Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/11/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
940 PM MDT Sun Apr 10 2022
.DISCUSSION...Regional weather radar imagery showing
precipitation associated with a cold Pacific low is advancing
inland this evening. No update to the forecast for this evening as
models remain consistent in timing and amounts of snow across the
region for tonight into Monday.
There has been a shift in the high resolution models to bring the
accompanying cold front through the region slightly earlier
Monday afternoon. Otherwise the formation of a stronger line of
showers and possible thunderstorms remains unchanged as the front
crosses through southwest Idaho. Areas from Glenns Ferry to Twin
Falls-Jerome-Rogerson will see the strongest winds (gusts up to
60 mph) and chance for significantly reduced visibility in brief
heavy snow with the frontal passage Monday afternoon.
.AVIATION...Scattered rain and snow showers across the area will
bring periods of MVFR conditions this evening. Snow will increase
across eastern Oregon and far southern Idaho after 06z Monday and
spread through the rest of the area after 12z. Snow will bring
local IFR conditions and mountain obscuration. Snow will mix with
rain in the lowest valleys by late Monday morning. A cold front
will arrive Monday afternoon across Idaho, accompanied by brief
heavy snow with LIFR conditions and wind gusts of 35-50 kt.
Thunderstorms are also possible along the front. Surface winds:
Becoming S to SE 5-15 kt, with gusts to 30 kt after 12z. Winds
becoming W-NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 35 kt behind the cold front
on Monday. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: West to southwest 35 to 50
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Snow and rain
showers continue in southwest Idaho and nearby Malheur County
but models expect them to end late this afternoon. An
atmospheric river has set up in the north Pacific along 45N and
will be drawn into our CWA late tonight through Monday as an upper
trough in the Gulf of Alaska digs southeastward, and right into
our area Monday. Models begin heavier pcpn in eastern Oregon after
midnight tonight and western Idaho by sunrise. HRRR and NAMNest
bring it into Idaho a little earlier than other models, but by
mid-morning all areas will be receiving snow, with rain only below
3000 feet. Snowfall will be significant in the mountains,
especially north of the Snake Basin, with accumulations 6 to 12
inches. Lower elevations will have 3 to 6 inches, and even the
Snake Basin should get 1-2 inches, except less than a half inch in
the lower Treasure Valley. Some shadowing of pcpn is expected in
the Treasure Valley in the morning while southeast winds are
blowing. But around midday or early afternoon hi-res models carry
a strong cold front eastward across western Idaho and into south-
central Idaho later in the afternoon. The front will be strong
enough for brief heavy rain and snow showers and a slight chance
of thunderstorms with strong winds and hail. After that, showers
will decrease and the air mass will become much drier and colder,
allowing the snow level to drop to lowest valley floors Monday
night. Another disturbance in the flow aloft will set off more
snow showers Monday night and Tuesday morning, decreasing later
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tuesday will also become quite windy,
especially in the Snake Basin, where gusts to 40 mph will be
likely. High temperatures will be cold enough to set records for
Monday and Tuesday, and low temps Tuesday night will be winter-
like: 5 above to 20 in the mountains and 20 to 25 in the lower
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Large scale upper level
trough will remain over much of the Conus through the period for
cold conditions with periods of precipitation. Mountain snowfall
will be present, with morning snow across valley locations. On
Thursday, another more significant push of moisture associated
with a warm-frontal passage will produce another round of
significant mountain snow and a mix of rain/snow in the valley.
Moisture and related showers will continue into Friday as the area
of low pressure moves into the Northern Plains. Another trough
will impact the forecast area through the weekend, with another
round of showers possible. Ensemble forecast have trended for
drier conditions with the trough passage. Temperatures will
remain well below normal through the period with highs about
10-15 degrees below normal.
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Monday to noon MDT Wednesday
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ Tuesday
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1159 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022
Southeast Michigan is currently under the influence of high
amplitude midlevel ridging and strong absolute anticyclonic
vorticity advection. Efficient meridional southerly flow after 06Z
will result in a rather abrupt moistening the latter half of the
night. Warm advection showers are likely for a short period between
08-12Z this morning. The potential for an isolated rumble of thunder
appears to low to include in the tafs. Warm advection pattern will
support MVFR cigs this morning becoming VFR mid cloud by midday. A
wave of low pressure will then bring the potential for a 3hr period
of shower activity at the Detroit terminals after 20Z Monday.
Prevailing VFR is expected Monday evening.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less through this evening. High Monday
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022
Fairly compact/strong 6 HR height fall center (-100 M) to track
through Minnesota tonight and into western Lake Superior by Monday
morning. Main wave of isentropic ascent/moisture advection over
southeast Michigan arriving 6-10Z tonight, as 60 Knot low level jet
works through the area, pushing PW Values to around 1 inch and
showalter index lowering to around -2 C with steep mid level lapse
rates as dry slot impinges on the area Monday morning. MUcapes
briefly reach aoa 500 J/KG per NAM/RAP bufkit soundings, but sliver
thin below 12000 ft. Northern areas/Tri-Cities region still looks to
have the best chances for showers and possible thunderstorm, as
subtle shortwave looks to be embedded in the strong southwest flow
and tracks close to Saginaw Bay. Based on the preponderance of the
hires solutions (ARW/FV3) and local probabilistic guidance, went
with scattered-numerous pops for showers late tonight, highest in
From a southeast part of the CWA prospective, rain chances are
higher late Monday afternoon with left over low level baroclinic
zone in place and getting into right entrance forcing of the
departing jet moving through Ontario. RAP showing a well defined
surface trough/convergence in the surface pressure field tracking
through in the afternoon. Being on the western fringe of the
departing moisture/850-700 MB Theta-E ridge axis does add to the
doubt in the response however.
Powerful storm system coming ashore of the Pacific Northwest tonight
and then tracking through the southern Rockies tomorrow. Strong high
pressure off the southeast Coast will lead to tight pressure
gradient over the Gulf of Mexico, leading to a tremendous surge of
moisture through the day, with record/near record moisture (0 C dew
pt at 700 MB/12 C at 85O MB) for early April standards reaching
southern Lower Michigan Tuesday night. The warm front should have
no problem becoming active with sufficient instability, as Euro
indicates 1000-850 MB capes in excess of 500 J/kg with K indices
into the lower 30s. Although, should be be noted the Euro solution
is one of the deeper solutions.
Negative tilted trough axis lifting into Great Lakes region
Wednesday night assuring another round of rain and possible
thunderstorms, with activity in the warm sector during Wednesday
being the more uncertain part of the forecast. None-the-less, it
appears a shortwave will be ingested out ahead of the front, likely
resulting in shower/possible thunderstorm activity in the afternoon.
Sub 980 MB low in the vicinity of western Lake Superior will promote
strong wind fields/cold advection on Thursday before quickly filling
and tracking along/north of the northern Great Lakes as we end the
work week. With 50 knots of wind advertised at 850 MB level, gusts of
40+ mph appear likely on Thursday, with still potentially 40 knots
at 850 MB level on Friday to work with as we reside a bit deeper in
the cold air, but looks to be a sharp south to north temperature
gradient over Great Lakes region which is reflected in the max temp
forecast (over 10 degrees difference from southern Michigan border to
the northern reaches of the CWA).
Weak high pressure will drift eastward from the central Great Lakes
through tonight as low pressure deepening in the north central
Plains continues lifting northeastward towards Lake Superior into
Monday. Marine conditions will begin to deteriorate late tonight and
into Monday as southeasterly winds increase with the resulting
tightening pressure gradient from the deepening low. Gusts will
approach 25 knots at times along with 3-5 foot waves for the Lake
Huron nearshore waters from Port Austin to Port Sanilac where a
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Monday. Gusts over the
northern open Lake Huron waters will also approach 25-30 knots at
times as well, but enough stability near the surface will limit
gusts to 30 knots. Rain showers will also become more prevalent
ahead of the system`s cold frontal passage, especially late in the
day across the southern half of the local waters.
Variable and light flow then prevails Tuesday as weak high pressure
quickly moves through before southeast flow strengthens yet again as
strong low pressure once again develops in the central Plains.
Renewed small craft concerns will again be possible during the
midweek period for portions of the Lake Huron nearshore waters.
Scattered to numerous showers tracking through late tonight, but
basin average rainfall under a quarter of an inch.
Another round of showers developing Monday afternoon, mainly east of
U.S 23. Once again, basin average rainfall a quarter of an inch or
less before activity exits east Monday evening.
Strong warm front will bring showers and possible thunderstorms
Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. Average rainfall of a quarter to
half an inch expected, especially north of M-59, where up to one
inch is not out of the question due to longer duration expected.
Multiple round of showers and possible thunderstorms are then
expected Wednesday and Wednesday night, with timing and intensity of
the rainfall still in question. None-the-less, total rainfall of
half an inch to one inch appears reasonable. Flooding is not
anticipated at this time based on those amounts, but river rises and
ponding of water in low lying areas is expected. There is potential
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for LHZ421-
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
818 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022
Winds have fallen below Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning Criteria.
As a result, have let those expire. Gusty winds will continue for
another few hours east of the dryline as it retreats to the west.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue for another couple
of hours or so out west until the airmass stabilizes and capping
inversion strengthens. However, there is a possibility that they may
become strong or severe. Of note, a severe storm near Los Angeles,
east of Cotulla may move into our area and we are monitoring that
For Monday, have maintained the ongoing rain free forecast due to the
strong capping inversion seen on forecast soundings. However, similar
to this evening, the dryline may provide the forcing to break this
cap. Should this happen, then CAPEs of 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg and steep
mid level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km indicate a potential for strong
to severe storms with very large hail the main threat.
.AVIATION... (11/00Z TAFs)
At the I-35 sites, SCT-BKN VFR clouds lower to MVFR CIGs later this
evening as south-southeasterly winds of 15 to 25 KTs with gusts to
30 KTs decrease to 10 to 15 KTs. CIGs lift and mix to SCT-BKN VFR
around midday on Monday with south-southeasterly winds around 10
KTs. MVFR CIGs return Monday evening.
At KDRT, VFR clouds with SHRA in the VCNTY early this evening, then
a brief period of MVFR CIGs early in the morning. A rapid return to
VFR skies is expected as winds shift to northwesterly at 7 to 12 KTs
in the wake of the dryline passage.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022/
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday Night)...
Seeing some changes in the low-levels noted on satellite this
afternoon, as low-clouds continue across the Coastal Plains and east
of the I35. This is a sign of increasing low-level moisture for the
eastern areas as continued deep southerly flow prevails over that
region. Across the west, dry air remains in place and some breezy
southwesterly flow will likely lead to near critical to critical
fire weather conditions for Val Verde County this afternoon. Latest
aircraft soundings at AUS and SAT both show a very large CAP above
the moist boundary layer. This should limit any surface based
convection today, but some recent runs of the HRRR show some
elevated showers associated with some mid-level moisture in the
western CWA. Will continue to hold onto the mention of PoPs with a
10 PoP through 3z to account for this and the small chance an
isolated storm is able to break through the cap.
For tonight, low clouds are likely for the eastern 2/3rds of the
area with the increase in moisture continuing. Lows will therefore
be warmer, in the lower to upper 60s across the region. Model
soundings are continuing to show a stout cap in place across the
area Monday afternoon. Not expecting to see much in the way of
convective development once again tomorrow. However, if anything
does initiate, steep mid-level lapse rates would support the threat
of large hail and damaging winds. The fire weather threat tomorrow
will be anchored by continued very dry humidity values in the west.
However, winds in this same area tomorrow will be in the 7-12 mph
range and not expecting any need for fire weather headlines. Highs
tomorrow will be in the middle 80s in the east and into the upper
90s in the west. More low clouds are expected Monday night with lows
in the middle 60s to near 70 degrees.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday night)...
On Tuesday, warm, moist air will be in place with dew points in the
60s to near 70. While cloud cover will likely remain over our far
eastern counties much of the day, sunshine in the afternoon will
allow temperatures to rise to near 100 over our southwestern areas.
A trough axis over the western CONUS will be in the process of
taking on a more negative tilt as it pushes towards the high Plains
during the day. While it`s primary mid-level lift will remain well
to our north during the afternoon and evening, a subtropical jet to
it`s south looks to potentially set up with it`s left exit region
near south-central Texas. In addition a shortwave embedded within
the WSW flow aloft should bring at least modest PVA to the area late
in the day, and a dryline will mix east towards US-281. West of it,
elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected.
East, thermodynamic profiles could support a potential for severe
storms over the east half of our region, but the question becomes:
Will there be enough low to mid-level mixing and lift to overcome
There is a dichotomy in the available model guidance with the
answer to this question, with the NAM holding onto and even
strengthening the capping inversion in the afternoon while the GFS
depicts it eroding. If storms are able to develop (~30% chance at
this time) the potential would be there for large to very large hail
(primary risk) , damaging winds, and a low chance for a tornado.
However, the opposite solution would mean another day with no rain
and a continued worsening of drought conditions across the Hill
Country. For the time being, this morning`s SPC outlook is still
valid, with a Marginal Risk of severe storms remains in place east
of Kerrville to Castroville to Charlotte, with a Slight Risk for
areas northeast of Llano to San Marcos to La Grange.
A secondary shower and storm chance may arrive overnight into
Wednesday morning ahead of this systems cold front. Although this
wouldn`t be the primary severe threat, there would still be a chance
for some stronger storms with this round. It`ll move out quickly by
midday, with brisk, dry NW flow behind it. Red flag warnings will be
needed for much if not all of the area as RH will fall into the
single digits across the west half of the region and teens to low
20s east. Winds will be weakest over the Coastal Plains but still in
the 10-15 mph range in the afternoon.
Zonal flow returns aloft on Thursday, and sfc winds will gradually
return to the E and then SE through the day. Temperatures will be
near to slightly above normal still behind the front Wednesday
through Friday. Continued elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions are expected, but moisture will begin to return overnight
into Friday. Could be a low chance for some precip on Friday, but
forecast confidence decreases significantly at that time. We do
anticipate a return to well-above normal temperatures on Saturday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 67 87 69 86 69 / 10 - 10 30 30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 67 87 68 86 69 / 10 10 10 30 30
New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 89 68 88 69 / 10 - 10 30 30
Burnet Muni Airport 66 91 67 88 66 / 10 - 10 30 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 67 98 70 100 65 / 10 0 - 10 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 67 88 68 87 69 / 10 - 10 30 30
Hondo Muni Airport 65 94 67 97 67 / 10 0 10 20 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 66 88 68 87 68 / 10 - 10 30 30
La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 85 70 84 70 / 10 10 10 30 30
San Antonio Intl Airport 67 90 69 89 69 / 10 - 10 20 20
Stinson Muni Airport 68 93 70 93 70 / 10 - 10 20 20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
802 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022
Issued at 801 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022
Basically the on-going forecast is very much on track. At 730
there is still no showers associated with the cold front headed
our way. All of the latest runs of HRRR, RAP models and the 18z
run of the NAM, ECWMF and GFS all show showers developing in the 9
pm and midnight time frame over eastern WI into central IL. This
is in response to quickly strengthening Low Level jet. At 10 pm
there is 40 knot jet core southwest of Chicago. By midnight it is
forecast to be 60 knot jet core near where the south buoy would
be if it were deployed. That puts southwest lower Michigan in the
speed convergence area of that jet core (actually this does not
happen all the much, typically we are the speed divergence area of
the low level jet). This will mean the storms will strengthen as
they move across Lake Michigan into Southwest Lower Michigan.
Helping the cause for these storms is MU capes between 500 and
1000 j/kg. In fact the HREF has a 60 pct chance of thunderstorms
in the I-69 area between midnight and 4 am.
This is likely to be a scattered line of storms as it moves on
shore but will become more of broken to solid line of convection
as it passes east of US-131. The area that at this point had the
greatest risk of rainfall is actually north of I-96 but that is
due to dynamical forcing from the mid-level shortwave. The storms
will be elevated so I do not expect and severe storms from this as
there is a nearly 3000 ft deep stable layer near the ground. Also
the cape at mid-levels is narrow so I do not expect any
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022
- Scattered storms tonight
Models are in general agreement in showing a 50 knot 850 mb jet
forming over the Central Plains this evening...then building into
Southern Lower MI overnight. A plume of higher PWAT values from
the Gulf...up over an inch...is drawn into the CWA then. Elevated
instability advects into the CWA as a result with the SPC HREF
mean MU CAPE values topping 500 J/kg roughly 06z to 10z tonight.
At the same time a strengthening upper level jet moves in from the
west leading to upper level divergence. Given the combination of
moisture...lift and instability tonight...we will maintain the
forecast for showers and thunderstorms. We will feature a slight
increase in the POPs as most of the ensemble members of the
various models are showing some light qpf.
- Potential for strong storms Tuesday night into Wednesday Evening
A surface low becomes centered over the Upper MS Valley Tuesday
night with a warm front extending eastward into Lower MI. With a
large 850 mb jet developing out ahead of the low in the warm
sector...abundant Gulf moisture gets drawn into the system. PWAT
values make a run at 1.25 inches along the warm front here in MI.
Aloft the upper level jet takes on an anticyclonic shape with the
low level jet underneath. This is a common setup for numerous
showers and thunderstorms...with an elevated risk for a period of
heavier rain. How much rain we end up with will depend partly on
where this warm front sets up. There is some potential for the
main area of rain to end up just north of the CWA Tuesday night. We
will still feature high POPs then to account for the warm frontal
passage Tuesday night.
There is an increasing potential for some severe weather on
Wednesday with the mid afternoon to evening hours looking like
the main period of concern. Aloft a strengthening upper level
wave is shown to lift up through the Western Great Lake Region
with abundant upper level divergence during this period as it
takes on a negative tilt. A strengthening low level jet forms
upstream in the Middle MS Valley and moves into the CWA with the
region fully in the warm sector during this window. Forecast
hodographs yield abundant helicity and low lcl`s. Ensemble
guidance for surface based CAPE values shows uncertainty as far as
how much instability we will generate...which could be a limiting
factor. However enough dynamics and lift will be present to make
the most of what instability we can generate. The cold front
pushes through from west to east in the late afternoon and evening
hours...which will likely the be main trigger for the strongest
- Impactful winds possible Thursday
As the surface low winds up in Southern Ontario...a tight pressure
gradient sets up here in MI on Thursday. Deep mixing associated
with cold air advection develops during the day. The mixing height
is shown to reach into the 40 knot range of winds here in Grand
Rapids from the GFS. The 12z High Res Euro shows 50 knot 850 mb
winds and stronger cold air advection the...which would also
support a potential for impactful surface winds. As a result...an
increased potential for winds to exceed 40 knots exists then.
This would be enough to warrant a wind advisory.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 801 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022
Really for the most part expect VFR conditions for the next 24
hours. However there will be 45 to 50 knots of Low Level Shear
tonight as there is 50 to 60 knots of wind from the southwest
between 2000 ft and 7000 ft agl through the night. Once the cold
front comes through and the sun can heat the air enough to cause
mixing winds will be gusty from the west - southwest.
There will also be a developing line of scattered showers
developing west of CHI-MKE prior to 05z. As that line crosses Lake
Michigan and moves into Southwest Lower Michigan in the 06z to
09z time frame thunderstorms are expected to develop. This line
of showers and storms should be east of Lansing by 09z or so. Cigs
and vsby should mostly be VFR but in the heavier storms do expect
some MVFR or even IFR in the storm cores.
Once the front clears the area around 12z, skies will clear below
10000 ft. However a mid-level shortwave trailing the front will
cause and area of rain to develop in the cold air north of that
cold front. The real question is how far north will that rain area
get into Michigan. I have VCSH for the TAF south of I-96 in the
afternoon but I put rain in JXN TAF late in the day. It should
stay VFR even so.
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022
We will maintain the small craft advisory for later this afternoon
into tonight. The low level wind fields will be strengthening as
low level jet moves in. Based on mixing heights and forecast winds
at those levels...surface gusts over 25 knots look likely. There
could even be a few gale gusts.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for LMZ844>849.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1042 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022
Showers this afternoon will gradually give way to clearing
tonight and a sunny day to start the work week. Monday will be
warm and dry, though a seabreeze in the afternoon may knock
temperatures back near the coast late in the day. A warm front
moving through the region Monday night will lead to showers but
also some pleasant weather Tuesday afternoon and again
Wednesday. A more organized system makes an approach to New
England by late week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM Update...
No significant changes for the near term portion of the
forecast. Scattered upslope snow showers will continue under a
northwesterly flow. Most of the cloudiness will continue to be
over northern areas which is supported by the latest HREF
solution. Winds will continue to gradually ease with time during
the overnight hours. Minor adjustments were made to
temperatures, dew points and cloud cover.
Winds will continue to ease late this evening across the
forecast area despite a northwesterly gradient over the region.
Nevertheless, the breeze will keep the region relatively well
mixed, allowing for overnight lows to fall into a tight range,
mainly from the upper 20s north to the mid 30s in the south.
Most of the cloud cover will continue to be over the upslope
regions of the mountains through the night. This is where there
will be scattered snow showers and possibly light accumulations
over the higher terrain. These overnight snow showers are
supported by the latest HRRR and the 3 km NAM solutions.
Scattered showers, mainly across NH, will begin to
taper into the evening w/ loss of daytime heating. A light
breeze will also continue overnight as temperatures again fall
into the lower 30s.
The broad trough/upper low that had been parked over the
Maritimes late this week will finally move east, freeing
northern New England from its unsettled influence. There will be
one last push of NW winds tonight in the low levels, and with
cold air here, mixing and breeze will continue. HREF guidance
from this morning and last evening echo continuing cloud cover
for much of the western mountains and valleys through late
tonight/ early Mon morning, with most other locations becoming
clear with drier air.
Temps should fall back into the lower 30s with the clear skies
and mixing just undulating more cool air to the sfc without
decoupling/inverting. While some icy patches developed on
elevated surfaces last night w/ recent rain and falling temps,
believe that threat will be lower tonight. The exception may be
south/central NH where passing showers today could have wet some
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging pushes east into New England Monday. This will bring
dry and sunny conditions for the forecast area. Will need to
monitor fire weather conditions, noted in section below.
Monday will begin a stretch of warm days set for this week.
With widespread clear skies expected by daybreak, a full sun
start to the day will surely help areas warm quick towards 60
for much of the coastal plain and interior. Even some of the
mountain valleys will climb into the upper 50s with just the
higher summits cooler. NW winds continue as the ridge presses
the pressure grad against exiting low. Slackening winds in the
column will mean less breezy conditions to mix down, but will
also mean the possible formation of a sea breeze along the coast
later. This may spoil 60s along the immediate coast come early
afternoon, but the sun will feel warm nonetheless.
The ridge crests Monday night with increasing cloudiness ahead
of precip advancing w/ weak triple point low. Temps should
remain warmer than Sunday night, both with SW flow and the
increasing cloud cover capping some of the warm air left over
from daytime. There will be the chance of some snow mixing in
north of the mountains, however after the warm day, little to no
accumulation is expected.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview: Ridge trof ridge pattern continues in the
extended...with a broad trof settling over the region by the
weekend. While there may be some cool temps sprinkled
in...overall they should average above normal for the period.
Impacts: No significant weather related impacts are anticipated
through the end of the week. Wed may see another deep mixing day
with RH values dropping near to below 30 percent...but winds
will remain lighter.
Forecast Details: Either a rapid progression of warm/cold front
combo or an occlusion moves thru on Tue. After a quick round of
showers there should be relatively fast clearing from west to
east thru the day. That will delay mixing to start...but by
afternoon we should be mixing to near H8 and there will be
pleasant temps across the area. Given the rain and delayed
mixing the RH values will remain mostly above 40 percent for the
High pressure and clear skies Wed will allow for much faster
mixing despite some return flow and moistening occurring.
Dewpoints may actually be cooler in the mid morning time frame
before deeper moisture starts to work in aloft. Mixing down from
the top of the boundary layer keeps dewpoints mainly in the 30s
during the afternoon...but with warmer temps that means RH
values between 25 and 30 percent for a large part of the
forecast area. Once again winds will be fairly well behaved and
remain at or below 10 kt...preventing more widespread critical
fire weather concerns.
Weak S/WV trof still there in the guidance Wed night...topping
the ridge and sending a backdoor cold front thru at least part
of the forecast area. There will be showery weather along the
warm frontal boundary as it lifts thru the region. The best
chance to salvage a decent day will be the CT River Valley and
the Monadnocks where some brief clearing may occur before the
cold front arrives.
Timing on that cold front will be sometime in the late afternoon
or evening Thu. Because of the backdoor front remaining fairly
stationary...the warm sector will be quite narrow in our
forecast area...but a marginally unstable air mass is still
possible. Around 500 J/kg CAPE is forecast across parts of
southern NH into the Lakes Region...and adjacent southwestern
ME. I have thunder in the forecast for these regions...but will
need a little more consensus before getting more detailed than
scattered to isolated storms.
Fri looks to be another pleasant day before a rather flat trof
settles into the region for the weekend. Showers look more
likely Sun than Sat...so I have higher PoP on the latter half of
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR tonight. -SHRA will taper across NH and parts
of ME this afternoon, leading to clear skies through Monday. A
sea breeze may cause a wind shift at RKD, PWM, or PSM Mon
afternoon. Clouds will thicken and lower Monday night ahead of
Long Term...Mostly VFR conditions expected thru Wed night. Some
local MVFR or lower conditions are possible in SHRA Tue morning
before clearing out quickly in the afternoon. Backdoor cold
front and prolonged onshore flow Wed night thru Thu will likely
lead to widespread MVFR or lower conditions north of the
boundary. The threat of marine fog/stratus will increase late
Thu before the cold front crosses the region. Some local IFR
conditions are possible in SHRA/TSRA Thu as well.
Short Term...SCA conditions this evening and overnight as NW
winds increase ahead of arriving high pressure Monday.
Conditions improve, with below SCA conditions expected Monday
into Monday night.
Long Term...Winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA
conditions thru the extended. If they are to occur the best
chance for SCA conditions will likely be with the cold frontal
passage Thu night as seas increase on southerly flow.
Despite a few damp days across the CWA, some variables will
approach critical fire weather conditions Monday. A dry air
mass will move in overnight, with relative humidity values
falling into the 20 to 25 percent range across much of central
and southern NH during the afternoon. Low RH values 25 to 30
percent will also be possible across the ME interior/foothills.
Going against these dry air conditions will be lighter winds and
the recent wetting rains from showers Saturday and for some
locations Sunday. Additionally, a sea breeze may develop along
the coast with locally breezier conditions amid a wind shift,
but also higher humidity air.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150>154.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1135 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022
Surface analysis this evening shows deep low pressure in place over
MN with a cold front extending south through eastern IA and NE MO to
SE KS and OK. A moderate pressure gradient was in place across
Central Indiana ahead of the low pressure system. Central Indiana
remained within the warm sector with southeast surface winds and
ongoing warm air advection. GOES16 shows mid and high clouds across
Central Indiana as well as across the region. The nearest convection
and precipitation was found over Central TX and western MN. Dew
points remained quite dry...within the mid 30s.
Overnight the low to the north is expected to push northeast and
continue to slowly drag the associated cold front east toward
Indiana. Minimal forcing is expected overnight...however a moderate
LLJ with wind speeds of 40-50 knts is expected to persist overnight.
HRRR tries to suggest some sct shra development overnight...but
other than the LLJ forcing...little in the way of overall dynamics
are present. Only high clouds are found across the region and dew
points as stated remain quite dry. Thus confidence for rain
developing overnight has diminished. Have trended pops toward a dry
forecast until about 4AM...and then slowly beginning ramping toward
low chance pops by morning as the cold front to our west will be
much closer to arriving. Given our good mixing...high cloud and warm
air advection...temperatures are not expected to fall much. Only
trended lows toward the mid 50s.
.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022
* Significant warm-up underway
* Rain returns tomorrow and we continue to refined timing and amounts
* Thunderstorms are possible Monday; a few strong to severe storms
possible in southern Indiana
In the near term, we`ve made minor adjustments upward to
temperatures based on observational trends. Also, mixing and
momentum transfer has caused wind gusts to around 30 mph, especially
across western Indiana.
In water vapor channel imagery, a shortwave trough is clearly
evident emerging from the Rockies onto the northern Plains. This is
inducing strong meridional low-level flow and warm/moist
advection in the Plains, which will nudge northeastward into our
area later tonight. A surge of deeper moisture is already seen in
advected layer precipitatable water in Texas, and models show a
deep moisture connection for our area emanating from low-
latitudes. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to
increase in coverage across Illinois tonight and could move into
portions of central Indiana after midnight. Anomalous precipitable
water values and modest isentropic ascent within the warm
advection regime will lead to fairly widespread coverage of
showers and isolated thunderstorms tomorrow, until the front sent
south by the aforementioned shortwave trough pushes through most
of the area by tomorrow night.
Later in the day there is some signal for deeper more intense
convection to our southwest to move into portions of southern
Indiana, perhaps as far north as Vincennes and Bedford. A low
probability of marginally severe thunderstorms exists from those
locations southward. Hail up to quarter size and wind gusts to 60
mph would be the threats in a reasonable worst case scenario.
Limiting factors include (1) elevated parcels and modest effective
shear from the warm nose (parcel origin) upward, (2) uncertainty
on position of the front and potential for elevated fast-moving
cells to organize further south, closer to the Ohio River,
displacing the threat south of our forecast area.
The front and precipitation near it should shift into southern
Indiana overnight, with limited coverage across our forecast area.
.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022
* Continued warm with a conditional low risk of storms Tuesday
* Strong/severe storms possible Wednesday; damaging winds and
heavy rainfall are the primary concern
* Modest cool down to near normal late week
A strong mid-latitude system will move through mid-week bringing
some concern for strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall. Above
normal temperatures will precede this system, with only a modest
cool down in its wake. Details are found below.
There is a conditional risk for thunderstorms on Tuesday, and this
potential will mainly depend on the position of the warm front.
Isentropic ascent north of the front may drive elevated convection.
South of the front, differential advection pattern is seen in model
soundings with residual capping elevated mixed layer atop a
relatively cool/moist PBL. With large scale ascent remaining to the
west and lack of focus for convective initiation, much of the
anomalously warm/moist open warm sector may fail to see deep
convection and the light QPF signal in models is probably tied to a
shallow convective process.
With regards to warm front timing, models have converged on a
solution of returning it northward through the morning hours from
its quasi-stalled position Monday night to our south. We have over-
achieved with temperatures with previous warm advection regimes so
far this season, but this time may be different given the potential
for substantial PBL moisture/saturation limiting the diabatic
contribution and depth of mixing somewhat. Thus, we`re reluctant
to deviate from blended model guidance for temperatures Tuesday at
this time. Still pleasantly warm though.
A compact southern stream shortwave trough will move quickly into
the area providing a brief period of ascent and deep saturation
sometime Wednesday. This will likely be during the morning, but
model timing differences still exist. This will be accomplanied
by a wave of precipitation. Moist adiabatic profiles and poor
midlevel lapse rates should limit thunder potential with this
There may be a break in precipitation post-lead wave and before the
deep mid-latitude system`s trailing front passes. Medium range
deterministic and ensemble guidance has generally converged on
similar timing with deep cyclone and its attendant frontal
convective band that will move into our area sometime late
Wednesday or Wednesday night. We will highlight this time range
with the highest precipitation probabilities accordingly.
Strong kinematic fields, anomalous moisture, and instability
(albeit minimal) will be enough for some strong to severe storm
concern. Most likely in the form of linear connection within a
strongly forced regime. The primary threat would be damaging
winds. Colorado State University machine learning severe
probabilities do extend into the area, and there is a CIPS analog
The flooding threat appears to present but low given the progressive
nature of the frontal precipitation band. Certainly, there is enough
deep saturation to increase precipitation efficiency for a short
period of heavy rainfall rates though. Rainfall amounts may be
enough to see at least a minor uptick in river levels into late
Thursday and Friday:
Pivoting PV lobe, deeper saturation and precipitation will shift
east by Thursday. The track of the deepening mid-latitude system
over southern Canada supports only modest cold advection, lowering
our temperatures only to near or just below normal values.
Chaos grows in the medium-range ensemble spaghetti plots into
next weekend. The general pattern should feature low-latitude
ridging/positive height anomalies and high-latitude broad
troughing/negative height anomalies, with fast quasi-zonal flow at
jet level in between. We will still carry low probabilities in
precipitation given some signal in the models for a PV lobe
rotating around filling Canadian deep low interacting with a
perturbation in the westerlies. This would be a conditional and
complicated enough interaction that probabilities were kept broad
in time range and low, for now. Temperatures during this period
should stay close to climatology, or perhaps just below.
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1135 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022
- VFR the rest of the of the overnight.
- Non-convective low level wind shear possible overnight
- CIGs deteriorating to MVFR 12z-15z Monday morning
- SHRA/isolated TSRA coverage slowly increasing Monday.
GOES16 shows high cloud over IL and Indiana pushing east within the
warm sector ahead of a cold front. VFR conditions were found across
the region as Central Indiana. A moderate LLJ is expected overnight
as 850 winds appear near 40-50knts. Again have included a LLWS
mention for this feature.
A few echos within the LLJ have appeared over Central IL but these
appear to be short lived as a less favorable air mass is in place
across Central Indiana with dew points in the mid 30s. Little
eastward propagation is expected and any coverage will be minimal.
As the surface low pushes northeast overnight...a cold front is
expected to nudge toward Indiana. Time heights and forecast
soundings show saturation arriving within the lower levels amid warm
air advection...mainly late tonight. Thus have trended toward MVFR
Cigs arriving late overnight and on Monday.
As the associated cold front passes across Indiana on Monday...
showers and a cold front are expected to push across the
state...with more favorable forcing in place. HRRR shows sct showers
lingering across Central Indiana and time heights show good lift and
saturation through the day. Thus trended toward prevailing -shra for
much of the afternoon. Timing on any TSRA is uncertain at this point
but lapse rates within forecast soundings suggest a rumble of
thunder cannot be ruled out. Brief IFR conditions will be possible
with any brief TSRA that does occur.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
912 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022
Windy conditions continue along and west of the Mississippi River
at this hour. A few locations are still gusting to 30 knots with
sustained winds near 20 knots. The wind advisory was extended to
account for these gradient winds and may be cancelled early if
The latest surface analysis places a 995mb low near MSP with a
cold front extending south through Waterloo, Iowa, southeast back
into Kansas City, Missouri, and back into Stillwater, Oklahoma.
Ahead of the front, a few showers have begun to form near the
ArkLaTex along an upper level leading shortwave. This shower
activity will move into the Mid-South overnight with a few rumbles
of thunder possible as mid level lapse rates steepen to around
7.5 C/km. No severe weather is anticipated.
Shower and storm activity is expected to blossom by late morning
tomorrow with a few strong storms possible along the Kentucky and
Tennessee state lines.
The current forecast is on track with major changes needed at this
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022/
See the 00z aviation discussion.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022/
Warm and windy conditions are occurring across the Mid-South this
afternoon. Winds are currently 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35-40
mph. The strong winds have helped temperatures climb into the
upper 70s to lower 80s. The winds are slowly bringing an increase
in moisture but there is a lag across much of North Mississippi
and portions of West Tennessee where Red Flag conditions are being
met due to the winds and low relative humidity values at or below
25 percent. Expect the winds to begin to diminish around sunset
which will also alleviate the fire weather concerns.
Meanwhile, an active weather pattern is expected across the
Mid-South this week. Several round of possible severe weather
could occur as warm temperatures and an unstable airmass remain
over the region. Warm air advection showers and thunderstorms will
begin occurring during the overnight hours tonight into Monday
morning. This activity should dissipate by midday Monday.
The first round of severe weather is then expected to occur late
Monday afternoon into Monday evening. The ongoing southerly flow
will bring lower 60s dew points into the area by Monday
afternoon. Most of the CAM models are showing a frontal boundary
dipping south into Northern Arkansas stretching northeastward to
the Ohio River Monday night where showers and thunderstorms will
develop along and ahead of the front and drift southward toward
the I-40 corridor by midnight. In addition, the HRRR continues to
show some supercells out ahead of the front developing across
Central Arkansas during the late afternoon hours. If this occurs
these would move into Eastern Arkansas during the early evening
hours. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible
with any severe storms. Expect the severe threat to diminish by
midnight due to the loss of daytime heating.
The front will lift back north as a warm front Tuesday morning.
Expect much of Tuesday to be dry with the exception of a few
isolated warm air advection showers. Temperatures should climb
into the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs. This will produce a
warm, moist, and unstable air mass across the Mid-South just in
time for the next round of severe weather which is expected
Tuesday evening into the overnight hours on Wednesday. Models are
showing thunderstorms developing across Southern Arkansas as a
shortwave trough moves into the region. The convection will then
lift northeastward into the Midsouth and eventually into the Ohio
Valley by Wednesday morning. All modes of severe weather will be
possible with this round as well as Heavy rain which could lead to
Questions still remain about round 3 of severe weather which is
expected to occur late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday Night.
It will depend on if there is any lingering morning convection
and how quickly it clears? If the convection hangs on too long
then the atmosphere may not have time to recover in time for the
next round of severe weather. However, if the atmosphere can
indeed recover then there will be possibility of severe weather as
a potent negatively upper trof will be moving through the Upper
Midwest as the associated trailing cold front moves into the Mid-
South late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday Night. Supercell
development out ahead of the front in addition to a QLCS along the
front will be possible with the front as dewpoints climb into the
mid to upper 60s ahead of the approaching front. CAPE values will
likely be around 1500 J/KG and will be combined with 0-1 km SRH
of greater than 300 M2/S2. Thus if this airmass is in place then
tornadoes, damaging wind and large hail will be possible with any
severe storms. Flash flooding may also occur especially in
locations that receive heavy rain Tuesday Night into Wednesday.
High pressure will build into the region for Thursday. However,
the tranquil weather will be short-lived as another low pressure
system is then expected to affect the Mid-South next weekend.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur during this time
period. However, there is a lot of model disagreement in how the
system will exactly evolve. Stay tuned.
Strong southerly winds will prevail through the overnight period
with gusts to 30 kts at JBR/MEM. Only a few high clouds are
expected this evening, but lower clouds will begin to move into
the area after 06z with a few warm advection showers developing
between 08-12z. Areas of MVFR ceilings around 2500 ft AGL are
expected Monday morning across much of the Mid-South with
additional showers, and a few thunderstorms, developing through
early afternoon. We should see a bit of a convective lull by mid-
afternoon with improving sky conditions along/south of I-40.
However, lower ceilings are expected to hang on at JBR with IFR
conditions anticipated after 18z.
Southerly winds will increase again Monday, though not as strong
as today. We`ll see compression impacts from low-level wind shear
(SSW wind at 2 kft AGL near 45 kts) tonight and likely again
AR...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for Clay-Craighead-
MO...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for Coahoma-DeSoto-
TN...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for Dyer-Lake-
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
623 PM PDT Sun Apr 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Breezy to gusty winds are likely through this
afternoon and again on Monday, especially near the coast and in
the hills/ridges. A frontal boundary will bring widespread, albeit
light, rainfall to the region on Monday along with cooler
temperatures. Cool and unsettled weather continues through late
week with additional rainfall possible.
.DISCUSSION...as of 01:46 PM PDT Sunday...High clouds continue to
move over the region this afternoon ahead of an approaching
mid/upper level low pressure center along the British Columbia
coast. Meanwhile, temperatures have warmed into the upper 50s near
the coast to lower 70s inland as anticipated with a few degrees
of additional warming possible. Winds across the interior continue
to diminish as well and have turned onshore near the coast. Thus,
look for breezy and gusty northwesterly winds along the coast and
in the hills/ridges this afternoon. Wind gusts generally will
range between 30 to 40 mph with isolated locations peaking around
All attention turns to the aforementioned mid/upper level system
which will drop southward through the night and push a frontal
boundary across the Bay Area on Monday. This will result in light
rain developing over the North Bay around sunrise before spreading
inland and southward through the morning. By late morning and into
the early afternoon, this boundary will impact the Central Coast
while conditions begin to dry out to the north. Rainfall amounts
generally will remain light with most urban areas picking up < 0.10"
with isolated amounts upwards of 0.20". Meanwhile, the coastal
ranges look to receive around 0.25" with the latest HRRR and other
short-range, high-resolution models indicating the potential for
upwards of 0.50" the typically wetter spots. Breezy winds will also
develop in wake of the passing frontal boundary during the daylight
hours with winds gradually diminishing by Monday night. The cloud
cover, precipitation and cold air advection aloft will hold daytime
temperatures in the 50s for much of the region on Monday as well.
Cool and unsettled weather conditions then are likely to persist
through the remainder of the upcoming week as a broad mid/upper
level trough lingers over the West. Additional weather systems are
likely to drop southward into the Pacific Northwest and northern
California by late week. These systems are likely to bring
additional rainfall to the region, yet details remain difficult to
nail down at this point. The greatest probability of additional
rainfall and greatest rainfall amounts will be over the North Bay
with diminishing chances as you head south across the Central Coast.
Overall though, rainfall amounts do not look to be substantial. Stay
.AVIATION...as of 6:23 PM PDT Sunday...For the 00Z TAFs. VFR
through the evening then quickly lowering ceilings and visibilities
/MVFR-IFR/ north to south tonight and early Monday morning with
showers, possibly moderate to heavy, with a fast moving cold front
Monday morning. Strong and gusty northwest winds this evening
with high pressure quickly moving across the cwa preceding
Monday`s cold front and reinforcement of cold air. Decent surface
pressure falls with Monday`s cold front along with the meso-scale
models showing a surface low center developing over the Sacramento
Valley; forecast precipitable water (pw) values quickly
approaching 0.80" to 0.90" Monday morning prior to cold frontal
passage, that`s high end pw for a cold front, model qpf may be
under-forecast especially if dynamics spin up a little stronger
Rapidly deteoriating conditions late tonight and Monday morning,
then strong cold air advection primarily driving strong and gusty
west to northwest winds Monday. Winds likely easing Monday night
and Tuesday morning with clearing, returning air mass stability
favoring surface wind decoupling. Freezing levels lowering to 2-3
thousand feet AGL across our cwa per upper air forecast soundings
Monday afternoon and evening.
Vicinity of KSFO...Northwest wind peak gust so far 50 knots (58
mph) at 4:53 pm, 5 minute observations still showing gusts to 35
to 42 knots. On the ocean side of the peninsula, strong and gusty
winds are lifting sea spray into the air, resulting in hazy
conditions along the coast and periodically lowering surface
visibility to MVFR /3-5 miles/ in haze at KHAF Airport. Strong
winds are also transporting hazy/haze conditions to SFO Airport.
Ceiling rapidly developing late tonight and Monday morning with
showers, possibly moderate to heavy, with cold frontal passage
Monday morning. MVFR forecast Monday morning with cold front,
conditions could lower to IFR in heavier showers; may adjust the
taf to reflect this by 06z taf issuance. Post cold frontal winds
ramping up again Monday, statistical guidance shows at least
similarly strong winds Monday as compared to today`s winds.
Showers diminishing by late Monday morning and afternoon, VFR
forecast though hazy conditions may still continue with wind
driven sea spray lofted into the air and advected toward SFO
Airport in the afternoon and evening. West to northwest winds
diminishing Monday night and Tuesday morning.
KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay...Gusty winds around here as well, KMRY Airport peak
gust so far 32 knots (37 mph) at 4:45 pm. Gusty northwest winds
across the Monterey Bay is lifting sea spray into the air (the
vsby is reduced somewhat by a hazy view outside our office
windows) and transported to KMRY, the ceilometer is incorrectly
indicating OVC ceiling. The current air mass and northwest
upsloping winds is furthering cooling which may eventually yield a
BKN-OVC ceiling this evening which the HREF output shows beginning
possibly as soon as 04z this evening. Will closely monitor
conditions and amend as necessary for possible IFR ceiling(s)
developing this evening.
.MARINE...as of 5:02 PM PDT Sunday...The sea state remains wind
driven as strong northerly winds with gale force gusts prevail.
Large, very steep wind driven combined seas are possible of 09 to
13 feet at 09 to 11 seconds. Smaller craft vessels are advised to
avoid venturing out in these rough conditions. A lull in the winds
is forecast for Sunday night into Monday, before intensifying
again Monday night. Slight chance for light rain over the waters
early Monday morning as a weak front passes southward. Gradual
weakening is forecast Tuesday through the end of the week.
.Tngt...GLW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 AM
GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM
GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 9 PM
SCA...SF Bay until 3 AM
SCA...Mry Bay until 3 AM
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
835 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
Hourly forecast grids are holding up well so far, but have trimmed
the overnight POP`s across our western zones. HRRR shows very few
cells developing in Middle Tennessee until after 12Z. Evening
sounding from OHX shows a largely dry atmosphere still in place.
Surface dew point spread is still 32F at 01Z, so it will take some
additional moisture advection to get us to a point for
precipitation to be able to reach the ground.
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Surface winds have increased considerably from
the south now that high pressure has shifted to our east. A cold
front that is currently developing to our west will continue to
gather moisture before entering the mid state tomorrow night. In
the near term, expect LLWS to develop later this evening as near-
surface winds continue to pick up steam. Expect showers to develop
overnight and tomorrow as the front edges closer.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
952 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022
...New SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 952 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022
At mid evening...a cold front stretched from northern Missouri to
far southeast Kansas into northeast Oklahoma...near a Bartlesville
to Pawnee line... and then extended southwest to a surface low in
southwest Oklahoma. North of this boundary...dewpoints were in the
upper 30s to mid 40s in far northeast Oklahoma. While along and
southeast of the front...upper 50s to around 60 deg dewpoints
were common across the rest of eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. A mid level impulse marked by increasing mid level
moisture/cloud cover was pushing eastward from western Oklahoma
this evening. The interaction of this feature with lift along the
slowly moving cold front will aid in the anticipated storm
initiation across northern/northeast Oklahoma over the next hour
Overnight tonight...thunderstorm development is expected near and
to the north of the surface frontal boundary in northeast
Oklahoma...and then spreading into east central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas overnight tonight into Monday morning. At the
onset of development...surface based CAPE of 1000j/kg and greater
combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and 500-mb temperatures
around -18C will increase severe potentials with large hail and
damaging wind being the primary threats. If any storm can be more
discrete along the boundary and take advantage of forecast 2-300
m2/s2 effective storm relative helicity and pooling 60 deg
dewpoints...an isolated tornado may be possible. This looks to be
a short window as storms are forecast to become increasingly
elevated behind the front overnight tonight. The greater severe
potential is expected across northeast Oklahoma into far northwest
Arkansas through tonight...with overall severe potentials
weakening late tonight into Monday morning.
The cold front and or surface outflow boundary is forecast to push
into east central Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas by 12z
Monday. Northerly winds will help temps behind the front to fall
into the 50s...while southerly winds keep temps in the 60s ahead
of the boundary tonight. For the evening update...have adjusted
pops/wx based on the mentioned above and latest trends. Also added
minor adjustments to hourly temp/dewpoint trends based on latest
obs and forecast movement of the boundary. The rest of the
forecast seems to be handling well at this time.
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022
The boundary will work its way down into southeast OK and western
AR on Monday. The extended hours of the latest HRRR and the 12Z
HREF suggest some potential for storms along/east of the front
by Monday afternoon/evening. Slowly rising mid level heights
suggest no upper support and thus coverage should remain fairly
isolated. Strong instability suggests severe storms possible with
hail/winds main threat.
Shower and storm chances will increase Tuesday afternoon and
evening across the ArkLaTex and neighboring portions of SE OK and
WC AR in association with a subtropical wave. As previous shift
mentioned, some subsidence in the wake of this wave makes dryline
development farther to the west more uncertain. If a storm goes,
storms would have higher-end severe weather potential. Warm
advection showers and storms may increase in coverage late Tuesday
night in advance of the ejection of a strong upper level storm
system into the Plains with some severe potential.
A cold front will march east across the region Wednesday, earlier
rather than later. Severe storm potential will be greatest over
far eastern OK into western AR ahead of the front during the
midday and early afternoon hours before the threat moves quickly
east of the region.
Shower and storm chances will increase by the Easter weekend,
first in on Friday with a weak wave, and then by Sunday in
association with a stronger cold front. Cooler weather is expected
as we head into the following week with the possibility of more
frost/freeze headlines at some point.
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022
Cold front, currently located near a KOKC/KBVO line will continue
to push slowly southeast overnight. As mid level speed max
approaches from the west, strong storms will likely develop in the
KBVO area, near frontal boundary, by late evening. Lingering
areas of rain with embedded thunderstorms will likely persist,
north of the front, across NE OK, through the overnight hours.
Otherwise, lower IFR/MVFR ceilings will likely develop along/south
of the front, continuing for much of the day with scattered
showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm or two across NW AR.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 55 70 57 84 / 70 20 10 10
FSM 61 76 62 81 / 40 60 30 20
MLC 62 78 62 81 / 20 30 10 20
BVO 51 69 51 84 / 90 20 10 10
FYV 56 70 57 79 / 80 80 30 20
BYV 57 67 56 78 / 80 80 30 10
MKO 59 72 58 81 / 60 60 10 10
MIO 52 66 52 81 / 90 60 10 10
F10 59 73 58 83 / 60 30 10 10
HHW 64 83 66 81 / 10 20 20 30