Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/16/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

 1039 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

The main forecast issue this evening is the potential for some
patchy fog over portions of the west and south central late
tonight into early Saturday morning. The RAP and HRRR have been
pretty bullish in developing an area of low cigs/vsbys from
northwest into south central ND late tonight. This seems a bit
overdone and has already backed off an hour on the initial
development. However, given the cold forecast low temperatures
and the position of the surface high over western ND Saturday
morning, think there is some potential for some patchy fog in low
lying and protected areas. Surface moisture seems limited and
since there wasn`t much melting today, will leave things as patchy
for now and if RAP/HRRR are correct the overnight shift can adjust
accordingly. No additional changes were warranted. Kept the
previous forecast lows, mostly in the single digits.

UPDATE Issued at 549 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

We adjusted sky cover and pops based on latest radar and satellite
imagery. Current diurnally driven snow showers in cyclonic flow
aloft look like they will linger into the early evening. A
shortwave approaching the western ND border also may help keep
snow showers lingering in the west. Updated text products will be
transmitted shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Snow flurries will continue across portions of central and eastern
North Dakota from Lake Sakakawea. Scattered cumulus clouds are
going to continue to fill in this afternoon. The high temperature
in Bismarck has only reached 24 so far setting the pace to break
the previous record cold high of 32 set in 2011. Surface high
pressure over eastern Montana is forecast to move into the western
portion of the state resulting in clearing skies and light winds
tonight. Optimal radiational cooling is going to help low
temperatures drop down into the single digits. However, light
winds will prevent dangerous wind chills. The forecast low
temperature for Bismarck is 7 tomorrow morning potentially beating
the record low temperature of 10 set in 1955. Saturday, an upper
level ridge will settle over the Northern Plains bringing forth
westerly flow to the surface. Westerly winds are going to advect
cold air from snow pack over eastern Montana helping the region
stay cold. Therefore, Saturday`s high temperatures are forecast to
stay in the mid 20s. Surface high pressure will progress eastward
ushering in a north south pressure gradient bringing back
southerly flow into the region. This all ahead of another system
in the long term.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Easter Sunday a short wave trough will trek across the Northern
Plains bringing precipitation into North Dakota. Model soundings
show ample lift in the mid levels as the low moves approaches the
state. Majority of the precipitation will fall as snow and maybe a
rain snow mix for the southern portion of the state. Areas likely
to see the greater accumulations are northern portion of the
state. Ensembles are highlighting snow accumulations of 3 to 5
inches with locally higher amounts possible. A front associated
with the low will bring pressure rises leading to gusty winds. In
addition, model cross sections show 40kts mixing to the surface by
21Z for the central portion of the state. Therefore post frontal
winds should linger through the evening.

Luckily by Monday majority of precipitation should be out of the
region. An upper level ridge is going to follow in the wake of the
aforementioned trough. Tuesday will see increasing upper level
heights and warming temperatures.Temperatures could climb into the
40s for the southern portion of the state while the northern
portion will warm above freezing. Majority of the state should see
melting snow. The ridge quickly moves east with another trough
bringing precipitation by mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Possible IFR cigs/vsbys northwest into south central ND late
tonight into Saturday morning.

Isolated to scattered snow showers have dissipated. A band of low
VFR ceilings over southeast MT into southwest ND will push slowly
east toward KDIK. Scattered VFR clouds also over northern and
eastern portions of the forecast area. Generally expect VFR
conditions through the late evening. There are some indications
of some IFR CIGS/VSBYs late tonight into Saturday morning,
possibly impacting KXWA, KBIS and KDIK. At this time we will not
add fog to the TAFS as mesoscale models seem a bit too aggressive
with the extent of low clouds/ceilings but will monitor for
possible addition to the 06Z TAFS. A Northwest flow late this
evening will diminish late tonight and winds will shift southeast
from west to east during the day Saturday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...TWH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Cleveland OH

 953 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the south of the area will remain in control
for much of today. A front will develop to the north of Lake
Erie and slide southeast tonight and take most of Saturday to
clear the area. Canadian high pressure will build into the
region for Sunday. A low pressure system will enter the Great
Lakes region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
9:30 PM Update: Adjusted POPs at the onset of precip over the
next several hours...minor tweaks, just brought it in a bit
quicker from the southwest based on upstream trends, and slowed
down the higher POPs just a smidge near Toledo. Sharpened up
the temperature and wind grids in the vicinity of the cold
front, which is surging south a bit quicker than earlier, now
extending from roughly Upper Sandusky to Medina to Burton to
Meadville. Front may briefly get hung up around midnight near
route 30 before flushing south into the early morning hours.

6:30 PM Update: Winds have decreased across the region as the
cold front sags southward off of the lake. Still may see a
couple higher gusts across the southern CWA of 30 to 35 mph
through 9 pm.

Cold front located from Bowling green to Sandusky to near
Cleveland then eastward up the lake toward Buffalo. Most of the
rain is lagging the cold front a bit with the dry air at the
surface. The atmosphere doesnt really saturate until north of
the 850 mb boundary with the greatest focus of the rainfall near
the 700 mb boundary. This all sags slowly southward through the
evening with rain eventually spreading across much of the area
overnight.

Previous Discussion...
Deep boundary-layer mixing has resulted in windy conditions
this afternoon with numerous ASOS reporting peak southwest wind
gusts in the mid to upper 30 kts. With hi- res guidance
suggesting potential for wind gusts of 40+ kts through the next
couple hours, will let the Wind Advisory continue. While the
advisory technically goes through 00Z, it`s likely advisory-
level winds are likely to end pretty quickly after 22Z, and thus
its probable that the advisory can be cancelled early.

A cold front extending from a far-off surface low (located over
the Georgian Bay) will propogate southeastward across the area
this evening and into tonight. The strong LLJ that was
responsible for gusty surface winds this afternoon will provide
moderate moisture advection to the region, with 12Z NAM PWAT
values reaching 0.6-0.8" by this evening. Synoptic scale forcing
associated with an upstream upper-level trough and a pair of
100 kts upper-level jet streaks will result in the development
of isolated to scattered rain showers this evening, becoming
more widespread tonight. While moisture content isn`t
particularly high, synoptic forcing is more than enough to have
high confidence in widespread measurable precipitation, so have
opted to include at least a period of 80-100% PoPs for the
entire CWA. Generally expecting at least 0.1" QPF everywhere
with upwards of 0.5"+, particularly for parts of northeast Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania where precipitation may be more
persistent. The back edge of the precipitation will sharply end
late Saturday morning through early afternoon from northwest to
southeast.

Northwest flow ensues Saturday night with cold air aloft (850mb
temps down to -12 C), resulting in a sfc-850mb difference of
15-20 C. This combined with steep low-level lapse rates and
stream of differential vorticity advection, should result in
scattered lake-effect showers for parts of northeast Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania Saturday evening through Saturday night.
Daytime temperatures in the mid to upper 40s will drop down to
the low 30s and upper 20s by early Sunday morning, resulting in
lake effect starting as rain, eventually transitioning to all
snow Saturday night. Snow accumulations of at least a light
dusting are expected, though depending on how quickly the
temperature drops, there is some potential for some spots to
record 1-3" of snow, particularly for the higher elevation areas of
the snowbelt. Ashtabula, inland Erie, and Crawford are the
areas most likely to record measurable snowfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low pressure system over the northeastern United
States will quickly exit to the east Sunday night allowing an
upper level ridge to follow from the west over the local area.
This will result in a surface pressure center building southeast
through the eastern Great Lakes to the New England Coast by
Monday morning. Surface low pressure will move northeast into
the eastern Ohio Valley in response to a weak shortwave trough
moving northeast across the area. The weak surface low will
shift to the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday evening and another
low will develop over eastern Ontario, Canada. A cold front is
expected to sweep southeast across the area Monday night
ushering in colder air to the region. As these weather features
interact with the local area, moisture will stream north within
the system. A threat for showers will increase Monday night and
continue into Tuesday with a mix of rain/snow showers Monday
night across the area in the cold air advection pattern. Mainly
rain expected Tuesday. Temperatures will be nearly steady
through the period as no real strong cold air masses are
expected to affect the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep upper level low pressure to the north of the area will keep the
forecast area in cyclonic flow through Tuesday night. Ridging will
begin to take place Wednesday allowing the surface trough and cold
air advection to start retreating to the east of the area. As the
surface high builds east through the Ohio Valley, a return southerly
flow will develop over the area by Wednesday night. Cold air
advection will be cutoff allowing warm air into the forecast area
Wednesday night through Thursday night. A bit of a set-back will
take place Thursday night late as a weak cold front settles south
over the region and then east of the area. Another ridge will build
east and then bring a surge of warmer air to the area by the end of
the week heading into the weekend. In the meantime, residual
moisture leftover Tuesday night will shift east ending the threat
for showers across the area as drier air infiltrates the region.
Otherwise, next shot of rain arrives Wednesday night through
Thursday evening. Fair weather should then persist into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Winds quickly subsiding as the sun sets and mixing ends. Cold
front has pushed through TOL, CLE, and ERI and brought winds
around to the NW. Winds may back and veer a bit through the
night at those sites but will generally be in the 5-12kt range
and out of the W to NW. Front will gradually sag through FDY,
MFD, CAK and YNG through 6z and quickly veer winds to light
NWrly. Winds will be W or WNW through Saturday and may gust to
20-25 knots in the afternoon, especially at TOL, FDY and MFD.

Showers will overspread the TAF sites from the west/northwest
between 2-6z this evening. Cigs will take some time to drop to
MVFR as they`re starting high and the low-levels are dry ahead
of the rain. Did go ahead and bring MVFR cigs in everywhere a
few hours after the rain starts at a given location. Some
showers may be moderate and humidity increases enough by pre-
dawn Saturday that at least brief MVFR visibility was included
at all sites except for KTOL, KFDY and KMFD too. There is
minimal risk for cigs or visibility to drop to IFR at TOL and
FDY, and they should improve back to VFR conditions fairly
quickly from NW to SE Saturday morning.

Flight conditions will be comparably poor farther east. Based on
upstream conditions, did not go as pessimistic as GLAMP, AWC, or
HRRR guidance on cigs and vis anywhere. Dew points will be
cooler than the lake water so feel guidance may have too much
low stratus advecting off the lake, and am not seeing a bunch
of low clouds upstream in the airmass that will be in place
Saturday AM.

That said, kept MFD MVFR cigs and visibility, but acknowledge
that brief IFR cigs cannot be ruled out around 12z Saturday per
guidance. Similar story at KCAK, though brought cigs right to
1000 feet for a few hours around 12z. Did bring brief IFR cigs
to YNG, but still leaned a bit higher on those than guidance.
For KCLE, all guidance is fairly insistent on IFR cigs and
perhaps visibility for several hours between about 8-13z
Saturday with some suggestion of LIFR cigs. For reasons
discussed above, don`t buy such low cigs or visibility, but did
go IFR for that window and brought cigs as low as 500 feet for a
few hours...brought conditions up as quickly as felt
comfortable with after rain ends. Was most pessimistic at KERI
given colder lake up that way and have LIFR cigs for a few
hours with a slower improvement into Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain/snow showers Saturday night
into Sunday morning, especially extreme NE OH and NW PA. Non-VFR
possible Monday and Monday night in periods of rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Update: Winds over the lake have diminished enough to allow the
Small Craft Advisory expire. Previous discussion below.

Small craft advisory will now be in effect until 8 PM this
evening as winds are expected to remain gusty through this time
period. Winds diminish after sunset as a weak wave of low
pressure moves northeast into the local area tonight. Surface
low pressure should remain just east of the lake Saturday and
northeast of the area Saturday night. Meanwhile, westerly flow
is expected to become gradually more breezy as the flow shifts
to the northwest Saturday night. Light and variable winds will
prevail over the latter half of the weekend as winds become
southeast by Monday. Not real favorable for a small craft
advisory during that time due to the offshore flow. Although, as
winds increase Monday night into Tuesday and winds becoming
northwest, expect winds in the 15 to 25 knot range. A small
craft advisory will likely be needed Monday night into Tuesday.
Wednesday is shaping up to see light and variable winds again.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM/Saunders
NEAR TERM...MM/Saunders/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Lombardy



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Cheyenne WY

 832 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022

.UPDATE...(831 PM MDT) A band of light snow has continues to
impact areas along and near the WY/CO border this evening. This
band has been undulating north and south over the past several
hours bringing some light snow with accumulation on the grassy
surfaces and turning most roadways wet. WYDOT cameras in these
areas confirm the ongoing snow and wet roadways. Decided to
increase precipitation chances this evening and expand them
further east, following I-80.

Additionally, we will be watching for the slight chance for some
patchy fog that may develop this evening. With the area
precipitation moistening up the boundary layer and with winds
holding an east to east-northwest direction, upslope low stratus
has developed and has been expanding in coverage per the night fog
satellite image over the past hour. Current the ASOS at the
Cheyenne airport is reporting a 400 foot cloud deck. We will
continue to monitor trends through the evening and may have to add
fog to forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022

KCYS radar shows similar conditions compared to the past two days.
Scattered showers across the CWA with some brief reduced
visibilities in falling snow, primarily west of the Laramie Range
and the northern part of the CWA. Temperatures east of the Laramie
Range in extreme southeast Wyoming and the southern Nebraska
panhandle are fairly warm, so rain showers are expected. Maybe even
a rumble of thunder or two is possible as RAP surface-based CAPE
shows some isolated areas with over 1000 J/kg. Hi-Res models show
shower activity diminishing this evening.

Widespread highs in the 50s are expected Saturday as the CWA
receives some much welcome WAA from southwesterly flow aloft. Yet
another round of precipitation is expected Saturday afternoon and
night as a fast moving shortwave clips the region Saturday night.
The mountains will develop snow showers while the lower elevations
will likely see rain showers due to the warmer temperatures. Can`t
rule out some rumbles of thunder with these showers as elevated CAPE
will likely exist. By early Sunday morning, conditions will start to
dry out. The Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges will have picked up a few
inches of snow, while the lower elevations will pick up little to no
accumulation.

The main story late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon will
actually be the threat of high winds. Saturday night`s shortwave
will strengthen low-level pressure gradients across the CWA. Models
show impressive mountain wave signatures with very strong
downward omegas over the Laramie Range. Midnight shift issued High
Wind Watches for the wind prone areas of the CWA (ARL, BRX, south
Laramie Range). Felt confident enough to expand these watches
into the eastern plains, including central Laramie County and east
Platte County as breaking mountain waves could easily send 60 kt
750 mb flow down to the surface. Strongest wind potential looks to
be Sunday morning, with winds gradually easing during the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Upper ridging for Sunday night into Monday builds back into the
area. Ridge axis passes across the CWA Monday afternoon with winds
shifting back to the west. Very warm 700mb temperatures by Tuesday
morning...climbing to +7C from -2 to -3C Monday morning.

As expected...700mb winds begin to pick up Tuesday with ridge axis
to the east. Did up winds in the wind prone areas for Tuesday as
GFS 700mb winds up near 45-50kts. Could be seeing another high
wind event for the wind prone areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Strong shortwave passes north of Wyoming Wednesday that could
prolong the high winds over southeast Wyoming through Wednesday.

Need to be on the lookout for the end of next week as the GFS
showing strong low pressure tracking across northern Colorado.
Would put us in a good area for heavy snow should the track pan
out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 816 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Update: A band of rain and snow has formed near KCYS and has
substantially moistened the lower atmosphere over the last few
hours, leading to low stratus dipping into the LIFR range. Model
guidance is handling this very poorly and continues to dry out
much faster than what we have been seeing, which introduces
significant uncertainty to the upcoming forecast. With easterly
winds and a nearly saturated airmass at the surface, leaning
towards that this might be more persistent than expected earlier.
We may see the clouds lift a bit as the winds become more
southerly after midnight, but there is relatively low confidence.

Elsewhere, flight conditions should remain mostly VFR but some
dips to MVFR CIGs are possible. S to SE winds developing across
the area Saturday late morning with gusts 25 to 30 MPH possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Minimal fire weather concerns today and Saturday with a chance
for rain and snow showers along with coolish temperatures. Some
isolated thunder may accompany these showers across southeast
Wyoming each afternoon. Fire weather concerns increase late this
weekend and into next week with warmer temperatures, lower
relative humidity values, and gusty winds nearly every afternoon
through Wednesday of next week.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     afternoon for WYZ106-110-116-117.

     High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     afternoon for WYZ107-118.

NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AW
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MN
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Eureka CA

 245 PM PDT Fri Apr 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...An unsettled weather pattern will occur across the
region through much of next week. This pattern will yield periods
of beneficial rain for many locations, as well as gusty coastal
winds and interior mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A low pressure system just outside 130W west of
Pt Arena will track eastward tonight. Moist southwesterly flow
has been increasing through the day in advance of the low, with
a broad swath of 30 to 40dBz returns spreading over the area
this afternoon. Over-running precipitation with this low pressure
system will develop late this afternoon through this evening and
then peak overnight. Highest chances for accumulating snow of 4
inches or more in 12 hours will be above 3500 to 4000 feet over
northern Trinity and Siskiyou mountains. The Trinity Alps will
most likely have close to 10 inches in 12 hours. Considering the
pre-existing cold/dry air mass in place today and the cooling with
upslope southwest flow, there is a 20-30% chance for some wet
snow mixed with rain down to 2000-3000 feet in northern Humbodlt,
northern Trinity and NE Del Norte counties. HRRR and NAM12
indicate snow levels near 2000 feet along the Del Norte/Oregon
Border, however each hourly run of the HRRR has been fluctuating
around every so slightly. Small differences of just a couple
hundred feet will make or break the snow forecast. Looking at the
multi-model guidance, there is 50% chance for 2 inches or more in
12 hours on Highway 199 near Collier Tunnel. That probability
drops to about 16% for Berry Summit, 4% for Oregon Mountain
Summit and 0% for Buckhorn Summit. Some wet snow mixed with rain
is not completely out of the question down to 2000-2500 feet
tonight, however the chances are not high enough to warrant
changes to the existing winter weather advisories.

Otherwise we are store for another good soaking of rain tonight.
We posted a weather story graphic of estimated rain and snow
amounts for tonight, Southerly winds may gust to 20 to 30 mph this
evening and overnight across Mendocino and Lake counties before
shifting rapidly to the north on Saturday. Speeds will likely
remain well below advisory thresholds. Precipitation will begin to
wind down on Saturday. Some rain/snow showers may linger over the
mountains into the afternoon hours, but by evening all activity
should end.

The potential for frost and freezing temperatures will increase
Saturday night/Sunday morning again. The air mass will not be
exceptionally cold in the wake of this front, but northerly winds
should pick up in the afternoon and evening and provide some
drying. Soundings indicate a dry wedge with single digit RH`s
spreading above 2-3kft during the afternoon on Saturday.
Multi-model guidance has considerable cloud cover spreading over
the area Sat night and Sun. This is most likely high cloud and
probably overdone. Also, there will probably be some low clouds
and fog in the valleys and temperatures may end up higher warmer
than the multi model ensemble guidance. Multi-model guidance
indicates probabilities above 50% for 32F or lower in many
interior valleys. Frost and freeze concerns will linger into
Monday morning if clouds do not thicken up considerably Sunday
night.

An active and fairly wet weather pattern will persist all of next
week. On Monday, another frontal system will approach the coast
and generate gusty southerly winds. Latest deterministic guidance
has a 925mb speed max (50-60kt) developing in advance of this
front. Multi-model probabilities for southerly wind gusts of 40
mph or more increase above 50% over coastal headlands of Del Norte
county, higher elevations Del Norte and northern Humboldt
counties as well as the King Range. Additional beneficial rain and
potentially strong south wind gusts (40 mph or more) are expected
for mid to latter next week. Increased flow on main stem rivers
are expected with each of these rain episodes, however the chance
for stages to exceed monitor level is highly unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION...A moist southwesterly flow is promoting showers to move
into northern Mendocino this afternoon and will continue increasing
across Northwest California during the evening. Expect VFR to MVFR
conditions at all TAF terminals as result. Late tonight, rain will
peak in intensity to yield in periods of IFR conditions at the
terminals, particularly over KACV where briefs LIFR are not ruled
out. Winds are mainly from NW around 10 kts along the coast through
this evening, then becoming southerlies as a frontal boundary moves
through and aid in gusty winds at KUKI. In addition, downslope
winds will promote low level wind shear from 1607Z/1615Z at KUKI.

&&

.MARINE...Winds have diminished over the coastal waters to gentle
breezes as another low pressure system approaches. The low pressure
system looks likely to come ashore around Mendocino County tomorrow
morning. Throughout early tomorrow morning, fresh to strong breezes
with near gale gusts and localized gale gusts are likely, especially
in the southern waters. As the low moves through the southern
waters, the fresh to strong breezes will be northeasterly north of
the low and southerly south of the low. Slightly elevated and short
period seas may develop where the winds are strongest. Northerly
winds are forecast to redevelop after the passing of the low
pressure system and will diminish into Saturday evening and night.
Winds are forecast to turn southerly by Sunday afternoon and
strengthen ahead of another low pressure system that is part of a
larger system moving east toward British Columbia and the Pacific
Northwest. Various models indicate that throughout Monday,
southerlies are expected to strengthen to near gale winds with gale
gusts. Elevated and short period seas are expected to develop. Winds
will quickly drop off into Monday night after the passage of the low
pressure system. A previously strong northwest swell continues to
decay throughout the rest of the week. In general, wave heights are
expected to diminish through the weekend, but look to increase with
the increase in winds into next week. Another westerly swell is
expected by Tuesday.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM
     PDT Saturday for CAZ107-108.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT
     Saturday for CAZ102.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon PDT
     Saturday for PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Goodland KS

 520 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 334 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Red Flag Warning for Cheyenne (CO), Greeley and Wichita counties
was allowed to end early as cooler than previously expected
temperatures allowed RH values to remain well above critical fire
weather criteria; additional cloud cover is expected off of the
Front Range further increasing RH values before the previously
expected expiration time. Sporadic wind gusts up to 25 mph are
possible through sunset, despite not meeting critical fire weather
criteria, any burning is highly discouraged due to the overall
dry nature of the entire area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Zonal flow is dominating the mid and upper levels resulting in
mainly clear skies, other than some lingering high clouds across
Red Willow County. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for
Greeley, Wichita, and Cheyenne (CO) counties until 7pm. There was
some thought in to ending it early as ENE winds are advecting
cooler temperatures into the area resulting in struggling to warm.
The reason for keeping it, is the close proximity of a warmer and
somewhat breezier airmass that is situated in nearby counties of
Kiowa, Prowers, Bent in Colorado along with Hamilton and Stanton
in Kansas where RH values are in the mid to low teens and gusts
have been of 25-30 mph. Temperatures have been rising a bit more
quickly the past 1-2 hours so will continue so will continue to
monitor for the fire weather conditions. Overall for the area, as
mentioned before, the ENE winds have had a great impact on the
warming of the area. Despite the full sun and lack of clouds
temperatures have struggled to make into the low 50s. As a result
opted for a blend of the RAP and HRRR which have had a better
handle on the cooler than expected temperatures. Overnight
temperatures will again be well below normal with lows in the 20s.
Cloud cover is expected to move off of the Rockies with a weak
wave which may help limit the amount of radiational cooling that
may occur.

Weak ridging moves over the plains as winds become more
southeasterly but breezy with gusts up to 35 mph at times. Mostly
cloudy to overcast skies are expected which will make it feel
chilly, especially for mid April but will give us a day off from any
fire weather potential. Guidance is strongly showing mid 50s for
highs but with the cloud cover and easterly wind component I feel
this may be to warm, especially after what has occurred thus far
today so opted to go with a blend of a cooler 25th percentile
temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s which may still be to
warm. A weak wave moves off of the front range overnight Saturday
which brings a slight chance of rain, rain/snow mix to northern
counties. Very little to no amounts of precipitation is currently
expected. Moisture increases after 06Z Sunday with the
southeasterly wind as some forecast soundings and HREF cloud cover
indicate some low stratus and perhaps localized areas of fog
moving up towards the Goodland, Burlington area around sunrise.The
window for any fog development however looks very small as a
trough with an associated wind shift moves from the NW moves
through just after sunrise.

For Sunday, the above mentioned trough moves through during the
morning hours and brings breezy to gusty winds with it as forecast
soundings indicate sustained winds of 20-30 knots with gusts as high
as 40 knots are possible with the passage. A few variables are
associated with introducing the higher gusts in the forecast as
there is very weak to no pressure rises behind the front and very
little in the way of cold air advection to help bring the stronger
winds down; nevertheless the low level wind field (up to 800
mb)supports wind gusts up to 30 knots. The breezy winds will
remain all day as drier air moves in from the NW behind the wind
shift, resulting in elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions along and north of a Tribune to McCook line. There may
be an hour or two of critical fire weather conditions especially
over east Colorado. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the
mid 60s to low 70s across the area as overnight lows fall into the
upper 20s to low 30s across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022

A progressive synoptic pattern is progged over the CONUS next
week. Long range guidance suggests that the primary belt of mid-
latitude westerlies -- and majority of shortwave energy -- will be
relegated to higher latitudes (> 40N) through most of the long
term period.. and that predominately dry conditions will persist
through Thu.

By the end of the week.. long range guidance suggests that the
synoptic pattern will undergo abrupt amplification -- in the form
of a deep /full-latitude/ trough -- progressing eastward from the
Pacific Coast (Thu) to the Intermountain West/Rockies (Fri) and
central CONUS (Sat). If this is the case -- significant /high-
impact/ weather (e.g. wind, severe convection) is a distinct
possibility.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 518 PM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Light northeast surface winds tonight will turn southeast
on Saturday around surface high pressure centered over the
northern plains.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
SHORT TERM...TT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...024



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

 1048 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

LATEST UPDATE...
Update/Marine

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Wind Advisory expired several hours ago at 800pm in portions of
the eastern CWA. Winds have diminished considerably since sunset,
with most winds at or below 10 knots at this time. Rain is on the
verge of exiting the far southern CWA and should be south and east
of Jackson County by 100 AM. By 800 AM we expect clearing in all
areas as the clouds currently in the southern CWA move to the
south and east. Normal lows for tonight are in the upper 30s to
around 40 degrees and we will be about 10 degrees below normal by
morning. Lows will range from the mid 20s north to near freezing
south tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

- Showers this evening then clearing

A shortwave and it`s associated speed max are causing lift over
our southern and central CWA this evening. While dew points are
well below freezing the wet bulb zero height is expected to stay
just high enough to keep this mostly rain. Do not be surprised if
you see a few snow flakes through after sunset but whatever snow
does fall it should not amount to much. Expect some measurable
precipitation near south of I-96 early this evening. The heaviest
precipitation will be near I-69.

Skies should clear after midnight once this system tracks east of
this area. That allows a large surface high to build into the
area. All areas should have lows below freezing. Northern area
could see low near to below 20 degrees.

- Cold Saturday, some flurries possible north

The coldest air of this current weather pattern will move through
Michigan on Saturday. The polar jet is well south of Michigan and
there is a northern stream shortwave that tries to dig into
Northern Michigan during the day. There will be a shallow unstable
layer so a few flurries are possible from I-96 north, inland of
Lake Michigan. Highs will struggle to get to 40 degrees. That is
nearly 20 degrees below normal now.

Saturday evening the polar jet moves east of our area so we start
a slight warm up. That should clear the skies and allow for the
coldest night of this event. Lows should get into the teens over
our NE CWA and mostly in the mid 20s elsewhere.

- Increasing clouds by dry on Easter Sunday

Easter Sunday we find mostly sunny skies to start the day due to
shortwave ridging. However the next system will be approaching us
and that will bring increasing clouds. It will be warmer but still
highs will around 10 degrees below normal.

- Next System may bring snow Monday

A fairly strong shortwave moves onshore of the CONUS West Coast on
Saturday. That has a digging jet (130 knots at 300 mb) that will
cause the upper wave to go negative tilt. While we will not have
enough time to bring in a lot of Gulf moisture with this the
strong dynamic forcing will be enough to cause precipitation late
Sunday night into Monday. The thickness cooling from the digging
shortwave will be just enough to cool the air enough for this to
be mostly snow at the start. It should warm enough to at least mix
the snow with rain during the day time of Monday.

Since the system does go negative tilt and the back edge of the
upper jet does not cross our area until midday Tuesday I would
expect lingering precipitation to change back to snow by evening.
Snow showers could continue into Tuesday morning.

Some snow accumulations are possible with this system. At this
time of year it is always a battle between snowfall rate and
day time heating. Even so expect some snow on grassy areas Monday
morning and again Monday night.

- Rain mid week than warming toward the weekend

Once that system moves out we get a short break before the next
Pacific system moves in late Wednesday into Thursday. This should
mostly rain as this system should not have as much cold air with
it.

Behind that a much bigger Pacific storm will build a large
shortwave ridge in front of it. That should give us 2 to 3 days of
quiet weather and a significant warm up. That of course would get
us to the weekend of the 23rd. Maybe much of the area could have
highs near or above 70 by Saturday the 23rd?

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 828 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

VFR weather is expected the next 24 hours. The light rain that is
falling over Southern Lower Michigan will end at all of our TAF
sites by midnight. Lower clouds will clear out tonight with only
some scattered to broken mid and high clouds expected overnight.
Some lower ceilings will spread in from the north on Saturday, but
even these will remain VFR at 4,000 to 6,000ft.

Winds will taper off considerably in the next hour or so with
sunset occurring at this time. Overnight, winds should generally
be 10 knots or less. Expect another increase in wind on Saturday
after about 15z with west to northwest winds of 15-30 knots.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1048 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Southern portions of the Small Craft Advisory expired at 1000 PM
with areas north of Whitehall remaining in the advisory through
Saturday. The SCA is somewhat marginal and will be reevaluated
overnight. The HRRR winds would suggest that we may need to
expand it south as winds and waves increase on Saturday. At this
time decided to leave the advisory as is and we will make changes
if necessary overnight.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ848-849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Duke
DISCUSSION...WDM
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...Duke