Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/27/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1040 PM EDT Sat Mar 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail across the area through the rest of the weekend and persist through the middle of next week. A cold front will likely impact the area next Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Late evening satellite images indicated cloud free conditions across the region. Given a clear sky, decreasing winds, and dry conditions, late evening temperatures have cooled into the mid to upper 50s inland to around 60 degrees along the coast. Temperatures appear on track to range in the 40s across the region by daybreak Sunday. A few sheltered areas could see temperatures reach the upper 30s. Early evening satellite images showed two plumes of smoke drifting across the forecast area from central GA. Sfc observations and near-sfc smoke guidance from the HRRR indicates that most of the smoke will remain elevated. However, a few spots may see or smell some smoke this evening and tonight. We will watch trends this evening before adding smoke to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday through Tuesday: Aloft, troughing will linger aloft on Sunday followed by rising heights Monday and Tuesday as a ridge approaches from the west. High pressure will prevail across the region at the surface, with deep dry air in place Sunday and Sunday night. We will see modest moistening Monday into Tuesday, with a bit of cloud cover passing through the region. Temperatures will follow a warming trend, with widespread upper 60s on Sunday, upper 60s to low 70s Monday, and possibly a few locations in southeast Georgia reaching the low 80s Tuesday. Sunday will be another breezy day, though not as breezy as Saturday. Frequent gusts into the 20-25 mph range are expected, with a few stronger gusts possible across southeast Georgia. Sunday night will be the coolest night, with good radiational cooling producing temperatures in the low to mid 40s and possibly even a few upper 30s. Can`t rule out some degree of a frost threat, mainly across interior portions of Allendale, Colleton, Dorchester, and Berkeley counties. The forecast does not include frost at this time, but it could need to be added with future updates. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The forecast concern in the long term period is a cold front expected to approach the area Wednesday night, and pass through Thursday. Model agreement is good regarding timing, and we have followed guidance with a band of 80% or higher rain chances on Thursday. Thunderstorms will be possible with the front, and some degree of a severe threat could accompany it as well. Behind the front, the forecast should be dry, though there is some question as to how far south and east the front clears. Temperatures will be above normal through the period, with the warmest day coming Wednesday with widespread low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR through the 0Z TAF period. Gusty west winds will gradually decrease through this evening, with gust ending by midnight. WNW winds will become gusty again on Sunday, gusts should favor values between 20-25 kts. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail. Winds will be breezy again Sunday, with frequent gusts up to or just above 20 knots. A cold front could bring flight restrictions Wednesday night and Thursday. && .MARINE... A potent low-level jet will move through the area overnight. The strongest winds will be this evening when 925 mb winds increase to 35-40 kt over the nearshore waters. Latest high resolution guidance and observation trends indicate that gusts around 35 kts will occur across the Charleston near shore waters this evening, Gale Warning until midnight. Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisories continuing through the night to highlight gusts around 30 kts and seas up to 6 ft. Sunday through Thursday: Elevated winds and seas will persist for much of Sunday before diminishing into Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will linger across the outer Georgia waters, expiring Sunday afternoon. Winds will become 10 knots or less Monday and Monday night, before a modest northeast surge Tuesday. Thereafter, winds will steadily turn more southerly into Wednesday and Thursday. As the a front approaches from the west, wind speeds will increase Wednesday night and another round of Small Craft Advisories could be needed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Another round of low RH`s and breezy winds is expected Sunday. Except for the immediate coastline, all of southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina should see minimum RH`s around 20 percent with an area of upper teens expected inland. While RH`s will meet Red Flag Warning criteria, winds won`t be a gusty as Saturday and will likely fall short of explicit criteria. Wind gusts of 20-25 mph will be common, but could be a bit stronger across southeast Georgia. Following coordination with surrounding NWS offices and land management agencies, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the entire area. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ352-354. Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ374. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...BSH LONG TERM...BSH AVIATION...NED MARINE...BSH/JRL FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1047 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Cold the next couple days, then moderating temperatures. A major storm system crossing the region will bring another round of significant precipitation mid-week. Much of it could be wintry across the north. A slowly progressive and very energetic southern stream of a split flow regime will dominate the weather across the CONUS during the period. Partial phasing of the northern stream energy into a deep eastern NOAM trough will drive cold air from high latitudes across the area the next couple days, resulting in much below normal temperatures. Readings will rebound for a couple days as the next trough propagates east toward/across the area, then drop off again late in the week. The system that will pass through the area mid- week is expected to produce significant precipitation, so amounts for the 7 day period are likely to be above normal. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show deep layer cyclonic flow across the western Great Lakes. The back edge of the low stratus is shifting east over western Wisconsin, but cold flow off Lake Superior will likely reinforce the cloud cover over much of north-central and northeast WI. Light snow showers/flurries should also diminish through the afternoon with erosion of the shallow saturated layer. Some breaks in the overcast may also develop in the downsloping areas of northeast WI by the end of the afternoon. As high pressure builds into the region from the northern Plains, light snow shower and cloud trends are the focus of this forecast. Tonight...Cold, cyclonic flow will continue though gusty northwest winds will subside somewhat. Drier air advecting into the region in the 850-700mb layer will likely cause erosion of the cloud cover away from the higher terrain areas of north-central WI, and most areas outside of the lake effect snow belt will likely become clear overnight. With flow off western Lake Superior, clouds and light lake effect snow showers will continue over the north-central WI snow belt this evening with only a few tenths of an inch of accumulations possible. Low temps will be well below normal and range from the lower to middle single digits over the northwoods to the middle teens along Lake Michigan. Sunday...The core of the cold airmass will retreat to the northeast as low level winds back around to the west. The backing of the winds will support clearing skies for any lingering cloud cover over far northern Wisconsin. Most other locations will see ample sunshine and chilly conditions. Highs will range from near 20 degrees near the U.P. border to the low 30s over the southern Fox Valley. .LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 A cold dry air mass, light winds, and clear skies will support significant radiational cooling Sunday night. It`s still not too hard to get mins below zero in the north at this time of year, so opted to go with the bias-corrected blend of model temperatures in the north--which was below zero and lower than the NBM. Used a mix of the above and the NBM across the south where there isn`t a snow cover. The main forecast issue is handling the strong cyclone expected to cross the area mid-week. Not surprisingly at this time range, models are exhibiting run to run changes on the track of the cyclone and timing/amount of precipitation. Thermal profiles are a little less volatile. The air mass lingering across the area at low levels will be cold and dry. Strong southwest flow at middle levels will likely drive a warm layer aloft across the area. The result is likely to be a significant wintry mix. The normal gridded forecast development process favors getting primarily rain and/or snow as the P-Type in that time frame. But forced in quite a bit of FZRA/PL as those may be the most likely P-Types across the north with the initial band of precipitation that surges into the area. E-C WI will probably be warm enough for mainly rain. There also could also be a rapid change-over to heavy snow across much of the area as the strong dynamics race north across the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Mostly clear skies will rule over much of the region during the TAF period, save for far north-central Wisconsin where lake effect clouds will continue. Gusty winds will continue across northern Wisconsin and gradually diminish on Saturday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Skowronski AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1018 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 .UPDATE... Evening update. && .DISCUSSION... Mostly clear skies are currently being seen in the area with some smoke due to fires in the area. Radiational cooling with some light onshore flow will mean that patchy fog will be possible tonight into tomorrow morning, mostly for southern areas. With onshore flow continuing tomorrow, moisture will increase in the area. Winds will increase during the day but will be light tomorrow night. Therefore, patchy fog will be possible tomorrow night into Monday morning as well. Grids were adjusted to include the latest HRRR model run for smoke as well as to adjust the fog potential. 55 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022/ DISCUSSION... For the 03/27/2022 0000 UTC TAF package. AVIATION... Other than some smoke and haze from the fires across the area that may impact a few terminals, some light fog can be expected around sunrise. Otherwise winds will be the greatest forecast issue through the period with gusty winds expected. 27 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022/ SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]... Forecast for the rest of the weekend and into Monday is generally benign, as a low/mid level ridge slides out of SE TX and migrates slowly EWD across the northern Gulf, deepening the southerly flow already in place across the region. Initial MSTR return will be fairly shallow in nature, with a very warm and dry layer noted on forecast soundings above the intruding near SFC marine layer. Given the influx of higher dewpoints and another night of decent radiational cooling, could see some patchy fog formation across the area, and have inserted such into the weather grid where the greatest probabilities reside. Temperature-wise, highs the next couple of days will continue to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lows the most impacted by the returning MSTR, running 5 to 10 degrees warmer tonight vs. last night, and creeping up a few degrees each subsequent night. 13 LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]... The long term forecast kicks off with warm temps in the 80s and strengthening southerly flow promoted by an upper level ridge and tightening gradient respectively. With sustained winds of around 20 to 25 MPH forecast south of the I-10 corridor, its possible that a Wind Advisory will be issued for Tuesday afternoon until Wednesday evening. (At the most). A shortwave trough will be moving out of the southwestern US and into the southern plains on Tuesday. On Wednesday, several models depict it making its way into parts of the mid MS valley area, then going thru our CWA. With strong forcing ahead of the shortwave, activity will begin across the western part of the CWA as early as late Tuesday. Strong moisture advection will be preceding this event, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and pwats nearing 1.5 to 1.9 in. There is a risk for severe weather as this trough sweeps through the area on Wednesday. While the mode of severe weather has not been determined as of yet, we could be looking at damaging wind gusts and possibly an isolated tornado threat spawning from what could be a QLCS moving across the area. However, it is not out of the realm of possibility for some discrete supercells to form, allowing for all modes of severe weather. In regards to flash flooding, this appears to be less likely at the moment, with around a quarter to an inch of rain expected. A high pressure will be quick to build in behind that, with skies clearing and comfortable temperatures until the end of the work week. There is another trough expected to move over the Rockies and into the area over the weekend, however the models are not in agreement as to when activity will begin in our area. The Canadian and EURO have showers starting as soon as late Friday, while the GFS keeps us dry. Opted to run with the NBM, which gives 20 PoPs for that time frame. Stigger/87 MARINE... A light to modest onshore flow will prevail through the weekend and into Monday, increasing and becoming strong and gusty Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of an approaching storm system and associated frontal boundary. Small craft advisories may be needed. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will precede the front on Wednesday, with the boundary forecast to cross the coastal waters Wednesday night, and an offshore flow following on Thursday. 13 LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 51 82 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 55 79 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 51 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 58 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$
Forecast Discussion:

This afternoon, the area remains under northwest flow aloft with a trough over the northeastern CONUS and a ridge over the southwestern CONUS. All-in-all, it`s a nice afternoon to start the weekend with temperatures mainly in the mid and upper 50`s under sunny skies. A surface ridge will stay over the area through tonight with slight pressure increases occurring. Temperatures will cool to near 30 degrees tonight with the ridge in place. A weak shortwave could ride southward through the northwest flow tonight and early tomorrow, providing a brief period of mid-level lift. The atmospheric profile is expected to be fairly dry in the lower levels, but a few flurries/sprinkles could reach the surface where mid-level lift and saturation are realized. Have kept POPs less than 15 percent given limits due to dry air. Attention then turns to Tuesday. A mid-level trough will work across the southwestern CONUS with some mid-level divergence noted over the region. A warm front looks to move north of the area by midday Tuesday. WAA will allow temperatures to soar into the low and mid 80s for most locations across the CWA. Moisture advection will also occur with most deterministic models and some ensemble model blends showing mid to upper 50 degree dewpoints across eastern KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE combined with between 40 and 50 kts of deep layer shear. Given those parameters, there remains at least a slight risk for a round of strong and severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening. Where a dryline sets up will also impact fire weather conditions, which will be more of a concern toward central KS. There are many details to work out and certainly some changes could occur in models as this timeframe approaches, but Tuesday will be a day to watch closely for fire and severe potential. A cooler air mass will surge into the area behind that initial trough, impacting the area for the second half of the workweek. A secondary trough is expected to rotate around the system and could bring some light snow to the CWA Wednesday night and early Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday) Issued at 604 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 21Z RAP forecast soundings continue to show some dry air below 800MB with the HRRR showing little reflectivity. So think chances for precip reaching the ground is to small to include a mention of weather in the forecast. Think VFR conditions should prevail with increasing mid level clouds overnight. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Wolters