Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/03/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
939 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will increase overnight ahead of low pressure which will
cross New York on Sunday. Expect rain and snow in the valleys
and wet snow over the higher terrain on Sunday. Snow showers
diminish Sunday night with some clouds and breezy and cool
conditions lingering into Monday, as deepening low pressure
slowly exits to the east.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...As of 930 PM EDT, a period of clear skies, light wind
and a very dry air mass allowed temps to drop rapidly in some
areas after sunset, with current temps in the mid/upper 20s
across portions of the southwest Adirondacks, and lower/mid 30s
within portions of the upper Hudson Valley and some sheltered
high terrain areas of western New England. Meanwhile, temps
remain somewhat elevated (upper 30s to lower/mid 40s) within
portions of the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region, where some
wind lingered.
High and mid level clouds are gradually overspreading the region
from the west, so temps will gradually level off across areas
which experienced quick decoupling this evening, while falling
slowly in other areas. Most lows overnight will be in the mid
20s to lower/mid 30s, although may fluctuate depending on
thickness of cloud cover and light wind that occurs.
Latest hi-res near term guidance (RAP13/HRRR) suggests
precipitation may be a bit slower to reach western areas, so
decreased PoPs slightly through daybreak (now generally in the
chance or slight chance range for the western Mohawk Valley and
eastern Catskills), then increasing after sunrise. Additional
minor tweaks to timing (possibly delayed further) may be needed
with subsequent updates overnight.
Previous discussion follows...
After a mostly sunny day, clouds increase tonight ahead of low
pressure which will cross New York on Sunday. Model guidance varies
in timing of the start of precipitation with the 12Z HRRR on the
faster side and the 12Z NAM slower with the 12Z GFS in between. A
blend of guidance suggest that precipitation reaches the western
Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills and mid Hudson Valley by 8AM
Sunday. This initial precipitation may be all snow as forecast
vertical temperature profiles support snow and this is the colder
time of the day before the diurnal rise. There will likely be some
accumulation toward daybreak across at least the higher elevations.
Lows tonight from the upper 20s northwest to Mid 30s southern border.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The precipitation spreads eastward Sunday morning across the
rest of the area as the shortwave quickly closes off up to
500hPa and strong cyclonic vorticity advection results in
stronger forcing for ascent. Guidance also indicates that the
cold pool aloft ranges near -30C which could support sufficient
instability to generate bandlets that produce isolated heavier
bands of precipitation. Depending on where these bandlets
develop, we cannot rule out a period of wet snow during the day
Sunday at lower elevations. Also if any breaks of sun develop,
12z NAM indicates some surface based cape will develop so some
brief heavy snow/snow pellet or small hail showers would be
possible.
Tough forecast for Sunday as wet bulb effects should cap high
temperature and current guidance may be too warm. Wet-bulb zero
heights drop to around 1500ft on Sunday so we capped high
temperatures above 1500ft to 36F. Precipitation will likely be all
snow above this level although it may not accumulate much during the
afternoon. Highs on Sunday from the 30s in the hill towns to mid 40s
in the valleys.
Winds shift to the north and northwest Sunday afternoon and
evening as a secondary low develops south of New England which
will advect cooler air into the region and could favor any rain
changing to snow as we approach sunset. Wrap around snow showers
in the evening should diminish after Midnight. Some additional
accumulation is possible even in valley areas. Northwesterly
breeze and mostly cloudy skies overnight should prevent
temperatures from cooling too much. Lows Sunday night will range
from the 20s in the hill towns to the low to mid 30s in the
valleys.
Monday looks to be breezy and a little colder than normal with a
brisk northwest flow making it feel colder. Morning clouds should
give way to afternoon sunshine as a weak upper level ridge tries to
build in. Highs on Monday mainly in the 40s with some 30s in the
high terrain and 50s in the mid Hudson Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday should turn out to be the only mainly dry day of the long
term period as flat upper-level flow and surface high pressure will
be in control of the weather. This should be a day where we mix out
fairly well under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs should reach
the upper 40s to upper 50s. Some places could reach 60.
During Tuesday night through Wednesday, a broad upper-level trough
will develop across the central CONUS. An upper-level shortwave
trough will progress east-northeastward from the Ohio Valley toward
the mid-Atlantic Coast and send a surface low off the mid-Atlantic
coast. There will be plenty of moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico
and also the Atlantic into this system for widespread rainfall. The
question remains the location of the northern and western edge of
this precipitation shield as an area of high pressure across
southeastern Canada will aid in advecting drier air in from the
north. Overall blend of guidance suggests areas south and east of
Albany will have the best chance for precipitation so will include
high likely to categorical pops there with still enough confidence
for likely pops elsewhere. With the clouds, rainfall and easterly
flow, high temperatures were lowered mainly into the 40s to perhaps
lower 50s. Some higher elevation areas may only reach the upper 30s
where some wet snowflakes may mix in at the onset late Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning.
We should receive a break in precipitation Wednesday night before
the large, broad upper-level trough slowly pushes eastward across
the region Thursday through Saturday. A surface boundary will
approach the region Thursday where strong upper-level dynamics will
support another widespread rainfall across the region. A secondary
surface low may also develop along the front along the East Coast
and provide additional forcing for ascent. Moderate to locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with precipitable water values over 1 inch
(around 2 standard deviations above normal). Highs Thursday will
once again be in the upper 30s to lower 50s.
As the occluded front pushes to our east on Friday, we should warm
up nicely prior to the arrival of cooler air by Saturday. As the
upper-level cold pool arrives overhead, convective rain showers will
be possible both days with the daytime the more likely time for
activity. Should some activity linger into the overnight, some wet
snowflakes may mix in across higher elevations. After highs Friday
in the upper 40s to lower 60s, highs Saturday will settle back to
the upper 30s to lower 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z/Mon...High pressure will depart the region tonight
as a disturbance pushes through tomorrow. VFR conditions will
continue through tonight with some high cirrus clouds this
evening, then mid- level clouds developing and thickening
overnight.
Precipitation with this disturbance will begin from southwest to
northeast roughly 14-18z/Sun. Precipitation will be primarily
rain, though snow may mix in briefly at the onset at KALB/KPSF.
Ceilings will likely be high end MVFR or low end VFR at the
onset of precipitation, then lower to MVFR and possibly even IFR
during the afternoon. The higher confidence site for IFR is at
KPSF, but could occur at KALB/KPOU as well but confidence is
lower. Rain will begin to taper off or become more showery
between 20-24z, but low ceilings should linger for a time.
Wind will be mainly light at 5 kt or less at various directions
through Sunday afternoon.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN...RA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A ridge of high pressure will crest across the area later today
into this evening bringing fair and seasonable conditions with
winds gradually diminishing. Clouds increase tonight ahead of
low pressure which will cross New York on Sunday. Expect rain
and snow in the valleys and wet snow over the higher terrain on
Sunday. Snow showers diminish Sunday night with some clouds and
breezy cool conditions lingering into Monday as deepening low
pressure slowly exits to the east.
Winds should diminish quickly this evening and Maximum RH
values tonight rise to 70 to 90 percent tonight with rain and
snow pushing into the region starting early tomorrow morning and
continuing into the day on Sunday. Steady precipitation during
Sunday should keep RH values between 70 and 100 percent during
the day. Light winds are forecast for most of Sunday but should
increase from the northwest Sunday night. RH values rise Sunday
night to 80 to 100 percent.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rain and snow will be possible at times Sunday and Sunday
night. One half inch of liquid or less is forecast through
Monday with the highest amounts over the higher elevations of
the Catskills, southern Green Mountains and Berkshires. Mainly
dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday. Streams should stay
within banks into Wednesday. Beyond that, moderate to locally
heavy rainfall will be possible later in the week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...SND/Speciale
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...Speciale
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
958 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022
00 UTC high resolution guidance continues to consolidate on a
narrow band of heavy snow from west central through south central
North Dakota. The most favored location appears to have shifted
slightly to the south and east with the most recent guidance, and
includes areas near Killdeer to the I-94 corridor through Morton
County, and continuing south and east through areas near Linton
and Ashley. But there is still some uncertainty on the exact
location of the heaviest snow, which will likely not be known
until the early stages of the event. A narrow corridor of 2 to 4
inches seems likely, and would not be surprised to see pockets
around 6 inches given the favorable dynamic and thermodynamic
parameters discussed in the previous update discussion.
Surrounding areas could also see around an inch or two of snow
accumulation, but the combination of lighter rates interacting
with warmer ground temperatures should help limit impacts outside
the heaviest snowfall. A Special Weather Statement has been issued
to highlight the heavy snow and potential travel impacts Sunday
morning.
UPDATE Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022
For this update, QPF was weighted slightly more toward high-
resolution guidance, and the latest iteration of NBM snow ratios
were utilized, which were slightly higher. This results in around
a one inch amplification of the highest forecast snow amounts late
tonight through Sunday morning. Recent analysis of rapid refresh
model data shows strong omega through a deep layer with steep
lapse rates, including through the DGZ. Most 12 UTC HREF members
and subsequent runs of the HRRR show maximum QPF as high as one
half inch. There is decent consensus across both convective
allowing and global scale ensemble systems that the most favored
area for the QPF maximum lies from approximately Highway 85
between Watford City and Belfield to the Missouri River south of
Interstate 94, though it will likely be much narrower than this
entire span. This corridor is the most likely area that could
experience a few hours of heavy snowfall early Sunday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022
Main forecast highlight in the short term period will be rain and
snow developing across much of western and central North Dakota
tonight and into the day Sunday.
Currently, S/WV mid level ridge moving east into the Northern
Plains with a potent mid level S/WV trough approaching central
Montana. Surface high pressure over the central Dakotas early this
afternoon with developing low pressure off to our west associated
with the mid level trough. Temperatures currently range from 32F
at Rolla where low level cloud cover has been in place for much of
the day, to 50F at Dickinson.
Mid level trough slides east/southeast into eastern Montana this
evening, then across the Dakotas overnight through Sunday morning.
Most CAMs have precipitation starting to creep into western ND
late this evening, with the majority of precipitation falling
between 06-18Z Sunday morning when we will see the best
combination of mid level forcing when Div Q maxes out and low
level lift peaks with strongest isentropic ascent along to just
east of the sfc trough. Will initially see all liquid before the
thermal column saturates and cools, transitioning the
precipitation to either all snow or a rain/snow mix. Highest storm
total QPF is forecast from Watford City southeast through Bismarck
and into the Ashley area, where a quarter upwards to 4 tenths of
an inch will be possible. The 4 tenths would likely occur within a
narrower band if it can develop. Snow will have a tough time
accumulating with sfc temperatures around freezing and now that
our ground has warmed up this Spring. 1-2 inches is currently
favored with the higher QPF for the above mentioned area. Most
other areas will see a tenth of an inch or so of moisture, though
my northeast looks to miss out on this one with maybe a trace or
just a tad more. Any snow or a rain/snow mix looks to switch back
to all rain later Sunday morning as we warm.
Wrap around moisture and some additional mid level forcing will
see a continued chance for rain Sunday afternoon, though with
chances decreasing through the day. On the backside of the sfc
trough, northwest winds will increase over southwestern ND, but
based on BUFKIT analysis looks to stay below advisory criteria.
Lastly, with the cooler air drawn into our region, we will see
highs Sunday about 10 degrees colder than today.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022
The long term period starts out on the mild and dry side with
zonal flow aloft for Monday along with increasing southerly return
flow behind Sunday night`s sfc high. Though it will be breezy,
temperatures will warm nicely, ranging in the lower 50s east to
lower 60s west.
Dynamic mid/upper level wave then approaches and moves through the
Northern Plains region Tuesday through Wednesday, bringing an
extended period of strong winds, cooler temperatures, and periods
of rain and snow. For winds, I leaned towards the higher end of
guidance based on the sfc gradient depicted, using a blend of the
NBM 4.1 and NBM 90 percentile. The periods of precipitation will
come in several waves, with lead embedded impulses ejecting out
ahead of the main upper low, then more embedded energy rotating
around then behind the low as moves across the region. With
temperatures right around freezing and above, and with
temperatures aloft cooling, precip type is going to be tricky,
and we will have periods of all rain, a rain/snow mix, and some
periods of all snow.
Latest WPC guidance really cut QPF down from what the mid shift
had, maybe too much. For now left it be and we will see what
happens tonight when new guidance comes out. Being it was 5 days
out, will see what the trends are the next few cycles. It should
be noted that ensembles haven`t really deviated much from the past
several runs from their 48 or 72 hour precip totals, so wouldn`t
be surprised to see values go back up some.
Upper level ridge rebuilds for the end of next week, resulting in
a nice warming trend and mainly dry weather. Highs by Saturday
look to be back well into the 50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 957 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022
VFR conditions are expected this evening. A low pressure system
will begin to bring rain and snow along with lowering ceilings
across western and central North Dakota late tonight through
Sunday morning. The greatest impacts are expected at KDIK and
KBIS, where periods of moderate to heavy snow could reduce
visibility to IFR/LIFR levels. Lower probabilities of lighter
precipitation exist at other terminals. MVFR to IFR ceilings
should prevail through Sunday morning, with slight improvements by
the end of the forecast period. Northwest winds will increase to
around 15-20 kts across western North Dakota Sunday afternoon.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1155 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022
.AVIATION...
Widespread region of precipitation will steadily advance across the
area early this morning. Lowest restrictions at IFR to potential
LIFR during this time, within mainly snow although marginal
temperatures may still afford a mix with rain at time in Detroit.
Precipitation tapers through 09z, leaving IFR to low MVFR stratus
for the remainder of the morning period. High coverage of stratocu
will exist into the afternoon hours Sunday within a cold northwest
flow, with a diurnal improvement in ceiling height toward low VFR.
Winds remain modest from the northwest throughout the daylight
period.
For DTW...Potential exists for a brief burst of heavier convective
snow showers early this morning /through 08z/. A quick accumulation
of snow remains plausible, mainly confined to grassy surfaces as
temperatures reside above freezing.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High for ceilings at or below 5000 ft through Sunday morning.
Moderate Sunday afternoon.
* High for ptype transition from rain to snow early this morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 849 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022
UPDATE...
Noted increase in forced ascent within the northern flank of a
compact low pressure system ejecting east-southeast across far
northern IN on pace to glance across southeast Michigan for several
hours early tonight. Latest obs suggest a distribution in
temp/dewpoint that lends to an initial ptype of rain prior to 03z M-
59 southward, with a mix to snow northward. Brief duration window
that targets 03z-06z for the possibility of a burst of higher
intensity rates as a maximum in larger scale vertical motion
temporarily capitalizes on lower static stability. This response
remains evident in both radar trends and hi res model guidance, with
greater likelihood M-59 southward. Overall brevity of the setup and
marginal temperatures that still reside above freezing preclude
greater concern for meaningful accumulation on paved surfaces, but a
localized inch or more certainly plausible on elevated/grassy areas
before snow chances rapidly diminish by 07z-08z.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022
DISCUSSION...
Mid-level water vapor imagery shows an impressive compact mid-level
wave over northern Illinois that produced periods of heavy and wet
snow that led to accumulation totals ranging between 2 to 4 inches
this morning over northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin despite
surface temperatures at or slightly above freezing. The impressive
snow rates were able to overcome melting from warmer ground
temperature. Even now, surface observations report a rain/snow mix on
the east side of Illinois with temperatures in the upper 30s. This
wave is expected to maintain strength as it travels eastward and will
move across the southern Michigan border between 00Z - 06Z Sun.
Surface low pressure will strengthen slightly in response to the
closer proximity to the upper-level wave and will bring a slight
increase in h850 temperatures just prior to the onset of
precipitation. Virga will start filling in as mid-level moisture
works to overcome a very dry layer of air around h800, with PoPs then
turning likely, filling in from west to east between 21Z - 00Z.
Warmer boundary layer and surface temperatures will greatly limit
snowfall accumulation potential relative to our Midwestern
counterparts given a several hour window to see precipitation
initially start as rain or rain/snow, especially I94 south. This is
supported by the latest RAP & NAM, which has wet bulb zero heights
rising to around 2kft in response to the push of waa ahead of the
low. The HRRR and ARW does display a weaker push of waa ahead of the
low, keeping wet bulb zero heights below 1kft supporting mostly snow,
with a brief hour window of rain or rain/snow as wetbulbing ensues.
Given the strength of the wave and building mid-level lapse rates
between 6-7 C/km, it is plausible that snow (or periods of ice
pellets) can survive any lower layer melting regardless of better wbz
heights, with the convective components in place. Overall, it is
clear that ptype will be highly sensitive to subtle differences in
the thermal profile and convective elements. The most likely scenario
is the former with a period of rain or rain/snow transitioning to
snow, where any snow accumulation is limited to elevated grassy
surfaces. A faster transition to snow with better snow rates is the
less likely scenario, but is in play and can lead to a quick slushy
accumulation on roadways despite above freezing ground temperatures,
with totals holding under an inch. All precipitation is expected to
exit from west to east between 06-09Z as the wave vacates the region.
Overnight lows will drop to or just below freezing.
A second compact wave will enter the northern Plains early Sunday
morning and will enhance shortwave ridging across the Great Lakes
late Sunday into early Monday. Prior to the better ridging filling
in, there will be a small window to see some isolated rain showers
Sunday afternoon into early evening with the northwest flow pulling
moisture off of Lake Michigan & diurnal heating. A slight chance
(15%) for PoPs has been added during this window. Precipitation
turns likely again once this wave moves over southern Michigan.
There will be a chance for rain/snow turning to all rain with this
wave centered Monday morning into early Monday afternoon.
An active weather pattern will continue through the week as a strong
Pacific jet arrives onshore on Monday. Low pressure is expected to
develop on the lee side of the Canadian rockies as the upper-level
jet extends midland into the Midwest through the midweek period, with
an expansive upper-level low expected to follow suit. Initial
precipitation will be possible late Tuesday into early Wednesday
given increasing isentropic ascent ahead of the low, with periods of
rain then filling in later in the day on Wednesday through Friday as
the low meanders around the state and brings multiple rounds of mid-
level waves with it. The first window for likely widespread rain
enters late Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening as a strong
sheared wave moves over the state with support from left exit
dynamics of the approaching jet. Near normal temperatures are
expected as the dynamic system enters Michigan, with increasing
confidence that a period of below normal temperatures (40s for highs)
will be possible as northwest flow takes hold behind the departing
low to end the week.
MARINE...
Broad area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will be briefly
interrupted this evening into tonight as a compact surface low
tracks east across the southern MI border. This low will bring a mix
of rain and snow as it tracks through the area and will also flip
winds from southerly to northwesterly by Sunday morning. High
pressure fills back in for Sunday and Sunday night with another weak
low slated to traverse the southern Great Lakes on Monday.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......99
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......DRK
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
612 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022
.AVIATION...
Winds at the moment are mainly SE at DRT and N to NE at the I-35
terminals, where they`ll veer slightly more towards the east
overnight before becoming light and variable to calm towards
sunrise. Low level moisture will increase overnight, and chances have
increased for CIG development to push into the San Antonio terminals
from the south on Sunday morning. Some fog may also develop at the
I-35 terminals. MVFR is most likely, but can`t rule out a brief
period of IFR CIGS with the highest chance at KSSF. We currently
expect cloud development to remain just south of KAUS but confidence
is low to moderate and an introduction of MVFR could occur in later
TAFs. At KDRT, confidence in MVFR has actually decreased but it
remains possible for a few hours before CIGS lift and scatter as
usual by mid to late morning. Winds increase to near 15 knots during
the day with a few 20-23 knot gusts there.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
A weak frontal boundary is pushing across South Central Texas this
afternoon. Latest surface analysis and satellite data put the front
just to the south I-10 and US 57 as of 230 PM. Northerly winds are
in place in the wake of the front while ranging from 5 to 12 mph
with gusts around 15 to 20 mph. Winds are forecast to decrease later
this afternoon to 10 mph or less over most places. Otherwise, expect
highs in the mid to upper 80s and even lower 90s to the southwest of
San Antonio.
For tonight, clear skies are in store for this evening through the
overnight hours with low level moisture returning late tonight into
Sunday morning. Low level clouds are expected to develop across the
coastal plains and along the Rio Grande as moisture pulling is
greater over those areas. There is a possibility for patchy fog to
develop across the coastal plains around sunrise under light and
variable winds. Lows are expected to range from the lower 50s across
the Hill Country to 60s along the Rio Grande.
Clouds will burn off by late Sunday morning leading to mostly sunny
and sunny skies. A southerly flow returns across all areas as a
surface high pressure system over the Middle Mississippi Valley
continues to push to the east allowing southerly winds to take
control of the local area. This translate to more moisture polling
and will also result in warmer temperatures. Sunday`s high are
expected to reach the mid to upper 80s across the Hill Country with
90s over parts of the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande.
A dryline is forecast to push across northeast Mexico late Sunday
afternoon and evening. The HRRR and FV3 bring isolated storms across
the western part of Val Verde County. SPC Day 2 Severe Weather
Outlook highlights this particular area for the potential for
isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity with main hazards
being large hail and damaging winds. Activity should come to an end
by midnight.
LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Monday will start off cloudy with a chance of drizzle and isolated
showers beneath the cap. Some weakening of the cap does try and take
place with heating and the approach of the mid and upper level
trough Monday afternoon, and by early Tuesday evening the 3KM NAM
and GFS soundings show the cap eroded through portions of the I-35
corridor and Hill Country. Should this happen scattered deeper
convection would develop across the area with assistance from larger
scale forcing ahead of and in the base of the approaching trough,
including a 110-120KT upper level jet streak, as well as the dryline
and Pacific cold front. Conditional on the cap eroding, a strong to
severe storm potential could be in play given deep layer shear
values of 50-65KT and steep mid level lapse rates of 8 degC/km
producing CAPE of around 2000 J/kg. The Storm Prediction Center
currently has Slight Risk for severe storms highlighted across the
Hill Country as well as along and east of the I-35 corridor from San
Antonio to La Grange, and a Marginal risk south and west of this.
Further refinement of the timing, aerial threat, and hazards will
take place over the next day.
The upper level system passes east of the area Tuesday morning. The
dryline/Pacific front merger looks to hang up near or just east of
the I-35 corridor Tuesday afternoon. Dry and hot conditions are
forecast Tuesday afternoon, especially west of the boundary where
temperatures in the mid and upper 90s are forecast. Near-record high
temperatures are currently forecast at Austin, San Antonio, and Del
Rio.
A deeper trough is forecast to develop through the Plains and
Midwest Wednesday. This will send a second cold front through South
Central Texas Wednesday, modifying temperatures closer to normal
across northern areas Wednesday afternoon and across the entire area
on Thursday. Some cool mornings are also forecast Friday and Saturday
mornings with the dry air in place and surface ridge settling over
the region. Lows in the 40s are forecast, however there is the
potential for some Hill Country spots and drainage areas east of I-35
to dip into the mid to upper 30s.
FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will continue
through this afternoon across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau
where north winds gusting to around 15-20 mph and relative humidity
values in the teens to lower 20s are occurring.
Another elevated to near critical fire weather day is expected on
Sunday mainly across the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande areas due to
low humidity and gusty southerly winds.
Very dry and hot conditions are forecast on Tuesday and westerly
winds may become gusty along and west of the I-35 corridor, producing
near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. A dry cold front
will move through the area on Wednesday, and gusty north winds and
low humidity may produce another near-critical fire weather day. Red
Flag Warnings could be required for portions of the region Tuesday
and Wednesday, especially western areas where antecedent conditions
are drier and recent fires have taken place.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 54 86 61 78 64 / 0 0 - 50 60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 52 86 59 80 62 / 0 0 - 50 60
New Braunfels Muni Airport 54 87 60 82 63 / 0 0 - 40 40
Burnet Muni Airport 54 85 60 78 59 / 0 0 - 50 60
Del Rio Intl Airport 62 92 66 90 62 / 0 0 10 20 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 53 86 60 79 62 / 0 0 - 50 60
Hondo Muni Airport 55 90 61 84 61 / - - - 20 40
San Marcos Muni Airport 53 86 59 80 62 / 0 0 - 40 50
La Grange - Fayette Regional 57 85 62 82 66 / 0 0 10 50 60
San Antonio Intl Airport 57 87 62 80 64 / 0 0 - 30 40
Stinson Muni Airport 59 90 64 84 66 / 0 0 - 30 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term/Aviation...KCW
Long-Term...Quigley
Decision Support...Morris
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
439 PM MDT Sat Apr 2 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Apr 2 2022
Upper disturbance moving across the northern plains on Sunday will
push a surface cold front through the forecast area Sunday
morning. The synoptic forcing will be too far north to support
precipitation, so the main impacts from this system will be windy
conditions and elevated to near critical fire weather. Strongest
winds will occur Sunday morning along/behind the cold front. Hires
HRRR and NAM-3km models show winds gusts in the 50-55 mph range
Sunday morning for areas along/south of Interstate 70 in Colorado
and Kansas. Added a mention of blowing dust in those areas for the
morning hours. Winds are forecast to dramatically decrease in the
afternoon hours and only seeing gusts around 20 mph by mid
afternoon. Despite low humidity values in the afternoon, these
diminishing wind speeds will limit the potential for critical fire
weather conditions. In addition, increasing cloud cover may also
contribute to limited afternoon mixing and cooler temperatures.
For these reasons, opted not to issue any fire weather highlights
but will continue to mention the elevated conditions. Have high
temperatures optimistically in the upper 50s to lower 60s in most
of the area. Into Sunday night, a weak shortwave coming out of the
central Rockies will result in scattered rain/snow showers along
the Palmer Divide, mainly west of our area, but cannot rule out
some of that precipitation making its way into western Kit Carson
or Cheyenne counties of far northeast Colorado, but impacts, if
any, will be minimal.
Upper trough continues to move across the central CONUS on
Monday, but precipitation chances will remain well south of the
area. Surface winds will turn southwest and become breezy by
Monday afternoon as lee trough strengthens in northeast Colorado.
Those winds may be gusting over 30 mph in western portions of the
forecast area. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 60s for
highs and lows Monday night in the 30s.
Next upper system in the progressive pattern will move out of the
northern Rockies and into the adjacent plains Monday night and
Tuesday. A fairly deep cut off upper low is forecast by the
models over the northern plains Tuesday afternoon, with associated
surface cold front moving through the forecast area Tuesday
morning and afternoon. High temperatures will vary greatly across
the front, with lower 70s ahead of it southern areas but upper 50s
behind it in far northern areas. Scattered wraparound rain
showers will develop north of Interstate 70 in the afternoon hours
behind the front. The combination of post frontal pressure rises
and downward momentum transfer with the precipitation may result
in localized strong to potentially damaging wind gusts. Models
showing a corridor of 55-75 mph wind gusts straddling the Kansas
and Nebraska border area and into northeast Colorado during that
time before diminishing in the evening hours. However, winds
increase again overnight, associated with a mid level wind max
rotating around the main upper low. Given the nocturnal timing,
uncertain if the winds will mix to the surface later in the night,
but cannot rule out that possibility. Lows Tuesday night will be
in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Apr 2 2022
Main wx concerns for the extended period will focus on the strong
wind potential for mainly on Wednesday, but could carry into
Thursday. also elevated to near critical fire wx conditions,
especially Wednesday.
Both the latest GFS/ECMWF show a closed upper low passing north of
the cwa midweek into the Thursday timeframe. Strong ridging over the
eastern portion of the country will stall the low somewhat over the
northern Plains/Mississippi Valley. 850/700 mb jet wraps in behind
the 500mb low, overspreading the cwa. Amplified upper ridge moves
off the Rockies into the Plains region by the first half of next
weekend, suggesting a warmup will occur, especially next Saturday
when the upper ridge will likely crest over the region.
At this time it does look like the surface gradient will give an
expansive 30-40 mph to the cwa, but concerns arise as to how much
mixing occurs to 700mb. Inverted-v soundings show the potential to
mix into the 50-60kt range for Wednesday, tapering off slowly on
Thursday. Inherited forecast from previous shift does show some
consistency to current numbers, so this will have to be monitored
for high wind product issuance, as well as blowing dust concerns.
Also for the extended period, dry conditions will ensue and as a
result fire wx concerns are possible. On Wednesday, wind criteria
will be met area-wide, but rh readings range mainly in the mid to
upper teens. Area of concern Wednesday will be areas along/south of
Highway 40 in Kansas. Similar wind criteria met for Thursday, but rh
values ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s, with the focus in
the Greeley/Wichita county area. For Friday, rh values more area-
wide in the mid teens thru the lower 20s. Wind criteria close,
especially west of Highway 25. With warmer conditions expected for
Saturday, mid to upper teens for rh expected with close wind
criteria. Overall, with this level of drying and wind, there could
be a cumulative effect area-wide and the above numbers could be
lower and thus monitored going into the beginning of next week.
For temps, the area will be looking at a warm up for the remainder
of the week, peaking during the first half of next weekend. Looking
for highs Wednesday to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s west,
into the upper 50s to near 60F for eastern locales. On Thursday,
lower to mid 50s. Going into Friday, upper 50s to lower 60s, and for
next Saturday, upper 60s to lower 70s.
Lows during this time will have a range from the mid 20s to lower
30s Wednesday night, 20s for Thursday night, upper 20s to lower 30s
on Friday night and mainly 30s for Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 432 PM MDT Sat Apr 2 2022
VFR conditions are expected at each site through the 00Z TAF
period. Winds will remain southerly through just around sunrise
before winds begin to turn to the NNW around sunrise ahead of an
advancing cold front. Behind the front, winds will noticeably
increase to 20 knots sustained with gusts of 25 to as high 35
knots at times and remain breezy to gusty through the remainder
of the period. LLWS of near 40 knots from the SSW looks possible
at KMCK starting around 07Z as the LLJ increases. LLWS is
expected to come to an end around 11Z just as the front approaches
where another chance for 1-2 hours of LLWS is possible at each
site; will let another run of guidance come in to best anticipate
the exact timing of the front which is when LLWS may be introduced
in the TAF for Sunday morning.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...TT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
727 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 727 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022
Weak high pressure will build over the Ozarks tonight, resulting
in clearing skies and light winds across central Illinois. Warmer
conditions are on tap for Sunday, with highs in the upper 50s or
low 60s. Another fast moving system will bring rain chances
Sunday evening into the overnight hours. Only light rain
accumulation is expected from this system, less than a quarter
inch.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 727 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022
Gusty winds are continuing in the wake of the earlier cold front,
but have settled down to 10 mph or less northwest of the Illinois
River. These will diminish over the next few hours and should only
be 5-10 mph by midnight. Lingering stratocumulus persists from
Peoria to Lincoln southeast, though this is expected to fade off
before midnight.
Recent forecast updates were for wind/cloud trends, but
temperatures still appear on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022
A surface low pressure system continues to track east across
northern IL, located west of Kankakee at 2pm/19z, with its cold
front slicing through the ILX CWA between the I-55 and I-57
corridors. Scattered light rain remains a possibility along/ahead
of the cold front for the next hour or two before the front
departs to the east. Gusty winds will continue behind the cold
front, with a few isolated gusts as high as 35 mph, but gusts will
taper off as the system departs this evening. As weak high
pressure develops over the Ozarks tonight, winds become light and
skies clear, dropping low temperatures to near freezing once
again.
The latest RAP analysis shows another shortwave positioned over
Idaho/western Montana early Saturday afternoon. This wave will end
up tracking quite similarly to today`s system, but the shortwave
and associated surface low aren`t expected to reach Iowa until
Sunday evening. This will leave the high pressure in control
during the day Sunday, with light winds and seasonable
temperatures. Cloud cover is expected to increase in the afternoon
as synoptic scale ascent increases ahead of the next shortwave.
While this ascent could spur some patchy showers NW of the IL
River on Sunday afternoon, the better precipitation chances hold
off until Sunday evening/night.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022
Rain chances from the next shortwave increase Sunday night as
scattered to widespread showers develop along/ahead of the cold
front. With minimal instability, no thunderstorms are anticipated.
Similar to the Saturday rain event, precip amounts look light,
less than a quarter inch. Persistently southerly flow through the
overnight hours (Sunday into Monday) will help keep low
temperatures mild, in the mid-40s. As the precip progresses from
west to east overnight, a few showers may linger into early Monday
morning east of I-57. Weak high pressure moves in behind that
system, resulting in winds weakening through the day on Monday.
Despite the cold front passing through Sunday night, temperatures
remain seasonable on Monday. While there is still a slight chance
of precip mentioned in the forecast south of I-70 for Monday
night, the latest guidance suggests the front stalls far enough
south that any precip should remain south of our CWA.
Into the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, two disturbances will
provide additional precipitation chances. The first is a
shortwave moving through the Ohio Valley on Monday night, the
second is a deeper wave digging into the northern Plains,
resulting in impacts to central Illinois Tuesday night. Forecast
precip amounts from both systems have continued to trend downward.
This is due to a few factors. First, the shortwave moving through
the Ohio Valley continues to trend southward, with the latest
guidance suggesting precip from that wave confined to I-72 and
southward. Second, the two upper level disturbances remain out of
phase with one another, and the system moving through the Ohio
Valley may actually act to limit moisture return for the system
that develops over the upper Midwest. In response to the northern
wave, a surface low deepens across the northern Plains/upper
Midwest on Tuesday night. Precip develops across a relatively
narrow warm sector, which sweeps through central IL overnight into
Wednesday. A few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may be sufficient to
provide a few rumbles of thunder with that precip, though models
have remained inconsistent in the strength of the instability
(varying between non-existent to marginal). Total QPF amounts from
these two systems are now forecast to be around 0.50". With the
Ohio Valley system expected to track further to the south, the air
mass across central IL will remain largely unchanged on Tuesday,
resulting in another day of seasonable temperatures.
While Wednesday may start off wet, there looks to be plenty of dry
time in the afternoon as the dry slot pivots around the system and
through central IL. Despite being behind the cold front, clearing
skies and breezy SW winds could actually keep high temperatures
near 60 on Wednesday. An early look at model soundings for
Wednesday afternoon suggests that dewpoints provided by the
blended guidance may be too high, as a deep, well-mixed PBL
develops. Will keep an eye on this and potentially make
adjustments in future forecast packages. A shot of colder air is
expected to advect into the area Wednesday night as 850 temps drop
from above 0 to around -5 degC by Thursday morning. Through the
end of the work week, the system is forecast to become vertically
stacked, with both the closed upper low and occluded surface low
slowly meandering over Wisconsin. This will result in breezy WNW
flow, below average temperatures, and scattered light precip
chances for both Thursday and Friday before the system finally
departs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2022
MVFR cloud deck is thinning out some in the wake of the recent
cold front passage, and should scatter out during the period
through 02Z. Forecast soundings are hinting at potential for some
low cloud development in the area around KBMI/KDEC/KCMI toward
sunrise. Will keep an eye on this since the various models are
not in good agreement on this, but will include a scattered cloud
layer around 1000 feet at these sites in the new TAF set.
Strongest winds are in eastern Illinois immediately behind the
front, and gusts 20-30 knots likely to linger for a couple more
hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...Erwin/Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Erwin
LONG TERM...Erwin
AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1100 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 958 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022
Rain has departed the area. Mixing and momentum transfer has
resulted in gusts approaching 35-40 mph at times this evening.
This should subside within the next few hours as gradient and
mixing decrease. Forecast is on track.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022
A quick round of showers will move through the area, especially
north, through this afternoon into the evening as a cold front and
compact upper wave move through the region. HRRR depicts additional
development to the south of current showers, and will have to carry
some pops throughout the area, although based on current radar
mosaic this may be a bit overdone. Forecast soundings show a bit of
a mismatch between midlevel and low level moisture at times,
accounting for what should be a relatively quick hit of light precip.
Dry conditions will return late this evening, although trapped
stratus will likely linger overnight into early Sunday,
particularly in the northeast, which along with winds staying up
should keep temps from dropping much below the low 30s, which is
roughly in line with NBM.
Strong flow just off the surface will promote some gustiness this
afternoon and especially this evening into the early overnight, with
gusts of around 30KT likely at times. This will taper off late
tonight into Sunday.
A brief period of high pressure will bring clearing and a bit of
warming to the area tomorrow, with plenty of sun by late in the day
likely to bring high temps well into the 50s to low 60s, which is
near to just above NBM and roughly in line with expectations given
low level thickness values.
Another compact low pressure system will begin to move into the
region Sunday night, requiring a return of rain chances to the
forecast, particularly late. Despite more consistent deep moisture,
speed of the system will again lead to relatively light QPF toward
the end of the short term moving into the long term period.
&&
.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022
An unsettled long term period is expected for central Indiana.
Monday will see a weakening low pressure system exit the area,
leaving behind a front not far south of the area. Will have some low
PoPs mainly during the morning hours with the exiting system.
A southern stream upper wave will move northeast and interact with
the surface front south of the area, bringing rain chances back to
the area as soon as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. Models
can`t seem to get a handle on how much moisture will be available,
but for now high chance category to likely category PoPs are
reasonable for Tuesday.
Following quickly behind will be a large upper low, which will
eventually settle across the area by Friday. Just ahead of the low
will be a surface system which should tap into some moisture
advection to bring likely PoPs to the area later Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Current timing of the system has the cold front moving
through early in the day, which would limit instability and thus
thunder.
With the upper low settling in Thursday into Friday, chances for
showers will continue. The low will begin to move east on Saturday,
and it may be far enough away for Saturday to be dry. Will go dry
for now with low confidence.
Seasonable temperatures are expected until the upper low moves in,
then cooler than normal readings will return.
&&
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022
IMPACTS:
-- Wind gusts 25-30 knot subsiding later tonight.
-- MVFR ceilings persisting until early morning
DISCUSSION:
West-northwesterly winds will remain gusty tonight subsiding toward
morning as mixing decreases. Lingering low-level moisture will cause
MVFR stratus that may persist into morning, but exact timing to a
return of VFR conditions is uncertain. Ligher northwesterly winds
will shift to southeasterly toward the end of the TAF period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...BRB
Short Term...Nield
Long Term...50
Aviation...BRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
740 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2022
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-level trof extending
from northern Ontario to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Within the
trof, there are at least 2 shortwaves of note. One well-defined
shortwave was over northern IL. A second less well-defined wave was
dropping into northern MN. These features supported widespread -sn,
mixed with some -ra, across much of Upper MI during the morning. The
steadier pcpn is shifting to eastern Upper MI this aftn, but the
upstream wave is aiding some showery pcpn, likely further aided by
modest daytime heating, spreading out of ne MN with some development
into western Upper MI as well. Temps are currently in the lwr 30s to
lwr 40s F, coolest e, though a break in the clouds has allowed temps
to shoot up toward 50F in southern Houghton County.
Aided by daytime heating and MN shortwave, there will likely be an
expansion -shrasn across the western fcst area thru the late
aftn/early evening. Otherwise, shortwave trof will move across the
area and exit to the e during the night. As it does so, expect
-shrasn to end from w to e. However, with indications of a subtle
wave to drop across Lake Superior and eastern Upper MI
overnight/early Sun, some isold -shsn may linger into the early
morning hrs e half. Quite a bit of low-level moisture is currently
present and that will linger tonight even though weak sfc trof/cold
front moves across the area. Thus, expect considerable cloudiness to
persist thru the night. This will keep temps from falling any lwr
than the 25-32F range for most locations.
High pres building se into northern Ontario on Sun will extend a sfc
high pres ridge s into Upper MI during the aftn. As a result, expect
a quiet day. Fcst soundings indicate plenty of low-level moisture
lingering on Sun. So, expect considerable cloudiness lingering from
tonight and also developing and filling in where breaks lead to
stronger heating in the morning. There are some hints that the
daytime heating may lead to isold aftn -shra, particularly with the
HRRR. That seems unlikely given relatively shallow moisture depth. A
lake breeze component to the wind will develop during the day, and
this should lead to some decrease in clouds for lakeside locations
along Lake Superior in the aftn, typical as we head toward the
stable lake season. With expectation of abundant cloud cover, temps
should be held down to the mid 30s to mid 40s F, coolest e along
Lake Superior under light gradient nw wind across the lake ahead of
sfc high pres ridge and warmest s central. If there is more sun than
expected, some interior locations could rise to around 50F.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2022
Weak mid-level ridging extending northward over the Upper Peninsula
exits the region early Sunday night with a weak open shortwave
quickly filling in from the west behind. A band of precip then
spreads into the western and south-central UP by midnight. The
heaviest QPF is expected south of the forecast area as the main low
core moves across Wisconsin, but up to 0.10" of liquid equivalent is
forecast for the south-central region by Monday morning. Forecast
soundings support the primary p-type through Monday mid-day as snow,
with a couple of inches of wet snowfall is possible in southern
Menominee County. Guidance progs enough warming to mix in some rain
showers by late Monday morning and into the early afternoon hours
with precip chances ending by the evening.
A relatively drier air mass that moves across the UP Monday night
persists into Tuesday to create a 24hr period of dry weather.
South-southeasterly 850-500 mb warm air advection will help to
increase temperatures to about 5 degrees above seasonal normals
Tuesday. This WAA will occur out ahead of a Northern Pacific low
that is progged to phase with a shortwave moving out of the Central
Rockies over the Northern Plains. The low then further deepens
moving eastward into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday night.
Precipitation is expected to begin under the warm east-southeasterly
flow late Tuesday night and spread northeastward into the eastern UP
through the day Wednesday. The primary precip type remains on track
for mostly rain with the initial warm front-associated precip band
through Wednesday evening. QPF enhanced by orographic lift based on
the current guidance tracking the low could come into effect for the
central UP areas on the upslope of easterly flow for Wednesday.
Higher-res guidance should start to coming in over the next 48 hours
and begin to provide additional confidence on where this heaviest
QPF could fall. Expect continued changes to the QPF forecast as a
result.
A transition to snow as the primary p-type is possible later
Wednesday night in western zones under the colder low center and
increased cooler northeasterly flow. The central and eastern zones
are currently favored for a downturn in precip amounts from dry slot
impacts for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. More showery
conditions return into Thursday midday and later with some lake
enhancement possible under backing northeasterly flow further adding
to storm total QPF in the northern UP. Precip chances for residual
wrap-around showers last into Friday. The main message at this point
for late Tuesday night through Friday is to expect a period of
moderate, locally heavy, rain areawide on Wednesday with increasing
chances for a more rain/snow mix Wednesday night then fair chances
for continued showers Thursday into Friday. Shower coverage
decreases region-wide by Friday night for a return of drier
conditions currently supported into early next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 731 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2022
Abundant low-level moisture will linger over the area for much of
this fcst period, and there will be some -rasn into the evening. At
IWD, expect MVFR cigs to prevail thru much of the fcst period.
Developing upslope westerly winds at CMX should result in MVFR
cigs to occasional IFR cigs tonight into Sunday morning along with
MVFR vis in BR tonight. At SAW, expect a period of LIFR cigs
should set in this evening before improvement to IFR, then MVFR
cigs by Sunday morning. MVFR to IFR vis in BR is expected for
much of tonight at SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 334 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2022
Light winds of 20 kts or less are expected to remain over the lake
until Tuesday. Easterly winds begin to increase over Lake Superior
Tuesday evening and become 20-30 knots on Wednesday from a low
pressure system moving through the Upper Midwest. The low pressure
then moves into Lower Michigan by Thursday and backs winds to north-
northeasterly, strongest over central and western Lake Superior.
Low end gales are possible Thursday night as the low begins to
move towards the East Coast. Winds then further back to north-
northwesterly by Friday afternoon and decrease to 20 to 30 kts.
Ridging moves over Lake Superior Friday night helps to decrease
northerly winds below 20 knots Friday night.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...NLy
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...NLy
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
305 PM MDT Sat Apr 2 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Sat Apr 2 2022
1) A cool front will move down the plains tomorrow with an E-W band
of showers developing over the CWA later Sunday afternoon; some
light showers will be possible tonight and tomorrow morning across
the central mtns.
Tonight... Winds will be diurnally drive this afternoon and tonight,
but a cold front will move across KCOS and KPUB tomorrow morning
causing gusty northerly winds and increasing mid level cloudiness in
the morning after sunrise. Main concern this evening will be
increasing clouds and moisture over the central mountains as a
baroclinic zone gradually develops E-W over the central part of the
state. Over the PUB CWA, some light showers will likely develop over
the central mtns, mainly N of Cottonwood Pass, with little if any
significant accumulations. Otherwise, it will be a mild night, with
mins generally in the 35-40F range on the plains, and generally 20s
in the mtns and valleys.
Tomorrow...
Boundary is going to become more defined as the day progresses over
the state, with a very good chance of rain/snow showers extending
from the La Garitas, across the N sections of the SLV, the N Sangres
and across the Fremont county/Teller county regions. This
precipitation will then likely extend out across the plains,
especially across El Paso county.
Overall, the best chance for several inches of snow will be across
the higher elevations of the N Sangre De Cristo mountains.
Temps tomorrow over the plains will be cooler tomorrow, with
readings about 10F cooler than today. Over the mtns, temps will be
about 3 to 6F cooler. Breezy north winds will occur with the front
tomorrow, with the stronger winds over the far eastern plains. Winds
will likely go upslope along the I-25 corridor by later in the day.
/Hodanish
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Sat Apr 2 2022
Key messages:
1) Lower elevation rain and higher elevation snow will occur from
Sunday night through Monday over most areas of the CWA. Some thunder
will also be possible, especially over the southern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains.
2) On Tuesday, snow will be possible over the mountains, mainly the
northern Continental Divide and the northern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Some rain showers will occur over the adjacent plains and
northern San Luis Valley. Thunder will be possible.
3) Spotty critical fire weather conditions will be a concern over
areas of the plains for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoon
and early evening. Windy conditions will exist over the plains for
all three days.
4) Snow showers will be possible over the mountains next Saturday.
Detailed discussion:
Sunday night through Monday...
A major shortwave trough to the northeast that is associated with a
finger of the PFJ located to the north of Colorado with a west-east
orientation, will produce an area of mid level convergence over the
CWA between the 500-700mb level. This will allow for an area of
banding precipitation to set up over the northern areas of the San
Luis Valley and extend eastward over areas of the northern Sangre de
Cristo Mountains and lower Arkansas River Valley. This could produce
a significant area of QPF over the counties of Saguache, Custer,
Fremont, Pueblo, Crowley, and Kiowa, depending on where the boundary
of convergence establishes itself. The HRRR tends to favor the
northern portions of Pueblo County and Crowley receiving the highest
amounts, whereas the NAM keeps the banding slightly more southward
over the central portion of Pueblo County and also includes the
northern areas of Otero and Bent Counties. There is not much in the
way of cold air advection occurring with the passage of this wave,
and therefore snow levels will remain relatively high, at around
7000 over the plains and 8000 over the higher terrain. Due to this,
most areas of the plains will see all rain, and it could begin as a
rain/snow mix over the San Luis Valley but then change over to all
snow later in the night. There are going to be some CAPE values
between 100 and 200 J/kg over the southern mountains. Deterministic
models also pick up on a surface low developing over the southern
San Luis Valley, which will help turn winds southerly over the
southern Sangre de Cristo mountains from around 6 PM to 9 PM MDT,
and could help to initiate convection. Thunder will also be possible
elsewhere over the southern mountains and San Luis Valley. The lower
to mid levels will stabilize going further into the night.
Temperatures will be more modified under mostly cloud skies and only
cool to the 30s over most of the plains and teens to 20s for high
country.
All precipitation looks to continue throughout the morning on Monday
and into the afternoon with a few lingering snow showers over the
southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, but should taper off
thereafter. Winds will switch from out of a more southerly direction
and clearing will occur by later in the day, which will allow
temperatures to rebound into the mid and upper 60s over most areas
of the plains and even around 60 for the central San Luis Valley.
Tuesday through Wednesday...
Another perturbation in the longwave trough will send the tail end
of a major shortwave over the region on later in the day on Tuesday.
This will allow for snow showers to begin over the northern
Continental Divide by afternoon and then fill in further to the
southeast over the northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and the
Rampart Range, with a few showers over the adjacent plains and upper
Arkansas river Valley. All precipitation will end by early Wednesday
morning. The tightening of the pressure gradient will increase
southwesterly winds ahead of the trough axis across the southern
plains and coupled with low relative humidity values will result in
critical fire weather conditions for the afternoon and early
evening. Winds were a little under for the NBM and therefore a
blend of the 90th percentile was utilized to enhance these. The
downsloping winds will also allow for temperatures to be much
warmer over the plains on Tuesday, but then passage of the trough
will usher in much cooler temperatures for highs on Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday...
Deterministic model and ensemble data keep things dry on Thursday
and Friday, although winds will be a factor as they remain strong
and gusty out of the north for the plains and San Luis Valley. This
will create spotty areas of critical fire weather concerns for
Thursday afternoon and early evening over most areas of the plains
and the San Luis Valley. As the major shortwave trough downstream
continues to propagate to the east, it will allow for the stronger
winds to also shift further to the east, therefore the eastern
plains will be susceptible to critical or near-critical fire weather
concerns late afternoon and early evening on Friday. Models also
allude to another weaker shortwave trough moving over Colorado on
Saturday, which could result in some light snow showers over the
Central Mountains, yet this is a week out and therefore models are
less reliable at this time and subject to change. -Stewey
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Sat Apr 2 2022
VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. There will be a very low end chance of
showers developing at the very end of this forecast period at all of
the 3 taf sites, with the best chance at KCOS.
Winds will be diurnally driven tonight, but a cold front will move
across KCOS and KPUB tomorrow morning causing gusty northerly winds
and increasing mid level cloudiness in the morning after sunrise.
Winds will likely veer and go upslope at KCOS and KPUB by late
afternoon.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...HODANISH