Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/29/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1000 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
Key Messages...
- Calm weather for the rest of today through tomorrow.
- A storm system will impact the area Tuesday night through
Thursday. Freezing rain and ice accumulation is expected Tuesday
night north of Interstate 94, which will impact the Wednesday
morning commute. Otherwise, precipitation type will vary
throughout the event between rain, snow, and a wintry mix. Some
thunderstorms and gusty winds are also possible with this storm.
Tonight and Tomorrow...
Conditions will remain pretty tranquil through most of Tuesday as
the large area of high pressure over the region today departs slowly
off to the east/southeast. The main concern is how quickly some
showers may start to break out Tuesday afternoon ahead of the
incoming storm system from the southwest. Almost all the hi-res
models are suggesting that all of Tuesday will be dry with the
shower development occurring during the evening. However, the RAP
has been showing some mid-level frontogenesis coming across in the
afternoon along with some isentropic up glide and moisture transport
into the area on the 290K surface. Based on this, will leave some
small rain chances in the forecast for Tuesday afternoon, but it
could end up being nothing more than some sprinkles.
Tuesday Night to Thursday...
Still looking at a spring system of mixed precipitation to impact
the area mid-week. A low pressure system will push into the area
Tuesday morning from the southwest, with the center of the low
centered right over the area late Tuesday night/early Wednesday
morning. GFS has the center of the low around 987 mb. As the closed
low moves in, the pressure gradient will tighten, heightening wind
speeds and increasing possible gust speeds.
Most models have the system`s associated precipitation beginning to
impact the area ahead of the low on late Tuesday afternoon or early
Tuesday evening. This widespread precipitation will stick around
until around Thursday night. Southwesterly moisture advection will
provide a hefty moisture source for this precip. GFS/European models
suggest about 0.8 to 1.1 inches of PWAT, with even higher amounts to
the southeast. These values are well above the area`s median average
(0.35 inches) for this time of year, according to the SPC Sounding
Climatology page. EPS models generally agree on precip continuing
throughout the day Wednesday, again with most members keeping the
precip in the area until later Thursday.
The more complicated part of this forecast lies in determining what
kind of precipitation we can expect. Overall, expect a wintry mix of
rain and snow, with some potential for freezing rain, especially in
northern parts of the CWA in central Wisconsin. Mainly rain is
expected Tuesday through Wednesday, with freezing rain in central
Wisconsin. This should then transition to all snow Wednesday night
as temperatures aloft dip and remain below freezing. A mix of rain
and snow is then expected for Thursday and Thursday night, depending
on the area`s temperatures aloft. This event, especially on Tuesday
and Wednesday, is of the low CAPE/high shear variety. Model
soundings show a skinny CAPE of 150-400 J/kg, particularly in NE
Iowa, with 0-6 km wind shear of 80-90 kts in much of the area.
Thunder is possible here, especially considering the stronger signal
for storms just to the south in Iowa. SPC`s Day 2 outlook currently
has a marginal just clipping a portion of NE Iowa in the CWA. Other
areas in Minnesota and Wisconsin also have some CAPE signal, so
thunder is possible there as well, as this could play out like a
convective storm at times, including strong wind gusts. Total snow
accumulation from this event is about 0.5-3 inches, with the higher
amounts in SE Minnesota and western/central Wisconsin.
Freezing rain in central Wisconsin will be the main threat to watch
out for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. NBM 4.1 models have
signaled this outcome for several days now, though the threat has
moved more northward during those runs. In more recent runs,
temperature spread in central Wisconsin has decreased and centers
right around 32 F. GEFS models have also continued this signal.
Nearly all members of the WPC Super Ensemble suggest at least some
accumulation of ice Tuesday night, with most members staying under
0.2 inches. Mean ice accumulation is about 0.11 inches. Higher
accumulations closer to or above 0.2 inches are not out of the
question, especially due to the convective nature of the event and
CAPE values in the area of about 250-300 J/kg. However, warmer air
should advect into the area Wednesday, warming surface temperatures
above freezing, and mitigating at least some of the icing impacts in
the afternoon. Due to the peak icing period being overnight, the
morning commute is likely to be impacted by icy roads. A Winter
Weather Advisory will likely be needed for this period. Unless the
convective nature of the rain does take over, ice accumulations of
0.25 inches warranting an Ice Storm Warning look less likely, but
will be something to keep an eye on as the event nears.
Friday to Sunday...
A bit calmer stretch of weather is expected over the weekend. Friday
should be dry, then followed by light snow and light rain impacting
the area Saturday. Highs will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s through
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
Cigs: bkn high/mid level clouds through Tue morning will start to
lower for the afternoon, with MVFR/IFR expected Tue evening. These
low cigs will likely hold across the TAF sites through Wed night.
WX/vsby: some hints in the models of weak isentropic upglide and a
bit of elevated frontogenesis that will sweep northeast across the
area Tue afternoon - potentially firing off some showers. Most meso
models favor dry at this time while bufkit soundings also showing a
robust dry sub cloud layer. Will keep shra out of the forecast for
now.
That said...widespread rain/showers is expected Tue night, with on
and off pcpn continuing through Wed. A threat for isolated thunder
Tue evening, with a swing to some snow Wed night into Thu. Expect
vsby impacts.
Winds: sfc pressure gradient tightening tonight and winds will be on
the increase - especially by early Tue morning. Sustained around 20
kts for KRST, with gusts around 30. Should stay southeasterly
through Tue night.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dahl/04
AVIATION.....Rieck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
941 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A deep trough over the eastern Great Lakes will shift east
tonight and Tuesday as high pressure slides into the Ohio
Valley. Strong low pressure developing in the Plains Tuesday
night will push a warm front across northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania by Wednesday morning. This low will lift through
the western and central Great Lakes Wednesday night and
Thursday pulling a strong cold front through the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Skies cleared out nicely as diurnal clouds and snow dissipated
over the last few hours. Exception is the band of clouds and
snow showers over northwest Pennsylvania at this time.
Expecting this activity to wane with time as high pressure
builds in from the west. Otherwise, clear skies elsewhere with
diminishing winds. Temperatures look reasonable with good
radiational cooling expected.
Previous Discussion...
Deep mid/upper troughing remains entrenched across the eastern CONUS
this afternoon, but it is beginning to slowly shift east as broad
upstream mid/upper ridging progresses through the Plains. Strong
1030 mb arctic high pressure moving into the western Great Lakes
this afternoon is beginning to feed drier air into the backside of
the mid/upper trough, so the lake-effect bands are finally beginning
to weaken as anticyclonic flow and drier air take hold. Regional
radar loops upstream show the connections to Lake Superior and Lake
Huron continuing but showing signs of weakening. Nevertheless,
expect widespread coverage of mainly nuisance snow showers to
persist through the evening in most of northern Ohio and NW PA, with
the greatest coverage in the highest peaks/favored upslope areas of
the primary and secondary snowbelts in 330-340 degree flow. This is
due to strong cold air advection of -18 C 850 mb temps over lake
waters in the upper 30s F leading to lake induced CAPES of 400-600
J/kg, inversion levels hovering around 6-7 thousand feet, and
equilibrium levels around 8-9 thousand feet. NAM and RAP BUFKIT
soundings show moisture and lift in the DGZ decreasing this evening
through tonight from west to east as the high builds in, so expect
the activity to gradually end from west to east late this evening
and early tonight. Kept chance PoPs from Ashtabula County east
through Erie and Crawford Counties in PA through the night since
moisture and inversion levels will take longer to decrease in that
area, along with a Lake Huron fetch. In terms of accumulations, the
bulk of that is over with just an additional trace to 0.5 inch over
north central and NE Ohio (highest in the peaks of the primary and
secondary snowbelts) and 1-2 inches in Ashtabula, Erie, and
Crawford Counties through tonight.
Winds will remain up in the 10-20 knot range with occasional gusts
over 25 knots late this afternoon, but these will decrease to 5-10
knots by tonight. The clearing skies and decreasing winds will lead
to a cold night, so used the colder CONSSHORT temps for lows which
yields around 20 in most areas with mid/upper teens from NE Ohio
through NW PA.
On Tuesday, the aforementioned mid/upper ridge over the Plains will
be forced east into the Midwest and western Great Lakes as a strong
trough amplifies into the western CONUS. This will lead to rising
heights across our region and the surface high becoming centered
over the Ohio Valley. Mostly sunny skies much of the day and
developing warm air advection aloft will boost highs into the
low/mid 40s in most areas except mid/upper 30s in NW PA. This is
still a solid 8 to 12 degrees below normal for late March, but it
will certainly feel better after the unseasonably cold weekend.
Moving into Tuesday night, the big trough out west will shift into
the Plains with the left exit of a 120+ knot H3 jet streak rounding
its base supporting strong surface cyclogenesis over the KS/MO/IA
vicinity. This will push a strong warm front northward across our
region late Tuesday night, with strong mid-level warm/moist
advection and resultant isentropic ascent leading to a band of mixed
precip. The latest NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings have given more
confidence to a period of light snow, sleet, and freezing rain as
the mid-level warm air overruns shallow cold air below 925 mb. The
question continues to be how soon will we saturate to allow precip
to reach the surface? The NAM holds onto the low-level dry air until
after about 08Z in most areas while the GFS scours it out about 2
hours earlier. Blended the latest NBM with the previous PoP forecast
which brings the best chances for a wintry mix into NW Ohio after
04Z, across north central and NE Ohio after 07Z, and into far
eastern Ohio and PA by 10Z. Any freezing rain or sleet will only
last 2 hours or less in any one place as the band shifts E/NE
through the region with ice amounts of a trace to 0.05 and snow
amounts of a trace to a few tenths. The cold air lingers the longest
over far NE Ohio and NW PA, so the highest amounts of snow and ice
in the above mentioned ranges will likely occur in these areas. A
changeover to rain will occur behind the warm front before the
precip ends. Will mentioned this in the HWO. Lows Tuesday night will
generally be in the upper 20s to low 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday, low pressure of around 980-990mb will be located along
the upper Mississippi Valley, with a warm front extending eastward
from northwest-southeast Ohio. This warm front will make east-
northeast progress through the day, located over western PA/NY by
mid afternoon. A band of showers is expected to accompany this warm
front as 925-850 frontogenesis and warm air advection loft provide
isentropic forcing for ascent. With the forcing located ahead of the
warm front, it`s likely showers will mainly occur during the morning
hours. Due to strong warm air aloft and coinciding cold temperatures
near the surface, we have introduced a chance of freezing rain with
the leading edge of precipitation. Freezing rain chances should be
limited to the morning hours.
Precipitation chances become nil by the afternoon hours behind the
warm front. With the frontal passage, southerly winds develop and
strengthen, quickly raising temperatures into the 60s areawide, and
perhaps even into the 70s for parts of northwest and central Ohio
(think southwest of a Toledo to Mount Vernon line). This will be
about 15 degrees above normal for this time of the year.
The aforementioned low pressure continues to make eastward
progression through the short term period, located along the
Ontario/Quebec border just northeast of Lake Huron by Thursday
afternoon. A strong pressure gradient may result in strong winds
Wednesday night, with model guidance suggesting wind gusts as high
as 30-35 knots for areas along and west of I-71. There almost could
be equally strong gusts in norther Erie, PA County due to
downsloping with southeast winds. A cold front extending from this
low is expected to be located across northwest or north-central Ohio
by late morning Thursday. Rain showers ahead of this cold front is
expected to impact the area Wednesday night through Thursday
evening. Some model guidance is suggesting the development of
instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon evening for
the far northeast Ohio and northwest Pennyslvania, which could
result in some thunderstorm development in these areas. With 50-60
knots of deep-layer shear, it may be possible that a storm or two
could become strong to severe. There is lot of uncertainty with
instability though and greatest chance for severe weather is likely
to be east of our forecast area.
Ensuing cold air advection will result in a drastic temperature drop
Thursday night with Thursday highs of upper 50s to mid 60s dropping
down to the mid 30s by late Thursday night into Friday morning.
Scattered showers linger into Thursday night due to wrap around
moisture and propagation of shortwave troughs within a broader upper-
level trough. Colder temperatures could result in some rain/snow
mix.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Broad upper-level trough with several shortwave troughs swirling
around will result in scattered showers throughout the day Friday,
with some lake enhancement adding to the potential in the snowbelt
areas. A rain/snow mix is expected. The back edge of the upper-level
trough exits the area to the east by 00Z Saturday, though some light
lake effect snow could ling into Friday evening for northwest
Pennsylvania. Surface high pressure builds across the area Friday
night through Saturday, allowing for relatively quiet weather
conditions during that time frame. A weak low pressure system is
expected to move across the area some time Saturday evening through
late Sunday morning. Saturday high temperatures are expected to be
in the upper 40s, potential evening low 50s, so precipitation type
expected to begin as rain. However, as the low passes to the south
across the Ohio Valley, it`s possible that cold air advection on the
northern end of this low may be enough for some wintry
precipitation, though it`s unlikely that there will be much
appreciable wintry precipitation. High pressure builds in for
Sunday/Monday, allowing for more mostly quiet weather.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Diurnal lake effect snow showers and clouds are gradually
dissipating with sunset. Expecting the activity to continue to
weaken with time as high pressure builds east into the area
overnight. Clearing skies will take place over the west with
lingering scattered clouds in the east by sunrise. Otherwise,
fair weather returns with VFR conditions for Tuesday. Winds are
also diminishing to light and variable across the area for the
overnight hours. As the high builds in, winds will shift around
to a south-southeast direction from a Cleveland to Mansfield
line west. Otherwise, northwest winds prevail east of that line.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible within rain/snow through Wednesday
morning. Non-VFR at times late Wednesday night through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have diminished over the lakeshore waters in Ohio so will
go ahead and drop the small craft advisory for these areas.
Winds of 20 to 25 knots still being reported along the lakeshore
of Pennsylvania up into New York and will hold on to advisory
for the time being.
Previous Discussion...
High pressure ridge works is way east across the Great Lakes this
evening into tonight. This will cause currently observed northwest
winds of 15-25 knots to gradually weaken from west to east. Waves
will follow a similar pattern with wave heights of 4-6 feet across
the central and eastern basins this morning, diminishing to 1-3 feet
by this evening. As waves dip below criteria, the Small Craft
Advisory will gradually go away.
Conditions will become quite pleasant across the lake Tuesday into
Tuesday evening, before winds begin to again increase, this time
from the southeast at 10-15 knots ahead of an approaching warm
front. These winds will become southerly and strengthen behind the
departing warm front on Wednesday and Wednesday night as low
pressure approaches the region from the southwest, becoming 20-25
knots across the entire lake by Wednesday night. With offshore flow,
expect the largest waves to remain along the northern portion of the
Lake, although another Small Craft will likely be needed to account
for the strong winds. Winds behind the departing cold front on
Thursday into Friday will persist at 20-25 knots, but now from the
west. Westerly winds of near 20 knots likely to persist through
Friday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Saunders
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1150 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected overnight through much of the day
Tuesday as high pressure expands across the area from the west.
Light northwest flow will become southeast Tuesday as the center of
this high progresses to the east. Increasing elevated moisture/lift
in advance of low pressure over the central CONUS will then bring an
increasing chance for a wintry mix over the area by the end of the
forecast period...generally after 03z-04z Tuesday night.
For DTW...The chance of light wintry mix will increase late in the
forecast with a gradually transition to rain as temperatures edge
above freezing at the surface overnight Tuesday night. Otherwise,
VFR with light winds overnight into Tuesday.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Medium in a light wintry mix of sleet/freezing rain developing in
the 03z-07z time frame Tuesday night.
* Medium for ceilings aob 5kft overnight Tuesday night.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022
DISCUSSION...
Extremely dry airmass in place, as the 12z DTX sounding indicated a
PW value of 0.08 inches, a daily record low value as a strong upper
level PV anomaly exits east through Pennsylvania. Highly confluent
upper level northwest flow will allow for high pressure (1029-1030
MB) to track through the Central Great Lakes tonight and through the
eastern Great Lakes tomorrow. Favorable radiating night to result in
min temperatures mostly in the teens. Although, with the current
dew pts in single numbers, the coldest spots will probably sneak
into the single numbers.
Upper level low/energy tracking through far southern California this
afternoon will be drawn northward as northern stream shortwave over
Western Canada digs southeast into Eastern Montana late Tuesday.
Excellent surge of moisture into southern Lower Michigan by
midnight, as PW values increase to around 1 inch Tuesday night,
ushered in by 60+ knot southwest jet at the 850 MB level over the
western Ohio Valley.
With the center of the high more or less due east or even southeast,
increasing southeast surface winds will provide a feed of low level
dry/cold air, but moist/warming mid levels in excess of 3 C in the
850-700 MB layer lifting through southeast Michigan 7-14z Wednesday
should assure complete melting of the hydrometers south of M-59 by
10z. The warm advection arm based off the RAP looks to persist the
longest along and north of I-69 where surface temperatures look to
hold below freezing for an extended period, resulting in ice
accumulations, but under quarter of an inch based on QPF of 3 tenths
of an inch or less.
Deepening of the low/cyclogensis to occur over the Great Lake Region
Wednesday evening/night as some phasing/merging of height falls
occurs. Moist warm conveyor belt and some modest instability will
promote showers and possible embedded thunderstorms with the cold
frontal passage. Cold advection to occur through Thursday night,
with 850 MB temps lowering into the negative mid single numbers in
the afternoon and -10 C or slightly colder by Friday morning, which
also looks to hold steady during Friday as well. Local probabilistic
guidance suggesting wind gusts around 40 MPH Thursday morning, which
certainly is in play if sub 980 MB low over the northern Great Lakes
materializes.
A trend toward a zonal pattern over the Weekend suggests
temperatures moderating, with the subtropical jet looking to be more
active along the Gulf Coast States.
MARINE...
Winds and waves will decrease through the evening and overnight as
an area of high pressure slides across the Great Lakes. Winds will
be light out of the north tonight before going calm early Tuesday
with the center of the high overhead. Winds will then flip around to
the southeast late in the day the high pushes off to the east and we
fall between the exiting ridge and the next strong low pressure
system approaching the western Great Lakes. The warm front will
swing up through the state Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing
widespread precipitation and elevated winds through the end of the
week.
HYDROLOGY...
A wintry mix of precipitation (mostly in the form of freezing rain)
will overspread southeast Michigan late Tuesday evening and continue
Tuesday night. Precipitation will change to rain early Wednesday
morning, with generally light off and on showers during the day
before a renewed round of widespread showers impacts the area
Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. Isolated thunderstorms are
also possible in this time period. Even so, total rainfall amounts
are generally expected to remain under 1 inch, with areas across the
Tri-Cities region having the best chance to reach near 1 inch.
Flooding is not anticipated, but river rises and standing water/
minor nuisance flooding in low lying areas can be expected.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....99
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....SF
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
.Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
No significant forecast concerns or weather impacts expected in
the short term period.
Warming trend continues as upper ridge builds into the area. Very
dry air still in place through tonight and early Tues, somewhat
reinforced with weak wedge front and Ely sfc winds. Return of low
level moisture from the south slow but steady Tues afternoon but
not soon enough to preclude another high fire danger day over east
central GA. Used blend of MAV/MET/ECS MOS with HRRR and HIRESWarw
for dewpoints. Winds will be about the same as today which were
weak enough to just preclude a Red Flag event. Will need to
monitor conditions closely. Used MAV/NBM/NBM90Pct for winds and
gusts. Fire Danger Statement will be issued later tonight after
current event ends.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Long term forecast concerns continue to be focused on midweek
system as occluded/cold frontal passage is progged to move through
the area. Extended models continue to be in good agreement with
overall timing and strength of short wave as it sweeps through the
state Wednesday night through Thursday. For now, modeled high
deep layer and low level shear is matched with extremely limited
MUCAPE, inhibiting severe potential. At this time it appears the
greatest threat for severe would be near onset Wednesday evening
as lingering daytime destabilization attempts to support incoming
convective line and then again on Thursday as the system exits the
southeastern CWA.
Forecast rainfall amounts continue to show around 1 to 1.5, with
higher amounts generally over central Georgia. Even with all/most
of this QPF expected in a 6-hr or less period, with the recent dry
weather, this should not require much in the way of flooding
concerns.
Warm afternoon temperatures are expected Wednesday ahead of the
front, but then trend back to near seasonal normals into the
weekend.
31/lgb
AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Cloud
cover has waned across north GA this evening, though mid-level and
upper-level clouds are expected to spread back in from the north
overnight. Have ATL going BKN060 at 09z and scattering out at 15z.
Will see a wind shift from NW to NE around 05z as surface high
pressure shifts eastward across the OH River Valley. Winds will be
5 kts or less overnight and will increase to 5-10 kts out of the
E to SE on Tuesday afternoon.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.
Martin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 44 68 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 47 73 52 81 / 0 0 0 5
Blairsville 38 63 45 72 / 5 0 0 5
Cartersville 43 74 52 81 / 0 0 0 10
Columbus 51 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 5
Gainesville 45 66 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 47 79 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 43 75 51 82 / 0 0 0 20
Peachtree City 46 76 54 83 / 0 0 0 5
Vidalia 49 79 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
908 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022
Updated forecast to include patchy fog across eastern portion of
CWA. Skies are remaining mostly clear in area with relatively
deeper moisture as per DDC sounding and RAP low level forecasts.
Potential for strong cooling and moisture pooling along convergent
zone bisecting the area will at least increase the threat for fog
enough to include in forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022
Across the Tri State area this afternoon, skies are a partly sunny
to sunny mix as high clouds filter thru the area. A stationary front
sits along the CO/KS border. This is allowing for southerly flow in
KS/NE which is gusty at times over 25 mph winds along the front in
Colorado are 10 mph or less. Temperatures range from the mid 70s
west over to the mid 60s east.
For the remainder of the afternoon, still looking for a few hours
over south/southwest zones of elevated to near critical conditions.
By sunset expecting RH values to increase as temps drop. Going into
tonight, expecting much of the area to remain on the warm side of
the front.
Some model discrepancies to the timing of the front thru the cwa,
which will impact chance for trw/rw over the area. Low moving along
the front will traverse southern zones, putting those locales under
elevated to near critical fire wx conditions for the afternoon hrs.
Worse conditions expected to remains south of the cwa, despite
seeing upper teens for rh and winds over 20 mph at times. No product
issued for fire wx. SPC does have much of KS/CO in elevate/critical
outlook.
What is expected to occur will be showers with the potential for
some thunderstorm activity. Drier air remains thru the early
afternoon, with wrap-around moisture triggering showers and
potential convection by late afternoon into the early evening. The
latest Day 2 convective outlook from SPC has general thunder for
much of the cwa, with a thin area of Marginal risk for areas east of
Highway 283. Main threat is hail. With airmass being so dry at the
potential onset, not looking for hail over an inch.
As the front/system traverse the cwa Tuesday night into Wednesday,
expecting colder air to infiltrate northern zones and wrap into the
rest of the cwa going into Wednesday morning. Low qpf is forecast,
but expect a changeover from rain showers to snow showers, with less
than an inch accum. Ground temps too warm to impact roadways, but
overpasses, bridges...etc could be impacted. Strong northerly flow
will also accompany the changeover with the potential for some
localized blowing snow. Strong winds persist into Wednesday when
gusts around 50 mph are possible, impacting travelers on area
roadways. Winds taper by the evening hours.
For temps, the passage of a front through the area will give a wide
range for highs Tuesday with upper 50s to lower 60s west thru the
70s in eastern zones. On Wednesday, mid 40s to lower 50s expected.
Overnight lows tonight will range from the upper 30s into the mid
40s. Cooling trend thereafter, with lows Tuesday night in the upper
20s to the mid 30s. And for Wednesday night, lower to mid 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022
The period will start under shortwave ridging on Thursday,
bringing dry conditions and temperatures back to near normal.
However, the next fast moving shortwave trough will approach from
the west and bring a chance for light rain and snow late Thursday
night through Friday night. QPF with this system appears it will
be fairly light, less than a tenth of an inch, and mainly in the
form of light rain showers, but cannot rule out a mix or change to
light snow Thursday night/Friday morning and again Friday night on
the back side as temperatures drop into the 30s. However, little,
if any, accumulation is expected. Friday may be breezy to windy
behind the cold front with current model forecasts of north winds
gusting to around 40 mph. Temperatures may be a little cooler than
currently forecast with the clouds and precipitation.
Upper flow over the weekend will be mostly zonal to slight
ridging. That will result in mostly sunny skies and temperatures
near to slightly above normal. Next trough in the progressive
pattern will dig into the Four Corners on Sunday and kick into the
plains Sunday night and Monday. It will bring another chance of
scattered light rain showers, or perhaps a few thunderstorms with
MUCAPE increasing during that time across primarily eastern part
of the forecast area. Temperatures on Monday will continue to be
slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 527 PM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022
VFR conditions will prevail at KGLD through at least 18z, with
potential for MVFR conditions increasing through the afternoon as
showers develop.
Forecast for MCK is somewhat more complicated as area of LLWS will
develop just above near surface inversion and persist into the
early morning hours. Additionally, potential exists for
development of low stratus or even fog between 10 and 15 UTC.
Currently appears low MVFR stratus the most likely scenario, but
will have to monitor area closely tonight.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1047 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
A major storm system crossing the region will bring a round of
significant precipitation to the area mid-week. Much of it could
be wintry, especially across the north. Some thunderstorms are
also possible, especially in central and east-central Wisconsin.
A progressive and very energetic southern stream of a split flow
regime will dominate the weather across the CONUS during the
period. A strong upper trough embedded within the southern stream
will bring significant precipitation to the area mid-week,
resulting in above normal amounts. Temperatures will vary between
modestly below and slightly above normal during the period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show arctic
high pressure centered across Wisconsin early this afternoon.
Clear skies prevail over the eastern half of the state, but mid
and high clouds are already approaching the Minnesota/Wisconsin
border along the leading edge of isentropic ascent well ahead of
the next system. However, very dry air as noted by dewpoints in
the 20s and 30s, exist into Oklahoma and Arkansas, so it`s
doubtful that radar returns over Iowa and Missouri are reaching
the ground. As the high departs and the next system moves closer
to the region, cloud trends and timing of precip are the main
forecast concerns.
Tonight...High pressure will remain present across the region this
evening before shifting to the eastern Great Lakes late. Westerly
winds aloft will be pushing the upstream mid and high level clouds
into the area, which will gradually lower through the night. A
wedge of dry air will remain below 750mb, so the chance of precip
will remain too low to mention. Low temps will likely occur by
late evening or early overnight before the thickening cloud cover
causes temps to stall or even rise some. Min temps will range
from the middle single digits near the U.P. border to the low 20s
over the Fox Valley.
Tuesday...Low level winds will shift to the southeast and become
breezy, as an influx of moisture in the 850-700mb layer surges
northeast into the region in the afternoon. With the thickening
cloud cover and onshore winds, temps will struggle to warm over
the Fox Valley and northeast WI, but should still see temps a
little warmer than today. Because the departing airmass is quite
dry, think models are a little too aggressive in generating precip
in the afternoon and have slowed down precip chances. Highs will
generally be in the mid and upper 30s.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
The primary long-term forecast issues remains the complex system
crossing the area mid-week. The models` handling of the initial
band of precipitation that will move through the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning has remained fairly consistent,
though still concerned they may be getting it here a little too
fast given that the primary upper level energy is just now reaching
the West Coast. A warm layer aloft will surge northeast across
the area Tuesday evening, limiting any snow to near the onset of
the precipitation. Precipitation later in the night will depend on
boundary layer temperatures (RA vs FZRA), and the depth/strength
of a negative energy area below the melting layer (PL vs FZRA).
There is still uncertainty about precip amounts, which will affect
the amount of icing that occurs if precipitation is mainly FZRA.
All things considered, there is enough potential for AOA 0.25
inch of icing to warrant posting a Winter Storm Watch for N-C
into far NE WI.
The initial frontal wave/inverted trough will weaken and slowly
shift across southern Wisconsin Wednesday. Precipitation across
the forecast area should be mainly rain, with some thunderstorms
also possible.
Colder air will be settling south into the region at low-levels
Wednesday night into Thursday as strong cyclogenesis occurs just
to our east, and strong ascent will help to overcome any lingering
warm layer aloft--except possibly over the far eastern part of
the area. So the thermal profile will favor rain changing to snow.
But the amount and location of precipitation is highly uncertain
due to the interactions that will be occurring between southern
stream shortwave energy rotating around the large scale trough,
and possible phasing of a northern stream shortwave. The potential
exists for a swath of 4-8 inches of heavy wet snow. The best
guess right now is that it would occur from C-NE WI, but that
could easily shift west or east depending on exactly how the
system evolves. Given the uncertainty, will hold off including
that time period in any headlines this far in advance.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
VFR flying conditions are expected through most of the TAF period,
with conditions starting to deteriorate Tuesday evening, after
00Z.
At 340Z this evening, skies were still mainly clear as high
pressure slid off to the east. Overnight, middle level clouds just
off to the west will overspread the area from west to east.
Winds increase from the southeast Tuesday morning with gusts to
around 25 kts. More impactful weather will arrive Tuesday evening
and overnight as a mix of wintry precipitation will lead to
lowering cigs and vsbys. Conditions will likely drop to MVFR
Tuesday evening, with further deterioration beyond the TAF period
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
morning for WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......KLJ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1024 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty northwest winds will continue through Tuesday as low
pressure will be slow to exit the Canadian Maritimes. High
pressure slowly builds in from the west Tuesday before cresting
over the area on Wednesday. A warm front will then push north
through the area Wednesday night bringing chances for a light
wintry mix followed by a warming trend Thursday and Friday
before a cold front crosses the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Update...Upper trof axis is starting to cross the forecast area
now...and upslope snow showers are becoming more prevalent as a
result. Some very light snow or snow showers will drift
southward across the Midcoast as the embedded S/WV moves thru
there...and so I have added some isolated snow showers there.
Otherwise no major changes to the forecast.
Previous discussion...A northwest gradient will persist over
northern New England tonight through Tuesday night as low
pressure in the Canadian Maritimes is slow to exit into the
North Atlantic and high pressure over the Great Lakes slowly
advances eastward. Latest water vapor imagery shows a pair of
upper lows rotating over the Northeast. Latest radar shows
numerous snow showers across Upstate NY and PA associated with
one of these upper lows as cooling temps aloft and surface
heating has allowed for a 100-200 J/kg of MU CAPE. CAMs are much
less bullish on instability in our CWA with CAPE topping out
around 50 J/kg over southern NH and SW Maine late this
afternoon. The upper low over Upstate NY and PA will pivot
across southern New England this evening bringing increasing
chances for snow showers across the forecast area with the
greatest chances across the mountains and portions of southern
New Hampshire. The latest RAP analysis does paint some modest
snow squall parameter values across southern NH and SW Maine,
although without a notable pressure fall/rise couplet or lifting
mechanism the threat for snow squalls is low. Overall expect
snow shower activity to pick up through this evening with those
that see snow showers only receiving a coating to less than an
inch of snow while a couple inches remain possible in the higher
terrain of the White Mountains.
Temperatures aloft will continue to cool this evening bottoming out
around -18C at H8. The upper lows will consolidate over the
Gulf of Maine this evening into tonight as it treks toward Nova
Scotia by Tuesday morning. Snow shower activity will be confined
to the mountains overnight with skies turning party cloudy
downstream of the mountains. Winds will remain elevated
overnight limiting radiational cooling, although it will be
quite cold for this time of year with lows in single digits
across the north and teens across the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday the northwest gradient will still be over New England
providing another breezy day. Northwest winds will run steady
between 10 and 20 mph with gusts 25 to 30 mph. Mostly sunny skies
are expected downstream of the mountains as high pressure gradually
builds in from the west while upslope flow will maintain clouds in
the mountains. As temperatures aloft creep upwards tomorrow expect
highs to be warmer than today but still below normal for this time
of year. Northern areas will stay in the 20s while areas south of
the mountains will rise into the low to mid 30s. Winds may again
limit the radiational cooling potential Tuesday night with lows
ranging from near 10F across the north to near 20F across southern
and coastal areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Troughing will shift north and east over the Canadian Maritimes as
an upper ridge builds over the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday while
another trough digs into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region.
Locally, our wind profile will switch back to west to southwesterly,
which will allow Wednesday`s temperatures to rebound back into the
mid-upper 40s for southern areas and lower 40s across the north.
Wednesday will start out mostly sunny, but cloud cover will increase
in the afternoon and evening as the atmosphere moistens in a top-
fashion ahead of our next storm system that will increase precip
chances from Wednesday evening into Friday.
The first wave of precip looks to arrive Wednesday evening and night
ahead of a warm front with temperature profiles initially cold
enough to support a period of snow or freezing rain (supported by a
low-level warm nose aloft), and confidence has increased enough to
where we have officially added mention of mixed precip to the
forecast. Amounts look minimal for the time being, but there still
could be some slick travel, especially across the foothills and
mountains where duration is expected to be longest. Global models
indicate a period of mid-level drying as temps continue to warm
above freezing through Thursday morning, but with saturated low
levels it will remain cloudy with some drizzle also possible.
The previously mentioned trough will then move across the Great
Lakes and through New England while the surface low lifts north from
the Great Lakes toward Hudson Bay on Thursday and a secondary low
forms near the ME Coast and heads toward the Maritimes on Friday.
Waves of energy rotating around the parent trough will provide the
main source of lift, ramping up precip chances ramp later on
Thursday into Thursday night as moisture increases, but we`ll be
well into the warm sector, so precip type is expected to be rain.
However, as the secondary low lifts north on Friday, a cold front
will sweep through the area, and colder air filtering behind it
could result in a switch back to snow showers, mainly toward the
mountains and higher terrain. For the rest of the area, the trend
will be for precip chances to diminish through the day.
Max temps Thurs should be able to reach the mid-upper 40s on Thurs,
possibly low 50s toward southern NH/ME. On Friday, temps are
expected to reach the 50s before temps start dropping behind the
cold front.
As far as rainfall amounts/timing, GFS/ECMWF ensemble means are in
pretty good agreement with rainfall amounts generally ranging from
0.25-0.50" and primarily in the Thurs. evening through Fri. morning
window.
For the weekend and into early next week, except for some
upslope snow showers across the mountains, drier air will keep
any mention of precip out of the forecast. NBM temperatures
aren`t showing much of a cool down as highs for Saturday are
forecast to be in the 40s and then back into the 50s for Sunday
and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Upslope flow through tonight may bring periods of
MVFR cigs to KHIE. Scattered snow showers are expected through
this evening and cannot rule out brief restrictions in -SHSN
while confidence is not high enough to put restrictions in the
TAF besides at KHIE. Any snow shower activity diminishes
overnight with VFR expected for all tonight through Tuesday
night.
Long Term...VFR conditions expected on Wednesday. MVFR/IFR
restrictions are then possible starting Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning as ceilings are forecast to gradually lower and
some light snow and/or mixed precip moves across the region. IFR
ceilings, possibly LIFR, are expected on Thursday and into the early
part of Friday before conditions improve Friday afternoon and
evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Gusty northwest winds are expected to continue tonight
through Tuesday night bringing SCA conditions. Cold air
advection over the waters tonight will also bring some areas of
light freezing spray.
Long Term...Conditions look to remain below SCA conditions through
early Thursday, but increasing southerly winds will build seas to
the 5-7 ft range late Thursday into Friday, likely requiring a SCA.
Winds will veer westerly behind a cold front on Friday with SCA
conditions continuing into Friday night.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Legro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
756 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 756 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
A strong low pressure system will develop near the Rockies, and
work into the Midwest over the next few days. Strong winds and
widespread rainfall will accompany the system Tuesday into
Thursday. A few strong storms and heavy rainfall also appear
possible for some on Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 756 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
East/southeast winds are expected to pick up during the night as
the high pressure continues to pull out of our region, with gusts
20-25 mph expected by sunrise. This, as well as the high clouds,
will keep temperatures from falling off too much after midnight.
Latest HRRR is joining in with the 18Z NAM Nest model in trying to
get a few showers going in western Illinois toward sunrise, but
with dew points only rising into the lower 20s in that area,
anything reaching the ground will be very light.
Made some minor adjustments for tonight, mainly with the winds,
but general forecast trends are still on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
Quiet and cool conditions are ongoing across the area this afternoon
as high pressure remains in control. High temperatures as of 2 PM
were sitting in the upper 30s to 40s with light east winds in place.
Cloud cover continues to increase through tonight as WAA feeds
northward.
Upper ridging positioned over the western US will work east going
into Tuesday, pushing the surface high toward the eastern Great
Lakes. Further west, a longwave upper trough rotating over the
southwest US will lower heights over the Rockies, spinning up a
surface low in the lee of the mountains. The pressure gradient
will tighten here locally between the developing surface low and
departing high, increasing winds speeds. Southeast winds look to
be pretty breezy with gusts upwards of 30 mph possible especially
during the afternoon hours.
Warm air will advect northward on Tuesday as a warm front approaches
the area. This has made for a tricky high temperature forecast for
Tuesday as models still differ on how far north the front will get
during the day before lifting through the area going into the
nighttime hours. High temperatures will be warmest across southern
counties with values looking to warm into the 50s. However,
temperatures will remain cooler likely only topping out around the
middle 40s across the north resulting in a large gradient across the
area. WAA and isentropic lift will lead to the development of widely
scattered rain showers ahead of the front`s arrival during the
daytime hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
The aforementioned low will approach the area late Tuesday night
into Wednesday, sending a cold front through sometime later in the
afternoon or evening. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the
week with most of the area expected to be in the 60s to even low 70s
for some despite cloud cover. Precipitation chances will increase
ahead of the front, with scattered storms also possible. Model
guidance still keeps instability pretty limited with this system,
however strong wind shear will be present. Windy conditions are
expected once again on Wednesday with south-southwest winds
looking to be the strongest ahead of the front`s arrival. Ensemble
guidance is showing mean wind gusts especially across eastern
parts of the state of 40+ mph with some members even insisting on
higher magnitudes. The severe weather threat appears limited due
to lack of instability, however a 50-60 kt LLJ may be able to make
it`s way down to the surface with any stronger storms despite
lack of organization. Because of this, a marginal risk of severe
storms is focused across southeast IL.
The strong winds will pull a plethora of Gulf moisture northward,
allowing PWATs to surge well above 1". QPF amounts look to range
from about 1-1.5". The flooding threat looks to be limited thanks to
the quick movement of the system and recent drier conditions.
Albeit, locally heavy rainfall may lead to localized low-land
flooding and river rises. Because of this a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall is in place for Wednesday.
Light precipitation chances look to continue into Thursday as a few
waves of energy rotate through the large scale trough that will be
positioned over the Great Lakes Region. Temperatures will be
cooler on Thursday as northwest flow sets up aloft, so cannot
completely rule out a few snowflakes mixing in with the rain
across northern counties early late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Winds will remain breezy on Thursday as the backside of
the low swings through the area. West-northwest winds look to gust
up to 35 mph.
Cooler weather sticks around for the end of the week and into the
weekend before temperatures gradually rebound some for the start of
the new week. Small precipitation chances exist on Saturday tied to
a shortwave looking to move through the country`s midsection.
However, there remains uncertainty on this as model guidance has
differing views on if it will take a more southern or northern track.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
Quiet conditions in the short term for the evening TAF set, but
winds start to pick up after 06Z as high pressure exits the area.
East/southeast winds should be gusting to around 20 knots before
12Z and will be closer to 30 knots by 18Z. Expect ceilings to
gradually lower, mainly staying above 5,000 feet, though KPIA/KSPI
could be getting close to MVFR levels by the end of the forecast
period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...NMB/Geelhart
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...Geelhart
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
921 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Some transitory thin high clouds will move across the area
by midnight with clear skies for the rest of tonight. It will be
cool again overnight with min temps in the M-U 50s, but with light
winds and somewhat higher humidity. HRRR guid is indicating some fog
trying to develop by daybreak over W Central Fl with some east drift
toward the center of the state by daybreak. Some locally patchy,
largely shallow fog wl be possible into early Tue morning, though
more widespread fog is not expected.
Tue...High pressure over the peninsula early in the period will
venture into the western Atlc providing a light, but onshore flow
areawide as the pressure gradient remains weak. Dry conditions
persist, though we will continue a gradual warming trend as highs
will be near 80 along the coast and M-U 80s well into the interior.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. with W/NW wind 5 to 10kts. The pressure gradient
remains light on Tue, though winds become onshore areawide during
the aftn as high pressure moves over the western Atlc.
&&
.MARINE...Tonight...A small nocturnal surge of S/SW flow 10-15 knots
expected this evening, becoming northwest late. Seas up to 3-4 ft in
the Gulf Stream. Seas near shore will be near ~2 ft.
Tue...High pressure crosses the Florida peninsula emerging into the
western Atlc. Onshore flow around 10 kts in the afternoon as the sea
breeze develops. Dry conditions persist. Seas 2-3 ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Tue...Continued slow modification of the airmass,
though afternoon min RHs will still fall into the M-U 20s well into
the interior (along Kissimmee River) and 40-50pct at the immediate
coast, thanks in part to an onshore flow developing from the
afternoon sea breeze.
Wednesday...Minimum RHs continue to recover slowly, but will still
drop into the upper 30s, possibly mid 30s, through the far interior
in the afternoon. In addition, winds are expected to increase to 15-
20 mph mid week as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an
approaching front. This will bring the western portions of the
interior counties to near Red Flag criteria.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
JP/KF
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
Lots of things to be concerned with in the forecast the next few
days, which include the following: Chance of severe storms for
tomorrow afternoon and evening, high temperatures tomorrow,
potential for low clouds, drizzle and fog late tonight into
Tuesday morning, Fire Danger for parts of southeast NE Tuesday
afternoon, chance for light snow or rain/snow mix Wednesday night.
Latest water vapor loop in combination with recent RAP model
initializations early this afternoon showed a strong closed low
off the CA coast and mid level ridging over the high Plains. That
system will be just west of the AZ/CA border tomorrow morning,
while a shortwave trough in a northern stream of energy pushes to
Saskatchewan and MT. Expect somewhat of a phasing and mid
tropospheric wave intensification over western NE Tuesday
afternoon while a surface low deepens over south central NE. There
is a fair amount of model spread in the details for tomorrow. If
we end up cooler, the severe weather threat may be less. For now,
we will continue to go with the SPC outlook and mention a chance
for severe storms, mainly from 4 pm to midnight. The RAP13 model
output does indicate some areas of MUCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg
in our area in the afternoon and evening. Forcing to generate lift
seems sufficient with decent mid level lapse rates.
Current dewpoints this afternoon are pretty low, in the mid teens
to lower 20s, resulting in very high fire danger which may be in
in the Extreme category briefly. Dewpoints are still pretty low
even down in KS, but values were in the 40s and 50s across OK.
We will count on at least some moisture return Tuesday, using a
blend of NBM and RAP. Highs should range from upper 50s near the
SD border to upper 70s or around 80 at the KS border. Colder and
drier air will move back in after the cold front passes Tuesday
night, and Wednesday will be cool as well - with highs mainly in
the 40s. Parts of northeast NE could see a rain/snow mix Wednesday
morning. All of the area will have a 20 to 40 percent chance of
light snow or a rain/snow mix Wednesday night with lows in the
20s, but little if any snow accumulation is expected at this
time.
Model blend suggests increasing chances for precipitation Friday
afternoon into Saturday morning, but again amounts look pretty
light - under a quarter of an inch at most spots. Highs in the 40s
to lower 50s Thursday should moderate to 50s and lower 60s for
Friday/Saturday/Sunday.
Models start to have timing differences in the mid level pattern
for early next week. We will include some low POPs Sunday and
Monday but confidence is not high.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
VFR conditions at TAF issuance with southeast wind gusts at 17 to
27 knots. LLWS develops at KLNK 07-15z, and KOMA 11-15z when winds
at 2000 feet will be from the southeast around 150 degrees at 35
to 45 knots. And then low IFR clouds develop at KLNK 15-17z, and
15-20z at KOFK. Not confident enough to mention any precipitation
at this point since it`s only a 20-30% chance, but could see
spotty showers at KLNK/KOMA after 18z. Should be able to further
refine rainfall potential with later issuances.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Miller
AVIATION...DeWald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
233 PM MST Mon Mar 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will impact the area, bringing gusty
winds and a good chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers
with much cooler temperatures on Tuesday. This system departs
Wednesday with temperatures rebounding to near normal to close out
March and begin April.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows moisture overspreading
Arizona ahead of a deep upper low that is approaching the
California coastline. Lots of virga showing up on radar, but the
boundary layer is too dry for any drops to survive to the surface.
Dewpoints are currently in the 10-20 degree range across the
valleys. The HRRR and other hi-res guidance indicates we may see a
few light showers this evening, primarily at the higher elevations
from Tucson eastward. Winds are the other story with a Red Flag
Warning in effect until 8pm. Strongest winds have been out west,
but it`s a bit of a borderline event. Thick cloud cover has
prevented sufficient deep layer mixing. The tightest 700mb
gradient doesn`t swing through until tonight, which likely keeps
winds from decreasing per our usual nocturnal trend. This is
especially true in the mountains.
Tomorrow is really the main course as the upper low swings across
the region. Winds remain gusty, with the area of strongest winds
shifting east. This may produce patches of blowing dust in the
problem areas in eastern Cochise County, depending on how showers
evolve. The best chance for rain occurs during the morning and
afternoon, spreading from west to east across the area. Some
moderate to heavy showers will be possible. This is due to
200-300 J/kg CAPE and a generous amount of wind shear to keep
storms ventilated. HREF shows a 70% bullseye of 4-hr thunderstorm
probabilities in eastern Pinal County, with lesser chances
spreading out from there. The stronger storms could also drop
some small hail. High temperatures also dramatically decrease,
topping out 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Snowfall is the last thing worth mentioning. With snow levels at
6-7k feet, only the mountain tops will see snow. Depending on the
location, amounts generally range 3-6" with the higher amounts
toward the White Mountains.
By Wednesday, much of the area dries out save for a lingering snow
shower in the Whites. Winds remain a bit breezy out east, becoming
more seasonal by Thursday and beyond. Temperatures warm each day
as ridging attempts to build back in. By the weekend, high
temperatures should be back above normal with a continuation of
dry weather.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 30/00Z.
BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k AGL throughout the region with ceilings
lowering down to 10k ft AGL after 29/03z. Ceilings lower again due
to approaching front after 29/12z to AOA 6k ft AGL with brief
pockets of 3k ft AGL from -SHRA through the forecast period. Radar
shows virga from the west and will fill in towards the east
through the night. ISOLD -SHRA can develop after 28/22z, but the
main line of -SHRA from the front starts after 29/12z through the
forecast period. There is some instability after 29/12z for a
slight chance of ISOLD TSRA mainly confined north of the Catalina
Mountains. Mountain obscuration and lower ceilings near 2k ft AGL
is possible from the -SHRA.
SFC winds will be generally SWLY with speeds of 15-20 kts and gusts
up to 30-35 kts through majority forecast period. 18z HRRR has FROPA
occuring 29/22z with the winds shifting from the NW. Moderate
confidence on the timing for this forecast period. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A storm system will result in strong and gusty
winds at times through tomorrow. Some showers are possible
tonight, but the best chances will occur Tuesday morning and
afternoon across the entire forecast area. A few embedded thunderstorms
will also be possible. Much colder temperatures are expected
Tuesday, with high temperatures 15-20 degrees below normal. A
warming trend then takes place late this week, for a return to
near normal temperatures.
&&
.CLIMATE...This past Saturday Tucson recorded a high of 95
degrees. The forecast high tomorrow is 61 or 62 degrees, likely
to occur after midnight. The last time Tucson saw a drop in high
temperatures of 30+ degrees over a three day period during March
was back in 2012.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ150>154.
&&
$$
Public...Howlett
Aviation...Strongman
Fire Weather....Howlett
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