Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/16/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1039 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1021 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 The main forecast issue this evening is the potential for some patchy fog over portions of the west and south central late tonight into early Saturday morning. The RAP and HRRR have been pretty bullish in developing an area of low cigs/vsbys from northwest into south central ND late tonight. This seems a bit overdone and has already backed off an hour on the initial development. However, given the cold forecast low temperatures and the position of the surface high over western ND Saturday morning, think there is some potential for some patchy fog in low lying and protected areas. Surface moisture seems limited and since there wasn`t much melting today, will leave things as patchy for now and if RAP/HRRR are correct the overnight shift can adjust accordingly. No additional changes were warranted. Kept the previous forecast lows, mostly in the single digits. UPDATE Issued at 549 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 We adjusted sky cover and pops based on latest radar and satellite imagery. Current diurnally driven snow showers in cyclonic flow aloft look like they will linger into the early evening. A shortwave approaching the western ND border also may help keep snow showers lingering in the west. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Snow flurries will continue across portions of central and eastern North Dakota from Lake Sakakawea. Scattered cumulus clouds are going to continue to fill in this afternoon. The high temperature in Bismarck has only reached 24 so far setting the pace to break the previous record cold high of 32 set in 2011. Surface high pressure over eastern Montana is forecast to move into the western portion of the state resulting in clearing skies and light winds tonight. Optimal radiational cooling is going to help low temperatures drop down into the single digits. However, light winds will prevent dangerous wind chills. The forecast low temperature for Bismarck is 7 tomorrow morning potentially beating the record low temperature of 10 set in 1955. Saturday, an upper level ridge will settle over the Northern Plains bringing forth westerly flow to the surface. Westerly winds are going to advect cold air from snow pack over eastern Montana helping the region stay cold. Therefore, Saturday`s high temperatures are forecast to stay in the mid 20s. Surface high pressure will progress eastward ushering in a north south pressure gradient bringing back southerly flow into the region. This all ahead of another system in the long term. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Easter Sunday a short wave trough will trek across the Northern Plains bringing precipitation into North Dakota. Model soundings show ample lift in the mid levels as the low moves approaches the state. Majority of the precipitation will fall as snow and maybe a rain snow mix for the southern portion of the state. Areas likely to see the greater accumulations are northern portion of the state. Ensembles are highlighting snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. A front associated with the low will bring pressure rises leading to gusty winds. In addition, model cross sections show 40kts mixing to the surface by 21Z for the central portion of the state. Therefore post frontal winds should linger through the evening. Luckily by Monday majority of precipitation should be out of the region. An upper level ridge is going to follow in the wake of the aforementioned trough. Tuesday will see increasing upper level heights and warming temperatures.Temperatures could climb into the 40s for the southern portion of the state while the northern portion will warm above freezing. Majority of the state should see melting snow. The ridge quickly moves east with another trough bringing precipitation by mid next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Possible IFR cigs/vsbys northwest into south central ND late tonight into Saturday morning. Isolated to scattered snow showers have dissipated. A band of low VFR ceilings over southeast MT into southwest ND will push slowly east toward KDIK. Scattered VFR clouds also over northern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Generally expect VFR conditions through the late evening. There are some indications of some IFR CIGS/VSBYs late tonight into Saturday morning, possibly impacting KXWA, KBIS and KDIK. At this time we will not add fog to the TAFS as mesoscale models seem a bit too aggressive with the extent of low clouds/ceilings but will monitor for possible addition to the 06Z TAFS. A Northwest flow late this evening will diminish late tonight and winds will shift southeast from west to east during the day Saturday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...Johnson LONG TERM...Johnson AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
953 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to the south of the area will remain in control for much of today. A front will develop to the north of Lake Erie and slide southeast tonight and take most of Saturday to clear the area. Canadian high pressure will build into the region for Sunday. A low pressure system will enter the Great Lakes region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 9:30 PM Update: Adjusted POPs at the onset of precip over the next several hours...minor tweaks, just brought it in a bit quicker from the southwest based on upstream trends, and slowed down the higher POPs just a smidge near Toledo. Sharpened up the temperature and wind grids in the vicinity of the cold front, which is surging south a bit quicker than earlier, now extending from roughly Upper Sandusky to Medina to Burton to Meadville. Front may briefly get hung up around midnight near route 30 before flushing south into the early morning hours. 6:30 PM Update: Winds have decreased across the region as the cold front sags southward off of the lake. Still may see a couple higher gusts across the southern CWA of 30 to 35 mph through 9 pm. Cold front located from Bowling green to Sandusky to near Cleveland then eastward up the lake toward Buffalo. Most of the rain is lagging the cold front a bit with the dry air at the surface. The atmosphere doesnt really saturate until north of the 850 mb boundary with the greatest focus of the rainfall near the 700 mb boundary. This all sags slowly southward through the evening with rain eventually spreading across much of the area overnight. Previous Discussion... Deep boundary-layer mixing has resulted in windy conditions this afternoon with numerous ASOS reporting peak southwest wind gusts in the mid to upper 30 kts. With hi- res guidance suggesting potential for wind gusts of 40+ kts through the next couple hours, will let the Wind Advisory continue. While the advisory technically goes through 00Z, it`s likely advisory- level winds are likely to end pretty quickly after 22Z, and thus its probable that the advisory can be cancelled early. A cold front extending from a far-off surface low (located over the Georgian Bay) will propogate southeastward across the area this evening and into tonight. The strong LLJ that was responsible for gusty surface winds this afternoon will provide moderate moisture advection to the region, with 12Z NAM PWAT values reaching 0.6-0.8" by this evening. Synoptic scale forcing associated with an upstream upper-level trough and a pair of 100 kts upper-level jet streaks will result in the development of isolated to scattered rain showers this evening, becoming more widespread tonight. While moisture content isn`t particularly high, synoptic forcing is more than enough to have high confidence in widespread measurable precipitation, so have opted to include at least a period of 80-100% PoPs for the entire CWA. Generally expecting at least 0.1" QPF everywhere with upwards of 0.5"+, particularly for parts of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania where precipitation may be more persistent. The back edge of the precipitation will sharply end late Saturday morning through early afternoon from northwest to southeast. Northwest flow ensues Saturday night with cold air aloft (850mb temps down to -12 C), resulting in a sfc-850mb difference of 15-20 C. This combined with steep low-level lapse rates and stream of differential vorticity advection, should result in scattered lake-effect showers for parts of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Saturday evening through Saturday night. Daytime temperatures in the mid to upper 40s will drop down to the low 30s and upper 20s by early Sunday morning, resulting in lake effect starting as rain, eventually transitioning to all snow Saturday night. Snow accumulations of at least a light dusting are expected, though depending on how quickly the temperature drops, there is some potential for some spots to record 1-3" of snow, particularly for the higher elevation areas of the snowbelt. Ashtabula, inland Erie, and Crawford are the areas most likely to record measurable snowfall. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Upper level low pressure system over the northeastern United States will quickly exit to the east Sunday night allowing an upper level ridge to follow from the west over the local area. This will result in a surface pressure center building southeast through the eastern Great Lakes to the New England Coast by Monday morning. Surface low pressure will move northeast into the eastern Ohio Valley in response to a weak shortwave trough moving northeast across the area. The weak surface low will shift to the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday evening and another low will develop over eastern Ontario, Canada. A cold front is expected to sweep southeast across the area Monday night ushering in colder air to the region. As these weather features interact with the local area, moisture will stream north within the system. A threat for showers will increase Monday night and continue into Tuesday with a mix of rain/snow showers Monday night across the area in the cold air advection pattern. Mainly rain expected Tuesday. Temperatures will be nearly steady through the period as no real strong cold air masses are expected to affect the area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Deep upper level low pressure to the north of the area will keep the forecast area in cyclonic flow through Tuesday night. Ridging will begin to take place Wednesday allowing the surface trough and cold air advection to start retreating to the east of the area. As the surface high builds east through the Ohio Valley, a return southerly flow will develop over the area by Wednesday night. Cold air advection will be cutoff allowing warm air into the forecast area Wednesday night through Thursday night. A bit of a set-back will take place Thursday night late as a weak cold front settles south over the region and then east of the area. Another ridge will build east and then bring a surge of warmer air to the area by the end of the week heading into the weekend. In the meantime, residual moisture leftover Tuesday night will shift east ending the threat for showers across the area as drier air infiltrates the region. Otherwise, next shot of rain arrives Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Fair weather should then persist into Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Winds quickly subsiding as the sun sets and mixing ends. Cold front has pushed through TOL, CLE, and ERI and brought winds around to the NW. Winds may back and veer a bit through the night at those sites but will generally be in the 5-12kt range and out of the W to NW. Front will gradually sag through FDY, MFD, CAK and YNG through 6z and quickly veer winds to light NWrly. Winds will be W or WNW through Saturday and may gust to 20-25 knots in the afternoon, especially at TOL, FDY and MFD. Showers will overspread the TAF sites from the west/northwest between 2-6z this evening. Cigs will take some time to drop to MVFR as they`re starting high and the low-levels are dry ahead of the rain. Did go ahead and bring MVFR cigs in everywhere a few hours after the rain starts at a given location. Some showers may be moderate and humidity increases enough by pre- dawn Saturday that at least brief MVFR visibility was included at all sites except for KTOL, KFDY and KMFD too. There is minimal risk for cigs or visibility to drop to IFR at TOL and FDY, and they should improve back to VFR conditions fairly quickly from NW to SE Saturday morning. Flight conditions will be comparably poor farther east. Based on upstream conditions, did not go as pessimistic as GLAMP, AWC, or HRRR guidance on cigs and vis anywhere. Dew points will be cooler than the lake water so feel guidance may have too much low stratus advecting off the lake, and am not seeing a bunch of low clouds upstream in the airmass that will be in place Saturday AM. That said, kept MFD MVFR cigs and visibility, but acknowledge that brief IFR cigs cannot be ruled out around 12z Saturday per guidance. Similar story at KCAK, though brought cigs right to 1000 feet for a few hours around 12z. Did bring brief IFR cigs to YNG, but still leaned a bit higher on those than guidance. For KCLE, all guidance is fairly insistent on IFR cigs and perhaps visibility for several hours between about 8-13z Saturday with some suggestion of LIFR cigs. For reasons discussed above, don`t buy such low cigs or visibility, but did go IFR for that window and brought cigs as low as 500 feet for a few hours...brought conditions up as quickly as felt comfortable with after rain ends. Was most pessimistic at KERI given colder lake up that way and have LIFR cigs for a few hours with a slower improvement into Saturday afternoon. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain/snow showers Saturday night into Sunday morning, especially extreme NE OH and NW PA. Non-VFR possible Monday and Monday night in periods of rain. && .MARINE... Update: Winds over the lake have diminished enough to allow the Small Craft Advisory expire. Previous discussion below. Small craft advisory will now be in effect until 8 PM this evening as winds are expected to remain gusty through this time period. Winds diminish after sunset as a weak wave of low pressure moves northeast into the local area tonight. Surface low pressure should remain just east of the lake Saturday and northeast of the area Saturday night. Meanwhile, westerly flow is expected to become gradually more breezy as the flow shifts to the northwest Saturday night. Light and variable winds will prevail over the latter half of the weekend as winds become southeast by Monday. Not real favorable for a small craft advisory during that time due to the offshore flow. Although, as winds increase Monday night into Tuesday and winds becoming northwest, expect winds in the 15 to 25 knot range. A small craft advisory will likely be needed Monday night into Tuesday. Wednesday is shaping up to see light and variable winds again. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM/Saunders NEAR TERM...MM/Saunders/Sullivan SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Lombardy
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
832 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 .UPDATE...(831 PM MDT) A band of light snow has continues to impact areas along and near the WY/CO border this evening. This band has been undulating north and south over the past several hours bringing some light snow with accumulation on the grassy surfaces and turning most roadways wet. WYDOT cameras in these areas confirm the ongoing snow and wet roadways. Decided to increase precipitation chances this evening and expand them further east, following I-80. Additionally, we will be watching for the slight chance for some patchy fog that may develop this evening. With the area precipitation moistening up the boundary layer and with winds holding an east to east-northwest direction, upslope low stratus has developed and has been expanding in coverage per the night fog satellite image over the past hour. Current the ASOS at the Cheyenne airport is reporting a 400 foot cloud deck. We will continue to monitor trends through the evening and may have to add fog to forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 KCYS radar shows similar conditions compared to the past two days. Scattered showers across the CWA with some brief reduced visibilities in falling snow, primarily west of the Laramie Range and the northern part of the CWA. Temperatures east of the Laramie Range in extreme southeast Wyoming and the southern Nebraska panhandle are fairly warm, so rain showers are expected. Maybe even a rumble of thunder or two is possible as RAP surface-based CAPE shows some isolated areas with over 1000 J/kg. Hi-Res models show shower activity diminishing this evening. Widespread highs in the 50s are expected Saturday as the CWA receives some much welcome WAA from southwesterly flow aloft. Yet another round of precipitation is expected Saturday afternoon and night as a fast moving shortwave clips the region Saturday night. The mountains will develop snow showers while the lower elevations will likely see rain showers due to the warmer temperatures. Can`t rule out some rumbles of thunder with these showers as elevated CAPE will likely exist. By early Sunday morning, conditions will start to dry out. The Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges will have picked up a few inches of snow, while the lower elevations will pick up little to no accumulation. The main story late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon will actually be the threat of high winds. Saturday night`s shortwave will strengthen low-level pressure gradients across the CWA. Models show impressive mountain wave signatures with very strong downward omegas over the Laramie Range. Midnight shift issued High Wind Watches for the wind prone areas of the CWA (ARL, BRX, south Laramie Range). Felt confident enough to expand these watches into the eastern plains, including central Laramie County and east Platte County as breaking mountain waves could easily send 60 kt 750 mb flow down to the surface. Strongest wind potential looks to be Sunday morning, with winds gradually easing during the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Upper ridging for Sunday night into Monday builds back into the area. Ridge axis passes across the CWA Monday afternoon with winds shifting back to the west. Very warm 700mb temperatures by Tuesday morning...climbing to +7C from -2 to -3C Monday morning. As expected...700mb winds begin to pick up Tuesday with ridge axis to the east. Did up winds in the wind prone areas for Tuesday as GFS 700mb winds up near 45-50kts. Could be seeing another high wind event for the wind prone areas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Strong shortwave passes north of Wyoming Wednesday that could prolong the high winds over southeast Wyoming through Wednesday. Need to be on the lookout for the end of next week as the GFS showing strong low pressure tracking across northern Colorado. Would put us in a good area for heavy snow should the track pan out. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 816 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Update: A band of rain and snow has formed near KCYS and has substantially moistened the lower atmosphere over the last few hours, leading to low stratus dipping into the LIFR range. Model guidance is handling this very poorly and continues to dry out much faster than what we have been seeing, which introduces significant uncertainty to the upcoming forecast. With easterly winds and a nearly saturated airmass at the surface, leaning towards that this might be more persistent than expected earlier. We may see the clouds lift a bit as the winds become more southerly after midnight, but there is relatively low confidence. Elsewhere, flight conditions should remain mostly VFR but some dips to MVFR CIGs are possible. S to SE winds developing across the area Saturday late morning with gusts 25 to 30 MPH possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Minimal fire weather concerns today and Saturday with a chance for rain and snow showers along with coolish temperatures. Some isolated thunder may accompany these showers across southeast Wyoming each afternoon. Fire weather concerns increase late this weekend and into next week with warmer temperatures, lower relative humidity values, and gusty winds nearly every afternoon through Wednesday of next week. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for WYZ106-110-116-117. High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for WYZ107-118. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AW SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...MN FIRE WEATHER...TJT
National Weather Service Eureka CA
245 PM PDT Fri Apr 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS...An unsettled weather pattern will occur across the region through much of next week. This pattern will yield periods of beneficial rain for many locations, as well as gusty coastal winds and interior mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION...A low pressure system just outside 130W west of Pt Arena will track eastward tonight. Moist southwesterly flow has been increasing through the day in advance of the low, with a broad swath of 30 to 40dBz returns spreading over the area this afternoon. Over-running precipitation with this low pressure system will develop late this afternoon through this evening and then peak overnight. Highest chances for accumulating snow of 4 inches or more in 12 hours will be above 3500 to 4000 feet over northern Trinity and Siskiyou mountains. The Trinity Alps will most likely have close to 10 inches in 12 hours. Considering the pre-existing cold/dry air mass in place today and the cooling with upslope southwest flow, there is a 20-30% chance for some wet snow mixed with rain down to 2000-3000 feet in northern Humbodlt, northern Trinity and NE Del Norte counties. HRRR and NAM12 indicate snow levels near 2000 feet along the Del Norte/Oregon Border, however each hourly run of the HRRR has been fluctuating around every so slightly. Small differences of just a couple hundred feet will make or break the snow forecast. Looking at the multi-model guidance, there is 50% chance for 2 inches or more in 12 hours on Highway 199 near Collier Tunnel. That probability drops to about 16% for Berry Summit, 4% for Oregon Mountain Summit and 0% for Buckhorn Summit. Some wet snow mixed with rain is not completely out of the question down to 2000-2500 feet tonight, however the chances are not high enough to warrant changes to the existing winter weather advisories. Otherwise we are store for another good soaking of rain tonight. We posted a weather story graphic of estimated rain and snow amounts for tonight, Southerly winds may gust to 20 to 30 mph this evening and overnight across Mendocino and Lake counties before shifting rapidly to the north on Saturday. Speeds will likely remain well below advisory thresholds. Precipitation will begin to wind down on Saturday. Some rain/snow showers may linger over the mountains into the afternoon hours, but by evening all activity should end. The potential for frost and freezing temperatures will increase Saturday night/Sunday morning again. The air mass will not be exceptionally cold in the wake of this front, but northerly winds should pick up in the afternoon and evening and provide some drying. Soundings indicate a dry wedge with single digit RH`s spreading above 2-3kft during the afternoon on Saturday. Multi-model guidance has considerable cloud cover spreading over the area Sat night and Sun. This is most likely high cloud and probably overdone. Also, there will probably be some low clouds and fog in the valleys and temperatures may end up higher warmer than the multi model ensemble guidance. Multi-model guidance indicates probabilities above 50% for 32F or lower in many interior valleys. Frost and freeze concerns will linger into Monday morning if clouds do not thicken up considerably Sunday night. An active and fairly wet weather pattern will persist all of next week. On Monday, another frontal system will approach the coast and generate gusty southerly winds. Latest deterministic guidance has a 925mb speed max (50-60kt) developing in advance of this front. Multi-model probabilities for southerly wind gusts of 40 mph or more increase above 50% over coastal headlands of Del Norte county, higher elevations Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties as well as the King Range. Additional beneficial rain and potentially strong south wind gusts (40 mph or more) are expected for mid to latter next week. Increased flow on main stem rivers are expected with each of these rain episodes, however the chance for stages to exceed monitor level is highly unlikely. && .AVIATION...A moist southwesterly flow is promoting showers to move into northern Mendocino this afternoon and will continue increasing across Northwest California during the evening. Expect VFR to MVFR conditions at all TAF terminals as result. Late tonight, rain will peak in intensity to yield in periods of IFR conditions at the terminals, particularly over KACV where briefs LIFR are not ruled out. Winds are mainly from NW around 10 kts along the coast through this evening, then becoming southerlies as a frontal boundary moves through and aid in gusty winds at KUKI. In addition, downslope winds will promote low level wind shear from 1607Z/1615Z at KUKI. && .MARINE...Winds have diminished over the coastal waters to gentle breezes as another low pressure system approaches. The low pressure system looks likely to come ashore around Mendocino County tomorrow morning. Throughout early tomorrow morning, fresh to strong breezes with near gale gusts and localized gale gusts are likely, especially in the southern waters. As the low moves through the southern waters, the fresh to strong breezes will be northeasterly north of the low and southerly south of the low. Slightly elevated and short period seas may develop where the winds are strongest. Northerly winds are forecast to redevelop after the passing of the low pressure system and will diminish into Saturday evening and night. Winds are forecast to turn southerly by Sunday afternoon and strengthen ahead of another low pressure system that is part of a larger system moving east toward British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Various models indicate that throughout Monday, southerlies are expected to strengthen to near gale winds with gale gusts. Elevated and short period seas are expected to develop. Winds will quickly drop off into Monday night after the passage of the low pressure system. A previously strong northwest swell continues to decay throughout the rest of the week. In general, wave heights are expected to diminish through the weekend, but look to increase with the increase in winds into next week. Another westerly swell is expected by Tuesday. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ107-108. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ102. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon PDT Saturday for PZZ455-475. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
520 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 334 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Red Flag Warning for Cheyenne (CO), Greeley and Wichita counties was allowed to end early as cooler than previously expected temperatures allowed RH values to remain well above critical fire weather criteria; additional cloud cover is expected off of the Front Range further increasing RH values before the previously expected expiration time. Sporadic wind gusts up to 25 mph are possible through sunset, despite not meeting critical fire weather criteria, any burning is highly discouraged due to the overall dry nature of the entire area. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 256 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Zonal flow is dominating the mid and upper levels resulting in mainly clear skies, other than some lingering high clouds across Red Willow County. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Greeley, Wichita, and Cheyenne (CO) counties until 7pm. There was some thought in to ending it early as ENE winds are advecting cooler temperatures into the area resulting in struggling to warm. The reason for keeping it, is the close proximity of a warmer and somewhat breezier airmass that is situated in nearby counties of Kiowa, Prowers, Bent in Colorado along with Hamilton and Stanton in Kansas where RH values are in the mid to low teens and gusts have been of 25-30 mph. Temperatures have been rising a bit more quickly the past 1-2 hours so will continue so will continue to monitor for the fire weather conditions. Overall for the area, as mentioned before, the ENE winds have had a great impact on the warming of the area. Despite the full sun and lack of clouds temperatures have struggled to make into the low 50s. As a result opted for a blend of the RAP and HRRR which have had a better handle on the cooler than expected temperatures. Overnight temperatures will again be well below normal with lows in the 20s. Cloud cover is expected to move off of the Rockies with a weak wave which may help limit the amount of radiational cooling that may occur. Weak ridging moves over the plains as winds become more southeasterly but breezy with gusts up to 35 mph at times. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies are expected which will make it feel chilly, especially for mid April but will give us a day off from any fire weather potential. Guidance is strongly showing mid 50s for highs but with the cloud cover and easterly wind component I feel this may be to warm, especially after what has occurred thus far today so opted to go with a blend of a cooler 25th percentile temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s which may still be to warm. A weak wave moves off of the front range overnight Saturday which brings a slight chance of rain, rain/snow mix to northern counties. Very little to no amounts of precipitation is currently expected. Moisture increases after 06Z Sunday with the southeasterly wind as some forecast soundings and HREF cloud cover indicate some low stratus and perhaps localized areas of fog moving up towards the Goodland, Burlington area around sunrise.The window for any fog development however looks very small as a trough with an associated wind shift moves from the NW moves through just after sunrise. For Sunday, the above mentioned trough moves through during the morning hours and brings breezy to gusty winds with it as forecast soundings indicate sustained winds of 20-30 knots with gusts as high as 40 knots are possible with the passage. A few variables are associated with introducing the higher gusts in the forecast as there is very weak to no pressure rises behind the front and very little in the way of cold air advection to help bring the stronger winds down; nevertheless the low level wind field (up to 800 mb)supports wind gusts up to 30 knots. The breezy winds will remain all day as drier air moves in from the NW behind the wind shift, resulting in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions along and north of a Tribune to McCook line. There may be an hour or two of critical fire weather conditions especially over east Colorado. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s across the area as overnight lows fall into the upper 20s to low 30s across the area. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 235 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 A progressive synoptic pattern is progged over the CONUS next week. Long range guidance suggests that the primary belt of mid- latitude westerlies -- and majority of shortwave energy -- will be relegated to higher latitudes (> 40N) through most of the long term period.. and that predominately dry conditions will persist through Thu. By the end of the week.. long range guidance suggests that the synoptic pattern will undergo abrupt amplification -- in the form of a deep /full-latitude/ trough -- progressing eastward from the Pacific Coast (Thu) to the Intermountain West/Rockies (Fri) and central CONUS (Sat). If this is the case -- significant /high- impact/ weather (e.g. wind, severe convection) is a distinct possibility. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 518 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Light northeast surface winds tonight will turn southeast on Saturday around surface high pressure centered over the northern plains. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TT SHORT TERM...TT LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...024
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1048 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update/Marine .UPDATE... Issued at 1048 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Wind Advisory expired several hours ago at 800pm in portions of the eastern CWA. Winds have diminished considerably since sunset, with most winds at or below 10 knots at this time. Rain is on the verge of exiting the far southern CWA and should be south and east of Jackson County by 100 AM. By 800 AM we expect clearing in all areas as the clouds currently in the southern CWA move to the south and east. Normal lows for tonight are in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees and we will be about 10 degrees below normal by morning. Lows will range from the mid 20s north to near freezing south tonight. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 345 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 - Showers this evening then clearing A shortwave and it`s associated speed max are causing lift over our southern and central CWA this evening. While dew points are well below freezing the wet bulb zero height is expected to stay just high enough to keep this mostly rain. Do not be surprised if you see a few snow flakes through after sunset but whatever snow does fall it should not amount to much. Expect some measurable precipitation near south of I-96 early this evening. The heaviest precipitation will be near I-69. Skies should clear after midnight once this system tracks east of this area. That allows a large surface high to build into the area. All areas should have lows below freezing. Northern area could see low near to below 20 degrees. - Cold Saturday, some flurries possible north The coldest air of this current weather pattern will move through Michigan on Saturday. The polar jet is well south of Michigan and there is a northern stream shortwave that tries to dig into Northern Michigan during the day. There will be a shallow unstable layer so a few flurries are possible from I-96 north, inland of Lake Michigan. Highs will struggle to get to 40 degrees. That is nearly 20 degrees below normal now. Saturday evening the polar jet moves east of our area so we start a slight warm up. That should clear the skies and allow for the coldest night of this event. Lows should get into the teens over our NE CWA and mostly in the mid 20s elsewhere. - Increasing clouds by dry on Easter Sunday Easter Sunday we find mostly sunny skies to start the day due to shortwave ridging. However the next system will be approaching us and that will bring increasing clouds. It will be warmer but still highs will around 10 degrees below normal. - Next System may bring snow Monday A fairly strong shortwave moves onshore of the CONUS West Coast on Saturday. That has a digging jet (130 knots at 300 mb) that will cause the upper wave to go negative tilt. While we will not have enough time to bring in a lot of Gulf moisture with this the strong dynamic forcing will be enough to cause precipitation late Sunday night into Monday. The thickness cooling from the digging shortwave will be just enough to cool the air enough for this to be mostly snow at the start. It should warm enough to at least mix the snow with rain during the day time of Monday. Since the system does go negative tilt and the back edge of the upper jet does not cross our area until midday Tuesday I would expect lingering precipitation to change back to snow by evening. Snow showers could continue into Tuesday morning. Some snow accumulations are possible with this system. At this time of year it is always a battle between snowfall rate and day time heating. Even so expect some snow on grassy areas Monday morning and again Monday night. - Rain mid week than warming toward the weekend Once that system moves out we get a short break before the next Pacific system moves in late Wednesday into Thursday. This should mostly rain as this system should not have as much cold air with it. Behind that a much bigger Pacific storm will build a large shortwave ridge in front of it. That should give us 2 to 3 days of quiet weather and a significant warm up. That of course would get us to the weekend of the 23rd. Maybe much of the area could have highs near or above 70 by Saturday the 23rd? && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 828 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 VFR weather is expected the next 24 hours. The light rain that is falling over Southern Lower Michigan will end at all of our TAF sites by midnight. Lower clouds will clear out tonight with only some scattered to broken mid and high clouds expected overnight. Some lower ceilings will spread in from the north on Saturday, but even these will remain VFR at 4,000 to 6,000ft. Winds will taper off considerably in the next hour or so with sunset occurring at this time. Overnight, winds should generally be 10 knots or less. Expect another increase in wind on Saturday after about 15z with west to northwest winds of 15-30 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1048 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Southern portions of the Small Craft Advisory expired at 1000 PM with areas north of Whitehall remaining in the advisory through Saturday. The SCA is somewhat marginal and will be reevaluated overnight. The HRRR winds would suggest that we may need to expand it south as winds and waves increase on Saturday. At this time decided to leave the advisory as is and we will make changes if necessary overnight. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ848-849. && $$ UPDATE...Duke DISCUSSION...WDM AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Duke