Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/10/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
836 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022 Currently, there are some showers inedited over mountains and upstream of the CWA to the west currently. Observations are showing the incoming cold front into Weld County and just through Greeley 5 minutes ago. There are also a few showers producing virga over the far northeast corner. The latest high resolution models are still showing some minor showers overnight, especially over the mountains. Will make a few adjustments to pops, with a bit less for the plains overnight. Will make sure the timing of this evening`s front is accurate. Will also adjust temperatures overnight and Sunday; just a little. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022 A storm system will move across northern Colorado this evening with snow showers expected to increase in the mountains. Latest RAP shows a brief window of moderate QG ascent from 00z-06Z this evening of 20-30 mb/hr. Storm totals in the 1 to 5 inch range expected, highest north of the I-70 corridor. Some instability with this feature as well with a 90 kt jet max. Will add isold thunderstorms as well primarily over the northern mountains and the plains along the northern border. A cold front associated with this system will push into Denver in the 8-10 pm range with northeasterly post frontal winds. The best chance of precipitation will remain north and northwest of Denver, but 20-30 percent pops seem okay for now as a few of the models are showing a little qpf. On Sunday, it will be around 20 degrees cooler. Gusty bora winds will develop with good mid level lapse rates and decent downward mid level subsidence expected. Not enough wind for a high wind warning, but strong winds will elevate the fire weather conditions in spite of the cooler temperatures. Reference the fire weather discussion below for details. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 148 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022 Broad zonal flow aloft will be in place Monday ahead of an approaching strong storm system. Mid-level southwesterly flow will help warm temperatures back into the 60s across most of the lower elevations during the day. Gusty winds will be likely across the Palmer Divide and far eastern plains where elevated or perhaps critical fire weather conditions will be possible yet again. Lee troughing will keep winds light across the foothills and urban corridor but warm/dry conditions are still forecast there. We should start to see some mountain rain and snow showers late Monday night into Tuesday as a broad, deep upper trough moves across the intermountain west. Guidance continues to slowly trend towards a largely unfavorable storm track for Colorado, with the initial upper level low weakening across the northwestern Rockies before reforming somewhere in the Northern Plains. With southwesterly flow likely to continue Tuesday, we should see highs in the 60s to 70s over the plains with unsettled weather continuing across the mountains. Even in the high country, moisture isn`t particularly impressive and the current QPF forecast isn`t particularly robust. Cold air should push in Tuesday night into Wednesday as a strong cold front works across the plains. There may be a brief window of opportunity east of the divide to see some rain or snow late Tuesday night/early Wednesday AM with a short period of upslope flow combined with at least a little surface moisture. The non-GFS blend is bullish on QPF over the Foothills, but would like to see a lot more consistency before making any major deviations from blended guidance. Uncertainty increases through the rest of the week as longer- range guidance struggles with the evolution of the longwave trough. There is fairly good ensemble support for cool weather to continue into next weekend, but any specifics are too uncertain to discuss in detail. We`ll likely need to wait a couple days... at least until the models figure out the first wave... until we have a clearer picture. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 830 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022 The current cold front looks to be moving southward across the CWA a bit quicker than was earlier advertised. Will make appropriate adjustments. Will go with a brief period of ceilings in the BKN030-040 range from 08Z- 12Z. Will also leave in VCSH in that time frame. Will bring in Sunday`s expected strong northwesterly winds in by 16Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 830 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022 Critical fire weather conditions have subsided early this evening so the Red Flag Warning has expired. Dry and windy conditions are expected across the urban corridor and northeast plains on Sunday, in spite of the cooler temperatures. Therefore the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag warning and also included Fire Weather Zones 246 and 247. Elevated or near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible on Monday and Tuesday ahead of a strong storm system. Minimum humidity both days is expected to fall in the 15-20% range across the Palmer Divide and into the far eastern/northeastern plains. Winds are expected to be lighter across the Foothills and urban corridor limiting fire danger. We may eventually need additional headlines... especially along and southeast of I-76... but confidence is too low at this time. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Sunday for COZ238>251. && $$ UPDATE..........Koop SHORT TERM......Coop LONG TERM.......Hiris AVIATION........Koop FIRE WEATHER....Koop/Coop/Hiris
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
938 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 After another chilly night in which frost and freeze temperatures will remain a concern, the pattern breaks in a major way. By tomorrow, temperatures will surge into the 70s with near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms between Sunday and Wednesday. Some of these storms will be severe, so be sure to check the forecast each day for updates. && .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 The weather the rest of the night will be on the quiet side, as central Illinois will be between systems. The gusty afternoon winds have diminished, and skies are relatively clear of clouds under a narrow corridor of high pressure. Diurnal cooling will be maximized in our eastern counties, where winds will remain light through morning. That will allow low temps to drop to freezing or slightly below. The Freeze Warning counties still look good, and no adjustments will be needed with that headline. Areas west of I-55 will see increasing southerly winds later tonight. That will cause late night temps to steady out or even slowly rise before sun-up, keeping low temps in our western counties above freezing in the mid to upper 30s. Deep mixing will occur early Sunday morning, responding to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Wind gusts by mid-morning will climb toward 30 mph, with up to 40 mph southerly gusts by mid-day. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday) ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 The few targets of opportunity over the short term include (1) low temperatures tonight and how they impact frost/freeze headlines, (2) gusty winds on Sunday, and (3) PoPs for late Sunday evening. Frost/Freeze: Glancing through the latest suite of 12z hi-res guidance suggests that locations east of a Lacon-to-Olney line have the best chance of temperatures falling below 33 degrees tonight. Given the immaturity and non-uniformity of early-season vegetation across central and southern Illinois, it`s challenging to architect Frost/Freeze headlines. Nevertheless, we`ve collaborated a Freeze Warning for a good handful of our SE counties. Be sure to check the latest Vegetation Freeze Susceptibility Guidance ( to better understand how we decide which counties to include in headlines. Our decision to upgrade to a warning comes down to the effects of diurnal cooling, and is supported by the latest hi-res guidance. As skies clear and winds go light overnight across portions of central and east central Illinois, temperatures will crash near their dew point. Both the 12z HRRR and latest NBM v4.1 suggest temperatures will fall near or below 33 degrees across the eastern third of our cwa late tonight, while the 12z HREF offers a slightly milder solution. Regardless, we anticipate widespread frost to develop across our eastern third into Sunday morning before an uptick in wind speed. Gusty Winds: The surface pressure gradient will begin to tighten Sunday morning ahead of a robust 500-mb trough and its attendant surface low. Both hi-res and multi-model guidance reveal occasional gusts between 30-40 mph, mainly north of the I-70 corridor. Some of the highest gusts of the day may occur late in the morning east of the Illinois River Valley where strong warm-air advection and steepening lapse rates support deeper mixing. PoPs Sunday Night: Showers and storms are trending later into Sunday evening, and look likely to extend into mid-morning Monday before the LLJ recedes and convection wanes. Any strong/severe storms will likely focus along the front, which appears to sag south of the I-72 corridor by the time the LLJ and mid-level shortwave impulse helps initiate convection in our area. Model soundings continue to exhibit a strong capping inversion during this timeframe, so storms will mainly remain elevated; but elongated hodographs may support a few instances of large hail across portions of central and south central Illinois late Sunday night into Monday morning. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 A stalled out surface front will begin to lift back northward across the region by Tuesday in response to a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains. This will position central Illinois within a broad warm sector with low 60s dewpoints amid strengthening low- and mid-level flow. Despite an increasingly juicy boundary layer and backed surface winds in the vicinity of the warm front, thermal profiles appear too capped for storms to initiate by Tuesday afternoon. The better triggers arrive Tuesday evening as a potent shortwave trough lifts across the Mid- Mississippi Valley. This along with a strengthening/veering LLJ will serve as the catalysts for a late- evening convective episode. CAPE/Shear profiles do support severe weather in the vicinity of that warm front, which will likely be somewhere between the I-72 and I-80 corridors Tuesday night. At this time, the focus looks to be west of the Illinois River Valley, where lapse rates will be steepest. The multi-model consensus continues to favor Wednesday evening as the most active day of the period as the upper-level low pivots across the Missouri Valley and eventually drives a surface cold front across the region. Notable spread remains among global models with respect to timing and amplitude of this upper-level low, with the NBM favoring a EPS/CMCE solution over the GEFS. Regardless of FROPA timing, thermodynamics and kinematics are looking favorable for a classic severe weather outbreak with all modes of severe weather possible. We`ll continue to drill down on the details over the next couple of forecast cycles as global and ensemble guidance resolves the pattern a little better. Cooler, drier, and otherwise windy conditions will evolve over the region on Thursday in the wake of frontal passage. Temperatures will fall into the 50s/60s with overnight lows in the 30s/40s. Winds will begin to relax a bit by Friday as the powerhouse storm system makes its departure, but yet another frontal system threatens to bring additional unsettled weather Friday night into Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 710 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 The cumulus field from earlier this afternoon has shifted east and dissipated as a drier air mass continues to overspread the area from the west. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entirety of this TAF period. Surface winds will start out W-NW 5-10KT this evening, then become light southerly after 06z/1am. Southerly winds will then steadily increase Sunday morning with peak gusts exceeding 30 kts by late morning or afternoon. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Sunday for ILZ054>057-061>063- 066>068-071>073. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SYNOPSIS...MJA SHORT TERM...MJA LONG TERM...MJA AVIATION...Shimon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
656 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 For tonight, an upper level trough will approach the area. Surface low pressure will move east from western into central KS. A deformation zone with frontogenetical forcing will exist across the panhandle and northwest Sandhills. The NAM and GFS in good agreement with placement across the northwest tonight. The HRRR and RAP13 also agree on location, with slower timing for arrival mainly after 06Z. The surface low in KS will drawn in some colder air with a good surge of north winds 20 to 30 mph, mainly across southwest and central NE. Temperature profiles will be able to support some snow from the panhandle up through the northwest sandhills with around an inch of accumulation near the Pine Ridge and lesser amounts further south and east. Lows will range from the around 30 northwest Sandhills to the mid and upper 30s southeast. On Sunday, snow showers remain possible during the morning across the northwest Sandhills. The upper trough axis will move across north central NE, with a continued chance for showers in the afternoon and evening. Highs will only reach 45 far northwest, with the far southeast reach to around 60. A surge of dry air will move across the southeast panhandle into west central and southwest NE and combine with a gusty northwest wind up to 35 mph. This will bring critical fire weather conditions to fir zones south of Interstate 80. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 The main forecast concern in the long term will be the potential for strong winds Tuesday through Thursday. A deep upper trough will dig across the Pacific Northwest Monday and the Northern Plains and Central Plain Tuesday through Wednesday night. The ECMWF has maintained its further north track, yet is still further south than the GFS. There will remain chances for rain showers, and snow showers during the night and early morning. POPs however have been reduced from the previous forecast as the main system should track from WY across the Dakotas and MN. Strong northwest winds will be a concern. Increased winds to the NBM 90th percentile from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. Models have been showing a consistent support for strong winds. With the system expected to track further north, the winds do not looks as strong as they did from a few days ago. Still, think northwest winds could range 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph during this timeframe. Highs Tuesday may reach the 70s to around 80 as the cold front moves in, then mainly in the 40s Wednesday through Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 656 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 Light precipitation will move into northern Nebraska tonight impacting KVTN. Dry air across the south will keep precipitation limited to the north. Gusty northwest winds will continue overnight and through Sunday with northwest wind gusts up to 25 to 30 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 Critical fire weather conditions will continue across portions of western and north central Nebraska through Tuesday. On Sunday, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for zones 210 and 219 in southwest Nebraska. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will combine with afternoon humidity as low as 14 percent. On Monday, Fire weather conditions appear elevated on Monday with minimum RH in the upper teens to low 20s and southerly winds gusting up to 25 mph. On Tuesday, a storm system will approach the region. A cold front will move into western Nebraska with warm temperatures ahead of the front in the 70s to around 80. At this time, elevated fire conditions are possible across southwest and central Nebraska. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ210-219. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ208-209-219. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Kulik FIRE WEATHER...Roberg
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