Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/09/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
947 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues this evening and tonight with
occasional showers around. An upper level disturbance will
remain overhead through the weekend with cool temperatures and
more scattered showers. Some snow showers could mix in Saturday
morning, and again Saturday night into Sunday. An upper level
ridge brings much warmer weather early to midweek, but still a
few chances for rain showers at times.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM Update
Unsettled, showery weather will continue through the entire near
term period as a slow moving upper level low pin wheels in our
directions.
Scattered showers continue across the area this evening with
another weak wave rotating around the main upper low centered
over the Great Lakes. However, after this initial round this
evening, another more well-defined shortwave moves through
after midnight while a surface low also closes off over eastern
PA. This will bring in a more robust round of rain into the pre-
dawn hours especially east of I-81.
Still some uncertainty in the near term guidance on exactly how
this low will track and how much QPF it will spread across our
forecast area late tonight through midday Saturday. The GFS
remains the most aggressive with this system, producing a
strong frontogenetical band of precip along and east of I-81
late tonight right through midday Saturday. It also wraps in
some colder air aloft and into the boundary layer, so that wet
snow would occur over the higher elevations. Meanwhile the 12z
ECMWF is not as strong with this compact low, and indicates
lighter QPF. The HRRR, RAP and NAM nest are similar to the GFS
in developing a heavier band of precip, but keep it slightly
more to the east compared to the GFS and are coming in
comparatively lighter. Forecast QPF is a blend of WPC and
CONSALL. This gave between 0.33 and 0.50 inches of QPF along a
south to north stripe from near Scranton to Sidney- Oneonta and
Utica...with lesser amounts back to the west....less than a
tenth of an inch west of Elmira and Auburn. Mixed in some snow
over the higher elevations during the 4 AM to noon time period,
with slushy light coatings up to and inch or two possible above
1500 feet mainly east of I-81. Overnight lows are forecast to in
the low to mid-30s, except around 40 in the Wyoming Valley. For
areas where the precip falls as mostly rain, this additional
runoff will tend to keep river levels elevated, especially
across the Delaware and upper Susquehanna Basins. Be sure to
check the latest river forecasts and warnings if you area could
be impacted.
After this compact low exits off to the east midday or early
afternoon the upper level trough still remains in place. This will
allow additional showers to develop over the area...and with a bit
more instability than we are seeing today, isolated thunderstorms
will be possible. MLCAPE is forecast to be between 100-300 J/Kg
along with LIs around -2 or -3. With the low freezing levels (~2500-
3000 ft agl) a few of the heavier showers and or storms could
produce small hail Saturday afternoon. High temperatures only reach
the upper 40s to lower 50s, which is about 5 degrees below average.
The showers activity then tapers off in the evening into the first
half of Saturday night as we are in between shortwaves. The next
disturbance approaches later at night and brings a renewed chance
for light snow showers across the western and central portion of the
CWA. Much colder with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Little
to no snow accumulation expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM Update...
Weather will remain cool and unsettled through the day on
Sunday. Upper trough continues to slowly push eastward. A short
wave on the backside of the exiting upper trough drops south
into the region Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. This wave,
combined with some lake enhancement with the NW flow, will
produce some scattered snow showers across the region.
Temperatures will be near or just above freezing, so not
expecting much in the way of snow accumulation, but higher
elevations could see a dusting to a few tenths of an inch.
As temperatures warm, the snow showers will transition to rain
and linger into the afternoon. Rainfall amounts will only be a
trace to a few hundreths of an inch, so no further water issues
expected on Sunday.
Upper trough exits the region Sunday evening as ridging starts
building in from the west. A few snow showers or flurries could
continue into Sunday night, but no further accumulations are
expected. Skies clear out overnight, and a cool night is
expected, with lows Monday morning dipping into the mid to upper
20s in the coldest spots.
Temperatures will recover quickly on Monday as surface high
pressure slides east and warm southwesterly return flow
develops. Highs will climb into the mid to upper 50s with the
warmest spots hitting the low 60s Monday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
305 PM Update...
Next week is looking warm with above average temperatures, but
the mostly zonal flow pattern will make for active weather
through the week.
Models are showing multiple weak short waves pushing through the
area, with some notable timing differences between the guidance,
as is expected days 4 through 7. Due to the timing differences,
have stuck with the national blend of models through this
period. This solution is reasonable for now, with chance low
chance pops spread out through mid week, mostly due to the
timing errors in the models. It is likely that Tuesday and
Wednesday will brief periods of showers, with longer dry
stretches than the current forecast is showing, and as we get
closer, these timing details can be sorted out.
Rain chances will increase towards the end of the week, as
another strong upper low pushes northwest across the Great Lakes
and drives a cold front through the Eastern U.S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR prevails for the rest of the evening, and for much of the
night with just some stray showers moving through for the next
few hours. However, after midnight, another round of steady rain
moves in. Rain will reach AVP and BGM as early as 06 to 08Z,
and will continue to spread further north and west to ELM, ITH,
SYR, and RME into the pre dawn hours. Ceilings lower to MVFR or
fuel alternate at all terminals as the rain moves in, and
further drops to IFR are expected mainly at RME, BGM, and AVP
into the early morning hours. MVFR visibility is also expected
in steadier periods of rain, but IFR visibility restrictions
are possible at BGM given a chance for snow to mix in with rain
during the morning. Rain largely winds down into the afternoon,
though a few showers and even a rumble of thunder will still be
possible. Otherwise, expect ceilings to gradually improve to VFR
by the 18-21Z timeframe.
Southerly winds turn light and variable across much of the area
tonight, then winds shift to the west and increase to around 6
to 12kts into the daytime Saturday.
Outlook...
Saturday Night & Sunday...Scattered rain and snow showers around
with possible restrictions.
Monday...VFR Expected.
Monday Night...A chance for rain showers, and possible
restrictions.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.
Wednesday...A chance for rain showers and possible restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...HLC/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...HLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1034 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022
A widespread clear sky is observed on GOES-16 across the entire
region. An poleward moving low over the upper midwest has
contributed to the northerly breezy/windy conditions across the area
again This Afternoon, and even with neutral boundary temperature
advection - temperature has essentially reached the mid 50s in this
homogeneous airmass. With still full insolation through the
afternoon, the HRRR makes room for about another 5 degrees through 5
pm and widespread low 60s for afternoon highs across the southwest
half of the area (Dodge City - Elkhart).
Tonight, this cooler, drier airmass ought to radiate efficiently to
colder temperatures once again in the 30s south to upper 20s north.
At this point the assessment of susceptible vegetation does not
support he need for frost/freeze advisories/warnings.
For Saturday, a return to very warm highs is forecast, but by no
means are these going to be near record highs or near statistically
significant (80s in April). We can expect a far more mild overnight
Saturday toward early Sunday morning, with temperatures bottoming
out in the 40s west and and 50s southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022
A surface low will shift across the CO/KS line early Sunday morning,
dragging a surface cold front south that looks like will stall out
over the southern half of the area or into OK. A cooler regime in
the upper 60s/70s will be the result for most of the area, with
uncertainty lingering in how warm the southern counties may reach
(similar to Saturday) which could easily be in the low 80s once
again - for locations like Liberal to Medicine Lodge. If the cool
surge is a little stronger, the entire area along the Oklahoma line
may be relegated to the 70s Sunday afternoon.
There are large differences in the synoptic evolution between the
Canadian/ECMWF global models vs the GEFS ensemble sets for the
incoming system to impact the central Plains around late Tuesday
through Thursday. Regardless, the pattern supports a hot dry,
probably high fire risk southwest flow adiabatic heating setup on
Tuesday, before a cold front is driven through the region with a
strongly subsident westerly dry air intrusion. A very windy period
is likely in that timeframe with either setup. Most of the ensemble
QPF fields are either dry, or very light with trace to 0.01-0.05
amounts given the overall moisture starved environment and no real
moisture return ahead of it. Of greater concern for a more "high-
end" potential of high wind event is the ECMWF ensemble extreme
forecast index which highlights central and north central Kansas in
the very high values above 0.8-0.9 at 144-168 hours.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022
Excellent flying weather is expected through this TAF cycle, with
VFR/SKC and finally much less wind at all airports. Light and
variable winds currently will trend light south by 12z Sat. After
15z Sat, S/SW winds will increase, but modestly, with gusts of
22-25 kts at LBL/DDC/HYS. Less wind is expected at GCK. Winds will
trend light SEly around sunset/00z Sun.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022
Red flag warning continues area-wide through early this evening. On
Saturday, the very dry and rapidly warming surface layer will
quickly reach the relative humidity criterion for red flag, however
the winds will probably see a short period from late morning through
very early afternoon where intermittent 20 knot gusts are possible.
A perusal of the NAM 3km and FV3 models show a strong signal for
decreasing surface wind speeds to around 10 knots or less though the
late afternoon. Due to low confidence with respect to the wind gust
criterion , no fire weather watches are being considered for
Saturday right now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 30 82 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 29 82 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 39 85 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 30 86 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 28 76 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
P28 32 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1110 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022
This evening has seen light rain showers move through central
Indiana associated with impulse moving around the base of an upper
low over Lake Huron per H20 vapor imagery. Occasionally, graupel has
mixed in with the rain, and HRRR BUFKIT supports a mix with and
changeover to snow overnight. Radar trends and HRRR both support
likely PoPs over our northeastern counties with lesser Pops to the
southwest and PoPs ending by daybreak there. Precip has been very
light, so not looking for any big impact.
Also, will add an SPS for Saturday night for widespread frost over
the other counties north of the Frost Watch as with clear skies and
light winds, confidence is high for widespread frost.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022
...Freeze Watch Saturday Night...
Rest of Today and Tonight.
Scattered rain showers are expected to continue through the rest of
today as the broad upper level low pressure system that has slowly
spun over the Great Lakes Region continues the slow progression to
the north and east. As of early this afternoon, a broad area of
cloud cover was noted from Minnesota to the eastern portions of the
Great Plains and as far south as northern Georgia. Across central
Indiana, brief but widespread rain showers have moved across the
area and will continue through the rest of the day. Steep low level
lapse rates and a shallow freezing level have allowed for periods of
graupel in heavier showers and expect that to continue into the
evening, especially as surface temperatures begin to drop.
During the overnight hours, those surface temperatures will continue
to fall which will lead to a gradual transition from the
rain/graupel mix into snow. The best forcing will have exited the
area by late this evening, but a plume of lake enhanced moisture is
expected to move across the northeastern counties which will produce
periods of heavier snow showers that may allow for light
accumulations on grassy and elevated surfaces. Lows tonight will
drop near the freezing point, but expect that wind speeds will
remain elevated enough to prevent frost formation.
Saturday and Saturday Night.
By Saturday morning, the best forcing aloft will have moved well to
the east with the backend of the jet stream moving over the area.
This jet stream will continue to advect very cold temperatures aloft
which will allow for continued steep lapse rates in the low to mid
levels and weak areas of instability but the loss of the forcing
should limit any precipitation to far eastern Indiana where the lake
moisture will create localized areas of rain. Dry air will then
move in late in the day which will allow for the clouds to begin to
scatter out.
Temperatures during the overnight hours will then fall to near
freezing which will combine with the clearing skies and calm winds
to create ideal frost conditions across the forecast area with sub-
freezing temperatures likely in some locations. Have elected to
issue a Freeze Watch for our southern counties which have progressed
further into the growing season. Widespread frost is expected
across the full forecast area, but the southern areas have
progressed to the point where plants are more susceptible. The sub-
freezing conditions are more likely further east where confidence is
higher in the full clearing of clouds.
&&
.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022
A shift in the synoptic scale pattern will be underway Sunday as a
deep trough moves east, mean ridging moves in, and southwesterly
flow strengthens. This will result in a significant warming trend.
Model guidance has two precipitation events driven by two separate
mid-latitude systems.
The first system is a lead shortwave trough migrating from the
northern/central plains northeastward across Lake Superior into
Ontario by Monday. There is some variance among model guidance with
this first perturbation with regards to amplitude and timing, so
onset and departure time of precipitation will need to be resolved
after a few more model cycles. Initially during this large scale
transition, deeper moisture stream induced by this first wave will
emanate from the western Gulf. Model forecast soundings show some
instability from elevated parcels that would be more than what
accompanied previous systems and could support some thunder with
this first round. With the more progressive models, frontal passage
would temporarily end precipitation late Monday and Monday night.
But, confidence in this scenario is low since several models hold
the front back north and west of the area and continue at least low
probability of precipitation into Tuesday.
The second system is a broader trough that is lower in latitude and
may offer stronger forcing and a more robust
precipitation/convective event by mid-week. There is an even greater
variety of timing and amplitude in the model guidance for this
second system compared to the first. The overall pattern should
support more vigorous atmospheric pre-conditioning for convection,
and broader warm sector with more anomalous moisture. Gulf region
subsidence and recycled dry air initially should give way to a
deeper surge of moisture from Caribbean latitude preceding the next
system, even if the faster GFS/GEFS cluster happens. The lagging
ECMWF/EPS tends to phase more effectively with southern stream and
results in a highly amplified pattern, that is slower to progress
eastward and would delay the convective event until at least
Wednesday night into Thursday. There are some GEFS members that
support this, along with a CMC compromise. Thus, we will need to
keep the window for higher precipitation probabilities broad for
now, and narrow once the underdispersed clusters of medium range
guidance eventually overlap more.
In any case, it seems increasingly likely that the net result will
be higher chances for organized deep convection and severe storms
from the central part of the country (possibly multi-day). Residual
convective hazards may move into our area sometime during the mid-
week time frame, though likely in an upscale growth phase yielding a
QLCS and typical associated hazards, most likely.
The pattern into late week and just beyond the forecast period
remains progressive and amplified with fluctuating temperatures
albeit not a strong signal for impactful cold and episodic
precipitation events. A seasonal return of sufficient instability
for thunderstorms with these periods of precipitation can also be
expected.
&&
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1109 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022
IMPACTS:
-Light snow is possible, mainly at KIND and KLAF and ending after
08z-11z.
-MVFR and possibly brief IFR ceilings expected to improve to VFR
after 12z-19z.
-Winds from 270-300 degrees, mainly less than 15 knots with gusts to
20 knots possible after 18z. Winds will then drop to 6 knots or
lower after 00z Sunday.
DISCUSSION: Broad low pressure will gradually move east of the
terminals overnight and today. The light snow will end from
southwest to northeast by daybreak. Flying conditions will be MVFR
and possibly briefly worse but then improve back to VFR this
afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
INZ060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
Update...MK
Short Term...White
Long Term...BRB
Aviation...MK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
842 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022
.UPDATE...
A cool and windy night across the Mid-South at this hour. Latest
GOES Nighttime Microphysics RGB channel imagery reveals a
solid layer of stratus around 5000 feet. Even with winds and
cloud cover, temperatures have already fallen into the low to mid
40s. As clouds continue to thin out overnight, temperatures will
fall into the low to mid 30s areawide. The current frost and
freeze products look good.
Went ahead and increased cloud cover through midnight as models
are struggling with current conditions. Also made minor tweaks to
temperatures to account for quicker than forecasted cooling. The
rest of the forecast is in good shape with no other changes
needed at this time.
AC3
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022/
UPDATE...
See the 00z aviation discussion.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022/
DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough remains over the Mid-South this afternoon.
Light scattered showers are occurring just about anywhere in the
CWA. Have gotten a few reports of sleet occurring usually at the
onset of the precipitation. The upper trough will gradually shift
east tonight. The big question will be how quickly the clouds will
clear tonight and the winds die off. The HRRR is pretty progressive
on clearing the clouds out tonight. The RAP and NAM are not quite as
fast. Expect Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel to have
the best potential of a frost as clouds will clear there first.
Least confident for areas along the Tennessee River. However, will
go ahead an convert Clay, Greene, and Dunklin Counties to a
Freeze Warning and will issue a Frost Advisory for the rest of the
CWA.
High pressure will briefly build into the region Saturday. Winds
will not be as strong as today they begin shifting to the west.
However with low relative humidity values expected during the
afternoon, elevated fire danger could occur across portions of
the CWA. Highs will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Southerly winds will begin to occur on Sunday. A wind advisory may
be needed especially across the Mississippi Delta as the speeds
increase rapidly. The southerly winds will help temperatures climb
into the mid 70s to possibly near 80 degrees.
Warm air advection showers may begin during the overnight hours
Sunday Night. After Sunday Night, confidence in forecast dwindles
rapidly as there are a wide range in model solutions during the
Monday through Wednesday time frame regarding the next low
pressure system. The NAM and GFS show a frontal boundary sagging
south into the Mid-South. This boundary would serve as an
initiation point of convection that could train over the same area
until the front lifts back to the north. However, the ECMWF and
Canadian keep this boundary well to the north. Only chances for
warm air advection showers would occur until possibly Tuesday when
a shortwave ahead of the low pressure system moves into the area.
All models seem to agree that a cold front will move through the
CWA Wednesday Night. However, the GFS continues to be fastest with
timing. Strong to severe storms may occur ahead of the front
Wednesday Night. Although, there remains a lot of questions with
the exact evolution of the system. In addition, the Canadian and
ECMWF show the system occluding which could pinch off the
instability. Also, if there is morning convection that lingers
on Wednesday that could hinder the atmosphere from recovering in
time for the front. Stay tuned.
High pressure will build into the region behind the front.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/
The stratocu deck beneath the upper-level trough is expected to
dissipate this evening after sunset. Once clouds erode this
evening, mostly clear sky conditions are expected for the
remainder of the TAF. Gusty northwest winds will subside by 01z
becoming light from a general westerly direction, though they may
back more southwest toward sunrise. Northwest winds will resume by
15z Saturday with gusts up to 20 kts at times.
MJ
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Craighead-
Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
Francis.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Clay-Greene.
MO...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Pemiscot.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Dunklin.
MS...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Alcorn-Benton
MS-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee
MS-Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.
TN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Benton TN-
Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-
Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-
Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
748 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2022
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a large mid-level low
encompassing the entire Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley. Under
its influence, low clouds and occasional -sn persist over the fcst
area this aftn. Temps are mostly in the upper 20s to lwr 30s F
though a few mid 30s F are showing up in far s central Upper MI.
A shortwave currently over northern Ontario will drop s across the
area this evening. As a result, expect -sn coverage to increase some
into the evening hrs. KQMT radar and Environment Canada radar are
already showing increasing coverage of -sn across eastern Lake
Superior. Not expecting much in the way of snow accumulation thru
the evening, maybe an inch or 2 in the high terrain near Lake
Superior where nnw wind upsloping is maximized. Otherwise, expect
less than 1 inch, and for much of the area, really not much more
than a dusting. Late tonight and thru Sat, lingering -sn will end
from w to e with the last of the -sn ending n central Sat morning.
Much drier air will make progress into the area as well. The western
fcst area will see mostly sunny skies develop Sat morning, spreading
e into the central in the aftn. Clouds may hang on over the far
eastern fcst area until closer to sunset on Sat. With the increasing
sun, temps in the interior w to s central will rise to the lwr 40s
F, maybe mid 40s in a few spots. Otherwise, 30s will be the rule,
coolest e along Lake Superior where temps will not get out of the
lwr 30s under a gradient nw wind across the lake.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2022
GEFS 500mb height spaghetti plot show decent agreement among its
ensemble membership through at least late Tuesday. By then though,
GEFS members begin suggesting different amplitudes and timing of
the main trough/ridge combo progressing through CONUS. These same
differences are also present among the 12z deterministic suite,
with timing differences of a low exiting the Plains during the
middle of next week. Overall, this suggests good confidence in the
progression of the pattern through then.
Beginning Saturday night, surface high building in from the west with
upper level ridging, and the increasing dry airmass subsiding into
the region will support clearing skies from west to east. With this,
there is a good signal for some radiational cooling, particularly in
areas that do get some snowfall early in the day. Overall, lows
should dip into the 20s, but some teens should be expected in the
traditional colder spots of the interior west. By early Sunday
morning, some isentropic ascent should gradually support increasing
high cloud cover through the day Sunday ahead of a shortwave that`s
progged to move into northern MN/Arrowhead region Sunday night. As
WAA increases, expect cloud cover to gradually fill in and lower
through the day from west to east. This warmer airmass also looks to
support widespread upper 40s and 50 degree temperatures.
As the shortwave moves northwest of the region, there`s a chance for
some precip Sunday night and Monday as the low`s cold front swings
through. Some limiting factors for anything substantial appears to
be the dry airmass that`ll need to be overcome first and that the
better forcing looks to remain closer to the low north and west of
our region. With that said though, if any precip does fall, model
soundings suggest it should fall mostly as rain. As the timing of
this frontal passage matches with the min dinural cooling period,
wrap around moisture with CAA behind the front may lead to some
light wet snow in the west through Monday morning. There are some
notable intensity differences among the deterministic suite, which
translate into different pressure gradient forces over Lake Superior
Sunday night and Monday. The deeper GFS/NAM solutions suggests some
southeast gales to 40kts followed by southwest winds to near 30kts
could be possible. This contrasts with the weaker Canadian and
European solutions which struggle to reach 30kts except along the US-
Canadian border. Not only could this impact the maritime community
transiting the lake, but it could be some of the reasoning behind
the uncertainty in the system lifting into the region later in the
period.
Another high looks to build in after this low, which should bring an
end to any precip by Monday afternoon/evening. Attention then turns
to the developing trough in the west and the surface low that`s
progged to develop in the lee of the Rockies and lift northeast
toward the Great Lakes. Some of the timing differences between the
0z and 6z guidance appear to be in better focus in the 12z runs, but
there`s still some uncertainty, which re-enforces the uncertainty
presented in the GEFS spaghetti plot. At this point, there`s still
the potential for a moderate rain event sometime between Tuesday
night and Thursday, with potential dry slotting between
Wednesday night through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 748 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2022
There has been gradual improvement in flight conditions with KIWD at
VFR/MVFR levels and the remaining TAF sites generally around
IFR/MVFR. KSAW will be impacted the longest from a lingering low
pressure system with a return to VFR tomorrow evening. Elsewhere,
KIWD/KCMX are expected to improve to VFR late tonight/early Saturday
morning. Northwest wind gusts up to 24 kts will especially impede
visibilities at KCMX into tonight. Otherwise, expect sustained
speeds out of the northwest at 5 to 10 kts. KCMX will be the other
caveat this evening with some gusts up to 22 kts through Sat 03Z.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 332 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2022
Expecting northerly winds around 30kts across the central portions
of Lake Superior and 20-25kts elsewhere through at least midnight
tonight. After this, high pressure builds in, allowing winds to
gradually fall, dipping below 25kts across a majority of the lake by
Saturday afternoon. This high will exit east during the day Sunday
as a low lifts toward the Boundary Waters/Arrowhead region of
Minnesota. This low is expected to lift northeast from there Sunday
night and Monday. There`s some notable differences among the 12z
deterministic guidance suite in regards to the depth of the low,
which translates into different pressure gradient expectations. The
strong solutions suggest southeast gales to around 40 kts could be
possible by Monday morning across parts of the east and north,
whereas the weaker solutions suggest sub-25 kts winds. There`s also
some differences in the magnitude of the southwesterly and westerly
winds going into Monday night. At this point, forecast will run with
generally 20 to 30 kt winds ahead of and following the low, but this
could change as we move closer to the event.
After this, the next item of interest is the slow moving low that`s
expected to lift out of the Plains and enter the Upper Great Lakes
by the middle of next week and into the weekend. There`s some timing
differences and its trended westward in the latest guidance runs,
but southeasterly gales followed by a 2nd westerly or northwesterly
gale can`t be ruled out at this time.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
942 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022
.UPDATE...
As winds calm and temperatures fall, hires guidance seems to be
favoring too warm a solution for zones along and north of the I-20
corridor compered to minT values in this afternoon`s forecast
package. Elected not to introduce any such warming to our minT
values, but used a blend of the 01Z runs of RAP13 and HRRR to
capture the next 4 to 6 hours of our cooling trend, then
interpolated through to morning lows in the 12Z hour. Upper 30s
and lower 40s will prevail along and south of I-20, with northern
regions falling into the middle 30s. At this time, lows look to
remain just above freezing at the coolest sites, thus no freeze
products are anticipated to be issued, but if overnight trends
suggest this may change, a decision will then be made.
/26/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022/
AVIATION...
For the 09/00Z TAFs, VFR vis/cigs will prevail throughout the
course of this TAF period. Winds will be less of a concern moving
forward than in previous periods, calming to speeds of 3 to 5 kts
at variable direction, as winds generally shift to westerly and
southwesterly at some terminals. Southwest to southerly flow will
prevail tomorrow, with speeds of 10 to 15 kts and gusts of 15 to
20 kts, especially at our westernmost terminals.
/26/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022/
SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday Night/
The upper-level trough that has been behind the strong winds these
last few days is finally beginning to pull to the east. In the
troughs place, upper-level ridging will begin to shift in. Given a
wider pressure gradient, winds should decouple by late this
evening, which will allow for radiational cooling to take over
right as the sun sets. While there will be some light winds this
evening, they won`t be quiet strong enough to keep things mixed.
As such, tonight could get rather chilly across portions of the
Four-States region. Look for lows tonight of mid-30s north, to
low-40s south. There was some discussion as to whether or not to
issue any frost or freezing headlines for our northern zones
tonight, but at this time it appears as if areas should remain
just above freezing. This will likely be assessed again with the
evening update.
Given the ridge starting to move in, temperatures will begin to
warm up come this time tomorrow as flow turns back to the
southwest. Highs should range from the mid-70s north, to the
low-80s south. This southwest flow will also quickly rebound lows
to a more seasonal feel tomorrow night, with overnight lows
ranging in the low to mid-50s
/44/
LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/
Temperatures will be on the upswing as we enter the long-term period
on Sunday. Southerly winds will return as high pressure shifts east
of the region while an upper-level ridge will also be transitioning
across the mid-section of the country. Meanwhile, a sfc low will be
emerging across the Plains in Kansas and contribute to a stronger
pressure gradient farther south and east into much of our region. As
a result, expect southerly winds to become quite gusty throughout
the day on Sunday with high temperatures surging into the lower to
mid 80s by the afternoon. This warming trend will continue into next
week, albeit accompanied by increasing chances for thunderstorms and
severe weather.
By Sunday night, a cold front and dry line will shift slightly east
from west Texas/Oklahoma and may help initiate some convection that
could potentially reach our NW zones late Sunday night into Monday
morning. However, the boundary is expected to stall or even retreat
back north on Monday as SW flow aloft increases across our region.
As a result, cannot rule out some upper level energy emanating out
of out the SW flow that may serve to induce the necessary lift for
thunderstorms by late Monday afternoon into Monday night as strong
sfc heating should help to erode a strong capping inversion late in
the day. This is why SPC continues to highlight most of our western
zones in the Day 4 convective outlook through Monday night.
The more favorable timeframe for severe weather will likely hold off
until Tuesday into Wednesday as a massive trough out west begins to
pivot east from the Four-Corners region into the Rockies. This will
induce strong lift and upper forcing across our region by Tuesday
afternoon through much of Wednesday as the upper trough enters the
Plains, driving a cold front SE toward our region along with an
advancing dry line near the I-35 corridor by Tuesday afternoon. For
these reasons, expect an uptick in the severe weather potential as
we move into late Tuesday through Wednesday before the cold front
clears the region by Thursday. All modes of severe weather appear to
be in play during this early to mid week timeframe so continue to
closely monitor the forecast as we enter this peak of spring severe
weather season.
Well above normal temperatures will continue through mid week ahead
of the cold front with more seasonal readings expected on Thursday
behind the front. Despite fropa, cannot completely eliminate rain
chances through the remainder of the forecast period as the front
may eventually stall and begin a slow northward retreat on Friday.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 41 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 69 39 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 65 33 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 68 39 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 66 36 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 70 40 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 70 38 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 73 41 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
26/13