Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/26/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
250 PM PDT Fri Mar 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS...A cooling trend will continue tomorrow with clearer
weather along the coast. A low pressure system Sunday will bring
gusty southerly winds and rain, mostly to Mendocino and Lake
counties. Isolated showers and cool weather will linger into early
next week followed by a return to above average temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Warm, dry weather has continued in the interior this
afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. This is a few
degrees colder compared to yesterday. With air cooling aloft, the
marine layer was able to quickly lift and scatter out before noon
today, allowing coastal temperatures to warm to around 60. The
marine layer is expected to remain weak tonight with only thin,
patchy fog.
The upper level ridge currently over the area will continue to
gradually progress eastward into the weekend. This progression will
allow the cooling trend to continue in the interior, helping keep
the marine layer weak and scattered for Saturday. A deep cutoff low
centered over central California is projected to approach the coast
early Sunday. High clouds will start moving in ahead of the low by
late Saturday. An occluded front curving around the system will
bring gusty southerly winds (20 to 30 mph) along the coast and on
ridges, particularly in Mendocino and Lake counties.
Rain associated with the front currently looks heaviest Sunday
afternoon with scattered showers lingering into Monday. The NBM
shows 0.4 to 0.7 inches for Mendocino and Lake Counties with only
0.1 to 0.2 inches further North. NBM 4.1 however shows a 60 to 70%
chance of some southern totals reaching above 1 inch, but
deterministic models are consistently lower than 1 inch. This
difference likely reflects high sensitivity of rainfall amounts to
the low`s exact track. Over the next 24 hours, high resolution
models like the HRRR should bring better detail. Less rain is
expected to linger into Monday, though increasing instability (up to
around 100 J/Kg) could allow for isolated lightning, mostly in the
high elevations of eastern Lake and Mendocino. Though both the NAM
and GFS this afternoon are putting a stable layer around 600 mb,
which would put the equilibrium level below -20 C. Such a stable
layer, should it materialize, would reduce the overall thunder risk.
Instability and cold air advection behind the front will help bring
cool weather and generally little marine layer formation along the
coast early next week. Temperatures in the interior will cool
behind the front with mild highs in the low 60s. All cluster
ensemble members show at least weak high pressure building in mid
next week, bringing another round of mild temperatures and likely
some coastal stratus. About 30% of the clusters show the high
quickly breaking down into a weak trough, perhaps bringing more
light precipitation with other ensemble members showing more zonal
flow. Regardless, about 80% of the clusters show a stronger ridge
beginning to cover the area by next weekend. /JHW
&&
.AVIATION...A trough is slowly approaching the west coast. Surface
winds have started to switch to the south in the north. The
southerly winds will slowly across the area tonight. These southerly
winds and cooler temperatures will weaken the marine layer. This
should keep skies mainly VFR tonight. Saturday some mid level clouds
will move into the northern portion of the area, but these are
expected to be around 4,000 to 5,000 feet. MKK
&&
.MARINE...An upper level trough is approaching the area and this is
spreading southerly winds across the waters. They have not reached
Humboldt Bay or Buoy 46022 yet but are expected to tonight. It will
take until nearly Saturday afternoon for the remainder of the waters
to see southerly winds. The northwesterly swell has dropped to
around 4 feet at 12 seconds, but this is expected to increase
tonight to around 6 to 7 feet at 13 seconds. This swell is expected
to persist through the weekend.
Saturday night these southerly winds will start to pick up. Models
are showing an area of surface low pressure approaching the
Mendocino coast and then turning towards the south before it
approaches the coast. Models are showing a fairly big difference in
the strength of this low. The GFS has it bottoming out around 987 MB
while the NAM only drops it to around 993 MB. As a result the GFS is
putting 30KT while the NAM is slower and only showing 22 KT. A
growing number of models are trending toward the stronger solution
which would yield gale force gusts, but the ensembles show an even
wider range of possible solutions so confidence is not high enough
for a gale watch. These winds are expected to build wind driven
waves to around 9 feet at 7 seconds. In addition to these wind
driven waves there will be a mid period swell of 5 to 8 feet 12 to
14 seconds moving into the waters.
Models northerly winds will start to spread across the area as high
pressure builds in. These are expected to increase more slowly than
sometimes reaching 20 kt by late afternoon. Northerly winds are
expected to persist through the remainder of the week. Wednesday a
weak system passes by to the north, but this is only expected to
diminish the winds slightly in the morning. Thursday and Friday
northerly gales are possible. Thursday the ENP is showing another
northwest swell around 8 feet at 15 seconds building into the
waters. MKK
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1005 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022
Forecast going along fine. Narrow zone of clouds from Langdon to
Wahpeton is dropping slowly south...clear east of this area into
western MN, then west edge of stratocu around low to our east near
Roseau to Park Rapids. High pressure well to our northwest over
northern Saskatchewan with ridge western ND. So pressure gradient
will remain enough overnight to keep winds on the gusty side.
Colder air moving in as well with lows in the single digits to
teens on track.
UPDATE Issued at 703 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022
Wind advisory has expired on schedule at 00z. NW winds are slowly
diminishing and will continue to do so thru the night, but some
gusts 25 mph range still will occur as sfc gradient between
departing low and incoming high will remain tight. Skies clearing
as well but some clouds will hold tonight. Lows kept the same as
see no reason to change them at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022
Short term impacts continue to be related to strong winds this
afternoon, with a decreasing trend through early evening (northwest
to southeast).
Shortwave trough is transitioning east, while tight surface pressure
gradient and deep post frontal mixing has continued to support
strong winds across our CWA. There has been a decreasing trend over
parts of the Devils Lake Basin, and this matches where the 850 MB
wind max on RAP is also showing signs of decreasing, so while mixing
is still deep winds may not be as strong aloft and advisory type
conditions may improve this afternoon northwest to southeast (a bit
earlier than current advisory timing). Even where winds aloft in the
40-45kt range linger (our south and east) loss of daytime heating
and low level decoupling should put an end to stronger winds. I
don`t want to cancel just a few counties early at this stage unless
we start to see a much larger downward trend, but I could see us
trimming some counties early as winds aloft continue to decrease in
our north. Snow showers continue to be reported near Lake of the
Woods which is close to the the mid level trough axis, however a
drier/more subsidence air mass aloft behind this axis is starting to
shift east and any of these lingering showers should start to
dissipate by late afternoon.
Colder temperatures aloft and mostly clear skies late tonight should
result in colder temperatures ranging from the single digits to
teens for lows, and highs may struggle to warm out of the teens
across our north of Saturday (may still remain near freezing in our
southwest aided by sunny skies/exposed dark soils/heating. Arctic
high pressure is shown to slide south over our region by Saturday
night and even colder temperatures become possible, with colder
locations in our north and northeast possibly dropping below zero.
There is a strong consensus (based on NBM 25/75th ranges) that
regardless of cloud redevelopment most locations will at least be in
the lower teens to single digits by early Sunday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022
Main challenge for this forecast period is the potential for a
springtime winter storm near midweek.
For Sunday into Monday...Cool surface high pressure is in place
across the region with lighter winds in a weaker pressure gradient.
Meanwhile, the upper level pattern indicates northwest flow aloft as
the upper ridge is in place over the intermountain west. Return flow
kicks in late Sunday into early Monday as the surface high pressure
shifts east. The upper level ridge also builds and increased
thicknesses support a warming trend to start the week.
By Tuesday...a pattern shift begins to take place as the upper
levels suggest more of a split flow regime. The southern stream digs
in over the southwestern part of CONUS and the northern stream shows
digging as a stronger short wave moves across Montana. The
expectation is that by Wednesday, southwest flow aloft becomes the
predominant feature, and a series of upper level disturbances will
induce cyclogenesis along the main boundary.
Although models are in general agreement regarding the placement and
movement of this system, the wild card remains the interaction
between the northern and southern streams in determining the system
track and resultant precipitation type. For now, the ECMWF and
Canadian models are trending closer with respect to placement of the
features, and would tend to favor lower precipitation amounts.
However, the GFS tracks a bit faster and favors a larger
precipitation shield.
Something that should not be overlooked is the persistence of the
system over the Great Lakes. As the upper level trof becomes more
negatively tilted as the storm progresses, expect the system to
linger in the region longer and the potential for significant
precipitation amounts.
While reasonably confident of the evolution of the system, the
bottom line is that the event is still several days away and will
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022
NW winds to diminish but remain in the 15-25 kt range much of
tonight and more north 12 to 25 kts Saturday. Scattered to ocnl
BKN CU this evening becoming predominate later tonight and
Saturday.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$
UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Riddle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1041 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a digging
strong shortwave moving southeast over eastern Minnesota and into
western Wisconsin early this afternoon. An arcing band of rain and
snow is moving east and across northeast WI ahead of the
shortwave. Meanwhile a cold front is moving into eastern
Wisconsin, with gusty northwest winds, snow showers, and colder
temps occurring behind the front. As low level lapse rates steepen
in the cold advection zone, a few relatively stronger snow
showers are possible south of Highway 29 over central Wisconsin this
afternoon that could rapidly drop visibilities to 1/2 mile and
produce gusts in excess of 35 mph. Warm surface temps in the
middle will likely mitigate the brief higher precip rates on area
roadways. Focus of this forecast is precip trends and potential
impacts, including from the gusty winds.
Tonight...With loss of daytime heating and forcing from the
shortwave passing southeast of the area, snow shower activity will
be diminishing early in the evening. However, the deformation
zone on the north and northwest flank of the upper cyclone will
return south and likely provide northern and eastern WI with light
rain and snow. Accumulations should remain minor, and remain up
to an inch across the northwoods. The falling temperatures below
freezing along with residual liquid on roadways from todays precip
could lead to slippery spots developing on untreated roadways. In
addition, northwest winds will become strong and gusty with gusts
to 35 mph. With conditions supportive for ice shoves on the east
shore of Lake Winnebago, will continue to highlight the potential
in the HWO.
Saturday...Gusty northwest winds in cold advection will continue
into Saturday. Most precip should have ended across the region
with the exception of far northern WI in the lake effect snow belt and
possibly into east- central WI. Otherwise, widespread of cloud
cover in the morning will give way to increasing sunshine from
southwest to northeast. Temps will be well below normal and range
from the middle 20s to middle 30s.
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022
A fairly broad upper ridge will keep quiet conditions in place for
the first few days of the extended period. As this ridge
progresses across central CONUS, an upper trough is expected to
dig into the desert Southwest finally culminating in a fairly
strong weather system that could bring plenty of precipitation
back to the region in the middle to late next week.
Saturday night through Monday...Northeast flow aloft will bring
in a period of quiet conditions in terms of precipitation, but
winds could remain a bit gusty. A fairly tight pressure gradient
aloft will keep some stronger winds in place above the surface,
which could mix down at times through Sunday night. At the
surface, high pressure and a fairly cool air mass will keep
temperatures below normal Sunday, before gradually coming back to
normal by Monday as return flow increases. High temperatures
Sunday will be in the 20s and lower 30s before moderating to
mostly 30s and few lower 40s on Monday.
Rest of the forecast...Models still differ on how exactly to
handle the system for next week, but most have some precipitation
developing late Tuesday as isentropic upglide begins with the
surface warm front to our south. Overrunning precipitation is then
expected Tuesday into Wednesday as the main surface low comes
northwards into the Great Lakes region. This will be a relatively
broad and slow moving system, with wrap around precipitation
continuing through the end of the work week. Stuck with the
blended solution for now, which would bring a mix and snow into
the region Tuesday into Wednesday, before a wider spread of
precipitation develops, with snow towards northern Wisconsin and
rain towards southern Wisconsin. Depending on the details of the
track, the p-types may end up looking fairly similar to this past
Tuesday and Wednesday. Stay tuned!.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022
A strong upper-level system will bring MVFR ceilings and
scattered snow showers to the area during the overnight hours.
The snow showers are expected to end late tonight, with improving
flying conditions expected Saturday through Sunday.
Strong northwest winds could gust to 20 to 30 knots at times
overnight. Winds will remain breezy on Saturday but gusts will
subside somewhat during the afternoon.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1023 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022
Temperatures are still in the upper 30s at this hour and
precipitation remains mostly rain. Cold air will be pouring in
overnight, with readings dropping below freezing across the bulk
of the area between roughly 3 am and 8 am. Still expecting the
rain showers to change to snow showers, with some locally heavy
bursts possible under the upper low which tracks across srn Lwr
MI overnight.
Some areas will see an inch of snow accumulation by morning, even
well inland from Lk MI due to the lift related to the upper low.
It would not be too surprising if we get a few reports of more
than an inch as latest HRRR guidance is suggesting up to 1/3 inch
of QPF from 06Z to 12Z. That bullseye is actually located around
Lansing where upper low lift may be maximized overnight (NE quad,
pivot point). Other QPF maxima are noted in Mason/Oceana Counties
as well as in Van Buren Co where NW flow lake enhancement will be
in play.
Expect slick/slippery travel to develop late tonight due to the
combination of snow showers and the drop in temps, and will
highlight this change in a Special Weather Statement.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022
- Strong Cold front brings rain to snow then snow accumulates
There are two cold fronts heading our way. The first one comes
through early this evening with an area of rain showers. This is
followed around midnight with a stronger cold front that changes
to rain to snow and brings in some of the coldest air for this
late in the season since 2015 (high high of 31 on 27th of March
2015 at GRR and MKG, 30 at LAN, 32 at AZO) .
Anyway this is a closing off 500 to 300 mb low and is nearly
closed off at 700 mb. Due to the dynamics of this system, even
through it does not have Gulf moisture the strength of the lift
will help make up for that so we should still see between .1 and
.3" of QPF in about 12 hours as this comes through this evening.
The heaviest QPF will be on the northeast side of the track of 700
mb sort of closed low, which would be east of US-131. There is
impressive lift in the DGZ on that side of the system tonight.
It will be to warm for snow the start but it should cool off
enough by say 9 to 10 pm for snow to mix in with the rain. The
secondary cold front brings the below freezing air to the surface
and that of course changes all the precipitation to snow. Of
course by the a lot of the QPF already occurred. Even so there
should be enough moisture left to bring around an inch of snow to
a good part of the CWA by morning. Areas north and east of GRR
could see up to 3 inches (better lift and in colder air sooner).
Once the system snow is done we then get lake effect snow showers
until the deep cold air exits the area. That does not happen until
Sunday afternoon or so. This will mean, on Saturday and maybe to
some extent even Sunday afternoon we will have convective
instability. It is more obvious on Saturday through. We actually
have EQL near 5000 ft (which would be meaningless for summer
convection) but when your -15c at 850 you will get vigorous snow
showers into the evening. That will impact the entire CWA. We will
also get the favored northwest flow snow showers Saturday night
into Sunday morning. That could bring a few inches into Van
Buren, Allegan, Mason and Ocean Counties (Muskegon typically
misses out on the snow from this wind direction).
- An Unusually Cold Airmass will chill our weekend and bring snow
Helping high temperatures below freezing for high temperatures
after the 25th of March is unusual. Since 1980, between the 25th
and the first of April GRR, LAN, MKG and AZO have had had highs
below freezing 3% of the days in that time period. Again the last
time was 2015 on the 27th, prior that we have there was a 3 day
period from the 23rd to the 25th with highs in the 20s. You then
have to go back to 2001 for the next event. So again, this is very
unusual for this time of year. However the models have been very
consistent with forecasting 850 temperature below -12 all day
Sunday and keeping the 1000 mb temperature below freezing. My 20
years of data at GRR tell me if the 1000 mb temperature is below
freezing at GRR, the air temperature any time of the day or night
or any time of the year will also be below freezing. The NAM has
the 1000 mb temperature below freezing at GRR from 1 am Saturday
through 8 am Tuesday. So, yes we have a good chance of having
highs at or below freezing Saturday and Sunday, Monday is even
possible!
- Next system is the middle of next week
Currently we have parade of 500 mb closes upper lows over the
north Pacific from Asia to North America (actually there are 3 of
them). The next in the parade move onshore of North America late
in the weekend. This system gets out into the central Plains
midweek. Here is the problem through, the cold air has all it can
do be dislodged. That means when that system gets far enough east
to bring us southerly flow from the Gulf (early Wednesday morning)
we get a large area of freezing rain over most of Michigan (both
the GFS and ECMWF for several model runs now). If that is not
enough, then the surface system deepens rapidly as it charges
north to northern MN on Wednesday (getting to below 980 mb). That
means we get a good surge of warm and moist Gulf air. This could
mean strong to severe storms Wednesday PM or early Thursday. Of
course the cold air comes back behind the system so we could see
more snow. This system is nearly a week out so we have time to
watch it but it would seem we could see several days of impactful
weather from this. Precipitation amounts should be on the order of
an inch so that could be an issue too.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 757 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022
MVFR generally prevailing tonight as rain begins mixing with snow
by 03Z then changing to all snow toward 06Z. However occasional
IFR conditions will occur, and some LIFR vsbys cannot be ruled
out either after 06Z in any of the heavier bursts of snow. Winds
gusting up to 30 kts out of the west.
Snow showers lingering on Saturday and again MVFR is expected to
be the predominate condition. However brief IFR vsbys still
possible if/when any heavier snow showers pass through. Winds will
continue gusting to 30kts, out of the northwest.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022
As all that cold air heads into this area with all that mid level
dynamic support you just know there will be gale force winds over
Lake Michigan (good model support) so we have a gale warning for
tonight into Saturday afternoon. Note that the system midweek has
much storm force winds forecast with it!
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meade
DISCUSSION...WDM
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1101 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2022
Lightning has been occurring upstream this evening, as far
southeast now as Owen County. The NAM shows surface to 625 mb LI`s
(around the -20C level) being negative where it`s been happening,
with the negative LI`s potentially making it into the northeast
part of the JKL forecast area shortly. Have added a slight chance
of thunder. With brisk flow aloft and a cold atmosphere, have also
included wording for gusty winds and small hail.
UPDATE Issued at 852 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2022
Have blended evening obs into the forecast, without any
appreciable change.
UPDATE Issued at 544 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2022
Light precip has already started to break out, so have moved up
the mention of precip earlier in the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2022
Latest RAP analysis shows one weak shortwave has moved through the
area and is heading off towards the Mid-Atlantic region, while
another wave is starting to pivot down from the upper midwest. A
surface low is just north of the upper Great Lakes, with a frontal
boundary stretching down through the midwest. Overcast and cool this
afternoon across Eastern KY with temps generally in the middle 40s.
W/SW winds will continue to be breezy with occasional gusts of
around 20-25 mph.
The cold front will approach the area late tonight and cross the
area overnight into Saturday morning, while the upper level
shortwave will pivot down to northern sections of the OH valley
overnight. Scattered showers are initially expected late tonight and
overnight, with some snow starting to mix in as the colder air
filters in. Overnight low temps will be in the lower to middle 30s.
The upper level wave will continue moving SE on Saturday towards the
Mid Atlantic, while a secondary cold front will approach from the
NW. Scattered rain/snow showers will continue during the morning
into the afternoon, especially over far E/NE sections of the
forecast area. Most areas won`t see any meaningful snowfall
accumulations, however a light dusting or so is possible at
locations over 2k ft in elevation. W/NW winds will also be gusty on
Saturday, especially from mid morning through the afternoon hours.
Expect gusts of 20-30 mph, with some higher gusts at the ridges.
Went a bit cooler than guidance for high temps, with afternoon highs
in the upper 30s to lower 40s (mid 40s near the TN line).
Precip comes to an end by late Saturday, although some lingering
stubborn flurries may last a bit longer over eastern Pike. The
secondary cold front will start to cross the area overnight. W/NW
winds will relax to 5-10 mph overnight, but over most areas will
stay up enough to prevent any frost formation Sunday morning. There
will however, be a chance for some patchy frost in some of the
sheltered valleys. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 407 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2022
Models are in decent agreement when it comes to the overall pattern
through the extended, especially in the early portion of the
extended. We begin Sunday with an amplified pattern across the CONUS.
East Kentucky lies under northwesterly flow aloft as a trough sits
over eastern Canada and New England, and a large ridge dominates
across much of the western half of the CONUS. The western ridge
edges eastward into the early part of next week as a trough, with an
embedded low, digs down over the Pacific coast. As is typical, more
differences begin to emerge later in the period around the middle of
the week. The amplified trough works across the Plains and
Mississippi Valley, before moving over our region near the end of
the period. Deterministic models do vary some around the details of
smaller scale features and timing, but the overall pattern is fairly
well agreed upon, and has support from ensemble means. At the
surface, the main feature of interest is the system that organizes
over the Plains, supported by the deep trough aloft. A warm front
gets lifted across the area through late Tuesday, leaving us solidly
in the warm sector Wednesday. As the system travels northeast
towards the Great Lakes Thursday, it`s associated cold front is
dragged across the region, before it eventually exits late Thursday.
Similar to the upper level pattern, this overall setup is fairly
well agreed upon, but the details, specifically timing, still show
some variability within deterministic solutions.
Regarding sensible weather, we start the period dry, but also colder
than normal as we remain under the persistent northwest flow aloft.
Highs Sunday and Monday range generally from the mid/upper 40s to
low 50s. Lows Sunday night sink down into the low to mid 20s. Lows
don`t drop quite as much monday night, but are still chilly in the
low to mid 30s. As the warm front crosses the area Tuesday, we see a
bit of a warm-up and a possible gradient in highs across the area.
However, where this gradient sets up will depend on the speed of the
warm front, which has yet to be nailed down. We could also see some
precipitation with this warm front Tuesday, with the best chances in
our north and east. Stayed near the NBM, but will note the GFS was a
bit more bullish with the PoPs with this front, so will monitor
with future updates. Temperatures take a substantial jump Wednesday
as our area see`s strong southwest flow while we sit in the system`s
warm sector. Our chance for more moderate rainfall comes with the
approach of the cold front late Wednesday night. The best of the
precip moves through by Thursday morning, but rain chances linger
into the day. Have included thunder for portions of the area
Thursday afternoon as of now, but how the timing of the front works
out could work to limit how much instability and thunderstorm
activity we see. Much of the area then sees drier and cooler
conditions behind the front`s passage to finish out the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 852 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2022
Largely MVFR conditions (due to ceilings) were present at the
start of the period. The main exception was in the southwest
portion of the forecast area around KSME and KEKQ, where low end
VFR ceilings prevailed. Very light rain and showers were also
ongoing. The status quo is expected until late tonight. After
about 06z, Clouds will decrease, especially over the Cumberland
Basin. Further northeast, ceilings will remain, but will rise.
Showers will also become more sparse. The end result will be
improvement to VFR area wide by around 10Z, with VFR conditions
then persisting for the remainder of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
957 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022
Isolated to scattered showers continue across the Ohio Valley
underneath the left exit region of a 500mb speed max. Very cold
500mb layer (observed soundings between -30C and -20C) has resulted
in steep low level lapse rates, combined with a pocket of 100 J/kg
of MUCAPE across central IN, has allowed some scattered convection
near IND to bring increased winds down to the sfc.
RAP analysis suggests this CAPE and a pocket of 35kt Effective Bulk
Shear will advect across northern KY in the next few hours, which
could result in a few instances of lightning flashes and gusty
showers. Decided to increased thunder grids to 10% across our
northern CWA, though currently leaving weather type as just rain
showers.
By tomorrow morning, lingering showers across our northern half of
the CWA could become a light rain/snow mix, but no impacts are
anticipated at this time.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022
Things are pretty quiet across the CWA at this hour, outside of a
few blips on radar dropping in from SW Indiana. Expect steady W
winds through the remainder of the day, with some gusts up in the 20
to 25 mph range at times. Given extensive cloud cover and the steady
cold advection, highs are only expected in the upper 40s and low 50s
across the area.
Water vapor imagery currently shows a couple of disturbances of
note. The first is over eastern TN, and about to lose any influence
over our area. Perhaps a very light shower could still affect our SE
for another hour or two. Otherwise, the main shortwave of interest
is up over Minnesota at this hour, and will quickly dive into our
area by later this evening and into the overnight. Ahead of this
feature, we`ll see scattered to numerous rain showers develop on
steepening lapse rates. We may see some small hail with some of the
evening and overnight showers due to fairly steep low level lapse
rates, and freezing levels only around 2500-3000 feet. The first
wave of showers from roughly 8 PM to 2 AM EDT, should all be rain
with surface temps still in the low to mid 40s. However, as we get
toward Saturday morning, additional scattered showers across our NE
CWA could be a rain/snow mix, or all snow for a period through mid
to late morning.
The rest of Saturday looks dry and cloudy for most of the area.
Given an expansive stratus deck and gusty NW surface winds (good
cold advection continues), we`ll see highs not getting out of the
40s for much of the area. In fact, look for low to mid 40s for most.
Our far SW could be on the outside of the cloud shield, and have a
better shot at more sun and highs in the 50s.
.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 1:55 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022
Saturday Night - Monday
Upper northwest flow will push a large surface high from Canada
towards the Ohio Valley. This positions the CWA in the path of the
high`s anticyclonic winds, resulting in cold air advection and cool
temperatures. Sunday and Monday highs will only reach the mid 40s to
mid 50s. On the bright side, expecting lots of sunshine on Sunday. A
few more clouds arrive for Monday.
Monday Night - Tuesday Night
As the aforementioned surface high passes east of the CWA, surface
winds become easterly as a 35-40 knot 850mb low level jet advances
towards the area from the southwest. Isentropically lifting is
expected to cause light precipitation to begin expanding over the
CWA from the southwest.
On Tuesday, winds begin veering towards the south which will begin
advecting warmer air through the Lower Ohio Valley. Broken cloud
cover will remain over much of the northern areas of the CWA, but in
southern Kentucky, where more sunshine is expected, temperatures
could reach into the low 70s. Expected a strong temperature gradient
across the CWA as the northern Bluegrass region may only see the
upper 40s for highs.
Tuesday night, low temperatures will likely only drop 10 degrees or
less from daytime highs due to ongoing warm air advection and cloud
cover.
Wednesday - Friday
Wednesday, winds out of the south lift temperatures to the upper 70s
to low 80s across the CWA under scattered cloud cover, but the nice
warm temperatures won`t last as a strong cold front approaches
southern Indiana and central Kentucky from the west. Currently,
expecting the front to arrive along the western side of the CWA
during the evening hours. This arrival time will help reduce the
severe weather potential as the system moves eastward across the
CWA. Model soundings show strong unidirectional winds from the
south, but as nighttime falls, instability becomes more elevated.
Low level helicity remains strong, so timing will be an important
element as severe weather will be more favorable with an earlier
arrival. Behind the front, cooler temperatures arrive for Friday.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022
Ceilings are hovering around 3500-4000 ft this evening, and we`ll
see ceilings lift and scatter out overnight. Expect VFR conditions
for the overnight, with only some very light rain chances at SDF and
LEX before 06z, but no vis/cig restrictions are expected. Westerly
surface winds remain gusty overnight, with wind gust speeds upwards
of 25kts possible.
By tomorrow morning, another VFR stratus deck will move across
SDF/LEX which may result in a few more very light VCSH, but not
confident enough to put in TAFs at this time. Expect slightly
stronger WNW wind gusts tomorrow afternoon, possibly closer to 30kts
at times.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...CJP
Short Term...BJS
Long Term...KDW
Aviation...CJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
515 PM PDT Fri Mar 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather today through Sunday. A storm system will
impact the region Sunday night into Monday with widespread
rainfall and gusty winds. Dry and seasonable weather returns
Tuesday through Friday of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 2:03 PM PDT Friday...Stubborn marine layer
has kept temperatures fairly cool around the Bay Area today with
readings in the upper 50s and 60s. Inland locations and hills have
warmed into the 70s with some lower 80s far interior Central
Coast. Onshore gradients remain in place and with the shallow
inversion layer would expect low clouds to spread into the valleys
once again tonight.
Nice weekend in store for the Bay Area with plenty of sunshine and
seasonably mild temperatures for Saturday afternoon outdoor
activities.
The incoming upper low will first makes its presence known on
Sunday with a noted cooling trend as onshore winds increase along
with increasing cloud cover. Inland areas will notice the cooling
trend with highs in the 60s to lower 70s regionwide.
Long talked about rain should arrive sometime late Sunday evening
or around midnight. In a normal winter this type of storm would
hardly be noteworthy but after a very dry start to 2022 it has the
potential to be the wettest system since the start of the year.
It appears a well organized band of rain will initially pass over
the region on Sunday night, exiting the region around the time of
the Monday morning commute. Enough rain expected to bring wet
roads and impact the commute. However this initial rain band will
be fairly fast moving and should mitigate even nuisance flooding.
All attention then on the exact track of the upper low. The last
two NAM runs keep it farther south heading towards San Luis
Obispo. This scenario keeps the best instability and moisture
farther south. The global models have a slightly farther north
trajectory. Either way the best instability will be focused from
around the Santa Cruz mountains southward. So unlike most storms
the heaviest rain will not be in the North Bay this time but
rather the Santa Cruz mountains and more likely the Santa Lucia
range where 1-2 inches of rainfall will be possible. Totals of
0.25-0.50 for the valleys are currently forecast. During peak
heating on Monday, in association with the cold unstable low will
have to monitor for t-storms which we currently have forecast.
Biggest threat would likely be small hail which can quickly become
problematic on area roadways.
Drying trend Tuesday through Friday of next week and likely into
next weekend. Some hints in the long range for another trough and
possible rain chances by April 4th or so.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 5:15 PM PDT Friday...For the 00Z TAFs. VFR
conditions prevail region-wide this evening as low clouds have
completely dissipated. In addition, breezy onshore winds prevail
before will gradually diminish late in the evening. Given the
dissipation of stratus, even along the coast, do expect a much
later return of stratus tonight into early Saturday morning.
Additionally, low ceilings/visibilities will be less widespread
during the TAF period with the greatest probability of
MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions mainly around the San Francisco Bay Area
and Monterey Bay terminals. Expecting conditions to improve around
or after 18Z Saturday over areas that do experience low
ceilings/visibilities. Meanwhile, look for an increase in high
level clouds as a weather system begins to approach from the west-
northwest.
Vicinity of KSFO...Breezy W/NW winds will persist through the
evening before diminishing slightly overnight. VFR conditions are
also likely to prevail through the evening with increased
probabilities of MVFR/IFR conditions developing between 09Z-12Z
Saturday. Conditions improve by late morning or early afternoon on
Saturday along with an increase in W/NW winds.
KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions to prevail through the
evening as low clouds have dissipated, even off of the coast.
Additionally, moderate onshore winds will prevail before
diminishing late in the evening. Do expect stratus to redevelop
late tonight and into early Saturday morning resulting in
MVFR/IFR and potentially LIFR conditions. Following closer to the
HRRR and HREF guidance showing the latter return, generally around
09Z given current conditions. Onshore winds increase and stratus
dissipates around or after 18Z Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...as of 05:15 PM PDT Friday...Breezy northwest winds
persisting through the evening but start to diminish overnight.
Winds will stay strongest near coastal jet locations and through
coastal gaps overnight. A prevailing light to moderate mid-period
westerly to northwesterly swell will continue through the weekend.
The next chance for rain will be on Sunday as a low pressure
system moves toward the eastern Pacific. The system will bring
southerly winds over the waters with strong gusts as well as the
potential for gale force gusts near the immediate coastline.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 9 PM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 9 PM
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: RGass
MARINE: McCorkle
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1006 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will pass through the area Saturday
into Saturday night, followed by a polar cold frontal passage
on Sunday. High pressure slowly builds in from the west early
next week. The high weakens Wednesday as a warm front approaches
from the southwest. The associated low will affect the region
into Friday with a cold front passage.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Any shower activity overnight is forecast to remain north and
west of the area with a dissipating cold front. Aloft, an upper
low over the Midwest drops into the Ohio Valley by morning.
Ahead of it, weak upper level ridging may for a time cause
clouds to dissipate before the next round approaches toward
daybreak.
The area will remain in a westerly flow due to a broad area of
low pressure across eastern Canada. WSW winds will generally
remain at or less than 10 mph.
The combination of lingering clouds and winds staying up in the
boundary layer tonight will lead to less of a spatial range in
low temperatures. Used a combination of NBM and MET guidance,
ranging from the mid 30s for parts of the Lower Hudson Valley
and interior Northeast NJ to the mid 40s within NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A longwave trough remains over the Northeast for the first half
of the weekend. One positive vorticity max along an upper level
low moves into the area Saturday and then east of the area
Saturday night. At the surface, another cold front moves across
the area Saturday and then east of the area Saturday night.
Another cold front will be approaching from the north and west
by early Sunday.
With cyclonic flow aloft, expect mostly cloudy conditions much
of the time period. Rain showers will be scattered to numerous
at times Saturday, highest chances late morning into early
evening hours. There will be some weak instability during the
afternoon into early evening hours of Saturday as well so
isolated embedded thunderstorms are also forecast.
Model BUFKIT soundings also convey steepening low to mid level
lapse rates. With moisture and narrow CAPE in the -10 to -20
degree C layer of model soundings, there will be potential for
small hail and also gusty winds. Gusts up to near 40 mph will be
possible with some thunderstorms. HRRR model indicates this
potential also.
Precipitation tapers off by late Saturday evening into
overnight. With cold air advection, rain showers could mix with
snow for interior parts of the region during this timeframe
before all precipitation ends.
Highs Saturday were taken from NBM and subtracted one degree,
ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s for much of the region.
Lows Saturday night were a combination of NBM as well as
consensus of MOS and raw model data with some more weight
towards consensus of raw model data. The lows range from lower
30s for interior areas of northeast NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and
Southwest CT to mid to upper 30s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A longwave trough remains across the eastern United States
Sunday and slowly moves to the northeast through the midweek
period as a highly amplified ridge builds slowly to the east. An
embedded shortwave moves into the longwave trough for Sunday as
a polar surface cold front crosses the region behind low
pressure remaining across eastern Canada and the Maritimes.
Guidance continues to show a highly anomalous cold airmass
moving into the region behind the front Sunday night. With the
shortwave Sunday, and a cold pool moving through the northeast,
increasing low level lapse rates, have continued with the
chance and slight chance probabilities for snow showers and/or
rain showers across the region. Where probabilities are below
15% have a mention of flurries and/or sprinkles. The vort max
and tough axis pass to the east early Sunday evening and end the
chances for precipitation. The Arctic airmass moves into the
region Sunday night and a reinforcing cold pool moves into the
area for Monday. Temperatures at 850mb fall to -15C to -18C
during Monday. Guidance has trended colder for Sunday night
through Monday night, and the NBM has also trended colder, with
the NBM 10% just a couple to 3 degrees below mean. With the MET
and MAV guidance trending colder have leaned toward the NBM 10%
and MET for temperatures Sunday night through Monday night.
Temperatures Sunday night will be nearing record lows across a
few locations, however, not expecting any at this time. With the
peak of the airmass Monday and Monday night record low highs and
record low minimums are possible. See the climate section for
record temperatures.
The airmass quickly moves east Tuesday with a warming trend
setting up that remains through the week. The upper ridge moves
slowly east through the end of the week with a warm front
approaching Wednesday and moving north late in the day or into
Wednesday evening. There is some uncertainty with the timing of
the warm front as the associated surface low remains well to the
west and northwest. The area becomes warm sectored for Thursday
before the cold front with the low approaches and moves through
Friday. For Wednesday through Friday have used the NBM
temperatures and probabilities. At this time instability and CAPE
are limited with the cold front so have not included thunder.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A series of cold fronts will pass through the area Saturday
into Saturday night,
Mainly a VFR forecast with a chance of MVFR with showers late
Saturday morning through the afternoon with an approaching cold
front. Best time looks to be 18-22Z. Spotty showers may linger
into the early evening. There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms
beyond 18Z but not confident enough in occurrence to include in
the TAFs at this time. Any TS could produce local and brief
40kt wind gusts and small hail.
W/SW winds 10 kt or less overnight, increasing to 10 to 15 kt by
late morning/early afternoon with gusts around 20 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments not expected overnight, but possible with the timing
of rain showers and MVFR ceilings on Saturday. Isolated
thunderstorm possible in the afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday Night...Mainly VFR. W/SW around 10kt G15-20kt in the
evening.
.Sunday through Tuesday...VFR. W/NW winds G20-25kt.
.Wednesday...Mainly VFR. MVFR conditions possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Minor adjustments were made to the winds and gusts for current
conditions. Seas were unchanged.
SCA remains up on the ocean overnight mainly due to elevated
ocean seas with WSW gusts around 20kt. SCA will then remain up
for Saturday for the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet with seas
remaining elevated. Strengthening west winds Saturday night
will bring conditions back to all ocean waters.
Non-ocean zones also on Saturday night could occasionally get
25 kt gusts especially late at night into early Sunday.
Small craft advisory conditions will be likely on the ocean
waters Sunday with a strong and gusty northwesterly flow between
low pressure across the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure to
the west of the waters. Gusts to SCA levels will be developing
on the non ocean waters Sunday afternoon. Small craft conditions
will likely continue on the forecast waters into late Monday
night and then slowly diminish from west to east through Tuesday
as the low moves slowly east and high pressure builds toward
the waters. Sub SCA conditions are then expected on all the
waters Tuesday night into Wednesday as weak high pressure
remains in the area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Any rain showers will be quick moving into tonight as well as
Saturday into Saturday night. No hydrologic impacts are
expected through the middle of next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record low minimum temperatures for Monday, March 28
NYC 13 1923
JFK 22 1982
LGA 23 1982
EWR 19 1982
ISP 18 1990
BDR 17 1966
Record low high temperatures for Monday, March 28
NYC 34 1893
JFK 37 1959
LGA 36 1966
EWR 35 1937
ISP 35 1966
BDR 35 1966
Record low minimum temperatures for Tuesday, March 29
NYC 10 1923
JFK 26 1959
LGA 25 1959
EWR 23 1959
ISP 22 1982
BDR 19 1966
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DW