Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/02/22
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
803 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022
.UPDATE...
Updated forecast as rainfall has moved further east than expected
with measurable precipitation falling across south central
Montana. Followed RAP precipitation trends. borsum
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday night...
Upper low was sitting over northern Utah and will move eastward
tonight. Upper divergence around the low has allowed showers to
fill in over most of western and central zones. Showers will
continue early this evening and then gradually dissipate as the
low moves east and weakens. Snow levels were on the order of 6500
feet, so not expecting much wet snow in the foothills below 6000
feet but would not be surprised to see some wet snowflakes this
evening before things wind down in the higher hills.
Monday and Monday evening should be on the dry side between
systems. Temperatures on Monday will be able to reach seasonal
levels with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A strong upper low
will then drop into southern Idaho Monday evening and this will
spread clouds and increasing chances of precipitation into western
zones Monday night. This system still looks on the mild side,
with freezing levels around 7000 feet Monday evening. Snow levels
fall quickly toward Tuesday morning and this may allow some of the
rain to change to wet snow down to around 5000 feet, so this will
have to watched closely. Models have moved the system farther
north and this means precipitation potential looks much better
than previous runs and the amount fo QPF being produced by the
models has jumped significantly. This is something that will have
to watch closely with the next few model runs. TWH
Tuesday through Sunday...
An upper low crossing Northern Wyoming will bring showers to the
region on Tuesday, with showers lingering across north central
Wyoming and southeastern Montana through Wednesday morning.
Expected to see numerous showers over south central MT and WY and
scattered showers over southeast MT. Showers along the eastern
Montana border look to become more isolated as proceed northward.
Rain is expected for lower elevations, including lower foothills,
with snow above 7000 feet for the Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy
Mountains and above 7000-8500 feet for the Bighorn Mountains. The
NBM shows the probability of at least 0.1 inch precipitation is
greater than 50 percent over south central MT and north central WY
and less than 50 percent over southeast MT. The probability of at
least 0.5 inch precipitation ranges from 0 over southeast MT to
20-40 percent over the lower elevations of south central MT and
north central WY to over 50 percent in the mountains. The
probabilities indicate that the precipitation forecast is still a
bit uncertain at this time especially in the Billings to Sheridan
corridor where amounts will be greater to the southwest and lesser
to northeast. Snowfall amounts for this system look to reach 3-10
inches in the Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy Mountains and 2-4
inches in the Bighorn Mountains. There is also a slight chance of
a thunderstorm over north central WY from some weak instability.
Additionally, we will have to watch closely for cooling conditions
and lowering snow levels. Recent soundings for Livingston indicate
rapidly cooling temperatures with onset of precip Monday night,
and precip turning quickly to snow (further evidence of some
uncertainty).
Showers look to diminish from northwest to southeast Tuesday
night into Wednesday as the upper low weakens and moves farther
away from the region. Showers may linger in extreme southeast
Montana through Wednesday afternoon. Skies will become mostly
clear from northwest to southeast during this time as well. Temps
will climb readily in west and central zones on Wednesday, as
upper ridging builds into the region. Ridging will prevail through
the day Thursday, for another dry and warmer day.
A weak cold front, radiating off an upper low crossing central
Canada, will swing through the area Friday. This should bring
another chance for isolated to scattered showers across much of
the region. Isolated thunder will again be a possibility,
especially across central zones during the heat of the day. The
greatest impact of this disturbance is to flatten the ridge.
Upper level flow becomes west/southwesterly Friday night with the
approach of the next broad Pacific trough, becoming more
southwesterly Saturday. This pattern should bring in cooler air
aloft. Instability will increase and favor scattered showers and
thunderstorms for Saturday, as a shortwave trough brings stronger
dynamics over our area. Mean cyclonic flow persist across the
region Sunday, bringing continues shower potential. Recent models,
however, signal potential for splitting flow, so precip chances
may be somewhat limited.
High temperatures will generally be in the 50s and 60s Tuesday and
Wednesday, then 60s and 70s Thursday through Saturday. Widespread
50s are expected for Sunday, with a few 40s west. Gilstad/RMS
&&
.AVIATION...
Clouds and showers will cause MVFR conditions over much of
western and central terminals (from KBIL west). These conditions
will improve to widespread VFR this evening as the system causing
the precipitation moves away. Mountains will be obscured. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/063 041/055 041/067 044/076 051/074 049/069 042/057
60/B 36/R 41/B 00/B 12/T 25/T 45/R
LVM 036/061 039/050 037/063 040/072 045/068 045/060 035/050
61/N 78/R 51/B 01/B 23/R 36/T 55/O
HDN 038/065 040/060 041/066 041/076 048/075 047/071 041/059
50/B 15/R 42/R 00/B 12/R 24/T 54/R
MLS 041/061 039/061 040/063 042/074 049/074 049/073 044/059
40/N 02/R 21/B 00/U 11/B 23/T 44/R
4BQ 040/058 038/062 042/059 041/072 049/073 048/073 043/057
50/B 02/R 33/R 00/U 01/B 12/R 43/R
BHK 037/057 034/057 038/058 038/069 046/072 047/071 042/057
20/N 01/N 21/B 00/U 01/B 12/R 44/R
SHR 036/060 038/058 040/059 038/072 044/072 045/071 038/055
52/W 26/T 64/R 10/U 02/R 14/T 55/R
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
530 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022
The main focus of the short term forecast remains the widespread
precipitation event expected tonight through Monday. The key
points are as follows:
* High confidence that widespread substantial precipitation will
fall along and east of the Laramie range.
* Low to medium confidence in the extent and timing of the
potential transition to snow.
This event can be split into two phases, with the initial spring
time shower phase beginning this afternoon through the night, and
then transitioning to a more stratiform wintry event by the
morning.
Currently, GOES satellite imagery shows the circulation associated
with the upper level low centered over roughly the Great Salt
Lake and slowly pushing eastward. Increasing mid to high level
cloud cover is moving in from the southwest on the leading edge of
the trough, while low level cumulus clouds can be seen streaming
from southeast to northwest. Flow in each level will contribute
significant moistening of the atmosphere over the next 12 hours.
PWAT is expected to increase from around one quarter inch this
morning (0.28" on the 12z DEN sounding) to about 0.5 to 0.7" east
of the Laramie range by 09z Monday. Radar shows some showers
popping up over the higher terrain in SE Wyoming and N Colorado,
but no lightning has been detected yet with these. As the surface
cyclone strengthens over SE Colorado and advects more low level
moisture northward, some weak elevated instability may develop in
NE Colorado and then drift to the north-northeast, potentially
creeping into our southern areas. Instability is more limited in
our area, but some MUCAPE around 100 to 500 J/kg could be present
in the SE Corner of the CWA including roughly Cheyenne to
Scottsbluff to Alliance and points south. Thus, isolated elevated
convection that develops to our south could bring some lightning
and small hail late this evening, mainly between about 02z and
09z, although thunder may remain possible in the Sidney area
through Monday.
Overnight, we transition to the stratiform side of the system. The
deepening 700-mb low will lead to substantial warm air and
moisture advection from the south. Models show excellent lift
associated with isentropic upglide on top of the moist upslope
easterly flow at the surface. The best lift appears likely to
occur between about 09z and 15z, after which time the 700-mb low
drifting off of the Rockies will reduce the warm air advection in
the lower free troposphere, while the surface winds simultaneously
turn more northerly. However, with a good clear lifting mechanism
and sounding showing deep saturation throughout the column, we
have high confidence in substantial total liquid precipitation.
Liquid totals of one half inch or more are likely for points east
of roughly I-25 and south of roughly US-20. There is also upside
potential for an area of more than one inch of precip. Hires
guidance continues to be rather aggressive, showing up to 1.5"
liquid precipitation in an area centered around a west to east
line from about Wheatland to Alliance. Odds are lower that this
high end scenario occurs, but certainly remains a possibility
considering the strong lift and deep saturation. With low level
easterly flow, liquid totals are expected to drop off
significantly heading west of the Laramie range, with most spots
receiving less than one quarter inch of liquid, though the Snowy
range could receive more.
While confidence is high in liquid totals, the precipitation type
remains uncertain. This system will not be wrapping in very much
cold air. Forecast 700-mb temperatures range from about -3 to
-5C, although hires models differ in the extent of the cold air at
the surface. The HRRR remains the most bullish on cold and snow,
transitioning KCYS to snow shortly after midnight. The current
forecast reflects a scenario on the colder side of guidance but
not as cold as the HRRR. Leaning towards a slushy 1-3 inches in
the higher elevations including the Cheyenne and Pine ridges,
with less than an inch elsewhere. The most likely spot for travel
impacts is the I-80 summit, where the higher elevation could
result in precipitation falling as mostly snow, but QPF totals
are more uncertain in this area. Winter weather advisories were
considered for the I-80 summit in the south Laramie range as well
as the Snowy range, but don`t quite have the confidence to go
with it at this time. The colder and snowier scenario remains
possible, which would lead to 3 to 6 inches over a more
widespread area and possible travel impacts. The key signal to
watch for will be a changeover to snow occurring several hours
before sunrise rather than around or shortly after sunrise as is
currently expected. We will be watching the progression of this
system closely to see if this scenario starts to become more
likely as we head into the evening and overnight hours.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 355 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022
Key Impact Messages:
1) Another healthy mixed precipitation generating system likely late
Tuesday night into early Thursday across southeast Wyoming and
Nebraska Panhandle. Cooler and blustery conditions Wednesday appear
probable with High Plains rain and mountain snow. Will need to
monitor snow levels for possible localized travel impacts west of
the Laramie range.
2) Drier spell and nice warm up late week into early weekend but
breezy. Pacific cold front appears likely late Saturday to Sunday
with next round of precipitation and cooler temperatures.
Weather Details: On the heals of the Sunday/Monday shortwave trough
will be another, more potent closed low shifting across the Central
Rockies into WY/CO by mid-week. Multi-model guidance with temporal
consistency points to a moderate confidence of another round of
precipitation likely Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night to
early Thursday. However, nuances in H5-H7 closed low positioning
with GFS farther north and faster with lower theta-e post frontal
dry slotting the region moreso then farther south and slower
ECMWF that highlights higher precipitation totals. Despite these
variations and lack of consistent precipitation timing in the
larger envelope, overall totals are not too dissimilar. All in
all, the moisture will be quite welcomed. Temperature profiles
during this time frame will support High Plains rain and mountain
snows. Will need to monitor for possible impacts along I-80 west
of the Laramie Range during this time if colder solutions are
realized. Shortwave ridging will quickly move in late Thursday
through Friday as H7-H5 flow becomes more zonal. H7 temperatures
moderate from -4C Wednesday to +5C to +8C Friday and +6C to +10C
Saturday ahead of another likely Pacific cold front late Saturday
to early Sunday with another round of precipitation. These two
rounds, plus the one over the next 24 hours will lead to above
normal precipitation for the region and assist with some
improvement of drought conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022
Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins until 12Z, then IFR until 17Z, then
VFR. Wind gusts to 25 knots until 03Z.
VFR at Laramie until 05Z, then MVFR until 07Z, then IFR until 18Z,
then MVFR. Wind gusts to 35 knots until 03Z, and to 23 knots from
05Z to 07Z.
VFR at Cheyenne until 06Z, then IFR until 18Z, then MVFR. Wind
gusts to 28 knots until 06Z.
Nebraska TAFS...VFR at Chadron and Alliance until 09Z, then MVFR
until 14Z, then IFR until 19Z, then MVFR.
VFR at Scottsbluff until 06Z, then MVFR until 11Z, then IFR until
20Z, then MVFR. Wind gusts to 28 knots until 03Z.
VFR at Sidney until 06Z, then MVFR until 10Z, then IFR until 18Z,
then MVFR. Wind gusts to 27 knots until 08Z, and to 25 knots from
14Z to 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022
Minimal fire concerns over the next several days with frequent
precipitation opportunities and cooler temperatures expected.
Widespread precipitation is expected along and east of the Laramie
range tonight through Monday. Precipitation will likely start as
rain and then transition to snow for areas above about 4 kft,
although precise snow levels and transition timing remain
uncertain.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...JSA
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1050 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022
The most intense convection at this hour associated with supercells
across Mexico where the highest severe weather potential is greatest
could still congeal into a complex but this activity may generally
slip into our far most southwestern counties or just south of our
CWA completely. Activity further north that slips west to east into
the rest of the region through the overnight will consist of showers
and elevated convection as the 00Z KDRT sounding showed capping at
700 mb with moisture above the cap. There is enough instability
aloft for where the elevated convection could see updrafts grow and
still be able to produce small to marginally severe hail and locally
moderate to heavy rainfall. The earlier tornado watch across Val
Verde County was allowed to expired.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022
Adjusted the timing and PoPs for possible convection from tonight
into Monday given latest radar trends and convective allowing model
guidance. While several convective allowing model guidance members
continue to support the potential for a convective complex moving
west to east across the region, it seems to have been delayed a
little more with timing, possibly now impacting overnight through
the morning rush hour. If this complex does advance across the
region, the trends continue to suggest the potential for strong to
severe storms across the region in the current slight risk on the
convective outlook from SPC. Trends also continue to suggest for
activity to diminish in intensity as the complex moves towards and
across the I-35 corridor.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022
Afternoon surface observations show the front that brought storms to
the Edwards Plateau and parts of Williamson and Travis County
yesterday afternoon now lifting well north of our area as a warm
front. This has allowed a resurgence of moisture into the Hill
Country where dew points in the mid 60s to lower 70s prevail once
more. Satellite shows cloud cover across much of the Edwards Plateau
and Rio Grande PLains this afternoon while the I-35 corridor and
eastward is a mix of clouds and sun. GOES-16 Water Vapor shows the
large upper trough just to the northwest of the Four Corners region,
with the shortwave that will be the focus of the short term entering
Texas. Radar shows a few spotty showers within the cloud cover to
the west and some warm air advection showers and thunderstorms along
the I-10 corridor from La Grange eastward.
Now that the stage is set with what is currently going on lets
discuss the rest of the afternoon into the overnight hours. By 4 to
6 pm storms should be developing across not just West Texas, but the
Serranias del Burro and other mountains in Mexico. The atmosphere
across West Texas is primed for supercells and especially for big
hail. Model forecast soundings show anywhere from 3000-4000 j/KG of
CAPE, mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km, and sufficient shear (25
knots 0-1 km and 50 knots 0-6 km) to sustain cells across West
Texas. There is good model consensus that some of these storms will
form into a complex and impact areas along the Rio Grande Plains
between 7pm and 11pm this evening. These areas are under a Marginal
to Slight risk of severe storms from the Storm Prediction Center.
Again, large hail will be the main threat, but damaging thunderstorm
winds, and possibly an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out either.
While there is higher confidence in this southern complex of storms
it should be noted that the ARW and NSSL WRF both show a northern
complex or line of storms that move out of the northern Hill Country
from San Angelo to Mason and into our Hill Country counties and
possibly the Austin area between 3 am and 6 am. Some earlier runs of
the HRRR had hinted at this as well, but now show that complex
generally weakening. Even though the northern complex is a bit lower
confidence it has a greater potential to impact more populated areas
during the late overnight and even into the morning rush hour time.
Convective parameters are much weaker along the I-35 corridor (500-
1000 j/KG of CAPE, 20 knots of shear, and lower lapse rates). This
should mean that storms will generally be weakening the further east
they get overnight and into the early morning hours. So as a recap
the NAM/FV3/Texas Tech WRF focus primarily on the southern Rio
Grande Complex, the HRRR shows the southern complex and a dying
northern complex, while the ARW and NSSL WRF hit on both the
northern and southern complex of storms overnight into tomorrow
morning. The ARW actually keeps scattered showers and thunderstorms
around until mid-day on Monday, while the rest of the mesoscale
models have storms completely dying out or exiting to the east of
the area by 9 am tomorrow morning.
For the day on Monday the shortwave should be moving to the east of
Texas by mid-day, with the base of the large upper trough moving
into the Central Plains with the bulk of the energy over Oklahoma.
While there is a low chance of an isolated shower or storm tomorrow
afternoon as the trough moves overhead most of the mesoscale models
are completely dry across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022
On Tuesday, a weak frontal boundary will attempt to work its way
southward into the the northern Hill Country by early to mid
afternoon. With surface heating ramping up, expect this boundary to
stall out right on our border with SJT and FWD, with a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms developing. The GFS is the most bullish,
firing off a complex of thunderstorms along this boundary as it
slides south, with the ECM being notably muted in its depiction of
convective activity along the boundary. Will take the middle ground
at this time and side closer to the GFS as the NBM came in dry.
Thinking there remains a threat for isolated storms, some of which
could be strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds
possible. 0-6km bulk shear should be on the order of 25-35 kts, and
despite the possibility of a weak capping inversion, the frontal
boundary and modest bouyancy should result in that threat for a
strong storm or two if they do indeed materialize.
Wednesday and Thursday will likely be the most active days of the
upcoming week, as mid-level winds turn southwesterly as a trough
digs southward into the central Rockies. At least 1 500 mb shortwave
will slide through sometime Wednesday afternoon followed by a
secondary, perhaps even stronger shortwave swinging through on
Thursday evening. With steep mid-level lapse rates in the 7.5-8.0
C/km range, MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg, and deep layer shear of 30-40 kts,
think that scattered strong to perhaps severe storms will be possible
once again, especially over the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill
Country and Rio Grande Plains on Wednesday evening, followed by the
I-35 corridor late Thursday. With the GEFS and ECM Ensembles
depicting PWATS some 1-2 SDs above normal, locally heavy rainfall
that could lead to some flooding will be possible in the heaviest
storms, especially those that can maintain a longer residence time or
maintain a slow forward motion/backbuilding effect.
Late Friday into next weekend, shortwave ridging looks to setup over
South-Central Texas, and in combination with 850mb temps of 23-28 C,
expecting a toasty second weekend of May with widespread 90s and some
spots in the triple digits out west.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022
VFR conditions continue early this evening under a mix of sun and
clouds as all convection remains north and west at this time. This
looks to potentially change later tonight and through the overnight
where a possible storm complex advances across portions of South-
Central Texas from west to east with a gradual weakening trend with
approach towards the I-35 corridor. KDRT is most likely for flight
impacts with -TSRA inserted into the TAF beginning at 02Z. With the
confidence lowering furthest east, the San Antonio sites (KSAT and
KSSF) will have -SHRA and VCTS beginning at 06Z while KAUS has a
PROB30 group for -TSRA beginning at 09Z. Outside the convective
potential, expect for ceilings and visibility at times to lower to
MVFR to IFR levels during the overnight into Monday morning. The
storm chances will diminish into Monday morning and VFR flight
conditions return Monday morning into Monday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 72 86 71 88 / 30 30 10 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 86 71 88 / 30 30 10 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 87 71 91 / 40 30 10 10
Burnet Muni Airport 70 83 70 88 / 20 30 10 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 72 90 71 94 / 60 30 0 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 71 84 71 88 / 20 30 10 20
Hondo Muni Airport 71 87 70 93 / 50 30 10 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 71 86 71 90 / 30 30 10 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 88 73 91 / 20 20 10 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 72 85 71 90 / 40 30 10 0
Stinson Muni Airport 73 88 74 94 / 40 30 10 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Morris
Aviation...Brady
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
529 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022
Tonight...at the beginning of the period (00z), scattered
thunderstorms are expected across Cheyenne county (CO), Wallace,
Greeley and maybe Wichita counties...just ahead of a 90kt 300mb jet
max and some moisture in the 700-500mb layer and near the nose of
some surface instability. Some of these thunderstorms could be
severe. Through midnight, an axis of elevated instability resides
from Yuma county to Sherman and Greeley counties west. The 90kt
300mb upper jet noses into this instability axis with a closed low
over northwest Colorado. Great moisture and lift with upper jet
divergence across the entire forecast area to support likely to
categorical pops for showers and thunderstorms. Cant rule out some
hail up to half dollar size or so near the instability axis
mentioned above which is in line with the HRRR max hail size
forecast. After midnight, the upper low moves toward the Palmer
Divide with the elevated instability axis shifting east to a Yuma to
Colby and Gove line east. Good moisture, lift and upper jet support
to continue categorical pops along/north of the interstate. Stratus
and fog are also expected to develop after midnight producing some
reduced visibilities. Low temperatures are expected to range from
the upper 30s to lower 40s in far eastern Colorado to the lower to
upper 40s elsewhere across the area.
Monday-Monday night...the upper level low pressure center is
forecast to move over the forecast area then toward Grand Island, NE
by the end of the day. Overnight, its expected to move northeast
into Iowa. The surface low is expected to be over southeast
Colorado/southwest Kansas border at 12z Monday, moving east into
southeast/south central Kansas by the end of the day. A 1019mb
surface high moves in from the northwest producing a rather tight
pressure gradient across the area through the day. Wind gusts up to
45 mph are expected, mainly along and west of the CO/KS border in
the afternoon. Abundant cloud cover is expected in the morning
with stratus and fog as well as rain, mainly along and north of
the interstate. During the afternoon, cloud cover breaks a bit
across the southwest 1/2 of the area while to the northeast clouds
and rain continue. As a result, the coolest daytime highs will be
along and north of the interstate with lower 40s to around 50
expected while to the south lower 50s to middle 60s are expected.
A 1018-1020mb surface high moves over the area during the night
allowing for much lighter winds and low temperatures in the middle
20s to around 30 in far eastern Colorado, upper 20s to middle 30s
along/east of the CO/KS border. If stratus and fog develop as
suggested by the NAM/GFS boundary layer relative humidity
forecasts we may have low temperatures not as cold as currently
expected.
Tuesday-Tuesday night...our attention turns to another closed upper
level low which is expected to reach southwest Wyoming by the end of
the day, then over the Colorado/Wyoming Continental Divide area
overnight. Dry conditions are expected during the day with a chance
of rain showers during the night. High temperatures are expected to
be in the middle 50s to middle 60s with low temperatures in the
middle 30s to lower 40s. Breezy to windy southeast winds are
expected in the afternoon, mainly along and west of the CO/KS
border.
Wednesday...the upper level low is forecast to move over the area
during the day with high chance to likely pops for showers and maybe
a thunderstorm. High temperatures are expected to be in the middle
50s to lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022
Upper low will start pulling away from the area on Thursday, with
some lingering wraparound showers through the day. Precipitation
could end early in the day if the models continue to trend faster
with the upper low. Temperatures will be in the 60s with breezy
north winds. Precipitation should end by Thursday night with lows
currently forecast in the upper 30s.
Shortwave ridging will briefly move over the area on Friday with
dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Highs currently forecast
in the upper 70s. Elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions possible mainly in northeast Colorado where afternoon
humidity drops below 20 percent and breezy northwest winds
develop. Upper flow turns southwest on Saturday ahead of the next
system digging into the Great Basin. Winds will increase to breezy
or windy out of the south by Saturday afternoon with temperatures
warming into the 80s. Another day of elevated or critical fire
weather will be possible in northeast Colorado and possibly
further east into Kansas and Nebraska. Precipitation chances will
return to the area on Sunday as the next trough approaches the
Rockies. Still some timing differences with the faster GFS more
aggressive with precipitation compared to the slower ECMWF. The
GFS also shows a frontal boundary in the area, but only very
limited instability along/north of it. At this point in the
forecast at least, severe storms appear unlikely, despite the
presence of very strong deep layer shear of 50 kts or more.
Temperatures for Sunday a bit tricky given the possibility of a
front bisecting the area, but appear to remain above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 515 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022
A strong surface low pressure system develops over southeast
Colorado and northeast New Mexico tonight and moves into the Texas
panhandle region during the day on Monday before lifting out
across the plains Monday evening. The corresponding upper low
moves across eastern Colorado tonight, across northwest Kansas
during the day on Monday, and into south central Nebraska by
Monday evening. With plenty of lift associated with the low
pressure system and moisture moving into the area in the easterly
near surface flow, expect a period of thunderstorms this evening
into the early overnight hours followed by showers with low clouds
and visibility that continue through much of the day on Monday
across the central High Plains region.
GLD will be VFR through 09Z. By 09Z, conditions will become IFR
with ceilings below 1kft with LIFR to VLIFR between 12-22Z with a
combination of low ceilings and visibilities that is back up to
IFR after 22Z. Thunderstorms move into the vicinity after 03Z and
become more numerous between 05-09Z. Light rain showers will
continue after 09Z and dissipate by 18Z.
MCK will be VFR through 10Z before dropping to IFR due to low
ceilings that persist through the day on Monday. Thunderstorms
move into the vicinity after 04Z and become more numerous between
07-10Z. Light rain showers will continue after 12Z and dissipate
by 22Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
931 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 928 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022
West TX convection continues to track east, and have noted some
recent development across southwest OK over the past couple of
hours. This activity will continue to gradually expand in coverage
overnight as the low-level jet strengthens and translates east,
with showers/storms impacting portions of eastern OK toward 07-08Z.
Elevated instability may be sufficient to support a few strong to
severe storms during the late night hours.
Tweaked timing of storms some based on current radar trends and
recent HRRR output.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022
Severe weather potential remains the main concern for Monday,
along with locally heavy rainfall. Widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday morning, with
most guidance signaling a decrease from west to east during the
morning into afternoon. Will eventually see unstable warm sector
spread back north across eastern OK and eventually western AR
later Monday, though there remains much uncertainty with the
degree of eventual destabilization to the east of a sharpening
dry line, and how much mid level warming might occur. Tough call
as to what scenario is most likely at this point, but there
remains potential for supercell storms to develop near sfc triple
point late Monday afternoon, with favorable shear for higher end
severe weather with any such storms into the early evening.
Higher confidence remains in storms developing along surging cold
front late Monday evening across northeast OK and northwest AR,
with possible MCS development and enhanced severe wind threat.
Low level shear and instability continue to support chances of
severe weather with any storms through much of Monday night, with
heavy rainfall also possible.
More stable air returns Tuesday with a break in storm chances
before the next system comes down the pike for Wednesday. Still
lots of uncertainty during this period with timing and eventual
expansion of the warm sector. Wed/Wed night does offer potential
for more widespread rainfall with the cumulative effect possibly
leading to increased flooding concerns for some areas. The severe
threat Wed remains highly contingent on the warm front position.
Shower and thunderstorm chances may linger to some degree
Thursday, with dry conditions most likely prevailing Friday-
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022
VFR conditions will continue through this evening and most of the
night before some changes arrive. A complex of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to move across the region early tomorrow
morning before exiting by late morning to early afternoon.
MVFR/IFR conditions are likely tomorrow morning, especially in
heavier thunderstorms where occasional LIFR conditions could
occur. CIGS will most likely remain at least MVFR until possibly
scattering some by the very end of the period for Oklahoma sites.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 57 75 52 69 / 90 80 80 10
FSM 58 75 61 74 / 70 90 90 20
MLC 61 77 55 71 / 80 90 80 10
BVO 54 73 51 68 / 80 90 80 0
FYV 55 72 56 70 / 50 100 90 20
BYV 53 70 57 68 / 20 90 90 20
MKO 57 74 53 68 / 80 90 80 10
MIO 53 70 52 67 / 60 90 90 10
F10 59 76 52 68 / 80 90 70 10
HHW 62 79 61 76 / 70 70 70 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04