Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/28/22

National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1022 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 Quiet conditions in place across the coverage area this afternoon as region remains squarely entrenched in northwest flow aloft. A weak wave running along the mid level theta-e gradient through the MO River Valley has provided for a corridor of mid level clouds and weak radar returns but a dry subcloud layer has largely eliminated any ground impact. Surface high pressure slides east overnight as 850 mb ridge axis slides overhead. At the same time, mid level WAA commences from west to east. Look for winds to begin to take on an increasingly southeasterly component as SPG begins to tighten. Monday will feature a fairly pronounced thermal gradient across the coverage area as previous mentioned WAA is most effective across our west (near 60 for highs) and least across the east (40s for highs). Guidance still exhibiting a sizable spread in temperatures depending on the extent of the more robust WAA but given our ability to overachieve lately thanks to the ambient dry conditions, have favored values above the deterministic NBM while still falling short of the higher echelons of the guidance envelope given the less favorable easterly component to low level flow. Southeast winds will also sit on the breezy side with periods of mid/upper level clouds. Fire weather concerns are further discussed in the Fire Weather Section. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 Troughing solidifies into the western CONUS for Monday night and Tuesday with initial WAA wing arriving into our area by as early as Tuesday morning. This likely brings an expansion of stratus coverage with perhaps enough lift to allow for drizzle across NW IA and immediately adjacent areas, with the NAM being most aggressive with this prospect. Temperature forecast for Tuesday again on the challenging side, particularly south of I-90, where the northward push of the warm sector is still in question. The 12z deterministic GFS generally most aggressive with the northward lift of the surface low and tandem warm sector while 12z NAM furthest south. Have generally stayed closer to ensemble means for this period. Shortwave and dPVA lifts into the region by Tuesday evening/overnight and should result an expanding precipitation coverage. Forecast soundings suggest the potential for several hundred joules of MUCAPE for parcels lifted from roughly 850 mb across NW IA and thus will maintain, and even expand, thunder coverage near/within this warm sector. Further to the NW in SE SD and SW MN, majority solution appears to favor thermal profiles conducive for plain rain to start the event; then decreasing surface temperatures coincident with decreasing max Tw aloft from west to east through the overnight hours. The NAM on the other hand (not surprisingly), locks in colder surface temperatures much quicker before the cooling of any warm layer aloft and would leave the door open to freezing rain potential. Have continued to hedge forecast more to consensus solution and away from heavier handed FZRA scenario of the NAM. Ensemble probabilities would favor any snow accumulations remaining below 3 inches and QPF amounts near or below 0.5 inch, perhaps a bit higher across portions of NW IA where a higher influence from convection may exist. Larger scale pattern for Wed/Thu still somewhat nebulous with uncertainties of how lead southern stream vort lobe and the southward diving northern stream wave through the front range of the Rockies interact. At a basic level, this would favor a general trough pattern through the central US with likely a continuation of at least light precipitation chances and below normal temperatures. Trying to pinpoint more confined time periods of precipitation chances or amounts begins to push current model consensus capabilities however. Will maintain slight to chance level POPs and high temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Depending on the mid level waves pivot locations, likely timeframe for periods of breezy conditions. Transient mid level ridging arrives for Friday and will put an end to any precipitation chances for a period with some moderation in temperatures. Next shortwave is quick behind for Friday night and early Saturday with a least some light precipitation chances warranted. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 VFR conditions persist through the overnight and through Monday. Winds gradually increase from the southeast overnight, likely turning gusty by daybreak. Upper clouds will persist for much of the daytime hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 Fire weather concerns for Monday afternoon deserve at least some extra attention as winds are expected to trend into the breezy category. Model guidance in decent consensus toward pushing sustained southeasterly winds into the 20 to 25 mph range with some gusts as high as 30-35 mph, mainly west of I-29. Meanwhile, surface dewpoints will be on the rise, but with also moderating temperatures, relative humidity values will again fall close to critical values. The HRRR is generally most aggressive with push minimum RH values to the doorstep of critical thresholds while the also typically mixy RAP holds values closer to 30% for areas west of I-29, which sits closer to general model consensus. Forecast soundings show a notable inversion at the top of the mixed layer in the 850:800 mb layer which should prevent mixing from overachieving into a significantly drier airmass above. With all of this in mind, evidence would seem to support conditions falling short of widespread criteria and thus negate the need for headlines as this point but certainly worth monitoring over the next 24 hours. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kalin LONG TERM...Kalin AVIATION...Dux FIRE WEATHER...Kalin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
625 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 Still cold tomorrow, then a little warmer Tuesday. A major storm system crossing the region will bring another round of significant precipitation mid-week. Much of it could be wintry, especially across the north. The progressive and very energetic southern stream of a split flow regime will dominate the weather across the CONUS during the period. High amplitude will be maintained for about the first half of the forecast period, and that will allow for temporary/partial phasing with the northern stream at times. Amplitude will wane during the latter part of the period. The progression of a strong southern stream trough across the central portion of the country will result in another round of significant precipitation mid-week. Amounts from that system alone should be sufficient to drive the 7 day total above normal. Well below normal temperatures at the start of the forecast period will moderate as the mid-week system crosses the region. Readings will fall back for a couple days in the wake of the system and then rebound again late. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show arctic high pressure stretching from Manitoba to the mid-Mississippi Valley early this afternoon. While northwest winds have maintained scattered to broken clouds over north-central WI and the northern Door Peninsula, backing low level flow and mixing into drier air aloft has caused these clouds to dissipate. Looking upstream, mainly clear skies prevail over the northern Mississippi Valley and some mid- clouds in warm advection exist over the Dakotas. As the high becomes centered across the state, focus of this forecast revolves around cloud trends and temps. Tonight...Quiet and cold weather as the arctic ridge axis becomes centered across Wisconsin. Most of the region will see nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions. However, confidence is lower that winds will decouple over far northeast WI, while veering low level winds may bring back more lake effect clouds into far north-central WI. Don`t think these clouds will be widespread enough to have a significant impact on temps. As a result, remained on the cold side of guidance where the snow pack exists, and closer to the national blend elsewhere. Lows ranging from the middle single digits below zero over the northwoods to the teens above zero over the Fox Valley and Lakeshore. Monday...High pressure will remain across the region, resulting in ample sunshine. Temps will continue to moderate with highs ranging from the upper 20s to middle 30s. .LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 Clouds will be increasing Monday night, but probably not quickly enough to prevent another cold night--especially across the snow covered north/far northeast. Beyond that, the main forecast issue will be the weather generated by the large southern stream trough crossing the area mid-week. The system will be quite complex, containing several significant pieces of shortwave energy. A lead shortwave ejecting out of the large scale southern stream trough will race toward the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. That will drive a frontal wave or inverted trough toward the area, which will be accompanied by a band of precipitation forced by strong isentropic lift. The models have perhaps slowed the arrival of the precipitation a little since yesterday, but still race it all the way across the forecast area by 12Z Wednesday. That just seems too fast as the primary circulation center within the southern stream upper trough is still 500 miles off the West Coast this afternoon. Given the high amplitude pattern, getting precipitation into the forecast area that fast may be difficult. Timing will be important, because if the bulk of the precipitation shifts through at night is has a better chance of being ZR as persistent SE winds will eventually allow slightly warmer air to work across the area during the day Wednesday. A warm layer aloft will surge north across the area--resulting in liquid precipitation aloft. And boundary layer temperatures should warm enough to result primarily rain across the whole area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as the lead wave/inverted trough weaken as they drift east into the area. A much stronger piece of energy will be swinging around the base of the large scale trough, likely pulling it into a negative tilt by late Wednesday. That should result in cyclogenesis across the mid- Mississippi Valley region, with the deepening cyclone then racing NNE to Lake Michigan by Thursday morning. Surface winds west of the cyclone track will back NE and then N, drawing colder air into the area. Intense lift with the shortwave will also work to knock out the warm layer aloft, resulting in a change back to a wintry mix and then snow. This is the period when a significant snowfall appears possible. But there is a lot of uncertainty about how well developed the deformation zone precipitation shield will become because yet another substantial piece of energy, this one having originated in the northern stream and racing down the back side of the upper trough may kick the cyclone off to the northeast quickly. That may not allow for the deformation zone precipitation shield to become fully established and pivot across the area. The interaction between the northern and southern streams, and the complex interactions between the individual shortwaves all raise the level of uncertainty regarding precipitation types, amounts, and their impact on the public. For this reason, will continue to highlight the potential for messy weather mid-week, but hold off advertising specifics in terms of snow and ice amounts. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 Northwest winds will continue to result in scattered to broken MVFR cigs over northern WI through the taf period due to lake effect cloud streets off Lake Superior. The rest of the region should see clear to mostly clear skies. Gusty northwest winds will finally diminish this evening when high pressure builds into the region, which will linger through Monday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Skowronski AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
845 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 839 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 The previous Red Flag Warning was canceled for the remainder of the evening. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for tomorrow afternoon and early evening across all of Southeast New Mexico south to the I-10 corridor, and the western half of the Permian Basin. Winds will be around 15-20 mph or greater for the affected areas tomorrow as well as temperatures solidly into the 80s and 90s for highs. Given the extremely dry fuels in place, critical fire weather conditions will exist for the aforementioned areas. A higher end critical fire weather day is still expected for Tuesday across the entire region, so no changes were made to the previous Fire Weather Watch. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 VFR next 24 hrs. Winds will settle at KCNM/KPEQ overnight with VRB likely at both terminals prior to 12z. Remainder of terminals will see persistent S/SE flow due to LLJ. Occasional gusts expected at KFST b/w 02-12z before relaxing. Winds shifting out of S/SW tomorrow PM. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 An upper level ridge axis will move across the area today, after which we will begin feeling the effects of an upper level low pressure system moving into the West Coast. Westerly flow ahead and south of the low will increase as the system nears the CWA, increasing winds as well as downsloping from the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. This could present the chance for record breaking temperatures on Monday, however this warming effect will be countered somewhat by increasing clouds in the mid and upper levels. MET/MAV guidance has been trending lower the past few model runs and is settling on highs from the upper 80s to lower 90s. 850 mb temp extrapolation agrees with guidance numbers so confidence is high in && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 Tuesday will begin with a moisture gradient from W-E as a stout low lvl jet pulls moisture wwd into the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. This moisture return will be short lived unfortunately as a sfc low develops over E CO/W KS and begins to lift into S/C NE. An assocd dryline will mix ewd across the S Plains w/dew points falling into the teens and 20s in its wake. Latest NAM 12 and RAP analysis indicates the dryline will migrate to the far E fringe of our CWA and stall out Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a broad open 500 hpa trough will be approaching from the W paired w/a robust 80+kt mid- level jet overspreading W TX and SE NM. The arrival of this jet during peak heating will result in strong to very strong winds across the CWA. We are talking about a significant wind storm with high winds extending from the mountains into the adjacent plains and solid advisory level winds across the remainder of the region. We will go ahead and issue a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns and adjacent plains of SE NM and the Upper Trans Pecos where gusts above 50 kts are likely. These strong winds coupled with dessicated fuels will result in extreme fire weather conditions across much of the region. Tuesday`s setup looks like a potentially dangerous situation fire weather day. This will be elaborated on in the fire weather discussion below. On the other side of the coin will be the potential for thunderstorms, although more uncertainty exists whether or not storms will even develop in our CWA. This will be highly dependent on where the dryline and approaching Pacific Front collide. Most models are indicating this collision will occur between ABI and SJT. However we will maintain chc PoPs over the far E CWA Tuesday evening to account for the possibility of the dryline retreating further wwd. Severe storms will be possible as shear and lapse rates increase ahead of the approaching trough, but the greatest severe risk will remain over the Low Rolling Plains and Big Country. Temperatures will cool down to near normal following the Pacific cold front on Wednesday and a backdoor front on Thursday where highs in the U60s/L70s can be expected both days. Sfc winds will return to the south briefly on Friday promoting a warmer day w/highs in the 70s/80s across the CWA. However, another cold front looks to arrive on Saturday, knocking temps down a few degrees. Overall it looks like a mild remainder of the week with much less wind from Thursday onwards. -Salerno && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 The exceptional drought that our region is facing has brought fuels to critically dry levels in most locations east of the Guadalupe Mountains. We will continue to see the fire weather threat increase through Tuesday. Today`s concerns are mainly focused across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where winds have increased to 15 to 20 mph and ERCs are above the 90th percentile. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 PM CDT. Fire weather concerns will shift to portions of southeast New Mexico and northwest Permian Basin on Monday, but lighter winds and increasing cloud cover may preclude critical conditions. It will be another very dry day however, with RHs bottoming out in the single digits for the aforementioned areas. The fire weather threat will culminate on Tuesday with extreme fire weather expected. A strong mid-lvl jet will intersect the low level thermal ridge over W TX and SE NM. RH values will fall below 10 percent with winds gusting over 50 mph at times. RFTI values will increase to 5 to 8 or critical to extreme. Any fire that develops will spread rapidly. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for the entire area Tuesday afternoon and evening. A cold front will blow through the area on Tuesday night, causing winds to shift out of the northwest with cooler conditions and a lower fire weather threat expected through the remainder of the week. -Salerno && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 54 92 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 48 90 57 78 / 0 0 10 0 Dryden 52 88 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 55 94 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 55 80 56 68 / 0 0 10 0 Hobbs 47 90 54 78 / 0 0 10 0 Marfa 42 84 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 53 92 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 55 92 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 49 92 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector- Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos- Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell- Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Monday for Andrews-Borden-Chinati Mountains-Crane- Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving- Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin- Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Monday for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...87