Generally light E to SE winds are then expected Sunday night through Tuesday as high pressure strengthens across the region. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ142>148. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 11 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...26/Sullivan SHORT TERM...Garuckas LONG TERM...Garuckas AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Garuckas
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1011 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1007 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 Convection has ended for now. There is still a slight chance for more showers and thunderstorms in the far southeastern counties, but it is unlikely. The rest of the night will be mainly clear behind the cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 Some clearing from earlier along with a convective outflow boundary moving down from the north is helping shower and thunderstorm activity develop along the I-35 corridor from Austin northward. The HRRR model suggests additional development will continue to slowly develop southward and eastward into the I-35 corridor to near San Antonio and southeastward into the coastal plains. There has been no change to the SPC outlook, with a Slight Risk generally along and north of a Llano to Buda to Bastrop to Round Top line. The Marginal Risk extends southward to roughly Utopia to Pleasanton to Kenedy line. We still have plenty of instability over the region and certainly can`t rule out some additional severe storms through this afternoon and early evening. The chance for severe weather should decrease by mid to late evening as rain chances become favored for areas generally east of the I-35 corridor. Shortly after midnight, we should see showers and storms end across south central Texas. Overnight lows will be coolest over portions of the Hill Country where a weak front will help drop low temperatures down near 60 degrees. As you head farther south and west, it will be warmer, with overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Much warmer temperatures and dry weather are in store on Friday as highs peak in the lower 90s to near 100 along the Rio Grande, with heat index values several degrees above the air temperature. It will be warm and muggy Friday night, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 The heat will be out in full force as we head into the weekend with near-record to record heat expected across much of South-Central Texas. Shortwave ridging will take over Saturday afternoon and continue through Mother`s Day, with the mercury soaring well into the 90s for most areas along and east of US-281, and into the 100- 106 range west of US-281. With surface dewpoints in the 60s and 70s generally along and east of I-35, it will be downright miserable for many, with heat indices in the 105-110 range. While the humidity shouldn`t be quite as intense out west into the Rio Grande Plains, Southern Edwards Plateau, and Winter Garden region, rapid mixing should result in surface temperatures well into the triple digits both days. Heat Advisories will likely be needed both days as this early season heat will be our first real taste of summer-like heat since Sep-Oct 2021. In fact, NAEFS percentiles has a good chunk of the region in the climatological max for temperatures Saturday and Sunday. Mid-level flow should start to flatten out and turn more zonal on Monday, before shifting to more of a southwesterly flow regime through midweek. That should set the stage for the possibility of convection developing over the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau, as well as over the Rio Grande Plains as SDB storms attempt to organize and move across the border late Monday and again late Tuesday. Temperatures will remain quite toasty, with mid to upper 90s for most, with the exception being over the Winter Garden region and locations along the Rio Grande like Del Rio and Eagle Pass, where highs should touch the century mark most days. Despite beneficial rains over the last several days, the forecast doesn`t call for much in the way of rainfall over the next week, and coinciding with what should be our rainy season along with continued drought conditions , we are going to miss out on needed rain chances for much of next week. An upper level low will get cut off and meander over the SE CONUS, creating a bit of a blocking pattern over the eastern US. This will limit what has been a fairly progressive pattern of "troughiness" for the south-central US the last several weeks. Expect the heat to continue, with high temperatures more typical of early July than early May. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 A line of thunderstorms is moving through the Austin area and will mean possible thunderstorms at AUS for the next hour or two. Any storms will produce MVFR conditions at the airport and winds may gust up to 30 kts. Otherwise, terminals are VFR. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms in the San Antonio area early this evening, but it looks like storms will dissipate before they make it that far south. MVFR fog will develop early Friday morning at AUS and is possible in the San Antonio area. Visibility will recover by mid-morning. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Saturday, May 7th and Sunday, May 8th Austin Bergstrom.......102 in 1998 .........97 in 2011 Austin Camp Mabry......102 in 1998 .........99 in 1967 San Antonio Int........100 in 1998 ........102 in 1927 Del Rio................106 in 1998 ........103 in 1967 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 66 95 72 96 / 40 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 93 70 96 / 50 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 67 96 70 98 / 50 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 61 93 70 99 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 100 73 105 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 62 93 70 96 / 20 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 67 97 71 103 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 67 95 70 98 / 60 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 94 72 97 / 80 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 68 95 71 99 / 30 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 71 99 73 102 / 30 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...Morris Aviation...05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
850 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 ...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY... .UPDATE... Water vapor imagery and RAP model generally show mid to upper level ridging over the area with a significant trough over the central U.S. At the sfc, ridge of high pressure is located to our south with weak sfc troughing over the Carolinas to central GA providing for a light west to southwest flow over the local area at this time. The airmass is a bit drier than yesterday with PWAT of 1.23 inches, and warmer temps at 500 mb thanks to the ridging building in aloft in the past 24 hours. The forecast remains on track, with only a very slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this aftn as the westerly flow meets up with an Atlantic sea breeze. This very low rain chance is along the eastern zones today, after about 2-3 pm as the cap will need to be overcome by aftn heating. High temps well above normal by about 10 deg, with near record temp at our climate sites AMG and JAX, with other records maybe a bit out of reach. We have lower to mid 90s inland, and about 89-90 or so at the coast due to a mid to late aftn sea breeze. Rain chances should quickly diminish in the evening hours. Current climate records today: JAX 94 (1898) CRG 96 (2021) GNV 97 (1902) SSI 93 (1952) AMG 94 (2012) .MARINE... Offshore flow will turn to the southeast today at 10-15 kt and seas generally remain around the 1-3 ft range. Little change needed in the update. Rip currents/beaches: Surf looks to be 1-2 ft with a low end moderate risk due to the weak swell component and the aftn onshore flow. May dominant period about 7 seconds with low swell height less than 1 foot at 14 seconds. The risk may trend a bit lower on Friday. && .PREV DISCUSSION [730 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... An upper level ridge across the southwest Gulf of Mexico will build across the area today ahead of an upper level low moving across the southern Plains. This will lead to significant subsidence aloft this afternoon, and only very low rain chances late this afternoon and early evening. Northwesterly upper level flow will prevail today, with flow becoming more zonal tonight as the upper level low moves closer. At the surface, weak high pressure will remain south southeast of Bermuda, and an overall light westerly flow will prevail across the area. Sea breeze boundaries will move inland this afternoon and an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, it will be hot today with near record high temperatures. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, except slightly cooler at the beaches. A cold front will move into the Tennessee Valley overnight, but besides a slight increase in cirrus clouds, quiet conditions will continue. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s across the interior and around 70 at the beaches. .SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]... On Friday, ridging over the region shifts southward as mid-upper troughing moves eastward into the Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, its associated surface low pushes a cold front through the southeast US with the front weakening as it moves toward the area. Breezy southwesterly winds develop ahead of the approaching front on Friday with frequent gusts up to 25 mph possible. Pre-frontal showers and storms begin to move into inland SE GA late Friday afternoon into early evening. Scattered to numerous showers and storms spread across SE GA and NE FL Friday night into Saturday as the front slows down as it enters inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley. Breezy westerly winds develop shortly after sunrise. Flow aloft shifts to west-northwesterly as the trough moves into the mid-Atlantic region advecting cooler, drier air into SE GA Saturday afternoon into night. Cooling mid-level temperatures could result in a few strong thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and early evening hours. Rain ends from northwest to southeast Saturday night. Above normal temperatures continue on Friday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Temperatures decrease on Saturday due to cloud cover and cool, dry air moving into SE GA with highs in the 80s and lows in the low 60s to upper 60s. .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]... A stacked low develops and strengthens off the North Carolina coast as its associated cold front over north-central FL shifts southward down the peninsula. The low will then linger in the Atlantic off the North Carolina coast through mid week. Meanwhile, an upper ridge axis will build from the western Gulf to the Lower Great Lakes. This setup will tighten the gradient over the region with northerly flow aloft continuing to usher in cooler, drier air into the area through mid-week. Temperatures will return to around normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Friday] VFR expected to prevail through this period with generally lower moisture values available today than yesterday. Thus, for now, any rain chances for the TAFs expected to be too low to include in the TAFs at this time. By early aftn, may need a brief period of VCSH or VCTS for one of the TAFs though. A west to southwest flow at 5-10 kt expected this morning, with a wind shift to southeast to south wind at the coastal TAFs due to the afternoon sea breeze. Winds will decrease tonight and shift to southwest again. .MARINE... An area of low pressure over the southern Plains states will progress slowly eastward across the Missouri and Ohio Valleys today and Friday. A cold front will then move across the Southeast Friday night, approaching the Georgia waters by Saturday morning. South to southwesterly winds will strengthen over our local waters late tonight with Caution conditions expected Friday night. The front will move slowly across our local waters this weekend as low pressure pushes offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage this weekend. Weak low pressure will then meander off the Carolina coast early next week as strong high pressure builds over the Canadian Maritime Region, bringing an increase in northeasterly winds and building seas for much of next week. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at the beaches today and low risk of rip currents on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 66 90 66 85 / 10 10 40 30 30 SSI 89 71 90 71 86 / 10 10 10 30 30 JAX 93 68 92 70 88 / 20 20 10 30 40 SGJ 91 69 91 71 88 / 10 10 10 30 40 GNV 93 66 90 69 88 / 10 10 10 40 50 OCF 93 67 90 70 86 / 10 10 10 50 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
653 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 Synopsis: A deep mid/upper level low is expected to spin eastward from Colorado and into the Ozarks by Friday morning. At the sfc, an eastward extending warm front attached to the sfc low will lift northward today, and should be cutting through the Commonwealth by this afternoon and evening. An attendant sfc cold front will trail from the sfc low and southward into Texas. Overview: Marginal risk for severe weather today, with the greatest threat confined to areas south of the warm front this afternoon and early evening. The area with the greatest potential for severe storms is in south-central KY, specifically counties along and south of I-165 (Natcher Pkwy) and the Cumberland Pkwy (Warren, Allen, Butler, Barren, Logan, Edmonson, Simpson vicinity). Max temperatures for today will range drastically depending on how far north the warm front pushes this afternoon during peak heating. Currently expect forecast highs for counties along and south of the Kentucky Parkways to reach the upper 70s and low 80s. Areas north of the Parkways are forecast to reach the upper 60s to low to mid 70s. Discussion: First half of the short term period will actually start off quiet. Weak upper ridging will be departing off the east along with the northern sfc high, resulting in our sfc winds to turn from easterly this morning to southerly by this afternoon. As the warm front lifts north, it will bring a warm and rather moist airmass with it into our region. Dewpoints will rise in the low to mid 60s, though some ensemble members do not rule out the possibility of seeing some sfc obs with dewpoints in the upper 60s south of the warm front. SPC drew the Marginal risk mainly on where dewpoints will be 60 or greater. The 00z HREF ensemble mean paints 1000-1500 J/kg of sfc based CAPE across the south-central KY counties mainly between 19z-23z today. Models seem to be in fairly good agreement that we will be able to get some decent instability this afternoon south of the warm front where temps and dewpoints will be the highest. However, model soundings show rather weak low level wind fields, with 0-1km shear values mainly below 20kts. With the lowest 1km winds potentially more westerly this afternoon, that will greatly inhibit a veering profile and knock down our SRH values. Though overall effective bulk shear is marginal with roughly 30kts possible, any cluster of convection that can develop will likely be messy and somewhat unorganized. Additionally, rather high wet bulb zero heights limit large hail potential given the deep low level warm layer that should allow for rapid melting should any hailstones fall out of updrafts. Overall threat appears marginal based off of current data, though it`ll be important to keep eyes on the trends in the CAMs with future runs. North of the warm front, we can still expect to have some thunderstorms, though should be elevated in nature and much weaker. The warm front should be roughly along and parallel to the Ohio River by 00z this evening. We expect to get another cluster of convection moving northeast from western Tennessee into central Kentucky late tonight and into early Friday morning within the warm sector. However, the loss of daytime heating will result in rather limited instability for these storms to work with. Should have some rumbles of thunder overnight as the cluster passes through, though not expecting any severe weather with this late night round. Warm sectoring will help keep temps mild overnight, with forecast low temps in the low 60s across the region. .Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 ...RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY... =================================== Synoptic Overview =================================== The last in a parade of systems from the Pacific is forecast to slowly track through the region on Friday and Saturday. This feature will bring rather unsettled weather to the region on Friday with remnant showers and low cloudiness expected for Saturday. Moving into the new week, large scale troughing will be found on both coasts of the CONUS. In between, large scale mid-level ridging will be found from the western Gulf northeastward through the Ohio Valley. This pattern will feature dry and increasingly milder conditions across the Ohio Valley with temperatures averaging above normal next week. =================================== Meteorological Discussion and Sensible Weather Impacts =================================== For Friday, a closed upper level low is forecast to start the day off in southern MO with a surface low right underneath. Throughout the day this feature will translate eastward and occlude thorugh southern/central IN. It is possible that a secondary low may develop across western KY and then shift eastward through the state during the daytime hours. Surface frontal boundary will push eastward in tandem with the advancing low and widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the region. There is still a bit of uncertainty on the convective evolution for Friday. Instability will largely be determined by how overnight and early morning convection evolves. Model solutions still have substantial differences with the high res NAM solutions being a bit more aggressive than the HRRR and RUC solutions. Pocket of colder air aloft will move over the region and that will steepen the lapse rates across the region during the late morning and early afternoon. Model proximity soundings show this quite well and the overall thermodynamic and kinematic profiles would suggest multi-cellular convection with lines/bowing segments. Given the cooler mid-level temps, marginally severe hail would be possible in the strongest cores along with a threat of damaging winds. Highest probability of strong/severe storms is likely in areas east of the I-65 corridor, but may be confined to areas to areas along and east of I-75. Highs on the day will likely top out in the lower 70s. By Friday night, the surface and upper level low will move east, but remnant low cloudiness and rain showers are likely to persist over much of the region as temperatures fall into the lower-mid 50s. For Saturday, closed/stacked surface/upper level low system will be just east of the region. However, cool northwest flow with plentiful moisture in place will keep conditions cloudy throughout the day. Scattered rain showers are likely in the morning, but this activity is likely to pull out of the region by early-mid afternoon with some partial clearing arriving in the western sections of the forecast area by evening. Temperatures will be held down due to the clouds and highs will range from the mid 60s to the upper 60s. Lows Saturday night will cool into the lower 50s. Moving into Sunday, the upper level low is expected to move on off to the east while high pressure builds in at the surface and mid- level heights begin to quickly rise across the region. In general, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected for Mother`s Day with highs topping out in the mid-upper 70s. Lows Sunday night will dip back into the mid-upper 50s. For the Monday-Wednesday period, the upper level pattern here will feature troughs on both US coasts with an upper level ridge oriented in a SW-NE direction from the western Gulf into the Ohio Valley. This ridge is expected to hold sway across the region as upper level blocking develops over the NE US. With dry conditions expected, temperatures will moderate through the period. Highs on Monday should warm into the low-mid 80s. Highs should warm a little more on Tuesday/Wednesday with highs warming into the mid-upper 80s. Hard to say if we`ll hit the 90s by mid-week given the recent rains, wet ground, and generally lush vegetative conditions. However, with higher sun angles and mostly sunny days, we could dry things out a bit quicker than expected. Overall, the best chances of temperatures hitting 90 would be in areas west of the I-65 corridor. Lows through the period will generally be in the low-mid 60s. =================================== Forecast Confidence =================================== Forecast confidence for Friday and Saturday is high on widespread precipitation and thunderstorms. Confidence on the severe weather risk for Friday remains low at this time. Forecast confidence for Sunday-Wednesday is medium to high. && .Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 652 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 Expect VFR flight cats for this morning, but as a warm front lifts northward into the region, we will see showers and storms at all terminals this afternoon and evening. Strongest storms are expected in the BWG area late afternoon and early evening, which could temporarily result in reduced flight cats. Otherwise, should see ceilings drop back down to MVFR towards the end of the TAF period, especially at HNB, as the attendant cold front slowly approaches from the west by tomorrow morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Short Term...CJP Long Term...MJ Aviation...CJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
932 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will shift away from the area tonight. Low pressure will track into the Ohio Valley on Friday as a warm front sits to our south. The low pressure will redevelop near the mid- Atlantic coast Friday night into Saturday, becoming a slow moving coastal storm which will affect the area for much of the weekend. Building high pressure to the north will slowly push the coastal storm southward during the early to middle portion of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast remains on track. Will bump up "Patchy Fog" to "Areas of Fog" across southeast New Jersey and most of Delmarva. With a light onshore flow and increasing dew points, NARRE and HRRR showing potential for fog development over the ocean and spreading west. Otherwise, clouds will otherwise spread in from the west as low pressure approaches. Some rain may move into far western zones prior to daybreak. Latest KDIX radar showing some light returns moving through eastern Pennsylvania, but dew point depressions are still upwards of 10 to 15 degrees, and surface obs upstream not currently indicating precip. Lows will be mostly in the 50s for the area. Winds will be light and variable. Friday, low pressure will begin to approach from the Tennessee Valley and an associated warm front will be ahead of the system. A shield of steady rains will develop ahead of the front and move west to east across the Middle Atlantic during the morning. Pops climb quickly to categorical by afternoon. The clouds and rain along with the onshore flow will create a raw spring feel as temperatures will only rise a few degrees from the overnight lows. Winds will be E to SE at 10 to 15 mph much of the day. Total rainfall thru sunset Friday will range from a couple tenths of an inch across srn DE to three-quarters of an inch for NW areas. Just the beginning of a rainy period for the region. One exception will be across srn DE where the front will meander thru during the afternoon and some warmer/unstable air will arrive. Highs across srn DE will probably top out in the mid 60s. These areas may also have some sct convection so thunder in the fcst was left as is. The SPC has some adjacent areas in a Marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A strong, slow moving coastal storm will affect the region for most of the weekend. Widespread rain will be ongoing early Friday night as a warm front sits south of our region. Primary low pressure over the Ohio Valley will weaken Friday night as a secondary low develops just off the Delmarva coast in response to an approaching upper level trough and strong low level frontogenetic forcing. That secondary low will continue to develop off the coast and sit with little movement Saturday into Sunday, before strong high pressure to the north begins slowly forcing it south. The low will also start to become vertically stacked during this time as the upper level trough closes off and moves over the surface low. This will cause the surface low to start slowly weakening, but thanks to strong high pressure to the north, the pressure gradient will remain very strong, reinforcing the onshore flow. This is quite an anomalous system for the season, a true Nor`easter with multiple days of rain and battering wind likely especially at the coast. The steadiest rain is expected from Friday night through Saturday, but periods of rain and showers are likely to continue into Sunday. We`ll first deal with the initial thump of overrunning precipitation, which will be what starts during the daytime on Friday. As the coastal low spins up, we`ll then see areas of banded frontogenetic precipitation on its northwest flank which will continue to bring areas of rain through Sunday. With time on Sunday, as the low slowly shifts further south, northern portions of the area may dry out, while showers likely continue to the south and east. Temperatures will also be a story this weekend. The combination of rain, a thick cloud deck, and strong onshore winds will lead to much below normal temperatures both Saturday and Sunday. Highs mostly in the low to mid 50s are expected, and a lot of time will be spent in the 40s. Combined with the wind and rain, the weekend looks downright ugly overall. Outside of the general unpleasantness, there are a couple of specific hazards to watch. In terms of rainfall, this is not looking like a flash flooding situation due to the long duration of the event. The latest projections are a storm total of around 1.75 to 2.5 inches of rain across the area. This should generally preclude any significant issues. However, some guidance suggests more like 2 to 4 inches for a storm total, and if we start to get into those higher numbers, larger river rises and potentially flooding would become possible. We`ll need to watch that closely as if anything it seems more likely our QPF will trend up as opposed to down. We will also be watching the winds. Guidance suggests a potent east- northeasterly LLJ developing by Saturday afternoon, with a strong consensus for winds of 50 to 55 kt at 925 mb. Looking at BUFKIT profiles and considering this flow regime, Wind Advisory conditions with gusts up to 50 mph appear probable along the coast, possibly into the coastal plain. Further inland, we will be sub-advisory, but certainly still breezy with gusts of 30 to 35 mph, especially from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. There are also marine and coastal concerns with this storm, but they are detailed in additional sections below. All in all, likely to be an active weekend of weather. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Overview... A stagnant upper level pattern, in the form of a Rex block, will develop over eastern North America and the western Atlantic next week. In an unusual evolution, the coastal storm from over the weekend will slowly be forced south and east of the region as strong high pressure builds in to the north. The forecast details next week will largely depend on exactly how far south the coastal low and associated closed upper level low make it. Overall, the trend into next week should be for warmer and drier conditions, but with a couple of caveats. First, prolonged onshore flow is likely to continue, which will keep the coast cooler. Second, the position of the low will still have to be monitored. If it ends up a little closer, and/or helps to direct a couple of weak shortwave disturbances over the area, there could be a shower threat into next week also. But think from Monday and especially Tuesday onward, mainly dry conditions will prevail, along with the warming trend and slowly decreasing winds. Dailies... Sunday night-Monday night... We`ll start to see some improvement by the beginning of the new week, but it will be gradual. Continued shower activity is possible Sunday night, but should become less prevalent with time and will more and more favor the further southeast portions of the area. A chilly night with lows well down into the 40s. On Monday, the low continues to inch its way further south. Its position will determine the details for Monday, but currently think Monday will be a mostly dry day. Still a lingering shower risk especially in the eastern portion of the area, but probably more spotty in nature than prior days with more sunshine as well especially inland. Monday will also start our warming trend, but like everything else with getting rid of this system, it will be slow and gradual. Most places should at least return to the low 60s. An exception will be eastern portions of the area, where more cloud cover and continued northeast winds will keep conditions cooler. Another chilly, but mainly dry, overnight is expected Monday night with temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s. Tuesday-Thursday... A warming trend is expected as high pressure continues to force the coastal low southward and the upper level pattern takes on a true Rex block configuration. By Tuesday, many areas will return to the mid 60s, and we may see some 70 degree readings by Wednesday or at least near 70. By Thursday, more widespread 70s are likely. However, onshore flow will continue, and while it will gradually weaken, it will remain fairly breezy especially near the coast. This will continue to keep coastal areas significantly cooler. With the low pushing further south, forcing should be much weaker over our area by this time. Cannot entirely rule out some spotty showers on these days especially in eastern areas, but expecting dry conditions by and large. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight (00Z through 12Z)...Overall VFR. However, IFR CIGs/VSBYs in fog/low clouds look to spread into KACY/KMIV after 08Z. LGT/VRB winds. Moderate confidence. Friday...Conditions lower to MVFR in the morning, and then to IFR in the afternoon in rain/fog. E winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence. Outlook... Friday night-Saturday night... Predominantly IFR conditions with rain and low clouds. Some improvement is possible from north to south by Saturday night. Strong northeast winds are expected throughout this period especially towards the coast. Winds will generally run 15 to 20 kt with gusts of 30 to 35 kt, stronger at the coast and a little weaker to the north and west. Moderate confidence. Sunday-Sunday night... A continued improvement in conditions, albeit slow, is possible. Northern portions of the area may trend more VFR/MVFR, while southern areas continue to deal with MVFR/IFR. Northeast winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt, stronger at the coast, weaker inland, and decreasing by Sunday night. Low confidence. Monday-Tuesday... Mainly VFR with localized restrictions possible mainly southeast of PHL. Northeast wind 10 to 15 kt with some higher gusts especially near the coast. Moderate confidence. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions tonight and much of Friday as high pressure over the waters (tonight) moves away. This evening, some SE winds up Delaware Bay may approach 15 to 20 kts and there will be locally choppy seas. Tomorrow, onshore winds and seas increase thru the day but hold short of SCA thru 6PM. Rain developing Friday morning. Areas of fog developing. Outlook... Friday night-Monday... A prolonged period of hazardous marine weather conditions is expected. Strong northeast winds are expected. Winds will steadily ramp up to gale force on Friday night. Gale force winds will then continue through Sunday and likely through Sunday night. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 kt with gusts of 40 to 45 kt are likely. A period of storm force conditions is possible especially Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Seas will quickly build to 4 to 8 ft Friday night, then generally run 10 to 15 ft through Monday. Periods of rain, heavy at times. Monday-Tuesday... SCA conditions will continue at least on the Atlantic coastal waters due to elevated seas and breezy northeast winds. Winds will likely remain strong enough for SCA conditions on Delaware Bay also. However, conditions will slowly be starting to subside during this time with additional improvement likely into midweek. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A prolonged period of onshore flow will begin on Friday, and looks to continue for about a week. High pressure will be anchored too the north, and slow moving low pressure will pass to the south. The strongest of the onshore flow will occur over the weekend. The first threat of coastal flooding will occur with the high tide Saturday night, with widespread minor and locally moderate coastal flooding during that time. Additional rounds of tidal flooding will affect the area into the early part of the new week. Beach erosion is also a concern with the prolonged onshore flow. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for ANZ450>453. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for ANZ430-431-454-455. && $$ Synopsis...O`Brien Near Term...MPS/O`Hara Short Term...O`Brien Long Term...O`Brien Aviation...MPS/O`Brien/O`Hara Marine...O`Brien/O`Hara Tides/Coastal Flooding...WFO PHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
620 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 Cold front advancing across the South Plains early this morning, south of Lubbock and moving south fairly quickly. A few showers and storms trying to develop along and just north of the boundary. Just south of the front, IR imagery is showing an area of mid level instability developing from near Fort Stockton northeast to Snyder. As the lift from the front reaches the area of mid level instability, showers and storms may become a little more widespread at least briefly, before the front undercuts the mid level instability and moves even farther into West Central Texas. How widespread is still the million dollar question, with even the high-res CAMs struggling with their solutions. Latest HRRR keeps convection very limited until well after sunrise as the front reaches into the Heartland and Hill Country, a solution that is starting to be backed up by some of the other models. Have trimmed back POPs just a little around San Angelo and Abilene, while boosting POPs a little farther east around Mason and Brady. Otherwise temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s today even behind the front, with considerably more sunshine than what we saw on Wednesday. Drier air mass tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 LONG TERM... ...Triple digit heat expected from Saturday through Monday. More active pattern forecast for next week with dryline thunderstorms possible... As the upper trough exits to the east, upper level ridging will set up for the early portion of the weekend. This will keep conditions dry and allow for the heat to soar. Friday will see highs climb into the mid and upper 90s for much of the area with the warmest temperatures to the south and west. Not only will we see west to southwest winds bringing some downslope heating but the 850 mb thermal ridge will begin to slide into the western portions of our area. 850 mb temps by Friday will already be in the 26-28 deg C range. However, in comparison to Saturday through Monday, Friday is just the precursor. Clear to mostly clear skies will allow for peak to near peak insolation each day. Lee cyclogenesis in Colorado on Saturday will help to tighten the pressure gradient across the area meaning winds will be breezy out of the southwest, which will only ramp up the warm air advection into the area. By Saturday, the 850 mb thermal ridge axis will be positioned well over West Central Texas with 850 mb temps in the 28-31 deg C range. All of this will translate into daytime highs in the low to mid 100s areawide for Saturday. This pattern will continue through Sunday as well as Monday to a slightly lesser degree. High temperatures these days will reach into the upper 90s to low and possibly even mid 100s. This will increase fire weather concerns each day, Saturday through Monday, as the rise in temperatures will cause RH values to tank well below 20% each day. And with gusty winds, currently forecasted to border on red flag criteria, it is something we will be watching closely. One stipulation to the dry and hot forecast for Monday is that we will start to see the edge of a broad upper level trough axis move into the West Central Texas area late Sunday into Monday. With a slight increase in synoptic lift and gulf moisture starting to work its way back into at least southern and eastern portions of the area, mid range models are hinting at some shower and storm activity off of a dryline late Monday. This pattern is expected to potentially increase in intensity by Tuesday as winds shift to a more south/southeasterly direction, allowing for more gulf moisture to spread further north and west. Not only this but an upper low in the Intermountain West will open up and start to eject eastward through mid next week to further increase potential lift. There is still obviously a lot of uncertainty this far out but for now we will keep PoPs at or just below slight chance for the possibility of afternoon and evening thunderstorms most days next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 A few showers and storms have developed west of KABI as a cold front sweeps south into the area. A stray shower will be possible at KABI and KSJT through mid morning or so, but better chance for storms will be across the southern and eastern terminals later this morning. Winds will shift to the north and northwest behind the front. MVFR and some IFR cigs have developed across most of the area both ahead of and behind the front. These should continue through much of the morning, but drier air working its way into the area will lead to decreasing clouds and VFR conditions for the afternoon and through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 83 55 95 64 / 30 0 0 0 San Angelo 87 57 98 67 / 20 0 0 0 Junction 87 57 96 67 / 50 0 0 0 Brownwood 83 54 95 64 / 70 0 0 0 Sweetwater 83 57 96 64 / 20 0 0 0 Ozona 87 58 96 65 / 20 0 0 0 Brady 84 58 95 67 / 80 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...07