Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/04/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1027 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
.UPDATE...
Evening Update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1008 PM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022/
Tonight.
Quiet weather across the region tonight, with conditions still
under the influence of surface high pressure centered over the
central Appalachians. Winds will remain light and variable, with
scattered high clouds increasing across the north through the
night. Temperatures will cool into the upper 30s across the
extreme northeast to the mid 40s across the south.
14
Previous short-term discussion:
/Updated at 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022/
Through Monday.
Flattening ridging will reside over the Mid-South region
overnight while an upper trough digs over far Northwest Mexico.
Surface low pressure will begin to organize across portions of New
Mexico into far West Texas after midnight tonight.
A shortwave impulse is progged sharpen over the Mid South region
early Tuesday morning as it moves east over the Tennessee Valley
region. A continued dry slug in the lower levels will result in
the only impact being increasing clouds across the north and
western areas through the day on Monday. The front moving south
today will stall across the Central Gulf of Mexico, then begin
returning north as a warm front later in the day Monday, advancing
toward the Northern Gulf Coast by nightfall. Likewise, a
southerly flow in the lower levels will develop early in the day
and become more entrenched through the afternoon hours with south
winds from 5-10 mph. High temperatures will increase notably with
readings from the mid 70s northeast to the low 80s far south and
southwest.
05
.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0126 PM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022/
Monday night through Wednesday.
No significant changes to forecast. HRRR and 3km NAM are developing
a MCS over east Texas Monday night. The MCS will likely strengthen
as it moves across LA and MS and into a more favorable environment.
Models indicate a 40-50 knot low level jet developing along the
band of convection, which will likely help maintain its intensity
and northward extent. Difficult to determine what will happen to
the line after sunrise Tuesday, as these systems typically weaken,
but severe threat certainly looks higher across south Alabama on
Tuesday. Forecast soundings across south Alabama just ahead of the
convective line are impressive: 0-6km Bulk Shear 40-50 kts, 0-3km
SRH 350-400 s2/m2 and 0-3km EHI 4-5. The organized activity will
move out of the southeast counties by late afternoon. There is a
small chance for thunderstorm development across west Alabama by
late afternoon if the air mass can recover. Any afternoon storms
would contain a higher hail threat. A relative lull in the
activity Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A cold front will
push through Alabama Wednesday afternoon and evening. The front
will encounter a very unstable air mass, with surface based CAPE
2500-300 J/kg and steep mid level lapse rates. Damaging winds and
large hail will be possible. Forecast hodographs and SRH are
certainly favorable enough for the inclusion of a tornado threat
as well.
58/rose
Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022/
Tuesday through Saturday.
Strong to severe storms possible both Tuesday and Wednesday.
A positively tilted shortwave trough is expected to move through the
Deep South on Tuesday, developing a weak surface low that will lift
through the Mid-MS Valley into the TN Valley during the morning
hours. Rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing late Monday
night into early Tuesday as the warm front is slowly lifted
northward across Central AL. South of the warm front, a broad warm
sector will advect in across most of the region. A strengthening low
level jet is expected to slide across the state with upper level
diffluence aloft. However, guidance doesn`t really show any surface-
based convergent boundaries (cold front) moving through the area,
which results in broad convection in the modestly unstable warm
sector due to the mid and upper level forcing without any specific
surface trigger mechanism. This evolution of the system casts quite
a bit of uncertainty in regards to severe potential. The environment
remains highly sheared and modestly unstable, so if any storms are
able to become more organized, they could be strong to severe.
Therefore, I`ll continue mention a low-end severe threat for Tuesday
with the best chances being across the southern counties (generally
south of Hwy 80 corridor) where the better instability should be.
There`s relatively higher confidence in the potential for flooding
across Central AL with this system as it moves through. The track of
the system could result in some training of storms somewhere across
our area, though the exact axis of heaviest rain has been bouncing
around in model guidance. There could be 3-5" of rain in the axis of
heaviest rain, wherever it sets up. If it ends up being over some of
our urban areas, this could lead to flash flooding. The system moves
quickly eastward and out of our area by Tuesday night, ending any
significant rain chances by midnight.
On Wednesday, a strong cold front is expected to push into Central
AL. This cold front is associated with an occluding surface low in
the Upper Midwest. Since we don`t really see a frontal passage with
the Tuesday system, surface winds remain generally southerly to
southwesterly ahead of the front on Wednesday, which maintains
the moist/unstable airmass across the area ahead of the frontal
passage. Since we have the surface forcing and instability, we
could see strong to severe storms develop along the boundary as it
moves through Wednesday afternoon into the night. The major
limiting factor with this system is the lack of upper level
dynamic and little directional shear. Latest model guidance also
develops a shortwave trough along the Gulf Coast well ahead of the
frontal passage, which could lead to coastal convection
contaminating the pre-frontal environment. However, if any storms
are able to develop along the front, they certainly could pose a
risk for gusty winds and large hail. The tornado threat continues
to look low as surface winds veer to the southwest and become
largely parallel to the front, which is expected when the surface
low is displaced so far to the north. With that said, I can`t
completely rule out a tornado threat given the potential for storm
interactions that are more mesoscale in nature and will need to
be resolved closer to the event.
The cold front is expected to move out of our area by Thursday
morning, ending rain chances across Central AL. Colder and drier air
will build in across the region as the deep upper level low slowly
meanders through the Ohio Valley and the broader trough axis slides
through towards the end of the week. It`s possible we could see
another early-season frost by Saturday morning with current forecast
lows in the 34-37 degree range generally north of I-20 and I-22.
25/Owen
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.
VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle.
Clear skies with light and variable winds prevail through the
overnight period. As surface high pressure moves eastward and away
from the area, winds will develop a more persistently southerly
direction through the day on Monday, with speeds of 4-5kts.
14
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather will continue through Monday evening. Min RHs will be
25-35% Monday afternoon. Calm winds overnight will become south
4-6 mph on Monday. A strong storm system will bring widespread
showers and thunderstorms to the area on Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 38 76 48 71 58 / 0 0 20 90 20
Anniston 42 77 53 72 61 / 0 0 30 90 30
Birmingham 46 77 55 73 62 / 0 0 50 100 20
Tuscaloosa 45 80 55 75 62 / 0 0 60 100 20
Calera 44 77 57 74 64 / 0 0 50 100 20
Auburn 46 77 56 71 63 / 0 0 30 90 40
Montgomery 46 80 57 77 65 / 0 0 50 90 40
Troy 47 81 57 75 64 / 0 0 50 90 40
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1059 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
Synoptic cold front has cleared all by SE KS at this time, with some
post frontal showers over the top of the frontal boundary across the
Flint Hills and even into portions of Chase and Marion Co`s, as the
850-700h mid level baroclinic zone lingers along the KS Turnpike.
Latest low level moisture transport off of the RAP suggests this
weak moisture transport will continue until at least 06z, before it
gradually veers out to the east. Elevated instability is rather
meager, only around 250 J/KG, so not sure we will see more than a
few rumbles of thunder with this activity. Think some scattered
showers will continue, given the moisture transport, with current
grids and zones having a nice handle on things.
Ketcham
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
A shortwave trough was moving eastward across the Northern Plains
this afternoon. A trailing cold front stretched from southeast South
Dakota SSW into portions of central KS early this afternoon.
As this front moves south and east it will become a focus for
showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon with higher
probabilities this evening across southeast Kansas as low level
moisture gradually increases with an increasing LLJ. With limited
instability, we`re not expected severe storms although a couple of
robust updrafts may result in some transient small hail and gusty
winds.
The frontal boundary is progged to drop south into Oklahoma on
Monday with a stable post-frontal regime building across Kansas.
Another subtle shortwave trough is expected to approach the Southern
Plains through the day while the cold front stalls over northern
OK. As the previous shift noted, a few showers and storms may
linger near the OK state line as this feature approaches with some
mid-lvl WAA north of the boundary but the NAM remains the most
bullish with precipitation over southern KS and feel much of the
area could remain dry on Mon. We could see a period of showers and
storms over mainly southeast KS Mon night as the Southern Plains
shortwave trough lifts northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley
area.
Tue-Wed...A clipper system will drive a cold front southward across
the area on late on Tue bringing another round of showers and
perhaps a few storms to the area during the evening hours but once
again the quality of the low level moisture will be sub par and the
threat for organized strong or severe storms is expected to remain
low. The mid/upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley will
deepen on Wed with strong northwest winds impacting the Central
Plains states driving fire weather concerns across much of the area
with wind headlines likely across much of the region. Forecast high
temperatures may struggle to reach 60 in some areas.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
The large-scale pattern will feature a robust mid/upper trough
moving slowly eastward across the Great Lakes area with
north/northwesterly mid/upper flow prevailing through Friday
across the central CONUS. We could see high winds impacting the
region again on Thu before diminishing as the mid/upper storm
system shifts eastward away from the area. Below normal
temperatures will prevail through Fri with highs only reaching the
50s. As we move into the weekend, a mid/upper ridge will bring rising
heights/increasing thickness and moderating temperatures across
the area. Highs by Sunday may approach 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
A cold frontal boundary continues to push southeast of the forecast
area at this time into OK. Post frontal SHRA and a few TSRA
continues over the Flint Hills and SE KS at this time, as low level
moisture transport continues for a few more hours over the top of
the synoptic frontal boundary. So will keep a VCTS going for the
KCNU taf at least for a few more hours, until moisture transport
eventually veers out to the east, with SHRA diminishing after
around 08z.
Ketcham
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
Gusty northwest winds will develop in the wake of a cold front on
Tuesday afternoon resulting in a period of very high grassland
fire danger over portions of central Kansas.
As we look ahead to next week an extended period of gusty north
winds will impact the region resulting in elevated grassland fire
danger each day from Tuesday through Friday as gusty northwest
winds and below normal temperatures prevail through the period.
Breezy southerly winds and above normal temperatures will return
next weekend, especially on Sunday with a very high grassland fire
danger continuing across the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 44 62 42 73 / 20 10 10 10
Hutchinson 42 62 40 72 / 10 10 10 10
Newton 43 62 42 72 / 20 10 10 10
ElDorado 44 61 44 71 / 20 10 10 10
Winfield-KWLD 47 62 45 73 / 30 20 20 0
Russell 36 63 38 70 / 0 10 0 10
Great Bend 38 62 38 72 / 0 10 0 10
Salina 39 64 39 72 / 0 0 10 10
McPherson 41 62 39 72 / 10 10 10 10
Coffeyville 48 62 48 73 / 80 50 60 0
Chanute 45 62 47 72 / 70 20 40 10
Iola 45 62 46 71 / 70 20 30 10
Parsons-KPPF 47 62 48 72 / 70 40 60 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...MWM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
755 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
A fast-moving low pressure system will lead to widespread showers
developing overnight. Areas west of I-55 should be dry by Monday
morning, but showers could linger into mid-morning across eastern
Illinois. Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Monday, with highs
in the upper 50s or low 60s. Additional rain chances are expected
throughout the week, but total rainfall amounts between now and
Friday should be less than an inch.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
While temperature/dew point spreads remain fairly elevated early
this evening, some light showers have managed to move into the
northern CWA along a weak surface boundary. The main activity
remains west of the Mississippi River just ahead of the front,
with more of its impacts moving in after midnight. Forecast
soundings from the HRRR show a persistent drier air mass below
850 mb, so some weakening of the showers is expected the further
they move southeast. By sunrise, most areas west of I-55 should be
dry. With the clouds and winds increasing to 10-15 mph,
temperatures should only fall off into the mid-upper 40s
overnight.
Recent forecast updates were to update the rain trends through
Monday. Temperatures and winds are generally on track and only
needed some minor adjustments.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
It feels like forecast deja vu, as another fast moving shortwave
tracks north of the area tonight, sweeping a low pressure system
through the region and producing widespread showers across central
Illinois as it does. The surface low pressure system was located
over South Dakota as of 19z/2pm with a cold front extending south
along the Nebraska/Iowa border and back west into central Kansas.
Broad ascent associated with the system has led to cirrus clouds
pushing into western Illinois Sunday afternoon, and cloud cover
will increase across central Illinois Sunday evening. While a few
isolated showers are possible late this evening, dry low level
air should act to limit precip initially. A more robust chance
for precip comes as the front tracks from west to east across the
CWA during the overnight hours. The latest CAMs suggest precip is
most likely along the IL River Valley between midnight- 3am, the
I-55 corridor between 2am- 5am, and eastern IL between 5am- 8am.
In terms of temperatures, continued southerly flow through most of
the overnight will result in mild low temperatures, in the mid
40s.
Into the day on Monday, the front stalls just south of the area.
Skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy as low clouds pivot
around the departing surface low pressure system and high clouds
stream ahead out ahead of a shortwave moving through the southern
US. Into Monday afternoon, model soundings show a shallow unstable
layer atop a well-mixed PBL, and this could be sufficient to
promote a few isolated showers. The best chance for this would be
across eastern Illinois where that shallow unstable layer is a tad
deeper than further to the west, and this is captured in a few of
the CAMs. Overall, the chance of precip is low but felt there was
enough of a signal to warrant a mention of slight chance of
precip in the forecast package in far eastern Illinois. High
temperatures remain rather seasonable on Monday, in the upper 50s
and low 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
Much of the thinking regarding the upper level pattern evolution
through the upcoming work week remains unchanged from yesterday.
A shortwave moves through the southern branch of the jet stream
Monday night into Tuesday, producing a weak low pressure system
that tracks through the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio
Valley. This will lead to rain Monday night into Tuesday,
primarily across the southern and eastern halves of the CWA
(roughly along and south of I-72). Meanwhile, in the northern
branch of the jet stream, a much stronger, closed upper low digs
into the northern Plains on Tuesday. In response, a much deeper
low pressure system forms and occludes over the northern Plains,
resulting in a relatively narrow warm sector that pivots through
Missouri/Illinois Tuesday night. Rich, gulf moisture return is
inhibited by the preceding system moving through the Ohio Valley,
however, there should be enough elevated instability to support a
few thunderstorms along/ahead of the cold front as it swings
through Tuesday night.
The cold front and associated precip is expected to exit the CWA
sometime Wednesday morning. 850mb temps cool a few degrees behind
the cold front, but the much colder airmass does not immediately
advect in. The moderated air mass behind the front combined with
mostly clear skies thanks to the dry slot moving overhead will
allow high temps to remain near 60. Model soundings continue to
suggest very deep boundary layer mixing on Wednesday afternoon,
and wind gusts in excess of 30 knots appear likely.
By Thursday, the upper level pattern will be highly amplified,
with the upper level trough axis right through Illinois and the
500-mb low just north of the ILX CWA. Elsewhere, strong upper
level ridging builds along the west coast. Despite an initial
respite from colder temperatures behind the cold front, the colder
air mass will continue to advect around the low, arriving in
central IL by Thursday morning as 850 temps drop to -3 or -4 degC.
Both the upper level and surface lows will continue to swirl over
the Great Lakes region Thursday and Friday, resulting in
persistent, breezy northwesterly surface flow. Below average
temperatures are likely as high temps struggle to reach the upper
40s. The cold temperatures aloft lead to steep lapse rates
supportive of scattered light shower development Thursday and
Friday. With surface temperatures dropping into the mid-30s
Thursday night, and below freezing temperatures through much of
the cloud layer, it would not be a surprise to see snow mix in at
times overnight.
After several days of dominating the weather across the Midwest,
the system finally starts to lift away by Friday night. As the
upper level ridge over the western US shifts east, a warming trend
is expected through the weekend, with temperatures returning to
near normal (highs in the mid-60s) by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
Ceilings are expected to steadily lower through the night as a
front approaches the area from the west. MVFR conditions expected
to develop between 07-10Z from KBMI/KSPI west as rain arrives,
though the lower ceilings will likely hold off further east until
12Z or so. NBM probabilities of ceilings below 1,000 feet have
eased up a bit and appear more likely just west of KPIA, but this
will need to be watched closely. Winds pick up as the front moves
in and will be gusting to around 20 knots in most areas, with a
lesser threat at KPIA closer to the surface low. Winds swing to
the west Monday morning and the low clouds should scatter out by
midday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...Erwin
SHORT TERM...Erwin
LONG TERM...Erwin
AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
845 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022
.UPDATE...
At 8 PM, Weak high pressure ridge generally located west and
northwest of the area while a weak reinforcing cool front is noted
over SC and GA. This front will slide slowly southward tonight,
probably moving into parts of southeast GA by sunrise Monday. Skies
expected to continue to be clear per satellite imagery and 00z JAX
sounding, with near calm winds and dry weather. The HRRR and HREF
suggest potential for patchy shallow fog late tonight and have just
expanded patchy fog to be to the I-10 corridor as well, though
overall confidence is not high given the dry conditions aloft. With
rather efficient radiational cooling tonight, leaned toward some
cooler overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s for southeast GA, and
upper 40s to lower 50s over most of northeast FL.
.MARINE...
Light winds generally at 10 kt or less over the marine zones
expected to shift to more north and northeast and east by Monday
morning as weak cool front slides down the southeast U.S. coast.
Little change needed in the CWF update.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [728 PM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Monday Night]...
A sunny and pleasant afternoon marks a friendly end to the
weekend thanks to high pressure located over the TN valley
building into the region. Light north winds around 10-15 mph have
shift easterly to northeasterly at the immediate coast behind the
seabreeze. Low dewpoints in the 30s and 40s have lowered Relative
humidity levels as low as 25-30 percent thanks to cool air
advection and subsidence from the NW flow at the surface and
aloft. A dry cold front is positioned just NW of the area across
central GA that will slowly sink into SE GA this evening as high
pressure moves east over the Appalachians and, then as the high
builds over the mid atlantic states the front will sink further
south into NE FL overnight which will bring some reinforcing dry
air over into the area for Monday.
Tonight, Light east to southeast winds around 5-10 mph will prevail
at the coast and lows overnight will fall quickly due to clear skies
into the upper 40s over SE GA, the low/mid 50s over inland NE FL
and the upper 50s to around 60 at the coast. Some patchy shallow
fog may occur where Saturday`s rainfall coverage was greatest
from Gainesville to Palatka and Pam Coast southward.
Monday, high will shift northeast of the area over the Atlantic
waters off the Outer banks of NC with east to southeasterly winds
around 10-15 mph. Low level flow will become southerly above the
surface and help slowly increase moisture levels by the afternoon
hours with some low to mid level clouds encroaching north into NE
FL with a few showers possibly lifting north from central FL into
north central FL before sunset, but have kept silent pops over
the forecast area Monday for now. Highs will warm to the low/mid
80s inland with upper 70s at the coast.
Tuesday, a warm front will lift from the Gulf of Mexico into
the deep south ahead of a developing surface low that will
trek from the ArkLaTex region NE over the TN valley. As the
surface low and the warm front lift NE across the southeast
states, a stream of potent shortwave energy will help ignite
strong to severe thunderstorms along the Gulf coast into
southern AL and GA. Along with strengthening SW low level
flow (Low level shear of 40-50 knots) reigning in deeper
moisture over our area (PWATS over 1.50 inches), this pattern
will be a good setup for numerous to widespread showers that
will move into SE GA by early afternoon Tuesday. The increasing
shear (0-6km Shear up to 60 knots) over the region with enhance
storms with scattered thunderstorms and isolated strong to
severe storms which may become enhanced by the Gulf and the
Atlantic seabreezes as CAPE rises above 2,000 J/kg and low
to mid level lapse rates increase from diurnal heating.
Southerly winds will be breezy 15-25 mph during the day with
higher gusts outside of storms. Highs will rise above normal
into the mid 80s over NE FL, low/mid 80s over SE GA and around
80s at the coast. Rounds of showers and a few storms will
continue overnight Tuesday with heavy rain amounts totaling
over up to 1.0 to 1.5 inches over SE GA and the suwannee
valley of NE FL with locally heavier amounts possible.
Wednesday, the stronger dynamics will exit and lift away from
the region early in the day with a bit of a break in shower
through most of the afternoon with scattered shower coverage
for most areas and numerous showers closer to I-75 westward
to the Gulf of Mexico where enough coastal convergence coupled
with a stream of shortwave energy will enhance shower coverage
and develop embedded isolated storms into Wednesday night. Highs
Wednesday will again rise into the mid 80s but expand in coverage
into SE GA with breezy south to SW winds under mostly cloudy
skies.
Wednesday night, Coverage in showers and storms will begin to
increase as additional showers and storms will move across NE FL
from the Gulf as a deepening mid/upper level trough over the
upper midwest spurs more unstable energy downstream into our
region. Lows will be warm as deep moisture remains over the area
in the upper 60s.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]...
Thursday, the deep trough extending from the upper midwest will
push a cold front eastward along the Gulf coast into our region
with numerous showers and scattered storms. The activity will end
by Thursday night with SW winds turning to the NW and then west
as high pressure builds in from the southern plains and an upper
low swirls well north of the region over north of the OH valley.
Temperatures will be above normal Thursday with highs in the
low/mid 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Friday, drier conditions filter into the area with breezy NW winds
becoming westerly as high pressure builds in from TX, but a deep
mid/upper trough axis digging south from the parent upper low over
the OH valley will keep some low level moisture in place to keep
partly cloudy skies in the form of stratocumulus lingering over
the area. High temperatures will fall to slightly below normal
highs Friday in low/mid 70s and upper 60s over portions of SE GA.
Saturday, a cooler morning in the mid 40s across SE GA and the upper
40s to low 50s across NE FL will then become sunny late in the day as
a deep trough axis finally passes just east of the area with breezy
westerly winds and cooler highs in the 60s over most locations and
low 70s over the southern St Johns river basin as surface high slowly
edges east along the NE gulf coast.
Sunday, high pressure will build just west of the area over the FL
Gulf coast with light NW winds and a chilly start with lows in the
low/mid 40s rebounding to below normal highs in the low 70s under
sunny skies.
.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]
VFR will prevail through the period. Some model guidance hints at
some patchy fog for inland TAFs late tonight so have TEMPO group
for MVFR vsby around the 08Z-12Z time frame at JAX, VQQ and GNV.
This fog expected to be fairly shallow and brief given the drier
air that filtered into the area today, but enough ground moisture
from recent rainfall to support it. Sfc winds will go near calm
tonight, and then become east and southeast 5-10 kt on Monday
after 14Z.
.MARINE...
High pressure will build north of the waters tonight and then
northeast of the local area on Monday and to the east on Tuesday.
Unsettled weather returns late Tuesday through Thursday night
into early Friday as a couple of frontal systems impact the
region bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Winds and
seas may approach caution levels over the offshore waters starting
late Tuesday.
Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for NE FL beaches and low risk for SE
GA beaches through this evening. A moderate risk is expected for
all area breaches on Monday.
.HYDROLOGY...
Minor river flooding continues through tonight for the Satilla
river basin and through the end of this week along the Sante Fe
Basin.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 47 82 59 81 67 / 0 0 20 90 80
SSI 57 76 65 76 67 / 0 0 20 80 70
JAX 49 81 63 84 68 / 0 0 20 70 70
SGJ 56 79 64 82 68 / 0 0 10 70 50
GNV 50 83 63 84 69 / 0 0 10 60 60
OCF 53 84 63 86 68 / 0 10 10 50 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1014 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
.UPDATE...
Inherited grids are on track with current observations, therefore
no update was performed.
Stigger/87
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022/
DISCUSSION...
For the 04/04/2022 0000 UTC TAF package.
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist as we head into the overnight hours,
with clear skies and light to moderate onshore flow expected
to continue at all sites. Overnight, winds will relax and cloud
cover will begin to increase slightly. Light winds and partly
cloudy skies should allow for some patchy fog formation after
midnight, with fog then persisting thereafter through sunrise.
Mainly MVFR VIS is expected with this round of fog, however, some
pockets of IFR could occur. After the fog lifts tomorrow morning,
cloud cover will persist, with CIGS expected to gradually lower
through the afternoon from VFR to MVFR. Rain should hold off
until the end of the TAF period, with showers expected to begin
moving onshore around the 22-00Z time frame and continuing
thereafter into the overnight hours.
17
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022/
SHORT TERM [Today through Tuesday]...
Clear skies are currently being seen throughout the area with
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will be expected
to move in and develop overnight with fairly light southeasterly
winds. Patchy fog will be possible throughout the area overnight
into the morning hours.
Shortwave energy will be expected to move through the area Monday
evening into Monday night. The Storm Prediction Center has
northern parts of our area in an Enhanced Risk of severe weather,
becoming a Slight Risk and then a Marginal Risk as you progress
further south towards the coast. The main concern will be how far
south the convective complex will progress when it eventually
reaches our area from the west Monday evening into Monday night.
The HRRR is indicating a possible bow echo with the system which
suggests a possible damaging wind threat. Large hail, a few
tornadoes, and flooding will be possible as well.
55
LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
Long term period starts with a broad surface trough / cold frontal
boundary extending from central TX through the ArkLaTex and up into
the Great Lakes. With the front on the doorstep, the setup is one
that`ll yield excellent pre-frontal warming before a gradual FROPA
through the day... Especially given the expectation of minimal cloud
cover and no precip with the front. While dependent on the exact
speed and timing of the front, current forecast highs are largely in
the mid to upper 80s. Looking at probabilistic NBM guidance, portions
of SE TX will actually have around a 20-40% chance of exceeding 90
degrees if conditions align favorably. Aside from temperatures, a
tightened pressure gradient in association with the front will yield
fairly breezy conditions, and post-frontal winds will shift
northwesterly.
The remainder of the long term forecast is anticipated to be on the
cooler side, but dry. By late Wednesday the front is expected to
have passed through the region. Meanwhile, the expansive shortwave
largely responsible becomes cut-off to an extent, and will make only
very minimal eastward progress over the following several days. The
associated broad surface low will occlude over the Great Lakes, and
with a modest surface high being pushed down the Rockies, deep
northwest flow will develop and persist over the local forecast
region. This CAA will cause temps to cool down moving towards the
weekend, with the coolest high temps expected Friday afternoon, and
coolest low temps Saturday morning when the surface high becomes
more closely centered atop the region. By Saturday into Sunday, the
expansive shortwave begins to finally lift off of the east coast,
and the surface high slides east of the local forecast region. This
yields low level return flow, and begins a gradual warmup to close
out the weekend and long term forecast.
50
MARINE...
Easterly winds will become southeasterly later this afternoon into
this evening and will be expected to become elevated this evening
into the overnight hours. Therefore, a Small Craft Exercise
Caution will be issued for this evening into the overnight hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow into tomorrow
night. Some storms could be severe.
55
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 55 82 65 84 / 0 10 90 50
LCH 58 78 65 82 / 0 30 80 40
LFT 57 82 66 84 / 0 20 80 70
BPT 61 78 66 84 / 0 30 70 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
831 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2022
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level ridging moving
into the western Great Lakes ahead of a well-defined shortwave over
the eastern Dakotas. The mid-level ridge is supporting sfc high pres
ridge extending s across northern Ontario to central Upper MI. As a
result, it`s a tranquil aftn across the fcst area with winds light
or calm. Abundant low-level moisture lingers, and where the day
started out mostly sunny across western Upper MI, considerable
cu/stratocu has developed. Fog that was present over the eastern
fcst area this morning has dissipated, and the low stratus has
lifted some and began take on a bit more of a cellular appearance
under early Apr daytime heating. Temps are running in the upper 30s
to upper 40s F.
Shortwave over the eastern Dakotas will weaken as it moves e,
reaching the Upper Great Lakes early Mon morning and the lower Great
Lakes by Monday evening. With best deep layer forcing and low-mid
level fgen passing by just to the s of the fcst area, heaviest pcpn
will also pass by to the s of Upper MI. Expect lighter pcpn on the
northern end of the system to spread into the fcst area tonight,
especially from the far w into the s central. This pcpn will
end/diminish Mon morning, but may linger across the s central and e
during the aftn. Ptype tonight/Mon morning should be snow, though
there may be some rain mixed in initially and later Mon morning as
some of the guidance has wetbulb zero heights a little above 700ft
during those times. Wet snow accumulations will be under 1 inch, but
not out of the question that an inch or 2 could accumulate across
the southern half of Menominee County, closer to the stronger
forcing. Expect low temps btwn 26 and 31F tonight and high temps on
Mon in the upper 30s to mid 40s F. If more sun begins to make an
appearance in the aftn over the w than currently expected, temps
could rise toward 50F.
Per vis satellite imagery and webcams, a mix of low stratus and some
fog is present over a good portion of the e half of Lake Superior.
With setting sun and a light n wind become e this evening, some of
this low stratus/fog will make a little progress inland across
Marquette/Alger/Luce counties and especially the Keweenaw. The fog
could be locally dense. In addition, if a period of mostly clear
skies does occur anywhere this evening, radiational fog may develop.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 417 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2022
Quasi-zonal flow in the mid-levels and low amplitude low-level
ridging will build eastward into Upper Michigan Monday evening
behind a departing shortwave low pressure that passed over southern
Wisconsin earlier Monday. The result will be decreasing precip
chances across the eastern UP Monday night. These dry conditions
then last into Tuesday afternoon for all zones.
Southeasterly warm air advection begins in the 850 mb layer Monday
night and a deeper, more uniform south to southeasterly WAA layer
builds into Tuesday mid-day as the mid-level ridge axis shift into
Ontario by 18z Tuesday. Temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be a
few degrees warmer than Monday. While the dry conditions occur in
the U.P., a northern Pacific low pressure exiting the Canadian
Rockies moves into the Northern Plains Tuesday and deepens. This
low, along with embedded and phasing shortwaves, will drive the
weather pattern for Upper Michigan for mid to late this week.
The low continues to deepen as it shifts into the Upper Midwest
Tuesday night. The warm front from a phased shortwave is progged to
create a band of frontally-forced precip spreading west to east into
the Upper Peninsula late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.
At this point, a quarter to a half inch of liquid QPF is possible
from this initial band by Wednesday evening. Precip coverage could
decrease for a bit Wednesday night from a passing dry slot, but
showers return Thursday. The forecast maintains the cutoff of snow
chances mainly to north-central and and western Upper Michigan
Thursday and into Friday as the low is progged to shift eastward out
of Wisconsin and into Lower Michigan. There is high uncertainty
though as to how much can accumulate, but highland terrain snowfall
chances did increase this afternoon. Along with the precip, it is
best to keep in mind the blustery northerly winds that are likely to
occur Thursday near Lake Superior and through much of the night and
into Friday areawide.
This forecast continues to be a blend of the national blend and
other ensemble blended guidance to slow the timing and expand the
greatest precip chances for the initial frontal band on Wednesday.
Sounding analysis shows the slight chance of some freezing rain
cannot be negated for mid to late week so sporadic coverage is kept
at any point over this 48-60 hr period. Non-bias corrected guidance
was blended into the previous forecast and the latest national blend
for daytime high temperatures to decrease these for continued sky
cover/precip and eventual column cooling on wrap-around northerly
flow later this week.
As showers exit the region Friday evening, expect a much calmer and
warmer weekend to setup. High temperatures rebound fairly quickly to
near, and potentially 5-10 degrees F, above normal by next Sunday,
along with drier conditions from the building ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 800 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2022
Easterly onshore/upslope flow has already brought stratus and IFR
conditions into CMX this evening and IFR could persist through
much of the day on Monday. At IWD and SAW, expect conditions
lowering to IFR late evening and then perhaps to LIFR overnight
into Mon morning. Low pres over southern MN will track e into
southern WI later tonight bringing some -SN to IWD and possibly
some -SN to SAW. -SN ending at IWD should allow for improvement to
MVFR conditions Mon afternoon. Only limited improvement is
expected at SAW as low-level moisture lingers into Mon afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 349 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2022
Light winds of 20 kts or less are expected to continue over Lake
Superior until a low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest on
Tuesday. East winds between 20 and 25 kts begin across the lake
Tuesday evening, increasing to 20 to 30 kts late Tuesday night as
the low approaches. Gusts above 30 kts are possible Wednesday as the
low reaches Wisconsin. Winds are expected to back to the northeast
Wednesday and Wednesday night, and should increase to gales around
35 kts Thursday across the western half of the lake. North-northeast
gales up to 40 knots develop over much of Lake Superior Thursday
night as the main low moves into Lower Michigan. Expect the gales to
die off beginning Friday afternoon as the low moves away. Winds
below 20 knots return next weekend as high pressure builds across
the Upper Midwest.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...NLy
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...NLy
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
952 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
The HRRR had the right idea with the primary convection initially
over northwest Texas, and then a cluster moving from southwest
Oklahoma toward central Oklahoma and otherwise not much other
development along the front. With these trends, have updated the
forecast to keep the highest POPs along this corridor from
southwest to central Oklahoma and then east toward east central
Oklahoma later tonight, but lowered POPs a little bit elsewhere.
May still see some expended development of showers later tonight,
but coverage may still be scattered.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
Key Points:
* Scattered strong to severe storms are expected to develop this
evening across parts of the southwestern half of Oklahoma and
adjacent north Texas with large hail and damaging winds as the main
threats.
* Scattered strong to severe storms will again be possible tomorrow
afternoon (continuing into the evening) along and near the Red
River. Heavy rain will also be a concern over parts of southeast
Oklahoma.
Meteorological Analysis:
A cold front making its way into northwest Oklahoma will reach Ponca
City to Watonga to Quanah, Tx by 00z tonight (approximately), with a
dryline developing and stretching southward from Quanah, Tx
(approximately). A fairly warm 700mb layer and lack of surface
moisture will keep us capped through the afternoon. Toward evening,
moisture return in the southerly low level flow in conjunction with
daytime heating should help to destabilize the area south of the
front / east of the dryline. Additionally, a developing low level
jet will provide some additional support for convection
overnight. Overall, parameter space does not look quite as
conducive as in previous model runs. HREF shows MUCAPE of
1000-1500 joules and deep layer shear of 35-45 knots, with the
highest moisture / instability concentrated in a narrow corridor
just east of the dryline / front. With most of the moisture
elevated and some lingering CIN, expect mainly a few widely
scattered elevated hailers to develop along the boundaries this
evening.
With the loss of daytime heating, the severe risk should diminish
late tonight. However, scattered showers and storms will likely
continue through the night into Monday morning with warm air
advection ahead of the front.
How far south the front makes it will depend largely on tonight`s
convection (this will impact Monday`s high temperatures, with upper
50s / lower 60s north of the front up to lower 70s south of the
front). Most models show a bit of a lull in convection during the
morning hours tomorrow before we see some redevelopment tomorrow
afternoon / evening as the upper wave moves across the area. Modest
destabilization with ample deep layer shear will allow for a few
strong to severe storms along and near the Red River tomorrow
afternoon / evening. With PWATs of 1.2 to 1.5 inches, heavy rain
will also be a hazard in southeast portions of the forecast
area. These showers and storms will exit eastward overnight.
Day
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
Key Points:
* Fire weather concerns will return Tuesday through the weekend,
with the highest fire weather concerns occurring Wednesday and
Thursday (with RFTIs potentially in the critical range)
Meteorological Analysis:
Moving into Tuesday, an upper level low will begin moving through
the northern plains with a fairly tight pressure gradient around it.
Around 850mb, we`ll see westerly flow bring a low level thermal
ridge into western and southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas.
This will allow for a rapid warm up on Tuesday with breezy winds.
Some elevated to near critical fire weather will be possible on the
western fringes of the forecast area where RHs will be lower. Toward
evening, north central Oklahoma could see some light rain under the
influence of the upper low to the north.
A deep cold front will sweep through Tuesday night, bringing gusty
north winds and cool, dry air behind it. As the upper low slowly
swings toward the northeast CONUS, cool, dry, and breezy will be the
rule for our forecast area through Friday. Unfortunately, this means
an increase in fire weather. Latest guidance brings northwest
Oklahoma into the critical range for Wednesday and Thursday (with
widespread elevated to near critical elsewhere).
Some ridging begins to build in this weekend, allowing southerly
surface flow to return and temperatures to start warming up again.
Some fire weather concerns are expected to continue into the
weekend, though confidence out this far is not high.
Day
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 952 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected across all
but the northwest portion of the area. A cold front currently
continues to move slowly southeast this evening. The current
showers and storms will move east this evening and early Monday
morning, with some redevelopment of scattered showers expected
through the morning. More widespread shower and thunderstorms will
develop near the front Monday afternoon. MVFR and locally IFR
conditions will occur with the showers and thunderstorms, and
there will also likely be MVFR ceilings apart from showers and
storms Monday morning north of the cold front, especially in
central Oklahoma.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 52 59 47 76 / 50 60 50 0
Hobart OK 50 59 41 83 / 50 50 30 0
Wichita Falls TX 55 69 48 86 / 30 70 50 0
Gage OK 45 61 39 84 / 10 20 10 0
Ponca City OK 48 61 44 75 / 40 40 30 0
Durant OK 56 73 54 81 / 50 70 90 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
717 PM PDT Sun Apr 3 2022
.UPDATE...Latest water vapor imagery is showing a powerful upper
level low moving sewd off the British Columbia Coast. South of the
low is a strong jet stream and long fetch of moisture with rain
beginning to spread into western Oregon and Washington. Heavy snow
is expected tonight and Monday along the Cascade crest and a
strong cold front will cross the region Monday morning bringing
strong to locally damaging winds to the region. Numerous wind and
winter highlights are in effect for the wind and snow and will
hold off on making any changes to them for this evening. There are
some conflicting signals in the wind guidance for the high wind
potential with the HRRR and HREF being less bullish than the NBM
4.1. Overall the trend has been downward in the forecast max
gusts...but it still looks like widespread 45-55 mph gusts with a
few 65 mph gusts seem likely mainly from 18Z until 06-08z Monday
evening. Did adjust the wind grids a bit this evening and lowered
the POPS Monday afternoon over the lowlands after the frontal
passage...otherwise the rest of the forecast looked good this
evening. 78
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 PM PDT Sun Apr 3 2022/
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday Night...A powerful upper low
and trough is moving into the Pacific Northwest and will bring very
active weather to the area late tonight through Monday night. The
upper low is currently off of British Columbia and will ashore
tomorrow. As it does so, a front with a few embedded disturbances
and a weak atmospheric river will bring substantial amounts of rain
and higher elevation snow into the Cascades and lesser amounts to
the eastern mountains. Snow amounts of up to 2 feet near the Cascade
crest are still forecast through tomorrow night and this will
significantly impact travel across mountain highways. The eastern
mountains look to get much less snow with 3 to 7 inches above 4500
feet and lesser amounts below that elevation. Central Oregon will
get up to an inch of snow with a quarter to a third of an inch of
rain. Other lower elevation area will get less than a quarter inch
with the Columbia Basin less than a tenth of an inch. The system is
also being fed by a strong 170 knot jet at 300 mb and 50-60 knots at
850 mb. It is expected that these 850 mb winds will mix down to the
surface at times on Monday, especially in the afternoon and have
issued a mix of high end wind advisories and high wind warnings for
all lower elevation locations. winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to
55 mph will be widespread and the Columbia Basin, Blue Mountain
Foothills, Simcoe Highlands and Yakima Valley reaching 30 to 45 mph
with gusts to 65 mph. The strongest winds are expected along the
base of the Blue Mountains and on higher terrain like the Horse
Heaven Hills and Simcoe Mountains. Winds will decrease Monday night.
Tuesday will see the system departing in the morning and a ridge
will build over the area. A chance of lingering light snow showers
will continue in the mountains Tuesday with the lower elevations
dry. Tuesday night will be dry. Pressure gradients will remain tight
Tuesday afternoon and 15 to 25 mph winds are expected in the
Columbia Basin in the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures
Monday will be in the 50s with 40s in the mountains. Tuesday will be
a degree or two cooler. Perry/83
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Ensemble and deterministic
guidance are in excellent agreement that an upper-level ridge will
build into the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Mostly clear skies
and lighter winds compared to Tuesday will aid radiational cooling
so chilly morning lows in the lower 20s to lower 30s will be
possible, with the coldest temperatures in high mountain valleys and
central Oregon. The ridge will continue to amplify through Thursday
with warm, dry weather forecast. Slight differences in ridge
strength are apparent when examining ensemble means as well as 12Z
deterministic runs. Currently, the ECMWF is advertising the
strongest ridge, with correspondingly higher afternoon temperatures
across the forecast area when compared to other guidance. EFI values
in the 0.5-0.9 range suggest the potential for warm highs Thursday
and Friday compared to model climatology, and widespread high
temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s are forecast by the NBM
for Thursday and Friday for our major population centers.
Guidance starts to diverge somewhat by Friday afternoon regarding
details of the pattern, though ensembles and deterministic runs all
show some flavor of a shortwave and weakening frontal boundary
arriving Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, and model agreement
is certainly better than it was this time yesterday. Cluster
analysis reveals a troughing patter is favored by ensembles through
the weekend, though differences in strength, track, and timing are
evident. This is mirrored in deterministic runs with the ECMWF
currently favoring the wettest pattern. As a result of model
uncertainty, have opted to stick with a slight chance of rain and
snow for the mountains Friday through Sunday, though confidence is
low in details at this point. Plunkett/86
AVIATION...00Z TAFs...CIGS will lower and thicken tonight as a
storm system approaches. Areas of rain and high mountain snow will
develop with the bulk of it over the mountains and Cascade east
slopes though some rain possible at the terminal sites. MVFR CIGS
will be possible in rain which will be mostly after midnight through
Monday morning. Winds will be the primary concern with widespread SW-
W winds of 25-40 kt beginning around sunrise Monday and peaking
Monday afternoon. Some gusts of 50+ kt are likely. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 57 44 56 36 / 10 60 30 30
ALW 59 46 57 37 / 0 70 50 30
PSC 62 49 60 40 / 0 50 20 0
YKM 61 40 54 33 / 10 70 60 30
HRI 62 47 59 36 / 10 40 20 10
ELN 56 39 49 33 / 10 70 70 40
RDM 57 40 52 26 / 10 50 70 40
LGD 58 39 51 31 / 10 60 70 60
GCD 55 38 52 29 / 0 50 30 40
DLS 61 48 55 41 / 10 90 90 70
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for ORZ509.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday for ORZ041-505-510-
511.
High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday for ORZ044-507-
508.
WA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday for WAZ024-026.
High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday for WAZ027>029-
521.
Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for WAZ520.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...78