Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/30/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
855 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 .UPDATE... Forecast remains largely in track this evening. Have updated winds and PoPs to come more in line with current CAM timing and intensity. Still expecting a windy day tomorrow followed by strong to severe thunderstorms overnight tomorrow night. .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday/... Winds out of the south and southeast overnight will begin to advect higher dewpoints back into the area ahead of an upcoming storm system. Within the southerly flow, dewpoints should climb from the 30s earlier this morning to the upper 40s and low 50s by Wednesday afternoon. In the mid- to upper-levels, a strong longwave trough will be swinging through the southeast beginning Wednesday afternoon, with a very strong low-level jet with winds in excess of 60 kts at 850 hPa over much of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon through the night. With strong mixing anticipated this momentum will mix towards the ground as southerly winds up to 20 mph with occasional gusts to 35-45 mph are anticipated which has prompted a Wind Advisory for the majority of the forecast area. With dry fuels, dangerous fire weather conditions are also expected with details in the Fire Weather section below. Wednesday night, a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to push into the forecast area with a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 Outlook primarily due to damaging wind gusts. With wind speeds at 850 hPa expected to be around 60-70 kts, momentum carried downward through convective downdrafts could cause several instances of damaging wind gusts. However, lack of surface based instability during the passage of the line of storms may be our saving grace, with very little SBCAPE expected overnight. There are some questions to the amount of SBCAPE in the forecast area though as early runs of the extended HRRR are pushing surface dewpoints higher than forecast, and could increase surface-based instability going into the overnight hours. These trends will need to be monitored carefully, as increases to surface instability to increase the effectiveness of storms to carry severe wind gusts towards the ground, but will also allow surface-based convection to harness high levels of 0-1 km shear and favorable hodographs for tornadic development in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, the extent of the severe threat will be highly dependent on how high dewpoints get in NW GA by Wednesday evening, but currently storms are expected to be more sheared with minimal to any instability near the ground. The line of storms are expected to be just past the I-85 corridor by sunrise on Thursday morning, pushing the severe threat to portions of the southeast forecast area on Day 3 where another Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms has been outlooked. The main threat again will be damaging wind gusts as hodographs look much less favorable for tornadic development but with strong upper- level winds remaining aloft. All in all, around one to two inches of rain is expected throughout the forecast area, with some locally higher amounts possible. This may not be enough to cause much if any flooding but should be a reprieve from recent fire weather concerns. Thiem LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/... Extended period begins with surface front exiting the southeastern CWA and surface ridging building in. Main 500mb trof axis over the great lakes region continues to lift to the NE leaving the southern US in more of a broad zonal flow atop the decaying surface boundary over FL. Friday looks pleasant and dry as surface ridging traverses the region ahead of a weak shortwave approaching from the NW within the upper flow. Moisture appears limited and contained mostly with the upper system which passes north of the region and with the remnant surface boundary tied up along the gulf coast...making for a wet start to the spring breakers. Model blended guidance suggesting low end pops possible on later Saturday into early Sunday with that passing system...however several deterministic runs not giving much in the way of QPF for sunday. Have mention of showers with the low end pops but not optimistic in seeing much rainfall. Any rain chances will be highest further south and across Central and South GA with more limited chances across Northern GA. Monday and Tuesday are transition days as weak W/NW flow aloft and surface ridging set up across the SE ahead of a developing system over the central US which will be our next weather maker...possibly severe event...toward the middle of next week. Temperatures will be running near to slightly above climo for the majority of the extended with the warmest days near the end as the upper ridge builds ahead of the deepening trough. Stellman FIRE WEATHER... Dry air aloft combined with strong vertical mixing has pushed afternoon RH values generally in the low to upper 20s with areas of east central Georgia meeting critical thresholds below 25 percent. A Fire Danger Statement is issued for this area through the rest of the afternoon, with an increase in Wildfire activity being seen on Georgia Public Wildfire Viewer. Overnight, moisture will begin moving back into the area as winds strengthen out of the south and southeast. With increasing dewpoints, RH values should only drop into the low to mid 30s Wednesday afternoon, however, very strong southerly winds are expected by the afternoon with a Wind Advisory in effect for most of the forecast area starting at 1100 hours. Sustained winds up to 20 mph with wind gusts from 35 to 45 mph are expected which could cause dangerous fire behavior from any pre-existing wildfires across the forecast area. A Fire Danger Statement will be needed after the current statement`s expiration. Thiem AVIATION...00Z Update... VFR expected for the next 24 hours at all terminals expect KAHN. As moisture moves back into the area cloud coverage will increase especially at KAHN where MVFR conditions could be realized overnight. Winds between 5-10 kts from the S-SE expected overnight. Tomorrow morning, as our next weather system approaches, SE winds will increase to 10-15kts with gusts up to 25kts. By the afternoon winds will reach 20-25kt with gusts as high as 35kts. Have introduced a PROB30 at KATL for the convection expected to move through the terminals tomorrow night. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence on all elements. 28 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 51 81 60 75 / 0 0 100 100 Atlanta 54 82 60 75 / 0 0 100 80 Blairsville 47 72 53 70 / 0 0 100 90 Cartersville 54 82 57 74 / 0 0 100 70 Columbus 57 85 61 79 / 0 0 100 90 Gainesville 49 78 59 74 / 0 0 100 90 Macon 54 86 62 78 / 0 0 90 100 Rome 54 83 58 73 / 0 0 100 70 Peachtree City 54 83 59 77 / 0 0 100 90 Vidalia 57 85 65 75 / 0 0 50 100 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for the following zones: Baldwin...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley... Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga... Cherokee...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...Dade... Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Fannin...Fayette... Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...Gwinnett...Hall...Haralson... Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jasper...Jones...Lamar... Laurens...Lumpkin...Macon...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe... Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Paulding... Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale... Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot... Taylor...Telfair...Towns...Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson... Walker...Walton...Webster...White...Whitfield...Wilcox... Wilkinson. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...28
National Weather Service Hastings NE
759 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 726 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Updated the forecast to cancel the severe thunderstorm watch. Wind directions are a bit tricky, especially near the surface low. Wind gusts are kicking up enough dust to reduce visibility down to 5 miles or less. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Main forecast concerns are fire weather, strong winds, and light precip chances (including slim chance of thunderstorms) in the short term. Summary...Significant to extreme fire conditions will continue through early evening. Fire conditions by late evening and into the overnight, while not necessarily extreme, will still be worrisome due to arrival of strong cold front, wind shift to the northwest, and wind gusts 40-50 MPH. There`s a slim, but non- zero, chance for thunderstorms in a narrow window from around 5-6pm through 9-10pm, mainly north and east of the Tri-Cities. Areas of light rain, perhaps mixed with wet snow, may continue overnight and into Wednesday morning, but significant amounts of either are not expected. The main story Wednesday will be much colder temperatures and continuation of still NW-N wind. Another bout of light rain/snow is possible Wed night. The rest of the forecast will feature mainly near-normal temperatures and occasional light precip chances. Forecast Details...Latest sfc obs indicate a sub-990mb low pressure is crossing the area now from SW to NE. A dryline extends S from the low into KS, and a warm front extends ESE/SE. In fact, latest UEX radar data shows both the dry line and a retreating warm front quite well, with the inferred triple point directly over EAR. Wind at LXN has switched to the NW. The warm front is quite obvious as temps spiked into low 80s and RHs fell into teens here at the office as the warm front passed through. Areas S of the warm front are most at risk for wind gusts of 40-50 MPH next couple of hrs, and there has even been a recent 59 MPH gust from KU Mesonet in Mitchell Co. Three main concerns for the evening: 1) ongoing extreme fire conditions (discussed below) 2) narrow window for strong (maybe one or two severe?) and 3) strong winds with cold front. The narrow window for strong storms will be across areas N and E of the Tri-Cities...S of the warm front and E of the dry line. It appears the primary moisture axis has been shunted E/SE of the forecast area...and think this will be the main area of concern. Recent SPC MCD covers this well. However, recent satellite and radar trends suggest a secondary area of potential development to the N/NE of triple point. Have seen incr ltng strikes in this area, and recent HRRR runs have hinted at development near ODX. Can`t rule out strong or marginally severe storm simply because of the very steep lapse rates, strong shear, and strong ambient winds. If this were to occur, it would be between 5-10PM (10PM probably on the safe side). The main limited factor, however, will be limited instability as MUCAPEs look to remain less than 500 J/kg. This general area, overall, will also have best chcs for stratiform shwrs later this eve/tonight. A strong cold front will quickly accelerate SE across the Plains as the sfc low continues to lift NE. Winds along and behind the front will be strong...sustained 25-30 MPH, gusting 40-50 MPH. Expect the passage to be between 01Z to 06Z. Decr PoPs late overnight as models have really decr the organization of deformation/wrap around pcpn. In fact, may be completely dry by 09Z per latest HRRR and remain that way for all but the far SE through early aftn. Somewhat better chcs for rain/snow shwrs will come with lobes of vorticity wrapping around the parent upper cycle Wed aftn into Wed night. Both lift and moisture are somewhat lacking, so don`t think this will turn into a big deal. Winds will still be elevated, but not as strong as today/Wed AM, and warm ground temps will retard snow accums given overall lgt rates. The rest of the forecast will feature mainly near-normal temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Thu will still have a bit of a chilly NW breeze, but at least it`ll be sunny. The upper flow will turn zonal by late week and continue through the weekend and feature a series of weak, progressive shortwaves. The first wave will swing through on Fri, bringing mainly lgt rain, perhaps mixed with some wet snow. Daytime timing would argue against a changeover. Another wave is expected towards Sunday, but precip signal is not great. Perhaps a stronger wave towards Tue, but confidence on details is not great attm. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday) Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Cold front swings through tonight with wind turning to the northwest. Ceilings becoming MVFR overnight. Could be close to LLWS at KGRI for the first couple of hours near 2K near 45 KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 445 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Extreme fire conditions will continue for another couple of hrs late this afternoon and early evening due to S-SW wind gusts 35-45 MPH, perhaps as high as 50-55 MPH in isolated spots, and RHs in the teens to low 20s. The ongoing RFW may be a bit of a stretch along I-80, but definitely don`t feel comfortable cancelling any zones at this time. Winds are beginning to veer to the W behind the dry line from around EAR to RSL. Once winds turn to the W they stay that way until a cold front arrives, generally after sunset. Any fires that maintain after sunset will be impacted by strong cold front passage between 01Z to 06Z, which will result in wind shift to NW/NNW and wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH. Cold air advection will aid in RH recovery, at least. Strong winds will continue into Wed, but RHs should remain above 30 percent in most areas. Near critical fire conditions are possible Thu aftn. RHs will easily fall into 20 to 25 percent range, esp. W of Hwy 281, but this is also where winds should be lightest, with gusts near or less than 20 MPH. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ062>064- 075>077-084>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ UPDATE...Heinlein DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Heinlein FIRE WEATHER...Thies
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1115 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 1109 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 It seems to me our forecast is largely on track. We are seeing narrow "FGEN" like bands of showers on our radar and within the past 30 minutes or so we have been getting some reports of sleet (like at our office) and at Battle Creek from a spotter. I expect the area of precipitation to greatly expand over the next few hours. The area with more than a .25 inches of precipitation by 8 am should mostly be north of a line from Hart to Lansing. The area near Route 10 already had air temperatures near freezing. It is that area that should get the greatest amounts of freezing rain. Really no significant change in our forecast is expected overnight. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 -- Sleet and Freezing Rain tonight -- A wintry mix of precipitation will develop this evening over portions of Southwest Lower Michigan continuing into Wednesday morning over Central Lower Michigan. No changes were made to Winter Weather Advisory across the WFO GRR forecast area. At the onset this evening between roughly 9 PM and 10 PM sleet will be the predominant precipitation type quickly switching over to freezing rain. Freezing rain should be the main precipitation type in the advisory area between 10 PM and 500 AM. Warm air will continue to push into the area tonight and by daybreak on Wednesday much of the area will have switched over to rain with readings rising above the freezing mark. The last area to switch over will be Central Lower Michigan which should rise above freezing by noon on Wednesday. Areas to the south and west of Grand Rapids will see little to no icing from this event. The area that will see the most icing will be across Central Lower Michigan where up to a quarter of an inch of icing is possible. Lake, Osceola, Clare, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isabella, Montcalm and Gratiot counties will see the most icing with lesser amounts as you head south and west of these areas. The greatest impact from this event will be some icy roads overnight into the Wednesday morning commute. Also we cannot rule out some scattered power outages across Central Lower Michigan. The mitigating factor to this event will be the surge of warm air that rolls in on south winds on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will range from near 60F across Southern Lower Michigan to the 40s over interior Central Lower Michigan so the ice will melt/shed quickly. -- Periods of Rain and a Few Thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night -- We are still expecting a good round of rain beginning tonight and lasting through the day on Wednesday into Wednesday night. The heaviest rain will be for areas north and west of Grand Rapids through this event across West Central Lower Michigan. WPC continues to indicate that 1-2 inches of rain is possible across river basis across Central Lower Michigan. Our lowest river levels are currently in this area. Higher river levels are in place towards I-94 and the upper reaches of the Grand and the Kalamazoo basins. Thankfully, lesser amounts are expected in these areas, generally an inch or less. As for thunderstorms, the message remains the same with limited instability due to poor mid level lapse rates. We have a chance for thunder from late tonight into Wednesday night. At this time we agree with the SPC forecast of General Thunder. Any stronger cells that manage to organize will need to be monitored for wind however, given the 50-60 knots of wind in the 2k to 5k layer. -- Limited weather concerns beyond the mid week system -- There will be some wrap around light snow and lake effect Thursday into Thursday night, but not expecting this to amount to much. It will be blustery on Thursday during the morning. Two weak clipper systems are forecast, one over the weekend and one early next week. Both systems look to be rather weak and should not bring much in the way of impacts. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 753 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 VFR early, then rain and or freezing rain in the 03z-06z time frame, mostly rain after 06z. MVFR conditions should be slow to develop but should set in between 06z and 09z as rain continues to fall into the dry air and saturates it. There will likely be a break in rain from mid morning into late afternoon. At that point the cold front convection starts moving in. The MVFR conditions may lift during the midday hours if we get deep enough into the warm air behind the warm front. They will return by evening as the cold front precipitation area moves through this area. It will be very windy tonight and Wednesday. Currently we have solid VFR at all of our TAF sites and it would seem to me we will continue to see solid VFR till around 03z or so. There is no rain actually headed this way at this time (23z). We expect rain to develop overhead early tonight. That is thanks to a strong warm front heading toward Lower Michigan. However the air in front of the warm front is very dry. The air being lifted over the warm front is very moist, being from the Gulf of Mexico. It stands to reason at some point rain will develop over Southwest Lower Michigan as the mid- level air saturates. Just about all of our HI-RES models suggest this should happen in the 02z to 04z time frame. There is some threat, if the precipitation begins around 03z, it could be a mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain or rain, more so in the LAN area than the other TAF sites. I did not put freezing rain in GRR`s TAF but it is really possible GRR could see as much as 3 hours of freezing rain (03z-06z). The question is how quickly the warm air reaches this area to mitigate the wet bulb cooling impacts. Seems the I-94 TAFS would be close enough to the warm air to have less of an impact (JXN /GRR is on the south edge of the area that could see some freezing rain). We will be watching this closely through. Some thunderstorms are possible with the cold front but at this point the risk seemed to low to put in our TAFs yet. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 We will continue with the headlines (Small Craft Advisory) we have at this point with the caveat that we may need to upgrade to a Gale Warning as we go forward. Solid SCA conditions look to prevail tonight and into Wednesday morning with strong southeast winds of 15 to 30 knots. We could even flirt with gale conditions tonight as the off shore winds in the nearshore zone nudge up towards 35 knots at times in the HRRR guidance. Where we may need to upgrade to a Gale Warning is from around 2 PM on Wednesday through 8 AM on Thursday. During this time frame BUFKIT overviews show 40+ knots in the mixed layer. The strongest winds will likely occur during the time of deepest mixing which is near the cold front Wednesday night. The overview at MKG shows 50 knots in the mixed layer Wednesday evening. Waves will increase Wednesday night in strong south to southwest flow. So areas north up the shore from Holland will see the largest waves in this event. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ050- 056>058-065>067-074. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for MIZ037>040- 043>046-051-052-059. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...WDM MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1129 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 959 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 No major changes needed to the forecast with conditions generally evolving as expected. One minor adjustment was to slightly decrease the dewpoints through 06Z as the WAA and influx of moist air has been a bit slower than initially expected. Overall rain coverage continues to decrease, so capped POPs to no higher than 20 to remove any scattered mention. A non-diurnal temperature curve is anticipated through the night with the overnight lows already having occurred across central Indiana as a result of the incoming warm air. && .Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Highlights... * Strong southerly winds gusting as high as 50 mph tomorrow * Thunderstorms with damaging winds possible Wednesday afternoon and evening * Elevated fire weather risk tomorrow given high winds and low RH Rest of Today and Tonight... The beginning of the short term should be rather mundane as a warm front slowly lifts north ahead of a developing low. Moisture levels remain low at the surface, although the mid levels remain nearly saturated. Marginal lift along the front has lead to some precip development of light bands, although most of the rain is evaporating prior to reaching the surface. Rain could reach the ground at a faster rate later this evening into tonight over northern central Indiana, as the cloud deck depresses. Total QPF during this period will be less than a tenth. Temperatures wont follow a typical diurnal curve as strong WAA and deep cloud cover inhibit cooling overnight. Still, some evaporative cooling beneath scattered rain showers to the north should drop temperatures slightly over north central IN. Expect temperatures in the low 40s over this region with upper 40s elsewhere. Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night... Wednesday`s weather will be much more volatile with 30+ degree temperature gains, high winds and even a severe weather threat in the evening. The aforementioned low, will continue to deepen as it heads west; embedded in strong upstream flow and a phased upper level trough. The upper level system will ingest another vort max over the upper Rockies, eventually pushing down stream into a negatively tilted shortwave. This will lower heights rapidly out ahead of this system, developing a strong LLJ during the day Wednesday. Simultaneously, a subsidence induced dry layer will progress northward over the Tennessee Valley reaching Indiana late tomorrow morning. As this layer moves northward, mixing will allows for the dry air to reach the surface. In combination with strong WAA, the PBL will expand rapidly, reaching 1500m by tomorrow afternoon. This will create ideal conditions for high wind gusts as the turbulence increases in the PBL mixing the strong LLJ to the surface. Current expectation are for sustained winds between 20-25mph with gusts upwards of 50MPH tomorrow afternoon. The combination of high winds and a drying surface layer will create an elevated fire risk during the afternoon. See the Fire Section for more details. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will also increase rapidly due to the dry air mixing and strong WAA. The low surface dew points should allow for near dry adiabatic warming within the PBL, pushing temperatures into the upper 70s. Main inhibiting factor will be cloud cover, but the dry air mixing and WAA should overcome the lack of incoming solar radiation. Thunderstorm threat: A cold front will develop along a strong confluent zone south of the surface low during the day on Wednesday. Moisture should collect within the convergence enhancing dew points along the front. However, with dry air mixing to the surface in the warm sector, this elevated moisture could have a difficult time progressing eastward even with strong lift along the boundary. Surface lapse rates are high given near dry adiabatic PBL, but with dry air, LCLs will be too high to tap into this buoyant energy. In the mid to upper levels lapse rates are much lower at around 6C/km. The lack of moisture in the warm sector, any thunderstorm development will be confined to along the front. Some moisture aloft will lead to cloud cover and a stray shower could reach the surface but should be very isolated. The severe threat in the evening is possible given the intense LLJ near the boundary. Models are widely varied on how far east the surface moisture moves along the front, and will play a large role in how far east the surface based convection will get. Any surface based convection will have a high chance of tapping into the LLJ. Directional shear will weaken as the evening progresses and the low level winds become more southerly. Still, bulk shear should be sufficient for RIJ development in any organized surface based line. However, surface based convection looks unlikely to reach central Indiana at this time (leading to the slight risk over the far SW and marginal elsewhere). Even in the elevated showers/thunderstorms, a rogue high wind gust is possible as rain cooled air allows for surface mixing. && .Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 The low pressure system will be exiting off to the NW at the beginning of the period. Moisture on the backside of the low will continue chances for light rain through the day Thursday. Pressure gradients aloft will continue to be tight through the day Thursday which will keep sustained winds around 15 to 20 kts and gusts potentially up to 30 kts. These are expected to drop off after sunset as mixing decreases and the low pushes further away. Temperatures will be cooler behind the associated cold front but will gradually trend warmer, eventually becoming near normal, throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure and subsidence will provide drier and quiet weather for the end of the work week. From Saturday into early next week, models are hinting at the potential for a couple of short waves that could bring additional rounds of rain with a day or so break between the rounds. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1128 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 IMPACTS: -Wind shift from 110 to 180 around 12Z. -Wind gusts to 40kts, strongest around 18Z. -LLWS from 03Z to 15Z. -MVFR vsbys/cigs after 22Z with SHRA possible TSRA. DISCUSSION: Winds will continue to increase ahead of a strong LLJ that will lead to a 40kt wind difference between the surface and 020 causing LLWS. Wind direction will gradually shift near 12Z from the east to the south with wind speeds picking up rapidly after 12Z. As surface wind speeds increase, the LLWS concern will taper. An incoming cold front will bring MVFR cigs/vsbys after 23Z with brief IFR vsbys possible during heavier rain. A few rumbles of thunder are likely with the passing rain but not confident enough in coverage to go any higher than VCTS at this time. There may be additional LLWS tomorrow night, but the wind difference is much lower as the LLJ weakens. && .Fire Weather... ...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW... Will have to watch out for potential wildfires over central Indiana tomorrow afternoon. Fuel levels will be marginal with dew points dropping as dry air mixes to the surface. Have blended RAP and ARW with the NBM to get proper dew point expectations for tomorrow. RH values will bottom out in the 30s. Winds tomorrow will also be strong within a turbulent boundary layer. Expect sustained winds between 20-30MPH with gusts upwards of 50MPH. Use caution if burning tomorrow. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for INZ021- 028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ Update...White/Melo Short Term...Updike Long Term...KH Aviation...White/Melo Fire Weather...Updike
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1022 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1016 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 KLNX radar indicates a 50kt barrier jet has developed at the lowest gate leading to gusts to around 50 mph at the sfc. The RAP model soundings and h850-700mb winds show this jet lasting through the night. A forecast update is in place for this feature using the short term model blend, the HRRR and RAP model wind gusts. UPDATE Issued at 949 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Significant snow is accumulating on the roads across parts of wrn Nebraska and temperatures have fallen below freezing. A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect until 8 am MDT, generally along highway 61 north of Ogallala and highway 20 west of Valentine. UPDATE Issued at 829 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 A forecast update is place for snowfall amounts of up to 2 inches across the Sandhills. The forecast leans on the RAP, HRRR and short term model blend. UPDATE Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 A forecast update is in place for additional thunderstorm coverage across ncntl Nebraska this evening. The update is based on current radar and lightning trends. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 A cold front moved through western and north central Nebraska today. Some thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in north central Nebraska this evening. Any storms that do form should be elevated due to decent mid level lapse rates. Dry air at the surface may limit the amount of precipitation that reaches the ground, resulting in virga instead. Dry lightning could become a threat, especially with the dry conditions on the ground in surrounding areas. Cooler air within the storms means that hail is possible, but it should stay subsevere. The potential for stronger thunderstorms depends on whether 700 mb frontogenesis advances far enough east into areas of better atmospheric moisture before the moisture exits to the east. The front and associated surface low will continue to slide east this afternoon and evening, creating a tight pressure gradient between the low in the east and high pressure along the Front Ranges of Wyoming and Colorado. Strong winds are expected in the postfrontal environment. It appears that the time for greatest winds will be overnight, continuing into Wednesday morning. Current guidance is suggesting gusts as high as 50 mph. However, confidence in strong winds has decreased since this is occurring at night. Mixing to the surface will be limited. Strong winds will also assist decent cold air advection into the area from the northwest. Combined with low temperatures on Wednesday morning in the 20s, unseasonably cold wind chills in the single digits to low teens are possible across much of the area. Temperatures will also be unseasonably cold during the day on Wednesday, around 20 degrees below normal. Light precipitation is expected to continue this evening and through tomorrow. As cold air advection intensifies overnight, the rain will gradually transition to snow. Confidence is low in significant snow accumulation as the precipitation should remain light and ground temperatures are warm enough to melt snow. A secondary upper level low will move into Nebraska from the north tomorrow morning which should provide enough lift for additional light snow in northern Nebraska during the day. It will be showery in nature and as temperatures increase during the day to above freezing, it will likely transition to a rain snow mix or snow pellets. Additional accumulation should be limited. By tomorrow night, all precipitation should move to the east of the forecast area. The highest totals will be near the South Dakota state line, between 1 and 2 inches at most. Other areas to the south will get less than an inch. Localized areas of blowing snow are possible given the strong winds overnight and tomorrow morning, but it should be limited due to the lack of widespread accumulating snow. That being said, quick reductions in visibility will be hazardous. Skies will gradually clear out on Wednesday night, and with decent radiational cooling and northwesterly winds lows will cool into the low 20s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Quiet weather is expected on Thursday with seasonal temperatures. The next possibility for precipitation will be on Friday and Friday night as an upper level trough moves through the Great Plains. It also appears to begin as snow, transition to rain as temperatures increase on Friday, then turn to snow late Friday night. Afterwards, a zonal pattern develops aloft over Nebraska and southerly flow returns at the surface, assisting in WAA. Temperatures rise to the 60s, which is slightly above normal this time of year. Another opportunity for precipitation arrives early next week as an upper level low moves into the northern Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening across portions of central Nebraska into far north central Nebraska. Across western Nebraska light rainfall will continue to spread eastward and change over to snow during the overnight. MVFR conditions will be possible as cigs lower this evening and visbys may lower with light to moderate snowfall, especially across the northern and western Sandhills. Winds will also remain quite gusty overnight with gust of 35 kts or greater possible. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for NEZ004-023-024-035-057-094. && $$ UPDATE...CDC SHORT TERM...Meltzer LONG TERM...Meltzer AVIATION...Gomez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
924 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 .UPDATE... Evening guidance still points to a line of strong to severe storms moving into the area late Wednesday morning into the evening hours. Damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms. Tornadoes will also be possible. Storms should exit the area Wednesday evening. Have made slight adjustments to the forecast, but otherwise no major changes were made. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022/ DISCUSSION... Strong environmental winds and strong to severe storms appear on track to arrive in the Midsouth on Wednesday. Guidance across the range of medium range models to short term convection-allowing models (CAMs) has remained consistent in depictions of very high environmental wind shear, coupled with marginal instability. Tight guidance consensus aside, the most challenging severe weather parameter to forecast remains instability. Surface dewpoints have reached 60F along and west of the MS River this afternoon. These dewpoints may warm a few degrees further overnight and expand east of the MS River. Following sunrise Wednesday, HRRR soundings depict modest cooling of surface dewpoints, likely from the mixing of drier air in the top of the deepening mixed layer. This may be offset by moisture pooling near the advancing updraft/downdraft convergence zone. In any case, 18Z HRRR depicted mixed-layer CAPE was at or below 600 J/kg Wednesday afternoon. 12Z HREF ensemble mean wasn`t not far off, depicting mixed layer CAPE of 500-750 J/kg, mainly over north MS. 0-3km SRH of 600-700 m2/s2 will be aided by 850mb winds nearing 80KT at 21Z along the MS River. These winds will be from the SSW, roughly parallel to the squall line. While serving to elongate hodographs, deep updraft maintenance may become a challenge if adequate instability doesn`t materialize. If QLCS segments manage to bow, some of stronger winds aloft may descend in the northern half of bowing segments. 18Z HRRR depicts little bowing potential, but perhaps more concerning, some discrete cells over northeast MS, in advance of the QLCS. Proceeding storms, environmental winds in the mixed layer will be supportive of gusts to 50 mph - sufficient to cause sporadic power outages. The squall line should exit to middle TN by late afternoon/early evening, leaving wrap-around showers across the Midsouth. Thereafter, cooler and dry through Friday, following the passage of a secondary upper trof on Thursday. A few showers can`t be ruled on Saturday, with the passage of phased upper lows through the middle and upper MS River valleys. Rain amounts should be on the light side, especially south of I-40. Next chance of thunderstorms appears next Tuesday, ahead of a southern branch trof. PWB AVIATION... 00Z TAF cycle VFR conditions will continue through at least late Wednesday morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to move across the Mid-South from west to east Wednesday afternoon. Some IFR ceilings will be possible when the thunderstorms move through. Winds will be mainly from the south at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts tonight increasing to 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts on Wednesday. ARS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Clay-Craighead- Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips- Poinsett-St. Francis. MO...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Dunklin- Pemiscot. MS...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha. TN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Benton TN- Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson- Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale- Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1058 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 .UPDATE... A quiet night ahead for the most part for east-central Florida as high pressure continues to slide eastward over the western Atlantic and to the east-northeast of Florida. However, many updates were need for this evening with confidence increasing on wind gusts reaching Gale Warning Criteria by Wednesday night into Thursday morning ahead of a strong approaching frontal system. Also, interestingly enough, temperatures have been sort of a challenge with some locations already near their expected low temperature for Wednesday morning, mainly near the Treasure Coast and south of Vero where dew points are a few degrees lower than anticipated. Therefore, some tweaks were made to temperatures and dew-points to better align with current analysis with values on pace to drop lower than guidance indicates, especially south and west of Vero. Lows will reach the mid 50s to low 60s tonight with patchy fog possible, mainly over the interior. Additionally, confidence is increasing that we will see some pretty gusty winds by Thursday morning over the offshore waters. Guidance has been too low with wind speeds/gusts recently, especially on days with strong WAA. Models seem to be struggling with the increased thermal gradient on strong WAA days which has been leading to higher than forecast wind speeds on most, if not all, strong WAA days recently. Furthermore, the NAEFS ensembles indicate some impressive values for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with WSP values and the mean meridional wind in the 99th to max percentile range over Florida, in addition to, a return interval of 1 day every 10 to even 30+ year range. Given the fact that we will also have a 35-50kt LLJ during the period, would think frequent gusts of 35kts+ is likely. .MARINE... Winds will continue to veer to the south-southeast into Wednesday with winds increasing ahead of a strong frontal boundary which will reach east-central Florida by the end of the workweek. Expect winds around 15 to 20kts by Wednesday afternoon nearshore and up to 25kts offshore. Wind gusts will increase to around 35 to 40kts by Wednesday night over the offshore waters (20-60nm). SCA in effect Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with the offshore waters becoming more hazardous by Wednesday evening, prompting a Gale Watch for the offshore waters. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022/ Current-Tonight...A little warmer and gradually increasing moisture across ECFL this afternoon. The sea breeze has developed and is moving inland. Northerly winds will veer onshore thru the remainder of the day as this feature pushes deeper into the interior. Max temps will reach the M-U 80s interior, holding in the L80s at the coast. High pressure emerges over the western Atlc tonight as winds continue to veer to ESE/SE areawide. This will keep temps milder overnight, holding in the L-M 60s, except U60s along the immediate coast. Some normally cooler rural locations across the interior may realize U50s for mins. The increased SE boundary layer flow would normally limit fog formation for most (possibly in favor of low stratus clouds), though the local HRRR is adamant in developing some fog and due to low confidence have gone ahead and included some patchy fog wording in the grids/zones. Should any develop the favored areas would be across the interior, away from the coast. Wed...High pressure just off of the eastern Florida coast by daybreak will drift further eastward into the Atlantic, ahead of an approaching cold front. A tightening pressure gradient between the two features will lead to breezy to windy conditions. SE/S winds will be 15-20 mph and even up to 20-25 mph along the coast, with frequent higher gusts. A Wind Advisory may need to be entertained for the Space/Treasure coasts. No precipitation is expected. However, moisture advecting into the region ushered along by southerly flow will cause values to slowly increase. Though a word of caution...deeper diurnal mixing could offset the moisture return. A warming trend continues, with temperatures reaching the U80s to near 90 inland, with L80s along the coast. Wednesday Night-Thursday (Modified Previous Discussion)...High pressure will continue to drift further eastward into the Atlantic, ahead of an approaching cold front. A tightening pressure gradient between the two features will lead to breezy to windy conditions through Thursday. SE/S winds veering SW into Thursday afternoon will be 15-20 mph, up to 20-25 mph along the coast, with higher gusts. No precipitation is expected through much of the day on Thursday. However, moisture advecting into the region ushered along by southerly flow will increase PWATs to around 1-1.15", so we could see a few showers and storms ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. PoPs 20% north of Highway 60 and 30-40% north of Interstate 4. Thursday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as temperatures soar to the lower 90s across the interior and increasingly SW flow leads to the upper 80s even along the coast. At this time, the record that appears closest to being threatened is at Leesburg, where the forecast high is currently 89 (the record is 88 set in 2021). Morning lows also warming, remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s each day. Thursday Night-Friday (Modified Previous Discussion)...As a trough digs into the Ohio Valley Thursday night, it will drag a surface cold front into the local area, producing scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms (PoPs 30-50% across the south and 50-70% to the north). Shower and storm chances continue to increase into the day on Friday, as the front slows and eventually stalls across central Florida. PoPs 60-80% area wide expected, with PWATs approaching 2". Temperatures are forecast to cool north of the stalled front (Melbourne/Kissimmee northward), with highs in the low to mid-80s there. However, areas along and inland from the Treasure Coast could remain in the mid to upper 80s. Morning lows in the mid to upper 60s. The Weekend-Monday (Modified Previous Discussion)...An unsettled weather pattern looks to continue into early next week, as higher moisture lingers across the region. Models continue to support the stalled front lifting northward as a warm front on Saturday, with zonal flow developing aloft. This looks to continue through the next several days, as a series of troughs and/or shortwaves traverse the eastern US. Thus, scattered to numerous shower and storm chances look to persist through Monday, though confidence decreases through the period, as models begin to diverge on solutions, namely a shortwave over the GOMEX late weekend. Nonetheless, have maintained PoPs 40-70%. Temperatures are forecast to remain similar to Friday, with mid 80s north of Melbourne/Kissimmee and upper 80s to the south. Lows in the mid to upper 60s Saturday and Sunday mornings, with low to mid 60s Monday morning. && .AVIATION... Light NW-N winds are gradually transitioning to NE-E along the coast this aftn with speeds 5-10 knots. Winds continue to veer SE tonight holding at 5-10 knots at coastal terminals, a little lighter interior. Boundary layer flow stronger SERLY tonight which would favor stratus over fog, though the local HRRR still touts some fog development. Confidence too low for inclusion into TAFs, but future shifts will need to monitor TAFs for late overnight into early Wed morning. As for Wed, the pressure gradient tightens and gusty SE winds are forecast up to 15 kts interior and near 20 kts at the coast; all with frequent higher gusts. && .MARINE... Afternoon-Tonight...Weak high pressure areas will consolidate off of the Carolina coast and begin to push seaward overnight. This will provide an onshore flow this afternoon with winds veering more ESE/SE this evening and overnight. Current speeds of 6-12 kts will increase to 12-16 kts tonight as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching, slow-moving, cold front. Seas 2 ft with 3 ft offshore building to 3 ft tonight with 4 ft offshore Volusia and Brevard. Wed...A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the western Atlantic and an approaching cold front will lead to windy conditions across the local waters. SE winds will increase further to around 20kts with frequent higher gusts during the day. At least Cautionary Statements will be necessary for the winds with marginal SCA conditions that will need to be looked at. Seas 3-4 ft building to 4-5 ft, possibly up to 6 ft well offshore (Brevard/Volusia) by late in the day. Conditions will remain dry. Wednesday Night-The Weekend...A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the western Atlantic and an approaching cold front will lead to windy conditions across the local waters. SE winds Wednesday evening veering S, then SW Thursday night. Speeds increasing to 20-25 kts Wednesday night and persisting through sunset on Thursday before beginning to diminish. Thus, boating conditions will be poor to hazardous and eventual advisories will likely be needed. In addition to the wind, the approaching front will lead to increasing shower and storm chances Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours. Seas 4-6 ft building to 5-7 ft offshore Thursday morning. Boating conditions look to improve into the weekend as winds and seas diminish. However, higher shower and storm chances are expected to linger into early next week. && .FIRE.. Remainder of Afternoon...Ever so gradual modification of the current dry airmass continues, though min RHs will still fall into the mid-upper 20s/near 30 percent over the far interior (along Kissimmee River). A delayed onshore flow (sea breeze) along the coast has allowed for RHs to fall to around 40pct along the Space/Treasure coasts, but expect these RH values to pop back up to 50-60pct once the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. Winds will remain less than 15 mph. Wed...Min RHs continue to recover slowly, but will still drop into the M-U 30s, possibly L30s, through the far interior in the afternoon. In addition, winds are expected to increase to 15-20 mph (20-25 mph at the coast) with frequent higher gusts, as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching front. This will bring the western portions of the interior counties to near Red Flag criteria, as ERCs remain high. Prescribed burning on this day will be discouraged as fuels continue to dry. Thursday...Minimum RHs will be just above critical values, in the upper 30s, through parts of the interior. Winds 15-20 mph inland and 20-25 mph along the coast will continue Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 63 83 68 89 / 0 0 0 40 MCO 63 89 68 92 / 0 0 0 30 MLB 65 82 70 87 / 0 0 0 20 VRB 64 83 69 88 / 0 0 0 20 LEE 63 88 68 89 / 0 0 0 40 SFB 61 87 67 90 / 0 0 0 30 ORL 64 89 70 92 / 0 0 0 30 FPR 61 83 69 88 / 0 0 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fehling LONG TERM....Rodriguez AVIATION...Fehling
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
958 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Very warm evening across Middle Tennessee with current readings in the 60s with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. With LLJ increasing to 40 knots overnight, temperatures are not expected to drop much with lows only falling into the mid 50s to low 60s. Looking at the latest 00Z guidance for tomorrow including the HRRR and NAM, not much has changed from previous forecasts. Southerly low level jet will continue to increase through the day as upper trough approaches from the west, with guidance showing 50+ kts at just 1k ft agl. With bulk of precip and clouds holding off until late afternoon and ample heating/mixing during the day, these winds are expected to easily mix down with surface winds gusting over 50 mph at times. These winds could easily knock down some trees and power lines across the area well before the line of storms arrives later in the day. Wind advisory remains in effect for the whole area. Speaking of heating, tomorrow looks like the warmest day so far this year with much of the cwa reaching the low to mid 80s. Record highs are very possible, with the record at BNA being 84 set in 1963 and CSV at 80 set in 1998. As far as the severe weather threat, models continue to depict an intense QLCS moving across Middle Tennessee roughly from 21Z at the Tennessee River to 04Z at the east edge of our Plateau counties. Low and deep layer wind shear is forecast to be extremely strong with 0-1km shear as high as 55 kts and 0-8km shear up to 100 kts. Main question continues to be how much instability we will see this far north. Most guidance keeps any appreciable MLCAPE along/west of I-24 and only around 100-400 J/Kg at that. Despite the meager instability, the strength of the upper trough and associated 115kt H5 jet streak, QLCS storm mode, and extreme shear indicate damaging winds will be a significant threat with the line of storms. Tornadoes are much more uncertain due to the low MLCAPE, but currently appears there may be just enough for a couple of tornadoes - mainly in our southwest counties south of I-40 and west of I-65. East of I-24, models are in agreement that there will be little or no CAPE, so I expect the line of storms to weaken as it moves further into the Upper Cumberland and onto the Plateau later in the evening. Previous forecast had all of this covered well, and only made minor adjustments to grids and zones. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Southerly winds will be on the increase through the upcoming taf period. As winds off the surface increase this evening, wind shear verbiage will be needed. Otherwise, mostly mid and high cloudiness through 18Z. Aft 18Z however, a frontal system will be on approach with lower level cu beginning to develop. A line of showers and tstms will likely reach the CKV are late in the period. Stronger winds can be expected just ahead of the approaching line of convection. By the tail end of the taf period...The strongest storms will most likely be just west of the BNA area. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT Thursday for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb- Dickson-Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson- Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry- Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner- Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ DISCUSSION......Shamburger AVIATION........21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
928 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 916 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Currently keeping a watchful eye on the strong/severe convection stretching from south central KS into northern OK (which is coincident with the main axis of surface-based instability). Instability drops off considerably to the east of this activity, so there is some question of storm strength over the next few hours as the convection nears portions of northeast OK. Of more concern may be the activity currently across parts of southwest OK into TX. HRRR has remained consistent in showing a modest increase in instability later tonight (generally after 07-08Z) across southeast OK into western/northwestern AR as low/mid 60s surface dewpoints surge north. Thus, expect this convection to continue to organize as it tracks east, with a band of storms eventually sweeping through the area later tonight into early Wednesday morning. Low-level helicity values will be maximized later tonight from southeast OK into western AR, likely increasing the QLCS tornado/damaging wind threat at least for a few hours. Have made ongoing tweaks to PoPs based on current radar trends. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Tonight`s strong to severe thunderstorms may linger into the daylight hours tomorrow morning, but they are expected to transition east of the area by mid to late morning. With the cold front still to our west tomorrow morning, another round of showers and thunderstorms may develop and sweep through the region during the day, although severe weather is not expected. Expect strong and gusty northwesterly winds to move in behind the front, in addition to falling temperatures. Current forecast wind gusts are right at Wind Advisory criteria for portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas but will let later shifts have another look at it, especially given the multiple watch/warning/advisory products we currently have out today. Temperatures behind the front for Wednesday night through Thursday night will be chillier than what we`ve seen the last few days. Things will warm up some for Friday, in advance of an upper level system that will move through late Friday and Friday night. Expect some showers and thunderstorms through early Saturday, with little to no severe weather threat. Much of the upcoming weekend should be fairly quiet, with temperatures just above normal and dry conditions. Another storm system early next week will bring more shower and thunderstorm chances, including some severe weather potential. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 VFR cigs will prevail tonight outside of expected storm activity. A cold front will bring MVFR cigs with it on Wednesday. Tempo groups were used to define the most likely time windows for convection at each site. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected briefly with the storms. Strong S winds will lessen late tonight before switching to NW Wednesday behind cold fropa. Gusts 25 to 35 kts possible outside of storms, with 40 to 50 kt gusts possible with the storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 54 64 35 59 / 90 50 0 0 FSM 58 69 38 59 / 90 90 0 0 MLC 56 69 38 60 / 100 40 0 0 BVO 51 60 33 57 / 90 70 0 0 FYV 56 66 32 55 / 100 90 0 0 BYV 56 66 36 52 / 90 100 0 0 MKO 56 67 35 56 / 100 60 0 0 MIO 54 63 33 52 / 100 80 0 0 F10 55 65 36 58 / 100 40 0 0 HHW 57 74 40 62 / 100 80 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...30