Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/04/22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Albany NY

 945 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather this evening will give way to a steady
rainfall for tonight. Some additional showers are expected through
the day tomorrow, along with cool and cloudy conditions. Milder
temperatures, along with a partly to mostly sunny sky, will return
for Thursday, as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...As of 930 PM EDT, some light showers/sprinkles were
located across the southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley and
portions of southern VT. As isentropic lift increases on the
300-310 K surfaces, expect additional bands of light showers to
overspread areas near and especially north of I-90 through 11
PM. Farther south, a few showers/sprinkles will develop south
of I-90 toward and especially after midnight across the eastern
Catskills, southern portions of the Capital Region and northern
Taconics/Berkshires.

As a strengthening low level jet approaches from the southwest,
and with a pocket of low/mid level dry air above the boundary
layer, some gusty southeast winds will persist over the next
1-2 hours, until steadier rain saturates these layers closer to
or just after midnight. Some gusts of 25-30 mph may occur within
some north/south oriented valleys, including around the
immediate Capital Region, as well as some higher elevations of
the eastern Catskills, SW Adirondacks, and on the south side of
the Mohawk Valley.

Previous discussion follows...

As of 334 PM EDT...Surface high pressure is currently offshore
eastern New England is departing off to the east. The flow
around this high pressure area has been allowing for a moist
east to southeast flow in the area, allowing for plenty of
clouds around. Although weak ridging has been in place aloft,
the ridge axis will be shifting to the east this evening, as a
fast moving storm system starts approaching the area from the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Although there had been some breaks in the clouds this
afternoon, mid and high level clouds are already increasing from
the west and skies will become mostly cloudy to overcast for the
evening. Although the evening will start off dry, isentropic
lift will lead to rain moving in for the overnight hours. 3 km
HRRR suggests some spotty light rain or showers could start
impacting the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley as early as 8 or 9
PM, although the bulk of the precip will be arriving after
midnight, as a large shield of rain moves west to east across
the area for the late night hours. Most of the rain will be
light, although some brief moderate bursts can`t be ruled out,
especially for the Adirondacks. The best forcing looks to be
across northern areas, so rainfall amounts will likely be
lighter for far southern areas and heaviest across the
Adirondacks, where the low-level jet will locally enhanced
precip for the southern facing slopes. Instability looks fairly
limited, but can`t totally rule out a rumble of thunder for
southern or southwestern areas towards daybreak as Showalter
values approach zero.

Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday, the best isentropic lift will shift northeast of
the area during the morning hours. However, the threat for
additional showers will continue through the entire day as low
pressure passes across the area and the upper level shortwave
crosses the region. Model guidance seems to suggest that while
all areas will see some light rain through the day, the
steadiest and heaviest amounts will likely be located across the
northern half of the area. Still can`t totally rule out a stray
rumble of thunder for southern areas, although the best chance
of elevated instability will likely be south of the forecast
area. With the widespread clouds and precip, as well as the
moist southeast flow, temps will be held down into the 50s for
the entire day.

As the storm departs, it will remain damp and cool into
Wednesday night with precip ending. As some breaks in the
clouds occur, patchy fog will form, although this will depend on
how light winds remain and if any drier air starts working its
way into the region. Temps will fall into the 40s, although some
upper 30s are possible in the Adirondacks.

High pressure will build into the area for Thursday into
Thursday night. This will allow for dry weather and skies will
become partly to mostly clear. With a recent amount of sun
expected on Thursday, temps should rise well into the 60s with
afternoon dewpoints falling into the 30s. Despite the decent
mixing, winds won`t be too strong for Thursday and should remain
under 15 mph. Dry weather will continue into Thursday night with
lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s, and frost is expected for areas
where the growing season has begun.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main uncertainty during the long term revolves around track of
closed mid/upper level low, which most guidance suggests will track
from the Ohio Valley region toward the mid Atlantic coast between
Friday and Sunday, with upper level ridging then building across the
region from the north/west early next week.

Given confluent upper level flow across the northeast states and
southeast Canada for Friday-Sunday, there will likely be a sharp
northern edge to associated steady precipitation and thicker cloud
cover associated with system tracking to our south. Consensus of
guidance (NBM) generally brings slight chance PoPs as far north as
around I-90 Saturday afternoon, with chance PoPs farther south,
before PoPs slowly drop off from north to south Saturday night into
Sunday. So, chances for light rain basically for SE Catskills, mid
Hudson Valley and NW CT late Friday into Saturday, before
potentially shifting back southward during Sunday. However, there
remains uncertainty regarding this northern edge, so ultimately
additional changes to forecast will remain possible. Best chances
for dry weather and less clouds this weekend will be across southern
Adirondacks into southern VT.

By early next week, model consensus suggests upper level ridging and
a surface high build southward, keeping the region dry along with a
gradual moderating temperature trend.

As for temps, daytime highs Fri-Sun will be dependent on where
thicker clouds and precipitation occur; with highs mainly in the 50s
(if not for some upper 40s) possible for southern areas, and mid 50s
to lower/mid 60s for northern areas. Overnight lows mainly in the
30s and 40s, with some lower 30s or colder mins possible (esp Sun
AM) across portions of the southern Adirondacks, southern VT and the
Lake George/Saratoga region, assuming skies remain mostly clear.

For Mon/Tue, high temps should warm into the 60s and 70s (especially
valley areas by Tuesday), assuming aforementioned ridging builds
into the area. Lows again in the 30s and 40s, coldest across the
southern Adirondacks and southern VT. Could be some large diurnal
temperature changes given a potentially dry air mass in place.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure will track into western New York State overnight,
then redevelop near Long Island during Wednesday before tracking
northeast off the New England coast Wednesday night.

Patchy light rain will develop this evening at KGFL and possibly
KALB, between 00Z-02Z/Wed. Despite the light rain, conditions
should generally remain VFR during this time.

Steadier rain will then overspread the TAF sites from west to
east between 05Z-08Z/Wed, with Cigs dropping to MVFR, and Vsbys
ranging from VFR to MVFR. A few periods of moderate rain will be
possible shortly after daybreak Wednesday, possibly producing
periods of IFR Vsbys/Cigs, especially through around 18Z/Wed.

The rain may become more showery, and/or taper to drizzle
Wednesday afternoon. However, still expect widespread MVFR
Cigs/Vsbys to linger through most of Wednesday afternoon, with a
few periods of IFR possible, especially for Cigs. The best
chance for a longer period of IFR/LIFR conditions will be KPSF
Wednesday afternoon.

Southeast winds will increase to 8-12 KT this evening, with a
few gusts of 20-25 KT possible at KALB and KPSF through around
05Z/Wed. Winds may decrease slightly toward 12Z/Wed to 5-10 KT.

During Wednesday, southeast winds at 4-8 KT will become
light/variable around midday, then trend into the north to
northwest during the afternoon at 5-10 KT.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A wetting rainfall is expected across the entire area for
tonight into Wednesday. RH values will remain above 70 percent
through the day on Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Southerly
winds of 5 to 10 mph tonight and Wednesday will become north to
northwest by Wednesday night around 5 mph.

Dry weather will return on Thursday with afternoon RH values
back down to around 30 percent. Northwest winds will be 5 to 10
mph on Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are anticipated through the rest of the
week. Forecast rainfall through the next 7 days is an inch or
less.

As a storm system impacts the region, 0.25 to 0.75 inches of
rain is expected tonight into tomorrow, which will allow for
some small rises on rivers and streams. Any rises look very
fairly minor and no flooding is anticipated.

Drier weather returns Thursday. Another area of low pressure may
bring some showers to southern areas Friday into Saturday, but
rainfall amounts generally look to be on the lighter side. As a
result, rivers and streams will mainly be holding steady for the
late week and into the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Evbuoma/KL
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

 1013 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

An area of light rain showers that is seemingly tied to weak
upper level divergence is located over eastern Montana. Radar
trends show some of this activity could move into northwest North
Dakota overnight. RAP 700-600 mb RH seems to have a good handle on
the location of the showers, which was relied upon to add a
slight chance of rain to the forecast. Only trace amounts of rain
are likely.

UPDATE Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

No major changes are needed for this update. A few high-resolution
models depict a narrow corridor of fog west of Jamestown early
tomorrow morning, so a patchy fog mention was added to the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

Warmer and dry conditions through this week with highs in the
upper 60s and possible the lower 70s in the end of the week.

Breezy winds this afternoon in the southwest as the pressure
gradient tightens between the surface low in Wyoming and the high
pressure to our northeast. These winds should relax after sunset.
A shortwave ridge will continue this afternoon and through
tonight before split flow takes over with ridging to our north and
a low moving through Nebraska. No precipitation for us with this
low.

Temperatures overnight will be in the mid to upper 30s with
increasing clouds. High temperatures Wednesday will warm up to the
upper 50s in the south to upper 60s in the west and north.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

Finally, temperatures will be at or above average through the
week. Then a chance of thunderstorms this weekend and early next
week. Temperatures could reach into the 70s late week.

Split flow will continue until Thursday night when southwest flow
takes over on the leading edge of a broad trough. Multiple low
pressure systems could move through embedded in this trough. The
cluster analysis shows uncertainty in the amplitude and timing of
this incoming trough. The NBM temperature spreads also reflect
this with a large spread in the high temperatures through the
period.

Our next chance of rain will be Saturday afternoon with a cold
front extending down from a low pressure system in southern
Canada. Thunderstorms are possible Saturday with this through the
evening. QPF looks to be under an inch. The greatest probabilities
for 0.25 or more ending 12z Sunday are over the eastern half of
the forecast area at 50 percent. Probabilities drop to less than
30 percent in the same area for 0.50 inches or greater through the
same timeframe. Sunday morning a low pressure from the Northern
Rockies moves in, bringing another chance of rain Sunday. A slight
ridge then forms Sunday night before the next system that could
impact the area with more rain Monday through Tuesday. 48 hour QPF
ending Tuesday morning for this early next week system looks to
be around 0.50 inches. The probability of 0.25 or greater is 50
percent in the northwest and 70 percent in the southeast.
Probabilities then drop to 30 percent across the forecast area
for 1 inch or greater for the same timeframe. Uncertainties are
high of course being this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

Some patchy fog could develop near KJMS early Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
period, with south to southeasterly winds around 10 kts.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Hollan



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Hastings NE

 700 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 452 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

-- Highlights/primary concerns of the entire 7-day forecast in
 chronological order:

1) A wet and seasonably-cool Wed-Thurs on tap:
Our 1-day "dry break" today (still so odd to type this given
recent extreme dryness) comes to an end already tomorrow into
Thursday as a slow-moving low pressure system brings us a couple
of more seasonably-cool and dreary days punctuated by off-and-on
rounds of showers and isolated-to-scattered NON-severe
thunderstorms. Unlike our last system that was pretty much a 12-15
hour washout as it moved through progressively, this one will move
considerably slower and keep rain chances (zero concern for
"sneaky snow" this time!) around on-and-off for a solid 36-48
hours. Measurable rain will certainly not occur this entire time,
but even during the drier periods pockets of pesky drizzle could
easily kick in. Although forecast 2-day cumulative rain totals
(still straight-up WPC QPF at this point) will surely undergo
further adjustments, we are currently calling for most of the
coverage area (CWA) to tally between 0.50-1.50" (generally lowest
north/west and highest south/east. While most areas will obviously
not have fully dried before rain returns, we are fairly confident
that most areas are under little-to-no threat for organized
flooding given the fairly modest expected totals and the fact that
the soil can likely still handle a fair amount of rain (evidenced
in part by the lack of significant rises on area stream/river
gauges despite a widespread 2-4" over the past week).

2) A chance to dry out, warm up and hopefully see at least a
halfway-decent dose of sunshine Friday-Saturday daytime:
Friday should finally break what will end up being a 4-day stretch
of solidly-cooler-than-average conditions for early May, with a
return to highs well into the 60s-low 70s, with even warmer 70s to
around 80 expected Saturday (which along with a return to breezy
south-southeast winds Saturday should help things dry out again).

3) Our next window of opportunity for at least one (maybe two)
chances for strong-to-severe storms returns Saturday evening into
Sunday (along with a few comments on current SPC outlooks):
Although still a few days too soon to attempt much detail, both
the ECMWF/GFS suggest that a round of strong to perhaps severe
storms could develop near/just northwest of our CWA late Saturday
afternoon-early evening before moving into our area, with perhaps
another round of strong to severe convection trying to fire Sunday
afternoon as a front heads back north. Not surprisingly, model
support for this possible first round is at least a bit higher at
this point than for the second round. As for the SPC severe
outlooks that were issued early this AM, we fully note that they
opted to highlight parts of our CWA for a possible severe risk on
Days 6-7 (Sunday-Monday). However, based on the latest model data
(yes, still very subject to change) if anything we are a bit more
concerned here about Saturday evening-Sunday, with Monday
currently looking considerably more questionable for any severe
threat given that latest models mainly depict a warm and breezy
day with most convection holding north.

-- With the most important points covered, will dive into a bit
 more day-to-day detail to wrap things up:

- Current/recent weather situation as of 4pm:
Although dry as expected, today proved to be a bit tricky in the
cloud cover/temperature department. In short, low stratus clouds
held firmer than some models suggested (especially in our eastern
half), and even while stratus broke up in west-southwest areas a
veil of higher clouds moved in from the west. The net result has
been mainly mostly cloudy to cloudy skies today, which along with
the fairly light winds/limited mixing today (speeds generally only
5-15 MPH initially from the north this morning and now east this
afternoon) has held temperatures modestly below expectations from
the initial overnight forecast package. More specifically, most
areas now only look to top out low 50s at best (instead of mid-
upper 50s). In the mid-upper levels, water vapor imagery and short
term model data clearly depict our next weather-maker in the form
of a closed low slowly churning toward us from the UT/WY/CO border
area. At the surface, the aforementioned light winds today result
from the presence of a roughly 1018 millibar high centered over
eastern NE.

- This evening-overnight:
Of highest confidence is that the vast majority of the CWA will
remain dry the vast majority of the night, with only a handful of
far western counties assigned any "official" small PoPs very late
in the night (closer to sunrise). However, the main uncertainties
involve cloud trends and resultant hour-to-hour temperature trends
(a continuation of today`s uncertainty). While confidence is
fairly high that a widespread, low stratus deck will redevelop
and/or fill in again at some point tonight, the unusually-
optimistic NAM suggests this will not occur until very late,
while the HRRR/RAP (which have overall had a better handle this
afternoon) suggest a pretty rapid redevelopment of low clouds
already by shortly after sunset. While these differences could
easily have some effect on how quickly especially pre-midnight
temps rise or fall, fortunately the development of light-but-
steady 5-15 MPH east-southeast breezes overnight "should" keep
things from really "tanking"...even IF the first part of the night
is clearer than expected. As a result, have lows aimed low 40s
most areas, and even the upper 30s forecast in far northern/west
central zones remaining at least barely above "frost potential
territory" (something to watch closely though). Once low clouds do
establish, think at least patchy drizzle will be possible almost
anywhere (especially closer to sunrise) and have added this to the
forecast along with the aforementioned small chances for actual
rain showers in western areas. Lastly, while not expected to be a
major issue, did add some generic "patchy fog" again to far
western zones a few hours either side of sunrise, as hinted at by
various models including HRRR (although widespread clouds could
hinder much fog development).

- Wednesday daytime-night:
While rain chances return, want to emphasize again that this will
not be a total "washout" (as Monday largely was). In fact, the
majority of scattered showers/weak storm potential in the morning
will likely remain largely in our western half before chances
eventually spread farther east into the CWA during the afternoon
and especially evening-overnight. However, even where steadier
showers/storms are not occurring, pesky light drizzle could easily
develop or persist, so finding TRULY dry conditions could be tough
to come by. Over the course of these 24hrs, the heart of the main
upper low will track from CO into western KS, while a surface low
will track eastward well to our south (into the Southern Plains).
Thus, we will clearly be on the cool side of this system with only
minimal elevated instability and essentially no severe storm risk.
However, various rounds/pockets of showers/weak storms are likely
through this time. At the surface, steady 10-20 MPH east-southeast
breezes will prevail through the day, then turn more northerly
overnight as the surface low passes to our south. Temp-wise,
feeling increasingly-confident that we may again fall short of
forecast highs given widespread clouds/areas of precip, and
although maybe not enough, did already lower 3-4 degrees from
previous forecast, now calling for only low-mid 50s at best.

- Thurs daytime-night:
This is "part 2" of our 36-48 hour rain chances, as the center of
the aforementioned upper low tracks from western KS (sunrise
Thurs) to MO (by sunrise Friday). As it passes by, more chances
for off-and-on showers/weak storms will accompany it. Although
would not be surprised to see high temps lowered in later
forecasts, maintained mid-upper 50s for now. It looks to be a
somewhat breezy day too, with generally north winds gusting at
least 20-25 MPH. Although a few slower model solutions suggest
that the last bit of light rain/drizzle may still be lingering
near our eastern edges at sunrise Friday, our official forecast
again goes dry by that time.

- Friday daytime-Saturday daytime:
Already covered much of this in "number 2" above, but other than
maybe some pesky light rain/drizzle right away Fri AM in our east,
this looks to be a rather high-confidence dry 36 hours, as
broad/fairly flat upper riding prevails in between disturbances.
Breezes Fri appear rather light, but then south-southeast winds
pick up a bit Saturday daytime. As a result, high temps Saturday
are aimed a good 5-8 degrees warmer than Friday, and easily the
warmest day of the month so far.

- Saturday night-Sunday night:
Already touched on thunderstorm/possible severe weather concerns
in "number 3" above. While plenty of uncertainty remains, at least
the latest ECMWF/GFS are in decent agreement that Saturday
evening-night is probably our most "evident" strong-to-severe
storm risk at this point as a low amplitude wave approaching in
west-southwest flow aloft teams with a weak surface boundary
arriving in northern NE during the afternoon. Although low level
moisture/instability levels look to be a possible limiting factor
(dewpoints currently progged mainly mid 50s), especially the GFS
generates around 1500 J/kg CAPE and fairly decent deep layer shear
of 40-50KT. Sunday is certainly the bigger question mark regarding
whether another round of strong-severe convection is possible (?).
High temps Sunday actually nudged down 3-5 degrees from previous
(low 70s north to upper 70s south).

- Monday-Tuesday:
No point in much detail at this time range, but if anything
compared to 24hrs ago, models appear more insistent in developing
a blocking pattern. This effectively keeps the next large-scale
western trough from aggressively entering our region, but instead
holds it out west (due to eastern CONUS ridging) and gives us
varying "glancing blows" of lift along its eastern periphery. This
raises a lot of question marks about convective potential, which
if anything seem to be trending lower. For what it`s worth for
being a week out, the latest ECMWF/GFS are in surprisingly-decent
agreement on the large scale scene, suggesting a mainly
warm/dry/breezy day Monday (widespread 80s for highs) and then at
least a slightly cooler day Tues (current forecast mainly mid 70s-
low 80s).



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

MVFR conditions persist at KGRI and KEAR terminals this evening as
ceilings remain an issue.  Clouds are expected to thicken up this
evening and into the overnight hours, with low stratus moving in
once again after midnight.  MVFR/IFR will be possible after 10Z at
KEAR and KGRI.  Periodic showers will be possible in the vicinity of
the terminals through the day, with better chances for widespread
activity coming in the late afternoon/evening.  Winds through the
forecast period remain east-southeast around 6-11kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Wekesser



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service North Platte NE

 708 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

An upper trough and closed low will move into Wyoming and western
Colorado tonight. Moisture will be drawn in ahead of this system
across western Nebraska. Chance to likely POPS will develop across
the western half of the forecast area after midnight and eastward
across the remainder of the area on Wednesday. In addition to the
showers, patchy fog is also show by the latest HRRR and RAP
to develop late tonight across the west and spread into the
central Sandhills Wednesday morning. There will also be MUCAPEs
up to 300-400 j/kg across southwest and central NE to support a
chance for a few embedded thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Highs Wednesday will be cool from the upper 40s to lower
50s. The upper low is forecast to move into western Kansas late
Wednesday night, with likely POPs forecast across the
southwestern half of the area. QPFs through Wednesday night look
to be fairly light from a tenth to a quarter inch most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

The upper low will move slowly east from western into central
Kansas on Thursday with likely POPs to continue across the
southeastern half of the area. The 12Z ECMWF is slightly further
north with this low center indicating to potential for higher
QPFs across much of western and north central Nebraska. Highs
Thursday to remain on the cool side ranging in the 50s.

The system will move southeast of the area Thursday night, with
weak upper ridging and dry conditions for Friday.

A broad upper trough will deepen across the western U.S. Saturday
through Tuesday. Impulses ejecting from this longwave trough will
bring a chance for showers each day, with thunderstorms also
possible during the afternoon and evening hours. Southwesterly
flow aloft will increase. The area is expected to remain in the
"warm sector" during much of this timeframe. This is shown more
substantially by the 12Z ECMWF than the 12Z GFS. Highs forecast to
range mostly in the 60s and 70s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 707 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

Low clouds will move into the area later this evening. Expect
widespread MVFR ceilings at the KVTN terminal and IFR ceilings at
the KLBF terminal after 06z Wednesday. Light rain showers are
expected to begin Wednesday morning and will persist into the
afternoon hours. Winds will be from the east or east southeast at
around 10 to 15 KTS through 00z Thursday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler



...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...



 .DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

Mostly cloudy and cool across the region this afternoon as the
surface low that brought our widespread precip into early this
morning was spinning over IL. Aloft, a ridge axis was sliding
across NE and was helping to dissipate some of the clouds across
western and central NE. Still, temperatures were in the mid 40s to
mid 50s across the area...around 15 to 25 degrees below average
for this time of year.

Meanwhile, water vapor imagery revealed a cutoff low over
northern UT that is progged to slide east-southeast through KS and
MO in a similar fashion to yesterday`s system, bringing more
widespread showers and perhaps a few storms to the area Wednesday
into Thursday night and possibly Friday morning. Current consensus
would place the heaviest precip (1-2") across southeast NE into
far southwest IA with lesser amounts toward 1/4" to 1/2" in
northeast Nebraska. Should also note that prior to that system
arriving, there are some signs we could get some drizzle or a few
showers Wednesday morning, with RAP soundings suggesting 1+ km of
saturation in the low levels and some isentropic lift/weak warm
air advection in the area. If this occurs, we could have some
visibility reductions during the morning commute, but plenty of
other guidance says it`s unlikely, so not including anything in
the forecast at this time...just something to keep an eye on
tonight.

Once the precip exits Friday, expect a brief period of upper
level ridging to lead to some drying time. However, southerly
return flow will begin ushering in warmer, moist air for the
weekend into early next week while a large scale upper level
trough sets up over the western CONUS. The general idea is that
we`ll see a few rounds of showers and storms into early next week
as various bits of shortwave energy/boundaries move in/near the
area, but still quite a bit of spread in guidance on exact timing
and placement. Given the strengthening upper level flow and
instability progged to be in the area, will likely see at least
one round of severe weather from the Saturday evening through
Tuesday timeframe, but again, timing and placement remains in
question. For what it`s worth, greatest ensemble/deterministic
agreement is on storms forming over central/western NE Saturday
afternoon/evening and then pushing into the forecast area during
the evening/overnight hours. Beyond that, there is a lot of
spread, and each day`s shower and storm chances will likely be
impacted by what happens the previous night. Bottom line, it`s
looking like we`ll see a somewhat active pattern this weekend into
early next week with some potential for severe weather.

Temperature-wise, we`ll be staying cool through the remainder of
the week, with highs generally in the 50s, and 60s by Friday. By
Saturday we`ll be warming up with the aforementioned southerly
return flow. Expect highs in the 70s in most areas this weekend
with widespread highs in the 80s looking likely early next week,
pending any precip timing of course.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

Low VFR ceilings 3K-4K AGL are common across the forecast area
early this evening. Expect trend to continue through the first six
hours of the TAF period as low level ridge axis will be oriented
across western Iowa and eastern Nebraska. After midnight, low
level east to southeast isentropic flow and ascent allowing MVFR
ceilings to advect into TAF sites between 07-10 UTC. As the
morning level progresses, isentropic ascent expected to increase
in response to approaching upper level system. Diabatic processes
or small scale impulse appear to enhance isentropic ascent enough
for the development of light drizzle, as noted by CAMS and point
soundings. Better rain chance expected late in the TAF period with
the approach of stronger upper level system.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Fortin



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

 833 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will oscillate north and south of the region
over the next several days. This will result in several rounds
of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. By the
weekend, an anomalous upper low will settle southward along the
Mid- Atlantic coast bringing a period of damp and unseasonably
cool temperatures to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 820 PM EDT Tuesday...

   Adjusted probability of precipitation this afternoon and
   evening.

Satellite and surface analysis showed the warm front stalled
over Buckingham county this evening. The next cluster/broken
line of thunderstorms was continuing to develop from around
Lewisburg to northwest North Carolina. The environment ahead of
this activity was still unstable enough to maintain storms
overnight but they are not expected to be as intense as the
storms that went through Tuesday afternoon. Hi-Res guidance
including the HRRR have these showers and thunderstorms
progressing across southwest Virginia and northern North
Carolina overnight. No changes to temperatures needed at this
time.

A cold front will reach the Virginia/West Virginia line late
tonight, then push east across our region on Wednesday with
scattered thunderstorms especially in the foothills and piedmont
of Virginia and North Carolina.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM EDT Tuesday...

  Brief Period of Dry Conditions, Followed by Another System
Arriving by Friday Morning

A bit of upper level ridging builds in following the frontal passage
for a brief period of high pressure and dry conditions for Wednesday
night through Thursday. A warm front enters the area from the SW,
bringing rain and thunderstorm chances to the North Carolina High
Country and Southern Blue Ridge early Friday morning. There are some
differences in models regarding how early precipitation arrives on
Friday, but will likely be in the area by mid-morning. Instability
looks to remain limited in the morning, but increases throughout the
day as temperatures warm. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid
70s west of the Blue Ridge and upper 70s in the east on Thursday,
but cool to the low to mid 70s on Friday.

Forecast confidence is moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Tuesday...

  Lingering Rain for the Weekend, Drying for the Beginning of
  Next Work Week...

The surface low and associated cold front moves to the east, toward
the NC Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning. Shower and thunderstorm
chances linger across the area behind the front as another surface
low develops in the Ohio Valley. This system will move offshore by
Sunday, with surface high pressure following behind for Monday and
Tuesday, and a return to drier conditions. Northwest flow behind the
system will keep temperatures on the cool side for the beginning of
the work week.

Forecast confidence is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 830 PM EDT Tuesday...

Satellite and surface analysis showed the warm front stalled
over Buckingham county this evening. The next cluster/broken
line of MVFR thunderstorms was continuing to develop from
around Lewisburg to northwest North Carolina. The environment
ahead of this activity was still unstable enough to maintain
storms overnight but they are not expected to be as intense as
the storms that went through Tuesday afternoon. Hi-Res guidance
including the HRRR have these showers and thunderstorms
progressing across southwest Virginia and northern North
Carolina overnight.

MVFR clouds will develop overnight. MVFR fog is also possible
where it rained Tuesday afternoon and evening.

A cold front approaches Wednesday morning. Winds will be from
the southwest tonight ahead of the front then turn to the west
behind the front Wednesday. As mixing begins in the morning
gusts of 15 to 25 kts will develop. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and visibility are expected in
the foothills and piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina ahead
of the cold front, especially after 18Z/2PM.

Average confidence on wind, visibility and ceiling.
Above average confidence on probability of thunderstorms.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Wednesday night and Thursday expect VFR conditions with no rain
expected and clearing skies.

By Friday, a deep upper low will bring several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms with the associated MVFR conditions
through Sunday. This will also increase the probability for
late night and early morning IFR/LIFR fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/SH
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AMS/KK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 547 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

Key messages:

1. Rain chances increase Wednesday afternoon through the day on
Thursday. A few inches possible.

2. Can`t rule out a severe storm or two into Thursday afternoon.

3. Much warmer temperatures into early next week - possibly close to
90 degrees, already!

Currently, the forecast area over northeastern and east central KS
is in a transition zone with a low pressure system departing to the
east with associated frontal boundaries situated well southeast of
the area and an approaching upper level Pacific system steadily
encroaching into the central Rockies at this hour. Wrap around
moisture and cooler air has been able to maintain low stratus over
the region with limited mixing and only weak dry air advection over
portions of the area.

This evening, stratus will be tough to break for long at all with
the incoming beginning to return winds and moist advection from the
southeast into the this evening and over night as a weak ridge
aloft passes overhead. Into the day tomorrow, an area of low
pressure develops on the lee of the Rockies with a digging trough
aloft. This will begin to encourage moisture flux into the region
and as the baroclinic zones sharpen, isentropic ascent will
increase over the region helping to develop a widespread
precipitation shield over the area. Anticipating that PWs increase
to around the 75th percentile range so a healthy amount of rain
should be seen across the majority of the area through the day on
Thursday as the system lifts generally to the east/northeast
across the area. All told, right now, have settled on 1.5 to 2
inches of QPF across the area. Depending on localized amounts,
some areas could see close to 3 inches and right now that looks to
be over north central into northeastern areas that would love to
see the moisture. Let`s hope the track of the system continues as
is for now to realize those amounts. If ensemble data hold true,
then these amounts should be common. Into the afternoon on
Thursday, also can`t rule out a period of severe weather potential
across east central portions of the area. Some models are more
robust with advection and overall stronger with the upper system
so height falls and lapse rates in the mid levels are stronger.
Should this come to fruition, then I can`t rule out an elevated
storm that could go severe with mostly a hail risk for a few
hours. An interesting twist that may need to be watched is that of
a weak low level inversion layer with more warming near the
surface due to WAA than anticipated. Wind fields look interesting
and thus hodographs for this period, especially with regard to the
GFS. This could allow for surface based storms which may bring
about a short period of increased potential where a tornado may
not be able to be completely ruled out. This potential is so low
right now that is not being messaged other than an idea at this
point.

As the storm system exits the area, ridging sets up for the weekend
with a drying trend in place. Should be ideal conditions with
temperatures in the 70s. A warm up with continued southerly flow
sets up into Monday with highs pushing into the 80s and dare I say
90 at this point. Uncertain on storm potential at this point into
this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 547 PM CDT Tue May 3 2022

Unfortunately it looks like the MVFR CIGS are going to remain over
the terminals for some time in part due to the lack of mixing
within the weak surface ridge. The RAP and NAM show CIGS lowering
towards the end of the forecast period as SHRA move in from the
southwest so IFR CIGS seem plausible. Mid level lapse rates appear
to be supportive of elevated TS as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Wolters