Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/31/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1157 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure will deepen while moving northeast across the upper Great Lakes tonight into Thursday morning, pushing a cold front across the local area by midday Thursday. A re- enforcing trough will move across the area Thursday night, with high pressure building in Friday night and Saturday. A weak low pressure moves across the region Saturday night into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The wind advisory portion west of I-77 has been upgraded to a high wind warning to 8 AM this morning. A wind advisory will likely be needed following the expiration of the high wind warning. Upstream wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph are being noted across northern KY and southwest OH, associated with strong momentum transport from the 925 50-60 knot LLJ down to the surface. It appears this is being largely driven by the rapid decay of mesoscale convective systems working their way northeast into the dry air across much of OH. Previous Discussion... Warm front has cleared the entire area, though not before a stray thundershower drifted through the Toledo area mid- afternoon. Temperatures are surging into the 60s/70s behind the front this afternoon. A cold front will sweep through from west to east Thursday morning/midday. A re-enforcing trough with colder air behind it will push across the area Thursday night. Main concern with this forecast package is winds later tonight into Thursday. A 70-80 knot low-level jet will roar overhead between 3-15z Thursday (11PM-11AM) from west to east ahead of the cold front, thanks to a surface low deepening to near or below 980mb as it moves northeast across northern Michigan early Thursday. With the timing of this at night into the early morning, when mixing is at its diurnal minimum, and on a warm air advection regime, which traditionally struggles to mix down winds efficiently, some uncertainty with regards to the magnitude of the surface wind gusts. However, it will become increasingly breezy to windy late this evening and overnight (after a brief lull in winds early this evening). While the atmosphere won`t be well-mixed tonight, there won`t be a strong inversion either and with such a strong low-level jet just off the deck didn`t want to mess around and issued a Wind Advisory for most of the CWA. Started it at 8pm/0z for northern Erie PA due to downsloping, but otherwise started it closer to when the strongest low-level jet moves overhead. The strongest gusts ahead of the front may occur 2-8 AM, as a weakening/evaporating batch of rain spreads in from the west. Some potential for this evaporating rain to try to push stronger winds aloft towards the ground, which the HRRR consistently hints at. Given the strength of the winds aloft in this window, will need to watch for brief gusts close to warning criteria if this plays out in the early morning Thursday, especially west of I-77. Couldn`t go Warning right now given low odds of occurring, but will pass along concern to future shifts to monitor. Mixing and downward momentum transfer will improve along and behind the cold front Thursday morning, so while winds aloft gradually weaken through the day Thursday that may be offset enough by the improved mixing to continue gusts to near advisory criteria through midday or so. Ran the advisory through 18z/2pm Wednesday across the board for now. Left Crawford PA/Trumbull/Mahoning out of the Advisory as the strongest low-level jet stays northwest of that area, but if signs point to better mixing than expected later tonight into Thursday morning it`s not impossible we eventually need to expand the Advisory out that way. In terms of rain, should largely be dry through the evening before a weakening batch of convection from the west spreads in on the strong low-level jet late tonight into early Thursday ahead of the cold front. Have a window of likely to categorical POPs late tonight through around dawn Thursday west of I-77 for this, but it will be losing steam as it comes east into a drier airmass and outruns the instability/front so it may not rain much in our eastern counties late tonight into early Thursday ahead of the cold front. Another fine line of showers may accompany the front itself Thursday morning, so hit the whole area with a brief window of higher POPs for that through the first half of Thursday. If a fine line of showers develops along the front it could aid in bringing down the aforementioned winds as well Thursday morning. It will be showery the first part of Thursday ahead of the front (not a steady rain), but should be a window of completely dry weather for a time behind the front Thursday afternoon. The upper-level trough swings overhead later Thursday night into Friday, along with a mid-level deformation axis and re-enforcing surface trough/front. Sufficient moisture will exist for light precip to return Thursday night, so brought POPs back up to chance-likely for the overnight. With 850mb temperatures dipping to about -8C by dawn Friday and winds turning west-northwest, likely will be some upslope/lake enhancement to the precip in the higher terrain of the primary snowbelt so have the highest POPs there late Thursday night. With lows in the low-mid 30s away from the lakeshore Thursday night, expect a rain/snow mix (probably all snow in the highest terrain) by the end of the period for most of our inland locales...may get some light/slushy snow accumulations on non-paved surfaces in the hills by early Friday, but no real impacts expected from the snow. It will be unseasonably warm ahead of the front through Thursday morning, struggling to fall below the upper 50s/lower 60s tonight. Temperatures slowly fall Thursday afternoon and fall more markedly Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Upper-level trough will progress east of the area by late Friday afternoon. Marginal lake-induced stability and cold air advection in conjunction with lift from the upper-level trough will produce scattered lake-enhanced rain and possibly rain/snow showers primarily across NE OH/NW PA Friday morning and afternoon. There may be enough moisture for scattered showers outside of the snowbelt region, where there are slight chance to chance PoPs at this time. A brief period of all snow and perhaps accumulating snowfall is possible across NW PA and the higher elevations of NE OH, but surface temps are marginal at this point and may only drop to or below freezing for a very brief period of time early Friday. A ridge will quickly build over the region from the west Friday night into Saturday, but precip may be slow to taper off across NE OH/NW PA early Friday evening. However, dry weather will likely develop by late Friday night as the ridge takes control of the area. Most spots across the local area should see at least a few hours of sunshine Saturday morning before an upper-level trough and weak surface low clip the area Saturday evening. This will provide the next opportunity for scattered rain showers Friday evening, but can`t rule out wet snowflakes mixing with rain across NE OH/NW PA Saturday night. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler Friday, with highs in the 40s across northern Ohio and upper 30s across NW PA. Friday night`s lows will be in the 20s, although locations along the lakeshore will likely remain in the 30s. Temps will warm to near-normal values by Saturday and Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers may linger into Sunday, but generally expect a drying trend late this weekend. A series of systems may traverse the area early to mid week, but still quite a bit of spread in model guidance so too early to iron out details. As of now, PoPs will likely peak Tuesday night into Wednesday. Near normal temps are expected Sunday and Monday, but there may be a warming trend may result in highs reaching the mid 60s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... VFR conditions remain across the area ahead of a cold front which will move in late tonight through tomorrow morning. The front will bring a band of precipitation across the area, however exact precipitation location and timing is uncertain so VCSH has been placed at most TAF sites. The front will also bring MVFR conditions across the region as ceilings begin to drop from west to east. Visibilities remain high during the entire TAF period, with the chance for them to drop with accompanying rain but confidence is low at this time. Lowering visibilities may need to be updated with future TAF updates. The greatest impact to TAFs will be winds, both at the surface and aloft. Low level wind shear exists at all TAF sites except for KERI through late tonight as southerly winds aloft remain strong at 45-50 knots. Southerly winds become southwesterly and will increase late tonight through tomorrow morning associated with the frontal passage with gusts up to 35-40 knots possible. Outlook...Rain/snow begins to mix in late Thursday into Friday and may bring some lingering lake enhanced rain/snow through Friday night. Non-VFR conditions may return late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon with another rain/snow system. && .MARINE... Southeasterly winds increase tonight and gradually shift to the southwest by 8AM/12Z Thursday. Winds will peak at 25 to 30 knots during the overnight hours and gusts as high as 35 to 40 knots are expected during this time. Winds may briefly approach gales during peak winds tonight, but not confident enough to hoist any gale- related headlines at this point. Winds become westerly to northwesterly and decrease to 15 to 20 knots Thursday night, although periods of wind speeds to 25 may persist through Friday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories are in effect this evening through early Friday evening. Winds quickly decrease below 15 knots and become southwesterly Friday night and become light and variable Saturday night. Expect winds below 15 knots through the start of next week and no headlines are expected. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ011>014-021>023- 032-033-089. High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ003-006>010- 017>020-027>031-036>038-047. PA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ002-003. Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for LEZ144>149. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ142-143. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sullivan NEAR TERM...Iverson/Kahn/Sullivan SHORT TERM...Maines LONG TERM...Maines AVIATION...Iverson MARINE...Maines
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1012 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 - Lowest Sea Level Pressure at GRR since December 2009? The surface low at 9 pm was fragmented with three centers, one NW of CHI, near CMI, and what I believe will be the primary low was just west of IND. These lows are expected to merge just west of GRR around 1-2 am and deepen rather rapidly as they do so. As I side note, if it can get below 980 mb (28.94 inches) near Grand Rapids, we would set have the lowest sea level pressure since Dec of 2009 when we had a 28.87 inch pressure in December. This idea looked good a few hour ago but it now seems the low will not quiet deepen fast enough for that. Still, it is possible. Our lowest Sea level pressure since 2010 has been 29.08 inches in October of 2010 and December of 2012. We will keep watching to see how this plays out. - Rain and windy tonight Our on-going forecast looks good. The area of rain will stay concentrated mostly near and west of US-131 since it is over our western CWA where the best upper divergence and mid- level deformation are strongest. It is in that area where the 500 to 300 mb upper wave goes negative tilt early tonight. Rainfall reports through 8 pm show in between 0.4 and 0.8 inches over our western CWA and it looks like another .5 inches or so over most of that area by 2 am when the main area of rain moves out of our area. Some sections over Mason and Oceana Counties could get another .8 inches yet tonight. As of flooding issues from this rainfall, a quick check of the USGS Michigan stream flow web page show most streams in the 25 pct to 75 pct range. Whitehall on the White River is at 19 percent. So, where the heaviest rain is expected the stream flow is largely the least. We are not expecting any significant flooding at this point, though as typical low areas and areas of poor drainage will have problems. - Strong gusty winds in the I-69 area still look on track Based on the fastest HRRR runs it would seem the 04 am to 08 am time frame is when we should expect the strongest winds. That is where the strongest surface pressure rises are expected in that time frame, behind the cold front. Wind gusts to near 50 mph are possible in the I-69 area during that time. Lesser winds gusts are expected outside of that area but all area will see gusts to at least 30 mph after 4 am, as the cold air moves in. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 -- Wind and Rain Tonight into Thursday Morning -- We will be issuing a Wind Advisory for areas to the south and east of Grand Rapids, roughly east of a line from Mt Pleasant to Kalamazoo. This was done in coordination with DTX and IWX as they will have Wind Advisories as well. We are expecting a push of wind to move in after midnight sweeping from southwest to northeast across the area. It will affect the I-94 corridor first around 2 AM, reaching Mt Pleasant towards 6 AM. The winds will be sweeping north in the warm sector of a strong and deepening low pressure system. The latest run of the HRRR has the low moving directly north through our western CWA over Western Lower MI. As for the rain the main low pressure system that moves through our area tonight is taking shape at this time in Southeast Missouri. It will race northward tonight and move through our area by daybreak. The low will bring periods of moderate rain to the area. National radar loops show a feed of showers and storms from our area in Southwest Lower Michigan all the way to the gulf coast. We will not see much in the way of convection tonight due to weak instability, a few weak embedded storms cannot be ruled out. Severe weather is not expected. The heaviest rain is still expected to be near and north and west of the track of the low. So, this means areas north and west of Grand Rapids stand the best chance at seeing rain totals exceeding 1 inch. In fact, the HREF is indicating that totals of 1.5 to possibly 2.5 inches are possible in the next 24 hours. Some local ponding of water is certainly possible in fields and low spots. Smaller creeks and streams should see fairly quick rises tonight and the mainstem rivers will see rises as well at least to between bankfull and flood stage. Issues are not expected to be widespread or significant so no hydro headlines warranted at this point. Some wrap around precipitation is expected Thursday into Friday morning. The precipitation will stay rain tonight and begin to mix with and change over to snow on Thursday and beyond as colder air filters in behind the passage of the low. Not expecting much in the way of snow accumulation, generally an inch or less across the entire area. -- Several systems expected in the remainder of the forecast -- We will see multiple waves in zonal flow move through the area in zonal flow. They will move through on...Saturday into Saturday night, Sunday night through Monday night and then mid next week. The first two systems, this weekend into Monday will feature both rain and snow given colder air aloft. Mid next week the precipitation should trend more in the form of rain with warm air in place. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 754 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 A rapidly deepening low pressure center will track nearly due north just west of US-131 this evening. On the east side of the system cigs will be VFR and on the west side of the system center, cigs should be IFR. It should be noted a large area of rain with areas of embedded heavy rain will be moving through our central and western CWA TAF sites in the 01z to 06z time frame (just ahead of the deepening surface low). So, even if the cigs are VFR visibilities may be MVFR to IFR in rain at times. Once the surface low is north of our area (Southwest Lower Michigan) around 06z or so, all areas will have IFR/MVFR cigs into the afternoon hours of Thursday. The area of moderate to heavy rain will move out by 06z and only showers will remain into mid morning. The cold air comes in after 06z and the rain may mix with snow in the western TAF sites. I put this in MKG but GRR/AZO/BTL may see this too in the 18z time frame. Winds will be very strong tonight just above the ground so I have continued to LLWS with 50 knots at 20000 ft. Once the cold front and or surface low tracks north of this area the cold air coming in will cause surface winds to be very gusty, winds may gust to 40 knots at times, more so for the I-69 TAF sites than the more western TAF sites. Winds will remain gusty Thursday, but just not quiet as gusty. The bottom line is expect largely MVFR/IFR conditions with periods of rain with gusty winds into Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 We have opted to stick with the Small Craft Advisory tonight into Thursday despite the depth of the low passing through. The reasons for this are the fact the low moves directly over our area which should bring slightly lower wind speeds. Also, the upstream high in the plains is not overly strong (1015mb) as compared to what is usually the case with a strong winter season low moving through our area. We may see a few gale gusts but overall this should be a 20-33 knot event. The exception could be up near the points Thursday morning after the passage of the low pressure center. Some stronger north-northwest flow winds will be in place from roughly 700am through 200pm. Waves will top out in the 6-10 foot range. It will take quite a bit of time for the winds to settle down behind the low in cold air advection. For this reason we extended the SCA through Friday afternoon. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ046-051-052-058-059- 065>067-072>074. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...WDM MARINE...Duke
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1113 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A powerful and deep low pressure system initially in central Illinois this evening will strengthen further as it moves into northern Lower Michigan by Thursday morning. Strong winds surrounding this system will continue an elevated fire weather threat into this evening, and risk of strong wind gusts overnight with showers and storms in the Ohio Valley. Cooler air will filter in on Thursday with lingering showers, but drier conditions should take hold for much of the weekend outside of some shower chances on Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Updated just after 11PM to issue a High Wind Warning for about two-thirds of the forecast area. The general reasoning for the need for a High Wind Warning was described in the previous AFD update (printed below) and as of 03Z there are now signs that a higher-end wind scenario as described is beginning to occur. Several 50kt+ gusts have been observed in the Louisville metro area. HRRR/RAP wind gust projections show that the swath of strong to damaging winds will continue to expand as it moves NNE into the ILN forecast area between now and 08Z. Previous discussion (857 PM)... An update on the overall concerns overnight... General Setup: Although there is currently a surface low located in southeastern Wisconsin, the main concern overnight will be with a stronger / more consolidated surface low expected to develop in the next few hours in southern Illinois. This low will then move NNE through northwest Indiana and into southern Michigan, with recent HRRR/RAP runs indicating it will deepen to somewhere around 978mb by 12Z. Ahead of the 850mb reflection of this low, a SSE low-level jet will rapidly increase in strength over the next few hours across the middle Ohio Valley, peaking out at 70-75 knots in the 04Z-06Z time frame across the ILN forecast area. The overall scenario regarding the arrangement of different lines of showers, different troughs, and eventually a cold front moving east through the area, remains somewhat convoluted. This forecast update will attempt to cover three aspects of the threat. 1) The first aspect deals with not just the incoming convective line, but with the potential for strong wind gusts just ahead of it (as described nicely in the previous discussion). Recent HRRR runs have been a little less robust on how the convective line will hold together across the ILN forecast area, suggesting it may only do so for the southern portions of the CWA. Radar trends between 8PM-9PM in southern Indiana and western Kentucky have been generally downward, though HRRR runs suggest some intensification is possible as the LLJ kicks in. Low level shear will be very strong -- 60-70 knots out of the SW at 0-3km, and 40-50 knots out of the SSW at 0-1km. Even with weak convection, and even with virtually no CAPE in place at all, this much atmospheric wind will support a threat for scattered strong wind gusts -- and perhaps some isolated damaging gusts. The expected orientation of the line, with respect to the 0-1km shear vector, would suggest only an extremely low chance of mesovortex generation / tornadogenesis. This would only be favored if there is a well-defined kink or break in the line. With all of this said, there is perhaps a more concerning signal in recent HRRR/RAP runs just ahead of the convective line, as the very dry inverted-V type mixed boundary layer finally begins to saturate. Just as this is occurring, there will be some potential for very strong winds to mix down to the surface. In fact, both the 22Z HRRR and 23Z RAP, using KCVG as an example, suggest that >50kt gusts will be possible. Upstream conditions over central Kentucky will be monitored carefully over the next few hours. For now, the wind gust grids have been increased by a few knots, but if it starts to appear that a higher-end scenario is about to occur, a High Wind Warning could be needed. 2) There may also be the potential for some secondary convection to develop a couple hours behind the initial batch, but still ahead of the cold front. The LLJ max will be moving out of the area, but there will still be fairly strong winds just aloft. There may also be some weak instability present, because of some mid-level cooling that will lead to a slight improvement in lapse rates. This would suggest that there will be a continued potential for strong winds with any convective activity behind the first line that moves through. 3) The actual cold front will cross the area between 10Z and 16Z. Based on its orientation (SSW-to-NNE) and the loosening theta-e contours seen on model guidance, it appears that this front will be weakening as it moves through the region. BUFKIT wind gusts are generally in the 25-35 knot range with the front, suggesting impacts will be minor and should stay sub-advisory. Previous discussion (351 PM)... Concern/impacts overnight will be tied to winds - both convectively driven and non-convectively driven. As low pressure in central Illinois begins to rapidly deepen owing to parent shortwave trough going negative tilt, mass response will be significant in the lower Ohio Valley this evening with the formation of a potent QLCS off to the west/southwest. There is considerable uncertainty on the maintenance/structure of this convective system into the CWA around midnight. HRRR addition to 30.12Z NSSL-WRF have been adamant that the structure of this system will remain intact into at least the CVG Tri- State, and even further east across northern Kentucky and far southern Ohio before weakening as it approaches the Scioto Valley. Other CAMS, including the FV3-WRF and NAM-3km are much less bullish, and either trend the the QLCS southward into more of Kentucky, or diminish it as it enters the Tri-State. Given the dynamics of the synoptic pattern, I am apt to believe a system with some decent structure/integrity making its way into the southwest half of the CWA in the 12A-3A time range. Given this will be coincident with a 50-60kt 925mb low level jet, transport of damaging gusts a distinct possibility with the strongest line segments during the overnight hours. And given extreme low level shear/SRH - even in the absence of lightning - could not rule out QLCS mesovortex generation and a brief/weak tornado - chances of this greatest south of the Ohio River. The other concern is non-convective wind potential. As the central Illinois low moves to Michigan and deepens considerably to a sub 980mb cyclone, pressure falls and mass response will increase dramatically just ahead of the convective line. Low level jet at 850mb surges past 80kts, and dry sub-cloud layers suggest a somewhat favorable lapse rate that could aid in some of this getting to the surface outside of showers. Confidence in this is not high, but there is considerable upside/potential if the lowest 1km lapse rate remains favorable for mixing in the overnight. If it does...and some NWP forecast soundings suggest it will (HRRR/GFS, etc) there could be some strong (approaching 50kt) wind gusts both immediately ahead of the showers, and immediately in their wake. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Actual cold front will be entering the CWA around or just before sunrise, and cross the area during the morning. A broken line of weak showers is likely with this feature, and given continued strong wind fields aloft, some decent gusts still likely through the early to mid morning hours on increasing cold advection. Gusty winds continue into the afternoon, with plenty of clouds and much cooler temperatures. Perhaps some light instability driven showers or sprinkles on Thursday night as the coldest air wraps into the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The mid level shortwave ejects out of our area Friday morning allowing any residual pcpn to taper off by Friday afternoon. Highs Friday reach low 40s north to upper 40s south as high pressure approaches from the west. A second burst of mid level energy moves through the region Saturday afternoon/ evening allowing for another chance of showers. Highs Saturday in the low to mid 50s. Pcpn moves out of the CWA from west to east by early hours Sunday morning with low temperatures in upper 30s north/low 40s south. High pressure Sunday allows for a brief break from pcpn before a series of mid waves move through the region. Temperatures at the start of the work week look to be slightly above normal through the end of the fcst period. Ensemble guidance hinting at another potent system moving into the Ohio Valley mid week. Something to watch. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Active weather will occur at the TAF sites tonight. Through the first few hours, dry VFR conditions are expected, with southerly winds still gusting into the 20-30 knot range at times. Winds will increase significantly after 04Z at all TAF sites, with SSE wind gusts that are expected to exceed 40kts, and may exceed 45kts. These gusts may occur along with a line of showers, which could also bring brief MFVR conditions. However, strong wind gusts are also possible outside of any showers. The primary time period for the strongest wind gusts has been marked with a TEMPO group at all of the TAF sites. Even after this period has ended, some very gusty SSE winds will continue through the morning, and even into the day on Thursday. MVFR conditions will eventually move into the TAF sites before daybreak Thursday, with ceilings lifting/scattering to VFR by afternoon for all sites except KDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Thursday night into Friday morning. MVFR conditions are possible Saturday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Winds from 20 to 30 mph, combined with air temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s, and dewpoints in the 30s and 40s, has led to a large area of Red Flag Warning conditions across Kentucky and southern Ohio today. Some of these conditions are quite extreme for the local climatology, especially along the Scioto River in south central Ohio and into northern Kentucky where RH values below 20% have been noted. Conditions are peaking now and will begin to stabilize with the loss of sun angle after 6 PM, which will reduce some of stronger winds/gusts. This...and persistent moisture advection...should add boundary layer moisture /RH/ quite readily after about 7 PM which should greatly improve the fire weather conditions in all areas. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>063-070>072-077-078. Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ064-065-073-074- 079>082-088. KY...High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ089>096. Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ097>100. IN...High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Binau NEAR TERM...Binau/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Binau LONG TERM...CA/Campbell AVIATION...Hatzos FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1053 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 An upper level low exited to the east this morning as another low enters the forecast area form the north. Snow fell across areas of western and north central Nebraska last night. So far, snowfall of up to 2 inches has been reported in northern Nebraska and the greatest liquid amounts have been in western Nebraska, around .4 inches. Snow showers began to redevelop in northern Nebraska this morning and should spread south this afternoon. Strong northwesterly wind gusts lasted through the night, peaking in the early morning hours. Winds have subsided somewhat this afternoon but remain gusty, with speeds of 30 to 40 mph. Temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Snow is exiting swrn Nebraska and a forecast update is in place for snow ending across this region. The rest of the forecast is on track. UPDATE Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The area snow on across the Sandhills and swrn Nebraska is holding together quite well; likely the result of an 800mb cold pool shown by the RAP model. A modest increase in POPs to the likely category is warranted for this forecast update. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The active period of weather will begin to wind down tonight. An upper level low, currently centered over western Nebraska, will continue to track south out of the state tonight. Forecast soundings and cross section models indicate some mid level lift and frontogenesis lasting into the afternoon and early evening. Most of the precipitation should be in the form of snow today, and any liquid precipitation will transition to snow after sunset as temperatures cool. The highest final snow totals are expected to be in the Sandhills and northern Nebraska. Confidence is low in a substantial snow pack developing as the ground is warm and much some of the snow will melt on impact. Wind gusts should diminish through the night as the surface low tracks far to the east and surface high pressure begins to build into Nebraska. Dryer air aloft will begin to work into the area later tonight, resulting in clear skies by the early morning hours. Cold air at the surface, combined with radiational cooling due to clear skies, should result in temperatures falling into the upper teens and low 20s tonight. Quieter weather is in store for Thursday. A slight ridging pattern develops aloft as a shortwave trough begins to move into the Mountain West. At 850 mb westerly and southwesterly flow will advect warm air into western Nebraska in the afternoon, reaching temperatures of 9 to 10 degrees Celsius. Surface high temperatures will be in the 50s, a few degrees below normal for the end of March. The next system begins to approach the forecast area late on Thursday as a shortwave moves into the area from the northwest along with a cold front at the surface. Precipitation would start on the Pine Ridge in the form of snow or a rain snow mix. Forecast soundings appear to show some lift in the DGZ, improving towards sunrise. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 As the shortwave trough moves into Nebraska during the day on Friday, precipitation will spread across the forecast area. It should change to rainfall as temperatures increase during the day. Highs will reach the upper 40s to 50s. Totals appears to be light at this time. The moisture is coming over the Rocky Mountains and PWATs are around .4 inch. A better moisture tap will be drawn into eastern Nebraska later in the day, but that will be after the front is east of the forecast area. Another ridge builds over the Great Plains on Saturday and Sunday which should result in clear skies and near or above normal temperatures at the surface. The next opportunity for precipitation after that comes early next week as an upper level low moves into the northern Plains. Will continue to monitor this for timing and potential for precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Snow continues to move south across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, with MVFR/IFR CIGs and visibilities occurring. Snow will exit the area early tonight though lowered CIGs look to persist longer. A gradual improvement to VFR is expected after midnight CDT area wide, with VFR persisting into tomorrow evening. Winds remain gusty this evening from the north at around 20 to 30kts, before weakening overnight. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CDC SYNOPSIS...Meltzer SHORT TERM...Meltzer LONG TERM...Meltzer AVIATION...Brown
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1035 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong area of low pressure will move from the Mississippi River Valley to the Great Lakes through Thursday. A warm front associated with the low will lift northward through early Thursday, then a strong cold front will cross the region from west to east Thursday night. High pressure is expected to return Friday into Saturday before another area of low pressure moves up and off the coast Sunday. High pressure likely makes a return to start next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Current surface analysis shows an area of low pressure centered over IL. This area of low pressure will rapidly deepen as it lifts northward into the Great Lakes overnight. As it lifts to the north, it will move a surface warm front northward through the area overnight. This will keep temperatures mild overnight, with temperatures falling off briefly this evening, before rising through the 50s to near 60 by daybreak. Winds will increase out of the south and become quite gusty. Skies will remain cloudy, with lower clouds moving in throughout the night. However, most locations should remain dry through much of the overnight. Low pressure will continue to lift northward through southern Quebec into western Ontario tomorrow. Showers will start to break out across the area tomorrow morning as forcing for ascent downstream of the approaching upper trough starts to overspread the area. These showers will be focused primarily across western portions of the forecast area during the morning hours before gradually spreading eastward during the afternoon hours. Skies should stay mostly cloudy, but a few filtered breaks of sunshine may occur between the showers. By afternoon, most locations should make it into the 70s (primarily due to advection), with dewpoints climbing into the upper 50s to around 60. This will lead to the development of limited surface based instability (on the order of 200-500 J/kg). Gentle height falls downstream of the trough, coupled with the instability present will lead to the development of thunderstorms across the area, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. Some CAMs (notably the 00z HRRR and 00z FV3) have hinted at a relatively cellular convective mode, which seems plausible given the relatively gentle height falls and lack of a stronger shortwave to encourage rapid upscale growth. Given the very strong shear in place (70-90 knots of flow at mid-levels), any isolated cells would become supercellular in nature. All hazards (tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds) appear possible, especially if the storm mode is primarily supercellular. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, given the very strong low- level jet that will be in place (50-70 knots at 1 km). Winds will be very gusty, even outside of storms, with southerly winds in clear air potentially approaching Wind Advisory criteria. There may also be a threat for localized flash flooding. If the convective mode does turn out more linear, there is a large component of the flow aloft parallel to any initiating boundaries, so there could be some localized training of storms (in spite of the very fast storm motions). Any storms should progress eastward throughout the evening hours. We`ll continue to monitor the threat for severe storms through the night and into the day tomorrow. The system`s cold front will sweep across the area from west to east overnight, causing winds to turn westerly and temperatures to drop. Overnight lows will range from the lower 30s in the mountains to the low-mid 50s to the east of I-95. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... An upper trough will swing through the area during the day Friday. This will lead to ample cloud cover. Winds will be very gusty out of the west, with gusts approaching Wind Advisory criteria possible. Locations along the Allegheny Front will see upslope snow showers, with minimal accumulations possible. Skies will clear out Friday night with high pressure building into the region. Temperatures will be more seasonable. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... To start off the weekend, high pressure will settle over the Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast. This ensures dry conditions for Saturday with temperatures slightly below climatology for early April. A progressive longwave pattern allows the next system to approach the region early Sunday. The height falls attendant to this wave form a weak low pressure system offshore of the Delmarva by Sunday evening. Any precipitation that accompanies this trough is to be on the lighter side and mainly focused over the terrain. Aside from the Alleghenies which see temperatures fall a bit, area-wide highs stay close to Saturday`s forecast. By Sunday night, lows will be in the 30s, with low 40s along and east of I-95. For the early portion of next week, mid/upper heights gradually build with dry conditions through at least Monday. The upstream pattern begins to amplify some heading into the early to middle portions of next week. While some rain showers may move in along the west-east oriented stalled front, the first half of Tuesday should remain dry. Moisture will continue given the persistence of southerly flow leading to more cloud cover. This is accompanied by more widespread rain heading into the evening and night. Tuesday`s high temperatures may approach the 70 degree mark given enough breaks in the clouds. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Widespread low clouds tonight with MVFR cig restrictions and LLWS. Strong gradient winds Thursday afternoon with gusts 35 to 40 kts, higher near thunderstorms. Winds begin to diminish after 02Z Friday, but remain gusty 20-25 kt into Friday. Expecting VFR conditions for the upcoming weekend. Even if a few showers were to cross the western terminals, do not anticipate any restrictions. Winds shift the second half of the weekend with prevailing northwesterly flow. && .MARINE... SCA conditions through tonight, then gale conditions likely Thursday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are also possible late Thursday evening into the early part of overnight which may require SMWs. While gale conditions may fall by the wayside, SCA may evolve late Thursday night into Friday. Winds largely stay below small craft caliber this weekend. However, brief gusts could near 20 knots across the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay on Sunday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels will continue to rise through Thursday evening on strengthening southerly flow. Despite that, no coastal flooding is expected. PETSS guidance is the only guidance showing coastal flooding, but this guidance has been a poor performer so far this year in srly flow. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning from noon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLW NEAR TERM...KJP SHORT TERM...KLW/KJP LONG TERM...BRO AVIATION...BRO/KLW MARINE...BRO/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
648 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Concern is mainly for freezing drizzle and snowfall potential tonight from southern MN to west-central WI. A couple of small bands of sleet, snow, and some raindrops have developed over eastern MN early this afternoon. The heaviest band is currently over the Twin Cities metro where we had steady sleet at the office for about an hour. Meanwhile, the snow in western MN has tapered off to isolated light snow/mist with the associated deformation zone weakening. Any remaining activity will progress east into this evening as the surface low (currently over the IA/WI border) slowly moves east. QPF accumulations will not be too heavy with enough rain to keep surfaces wet and nuisance amounts of ice and snow. However, starting this evening the surface low will be rejuvenated by an incoming secondary trough. This will act to strengthen the deformation zone leading to more widespread lift and precip near the periphery of the low. Forecast soundings across southeastern MN into western WI show potential for steady freezing drizzle as saturation is present below the DGZ within strong lift while surface temperatures hover near freezing. Saturation eventually builds into the DGZ tonight meaning a changeover to snow. Snow accumulations are forecast to be near an inch, but with freezing drizzle expected prior have opted to issue a Special Weather Statement for portions of southern MN tonight. Roads could be quite slick in this region. Freezing drizzle also looks possible across these areas as the snow exits with profiles beneath the DGZ remaining saturated while surface wet-bulb temperatures are sub-freezing. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s to near 30. Cloud cover will lessen from west to east during Thursday as the aforementioned storm system moves away. But, highs will still be cool in the upper 30s to near 40 as a thermal trough shifts east over the Upper Midwest. Winds will also be breezy out of the northwest with gusts to 20-25 mph. Thursday night is forecast to be chilly as the thermal trough does not clear our area in time and skies clear. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 20s. Luckily, Friday marks the end of our cool spell and temperatures should hover near normal for the rest of the period. A few chances of precipitation are possible for the rest of the period. The first arrives Friday evening as a disorganized trough passes through the Northern Plains. Forecast models produce broad but light QPF, focused mainly across the southern-half of MN. In addition, the lack of an elevated warm nose means precip type will be either rain, snow, or a mix, depending on surface temperatures. Models show another possible weaker, more compact system arriving late Sunday. PoPs as of now are only 20-25% and much like Friday`s setup, the precip type will be rain and/or snow. The final system of the period arrives near mid-next week as a strong upper-level jet develops an amplified trough over the central CONUS. However, large differences remain in the forecast models to draw any conclusions about the resultant forecast at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The surface low this evening will undergo significant deepening over Michigan tonight, which will shift the strongest forcing and heaviest precip to the east of the MPX area. We will maintain a moist cyclonic flow and cloud cover through the night, though that looks to remain mostly MVFR. We will see occasional pockets of lift develop through the night for eastern MN and western WI that will result in some light precip (mostly snow), but nothing of significance is expected. We will see clearing move in from the northwest on Thursday, but there continues to be a fair amount of spread with how quickly that clearing moves southeast through the day. With the 00z TAFs, did delay those improvements by a couple of hours. KMSP...21z RAP forecast sounding showed the potential for some light precip between 2z and 5z and with the band developing to the northwest on radar, this may come to fruition, with the potential for a brief 2sm vis type snow in that window. Other than that, expect MVFR cigs (though better higher than 017) through most of Thursday morning, with improvements happening Thu afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Fri...VFR. Chc IFR/-RASN overnight. Wind SW 5-10 kts. SAT...Chc MVFR/-RASN in mrng. VFR aftn. Wind NW 15G25 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CTG AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
636 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Our upper level trough will continue to move off to the east along with the stratus and rain chances. A fairly thin band of scattered light rain nearly along the I-35 corridor will continue to move eastward although will be hit and miss with trace to little accumulations. With all of our area behind this mornings cold front passage, gusty north-northwesterly winds will continue until after sundown. Mesonet observations still showing 40-45 mph wind gusts across northwest Oklahoma. Not too surprising since strong mixing to 850 mb under clearing skies, although NAM & RAP weaken the 850 mb winds by late afternoon to below advisory criteria. Although wind gusts across our southwest have trended below advisory criteria, will maintain our Wind Advisory for at least a few more hours or until it expires at 6 pm. After sundown, winds should be diminish and go light and variable overnight. It will be much colder tonight with radiational cooling enhancement with temperatures dropping near to just below freezing across northern Oklahoma, to mid to upper 30s across much of the remainder of our Oklahoma areas, to lower 40s near and south of the Red River into northern Texas. A much weaker shortwave trough will be digging through tonight, bringing a return of stratus and light rain to sprinkles across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas during the early morning hours of Thursday. Northwest winds will pick up again late Thursday morning, although not as windy as today. However, did increase the windspeeds slightly by 50% of the NBM 90th percentile. Thursday afternoons temperatures will stay slightly cooler than seasonably average for the end of March. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Surface winds early Thursday night will be light and variable, but will become southerly overnight, as surface high pressure builds eastward. Clouds will increase and thicken on Friday, as a trough quickly approaches the central U.S. Light rain is possible across western parts of the area Friday afternoon/evening, before shifting eastward across central and eastern section during the evening and overnight. Overall, rainfall amounts should be light, but very weak elevated instability may allow for convective elements and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. After a cool start Saturday morning, abundant sunshine, a light wind and mild temperatures will result in fabulous weather conditions Saturday afternoon. A more active weather pattern appears to arrive Sunday into early next week. Moisture return on Sunday (per blended guidance) suggest dewpoint temperatures ranging from the lower 50s across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas, with lower values farther north. With an easterly flow over the western Gulf and recirculated air (most areas) from the east, only meager moisture return seems likely. However, a northern stream system is expected to push a cold front into far northwest Oklahoma by late Sunday afternoon. This along with a possible jet max approaching late evening, may be sufficient for storm development along and near the front. If this occurs (and a big if), storms may continue to form and move south and eastward overnight into Monday morning. This would likely help push the front farther south as well. For now, will go with the idea of deeper/stronger convection shifting southward Monday, perhaps into northern Texas, but the overall confidence is low at this time. Hopefully, much of the area can receive much needed rain with a low severe risk. Again, confidence is low. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The low clouds (although still generally VFR ceilings) are moving east out of the area with mid-level clouds increasing in the west. There is the potential for a relatively brief period of MVFR ceilings in north central Oklahoma Thursday morning, mainly near KPNC. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Winds will diminish within an hour or so and be relatively light overnight before increasing from the northwest again after sunrise Thursday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 36 60 38 69 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 36 65 38 72 / 20 0 0 20 Wichita Falls TX 42 67 41 75 / 20 0 0 10 Gage OK 30 63 37 72 / 0 0 0 30 Ponca City OK 31 57 33 69 / 0 10 0 10 Durant OK 41 64 38 71 / 0 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
814 PM PDT Wed Mar 30 2022 .UPDATE...The breezy to windy conditions today were the result of a weather system pushing through the region. As the system moves away from the area tonight...the showers over the WA/OR cascades along with the breezy winds are forecast to lessen overnight although brief winds gusts between 20 to 30 mph remain possible across some locations of north central Oregon and south central WA. Otherwise minor changes were done to the winds and temps that are forecast to fall into the 30s with 20s in the mountains tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 458 PM PDT Wed Mar 30 2022/ SHORT TERM... Tonight through Saturday....A trough and cold front continues to move across the region. The trough axis will pass over the area during the late afternoon and be east of Washington and Oregon tonight. The precip shield in the NAM seems to be overdone on the east side of the Cascades, mainly due to downsloping. The HRRR and RAP appear to be handling things better with more isolated precipitation. However, any precipitation will linger through the evening and overnight hours in the northwesterly flow before dissipating finally. Winds will remain breezy through the afternoon and into the evening, especially in the Kittitas Valley, Columbia Basin and Gorge and Blue Mountain Foothills due to the pressure gradient behind the frontal passage. These gradients are expected to relax later tonight and the winds will decrease. While conditions are marginal, will leave the wind advisory in place for the Kittitas Valley. Some of the strongest winds are currently occurring. Thursday into Friday look dry. First, in northwesterly flow, despite another short wave moving across the area on Thursday then in a building ridge Thursday night into early Friday. The ridge will flatten by later Friday. As the ridge flattens and the flow becomes more zonal, another potent shortwave and upper trough will move onshore Friday night into Saturday bringing another chance of mainly mountain precipitation. Snow levels look to be mainly in the 2500-3500 foot level in the Washington Cascades and 3500-4500 feet in the Blues. However, there is not a lot of moisture to work with and any snow amounts are expected to be light. High temperatures will continue to be below normal on Thursday...from near 50 degrees in central Oregon to around 60 in the Basin. By Friday and Saturday, highs will be above normal, from the lower 60s in central Oregon to the mid 60s in the Basin. Central Oregon will be a bit cooler on Saturday, while the Basin will be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 20s and 30s tonight and Thursday night and in the 30s Friday night. LONG TERM... Saturday night through Wednesday. A trough will be exiting the region Saturday night with a ridge moving through Sunday. Active weather returns late Sunday as strong trough is expected to move through Sunday night through Monday. There is still some uncertainty with the models and their ensembles but the main area of concern will be the Washington Cascades with snow potential Sunday night through Monday night and much of the lower elevation areas with high wind potential Monday and Tuesday as highlighted in the ECMWF EFI. Snow levels are expected to be 2500 to 3000 feet Monday along the Washington Cascades and 4500 to 5000 feet from central Oregon through the Blue Mountains. On Tuesday with the northwest flow, snow levels will be lower ranging from 2000-2500 feet across the region. Preliminary snow amounts from Sunday night through Tuesday range from 10-18 inches along the Washington Cascades and 8-12 inches for the Oregon Cascades and 3-6 inches for the Blue Mountains. This will need to be monitored for possible highlights as the track become more certain. On Wednesday, another ridge is expected with mainly dry conditions. Temperatures will around seasonal values through the period. 93 AVIATION...vfr conditions will persist across all taf sites for the next 24 hours. However brief gusts between 30 to 35 mph will continue to impact the taf sites except for taf sites krdm and kbdn then decrease after 04z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 34 54 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 38 59 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 39 60 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 31 60 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 36 59 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 33 55 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 27 51 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 31 52 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 30 48 27 61 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 39 60 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...97 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...97
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
930 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 929 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 We`ve had some clearing this evening in the wake of the upper low that brought the early morning severe weather and spotty showers this afternoon. The clearing will be relatively short-lived however, as the next PV max is on its heels sliding southeast over western KS attm. Liked the more aggressive CONSShort and HRRR for increasing clouds by 12Z vs the slower NBM. We will also maintain at least some NW wind thru morning, possibly even picking up a bit toward 12Z across NE OK/NW AR. Thus, despite forecast lows near freezing tonight, this forecast will follow the same philosophy as the day shift by holding off on frost/freeze headlines. Updated zones to remove precip wording as well. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Cloud cover will increase Thursday in association with the aforementioned storm system. The chance of light rain near the Kansas and Missouri borders is nonzero, but current thinking remains that it should stay north of the borders. Below normal temperatures can be expected through the day Thursday, with another round of near freezing overnight temperatures Thursday night into early Friday morning. A better chance of frost will exist during this time frame given high pressure and lighter winds over the area. While frost will be mentioned in the forecast, later shifts may need to consider a Frost Advisory for Friday morning. Near normal temperatures will make a return Friday, ahead of another fast moving storm system that will bring showers and thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday morning. Neither heavy rain nor severe weather appear likely with this system. Warm weather will persist through the weekend, with a more active weather pattern arriving for early week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase primarily Sunday night and into Monday as a front pushes through part of the forecast area and stalls. This will lead to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms affecting the area through at least Tuesday, when the upper level system is currently expected to clear the area. Heavy rain and flooding will be a concern given the well above normal PWATs forecast and multiple rounds of rain expected. The severe weather threat is also nonzero, especially across southern portions of the area. Both the heavy rain/flooding and severe weather details will be refined further in the next few days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 MVFR cigs(MVFR vsbys in -RA across NW AR)will scatter out/end this evening from west to east, resulting in VFR conditions during the overnight period. A secondary upper wave will bring additional cloud cover after 14z to mainly the NE OK/ NW AR sites where a period of MVFR cigs is possible across the NE OK sites, with MVFR cigs to prevail for the remainder the period at the NW AR sites after 15z-16z. KFSM may see a period of MVFR cigs between 15z-19z, however VFR elements will prevail at that site for the remainder of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 35 57 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 37 57 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 36 58 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 33 56 33 69 / 0 10 0 0 FYV 32 52 31 65 / 10 10 0 0 BYV 34 49 33 65 / 10 10 0 0 MKO 35 54 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 33 51 32 67 / 0 10 0 0 F10 35 57 36 70 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 39 62 38 70 / 10 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...23