Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/28/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1022 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
Quiet conditions in place across the coverage area this afternoon as
region remains squarely entrenched in northwest flow aloft. A weak
wave running along the mid level theta-e gradient through the MO
River Valley has provided for a corridor of mid level clouds and
weak radar returns but a dry subcloud layer has largely eliminated
any ground impact.
Surface high pressure slides east overnight as 850 mb ridge axis
slides overhead. At the same time, mid level WAA commences from west
to east. Look for winds to begin to take on an increasingly
southeasterly component as SPG begins to tighten.
Monday will feature a fairly pronounced thermal gradient across the
coverage area as previous mentioned WAA is most effective across our
west (near 60 for highs) and least across the east (40s for highs).
Guidance still exhibiting a sizable spread in temperatures depending
on the extent of the more robust WAA but given our ability to
overachieve lately thanks to the ambient dry conditions, have
favored values above the deterministic NBM while still falling short
of the higher echelons of the guidance envelope given the less
favorable easterly component to low level flow. Southeast winds will
also sit on the breezy side with periods of mid/upper level clouds.
Fire weather concerns are further discussed in the Fire Weather
Section.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
Troughing solidifies into the western CONUS for Monday night and
Tuesday with initial WAA wing arriving into our area by as early as
Tuesday morning. This likely brings an expansion of stratus coverage
with perhaps enough lift to allow for drizzle across NW IA and
immediately adjacent areas, with the NAM being most aggressive with
this prospect.
Temperature forecast for Tuesday again on the challenging side,
particularly south of I-90, where the northward push of the warm
sector is still in question. The 12z deterministic GFS generally
most aggressive with the northward lift of the surface low and tandem
warm sector while 12z NAM furthest south. Have generally stayed
closer to ensemble means for this period.
Shortwave and dPVA lifts into the region by Tuesday
evening/overnight and should result an expanding precipitation
coverage. Forecast soundings suggest the potential for several
hundred joules of MUCAPE for parcels lifted from roughly 850 mb
across NW IA and thus will maintain, and even expand, thunder
coverage near/within this warm sector. Further to the NW in SE SD
and SW MN, majority solution appears to favor thermal profiles
conducive for plain rain to start the event; then decreasing surface
temperatures coincident with decreasing max Tw aloft from west to
east through the overnight hours. The NAM on the other hand (not
surprisingly), locks in colder surface temperatures much quicker
before the cooling of any warm layer aloft and would leave the door
open to freezing rain potential. Have continued to hedge forecast
more to consensus solution and away from heavier handed FZRA
scenario of the NAM. Ensemble probabilities would favor any snow
accumulations remaining below 3 inches and QPF amounts near or below
0.5 inch, perhaps a bit higher across portions of NW IA where a
higher influence from convection may exist.
Larger scale pattern for Wed/Thu still somewhat nebulous with
uncertainties of how lead southern stream vort lobe and the
southward diving northern stream wave through the front range of the
Rockies interact. At a basic level, this would favor a general
trough pattern through the central US with likely a continuation of
at least light precipitation chances and below normal temperatures.
Trying to pinpoint more confined time periods of precipitation
chances or amounts begins to push current model consensus
capabilities however. Will maintain slight to chance level POPs and
high temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Depending on the mid
level waves pivot locations, likely timeframe for periods of breezy
conditions.
Transient mid level ridging arrives for Friday and will put an end
to any precipitation chances for a period with some moderation in
temperatures. Next shortwave is quick behind for Friday night and
early Saturday with a least some light precipitation chances
warranted.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
VFR conditions persist through the overnight and through Monday.
Winds gradually increase from the southeast overnight, likely
turning gusty by daybreak.
Upper clouds will persist for much of the daytime hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
Fire weather concerns for Monday afternoon deserve at least some
extra attention as winds are expected to trend into the breezy
category. Model guidance in decent consensus toward pushing
sustained southeasterly winds into the 20 to 25 mph range with
some gusts as high as 30-35 mph, mainly west of I-29. Meanwhile,
surface dewpoints will be on the rise, but with also moderating
temperatures, relative humidity values will again fall close to
critical values. The HRRR is generally most aggressive with push
minimum RH values to the doorstep of critical thresholds while the
also typically mixy RAP holds values closer to 30% for areas west
of I-29, which sits closer to general model consensus. Forecast
soundings show a notable inversion at the top of the mixed layer
in the 850:800 mb layer which should prevent mixing from
overachieving into a significantly drier airmass above. With all
of this in mind, evidence would seem to support conditions falling
short of widespread criteria and thus negate the need for
headlines as this point but certainly worth monitoring over the
next 24 hours.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kalin
LONG TERM...Kalin
AVIATION...Dux
FIRE WEATHER...Kalin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
625 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
Still cold tomorrow, then a little warmer Tuesday. A major storm
system crossing the region will bring another round of significant
precipitation mid-week. Much of it could be wintry, especially
across the north.
The progressive and very energetic southern stream of a split
flow regime will dominate the weather across the CONUS during the
period. High amplitude will be maintained for about the first half
of the forecast period, and that will allow for temporary/partial
phasing with the northern stream at times. Amplitude will wane
during the latter part of the period.
The progression of a strong southern stream trough across the
central portion of the country will result in another round of
significant precipitation mid-week. Amounts from that system alone
should be sufficient to drive the 7 day total above normal. Well
below normal temperatures at the start of the forecast period will
moderate as the mid-week system crosses the region. Readings will
fall back for a couple days in the wake of the system and then
rebound again late.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show arctic
high pressure stretching from Manitoba to the mid-Mississippi
Valley early this afternoon. While northwest winds have maintained
scattered to broken clouds over north-central WI and the northern
Door Peninsula, backing low level flow and mixing into drier air
aloft has caused these clouds to dissipate. Looking upstream,
mainly clear skies prevail over the northern Mississippi Valley
and some mid- clouds in warm advection exist over the Dakotas. As
the high becomes centered across the state, focus of this forecast
revolves around cloud trends and temps.
Tonight...Quiet and cold weather as the arctic ridge axis becomes
centered across Wisconsin. Most of the region will see nearly
ideal radiational cooling conditions. However, confidence is lower
that winds will decouple over far northeast WI, while veering low
level winds may bring back more lake effect clouds into far
north-central WI. Don`t think these clouds will be widespread
enough to have a significant impact on temps. As a result,
remained on the cold side of guidance where the snow pack exists,
and closer to the national blend elsewhere. Lows ranging from the
middle single digits below zero over the northwoods to the teens
above zero over the Fox Valley and Lakeshore.
Monday...High pressure will remain across the region, resulting
in ample sunshine. Temps will continue to moderate with highs
ranging from the upper 20s to middle 30s.
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
Clouds will be increasing Monday night, but probably not quickly
enough to prevent another cold night--especially across the snow
covered north/far northeast.
Beyond that, the main forecast issue will be the weather
generated by the large southern stream trough crossing the area
mid-week. The system will be quite complex, containing several
significant pieces of shortwave energy.
A lead shortwave ejecting out of the large scale southern stream
trough will race toward the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. That
will drive a frontal wave or inverted trough toward the area,
which will be accompanied by a band of precipitation forced by
strong isentropic lift. The models have perhaps slowed the arrival
of the precipitation a little since yesterday, but still race it
all the way across the forecast area by 12Z Wednesday. That just
seems too fast as the primary circulation center within the
southern stream upper trough is still 500 miles off the West Coast
this afternoon. Given the high amplitude pattern, getting
precipitation into the forecast area that fast may be difficult.
Timing will be important, because if the bulk of the precipitation
shifts through at night is has a better chance of being ZR as
persistent SE winds will eventually allow slightly warmer air to
work across the area during the day Wednesday.
A warm layer aloft will surge north across the area--resulting in
liquid precipitation aloft. And boundary layer temperatures
should warm enough to result primarily rain across the whole area
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as the lead
wave/inverted trough weaken as they drift east into the area. A
much stronger piece of energy will be swinging around the base of
the large scale trough, likely pulling it into a negative tilt by
late Wednesday. That should result in cyclogenesis across the mid-
Mississippi Valley region, with the deepening cyclone then racing
NNE to Lake Michigan by Thursday morning. Surface winds west of
the cyclone track will back NE and then N, drawing colder air into
the area. Intense lift with the shortwave will also work to knock
out the warm layer aloft, resulting in a change back to a wintry
mix and then snow. This is the period when a significant snowfall
appears possible. But there is a lot of uncertainty about how well
developed the deformation zone precipitation shield will become
because yet another substantial piece of energy, this one having
originated in the northern stream and racing down the back side of
the upper trough may kick the cyclone off to the northeast
quickly. That may not allow for the deformation zone precipitation
shield to become fully established and pivot across the area.
The interaction between the northern and southern streams, and
the complex interactions between the individual shortwaves all
raise the level of uncertainty regarding precipitation types,
amounts, and their impact on the public. For this reason, will
continue to highlight the potential for messy weather mid-week,
but hold off advertising specifics in terms of snow and ice
amounts.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
Northwest winds will continue to result in scattered to broken
MVFR cigs over northern WI through the taf period due to lake
effect cloud streets off Lake Superior. The rest of the region
should see clear to mostly clear skies. Gusty northwest winds
will finally diminish this evening when high pressure builds into
the region, which will linger through Monday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
845 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
The previous Red Flag Warning was canceled for the remainder of
the evening. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for tomorrow
afternoon and early evening across all of Southeast New Mexico
south to the I-10 corridor, and the western half of the Permian
Basin. Winds will be around 15-20 mph or greater for the affected
areas tomorrow as well as temperatures solidly into the 80s and
90s for highs. Given the extremely dry fuels in place, critical
fire weather conditions will exist for the aforementioned areas.
A higher end critical fire weather day is still expected for
Tuesday across the entire region, so no changes were made to the
previous Fire Weather Watch.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
VFR next 24 hrs. Winds will settle at KCNM/KPEQ overnight with
VRB likely at both terminals prior to 12z. Remainder of terminals
will see persistent S/SE flow due to LLJ. Occasional gusts
expected at KFST b/w 02-12z before relaxing. Winds shifting out of
S/SW tomorrow PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
An upper level ridge axis will move across the area today, after
which we will begin feeling the effects of an upper level low
pressure system moving into the West Coast. Westerly flow ahead and
south of the low will increase as the system nears the CWA,
increasing winds as well as downsloping from the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains. This could present the chance for record breaking
temperatures on Monday, however this warming effect will be
countered somewhat by increasing clouds in the mid and upper levels.
MET/MAV guidance has been trending lower the past few model runs and
is settling on highs from the upper 80s to lower 90s. 850 mb temp
extrapolation agrees with guidance numbers so confidence is high in
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
Tuesday will begin with a moisture gradient from W-E as a stout low
lvl jet pulls moisture wwd into the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. This moisture return will be short lived unfortunately as a
sfc low develops over E CO/W KS and begins to lift into S/C NE. An
assocd dryline will mix ewd across the S Plains w/dew points falling
into the teens and 20s in its wake. Latest NAM 12 and RAP analysis
indicates the dryline will migrate to the far E fringe of our CWA
and stall out Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a broad open 500 hpa
trough will be approaching from the W paired w/a robust 80+kt mid-
level jet overspreading W TX and SE NM. The arrival of this jet
during peak heating will result in strong to very strong winds
across the CWA. We are talking about a significant wind storm
with high winds extending from the mountains into the adjacent
plains and solid advisory level winds across the remainder of the
region. We will go ahead and issue a High Wind Watch for the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns and adjacent plains of SE NM and the
Upper Trans Pecos where gusts above 50 kts are likely. These
strong winds coupled with dessicated fuels will result in extreme
fire weather conditions across much of the region. Tuesday`s
setup looks like a potentially dangerous situation fire weather
day. This will be elaborated on in the fire weather discussion
below. On the other side of the coin will be the potential for
thunderstorms, although more uncertainty exists whether or not
storms will even develop in our CWA. This will be highly
dependent on where the dryline and approaching Pacific Front
collide. Most models are indicating this collision will occur
between ABI and SJT. However we will maintain chc PoPs over the
far E CWA Tuesday evening to account for the possibility of the
dryline retreating further wwd. Severe storms will be possible as
shear and lapse rates increase ahead of the approaching trough,
but the greatest severe risk will remain over the Low Rolling
Plains and Big Country.
Temperatures will cool down to near normal following the Pacific
cold front on Wednesday and a backdoor front on Thursday where highs
in the U60s/L70s can be expected both days. Sfc winds will return to
the south briefly on Friday promoting a warmer day w/highs in the
70s/80s across the CWA. However, another cold front looks to arrive
on Saturday, knocking temps down a few degrees. Overall it looks
like a mild remainder of the week with much less wind from Thursday
onwards.
-Salerno
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
The exceptional drought that our region is facing has brought fuels
to critically dry levels in most locations east of the Guadalupe
Mountains. We will continue to see the fire weather threat increase
through Tuesday. Today`s concerns are mainly focused across the far
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where winds have
increased to 15 to 20 mph and ERCs are above the 90th percentile. A
Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 PM CDT. Fire weather
concerns will shift to portions of southeast New Mexico and
northwest Permian Basin on Monday, but lighter winds and increasing
cloud cover may preclude critical conditions. It will be another
very dry day however, with RHs bottoming out in the single digits
for the aforementioned areas. The fire weather threat will culminate
on Tuesday with extreme fire weather expected. A strong mid-lvl jet
will intersect the low level thermal ridge over W TX and SE NM. RH
values will fall below 10 percent with winds gusting over 50 mph at
times. RFTI values will increase to 5 to 8 or critical to extreme.
Any fire that develops will spread rapidly. A Fire Weather Watch
remains in effect for the entire area Tuesday afternoon and evening.
A cold front will blow through the area on Tuesday night, causing
winds to shift out of the northwest with cooler conditions and a
lower fire weather threat expected through the remainder of the
week.
-Salerno
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 54 92 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 48 90 57 78 / 0 0 10 0
Dryden 52 88 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 55 94 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 55 80 56 68 / 0 0 10 0
Hobbs 47 90 54 78 / 0 0 10 0
Marfa 42 84 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 53 92 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 55 92 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 49 92 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati
Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-
Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower
Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-
Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ Monday for Andrews-Borden-Chinati Mountains-Crane-
Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-
Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Reeves County Plains-Van
Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Marfa
Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning
for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
Guadalupe Mountains.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Monday for Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
Mountains.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...87