Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/30/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
855 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Forecast remains largely in track this evening. Have updated
winds and PoPs to come more in line with current CAM timing and
intensity. Still expecting a windy day tomorrow followed by
strong to severe thunderstorms overnight tomorrow night.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday/...
Winds out of the south and southeast overnight will begin to
advect higher dewpoints back into the area ahead of an upcoming
storm system. Within the southerly flow, dewpoints should climb
from the 30s earlier this morning to the upper 40s and low 50s by
In the mid- to upper-levels, a strong longwave trough will be
swinging through the southeast beginning Wednesday afternoon, with
a very strong low-level jet with winds in excess of 60 kts at
850 hPa over much of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon through
the night. With strong mixing anticipated this momentum will mix
towards the ground as southerly winds up to 20 mph with
occasional gusts to 35-45 mph are anticipated which has prompted a
Wind Advisory for the majority of the forecast area. With dry
fuels, dangerous fire weather conditions are also expected with
details in the Fire Weather section below.
Wednesday night, a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected
to push into the forecast area with a Slight Risk for Severe
Thunderstorms in the Day 2 Outlook primarily due to damaging wind
gusts. With wind speeds at 850 hPa expected to be around 60-70
kts, momentum carried downward through convective downdrafts could
cause several instances of damaging wind gusts. However, lack of
surface based instability during the passage of the line of storms
may be our saving grace, with very little SBCAPE expected
overnight. There are some questions to the amount of SBCAPE in the
forecast area though as early runs of the extended HRRR are
pushing surface dewpoints higher than forecast, and could increase
surface-based instability going into the overnight hours. These
trends will need to be monitored carefully, as increases to
surface instability to increase the effectiveness of storms to
carry severe wind gusts towards the ground, but will also allow
surface-based convection to harness high levels of 0-1 km shear
and favorable hodographs for tornadic development in the lower
levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, the extent of the severe
threat will be highly dependent on how high dewpoints get in NW
GA by Wednesday evening, but currently storms are expected to be
more sheared with minimal to any instability near the ground.
The line of storms are expected to be just past the I-85 corridor
by sunrise on Thursday morning, pushing the severe threat to
portions of the southeast forecast area on Day 3 where another
Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms has been outlooked. The main
threat again will be damaging wind gusts as hodographs look much
less favorable for tornadic development but with strong upper-
level winds remaining aloft.
All in all, around one to two inches of rain is expected
throughout the forecast area, with some locally higher amounts
possible. This may not be enough to cause much if any flooding
but should be a reprieve from recent fire weather concerns.
LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Extended period begins with surface front exiting the southeastern
CWA and surface ridging building in. Main 500mb trof axis over
the great lakes region continues to lift to the NE leaving the
southern US in more of a broad zonal flow atop the decaying
surface boundary over FL. Friday looks pleasant and dry as surface
ridging traverses the region ahead of a weak shortwave
approaching from the NW within the upper flow. Moisture appears
limited and contained mostly with the upper system which passes
north of the region and with the remnant surface boundary tied up
along the gulf coast...making for a wet start to the spring
breakers. Model blended guidance suggesting low end pops possible
on later Saturday into early Sunday with that passing
system...however several deterministic runs not giving much in the
way of QPF for sunday. Have mention of showers with the low end
pops but not optimistic in seeing much rainfall. Any rain chances
will be highest further south and across Central and South GA with
more limited chances across Northern GA.
Monday and Tuesday are transition days as weak W/NW flow aloft
and surface ridging set up across the SE ahead of a developing
system over the central US which will be our next
weather maker...possibly severe event...toward the middle of next
Temperatures will be running near to slightly above climo for the
majority of the extended with the warmest days near the end as
the upper ridge builds ahead of the deepening trough.
Dry air aloft combined with strong vertical mixing has pushed
afternoon RH values generally in the low to upper 20s with areas
of east central Georgia meeting critical thresholds below 25
percent. A Fire Danger Statement is issued for this area through
the rest of the afternoon, with an increase in Wildfire activity
being seen on Georgia Public Wildfire Viewer.
Overnight, moisture will begin moving back into the area as
winds strengthen out of the south and southeast. With increasing
dewpoints, RH values should only drop into the low to mid 30s
Wednesday afternoon, however, very strong southerly winds are
expected by the afternoon with a Wind Advisory in effect for most
of the forecast area starting at 1100 hours. Sustained winds up
to 20 mph with wind gusts from 35 to 45 mph are expected which
could cause dangerous fire behavior from any pre-existing
wildfires across the forecast area. A Fire Danger Statement will
be needed after the current statement`s expiration.
VFR expected for the next 24 hours at all terminals expect KAHN.
As moisture moves back into the area cloud coverage will increase
especially at KAHN where MVFR conditions could be realized
overnight. Winds between 5-10 kts from the S-SE expected
overnight. Tomorrow morning, as our next weather system
approaches, SE winds will increase to 10-15kts with gusts up to
25kts. By the afternoon winds will reach 20-25kt with gusts as
high as 35kts. Have introduced a PROB30 at KATL for the
convection expected to move through the terminals tomorrow night.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 51 81 60 75 / 0 0 100 100
Atlanta 54 82 60 75 / 0 0 100 80
Blairsville 47 72 53 70 / 0 0 100 90
Cartersville 54 82 57 74 / 0 0 100 70
Columbus 57 85 61 79 / 0 0 100 90
Gainesville 49 78 59 74 / 0 0 100 90
Macon 54 86 62 78 / 0 0 90 100
Rome 54 83 58 73 / 0 0 100 70
Peachtree City 54 83 59 77 / 0 0 100 90
Vidalia 57 85 65 75 / 0 0 50 100
Wind Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for the
following zones: Baldwin...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
759 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Issued at 726 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Updated the forecast to cancel the severe thunderstorm watch. Wind
directions are a bit tricky, especially near the surface low. Wind
gusts are kicking up enough dust to reduce visibility down to 5
miles or less.
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Main forecast concerns are fire weather, strong winds, and light
precip chances (including slim chance of thunderstorms) in the
Summary...Significant to extreme fire conditions will continue
through early evening. Fire conditions by late evening and into
the overnight, while not necessarily extreme, will still be
worrisome due to arrival of strong cold front, wind shift to the
northwest, and wind gusts 40-50 MPH. There`s a slim, but non-
zero, chance for thunderstorms in a narrow window from around
5-6pm through 9-10pm, mainly north and east of the Tri-Cities.
Areas of light rain, perhaps mixed with wet snow, may continue
overnight and into Wednesday morning, but significant amounts of
either are not expected. The main story Wednesday will be much
colder temperatures and continuation of still NW-N wind. Another
bout of light rain/snow is possible Wed night. The rest of the
forecast will feature mainly near-normal temperatures and
occasional light precip chances.
Forecast Details...Latest sfc obs indicate a sub-990mb low
pressure is crossing the area now from SW to NE. A dryline extends
S from the low into KS, and a warm front extends ESE/SE. In fact,
latest UEX radar data shows both the dry line and a retreating
warm front quite well, with the inferred triple point directly
over EAR. Wind at LXN has switched to the NW. The warm front is
quite obvious as temps spiked into low 80s and RHs fell into teens
here at the office as the warm front passed through. Areas S of
the warm front are most at risk for wind gusts of 40-50 MPH next
couple of hrs, and there has even been a recent 59 MPH gust from
KU Mesonet in Mitchell Co.
Three main concerns for the evening: 1) ongoing extreme fire
conditions (discussed below) 2) narrow window for strong (maybe
one or two severe?) and 3) strong winds with cold front. The
narrow window for strong storms will be across areas N and E of
the Tri-Cities...S of the warm front and E of the dry line. It
appears the primary moisture axis has been shunted E/SE of the
forecast area...and think this will be the main area of concern.
Recent SPC MCD covers this well. However, recent satellite and
radar trends suggest a secondary area of potential development to
the N/NE of triple point. Have seen incr ltng strikes in this
area, and recent HRRR runs have hinted at development near ODX.
Can`t rule out strong or marginally severe storm simply because
of the very steep lapse rates, strong shear, and strong ambient
winds. If this were to occur, it would be between 5-10PM (10PM
probably on the safe side). The main limited factor, however, will
be limited instability as MUCAPEs look to remain less than 500
J/kg. This general area, overall, will also have best chcs for
stratiform shwrs later this eve/tonight.
A strong cold front will quickly accelerate SE across the Plains
as the sfc low continues to lift NE. Winds along and behind the
front will be strong...sustained 25-30 MPH, gusting 40-50 MPH.
Expect the passage to be between 01Z to 06Z. Decr PoPs late
overnight as models have really decr the organization of
deformation/wrap around pcpn. In fact, may be completely dry by
09Z per latest HRRR and remain that way for all but the far SE
through early aftn. Somewhat better chcs for rain/snow shwrs will
come with lobes of vorticity wrapping around the parent upper
cycle Wed aftn into Wed night. Both lift and moisture are somewhat
lacking, so don`t think this will turn into a big deal. Winds will
still be elevated, but not as strong as today/Wed AM, and warm
ground temps will retard snow accums given overall lgt rates.
The rest of the forecast will feature mainly near-normal
temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Thu will still have a bit of a
chilly NW breeze, but at least it`ll be sunny. The upper flow will
turn zonal by late week and continue through the weekend and
feature a series of weak, progressive shortwaves. The first wave
will swing through on Fri, bringing mainly lgt rain, perhaps mixed
with some wet snow. Daytime timing would argue against a
changeover. Another wave is expected towards Sunday, but precip
signal is not great. Perhaps a stronger wave towards Tue, but
confidence on details is not great attm.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Cold front swings through tonight with wind turning to the
northwest. Ceilings becoming MVFR overnight. Could be close to
LLWS at KGRI for the first couple of hours near 2K near 45 KTS.
Issued at 445 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Extreme fire conditions will continue for another couple of hrs
late this afternoon and early evening due to S-SW wind gusts 35-45
MPH, perhaps as high as 50-55 MPH in isolated spots, and RHs in
the teens to low 20s. The ongoing RFW may be a bit of a stretch
along I-80, but definitely don`t feel comfortable cancelling any
zones at this time. Winds are beginning to veer to the W behind
the dry line from around EAR to RSL. Once winds turn to the W they
stay that way until a cold front arrives, generally after sunset.
Any fires that maintain after sunset will be impacted by strong
cold front passage between 01Z to 06Z, which will result in wind
shift to NW/NNW and wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH. Cold air advection
will aid in RH recovery, at least. Strong winds will continue into
Wed, but RHs should remain above 30 percent in most areas.
Near critical fire conditions are possible Thu aftn. RHs will
easily fall into 20 to 25 percent range, esp. W of Hwy 281, but
this is also where winds should be lightest, with gusts near or
less than 20 MPH.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ062>064-
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1115 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Issued at 1109 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022
It seems to me our forecast is largely on track. We are seeing
narrow "FGEN" like bands of showers on our radar and within the
past 30 minutes or so we have been getting some reports of sleet
(like at our office) and at Battle Creek from a spotter. I expect
the area of precipitation to greatly expand over the next few
hours. The area with more than a .25 inches of precipitation by 8
am should mostly be north of a line from Hart to Lansing. The area
near Route 10 already had air temperatures near freezing. It is
that area that should get the greatest amounts of freezing rain.
Really no significant change in our forecast is expected
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022
-- Sleet and Freezing Rain tonight --
A wintry mix of precipitation will develop this evening over
portions of Southwest Lower Michigan continuing into Wednesday
morning over Central Lower Michigan. No changes were made to
Winter Weather Advisory across the WFO GRR forecast area.
At the onset this evening between roughly 9 PM and 10 PM sleet
will be the predominant precipitation type quickly switching over
to freezing rain. Freezing rain should be the main precipitation
type in the advisory area between 10 PM and 500 AM. Warm air will
continue to push into the area tonight and by daybreak on
Wednesday much of the area will have switched over to rain with
readings rising above the freezing mark. The last area to switch
over will be Central Lower Michigan which should rise above
freezing by noon on Wednesday. Areas to the south and west of
Grand Rapids will see little to no icing from this event. The area
that will see the most icing will be across Central Lower Michigan
where up to a quarter of an inch of icing is possible. Lake,
Osceola, Clare, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isabella, Montcalm and Gratiot
counties will see the most icing with lesser amounts as you head
south and west of these areas. The greatest impact from this event
will be some icy roads overnight into the Wednesday morning
commute. Also we cannot rule out some scattered power outages
across Central Lower Michigan. The mitigating factor to this
event will be the surge of warm air that rolls in on south winds
on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will range from near 60F across
Southern Lower Michigan to the 40s over interior Central Lower
Michigan so the ice will melt/shed quickly.
-- Periods of Rain and a Few Thunderstorms Wednesday into
Wednesday night --
We are still expecting a good round of rain beginning tonight and
lasting through the day on Wednesday into Wednesday night. The
heaviest rain will be for areas north and west of Grand Rapids
through this event across West Central Lower Michigan. WPC
continues to indicate that 1-2 inches of rain is possible across
river basis across Central Lower Michigan. Our lowest river levels
are currently in this area. Higher river levels are in place
towards I-94 and the upper reaches of the Grand and the Kalamazoo
basins. Thankfully, lesser amounts are expected in these areas,
generally an inch or less.
As for thunderstorms, the message remains the same with limited
instability due to poor mid level lapse rates. We have a chance
for thunder from late tonight into Wednesday night. At this time
we agree with the SPC forecast of General Thunder. Any stronger
cells that manage to organize will need to be monitored for wind
however, given the 50-60 knots of wind in the 2k to 5k layer.
-- Limited weather concerns beyond the mid week system --
There will be some wrap around light snow and lake effect Thursday
into Thursday night, but not expecting this to amount to much. It
will be blustery on Thursday during the morning. Two weak clipper
systems are forecast, one over the weekend and one early next
week. Both systems look to be rather weak and should not bring
much in the way of impacts.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 753 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022
VFR early, then rain and or freezing rain in the 03z-06z time
frame, mostly rain after 06z. MVFR conditions should be slow to
develop but should set in between 06z and 09z as rain continues to
fall into the dry air and saturates it. There will likely be a
break in rain from mid morning into late afternoon. At that point
the cold front convection starts moving in. The MVFR conditions
may lift during the midday hours if we get deep enough into the
warm air behind the warm front. They will return by evening as the
cold front precipitation area moves through this area. It will be
very windy tonight and Wednesday.
Currently we have solid VFR at all of our TAF sites and it would
seem to me we will continue to see solid VFR till around 03z or
so. There is no rain actually headed this way at this time (23z).
We expect rain to develop overhead early tonight. That is thanks
to a strong warm front heading toward Lower Michigan. However the
air in front of the warm front is very dry. The air being lifted
over the warm front is very moist, being from the Gulf of Mexico.
It stands to reason at some point rain will develop over Southwest
Lower Michigan as the mid- level air saturates. Just about all of
our HI-RES models suggest this should happen in the 02z to 04z
time frame. There is some threat, if the precipitation begins
around 03z, it could be a mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain or
rain, more so in the LAN area than the other TAF sites. I did not
put freezing rain in GRR`s TAF but it is really possible GRR could
see as much as 3 hours of freezing rain (03z-06z). The question is
how quickly the warm air reaches this area to mitigate the wet
bulb cooling impacts. Seems the I-94 TAFS would be close enough to
the warm air to have less of an impact (JXN /GRR is on the south
edge of the area that could see some freezing rain). We will be
watching this closely through.
Some thunderstorms are possible with the cold front but at this
point the risk seemed to low to put in our TAFs yet.
Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022
We will continue with the headlines (Small Craft Advisory) we
have at this point with the caveat that we may need to upgrade to
a Gale Warning as we go forward. Solid SCA conditions look to
prevail tonight and into Wednesday morning with strong southeast
winds of 15 to 30 knots. We could even flirt with gale conditions
tonight as the off shore winds in the nearshore zone nudge up
towards 35 knots at times in the HRRR guidance.
Where we may need to upgrade to a Gale Warning is from around 2 PM
on Wednesday through 8 AM on Thursday. During this time frame
BUFKIT overviews show 40+ knots in the mixed layer. The strongest
winds will likely occur during the time of deepest mixing which is
near the cold front Wednesday night. The overview at MKG shows 50
knots in the mixed layer Wednesday evening. Waves will increase
Wednesday night in strong south to southwest flow. So areas north
up the shore from Holland will see the largest waves in this
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ050-
Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for MIZ037>040-
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1129 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022
No major changes needed to the forecast with conditions generally
evolving as expected. One minor adjustment was to slightly decrease
the dewpoints through 06Z as the WAA and influx of moist air has
been a bit slower than initially expected. Overall rain coverage
continues to decrease, so capped POPs to no higher than 20 to remove
any scattered mention. A non-diurnal temperature curve is
anticipated through the night with the overnight lows already having
occurred across central Indiana as a result of the incoming warm air.
.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022
* Strong southerly winds gusting as high as 50 mph tomorrow
* Thunderstorms with damaging winds possible Wednesday afternoon and
* Elevated fire weather risk tomorrow given high winds and low RH
Rest of Today and Tonight...
The beginning of the short term should be rather mundane as a warm
front slowly lifts north ahead of a developing low. Moisture levels
remain low at the surface, although the mid levels remain nearly
saturated. Marginal lift along the front has lead to some precip
development of light bands, although most of the rain is evaporating
prior to reaching the surface. Rain could reach the ground at a
faster rate later this evening into tonight over northern central
Indiana, as the cloud deck depresses. Total QPF during this period
will be less than a tenth.
Temperatures wont follow a typical diurnal curve as strong WAA and
deep cloud cover inhibit cooling overnight. Still, some evaporative
cooling beneath scattered rain showers to the north should drop
temperatures slightly over north central IN. Expect temperatures in
the low 40s over this region with upper 40s elsewhere.
Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night...
Wednesday`s weather will be much more volatile with 30+ degree
temperature gains, high winds and even a severe weather threat in
The aforementioned low, will continue to deepen as it heads west;
embedded in strong upstream flow and a phased upper level trough. The
upper level system will ingest another vort max over the upper
Rockies, eventually pushing down stream into a negatively tilted
shortwave. This will lower heights rapidly out ahead of this system,
developing a strong LLJ during the day Wednesday.
Simultaneously, a subsidence induced dry layer will progress
northward over the Tennessee Valley reaching Indiana late tomorrow
morning. As this layer moves northward, mixing will allows for the
dry air to reach the surface. In combination with strong WAA, the
PBL will expand rapidly, reaching 1500m by tomorrow afternoon. This
will create ideal conditions for high wind gusts as the turbulence
increases in the PBL mixing the strong LLJ to the surface. Current
expectation are for sustained winds between 20-25mph with gusts
upwards of 50MPH tomorrow afternoon. The combination of high winds
and a drying surface layer will create an elevated fire risk during
the afternoon. See the Fire Section for more details.
Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will also increase rapidly due to
the dry air mixing and strong WAA. The low surface dew points should
allow for near dry adiabatic warming within the PBL, pushing
temperatures into the upper 70s. Main inhibiting factor will be
cloud cover, but the dry air mixing and WAA should overcome the lack
of incoming solar radiation.
A cold front will develop along a strong confluent zone south of the
surface low during the day on Wednesday. Moisture should collect
within the convergence enhancing dew points along the front.
However, with dry air mixing to the surface in the warm sector, this
elevated moisture could have a difficult time progressing eastward
even with strong lift along the boundary. Surface lapse rates are
high given near dry adiabatic PBL, but with dry air, LCLs will be
too high to tap into this buoyant energy. In the mid to upper levels
lapse rates are much lower at around 6C/km. The lack of moisture in
the warm sector, any thunderstorm development will be confined to
along the front. Some moisture aloft will lead to cloud cover and a
stray shower could reach the surface but should be very isolated.
The severe threat in the evening is possible given the intense LLJ
near the boundary. Models are widely varied on how far east the
surface moisture moves along the front, and will play a large role
in how far east the surface based convection will get. Any surface
based convection will have a high chance of tapping into the LLJ.
Directional shear will weaken as the evening progresses and the low
level winds become more southerly. Still, bulk shear should be
sufficient for RIJ development in any organized surface based line.
However, surface based convection looks unlikely to reach central
Indiana at this time (leading to the slight risk over the far SW and
marginal elsewhere). Even in the elevated showers/thunderstorms, a
rogue high wind gust is possible as rain cooled air allows for
.Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022
The low pressure system will be exiting off to the NW at the
beginning of the period. Moisture on the backside of the low will
continue chances for light rain through the day Thursday.
Pressure gradients aloft will continue to be tight through the day
Thursday which will keep sustained winds around 15 to 20 kts and
gusts potentially up to 30 kts. These are expected to drop off
after sunset as mixing decreases and the low pushes further away.
Temperatures will be cooler behind the associated cold front but
will gradually trend warmer, eventually becoming near normal,
throughout the period.
At the surface, high pressure and subsidence will provide drier and
quiet weather for the end of the work week. From Saturday into early
next week, models are hinting at the potential for a couple of short
waves that could bring additional rounds of rain with a day or so
break between the rounds.
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1128 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022
-Wind shift from 110 to 180 around 12Z.
-Wind gusts to 40kts, strongest around 18Z.
-LLWS from 03Z to 15Z.
-MVFR vsbys/cigs after 22Z with SHRA possible TSRA.
DISCUSSION: Winds will continue to increase ahead of a strong LLJ
that will lead to a 40kt wind difference between the surface and 020
causing LLWS. Wind direction will gradually shift near 12Z from the
east to the south with wind speeds picking up rapidly after 12Z. As
surface wind speeds increase, the LLWS concern will taper. An
incoming cold front will bring MVFR cigs/vsbys after 23Z with brief
IFR vsbys possible during heavier rain. A few rumbles of thunder
are likely with the passing rain but not confident enough in
coverage to go any higher than VCTS at this time. There may be
additional LLWS tomorrow night, but the wind difference is much
lower as the LLJ weakens.
...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW...
Will have to watch out for potential wildfires over central Indiana
tomorrow afternoon. Fuel levels will be marginal with dew points
dropping as dry air mixes to the surface. Have blended RAP and ARW
with the NBM to get proper dew point expectations for tomorrow. RH
values will bottom out in the 30s. Winds tomorrow will also be
strong within a turbulent boundary layer. Expect sustained winds
between 20-30MPH with gusts upwards of 50MPH. Use caution if burning
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for INZ021-
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1022 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
KLNX radar indicates a 50kt barrier jet has developed at the
lowest gate leading to gusts to around 50 mph at the sfc. The RAP
model soundings and h850-700mb winds show this jet lasting through
the night. A forecast update is in place for this feature using
the short term model blend, the HRRR and RAP model wind gusts.
UPDATE Issued at 949 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Significant snow is accumulating on the roads across parts of wrn
Nebraska and temperatures have fallen below freezing. A Winter
Weather Advisory is now in effect until 8 am MDT, generally along
highway 61 north of Ogallala and highway 20 west of Valentine.
UPDATE Issued at 829 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
A forecast update is place for snowfall amounts of up to 2 inches
across the Sandhills. The forecast leans on the RAP, HRRR and
short term model blend.
UPDATE Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
A forecast update is in place for additional thunderstorm coverage
across ncntl Nebraska this evening. The update is based on current
radar and lightning trends.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
A cold front moved through western and north central Nebraska today.
Some thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in north central Nebraska
this evening. Any storms that do form should be elevated due to
decent mid level lapse rates. Dry air at the surface may limit the
amount of precipitation that reaches the ground, resulting in virga
instead. Dry lightning could become a threat, especially with the
dry conditions on the ground in surrounding areas. Cooler air within
the storms means that hail is possible, but it should stay
subsevere. The potential for stronger thunderstorms depends on
whether 700 mb frontogenesis advances far enough east into areas
of better atmospheric moisture before the moisture exits to the
The front and associated surface low will continue to slide east
this afternoon and evening, creating a tight pressure gradient
between the low in the east and high pressure along the Front Ranges
of Wyoming and Colorado. Strong winds are expected in the
postfrontal environment. It appears that the time for greatest winds
will be overnight, continuing into Wednesday morning. Current
guidance is suggesting gusts as high as 50 mph. However, confidence
in strong winds has decreased since this is occurring at night.
Mixing to the surface will be limited. Strong winds will also assist
decent cold air advection into the area from the northwest. Combined
with low temperatures on Wednesday morning in the 20s, unseasonably
cold wind chills in the single digits to low teens are possible
across much of the area. Temperatures will also be unseasonably cold
during the day on Wednesday, around 20 degrees below normal.
Light precipitation is expected to continue this evening and through
tomorrow. As cold air advection intensifies overnight, the rain will
gradually transition to snow. Confidence is low in significant snow
accumulation as the precipitation should remain light and ground
temperatures are warm enough to melt snow. A secondary upper level
low will move into Nebraska from the north tomorrow morning which
should provide enough lift for additional light snow in northern
Nebraska during the day. It will be showery in nature and as
temperatures increase during the day to above freezing, it will
likely transition to a rain snow mix or snow pellets. Additional
accumulation should be limited. By tomorrow night, all
precipitation should move to the east of the forecast area. The
highest totals will be near the South Dakota state line, between 1
and 2 inches at most. Other areas to the south will get less than
an inch. Localized areas of blowing snow are possible given the
strong winds overnight and tomorrow morning, but it should be
limited due to the lack of widespread accumulating snow. That
being said, quick reductions in visibility will be hazardous.
Skies will gradually clear out on Wednesday night, and with decent
radiational cooling and northwesterly winds lows will cool into the
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Quiet weather is expected on Thursday with seasonal temperatures.
The next possibility for precipitation will be on Friday and
Friday night as an upper level trough moves through the Great
Plains. It also appears to begin as snow, transition to rain as
temperatures increase on Friday, then turn to snow late Friday
night. Afterwards, a zonal pattern develops aloft over Nebraska
and southerly flow returns at the surface, assisting in WAA.
Temperatures rise to the 60s, which is slightly above normal this
time of year. Another opportunity for precipitation arrives early
next week as an upper level low moves into the northern Plains.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening across
portions of central Nebraska into far north central Nebraska.
Across western Nebraska light rainfall will continue to spread
eastward and change over to snow during the overnight. MVFR
conditions will be possible as cigs lower this evening and visbys
may lower with light to moderate snowfall, especially across the
northern and western Sandhills. Winds will also remain quite gusty
overnight with gust of 35 kts or greater possible.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
924 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Evening guidance still points to a line of strong to severe storms
moving into the area late Wednesday morning into the evening
hours. Damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms.
Tornadoes will also be possible. Storms should exit the area
Wednesday evening. Have made slight adjustments to the forecast,
but otherwise no major changes were made.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022/
DISCUSSION... Strong environmental winds and strong to severe
storms appear on track to arrive in the Midsouth on Wednesday.
Guidance across the range of medium range models to short term
convection-allowing models (CAMs) has remained consistent in
depictions of very high environmental wind shear, coupled with
Tight guidance consensus aside, the most challenging severe
weather parameter to forecast remains instability. Surface dewpoints
have reached 60F along and west of the MS River this afternoon.
These dewpoints may warm a few degrees further overnight and
expand east of the MS River. Following sunrise Wednesday, HRRR
soundings depict modest cooling of surface dewpoints, likely from
the mixing of drier air in the top of the deepening mixed layer.
This may be offset by moisture pooling near the advancing
updraft/downdraft convergence zone. In any case, 18Z HRRR
depicted mixed-layer CAPE was at or below 600 J/kg Wednesday
afternoon. 12Z HREF ensemble mean wasn`t not far off, depicting
mixed layer CAPE of 500-750 J/kg, mainly over north MS.
0-3km SRH of 600-700 m2/s2 will be aided by 850mb winds nearing
80KT at 21Z along the MS River. These winds will be from the SSW,
roughly parallel to the squall line. While serving to elongate
hodographs, deep updraft maintenance may become a challenge if
adequate instability doesn`t materialize. If QLCS segments manage
to bow, some of stronger winds aloft may descend in the northern
half of bowing segments. 18Z HRRR depicts little bowing potential,
but perhaps more concerning, some discrete cells over northeast
MS, in advance of the QLCS.
Proceeding storms, environmental winds in the mixed layer will be
supportive of gusts to 50 mph - sufficient to cause sporadic
The squall line should exit to middle TN by late afternoon/early
evening, leaving wrap-around showers across the Midsouth.
Thereafter, cooler and dry through Friday, following the passage
of a secondary upper trof on Thursday. A few showers can`t be
ruled on Saturday, with the passage of phased upper lows through
the middle and upper MS River valleys. Rain amounts should be on
the light side, especially south of I-40.
Next chance of thunderstorms appears next Tuesday, ahead of a
southern branch trof.
00Z TAF cycle
VFR conditions will continue through at least late Wednesday
morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to move
across the Mid-South from west to east Wednesday afternoon. Some
IFR ceilings will be possible when the thunderstorms move through.
Winds will be mainly from the south at 10 to 15 knots with higher
gusts tonight increasing to 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts on
AR...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Clay-Craighead-
MO...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Dunklin-
MS...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Alcorn-Benton
TN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Benton TN-
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1058 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022
A quiet night ahead for the most part for east-central Florida as
high pressure continues to slide eastward over the western
Atlantic and to the east-northeast of Florida. However, many
updates were need for this evening with confidence increasing on
wind gusts reaching Gale Warning Criteria by Wednesday night into
Thursday morning ahead of a strong approaching frontal system.
Also, interestingly enough, temperatures have been sort of a
challenge with some locations already near their expected low
temperature for Wednesday morning, mainly near the Treasure Coast
and south of Vero where dew points are a few degrees lower than
anticipated. Therefore, some tweaks were made to temperatures and
dew-points to better align with current analysis with values on
pace to drop lower than guidance indicates, especially south and
west of Vero. Lows will reach the mid 50s to low 60s tonight with
patchy fog possible, mainly over the interior.
Additionally, confidence is increasing that we will see some
pretty gusty winds by Thursday morning over the offshore waters.
Guidance has been too low with wind speeds/gusts recently,
especially on days with strong WAA. Models seem to be struggling
with the increased thermal gradient on strong WAA days which has
been leading to higher than forecast wind speeds on most, if not
all, strong WAA days recently. Furthermore, the NAEFS ensembles
indicate some impressive values for Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday with WSP values and the mean meridional wind in the
99th to max percentile range over Florida, in addition to, a
return interval of 1 day every 10 to even 30+ year range. Given
the fact that we will also have a 35-50kt LLJ during the period,
would think frequent gusts of 35kts+ is likely.
Winds will continue to veer to the south-southeast into Wednesday
with winds increasing ahead of a strong frontal boundary
which will reach east-central Florida by the end of the workweek.
Expect winds around 15 to 20kts by Wednesday afternoon nearshore
and up to 25kts offshore. Wind gusts will increase to around 35
to 40kts by Wednesday night over the offshore waters (20-60nm).
SCA in effect Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with the offshore
waters becoming more hazardous by Wednesday evening, prompting a
Gale Watch for the offshore waters.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022/
Current-Tonight...A little warmer and gradually increasing moisture
across ECFL this afternoon. The sea breeze has developed and is
moving inland. Northerly winds will veer onshore thru the remainder
of the day as this feature pushes deeper into the interior. Max
temps will reach the M-U 80s interior, holding in the L80s at the
coast. High pressure emerges over the western Atlc tonight as winds
continue to veer to ESE/SE areawide. This will keep temps milder
overnight, holding in the L-M 60s, except U60s along the immediate
coast. Some normally cooler rural locations across the interior may
realize U50s for mins. The increased SE boundary layer flow would
normally limit fog formation for most (possibly in favor of low
stratus clouds), though the local HRRR is adamant in developing some
fog and due to low confidence have gone ahead and included some
patchy fog wording in the grids/zones. Should any develop the
favored areas would be across the interior, away from the coast.
Wed...High pressure just off of the eastern Florida coast by
daybreak will drift further eastward into the Atlantic, ahead of an
approaching cold front. A tightening pressure gradient between the
two features will lead to breezy to windy conditions. SE/S winds
will be 15-20 mph and even up to 20-25 mph along the coast, with
frequent higher gusts. A Wind Advisory may need to be entertained
for the Space/Treasure coasts. No precipitation is expected.
However, moisture advecting into the region ushered along by
southerly flow will cause values to slowly increase. Though a word
of caution...deeper diurnal mixing could offset the moisture return.
A warming trend continues, with temperatures reaching the U80s to
near 90 inland, with L80s along the coast.
Wednesday Night-Thursday (Modified Previous Discussion)...High
pressure will continue to drift further eastward into the Atlantic,
ahead of an approaching cold front. A tightening pressure gradient
between the two features will lead to breezy to windy conditions
through Thursday. SE/S winds veering SW into Thursday afternoon will
be 15-20 mph, up to 20-25 mph along the coast, with higher gusts. No
precipitation is expected through much of the day on Thursday.
However, moisture advecting into the region ushered along by
southerly flow will increase PWATs to around 1-1.15", so we could
see a few showers and storms ahead of the front Thursday afternoon.
PoPs 20% north of Highway 60 and 30-40% north of Interstate 4.
Thursday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as temperatures
soar to the lower 90s across the interior and increasingly SW flow
leads to the upper 80s even along the coast. At this time, the
record that appears closest to being threatened is at Leesburg,
where the forecast high is currently 89 (the record is 88 set in
2021). Morning lows also warming, remaining in the upper 60s to low
70s each day.
Thursday Night-Friday (Modified Previous Discussion)...As a trough
digs into the Ohio Valley Thursday night, it will drag a surface
cold front into the local area, producing scattered to numerous
showers with embedded thunderstorms (PoPs 30-50% across the south
and 50-70% to the north). Shower and storm chances continue to
increase into the day on Friday, as the front slows and eventually
stalls across central Florida. PoPs 60-80% area wide expected, with
PWATs approaching 2". Temperatures are forecast to cool north of the
stalled front (Melbourne/Kissimmee northward), with highs in the low
to mid-80s there. However, areas along and inland from the Treasure
Coast could remain in the mid to upper 80s. Morning lows in the mid
to upper 60s.
The Weekend-Monday (Modified Previous Discussion)...An unsettled
weather pattern looks to continue into early next week, as higher
moisture lingers across the region. Models continue to support the
stalled front lifting northward as a warm front on Saturday, with
zonal flow developing aloft. This looks to continue through the next
several days, as a series of troughs and/or shortwaves traverse the
eastern US. Thus, scattered to numerous shower and storm chances
look to persist through Monday, though confidence decreases through
the period, as models begin to diverge on solutions, namely a
shortwave over the GOMEX late weekend. Nonetheless, have maintained
PoPs 40-70%. Temperatures are forecast to remain similar to Friday,
with mid 80s north of Melbourne/Kissimmee and upper 80s to the
south. Lows in the mid to upper 60s Saturday and Sunday mornings,
with low to mid 60s Monday morning.
Light NW-N winds are gradually transitioning to NE-E along the
coast this aftn with speeds 5-10 knots. Winds continue to veer SE
tonight holding at 5-10 knots at coastal terminals, a little
lighter interior. Boundary layer flow stronger SERLY tonight which
would favor stratus over fog, though the local HRRR still touts
some fog development. Confidence too low for inclusion into TAFs,
but future shifts will need to monitor TAFs for late overnight
into early Wed morning. As for Wed, the pressure gradient tightens
and gusty SE winds are forecast up to 15 kts interior and near 20
kts at the coast; all with frequent higher gusts.
Afternoon-Tonight...Weak high pressure areas will consolidate off
of the Carolina coast and begin to push seaward overnight. This
will provide an onshore flow this afternoon with winds veering
more ESE/SE this evening and overnight. Current speeds of 6-12 kts
will increase to 12-16 kts tonight as the pressure gradient
tightens ahead of an approaching, slow-moving, cold front. Seas 2
ft with 3 ft offshore building to 3 ft tonight with 4 ft offshore
Volusia and Brevard.
Wed...A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over
the western Atlantic and an approaching cold front will lead to
windy conditions across the local waters. SE winds will increase
further to around 20kts with frequent higher gusts during the day.
At least Cautionary Statements will be necessary for the winds with
marginal SCA conditions that will need to be looked at. Seas 3-4 ft
building to 4-5 ft, possibly up to 6 ft well offshore
(Brevard/Volusia) by late in the day. Conditions will remain
Wednesday Night-The Weekend...A tight pressure gradient between
strong high pressure over the western Atlantic and an approaching
cold front will lead to windy conditions across the local waters. SE
winds Wednesday evening veering S, then SW Thursday night. Speeds
increasing to 20-25 kts Wednesday night and persisting through
sunset on Thursday before beginning to diminish. Thus, boating
conditions will be poor to hazardous and eventual advisories will
likely be needed. In addition to the wind, the approaching front
will lead to increasing shower and storm chances Thursday afternoon
into the overnight hours. Seas 4-6 ft building to 5-7 ft
offshore Thursday morning.
Boating conditions look to improve into the weekend as winds and
seas diminish. However, higher shower and storm chances are expected
to linger into early next week.
Remainder of Afternoon...Ever so gradual
modification of the current dry airmass continues, though min RHs
will still fall into the mid-upper 20s/near 30 percent over the far
interior (along Kissimmee River). A delayed onshore flow (sea
breeze) along the coast has allowed for RHs to fall to around 40pct
along the Space/Treasure coasts, but expect these RH values to pop
back up to 50-60pct once the sea breeze develops and pushes inland.
Winds will remain less than 15 mph.
Wed...Min RHs continue to recover slowly, but will still drop into
the M-U 30s, possibly L30s, through the far interior in the
afternoon. In addition, winds are expected to increase to 15-20 mph
(20-25 mph at the coast) with frequent higher gusts, as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of an approaching front. This will bring the
western portions of the interior counties to near Red Flag criteria,
as ERCs remain high. Prescribed burning on this day will be
discouraged as fuels continue to dry.
Thursday...Minimum RHs will be just above critical values, in the
upper 30s, through parts of the interior. Winds 15-20 mph inland and
20-25 mph along the coast will continue Thursday afternoon.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 63 83 68 89 / 0 0 0 40
MCO 63 89 68 92 / 0 0 0 30
MLB 65 82 70 87 / 0 0 0 20
VRB 64 83 69 88 / 0 0 0 20
LEE 63 88 68 89 / 0 0 0 40
SFB 61 87 67 90 / 0 0 0 30
ORL 64 89 70 92 / 0 0 0 30
FPR 61 83 69 88 / 0 0 0 10
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.
Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Flagler
Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
958 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
Very warm evening across Middle Tennessee with current readings in
the 60s with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. With LLJ increasing to
40 knots overnight, temperatures are not expected to drop
much with lows only falling into the mid 50s to low 60s.
Looking at the latest 00Z guidance for tomorrow including the
HRRR and NAM, not much has changed from previous forecasts.
Southerly low level jet will continue to increase through the day
as upper trough approaches from the west, with guidance showing
50+ kts at just 1k ft agl. With bulk of precip and clouds holding
off until late afternoon and ample heating/mixing during the day,
these winds are expected to easily mix down with surface winds
gusting over 50 mph at times. These winds could easily knock down
some trees and power lines across the area well before the line
of storms arrives later in the day. Wind advisory remains in
effect for the whole area. Speaking of heating, tomorrow looks
like the warmest day so far this year with much of the cwa
reaching the low to mid 80s. Record highs are very possible, with
the record at BNA being 84 set in 1963 and CSV at 80 set in 1998.
As far as the severe weather threat, models continue to depict an
intense QLCS moving across Middle Tennessee roughly from 21Z at
the Tennessee River to 04Z at the east edge of our Plateau
counties. Low and deep layer wind shear is forecast to be
extremely strong with 0-1km shear as high as 55 kts and 0-8km
shear up to 100 kts. Main question continues to be how much
instability we will see this far north. Most guidance keeps any
appreciable MLCAPE along/west of I-24 and only around 100-400
J/Kg at that. Despite the meager instability, the strength of the
upper trough and associated 115kt H5 jet streak, QLCS storm mode,
and extreme shear indicate damaging winds will be a significant
threat with the line of storms. Tornadoes are much more uncertain
due to the low MLCAPE, but currently appears there may be just
enough for a couple of tornadoes - mainly in our southwest
counties south of I-40 and west of I-65. East of I-24, models are
in agreement that there will be little or no CAPE, so I expect
the line of storms to weaken as it moves further into the Upper
Cumberland and onto the Plateau later in the evening. Previous
forecast had all of this covered well, and only made minor
adjustments to grids and zones.
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Southerly winds will be on the increase through the upcoming taf
period. As winds off the surface increase this evening, wind shear
verbiage will be needed. Otherwise, mostly mid and high
cloudiness through 18Z. Aft 18Z however, a frontal system will be
on approach with lower level cu beginning to develop. A line of
showers and tstms will likely reach the CKV are late in the
period. Stronger winds can be expected just ahead of the
approaching line of convection. By the tail end of the taf
period...The strongest storms will most likely be just west of
the BNA area.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT Thursday for
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
928 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
...New SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 916 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Currently keeping a watchful eye on the strong/severe convection
stretching from south central KS into northern OK (which is
coincident with the main axis of surface-based instability).
Instability drops off considerably to the east of this activity,
so there is some question of storm strength over the next few
hours as the convection nears portions of northeast OK.
Of more concern may be the activity currently across parts of
southwest OK into TX. HRRR has remained consistent in showing a
modest increase in instability later tonight (generally after
07-08Z) across southeast OK into western/northwestern AR as
low/mid 60s surface dewpoints surge north. Thus, expect this
convection to continue to organize as it tracks east, with a band
of storms eventually sweeping through the area later tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Low-level helicity values will be
maximized later tonight from southeast OK into western AR, likely
increasing the QLCS tornado/damaging wind threat at least for a
Have made ongoing tweaks to PoPs based on current radar trends.
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Tonight`s strong to severe thunderstorms may linger into the
daylight hours tomorrow morning, but they are expected to
transition east of the area by mid to late morning. With the cold
front still to our west tomorrow morning, another round of showers
and thunderstorms may develop and sweep through the region during
the day, although severe weather is not expected. Expect strong
and gusty northwesterly winds to move in behind the front, in
addition to falling temperatures. Current forecast wind gusts are
right at Wind Advisory criteria for portions of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas but will let later shifts have another look
at it, especially given the multiple watch/warning/advisory
products we currently have out today.
Temperatures behind the front for Wednesday night through Thursday
night will be chillier than what we`ve seen the last few days.
Things will warm up some for Friday, in advance of an upper level
system that will move through late Friday and Friday night. Expect
some showers and thunderstorms through early Saturday, with little
to no severe weather threat.
Much of the upcoming weekend should be fairly quiet, with
temperatures just above normal and dry conditions. Another storm
system early next week will bring more shower and thunderstorm
chances, including some severe weather potential.
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
VFR cigs will prevail tonight outside of expected storm activity.
A cold front will bring MVFR cigs with it on Wednesday. Tempo
groups were used to define the most likely time windows for
convection at each site. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
briefly with the storms. Strong S winds will lessen late tonight
before switching to NW Wednesday behind cold fropa. Gusts 25 to 35
kts possible outside of storms, with 40 to 50 kt gusts possible
with the storms.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 54 64 35 59 / 90 50 0 0
FSM 58 69 38 59 / 90 90 0 0
MLC 56 69 38 60 / 100 40 0 0
BVO 51 60 33 57 / 90 70 0 0
FYV 56 66 32 55 / 100 90 0 0
BYV 56 66 36 52 / 90 100 0 0
MKO 56 67 35 56 / 100 60 0 0
MIO 54 63 33 52 / 100 80 0 0
F10 55 65 36 58 / 100 40 0 0
HHW 57 74 40 62 / 100 80 0 0