Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/25/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
951 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
Light snow is tapering off across the area per metars and radar
returns. NDDOT map and webcams are showing some icy conditions
across NE ND with temps in the 25 to 30 degree range causing
refreezing of wet surfaces. Will allow the winter weather advisory
to continue with impacts heightened as icy roads are more
hazardous with the threat of sliding off into ditches now swollen
with runoff and flood waters.
UPDATE Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
Went ahead and allowed the wind advisory to expire as gusts are
or will be waning shortly. Did feel it necessary to extend the
winter weather advisory with HRRR keeping the snow ongoing,
albeit, decreasing in intensity, but with upstream obs under the
radar returns down under a mile at Grafton and Cavalier and temps
below freezing am expecting roads surfaces to cool quickly with
sundown and refreezing of roads to ice up or continue to remain
icy as many NDDOT webcams indicate across NE ND. Went through
midnight and will monitor roads, radar and temps for the rest of
the evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
Continue to see band of precipitation wrapping through the area as
the main upper low is situated over northeast MN, and will
continue to lift northeastward into Ontario tonight. Have mainly
had rain across the far east with snow across the central and
west. Some wintry mixed precipitation as occurred with the snow
across the far west in periods of loss of ice introduction aloft
and deep saturation. As the low lifts northeastward, these areas
of precipitation will diminish and move gradually lift
northeastward out of the area as well. Therefore have higher pops
into early evening, with pops diminishing into the late
evening/overnight hours. Winds will begin to diminish some this
evening too as the sfc low lifts northeastward away from the area.
Currently have the winter weather advisory and wind advisory set
to expire at 7pm. Some lingering gusty winds or light
precipitation may still be possible into the evening hours.
Another upper level wave will dig southward behind the main upper
low Monday dropping through northern and eastern MN Monday into
Monday night. Some light flurries or light snow showers will be
possible across the east/northeast by Monday afternoon/evening.
Colder air will remain across the area through Monday into Monday
with temperatures expected to remain well below normal.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
Initially upper ridging will build into the central US Tuesday
into Wednesday with a warm front lifting northward across the area
Wednesday. This will allow for temperatures to warm to near normal
across the region by late this week. Mainly dry conditions are in
store for the area Tuesday into Wednesday. A small change for
light precipitation is possible as the warm front lifts northward
across the area.
A large trough will dig into the intermountain
west by late this week, with another storm system expected to lift
out of the Rockies Friday into the weekend. Precipitation chances
increase across the region Friday into Saturday. Current forecasts
would lift this system through NE, IA and into southern MN keeping
the forecast area on the cooler side of the system. However not as
much cool air currently wrapping into the system as with previous
systems the past few weeks, therefore expect mainly liquid
precipitation chances with temperatures remaining cooler than
normal. Precipitation amounts will be monitored in the coming
days regarding track variability etc, to be able to determine any
additional impacts to ongoing flooding across much of the central
and northern forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
NW winds with gusts to 35kts continue and will see better than 25kts
for much of the taf period with IFR or MVFR CIGs expected.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
Moderate to major river flooding is expected to continue through
the week. The Red Lake River has begun to crest upstream of
Crookston, with Crookston expected to crest at 28.5 feet tomorrow
afternoon. Current precipitation is unlikely to significantly
affect current flood forecasts as there haven`t been any isolated
areas of significant accumulations. The expectation is for crest
along most of the North Dakota and Minnesota tributaries to occur
over the next 24-48 hours, with the exception of the Sheyenne
River. In coordination with the RFC, the Bald Hill dam is
maintaining at 16 feet to allow time for preparations in Valley
City for the upcoming flood crest. As such, the forecast currently
accounts for rises to begin with the expected release of water
later this week.
For the Red River of the North, as the crest occurs at the Red Lake
and in the central and southern Red River (e.g. Fargo and Halstad),
crest for the Red at Grand Forks and Oslo will occur later this week
towards the early weekend. The current forecast period does not
include the crest for Drayton and Pembina, as crest is anticipated
sometime next week. At the moment, expect major flooding at all
river points at and north of Grand Forks.
For Crookston: the upper Red Lake River near Highlanding (near
Goodridge) has crested and begun to slowly wane. Other non-forecast
points upstream of the Red Lakes have also begun to turn. Due to the
early turning, the forecast height has been brought down to 28.5,
however flood of record is still forecast. Expect crest in the next
24-36 hours at Crookston.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for NDZ007-
008-015-016-026-027-029-030-054.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ001-
004-007.
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...MJB
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...Perroux
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
620 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
H5 analysis this morning had a closed low over west
central Minnesota. A trough extended to the southwest of this
feature to the Four Corners. High pressure was anchored over
northeastern Florida. A ridge extended north of this feature to
eastern Ontario and western Quebec. West of the central CONUS
trough, ridging extended from Oregon, north into western Alberta. As
of midday, satellite imagery has the closed low roughly over north
central Minnesota. At the surface, low pressure was located over
north central Minnesota this afternoon with a cold front well east
of the surface low. This front extended from the UP of Michigan,
south into the lower Ohio valley and the Arklatex. Across western
and north central Nebraska, strong northwesterly winds continued
today and gusts were strong ranging from 45 to 55 MPH this
afternoon. As of 3 PM CDT, the strongest winds were at Imperial with
a peak gust of 50 MPH. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy and some
light rain and snow showers were occurring over the Pine Ridge and
portions of the central and northwestern Sandhills. Temperatures as
of 3 PM CDT, ranged from 39 at Gordon to 57 at Imperial.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
Surface low pressure, will track northeast from the Arrowhead of
Minnesota into southern Ontario overnight with high pressure
tracking into the western Dakotas. Winds will subside somewhat
this evening but remain breezy into the overnight as a reinforcing
shot of cooler air backs into the eastern 2/3rds of the forecast
area. Both the NAMNEST and HRRR solns are in decent agreement with
their H925 and H85 winds tonight indicating sustained winds in
the 25 to 35 MPH range this evening with sustained winds of 20 to
30 MPH overnight, factor in gusts and we could see some 35 to 45
MPH gusts this evening diminishing to 25 to 35 MPH gusts
overnight. With the expected winds tonight, and even with forecast
H85 temps of -3 to -6C in the east, lows will be somewhat
"elevated" with readings in the mid to upper 20s. Winds will start
out breezy in the east Monday morning as the high tracks across
the Dakotas. By afternoon, winds will weaken in the west, and
begin to turn around to the east then southeast in the western
forecast area. Northerly winds will only diminish slightly in the
east on Monday afternoon which is concerning for fire weather
conditions. Warmer air will try to advect into the west during the
afternoon hours with highs trying to hit 60 in the west and
southwest. Elsewhere, highs will be in the middle 50s; some 5 to
10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Winds will shift to
the east then south Monday night and will remain mostly light as
the high pushes into the eastern Dakotas. Wind speeds may increase
some in the far west toward daybreak Tuesday, underneath a
developing low level jet. Lows will be coolest in the east with
readings in the mid to upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
Southerly winds will increase on Tuesday across the area as a
surface trough deepens off to the west. By afternoon, H85 winds
will reach 25 KTS in the afternoon along and east of Highway 61.
With limited low level moisture advection Tuesday, afternoon
relative humidity will fall to the 15 to 20 percent range. Low RH
along with gusty winds, may lead to near critical fire weather
conditions Tuesday afternoon, particularly south of an Oshkosh to
Bartlett line. Warm temperatures will continue into Wednesday and
Thursday. On Wednesday, a cool front will try to push into the
northern forecast area. This will lead to slightly cooler highs in
the northwest. Further south, highs will approach 80 degrees.
Once again, minimum RH will reach near critical levels Weds
afternoon south of I-80. Winds may be lighter however with the
front just off to the north, so confidence in reaching critical
fire weather conds is less compared to Tuesday. Late in the week,
a shortwave trough will track into northwestern portions of the
CONUS. As it deepens over the northern Rockies, southerly winds
will increase downstream across the central and southern plains.
This will result in low level moisture returning to the area on
Thursday. As the upper level trough approaches the high plains
Thursday night into Friday, there will be an increased threat for
precipitation across the forecast area. This threat will linger
into the weekend and will be highly dependent on the track of the
upper low. ATTM, the GFS favors a more southern track, which would
be more favorable for widespread precipitation. The EC, favors a
northern track, which would place most of the forecast area in the
dry slot. Both solns, however, do develop strong winds next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
...Powerful Spring Blizzard is exiting the nrn U.S....
MVFR ceilings are expected to persist overnight across ncntl
Nebraska affecting the area east of highway 83. VFR is expected
throughout the area by 12z...15z at the latest and VFR should
prevail thereafter. VFR is expected throughout wrn Nebraska
tonight and Monday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
932 PM MDT Sun Apr 24 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM MDT Sun Apr 24 2022
Main update this evening was to add several areas to the Winter
Weather Advisory tonight into Monday morning. These areas include:
Teller County, the southern I-25 corridor, the Wet Mountains and
Wet Mountain Valley, and lower Chaffee county.
Precip development continues to really blossom across the region
this evening, as a relatively compact but strong vort max
approaches from the west. This strong vort max will move overhead
tonight, with strong large scale ascent and deep upslope flow in
place for the central and eastern mountains, and adjacent lower
levels. This setup looks to be in place, along with an abundance
of moisture and instability, at least through the 9z time frame.
So, current trends of increasing snow coverage and intensity is
expected to continue for much of tonight and provide light to
moderate, occasionally heavy snow to these areas. Did increase
snow totals tonight for these areas, but given the setup, could
still be somewhat low in spots.
While locations have been slow to observe accumulations on area
roadways, webcams have shown a trend towards snow covered roads.
With cooling temps tonight and expected increases in snow
intensity, see no reason why this trend won`t continue. May see
this trend be delayed slightly across the southern I-25 corridor,
but with snow intensity really ramping up in this location very
late tonight into early Monday morning, anticipate area roadways
to become slippery. Snow will end from north to south through
early to mid morning as forcing/focus shift out of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Sun Apr 24 2022
Key Message:
1) Accumulating snow likely central and southeast mountains tonight
Scattered rain and snow showers have developed across the region
this afternoon, as upper level trough slides eastward into wrn CO.
Haven`t seen any cloud to ground lightning yet, though a few in
cloud flashes have been noted with some some modest convection in
Custer County earlier today, so will keep slight thunder chance
going into the evening, though coverage will be limited. Best
upward motion still forecast to arrive this evening, then gradually
shift southward toward the NM border after midnight. Model QPF
suggests liquid amounts in the quarter to half inch range over the
mountains by Monday morning, with only a tenth or two over most
valleys/I-25 corridor. Exception might be east slopes of the srn
Sangres and srn I-25 corridor from Walsenburg south to Raton Pass,
where HRRR and NAM indicate some slightly heavier amounts. Snow
level starts around 7000 feet early this evening, then falls to
around 5000 feet Monday morning. Current set of advisories look
good, as 4-8 inches look likely over the higher elevations of the
central and eastern mountains, though a good deal of melting will
occur as surface temps are still above freezing. Could see some
slushy accums on grassy areas/elevated surfaces down to around 5-6k
feet by morning, though impacts should again be limited by warm
surface temps. If the plains east of I-25 are going to get any
precip, it will likely come Monday morning as low moves east, with
areas south of the Arkansas River favored for perhaps a tenth of two
before precip ends everywhere around midday. Monday afternoon looks
cool with slowly decreasing clouds in the wake of the trough
passage, with perhaps a sprinkle/flurry over the higher peaks as
moisture lingers.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Sun Apr 24 2022
Key Messages:
1) Growing concern for more Critical Fire Weather days starting
Tuesday and continuing through Friday, with Friday the biggest
concern at this time.
Tuesday - Thursday... The start of the long term period will remain
relatively quiet weather wise, with a couple of exceptions. The GEFS
and EPS ensemble models remain in agreement through this period,
leading to better confidence in the evolution of things. Overall, a
ridging pattern is expected to develop across the central US. This
feature will be the primary influence during this period, and
synoptic descent will over spread the region. This will keep
precipitation chances low for most of southern Colorado, generally
less than 10% chance. Temperatures will also begin to warm under
this ridging pattern, with temperatures expected to be 10-20F
above average across southern Colorado. There are signals that a
weak and quick moving short wave will push eastward in the overall
westerly flow. This feature isn`t expected to be too much of an
influence on the area though, except for some isolated pockets of
precipitation along the western mountains during the day Wednesday.
There are also growing concerns of more Critical Fire Weather
conditions starting to develop over this period, as windier and
drier conditions start overspreading southern Colorado again.
Friday... The end of the work week looks to be the next chance of
more impactful weather. The ensemble models are in agreement that a
trough is likely to exist and dig southward, but to what extent,
there is still differences on. The GEFS models takes the system
further south and more over southern Colorado, while the EPS
solution takes the system further north and more into northern
Colorado. This give confidence that a storm system will exist and
impact the area in some way, but the exact impacts are still
unclear, as the storm track will play a huge role in that.
Regardless though, this overall pattern would bring increased
precipitation chances to southern Colorado, especially for the
mountains. This pattern would also bring windier conditions to the
forecast area, especially if the northern track comes to fruition.
Also with this system, more Critical Fire Weather conditions will be
possible, also especially if the more northern track becomes favored.
Saturday - Sunday... Heading into the end of the long term period, a
more zonal flow pattern is expected. This patten would keep
precipitation chances low across southern Colorado, though some
isolated precipitation can not be ruled out along the mountains.
Temperatures will also cool down, as a cold front is expected to drop
southward behind the Friday system. Temperatures will cool back down
to near or slightly above average for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Sun Apr 24 2022
Showers will continue to develop across the area late this
afternoon, with vcsh at KCOS and KPUB until 00z. Precip becomes
steadier this evening with a period of MVFR conditions at KCOS and
brief MVFR at KPUB from 00z-06z, and could see a rain/snow mix at
KCOS after sunset, though any accums will be light. Showers begin to
diminish and cigs lift by 12z Mon. At KALS, VFR cigs today and
tonight, with most shower activity staying over the mountains to the
east of the terminal. On Monday, VFR cigs at all terminals will
gradually lift through the day, with clouds scattering by late
afternoon.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for COZ058>063-072-
073-076>082.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Monday for COZ074-075-087-
088.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN