Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/31/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1157 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Strong low pressure will deepen while moving northeast across
the upper Great Lakes tonight into Thursday morning, pushing a
cold front across the local area by midday Thursday. A re-
enforcing trough will move across the area Thursday night, with
high pressure building in Friday night and Saturday. A weak low
pressure moves across the region Saturday night into Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The wind advisory portion west of I-77 has been upgraded to a
high wind warning to 8 AM this morning. A wind advisory will
likely be needed following the expiration of the high wind
warning. Upstream wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph are being noted
across northern KY and southwest OH, associated with strong
momentum transport from the 925 50-60 knot LLJ down to the
surface. It appears this is being largely driven by the rapid
decay of mesoscale convective systems working their way
northeast into the dry air across much of OH.
Warm front has cleared the entire area, though not before a
stray thundershower drifted through the Toledo area mid-
afternoon. Temperatures are surging into the 60s/70s behind the
front this afternoon. A cold front will sweep through from west
to east Thursday morning/midday. A re-enforcing trough with
colder air behind it will push across the area Thursday night.
Main concern with this forecast package is winds later tonight
into Thursday. A 70-80 knot low-level jet will roar overhead
between 3-15z Thursday (11PM-11AM) from west to east ahead of
the cold front, thanks to a surface low deepening to near or
below 980mb as it moves northeast across northern Michigan early
Thursday. With the timing of this at night into the early
morning, when mixing is at its diurnal minimum, and on a warm
air advection regime, which traditionally struggles to mix down
winds efficiently, some uncertainty with regards to the
magnitude of the surface wind gusts. However, it will become
increasingly breezy to windy late this evening and overnight
(after a brief lull in winds early this evening). While the
atmosphere won`t be well-mixed tonight, there won`t be a strong
inversion either and with such a strong low-level jet just off
the deck didn`t want to mess around and issued a Wind Advisory
for most of the CWA. Started it at 8pm/0z for northern Erie PA
due to downsloping, but otherwise started it closer to when the
strongest low-level jet moves overhead. The strongest gusts
ahead of the front may occur 2-8 AM, as a weakening/evaporating
batch of rain spreads in from the west. Some potential for this
evaporating rain to try to push stronger winds aloft towards the
ground, which the HRRR consistently hints at. Given the
strength of the winds aloft in this window, will need to watch
for brief gusts close to warning criteria if this plays out in
the early morning Thursday, especially west of I-77. Couldn`t go
Warning right now given low odds of occurring, but will pass
along concern to future shifts to monitor. Mixing and downward
momentum transfer will improve along and behind the cold front
Thursday morning, so while winds aloft gradually weaken through
the day Thursday that may be offset enough by the improved
mixing to continue gusts to near advisory criteria through
midday or so. Ran the advisory through 18z/2pm Wednesday across
the board for now. Left Crawford PA/Trumbull/Mahoning out of the
Advisory as the strongest low-level jet stays northwest of that
area, but if signs point to better mixing than expected later
tonight into Thursday morning it`s not impossible we eventually
need to expand the Advisory out that way.
In terms of rain, should largely be dry through the evening
before a weakening batch of convection from the west spreads in
on the strong low-level jet late tonight into early Thursday
ahead of the cold front. Have a window of likely to categorical
POPs late tonight through around dawn Thursday west of I-77 for
this, but it will be losing steam as it comes east into a drier
airmass and outruns the instability/front so it may not rain
much in our eastern counties late tonight into early Thursday
ahead of the cold front. Another fine line of showers may
accompany the front itself Thursday morning, so hit the whole
area with a brief window of higher POPs for that through the
first half of Thursday. If a fine line of showers develops along
the front it could aid in bringing down the aforementioned
winds as well Thursday morning. It will be showery the first
part of Thursday ahead of the front (not a steady rain), but
should be a window of completely dry weather for a time behind
the front Thursday afternoon.
The upper-level trough swings overhead later Thursday night into
Friday, along with a mid-level deformation axis and re-enforcing
surface trough/front. Sufficient moisture will exist for light
precip to return Thursday night, so brought POPs back up to
chance-likely for the overnight. With 850mb temperatures dipping
to about -8C by dawn Friday and winds turning west-northwest,
likely will be some upslope/lake enhancement to the precip in
the higher terrain of the primary snowbelt so have the highest
POPs there late Thursday night. With lows in the low-mid 30s
away from the lakeshore Thursday night, expect a rain/snow mix
(probably all snow in the highest terrain) by the end of the
period for most of our inland locales...may get some
light/slushy snow accumulations on non-paved surfaces in the
hills by early Friday, but no real impacts expected from the
It will be unseasonably warm ahead of the front through Thursday
morning, struggling to fall below the upper 50s/lower 60s
tonight. Temperatures slowly fall Thursday afternoon and fall
more markedly Thursday night.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level trough will progress east of the area by late Friday
afternoon. Marginal lake-induced stability and cold air advection in
conjunction with lift from the upper-level trough will produce
scattered lake-enhanced rain and possibly rain/snow showers
primarily across NE OH/NW PA Friday morning and afternoon. There may
be enough moisture for scattered showers outside of the snowbelt
region, where there are slight chance to chance PoPs at this time. A
brief period of all snow and perhaps accumulating snowfall is
possible across NW PA and the higher elevations of NE OH, but
surface temps are marginal at this point and may only drop to or
below freezing for a very brief period of time early Friday. A ridge
will quickly build over the region from the west Friday night into
Saturday, but precip may be slow to taper off across NE OH/NW PA
early Friday evening. However, dry weather will likely develop by
late Friday night as the ridge takes control of the area. Most spots
across the local area should see at least a few hours of sunshine
Saturday morning before an upper-level trough and weak surface low
clip the area Saturday evening. This will provide the next
opportunity for scattered rain showers Friday evening, but can`t
rule out wet snowflakes mixing with rain across NE OH/NW PA Saturday
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler Friday, with highs in the 40s
across northern Ohio and upper 30s across NW PA. Friday night`s lows
will be in the 20s, although locations along the lakeshore will
likely remain in the 30s. Temps will warm to near-normal values by
Saturday and Saturday night.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers may linger into Sunday, but generally expect a drying trend
late this weekend. A series of systems may traverse the area early
to mid week, but still quite a bit of spread in model guidance so
too early to iron out details. As of now, PoPs will likely peak
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Near normal temps are expected Sunday
and Monday, but there may be a warming trend may result in highs
reaching the mid 60s by Wednesday.
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions remain across the area ahead of a cold front
which will move in late tonight through tomorrow morning. The
front will bring a band of precipitation across the area,
however exact precipitation location and timing is uncertain so
VCSH has been placed at most TAF sites. The front will also
bring MVFR conditions across the region as ceilings begin to
drop from west to east. Visibilities remain high during the
entire TAF period, with the chance for them to drop with
accompanying rain but confidence is low at this time. Lowering
visibilities may need to be updated with future TAF updates.
The greatest impact to TAFs will be winds, both at the surface
and aloft. Low level wind shear exists at all TAF sites except
for KERI through late tonight as southerly winds aloft remain
strong at 45-50 knots. Southerly winds become southwesterly and will
increase late tonight through tomorrow morning associated with
the frontal passage with gusts up to 35-40 knots possible.
Outlook...Rain/snow begins to mix in late Thursday into Friday
and may bring some lingering lake enhanced rain/snow through
Friday night. Non-VFR conditions may return late Saturday night
through Sunday afternoon with another rain/snow system.
Southeasterly winds increase tonight and gradually shift to the
southwest by 8AM/12Z Thursday. Winds will peak at 25 to 30 knots
during the overnight hours and gusts as high as 35 to 40 knots are
expected during this time. Winds may briefly approach gales during
peak winds tonight, but not confident enough to hoist any gale-
related headlines at this point. Winds become westerly to
northwesterly and decrease to 15 to 20 knots Thursday night,
although periods of wind speeds to 25 may persist through Friday
afternoon. Small Craft Advisories are in effect this evening through
early Friday evening.
Winds quickly decrease below 15 knots and become southwesterly
Friday night and become light and variable Saturday night. Expect
winds below 15 knots through the start of next week and no headlines
OH...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ011>014-021>023-
High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ003-006>010-
PA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ002-003.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for LEZ144>149.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ142-143.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1012 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Issued at 1012 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022
- Lowest Sea Level Pressure at GRR since December 2009?
The surface low at 9 pm was fragmented with three centers, one NW
of CHI, near CMI, and what I believe will be the primary low was
just west of IND. These lows are expected to merge just west of
GRR around 1-2 am and deepen rather rapidly as they do so. As I
side note, if it can get below 980 mb (28.94 inches) near Grand
Rapids, we would set have the lowest sea level pressure since Dec
of 2009 when we had a 28.87 inch pressure in December. This idea
looked good a few hour ago but it now seems the low will not quiet
deepen fast enough for that. Still, it is possible. Our lowest
Sea level pressure since 2010 has been 29.08 inches in October of
2010 and December of 2012. We will keep watching to see how this
- Rain and windy tonight
Our on-going forecast looks good. The area of rain will stay
concentrated mostly near and west of US-131 since it is over our
western CWA where the best upper divergence and mid- level
deformation are strongest. It is in that area where the 500 to
300 mb upper wave goes negative tilt early tonight. Rainfall
reports through 8 pm show in between 0.4 and 0.8 inches over our
western CWA and it looks like another .5 inches or so over most of
that area by 2 am when the main area of rain moves out of our
area. Some sections over Mason and Oceana Counties could get
another .8 inches yet tonight.
As of flooding issues from this rainfall, a quick check of the
USGS Michigan stream flow web page show most streams in the 25 pct
to 75 pct range. Whitehall on the White River is at 19 percent.
So, where the heaviest rain is expected the stream flow is largely
the least. We are not expecting any significant flooding at this
point, though as typical low areas and areas of poor drainage will
- Strong gusty winds in the I-69 area still look on track
Based on the fastest HRRR runs it would seem the 04 am to 08 am
time frame is when we should expect the strongest winds. That is
where the strongest surface pressure rises are expected in that
time frame, behind the cold front. Wind gusts to near 50 mph are
possible in the I-69 area during that time. Lesser winds gusts are
expected outside of that area but all area will see gusts to at
least 30 mph after 4 am, as the cold air moves in.
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022
-- Wind and Rain Tonight into Thursday Morning --
We will be issuing a Wind Advisory for areas to the south and east
of Grand Rapids, roughly east of a line from Mt Pleasant to
Kalamazoo. This was done in coordination with DTX and IWX as they
will have Wind Advisories as well. We are expecting a push of
wind to move in after midnight sweeping from southwest to
northeast across the area. It will affect the I-94 corridor first
around 2 AM, reaching Mt Pleasant towards 6 AM. The winds will be
sweeping north in the warm sector of a strong and deepening low
pressure system. The latest run of the HRRR has the low moving
directly north through our western CWA over Western Lower MI.
As for the rain the main low pressure system that moves through
our area tonight is taking shape at this time in Southeast
Missouri. It will race northward tonight and move through our area
by daybreak. The low will bring periods of moderate rain to the
area. National radar loops show a feed of showers and storms from
our area in Southwest Lower Michigan all the way to the gulf
coast. We will not see much in the way of convection tonight due
to weak instability, a few weak embedded storms cannot be ruled
out. Severe weather is not expected.
The heaviest rain is still expected to be near and north and west
of the track of the low. So, this means areas north and west of
Grand Rapids stand the best chance at seeing rain totals exceeding
1 inch. In fact, the HREF is indicating that totals of 1.5 to
possibly 2.5 inches are possible in the next 24 hours. Some local
ponding of water is certainly possible in fields and low spots.
Smaller creeks and streams should see fairly quick rises tonight
and the mainstem rivers will see rises as well at least to between
bankfull and flood stage. Issues are not expected to be widespread
or significant so no hydro headlines warranted at this point.
Some wrap around precipitation is expected Thursday into Friday
morning. The precipitation will stay rain tonight and begin to mix
with and change over to snow on Thursday and beyond as colder air
filters in behind the passage of the low. Not expecting much in
the way of snow accumulation, generally an inch or less across the
-- Several systems expected in the remainder of the forecast --
We will see multiple waves in zonal flow move through the area in
zonal flow. They will move through on...Saturday into Saturday
night, Sunday night through Monday night and then mid next week.
The first two systems, this weekend into Monday will feature both
rain and snow given colder air aloft. Mid next week the
precipitation should trend more in the form of rain with warm air
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 754 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022
A rapidly deepening low pressure center will track nearly due
north just west of US-131 this evening. On the east side of the
system cigs will be VFR and on the west side of the system center,
cigs should be IFR. It should be noted a large area of rain with
areas of embedded heavy rain will be moving through our central
and western CWA TAF sites in the 01z to 06z time frame (just ahead
of the deepening surface low). So, even if the cigs are VFR
visibilities may be MVFR to IFR in rain at times. Once the surface
low is north of our area (Southwest Lower Michigan) around 06z or
so, all areas will have IFR/MVFR cigs into the afternoon hours of
The area of moderate to heavy rain will move out by 06z and only
showers will remain into mid morning. The cold air comes in after
06z and the rain may mix with snow in the western TAF sites. I put
this in MKG but GRR/AZO/BTL may see this too in the 18z time
Winds will be very strong tonight just above the ground so I have
continued to LLWS with 50 knots at 20000 ft. Once the cold front
and or surface low tracks north of this area the cold air coming
in will cause surface winds to be very gusty, winds may gust to 40
knots at times, more so for the I-69 TAF sites than the more
western TAF sites. Winds will remain gusty Thursday, but just not
quiet as gusty.
The bottom line is expect largely MVFR/IFR conditions with
periods of rain with gusty winds into Thursday afternoon.
Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022
We have opted to stick with the Small Craft Advisory tonight into
Thursday despite the depth of the low passing through. The
reasons for this are the fact the low moves directly over our area
which should bring slightly lower wind speeds. Also, the upstream
high in the plains is not overly strong (1015mb) as compared to
what is usually the case with a strong winter season low moving
through our area.
We may see a few gale gusts but overall this should be a 20-33
knot event. The exception could be up near the points Thursday
morning after the passage of the low pressure center. Some
stronger north-northwest flow winds will be in place from roughly
700am through 200pm. Waves will top out in the 6-10 foot range.
It will take quite a bit of time for the winds to settle down
behind the low in cold air advection. For this reason we extended
the SCA through Friday afternoon.
MI...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ046-051-052-058-059-
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1113 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022
A powerful and deep low pressure system initially in central
Illinois this evening will strengthen further as it moves into
northern Lower Michigan by Thursday morning. Strong winds
surrounding this system will continue an elevated fire weather
threat into this evening, and risk of strong wind gusts
overnight with showers and storms in the Ohio Valley. Cooler air
will filter in on Thursday with lingering showers, but drier
conditions should take hold for much of the weekend outside of
some shower chances on Saturday night.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Updated just after 11PM to issue a High Wind Warning for about
two-thirds of the forecast area. The general reasoning for the
need for a High Wind Warning was described in the previous
AFD update (printed below) and as of 03Z there are now signs
that a higher-end wind scenario as described is beginning to
occur. Several 50kt+ gusts have been observed in the Louisville
metro area. HRRR/RAP wind gust projections show that the swath
of strong to damaging winds will continue to expand as it moves
NNE into the ILN forecast area between now and 08Z.
Previous discussion (857 PM)...
An update on the overall concerns overnight...
Although there is currently a surface low located in
southeastern Wisconsin, the main concern overnight will be with
a stronger / more consolidated surface low expected to develop
in the next few hours in southern Illinois. This low will then
move NNE through northwest Indiana and into southern Michigan,
with recent HRRR/RAP runs indicating it will deepen to somewhere
around 978mb by 12Z. Ahead of the 850mb reflection of this low,
a SSE low-level jet will rapidly increase in strength over the
next few hours across the middle Ohio Valley, peaking out at
70-75 knots in the 04Z-06Z time frame across the ILN forecast
area. The overall scenario regarding the arrangement of
different lines of showers, different troughs, and eventually a
cold front moving east through the area, remains somewhat
convoluted. This forecast update will attempt to cover three
aspects of the threat.
1) The first aspect deals with not just the incoming convective
line, but with the potential for strong wind gusts just ahead of
it (as described nicely in the previous discussion). Recent HRRR
runs have been a little less robust on how the convective line
will hold together across the ILN forecast area, suggesting it
may only do so for the southern portions of the CWA. Radar
trends between 8PM-9PM in southern Indiana and western Kentucky
have been generally downward, though HRRR runs suggest some
intensification is possible as the LLJ kicks in. Low level shear
will be very strong -- 60-70 knots out of the SW at 0-3km, and
40-50 knots out of the SSW at 0-1km. Even with weak convection,
and even with virtually no CAPE in place at all, this much
atmospheric wind will support a threat for scattered strong wind
gusts -- and perhaps some isolated damaging gusts. The expected
orientation of the line, with respect to the 0-1km shear vector,
would suggest only an extremely low chance of mesovortex
generation / tornadogenesis. This would only be favored if there
is a well-defined kink or break in the line. With all of this
said, there is perhaps a more concerning signal in recent
HRRR/RAP runs just ahead of the convective line, as the very dry
inverted-V type mixed boundary layer finally begins to saturate.
Just as this is occurring, there will be some potential for very
strong winds to mix down to the surface. In fact, both the 22Z
HRRR and 23Z RAP, using KCVG as an example, suggest that >50kt
gusts will be possible. Upstream conditions over central
Kentucky will be monitored carefully over the next few hours.
For now, the wind gust grids have been increased by a few knots,
but if it starts to appear that a higher-end scenario is about
to occur, a High Wind Warning could be needed.
2) There may also be the potential for some secondary convection
to develop a couple hours behind the initial batch, but still
ahead of the cold front. The LLJ max will be moving out of the
area, but there will still be fairly strong winds just aloft.
There may also be some weak instability present, because of some
mid-level cooling that will lead to a slight improvement in
lapse rates. This would suggest that there will be a continued
potential for strong winds with any convective activity behind
the first line that moves through.
3) The actual cold front will cross the area between 10Z and
16Z. Based on its orientation (SSW-to-NNE) and the loosening
theta-e contours seen on model guidance, it appears that this
front will be weakening as it moves through the region. BUFKIT
wind gusts are generally in the 25-35 knot range with the front,
suggesting impacts will be minor and should stay sub-advisory.
Previous discussion (351 PM)...
Concern/impacts overnight will
be tied to winds - both convectively driven and non-convectively
driven. As low pressure in central Illinois begins to rapidly
deepen owing to parent shortwave trough going negative tilt,
mass response will be significant in the lower Ohio Valley this
evening with the formation of a potent QLCS off to the
west/southwest. There is considerable uncertainty on the
maintenance/structure of this convective system into the CWA
around midnight. HRRR runs...in addition to 30.12Z NSSL-WRF have
been adamant that the structure of this system will remain
intact into at least the CVG Tri- State, and even further east
across northern Kentucky and far southern Ohio before weakening
as it approaches the Scioto Valley. Other CAMS, including the
FV3-WRF and NAM-3km are much less bullish, and either trend the
the QLCS southward into more of Kentucky, or diminish it as it
enters the Tri-State. Given the dynamics of the synoptic
pattern, I am apt to believe a system with some decent
structure/integrity making its way into the southwest half of
the CWA in the 12A-3A time range. Given this will be coincident
with a 50-60kt 925mb low level jet, transport of damaging gusts
a distinct possibility with the strongest line segments during
the overnight hours. And given extreme low level shear/SRH -
even in the absence of lightning - could not rule out QLCS
mesovortex generation and a brief/weak tornado - chances of this
greatest south of the Ohio River.
The other concern is non-convective wind potential. As the
central Illinois low moves to Michigan and deepens considerably
to a sub 980mb cyclone, pressure falls and mass response will
increase dramatically just ahead of the convective line. Low
level jet at 850mb surges past 80kts, and dry sub-cloud layers
suggest a somewhat favorable lapse rate that could aid in some
of this getting to the surface outside of showers. Confidence in
this is not high, but there is considerable upside/potential if
the lowest 1km lapse rate remains favorable for mixing in the
overnight. If it does...and some NWP forecast soundings suggest
it will (HRRR/GFS, etc) there could be some strong (approaching
50kt) wind gusts both immediately ahead of the showers, and
immediately in their wake.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Actual cold front will be entering the CWA around or just before
sunrise, and cross the area during the morning. A broken line of
weak showers is likely with this feature, and given continued
strong wind fields aloft, some decent gusts still likely through
the early to mid morning hours on increasing cold advection.
Gusty winds continue into the afternoon, with plenty of clouds
and much cooler temperatures. Perhaps some light instability
driven showers or sprinkles on Thursday night as the coldest
air wraps into the forecast area.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The mid level shortwave ejects out of our area Friday morning
allowing any residual pcpn to taper off by Friday afternoon.
Highs Friday reach low 40s north to upper 40s south as high
pressure approaches from the west.
A second burst of mid level energy moves through the region Saturday
afternoon/ evening allowing for another chance of showers. Highs
Saturday in the low to mid 50s. Pcpn moves out of the CWA from west
to east by early hours Sunday morning with low temperatures in upper
30s north/low 40s south.
High pressure Sunday allows for a brief break from pcpn before a
series of mid waves move through the region. Temperatures at the
start of the work week look to be slightly above normal through the
end of the fcst period.
Ensemble guidance hinting at another potent system moving into the
Ohio Valley mid week. Something to watch.
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active weather will occur at the TAF sites tonight.
Through the first few hours, dry VFR conditions are expected,
with southerly winds still gusting into the 20-30 knot range at
times. Winds will increase significantly after 04Z at all TAF
sites, with SSE wind gusts that are expected to exceed 40kts,
and may exceed 45kts. These gusts may occur along with a line of
showers, which could also bring brief MFVR conditions. However,
strong wind gusts are also possible outside of any showers. The
primary time period for the strongest wind gusts has been marked
with a TEMPO group at all of the TAF sites. Even after this
period has ended, some very gusty SSE winds will continue
through the morning, and even into the day on Thursday.
MVFR conditions will eventually move into the TAF sites before
daybreak Thursday, with ceilings lifting/scattering to VFR by
afternoon for all sites except KDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Thursday night into
Friday morning. MVFR conditions are possible Saturday night.
Winds from 20 to 30 mph, combined with air temperatures in the
70s to lower 80s, and dewpoints in the 30s and 40s, has led to a
large area of Red Flag Warning conditions across Kentucky and
southern Ohio today. Some of these conditions are quite extreme
for the local climatology, especially along the Scioto River in
south central Ohio and into northern Kentucky where RH values
below 20% have been noted. Conditions are peaking now and will
begin to stabilize with the loss of sun angle after 6 PM, which
will reduce some of stronger winds/gusts. This...and persistent
moisture advection...should add boundary layer moisture /RH/
quite readily after about 7 PM which should greatly improve the
fire weather conditions in all areas.
OH...High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ026-034-035-
Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ064-065-073-074-
KY...High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ089>096.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ097>100.
IN...High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for INZ050-058-059-
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1053 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
An upper level low exited to the east this morning as another low
enters the forecast area form the north. Snow fell across areas
of western and north central Nebraska last night. So far, snowfall
of up to 2 inches has been reported in northern Nebraska and the
greatest liquid amounts have been in western Nebraska, around .4
inches. Snow showers began to redevelop in northern Nebraska this
morning and should spread south this afternoon. Strong
northwesterly wind gusts lasted through the night, peaking in the
early morning hours. Winds have subsided somewhat this afternoon
but remain gusty, with speeds of 30 to 40 mph. Temperatures were
in the lower to middle 30s.
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Snow is exiting swrn Nebraska and a forecast update is in place
for snow ending across this region. The rest of the forecast is on
UPDATE Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
The area snow on across the Sandhills and swrn Nebraska is holding
together quite well; likely the result of an 800mb cold pool shown
by the RAP model. A modest increase in POPs to the likely
category is warranted for this forecast update.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
The active period of weather will begin to wind down tonight. An
upper level low, currently centered over western Nebraska, will
continue to track south out of the state tonight. Forecast
soundings and cross section models indicate some mid level lift
and frontogenesis lasting into the afternoon and early evening.
Most of the precipitation should be in the form of snow today, and
any liquid precipitation will transition to snow after sunset as
temperatures cool. The highest final snow totals are expected to
be in the Sandhills and northern Nebraska. Confidence is low in a
substantial snow pack developing as the ground is warm and much
some of the snow will melt on impact.
Wind gusts should diminish through the night as the surface low
tracks far to the east and surface high pressure begins to build
into Nebraska. Dryer air aloft will begin to work into the area
later tonight, resulting in clear skies by the early morning hours.
Cold air at the surface, combined with radiational cooling due to
clear skies, should result in temperatures falling into the upper
teens and low 20s tonight.
Quieter weather is in store for Thursday. A slight ridging pattern
develops aloft as a shortwave trough begins to move into the
Mountain West. At 850 mb westerly and southwesterly flow will advect
warm air into western Nebraska in the afternoon, reaching
temperatures of 9 to 10 degrees Celsius. Surface high temperatures
will be in the 50s, a few degrees below normal for the end of March.
The next system begins to approach the forecast area late on
Thursday as a shortwave moves into the area from the northwest along
with a cold front at the surface. Precipitation would start on the
Pine Ridge in the form of snow or a rain snow mix. Forecast
soundings appear to show some lift in the DGZ, improving towards
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
As the shortwave trough moves into Nebraska during the day on
Friday, precipitation will spread across the forecast area. It
should change to rainfall as temperatures increase during the day.
Highs will reach the upper 40s to 50s. Totals appears to be light at
this time. The moisture is coming over the Rocky Mountains and PWATs
are around .4 inch. A better moisture tap will be drawn into eastern
Nebraska later in the day, but that will be after the front is east
of the forecast area.
Another ridge builds over the Great Plains on Saturday and Sunday
which should result in clear skies and near or above normal
temperatures at the surface. The next opportunity for precipitation
after that comes early next week as an upper level low moves into
the northern Plains. Will continue to monitor this for timing and
potential for precipitation.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Snow continues to move south across the Sandhills and southwest
Nebraska, with MVFR/IFR CIGs and visibilities occurring. Snow
will exit the area early tonight though lowered CIGs look to
persist longer. A gradual improvement to VFR is expected after
midnight CDT area wide, with VFR persisting into tomorrow
evening. Winds remain gusty this evening from the north at around
20 to 30kts, before weakening overnight.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1035 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022
A strong area of low pressure will move from the Mississippi River
Valley to the Great Lakes through Thursday. A warm front associated
with the low will lift northward through early Thursday, then a
strong cold front will cross the region from west to east Thursday
night. High pressure is expected to return Friday into Saturday
before another area of low pressure moves up and off the coast
Sunday. High pressure likely makes a return to start next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Current surface analysis shows an area of low pressure centered
over IL. This area of low pressure will rapidly deepen as it
lifts northward into the Great Lakes overnight. As it lifts to
the north, it will move a surface warm front northward through
the area overnight. This will keep temperatures mild overnight,
with temperatures falling off briefly this evening, before
rising through the 50s to near 60 by daybreak. Winds will
increase out of the south and become quite gusty. Skies will
remain cloudy, with lower clouds moving in throughout the night.
However, most locations should remain dry through much of the
Low pressure will continue to lift northward through southern
Quebec into western Ontario tomorrow. Showers will start to
break out across the area tomorrow morning as forcing for ascent
downstream of the approaching upper trough starts to overspread
the area. These showers will be focused primarily across
western portions of the forecast area during the morning hours
before gradually spreading eastward during the afternoon hours.
Skies should stay mostly cloudy, but a few filtered breaks of
sunshine may occur between the showers. By afternoon, most
locations should make it into the 70s (primarily due to
advection), with dewpoints climbing into the upper 50s to around
60. This will lead to the development of limited surface based
instability (on the order of 200-500 J/kg). Gentle height falls
downstream of the trough, coupled with the instability present
will lead to the development of thunderstorms across the area,
primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. Some CAMs
(notably the 00z HRRR and 00z FV3) have hinted at a relatively
cellular convective mode, which seems plausible given the
relatively gentle height falls and lack of a stronger shortwave
to encourage rapid upscale growth. Given the very strong shear
in place (70-90 knots of flow at mid-levels), any isolated cells
would become supercellular in nature. All hazards (tornadoes,
hail, and damaging winds) appear possible, especially if the
storm mode is primarily supercellular. Damaging winds appear to
be the primary threat, given the very strong low- level jet
that will be in place (50-70 knots at 1 km). Winds will be very
gusty, even outside of storms, with southerly winds in clear air
potentially approaching Wind Advisory criteria.
There may also be a threat for localized flash flooding. If the
convective mode does turn out more linear, there is a large
component of the flow aloft parallel to any initiating
boundaries, so there could be some localized training of storms
(in spite of the very fast storm motions). Any storms should
progress eastward throughout the evening hours. We`ll continue
to monitor the threat for severe storms through the night and
into the day tomorrow.
The system`s cold front will sweep across the area from west to
east overnight, causing winds to turn westerly and temperatures
to drop. Overnight lows will range from the lower 30s in the
mountains to the low-mid 50s to the east of I-95.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper trough will swing through the area during the day
Friday. This will lead to ample cloud cover. Winds will be very
gusty out of the west, with gusts approaching Wind Advisory
criteria possible. Locations along the Allegheny Front will see
upslope snow showers, with minimal accumulations possible. Skies
will clear out Friday night with high pressure building into
the region. Temperatures will be more seasonable.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
To start off the weekend, high pressure will settle over the
Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast. This ensures dry conditions
for Saturday with temperatures slightly below climatology for early
April. A progressive longwave pattern allows the next system to
approach the region early Sunday. The height falls attendant to this
wave form a weak low pressure system offshore of the Delmarva by
Sunday evening. Any precipitation that accompanies this trough is to
be on the lighter side and mainly focused over the terrain. Aside
from the Alleghenies which see temperatures fall a bit, area-wide
highs stay close to Saturday`s forecast. By Sunday night, lows will
be in the 30s, with low 40s along and east of I-95.
For the early portion of next week, mid/upper heights gradually
build with dry conditions through at least Monday. The upstream
pattern begins to amplify some heading into the early to middle
portions of next week. While some rain showers may move in along the
west-east oriented stalled front, the first half of Tuesday should
remain dry. Moisture will continue given the persistence of
southerly flow leading to more cloud cover. This is accompanied by
more widespread rain heading into the evening and night. Tuesday`s
high temperatures may approach the 70 degree mark given enough
breaks in the clouds.
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread low clouds tonight with MVFR cig restrictions and
LLWS. Strong gradient winds Thursday afternoon with gusts 35 to
40 kts, higher near thunderstorms. Winds begin to diminish after
02Z Friday, but remain gusty 20-25 kt into Friday.
Expecting VFR conditions for the upcoming weekend. Even if a
few showers were to cross the western terminals, do not
anticipate any restrictions. Winds shift the second half of the
weekend with prevailing northwesterly flow.
SCA conditions through tonight, then gale conditions likely
Thursday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are also
possible late Thursday evening into the early part of overnight
which may require SMWs. While gale conditions may fall by the
wayside, SCA may evolve late Thursday night into Friday.
Winds largely stay below small craft caliber this weekend. However,
brief gusts could near 20 knots across the northern half of the
Chesapeake Bay on Sunday.
Water levels will continue to rise through Thursday evening on
strengthening southerly flow. Despite that, no coastal flooding
is expected. PETSS guidance is the only guidance showing coastal
flooding, but this guidance has been a poor performer so far
this year in srly flow.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for ANZ530>543.
Gale Warning from noon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>543.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
648 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
- Concern is mainly for freezing drizzle and snowfall potential
tonight from southern MN to west-central WI.
A couple of small bands of sleet, snow, and some raindrops have
developed over eastern MN early this afternoon. The heaviest band is
currently over the Twin Cities metro where we had steady sleet at
the office for about an hour. Meanwhile, the snow in western MN has
tapered off to isolated light snow/mist with the associated
deformation zone weakening. Any remaining activity will progress
east into this evening as the surface low (currently over the IA/WI
border) slowly moves east. QPF accumulations will not be too heavy
with enough rain to keep surfaces wet and nuisance amounts of ice
However, starting this evening the surface low will be rejuvenated
by an incoming secondary trough. This will act to strengthen the
deformation zone leading to more widespread lift and precip near the
periphery of the low. Forecast soundings across southeastern MN into
western WI show potential for steady freezing drizzle as saturation
is present below the DGZ within strong lift while surface
temperatures hover near freezing. Saturation eventually builds into
the DGZ tonight meaning a changeover to snow. Snow accumulations are
forecast to be near an inch, but with freezing drizzle expected
prior have opted to issue a Special Weather Statement for portions
of southern MN tonight. Roads could be quite slick in this region.
Freezing drizzle also looks possible across these areas as the snow
exits with profiles beneath the DGZ remaining saturated while
surface wet-bulb temperatures are sub-freezing. Lows tonight will
range from the upper 20s to near 30.
Cloud cover will lessen from west to east during Thursday as the
aforementioned storm system moves away. But, highs will still be
cool in the upper 30s to near 40 as a thermal trough shifts east
over the Upper Midwest. Winds will also be breezy out of the
northwest with gusts to 20-25 mph. Thursday night is forecast to be
chilly as the thermal trough does not clear our area in time and
skies clear. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 20s. Luckily,
Friday marks the end of our cool spell and temperatures should hover
near normal for the rest of the period.
A few chances of precipitation are possible for the rest of the
period. The first arrives Friday evening as a disorganized trough
passes through the Northern Plains. Forecast models produce broad
but light QPF, focused mainly across the southern-half of MN. In
addition, the lack of an elevated warm nose means precip type will
be either rain, snow, or a mix, depending on surface temperatures.
Models show another possible weaker, more compact system arriving
late Sunday. PoPs as of now are only 20-25% and much like Friday`s
setup, the precip type will be rain and/or snow. The final system of
the period arrives near mid-next week as a strong upper-level jet
develops an amplified trough over the central CONUS. However, large
differences remain in the forecast models to draw any conclusions
about the resultant forecast at this time.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
The surface low this evening will undergo significant deepening over
Michigan tonight, which will shift the strongest forcing and heaviest
precip to the east of the MPX area. We will maintain a moist cyclonic
flow and cloud cover through the night, though that looks to remain
mostly MVFR. We will see occasional pockets of lift develop through
the night for eastern MN and western WI that will result in some
light precip (mostly snow), but nothing of significance is expected.
We will see clearing move in from the northwest on Thursday, but
there continues to be a fair amount of spread with how quickly that
clearing moves southeast through the day. With the 00z TAFs, did
delay those improvements by a couple of hours.
KMSP...21z RAP forecast sounding showed the potential for some light
precip between 2z and 5z and with the band developing to the
northwest on radar, this may come to fruition, with the potential for
a brief 2sm vis type snow in that window. Other than that, expect
MVFR cigs (though better higher than 017) through most of Thursday
morning, with improvements happening Thu afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Chc IFR/-RASN overnight. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SAT...Chc MVFR/-RASN in mrng. VFR aftn. Wind NW 15G25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
636 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Our upper level trough will continue to move off to the east along
with the stratus and rain chances. A fairly thin band of scattered
light rain nearly along the I-35 corridor will continue to move
eastward although will be hit and miss with trace to little
accumulations. With all of our area behind this mornings cold front
passage, gusty north-northwesterly winds will continue until after
sundown. Mesonet observations still showing 40-45 mph wind gusts
across northwest Oklahoma. Not too surprising since strong mixing
to 850 mb under clearing skies, although NAM & RAP weaken the 850 mb
winds by late afternoon to below advisory criteria. Although wind
gusts across our southwest have trended below advisory criteria,
will maintain our Wind Advisory for at least a few more hours or
until it expires at 6 pm.
After sundown, winds should be diminish and go light and variable
overnight. It will be much colder tonight with radiational cooling
enhancement with temperatures dropping near to just below freezing
across northern Oklahoma, to mid to upper 30s across much of the
remainder of our Oklahoma areas, to lower 40s near and south of the
Red River into northern Texas. A much weaker shortwave trough will
be digging through tonight, bringing a return of stratus and light
rain to sprinkles across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas
during the early morning hours of Thursday. Northwest winds will
pick up again late Thursday morning, although not as windy as today.
However, did increase the windspeeds slightly by 50% of the NBM 90th
percentile. Thursday afternoons temperatures will stay slightly
cooler than seasonably average for the end of March.
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Surface winds early Thursday night will be light and variable, but
will become southerly overnight, as surface high pressure builds
eastward. Clouds will increase and thicken on Friday, as a trough
quickly approaches the central U.S. Light rain is possible across
western parts of the area Friday afternoon/evening, before shifting
eastward across central and eastern section during the evening and
overnight. Overall, rainfall amounts should be light, but very weak
elevated instability may allow for convective elements and perhaps a
few rumbles of thunder.
After a cool start Saturday morning, abundant sunshine, a light
wind and mild temperatures will result in fabulous weather conditions
A more active weather pattern appears to arrive Sunday into
early next week. Moisture return on Sunday (per blended guidance)
suggest dewpoint temperatures ranging from the lower 50s across
southern Oklahoma and northern Texas, with lower values farther
north. With an easterly flow over the western Gulf and recirculated
air (most areas) from the east, only meager moisture return seems
likely. However, a northern stream system is expected to push a
cold front into far northwest Oklahoma by late Sunday afternoon.
This along with a possible jet max approaching late evening, may
be sufficient for storm development along and near the front.
If this occurs (and a big if), storms may continue to form and move
south and eastward overnight into Monday morning. This would likely
help push the front farther south as well.
For now, will go with the idea of deeper/stronger convection
shifting southward Monday, perhaps into northern Texas, but the
overall confidence is low at this time. Hopefully, much of the area
can receive much needed rain with a low severe risk. Again,
confidence is low.
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
The low clouds (although still generally VFR ceilings) are moving
east out of the area with mid-level clouds increasing in the west.
There is the potential for a relatively brief period of MVFR
ceilings in north central Oklahoma Thursday morning, mainly near
KPNC. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Winds will diminish
within an hour or so and be relatively light overnight before
increasing from the northwest again after sunrise Thursday
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 36 60 38 69 / 0 0 0 10
Hobart OK 36 65 38 72 / 20 0 0 20
Wichita Falls TX 42 67 41 75 / 20 0 0 10
Gage OK 30 63 37 72 / 0 0 0 30
Ponca City OK 31 57 33 69 / 0 10 0 10
Durant OK 41 64 38 71 / 0 0 0 10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
814 PM PDT Wed Mar 30 2022
.UPDATE...The breezy to windy conditions today were the result of
a weather system pushing through the region. As the system moves
away from the area tonight...the showers over the WA/OR cascades
along with the breezy winds are forecast to lessen overnight
although brief winds gusts between 20 to 30 mph remain possible
across some locations of north central Oregon and south central
WA. Otherwise minor changes were done to the winds and temps that
are forecast to fall into the 30s with 20s in the mountains
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 458 PM PDT Wed Mar 30 2022/
Tonight through Saturday....A trough and cold front continues to
move across the region. The trough axis will pass over the area
during the late afternoon and be east of Washington and Oregon
The precip shield in the NAM seems to be overdone on the east
side of the Cascades, mainly due to downsloping. The HRRR and RAP
appear to be handling things better with more isolated
precipitation. However, any precipitation will linger through the
evening and overnight hours in the northwesterly flow before
Winds will remain breezy through the afternoon and into the
evening, especially in the Kittitas Valley, Columbia Basin and
Gorge and Blue Mountain Foothills due to the pressure gradient
behind the frontal passage. These gradients are expected to relax
later tonight and the winds will decrease. While conditions are
marginal, will leave the wind advisory in place for the Kittitas
Valley. Some of the strongest winds are currently occurring.
Thursday into Friday look dry. First, in northwesterly flow,
despite another short wave moving across the area on Thursday
then in a building ridge Thursday night into early Friday. The
ridge will flatten by later Friday.
As the ridge flattens and the flow becomes more zonal, another
potent shortwave and upper trough will move onshore Friday night
into Saturday bringing another chance of mainly mountain
precipitation. Snow levels look to be mainly in the 2500-3500 foot
level in the Washington Cascades and 3500-4500 feet in the Blues.
However, there is not a lot of moisture to work with and any snow
amounts are expected to be light.
High temperatures will continue to be below normal on
Thursday...from near 50 degrees in central Oregon to around 60 in
the Basin. By Friday and Saturday, highs will be above normal,
from the lower 60s in central Oregon to the mid 60s in the Basin.
Central Oregon will be a bit cooler on Saturday, while the Basin
will be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will mainly be in the
20s and 30s tonight and Thursday night and in the 30s Friday
Saturday night through Wednesday. A trough will be exiting the
region Saturday night with a ridge moving through Sunday. Active
weather returns late Sunday as strong trough is expected to move
through Sunday night through Monday. There is still some
uncertainty with the models and their ensembles but the main area
of concern will be the Washington Cascades with snow potential
Sunday night through Monday night and much of the lower elevation
areas with high wind potential Monday and Tuesday as highlighted
in the ECMWF EFI. Snow levels are expected to be 2500 to 3000 feet
Monday along the Washington Cascades and 4500 to 5000 feet from
central Oregon through the Blue Mountains. On Tuesday with the
northwest flow, snow levels will be lower ranging from 2000-2500
feet across the region. Preliminary snow amounts from Sunday night
through Tuesday range from 10-18 inches along the Washington
Cascades and 8-12 inches for the Oregon Cascades and 3-6 inches
for the Blue Mountains. This will need to be monitored for possible
highlights as the track become more certain. On Wednesday, another
ridge is expected with mainly dry conditions. Temperatures will
around seasonal values through the period. 93
AVIATION...vfr conditions will persist across all taf sites for the
next 24 hours. However brief gusts between 30 to 35 mph will continue
to impact the taf sites except for taf sites krdm and kbdn then
decrease after 04z.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 34 54 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 38 59 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 39 60 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 31 60 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 36 59 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 33 55 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 27 51 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 31 52 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 30 48 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 39 60 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
930 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
...New SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 929 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
We`ve had some clearing this evening in the wake of the upper low
that brought the early morning severe weather and spotty showers
this afternoon. The clearing will be relatively short-lived
however, as the next PV max is on its heels sliding southeast over
western KS attm. Liked the more aggressive CONSShort and HRRR for
increasing clouds by 12Z vs the slower NBM. We will also maintain
at least some NW wind thru morning, possibly even picking up a bit
toward 12Z across NE OK/NW AR. Thus, despite forecast lows near
freezing tonight, this forecast will follow the same philosophy as
the day shift by holding off on frost/freeze headlines. Updated
zones to remove precip wording as well.
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Cloud cover will increase Thursday in association with the
aforementioned storm system. The chance of light rain near the
Kansas and Missouri borders is nonzero, but current thinking
remains that it should stay north of the borders. Below normal
temperatures can be expected through the day Thursday, with
another round of near freezing overnight temperatures Thursday
night into early Friday morning. A better chance of frost will
exist during this time frame given high pressure and lighter winds
over the area. While frost will be mentioned in the forecast, later
shifts may need to consider a Frost Advisory for Friday morning.
Near normal temperatures will make a return Friday, ahead of
another fast moving storm system that will bring showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday morning. Neither heavy
rain nor severe weather appear likely with this system.
Warm weather will persist through the weekend, with a more active
weather pattern arriving for early week. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase primarily Sunday night and into Monday as a
front pushes through part of the forecast area and stalls. This
will lead to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
affecting the area through at least Tuesday, when the upper level
system is currently expected to clear the area. Heavy rain and
flooding will be a concern given the well above normal PWATs
forecast and multiple rounds of rain expected. The severe weather
threat is also nonzero, especially across southern portions of the
area. Both the heavy rain/flooding and severe weather details will
be refined further in the next few days.
Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
MVFR cigs(MVFR vsbys in -RA across NW AR)will scatter out/end this
evening from west to east, resulting in VFR conditions during the
overnight period. A secondary upper wave will bring additional
cloud cover after 14z to mainly the NE OK/ NW AR sites where a
period of MVFR cigs is possible across the NE OK sites, with MVFR
cigs to prevail for the remainder the period at the NW AR sites
after 15z-16z. KFSM may see a period of MVFR cigs between 15z-19z,
however VFR elements will prevail at that site for the remainder
of the TAF period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 35 57 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 37 57 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 36 58 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 33 56 33 69 / 0 10 0 0
FYV 32 52 31 65 / 10 10 0 0
BYV 34 49 33 65 / 10 10 0 0
MKO 35 54 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 33 51 32 67 / 0 10 0 0
F10 35 57 36 70 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 39 62 38 70 / 10 10 0 0