Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/06/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
920 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
Latest look at web cams across the Glacial Lakes region shows rain
has changed to snow in those slightly higher elevations. It
appears temps are around 34 degrees when changeover occurs, which
is actually about 1 to 3 hours sooner than what RAP soundings are
showing. Elsewhere, still rain as temps are more into the upper
30s to around 40 degrees. Made some adjustments to POPs/wx grids
to account for current trends. Still appears the main area of
precip will stay across the eastern CWA overnight, with most areas
having switched to snow by daybreak. Although, it appears there
will eventually be an area of rain/snow, possibly changing to all
snow by morning, that will rotate southward across central SD
overnight. Already evidence of this across ND.
As for winds, after looking at observations at 01Z, and examining
guidance along with NBM90/NBMEXP wind speeds overnight, decided to
expand a portion of the wind advisory across central SD through
the overnight hours. This will run up to 12Z when the high wind
warning goes into effect. Observations at 02Z still showing gusts
from 45 to 55 mph across the Missouri River valley region. Also
decided to upgrade the high wind watch for the eastern CWA to a
warning to better match surrounding offices, and in anticipation
of these winds materializing tomorrow.
UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
Low pressure is currently situated over far northeastern South
Dakota/west central Minnesota, with a band of precipitation behind
it tracking across the central and eastern portions of the CWA late
this afternoon into the early evening hours. The low will move over
Minnesota this evening, then intensifies slightly as it spins in a
nearly stationary position tonight before drifting eastward to
Wisconsin on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Will see a fairly tight
pressure gradient develop on the back side of the system Wednesday
and Wednesday night, along with the potential for precipitation
wrapping over the area, especially across the eastern part of the
CWA. Sustained winds in the 25 to 40 mph range with gusts up to 60
appear likely. A High Wind Warning goes into effect Wednesday
morning across the western part of the area, with a High Wind Watch
across the east. The next question then becomes whether or not
temperatures cool enough for the precipitation to change over to
snow, which certainly looks to be possible late tonight into
Wednesday morning, then again late Wednesday night, especially over
the far eastern part of the area along the Sisseton Hills region.
Another challenge is with any snowfall likely being of the wet heavy
type, will it be able to blow enough to result in reduced
visibility? With the strength of the winds we are anticipating, will
go ahead and mention some patchy blowing snow. Snowfall amounts do
not look to be terribly significant anywhere except along the higher
elevations of the Coteau, where an inch or so is possible tonight,
and again Wednesday night.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 30s, with highs
Wednesday in the upper 30s to the upper 40s. Lows Wednesday night
will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
The long range forecast starts off with the strong surface low that
continues to push east, along with its upper level parts. It will be
quite windy on Thursday before winds start to diminish by Friday.
Otherwise, dry weather Friday and Saturday with slight chances of
rain Sunday across the western CWA as a front pushes through. More
widespread chances of precip early next week with another system
forming and pushing across the Midwest. The main concern in the long
term will be the continuing windy conditions Thursday and Thursday
night.
Clusters/GEFS/ECMWF ENS indicate the mid-level low to our east and
its associated deep trough over much of the central parts of the
country on Thursday. Due to the deep trough, a highly amplified
ridge dominates the western parts of the United States. This ridge
will push east over our area Friday afternoon through early Monday
with another upper level trough deepening across the western part of
the United States early next week. Surface map by 12Z Thursday
indicates the 994mb surface low, with the center of the low over
WI/MI border, and a high pressure system to our west over the
Rockies. Precipitation wise, the deterministic models/CAMs indicate
snow will continue across the eastern/northeastern CWA, on the
backside of the low, Thursday into early Friday. The ECMWF model
seems to be the quickest with the precip moving out between 6-12Z.
Additional snow accumulations likely Thursday morning, especially
along the Coteau where another inch or so could fall, otherwise
everywhere else in the eastern/northeastern CWA should see an
additional dusting to a half inch. Another clipper/trough swinging
down from Canada will move into Northern Plains/Upper Midwest
Saturday into Sunday. NBM indicates slight chances of pops Sunday
afternoon into Monday. Another surface low forms in the central
parts of the Midwest bringing more chances of precip in the form of
rain for Tuesday, with a little bit of snow possible early Tuesday
morning.
Winds will continue to be the main concern for Thursday. The deeper
the low, the stronger the pressure gradients will be around the
system. This is backed up by ECMWF EFI that indicates 0.95 for wind
speed and gusts. GFS Bufkit sounding shows the classic "inverted V"
up to around 800mb. With steep temperature lapse rates and strong
momentum transfer, this will lead to a continuing mixing of the
surface and winds above it. I did continue with the NBM90/NBM4.1 for
Thursday into early Friday morning for winds and wind gusts. With an
incoming high in the western CWA, winds will diminish quite a bit
and the pressure gradient becomes gentler by Friday.
Ensembles Thickness charts indicates we will continue with CAA as
winds at the surface and aloft will be out of the northwest Thursday
then north early Friday. Highs across the CWA for Thursday will be
in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s. As the ridge moves in, WAA
moves in by 18Z Friday from the west, causing for a little bit of a
warmup and surface winds shifting out of the east/southeast. With
the ridge overhead for the weekend, temps will warm up into the 50s
and lower 60s. The next trough with CAA moves in Monday afternoon
bringing a cooldown to our temps.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs across the region to start off the TAF
period, with -RA affecting KABR/KATY, but having little impact on
VSBY. Through the overnight and daytime Wednesday, expect more
widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs to overspread the area. Will also see
precipitation over KABR/KATY likely changing to -SN/SN, but may
mix in with -RA/RA at times. VSBY will be lowered in areas of SN
and strong winds. Over KMBG/KPIR, precip still expected, but may
be more scattered in nature, so only VC mention at this time, but
there are hints of steadier precip over central SD at times
overnight. Will watch radar trends and amend as needed. Other
story is the very strong and gusty northwest surface winds through
the TAF period. During the day Wednesday, gusts over 50 knots are
not out of the question.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Wednesday to 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ Thursday for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-
051.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Wednesday for SDZ003-015-
016-033>035-045-048.
MN...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...TMT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
903 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
Strong cold front continues to push south across the forecast area,
with gusty N-NW winds for most locations except extreme SE KS. Most
of the surface based instability has dropped south of the forecast
area into NE OK, but some lingering elevated instability, around 500-
1000 J/KG, continues to linger over SE KS. Latest short range RAP
doesn`t show alot of low level moisture transport over the top of
the shallow post frontal air, so having my doubts on whether areas
east of the KS Turnpike will see any showers or storms late this
evening. But with the lingering instability still around and some of
the high rez CAMS showing a chance of post frontal showers, will
keep some pops across SE KS for a few more hours. Think chances will
diminish or end after 06z.
Ketcham
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
There is a narrow/very conditional window for convection along
the cold front early this evening in far southeast Kansas, though
despite modest instability, strong shear would support a locally
strong storm. Some post-frontal elevated convection seems possible
though associated with cooling aloft late in the evening aided by
lift/forcing from the approaching PV anomaly and some mid-level
frontogenesis. Otherwise, the main story into Wednesday and
Thursday will be the strong, deeply mixed, nearly unidirectional
northwesterly flow regime across the area on the backside of the
deepening low evolving across the Great Lakes. A very dry airmass
characterized by steep/dry adiabatic lapse rates up through
680-700 mb will support a solid Wind Advisory along/west of the
Kansas turnpike and High Wind Warning for the higher terrain of
Russell/Barton counties. See Fire Weather section for details on
wildfire concerns. It looks to remain a bit windy/breezy into
Friday as well with temperatures averaging below climo for the
latter part of the week.
Darmofal
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
The medium range supports a return to milder southerly flow on
Saturday with transient ridging aloft across the area between the
departing eastern conus trof and upstream low/trof over western
Canada into the far northwest conus. The latest trends support
more agressive troughing across the western conus into early next
week, especially the ECMWF, with an eventual frontal boundary
sagging southward into the area. Exactly how this plays out with
regard to precip/convective chances and temperature trends is
still uncertain, though there is potential for a more active
weather pattern even just beyond day 7.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
A strong cold front currently moving into SE KS at this time, has
led to a wind shift to the NW for most locations. Lagging behind the
cold front by about an hour or so, are much stronger NW winds, with
wind gusts of 35 to 40 kts. Portions of central KS are already
seeing the higher gusts, with KICT and KCNU expected to see an
increase in winds over the next couple of hours.
To the east of the front, over the Flint Hills, an uncapped
environment and limited instability may lead to the development of a
stray SHRA or TSRA for the evening hours, as convergence along the
front increases. Given the marginal instability think the TSRA
chance will be isolated in nature, but could affect the KCNU taf
location. So will go with a VCTS mention for the evening hours
across SE KS.
Strong and gusty winds will continue return for Wed, with NW winds
expected to gust to 40 to 45 kts for the afternoon hours.
Ketcham
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
** Extreme Fire Danger expected Wednesday and Thursday **
A few hours of very high grassland fire danger is likely late this
afternoon behind a cold front across portions of central Kansas,
along and northwest of a Lincoln to Great Bend line.
However, extreme grassland fire danger is expected on Wednesday
afternoon across central and south central Kansas, with potential
for catastrophic fire danger for locations along and west of a
Lincoln to Hutchinson line. Northwest winds are expected to gust
over 50 mph with lowest daytime humidity values around 20 percent.
Strong northwest winds are expected again on Thursday with
critical fire danger possible again.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 40 63 39 58 / 20 0 0 0
Hutchinson 39 62 37 57 / 20 0 0 0
Newton 39 61 38 56 / 20 0 0 0
ElDorado 40 62 39 57 / 30 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 40 64 39 59 / 20 0 0 0
Russell 38 59 35 57 / 20 0 0 0
Great Bend 38 60 35 57 / 10 0 0 0
Salina 38 61 37 57 / 20 10 0 0
McPherson 38 61 36 56 / 20 0 0 0
Coffeyville 43 65 39 59 / 50 0 0 0
Chanute 42 64 39 57 / 50 10 0 0
Iola 41 63 39 56 / 50 10 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 43 64 39 58 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for KSZ032-033-047>051-067-068-082-083-091-092.
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ033-048>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.
High Wind Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-047.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...KED
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
926 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Threatening weather is expected this evening with isolated
tornadoes and scattered severe thunderstorms over SE NC.
Thursday brings the possibility of strong to severe
thunderstorms once again. Temperatures will cool down late
Thursday into this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Numerous damage points likely to warrant NWS storm surveys
Wednesday, as debris ball and trees down near and upstream of
Aynor SC were noted. Tornado Watch 99 for NE SC has been
cancelled but still in effect a bit longer over our SE NC
zones.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Complex weather scenario unfolding at this time. A low amplitude but
well defined shortwave is approaching from the west. Low level wind
response has been strong across the southeast with southerly flow
increasing in the lowest levels. The low amplitude aloft however
will yield significant veering with height and strongly cyclonically
curved hodographs in the 0-2km layer with SRH values rising to 500
m^2/s^2 this evening. With regards to severe weather then, shear
will NOT be lacking. Instability is the main forecast uncertainty
with this event. Cloud cover has obviously become widespread and
strong insolation is not expected. Surface trough and warm front now
roughly stalled along the Savannah River appear key. Should this
boundary advance north as anticipated then 500-1000 J/Kg of MLCAPE
should manage to develop over southern and eastern zones. The WRF
has almost 500 J/Kg more but is a slow outlier. The HRRR also
has a weak mesoscale low along the warm front that backs surface
winds just ahead of the feature, which would make this event
have shades of 3/15/08 (though shifted just a bit south). The
nearly zonal mid level flow will cause the system to translate
east through the area rapidly, likely winding up offshore by 03Z
or so, the remainder of the night remaining rain-free.
Frontal boundary trailing from the exiting primary low from today`s
system will have another wave of low pressure develop along its
length Wednesday and moderate rains will spread northeastward
across the region once again. Wind fields strengthen once again
though not to the magnitude of this afternoon/evening event.
Once again then instability will be the main factor modulating
our chances for another round of severe weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An approaching cold front will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the area through the period. Severe threat
looks somewhat marginal as instability generally looks to be
lacking outside of daylight hours and wind fields aren`t
particularly impressive. There is some dry air forecast to be
present in the midlevels which could serve to enhance severe
potential though. Mins Wednesday night will fall to the mid 60s
with highs Thursday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Cold front
moves off the coast Thursday night bringing an end to rain and
dropping mins to the upper 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cool and dry weather will arrive Fri as a deep upper trough
traverses across the eastern CONUS. Dry air will wrap into the
area Fri and temperatures will struggle to get to 70, despite
abundant sunshine. Fair weather is expected through the
remainder of the period with a gradual warmup after temperatures
bottom out Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dangerous flight conditions as low level shear and severe TSTMs
rake NE SC and SE NC this evening before moving offshore after
4z. Isolated tornadoes are possible through early portion of TAF
cycle to 4z. Aft 4z, WSW-SW winds 11-15 kt remainder of TAF
cycle. Otherwise IFR/MVFR conditions through TAF period as low
level clouds are expected in wake of severe weather tonight.
Extended Outlook...Another system Wednesday night through
Thursday will likely bring additional flight category
restrictions.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Prefrontal southerly flow regime to become
supportive of supportive of advisory conditions this evening
into tonight. Advisory conditions may linger longer than the
current 15Z exp time but did not make any changes at this time
given low confidence and the impending severe weather. FROPA
will not be a very clean one as another low will be approaching
on another boundary, so winds will remain southwesterly as
opposed to veering much behind this first system.
Wednesday night through Sunday...expect SW winds of 15 to 20 KT
Wednesday night into Thursday before winds become more westerly
Thursday night. West to Northwest winds are on tap Friday
through Sunday at similar speeds. Seas will generally run 3 to 5
ft with 6 footers possible at times nearer 20 NM into Saturday.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...31/MBB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1144 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 944 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022
Going forecast is in excellent shape this evening and requires no
significant adjustment.
Precipitation associated with a wave of low pressure that passed to
our south earlier today has exited the area, and additional upstream
precipitation associated with a second, stronger low pressure system
over the upper Midwest and an accompanying cold front will move into
the area later tonight. A rumble of thunder or two cannot be
entirely ruled out in portions of the area, thanks to some very weak
elevated instability, but the steadily less supportive thermodynamic
environment with eastward extent should limit this threat and also
prevent any threat of stronger storms, as are currently ongoing
along the cold front near the Mississippi River.
Temperatures should remain nearly steady or decline only slightly
overnight, and going forecast handles this well, comparing favorably
to both LAMP and HRRR guidance. Expect upper 40s or near 50 for lows
across the area tonight.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022
Early this afternoon, an upper wave across the Ohio Valley was
bringing showers to much of the forecast area. Drier air is sneaking
in from the southwest though. A large upper low was across portions
of North Dakota and Montana, with a surface low and cold front to
the southeast of that area.
The upper wave will continue to push northeast during the rest of
the afternoon, as the drier air also tries to work in from the
southwest as well. Thus expect rain coverage to move northeast and
diminish in coverage as the afternoon progresses. Will continue high
PoPs where needed with chance PoPs elsewhere.
By 00Z, only a few showers are expected across mainly the northern
forecast area as most forcing will have exited. Most of the evening
will be dry with central Indiana in between systems. However,
overnight, 850mb winds increase to near 50kt, bringing in more
moisture to the area. The surface cold front will work its way into
the area late tonight as well. Isentropic lift ahead of the front
along with lift from the front itself, combined with the plentiful
moisture, will lead to high PoPs across roughly the western half of
central Indiana by 12Z.
Some fog is possible overnight thanks to a moist atmosphere, mainly
east ahead of the rain associated with the cold front. However, the
atmosphere looks to be fairly turbulent, so believe stratus would be
more likely than widespread fog. Will add some patchy fog mention
east overnight.
The aforementioned forcing will continue to march across central
Indiana during the first half of Wednesday, leading to likely or
higher PoPs all areas during the first half of the day. Forcing will
shift east during the afternoon, and drier air will work in from the
west behind the front. PoPs will diminish from west to east during
the afternoon, with dry conditions most areas by 21Z.
Instability will be pretty meager by the front arrives later tonight
and as it pushes through on Wednesday. However, can`t rule out an
isolated thunderstorm, mainly south.
A secondary cold front will move in Wednesday night as the upper low
gets closer. However, this front won`t have any moisture to work
with, so will continue a dry forecast for then.
Seasonable temperatures will continue through the short term, before
the cold air arrives.
&&
.Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022
Thursday-Saturday will feature a broad, deep, stacked cut-off trough
slowly spin from the upper Mid-West to southeastern Canada. Yet,
most of the day Thursday should be pleasant, albeit cool for early
April...with latest guidance continuing to show central Indiana
under rather brief partial clearing courtesy of the wide trough`s
lone dry conveyor...before this drier patch departs into Ohio in the
PM hours. An elongated tail of vorticity spilling over the amplified
Pacific coast upper ridge...will become embedded in the periphery of
the central CONUS trough, further amplifying the overall circulation
while this embedded wave progresses into the southeastern US by late
week. This will temporarily serve to wobble the circulation`s cold
core further south into the southern Great Lakes. Persistently
cloudy, damp conditions from Thursday night onward will include
scattered drizzle and occasional light rain...and probably also a
mixture with wet snowflakes, especially near and north of the I-70
corridor, and more distinctively at night when the cooler boundary
layer will support more snow reaching the surface. No impacts are
expected as persistent westerly or WSW flow should keep the CWA
above 32F until precipitation tapers off around early Saturday.
Precipitation totals will be light, with modest variations dependent
on where the upper trough`s embedded vort maxs stir up a bit more
lift. Sub-seasonal temperatures will be led by daytime maximums
about 15 degrees below normal.
Saturday night-Monday will start dry through at least the middle of
the weekend...before a new unsettled pattern emerges with a cold
front slowly crossing Indiana through the early week. Best chances
for rain appear to be the Monday-Monday night timeframe as a ribbon
of Gulf moisture combines with lift along the arriving front. So far
guidance suggests precipitable water values near 1.00-1.25 inches
for most of the CWA during a 12-24 hour period within this
timeframe...which will bring the potential for additional moderate
rainfall totals. While low-level shear would be great enough to
promote widespread convection by the end of this Mon-Mon night
timeframe, instability so far appears insufficient to favor
organized thunderstorms. Starting Sunday...moderate southerly
breezes will promote temperatures trending from slightly below
normal to above normal. The normal max/min for the long term period
at Indianapolis is 62/41.
&&
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1143 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022
IMPACTS:
* VFR conditions at all but BMG, which is IFR, will deteriorate back
to MVFR and then IFR later tonight into Wednesday morning as a
cold front approaches.
* Showers will return to the area along and ahead of the front.
* Winds will strengthen and veer to the south and then west with
frontal passage. Gustiness to near 20KT will be possible late
tonight, with additional gustiness to near 25KT possible from the
west Wednesday during the day.
* VFR returns late Wednesday.
DISCUSSION:
Another low pressure system and cold front will move into the area
late tonight into Wednesday morning, bringing widespread showers and
restricting ceilings and occasionally visibilities at times through
mid afternoon Wednesday. At least a few hour period of IFR ceilings
is likely at all sites late tonight into Wednesday morning, with
conditions then improving to MVFR post front, then VFR mid to late
Wednesday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out but
are far too low probability and coverage for mention in the TAF.
Winds will be southeasterly or southerly early in the period around
10-15KT, with a few gusts to near 20KT possible a bit later in the
night. Winds will veer to the west as the front passes, weakening to
around 8-12KT before additional gustiness and some strengthening of
sustained winds occurs a bit later in the day Wednesday. Gusts will
approach 25KT with sustained winds again 10-15KT Wednesday
afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Update...Nield
Short Term...50
Long Term...AM
Aviation...Nield
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
959 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A much quieter night weatherwise is unfolding as rain chances have
ended in the southeast and dry weather is expected much of the
night but there still remains low chances that rain will move back
into our northwest before sunrise. Satellite imagery showed a
potent shortwave dropping over the central Plains that will
approach our northwest Wednesday morning and help develop the
rain. Otherwise, much warmer than normal temperatures are expected
to continue tonight and only bottom our in the mid to upper 60s at
most locations. /22/
Prior discussion below:
Tonight through next Monday...
Tonight through Wednesday: In the wake of the severe weather
episode this morning, deep moisture has been drying out but low-
level moisture hasn`t been fully cleared out. This will lead to a
gradual decrease in rain or any limited convection across the Hwy
84 corridor with waning of daytime heating. S stream trough axis,
per RAP analysis, is centered across far S TX & will slowly eject
to the E-NE into the overnight hours. With increased ascent from
approaching suppressed wave into the overnight to mid-morning
hours & N stream trough/frontal zone digging to the SE over the
mid- upper MS Valley & Great Lakes, moisture will remain. Sfc
dewpoints will remain in the mid-upper 60s, with some lower 70s
possible into Wed across areas along & SE of the Natchez Trace.
Even with limited deep moisture, low- level Theta-E (i.e.
+330-335K) will keep moisture up as no airmass change has
occurred. With widespread cloudiness & high moisture, lows will
remain well above climo into the mid-upper 60s. With continued
Theta-E advection & ascent/divergence from upper jet, some rain &
storm chances will increase into Wed. Rain will remain at minimum
overnight before increasing closer to the frontal convergence by
mid-morning in the Delta & more diurnal SE of the Natchez Trace
corridor into the aftn hours. /DC/
With increased broad bulk shear approaching 40-50kts in the 0-3km
& 0-6km layers, this will support potential multicell & splitting
cell development. Kept graphic mostly the same, outside of a small
expansion of the marginal to W closer to Natchez Trace, per some
indications in the CAMs. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.0
C/km continue to indicate isolated large hail potential of quarter
to golf ball size & some decent cold pool/gusty wind potential.
This remains highly conditional, but trends in recent guid support
this. The highest threat will be along & SE of the Natchez Trace
& into the I-59 to Hwy 45 corridors. Along the front moving into
the Delta, winds will continue to veer & most precipitation looks
to remain anafrontal.
Tomorrow night through early next week (Monday): Much quieter
pattern will persist through the weekend. Mean synoptic trough
axis, dry air & subsidence/high pressure will stall over the
region & only slowly drift E. This will be in response to deep
ridging over the N-central Atlantic. Cool & dry conditions will
persist late week (i.e. Thurs - Fri) with highs in the upper 60s-
low 70s Thurs to low-mid 60s Fri, as NW flow & CAA persist. Lows
will be below climo in the mid-upper 40s Wed night, low-mid 40s
Thurs night & coolest Fri night as the trough axis pulls away &
any pressure gradient relaxes. Lows could fall into the mid-upper
30s & patchy frost couldn`t be ruled out. As ridge axis build E
across the central Plains into next weekend & S return flow
commences, WAA & gradual moderation of temperatures is expected
(i.e. high temps into the mid 60s-low 70s Sat to upper 70s-low
80s Sun.) Conditions will remain dry through the weekend, before
increased moisture, rain chances & potential stormy period is
anticipated into next week. Stay tuned. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
MVFR cigs wl continue in the se this evening while VFR conditions
prevail elsewhere until after 06Z. After 06Z cigs are expected to
lower to IFR. IFR cigs wl prevail at most TAF sites until after
15Z and then improve to MVFR. MVFR cigs wl prevail through the end
of the TAF period. A cold front wl move in vcty of GLH by 14Z and
then progress through the rest of the area through the aftn. A
period of -RA/-SHRA wl accompany the frontal passage. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 66 81 46 68 / 4 60 13 0
Meridian 65 84 46 69 / 9 59 35 0
Vicksburg 67 79 46 69 / 4 46 6 0
Hattiesburg 68 85 50 72 / 8 53 28 0
Natchez 68 81 46 69 / 4 36 7 0
Greenville 64 72 46 65 / 5 32 6 0
Greenwood 65 75 45 65 / 5 36 6 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
22/DC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1002 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
The main forecast challenge through midweek revolves around the
powerful storm system crossing the Great Plains. Associated weather
concerns include fire conditions, high winds, and precipitation
chances.
This evening into tonight... The low pressure (both at the surface
and aloft) at the center of the storm stalls over the Upper Midwest.
This pattern places western Nebraska squarely in north/northwest
flow. Maximized frontogenetical forcing at H5-7 combined with a
ribbon of mid-level moisture is resulting in batches of quick-moving
light rain showers today. Forecast soundings indicate a mixed layer
to at least H7, which is reducing the moisture to sprinkles if
anything. Expect this trend to continue into the evening and early
overnight hours. Made no changes to the Red Flag Warning as the
surge of very dry air at the surface as arrived from the west.
Hourly dew point changes of 10+ degrees have been observed in the
panhandle. Humidity recovery will be very slow tonight, especially
for southwest Nebraska. Toward the pre-dawn timeframe, a weak
surface boundary (cool front?) approaches the SoDak/Neb border. This
extra forcing in the lower levels and perhaps some near surface
moisture pooling may be enough to spark a few showers along/north of
Hwy 20. Thinking coverage will be isolated at best through 12z.
Thermal profiles suggest either rain/snow mix or all snow as lows
range from the upper 20s to mid 30s. As for the wind, the strong
northwest gusts of 45+ mph will continue through the evening, then
weaken somewhat overnight. The main PV anomaly will be out of the
forecast area by 03z, and RAP forecast soundings suggest enough wind
shear to lower the potential for high winds overnight. Can`t rule
out some sporadic higher gusts as H85 flow stays near 50 kts. Made
no change to High Wind Warning.
Wednesday and Wed night... The surface boundary pushes through the
forecast area midday, with the greatest potential for moisture being
near and behind the front. Maintained chc PoP (and some lkly early)
across the Sandhills where mid-level moisture is highest and H5-7
temps are coolest for steeper lapse rates. Thermal profiles suggest
snow to start with the vast majority of the column below 0C and some
saturation in the DGZ. However, surface temps near or just below
freezing will cut down on SLR`s and therefore limit accumulation.
Nevertheless, a dusting (1/2") or so is possible for Sheridan and
Cherry Counties. During the afternoon, coverage should become more
showery in nature and scattered, in addition to a switch to rain for
the main precip type. For southwest Nebraska, soundings keep more of
an inverted-V profile and very dry air below H7. Left areas south of
I-80 dry for now and introduced the threat of blowing dust. Still
have good confidence in reaching high wind criteria with H85 flow at
least 50 kts and a forecast mixed layer to near H7. Soundings
indicate nearly unidirectional northwest flow from the surface to
H4. In addition, surface pressure changes may exceed 1 mb/hr as the
main surface low starts to drift more toward the Great Lakes. Nearly
all guidance shows the axis of highest winds near the southern
panhandle and far southwest Nebraska, which lines up with downslope
off the Cheyenne Divide. Gusts to 65 mph are expected there, and
perhaps sporadic readings of 70 mph. Across the Sandhills, gusts
should reach 60 mph at times, and be possibly enhanced in/around any
rain shower. For max temps, stayed close to the NBM mean, which also
falls near MOS guidance. With weak CAA underway at H85 as shown by
drops of 2 to 4C compared to today, highs should range from the
upper 40s in northwest Neb to lower 50s elsewhere. Precipitation
chances wane and stay confined to the Pine Ridge area and far
northern Nebraska after sunset. Winds also decrease overnight as a
weak nocturnal inversion develops and H85 flow weakens slightly.
Used a general model blend for min temps, resulting in mid to upper
20s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
The extended period remains very active with the deep low pressure
meandering across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Another round of high
winds is possible for western Nebraska with H85 flow near 50 kts and
another PV anomaly crossing the area. Kept the High Wind Warning in
place for all counties through 9PM CDT. Soundings suggest a deep
mixed layer to near H7 once again but with less available moisture
to support precip chances. Blowing dust will be possible for areas
south of Hwy 2, where any moisture the last couple days was the most
spotty. Max temps will be fairly similar to Wed with values in the
40s and lower 50s. Friday into the weekend, a progressive and rather
amplified ridge builds onto the Plains and pushes the deep trough to
the East Coast. The result for western Nebraska is a quick warming
trend with highs moderating into the 70s for Saturday. Fair skies,
lower humidity, and yet still breezy (south) winds will keep fire
weather concerns high. The upper ridge breaks down on Sunday and a
surface cool front swings through the area, which extends the fire
weather threat, but then introduces moisture chances late Sunday
into Monday. Beyond Monday, the long range guidance is trying to key
in on better precipitation for the region, including both rain and
snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
Very windy this TAF period.
Expect northwesterly winds gusting at or above 40kt through
sunset, followed by some lessening early tonight. Another surge of
wind works down form the north late tonight with wind gusts at or
above 40kt once again at KVTN by 08Z and KLBF by 09Z. After
daybreak expect mixing will result in wind gusts at or above 50kt
throughout the latter portion of the valid period. Vsby
restriction due to blowing dust may accompany the gusty winds.
Expect some lower cigs and precipitation will accompany the surge
of wind late tonight with MVFR/IFR cigs in snow showers at KVTN by
12Z. Cigs look to remain VFR at KLBF with showers in the vicinity.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 426 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
A powerful storm system crossing the Great Plains will be the
focus for fire weather concerns the next several days.
This evening and tonight... A Red Flag Warning continues for all
zones through 10 PM CDT tonight as a late surge of very dry air
arrives from the west. Northwest winds will continue to gust 40+
mph through sunset and 25+ mph after dark. A few sprinkles cannot
be ruled out from quickly passing batches of mid-level clouds, but
no appreciable moisture is expected. If anything, the evaporating
rain showers will result in briefly stronger winds. Overnight,
humidity recovery will be very poor for areas along and south of
Highway 2, where values will struggle to reach 50 percent. To the
north, a cool front will provide extra cloud cover and an
additional chance of light precipitation overnight. Wednesday and
Thursday, humidity values will be high enough to preclude any
headlines. However, the wind will be more than strong enough to
support rapid and uncontrollable fire spread. Friday and
Saturday, the potential for red flag conditions increases as
temperatures increase, humidity decreases, sky clears out, and
winds remain gusty. Speeds will approach 35 mph each day with
Friday out of the northwest and Saturday out of the southwest.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for NEZ004-
005-022>025-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.
High Wind Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 9 PM CDT Thursday for
NEZ006>010-026>029-038.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...MBS
FIRE WEATHER...Snively
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
915 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
Monitoring severe potential for the overnight hours in the WFO PAH
forecast area.
Main concern overnight would be an increase in lightning coverage
and some potential for small to near severe hail. Severe wind
potential appears marginal, but some winds may briefly get into
the 30-45 mph range along and near the cold frontal passage
overnight.
The HRRR guidance suggests there maybe an uptick in thunderstorms
development over our southeast Missouri counties between 1am and
2am with a minor surface wave developing along the surface frontal
boundary moving through central Missouri at this time. This
activity will persist and continue into west Kentucky by 4am,
persisting until 10 am in the remainder of west Kentucky.
Although low level instability is very meager, HRRR MUCAPEs (most
unstable CAPE) of 140-150 J/kg advect into the southeast part of
southeast Missouri between 1 AM and 3 AM, working into and through
the west Kentucky Purchase area between 3 and 7 am, the across the
west Kentucky Pennyrile between 7 am and 10 am Wednesday morning.
With mid level (700-500 mb) lapse rates near 6C/km during the 1am
to 10 am time frame immediately ahead of the cold front, along
with rather decent updraft helicities/vertical velocites,
anticpate there will likely be some organized updraft/downdrafts
with any thunderstorms along the line.
With SPC`s expansion of the Marginal Risk area into the WFO PAH
CWA this evening, cannot rule out isolated strong to severe
potential with the thunderstorms, especially between 1am and 4am.
A little less confident of severe coverage after 4am, but
lightning potential may continue through 10 am, especially over
the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
A surface low is positioned over Tennessee this afternoon and will
lift northeastward through tonight. As it does so, rain will quickly
depart our KY counties by late afternoon. Skies have cleared and
allowed temperatures to spike into the mid to upper 60s for a good
chunk of the region. Where the rain/clouds have been slow to clear,
temperatures are still holding in the mid 50s in the KOWB/KHOP areas.
After a brief dry period this evening, a cold front will move
southeastward across the cwa tonight into tomorrow morning. A band
of rain will accompany it. Given the timing, there isn`t much
instability to work with, but the HREF guidance indicates some
MUCAPE present for a few storms. This is most likely for areas along
and south of a KCGI to Madisonville, KY line. SPC has a marginal
risk up to our western border, which coincides to where the
instability drop off will occur as the convection moves in after
midnight.
Some lingering showers will persist into Wednesday morning, but most
of the region will be dry by afternoon (except possibly the KY
Pennyrile). The primary surface low associated with the cold frontal
passage will continue to slowly churn across the upper Midwest/Great
Lakes through Friday. A secondary boundary will move through our
area Wednesday night (with no associated precip), and will bring in
a cooler airmass for Thursday. Waves of energy will begin to rotate
southward from the primary upper low on Thursday and may lead to a
few scattered showers in our far northern counties by later
afternoon. However, most guidance keeps the activity just north of
us, so have kept the current forecast dry through 00z Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
A very deep and closed off upper level low pressure system will
be rotating south and then east through the lower Great Lakes
region Thursday night through Saturday. Short wave energy
swinging around this system will bring plenty of clouds,
unseasonably chilly temps and some scattered rain or snow showers
to north/east portions of the forecast region late Thursday night
into early Friday. The main impact though will come with the
rather blustery and chilly conditions, with gusty west to
northwest winds and high temperatures only in the 40s to lower 50s
Friday.
A warming trend will then get underway over the weekend as the
upper low moves off to the east and a surface ridge of high
pressure moves through the area. In fact, after highs in the 50s
Saturday, a quick switch to increasing southerly flow on Sunday
should push afternoon temps into the upper 60s to lower half of
the 70s.
Mid level flow will become a bit more swly early next week as a
cold front approaches the region from the nw. Not sure this front
will make it through the forecast area, but it should serve to
bring the next chance for scattered showers, possibly even a few
thunderstorms by Tuesday. Temps should stay on the warm side,
with most locations reaching the lower 70s both days.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 547 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
With the departure of on system, VFR conditions will dominate from
the start of the forecast period to the 06-10z Wednesday time
period, as MVFR ceilings develop along and ahead of the
approaching cold front. Any IFR ceilings will likely be limited
to a roughly two hour period before and after the frontal passage,
which should cover the 09z-13z Wednesday time frame across all of
the TAF sites.
Anticipate most visibilities will remain above four statute miles,
except in the vicinity of thunderstorms, but that potential should
diminish after 18z Wednesday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
932 PM MDT Tue Apr 5 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM MDT Tue Apr 5 2022
Per 00z high res data, and in collaboration with neighboring
offices to the north, have expanded Red Flag Warnings and High
Wind Warnings in time to begin at 9 AM instead of 11 AM. Signals
in high res models suggest an increase in winds as mixing sets in
between 9 AM and 10 AM across northeast portions of the area with
dew points now drier in latest set of runs. This would bode for an
earlier start to Red Flag and High Wind Warnings. Update will be
out shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Tue Apr 5 2022
Key Messages:
1) Cool front slowly pushing west-southwest across the western
sections of the southeast plains.
2) Strong winds still ongoing across all of the region.
3) Another Red Flag day across the plains/SLV tomorrow with High
Wind warning far eastern plains.
Currently...
Pretty fascinating meteorological event ongoing across the region as
a very strong cold front is "backdooring" its way westward slowly
across the region. At 2 pm, the front extended from roughly the KCOS
area...to just east of Pueblo and then Southeast down towards SW
Baca county and into far NE New Mexico.
Temp at 2 pm were currently around 60 across the NE sections of the
southeast plains while here in Pueblo and Trinidad it war around
80F. Temps have cooled dramatically across N El Paso count with
readings in the U40s to L50s. In the larger valleys, temps were
around 60F with mountains in the 20s and 30s.
Rest of Today and into Tonight...
Hi res guidance is in the ballpark with the current synoptic
situation, albeit the front is a county or two farther west than
what the HRRR has it at this time. Believe the front will slowly
(with the emphasis on the word slowly) push towards the west with
tine and should eventually push back to the mtns around sunset.
Winds were still quite strong across the region with sustained winds
in the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts 35 to 45 mph most locations.
Showers (likely mostly virga) were noted over the central mtn region
and the higher elevations of the Pikes Peak region.
For this evening, another re-enforcing boundary is expected to push
down the plains as northwesterly winds re-intensify across the
Palmer Divide and gradually push south. In the meantime, northeast
flow will continue over most of the plains. By last this evening the
secondary front will push south to the NM border. Breezy to gusty
winds from will continue through the night over the region, while
winds at mtn tops will remain strong.
Snow showers will continue across the central mtn region through
this evening and into tonight.
Tomorrow...
Very dry air will push into the region with dwpts approaching Zero
degrees F across all of the region. The continuation of strong
northwest winds tomorrow and the low RH values will bring Red Flag
conditions to all of the plains and San Luis valley tomorrow. The
strongest winds tomorrow will occur over the far eastern plains, and
confidence is rather high that these winds will exceed high wind
criteria, and for this reason a HIGH WIND WARNING has been issued
for the far eastern plains.
Although it will be much drier tomorrow, temps will be noticeably
cooler, with max temps only reaching the 40s to M50s across most of
the plains and San Luis valley. higher mtns will be in the tens and
20s, with 30s mid mtn regions. With the strong winds and relatively
cool temps, it will feel rather chilly across the region tomorrow.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Tue Apr 5 2022
High fire danger looks to continue through much of the extended
forecast period. Operational solutions diverge significantly
going into early next week with how they want to handle the next
upper storm system. Ensembles tend to support the previous GFS and
currently ECMWF.
Wednesday night through Friday...southern Colorado will be under
strong northwesterly flow aloft, with an upper trough over the
Great Lakes region, and high pressure to the west. Model guidance
has a few light snow showers over the Central Mountains early
Wednesday evening, drying out overnight into Thursday morning.
Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday with
strong winds and low humidity values across the region. The
gradient will be strongest out near the Kansas border, where
northerly winds gusting near 60 mph will continue. Kiowa, Prowers
and Baca Counties may need another high wind highlight. Elsewhere
across the Plains, winds will be gusty as well, mainly in the 30
to 40 mph range. Dry air will be in place, with humidity values
around 10 to 15 percent. The combination of strong winds and low
humidity will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions Thursday
afternoon. Afternoon highs on Thursday will top out in the upper
50s to lower 60s.
The gradient begins to relax on Friday as the upper storm system
tracks slowly to the east. Winds will remain gusty, especially out
near the Kansas border. Gusts will be much less, mostly around 30
mph. However, humidity values will remain low, leading to
dangerous fire weather conditions across the Plains. Afternoon
highs will warm in the 60s across the Plains.
Saturday...shortwave ridging is forecast to move across Colorado
ahead of the next storm system. Flow will shift more westerly and
mixing will likely produce warm afternoon temperatures. Highs will
likely climb into the lower 80s across the Plains. Humidity values
will once again be low, and combine with winds near 25 mph to
produce near critical, to critical, fire weather conditions.
Sunday through Tuesday...there is a high degree of uncertainty
with the next upper level storm system. The previous GFS and
ECMWF were both suggesting at an impactful storm system moving
across the area early next week including Mountain snowfall and
fire weather concerns. The latest GFS however, has changed
dramatically over the previous run. The current spread in the
operational solutions has an upper low somewhere from Wyoming to
Arizona. The ECMWF and the ensemble mean are pretty close on storm
track across the Four Corners region, while the Canadian is over
Arizona.
Fire weather concerns begin to ramp up again on Sunday, and
especially Monday, which could be the most dangerous day. Snow
will likely move into the Continental Divide on Sunday and prevail
through early next week. The potential also exists for a few
storms on the Plains Monday, but given the uncertainty in storm
track, the setup is wishy-washy at best.
The main takeaway from the extended period will be a prolonged
fire danger concern into early next week. Mozley
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Tue Apr 5 2022
VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.
Strong winds from a generally northerly component will continue
through this forecast period. Winds may slacken up a bit this
evening, but will ramp up again by later tomorrow morning and will
be stiff out of the northwest tomorrow.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ224-
226>237.
High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ095>099.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ058-
060.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
631 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
Key Messages:
1. Another round of showers/storms arrives later this evening and
continues overnight. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather
late this evening.
2. Windy on Wednesday and Thursday. Much cooler during the day Thursday
and Friday.
3. Frost/freeze potential over Eastern Ozarks Thursday
night and widespread frost/freeze potential Friday night.
4. Warming up late this weekend.
5. Rain chances increase again during the beginning of next week.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through tonight)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
A closed upper-level low will traverse over the Upper Midwest and
drag along a surface cold front into the SGF forecast area this
evening and into tonight. Showers and thunderstorms look to
develop in the vicinity of that cold front. High-resolution model
guidance suggests that showers and storms will develop in our
northern counties around or just after 00Z. Modest MLCAPE of
around or just above 500 J/kg, effective bulk shear around 60
knots and sufficient moisture with dewpoints in the mid to upper
50s would suggest a lower end potential for severe weather. As
such, the Storm Prediction Center currently has a Marginal risk
for severe weather over the CWA. Localized damaging winds and some
isolated severe hail will be the primary threats for any of the
stronger storm cells. With some turning of winds with height and
both the RAP and HRRR hinting at an environment with around
100-150 m2/s2 storm relative helicity, a very limited possibility
for a brief isolated tornado may exist this evening into early
tonight. The main time frame for severe weather would fall in the
00Z-06Z time range, but may be delayed a bit over south-central
Missouri as the cold front finally advances into that area. In
terms of rainfall, some high-res guidance has been placing a
higher band of accumulation around the MO/AR border, however a
widespread quarter inch to half an inch of rainfall seems most
likely at the moment.
The cold front will eventually push through the entirety of the
forecast area around 09Z as that low pressure system continues
progressing eastwards. Current south-southwesterly winds will turn
northwesterly behind the cold front with some gusts up to 25 mph
possible initially following the frontal passage. Showers will
exit the region by early Wednesday morning as drier air filters in
behind the cold front.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
A strong surface pressure gradient will persist over the area as
that aforementioned low pressure system seems to settle in the
Great Lakes region leading to gusty west-northwesterly winds both
Wednesday and Thursday. A drier airmass with dewpoints in the mid
to upper 20s will move in with continued cold air advection. Gusty
winds and RH values in the 25-35% range will allow for some areas
of elevated fire weather. Temperatures look to peak in the low to
mid 60s tomorrow afternoon.
A shortwave feature looks to round about the main upper-level low
resulting in increased cloud cover and maybe a few very light rain
showers over Central Missouri the second half of Thursday. With
continued cold air advection, afternoon temperatures will only
rise into the low to mid 50s. There may be areas of localized
frost/freeze potential over the Eastern Ozarks Thursday night.
Increased cloud cover will persist into Friday, with Friday likely
being the coolest day of the week with temperatures topping out
in the mid 40s to low 50s. Skies look to clear Friday night and
winds lighten as that low-pressure system finally starts exiting
the Great Lakes region setting the stage for a chilly Friday
night. Overnight lows look to drop into the mid 20s and low 30s
across the area leading to widespread frost/freeze potential over
southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks.
Below normal temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s are expected
again on Saturday with northwest flow aloft. A small amplitude
upper-level ridge will build into the region late Saturday
allowing for a warmer end to the weekend with afternoon
temperatures on Sunday likely rising into the low to mid 70s.
Ensemble guidance is beginning to coalesce around broad scale
upper-level troughing over the western CONUS during the first half
of the next work week. This would lead to southwesterly flow aloft
over the region and increased rain chances for the SGF CWA. Severe
weather potential will need to be monitored for this time frame.
GEFS and ECMWF ensembles anomalies are suggesting the potential
for an above-average precipitation pattern setting up next week as
well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
A line of showers and a few thunderstorms will move through the
area this evening and tonight. The highest chances for a
thunderstorm is at SGF and BBG after 03z. Could be a brief period
of MVFR ceilings and vis during any heavier shower/storm. Winds
will turn northwesterly tonight as a cold front moves through. A
very brief period of low level wind shear is possible overnight
however too marginal to include in the TAF. Increasing westerly
winds are likely during the day Wednesday, with gusts over 25 kts
possible, especially at JLN.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM...Langfeld
AVIATION...Burchfield