Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/24/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 PM MDT Sat Apr 23 2022 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE West to northwest winds will diminish this evening and be mostly light after midnight. Visibility restrictions from wildfire smoke at KSAF, KLVS and KABQ due to the drainage wind is still likely, especially after 03Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION...213 PM MDT Sat Apr 23 2022... .SYNOPSIS... Windy conditions prevail this afternoon, but much lower than yesterday`s and with cooler temperatures behind a cold front that will continue for a few days after a reinforcing cold front arrives late Sunday into Monday. Otherwise, expect winds to trend down more tomorrow. The reinforcing cold front may bring a round of showers to the Sangre De Cristo Mountains and nearby highlands Sunday night into Monday, but otherwise the next shot at precipitation will come on Wednesday when a disturbance will move east across the region. Showers and a few storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening with the disturbance, but with very little measurable rain. Winds will trend up from mid to late week with the return of above normal temperatures. Another cold front may impact the area late Friday into next Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... With yesterday`s storm system now over the northern Great Plains, today`s winds have been nowhere near as severe as what was observed yesterday afternoon. Still, the latest mesoanalysis indicates a 997mb surface low that has deepened across SE CO while 700mb winds are near 50 knots along the Sangre de Cristos. This has allowed for continued windy conditions this afternoon for areas along and east of the central mountain chain with a few locations nearing high wind criteria. Made no changes to the current wind highlights, and those are currently scheduled to expire at 6pm this evening as daytime mixing comes to an end. A weak backdoor cold front moves into eastern NM starting around midnight, quickly moving through Roswell between 4am and 6am Sunday morning. Winds will become more northerly behind this front which will help to spread recent wildfire smoke farther south. The HRRR Smoke model has caught onto this as well and shows a large area of smoke across the east. As such, did put an extensive area of smoke in the weather grids for tonight. Another shortwave trough will track southeast through the central and southern Rockies on Sunday. Fortunately, winds aloft look much lighter compared to recent days which will keep surface winds below advisory criteria. As that trough clips northern NM, it may have just enough lift and moisture to develop a few rain and high elevation snow showers across the northern high terrain. The Raton Mesa area may have better luck with shower development though Sunday night as yet another, and this time stronger, backdoor cold front moves through the eastern plains. Otherwise, Sunday should actually be a pretty pleasant day under slightly cooler high temperatures. Lows on Sunday night do trend down in the wake of this system with a few valley locations across the west and north likely recording freezing temperatures. LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... A backdoor cold front will progress west through central NM and make a run all the way to the Continental Divide Monday morning if the 12Z NAM has it`s say. Gusty east canyon/gap winds are likely Monday morning into the Rio Grande and upper Tularosa Valleys, with gusts to between 30-40mph likely. The latest model solutions all show precipitation continuing Monday morning over the Sangre De Cristos and nearby highlands as a shortwave trough ejects east out of the southern Rockies and the backdoor front supplies low level upslope flow. Cooler temperatures are forecast behind the backdoor front, especially across the eastern plains where highs are forecast to be 10-15 degrees below normal. After a relatively cool night, temperatures will begin to rebound Tuesday as an upper level ridge moves overhead. Southerly flow in the lower boundary layer under the ridge will bring moisture north into NM leading to a relative spike in PWATs. Although unimpressive, moisture advection will be sufficient for a round of convection on Wednesday given an approaching and weak shortwave trough being modeled by both the latest GFS and ECMWF. Convection on Wednesday afternoon/evening will likely be dry, with very little measurable rain expected until storms get closer to the TX border where a more moist near-surface environment will exist. Our PoPs are low for Wednesday afternoon/evening and actual coverage may end up greater than what our PoPs would imply. Moderate and very dry westerlies will punch in Thursday with windy conditions and the return of above normal temperatures areawide. There is some disagreement among the 12Z medium range model solutions with regard to another shortwave trough toward the end of the week and a backdoor cold front going into the weekend. Will refrain from too much detail for Fri/Sat, with the most likely scenario being continued dry/windy conditions. 15/11 && .FIRE WEATHER... Today`s round of critical fire weather conditions will taper off after sunset as winds trend down to below critical levels. A weak backdoor cold front moves through eastern NM tonight, first shifting winds northerly after midnight and then easterly after sunrise. Another storm system clips northern NM on Sunday, likely resulting in a few showers across the Sangres and Raton Mesa areas. Precipitation is generally expected to be light and wetting precipitation will be spotty, but the best chances will be near the Raton Mesa thanks to the influence of another backdoor cold front. Winds on Sunday will be much lighter with only breezy conditions expected along the east slopes and adjacent highlands. It will be in this area near Las Vegas where spotty critical fire weather conditions will persist, but coverage is not widespread or long- lived enough to warrant any highlights at this time. A break from the wind is expected on Monday. While winds pick up again starting Tuesday, some low-level return flow will result in improving overnight humidity recoveries through mid-week. As another weak system crosses the area Wednesday, this may help to develop a few showers or storms across central and eastern NM. Drier westerly flow redevelops Thursday which will spell the return of critical fire weather conditions through the remainder of the week. 15 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Westerly to northwesterly winds are already strengthening late this morning and will continue to stay strong through this afternoon with gusts generally around 30 to 40 knots. Winds will subside after sunset. Visibility restrictions from wildfire smoke at KSAF, KLVS, and possibly KABQ due to the drainage wind is still likely, especially after 00Z. 15 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ102>104-107-108. High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ223-228-229. Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ212-214-215-222-227-230>235. && $$
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
804 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure becomes centered off the North Carolina coast tonight. A cold front will cross the region on Tuesday. Cooler and drier conditions are expected from Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 800 PM EDT Saturday... Mstly clr for the the rest of tonite. A frontal bndry remains nearly stnry along the ern shore thru Sun. This will keep a light onshore flow going along the coast. Milder than recent nights. Lows in upr 50s-lwr 60s except mid 50s across the ern shore. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM EDT Saturday... The backdoor cold front likely stays just N/NE of the FA through the first part of Sun. With the surface high offshore, SSW-SW low-level flow across most areas (onshore over the Lower Ern Shore), and mainly sunny skies, summer like temperatures are expected with the upper ridge axis nearly over the area. Highs are expected to in the mid to upper 80s south and west of the Chesapeake Bay and near 80F for interior areas of the Eastern Shore. A few 90F readings are possible in central/south-central VA. The cooler water temperatures will continue to keep areas near the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore (especially OXB-WAL-MFV) much cooler. Highs in these locations will only be in the 60s-low 70s. The HRRR (and a couple other CAMs) show isolated convection developing along the front late Sun aftn-Sun evening INVOF the VA Nrn Neck/Middle Peninsula, but will keep PoPs below 15% given that we will be directly under an upper ridge and a lack of a discernible forcing mechanism. Temperatures will fall into the 60s across the Ern Shore late Sun aftn-early Sun evening as the backdoor front moves back through part of the area (but will likely stall very near or along an EZF-ORF-NTU line Sun night). Lows Sun night are forecast to be in the mid 50s NE (w/ onshore flow) with low 60s central/south/southeast on the warm side of the front. Dry wx is expected on Mon with front lingering near the VA Nrn Neck/coastal SE VA. It will be another day with summer-like temperatures across inland portions of the FA, with mid to upper 80s expected. However, with a light onshore flow (and more cloudiness) in areas near the bay/coast, forecast highs are mainly in the 70s (w/ 60s from OXB-WAL). Upper ridging slowly retreats to the SE Mon night-Tue as an upper low moves from the srn Canadian Prairies to the NW Great Lakes (the flow aloft becomes SW over the Mid-Atlantic). Meanwhile, a relatively strong late April cold front slowly approaches from the NW. Model consensus continues to show a slower FROPA, with the front not crossing the area until late Tue aftn/evening. While a few tstms could form ahead of the front across central/SE VA Tue aftn and early evening, most of the pcpn will occur behind the front as weak low pressure develops along it as the upper trough axis remains to our W. Showers will be fairly widespread from late Tue aftn-the first part of Tue night before exiting the area from NW-SE early Wed AM. Have raised PoPs to ~70% (nearly) area-wide. Will continue w/ the mention of some tstms in the central and S but will continue to keep thunder out of the grids across most of the Ern Shore. Even if a few tstms do form ahead of the front, instability will be modest, deep-layer shear looks marginal, and mid-level lapse rates will be poor (<6C/km). Therefore, severe wx is not likely to occur. High temperatures on Tuesday will be dependent on the timing of the cold front and with the trend of a later arrival, high temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 80s for most of the area. However, temperatures will remain in the 70s across the eastern shore with the flow off the cooler waters of the bay. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s Tue night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Saturday... Much cooler and drier conditions return for Wed-Fri. An upper low tracks from New England to the Canadian Maritimes late next week with WNW or NW flow aloft over the Mid-Atlantic. Highs mainly in the 60s on Wed/Thu, with upper 60s-low 70s on Fri. Lows in the 30s to low 40s Wed night, and upper 30s to mid 40s Thu night. Forecast confidence decreases at the end of the period (next weekend) as model solutions vary widely. Pcpn chances potentially return by next weekend (and for now, will introduce slight chc PoPs Sat night). && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions thru the forecast period as high pressure dominates. Light onshore flow conts along the coast ivof a weak frontal bndry that is located across the ern shore. The frontal bndry is progged to remain across the ern shore thru Sun. This results in a light onshore wind at SBY. Otw, winds become SW at 5-10 kts Sun. OUTLOOK... VFR conditions through Mon with the frontal bndry remaining nearly stnry acros sthe ern shore. A stronger cold front brings a chc for showers and perhaps a tstm by Tue aftn- evening (some flight restrictions are likely). The front clears the area Tue night, giving way to dry wx on Wed with NW winds. && .MARINE... As of 350 PM EDT Saturday... Rather quiet on the marine from tonight through Tue with sub- SCA conditions. Late this aftn, sfc high pressure was centered off the nrn Mid Atlc coast. Winds were SE 5-15 kt over the waters, with waves 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft. SE winds 5-15 kt this evening (a bit gusty up to 20 kt possible in the vicinity of thte lower Ches Bay/lower James River), become SSW tonight into Sun morning. A backdoor cold front will drop into at least the nrn third of the waters Sun aftn into Sun evening, then may linger in this vicinity through Mon, providing E or SE winds along and north of the boundary. While winds south of the boundary will remain SSW or SSE. A stronger cold front crosses the local waters Tue night bringing the next chc of SCA conditions (and NNW winds) in its wake for Tue night into Wed. Seas will be 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft through Mon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP/MPR NEAR TERM...ERI/MPR SHORT TERM...ERI LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...MPR MARINE...ALB/TMG
National Weather Service Albany NY
952 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS... With a warm frontal boundary off to the southwest, a band of light rain will move northwest to southeast across the area for this evening into tonight. Although the wet weather should be done for Sunday, it will remain mostly cloudy and fairly cool through the day. Milder temperatures and some breaks of sun are possible for Monday, before a cold front bring some showers to the area for Monday night into Tuesday, with a return to cooler temperatures by the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Showers are tracking southeast across our region, just scattered and just wetting the ground in a few areas. Quite a bit of low level dry air, so not much of the rain is reaching the surface. Some showers with scattered coverage are tracking through eastern NY and parts of western New England and will continue the rest of this evening and during the early morning hours. Just some minor adjustments to rain chances, sky cover and temperatures through tonight. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A surface boundary remains draped southwest of the area across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic states and this boundary has been lifting northward as a warm front, as mid- level warm advection increases over the area. This warm advection, aided by some upper level jet dynamics, has allowed for some light rain showers aloft over northern areas. However, dry low- levels has been causing this precip to evaporate before reaching the surface. While MRMS imagery shows showers over northern areas, NYS Mesonet observations/webcams shows no precip has occurred, thanks to the dewpoints in the teens and 20s. For this evening into tonight, 3km HRRR and NAMNest show bands of light showers moving from northwest to southeast across the area. However, will limit POPs to just slight to low chc, as the dry low-levels and fairly weak forcing in place shouldn`t allow for much to occur. Can`t rule out a few hundredths of rain here and there, but most of any rainfall looks spotty, light and fairly brief. The threat should be ending by 2 or 3 AM, as the best jet dynamics aloft start shifting away and a narrow upper level ridge starts building into the area. The surface front won`t be passing through, though, as it looks to remain stalled to the west of the area through the overnight hours. Lows will mainly be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, although some mid 30s are possible across the Adirondacks and southern VT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Frontal boundary will be draped from the northern mid-Atlantic, northward across central PA and into western/central NY. Our area will remain on the eastern side of this boundary and it looks to stay stalled across this area through the day on Sunday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will be located east of the region offshore the western Atlantic. As a result, there will be a fairly cool south to southeast flow in place, although this surface flow looks rather light. While areas west of the region will be getting rather warm and mild on Sunday, our area looks to remain somewhat cool, especially since there should be a good deal of clouds in place. Most areas will be stuck in the 50s through the day, although some breaks of sun could boost parts of the mid-Hudson Valley into the low 60s by afternoon. While it doesn`t look quite as cold as what the METMOS would suggest, we haven`t gone quite as warm as the ECMWF/GFS either. Temps are a tad lower than the NBM mean and are similar to the mean of what the 12z HREF would suggest. Otherwise, it should be dry for Sunday, as large-scale forcing will be weak with a narrow upper level ridge overhead and skies averaging mostly cloudy through the day. Dry and quiet weather looks to continue into Sunday night with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. The upper level ridge axis will start shifting east and the flow will start to become more south to southwest by later Sunday night. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s, although some upper 30s are possible in the highest terrain. There still is some question of just how warm it will get for Monday. It is still unclear if the warm front will actually be able to move eastward through the area. Temps aloft will be warming and the low level flow should be more southwesterly, which would suggest it could push through. However, it will depend if the cooler, marine air is able to be nudged out of the area. For now, have gone close to the NBM guidance, suggesting valley highs in the 60s (some 50s for the high terrain of western New England). There is still some uncertainty with this and if clouds hang around, temps could be a little cooler. It should continue to stay dry through much of the day Monday, as any forcing for precip will remain off to the west. For Monday night, surface cold front will finally be pushing into the area from the west. A line of showers will start spreading west to east across the area, although it is uncertain regarding the exact coverage. Western areas will have the best chance for showers on Monday night due to the slower timing of the front, with lows in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper low approaches Tuesday as the associated cold front tracks through our region. Scattered to likely shower coverage along the front with low level forcing associated with the leading edge of cold advection and low level wind shift. Coverage of showers will decrease through Tuesday night as cold advection strengthens through the night. Highs Tuesday, pre frontal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s with mid 50s higher terrain. The upper low and upper cold pool will be slow to track through our region Wednesday, gradually exiting our region Thursday and Friday. The cold air aloft will support diurnal shower development especially Wednesday but also each afternoon Thursday and Friday. However, as the upper low exits, coverage will be less each day and by Friday just isolated. There should be some scattered snow shower activity in the southern Adirondacks each evening until the nighttime subsidence causes the showers and snow showers to dissipate. There could be breaks in the clouds across our region at night as well, then instability clouds and showers again late morning through the afternoon each day. By Saturday, the upper low should be far away enough so that there should be a mix of clouds and sun and isolated showers if at all in the southern Adirondacks. Highs Wednesday with the better coverage of showers around 50 to mid 50s with around 40 to mid 40s higher terrain. Highs Thursday in the upper 40s to lower 50s with lower to mid 40s higher terrain. Highs Friday and Saturday in the lower to mid 50s with mid 40s to around 50 higher terrain. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period to 00z Monday under the influence of local high pressure. A band of showers will be moving across the region over the next few hours before 08-09z Sunday, but weak forcing combined with dry low- level air will likely keep any showers from reducing cigs and vsbys below VFR conditions. After showers exit the region, there is a chance for borderline VFR/MVFR cigs at ALB and PSF, and possibly at GFL. Winds are currently about 5 kt out of the northeast at GFL/ALB/POU and out of the northwest at PSF. Between 04-08z Sunday, winds will drop to light and variable at the northern terminals before picking up from the south and southeast to 6-10 kt around 12-14z. POU will see southeasterly winds at 8-9 kt beginning around 03z Sunday. Outlook... Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A few showers are possible this evening into tonight, but any rainfall looks fairly light. On Sunday, skies will remain fairly cloudy and afternoon RH values will only lower to 40 to 60 percent. South to southeast winds will be around 5 mph. RH values will recover on Sunday night and lower back on Monday to 40 to 60 percent once again with southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph. The next chance for showers will be Monday night into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... With a frontal boundary nearby, some showers are expected this evening into tonight, although amounts will be very light. Most areas will only see a tenth of an inch or less by Sunday morning. After a dry day for Sunday and most of Monday, some showers associated with a cold front are expected Monday night into Tuesday. Most of this will also be on the light side, with under a quarter of an inch expected. Some additional rainfall is possible,on Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially for eastern areas, as a a wave of low pressure moves up the eastern seaboard and an upper level trough impacts the area. However, amounts are not expected to be excessive. As a result, river and stream levels will only see very minor rises into next week and no flooding is anticipated at this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/NAS SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...Picard FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
640 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 H5 analysis this morning had a closed low over the Nebraska Panhandle. From this feature, a negatively tilted trough extended southeast into northwestern Kansas. This low was part of a broad trough of low pressure which extended from Montana, south to the Four Corners. Current satellite imagery now has the closed low over south central South Dakota north of Valentine. East of this feature, is a broad ridge of high pressure which extended from the Florida Panhandle, north to southern Ontario. A secondary ridge was located off the NW coast of the CONUS and extended into British Columbia. At the surface, strong low pressure was located over northeastern South Dakota, southwest of Aberdeen. Across western and north central Nebraska this afternoon, strong westerly winds were present across the area, albeit, not as strong as what we saw last evening and into the overnight hours. Showers earlier this morning had migrated north an dissipated over north central Nebraska as of midday. However, light to moderate and even some heavy snow continued over portions of northern and western Sheridan county this afternoon. Based on highway cameras, the bulk of this was only accumulating on grassy surfaces. The exception was north and west of Hay Springs and north of Rushville in the Pine ridge. After collaborating with CYS, went ahead and issued a winter weather advisory for Sheridan county. This was in addition to the high wind warning currently in effect for this area. It is important to note, snow accumulations decrease quickly off of the Pine Ridge, as locations in southern and eastern Sheridan county, are not accumulating snow ATTM. For the remainder of the forecast area, skies were partly to mostly cloudy and temperatures as of 3 PM CT ranged from 36 at Gordon to 59 at Broken Bow. && .UPDATE... Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 The High Wind Warning across wrn Nebraska has been expanded south through swrn Nebraska, including Custer county. Reports of 60 mph wind gusts are developing across swrn Nebraska including Custer county. The RAP model shows a corridor of 60-70kt winds at h700mb underway which are forecast to persist throughout the evening. The loss of heating should cause a drop in wind gust speeds. The forecast update uses a blend of the HRRR, RAP, GFS and highres FV3 model wind gusts plus a few knots. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 The main forecast challenges in the near term are winds tonight along with precipitation chances in the north. HRRR runs this morning, along with some support from the NAM12 soln indicate support for extending the high wind warning into the evening hours. Another change was to extend the high wind warning east to eastern Cherry county as there is a tongue of higher H85 winds along the SD/NE border this evening. High wind headlines may need to be extended further east into the remainder of north central Nebraska for tonight. However forecast confidence ie. not enough support from guidance and the HRRR is there yet for me to pull the trigger further east. Will pass this onto the evening shift and have them watch this closely. With respect to snow over the far northwestern forecast area, the latest NAM12 soln does continue to show some weak mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift this evening in the far northwestern forecast area. I did continue to mention the threat for snow this evening in the northwest and decided to continue the winter weather advisory for Sheridan county through 11 PM MDT. As for accumulations, they should remain in the 1 to 3 inch range with slightly heavier amounts possible in the Pine Ridge where local enhancement of lift is favored. Even if snow intensities do diminish later this afternoon into the evening, the strong westerly winds in Sheridan county will lead to some minor travel impacts, especially in open areas due to blowing snow. Overnight, the upper level low and surface low, will track into northern Minnesota, becoming vertically stacked. This will weaken the surface low toward daybreak Sunday. However, with high pressure off to the west of the area, a strong surface pressure gradient will exist overnight tonight into the daytime hours Sunday. Winds will diminish some overnight, only to continue into Sunday afternoon. Wind speeds will be slightly lower Sunday compared to this afternoon with gusts in the 35 to 45 MPH range. Surface high pressure will build into the panhandle and western Sandhills overnight Sunday night finally diminishing winds to under 15 MPH overnight. The "relatively" lighter winds and dry conditions, will lead to overnight lows in the 20s, which will be the coldest temps over the next 7 days. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 After cool temperatures Monday with highs in the 50s to lower 60s, a gradual warming trend will begin Tuesday, continuing through Thursday. Expect mainly dry conditions midweek next week with highs generally in the 70s all three days. Some 80s will be possible in the south on Wednesday. By the end of the week, precipitation chances will begin to increase as an upper level low deepens over the northern Rockies. This feature will then lift across the Dakotas next weekend. Precipitation chances will increase Thursday night into the weekend. Given the track of the upper level low, we will be highly dependent on pre frontal moisture return for precipitation with this system. ATTM, confidence is not high with the pcpn forecast next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 A powerful late spring storm across the Dakotas this evening is expected to produce areas of MVFR/IFR/local LIFR in low ceilings and -SN across nrn Nebraska...west of KVTN tonight and Sunday. MVFR ceilings and isold-sct -SHSW are expected from KVTN east. South of highway 20, VFR should prevail tonight and Sunday. Winds...28030G40-45KT this evening should relax to 29025G35KT by 02z-03z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NEZ004-005-022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071-094. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MDT this evening for NEZ004. && $$ UPDATE...CDC SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
724 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs - Mainly VFR this evening and a scattered leftover CU field early with bases 2.5-4 ft. There is also mid-level clouds from some earlier convection that will stream northward across our western-most terminals but have little impact to flight operations with CIGs 8-10 kft. The pressure gradient on the western periphery of high pressure off the eastern seaboard looks strong enough to prevent winds in the boundary layer from decoupling in most spots tonight. The setup is not particularly favorable for fog as a result. Stratus is more likely, especially toward dawn and across inland zones. NBM/HREF CIG probabilities favor bases in the 1-2 kft range for places like BTR, ASD, and MCB. There was enough support from the ensemble guidance to include a tempo IFR group for MCB toward daybreak. SE winds increase and CU field with bases between 2.5-3.5 kft AGL should develop after a few hours of daytime mixing Sunday morning. This could result in a brief MVFR restrictions between about 15-18Z. Additionally, the flow is expected to veer slightly, becoming S-SE and strengthening to 9-14 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated t-storms are expected to develop during peak heating in the late morning and afternoon, especially north and west of the NOLA terminals. -JRK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 533 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022/ LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE... Just sent a forecast update with minor tweaks to the PoPs and Weather grids through 9 PM. Kept in a small area of isolated showers north and west of Lake Maurepas and along the Atchafalaya basin through sunset. Removed mention of thunder. Despite SPC mesoanalysis showing SBCAPE over 1000 J/KG, HRRR model soundings and recent ACARS soundings near MSY indicate a thermal cap around 700 mb for mixed-layer parcels. This has led to an unfavorable environment to sustain deep convective updrafts needed for lightning development. -JRK PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022/ SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the New Jersey coast extended southward into the Carolinas and then westward into our area. Aloft, upper ridging was noted over the Appalachians with a deep upper low over the Dakotas. Locally, onshore flow continued with a rather extensive cumulus field again this afternoon. The minor difference from yesterday has been very isolated rain showers to the west of Interstate 55. By very`s likely that the showers are covering less than one percent of any particular parish at one time. Temperatures were generally in the lower and middle 80s at mid- afternoon, with dew points in the mid and upper 60s, slightly higher than yesterday at this time. SHORT TERM (through Tuesday)... Continuing Coastal Flood Advisory as configured through 7 PM tomorrow, but that should be the last tide cycle of this event as winds relax tomorrow evening and the astronomical tide ranges also decrease. Upper trough over the Dakotas will gradually lift northeast into Ontario over the next 36 hours, suppressing the southeast US ridge a bit. A subtle southern stream shortwave may provide enough forcing to produce scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two tomorrow afternoon as it crawls up the west side of the ridge. Another strong shortwave dropping into the western side of the trough to our north will give the cold front to our west a slow shove into and through the area Monday night and Tuesday. As noted above, scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow afternoon, but a better opportunity tomorrow night into Tuesday. Front should be exiting the area by sunset Tuesday. Little variance in guidance temperatures through Monday night. Highs Tuesday will be dependent on timing of frontal passage, with current numbers more supportive of the warmer ECMWF solution. 35 LONG TERM (Tuesday night and beyond)... Ridging shifts eastward for the middle and end of the week. Drier air will move in, with dew points falling into the 40s and 50s for Wednesday through Friday. Probably won`t see any significant return flow of moisture until about Friday or Saturday, so no mention of precipitation will be noted in the forecast until Saturday night or Sunday of next week, when the next frontal passage will be expected. The ECMWF solution is a bit slower than the GFS, and we`ll see how the timing shifts over the next several days. Regarding temperatures, with a drier airmass moving into the area, there are trends to follow that have served well over the last few months. Where differences in guidance have existed, trending toward cooler low temp guidance and warmer high temp guidance has generally been beneficial. Ranges between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the NBM for the middle and end of next week are around 4-6F, which isn`t bad for forecast confidence, with the deterministic numbers are coming in similar to the trends noted above. Would note that once we get beyond next Saturday, those ranges open up considerably, indicating very limited confidence in the forecast beyond that point. 35 AVIATION (valid through 00z Monday)... Most terminals VFR this afternoon, but where the cumulus field is a little more widespread, there are a couple terminals reporting ceilings right around FL030. Introduced VCSH to KMCB and KBTR based on radar, but that`s probably overkill to some extent. The showers and most of the cumulus should dissipate as we approach sunset today. Winds aren`t expected to totally decouple tonight again tonight, which should reduce the threat of fog being a significant impact. More likely, there will be a few locations with low stratus around sunrise, similar to this morning. Looking at the NBM guidance it shows that the probability of visibilities <3 miles is in the single digits at all terminals except KMCB (17%). Expect a brief period of MVFR to IFR conditions at several terminals, with improvement to general VFR conditions by 15z Sunday. The threat of SHRA/TSRA increases during the afternoon hours on Sunday, primarily at terminals west of Interstate 55. At this point, vicinity mention probably more realistic than TEMPO or prevailing mention. 35 MARINE... Will extend Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines overnight across all waters, with the expectation that they will need continued on Sunday across most or all waters. May see some relaxation in the winds/seas Sunday night into Tuesday evening, until a cold front moves through the waters. Even Tuesday night into Wednesday, it appears that conditions may not reach Advisory criteria. 35 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 64 84 65 84 / 0 30 0 50 BTR 66 84 67 85 / 10 40 0 60 ASD 65 85 66 85 / 0 20 0 30 MSY 69 83 70 84 / 0 20 0 30 GPT 67 82 68 82 / 0 10 0 20 PQL 64 82 63 83 / 0 10 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ064-069-070- 076-078. GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ080>082. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
820 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Through this evening) Issued at 158 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2022 Shift started with lingering convection making its way out the door into Canadian waters and plenty of low level moisture across Upper Michigan. This moisture and upslope flow resulted in patchy fog across parts of Marquette County and the Keweenaw Peninsula. SPSs were issued for both, and a second SPS has been issued for the Keweenaw Peninsula through early this evening. Motorists are reminded to take their time, drive with their headlights on, and leave extra space between themselves and other vehicles. Moisture has resulted in mostly cloudy skies save for downslope areas in the western UP and across the south. Daytime temps so far have largely topped out in the mid-40s across the central, high 30s in the Keweenaw, and 50s and low 60s in the west. Upstream, RAP analysis depicts surface warm front moving into central Wisconsin and curving northwest toward northwestern Wisconsin. Along this boundary, some light precip has been observed on radar. There also appears to be diurnally driven shower activity, perhaps aided by this morning`s exiting convection/frictional convergence in the eastern UP and along the Garden and parts of Luce. Radar signatures suggest only drizzle or light rain in this patch. As we progress through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening, surface boundary is expected to lift into the UP with some isolated/scattered shower activity mainly limited to the central. Upstream, convection out ahead of a cold front is expected to increase in coverage and move in after this period. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 436 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2022 Warm, moist surface frontal boundary will have crossed over the MI border by the start of this forecast period, allowing for another round of shower and thunderstorm activity. The focus for the activity will be courtesy of a meridionally-aligned upper jet axis approaching and traversing Upper Michigan tonight from the west, ahead of the low pressure system responsible for the weather as of late. Embedded vort maxes will assist with lift; ample PWATs of at least 1", potentially as high as 1.5", will assist with moderate to locally brief heavy rainfall chances; and sufficient available instability will provide the opportunity for lightning to occur. Precip chances then look to wane again during the day tomorrow as dry slotting moves in, then the low turns northeastward, marching toward James Bay by Monday. What to watch for tonight: not an exact repeat of last night, but thunderstorms with embedded moderate to locally brief heavy rainfall could cause water to pond in susceptible areas, coupled with the continued melting of the snowpack where it exists. Lows will run rather high for this time of year, ranging in the 40s and 50s. Once the aforementioned low pulls out of the region on Monday, the next precip chances could occur Monday night into Tuesday as an upper trough axis swings across the Upper Great Lakes region. Much colder air will have returned by then, reintroducing the potential for said precip to fall as snow or a RASN mix. Brief ridging allows for dry conditions mid-week, with the next precip chances arriving late in the week courtesy of weak, passing disturbances. Before the alluded to colder air moves back in early next week, temps look to rise well into the 50s and 60s tomorrow given the surge of WAA. Monday through Thursday is anticipated to run below normal for late April, with the coldest day occurring on Tuesday. Lows will respond accordingly, with teens reappearing Tuesday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 818 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2022 Poor flying conditions to persist through the TAF period with low visibilities and cigs. Generally, expect IFR/LIFR at KCMX, MVFR/IFR at KSAW, and MVFR/VFR at KIWD. A prolonged LLWS threat will also prevail at all TAF sites through tomorrow morning due to a strong low level jet. Isolated showers will be possible through tomorrow with isolated embedded thunderstorms tonight. Winds at the surface will generally be southeasterly, veering to the southwest tomorrow morning. Sustained wind speeds will be in the 12 to 20 kt range with gusts up to 32 kts. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 436 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2022 SE gales to 40 knots this afternoon into this evening will taper down to around 30 knot gusts or less overnight into early Sunday. Although a few gale-force gusts can`t be ruled out for the latter half of this weekend into early next week, winds will generally top out to 30 knots or less during this period. By Tuesday through the remainder of the week, wind gusts of 25 knots or less are anticipated. Fog will envelope much of the lake tonight as very warm air temperatures glide across the very chilly Lake Superior waters. Tonight`s fog looks to struggle to stick around beyond around midday Sunday as cooler air aloft starts moving back into the region. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ264-266-267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTP LONG TERM...lg AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...lg
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1015 PM EDT Sat Apr 23 2022 .UPDATE... EVENING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... No notable changes for the evening update. Dry conditions with only some passing high clouds are expected overnight. Did adjust lows ever so slightly towards the latest HRRR run which is a touch warmer than previous forecast. These were minor changes, but the biggest relative change was in the northern valley. The Tri Cities airport set a calendar day record high this afternoon, so bumped them up a couple of degrees. Otherwise no changes to speak of. CD && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Most clouds will be over the TN mountains, but expect FEW-SCT050 south of KTYS tomorrow as daytime mixing commences. CD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 84 61 85 57 / 0 0 0 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 84 58 84 56 / 0 0 0 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 59 83 58 84 54 / 0 0 0 20 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 84 54 82 57 / 0 0 0 10 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
505 PM MST Sat Apr 23 2022 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region through early next week with prevailing dry conditions and generally clear skies. A warming trend will begin today, but temperatures this weekend will still be near seasonal normals. A return to very warm conditions is expected next week with lower desert high temperatures climbing into the nineties starting Monday, peaking Tuesday at around 100 degrees, before slowly dropping back closer to 90 degrees by the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... The low pressure system that brought the blustery conditions to the region yesterday has already moved into the northern Plains. In its wake, winds are considerably weaker while below normal temperatures persist across the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, surface dewpoints are running 5 to 10 degrees lower than those observed 24 hours ago. For overnight, an innocuous trough will swing through the Four Corners, reinforcing the dry, subsident northwesterly flow. Skies will be mostly clear, however latest HRRR guidance indicates some diffuse smoke or haze from the Crooks fire south of Prescott could work its way into south- central Arizona tonight. Models remain in good agreement that a warming and drying trend will continue through Monday as a ridge in the Pacific Northwest migrates eastward and builds across the intermountain West. Temperatures will be close to normal Sunday, though above average temperatures are expected by Monday. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day as the pattern amplifies and a return flow develops between the southern extension of a Pacific low pressure system and the aforementioned ridge in the Plains. Latest NBM indicates roughly a 70% chance of reaching 100 degrees in Phoenix, which would be the first 100 degree reading of the year and about 10 days earlier than average. Upper quartile temperature of 103 degrees in Phoenix would break the daily record of 102 degrees, set only two years ago in 2020. In addition to the heat, models continue to hint at a brief moisture surge into eastern Arizona in response to an increasing southerly and easterly component to the 1000-700 mb flow. Operational models generally suggest low-level mixing ratios will increase to roughly 3-5 g/kg in Phoenix. This wont be anywhere high enough to generate convection, but it is somewhat unusual for late April and worth noting. Another round of breezy to windy conditions will likely develop Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday as a trough sweeps through the Desert Southwest. Latest ECMWF ensemble suggests gusts could reach as high as 30 mph Tuesday, particularly across the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. By midweek a series of low pressure systems across the Pacific Northwest will quell the steadily increasing thicknesses. This will translate into slightly cooler conditions Wednesday through next weekend, though temperatures will likely remain several degrees above normal, resulting in a widespread and persistent minor heat risk. Continuation of the below normal PWATs will also offer essentially no hope for any precipitation. && .AVIATION...Updated at 00Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Lingering W component breezes with occasional gusts to 15-20kt during the early evening will taper off and become lighter. Then later tonight winds become variable by 6-8Z through mid morning. Elevated N component winds will impinge on DVT tonight with gusts into the teens around midnight. By mid morning slightly elevated N-NE winds with occasional gusts into the teens will turn to more NW components by early afternoon, and W by late afternoon. Light smoke from the Crooks Fire (south of Prescott) is forecast to filter over the Phoenix area. Despite this, surface slantwise visibility should remain >6SM. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Downvalley flow will be the driving force of wind across this area through the TAF period. At KBLH N gusts over 20KT will linger in the early evening. Speeds decrease tonight and back around to the W/NW, especially at KIPL. Even gustier conditions are forecast by mid morning Sun with gusts of 20-25 kts at KBLH and into the teens at KIPL. Skies remain clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday: Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will prevail through next weekend. Afternoon breeziness with gusts of 20-30 mph appear likely on Tuesday and Wednesday, before dropping off mostly into the teens later next week. The dry air mass will keep RHs low through the period with minimum afternoon readings in the single digits each day, while only recovering to 15-30% overnight. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, Twitter, and at DISCUSSION...Hirsch AVIATION...Sawtelle/Heil FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch/Kuhlman