Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/27/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1040 PM EDT Sat Mar 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail across the area through the rest of
the weekend and persist through the middle of next week. A cold
front will likely impact the area next Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Late evening satellite images indicated cloud free conditions
across the region. Given a clear sky, decreasing winds, and dry
conditions, late evening temperatures have cooled into the mid
to upper 50s inland to around 60 degrees along the coast.
Temperatures appear on track to range in the 40s across the
region by daybreak Sunday. A few sheltered areas could see
temperatures reach the upper 30s.
Early evening satellite images showed two plumes of smoke
drifting across the forecast area from central GA. Sfc
observations and near-sfc smoke guidance from the HRRR indicates
that most of the smoke will remain elevated. However, a few
spots may see or smell some smoke this evening and tonight. We
will watch trends this evening before adding smoke to the
forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday through Tuesday: Aloft, troughing will linger aloft on Sunday
followed by rising heights Monday and Tuesday as a ridge approaches
from the west. High pressure will prevail across the region at the
surface, with deep dry air in place Sunday and Sunday night. We will
see modest moistening Monday into Tuesday, with a bit of cloud cover
passing through the region. Temperatures will follow a warming
trend, with widespread upper 60s on Sunday, upper 60s to low 70s
Monday, and possibly a few locations in southeast Georgia reaching
the low 80s Tuesday. Sunday will be another breezy day, though not
as breezy as Saturday. Frequent gusts into the 20-25 mph range are
expected, with a few stronger gusts possible across southeast
Georgia. Sunday night will be the coolest night, with good
radiational cooling producing temperatures in the low to mid 40s and
possibly even a few upper 30s. Can`t rule out some degree of a frost
threat, mainly across interior portions of Allendale, Colleton,
Dorchester, and Berkeley counties. The forecast does not include
frost at this time, but it could need to be added with future
updates.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The forecast concern in the long term period is a cold front
expected to approach the area Wednesday night, and pass through
Thursday. Model agreement is good regarding timing, and we have
followed guidance with a band of 80% or higher rain chances on
Thursday. Thunderstorms will be possible with the front, and
some degree of a severe threat could accompany it as well.
Behind the front, the forecast should be dry, though there is
some question as to how far south and east the front clears.
Temperatures will be above normal through the period, with the
warmest day coming Wednesday with widespread low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the 0Z TAF period. Gusty west winds will gradually
decrease through this evening, with gust ending by midnight.
WNW winds will become gusty again on Sunday, gusts should favor
values between 20-25 kts.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail. Winds
will be breezy again Sunday, with frequent gusts up to or just
above 20 knots. A cold front could bring flight restrictions
Wednesday night and Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
A potent low-level jet will move through the area overnight. The
strongest winds will be this evening when 925 mb winds increase
to 35-40 kt over the nearshore waters. Latest high resolution
guidance and observation trends indicate that gusts around 35
kts will occur across the Charleston near shore waters this
evening, Gale Warning until midnight. Elsewhere, Small Craft
Advisories continuing through the night to highlight gusts
around 30 kts and seas up to 6 ft.
Sunday through Thursday: Elevated winds and seas will persist for
much of Sunday before diminishing into Monday. Small Craft Advisory
conditions will linger across the outer Georgia waters, expiring
Sunday afternoon. Winds will become 10 knots or less Monday and
Monday night, before a modest northeast surge Tuesday. Thereafter,
winds will steadily turn more southerly into Wednesday and Thursday.
As the a front approaches from the west, wind speeds will increase
Wednesday night and another round of Small Craft Advisories could be
needed.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Another round of low RH`s and breezy winds is expected Sunday.
Except for the immediate coastline, all of southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina should see minimum RH`s around 20
percent with an area of upper teens expected inland. While RH`s
will meet Red Flag Warning criteria, winds won`t be a gusty as
Saturday and will likely fall short of explicit criteria. Wind
gusts of 20-25 mph will be common, but could be a bit stronger
across southeast Georgia. Following coordination with
surrounding NWS offices and land management agencies, a Fire
Danger Statement has been issued for the entire area.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ330.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ352-354.
Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...BSH/JRL
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1047 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022
Cold the next couple days, then moderating temperatures. A major
storm system crossing the region will bring another round of
significant precipitation mid-week. Much of it could be wintry
across the north.
A slowly progressive and very energetic southern stream of a split
flow regime will dominate the weather across the CONUS during the
period. Partial phasing of the northern stream energy into a deep
eastern NOAM trough will drive cold air from high latitudes across
the area the next couple days, resulting in much below normal
temperatures. Readings will rebound for a couple days as the next
trough propagates east toward/across the area, then drop off again
late in the week. The system that will pass through the area mid-
week is expected to produce significant precipitation, so amounts
for the 7 day period are likely to be above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show deep
layer cyclonic flow across the western Great Lakes. The back edge
of the low stratus is shifting east over western Wisconsin, but
cold flow off Lake Superior will likely reinforce the cloud cover
over much of north-central and northeast WI. Light snow
showers/flurries should also diminish through the afternoon with
erosion of the shallow saturated layer. Some breaks in the
overcast may also develop in the downsloping areas of northeast WI
by the end of the afternoon. As high pressure builds into the
region from the northern Plains, light snow shower and cloud
trends are the focus of this forecast.
Tonight...Cold, cyclonic flow will continue though gusty
northwest winds will subside somewhat. Drier air advecting into
the region in the 850-700mb layer will likely cause erosion of the
cloud cover away from the higher terrain areas of north-central
WI, and most areas outside of the lake effect snow belt will
likely become clear overnight. With flow off western Lake
Superior, clouds and light lake effect snow showers will continue
over the north-central WI snow belt this evening with only a few
tenths of an inch of accumulations possible. Low temps will be
well below normal and range from the lower to middle single
digits over the northwoods to the middle teens along Lake
Michigan.
Sunday...The core of the cold airmass will retreat to the
northeast as low level winds back around to the west. The backing
of the winds will support clearing skies for any lingering cloud
cover over far northern Wisconsin. Most other locations will see
ample sunshine and chilly conditions. Highs will range from near
20 degrees near the U.P. border to the low 30s over the southern
Fox Valley.
.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022
A cold dry air mass, light winds, and clear skies will support
significant radiational cooling Sunday night. It`s still not too
hard to get mins below zero in the north at this time of year, so
opted to go with the bias-corrected blend of model temperatures in
the north--which was below zero and lower than the NBM. Used a
mix of the above and the NBM across the south where there isn`t a
snow cover.
The main forecast issue is handling the strong cyclone expected to
cross the area mid-week. Not surprisingly at this time range,
models are exhibiting run to run changes on the track of the
cyclone and timing/amount of precipitation. Thermal profiles are
a little less volatile. The air mass lingering across the area at
low levels will be cold and dry. Strong southwest flow at middle
levels will likely drive a warm layer aloft across the area. The
result is likely to be a significant wintry mix. The normal
gridded forecast development process favors getting primarily
rain and/or snow as the P-Type in that time frame. But forced in
quite a bit of FZRA/PL as those may be the most likely P-Types
across the north with the initial band of precipitation that
surges into the area. E-C WI will probably be warm enough for
mainly rain. There also could also be a rapid change-over to
heavy snow across much of the area as the strong dynamics race
north across the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022
Mostly clear skies will rule over much of the region during the
TAF period, save for far north-central Wisconsin where lake effect
clouds will continue. Gusty winds will continue across northern
Wisconsin and gradually diminish on Saturday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1018 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022
.UPDATE...
Evening update.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Mostly clear skies are currently being seen in the
area with some smoke due to fires in the area. Radiational
cooling with some light onshore flow will mean that patchy fog
will be possible tonight into tomorrow morning, mostly for
southern areas. With onshore flow continuing tomorrow, moisture
will increase in the area. Winds will increase during the day but
will be light tomorrow night. Therefore, patchy fog will be
possible tomorrow night into Monday morning as well.
Grids were adjusted to include the latest HRRR model run for
smoke as well as to adjust the fog potential.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022/
DISCUSSION...
For the 03/27/2022 0000 UTC TAF package.
AVIATION...
Other than some smoke and haze from the fires across the area that
may impact a few terminals, some light fog can be expected around
sunrise.
Otherwise winds will be the greatest forecast issue through the
period with gusty winds expected.
27
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022/
SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...
Forecast for the rest of the weekend and into Monday is generally
benign, as a low/mid level ridge slides out of SE TX and migrates
slowly EWD across the northern Gulf, deepening the southerly flow
already in place across the region. Initial MSTR return will be
fairly shallow in nature, with a very warm and dry layer noted on
forecast soundings above the intruding near SFC marine layer.
Given the influx of higher dewpoints and another night of decent
radiational cooling, could see some patchy fog formation across
the area, and have inserted such into the weather grid where the
greatest probabilities reside.
Temperature-wise, highs the next couple of days will continue to
climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lows the most impacted
by the returning MSTR, running 5 to 10 degrees warmer tonight vs.
last night, and creeping up a few degrees each subsequent night.
13
LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
The long term forecast kicks off with warm temps in the 80s and
strengthening southerly flow promoted by an upper level ridge and
tightening gradient respectively. With sustained winds of around
20 to 25 MPH forecast south of the I-10 corridor, its possible
that a Wind Advisory will be issued for Tuesday afternoon until
Wednesday evening. (At the most).
A shortwave trough will be moving out of the southwestern US and
into the southern plains on Tuesday. On Wednesday, several models
depict it making its way into parts of the mid MS valley area, then
going thru our CWA. With strong forcing ahead of the shortwave,
activity will begin across the western part of the CWA as early as
late Tuesday. Strong moisture advection will be preceding this
event, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and pwats nearing 1.5 to
1.9 in. There is a risk for severe weather as this trough sweeps
through the area on Wednesday. While the mode of severe weather has
not been determined as of yet, we could be looking at damaging wind
gusts and possibly an isolated tornado threat spawning from what
could be a QLCS moving across the area. However, it is not out of
the realm of possibility for some discrete supercells to form,
allowing for all modes of severe weather. In regards to flash
flooding, this appears to be less likely at the moment, with around
a quarter to an inch of rain expected.
A high pressure will be quick to build in behind that, with skies
clearing and comfortable temperatures until the end of the work
week. There is another trough expected to move over the Rockies and
into the area over the weekend, however the models are not in
agreement as to when activity will begin in our area. The Canadian
and EURO have showers starting as soon as late Friday, while the GFS
keeps us dry. Opted to run with the NBM, which gives 20 PoPs for
that time frame.
Stigger/87
MARINE...
A light to modest onshore flow will prevail through the weekend
and into Monday, increasing and becoming strong and gusty Tuesday
and Wednesday ahead of an approaching storm system and associated
frontal boundary. Small craft advisories may be needed. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms will precede the front on
Wednesday, with the boundary forecast to cross the coastal waters
Wednesday night, and an offshore flow following on Thursday.
13
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 51 82 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 55 79 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 51 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 58 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Forecast Discussion:
This afternoon, the area remains under northwest flow aloft with a
trough over the northeastern CONUS and a ridge over the
southwestern CONUS. All-in-all, it`s a nice afternoon to start the
weekend with temperatures mainly in the mid and upper 50`s under
sunny skies. A surface ridge will stay over the area through
tonight with slight pressure increases occurring. Temperatures
will cool to near 30 degrees tonight with the ridge in place. A
weak shortwave could ride southward through the northwest flow
tonight and early tomorrow, providing a brief period of mid-level
lift. The atmospheric profile is expected to be fairly dry in the
lower levels, but a few flurries/sprinkles could reach the
surface where mid-level lift and saturation are realized. Have
kept POPs less than 15 percent given limits due to dry air.
Attention then turns to Tuesday. A mid-level trough will work across
the southwestern CONUS with some mid-level divergence noted over
the region. A warm front looks to move north of the area by
midday Tuesday. WAA will allow temperatures to soar into the low
and mid 80s for most locations across the CWA. Moisture advection
will also occur with most deterministic models and some ensemble
model blends showing mid to upper 50 degree dewpoints across
eastern KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show up to 1000
J/kg of SBCAPE combined with between 40 and 50 kts of deep layer
shear. Given those parameters, there remains at least a slight
risk for a round of strong and severe thunderstorms Tuesday
evening. Where a dryline sets up will also impact fire weather
conditions, which will be more of a concern toward central KS.
There are many details to work out and certainly some changes
could occur in models as this timeframe approaches, but Tuesday
will be a day to watch closely for fire and severe potential.
A cooler air mass will surge into the area behind that initial
trough, impacting the area for the second half of the workweek. A
secondary trough is expected to rotate around the system and
could bring some light snow to the CWA Wednesday night and early
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022
21Z RAP forecast soundings continue to show some dry air below
800MB with the HRRR showing little reflectivity. So think chances
for precip reaching the ground is to small to include a mention of
weather in the forecast. Think VFR conditions should prevail with
increasing mid level clouds overnight.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Wolters