Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/14/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 PM MDT Wed Apr 13 2022
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except possibly
at KLVS where smoke from a nearby wildfire will descend overnight and
may bring MVFR vsbys to the terminal Thursday morning. Otherwise,
gusty westerly flow will persist, although winds on Thursday
afternoon will be less than today.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...304 PM MDT Wed Apr 13 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures today have been cooler than normal due to yesterday`s
cold front, and many central to eastern areas of New Mexico remained
breezy to windy. Winds are forecast to decrease in speed around
sunset this evening with chilly overnight temperatures. The next
several days are expected to be dry with breezy to windy conditions
redeveloping just about every afternoon. Temperatures will warm
closer to seasonal readings on Thursday and should rise above normal
into Friday. Despite a couple of cold fronts entering eastern New
Mexico through the weekend and into early next week, the trend will
be for temperatures to generally stay above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
Strong WNW-ESE oriented jet is still situated over northern NM
today, and deep layer mixing has translated these strong wind speeds
to the surface this afternoon. The highest speeds of 40-50kts at H7
reside over the northern mountains where a rogue mountain wave wind
gust of 60mph was recorded at Raton. Where and if these stray gusts
reaching high wind warning criteria will hit in the area immediately
east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains remains a question, but
should remain isolated events. Will keep the wind highlights as they
are until they expire this evening. Otherwise, very dry conditions
and pockets of blowing dust will be the rule through the rest of
today. Winds will taper off near or just after sunset as the
atmosphere decouples. With clear to mostly clear skies, calmer
winds, and very dry air, radiational cooling will be very efficient
tonight allowing for another Freeze Warning Thursday morning for the
Middle Rio Grande Valley and ABQ Metro which has gone past its
average last freeze date. Meanwhile, the HRRR smoke model is
producing near surface smoke lingering around the Las Vegas to Wagon
Mound area late tonight into Thursday morning and have included this
in the forecast, as well as smoke in the Ruidoso area, which makes
sense given the overall weather setup. The question remains, how much
smoke will be produced however.
Meanwhile, flow aloft lessens and turns zonal Thursday. Wind speed
potential will be considerably less, but breezy to windy conditions
will remain along and east of the central mountain chain.
Temperatures also rise 10F-15F over today`s readings with highs
climbing to near normal areawide. Winds decouple again Thursday
night, with another round of near surface smoke around Las Vegas and
Ruidoso likely heading into the Long Term period.
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Stiff zonal flow aloft will persist into Friday with very dry
conditions persisting as parched mid level air mixes down to the
surface in the afternoon. The surface low will be present over
eastern NM in a broad orientation with a backdoor front staging over
eastern CO, southwestern KS and the OK panhandle late Friday. The
surface gradient will not be overly strong, but plenty sufficient for
assisting diurnal mixing with widespread breezy to windy conditions.
Per usual, the central mountains and highlands will observe the
strongest speeds with the east central to northeastern plains not
being very far behind, and this will pose concerns for additional
critical fire weather Friday afternoon.
The aforementioned backdoor cold front will slide into much of
eastern NM Friday night into Saturday morning, but latest model runs
are now indicating the boundary will stay dammed east of the central
mountain chain. Dewpoints look to rise into the 20`s and 30`s behind
the front, a large jump from where we are currently. Winds in the
plains look to veer and gain a southerly component into Saturday
afternoon, and there will be potential for the boundary to wash out
back toward the eastern NM border. The surface high pressure building
near this eastern border would disrupt and temper wind strength
there by the afternoon, but most western zones of NM would still
observe breezy to windy conditions.
The flow aloft may veer ever so slightly on Sunday as a gentle ridge
builds into the Great Basin. This might reduce speeds aloft
slightly, and the surface trough in eastern NM would be somewhat
subdued as it stands its ground and fends off the frontal boundary to
the east through the afternoon. This will keep surface winds a bit
lower than preceding days, but still breezy to locally windy. The
surface trough will succumb to the invasive backdoor cold front
Sunday night. This boundary would have the potential to advect even
more moisture than the Friday night boundary. Surface winds would
quickly veer south southeasterly in the plains Monday afternoon with
return flow from the Gulf of Mexico rapidly seeping in (surface
dewpoints possibly reaching the 40`s in our southeastern zones). This
could keep an outside chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm in
southeastern zones Monday afternoon into Monday night, but confidence
is low and only 10 percent POPs have been built into the forecast for
now.
Uncertainty increases for Tuesday and Wednesday with questions on
the fate of the moisture in the plains and the potential for another
backdoor cold front. However, these finer details are dependent on
how an upper low near the Canadian border will evolve with no clear
cut solution among deterministic model members yet.
24/52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...
With a strong jetmax reaching over northern and central NM, red flag
conditions will remain through this evening, then subside as wind
speeds taper off after sunset. Wind speeds will remain strongest for
the longest period into the evening at the higher elevations of the
northern mountains, and look to persist well into the night at
mountain top levels. Otherwise, another round of Red Flag Warnings
looks on tap for the northeastern and east-central plains Thursday.
Zonal flow aloft does weaken yielding a lower wind speed potential.
However, it remains strong enough with gusts of 25-35kts which will
be more than strong enough to combine with more critical humidity
and rising temperatures to near normal to warrant the upgrade of the
Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Thursday.
Friday will see more of the same temperatures rising to above
normal, and fire weather highlights look likely again for portions
of the eastern plains Friday afternoon. A backdoor cold front will
push into eastern NM Friday night into Saturday morning, bucking the
trend slightly. Cooler weather and higher humidity looks to bring
slight relief to the northeastern plains, perhaps into the FWZ-108
as well Saturday morning. However, westerly winds do look to push or
mix this boundary out by the afternoon, the question is by how much.
Otherwise, strengthening southwesterly flow, warmer temperatures,
and yet another day of critical humidity will still be present
through western and central NM Saturday afternoon.
Thereafter, continued weak disturbances will bring bouts of stronger
winds Sunday into next week. Backdoor cold fronts however look to
enter the eastern plains after these systems exit, so there does
look to be periods of better recoveries and lesser winds for the far
eastern plains at times next week.
24
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101>109.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ221-223.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for the following
zones... NMZ103-104-108.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
NMZ212>216-218-222-227>237.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for the following
zones... NMZ219.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
934 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect some scattered showers and thunderstorms around the
region this evening as a warm front continues to drift north of
the area. A cold front will push through the Finger Lakes late
Thursday morning, reaching the Hudson Valley by afternoon.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the
front, with stronger storms possible east of I-81. Drier weather
is expected Friday, with additional showers and cooler
temperatures arriving for Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
930 PM Update...
The second round of showers is just about out of the area and
it will likely be totally through by the top of the hour. The
main focus of this update was the PoPs. The 23z HRRR was used
for the next couple of hours. This does keep a sliver of chance
PoPs in far eastern Oneida, Otsego, Delaware in case this line
is not quite out of the region by the top of the hour. Then
just through a couple hours after midnight, a blend of updated
CAMs and the previous forecast was used. There is the
possibility for some isolated showers in the Twin Tiers and
areas northward. After that, the Pops were left untouched as
things become a little more uncertain. The NAMNest is an outlier
and has a fairly large area of showers move through, though the
00z may come in with better agreement with the HRRR and RAP and
keep shower activity more isolated. Thunder was taken out of
the forecast until at around sunrise tomorrow. There has not
been any lightning detected with these showers that just passed
through and modeled soundings do not look favorable for thunderstorms
during the overnight hours.
630 PM Update...
The first round of showers and storms have exited the region.
There remains scattered showers just north of our region, so
there remains a slight chance to slight chance from the far
northern Finger Lakes regions and into the Tug Hill Plateau.
There is another line of scattered showers just now moving into
the region from the west. The good new is that any instability
has become quite limited and is not expected to be present
beyond the next couple of hours. This means that the chance for
any strong storms is low, especially once the sunsets. Following
a blend of the CAMs and NBM, these showers will sweep across
the region and move out by midnight tonight. After that, a
couple of isolated showers cannot be ruled out, but most of the
region should have a dry period before showers and storms become
possible Thursday morning.
The rest of the forecast was doing fairly well. Some minor
adjustments were needed to the temps as a few areas are in the
60s across CNY. Winds were also touched up based on the latest
obs.
345 PM Update...
Warm front remains draped across Lake Ontario and the Mohawk
Valley this afternoon. Present batch of showers will move
northeast of the CWA between by 6 PM, but may linger a bit close
to the warm front itself. Meanwhile, another shortwave trough is
still expected to lift across the region this evening, but the
initial showers will help reduce instability, and the risk of
stronger to marginally severe thunderstorms is overall reduced,
especially across Central NY. NE PA will have a better shot at
strong to severe thunderstorms early this evening, with damaging
winds the main risk.
Winds look to stay steady enough to prevent fog formation in
most areas, though the odd scrap in a more sheltered valley will
be possible towards dawn.
Otherwise, eyes shift to the cold front expected to push through
the area fairly early tomorrow. A band of showers and
thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front, but the timing is
not ideal for stronger storms over most of the area as the
front looks to reach the I-81 corridor between 11 AM and 1 PM.
Thus, expect mainly showers and isolated thunder across the
Finger Lakes, with increasing coverage closer to the I-81
corridor around midday, and isolated severe thunderstorms
mainly across the Catskills and Poconos between 2 PM and 5 PM.
The risk of severe thunderstorms will generally be higher over
the Hudson Valley where diurnal heating will allow somewhat
stronger instability to develop. But, even with 500-900 J/Kg of
SBCAPE, and 0-6km shear of 35 to 40 knots, some damaging wind
gusts will be possible before the focus shifts east of the CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 pm update...
On Friday, a broad upper trough will be over the Great Lakes.
Surface high pressure over the mid Atlantic states will bring
warm air northeast into the area. Highs will be in the 60s. With
good mixing relative humidity will fall to around 30 percent.
Surface winds will be 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Friday night a slow moving surface front will approach from the
northwest with showers. NEPA and the Catskills will probably
remain dry Friday night. The front moves through the area
Saturday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures Saturday will range from the mid 50s north to mid
60s south. Behind the front Saturday night lows fall into the
upper 20s and lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 pm update...
A cooler period with a slow warming trend. Unsettled weather
continues. Forecast changed little.
Sunday the upper level trough moves through. With the northerly
flow of cold air some showers will be around in central NY.
Highs will only be in the 40s.
Sunday night into Monday high pressure will be over the area
with dry air while the upper level trough moves into eastern
Canada. Lows mostly in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Monday another front followed by another upper level trough then
a dry day Wednesday.
Previous discussion...
Our next system early next week is trending toward a solution
that involves less interaction between a low pressure system
tracking through the Great Lakes and one closer to the gulf
coast. This would trend precipitation coverage and intensity
down a bit. With the trend for less precipitation, temperatures
are trending warmer as well on the ensemble guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another light band of showers will sweep through the region this
evening with potentially very brief periods of MVFR conditions.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist through the night. The
next round of showers will push in between 13-16Z Thur morning
across the western terminals before intensifying east of I-81
and south of the NY Thruway in the afternoon. There could also
be temporary MVFR restrictions in the showers or storms during
the morning hours into the early afternoon. Drier air will move
in after 22Z.
South winds are expected to be steady enough tonight to prevent
fog formation tonight. A layer of stronger southwest winds just
above the surface around 40 kt will allow for LLWS. Winds will
mix down to the surface and increase out of the west Thursday
morning and continue into the afternoon with gusts 15 to 25 kt.
West winds will diminish to less than 10 kt after 22Z.
Outlook...
Friday...High pressure and VFR conditions to end the week.
Saturday through Monday...Showers possible with associated
restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...AJG/MWG/TAC
AVIATION...BJT/MPH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
942 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
Closed low continues to rotate over the Dakotas, with moderate
snow over north central North Dakota. Recent radar trends do show
some breaking up of the more continuous reflectivity field,
possibly evident of the gradual shift of forcing away from the
area as previously discussed. Blizzard conditions continue over
much of the state. No changes needed to the going forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
Heavy snow continues over north central North Dakota, while
blowing snow is reducing visibility down to around 1/4 mile across
much of western and central North Dakota. 850mb winds increases to
50 kts this evening, which is already producing 50 kt wind gusts
at Minot, Dickinson, and Hettinger. Forecast soundings show
momentum transfer should be sufficient for these strong wind gusts
through much of the evening, with less of a potential after
midnight. Widespread blizzard conditions are expected to continue
with these winds and snow. Heavy snow in the north central,
including the Minot area, will continue early this evening. As the
mid-level cyclone shifts east overnight, snowfall rates should
fall below the 1 inch/hour that area has been experiencing for
much of today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 445 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
The blizzard warning has been replaced by a winter weather
advisory for Stutsman County based on conditions on the ground
there and expectations. The winter weather advisory continues for
Lamoure and Dickey counties based on the expectation that light
snow will move back in there and winds will increase, causing
reduced visibility in blowing snow overnight. The blizzard warning
continues for the rest of the forecast area.
As of this writing the surface low in northeast North Dakota had
retrograded from near Grand Forks to near Devil`s Lake. The low is
becoming vertically stacked through H5 and that is forecast to be
about complete this evening. A drifting then to the southeast is
forecast by the RAP model through Thursday.
Until then though, concern is high in that the winds surface to 1
KM up have increased to 50 mph. Actually wind recorded earlier at
the Williston airport, up on a hill, was about 58 mph. With that
will be continued 1/4 mile visibility or less in blowing snow and
some light falling snow. For the Minot area, a combination of
still some heavy snow, and the wind, will drop us there too to 1/4
mile. The CAMS show some CAPE there, 100J`KG and there is decent
ascent at H7 resulting in continued development / redevelopment
of snow. Not that low in say Bismarck for visibility, but still
low enough to keep the blizzard warning going.
These headlines go through Thursday daytime. With that said, the
vision I have based on decreasing wind and snow tapering to
flurries is that the blizzard warning will be dropped in a piece-
meal fashion from southwest to northeast during the day.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 445 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
Overnight low temperatures back in the 5 to 15 above range
Thursday night as wind drops and clouds decrease. That`s cold
based on the normal lows for mid April around 30.
Attention then goes to the weekend system progged in from the west
on Saturday. That could warrant the issuance of a winter weather
advisory for that time period but that focus will come more in
line later.
We will have slow melting during the day, even with temperatures
in the 20s and 30s, both from to the top down with any sunshine
mid April and from the bottom up with the relatively warm ground.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
A blizzard continues to impact the region with -SN south and SN
north, and wind gusts as high as 50 kts. Most terminals will have
IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities and extensive blowing and
drifting snow. Expect improving weather from southwest ND toward the
northeast during the daytime Thursday, however winds out of the
northwest will stay strong through the afternoon.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Thursday for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>036-040>047-050.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for NDZ037-048-
051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AE
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...AE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
703 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0624 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022/
Mesoscale Update.
Latest RAP/LAPS data shows a warm sector established across the Deep
South with a 30-45 kt southerly low-level jet. Dewpoints in the 60s
reside across the area, along with modest mid-level lapse rates,
generally 7-7.5 C/km (our 18z RAOB indicated a healthy EML). This
has fostered MLCAPE of 500-1,000 J/kg, mainly along and west of I-
65, where we`ve seen mostly sunny skies and afternoon warmth.
Instability further increases across MS where better BL moisture
resides along and ahead of the incoming MCS, dewpoints here are in
the mid to upper 60s, increasing MLCAPE to 1,500-2,000 J/kg. Deep
convection is ongoing in this region with line-embedded bowing
segments, and semi-discrete supercells ahead of the MCS which are
near the I-55 corridor now. Satellite imagery depicts several
embedded updrafts that periodically strengthen, with some recent
overshooting tops approaching -80 C (~50,000 ft). These stronger
storms are capable of all convective hazards. Furthermore, a more
prominent bowing segment is moving quickly east across northern MS
where recent ASOS measurements indicated 60 & 61 kt wind gusts. This
bowing segment could enter northwest AL around 7 PM, but may stay
just north of Marion and Winston Counties.
However, additional thunderstorms reside farther south, and we
expect this cluster of convection to enter our CWA in the 7 PM to
8 PM timeframe. Moisture and instability will build from the west,
along and ahead of these storms. Kinematics support of our severe
weather concerns - RAP mesoanalysis indicates eff. bulk shear
approaching 40 kts near the AL/MS state line. Recent KDGX/KGWX
derived hodographs show favorable low-level shear, with ~300
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. However, these same hodographs also show some
weakening in mid-level flow, which could explain some of the
erratic convective behavior of the cells ahead of the MCS. Waning
instability is expected after sunset, which could limit severe
potential in our area. Thus, it`s unclear if these storms will be
able to maintain an organized and robust nature/behavior over the
next few hours, especially as they approach I-65. Nonetheless,
we`ll be closely monitoring the thunderstorms as they continue to
near the Central AL forecast area in the next couple of hours.
Instability and wind shear suggest the MCS will be able to
maintain decent strength as it enters AL. Damaging wind gusts and
hail look the most likely, though tornadoes are also possible in
strongest/most organized storms. Areas along and west of I-65
maintain the best overall chance of severe weather over the next
several hours.
40/Sizemore
Previous short-term discussion:
/Updated at 0125 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022/
Tomorrow.
With the severe threat ending early tomorrow morning, the cold front
will move southeast of the area, and winds will become north-
northwesterly. For the most part, this will set up comfortable
conditions for a majority of the day with clouds clearing across
our northwest half. Some light scattered showers may linger south
of I-85 through the afternoon. Expect temperatures to warm into
the mid 70s with decreasing humidity.
86
.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0207 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022/
Friday through Tuesday.
A surface high will shift east of Alabama on Friday and surface
winds will become southerly in the afternoon. This will allow
temperatures to warm into the lower 80s in many locations.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday night as
a warm front lifts northward across Alabama. The storms are expected
to remain below severe limits due to stable conditions in the low
levels of the air mass. Unsettled weather expected over the weekend
due to northwest upper flow. Several upper level impulses will
track along the northwest flow and trigger scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. Models indicate there may be enough
instability south of I-20 Saturday afternoon for the possibility
of some stronger storms. A drying trend Monday afternoon and
Monday night as the main short wave trof pushes east of Alabama.
58/rose
Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022/
Friday through Tuesday.
The frontal boundary remains to our south through most of the day on
Friday, but does slowly start lifting northward. This could lead to
some isolated showers and thunderstorms across the southernmost
counties by Friday afternoon. Rain/thunderstorm chances continue to
increase Friday night into Saturday with several rounds of precip
expected over Easter weekend and into Monday. This is due to the
stalled frontal boundary remaining draped across the area under
generally zonal flow aloft. A couple of shortwave impulses move
along the boundary over the weekend. Timing remains a little
uncertain with each wave, so overall rain chances remain capped
around 40-50%. This will likely increase in coming days as we get a
better handle on the timing for each impulse.
As we begin next week, a slightly deeper shortwave trough is
expected to slide through, developing a weak low pressure system
somewhere along the Gulf States. This will push the stalled boundary
south of our area by Monday evening into Tuesday, ending any
significant rain/storm chances. Right now, this Monday system
remains on the weaker side, which limits any northward progression
of a quality warm sector, so we really don`t see much instability
across Central AL ahead of the low pressure system. Because of this,
the severe potential appears to be limited at this time.
25/Owen
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.
A large area of showers and thunderstorms was located over
central and eastern Mississippi and moving quickly our way. It
appears that the storms will start affecting TCL/BHM/EET in the
1-4z time frame and the others between 3-7z. Will keep the
mention of thunder in the forecast for around 6hrs as the area of
lightning activity is rather broad. Ceilings generally go down to
MVFR as this convective activity moves in. There will be a brief
period of IFR just before the front moves in. Winds will start off
southerly at 10-20kts , with a few higher gusts mainly north and
west. The winds veer to the west and then northwest after the
front and ceilings should rise to MVFR through the morning hours
with decreasing cloudiness from west to east at least by
afternoon.
75
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
20ft winds will remain from the south at 7-12 mph this evening with
gusts to 20 mph. Rain chances will increase later tonight as a
line of strong thunderstorms moves from northwest to southeast
across the area. The rain should exit the southeast counties early
Thursday morning. 20ft winds will become north at 5-7 mph on
Thursday behind the cold front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 56 72 44 79 54 / 90 20 0 10 40
Anniston 59 74 47 79 57 / 90 30 10 10 40
Birmingham 56 73 48 80 59 / 90 20 0 10 40
Tuscaloosa 56 75 48 81 60 / 100 10 0 10 50
Calera 59 75 50 80 61 / 90 30 0 10 40
Auburn 62 74 53 79 59 / 80 70 10 10 40
Montgomery 63 77 52 82 61 / 90 60 10 20 40
Troy 63 76 53 81 60 / 80 70 10 20 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for the following
counties: Fayette...Lamar...Marion...Pickens...Tuscaloosa...
Walker...Winston.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1002 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through late tonight and early Thursday.
Behind the front, high pressure ridge builds eastward before
another cold front sweeps through Friday night. Behind that
front, another high pressure ridge should build gradually from
the north-central U.S. this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
9:30 PM Update:
The near-term forecast generally remains on track as described
in the previous discussion. Small tweaks to POPs to time the
incoming convection along a pre- frontal trough coming out of
IN, followed a few hours later by a fine line of showers along
the cold front itself. Also freshened up temperatures and wind a
bit to match current conditions. Really trimmed down the
thunder chances and only have a minimal mention for a few hours
around midnight from MNN to MFD to CAK on south ahead of the
convection moving out of the Ohio Valley along the pre-frontal
trough...that could still be generous.
Severe weather potential: Remains minimal. No instability has
developed ahead of the weakening QLCS along the pre-frontal
trough coming out of IN, SW OH and KY. Storms north of the Ohio
River already have weakened below severe limits and given a
paucity of instability ahead of this convection as it moves
towards our area, don`t expect any storms robust enough to take
advantage of the strong shear that`s in place this
evening...getting thunder may be difficult at this point.
Something small to watch between 1 or 2 AM and 6 AM west of the
I-77 corridor will be a fine line of convective showers that
hi-res models consistently show developing along the front
itself. The RAP (as viewed on the SPC mesoanalysis page)
develops 25-50 J/KG of 0-3km CAPE ahead of this line overnight
in the presence of very strong shear (0-3km bulk shear of 40+
knots and 0-1km SRH values of 300-400+ m2/s2). General
impression is that poor low-level lapse rates and line
orientation fairly parallel to the 0-3km shear vectors will make
it difficult to see a severe threat play out with this line of
showers. However, the magnitude of low-level shear coupled with
the stronger forcing along the cold front causes some
apprehension in completely ruling something out if that small
amount of low-level CAPE can develop. Generally feel the SPC
Marginal Risk (which remains for gusty winds/perhaps a brief,
weak tornado west of I-77) captures the low risk for an
isolated severe shower (likely no lightning) along the front
well. We`ll have to watch any parts of the line that orient
themselves more N-S or NW-SE and can take better advantage of
the strong 0-3km shear...or any breaks in the line... for a
small severe risk if instability does develop.
Gusty winds behind the front: Gave the wind forecast a good look
through Thursday morning. Winds actually have come down a good
bit this evening, but will creep back up as the low-level jet
intensifies ahead of the front, with peak gusts occurring along
and just behind the frontal passage. Forecast soundings do not
quite support advisory criteria gusts for most of the area, so
kept most gusts in the 30-35 MPH range, briefly close to 40 in
Northwest OH and along the lakeshore towards Cleveland. Forecast
soundings for Erie could arguably support about an hour of
gusts to 45 MPH right behind the front...if the lake was warm
we`d probably pull the trigger on a Wind Advisory for the
eastern lakeshore zones, but with a cold lake/stable marine
layer and brief duration of stronger gusts, confidence not
there to do that right now. The midnight shift will have time to
evaluate gusts upstream and if needed can hoist a brief
advisory if it looks windier than expected.
Previous discussion:
Southwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances
affect our CWA through Thursday. At the surface, one trough axis
tied to a shortwave disturbance will exit northeast OH and
northwest PA by early evening. Another surface trough axis
accompanying a more subtle shortwave disturbance should sweep
generally east across our CWA late this evening through the wee
hours of Thursday morning. Finally, a cold front should sweep
east across our CWA during the predawn hours of Thursday morning
through an hour or two after daybreak. Periods of widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected, especially
during the passages of both pre-frontal surface troughs and with
the cold front`s passage. The wet-bulb effect and eventual
nocturnal cooling will contribute to limited boundary layer
instability (including SBCAPE), poor low-level lapse rates, and
limited DCAPE in the warm sector. CAM`s also suggest elevated
MUCAPE will remain weak. All this means the potential for
thunderstorms and especially severe thunderstorms is limited
despite moderate to strong deep layer and effective bulk shear
persisting ahead of the front. SPC still has much of northern OH
in a marginal risk of severe storms with damaging gusts, but
this risk appears highly contingent on CAPE magnitudes over-
performing compared to expectations. Overnight lows tonight
should reach the mid to upper 40`s for most, but lower 50`s are
expected in far-eastern Erie and Crawford Counties, PA.
Odds favor fair weather behind the cold front on Thursday as
stabilizing high pressure at/near the surface builds eastward,
yet cyclonic flow aloft persists as a mid- to upper-level low
wobbles near the north-central U.S./Canada border. Daytime highs
should mainly reach the mid to upper 50`s. Most of our CWA
should continue to have fair weather Thursday night as the ridge
at/near the surface crests eastward. However, moist isentropic
ascent aloft may allow isolated rain showers to blossom
over/near Lake Erie and northwest OH late evening into early
Friday morning. The isentropic ascent will occur as the mid- to
upper-level low moves east toward Lake Superior and another
shortwave trough approaches from the Upper Midwest and western
Great Lakes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low remains centered over central Ontario on Friday but
drifts eastward through Saturday night. There may be just enough lift
ahead of a cold front as early as Friday to produce some very light
rain. The better chances arrive ahead of a cold front that moves
into the region from northwest to southeast Friday night into
Saturday morning. It may end up being just cold enough late Friday
night into early Saturday for a few snow showers across inland NW
PA. However no accumulations is expected.
High pressure begins to build across the region Saturday afternoon
then takes control by Saturday Night. So expect dry conditions
Saturday night for most locations. The exception will be across NW PA
where flow off of the lake could keep a slight chance of rain/snow
going.
Friday should see highs in the 60`s. Cooler in the wake of the cold
front on Saturday with highs ranging from the upper 40`s to mid
50`s. Lows Friday night mostly in the 40`s. Cooler Saturday night
with lows in the upper 20`s to mid 30`s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry on Sunday with the region between storm systems. There should be
sunshine in the morning but clouds increase during the afternoon.
Highs only in the 40`s to maybe low 50`s.
Models are then uncertain on how the next trough/upper low impacts
the Great Lakes. Models are consistent on bringing warm front and a
cold front across the region Monday into Monday night but the timing
is different with each one. So for now have chance POP`s going for
Monday then nudging them up with the cold front Monday night. The
rain/snow showers may linger into Tuesday. The snow mentioned looks
like it only occurs Monday night into early Tuesday. There could be
some lingering lake enhanced rain /snow showers Tuesday night but
hopefully dry by Wednesday.
Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages through the long
term period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Showers (with brief gusty winds and MVFR ceilings and
visibilities) are dissipating and lifting northeast, but remain
in the YNG and ERI area into this evening before they get into a
break by 1-2z. Maintained MVFR ceilings at TOL only in this
break, but even there a brief break to VFR is possible over the
next few hours.
An area of rain/perhaps a bit of thunder arrives from the
southwest between 2-6z, first at TOL, FDY and MFD then quickly
overspreading CLE, CAK, and eventually YNG and ERI by 6z. This
will likely persist for 2-3 hours over a given location before
exiting to the east. Did not include thunder in the TAFs as it`s
been very hit or miss upstream and odds of it occurring at a
given site are low, but non-zero, especially at FDY and MFD.
This rain will lower ceilings, to MVFR at many locations, with brief
MVFR visibility also possible. If any convection makes it in,
brief IFR visibility is possible. Hit this hardest at MFD, but
left everyone else MVFR as activity should gradually lose
intensity as it moves northeast, and anything more intense would
last 30 minutes or less.
After a brief break, cold front sweeps through quickly between
7z at TOL and FDY and 12 or 13z at ERI. This will be accompanied
by a narrow band of showers and gusty winds. MVFR to brief IFR
ceilings and visibilities are likely with the frontal passage.
Conditions clear to VFR within a few hours of the frontal
passage into Thursday morning.
Generally used the HRRR model for timing of greater rain chances
and the frontal passage as it`s been verifying well upstream and
is consistent. Blended in input from the GLAMP and AWC guidance
and trends upstream for help with ceilings and visibility in
the areas of rain.
Winds lulling a bit now, but will be gusty out of the
south/southwest ahead of the front and quickly veer to westerly
with the frontal passage early Thursday. Gusts to 25-30 knots
are likely later this evening through early Thursday, briefly
stronger if a storm occurs and perhaps just behind the front
too. With a low-level jet ramping up this evening LLWS will be
present, but am expecting just enough surface wind to preclude a
need to include in the TAFs.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periods of rain showers Thursday
night through Monday. Thunderstorms are possible Friday night.
Rain may mix with wet snow early Saturday morning and again
Sunday night into Monday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Surface pressure gradient has increased enough to go ahead and issue
a small craft advisory starting now across the western basin. Will
then let the small craft advisory spread east with the cold front
overnight. Winds should begin to decrease from west to east by
Thursday afternoon. However the westerly component to the winds will
keep waves large enough into the afternoon to keep the advisory
going through late afternoon east. Slight concern that we will need
to nudge these small craft advisories a little bit longer but will
let later shifts verify the trends.
A surface trough then lingers over the Great Lakes region into
Friday night with southwest winds persisting. We will need to
monitor for a sneaky short fused small craft advisory for the
eastern portion of the lake. By Saturday morning a cold front sweeps
across the lake with high pressure building across the lake from
west to east Saturday night.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ148-
149.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ142>144.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for
LEZ145>147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka/Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...MM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
...updated aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
This afternoon`s RAP analysis and water vapor loop showed an intense
upper low centered over North Dakota with the mid level trough axis
extending south-southeastward across much of the remainder of the
Northern and Central Plains down into Kansas. Another mid level jet
streak was rounding the base of this trough from southern Colorado
into the northern Texas Panhandle. Immediately poleward of this jet
streak, mid level temperatures were very cold with H7/5 temperatures
of -12/-33C pushing into western Kansas out of Colorado. The
associated steep mid level lapse rates across Colorado resulted in
development of numerous small showers across the mountains and into
the High Plains of Colorado. These showers will push east into
western Kansas late this afternoon/evening, but will be encountering
extremely dry low level air, such that all we will likely see is
virga out of this activity. Thus, we will continue to show no POPs
in the forecast for this afternoon and tonight. Light winds, a very
dry atmosphere, and a mostly clear sky once the showers dissipate
this evening...will support cold early Thursday morning
temperatures. We will keep the lower to mid 20s for lows going
across much of the forecast area. On Thursday, as the surface high
pushes, we will see winds return out of the southwest. This will not
necessarily be that warming of a wind with the trajectories
initially around the western periphery of the departing high, so
while it will certainly be warmer tomorrow, we are calling for
afternoon highs in the mid 60s north to lower 70s south toward the
Oklahoma border.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
A cold airmass awaiting up north will be watched carefully much of
this Long Term period, as we will see periodic pushes of this colder
air down into southwest Kansas. The first push will occur late
Friday and will have some impact on Friday afternoon temperatures.
On Friday, we will likely see an early afternoon high before
temperatures stabilize or slowly fall on strong cold advection from
the northeast. The deterministic ECMWF and GFS models are in pretty
good agreement now on the timing of the front through just about the
entire southwest Kansas region early Friday afternoon. The first
push of colder air will be locked in across western Kansas on
easterly winds Saturday, resulting in forecast highs in the upper
50s. A fast-moving, small zonal wave will be moving east across the
Rockies and Central Plains late Saturday Night into early Sunday,
which will support development of precipitation, however only
affecting our far northeast/east central counties, if this
precipitation even starts that far west. Much of the late weekend
precipitation event will be focused on the eastern half of Kansas.
Behind this late weekend wave, a reinforcing shot of the upstream
cold airmass will push into southwest Kansas for Monday. This may
linger into Tuesday. The Tuesday temperature forecast appears to be
quite challenging...along with the precipitation chances...as another
round of warm advection precipitation is probable across portions of
the Central/Southern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
VFR is expected through TAF pd. Some mid level clouds are expected to
drift across the terminals later in the period. However, no further
flight reductions are expected other than VFR. Light and variable winds
will prevail during the overnight period. Winds will eventually become
SW 15-20 kt around noon as the pressure gradient tightens across the
general region.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
Surface winds continued to weaken early this afternoon to below
critical fire threshold (sustained or frequent gusts of 25+ mph),
with these winds likely remaining light through early this evening.
The exception will be up along I-70 where a Red Flag Warning remains
in effect through this evening...as well as Morton County as far
southwest Kansas will be very close to the advancing downslope west-
northwest wind surge. On Thursday, very dry air will remain in place
with dewpoints in the single digits to lower-mid teens. This will
likely result in widespread, critically low RH across much of the
region. Winds will be stronger out of the southwest tomorrow, versus
this afternoon, touching or exceeding the critical wind threshold of
25 mph sustained/frequent gusts. As such, a Fire Weather Watch will
be hoisted for areas generally northwest of a Liberal to Dodge City
to LaCrosse line.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 25 69 38 72 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 22 68 33 71 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 24 71 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 25 71 35 77 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 24 67 31 63 / 10 0 0 0
P28 30 71 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064-074>078-084>086.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Springer
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1051 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022
Cold front is coming ashore as of 1030pm with Manistee and
Ludington where winds have already shifted to the west. Winds at
Michigan City are westerly as well. The front has a healthy
temperature drop across it with 60s currently in much of Western
Lower Michigan and 30s across the lake in Southern Wisconsin. The
temperature has already dropped to 46 at Ludington.
Winds are expected to come up tonight across the CWA behind the
frontal passage. Both the 3KM NAM and the HRRR are indicating 30+
knot winds are possible overnight. Winds will ramp up more
significantly on Thursday during the day with mixing, but it will
be gusty even in the pre-dawn hours.
An area of rain will work through the CWA overnight with even
some light snow mixing before the precipitation ends (especially
in the northwest corner of the CWA near Ludington). Wet bulb zero
heights crash to below 1000 feet overnight, so snow is completely
plausible. It is currently snow in Central Wisconsin.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022
- Severe Weather Risk This Evening
Satellite imagery shows some breaks in the clouds along the
lakeshore and upstream into northern Illinois. Surface based
instability has developed with 500 to 1000 J/kg as of 18z. Deep
layer shear in this region is on the low side...but further upstream
the values were on the increase. As cold front in western Illinois
pushes east late this afternoon and evening there will be a window
where better deep layer shear and some instability could come
together in our CWA...from about 22z to 02z. The RAP model is
showing 45 knots of effective bulk shear 00z near Kalamazoo and
Battle Creek along with 500 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Damaging
winds are the primary threat especially with the RAP model showing
925 mb to 850 mb winds of 40 to 50 knots 00z to 04z over the
southern zones.
Then from 04z to 07z a narrow line of shallow convection develops
on the cold front. Strong wind fields will be present along this
zone. There is some 0 to 3 km CAPE predicted as well. At 925
mb...winds of 40 to 45 knots are shown on the backside of the
front. This could support similar surface gusts around the time of
the frontal passage.
- High Winds Thursday into Friday
Models are showing a swath of 40 to 45 knot 925 mb winds arriving
during the day on Thursday. With cold air advection underway
then...good mixing is expected. Much of the region will mix through
this level...which would support surface gusts topping 40 knots.
The winds around 850 mb are shown to be near 50 knots...which may
be within the mixing zone...especially from near Holland to Grand
Rapids and up into the Lansing to Alma region. Cross sections
from the GFS also show some indications of a trop fold later
tonight into Thursday. We are not confident enough to upgrade the
advisory to a warning at this time...but how deep we mix and what
the winds are at that level is something that will need to be
assessed closely going forward. The winds should diminish Thursday
night...but increase again on Friday as diurnal mixing increases
again. At this time it does not appear we will reach advisory
levels on Friday as the winds at the top of the mixing layer are
shown to be in the 30 knot range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022
Regional radar and lightning observations show showers and weak
embedded TS roughly extending from MKG-GRR-LAN. This initial
convection will be accounted for with a TEMPO group at these
locations. Subsequent convective trends--and associated
extent/duration of MVFR/IFR--are uncertain, but renewed SHRA and
at least isolated TS are expected along a strong cold front that
will progress through are area between 03 and 07z. This front will
also be accompanied by a pronounced wind shift. A relative lull
in wind speeds is expected between roughly 09z and 14z.
Thereafter, a second period of stronger gusts (near 40 kts) is
expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022
A tight pressure gradient sets up over the zones tonight into
Thursday. Forecast winds speeds up around 925 mb are forecast to top
40 knots out of the southwest Tuesday. Cold air advection will
generate some mixing. This should be enough to generate gales out
over Lake MI. Thus we will change the Gale Watch to a Warning.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>849.
Gale Warning from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Duke
DISCUSSION...MJS
AVIATION...Kenyon
MARINE...MJS
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
907 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
The cold front is just clearing the CWA, with Valparaiso, IN now
having dropped below 60, while Sterling, IL at the far western CWA
edge is at 38. Colder air will continue oozing into the region
underneath the synoptic moist conveyor belt in the mid-levels.
Thankfully this setup will not last long enough to give us
anything other than rain, though there had been a few observations
of snow in Iowa before precipitation shut off. Rain will come to
an end from west to east between 10 PM and midnight. Northwest
gusts have eased some from the immediate post-frontal uptick but
still some gusts to 30 mph or a smidge over the next couple
hours. Winds take another jump up Thursday as mixing ensues, and
the going Wind Advisory looks just fine.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
Through Thursday night...
A messy afternoon is in store for the area as a deep upper-level low
continues to churn over the Dakotas and funnel moisture into our
area via its moist conveyor belt. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms, including possibly an isolated strong to severe
storm or two, can be expected this afternoon into this evening
before a cold front tied to the occluded surface reflection of the
upper low clears the area to the east.
Showers and thunderstorms have begun to spread into the area from
the southwest and will continue to progress northeastward across the
CWA over the next several hours. The 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE sampled by
the 19Z ILX RAOB is plenty to support convective development that
could yield strong to severe thunderstorms, and with low-level
warm air advection continuing and a mid-level impulse impinging
from the west, the support for ascent is adequate to allow for
storms to continue popping up through the rest of this afternoon
ahead of and within the large swath of convection that is making
inroads into our CWA. Effective bulk shear in the ILX sounding
was around 30 kts (which at the moment, roughly extends across
most of our CWA, per RAP mesoanalysis), which is okay to support
some thunderstorm organization, but would probably need to be a
bit higher for a more appreciable threat for severe thunderstorms
to be realized in this particular setup. These shear values are
forecasted to increase over the next couple of hours across the
southeastern portion of the CWA, where we still believe the threat
for any severe weather is highest in our forecast area, though
based on upstream radar observations, there may not be enough of a
focus for ascent moving into this region to help generate robust
thunderstorms in this area that would actually be able to make
use of this shear. All things considered, we are still expecting
up to a few strong to severe thunderstorms to occur in our CWA
along or east of the cold front that, as of about 3:30 PM CDT
extends from just east of Rockford down through the Peru/La Salle
area and into central Illinois. A few instances of damaging winds
and/or hail up to quarter size could occur within the most robust
thunderstorms, and while an isolated tornado can`t fully be ruled
out yet, it looks increasingly unlikely that one would occur.
Given that the overall setup would favor only a few isolated
severe thunderstorms at best, it is unlikely that a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will need to be issued this afternoon even
though a few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings may need to be, but
we`ll continue to monitor trends closely.
The other story in the short term portion of the forecast will be
the winds on Thursday. Very steep lapse rates greater than 9 C/km
will promote deep mixing into 60+ mph flow above 800 mb that will
afford strong wind gusts to around 45-50 mph to be observed at
ground level. Because of the high likelihood of several 45+ mph
gusts occurring during the daytime on Thursday, have elected to
hoist a Wind Advisory from mid-morning Thursday through the late
afternoon/early evening.
Winds will taper off Thursday night before jet dynamics aloft could
force some light precipitation along a frontal boundary sometime
late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Thermal profiles could
support some of this precipitation falling as a rain/snow mix,
mainly on the north end of the precip shield, though no snow
accumulations or impacts are currently expected from this.
Ogorek
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
Friday through Wednesday...
No significant forecast concerns, but several chances for
precipitation through the period.
Friday will likely still be breezy with westerly winds gusting
into the 30 mph range. There will be another cold front moving
across the area Friday afternoon into Friday evening with a small
chance for light rain. Confidence is low but low chance pops are
still warranted. Cooler temperatures are then expected into the
weekend. The next system will move across the area Sunday
afternoon through early Monday morning with another cold front
moving across the area Monday. There may be some rain/snow mixed,
especially across northern IL Sunday night, but confidence is
fairly low. Another system may move across the area next Tuesday/
Wednesday. cms
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Aviation forecast concerns include:
* winds gusting to around 30 kt behind frontal passage prior to 02
or 03z.
* intermittent IFR ceilings behind front through mid evening
* west-southwest winds gusting into the 40-45 kt range Thursday
afternoon, with sporadic higher gusts possible
A cold front is crossing the Chicago terminals at issuance time
with a period of gusts in the 30-35 kt range expected behind it.
Gusts over 30 kt may only be occurring for an hour or two before
settling to around 25 kt. On and off rain will persist through
mid to late evening bringing periodic IFR ceilings as well as
visibility in the 3-5SM range. Skies will clear as the rain ends
and west to west-southwest wind gusts to around 25 kt will
continue overnight.
VFR is expected Thursday but west-southwest winds will ramp up
through the morning and gusts will likely push 35 kt by around
15z before further increasing to around 40 kt by midday. Expect
that winds will peak during the mid afternoon and gusts will likely
reach 45 kt with some potential for at least occasional higher
gusts. Winds will ease toward sunset and the steadily decline
through the evening.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-
ILZ039-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108...10 AM
Thursday to 7 PM Thursday.
IN...Wind Advisory...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM
Thursday to 7 PM Thursday.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...7 AM
Thursday to 7 PM Thursday.
Small Craft Advisory...nearshore waters until 7 AM Thursday.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSChicago
www.twitter.com/NWSChicago
www.youtube.com/NWSChicago
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
908 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022
.UPDATE...
The main change to the previous forecast is to speed up the timing
of the convection across the western portions of the area. The HRRR
has generally been faster than the other guidance in accelerating
the line of storms into our western areas prior to 12z. The latest
radar trends in Mississippi seem to support a faster timing, so rain
chances were increased significantly across the western third of the
area late tonight in the 09z-12z time period. The threat of severe
weather with this line still seems marginal overall in our area,
although non-zero with gusty winds the main threat.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [752 PM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...
Main weather concerns through Thursday afternoon revolve around a
cold front that will move into the area, and stall, into Thursday
afternoon. Through tonight, shower and storm activity will begin to
move into western Alabama ahead the primary front. In this area
severe storms are likely to be ongoing but as they move east into
southeast Alabama early Thursday morning, a steady weakening trend
will begin. This area of storms will slide into southeast Alabama
and our Panhandle counties through the morning hours. While we are
in a marginal risk for severe storms across these areas, the severe
potential looks to be on the lower as the primary forcing will be
racing away from the storms to the northeast and instability will be
on the lower side due to the time of day and weakening southerly
flow.
Whatever is left behind these storms will likely bring a small lull
in activity for the rest of the morning before a isolated/scattered
showers and storms redevelop in the afternoon hours. With deep layer
shear only expected to decrease in the afternoon and limited
recovery of instability for the afternoon, severe coverage in the
second round of showers/storms will be isolated.
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]...
The weakening cold front will exit the region late Thursday night
into Friday, with showers and maybe a few rumbles of thundering
being possible. Flow aloft then takes on a more zonal component
which will be the dominant feature through the weekend. There
looks to be some lingering instability and moisture so a few
additional pop up showers and thunderstorms, much like we see in
the summertime, aren`t out of the question on through Friday
evening. Daytime highs will mid to upper 70s for SE AL, the mid
70s to low 80s for FL Panhandle, and the upper 70s to mid 80s for
SW GA and the Big Bend.
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The upper level pattern will remain dominated with near quasi-
zonal flow through the weekend. Troughing remains well to our
north, though a few shortwave disturbances will pass over the SE.
Between that, favorable jet position, instability, and high
PWATS, we`ll have renewed chances for pop up showers and
thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. A stronger cold front is slated
to move through early next week, which will bring a renewed chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is low on whether or not
they could be severe. Behind that, cluster analysis and
deterministic models favor a few days of quiet and drier weather
as high pressure nestles over the region.
.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Friday]
Terminals hold at VFR this evening as fair-wx Cu fades and south
winds ease after sunset. However, cigs lower tonight with patchy
fog/mist possible. The best potential to see LIFR conds is TLH
between 9-12Z. Meanwhile a decaying line or cluster of SHRA/TSRA
arrives at ECP/DHN around 8-9Z and looks to clip ABY/TLH within a
couple hrs later. A storm or two could be strong to severe.
Renewed convection occurs tmrw afternoon as a weakening front
limps across the Tri-state area while winds pick up out of the SW.
.MARINE...
Near Exercise Caution conditions are forecast for areas west of
Apalachicola through the overnight hours due moderate to fresh
southeasterly breezes and 5 to 6 wave heights. Winds and seas
subside early Thursday. A weak frontal system should bring
showers and thunderstorms to the Gulf tomorrow, which could lead
to brief periods of gusty winds and elevated seas. Friday into the
weekend, calmer conditions are expected, though showers and
thunderstorms may occur each day.
.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased relative humidity and rain chances on Thursday will keep
dispersions and fire weather concerns low, especially across our
southeast Alabama counties and the Florida Panhandle. Across the Big
Bend and southwest Georgia relative humidities will still remain
elevated but dispersions will be higher than west of the
Apalachicola River. Drier conditions and dispersions on the lower
side are expected Friday as high pressure briefly moves in.
.HYDROLOGY...
The Flint, Apalachicola, and Ochlockonee rivers remain elevated
today, though they`re slowly on a downward trend. The only point
to be in a flood stage is the Apalachicola River at Blountstown,
where it remains in minor flood stage, with no additional rises
expected.
Rainfall totals have fluctuated a bit through Saturday. For SE AL
totals now span around 0.5 to 1.40 inches. The FL Panhandle and
SW Georgia have been raised to 0.25 to 1.0 of rain. And the Big
Bend has a range of 0.10 to 0.50 inches. The extreme SE Big Bend
may see less than a tenth of an inch through the weekend. With
totals this low, there are currently no flash flooding concerns,
and no additional rises on an rivers in our area are anticipated
at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 64 81 63 84 62 / 0 40 40 20 10
Panama City 66 75 63 80 65 / 80 80 30 20 10
Dothan 65 77 58 81 61 / 80 80 20 20 20
Albany 64 81 59 83 61 / 20 70 40 20 20
Valdosta 63 84 63 83 62 / 0 30 40 30 10
Cross City 64 83 64 85 62 / 10 10 30 30 0
Apalachicola 66 75 64 77 65 / 10 50 40 20 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM...KR
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...KR