Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/07/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
804 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary meanders across Virginia tonight. Another
area of low pressure and a cold front cross the area Thursday. A
trough of low pressure crosses the area Friday. Cool high pressure
builds into the area for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 755 PM EDT Wednesday...
Latest MSAS shows the offshore low pulling away from the coast while
a weak frontal bndry remains draped across the southern half of
our area. The boundary will stay along the VA/NC border tonight
while moisture from the approaching system to the west moves
east of the mountains. Showers will spread sw- ne through the
night with the highest PoPs (likely) across the Piedmont late.
Not that excited about the thunder threat tonight given the
frontal boundary`s position, but won`t rule out a rumble of
thunder late across NC. Lows around 50 north, mid- upr 50s
south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...
The front pushes east across the region Thurs morning with sct
shwrs. Models then slow the front during the aftrn due to an a
triple point low progged to lift ne mainly east of I-95 after 18z.
SPC conts to highlight a slight risk across the se Thurs. While
instability does increase, the key to how much svr will be the amt
of heating that occurs before tstms dvlp. HRRR showing nmrs cells
popping up first arnd the I95 corridor south of PTB arnd 17Z then
spreading ene while incrg in coverage btwn 18Z-00Z Fri. This is the
time frame of concern for svr potential honing in on sern VA/nern NC
btwn 20Z-00Z where the latest parameters suggest psbl supercell
dvlpmnt. Concern right now is damaging winds and large hail, but a
tornado can not be ruled out across the se. Anthr wide range of
temps due to a CAA wedge and frontal bndry movements. Highs arnd 60
ivof LKU to the mid-upr 70s across the se.
The triple point low pushes ne of the area Thurs eve. The trailing
cold front and assctd convection pushes offshore Thurs eve as well.
Upr level energy lingers resulting in a few shwrs across the area
thru the nite. Lows low-mid 40s west, mid 40s-lwr 50s east.
An upr lvl trof swings across the rgn Fri/Fri eve. Sct shwrs are
psbl during pk heating/eve hrs as cold pool aloft moves east. Otw,
pt sunny. Highs in the 60s. Colder Fri nite with lows upr 30s nw to
mid 40s se.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Wednesday...
High pressure over the south Sun moves across the Mid Atlntc region
Mon then becomes centered offshore Tue/Wed. Dry through this period
along with a warming trend.
Highs Sun 55-60. Chilly Sun nite as the ridge axis moves overhead.
Lows mid-upr 30s away from the water, 40-45 near the water. Highs
Mon 65-70 away from the water, low-mid 60s near the water. Lows Mon
nite in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Tue/Wed mid-upr 70s away from
the water, upr 60s-lwr 70s near the water. Lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Wednesday...
A frontal boundary is draped across the area this evening. IFR CIGs
at SBY spread to the other terminals overnight as the front drops to
the south and onshore flow assists along the coast. Expect mainly
IFR Thursday morning-afternoon as showers overspread the region from
west-east. E winds are 5-10kt overnight, shifting the SW Thursday
morning. An area of low pressure and a cold front cross the region
late Thursday afternoon. Expect showers and a possibility for
thunder. CIGs lift from west-east Thursday night as the low pressure
system moves offshore.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...
Winds are generally N 10 to 15 kt this afternoon behind a departing
low as a backdoor cold front pushes SW. Winds become NE this
evening, becoming E 15 to 20 kt tonight ahead of the next low. As
such, have issued SCAs for the Ches Bay and Lower James from 10 PM
this evening through 7 AM.
A sfc low develops along a cold front over W NC tonight and moves NE
across VA tomorrow, eventually crossing N of the local waters
tomorrow evening. Winds become SE 15 kt tomorrow morning,
diminishing to 10-15 kt by the afternoon. Showers and storms will be
possible primarily tomorrow afternoon into the early evening ahead
of/along the cold front with locally strong to severe storms
possible over the waters. Winds become NW 10 to 15 kt behind the
front tomorrow evening/night but are expected to remain sub-SCA at
this time due to weak CAA. Winds are expected to remain sub-SCA
through Sat.
Waves of 1-2 ft build to 2-3 ft this evening. Waves subside to
around 2 ft tomorrow afternoon. Seas of 5-7 ft linger through
tomorrow afternoon before subsiding to 4-6 ft, eventually subsiding
below 5 ft Fri. Have therefore extended SCAs here until 6 AM Fri.
Seas of 3-4 ft across the southern coastal waters may eventually
build to 4-5 ft Thurs evening, but confidence is too low to issue
SCAs at this time.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-
634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AM/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...RMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1034 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will thicken and lower tonight with some rain
moving in during the early morning hours, as a large, slow moving
storm system moves towards the area. Periods of rain are anticipated
through the day on Thursday, with some locally moderate bursts of
rain and a rumble of thunder possible for the afternoon and evening
hours. Rain will finally taper off Thursday night. Although it will
be seasonable, a few lingering showers and plenty of clouds will
continue for Friday. Unsettled and cool weather is expected over the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1034 PM EDT...Mid and upper level heights continue to
fall ahead of the mid and upper level trough approaching from
the northern Plains, Great Lakes Region and Midwest. Low clouds
are increasing south and east of the Capital Region, as another
low pressure system approaches the Mid Atlantic Region and an
occluded front approaches from the west/southwest associated
with a sprawling low pressure system near the western Great
Lakes Region.
Clouds will thicken and lower from the south and west overnight,
and we tried to trim back slightly the timing for some light
rain to overspread the region based on the latest CAMs such as
the 3-km HRRR and NAM. The light rain may reach locations west
of the Hudson River Valley between 1-3 am and then spread
eastward towards the Hudson River Valley and the NY-western New
England border between 3-6 am towards the NY border and western
New England. The stronger synoptic forcing initially will be
from the Hudson River Valley corridor westward.
Lows will stay above most of the entire area. Lows will be in
the low to mid 40s for valley areas, with mid and upper 30s
across the higher terrain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Occluded front will be slowly making its way towards the area on
Thursday. The frontal boundary will be located across western
New York to start the day, but as a wave of low pressure
develops along the front`s triple point, the boundary will only
make slow progress towards the area through the day. With a
strong s-se flow at the low to mid levels, plenty of moisture
will be surging northward off the western Atlantic Ocean. PWATS
reach 1-2 STD above normal (according to the 12z GEFS) with
values as high as 1.25 inches.
Rainfall will become steadier and heavier through the day, with
the heaviest rates in the late afternoon and evening hours,
just ahead of the occluded boundary. Initially, bands of rain
will be somewhat spotty and light for the morning hours, but it
will pick up in both coverage and intensity as the day goes on.
The strong s-se winds (around 50 kts at 925 and 850 hpa), will
allow for some enhancement across the Catskills and southern
Adirondacks. Some elevated instability may allow for a few
rumbles of thunder as well, mainly for southern parts of the
area, just ahead of the approaching boundary. See the Hydro
discussion below for how we expect this rainfall to impact area
rivers/streams.
In addition, the strong low levels winds may allow for some
gusty winds in typical downslope locations across western New
England and the Taconics, as the wind funnels through the
terrain. These gusts may exceed 40 mph at times for late in the
day Thursday, especially between any breaks in the steadier
rainfall.
With the expected clouds and precip, temps will be held into the
40s through the day. Some valley areas could top out in the low
50s by late in the day.
The steadiest rainfall will be ending on Thursday night from
southwest to northeast, as the occluded boundary finally moves
through the area and the low pressure area lifts into New
England. Behind the front, temps will fall into the mid 30s to
mid 40s across the area, although it will probably stay fairly
cloudy.
On Friday, our area will be in the lull behind the departing
storm but ahead of the approaching large closed off low located
across the Great Lakes. As a result, it will still be somewhat
seasonable, with highs reaching into the 50s for most of the
area. There will probably be some breaks of sun by afternoon.
While most of the day looks to be dry, some scattered showers
may approach by late in the day and into Friday night, as the
upper level low spins eastward. Lows will fall into the 30s for
Friday night, with a few passing showers possible. High terrain
areas could see some wet snow mix in, as temps aloft starts to
cool off thanks to approaching upper level cold pool.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended forecast and weekend opens cool and unsettled with an
upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. However, a warming
trend with a mid and upper level ridge building in early next week
will allow for temps to trend back above normal heading into the mid
week with drier conditions.
Sat-Sat Night...The medium range guidance and ensembles continue to
have a broad upper level trough over eastern Canada and the eastern
CONUS with multiple short-waves pivoting through it and across NY
and New England. One short-wave Saturday morning will bring rain
and snow showers and cool conditions. We have kept PoPs in the high
chance and likely range. The better chance of some light wet snow
accums will be over the mountains such as the southern Adirondacks,
eastern Catskills, and southern Greens in the morning. H850 temps
will be running a little colder than normal based on the latest
NAEFS, and the 500 hPa temps will be -1 to -2 standard deviations
below normal. A rumble of thunder could be possible if any heating
occurs with the cold pool aloft. Highs will be in the lower 50s in
the valleys and NW CT and 40s over the rest of the region with some
upper 30s over the higher terrain. The showers will diminish at
night with perhaps a few snow showers/flurries over the western
Mohawk Valley and the southern Adirondacks. It will be cool under
the upper low with lows in the 30s with some upper 20s to lower 30s
over the mtns.
Sun-Sun Night... A couple more weak impulses rotate around the upper
low, as it moves across upstate NY and New England. The cyclonic
vorticity advection coupled with the steep lapse rates due to the
cold pool aloft will allow for some isolated to scattered showers. A
few snow showers are possible over the higher terrain. The showers
will diminish with the loss of the diurnal heating, as the trough
axis moves east. Heights will begin to rise with ridging building in
from the west towards daybreak. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid
40s to lower 50s in the valley areas, and upper 30s to mid 40s over
the higher terrain. Lows will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
Mon-Tue...High pressure builds in from the south. Mid and upper
level heights rise, as a moderating trend in temps begin. Highs
trend toward normal readings with mid 40s to lower 50s over the
mtns, and mid and upper 50s in the valleys. A warm front lifts
north of the region Monday night into early Tuesday. Some clouds
increase and a few showers may graze the western Mohawk Valley and
southern Adirondacks. Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s. In the
warm advection pattern, expect temps to surge above normal on Tue.
Highs will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s over the higher
terrain, and mid 60s to lower 70s in the valleys.
Tue Night into Wed...Ridging off the Mid Atlantic Coast will remain
in control with mainly warm and fair weather. An isolated shower in
the forecast area, and may be possible closer to a front boundary
over central and eastern Great Lakes Region, but H850 temps will be
+1 to +2 STDEVs above normal with temps rising close to 10 degrees
above normal heading into the mid week. We went above the NBM
heading into WED with widespread upper 60s to lower 70s in the
valley areas, and upper 50s to mid 60s over the hills and mtns.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Low level easterly flow off the Atlantic
resulting in widespread stratus clouds this evening. Cig heights
are lower in MVFR range at KPOU/KPSF, but VFR levels at
KALB/KGFL where some downsloping is occurring. With continued
E/SE flow regime, the stratus clouds will remain in place
through tonight. Cig heights should start to gradually lower at
KALB/KGFL overnight, but MVFR not expected until early Thursday
morning.
A frontal system slowly approaching from the west will bring
increasing chances for rain early Tuesday morning. Rain will be
fairly widespread much of Thursday with a few breaks from time
to time. Steadier and locally/briefly heavy rainfall will be
possible starting late Thursday afternoon as a wave of low
pressure approaches from the mid Atlantic region. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will also be possible late Thursday,
with the greater coverage near KPOU where PROB30 for TS has been
mentioned starting at 21Z. Conditions may vary between MVFR and
IFR depending on when steady rain is falling vs. intermittent
lighter rain.
A southeast low level jet will move across parts of the area
late Thursday afternoon, with low level wind shear occurring due
to winds at 2000 ft AGL expected to be around 45-50 kt at KPOU
starting around 21Z Thursday. LLWS will expand eastward to KPSF,
but this is not expected until 00Z Friday.
Surface winds will be east-southeast tonight less than 10 kt.
Winds on Thursday will be southeast increasing to around 9-13 kt
with gusts of 20-25 kt, especially at KALB/KPOU/KPSF.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A frontal system will bring a widespread soaking rainfall to the
region from late tonight through the day on Thursday, with
rainfall ending on Thursday night. Some additional showers are
expected Friday into the weekend. RH values will remain above
70 percent tomorrow, and will be above 50 percent for both
Friday and Saturday. Southeast winds will be gusty for Thursday,
especially across the higher elevations, with some gusts over 30
mph possible. Lighter winds are expected Friday into Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A slow moving frontal boundary will bring periods of rain to the
region from late tonight through Thursday. Rainfall will be
winding down on Thursday night. The heaviest rainfall will
likely be late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, when
rainfall rates may exceed 0.25 inch per hour. Rainfall amounts
will be around an inch for valley areas, although high terrain
areas may see two to three inches (especially the Catskill and
southern Adirondacks).
This rainfall will allow for ponding of water on roadways, as
well as in urban, low lying and poor drainage areas. Some small
streams may reach bankfull across the high terrain. There is a
marginal risk for flash flooding. While rises are expected on
larger rivers, the main stem rivers should not reach flood
stage at this time.
Although some showers are expected Friday into the weekend,
any rainfall will be lighter and rivers and streams will be
receding.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
957 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022
Regional radar shows light snow beginning to enter east-central
North Dakota, with Rolla reporting -SN within the last hour.
Upstream observations are inconsistent on visibility as some sites
report 1 1/4 mile and others up to 4 miles and light snow in
eastern North Dakota. The lack of lower level frontogenesis to
provide a signal for a predictable heavier snowfall band (with
ascent focused aloft with strengthening Q-Vector convergence)
makes the near-term snowfall forecast a challenge still, but a
general area from Wells/Foster on south for some accumulating snow
still looks reasonable, as well as the Turtle Mountains. No
changes needed to the going forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022
Deep occluded upper level low continues to impact the Northern
Plains, directing northerly flow vort lobes through the Dakotas.
This active flow aloft will maintain a strong pressure gradient
over the region tonight through Thursday. Additionally, the cold
air aloft associated with the vort max has created enough
instability for some diurnal showers this afternoon.
Weak convective activity should diminish this evening, then wrap-
around snow should push west into the James River Valley and
Turtle Mountain areas. This snow may even approach the Highway 83
corridor tonight and Thursday morning. However RAP guidance keeps
the best omega within the DGZ (and snow development potential)
further east. Snow and winds may cause some visibility issues in
the JRV, with even light snow combined with 25-30 kt winds can
drop visibility down to around 1 mile. Will continue to message
blowing snow potential in the High Wind Warning for now with wind
being the primary issue, but visibility and snowfall trends will
need to be monitored for further action.
UPDATE Issued at 437 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022
Quick update to PoPs for diurnal showers that have developed over
central North Dakota this afternoon. Though temperatures are well
above freezing, wet bulb temperatures are low enough over the
north central to allow for some snow mixed into rain showers.
Central North Dakota diurnal activity should diminish with loss of
insolation this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022
Very strong winds continue through Thursday as deep low pressure
remains centered over east central MN/northwest WI resulting in a
tight pressure gradient over most of the area. A few obs have
already reached high wind criteria (58 mph or greater) and many
more have gusted from 45 to 55 mph.
While low pressure will very slowly migrate eastward over the
period, its grasp will be maintained over the forecast area
through Thursday before gradually being released from west to
east Thursday night. Due to this, will maintain the High Wind
Warning through Thursday from the James River Valley through
portions of south central North Dakota. High winds will be a
little more borderline for counties in the south central part of
the state, but feel the risk/confidence for a few gusts is high
enough to maintain the warning. Otherwise, the rest of central ND
through southwestern ND remains in a Wind Advisory through the
same period.
Wrap-around precipitation will gradually work westward into the
eastern forecast area tonight, especially over the JRV.
Precipitation may begin this evening as light rain or a mix of
rain and snow. However, it will rapidly become all snow through
the night tonight. 1 to 2 inches of snow is possible in the JRV,
as well as the Turtle Mountains. Otherwise, any accumulations will
be light.
Presently, diurnal cu has developed across pretty much all of the
forecast area where low level stratus does not remain. As a
result, returns have begun to show up on radar and some CAMs
suggest they will persist through the day. Doubting much, if
anything, will reach the ground. Therefore, put a chance of
sprinkles across the area through most of the day to account for
this.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022
To start the period, any remaining influence of this week`s system
(breezy winds in the JRV) finally exits the area as surface high
pressure moves into and through North Dakota. Aloft, a ridge
transits through the Plains states Friday afternoon through
Saturday. The main impact of this will be a brief warm-up west
Friday, and across the entire forecast area Saturday. Even with
the warm-up, highs are expected to remain mostly in the 50s at
this time, which is seasonable for this time of the year.
Models then suggest a trough off Canadian low pressure will bowl
down the ridge and produce the areas next best chance of light
precipitation Sunday through Sunday night. What happens beyond that
becomes a lot murkier. Ensemble clusters are pretty consistent in
the development of a west CONUS trough next week. However, they
remain divided in just how amplified the trough becomes. A little
over half the ensemble members suggest a well amplified trough
that would provide southwesterly flow to the area and the
potential for an impactful storm system. The other half suggest a
less amplified trough and almost more zonal flow over the forecast
area, which would be less favorable for heavier precipitation.
The one thing that seems highly likely at this point in time
regardless, is below average temperatures through at least the
first half of next week, and probably through the entire workweek
as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022
Strong winds will continue tonight through Thursday across all
terminals. Gusts in excess of 50 kts will continue to be possible
at KJMS, though more likely during the daytime hours. MVFR stratus
will spread from east to west, impacting KJMS by 06Z and KMOT-KBIS
by 09Z, with periods of IFR cigs at KJMS. Snow will be possible
tonight and Thursday morning, most likely at KJMS. The strong
winds and falling snow may reduce visibility at KJMS to around 1
mile at times, until chances for snow are reduced by 18Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Thursday for NDZ003>005-
011>013-019>022-033-034-040>044.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Thursday for NDZ023-
025-035>037-045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AE
SHORT TERM...Telken
LONG TERM...Telken
AVIATION...AE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
524 PM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022
UPDATE...The High Wind Warnings were allowed to expire across the
area. Winds have continued their downward trend leading up to the
expiration time. While some periodic gusts between 45-50 mph will
still be possible over the next few hours, winds will rapidly
diminish soon after sunset.
Decided to expand the new High Wind Watch for the southern NE
panhandle to account for a ramp up in the winds expected tomorrow
morning and continuing through much of the afternoon. This area may
need to be upgraded to a High Wind Warning later this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 256 PM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022
Strong winds have continued along and east of the Laramie Range
into the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon. Recent wind gusts near
Scottsbluff are over 60 mph with blowing dust being reported by
local storm spotters with localized reductions to visibility.
These plumes of dust were visible on GOES 16/17 satellite imagery
near Sidney this morning, but scattered to broken cloud cover has
developed overhead this afternoon. Latest RAP analysis shows 60
kt flow currently over the Nebraska Panhandle with steep low-level
lapse rates which looks to remain in place into late this
afternoon. High Wind Warnings are currently in effect until 6 PM
MDT which looks good timing wise as winds should decrease headed
into this evening.
Enhanced flow aloft will return early Thursday morning as the deep
upper level low continues to spin over the Great Lakes region.
This could lead to another brief period of high winds over the
Nebraska Panhandle through early Thursday afternoon. Previous
shift had issued High Wind Watches for portions of the panhandle
for Thursday. Upgrades will likely be needed, especially for
eastern counties of the CWA. Latest GFS forecast seems to have
progressed this enhanced flow eastward earlier Thursday afternoon
which could lead to high wind potential wrapping up by mid-
afternoon. Hi-Res guidance is also in agreement with this notion.
Regardless, northwest winds gusting 50 to 60 mph are likely.
Additionally, with similar conditions, patchy blowing dust with
localized reductions in visibility
With calming winds and clearing skies, Thursday night temperatures
look to remain below normal for early April in the low 20s before
the warm up begins late this week into this weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022
Not much change in the first portion of the long term forecast
period in today`s model cycles. The long-duration high wind period
will finally wind down on Friday as a the broad upper-level
trough lumbers eastward through the northern CONUS. Expect
temperatures to rebound as well with highs around 10 degrees above
average on Friday, and 15 to 20 degrees above average on
Saturday. The influence of the next major trough to move through
the Rockies/High Plains will begin to be felt on Saturday
afternoon into early Sunday as fast mid and upper-level flow
spreads eastward. Expect winds to pick up in the higher terrain,
with gusts in the 35-45 mph range likely for the typical wind-prone
areas.
Attention turns to the precipitation forecast from Sunday onward
through the end of the long-term period. Several waves of energy
will pivot around a broad trough in the northern intermountain west,
with the final one potentially bringing a round of moderate to heavy
early-spring snow to southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska on
Wednesday. The first wave looks to arrive on Sunday morning as a
weak area of lift ejects eastward into the high plains. Ensemble and
deterministic guidance continues to be in good agreement with this
feature. Expect generally light precipitation with this event,
especially in areas from I-25 eastward as dry air near the
surface looks to greatly hinder precipitation totals. Guidance for
the Sierra Madres and Snowy range have generally centered in on a
2-4 inch snow event here. The next wave of energy (and quite a
bit more moisture) will pivot through on Monday night into
Tuesday. This portion of the event appears to be more
frontogenetically driven. The GFS and its ensemble suite have
shown a bit of an uptick with totals in this portion of the event,
compared with the ECMWF which keeps most of this moisture/forcing
back west with the main low. PoP chances have been increased
during this timeframe in this forecast cycle. Additionally, the
overnight and morning timeframe of heaviest precipitation shown by
the GFS here would favor better accumulation chances, given the
early April sun angle.
Finally, the main surface low pressure system will finally eject
eastward on Tuesday night through Wednesday. This element of the
forecast has been the most difficult to pin down details at this
range. The ECMWF and GFS have traded places a few times in the past
few model cycles, each of which occasionally depicting a major early-
spring snow storm for eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska with
upwards of a foot of snow. While these totals are certainly a
reasonable worst-case solution, the range of outcomes shown by both
EPS and GEFS ensemble guidance is still quite broad with the lower
25th percentile of solutions showing 3 inches or less in places such
as Cheyenne, Scottsbluff and Sidney. The overall message remains
consistent: There is potential for a high-impact spring snowstorm
early next week and much cooler than average temperatures are
likely.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 524 PM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022
No changes made to previous aviation discuss for the 00Z TAF package.
Extremely windy conditions remain the primary concern at all
terminal locations this afternoon. This will be especially true in
western Nebraska where gusts over 50 knots are possible. Blowing
dust may reduce vis to the 3-5 mile range especially at SNY and
AIA. Expect scattered lower-level clouds in western Nebraska but
CIG levels will remain MVFR or greater through the evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022
Northwest winds expected to become strong again shortly after
sunrise today. Especially east of the Laramie Range where we still
have High Wind Warnings in effect through this afternoon. Cold
temperatures today will keep afternoon humidity well above
critical levels. Weak cold front moves through the northern
Nebraska Panhandle into Niobrara County this afternoon...bringing
small chances for light snow to these areas. Strong northwest
winds expected behind this front Thursday...especially the central
and southern Nebraska Panhandle. Warming temperatures Friday into
this weekend as high pressure builds back into the area. Could
see near critical humidity with these warmer temperatures Friday
and Saturday.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ101-102-
106>108-116>119.
NE...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for NEZ002-003-
019>021-054-055-095-096.
High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon
for NEZ003-019>021-054-055-096.
&&
$$ UPDATE...AW
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...MAC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
936 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022
Surface analysis this evening shows deep low pressure in place over
NRN WI and the UP of Michigan. Broad cyclonic flow was flowing
around this low and across Indiana. Water Vapor shows a deep upper
low in place over northern WI...providing broad cyclonic flow across
the upper Midwest...Great Plains and into the Ohio Valley. GOES16
shows stratocu clouds upstream of Central Indiana over IL and
WI...continuing to make progress southeast toward Central Indiana.
Overall ongoing forecast remains in good shape. Diurnal showers
appear to have come to an end across the region as heating and minor
instability has been lost. Given the satellite trends...increased sky
grids toward more of a mostly cloudy type forecast during the
overnight. Given this but the cool NW flow kept overnight lows
unchanged from the previous forecast as mixing and clouds cover
should prevent max cooling.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022
...Much cooler temperatures by the end of the week...
...Snow possibly mixing in Thursday night into Friday...
Today into Tonight
We`ll start off the short term with a cold front sweeping across
Indiana. Rain has been widespread across the area today, but will
gradually end from west to east as the front progresses eastward.
Clearing has been noted on satellite across the western counties,
which will also spread eastward. Temperatures should rebound in the
post-frontal environment as the airmass is dry and relatively well-
mixed. Some wind gusts over 20kt could be mixed downward as well,
especially this afternoon before the atmosphere stabilizes
overnight.
The aforementioned post-frontal wedge of dry air is fairly narrow,
and a cu field developing across western Illinois reveals the
presence of cold and moist air associated with an upper-level low
currently located in the upper midwest. Hi-res models are hinting at
a secondary cold front as the colder air mass works into the region
this evening. In fact, some are even showing a narrow line of
showers developing and spreading into some of our northern counties.
Thursday into Friday
Once that secondary cold front passes through, it`s all downhill as
winter tries to make a brief comeback. The stacked upper-level low
is expected to slowly drop southward towards Chicago. Cold air
advection intensifies and 850 temps should be around -5C by Thursday
morning. Pockets of upper-level energy rotating around the upper
low, combined with steepening lapse rates, will promote the
generation of scattered showers Thursday afternoon. Some wind gusts
over 20 kts could return as the atmosphere once again becomes well-
mixed. As the core of the upper low drifts southward, continued CAA
may allow precip type to become an issue. Beyond midnight Friday,
critical thicknesses support snow across much of the region.
&&
.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022
- Cold and wet weather early weekend
- Dry with moderating temperatures Saturday
- Much warmer and unsettled weather next
Friday through Sunday...
Upper low, currently seen on H20 vapor vapor imagery spinning near
the western shores of Lake Superior, will wobble to southwestern
lower Michigan by 12z Friday and to southern Ontario by 12z Saturday
Lobes of vorticity will rotate around this feature and across
central Indiana through Saturday. This forcing in addition to deep
moisture up to around 300 millibars per BUFKIT soundings will
bring widespread showery weather to the area Friday. Look for
Lesser chances Friday night the precip to end from west to east
into Saturday. BUFKIT supports a mix of rain and snow with better
chances for snow during the morning and nighttime hours and better
chances of rain in the afternoon.
Models suggest steep low level lapse rates will result in non-zero
CAPE Friday (100 J/KG or less). This along 500 millibar temperatures
to 32 degree degrees below zero, the freezing level below 1500 feet
and saturation and lift in the dendritic growth zone could result in
some graupel mixing in with the snow and rain. Despite all this,
above freezing surfaces should keep any snow accumulation relegated
to elevated surfaces.
As the upper low moves away across southern Ontario, the mix will be
ending from west to east on Saturday. Upper ridging will follow and
bring some sunshine to the area Sunday. That and southerly low level
winds around a southeastern states high will allow for temperatures
to moderate much closer to normal. While, highs Friday and Saturday
will struggle to reach the lower and middle 40s with the clouds
hanging around. Sunday will see temperatures return to the middle
50s and lower 60s. Will have to keep an eye out for temperatures
Saturday night as clearing skies and light winds could result in
frost which will be a concern for frost sensitive plants and
vegetation.
Sunday night through Wednesday...
The southeastern surface high will gradually move east to Bermuda by
Wednesday as a deepening low pressure system moves into the central
Plains and upper Missouri Valley. This will ensure a prolonged
period of Gulf inflow which will bring warmer temperatures and deep
moisture to central Indiana for early and middle parts of next week.
Meanwhile, upper southwest flow will eject upper impulses northeast
across the area. Finally, the increase in temperatures and moisture
will create an unstable atmosphere by next Tuesday or Wednesday. The
result will be a period of unsettled weather with the best chances
for convection Tuesday and Wednesday as a related cold front gets
closer.
Gulf inflow supports above average temperatures, despite the
increasing convection, with afternoon highs in the 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022
IMPACTS:
- Mainly VFR Cigs this evening but MVFR conditions will be expected
on Thursday.
- Gusts of 20-25 knts along with scattered rain showers will be
expected on Thursday afternoon.
DISCUSSION:
At issuance...brief clearing was found across the TAF sites as a dry
slot in the wake of a cold front was pushing across Central Indiana.
This will be short lived as broader cyclonic flow over WI and IL
will push into Central Indiana this evening. GOES16 shows advancing
stratocu associated with this flow over IL...advancing toward
Central Indiana. These clouds are expected to arrive this evening
and provide VFR CIGs through the evening and into the overnight
period.
The broad upper low in place over WI and IL is expected to keep
cyclonic flow and cold air aloft in place over Indiana on Thursday.
Forecast soundings suggest attainable convective temperatures along
with saturated steep lapse rates in the late morning and afternoon.
Furthermore...the HRRR suggests sct showers development tomorrow as
these elements come together. Thus have used VCSH mention to account
for showers along with MVFR Cigs.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...Puma
Short Term...Eckhoff
Long Term...MK
Aviation...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
754 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 434 PM EDT WED APR 6 2022
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a well-defined mid-level
low centered in nw WI. Warm conveyor associated with this feature
brought a band of light/mdt rain across the area with intensity
increasing as it shifted e and ne. This rain did switch over to snow
or snow/rain mix at times over the high terrain of the Keweenaw this
morning. Webcam at Calumet showed some slushy snow accumulation on
the road. The steady pcpn has shifted e and ne and is now over
eastern Upper MI arcing nw to n central Lake Superior as mid-level
dry slot has rotated across much of the fcst area. However, with
closer approach of the mid-level low, a more showery pcpn regime is
now spreading/developing ne into the sw half of Upper MI.
Fcst thru Thu will revolve around pcpn details, coverage/type, as
center of aforementioned mid-level low drifts into western Upper MI
tonight and then se into WI on Thu. Expect ocnl pcpn thru the
period. Pcpn will be most persistent with greatest coverage across
the western fcst area in the vcnty and just w of sfc troffing that
will extend nne from the sfc low drifting into far western Upper MI
tonight and then into northern WI on Thu. Wetbulb zero heights/fcst
soundings suggest -ra mixing with -sn across the nw half tonight
with likely a change to all snow high terrain of the w. Will then
fight limited daytime heating on Thu, but expect pcpn to remain
rain/snow or snow w with some advancement of snow into the central
as column does cool gradually in the aftn. Wind direction and
resulting upslope will be the most important driver of pcpn
intensity/persistence, and there is uncertainty in that detail. The
upsloping aspect impacts far western portions of Gogebic/Ontonagon
counties most directly. NAM/FV3 are the more aggressive models in
backing winds sufficiently for upsloping to really come into play in
that area, but don`t have much confidence in how the wind fields
will evolve. If winds back sufficiently, there could be several
inches of sloppy/wet snow accumulation in the high terrain closest
to Lake Superior where upsloping would be maximized. For this fcst,
opted for a conservative approach with snow accumulations of an inch
or 2 tonight. There are also indications of a steadier band of pcpn
lifting across the Keweenaw tonight, and should that end up as
mostly or all snow, a few inches of wet snow could accumulate there.
Once again, kept fcst conservative with accumulations there around
an inch. Same as tonight, greatest snow accumulations on Thu will be
in the immediate high terrain just inland from Lake Superior in
western Gogebic/Ontonagon counties. Up to 3 inches will be possible
there as winds will take on a more direct upslope direction as the
day progresses. Otherwise, expect snow accumulations mostly an inch
or less across the w.
Low temperatures tonight will only fall into the low/mid 30s F.
Highs on Thu will range from the low/mid 30s w to the lower 40s F s
central and e.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM EDT WED APR 6 2022
Broad upper level troughing looks to persist across the region
through at least Saturday, at which point upstream mid-upper level
ridging builds from west to east through the Upper Great Lakes. This
should translate into a fairly active period of mostly snow/rain for
our region until the ridge helps to scour out activity by Saturday
afternoon. As the ridge makes its way through the region Sunday,
expect a mostly dry day. Looks like another system could lift
northeast into the region Monday/Tuesday, giving us another shot for
rain/snow.
Starting off Thursday night, a nearly stacked low just on the
other side of the WI/MI stateline will continue to support rain and
snow showers over the region. As we enter into night and dinural
cooling takes over, a period of lake enhanced snow will be possible
while the low meanders southeast Thursday night and early Friday
when it begins to boomerang toward the northeast. Main areas of
accumulation look primarily centered in the upslope regions near
Lake Superior and could amount to 2 to 7 inches of additional snow
accumulation, especially north and northeast of Ironwood and in the
Michigamme Highlands. This wet snow could result in some sloppy and
slushy roadways. As CAA continues and the low starts tracking
northeast and exiting through the day Friday, snow showers will
transition over to lake effect. Hard to say how much snow will be
possible during this period, but an additional 2-4 inches seems
plausible through early Saturday given the saturated profiles,
inversion heights near 4k ft and decent DGZ residence time.
As the incoming ridge builds in Saturday, expect lake effect snow to
end from west to east. The ridge will only stick around briefly and
by Saturday night, expecting southerly WAA to move into the region.
After this, a cold front swinging through Sunday night, with another
low lifting into the Lower Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday could
result in another round of snow/rain for the region. There`s some
uncertainty with how next week will evolve. At this point, it looks
like a subtropical jet moving into the Gulf states with
southwesterly flow aloft over the Plains sets up. Overall it looks
like a couple of moist systems could lift northeast through the
middle-Mississippi River Valley and potentially our region. Guidance
is keen on establishing deep troughing west of the Rockies by the
middle of next week, which will set the stage for another Colorado
low somewhere in the Great Lakes Wed-Fri.
Temps through the period look to oscillate as you`d expect between
systems. Highs Friday and Saturday are expected to be largely in the
30s, with some high 20s possible in the interior west Friday and 40s
south Saturday. Overnight lows look to dip into the 20s with some
near 30F locations by the lakeshores. Warmer airmass moving in
Sunday looks to support widespread upper 40s to low 50s. Lakeshores
though should be moderated by the cooler lakes and should stay
largely in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 753 PM EDT WED APR 6 2022
Poor flying conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF
period as a low pressure system rotates around the UP. Currently,
conditions are ranging from VFR at KIWD to MVFR at KSAW and IFR at
KCMX. However, conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate to
LIFR or even worse at all TAF sites over the next several hours
where they will stay for the duration of the TAF period. Expect
rain to transition to snow at KIWD and KCMX overnight. Meanwhile,
winds will initially be southeasterly at KIWD before shifting to the
north/northeast tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, expect primarily
southeast winds at KSAW before becoming northeasterly tomorrow
afternoon, and east/northeasterly winds at KCMX. Gusts up to 21 kts
will be possible at times mainly tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 342 PM EDT WED APR 6 2022
Slow moving system will linger over the Upper Great Lakes through at
least Friday. With that, expect winds to shift to northeasterly
tonight in the western portions of the lake while the eastern half
remains easterly or southeasterly. Expecting some gales to 40 kts
to mix in across the west while the east primarily stays 20 kts or
less tonight and Thursday. By late Thursday, winds should be
primarily northerly or northeasterly given the low`s anticipated
position southeast of the region. Winds to near 30kt are expected
and some gales may be mixed in. Confidence isn`t high that gales
will persist into Thursday night, but its entirely possible. As
the low pulls away Friday and winds shift to north- northeasterly,
expect winds to gradually fall. Winds are expected to be 20 kts
or less Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ to 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/
Thursday for LSZ162.
Gale Warning from 8 AM Thursday to 3 AM EDT Friday for LSZ263.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JTP
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022
Gusty winds continue to be the primary weather story through
Thursday with gusts tomorrow as high as 55 mph or greater.
A strong and nearly vertically stacked low pressure system
continues to move east into northern Wisconsin with a trough axis
extending into the Missouri River Valley. This system will remain
nearly stationary before ejecting east into the Great Lakes area
Friday night. As our area remains on the backside of the system,
gusty northwest winds seem to be the main weather story along with
passing showers.
Northwest winds will diminish slightly this evening and overnight
but will continue a wind advisory for the northern half of the
CWA where winds should hold steady around 25-35mph. In addition,
have hoisted a High Wind Warning for portions of northeast
Nebraska Thursday where gusts could surpass the criteria of 58 mph
for a few hours during the late morning and early afternoon.
Scattered showers are possible again Thursday late morning and early
afternoon with some potential for snow in far northeast Nebraska
with higher low-level lapse rates and a bit of limited moisture.
HREF probability of 1/2sm visibility and greater than 30mph winds
does paint some areas in northeast Nebraska so will need to watch
for any lower visibilities in falling snow showers. At this time,
a mix of rain and snow is most likely but will continue to watch
this closely. If a longer period of snow is anticipated like the
RAP would indicate, conditions could become quite nasty for a time
in far northeast Nebraska. Again, will continue to monitor this
situation very closely over the next 24 hours. Highs on Thursday
should top out in the lower to mid 40s across much of the area.
A few showers could linger into Friday morning before this system
slowly slides east of the region. Highs are forecast to range
from the low 40s to low 50s across much of the area. Winds on
Friday will still be gusty, but nothing like today and Thursday.
Weak upper level ridging moves overhead on Saturday with return low-
level flow increasing and warming the area into the 50s and lower
60s. With increasing surface winds by late afternoon and low
relative humidities, will need to watch for any fire concerns.
Southwesterly flow increases early next week as troughing digs
across the Rockies. There are still many uncertainties within the
deterministic and ensemble solutions, but the large scale pattern
would favorable a stormy few days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022
Strong northwest winds will remain the primary aviation hazard
through 00Z Friday. The strongest winds are anticipated between
15Z Thursday and 00Z Friday, when peak gusts of 45 to 60 mph are
anticipated. Forecaster confidence in the winds is high. VFR
conditions should prevail prior to 15Z Thursday. After 15Z
Thursday MVFR/IFR conditions and light rain/snow showers should
advance through the region from north to south. Visibilities may
be sharply reduced (1/4 to 3 SM) at times in any snow showers.
Confidence in the reduced visibilities was to low for inclusion in
the TAFs (KOMA, KOFK & KLNK) at this time.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ015-033-034-044-045.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ050>053-
065>067-078-088-089.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ050>053-065>067-
078-088-089.
High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ011-012-
016>018-030>032-042-043.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ011-012-016>018-
030>032-042-043.
IA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for IAZ043-055.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for IAZ056-069.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Albright
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
940 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift into the area tonight, ahead of an area of
low pressure and strong cold front that will cross the region
tonight into Thursday. Low pressure over the Great Lakes will bring
another cold front through central NC Friday night and early
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 PM Wednesday...
Still a complex, low-confidence weather pattern through tonight. The
warm front has lifted through central NC and surface dewpoints
continue to rise, with mid/upper 60s from Charlotte east to Clinton
as of 00Z. A boundary remains over the northern Coastal Plain, with
more easterly/northeasterly flow north of it. An area of showers and
thunderstorms could clip the Sandhills and the southern and central
Coastal Plain areas this evening while an MCS continues to propagate
eastward through GA and SC. To the west, ahead of the cold front and
along the Appalachians, a line of strong to severe storms continues
to progress eastward. Latest mesoanalysis shows the best bulk shear
over the foothills and western Piedmont, while the best instability
is over the southern Piedmont, Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain.
Given the current environment and observations, the biggest threat
for strong storms this evening will be across the southern third of
central NC, with the primary threats being damaging wind and hail.
Later tonight into Thursday morning, the threat shifts west to with
the line of pre-frontal convection moving in from the west and
potentially some re-invigoration of convection along the front
itself as it moves into the area, though the timing is not quite
nailed down yet. Latest HRRR simulations suggest the convection
could move into the Triad around 06Z, with redevelopment possible
around/after daybreak. Temperatures should remain quite mild
tonight, bottoming out in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Wednesday...
...Marginal and Slight Risk of severe storms mainly focused in the
eastern part of Central NC Thursday...
On Thu, the cold front will be located just east of the
Appalachians, with an area of low pressure along NC/VA. Showers may
be ongoing in the morning with extensive cloudiness. Clouds should
decrease ahead of the cold front to allow for highs to reach the
mid/upper 70s to around 80 in the SE. Over the Triad, highs will
only be in the 60s with the front moving through. Redevelopment of
showers and storms are expected in the late morning to afternoon
along and east of US-1, where instability regenerates with dewpoints
in the mid to upper 60s, fueling instability of 1500 to 2000 J/kg of
CAPE. With deep-layer shear still expected, the combination of these
two ingredients will favor damaging winds and large hail as the
primary threats over the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain.
However, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out over the Northern
Coastal Plain where low-level shear is more favorable. The storm
activity should exit the area by the late afternoon as the cold
front slides through. Cold air advection behind the front Thu night
will lead to low temperatures dipping into the lower 40s in the NW
and around 50 in the SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 333 PM Wednesday...
Friday/Saturday: Aloft, an anomalous mid/upper-level trough will
maintain cyclonic flow along the eastern seaboard through early
Sunday. By Friday morning, however, the strongest low-level moisture
transport axis, along with the surface cold front will have shifted
well east of central NC. Chances for rain will therefore remain low
on Friday and Saturday, with perhaps some isolated showers/sprinkles
during each afternoon/evening associated with the passing of a few
short wave disturbances embedded within the cyclonic flow.
Otherwise, models continue to suggest good mixing Friday, with wind
gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible across the region (maybe stronger
depending on cloud cover and how deep we can mix). Low-level
thicknesses are expected to drop Friday as modest CAA follows the
departed cold front. This should set up a cooler day Friday with
highs in the lower 60s northwest to upper 60s in the southeast.
A secondary cold front is expected to push through central NC Friday
night providing some additional cooling. Ensemble guidance suggests
low-level thicknesses may drop as low as ~1330 m early Saturday
morning, or about 15 to 20 m below normal for this time of year.
However, forecast soundings suggest mixing may hold on through late
Friday evening. This, coupled with some passing cloud cover, will
limit lows in the mid to upper 30s (northwest) to low to mid 40s
(southeast). Highs on Saturday will remain cool generally in the mid
50s northwest to lower 60s southeast. Below normal low temperatures
(mid to upper 30s) are forecast again on Sunday morning, potentially
nearing frost criteria for western portions of central NC. While
confidence is still lacking a bit at this forecast update,
conditions do seem favorable enough to at least warrant the mention
of possible patchy frost across the western Piedmont early Sunday
morning. Future forecast shifts will need to monitor and perhaps
consider frost/freeze products.
Sunday through Wednesday: A mid-level ridge builds back across the
eastern U.S. Sunday ushering in increasing heights aloft over
central NC. At the surface, high pressure located over the deep
south will migrate over the southeast through Monday, and then
offshore by mid-week. This pattern will promote dry conditions
Sunday through Tuesday with a warming trend as flow at the surface
turns more west/southwesterly. Highs on Sunday will still be a bit
cooler in the 60s, but should warm into the 70s Monday, and then
near the 80s by Tuesday/Wednesday. The area will also start to see a
rebound of dewpoints into the mid to upper 50s as southerly fetch
off the Atlantic increases along the western ridge of the offshore
high. Consequently, models suggest marginal upglide along the 300K
isentropic surface Wednesday afternoon, which may act to produce
some light rain showers especially across the western Piedmont.
Thus, have maintained slight chance of rain widely, with the best
chance of rain across the far western Piedmont Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...
24 hour TAF period: Very low confidence TAF forecast. If, when and
where showers/storms will occur from now through Thursday morning
are difficult to figure out. Do expect some showers/storms to lift
northward through central NC with outflow from a storm system over
GA/SC this evening. However, there is also a chance few or no
showers/storms will occur at all through tonight at any given
terminal. Even the cig forecast is tough, as there is a good signal
for sub-VFR conditions (possibly intermittent to start), but how low
and for how long is in question. Best guess is MVFR/IFR spreading
over all terminals at some point tonight. There is a better chance
of showers and storms to move through the area Thursday morning
ahead of a cold front, with the usual decrease in vsbys and increase
in winds expected. Storms could be strong to severe Thursday,
especially in the aft/eve at the eastern 3 terminals. Improvement to
VFR should begin toward the end of the TAF period from the west. -KC
Looking ahead: Some forecast soundings are hinting at the
possibility for a brief period of fog at KRDU and KRWI Fri night,
but otherwise VFR should prevail. Some gusty winds in VFR
sprinkles/showers will be possible Fri. VFR conditions will prevail
Sat through Mon. -KC/Kren
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Luchetti/JT
AVIATION...KC/Kren