Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/24/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 PM MDT Sat Apr 23 2022
00Z TAF CYCLE
West to northwest winds will diminish this evening and be mostly
light after midnight. Visibility restrictions from wildfire smoke at
KSAF, KLVS and KABQ due to the drainage wind is still likely,
especially after 03Z.
.PREV DISCUSSION...213 PM MDT Sat Apr 23 2022...
Windy conditions prevail this afternoon, but much lower than
yesterday`s and with cooler temperatures behind a cold front that
will continue for a few days after a reinforcing cold front arrives
late Sunday into Monday. Otherwise, expect winds to trend down more
tomorrow. The reinforcing cold front may bring a round of showers to
the Sangre De Cristo Mountains and nearby highlands Sunday night into
Monday, but otherwise the next shot at precipitation will come on
Wednesday when a disturbance will move east across the region.
Showers and a few storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening
with the disturbance, but with very little measurable rain. Winds
will trend up from mid to late week with the return of above normal
temperatures. Another cold front may impact the area late Friday into
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
With yesterday`s storm system now over the northern Great Plains,
today`s winds have been nowhere near as severe as what was observed
yesterday afternoon. Still, the latest mesoanalysis indicates a
997mb surface low that has deepened across SE CO while 700mb winds
are near 50 knots along the Sangre de Cristos. This has allowed for
continued windy conditions this afternoon for areas along and east
of the central mountain chain with a few locations nearing high wind
criteria. Made no changes to the current wind highlights, and those
are currently scheduled to expire at 6pm this evening as daytime
mixing comes to an end.
A weak backdoor cold front moves into eastern NM starting around
midnight, quickly moving through Roswell between 4am and 6am Sunday
morning. Winds will become more northerly behind this front which
will help to spread recent wildfire smoke farther south. The HRRR
Smoke model has caught onto this as well and shows a large area of
smoke across the east. As such, did put an extensive area of smoke
in the weather grids for tonight.
Another shortwave trough will track southeast through the central
and southern Rockies on Sunday. Fortunately, winds aloft look much
lighter compared to recent days which will keep surface winds below
advisory criteria. As that trough clips northern NM, it may have
just enough lift and moisture to develop a few rain and high
elevation snow showers across the northern high terrain. The Raton
Mesa area may have better luck with shower development though Sunday
night as yet another, and this time stronger, backdoor cold front
moves through the eastern plains. Otherwise, Sunday should actually
be a pretty pleasant day under slightly cooler high temperatures.
Lows on Sunday night do trend down in the wake of this system with a
few valley locations across the west and north likely recording
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A backdoor cold front will progress west through central NM and make
a run all the way to the Continental Divide Monday morning if the
12Z NAM has it`s say. Gusty east canyon/gap winds are likely Monday
morning into the Rio Grande and upper Tularosa Valleys, with gusts
to between 30-40mph likely. The latest model solutions all show
precipitation continuing Monday morning over the Sangre De Cristos
and nearby highlands as a shortwave trough ejects east out of the
southern Rockies and the backdoor front supplies low level upslope
flow. Cooler temperatures are forecast behind the backdoor front,
especially across the eastern plains where highs are forecast to be
10-15 degrees below normal. After a relatively cool night,
temperatures will begin to rebound Tuesday as an upper level ridge
moves overhead. Southerly flow in the lower boundary layer under the
ridge will bring moisture north into NM leading to a relative spike
in PWATs. Although unimpressive, moisture advection will be
sufficient for a round of convection on Wednesday given an
approaching and weak shortwave trough being modeled by both the
latest GFS and ECMWF. Convection on Wednesday afternoon/evening will
likely be dry, with very little measurable rain expected until storms
get closer to the TX border where a more moist near-surface
environment will exist. Our PoPs are low for Wednesday
afternoon/evening and actual coverage may end up greater than what
our PoPs would imply. Moderate and very dry westerlies will punch in
Thursday with windy conditions and the return of above normal
temperatures areawide. There is some disagreement among the 12Z
medium range model solutions with regard to another shortwave trough
toward the end of the week and a backdoor cold front going into the
weekend. Will refrain from too much detail for Fri/Sat, with the most
likely scenario being continued dry/windy conditions.
Today`s round of critical fire weather conditions will taper off
after sunset as winds trend down to below critical levels. A weak
backdoor cold front moves through eastern NM tonight, first shifting
winds northerly after midnight and then easterly after sunrise.
Another storm system clips northern NM on Sunday, likely resulting
in a few showers across the Sangres and Raton Mesa areas.
Precipitation is generally expected to be light and wetting
precipitation will be spotty, but the best chances will be near the
Raton Mesa thanks to the influence of another backdoor cold front.
Winds on Sunday will be much lighter with only breezy conditions
expected along the east slopes and adjacent highlands. It will be in
this area near Las Vegas where spotty critical fire weather
conditions will persist, but coverage is not widespread or long-
lived enough to warrant any highlights at this time.
A break from the wind is expected on Monday. While winds pick up
again starting Tuesday, some low-level return flow will result in
improving overnight humidity recoveries through mid-week. As another
weak system crosses the area Wednesday, this may help to develop a
few showers or storms across central and eastern NM. Drier westerly
flow redevelops Thursday which will spell the return of critical
fire weather conditions through the remainder of the week.
18Z TAF CYCLE
Westerly to northwesterly winds are already strengthening late this
morning and will continue to stay strong through this afternoon with
gusts generally around 30 to 40 knots. Winds will subside after
sunset. Visibility restrictions from wildfire smoke at KSAF, KLVS,
and possibly KABQ due to the drainage wind is still likely,
especially after 00Z.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
804 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022
High pressure becomes centered off the North Carolina coast tonight.
A cold front will cross the region on Tuesday. Cooler and drier
conditions are expected from Wednesday through Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT Saturday...
Mstly clr for the the rest of tonite. A frontal bndry remains nearly
stnry along the ern shore thru Sun. This will keep a light onshore
flow going along the coast. Milder than recent nights. Lows in upr
50s-lwr 60s except mid 50s across the ern shore.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...
The backdoor cold front likely stays just N/NE of the FA through the
first part of Sun. With the surface high offshore, SSW-SW low-level
flow across most areas (onshore over the Lower Ern Shore), and
mainly sunny skies, summer like temperatures are expected with the
upper ridge axis nearly over the area. Highs are expected to in the
mid to upper 80s south and west of the Chesapeake Bay and near 80F
for interior areas of the Eastern Shore. A few 90F readings are
possible in central/south-central VA. The cooler water temperatures
will continue to keep areas near the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore
(especially OXB-WAL-MFV) much cooler. Highs in these locations will
only be in the 60s-low 70s. The HRRR (and a couple other CAMs) show
isolated convection developing along the front late Sun aftn-Sun
evening INVOF the VA Nrn Neck/Middle Peninsula, but will keep PoPs
below 15% given that we will be directly under an upper ridge and a
lack of a discernible forcing mechanism. Temperatures will fall into
the 60s across the Ern Shore late Sun aftn-early Sun evening as the
backdoor front moves back through part of the area (but will likely
stall very near or along an EZF-ORF-NTU line Sun night). Lows Sun
night are forecast to be in the mid 50s NE (w/ onshore flow) with
low 60s central/south/southeast on the warm side of the front. Dry
wx is expected on Mon with front lingering near the VA Nrn
Neck/coastal SE VA. It will be another day with summer-like
temperatures across inland portions of the FA, with mid to upper 80s
expected. However, with a light onshore flow (and more cloudiness)
in areas near the bay/coast, forecast highs are mainly in the 70s
(w/ 60s from OXB-WAL).
Upper ridging slowly retreats to the SE Mon night-Tue as an upper
low moves from the srn Canadian Prairies to the NW Great Lakes (the
flow aloft becomes SW over the Mid-Atlantic). Meanwhile, a
relatively strong late April cold front slowly approaches from the
NW. Model consensus continues to show a slower FROPA, with the front
not crossing the area until late Tue aftn/evening. While a few tstms
could form ahead of the front across central/SE VA Tue aftn and
early evening, most of the pcpn will occur behind the front as weak
low pressure develops along it as the upper trough axis remains to
our W. Showers will be fairly widespread from late Tue aftn-the
first part of Tue night before exiting the area from NW-SE early Wed
AM. Have raised PoPs to ~70% (nearly) area-wide. Will continue w/
the mention of some tstms in the central and S but will continue to
keep thunder out of the grids across most of the Ern Shore. Even if
a few tstms do form ahead of the front, instability will be modest,
deep-layer shear looks marginal, and mid-level lapse rates will be
poor (<6C/km). Therefore, severe wx is not likely to occur. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be dependent on the timing of the cold
front and with the trend of a later arrival, high temperatures are
expected to be in the low to mid 80s for most of the area. However,
temperatures will remain in the 70s across the eastern shore with
the flow off the cooler waters of the bay. Lows in the mid 40s to
lower 50s Tue night.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...
Much cooler and drier conditions return for Wed-Fri. An upper low
tracks from New England to the Canadian Maritimes late next week
with WNW or NW flow aloft over the Mid-Atlantic. Highs mainly in the
60s on Wed/Thu, with upper 60s-low 70s on Fri. Lows in the 30s to
low 40s Wed night, and upper 30s to mid 40s Thu night. Forecast
confidence decreases at the end of the period (next weekend) as
model solutions vary widely. Pcpn chances potentially return by next
weekend (and for now, will introduce slight chc PoPs Sat night).
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Saturday...
VFR conditions thru the forecast period as high pressure dominates.
Light onshore flow conts along the coast ivof a weak frontal bndry
that is located across the ern shore. The frontal bndry is progged
to remain across the ern shore thru Sun. This results in a light
onshore wind at SBY. Otw, winds become SW at 5-10 kts Sun.
VFR conditions through Mon with the frontal bndry remaining
nearly stnry acros sthe ern shore. A stronger cold front brings
a chc for showers and perhaps a tstm by Tue aftn- evening (some
flight restrictions are likely). The front clears the area Tue
night, giving way to dry wx on Wed with NW winds.
As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...
Rather quiet on the marine from tonight through Tue with sub-
SCA conditions. Late this aftn, sfc high pressure was centered
off the nrn Mid Atlc coast. Winds were SE 5-15 kt over the
waters, with waves 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft. SE winds 5-15 kt this
evening (a bit gusty up to 20 kt possible in the vicinity of
thte lower Ches Bay/lower James River), become SSW tonight into
Sun morning. A backdoor cold front will drop into at least the
nrn third of the waters Sun aftn into Sun evening, then may
linger in this vicinity through Mon, providing E or SE winds
along and north of the boundary. While winds south of the
boundary will remain SSW or SSE. A stronger cold front crosses
the local waters Tue night bringing the next chc of SCA conditions
(and NNW winds) in its wake for Tue night into Wed. Seas will
be 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft through Mon.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
952 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022
With a warm frontal boundary off to the southwest, a band
of light rain will move northwest to southeast across the area for
this evening into tonight. Although the wet weather should be done
for Sunday, it will remain mostly cloudy and fairly cool through the
day. Milder temperatures and some breaks of sun are possible for
Monday, before a cold front bring some showers to the area for
Monday night into Tuesday, with a return to cooler temperatures by
the middle of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Showers are tracking southeast across our region, just scattered
and just wetting the ground in a few areas. Quite a bit of low
level dry air, so not much of the rain is reaching the surface.
Some showers with scattered coverage are tracking through
eastern NY and parts of western New England and will continue
the rest of this evening and during the early morning hours.
Just some minor adjustments to rain chances, sky cover and
temperatures through tonight.
A surface boundary remains draped southwest of the area
across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic states and this
boundary has been lifting northward as a warm front, as mid-
level warm advection increases over the area.
This warm advection, aided by some upper level jet dynamics, has
allowed for some light rain showers aloft over northern areas.
However, dry low- levels has been causing this precip to
evaporate before reaching the surface. While MRMS imagery shows
showers over northern areas, NYS Mesonet observations/webcams
shows no precip has occurred, thanks to the dewpoints in the
teens and 20s.
For this evening into tonight, 3km HRRR and NAMNest show bands
of light showers moving from northwest to southeast across the
area. However, will limit POPs to just slight to low chc, as the
dry low-levels and fairly weak forcing in place shouldn`t allow
for much to occur. Can`t rule out a few hundredths of rain here
and there, but most of any rainfall looks spotty, light and
fairly brief. The threat should be ending by 2 or 3 AM, as the
best jet dynamics aloft start shifting away and a narrow upper
level ridge starts building into the area. The surface front
won`t be passing through, though, as it looks to remain stalled
to the west of the area through the overnight hours.
Lows will mainly be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, although some
mid 30s are possible across the Adirondacks and southern VT.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal boundary will be draped from the northern mid-Atlantic,
northward across central PA and into western/central NY. Our
area will remain on the eastern side of this boundary and it
looks to stay stalled across this area through the day on
Sunday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will be located east of
the region offshore the western Atlantic. As a result, there
will be a fairly cool south to southeast flow in place, although
this surface flow looks rather light. While areas west of the
region will be getting rather warm and mild on Sunday, our area
looks to remain somewhat cool, especially since there should be
a good deal of clouds in place. Most areas will be stuck in the
50s through the day, although some breaks of sun could boost
parts of the mid-Hudson Valley into the low 60s by afternoon.
While it doesn`t look quite as cold as what the METMOS would
suggest, we haven`t gone quite as warm as the ECMWF/GFS either.
Temps are a tad lower than the NBM mean and are similar to the
mean of what the 12z HREF would suggest. Otherwise, it should
be dry for Sunday, as large-scale forcing will be weak with a
narrow upper level ridge overhead and skies averaging mostly
cloudy through the day.
Dry and quiet weather looks to continue into Sunday night with a
partly to mostly cloudy sky. The upper level ridge axis will
start shifting east and the flow will start to become more south
to southwest by later Sunday night. Overnight lows will mainly
be in the 40s, although some upper 30s are possible in the
There still is some question of just how warm it will get for
Monday. It is still unclear if the warm front will actually be
able to move eastward through the area. Temps aloft will be
warming and the low level flow should be more southwesterly,
which would suggest it could push through. However, it will
depend if the cooler, marine air is able to be nudged out of the
area. For now, have gone close to the NBM guidance, suggesting
valley highs in the 60s (some 50s for the high terrain of
western New England). There is still some uncertainty with this
and if clouds hang around, temps could be a little cooler. It
should continue to stay dry through much of the day Monday, as
any forcing for precip will remain off to the west.
For Monday night, surface cold front will finally be pushing
into the area from the west. A line of showers will start
spreading west to east across the area, although it is uncertain
regarding the exact coverage. Western areas will have the best
chance for showers on Monday night due to the slower timing of
the front, with lows in the 40s.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper low approaches Tuesday as the associated cold front tracks
through our region. Scattered to likely shower coverage along the
front with low level forcing associated with the leading edge of
cold advection and low level wind shift. Coverage of showers will
decrease through Tuesday night as cold advection strengthens through
the night. Highs Tuesday, pre frontal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s
with mid 50s higher terrain.
The upper low and upper cold pool will be slow to track through our
region Wednesday, gradually exiting our region Thursday and Friday.
The cold air aloft will support diurnal shower development
especially Wednesday but also each afternoon Thursday and Friday.
However, as the upper low exits, coverage will be less each day and
by Friday just isolated. There should be some scattered snow shower
activity in the southern Adirondacks each evening until the
nighttime subsidence causes the showers and snow showers to
dissipate. There could be breaks in the clouds across our region at
night as well, then instability clouds and showers again late
morning through the afternoon each day. By Saturday, the upper low
should be far away enough so that there should be a mix of clouds
and sun and isolated showers if at all in the southern Adirondacks.
Highs Wednesday with the better coverage of showers around 50 to mid
50s with around 40 to mid 40s higher terrain. Highs Thursday in the
upper 40s to lower 50s with lower to mid 40s higher terrain. Highs
Friday and Saturday in the lower to mid 50s with mid 40s to around
50 higher terrain.
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period to 00z
Monday under the influence of local high pressure. A band of showers
will be moving across the region over the next few hours before
08-09z Sunday, but weak forcing combined with dry low- level air
will likely keep any showers from reducing cigs and vsbys below VFR
conditions. After showers exit the region, there is a chance for
borderline VFR/MVFR cigs at ALB and PSF, and possibly at GFL.
Winds are currently about 5 kt out of the northeast at GFL/ALB/POU
and out of the northwest at PSF. Between 04-08z Sunday, winds will
drop to light and variable at the northern terminals before picking
up from the south and southeast to 6-10 kt around 12-14z. POU will
see southeasterly winds at 8-9 kt beginning around 03z Sunday.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32
kts. Slight Chance of SHRA.
A few showers are possible this evening into tonight, but any
rainfall looks fairly light. On Sunday, skies will remain fairly
cloudy and afternoon RH values will only lower to 40 to 60
percent. South to southeast winds will be around 5 mph. RH
values will recover on Sunday night and lower back on Monday to
40 to 60 percent once again with southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph.
The next chance for showers will be Monday night into Tuesday.
With a frontal boundary nearby, some showers are expected this
evening into tonight, although amounts will be very light. Most
areas will only see a tenth of an inch or less by Sunday
morning. After a dry day for Sunday and most of Monday, some
showers associated with a cold front are expected Monday night
into Tuesday. Most of this will also be on the light side, with
under a quarter of an inch expected. Some additional rainfall is
possible,on Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially for eastern
areas, as a a wave of low pressure moves up the eastern
seaboard and an upper level trough impacts the area. However,
amounts are not expected to be excessive. As a result, river and
stream levels will only see very minor rises into next week and
no flooding is anticipated at this time.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
640 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022
H5 analysis this morning had a closed low over the Nebraska
Panhandle. From this feature, a negatively tilted trough extended
southeast into northwestern Kansas. This low was part of a broad
trough of low pressure which extended from Montana, south to the
Four Corners. Current satellite imagery now has the closed low
over south central South Dakota north of Valentine. East of this
feature, is a broad ridge of high pressure which extended from the
Florida Panhandle, north to southern Ontario. A secondary ridge
was located off the NW coast of the CONUS and extended into
British Columbia. At the surface, strong low pressure was located
over northeastern South Dakota, southwest of Aberdeen. Across
western and north central Nebraska this afternoon, strong westerly
winds were present across the area, albeit, not as strong as what
we saw last evening and into the overnight hours. Showers earlier
this morning had migrated north an dissipated over north central
Nebraska as of midday. However, light to moderate and even some
heavy snow continued over portions of northern and western
Sheridan county this afternoon. Based on highway cameras, the bulk
of this was only accumulating on grassy surfaces. The exception
was north and west of Hay Springs and north of Rushville in the
Pine ridge. After collaborating with CYS, went ahead and issued a
winter weather advisory for Sheridan county. This was in addition
to the high wind warning currently in effect for this area. It is
important to note, snow accumulations decrease quickly off of the
Pine Ridge, as locations in southern and eastern Sheridan county,
are not accumulating snow ATTM. For the remainder of the forecast
area, skies were partly to mostly cloudy and temperatures as of 3
PM CT ranged from 36 at Gordon to 59 at Broken Bow.
Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022
The High Wind Warning across wrn Nebraska has been expanded south
through swrn Nebraska, including Custer county.
Reports of 60 mph wind gusts are developing across swrn Nebraska
including Custer county. The RAP model shows a corridor of 60-70kt
winds at h700mb underway which are forecast to persist throughout
the evening. The loss of heating should cause a drop in wind gust
The forecast update uses a blend of the HRRR, RAP, GFS and highres
FV3 model wind gusts plus a few knots.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022
The main forecast challenges in the near term are winds tonight
along with precipitation chances in the north. HRRR runs this
morning, along with some support from the NAM12 soln indicate
support for extending the high wind warning into the evening
hours. Another change was to extend the high wind warning east to
eastern Cherry county as there is a tongue of higher H85 winds
along the SD/NE border this evening. High wind headlines may need
to be extended further east into the remainder of north central
Nebraska for tonight. However forecast confidence ie. not enough
support from guidance and the HRRR is there yet for me to pull the
trigger further east. Will pass this onto the evening shift and
have them watch this closely. With respect to snow over the far
northwestern forecast area, the latest NAM12 soln does continue to
show some weak mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift this
evening in the far northwestern forecast area. I did continue to
mention the threat for snow this evening in the northwest and
decided to continue the winter weather advisory for Sheridan
county through 11 PM MDT. As for accumulations, they should remain
in the 1 to 3 inch range with slightly heavier amounts possible
in the Pine Ridge where local enhancement of lift is favored. Even
if snow intensities do diminish later this afternoon into the
evening, the strong westerly winds in Sheridan county will lead to
some minor travel impacts, especially in open areas due to
blowing snow. Overnight, the upper level low and surface low, will
track into northern Minnesota, becoming vertically stacked. This
will weaken the surface low toward daybreak Sunday. However, with
high pressure off to the west of the area, a strong surface
pressure gradient will exist overnight tonight into the daytime
hours Sunday. Winds will diminish some overnight, only to continue
into Sunday afternoon. Wind speeds will be slightly lower Sunday
compared to this afternoon with gusts in the 35 to 45 MPH range.
Surface high pressure will build into the panhandle and western
Sandhills overnight Sunday night finally diminishing winds to
under 15 MPH overnight. The "relatively" lighter winds and dry
conditions, will lead to overnight lows in the 20s, which will be
the coldest temps over the next 7 days.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022
After cool temperatures Monday with highs in the 50s to lower
60s, a gradual warming trend will begin Tuesday, continuing
through Thursday. Expect mainly dry conditions midweek next week
with highs generally in the 70s all three days. Some 80s will be
possible in the south on Wednesday. By the end of the week,
precipitation chances will begin to increase as an upper level low
deepens over the northern Rockies. This feature will then lift
across the Dakotas next weekend. Precipitation chances will
increase Thursday night into the weekend. Given the track of the
upper level low, we will be highly dependent on pre frontal
moisture return for precipitation with this system. ATTM,
confidence is not high with the pcpn forecast next weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022
A powerful late spring storm across the Dakotas this evening is
expected to produce areas of MVFR/IFR/local LIFR in low ceilings
and -SN across nrn Nebraska...west of KVTN tonight and Sunday.
MVFR ceilings and isold-sct -SHSW are expected from KVTN east.
South of highway 20, VFR should prevail tonight and Sunday.
Winds...28030G40-45KT this evening should relax to 29025G35KT by
High Wind Warning until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MDT this evening for NEZ004.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
724 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022
00Z TAFs - Mainly VFR this evening and a scattered leftover CU
field early with bases 2.5-4 ft. There is also mid-level clouds
from some earlier convection that will stream northward across our
western-most terminals but have little impact to flight operations
with CIGs 8-10 kft. The pressure gradient on the western periphery
of high pressure off the eastern seaboard looks strong enough to
prevent winds in the boundary layer from decoupling in most spots
tonight. The setup is not particularly favorable for fog as a
result. Stratus is more likely, especially toward dawn and across
inland zones. NBM/HREF CIG probabilities favor bases in the 1-2
kft range for places like BTR, ASD, and MCB. There was enough
support from the ensemble guidance to include a tempo IFR group
for MCB toward daybreak.
SE winds increase and CU field with bases between 2.5-3.5 kft AGL
should develop after a few hours of daytime mixing Sunday
morning. This could result in a brief MVFR restrictions between
about 15-18Z. Additionally, the flow is expected to veer slightly,
becoming S-SE and strengthening to 9-14 kt with gusts to 20 kt.
Widely scattered showers and isolated t-storms are expected to
develop during peak heating in the late morning and afternoon,
especially north and west of the NOLA terminals. -JRK
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 533 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022/
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE...
Just sent a forecast update with minor tweaks to the PoPs and
Weather grids through 9 PM. Kept in a small area of isolated
showers north and west of Lake Maurepas and along the Atchafalaya
basin through sunset. Removed mention of thunder. Despite SPC
mesoanalysis showing SBCAPE over 1000 J/KG, HRRR model soundings
and recent ACARS soundings near MSY indicate a thermal cap around
700 mb for mixed-layer parcels. This has led to an unfavorable
environment to sustain deep convective updrafts needed for
lightning development. -JRK
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022/
High pressure off the New Jersey coast extended southward into the
Carolinas and then westward into our area. Aloft, upper ridging
was noted over the Appalachians with a deep upper low over the
Locally, onshore flow continued with a rather extensive cumulus
field again this afternoon. The minor difference from yesterday
has been very isolated rain showers to the west of Interstate 55.
By very isolated...it`s likely that the showers are covering less
than one percent of any particular parish at one time.
Temperatures were generally in the lower and middle 80s at mid-
afternoon, with dew points in the mid and upper 60s, slightly
higher than yesterday at this time.
SHORT TERM (through Tuesday)...
Continuing Coastal Flood Advisory as configured through 7 PM
tomorrow, but that should be the last tide cycle of this event as
winds relax tomorrow evening and the astronomical tide ranges also
Upper trough over the Dakotas will gradually lift northeast into
Ontario over the next 36 hours, suppressing the southeast US ridge
a bit. A subtle southern stream shortwave may provide enough
forcing to produce scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or
two tomorrow afternoon as it crawls up the west side of the ridge.
Another strong shortwave dropping into the western side of the
trough to our north will give the cold front to our west a slow
shove into and through the area Monday night and Tuesday. As noted
above, scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be
possible tomorrow afternoon, but a better opportunity tomorrow
night into Tuesday. Front should be exiting the area by sunset
Little variance in guidance temperatures through Monday night.
Highs Tuesday will be dependent on timing of frontal passage, with
current numbers more supportive of the warmer ECMWF solution. 35
LONG TERM (Tuesday night and beyond)...
Ridging shifts eastward for the middle and end of the week. Drier
air will move in, with dew points falling into the 40s and 50s for
Wednesday through Friday. Probably won`t see any significant
return flow of moisture until about Friday or Saturday, so no
mention of precipitation will be noted in the forecast until
Saturday night or Sunday of next week, when the next frontal
passage will be expected. The ECMWF solution is a bit slower than
the GFS, and we`ll see how the timing shifts over the next several
Regarding temperatures, with a drier airmass moving into the area,
there are trends to follow that have served well over the last few
months. Where differences in guidance have existed, trending
toward cooler low temp guidance and warmer high temp guidance has
generally been beneficial. Ranges between the 25th and 75th
percentiles of the NBM for the middle and end of next week are
around 4-6F, which isn`t bad for forecast confidence, with the
deterministic numbers are coming in similar to the trends noted
above. Would note that once we get beyond next Saturday, those
ranges open up considerably, indicating very limited confidence in
the forecast beyond that point. 35
AVIATION (valid through 00z Monday)...
Most terminals VFR this afternoon, but where the cumulus field is
a little more widespread, there are a couple terminals reporting
ceilings right around FL030. Introduced VCSH to KMCB and KBTR
based on radar, but that`s probably overkill to some extent. The
showers and most of the cumulus should dissipate as we approach
Winds aren`t expected to totally decouple tonight again tonight,
which should reduce the threat of fog being a significant impact.
More likely, there will be a few locations with low stratus around
sunrise, similar to this morning. Looking at the NBM guidance it
shows that the probability of visibilities <3 miles is in the
single digits at all terminals except KMCB (17%). Expect a brief
period of MVFR to IFR conditions at several terminals, with
improvement to general VFR conditions by 15z Sunday.
The threat of SHRA/TSRA increases during the afternoon hours on
Sunday, primarily at terminals west of Interstate 55. At this
point, vicinity mention probably more realistic than TEMPO or
prevailing mention. 35
Will extend Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines overnight
across all waters, with the expectation that they will need
continued on Sunday across most or all waters. May see some
relaxation in the winds/seas Sunday night into Tuesday evening,
until a cold front moves through the waters. Even Tuesday night
into Wednesday, it appears that conditions may not reach Advisory
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 64 84 65 84 / 0 30 0 50
BTR 66 84 67 85 / 10 40 0 60
ASD 65 85 66 85 / 0 20 0 30
MSY 69 83 70 84 / 0 20 0 30
GPT 67 82 68 82 / 0 10 0 20
PQL 64 82 63 83 / 0 10 0 10
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ064-069-070-
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ080>082.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
820 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Through this evening)
Issued at 158 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2022
Shift started with lingering convection making its way out the door
into Canadian waters and plenty of low level moisture across Upper
Michigan. This moisture and upslope flow resulted in patchy fog
across parts of Marquette County and the Keweenaw Peninsula. SPSs
were issued for both, and a second SPS has been issued for the
Keweenaw Peninsula through early this evening. Motorists are
reminded to take their time, drive with their headlights on, and
leave extra space between themselves and other vehicles.
Moisture has resulted in mostly cloudy skies save for downslope
areas in the western UP and across the south. Daytime temps so far
have largely topped out in the mid-40s across the central, high 30s
in the Keweenaw, and 50s and low 60s in the west.
Upstream, RAP analysis depicts surface warm front moving into
central Wisconsin and curving northwest toward northwestern
Wisconsin. Along this boundary, some light precip has been observed
on radar. There also appears to be diurnally driven shower
activity, perhaps aided by this morning`s exiting
convection/frictional convergence in the eastern UP and along the
Garden and parts of Luce. Radar signatures suggest only drizzle or
light rain in this patch. As we progress through the remainder of
the afternoon and early evening, surface boundary is expected to
lift into the UP with some isolated/scattered shower activity
mainly limited to the central. Upstream, convection out ahead of a
cold front is expected to increase in coverage and move in after
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 436 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2022
Warm, moist surface frontal boundary will have crossed over the MI
border by the start of this forecast period, allowing for another
round of shower and thunderstorm activity. The focus for the
activity will be courtesy of a meridionally-aligned upper jet axis
approaching and traversing Upper Michigan tonight from the west,
ahead of the low pressure system responsible for the weather as of
late. Embedded vort maxes will assist with lift; ample PWATs of at
least 1", potentially as high as 1.5", will assist with moderate to
locally brief heavy rainfall chances; and sufficient available
instability will provide the opportunity for lightning to occur.
Precip chances then look to wane again during the day tomorrow as
dry slotting moves in, then the low turns northeastward, marching
toward James Bay by Monday.
What to watch for tonight: not an exact repeat of last night, but
thunderstorms with embedded moderate to locally brief heavy rainfall
could cause water to pond in susceptible areas, coupled with the
continued melting of the snowpack where it exists. Lows will run
rather high for this time of year, ranging in the 40s and 50s.
Once the aforementioned low pulls out of the region on Monday, the
next precip chances could occur Monday night into Tuesday as an
upper trough axis swings across the Upper Great Lakes region. Much
colder air will have returned by then, reintroducing the potential
for said precip to fall as snow or a RASN mix. Brief ridging allows
for dry conditions mid-week, with the next precip chances arriving
late in the week courtesy of weak, passing disturbances.
Before the alluded to colder air moves back in early next week,
temps look to rise well into the 50s and 60s tomorrow given the
surge of WAA. Monday through Thursday is anticipated to run below
normal for late April, with the coldest day occurring on Tuesday.
Lows will respond accordingly, with teens reappearing Tuesday night.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 818 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2022
Poor flying conditions to persist through the TAF period with low
visibilities and cigs. Generally, expect IFR/LIFR at KCMX, MVFR/IFR
at KSAW, and MVFR/VFR at KIWD. A prolonged LLWS threat will also
prevail at all TAF sites through tomorrow morning due to a strong
low level jet. Isolated showers will be possible through tomorrow
with isolated embedded thunderstorms tonight. Winds at the surface
will generally be southeasterly, veering to the southwest tomorrow
morning. Sustained wind speeds will be in the 12 to 20 kt range
with gusts up to 32 kts.
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 436 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2022
SE gales to 40 knots this afternoon into this evening will taper
down to around 30 knot gusts or less overnight into early Sunday.
Although a few gale-force gusts can`t be ruled out for the latter
half of this weekend into early next week, winds will generally top
out to 30 knots or less during this period. By Tuesday through the
remainder of the week, wind gusts of 25 knots or less are
Fog will envelope much of the lake tonight as very warm air
temperatures glide across the very chilly Lake Superior waters.
Tonight`s fog looks to struggle to stick around beyond around midday
Sunday as cooler air aloft starts moving back into the region.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ264-266-267.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1015 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022
No notable changes for the evening update. Dry conditions with
only some passing high clouds are expected overnight. Did adjust
lows ever so slightly towards the latest HRRR run which is a touch
warmer than previous forecast. These were minor changes, but the
biggest relative change was in the northern valley. The Tri
Cities airport set a calendar day record high this afternoon, so
bumped them up a couple of degrees. Otherwise no changes to speak
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Most clouds will
be over the TN mountains, but expect FEW-SCT050 south of KTYS
tomorrow as daytime mixing commences.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 84 61 85 57 / 0 0 0 20 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 84 58 84 56 / 0 0 0 20 60
Oak Ridge, TN 59 83 58 84 54 / 0 0 0 20 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 84 54 82 57 / 0 0 0 10 50
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
505 PM MST Sat Apr 23 2022
.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.
High pressure will build across the region through early next
week with prevailing dry conditions and generally clear skies. A
warming trend will begin today, but temperatures this weekend will
still be near seasonal normals. A return to very warm conditions
is expected next week with lower desert high temperatures
climbing into the nineties starting Monday, peaking Tuesday at
around 100 degrees, before slowly dropping back closer to 90
degrees by the end of next week.
The low pressure system that brought the blustery conditions to
the region yesterday has already moved into the northern Plains.
In its wake, winds are considerably weaker while below normal
temperatures persist across the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile,
surface dewpoints are running 5 to 10 degrees lower than those
observed 24 hours ago. For overnight, an innocuous trough will
swing through the Four Corners, reinforcing the dry, subsident
northwesterly flow. Skies will be mostly clear, however latest
HRRR guidance indicates some diffuse smoke or haze from the
Crooks fire south of Prescott could work its way into south-
central Arizona tonight.
Models remain in good agreement that a warming and drying trend
will continue through Monday as a ridge in the Pacific Northwest
migrates eastward and builds across the intermountain West.
Temperatures will be close to normal Sunday, though above average
temperatures are expected by Monday.
Tuesday will likely be the warmest day as the pattern amplifies
and a return flow develops between the southern extension of a
Pacific low pressure system and the aforementioned ridge in the
Plains. Latest NBM indicates roughly a 70% chance of reaching 100
degrees in Phoenix, which would be the first 100 degree reading of
the year and about 10 days earlier than average. Upper quartile
temperature of 103 degrees in Phoenix would break the daily record
of 102 degrees, set only two years ago in 2020. In addition to
the heat, models continue to hint at a brief moisture surge into
eastern Arizona in response to an increasing southerly and
easterly component to the 1000-700 mb flow. Operational models
generally suggest low-level mixing ratios will increase to roughly
3-5 g/kg in Phoenix. This wont be anywhere high enough to
generate convection, but it is somewhat unusual for late April and
Another round of breezy to windy conditions will likely develop
Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday as a trough sweeps through the
Desert Southwest. Latest ECMWF ensemble suggests gusts could reach
as high as 30 mph Tuesday, particularly across the higher terrain
north and east of Phoenix. By midweek a series of low pressure
systems across the Pacific Northwest will quell the steadily
increasing thicknesses. This will translate into slightly cooler
conditions Wednesday through next weekend, though temperatures
will likely remain several degrees above normal, resulting in a
widespread and persistent minor heat risk. Continuation of the
below normal PWATs will also offer essentially no hope for any
.AVIATION...Updated at 00Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Lingering W component breezes with occasional gusts to 15-20kt
during the early evening will taper off and become lighter. Then
later tonight winds become variable by 6-8Z through mid morning.
Elevated N component winds will impinge on DVT tonight with gusts
into the teens around midnight. By mid morning slightly elevated
N-NE winds with occasional gusts into the teens will turn to more
NW components by early afternoon, and W by late afternoon.
Light smoke from the Crooks Fire (south of Prescott) is forecast
to filter over the Phoenix area. Despite this, surface slantwise
visibility should remain >6SM.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Downvalley flow will be the driving force of wind across this
area through the TAF period. At KBLH N gusts over 20KT will linger
in the early evening. Speeds decrease tonight and back around to
the W/NW, especially at KIPL. Even gustier conditions are
forecast by mid morning Sun with gusts of 20-25 kts at KBLH and
into the teens at KIPL. Skies remain clear.
Tuesday through Saturday:
Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will prevail through
next weekend. Afternoon breeziness with gusts of 20-30 mph appear likely
on Tuesday and Wednesday, before dropping off mostly into the
teens later next week. The dry air mass will keep RHs low through
the period with minimum afternoon readings in the single digits
each day, while only recovering to 15-30% overnight.
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