Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/01/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
955 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area tonight, bringing showers
and isolated thunderstorms through this evening. A few storms
could have strong, gusty winds and heavy downpours. Tomorrow
will be cooler with plenty of clouds and scattered mostly
afternoon showers, with some flurries over higher terrain. High
pressure will bring dry, seasonably cool weather for Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 954 PM EDT...Surface cold front is now just about to
enter the western portion of the forecast area from Central New
York. Ahead of the front, a line of heavy showers and embedded
thunderstorms is located over far eastern New York and western
New England. The heaviest bursts of rainfall is located over
northwestern CT. Despite strong winds aloft (0-6 km bulk shear
of around 50 kts), stable low-levels have been preventing any
strong winds aloft from reaching the surface. Observations from
NYS Mesonet and other ASOS sites have been showing gusts of
25-40 mph have been accompanying some of the heavier bursts, but
winds have not been able to reach strong enough levels to
produce damage. Showers and thunderstorms have been producing
heavy downpours, with some rates over one half inch per hour.
This has been leading to ponding of water on roadways, in urban
areas and low lying spots, but it hasn`t been heavy enough or
long in duration to produce flash flooding at this time.
Over the next few hours, the heaviest showers will be exiting
into central and eastern New England, with some light to
moderate showers on the backside of this activity lingering
over eastern New York and western New England through 1 or 2 AM.
Rainfall rates will be much lighter with this activity, with
rates mainly under a quarter inch per hour. 3km HRRR and NAMNest
both suggest another batch of light showers may lift southwest
to northeast across the area for the late night hours as well,
but any additional rainfall looks fairly light.
Although it has been mild and muggy ahead of the front, winds
will switch to the west and behind the boundary and temps and
dewpoints will be falling. Dewpoints can already be seen in the
30s and 40s not far to the west across western and central
Upstate New York, so much drier air is close to moving in.
Temps will also fall for the late night hours. While western
areas will be dropping into the 30s, eastern areas (Hudson
Valley on eastward) will only be falling into the low to mid
40s, as the front will be passing later in the overnight. Some
spots in the Adirondacks could come close to freezing towards
daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main mid-level trough axis will cross the area during the
day Friday. As a result, we expect showers to increase in
coverage through the day as the cold pool aloft moves over the
region with diurnal heating allowing for some modest
destabilization. Any instability will be shallow and we expect
shallow / low-topped showers. Some wet snow could mix with the
precipitation over higher terrain with some small, slushy
accumulations possible above 1500 feet, especially over the
Adirondacks and Green Mountains. West-northwest winds will gust
as high as 30 to 35 mph.
Precipitation will diminish in coverage again Friday evening
with the loss of heating as the upper trough moves off to the
east. With some clearing and diminishing winds temperatures will
fall into the 20s at most locations.
Saturday will feature dry weather with plenty of sunshine and
near to slightly below normal temperatures in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. The next system to affect our area will approach from
the midwest on Sunday. A mid-level short wave will track east
from the midwest across the region, associated with low pressure
tracking across Pa and moving off the NJ coast by Sunday
afternoon. This storm is not expected to develop much until it
is well offshore, so precipitation is expected to be light. Rain
showers be likely, which could mix with some wet snow especially
over higher terrain with temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Our upper-level shortwave will remain overhead Sunday night with
perhaps some lingering rain and snow showers due to continuous
moist, cyclonic flow off the Great Lakes. This activity should
gradually fizzle out later Sunday night and on Monday as the trough
departs and brief upper-level ridging builds in. Another upper-level
shortwave will quickly push across the region Monday night into
Tuesday, however, any low-level features look to be moisture-
starved, so looking at another mainly dry day with little if any
precipitation.
The weather becomes more unsettled Wednesday into Thursday as a
large upper-level trough and upper-level low pushes into the central
CONUS. Yet another shortwave in advance of the main trough could
swing overhead on Wednesday and bring a period of precipitation.
Then, the eastern progression of the main trough could bring another
system into the region for Thursday. There are some differences in
the model guidance on how these features will evolve, track and
impact our region, though there is enough confidence overall to
highlight likely pops for this time frame. Precipitation is
primarily looking to be in the form of rain for both of these events
with perhaps some snow mixing in at times in the higher elevations.
High temperatures on most days will range from the upper 30s/lower
40s in the higher elevations to the upper 40s to upper 50s in the
valleys. Lows will trend from the 20s and 30s Sunday and Monday
night to the 30s and 40s Tuesday and Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broken line of convection ahead of a frontal boundary is
moving across the area for this evening. While the threat for
thunder has greatly diminished with this line, we still can`t
rule out a stray rumble (especially for KALB and KPSF) over the
next hour or two. In addition, heavy bursts of rain are
possible, which may allow for IFR conditions for visibility.
Otherwise, it will likely be MVFR for both visibility/ceilings
within rain showers. Southerly winds will be around 10 kts with
some higher gusts. However, these winds will be switching to
the west behind the front by about midnight or so. Winds will
become west to southwest around 10 kts or so for all sites and
showers will be diminishing. Flying conditions will generally be
MVFR for most of the overnight, but may improve back to VFR by
the late night hours (KPSF may wind up just staying MVFR,
though).
On Friday, flying conditions will mainly be VFR, although KPSF
may remain close to high-end MVFR. Ceilings will generally be
bkn-ovc around 3500-5000 ft through the day on Friday with a few
spotty light rain showers possible. Any shower will be fairly
briefly and light, so very little impact is expected on
visibility. Winds will generally be westerly at 10 to 15 kts
with some higher gusts possible.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers will overspread the area late this afternoon through
this evening along with some isolated thunder and strong, gusty
winds ahead of a cold front. RH values will rise to above 80
percent overnight. Scattered showers will occur again during the
day on Friday, especially during the afternoon with minimum
relative humidity values near 60 percent. Saturday looks to be a
dryer day with sunshine and minimum relative humidities ranging
from 30 to 45 percent.
Winds will be from the south at 10 to 20 mph this evening with
stronger gusts near any thunderstorms, shifting to west
overnight. West-northwest winds will average 10 to 20 mph on
Friday with gusts to 30 or 35 mph. Winds will become light
Friday night and Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers will be widespread late this afternoon and this evening,
and a few isolated heavier thunderstorms will be possible.
Storms will move quickly and should not remain over any one
location for long, so a significant flash flood threat is not
expected. However, some minor flooding will be possible in poor
drainage areas. Basin- average storm total QPF is expected to
range from 0.40 to 0.90 inches today into tonight, with isolated
totals approaching 1.50 inches possible.
Showers are expected at times Friday and Sunday, but are not
expected to be hydrologically significant.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...MSE
HYDROLOGY...Thompson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
648 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Shortwave visible on water vapor imagery is moving eastward into
northwest Illinois this afternoon. The area remains under the
influence of low pressure at the surrface and aloft. There are
scattered showers of rain/snow/graupel moving across the area this
afternoon. Additionally, there are westerly winds of 10 to 15 MPH
with gusts up to 25 MPH across the area. Temperatures at 2 PM
were in the mid 30s. Dewpoints ranged from 28 degrees at Vinton
to 37 degrees at Washington.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Key Messages:
1. Rain/snow showers possible into this evening.
2. Cool Friday mering with lows in the mid to upper 20s.
Discussion:
A 500 MB trough is forecast to exit to the east this evening along
with its pocket of cold air aloft and moisture. This will bring
any shower activity to an end over the evenings hours as high
pressure builds into the Plains. Showers will end from west to
east as snow or a snow/graupel(small hail) this evening.In the
wake of this system, 850 MB temperatures cool to -9*C by 12 UTC on
Fray resulting in low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.
Ridging will push across the area at the surface and aloft during
the day on Friday with clouds increasing towards the end of the
period of a shortwave that will impact the are to start the
weekend. Temperatures quickly rebound during the day on Friday
with high temperatures in the upper 40s north of Highway 30
to the lower 50s south.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Key Messages:
1. Active pattern through the long term.
2. Temperatures warm enough each afternoon to promote any overnight
snow melt.
Discussion:
Active flow regime expected through next week. CPC has the a slight
chance for high winds later in the period associated with a clipper.
Otherwise parade of clippers will bring chances for precip and wind
throughout. First clipper is expected Saturday morning with another
one late Sunday. Into next week, SW flow will bring a SW wave into
the area. IVT transport suggests that this wave will not have good
moisture transport from the Gulf, thus limiting QPF with it. Then a
deep trof with a series of waves is expected towards the end of the
long term period.
Main impact in the long term is a chance for snow Saturday AM with
the clipper move into our area. Sufficient moisture exists such
that we wont need much to have a saturated layer. Model guidance
suggests the heaviest snow will fall along the Hwy 20 corridor where
1 to 2 inches is possible. The RAP is further south with the
heavier snow, closer to I80 corridor. This corresponds to a strong
H5 vort max further south and closer to us. This will need to have
an eye kept on as the actual track of that vort max looks to be
where the best precip should occur. Based on thermal profiles it
may end up being mostly rain the further south it goes, or mostly
snow if it stays north. Light snow, less than 0.5 inches is
possible near the I80 corridor Saturday morning. There are
indications that a deeper dendritic layer and stronger forcing in
that layer could lead to a higher snowfall rate that could lead to
impacts for Saturday AM as a quick inch of snow could accumulate on
roadways. This is another thing other shifts need to watch.
After this, expect precip or winds with the next systems. Sunday
there are indications that we are too dry for much to reach the
ground, so we may end up with light rain or sprinkles. Blended pops
have an area of likelies and may need to be lowered based on CAMs and
additional model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Only aviation concern this forecast period is MVFR to low VFR
ceilings and a few rain/snow showers early this evening. Low
clouds should clear in the pre-dawn hours leaving generally clear
skies for the remainder of the forecast period.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Cousins
SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Wolf
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1000 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022
18Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated short wave
trough moving into the region with another strong short wave
trough digging into Montana behind it. At the surface, ridge was
centered over eastern CWA, with lee trough developing across
eastern Colorado.
Fairly quiet weather will continue through the overnight hours as
aforementioned short wave ridge moves over the area and trough
intensifies. Net result will be for winds to shift to the
southeast and increase to around 10 mph through the night.
Main concern for Friday will be cold front sweeping across the
area as next short wave trough moves through. Should see the front
in eastern Colorado by 15z, entering KS around 18z and through
the entire area by the late afternoon. There will be potential for
some light rain showers along the front as mesoscale forcing
intensifies and weak instability is present. These should be
relatively fast moving though, so do not expect much accumulation
at any one location. Winds will also strengthen behind the front
with gusts to around 40 mph expected by mid day.
Overnight winds will diminish as system moves away allowing for
colder air to settle over area. With light winds, expect lows in
20s across entire area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 129 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022
The extended period starts with zonal flow across the area. A front
moves through the area Sunday bringing breezy northerly winds of 15-
25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. RH values will be in the upper teens
to low 20s across the area resulting in elevated fire weather
conditions during the afternoon. The start of the work week sees
the potential for a transition into a more active pattern. A long
wave trough develops over the SW CONUS whereas another low
pressure system develops across the British Columbia/Alberta
provinces in Canada. Weak moisture return will provide the
potential for showers and overnight snow showers as temperatures
cool. The middle portion of the week has the potential for a gusty
to strong wind event, as the low from Canada moves SE and is
blocked by a developing ridge over the CONUS; pattern recognition
is supportive of a potentially impactful wind event. The other
potential hazard is the possibility of blowing dust. Local
research shows the potential for blowing dust with the ECMWF
showing impressive 0-2km lapse rates greater than 9 C/KM and
0.5-1km wind speeds greater than 45 knots. The GFS is not as
widespread with the overall parameters. RH values are currently
forecasted to be in the upper teens to low 20s over the area; this
along with the prolonged dry spell the area has seen may support
the risk for wildfires especially with the strong anticipated
winds. Future forecast packages will need to keep an eye on this
system as a better handle on the evolution of the system develops.
Temperatures for the period will be will be fluctuate day to day
from the 60-70s to the 50-60s with these multiple disturbances. The
warmest days currently look to be Saturday and Tuesday. Overnight
lows will be fairly consistent each night in the 30s through the
first half of the week before the slightly cooler air moves in for
the latter portions with low in the upper 20s to mid 30s.&&
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022
KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A south
wind around 12kts at taf issuance will continue through 12z then
veer to the southwest, west and northwest through 16z as a cold
front moves through. Northwest winds gusting to around 30kts are
expected from 17z-23z. After 00z winds quickly subside, becoming
light and variable by 04z. Some light rain showers are possible
around 18z. If the NAM model is correct, sub VFR cigs would be
needed in the 18z-21z timeframe.
KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. An east-
southeast wind under 10kts at taf issuance will continue through
16z then quickly shift to the west by 17z. From 19z-23z northwest
winds gusting up to 30kts are expected as a cold front moves
through. After 02z a light northwest wind is expected. Rain
showers will be possible around 19z. If the NAM model verifies,
sub VFR cigs would be needed around 21z-23z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...TT
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
619 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
H5 analysis this morning had a trough of low pressure which
extended from northern Ontario, south into the Arklatex. Within
this trough, strong shortwaves were noted, the first over the
northern Great Lakes and a second over eastern Kansas. Ridging was
present east of this feature from the western Atlantic, north
into New England. West of the trough, a high amplitude ridge
extended from southwestern Wyoming, north into southeastern
portions of the NW Territories of Canada. West of this ridge, a
shortwave trough extended from southern Alberta into southern
Idaho. At the surface, High pressure was the dominant feature over
western Nebraska this afternoon. East of this feature, surface
low pressure was located over the eastern Great Lakes. A cold
front extended south of this feature into the Florida Panhandle.
Northwest of the high, surface low pressure was located over
southwestern Saskatchewan. Skies were clear across western and
north central Nebraska this afternoon. Winds were light from the
west or northwest and 2 PM CT temperatures ranged from 41 degrees
at O`Neill, Ainsworth, Valentine and Thedford, to 50 degrees at
Imperial.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Over the next 36 hours, the main forecast challenges will be
precipitation chances overnight tonight into Friday, along with
temperatures Friday. An upper level trough of low pressure will
cross Wyoming late this afternoon and evening, approaching the
western Nebraska Panhandle around daybreak Friday. In advance of
this feature, a cold front will approach the far northwestern
forecast area around 12z Friday. This feature will move east
Friday, exiting the forecast area after 21z. Mid level lift will
spread east of the upper level trough, trailing the surface front
on Friday. ATTM, looking at a combination of the NAM12, HRRR and
GFS solns has the best forcing over the northern half of the
forecast area and have placed the highest pops generally north of
highway 2 and 91. Moisture, or the lack there of, is a concern
with this system. We have started out today with very dry air
across western Nebraska. PWATs this morning were barely a quarter
inch in our RAOB sounding. With surface high pressure anchored
over the area, moisture in advance of the trough will be Pacific
in nature and the NAM12 and GFS are in agreement with this. In
fact, Gulf moisture will not arrive until Friday afternoon. By
this time the main threat for precipitation will be confined to
the far eastern forecast area as surface front will have cleared
most of the forecast area. As for temperatures tomorrow, they were
tricky as statistical guidance had a large spread with their
forecasts this morning. The MAV was running 11 degrees warmer at
North Platte for highs Friday (59) compared to the MET guidance.
For highs Friday, a blend between the MET and MAV was utilized.
This better reflected the EC temp guidance which was more toward
the lower to middle 50s. Highs in the lower to middle 50s will be
highly dependent on the degree of cloud cover tomorrow and there a
chance for a temperature bust Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
On Saturday, a ridge will transition across the Dakotas.
Southerly winds will develop Saturday, pushing temperatures into
the 60s. A cold front will drop through the area Saturday night
with gusty winds noted for Sunday. There is some model differences
between the GFS and EC solns with respect to winds Sunday. The EC
pushes winds to warning type criteria while the GFS is quite a
bit slower. Will need to monitor this with subsequent forecast
cycles. Monday and Tuesday will be seasonal with highs in the
upper 50s to middle 60s. A strong cold front will drive through
the area Tuesday night with very strong winds possible Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Utilized the 90th percentile wind forecast
for Wednesday which already yields wind gusts over 50 MPH.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
A cold front moving through Wyoming this evening will reach wrn
Nebraska around 12z Friday. The front will be the focus for an
eastward propagating area of scattered -SHRASN from 09z tonight
near KIEN to 00z Friday afternoon near KONL. MVFR/IFR ceilings and
vsbys will accompany the showers and this flight concern will most
likely affect areas north of highway 2 across nrn Nebraska. VFR
is expected south of highway 2.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
634 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Radar this evening shows light rain and drizzle spreading into our
western counties. This rain is associated with the main upper
trough axis associated with all our weather yesterday finally
swinging through the region. Rain should spread west to east
through the evening and be east of our forecast area around
06-07Z per the latest HRRR model. Only light rainfall amounts are
expected, mainly less than a tenth of an inch. Have updated pops
based on latest radar imagery, as well as temperatures and other
grids with latest guidance/obs.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Upper level disturbance will work across the area this evening and
overnight. Could see a few showers, primarily before 06Z to 08Z.
Cigs will drop to just below 3kft at times. Aft 12Z, look for high
pressure to begin building in with clearing skies.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 38 58 37 63 42 / 40 0 10 10 10
Clarksville 35 56 35 61 39 / 40 0 10 10 0
Crossville 35 53 33 61 39 / 40 0 0 10 10
Columbia 37 59 36 64 40 / 40 0 10 10 0
Lawrenceburg 37 59 36 65 40 / 30 0 0 10 0
Waverly 35 58 38 62 41 / 30 0 10 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......Shamburger
AVIATION........21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
800 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move across the area tonight. Cool high
pressure will build into the area on Friday and linger into the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 655 PM Thursday...
The Tornado Watch has been allowed to expire at 700 PM for all of
central NC. The storms producing severe weather have moved to the
east along the Coastal Area of NC. Products have been updated.
Previous discussion as of 615 PM Thursday...
The tornado threat is confined to the Nash, Edgecombe, Halifax,
Wilson County region with the last of the convection pushing through
that region. Otherwise, the Tornado Watch has been cancelled for the
rest of central NC. The rest of the Watch will be cancelled when the
convection moves out shortly.
The line of convection along the Blue Ridge is expected to remain to
our NW-N before weakening and thus is not expected to give us
additional severe this evening.
Previous discussion as of 353 PM Thursday...
...Strong to severe storms still possible over east sections through
early evening; continued windy with gusts up to 25 to 40 mph...
Busy afternoon with minimal lightning and generally shallow
convection but with several brief spin-ups and a very strong
background wind. Precip has cleared out of our far W, where WV
imagery reveals drying, but it will continue to track through our
central and east sections over the next few hours. RAP hodographs in
advance of the convective line remain very long/curved, including 40-
55 kts at 925-850 mb, which is pushing up 0-1 km SRH to 300-500
m2/s2 in an environment of 300-500 J/kg of MLCAPE, fostered by
strong surface WAA with dewpoints well up in the 60s. Will monitor
this convection as it heads through the tornado watch areas, with
main threats remaining strong straight line winds and brief
tornadoes. Otherwise, the surface cold front remains well W of the
forecast area, and western sections that have cleared out still have
dewpoints in the low 60s, with surface temps in the low-mid 70s.
While the drying through the column should limit coverage, the risk
of an isolated shower or storm will persist in the Triad through
early evening. The cold front is on pace to cross the CWA from late
evening through the overnight hours, with a decrease in winds and
gusts from mid evening on, and decreasing clouds overnight. Lows
from the upper 40s W to mid 50s E. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 PM Thursday...
The axis of the deep shortwave trough centered over the Great Lakes
early Fri will shift eastward through central NC Fri as the surface
cold front settles to our SSE and high pressure builds in from the
NW. The column dries further and stabilizes on the subsiding side of
the trough, so while there may be scattered to broken shallow low-
base cu, we will be precip free. Winds won`t be as strong as today
but gusts may still reach around 20-25 mph, and with RHs dropping
into the 25-33% range, we could see some fire weather concerns,
although this may be partially mitigated by today`s rain. Expect
highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Breezes will be dying off Fri
evening, with the surface high center settling over the central
Appalachians, and with lows expected to be in the low 30s to around
40 NW to SE, a frost/freeze advisory may be needed for portions of
the Piedmont and far N Coastal Plain. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 445 PM Thursday...
Sat/Sat night: The surface high center moves quickly off the NC/VA
coast during the day Sat, in a weakened state. A warm front attempts
to push back northward into NC late Sat but the WAA on the back side
of the exiting high appears insufficient to get it into the area
before a fast-moving cold front, associated with a strong shortwave
trough diving through the S Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, moves into
the area. Mid and high clouds will increase and thicken ahead of
this wave Sat, and forecast soundings do show a brief shot of better
low level moisture Sat evening into the overnight hours, but overall
the moisture looks insufficient for anything more than a few light
showers late Sat through Sat night, mainly over the S and E (where
surface dewpoints should be higher than further NW), so despite the
fairly vigorous dynamic forcing for ascent, will only have a low
chance of showers. After the chilly start, highs should be mostly in
the 60s. Lows Sat night in the 40s with clearing skies overnight.
Sun-Thu: The fast/wavy longwave pattern persists across the CONUS.
Dry weather is expected Sun/Mon as modified high pressure builds
into, over, and E of the area. Thickness progs suggest highs mostly
within a category of normals both days, but with below normal lows.
This high will push offshore late Mon, introducing a period of WAA
and increased rain chances along and north of a northward-retreating
warm front which, unlike Saturday`s, does appear likely to push well
into NC if not through it entirely. Strong WAA riding up and over
this frontal surface (including a 50 kt 850 mb jet) should prompt
considerable clouds and high rain chances, esp Tue evening through
early Wed as a mid level wave traverses NC. A mid level cyclone
digging over the Midwest during the middle of the week and its
corresponding fast cyclonic WSW flow into NC on its SE side will
keep us in the warm sector, with perhaps a brief pause in convection
until Wed night into Thu when another low level speed max arrives,
and will carry chance pops then. Temps should be above normal to
well above normal Tue-Thu. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM Thursday...
Earlier showers and thunderstorms have moved east of all terminals.
Lingering MVFR ceilings remain at RDU/FAY/RWI, but are expected to
improve to VFR through tonight. Gusty southwesterly winds will
slowly subside tonight, but sustained winds around 10kts will
continue through this evening ahead of a cold frontal passage
shifting winds to a more westerly direction. As the gusts begin to
weaken at the Triad terminals (GSO/INT) a brief period of LLWS
should be expected, mostly driven by clockwise directional shear
aloft. Confidence is lower on this developing farther east given the
unidirectional flow expected up to 2kft, however, 30-40kts of
southwesterly winds should be expected at 2kft at RDU/FAY/RWI
through tonight. Westerly wind gusts around 20-25kts will pick up
tomorrow morning and continue through the remainder of the TAF
period.
Outlook beyond 00Z Saturday: A few SHRA Sat night could create sub
VFR conditions. Otherwise, breezy west to northwest winds are
possible Friday and VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the
period.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KGSO RAOBs are temporarily suspended because of helium supply issues.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Swiggett
NEAR TERM...Badgett/Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Swiggett/Green
EQUIPMENT...RAH/WSH