Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/02/22

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
803 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022 .UPDATE... Updated forecast as rainfall has moved further east than expected with measurable precipitation falling across south central Montana. Followed RAP precipitation trends. borsum && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Monday night... Upper low was sitting over northern Utah and will move eastward tonight. Upper divergence around the low has allowed showers to fill in over most of western and central zones. Showers will continue early this evening and then gradually dissipate as the low moves east and weakens. Snow levels were on the order of 6500 feet, so not expecting much wet snow in the foothills below 6000 feet but would not be surprised to see some wet snowflakes this evening before things wind down in the higher hills. Monday and Monday evening should be on the dry side between systems. Temperatures on Monday will be able to reach seasonal levels with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A strong upper low will then drop into southern Idaho Monday evening and this will spread clouds and increasing chances of precipitation into western zones Monday night. This system still looks on the mild side, with freezing levels around 7000 feet Monday evening. Snow levels fall quickly toward Tuesday morning and this may allow some of the rain to change to wet snow down to around 5000 feet, so this will have to watched closely. Models have moved the system farther north and this means precipitation potential looks much better than previous runs and the amount fo QPF being produced by the models has jumped significantly. This is something that will have to watch closely with the next few model runs. TWH Tuesday through Sunday... An upper low crossing Northern Wyoming will bring showers to the region on Tuesday, with showers lingering across north central Wyoming and southeastern Montana through Wednesday morning. Expected to see numerous showers over south central MT and WY and scattered showers over southeast MT. Showers along the eastern Montana border look to become more isolated as proceed northward. Rain is expected for lower elevations, including lower foothills, with snow above 7000 feet for the Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy Mountains and above 7000-8500 feet for the Bighorn Mountains. The NBM shows the probability of at least 0.1 inch precipitation is greater than 50 percent over south central MT and north central WY and less than 50 percent over southeast MT. The probability of at least 0.5 inch precipitation ranges from 0 over southeast MT to 20-40 percent over the lower elevations of south central MT and north central WY to over 50 percent in the mountains. The probabilities indicate that the precipitation forecast is still a bit uncertain at this time especially in the Billings to Sheridan corridor where amounts will be greater to the southwest and lesser to northeast. Snowfall amounts for this system look to reach 3-10 inches in the Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy Mountains and 2-4 inches in the Bighorn Mountains. There is also a slight chance of a thunderstorm over north central WY from some weak instability. Additionally, we will have to watch closely for cooling conditions and lowering snow levels. Recent soundings for Livingston indicate rapidly cooling temperatures with onset of precip Monday night, and precip turning quickly to snow (further evidence of some uncertainty). Showers look to diminish from northwest to southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper low weakens and moves farther away from the region. Showers may linger in extreme southeast Montana through Wednesday afternoon. Skies will become mostly clear from northwest to southeast during this time as well. Temps will climb readily in west and central zones on Wednesday, as upper ridging builds into the region. Ridging will prevail through the day Thursday, for another dry and warmer day. A weak cold front, radiating off an upper low crossing central Canada, will swing through the area Friday. This should bring another chance for isolated to scattered showers across much of the region. Isolated thunder will again be a possibility, especially across central zones during the heat of the day. The greatest impact of this disturbance is to flatten the ridge. Upper level flow becomes west/southwesterly Friday night with the approach of the next broad Pacific trough, becoming more southwesterly Saturday. This pattern should bring in cooler air aloft. Instability will increase and favor scattered showers and thunderstorms for Saturday, as a shortwave trough brings stronger dynamics over our area. Mean cyclonic flow persist across the region Sunday, bringing continues shower potential. Recent models, however, signal potential for splitting flow, so precip chances may be somewhat limited. High temperatures will generally be in the 50s and 60s Tuesday and Wednesday, then 60s and 70s Thursday through Saturday. Widespread 50s are expected for Sunday, with a few 40s west. Gilstad/RMS && .AVIATION... Clouds and showers will cause MVFR conditions over much of western and central terminals (from KBIL west). These conditions will improve to widespread VFR this evening as the system causing the precipitation moves away. Mountains will be obscured. TWH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 039/063 041/055 041/067 044/076 051/074 049/069 042/057 60/B 36/R 41/B 00/B 12/T 25/T 45/R LVM 036/061 039/050 037/063 040/072 045/068 045/060 035/050 61/N 78/R 51/B 01/B 23/R 36/T 55/O HDN 038/065 040/060 041/066 041/076 048/075 047/071 041/059 50/B 15/R 42/R 00/B 12/R 24/T 54/R MLS 041/061 039/061 040/063 042/074 049/074 049/073 044/059 40/N 02/R 21/B 00/U 11/B 23/T 44/R 4BQ 040/058 038/062 042/059 041/072 049/073 048/073 043/057 50/B 02/R 33/R 00/U 01/B 12/R 43/R BHK 037/057 034/057 038/058 038/069 046/072 047/071 042/057 20/N 01/N 21/B 00/U 01/B 12/R 44/R SHR 036/060 038/058 040/059 038/072 044/072 045/071 038/055 52/W 26/T 64/R 10/U 02/R 14/T 55/R && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
530 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 355 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022 The main focus of the short term forecast remains the widespread precipitation event expected tonight through Monday. The key points are as follows: * High confidence that widespread substantial precipitation will fall along and east of the Laramie range. * Low to medium confidence in the extent and timing of the potential transition to snow. This event can be split into two phases, with the initial spring time shower phase beginning this afternoon through the night, and then transitioning to a more stratiform wintry event by the morning. Currently, GOES satellite imagery shows the circulation associated with the upper level low centered over roughly the Great Salt Lake and slowly pushing eastward. Increasing mid to high level cloud cover is moving in from the southwest on the leading edge of the trough, while low level cumulus clouds can be seen streaming from southeast to northwest. Flow in each level will contribute significant moistening of the atmosphere over the next 12 hours. PWAT is expected to increase from around one quarter inch this morning (0.28" on the 12z DEN sounding) to about 0.5 to 0.7" east of the Laramie range by 09z Monday. Radar shows some showers popping up over the higher terrain in SE Wyoming and N Colorado, but no lightning has been detected yet with these. As the surface cyclone strengthens over SE Colorado and advects more low level moisture northward, some weak elevated instability may develop in NE Colorado and then drift to the north-northeast, potentially creeping into our southern areas. Instability is more limited in our area, but some MUCAPE around 100 to 500 J/kg could be present in the SE Corner of the CWA including roughly Cheyenne to Scottsbluff to Alliance and points south. Thus, isolated elevated convection that develops to our south could bring some lightning and small hail late this evening, mainly between about 02z and 09z, although thunder may remain possible in the Sidney area through Monday. Overnight, we transition to the stratiform side of the system. The deepening 700-mb low will lead to substantial warm air and moisture advection from the south. Models show excellent lift associated with isentropic upglide on top of the moist upslope easterly flow at the surface. The best lift appears likely to occur between about 09z and 15z, after which time the 700-mb low drifting off of the Rockies will reduce the warm air advection in the lower free troposphere, while the surface winds simultaneously turn more northerly. However, with a good clear lifting mechanism and sounding showing deep saturation throughout the column, we have high confidence in substantial total liquid precipitation. Liquid totals of one half inch or more are likely for points east of roughly I-25 and south of roughly US-20. There is also upside potential for an area of more than one inch of precip. Hires guidance continues to be rather aggressive, showing up to 1.5" liquid precipitation in an area centered around a west to east line from about Wheatland to Alliance. Odds are lower that this high end scenario occurs, but certainly remains a possibility considering the strong lift and deep saturation. With low level easterly flow, liquid totals are expected to drop off significantly heading west of the Laramie range, with most spots receiving less than one quarter inch of liquid, though the Snowy range could receive more. While confidence is high in liquid totals, the precipitation type remains uncertain. This system will not be wrapping in very much cold air. Forecast 700-mb temperatures range from about -3 to -5C, although hires models differ in the extent of the cold air at the surface. The HRRR remains the most bullish on cold and snow, transitioning KCYS to snow shortly after midnight. The current forecast reflects a scenario on the colder side of guidance but not as cold as the HRRR. Leaning towards a slushy 1-3 inches in the higher elevations including the Cheyenne and Pine ridges, with less than an inch elsewhere. The most likely spot for travel impacts is the I-80 summit, where the higher elevation could result in precipitation falling as mostly snow, but QPF totals are more uncertain in this area. Winter weather advisories were considered for the I-80 summit in the south Laramie range as well as the Snowy range, but don`t quite have the confidence to go with it at this time. The colder and snowier scenario remains possible, which would lead to 3 to 6 inches over a more widespread area and possible travel impacts. The key signal to watch for will be a changeover to snow occurring several hours before sunrise rather than around or shortly after sunrise as is currently expected. We will be watching the progression of this system closely to see if this scenario starts to become more likely as we head into the evening and overnight hours. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 355 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022 Key Impact Messages: 1) Another healthy mixed precipitation generating system likely late Tuesday night into early Thursday across southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle. Cooler and blustery conditions Wednesday appear probable with High Plains rain and mountain snow. Will need to monitor snow levels for possible localized travel impacts west of the Laramie range. 2) Drier spell and nice warm up late week into early weekend but breezy. Pacific cold front appears likely late Saturday to Sunday with next round of precipitation and cooler temperatures. Weather Details: On the heals of the Sunday/Monday shortwave trough will be another, more potent closed low shifting across the Central Rockies into WY/CO by mid-week. Multi-model guidance with temporal consistency points to a moderate confidence of another round of precipitation likely Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night to early Thursday. However, nuances in H5-H7 closed low positioning with GFS farther north and faster with lower theta-e post frontal dry slotting the region moreso then farther south and slower ECMWF that highlights higher precipitation totals. Despite these variations and lack of consistent precipitation timing in the larger envelope, overall totals are not too dissimilar. All in all, the moisture will be quite welcomed. Temperature profiles during this time frame will support High Plains rain and mountain snows. Will need to monitor for possible impacts along I-80 west of the Laramie Range during this time if colder solutions are realized. Shortwave ridging will quickly move in late Thursday through Friday as H7-H5 flow becomes more zonal. H7 temperatures moderate from -4C Wednesday to +5C to +8C Friday and +6C to +10C Saturday ahead of another likely Pacific cold front late Saturday to early Sunday with another round of precipitation. These two rounds, plus the one over the next 24 hours will lead to above normal precipitation for the region and assist with some improvement of drought conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 522 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022 Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins until 12Z, then IFR until 17Z, then VFR. Wind gusts to 25 knots until 03Z. VFR at Laramie until 05Z, then MVFR until 07Z, then IFR until 18Z, then MVFR. Wind gusts to 35 knots until 03Z, and to 23 knots from 05Z to 07Z. VFR at Cheyenne until 06Z, then IFR until 18Z, then MVFR. Wind gusts to 28 knots until 06Z. Nebraska TAFS...VFR at Chadron and Alliance until 09Z, then MVFR until 14Z, then IFR until 19Z, then MVFR. VFR at Scottsbluff until 06Z, then MVFR until 11Z, then IFR until 20Z, then MVFR. Wind gusts to 28 knots until 03Z. VFR at Sidney until 06Z, then MVFR until 10Z, then IFR until 18Z, then MVFR. Wind gusts to 27 knots until 08Z, and to 25 knots from 14Z to 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 355 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022 Minimal fire concerns over the next several days with frequent precipitation opportunities and cooler temperatures expected. Widespread precipitation is expected along and east of the Laramie range tonight through Monday. Precipitation will likely start as rain and then transition to snow for areas above about 4 kft, although precise snow levels and transition timing remain uncertain. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...JSA AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...MN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1050 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 The most intense convection at this hour associated with supercells across Mexico where the highest severe weather potential is greatest could still congeal into a complex but this activity may generally slip into our far most southwestern counties or just south of our CWA completely. Activity further north that slips west to east into the rest of the region through the overnight will consist of showers and elevated convection as the 00Z KDRT sounding showed capping at 700 mb with moisture above the cap. There is enough instability aloft for where the elevated convection could see updrafts grow and still be able to produce small to marginally severe hail and locally moderate to heavy rainfall. The earlier tornado watch across Val Verde County was allowed to expired. && .UPDATE... Issued at 735 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 Adjusted the timing and PoPs for possible convection from tonight into Monday given latest radar trends and convective allowing model guidance. While several convective allowing model guidance members continue to support the potential for a convective complex moving west to east across the region, it seems to have been delayed a little more with timing, possibly now impacting overnight through the morning rush hour. If this complex does advance across the region, the trends continue to suggest the potential for strong to severe storms across the region in the current slight risk on the convective outlook from SPC. Trends also continue to suggest for activity to diminish in intensity as the complex moves towards and across the I-35 corridor. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 Afternoon surface observations show the front that brought storms to the Edwards Plateau and parts of Williamson and Travis County yesterday afternoon now lifting well north of our area as a warm front. This has allowed a resurgence of moisture into the Hill Country where dew points in the mid 60s to lower 70s prevail once more. Satellite shows cloud cover across much of the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande PLains this afternoon while the I-35 corridor and eastward is a mix of clouds and sun. GOES-16 Water Vapor shows the large upper trough just to the northwest of the Four Corners region, with the shortwave that will be the focus of the short term entering Texas. Radar shows a few spotty showers within the cloud cover to the west and some warm air advection showers and thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor from La Grange eastward. Now that the stage is set with what is currently going on lets discuss the rest of the afternoon into the overnight hours. By 4 to 6 pm storms should be developing across not just West Texas, but the Serranias del Burro and other mountains in Mexico. The atmosphere across West Texas is primed for supercells and especially for big hail. Model forecast soundings show anywhere from 3000-4000 j/KG of CAPE, mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km, and sufficient shear (25 knots 0-1 km and 50 knots 0-6 km) to sustain cells across West Texas. There is good model consensus that some of these storms will form into a complex and impact areas along the Rio Grande Plains between 7pm and 11pm this evening. These areas are under a Marginal to Slight risk of severe storms from the Storm Prediction Center. Again, large hail will be the main threat, but damaging thunderstorm winds, and possibly an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out either. While there is higher confidence in this southern complex of storms it should be noted that the ARW and NSSL WRF both show a northern complex or line of storms that move out of the northern Hill Country from San Angelo to Mason and into our Hill Country counties and possibly the Austin area between 3 am and 6 am. Some earlier runs of the HRRR had hinted at this as well, but now show that complex generally weakening. Even though the northern complex is a bit lower confidence it has a greater potential to impact more populated areas during the late overnight and even into the morning rush hour time. Convective parameters are much weaker along the I-35 corridor (500- 1000 j/KG of CAPE, 20 knots of shear, and lower lapse rates). This should mean that storms will generally be weakening the further east they get overnight and into the early morning hours. So as a recap the NAM/FV3/Texas Tech WRF focus primarily on the southern Rio Grande Complex, the HRRR shows the southern complex and a dying northern complex, while the ARW and NSSL WRF hit on both the northern and southern complex of storms overnight into tomorrow morning. The ARW actually keeps scattered showers and thunderstorms around until mid-day on Monday, while the rest of the mesoscale models have storms completely dying out or exiting to the east of the area by 9 am tomorrow morning. For the day on Monday the shortwave should be moving to the east of Texas by mid-day, with the base of the large upper trough moving into the Central Plains with the bulk of the energy over Oklahoma. While there is a low chance of an isolated shower or storm tomorrow afternoon as the trough moves overhead most of the mesoscale models are completely dry across the area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 On Tuesday, a weak frontal boundary will attempt to work its way southward into the the northern Hill Country by early to mid afternoon. With surface heating ramping up, expect this boundary to stall out right on our border with SJT and FWD, with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms developing. The GFS is the most bullish, firing off a complex of thunderstorms along this boundary as it slides south, with the ECM being notably muted in its depiction of convective activity along the boundary. Will take the middle ground at this time and side closer to the GFS as the NBM came in dry. Thinking there remains a threat for isolated storms, some of which could be strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds possible. 0-6km bulk shear should be on the order of 25-35 kts, and despite the possibility of a weak capping inversion, the frontal boundary and modest bouyancy should result in that threat for a strong storm or two if they do indeed materialize. Wednesday and Thursday will likely be the most active days of the upcoming week, as mid-level winds turn southwesterly as a trough digs southward into the central Rockies. At least 1 500 mb shortwave will slide through sometime Wednesday afternoon followed by a secondary, perhaps even stronger shortwave swinging through on Thursday evening. With steep mid-level lapse rates in the 7.5-8.0 C/km range, MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg, and deep layer shear of 30-40 kts, think that scattered strong to perhaps severe storms will be possible once again, especially over the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and Rio Grande Plains on Wednesday evening, followed by the I-35 corridor late Thursday. With the GEFS and ECM Ensembles depicting PWATS some 1-2 SDs above normal, locally heavy rainfall that could lead to some flooding will be possible in the heaviest storms, especially those that can maintain a longer residence time or maintain a slow forward motion/backbuilding effect. Late Friday into next weekend, shortwave ridging looks to setup over South-Central Texas, and in combination with 850mb temps of 23-28 C, expecting a toasty second weekend of May with widespread 90s and some spots in the triple digits out west. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 VFR conditions continue early this evening under a mix of sun and clouds as all convection remains north and west at this time. This looks to potentially change later tonight and through the overnight where a possible storm complex advances across portions of South- Central Texas from west to east with a gradual weakening trend with approach towards the I-35 corridor. KDRT is most likely for flight impacts with -TSRA inserted into the TAF beginning at 02Z. With the confidence lowering furthest east, the San Antonio sites (KSAT and KSSF) will have -SHRA and VCTS beginning at 06Z while KAUS has a PROB30 group for -TSRA beginning at 09Z. Outside the convective potential, expect for ceilings and visibility at times to lower to MVFR to IFR levels during the overnight into Monday morning. The storm chances will diminish into Monday morning and VFR flight conditions return Monday morning into Monday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 72 86 71 88 / 30 30 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 86 71 88 / 30 30 10 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 87 71 91 / 40 30 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 70 83 70 88 / 20 30 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 90 71 94 / 60 30 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 84 71 88 / 20 30 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 71 87 70 93 / 50 30 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 86 71 90 / 30 30 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 88 73 91 / 20 20 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 85 71 90 / 40 30 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 73 88 74 94 / 40 30 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...Morris Aviation...Brady
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
529 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022 the beginning of the period (00z), scattered thunderstorms are expected across Cheyenne county (CO), Wallace, Greeley and maybe Wichita counties...just ahead of a 90kt 300mb jet max and some moisture in the 700-500mb layer and near the nose of some surface instability. Some of these thunderstorms could be severe. Through midnight, an axis of elevated instability resides from Yuma county to Sherman and Greeley counties west. The 90kt 300mb upper jet noses into this instability axis with a closed low over northwest Colorado. Great moisture and lift with upper jet divergence across the entire forecast area to support likely to categorical pops for showers and thunderstorms. Cant rule out some hail up to half dollar size or so near the instability axis mentioned above which is in line with the HRRR max hail size forecast. After midnight, the upper low moves toward the Palmer Divide with the elevated instability axis shifting east to a Yuma to Colby and Gove line east. Good moisture, lift and upper jet support to continue categorical pops along/north of the interstate. Stratus and fog are also expected to develop after midnight producing some reduced visibilities. Low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s in far eastern Colorado to the lower to upper 40s elsewhere across the area. Monday-Monday night...the upper level low pressure center is forecast to move over the forecast area then toward Grand Island, NE by the end of the day. Overnight, its expected to move northeast into Iowa. The surface low is expected to be over southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas border at 12z Monday, moving east into southeast/south central Kansas by the end of the day. A 1019mb surface high moves in from the northwest producing a rather tight pressure gradient across the area through the day. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are expected, mainly along and west of the CO/KS border in the afternoon. Abundant cloud cover is expected in the morning with stratus and fog as well as rain, mainly along and north of the interstate. During the afternoon, cloud cover breaks a bit across the southwest 1/2 of the area while to the northeast clouds and rain continue. As a result, the coolest daytime highs will be along and north of the interstate with lower 40s to around 50 expected while to the south lower 50s to middle 60s are expected. A 1018-1020mb surface high moves over the area during the night allowing for much lighter winds and low temperatures in the middle 20s to around 30 in far eastern Colorado, upper 20s to middle 30s along/east of the CO/KS border. If stratus and fog develop as suggested by the NAM/GFS boundary layer relative humidity forecasts we may have low temperatures not as cold as currently expected. Tuesday-Tuesday night...our attention turns to another closed upper level low which is expected to reach southwest Wyoming by the end of the day, then over the Colorado/Wyoming Continental Divide area overnight. Dry conditions are expected during the day with a chance of rain showers during the night. High temperatures are expected to be in the middle 50s to middle 60s with low temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Breezy to windy southeast winds are expected in the afternoon, mainly along and west of the CO/KS border. Wednesday...the upper level low is forecast to move over the area during the day with high chance to likely pops for showers and maybe a thunderstorm. High temperatures are expected to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022 Upper low will start pulling away from the area on Thursday, with some lingering wraparound showers through the day. Precipitation could end early in the day if the models continue to trend faster with the upper low. Temperatures will be in the 60s with breezy north winds. Precipitation should end by Thursday night with lows currently forecast in the upper 30s. Shortwave ridging will briefly move over the area on Friday with dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Highs currently forecast in the upper 70s. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible mainly in northeast Colorado where afternoon humidity drops below 20 percent and breezy northwest winds develop. Upper flow turns southwest on Saturday ahead of the next system digging into the Great Basin. Winds will increase to breezy or windy out of the south by Saturday afternoon with temperatures warming into the 80s. Another day of elevated or critical fire weather will be possible in northeast Colorado and possibly further east into Kansas and Nebraska. Precipitation chances will return to the area on Sunday as the next trough approaches the Rockies. Still some timing differences with the faster GFS more aggressive with precipitation compared to the slower ECMWF. The GFS also shows a frontal boundary in the area, but only very limited instability along/north of it. At this point in the forecast at least, severe storms appear unlikely, despite the presence of very strong deep layer shear of 50 kts or more. Temperatures for Sunday a bit tricky given the possibility of a front bisecting the area, but appear to remain above normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 515 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022 A strong surface low pressure system develops over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico tonight and moves into the Texas panhandle region during the day on Monday before lifting out across the plains Monday evening. The corresponding upper low moves across eastern Colorado tonight, across northwest Kansas during the day on Monday, and into south central Nebraska by Monday evening. With plenty of lift associated with the low pressure system and moisture moving into the area in the easterly near surface flow, expect a period of thunderstorms this evening into the early overnight hours followed by showers with low clouds and visibility that continue through much of the day on Monday across the central High Plains region. GLD will be VFR through 09Z. By 09Z, conditions will become IFR with ceilings below 1kft with LIFR to VLIFR between 12-22Z with a combination of low ceilings and visibilities that is back up to IFR after 22Z. Thunderstorms move into the vicinity after 03Z and become more numerous between 05-09Z. Light rain showers will continue after 09Z and dissipate by 18Z. MCK will be VFR through 10Z before dropping to IFR due to low ceilings that persist through the day on Monday. Thunderstorms move into the vicinity after 04Z and become more numerous between 07-10Z. Light rain showers will continue after 12Z and dissipate by 22Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
931 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 928 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 West TX convection continues to track east, and have noted some recent development across southwest OK over the past couple of hours. This activity will continue to gradually expand in coverage overnight as the low-level jet strengthens and translates east, with showers/storms impacting portions of eastern OK toward 07-08Z. Elevated instability may be sufficient to support a few strong to severe storms during the late night hours. Tweaked timing of storms some based on current radar trends and recent HRRR output. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 Severe weather potential remains the main concern for Monday, along with locally heavy rainfall. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday morning, with most guidance signaling a decrease from west to east during the morning into afternoon. Will eventually see unstable warm sector spread back north across eastern OK and eventually western AR later Monday, though there remains much uncertainty with the degree of eventual destabilization to the east of a sharpening dry line, and how much mid level warming might occur. Tough call as to what scenario is most likely at this point, but there remains potential for supercell storms to develop near sfc triple point late Monday afternoon, with favorable shear for higher end severe weather with any such storms into the early evening. Higher confidence remains in storms developing along surging cold front late Monday evening across northeast OK and northwest AR, with possible MCS development and enhanced severe wind threat. Low level shear and instability continue to support chances of severe weather with any storms through much of Monday night, with heavy rainfall also possible. More stable air returns Tuesday with a break in storm chances before the next system comes down the pike for Wednesday. Still lots of uncertainty during this period with timing and eventual expansion of the warm sector. Wed/Wed night does offer potential for more widespread rainfall with the cumulative effect possibly leading to increased flooding concerns for some areas. The severe threat Wed remains highly contingent on the warm front position. Shower and thunderstorm chances may linger to some degree Thursday, with dry conditions most likely prevailing Friday- Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 VFR conditions will continue through this evening and most of the night before some changes arrive. A complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move across the region early tomorrow morning before exiting by late morning to early afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions are likely tomorrow morning, especially in heavier thunderstorms where occasional LIFR conditions could occur. CIGS will most likely remain at least MVFR until possibly scattering some by the very end of the period for Oklahoma sites. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 57 75 52 69 / 90 80 80 10 FSM 58 75 61 74 / 70 90 90 20 MLC 61 77 55 71 / 80 90 80 10 BVO 54 73 51 68 / 80 90 80 0 FYV 55 72 56 70 / 50 100 90 20 BYV 53 70 57 68 / 20 90 90 20 MKO 57 74 53 68 / 80 90 80 10 MIO 53 70 52 67 / 60 90 90 10 F10 59 76 52 68 / 80 90 70 10 HHW 62 79 61 76 / 70 70 70 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...04