Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/21/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
645 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022
Added patchy to areas of smoke to portions of northeast NM in
particular where smoke has been observed to be impacting portions of
I-25 between Wagon Mound and Springer. An AQA has also been issued as
HRRR smoke model is indicating some near surface smoke extending
eastward into northern Harding county later tonight. Updated ZFP just
.PREV DISCUSSION...533 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Sw-wly flow aloft with sfc low over ne NM. Sfc wind gusts to around
35kt to diminish after sunset. Smoke/haze from area wildfires may
locally reduce vsbys over west central and nrn NM but in general
VFR conditions to prevail.
.PREV DISCUSSION...301 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022...
After relatively light winds tonight through Thursday night,
widespread very strong to high winds will move in on Friday with
blowing dust and pollen along with extreme critical fire weather
conditions. Much of the area will likely see wind gusts between 55
and 70 mph Friday afternoon with local gusts as high as 80 mph from
the Sangre de Cristo mountains eastward. Despite cooler air moving
in Friday night, strong west winds and more dry air will lead to
another windy day and critical fire weather condtions Saturday. Less
wind and cooler condtions remain on track for Sunday and Monday. Dry
air, however, will allow temperatures to cool rapidly overnight with
the potential for freezing to below freezing temperatures for
central and western portions of the state.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
Warm and windy conditions persist this afternoon in what will likely
be the warmest day so far this calendar year. Roswell is forecast to
reach a high of 95 degrees later this afternoon, which would be a
new record by 1 degree. Winds are forecast to decouple most areas
overnight. Winds aloft will back to the southwest overnight into
Thursday in response to an upstream Pacific trough, currently moving
rapidly toward the Pacific NW and northern CA. A lee side trough
will begin to deepen by late Thursday afternoon and breezy to
locally windy conditions will materialize, though winds will
generally be lower than today`s. Highs on Thursday will be a degree
or two warmer than today`s most areas and generally well above
normal and approaching daily record values at a few locales. Gulf
moisture will make a run into the southeast and east central plains
Thursday night and may result in areas of low stratus/fog.
Otherwise, winds aloft will trend up significantly Thursday night
and begin impacting the higher elevations, setting the stage for
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Model guidance continues to increase wind speeds for Friday with
a widespread High Wind Event looking more likely for the entire
forecast area Friday afternoon and evening. Issued a High Wind Watch
for all forecast zones in the County Warning Area with a fair amount
of 50 kts sustained wind coverage along the higher peaks developing
Friday afternoon. Widespread blowing dust and pollen will also be
common, significantly reducing visibility at times and combined with
high winds, making traveling difficult for most vehicles and dangerous
for high profile vehicles. The associated strong but mainly dry
Pacific cold front is then forecast to plow its way from west to east
through the state late Friday afternoon through the evening hours,
changing wind direction to westerly. Despite cooler air moving in
behind the front along with a few showers near the CO line Friday
evening and night, the incoming airmass is once again very dry which
will lead to another day of critical fire weather conditions for
much of the area Saturday afternoon.
GFS and ECWMF continue to bring the associated trough axis through
on Sunday. Cooler air with a decrease in winds remains on track along
with chances for rain and snow to the east slopes of the northern
Sangre de Cristo mountains northeast to the Bartlett and Johnson
mesas including Raton Pass. A genuine break from the incessant wind
underneath a broad high pressure ridge is expected for early next
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH AN EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER EVENT LOOMING FOR FRIDAY...
Critical fire weather conditions continue across much of the area
today as moderate westerly flow and fairly deep layer mixing
persist. Critical fire weather conditions will be more limited in
area tomorrow as winds trend down. Will upgrade the watch to a
warning for the northeast and tack-on the east central plains,
although duration may be limited to two hours there. The big event
will be Friday, when a Pacific trough/low and associated cold front
approach from the west. Deep layer mixing ahead of the front will
bring strong to potentially damaging winds to the surface and create
critical fire weather conditions as unstable and very dry conditions
prevail. Strong winds will continue behind the Pacific front into
the evening hours when winds will shift from the south-southwest to
the west. Will issue an areawide watch for Friday, beginning mid
morning and continuing into the evening hours. Windy conditions will
persist Saturday behind the front and more critical fire weather
conditions are forecast, despite a much cooler airmass. Critical
fire weather conditions are not expected from Sunday through the
middle of next week as a ridge gradually builds and shifts east over
the southern Rockies and NM through Wednesday.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
the following zones... NMZ101>109.
High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for the
following zones... NMZ201>241.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for the following
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
821 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022
Issued at 808 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022
This update includes a few changes to the warmer lows tonight and
inputing current observations for sustained winds. A few high
clouds will continue tonight over the eastern plains. A small
boundary will shift winds at KAPA slightly but winds should trend
southeast shifting to south to southwest late tonight into early
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022
The lingering influence of enhanced midlevel winds peripheral to
a midlevel speed maximum crossing the central Great Plains will
continue enhancing the fire-weather risk across northeast Colorado
into the evening hours. This includes the continuation of
critical fire-weather conditions across the Cheyenne Ridge and
Central and Southeast Park County, where 30-40-mph wind gusts will
continue combining with 13-15-percent RH. After around 8PM,
nocturnal decoupling will lessen the fire-weather risk as relative
humidity recovers and winds decrease. Temperatures tonight are
expected to be in the middle 30s to around 40 degrees over the
plains, lower/middle 40s around the foothills, and in the 20s and
30s across the mountains and mountain valleys.
On Thursday, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected once
again as moderate southwesterly flow aloft becomes established along
the western flank of a midlevel ridge building to the east, and
becomes mixed to the surface yielding breezy southerly winds. A
strengthening surface trough over the foothills will result in
winds turning south-southeasterly across much of the plains,
facilitating an influx of modest return moisture over the plains.
This should keep any critical-fire weather risk confined to
Central and Southeast Park County.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022
...POTENTIALLY MAJOR WEATHER EVENT ON FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO INCLUDING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DAMAGING WINDS...WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST...
THUNDERSTORMS...AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...
---High-impact weather event on Friday to bring the potential for
numerous hazards across the NWS Denver/Boulder County Warning
Synoptic Overview: A deep, CONUS-full-latitude trough and
accompanying powerful mid- and upper-tropospheric jet will spread
across the region Friday into Friday night. As the trough tilt
trends to negative Friday night, a core of intense tropospheric
southerly flow will cross the forecast area. Strong forcing for
ascent within the left-exit region of the cyclonically curved
speed maximum will facilitate rapid cyclogenesis over the
northeast Colorado plains Friday afternoon. The deepening midlevel
trough and surface cyclone are expected to eject northeastward to
the northern plains Friday night into Saturday.
Fire Weather - Foothills and Plains: The strong mass response to
the deepening surface cyclone will favor rapid intensification of
surface winds through the day on Friday. With 40-55-kt 700-mb
southerlies overlying a diurnally deepening mixed layer, a
volatile combination of 50-60 mph wind gusts, temperatures in the
upper 70s to the 80s, and widespread relative humidity of 7 to 11
percent will support the potential for extreme fire behavior
including very rapid fire spread. Extremely critical fire-weather
conditions are a distinct possibility on Friday, especially given
how anomalously strong these winds will be in association with
much-above-normal temperatures and very dry surface conditions.
This has the potential to be a dangerous fire-weather episode
across the foothills and plains of northeast Colorado. A Fire
Weather Watch has been issued to highlight these conditions for
Non-Convective Damaging Winds - Eastern Plains: The core of the
700-mb speed maximum is expected to overlie the eastern plains
Friday afternoon. Diurnally enhanced vertical mixing will support
the potential for 50-55-kt of flow to be manifest at the surface
as 60-mph wind gusts from late Friday morning through Friday
afternoon and Friday evening -- principally along and east of an
Akron-Limon line. Such winds could be damaging, and a High Wind
Watch has been issued to highlight these conditions.
Widespread Blowing Dust - Plains: Dry antecedent ground conditions
amid the long fetch of southerly flow over the eastern Colorado
plains, along with the very strong surface winds, will support the
potential for significant blowing dust over the plains and
perhaps foothills for Friday afternoon and evening. Visibilities
may be reduced below 1 mile in association with the blowing dust.
Thunderstorms - Far Northeast Colorado: The strong low-level mass
response to the negatively tilted midlevel trough may allow
sufficient partially modified Gulf moisture to return to areas
along and east of a Holyoke-Julesburg line Friday evening. A
sharpening dryline will delineate the western edge of this return
moisture, and there is considerable uncertainty regarding its
exact position. It may be sufficiently east of the region to
preclude any thunderstorm risk. Alternatively a reasonable
scenario exists for a conditionally favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic parameter space to foster the development of strong
convection in extreme northeast Colorado Friday night. Overall
uncertainty in this scenario is appreciable, though it is a
Mountain Snow: As the upper trough and associated cold pool aloft
move over the mountains, and orographic ascent is enhanced, snow
is expected to develop over the mountains Friday afternoon and
continue into Saturday. Several inches of snow could fall through
the weekend over mountain peaks around the Continental Divide.
Confidence in snowfall amounts reaching criteria for winter-
weather highlights is low at this time.
Overall -- Friday into Friday night appears to feature a
potentially major weather event across the NWS Denver/Boulder
County Warning Area. Please continue to monitor the latest
information concerning these developments, and prepare for
potential high-impact weather.
Later in the weekend, a strong cold front is expected to drop
south across the region Saturday into Saturday night, ushering in
colder air. Snow showers will continue over the mountains, with a
mix of rain and snow showers possible over the foothills and even
parts of the Palmer Divide -- as the cold air aloft overspreads
the region. Any snow accumulations should be light, and mainly
relegated to higher elevations. Additional disturbances maintain
precipitation chances through the remainder of the weekend over
the mountains, with drier conditions farther east. Moderating
temperatures and drier conditions are expected for early to middle
parts of next week across the region, as a broad ridge builds
over the southwest/central states.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022
VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hrs. Still a risk of some
brief w-nw winds 00z-02z at all terminals, though latest HRRR
suggests a fairly quick switch back to easterly by 02z as downslope
surge dissipates. Winds at KDEN remain e-se through the night,
before gradually becoming more s-se after 11z-12z. Flow becomes
light and variable at KAPA and KBJC, especially after 04z, before
gradually turning n-nw after 06z. On Thursday, s-se winds strengthen
through the day, with some gusts to 25-30 kts after 17z, especially
Issued at 345 PM MDT Wed Apr 20 2022
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE-WEATHER EPISODE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS...
Critical fire-weather conditions are expected to continue across
the Cheyenne Ridge and Central and Southeast Park County into
early this evening.
Humidity values will stay higher for Thursday for most areas as
southeasterly surface winds advect moisture in from the southeast
across the plains. Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast
to be confined to Central and Southeast Park County.
Friday will be the most extreme day for fire weather as strong
southwest winds gusting to 40-60 mph will combine with humidity
values below 15 percent over most of the lower elevations and
foothills locations. The most volatile areas will be across the
eastern portions of the plains where the strongest winds and
lowest humidity values will juxtapose during the afternoon and
Humidity values increase for Saturday and Sunday, then warming
temperatures into early next week will bring a return of lower
humidity values. Winds, however, appear to be the limiting factor
for critical fire-weather conditions for early next week.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ214.
High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
928 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022
High pressure will continue at the surface overnight. Temps have
begun to moderate a bit, and with the thicker cloud cover, should
be a good deal warmer than last night. Speaking of cloud cover, a
mid level shortwave is moving east in the zonal flow. The wave
will help increase the mid level cloud cover overnight and early
tomorrow. For now, the forecast is on track and anticipate no
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 721 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022/
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
The axis of a broad upper level ridge is situated over Georgia as
the short term period begins. A strong surface high associated with
this ridge is positioned to the northeast of the forecast area and
is continuing to move eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Low-
level winds have shifted to southeasterly on the back side of the
high which will provide a gradual fetch of moisture from the
Atlantic throughout today and Thursday. For now, moisture return has
been slower than expected across north Georgia, with dewpoints still
being observed in the mid to upper 20s in the far northern tier. RH
values, in turn, have dropped to just below 25 percent in this area.
Have opted to trend on the lower end of guidance for the remainder
of this afternoon, as a result, blending in a mix of the latest
MAV/MET and HRRR solutions. After a chilly start to the morning,
temperatures are moderating underneath the ridge and mostly clear
skies, and afternoon highs are expected to rise into the 70s across
the majority of the area this afternoon.
Tonight, the ridge will move away to the east as an upper level
shortwave swings into the Mississippi River Valley and begins to
lift northeastward. More moisture return can be expected as the
upper level flow shifts to southwesterly ahead of the shortwave,
which will allow dewpoints to climb into the 40s overnight and
into the 50s on Wednesday. This disturbance will be weak and
should pass the area to the north on Thursday. As a result, PoPs
will be minimal at 10 percent or less, and confined to far north
Georgia, but an increase in cloud cover can nonetheless be
anticipated across the area. The warming trend will continue on
Thursday, with high temperatures forecast to be mainly in the
upper 70s to low 80s.
LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
A summer time pattern is expected to set up beginning on Friday and
run through the end of the long term. This weekend will introduce
the first blast of summer weather with temperatures getting into the
mid to upper 80s across the CWA. The heat will continue to build
through the weekend, and a few spots may see their first 90 degree
days come sunday or Monday. Fortunately, weak flow aloft and
generally SE winds will prevent moist tropical air from flooding the
area. So while we heat up quite a bit, we aren`t expecting the HI
values to be much higher than the actual temperatures.
Overnight Monday, we get a little break from the heat in the form of
a weak cold front. Given the lack of moisture and the generally dry
conditions of the southeast, we aren`t expecting much in the way of
total rainfall. After the front, winds become NW and another blast
of dry air sweeps over the SE. Temperatures behind the front, while
a bit cooler, will still be in the upper 70s and low 80s. Like it or
not, summer has arrived in georgia.
VFR through the period. Some sct MVFR is possible right around
12Z, not confident that enough low level moisture around for
clouds to go bkn. Winds will remain on the east side.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 50 76 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 53 76 54 80 / 5 5 0 0
Blairsville 48 70 49 78 / 5 10 5 0
Cartersville 54 77 51 82 / 5 5 5 0
Columbus 55 79 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 51 73 52 80 / 5 5 0 0
Macon 52 79 52 84 / 5 0 0 0
Rome 54 79 53 83 / 5 5 0 0
Peachtree City 52 78 51 82 / 0 5 0 0
Vidalia 53 78 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022
Primary forecast concerns are the convective storm chances the
next three days, including areal coverage and the strength of the
storms. Secondary concerns will be very strong wings Friday into
Saturday that should solidly meet wind advisory criteria, and some
concern if we would meet high wind warning conditions on Saturday.
In the short term, clouds have been slow to clear. We had
scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms this morning, in
both southwest IA, and northeast NE. Lately, in the last few hours,
the precipitation has transitioned to drizzle pushing west to
east, with some visibility restrictions down to 2 to 4 miles at
times. Weill continue to sweep the clouds out through early
evening. Where clouds have cleared and the front has pushed in
with northwesterly downsloping winds in northeast NE, temperatures
have quickly bumped into the upper 60s, but will likely only
reach the lower/mid 50s for western IA. And then lows drop into
the mid 30s to lower 40s overnight with mostly clear skies.
Thursday should be a very nice day with east southeast winds 10 to
15 mph, wind high temps reaching the lower to mid 70s. We well see
a small chance of thunderstorms developing near the NE/KS border
toward evening, north of a northward moving warm front. There
remains a chance of stronger storms near the NE/KS border through
the night, where SPC has outlined a slight risk of severe storms.
Of note amongst the CAMs, the HRRR would bring the chance of
storms in a little sooner than other models, so that`s something
we`ll be watching.
Meanwhile, numerous showers/thunderstorms overspread the forecast
area Thursday night. Rainfall amounts could average one half inch
which would be especially welcome. And whatever showers develop
would likely linger into Friday morning as the warm front lifts
northward. This sets the stage for a warm and windy Friday. After
the morning showers, high temps should climb into the mid 80s, and
could even make a run near 90 as you head west into the central
part of the state. Winds increase to 20 to 30 mph with winds 30 to
Convection still seems likely in central and northeast NE
toward evening as the dry line moves into the area. It`s
interesting to note the EC has been consistent in developing storm
a little farther east and deeper into our forecast area, but the
GFS/Canadian model developing storms farther west seems more
reasonable. SPC has a slight risk in northeast NE, and while there
will be a chance of storms farther east Friday night, unsure if
those storms would be severe.
The stronger winds continue Friday night into Saturday, and it`s
during time we`ll likely see stronger wind speed gusts 45 to 55
mph possible. We edged the NBM winds closer to the 90th
percentile during this time, but not as has as the NBM4.1 wind
speeds which would be more supportive of high wind warning
criteria over much of the region. But solid wind advisory criteria
seems plausible Friday night into Saturday.
As the front/dryline pushes east on Saturday, we`ll continue to
see a chance of scattered morning showers/storms, with another
risk for severe weather along/ahead of the front Saturday
afternoon and evening for southeast NE and southwest IA. This was
in the early morning Day 4 SPC outlook where they indicated a 15%
chance for severe storms.
The remainder of the forecast should be mostly dry with a slow
moderating trend for temperatures.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 535 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022
Cloud cover was quickly eroding over the region and all terminals
have improved to VFR. Deteriorating conditions though setting up
over eastern NE toward 06Z. Light winds and increasing boundary
layer moisture will result in flight restrictions IFR or less
between 06Z-14Z at both KOMA and KLNK. Improvement to VFR
thereafter. Expect KOFK to prevail with VFR conditions through