Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/01/22


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
955 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the area tonight, bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening. A few storms could have strong, gusty winds and heavy downpours. Tomorrow will be cooler with plenty of clouds and scattered mostly afternoon showers, with some flurries over higher terrain. High pressure will bring dry, seasonably cool weather for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 954 PM EDT...Surface cold front is now just about to enter the western portion of the forecast area from Central New York. Ahead of the front, a line of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms is located over far eastern New York and western New England. The heaviest bursts of rainfall is located over northwestern CT. Despite strong winds aloft (0-6 km bulk shear of around 50 kts), stable low-levels have been preventing any strong winds aloft from reaching the surface. Observations from NYS Mesonet and other ASOS sites have been showing gusts of 25-40 mph have been accompanying some of the heavier bursts, but winds have not been able to reach strong enough levels to produce damage. Showers and thunderstorms have been producing heavy downpours, with some rates over one half inch per hour. This has been leading to ponding of water on roadways, in urban areas and low lying spots, but it hasn`t been heavy enough or long in duration to produce flash flooding at this time. Over the next few hours, the heaviest showers will be exiting into central and eastern New England, with some light to moderate showers on the backside of this activity lingering over eastern New York and western New England through 1 or 2 AM. Rainfall rates will be much lighter with this activity, with rates mainly under a quarter inch per hour. 3km HRRR and NAMNest both suggest another batch of light showers may lift southwest to northeast across the area for the late night hours as well, but any additional rainfall looks fairly light. Although it has been mild and muggy ahead of the front, winds will switch to the west and behind the boundary and temps and dewpoints will be falling. Dewpoints can already be seen in the 30s and 40s not far to the west across western and central Upstate New York, so much drier air is close to moving in. Temps will also fall for the late night hours. While western areas will be dropping into the 30s, eastern areas (Hudson Valley on eastward) will only be falling into the low to mid 40s, as the front will be passing later in the overnight. Some spots in the Adirondacks could come close to freezing towards daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The main mid-level trough axis will cross the area during the day Friday. As a result, we expect showers to increase in coverage through the day as the cold pool aloft moves over the region with diurnal heating allowing for some modest destabilization. Any instability will be shallow and we expect shallow / low-topped showers. Some wet snow could mix with the precipitation over higher terrain with some small, slushy accumulations possible above 1500 feet, especially over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. West-northwest winds will gust as high as 30 to 35 mph. Precipitation will diminish in coverage again Friday evening with the loss of heating as the upper trough moves off to the east. With some clearing and diminishing winds temperatures will fall into the 20s at most locations. Saturday will feature dry weather with plenty of sunshine and near to slightly below normal temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s. The next system to affect our area will approach from the midwest on Sunday. A mid-level short wave will track east from the midwest across the region, associated with low pressure tracking across Pa and moving off the NJ coast by Sunday afternoon. This storm is not expected to develop much until it is well offshore, so precipitation is expected to be light. Rain showers be likely, which could mix with some wet snow especially over higher terrain with temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Our upper-level shortwave will remain overhead Sunday night with perhaps some lingering rain and snow showers due to continuous moist, cyclonic flow off the Great Lakes. This activity should gradually fizzle out later Sunday night and on Monday as the trough departs and brief upper-level ridging builds in. Another upper-level shortwave will quickly push across the region Monday night into Tuesday, however, any low-level features look to be moisture- starved, so looking at another mainly dry day with little if any precipitation. The weather becomes more unsettled Wednesday into Thursday as a large upper-level trough and upper-level low pushes into the central CONUS. Yet another shortwave in advance of the main trough could swing overhead on Wednesday and bring a period of precipitation. Then, the eastern progression of the main trough could bring another system into the region for Thursday. There are some differences in the model guidance on how these features will evolve, track and impact our region, though there is enough confidence overall to highlight likely pops for this time frame. Precipitation is primarily looking to be in the form of rain for both of these events with perhaps some snow mixing in at times in the higher elevations. High temperatures on most days will range from the upper 30s/lower 40s in the higher elevations to the upper 40s to upper 50s in the valleys. Lows will trend from the 20s and 30s Sunday and Monday night to the 30s and 40s Tuesday and Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A broken line of convection ahead of a frontal boundary is moving across the area for this evening. While the threat for thunder has greatly diminished with this line, we still can`t rule out a stray rumble (especially for KALB and KPSF) over the next hour or two. In addition, heavy bursts of rain are possible, which may allow for IFR conditions for visibility. Otherwise, it will likely be MVFR for both visibility/ceilings within rain showers. Southerly winds will be around 10 kts with some higher gusts. However, these winds will be switching to the west behind the front by about midnight or so. Winds will become west to southwest around 10 kts or so for all sites and showers will be diminishing. Flying conditions will generally be MVFR for most of the overnight, but may improve back to VFR by the late night hours (KPSF may wind up just staying MVFR, though). On Friday, flying conditions will mainly be VFR, although KPSF may remain close to high-end MVFR. Ceilings will generally be bkn-ovc around 3500-5000 ft through the day on Friday with a few spotty light rain showers possible. Any shower will be fairly briefly and light, so very little impact is expected on visibility. Winds will generally be westerly at 10 to 15 kts with some higher gusts possible. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers will overspread the area late this afternoon through this evening along with some isolated thunder and strong, gusty winds ahead of a cold front. RH values will rise to above 80 percent overnight. Scattered showers will occur again during the day on Friday, especially during the afternoon with minimum relative humidity values near 60 percent. Saturday looks to be a dryer day with sunshine and minimum relative humidities ranging from 30 to 45 percent. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 20 mph this evening with stronger gusts near any thunderstorms, shifting to west overnight. West-northwest winds will average 10 to 20 mph on Friday with gusts to 30 or 35 mph. Winds will become light Friday night and Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Showers will be widespread late this afternoon and this evening, and a few isolated heavier thunderstorms will be possible. Storms will move quickly and should not remain over any one location for long, so a significant flash flood threat is not expected. However, some minor flooding will be possible in poor drainage areas. Basin- average storm total QPF is expected to range from 0.40 to 0.90 inches today into tonight, with isolated totals approaching 1.50 inches possible. Showers are expected at times Friday and Sunday, but are not expected to be hydrologically significant. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MSE NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Frugis FIRE WEATHER...MSE HYDROLOGY...Thompson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
648 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Shortwave visible on water vapor imagery is moving eastward into northwest Illinois this afternoon. The area remains under the influence of low pressure at the surrface and aloft. There are scattered showers of rain/snow/graupel moving across the area this afternoon. Additionally, there are westerly winds of 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH across the area. Temperatures at 2 PM were in the mid 30s. Dewpoints ranged from 28 degrees at Vinton to 37 degrees at Washington. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Key Messages: 1. Rain/snow showers possible into this evening. 2. Cool Friday mering with lows in the mid to upper 20s. Discussion: A 500 MB trough is forecast to exit to the east this evening along with its pocket of cold air aloft and moisture. This will bring any shower activity to an end over the evenings hours as high pressure builds into the Plains. Showers will end from west to east as snow or a snow/graupel(small hail) this evening.In the wake of this system, 850 MB temperatures cool to -9*C by 12 UTC on Fray resulting in low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Ridging will push across the area at the surface and aloft during the day on Friday with clouds increasing towards the end of the period of a shortwave that will impact the are to start the weekend. Temperatures quickly rebound during the day on Friday with high temperatures in the upper 40s north of Highway 30 to the lower 50s south. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Key Messages: 1. Active pattern through the long term. 2. Temperatures warm enough each afternoon to promote any overnight snow melt. Discussion: Active flow regime expected through next week. CPC has the a slight chance for high winds later in the period associated with a clipper. Otherwise parade of clippers will bring chances for precip and wind throughout. First clipper is expected Saturday morning with another one late Sunday. Into next week, SW flow will bring a SW wave into the area. IVT transport suggests that this wave will not have good moisture transport from the Gulf, thus limiting QPF with it. Then a deep trof with a series of waves is expected towards the end of the long term period. Main impact in the long term is a chance for snow Saturday AM with the clipper move into our area. Sufficient moisture exists such that we wont need much to have a saturated layer. Model guidance suggests the heaviest snow will fall along the Hwy 20 corridor where 1 to 2 inches is possible. The RAP is further south with the heavier snow, closer to I80 corridor. This corresponds to a strong H5 vort max further south and closer to us. This will need to have an eye kept on as the actual track of that vort max looks to be where the best precip should occur. Based on thermal profiles it may end up being mostly rain the further south it goes, or mostly snow if it stays north. Light snow, less than 0.5 inches is possible near the I80 corridor Saturday morning. There are indications that a deeper dendritic layer and stronger forcing in that layer could lead to a higher snowfall rate that could lead to impacts for Saturday AM as a quick inch of snow could accumulate on roadways. This is another thing other shifts need to watch. After this, expect precip or winds with the next systems. Sunday there are indications that we are too dry for much to reach the ground, so we may end up with light rain or sprinkles. Blended pops have an area of likelies and may need to be lowered based on CAMs and additional model runs. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Only aviation concern this forecast period is MVFR to low VFR ceilings and a few rain/snow showers early this evening. Low clouds should clear in the pre-dawn hours leaving generally clear skies for the remainder of the forecast period. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Cousins SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...Wolf
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1000 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1243 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022 18Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated short wave trough moving into the region with another strong short wave trough digging into Montana behind it. At the surface, ridge was centered over eastern CWA, with lee trough developing across eastern Colorado. Fairly quiet weather will continue through the overnight hours as aforementioned short wave ridge moves over the area and trough intensifies. Net result will be for winds to shift to the southeast and increase to around 10 mph through the night. Main concern for Friday will be cold front sweeping across the area as next short wave trough moves through. Should see the front in eastern Colorado by 15z, entering KS around 18z and through the entire area by the late afternoon. There will be potential for some light rain showers along the front as mesoscale forcing intensifies and weak instability is present. These should be relatively fast moving though, so do not expect much accumulation at any one location. Winds will also strengthen behind the front with gusts to around 40 mph expected by mid day. Overnight winds will diminish as system moves away allowing for colder air to settle over area. With light winds, expect lows in 20s across entire area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 129 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022 The extended period starts with zonal flow across the area. A front moves through the area Sunday bringing breezy northerly winds of 15- 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. RH values will be in the upper teens to low 20s across the area resulting in elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon. The start of the work week sees the potential for a transition into a more active pattern. A long wave trough develops over the SW CONUS whereas another low pressure system develops across the British Columbia/Alberta provinces in Canada. Weak moisture return will provide the potential for showers and overnight snow showers as temperatures cool. The middle portion of the week has the potential for a gusty to strong wind event, as the low from Canada moves SE and is blocked by a developing ridge over the CONUS; pattern recognition is supportive of a potentially impactful wind event. The other potential hazard is the possibility of blowing dust. Local research shows the potential for blowing dust with the ECMWF showing impressive 0-2km lapse rates greater than 9 C/KM and 0.5-1km wind speeds greater than 45 knots. The GFS is not as widespread with the overall parameters. RH values are currently forecasted to be in the upper teens to low 20s over the area; this along with the prolonged dry spell the area has seen may support the risk for wildfires especially with the strong anticipated winds. Future forecast packages will need to keep an eye on this system as a better handle on the evolution of the system develops. Temperatures for the period will be will be fluctuate day to day from the 60-70s to the 50-60s with these multiple disturbances. The warmest days currently look to be Saturday and Tuesday. Overnight lows will be fairly consistent each night in the 30s through the first half of the week before the slightly cooler air moves in for the latter portions with low in the upper 20s to mid 30s.&& && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1000 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A south wind around 12kts at taf issuance will continue through 12z then veer to the southwest, west and northwest through 16z as a cold front moves through. Northwest winds gusting to around 30kts are expected from 17z-23z. After 00z winds quickly subside, becoming light and variable by 04z. Some light rain showers are possible around 18z. If the NAM model is correct, sub VFR cigs would be needed in the 18z-21z timeframe. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. An east- southeast wind under 10kts at taf issuance will continue through 16z then quickly shift to the west by 17z. From 19z-23z northwest winds gusting up to 30kts are expected as a cold front moves through. After 02z a light northwest wind is expected. Rain showers will be possible around 19z. If the NAM model verifies, sub VFR cigs would be needed around 21z-23z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...TT AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
619 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 H5 analysis this morning had a trough of low pressure which extended from northern Ontario, south into the Arklatex. Within this trough, strong shortwaves were noted, the first over the northern Great Lakes and a second over eastern Kansas. Ridging was present east of this feature from the western Atlantic, north into New England. West of the trough, a high amplitude ridge extended from southwestern Wyoming, north into southeastern portions of the NW Territories of Canada. West of this ridge, a shortwave trough extended from southern Alberta into southern Idaho. At the surface, High pressure was the dominant feature over western Nebraska this afternoon. East of this feature, surface low pressure was located over the eastern Great Lakes. A cold front extended south of this feature into the Florida Panhandle. Northwest of the high, surface low pressure was located over southwestern Saskatchewan. Skies were clear across western and north central Nebraska this afternoon. Winds were light from the west or northwest and 2 PM CT temperatures ranged from 41 degrees at O`Neill, Ainsworth, Valentine and Thedford, to 50 degrees at Imperial. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Over the next 36 hours, the main forecast challenges will be precipitation chances overnight tonight into Friday, along with temperatures Friday. An upper level trough of low pressure will cross Wyoming late this afternoon and evening, approaching the western Nebraska Panhandle around daybreak Friday. In advance of this feature, a cold front will approach the far northwestern forecast area around 12z Friday. This feature will move east Friday, exiting the forecast area after 21z. Mid level lift will spread east of the upper level trough, trailing the surface front on Friday. ATTM, looking at a combination of the NAM12, HRRR and GFS solns has the best forcing over the northern half of the forecast area and have placed the highest pops generally north of highway 2 and 91. Moisture, or the lack there of, is a concern with this system. We have started out today with very dry air across western Nebraska. PWATs this morning were barely a quarter inch in our RAOB sounding. With surface high pressure anchored over the area, moisture in advance of the trough will be Pacific in nature and the NAM12 and GFS are in agreement with this. In fact, Gulf moisture will not arrive until Friday afternoon. By this time the main threat for precipitation will be confined to the far eastern forecast area as surface front will have cleared most of the forecast area. As for temperatures tomorrow, they were tricky as statistical guidance had a large spread with their forecasts this morning. The MAV was running 11 degrees warmer at North Platte for highs Friday (59) compared to the MET guidance. For highs Friday, a blend between the MET and MAV was utilized. This better reflected the EC temp guidance which was more toward the lower to middle 50s. Highs in the lower to middle 50s will be highly dependent on the degree of cloud cover tomorrow and there a chance for a temperature bust Friday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 On Saturday, a ridge will transition across the Dakotas. Southerly winds will develop Saturday, pushing temperatures into the 60s. A cold front will drop through the area Saturday night with gusty winds noted for Sunday. There is some model differences between the GFS and EC solns with respect to winds Sunday. The EC pushes winds to warning type criteria while the GFS is quite a bit slower. Will need to monitor this with subsequent forecast cycles. Monday and Tuesday will be seasonal with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s. A strong cold front will drive through the area Tuesday night with very strong winds possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. Utilized the 90th percentile wind forecast for Wednesday which already yields wind gusts over 50 MPH. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 A cold front moving through Wyoming this evening will reach wrn Nebraska around 12z Friday. The front will be the focus for an eastward propagating area of scattered -SHRASN from 09z tonight near KIEN to 00z Friday afternoon near KONL. MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsbys will accompany the showers and this flight concern will most likely affect areas north of highway 2 across nrn Nebraska. VFR is expected south of highway 2. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
634 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 .DISCUSSION... Radar this evening shows light rain and drizzle spreading into our western counties. This rain is associated with the main upper trough axis associated with all our weather yesterday finally swinging through the region. Rain should spread west to east through the evening and be east of our forecast area around 06-07Z per the latest HRRR model. Only light rainfall amounts are expected, mainly less than a tenth of an inch. Have updated pops based on latest radar imagery, as well as temperatures and other grids with latest guidance/obs. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Upper level disturbance will work across the area this evening and overnight. Could see a few showers, primarily before 06Z to 08Z. Cigs will drop to just below 3kft at times. Aft 12Z, look for high pressure to begin building in with clearing skies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 38 58 37 63 42 / 40 0 10 10 10 Clarksville 35 56 35 61 39 / 40 0 10 10 0 Crossville 35 53 33 61 39 / 40 0 0 10 10 Columbia 37 59 36 64 40 / 40 0 10 10 0 Lawrenceburg 37 59 36 65 40 / 30 0 0 10 0 Waverly 35 58 38 62 41 / 30 0 10 10 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Shamburger AVIATION........21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
800 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move across the area tonight. Cool high pressure will build into the area on Friday and linger into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 655 PM Thursday... The Tornado Watch has been allowed to expire at 700 PM for all of central NC. The storms producing severe weather have moved to the east along the Coastal Area of NC. Products have been updated. Previous discussion as of 615 PM Thursday... The tornado threat is confined to the Nash, Edgecombe, Halifax, Wilson County region with the last of the convection pushing through that region. Otherwise, the Tornado Watch has been cancelled for the rest of central NC. The rest of the Watch will be cancelled when the convection moves out shortly. The line of convection along the Blue Ridge is expected to remain to our NW-N before weakening and thus is not expected to give us additional severe this evening. Previous discussion as of 353 PM Thursday... ...Strong to severe storms still possible over east sections through early evening; continued windy with gusts up to 25 to 40 mph... Busy afternoon with minimal lightning and generally shallow convection but with several brief spin-ups and a very strong background wind. Precip has cleared out of our far W, where WV imagery reveals drying, but it will continue to track through our central and east sections over the next few hours. RAP hodographs in advance of the convective line remain very long/curved, including 40- 55 kts at 925-850 mb, which is pushing up 0-1 km SRH to 300-500 m2/s2 in an environment of 300-500 J/kg of MLCAPE, fostered by strong surface WAA with dewpoints well up in the 60s. Will monitor this convection as it heads through the tornado watch areas, with main threats remaining strong straight line winds and brief tornadoes. Otherwise, the surface cold front remains well W of the forecast area, and western sections that have cleared out still have dewpoints in the low 60s, with surface temps in the low-mid 70s. While the drying through the column should limit coverage, the risk of an isolated shower or storm will persist in the Triad through early evening. The cold front is on pace to cross the CWA from late evening through the overnight hours, with a decrease in winds and gusts from mid evening on, and decreasing clouds overnight. Lows from the upper 40s W to mid 50s E. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 PM Thursday... The axis of the deep shortwave trough centered over the Great Lakes early Fri will shift eastward through central NC Fri as the surface cold front settles to our SSE and high pressure builds in from the NW. The column dries further and stabilizes on the subsiding side of the trough, so while there may be scattered to broken shallow low- base cu, we will be precip free. Winds won`t be as strong as today but gusts may still reach around 20-25 mph, and with RHs dropping into the 25-33% range, we could see some fire weather concerns, although this may be partially mitigated by today`s rain. Expect highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Breezes will be dying off Fri evening, with the surface high center settling over the central Appalachians, and with lows expected to be in the low 30s to around 40 NW to SE, a frost/freeze advisory may be needed for portions of the Piedmont and far N Coastal Plain. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 445 PM Thursday... Sat/Sat night: The surface high center moves quickly off the NC/VA coast during the day Sat, in a weakened state. A warm front attempts to push back northward into NC late Sat but the WAA on the back side of the exiting high appears insufficient to get it into the area before a fast-moving cold front, associated with a strong shortwave trough diving through the S Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, moves into the area. Mid and high clouds will increase and thicken ahead of this wave Sat, and forecast soundings do show a brief shot of better low level moisture Sat evening into the overnight hours, but overall the moisture looks insufficient for anything more than a few light showers late Sat through Sat night, mainly over the S and E (where surface dewpoints should be higher than further NW), so despite the fairly vigorous dynamic forcing for ascent, will only have a low chance of showers. After the chilly start, highs should be mostly in the 60s. Lows Sat night in the 40s with clearing skies overnight. Sun-Thu: The fast/wavy longwave pattern persists across the CONUS. Dry weather is expected Sun/Mon as modified high pressure builds into, over, and E of the area. Thickness progs suggest highs mostly within a category of normals both days, but with below normal lows. This high will push offshore late Mon, introducing a period of WAA and increased rain chances along and north of a northward-retreating warm front which, unlike Saturday`s, does appear likely to push well into NC if not through it entirely. Strong WAA riding up and over this frontal surface (including a 50 kt 850 mb jet) should prompt considerable clouds and high rain chances, esp Tue evening through early Wed as a mid level wave traverses NC. A mid level cyclone digging over the Midwest during the middle of the week and its corresponding fast cyclonic WSW flow into NC on its SE side will keep us in the warm sector, with perhaps a brief pause in convection until Wed night into Thu when another low level speed max arrives, and will carry chance pops then. Temps should be above normal to well above normal Tue-Thu. -GIH && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 800 PM Thursday... Earlier showers and thunderstorms have moved east of all terminals. Lingering MVFR ceilings remain at RDU/FAY/RWI, but are expected to improve to VFR through tonight. Gusty southwesterly winds will slowly subside tonight, but sustained winds around 10kts will continue through this evening ahead of a cold frontal passage shifting winds to a more westerly direction. As the gusts begin to weaken at the Triad terminals (GSO/INT) a brief period of LLWS should be expected, mostly driven by clockwise directional shear aloft. Confidence is lower on this developing farther east given the unidirectional flow expected up to 2kft, however, 30-40kts of southwesterly winds should be expected at 2kft at RDU/FAY/RWI through tonight. Westerly wind gusts around 20-25kts will pick up tomorrow morning and continue through the remainder of the TAF period. Outlook beyond 00Z Saturday: A few SHRA Sat night could create sub VFR conditions. Otherwise, breezy west to northwest winds are possible Friday and VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the period. && .EQUIPMENT... KGSO RAOBs are temporarily suspended because of helium supply issues. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Swiggett NEAR TERM...Badgett/Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Swiggett/Green EQUIPMENT...RAH/WSH