Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/07/22

National Weather Service Wakefield VA
804 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary meanders across Virginia tonight. Another area of low pressure and a cold front cross the area Thursday. A trough of low pressure crosses the area Friday. Cool high pressure builds into the area for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 755 PM EDT Wednesday... Latest MSAS shows the offshore low pulling away from the coast while a weak frontal bndry remains draped across the southern half of our area. The boundary will stay along the VA/NC border tonight while moisture from the approaching system to the west moves east of the mountains. Showers will spread sw- ne through the night with the highest PoPs (likely) across the Piedmont late. Not that excited about the thunder threat tonight given the frontal boundary`s position, but won`t rule out a rumble of thunder late across NC. Lows around 50 north, mid- upr 50s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... The front pushes east across the region Thurs morning with sct shwrs. Models then slow the front during the aftrn due to an a triple point low progged to lift ne mainly east of I-95 after 18z. SPC conts to highlight a slight risk across the se Thurs. While instability does increase, the key to how much svr will be the amt of heating that occurs before tstms dvlp. HRRR showing nmrs cells popping up first arnd the I95 corridor south of PTB arnd 17Z then spreading ene while incrg in coverage btwn 18Z-00Z Fri. This is the time frame of concern for svr potential honing in on sern VA/nern NC btwn 20Z-00Z where the latest parameters suggest psbl supercell dvlpmnt. Concern right now is damaging winds and large hail, but a tornado can not be ruled out across the se. Anthr wide range of temps due to a CAA wedge and frontal bndry movements. Highs arnd 60 ivof LKU to the mid-upr 70s across the se. The triple point low pushes ne of the area Thurs eve. The trailing cold front and assctd convection pushes offshore Thurs eve as well. Upr level energy lingers resulting in a few shwrs across the area thru the nite. Lows low-mid 40s west, mid 40s-lwr 50s east. An upr lvl trof swings across the rgn Fri/Fri eve. Sct shwrs are psbl during pk heating/eve hrs as cold pool aloft moves east. Otw, pt sunny. Highs in the 60s. Colder Fri nite with lows upr 30s nw to mid 40s se. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 125 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure over the south Sun moves across the Mid Atlntc region Mon then becomes centered offshore Tue/Wed. Dry through this period along with a warming trend. Highs Sun 55-60. Chilly Sun nite as the ridge axis moves overhead. Lows mid-upr 30s away from the water, 40-45 near the water. Highs Mon 65-70 away from the water, low-mid 60s near the water. Lows Mon nite in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Tue/Wed mid-upr 70s away from the water, upr 60s-lwr 70s near the water. Lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 755 PM EDT Wednesday... A frontal boundary is draped across the area this evening. IFR CIGs at SBY spread to the other terminals overnight as the front drops to the south and onshore flow assists along the coast. Expect mainly IFR Thursday morning-afternoon as showers overspread the region from west-east. E winds are 5-10kt overnight, shifting the SW Thursday morning. An area of low pressure and a cold front cross the region late Thursday afternoon. Expect showers and a possibility for thunder. CIGs lift from west-east Thursday night as the low pressure system moves offshore. && .MARINE... As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday... Winds are generally N 10 to 15 kt this afternoon behind a departing low as a backdoor cold front pushes SW. Winds become NE this evening, becoming E 15 to 20 kt tonight ahead of the next low. As such, have issued SCAs for the Ches Bay and Lower James from 10 PM this evening through 7 AM. A sfc low develops along a cold front over W NC tonight and moves NE across VA tomorrow, eventually crossing N of the local waters tomorrow evening. Winds become SE 15 kt tomorrow morning, diminishing to 10-15 kt by the afternoon. Showers and storms will be possible primarily tomorrow afternoon into the early evening ahead of/along the cold front with locally strong to severe storms possible over the waters. Winds become NW 10 to 15 kt behind the front tomorrow evening/night but are expected to remain sub-SCA at this time due to weak CAA. Winds are expected to remain sub-SCA through Sat. Waves of 1-2 ft build to 2-3 ft this evening. Waves subside to around 2 ft tomorrow afternoon. Seas of 5-7 ft linger through tomorrow afternoon before subsiding to 4-6 ft, eventually subsiding below 5 ft Fri. Have therefore extended SCAs here until 6 AM Fri. Seas of 3-4 ft across the southern coastal waters may eventually build to 4-5 ft Thurs evening, but confidence is too low to issue SCAs at this time. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...AM/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AM MARINE...RMM
National Weather Service Albany NY
1034 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds will thicken and lower tonight with some rain moving in during the early morning hours, as a large, slow moving storm system moves towards the area. Periods of rain are anticipated through the day on Thursday, with some locally moderate bursts of rain and a rumble of thunder possible for the afternoon and evening hours. Rain will finally taper off Thursday night. Although it will be seasonable, a few lingering showers and plenty of clouds will continue for Friday. Unsettled and cool weather is expected over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 1034 PM EDT...Mid and upper level heights continue to fall ahead of the mid and upper level trough approaching from the northern Plains, Great Lakes Region and Midwest. Low clouds are increasing south and east of the Capital Region, as another low pressure system approaches the Mid Atlantic Region and an occluded front approaches from the west/southwest associated with a sprawling low pressure system near the western Great Lakes Region. Clouds will thicken and lower from the south and west overnight, and we tried to trim back slightly the timing for some light rain to overspread the region based on the latest CAMs such as the 3-km HRRR and NAM. The light rain may reach locations west of the Hudson River Valley between 1-3 am and then spread eastward towards the Hudson River Valley and the NY-western New England border between 3-6 am towards the NY border and western New England. The stronger synoptic forcing initially will be from the Hudson River Valley corridor westward. Lows will stay above most of the entire area. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s for valley areas, with mid and upper 30s across the higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Occluded front will be slowly making its way towards the area on Thursday. The frontal boundary will be located across western New York to start the day, but as a wave of low pressure develops along the front`s triple point, the boundary will only make slow progress towards the area through the day. With a strong s-se flow at the low to mid levels, plenty of moisture will be surging northward off the western Atlantic Ocean. PWATS reach 1-2 STD above normal (according to the 12z GEFS) with values as high as 1.25 inches. Rainfall will become steadier and heavier through the day, with the heaviest rates in the late afternoon and evening hours, just ahead of the occluded boundary. Initially, bands of rain will be somewhat spotty and light for the morning hours, but it will pick up in both coverage and intensity as the day goes on. The strong s-se winds (around 50 kts at 925 and 850 hpa), will allow for some enhancement across the Catskills and southern Adirondacks. Some elevated instability may allow for a few rumbles of thunder as well, mainly for southern parts of the area, just ahead of the approaching boundary. See the Hydro discussion below for how we expect this rainfall to impact area rivers/streams. In addition, the strong low levels winds may allow for some gusty winds in typical downslope locations across western New England and the Taconics, as the wind funnels through the terrain. These gusts may exceed 40 mph at times for late in the day Thursday, especially between any breaks in the steadier rainfall. With the expected clouds and precip, temps will be held into the 40s through the day. Some valley areas could top out in the low 50s by late in the day. The steadiest rainfall will be ending on Thursday night from southwest to northeast, as the occluded boundary finally moves through the area and the low pressure area lifts into New England. Behind the front, temps will fall into the mid 30s to mid 40s across the area, although it will probably stay fairly cloudy. On Friday, our area will be in the lull behind the departing storm but ahead of the approaching large closed off low located across the Great Lakes. As a result, it will still be somewhat seasonable, with highs reaching into the 50s for most of the area. There will probably be some breaks of sun by afternoon. While most of the day looks to be dry, some scattered showers may approach by late in the day and into Friday night, as the upper level low spins eastward. Lows will fall into the 30s for Friday night, with a few passing showers possible. High terrain areas could see some wet snow mix in, as temps aloft starts to cool off thanks to approaching upper level cold pool. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The extended forecast and weekend opens cool and unsettled with an upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. However, a warming trend with a mid and upper level ridge building in early next week will allow for temps to trend back above normal heading into the mid week with drier conditions. Sat-Sat Night...The medium range guidance and ensembles continue to have a broad upper level trough over eastern Canada and the eastern CONUS with multiple short-waves pivoting through it and across NY and New England. One short-wave Saturday morning will bring rain and snow showers and cool conditions. We have kept PoPs in the high chance and likely range. The better chance of some light wet snow accums will be over the mountains such as the southern Adirondacks, eastern Catskills, and southern Greens in the morning. H850 temps will be running a little colder than normal based on the latest NAEFS, and the 500 hPa temps will be -1 to -2 standard deviations below normal. A rumble of thunder could be possible if any heating occurs with the cold pool aloft. Highs will be in the lower 50s in the valleys and NW CT and 40s over the rest of the region with some upper 30s over the higher terrain. The showers will diminish at night with perhaps a few snow showers/flurries over the western Mohawk Valley and the southern Adirondacks. It will be cool under the upper low with lows in the 30s with some upper 20s to lower 30s over the mtns. Sun-Sun Night... A couple more weak impulses rotate around the upper low, as it moves across upstate NY and New England. The cyclonic vorticity advection coupled with the steep lapse rates due to the cold pool aloft will allow for some isolated to scattered showers. A few snow showers are possible over the higher terrain. The showers will diminish with the loss of the diurnal heating, as the trough axis moves east. Heights will begin to rise with ridging building in from the west towards daybreak. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s in the valley areas, and upper 30s to mid 40s over the higher terrain. Lows will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Mon-Tue...High pressure builds in from the south. Mid and upper level heights rise, as a moderating trend in temps begin. Highs trend toward normal readings with mid 40s to lower 50s over the mtns, and mid and upper 50s in the valleys. A warm front lifts north of the region Monday night into early Tuesday. Some clouds increase and a few showers may graze the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s. In the warm advection pattern, expect temps to surge above normal on Tue. Highs will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain, and mid 60s to lower 70s in the valleys. Tue Night into Wed...Ridging off the Mid Atlantic Coast will remain in control with mainly warm and fair weather. An isolated shower in the forecast area, and may be possible closer to a front boundary over central and eastern Great Lakes Region, but H850 temps will be +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal with temps rising close to 10 degrees above normal heading into the mid week. We went above the NBM heading into WED with widespread upper 60s to lower 70s in the valley areas, and upper 50s to mid 60s over the hills and mtns. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...Low level easterly flow off the Atlantic resulting in widespread stratus clouds this evening. Cig heights are lower in MVFR range at KPOU/KPSF, but VFR levels at KALB/KGFL where some downsloping is occurring. With continued E/SE flow regime, the stratus clouds will remain in place through tonight. Cig heights should start to gradually lower at KALB/KGFL overnight, but MVFR not expected until early Thursday morning. A frontal system slowly approaching from the west will bring increasing chances for rain early Tuesday morning. Rain will be fairly widespread much of Thursday with a few breaks from time to time. Steadier and locally/briefly heavy rainfall will be possible starting late Thursday afternoon as a wave of low pressure approaches from the mid Atlantic region. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be possible late Thursday, with the greater coverage near KPOU where PROB30 for TS has been mentioned starting at 21Z. Conditions may vary between MVFR and IFR depending on when steady rain is falling vs. intermittent lighter rain. A southeast low level jet will move across parts of the area late Thursday afternoon, with low level wind shear occurring due to winds at 2000 ft AGL expected to be around 45-50 kt at KPOU starting around 21Z Thursday. LLWS will expand eastward to KPSF, but this is not expected until 00Z Friday. Surface winds will be east-southeast tonight less than 10 kt. Winds on Thursday will be southeast increasing to around 9-13 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt, especially at KALB/KPOU/KPSF. Outlook... Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A frontal system will bring a widespread soaking rainfall to the region from late tonight through the day on Thursday, with rainfall ending on Thursday night. Some additional showers are expected Friday into the weekend. RH values will remain above 70 percent tomorrow, and will be above 50 percent for both Friday and Saturday. Southeast winds will be gusty for Thursday, especially across the higher elevations, with some gusts over 30 mph possible. Lighter winds are expected Friday into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... A slow moving frontal boundary will bring periods of rain to the region from late tonight through Thursday. Rainfall will be winding down on Thursday night. The heaviest rainfall will likely be late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, when rainfall rates may exceed 0.25 inch per hour. Rainfall amounts will be around an inch for valley areas, although high terrain areas may see two to three inches (especially the Catskill and southern Adirondacks). This rainfall will allow for ponding of water on roadways, as well as in urban, low lying and poor drainage areas. Some small streams may reach bankfull across the high terrain. There is a marginal risk for flash flooding. While rises are expected on larger rivers, the main stem rivers should not reach flood stage at this time. Although some showers are expected Friday into the weekend, any rainfall will be lighter and rivers and streams will be receding. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
957 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Regional radar shows light snow beginning to enter east-central North Dakota, with Rolla reporting -SN within the last hour. Upstream observations are inconsistent on visibility as some sites report 1 1/4 mile and others up to 4 miles and light snow in eastern North Dakota. The lack of lower level frontogenesis to provide a signal for a predictable heavier snowfall band (with ascent focused aloft with strengthening Q-Vector convergence) makes the near-term snowfall forecast a challenge still, but a general area from Wells/Foster on south for some accumulating snow still looks reasonable, as well as the Turtle Mountains. No changes needed to the going forecast. UPDATE Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Deep occluded upper level low continues to impact the Northern Plains, directing northerly flow vort lobes through the Dakotas. This active flow aloft will maintain a strong pressure gradient over the region tonight through Thursday. Additionally, the cold air aloft associated with the vort max has created enough instability for some diurnal showers this afternoon. Weak convective activity should diminish this evening, then wrap- around snow should push west into the James River Valley and Turtle Mountain areas. This snow may even approach the Highway 83 corridor tonight and Thursday morning. However RAP guidance keeps the best omega within the DGZ (and snow development potential) further east. Snow and winds may cause some visibility issues in the JRV, with even light snow combined with 25-30 kt winds can drop visibility down to around 1 mile. Will continue to message blowing snow potential in the High Wind Warning for now with wind being the primary issue, but visibility and snowfall trends will need to be monitored for further action. UPDATE Issued at 437 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Quick update to PoPs for diurnal showers that have developed over central North Dakota this afternoon. Though temperatures are well above freezing, wet bulb temperatures are low enough over the north central to allow for some snow mixed into rain showers. Central North Dakota diurnal activity should diminish with loss of insolation this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Very strong winds continue through Thursday as deep low pressure remains centered over east central MN/northwest WI resulting in a tight pressure gradient over most of the area. A few obs have already reached high wind criteria (58 mph or greater) and many more have gusted from 45 to 55 mph. While low pressure will very slowly migrate eastward over the period, its grasp will be maintained over the forecast area through Thursday before gradually being released from west to east Thursday night. Due to this, will maintain the High Wind Warning through Thursday from the James River Valley through portions of south central North Dakota. High winds will be a little more borderline for counties in the south central part of the state, but feel the risk/confidence for a few gusts is high enough to maintain the warning. Otherwise, the rest of central ND through southwestern ND remains in a Wind Advisory through the same period. Wrap-around precipitation will gradually work westward into the eastern forecast area tonight, especially over the JRV. Precipitation may begin this evening as light rain or a mix of rain and snow. However, it will rapidly become all snow through the night tonight. 1 to 2 inches of snow is possible in the JRV, as well as the Turtle Mountains. Otherwise, any accumulations will be light. Presently, diurnal cu has developed across pretty much all of the forecast area where low level stratus does not remain. As a result, returns have begun to show up on radar and some CAMs suggest they will persist through the day. Doubting much, if anything, will reach the ground. Therefore, put a chance of sprinkles across the area through most of the day to account for this. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 To start the period, any remaining influence of this week`s system (breezy winds in the JRV) finally exits the area as surface high pressure moves into and through North Dakota. Aloft, a ridge transits through the Plains states Friday afternoon through Saturday. The main impact of this will be a brief warm-up west Friday, and across the entire forecast area Saturday. Even with the warm-up, highs are expected to remain mostly in the 50s at this time, which is seasonable for this time of the year. Models then suggest a trough off Canadian low pressure will bowl down the ridge and produce the areas next best chance of light precipitation Sunday through Sunday night. What happens beyond that becomes a lot murkier. Ensemble clusters are pretty consistent in the development of a west CONUS trough next week. However, they remain divided in just how amplified the trough becomes. A little over half the ensemble members suggest a well amplified trough that would provide southwesterly flow to the area and the potential for an impactful storm system. The other half suggest a less amplified trough and almost more zonal flow over the forecast area, which would be less favorable for heavier precipitation. The one thing that seems highly likely at this point in time regardless, is below average temperatures through at least the first half of next week, and probably through the entire workweek as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Strong winds will continue tonight through Thursday across all terminals. Gusts in excess of 50 kts will continue to be possible at KJMS, though more likely during the daytime hours. MVFR stratus will spread from east to west, impacting KJMS by 06Z and KMOT-KBIS by 09Z, with periods of IFR cigs at KJMS. Snow will be possible tonight and Thursday morning, most likely at KJMS. The strong winds and falling snow may reduce visibility at KJMS to around 1 mile at times, until chances for snow are reduced by 18Z. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Thursday for NDZ003>005- 011>013-019>022-033-034-040>044. High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Thursday for NDZ023- 025-035>037-045>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...AE SHORT TERM...Telken LONG TERM...Telken AVIATION...AE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
524 PM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022 UPDATE...The High Wind Warnings were allowed to expire across the area. Winds have continued their downward trend leading up to the expiration time. While some periodic gusts between 45-50 mph will still be possible over the next few hours, winds will rapidly diminish soon after sunset. Decided to expand the new High Wind Watch for the southern NE panhandle to account for a ramp up in the winds expected tomorrow morning and continuing through much of the afternoon. This area may need to be upgraded to a High Wind Warning later this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 256 PM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Strong winds have continued along and east of the Laramie Range into the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon. Recent wind gusts near Scottsbluff are over 60 mph with blowing dust being reported by local storm spotters with localized reductions to visibility. These plumes of dust were visible on GOES 16/17 satellite imagery near Sidney this morning, but scattered to broken cloud cover has developed overhead this afternoon. Latest RAP analysis shows 60 kt flow currently over the Nebraska Panhandle with steep low-level lapse rates which looks to remain in place into late this afternoon. High Wind Warnings are currently in effect until 6 PM MDT which looks good timing wise as winds should decrease headed into this evening. Enhanced flow aloft will return early Thursday morning as the deep upper level low continues to spin over the Great Lakes region. This could lead to another brief period of high winds over the Nebraska Panhandle through early Thursday afternoon. Previous shift had issued High Wind Watches for portions of the panhandle for Thursday. Upgrades will likely be needed, especially for eastern counties of the CWA. Latest GFS forecast seems to have progressed this enhanced flow eastward earlier Thursday afternoon which could lead to high wind potential wrapping up by mid- afternoon. Hi-Res guidance is also in agreement with this notion. Regardless, northwest winds gusting 50 to 60 mph are likely. Additionally, with similar conditions, patchy blowing dust with localized reductions in visibility With calming winds and clearing skies, Thursday night temperatures look to remain below normal for early April in the low 20s before the warm up begins late this week into this weekend. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 256 PM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Not much change in the first portion of the long term forecast period in today`s model cycles. The long-duration high wind period will finally wind down on Friday as a the broad upper-level trough lumbers eastward through the northern CONUS. Expect temperatures to rebound as well with highs around 10 degrees above average on Friday, and 15 to 20 degrees above average on Saturday. The influence of the next major trough to move through the Rockies/High Plains will begin to be felt on Saturday afternoon into early Sunday as fast mid and upper-level flow spreads eastward. Expect winds to pick up in the higher terrain, with gusts in the 35-45 mph range likely for the typical wind-prone areas. Attention turns to the precipitation forecast from Sunday onward through the end of the long-term period. Several waves of energy will pivot around a broad trough in the northern intermountain west, with the final one potentially bringing a round of moderate to heavy early-spring snow to southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska on Wednesday. The first wave looks to arrive on Sunday morning as a weak area of lift ejects eastward into the high plains. Ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to be in good agreement with this feature. Expect generally light precipitation with this event, especially in areas from I-25 eastward as dry air near the surface looks to greatly hinder precipitation totals. Guidance for the Sierra Madres and Snowy range have generally centered in on a 2-4 inch snow event here. The next wave of energy (and quite a bit more moisture) will pivot through on Monday night into Tuesday. This portion of the event appears to be more frontogenetically driven. The GFS and its ensemble suite have shown a bit of an uptick with totals in this portion of the event, compared with the ECMWF which keeps most of this moisture/forcing back west with the main low. PoP chances have been increased during this timeframe in this forecast cycle. Additionally, the overnight and morning timeframe of heaviest precipitation shown by the GFS here would favor better accumulation chances, given the early April sun angle. Finally, the main surface low pressure system will finally eject eastward on Tuesday night through Wednesday. This element of the forecast has been the most difficult to pin down details at this range. The ECMWF and GFS have traded places a few times in the past few model cycles, each of which occasionally depicting a major early- spring snow storm for eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska with upwards of a foot of snow. While these totals are certainly a reasonable worst-case solution, the range of outcomes shown by both EPS and GEFS ensemble guidance is still quite broad with the lower 25th percentile of solutions showing 3 inches or less in places such as Cheyenne, Scottsbluff and Sidney. The overall message remains consistent: There is potential for a high-impact spring snowstorm early next week and much cooler than average temperatures are likely. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday evening) Issued at 524 PM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022 No changes made to previous aviation discuss for the 00Z TAF package. Extremely windy conditions remain the primary concern at all terminal locations this afternoon. This will be especially true in western Nebraska where gusts over 50 knots are possible. Blowing dust may reduce vis to the 3-5 mile range especially at SNY and AIA. Expect scattered lower-level clouds in western Nebraska but CIG levels will remain MVFR or greater through the evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Northwest winds expected to become strong again shortly after sunrise today. Especially east of the Laramie Range where we still have High Wind Warnings in effect through this afternoon. Cold temperatures today will keep afternoon humidity well above critical levels. Weak cold front moves through the northern Nebraska Panhandle into Niobrara County this afternoon...bringing small chances for light snow to these areas. Strong northwest winds expected behind this front Thursday...especially the central and southern Nebraska Panhandle. Warming temperatures Friday into this weekend as high pressure builds back into the area. Could see near critical humidity with these warmer temperatures Friday and Saturday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ101-102- 106>108-116>119. NE...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for NEZ002-003- 019>021-054-055-095-096. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for NEZ003-019>021-054-055-096. && $$ UPDATE...AW SHORT TERM...MB LONG TERM...MAC AVIATION...MAC FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
936 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 .Forecast Update... Issued at 936 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Surface analysis this evening shows deep low pressure in place over NRN WI and the UP of Michigan. Broad cyclonic flow was flowing around this low and across Indiana. Water Vapor shows a deep upper low in place over northern WI...providing broad cyclonic flow across the upper Midwest...Great Plains and into the Ohio Valley. GOES16 shows stratocu clouds upstream of Central Indiana over IL and WI...continuing to make progress southeast toward Central Indiana. Overall ongoing forecast remains in good shape. Diurnal showers appear to have come to an end across the region as heating and minor instability has been lost. Given the satellite trends...increased sky grids toward more of a mostly cloudy type forecast during the overnight. Given this but the cool NW flow kept overnight lows unchanged from the previous forecast as mixing and clouds cover should prevent max cooling. && .Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 ...Much cooler temperatures by the end of the week... ...Snow possibly mixing in Thursday night into Friday... Today into Tonight We`ll start off the short term with a cold front sweeping across Indiana. Rain has been widespread across the area today, but will gradually end from west to east as the front progresses eastward. Clearing has been noted on satellite across the western counties, which will also spread eastward. Temperatures should rebound in the post-frontal environment as the airmass is dry and relatively well- mixed. Some wind gusts over 20kt could be mixed downward as well, especially this afternoon before the atmosphere stabilizes overnight. The aforementioned post-frontal wedge of dry air is fairly narrow, and a cu field developing across western Illinois reveals the presence of cold and moist air associated with an upper-level low currently located in the upper midwest. Hi-res models are hinting at a secondary cold front as the colder air mass works into the region this evening. In fact, some are even showing a narrow line of showers developing and spreading into some of our northern counties. Thursday into Friday Once that secondary cold front passes through, it`s all downhill as winter tries to make a brief comeback. The stacked upper-level low is expected to slowly drop southward towards Chicago. Cold air advection intensifies and 850 temps should be around -5C by Thursday morning. Pockets of upper-level energy rotating around the upper low, combined with steepening lapse rates, will promote the generation of scattered showers Thursday afternoon. Some wind gusts over 20 kts could return as the atmosphere once again becomes well- mixed. As the core of the upper low drifts southward, continued CAA may allow precip type to become an issue. Beyond midnight Friday, critical thicknesses support snow across much of the region. && .Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 - Cold and wet weather early weekend - Dry with moderating temperatures Saturday - Much warmer and unsettled weather next Friday through Sunday... Upper low, currently seen on H20 vapor vapor imagery spinning near the western shores of Lake Superior, will wobble to southwestern lower Michigan by 12z Friday and to southern Ontario by 12z Saturday Lobes of vorticity will rotate around this feature and across central Indiana through Saturday. This forcing in addition to deep moisture up to around 300 millibars per BUFKIT soundings will bring widespread showery weather to the area Friday. Look for Lesser chances Friday night the precip to end from west to east into Saturday. BUFKIT supports a mix of rain and snow with better chances for snow during the morning and nighttime hours and better chances of rain in the afternoon. Models suggest steep low level lapse rates will result in non-zero CAPE Friday (100 J/KG or less). This along 500 millibar temperatures to 32 degree degrees below zero, the freezing level below 1500 feet and saturation and lift in the dendritic growth zone could result in some graupel mixing in with the snow and rain. Despite all this, above freezing surfaces should keep any snow accumulation relegated to elevated surfaces. As the upper low moves away across southern Ontario, the mix will be ending from west to east on Saturday. Upper ridging will follow and bring some sunshine to the area Sunday. That and southerly low level winds around a southeastern states high will allow for temperatures to moderate much closer to normal. While, highs Friday and Saturday will struggle to reach the lower and middle 40s with the clouds hanging around. Sunday will see temperatures return to the middle 50s and lower 60s. Will have to keep an eye out for temperatures Saturday night as clearing skies and light winds could result in frost which will be a concern for frost sensitive plants and vegetation. Sunday night through Wednesday... The southeastern surface high will gradually move east to Bermuda by Wednesday as a deepening low pressure system moves into the central Plains and upper Missouri Valley. This will ensure a prolonged period of Gulf inflow which will bring warmer temperatures and deep moisture to central Indiana for early and middle parts of next week. Meanwhile, upper southwest flow will eject upper impulses northeast across the area. Finally, the increase in temperatures and moisture will create an unstable atmosphere by next Tuesday or Wednesday. The result will be a period of unsettled weather with the best chances for convection Tuesday and Wednesday as a related cold front gets closer. Gulf inflow supports above average temperatures, despite the increasing convection, with afternoon highs in the 70s. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 714 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 IMPACTS: - Mainly VFR Cigs this evening but MVFR conditions will be expected on Thursday. - Gusts of 20-25 knts along with scattered rain showers will be expected on Thursday afternoon. DISCUSSION: At issuance...brief clearing was found across the TAF sites as a dry slot in the wake of a cold front was pushing across Central Indiana. This will be short lived as broader cyclonic flow over WI and IL will push into Central Indiana this evening. GOES16 shows advancing stratocu associated with this flow over IL...advancing toward Central Indiana. These clouds are expected to arrive this evening and provide VFR CIGs through the evening and into the overnight period. The broad upper low in place over WI and IL is expected to keep cyclonic flow and cold air aloft in place over Indiana on Thursday. Forecast soundings suggest attainable convective temperatures along with saturated steep lapse rates in the late morning and afternoon. Furthermore...the HRRR suggests sct showers development tomorrow as these elements come together. Thus have used VCSH mention to account for showers along with MVFR Cigs. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...Puma Short Term...Eckhoff Long Term...MK Aviation...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
754 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 434 PM EDT WED APR 6 2022 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a well-defined mid-level low centered in nw WI. Warm conveyor associated with this feature brought a band of light/mdt rain across the area with intensity increasing as it shifted e and ne. This rain did switch over to snow or snow/rain mix at times over the high terrain of the Keweenaw this morning. Webcam at Calumet showed some slushy snow accumulation on the road. The steady pcpn has shifted e and ne and is now over eastern Upper MI arcing nw to n central Lake Superior as mid-level dry slot has rotated across much of the fcst area. However, with closer approach of the mid-level low, a more showery pcpn regime is now spreading/developing ne into the sw half of Upper MI. Fcst thru Thu will revolve around pcpn details, coverage/type, as center of aforementioned mid-level low drifts into western Upper MI tonight and then se into WI on Thu. Expect ocnl pcpn thru the period. Pcpn will be most persistent with greatest coverage across the western fcst area in the vcnty and just w of sfc troffing that will extend nne from the sfc low drifting into far western Upper MI tonight and then into northern WI on Thu. Wetbulb zero heights/fcst soundings suggest -ra mixing with -sn across the nw half tonight with likely a change to all snow high terrain of the w. Will then fight limited daytime heating on Thu, but expect pcpn to remain rain/snow or snow w with some advancement of snow into the central as column does cool gradually in the aftn. Wind direction and resulting upslope will be the most important driver of pcpn intensity/persistence, and there is uncertainty in that detail. The upsloping aspect impacts far western portions of Gogebic/Ontonagon counties most directly. NAM/FV3 are the more aggressive models in backing winds sufficiently for upsloping to really come into play in that area, but don`t have much confidence in how the wind fields will evolve. If winds back sufficiently, there could be several inches of sloppy/wet snow accumulation in the high terrain closest to Lake Superior where upsloping would be maximized. For this fcst, opted for a conservative approach with snow accumulations of an inch or 2 tonight. There are also indications of a steadier band of pcpn lifting across the Keweenaw tonight, and should that end up as mostly or all snow, a few inches of wet snow could accumulate there. Once again, kept fcst conservative with accumulations there around an inch. Same as tonight, greatest snow accumulations on Thu will be in the immediate high terrain just inland from Lake Superior in western Gogebic/Ontonagon counties. Up to 3 inches will be possible there as winds will take on a more direct upslope direction as the day progresses. Otherwise, expect snow accumulations mostly an inch or less across the w. Low temperatures tonight will only fall into the low/mid 30s F. Highs on Thu will range from the low/mid 30s w to the lower 40s F s central and e. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 342 PM EDT WED APR 6 2022 Broad upper level troughing looks to persist across the region through at least Saturday, at which point upstream mid-upper level ridging builds from west to east through the Upper Great Lakes. This should translate into a fairly active period of mostly snow/rain for our region until the ridge helps to scour out activity by Saturday afternoon. As the ridge makes its way through the region Sunday, expect a mostly dry day. Looks like another system could lift northeast into the region Monday/Tuesday, giving us another shot for rain/snow. Starting off Thursday night, a nearly stacked low just on the other side of the WI/MI stateline will continue to support rain and snow showers over the region. As we enter into night and dinural cooling takes over, a period of lake enhanced snow will be possible while the low meanders southeast Thursday night and early Friday when it begins to boomerang toward the northeast. Main areas of accumulation look primarily centered in the upslope regions near Lake Superior and could amount to 2 to 7 inches of additional snow accumulation, especially north and northeast of Ironwood and in the Michigamme Highlands. This wet snow could result in some sloppy and slushy roadways. As CAA continues and the low starts tracking northeast and exiting through the day Friday, snow showers will transition over to lake effect. Hard to say how much snow will be possible during this period, but an additional 2-4 inches seems plausible through early Saturday given the saturated profiles, inversion heights near 4k ft and decent DGZ residence time. As the incoming ridge builds in Saturday, expect lake effect snow to end from west to east. The ridge will only stick around briefly and by Saturday night, expecting southerly WAA to move into the region. After this, a cold front swinging through Sunday night, with another low lifting into the Lower Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday could result in another round of snow/rain for the region. There`s some uncertainty with how next week will evolve. At this point, it looks like a subtropical jet moving into the Gulf states with southwesterly flow aloft over the Plains sets up. Overall it looks like a couple of moist systems could lift northeast through the middle-Mississippi River Valley and potentially our region. Guidance is keen on establishing deep troughing west of the Rockies by the middle of next week, which will set the stage for another Colorado low somewhere in the Great Lakes Wed-Fri. Temps through the period look to oscillate as you`d expect between systems. Highs Friday and Saturday are expected to be largely in the 30s, with some high 20s possible in the interior west Friday and 40s south Saturday. Overnight lows look to dip into the 20s with some near 30F locations by the lakeshores. Warmer airmass moving in Sunday looks to support widespread upper 40s to low 50s. Lakeshores though should be moderated by the cooler lakes and should stay largely in the 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 753 PM EDT WED APR 6 2022 Poor flying conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period as a low pressure system rotates around the UP. Currently, conditions are ranging from VFR at KIWD to MVFR at KSAW and IFR at KCMX. However, conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate to LIFR or even worse at all TAF sites over the next several hours where they will stay for the duration of the TAF period. Expect rain to transition to snow at KIWD and KCMX overnight. Meanwhile, winds will initially be southeasterly at KIWD before shifting to the north/northeast tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, expect primarily southeast winds at KSAW before becoming northeasterly tomorrow afternoon, and east/northeasterly winds at KCMX. Gusts up to 21 kts will be possible at times mainly tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 342 PM EDT WED APR 6 2022 Slow moving system will linger over the Upper Great Lakes through at least Friday. With that, expect winds to shift to northeasterly tonight in the western portions of the lake while the eastern half remains easterly or southeasterly. Expecting some gales to 40 kts to mix in across the west while the east primarily stays 20 kts or less tonight and Thursday. By late Thursday, winds should be primarily northerly or northeasterly given the low`s anticipated position southeast of the region. Winds to near 30kt are expected and some gales may be mixed in. Confidence isn`t high that gales will persist into Thursday night, but its entirely possible. As the low pulls away Friday and winds shift to north- northeasterly, expect winds to gradually fall. Winds are expected to be 20 kts or less Saturday and Sunday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ to 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Thursday for LSZ162. Gale Warning from 8 AM Thursday to 3 AM EDT Friday for LSZ263. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...JTP AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...JTP
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Gusty winds continue to be the primary weather story through Thursday with gusts tomorrow as high as 55 mph or greater. A strong and nearly vertically stacked low pressure system continues to move east into northern Wisconsin with a trough axis extending into the Missouri River Valley. This system will remain nearly stationary before ejecting east into the Great Lakes area Friday night. As our area remains on the backside of the system, gusty northwest winds seem to be the main weather story along with passing showers. Northwest winds will diminish slightly this evening and overnight but will continue a wind advisory for the northern half of the CWA where winds should hold steady around 25-35mph. In addition, have hoisted a High Wind Warning for portions of northeast Nebraska Thursday where gusts could surpass the criteria of 58 mph for a few hours during the late morning and early afternoon. Scattered showers are possible again Thursday late morning and early afternoon with some potential for snow in far northeast Nebraska with higher low-level lapse rates and a bit of limited moisture. HREF probability of 1/2sm visibility and greater than 30mph winds does paint some areas in northeast Nebraska so will need to watch for any lower visibilities in falling snow showers. At this time, a mix of rain and snow is most likely but will continue to watch this closely. If a longer period of snow is anticipated like the RAP would indicate, conditions could become quite nasty for a time in far northeast Nebraska. Again, will continue to monitor this situation very closely over the next 24 hours. Highs on Thursday should top out in the lower to mid 40s across much of the area. A few showers could linger into Friday morning before this system slowly slides east of the region. Highs are forecast to range from the low 40s to low 50s across much of the area. Winds on Friday will still be gusty, but nothing like today and Thursday. Weak upper level ridging moves overhead on Saturday with return low- level flow increasing and warming the area into the 50s and lower 60s. With increasing surface winds by late afternoon and low relative humidities, will need to watch for any fire concerns. Southwesterly flow increases early next week as troughing digs across the Rockies. There are still many uncertainties within the deterministic and ensemble solutions, but the large scale pattern would favorable a stormy few days. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Strong northwest winds will remain the primary aviation hazard through 00Z Friday. The strongest winds are anticipated between 15Z Thursday and 00Z Friday, when peak gusts of 45 to 60 mph are anticipated. Forecaster confidence in the winds is high. VFR conditions should prevail prior to 15Z Thursday. After 15Z Thursday MVFR/IFR conditions and light rain/snow showers should advance through the region from north to south. Visibilities may be sharply reduced (1/4 to 3 SM) at times in any snow showers. Confidence in the reduced visibilities was to low for inclusion in the TAFs (KOMA, KOFK & KLNK) at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ015-033-034-044-045. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ050>053- 065>067-078-088-089. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ050>053-065>067- 078-088-089. High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ011-012- 016>018-030>032-042-043. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ011-012-016>018- 030>032-042-043. IA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for IAZ043-055. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for IAZ056-069. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kern AVIATION...Albright
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
940 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift into the area tonight, ahead of an area of low pressure and strong cold front that will cross the region tonight into Thursday. Low pressure over the Great Lakes will bring another cold front through central NC Friday night and early Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 PM Wednesday... Still a complex, low-confidence weather pattern through tonight. The warm front has lifted through central NC and surface dewpoints continue to rise, with mid/upper 60s from Charlotte east to Clinton as of 00Z. A boundary remains over the northern Coastal Plain, with more easterly/northeasterly flow north of it. An area of showers and thunderstorms could clip the Sandhills and the southern and central Coastal Plain areas this evening while an MCS continues to propagate eastward through GA and SC. To the west, ahead of the cold front and along the Appalachians, a line of strong to severe storms continues to progress eastward. Latest mesoanalysis shows the best bulk shear over the foothills and western Piedmont, while the best instability is over the southern Piedmont, Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. Given the current environment and observations, the biggest threat for strong storms this evening will be across the southern third of central NC, with the primary threats being damaging wind and hail. Later tonight into Thursday morning, the threat shifts west to with the line of pre-frontal convection moving in from the west and potentially some re-invigoration of convection along the front itself as it moves into the area, though the timing is not quite nailed down yet. Latest HRRR simulations suggest the convection could move into the Triad around 06Z, with redevelopment possible around/after daybreak. Temperatures should remain quite mild tonight, bottoming out in the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Wednesday... ...Marginal and Slight Risk of severe storms mainly focused in the eastern part of Central NC Thursday... On Thu, the cold front will be located just east of the Appalachians, with an area of low pressure along NC/VA. Showers may be ongoing in the morning with extensive cloudiness. Clouds should decrease ahead of the cold front to allow for highs to reach the mid/upper 70s to around 80 in the SE. Over the Triad, highs will only be in the 60s with the front moving through. Redevelopment of showers and storms are expected in the late morning to afternoon along and east of US-1, where instability regenerates with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, fueling instability of 1500 to 2000 J/kg of CAPE. With deep-layer shear still expected, the combination of these two ingredients will favor damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats over the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. However, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out over the Northern Coastal Plain where low-level shear is more favorable. The storm activity should exit the area by the late afternoon as the cold front slides through. Cold air advection behind the front Thu night will lead to low temperatures dipping into the lower 40s in the NW and around 50 in the SE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 333 PM Wednesday... Friday/Saturday: Aloft, an anomalous mid/upper-level trough will maintain cyclonic flow along the eastern seaboard through early Sunday. By Friday morning, however, the strongest low-level moisture transport axis, along with the surface cold front will have shifted well east of central NC. Chances for rain will therefore remain low on Friday and Saturday, with perhaps some isolated showers/sprinkles during each afternoon/evening associated with the passing of a few short wave disturbances embedded within the cyclonic flow. Otherwise, models continue to suggest good mixing Friday, with wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible across the region (maybe stronger depending on cloud cover and how deep we can mix). Low-level thicknesses are expected to drop Friday as modest CAA follows the departed cold front. This should set up a cooler day Friday with highs in the lower 60s northwest to upper 60s in the southeast. A secondary cold front is expected to push through central NC Friday night providing some additional cooling. Ensemble guidance suggests low-level thicknesses may drop as low as ~1330 m early Saturday morning, or about 15 to 20 m below normal for this time of year. However, forecast soundings suggest mixing may hold on through late Friday evening. This, coupled with some passing cloud cover, will limit lows in the mid to upper 30s (northwest) to low to mid 40s (southeast). Highs on Saturday will remain cool generally in the mid 50s northwest to lower 60s southeast. Below normal low temperatures (mid to upper 30s) are forecast again on Sunday morning, potentially nearing frost criteria for western portions of central NC. While confidence is still lacking a bit at this forecast update, conditions do seem favorable enough to at least warrant the mention of possible patchy frost across the western Piedmont early Sunday morning. Future forecast shifts will need to monitor and perhaps consider frost/freeze products. Sunday through Wednesday: A mid-level ridge builds back across the eastern U.S. Sunday ushering in increasing heights aloft over central NC. At the surface, high pressure located over the deep south will migrate over the southeast through Monday, and then offshore by mid-week. This pattern will promote dry conditions Sunday through Tuesday with a warming trend as flow at the surface turns more west/southwesterly. Highs on Sunday will still be a bit cooler in the 60s, but should warm into the 70s Monday, and then near the 80s by Tuesday/Wednesday. The area will also start to see a rebound of dewpoints into the mid to upper 50s as southerly fetch off the Atlantic increases along the western ridge of the offshore high. Consequently, models suggest marginal upglide along the 300K isentropic surface Wednesday afternoon, which may act to produce some light rain showers especially across the western Piedmont. Thus, have maintained slight chance of rain widely, with the best chance of rain across the far western Piedmont Wednesday afternoon. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 800 PM Wednesday... 24 hour TAF period: Very low confidence TAF forecast. If, when and where showers/storms will occur from now through Thursday morning are difficult to figure out. Do expect some showers/storms to lift northward through central NC with outflow from a storm system over GA/SC this evening. However, there is also a chance few or no showers/storms will occur at all through tonight at any given terminal. Even the cig forecast is tough, as there is a good signal for sub-VFR conditions (possibly intermittent to start), but how low and for how long is in question. Best guess is MVFR/IFR spreading over all terminals at some point tonight. There is a better chance of showers and storms to move through the area Thursday morning ahead of a cold front, with the usual decrease in vsbys and increase in winds expected. Storms could be strong to severe Thursday, especially in the aft/eve at the eastern 3 terminals. Improvement to VFR should begin toward the end of the TAF period from the west. -KC Looking ahead: Some forecast soundings are hinting at the possibility for a brief period of fog at KRDU and KRWI Fri night, but otherwise VFR should prevail. Some gusty winds in VFR sprinkles/showers will be possible Fri. VFR conditions will prevail Sat through Mon. -KC/Kren && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kren NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...Kren LONG TERM...Luchetti/JT AVIATION...KC/Kren