Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/25/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
951 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 948 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Light snow is tapering off across the area per metars and radar returns. NDDOT map and webcams are showing some icy conditions across NE ND with temps in the 25 to 30 degree range causing refreezing of wet surfaces. Will allow the winter weather advisory to continue with impacts heightened as icy roads are more hazardous with the threat of sliding off into ditches now swollen with runoff and flood waters. UPDATE Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Went ahead and allowed the wind advisory to expire as gusts are or will be waning shortly. Did feel it necessary to extend the winter weather advisory with HRRR keeping the snow ongoing, albeit, decreasing in intensity, but with upstream obs under the radar returns down under a mile at Grafton and Cavalier and temps below freezing am expecting roads surfaces to cool quickly with sundown and refreezing of roads to ice up or continue to remain icy as many NDDOT webcams indicate across NE ND. Went through midnight and will monitor roads, radar and temps for the rest of the evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Continue to see band of precipitation wrapping through the area as the main upper low is situated over northeast MN, and will continue to lift northeastward into Ontario tonight. Have mainly had rain across the far east with snow across the central and west. Some wintry mixed precipitation as occurred with the snow across the far west in periods of loss of ice introduction aloft and deep saturation. As the low lifts northeastward, these areas of precipitation will diminish and move gradually lift northeastward out of the area as well. Therefore have higher pops into early evening, with pops diminishing into the late evening/overnight hours. Winds will begin to diminish some this evening too as the sfc low lifts northeastward away from the area. Currently have the winter weather advisory and wind advisory set to expire at 7pm. Some lingering gusty winds or light precipitation may still be possible into the evening hours. Another upper level wave will dig southward behind the main upper low Monday dropping through northern and eastern MN Monday into Monday night. Some light flurries or light snow showers will be possible across the east/northeast by Monday afternoon/evening. Colder air will remain across the area through Monday into Monday with temperatures expected to remain well below normal. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Initially upper ridging will build into the central US Tuesday into Wednesday with a warm front lifting northward across the area Wednesday. This will allow for temperatures to warm to near normal across the region by late this week. Mainly dry conditions are in store for the area Tuesday into Wednesday. A small change for light precipitation is possible as the warm front lifts northward across the area. A large trough will dig into the intermountain west by late this week, with another storm system expected to lift out of the Rockies Friday into the weekend. Precipitation chances increase across the region Friday into Saturday. Current forecasts would lift this system through NE, IA and into southern MN keeping the forecast area on the cooler side of the system. However not as much cool air currently wrapping into the system as with previous systems the past few weeks, therefore expect mainly liquid precipitation chances with temperatures remaining cooler than normal. Precipitation amounts will be monitored in the coming days regarding track variability etc, to be able to determine any additional impacts to ongoing flooding across much of the central and northern forecast area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 NW winds with gusts to 35kts continue and will see better than 25kts for much of the taf period with IFR or MVFR CIGs expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Moderate to major river flooding is expected to continue through the week. The Red Lake River has begun to crest upstream of Crookston, with Crookston expected to crest at 28.5 feet tomorrow afternoon. Current precipitation is unlikely to significantly affect current flood forecasts as there haven`t been any isolated areas of significant accumulations. The expectation is for crest along most of the North Dakota and Minnesota tributaries to occur over the next 24-48 hours, with the exception of the Sheyenne River. In coordination with the RFC, the Bald Hill dam is maintaining at 16 feet to allow time for preparations in Valley City for the upcoming flood crest. As such, the forecast currently accounts for rises to begin with the expected release of water later this week. For the Red River of the North, as the crest occurs at the Red Lake and in the central and southern Red River (e.g. Fargo and Halstad), crest for the Red at Grand Forks and Oslo will occur later this week towards the early weekend. The current forecast period does not include the crest for Drayton and Pembina, as crest is anticipated sometime next week. At the moment, expect major flooding at all river points at and north of Grand Forks. For Crookston: the upper Red Lake River near Highlanding (near Goodridge) has crested and begun to slowly wane. Other non-forecast points upstream of the Red Lakes have also begun to turn. Due to the early turning, the forecast height has been brought down to 28.5, however flood of record is still forecast. Expect crest in the next 24-36 hours at Crookston. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for NDZ007- 008-015-016-026-027-029-030-054. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ001- 004-007. $$ UPDATE...JK SHORT TERM...MJB LONG TERM...MJB AVIATION...JK HYDROLOGY...Perroux
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
620 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 H5 analysis this morning had a closed low over west central Minnesota. A trough extended to the southwest of this feature to the Four Corners. High pressure was anchored over northeastern Florida. A ridge extended north of this feature to eastern Ontario and western Quebec. West of the central CONUS trough, ridging extended from Oregon, north into western Alberta. As of midday, satellite imagery has the closed low roughly over north central Minnesota. At the surface, low pressure was located over north central Minnesota this afternoon with a cold front well east of the surface low. This front extended from the UP of Michigan, south into the lower Ohio valley and the Arklatex. Across western and north central Nebraska, strong northwesterly winds continued today and gusts were strong ranging from 45 to 55 MPH this afternoon. As of 3 PM CDT, the strongest winds were at Imperial with a peak gust of 50 MPH. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy and some light rain and snow showers were occurring over the Pine Ridge and portions of the central and northwestern Sandhills. Temperatures as of 3 PM CDT, ranged from 39 at Gordon to 57 at Imperial. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Surface low pressure, will track northeast from the Arrowhead of Minnesota into southern Ontario overnight with high pressure tracking into the western Dakotas. Winds will subside somewhat this evening but remain breezy into the overnight as a reinforcing shot of cooler air backs into the eastern 2/3rds of the forecast area. Both the NAMNEST and HRRR solns are in decent agreement with their H925 and H85 winds tonight indicating sustained winds in the 25 to 35 MPH range this evening with sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH overnight, factor in gusts and we could see some 35 to 45 MPH gusts this evening diminishing to 25 to 35 MPH gusts overnight. With the expected winds tonight, and even with forecast H85 temps of -3 to -6C in the east, lows will be somewhat "elevated" with readings in the mid to upper 20s. Winds will start out breezy in the east Monday morning as the high tracks across the Dakotas. By afternoon, winds will weaken in the west, and begin to turn around to the east then southeast in the western forecast area. Northerly winds will only diminish slightly in the east on Monday afternoon which is concerning for fire weather conditions. Warmer air will try to advect into the west during the afternoon hours with highs trying to hit 60 in the west and southwest. Elsewhere, highs will be in the middle 50s; some 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Winds will shift to the east then south Monday night and will remain mostly light as the high pushes into the eastern Dakotas. Wind speeds may increase some in the far west toward daybreak Tuesday, underneath a developing low level jet. Lows will be coolest in the east with readings in the mid to upper 20s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Southerly winds will increase on Tuesday across the area as a surface trough deepens off to the west. By afternoon, H85 winds will reach 25 KTS in the afternoon along and east of Highway 61. With limited low level moisture advection Tuesday, afternoon relative humidity will fall to the 15 to 20 percent range. Low RH along with gusty winds, may lead to near critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon, particularly south of an Oshkosh to Bartlett line. Warm temperatures will continue into Wednesday and Thursday. On Wednesday, a cool front will try to push into the northern forecast area. This will lead to slightly cooler highs in the northwest. Further south, highs will approach 80 degrees. Once again, minimum RH will reach near critical levels Weds afternoon south of I-80. Winds may be lighter however with the front just off to the north, so confidence in reaching critical fire weather conds is less compared to Tuesday. Late in the week, a shortwave trough will track into northwestern portions of the CONUS. As it deepens over the northern Rockies, southerly winds will increase downstream across the central and southern plains. This will result in low level moisture returning to the area on Thursday. As the upper level trough approaches the high plains Thursday night into Friday, there will be an increased threat for precipitation across the forecast area. This threat will linger into the weekend and will be highly dependent on the track of the upper low. ATTM, the GFS favors a more southern track, which would be more favorable for widespread precipitation. The EC, favors a northern track, which would place most of the forecast area in the dry slot. Both solns, however, do develop strong winds next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 ...Powerful Spring Blizzard is exiting the nrn U.S.... MVFR ceilings are expected to persist overnight across ncntl Nebraska affecting the area east of highway 83. VFR is expected throughout the area by 12z...15z at the latest and VFR should prevail thereafter. VFR is expected throughout wrn Nebraska tonight and Monday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
932 PM MDT Sun Apr 24 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 920 PM MDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Main update this evening was to add several areas to the Winter Weather Advisory tonight into Monday morning. These areas include: Teller County, the southern I-25 corridor, the Wet Mountains and Wet Mountain Valley, and lower Chaffee county. Precip development continues to really blossom across the region this evening, as a relatively compact but strong vort max approaches from the west. This strong vort max will move overhead tonight, with strong large scale ascent and deep upslope flow in place for the central and eastern mountains, and adjacent lower levels. This setup looks to be in place, along with an abundance of moisture and instability, at least through the 9z time frame. So, current trends of increasing snow coverage and intensity is expected to continue for much of tonight and provide light to moderate, occasionally heavy snow to these areas. Did increase snow totals tonight for these areas, but given the setup, could still be somewhat low in spots. While locations have been slow to observe accumulations on area roadways, webcams have shown a trend towards snow covered roads. With cooling temps tonight and expected increases in snow intensity, see no reason why this trend won`t continue. May see this trend be delayed slightly across the southern I-25 corridor, but with snow intensity really ramping up in this location very late tonight into early Monday morning, anticipate area roadways to become slippery. Snow will end from north to south through early to mid morning as forcing/focus shift out of the area. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 305 PM MDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Key Message: 1) Accumulating snow likely central and southeast mountains tonight Scattered rain and snow showers have developed across the region this afternoon, as upper level trough slides eastward into wrn CO. Haven`t seen any cloud to ground lightning yet, though a few in cloud flashes have been noted with some some modest convection in Custer County earlier today, so will keep slight thunder chance going into the evening, though coverage will be limited. Best upward motion still forecast to arrive this evening, then gradually shift southward toward the NM border after midnight. Model QPF suggests liquid amounts in the quarter to half inch range over the mountains by Monday morning, with only a tenth or two over most valleys/I-25 corridor. Exception might be east slopes of the srn Sangres and srn I-25 corridor from Walsenburg south to Raton Pass, where HRRR and NAM indicate some slightly heavier amounts. Snow level starts around 7000 feet early this evening, then falls to around 5000 feet Monday morning. Current set of advisories look good, as 4-8 inches look likely over the higher elevations of the central and eastern mountains, though a good deal of melting will occur as surface temps are still above freezing. Could see some slushy accums on grassy areas/elevated surfaces down to around 5-6k feet by morning, though impacts should again be limited by warm surface temps. If the plains east of I-25 are going to get any precip, it will likely come Monday morning as low moves east, with areas south of the Arkansas River favored for perhaps a tenth of two before precip ends everywhere around midday. Monday afternoon looks cool with slowly decreasing clouds in the wake of the trough passage, with perhaps a sprinkle/flurry over the higher peaks as moisture lingers. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 305 PM MDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Key Messages: 1) Growing concern for more Critical Fire Weather days starting Tuesday and continuing through Friday, with Friday the biggest concern at this time. Tuesday - Thursday... The start of the long term period will remain relatively quiet weather wise, with a couple of exceptions. The GEFS and EPS ensemble models remain in agreement through this period, leading to better confidence in the evolution of things. Overall, a ridging pattern is expected to develop across the central US. This feature will be the primary influence during this period, and synoptic descent will over spread the region. This will keep precipitation chances low for most of southern Colorado, generally less than 10% chance. Temperatures will also begin to warm under this ridging pattern, with temperatures expected to be 10-20F above average across southern Colorado. There are signals that a weak and quick moving short wave will push eastward in the overall westerly flow. This feature isn`t expected to be too much of an influence on the area though, except for some isolated pockets of precipitation along the western mountains during the day Wednesday. There are also growing concerns of more Critical Fire Weather conditions starting to develop over this period, as windier and drier conditions start overspreading southern Colorado again. Friday... The end of the work week looks to be the next chance of more impactful weather. The ensemble models are in agreement that a trough is likely to exist and dig southward, but to what extent, there is still differences on. The GEFS models takes the system further south and more over southern Colorado, while the EPS solution takes the system further north and more into northern Colorado. This give confidence that a storm system will exist and impact the area in some way, but the exact impacts are still unclear, as the storm track will play a huge role in that. Regardless though, this overall pattern would bring increased precipitation chances to southern Colorado, especially for the mountains. This pattern would also bring windier conditions to the forecast area, especially if the northern track comes to fruition. Also with this system, more Critical Fire Weather conditions will be possible, also especially if the more northern track becomes favored. Saturday - Sunday... Heading into the end of the long term period, a more zonal flow pattern is expected. This patten would keep precipitation chances low across southern Colorado, though some isolated precipitation can not be ruled out along the mountains. Temperatures will also cool down, as a cold front is expected to drop southward behind the Friday system. Temperatures will cool back down to near or slightly above average for this time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 305 PM MDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Showers will continue to develop across the area late this afternoon, with vcsh at KCOS and KPUB until 00z. Precip becomes steadier this evening with a period of MVFR conditions at KCOS and brief MVFR at KPUB from 00z-06z, and could see a rain/snow mix at KCOS after sunset, though any accums will be light. Showers begin to diminish and cigs lift by 12z Mon. At KALS, VFR cigs today and tonight, with most shower activity staying over the mountains to the east of the terminal. On Monday, VFR cigs at all terminals will gradually lift through the day, with clouds scattering by late afternoon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for COZ058>063-072- 073-076>082. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Monday for COZ074-075-087- 088. && $$ UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...PETERSEN